Evgeny Abramyan

professor

CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

A new book by a Russian Physicist about our future

What awaits us? Escalating contradictions and crises or a turn toward peaceful and sustainable development? How long do civilizations last?

Analysis of world situation and prospects for the future

Fourth edition Moscow 2009

The author of this book, Evgeny Aramovich Abramyan, is a professor, a doctor of technical sciences, and a winner of a State Prize of the USSR. He emerged among the founders of several innovative areas of work in nuclear technology in Russia. In the 1950s and 1960s, he was among the enthusiasts who came to create Akademgorodok a center of research science in the heart of Siberia. Evgeny Abramyan is the developer of 100 inventions and author of several books on applied physics. He headed research teams at the Kurchatov Atomic Energy Institute, Budker Nuclear Physics Institute and Institute of High Temperatures of the USSR Academy of Sciences. In the 1960s, he created the Department of Applied Physics at the Novosibirsk State Technical University and headed the main department of that university. Abramyan is the author of a number of articles on political science and globalistics, and recently several editions of the book The Destiny of Civilization

Abstract
This book discusses the evolution of civilization and the dangers that emerged in the 20th century: Environmental pollution, depletion of the planet's natural resources, global military conflicts, rapid population growth and the increasing gap in the quality of life in different countries. Factors working to increase these dangers, including the imperfection of human consciousness and the development of increasingly destructive weapons, are analyzed. The book addresses the modern day's most acute problem the growing multifaceted crisis of civilization and proposes possible ways to overcome it. It will be useful for a wide circle of readers and can be used as a supplementary source of information by those who study sociology, futurology, psychology, history, conflict resolution and other human sciences.

Translated from Russian by Alexander Kondorsky Cover page created by Igor Shelkovsky

This book is protected as a title of intellectual property. Certificate No. 8501 of April 27, 2005

ISBN 5990062117

Master Quotes

"We, the members of the Club of Rome, are convinced that the future of humankind is not determined once and for all, and that it is possible to avoid present and foreseeable catastrophes -when they are the result of human selfishness or of mistakes made in managing world affairs. ... We believe that every human being can choose to take charge of his or her own future rather than be a victim of events..." From the Declaration of the Club of Rome "The progress in science is faster than that in the human power to comprehend it... Now people are required to mobilize all their strengths to become adequate to the new powers in their possession, and to make use of these new powers with wisdom, self-restraint and dignity, for the sake of building a sensible and splendid future." Robert Jungk, Austrian journalist and politicalscientist "Of the possible future scenarios, most of which are disastrous, humankind has to find and choose the one which would be best suitable for survival and sustainable development." Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vyacheslav Styopin

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Table of Contents
Introduction Chapter 1. Is it Possible to Predict the Future of Civilization? And, above all, to influence its development? The problem in brief The background of the problem Remember, we are in a glass house Chaos theory and synergetics How long do civilizations last? Chapter 2. Psychology Mindset Aggressiveness Group and community psychology; the laws of mob psychology Psychological illnesses of civilization Criminal psychology Terrorist psychology Psychology of the victim Basic instincts and values Fanaticism Business psychology; pyramids of power Tolerance Chapter 3. Manipulation of Consciousness Some methods of mass manipulation of consciousness Media Society's resistance Totalitarianism and democracy Myths Education Chapter 4. The Evolution of Civilization The initial stage Brief survey of the development of civilization Technological and other aspects of the development of world civilization The postindustrial and information society Major religions Ideologies The evolution of culture Ethnicities and problems of migration Demographics Evolution: achievements and problems Chapter 5. Conflicts and Terrorism Conflicts everywhere Conflict settlement Social and political conflicts Ethnic conflicts International conflicts The conflict between Western civilization and Islamic fundamentalism Terrorism and terror in Russia The Cultural Revolution: Terror in China The Israeli-Palestinian conflict The conflict in Chechnya Terrorism becomes a global problem 8 10 10 11 17 19 23 25 25 26 28 31 32 33 36 39 41 42 44 46 47 50 53 54 55 56 59 60 62 66 68 71 74 76 79 81 83 86 86 87 88 89 90 91 94 97 98 99 100

Table of contents

Chapter 6. Global crisis the Cold War The beginning, scale, and crises of the Cold War The late 20th century: military, economic, and political crises in the Soviet Union Chapter 7. Russia, a View From the Inside "Russia, to where are you rushing? Give an answer. No answer" (Nikolay Gogol) So what do we need? The national idea today In planning our future, we should have the dynamics of a quickly changing world in mind It is well known what issues are to be solved. The question is how to solve them Crises in Russia Chapter 8. Changes in the Mindsets of Nations; Economic Miracles Transformation of the mindset of the Russians in the 20th century Germany Japan Other countries Failure to modernize Iran Regularities of modernization processes Chapter 9. Globalization. Economic Crisis The background of globalization Advantages and disadvantages of globalization Antiglobalism Prospects The crisis of 20072010(?) Chapter 10. The European Union Difficulties of unification Steps toward unity The EU and Russia Chapter 11. World Government and the Global Policeman International organizations in the post World War I and post World War II periods The situation at the turn of the 21st century Movements for world government The UN and sustainable development Today: is the United States the acknowledged leader? How long before its transformation into a world government? Chapter 12. Weapons Weapons development and modernization one of the main goals in human science and technology Weapons of mass destruction Missiles: the nuclear triad Other types of weapons Chapter 13. The Possibilities and Threats of New Technologies Nanotechnology Robotics. artificial intelligence Genetic engineering Chapter 14. Environment and Dangers From Without Asteroidal and other dangers from without Chapter 15. Crime Crimes by the state against people Crime by one state against another Crimes by individuals or groups of people Crimes of officials

108 108 113 117 119 123 126 129 131 133 133 135 139 140 142 143 146 146 148 150 152 153 156 158 159 160 162 164 165 167 168 169 173 173 175 179 183 191 191 193 195 200 204 207 207 208 209 211

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Chapter 16. Culture of Security Chapter 17. Variants of the future: Inevitable Chaos or Sustainable Development? New humanism An ideal scenario for the future; alternative civilization Pessimistic scenarios of the future The future in literature Predictions for the near future; versions of the U.S. intelligence services Crises in the evolution of life on Earth Technologies of the near future Developing space Longer term forecasts Chapter 18. Global Projects That May Help Save Civilization I. Consciousness Modern technologies allow for a profound impact on consciousness Basic aspects of consciousness transformation II. Disarmament General considerations regarding disarmament Post-Cold War disarmament Disarmament in the future III. Technology IV. Economics V. Geopolitics Conclusion Final comments Appendix 1. Civilizations in the Universe: A Version Appendix 2. The Einstein-Freud Correspondence Appendix 3. A Conversation Overhead at the Beginning of the 21 Century References
st

215 222 223 223 225 227 228 230 232 234 237 240 241 243 246 252 252 253 256 258 260 263 269 271 272 276

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Introduction
sense of foreboding has arisen in human consciousness in various epochs and has been associated, first and foremost, with religious prophesies of the Apocalypse, periodic crises, devastating wars and natural disasters. With the development of communications and international economic ties (globalization), such periodic economic crises started hitting several countries at a time, and, sometimes, even the whole world. Financial breakdowns accompanied by massive bankruptcies, closeouts and layoffs, followed by social and political disturbances and exacerbation of international relations, sometimes leading to wars, have become more frequent. Two world wars of the 20th century caused unprecedented destruction and death toll. Now, as we entered the 21st century, we are facing the danger of global crises caused by environmental and natural cataclysms, including depletion of resources, water and atmospheric pollution, ocean level rise forcing the need of prompt relocation of hundreds of millions of people and other problems. Given the rapidly increasing anthropogenic pressure and the accumulation of weapons of mass destruction, sophisticated and painstaking efforts will need to be taken to preserve our human civilization on planet Earth. Understanding of the regularities of our development, learning to govern them, to predict and overcome crises is obviously becoming vitally important. As Andrei Sakharov said, "the global aims of mankind's survival have priority over any regional, government, national, class, party, group or personal objectives." The rapid change of many factors determining the life on the planet has made things worse: reality is changing faster than we are able to study it. Radical economic and political changes are now occurring as frequently as once in every several decades. Scientific inventions and technological breakthroughs are appearing and entering our lives with even greater rapidity. The factors governing mankind's progress include advances in the natural and social sciences, political developments, the demographic situation and environmental factors. The existing scientific schools and research programs are most often limited to narrow specializations and are not well equipped for comprehensive studies of the interrelations characteristic of such a multifaceted system as human civilization. Our mind's tendency to unconsciously try to avoid problems and remain oblivious to threats complicates the matter. It is time to pose the question of what to do. Should we humbly accept our fate, hoping that the worst scenarios will not come true and that we will survive? Or should we look for ways to save mankind, avoiding dangers and trying to check destructive forces? Will we manage to join our efforts, reverse dangerous trends and resolve these problems? The rapid proliferation of knowledge around the planet is passing on world-destructive capabilities to increasing numbers of people, including national leaders, militaries, terrorists and technical specialists. It is difficult to predict how threats may materialize through someone's evil designs, negligence, mistake or psychological imbalance. The fate of our planet is in our hands and depends on our ability to control events. The complexity of the international situation during the Cold War gave rise to various studies of the development of human civilization and its dynamics and regularities, from primitive societies to those with high levels of technology. Such studies increasingly accentuated the cataclysms facing mankind. With the end of the Cold War, the world entered into a decade-long period of relative calm during which fears somewhat abated. Then, however, a new global confrontation took shape, this time between the West and the radical Islamic countries and groups. This confrontation is rooted in economic, religious and ideological differences between the backward, underdeveloped countries and the leading ones, specifically differences in culture and ways of life, and territorial disputes. The results have been the wars in Afghanistan and Iran, the continuing armed conflicts at the borders of Israel involving Lebanon and Syria, the exacerbating situation about Iran and the continuing bloodshed in Sudan and other hot spots around the globe. The most worrisome trend is that of the regular confrontations on a global scale that have occurred in intervals ranging from one to several decades over the last century. With changing opposing participants, causes and geography and with the development and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, such confrontations are becoming increasingly dangerous. It can be presumed that the present exacerbation of the state of affairs (it is difficult to predict when and after what losses it may end) will be followed by more conflicts caused by irregularities in development and conflicts of interests between different countries and communities in addition to the ambitions and mental shortcomings of their leaders. This study is an attempt to gather information on various facets of life and analyze the main aspects of reality that affecting the evolution and destiny of mankind from psychological peculiarities to economic matters, from problems of culture and upbringing to Chaos Theory (synergy) as well as to analyze possi-

Introduction

ble paths of further development. The views of many historians, political scientists, economists and others who have studied human development and its prospects are presented. As a possessor of great experience working in the field of theoretical physics, the author of this book is well aware of how the present-day "miracles" or fantastic breakthroughs in science and technology are produced. Based on this knowledge, an attempt is made to predict what mankind will be able to achieve in this century and what may be used for the benefit or the detriment of future generations. The author considers himself the pessimist from the old joke, "a pessimist is a well-informed optimist." The greatest concerns are how to preserve peace in a situation in which more and more destructive forces are emerging on the world arena and how to control them given our imperfect and slowly changing consciousness? Most of the chapters in this book represent self-contained and complete discussions; therefore, there may be some repetition of facts and phrases in different sections. For example, a number of chapters discuss the problems of our reason and the imperfection of consciousness, and some also touch upon the issues of terrorism, the situation in Russia and the exploration of space. The concluding chapter is an attempt to compile a list of steps to be taken that can ensure the stable and sustainable development of human civilization. It is important to understand that, although the proposals do encompass almost the whole scope of necessary steps, the biggest problem here is to acknowledge the necessity of carrying out such radical transformations. I leave it up to the reader either to agree with my opinions or put forward different ones or perhaps choose to become active in resolving the problems raised in this book. As this book shows the whole panorama of our lives and their different facets and prospects, it allows for both experts and laypeople to involve themselves in what is the most acute problem of today. Also, the book may be helpful as additional reading for those who study such fields as sociology, psychology, history, conflict resolution, etc. The description of contemporary developments cuts off at the moment the manuscript went to the printers, but it may be continued in further editions of this book. With the current rate of changes in the world, some statements made herein may change or become obsolete in a very brief period of time, which, of course, complicates approaches to the problem.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

10

Chapter 1

Is it possible to predict the future of civilization, and, above all, to influence its development?
Global wars of increasing sophistication and scale claimed an unprecedented death toll and destruction in the last century. The progress of globalization and numerous technological achievements in conditions in which peoples' mentality remained unchanged have created an unusual and dangerous situation for mankind: people built up arsenals sufficient enough for global devastation, but were not always able to settle emerging conflicts by peaceful means. Possible future outcomes for mankind include both possible use of weapons of mass destruction and sustainable peaceful development. It is hard to predict which will take the upper hand under the present spontaneous, practically uncontrolled march of events. But it appears that mankind is still capable of analyzing what is going on and channeling its evolution along a favorable path. The Problem in Brief
he last century saw unprecedented breakthroughs in engineering, physics, chemistry, computer science, genetics, medicine, and so forth. The rapid advance of technological achievements accompanied by a relative slow progress in humanitarian disciplines, specifically those which study people's mentality and behavior, has led to the creation of an unusual and dangerous situation for mankind: people have accumulated huge arsenals sufficient to destroy the world, but are unable (to be more precise, are not always able) to settle conflicts emerging here and there around the globe by peaceful means. The means and methods of conflict resolution have seen little change over the past centuries and have become incommensurate to the arsenals that have been accumulated in the world. Even such seemingly significant developments in social and public life as the advance of democracy and liberalism and sharp reduction in the number of totalitarian and dictatorial regimes have not helped to change the use of war and bloodshed as common approaches to conflict resolution. The history of mankind has been to a considerable extent the history of conflicts fueled by the ambitions of rulers or religious or nationalist fanaticism, along with the desire to resolve internal problems at the expense of neighbors, or, rather often, for territorial gains. What we see is a chaotic chain of ghastly atrocities engulfing whole countries and groups of people: the death toll of the last century's 15 thousand wars1 amounts to many billions. In the meantime, we have increasingly exploited natural resources, which has not led to any dangerous consequences until recently. The problem of a natural limit to the development of human civilization appeared recently, and is addressed in Chapter 14. The role played by the imperfection of human understanding can easily be seen in many historical events, particularly those in which ambitious rulers began wars in absolute certainty of victory. If in the past such misconceived forays only caused numerous deaths often of the leaders themselves since the mid-20th century an ill-advised action by those in control of nuclear weapons would have posed a danger for the whole planet. In essence, there is little difference between the intrigues and plots of Ancient Egypt or medieval Europe and those occurring in the circles of power today, except that at present there is the danger of modern weapons being brought to bear2. In almost all times, wars were perceived as one of the strongest, if not the ultimate, manifestations of human spirit, honor, valor and other eternal values. Russian poet and writer Nikolay Nekrasov wrote: "Go and die for a noble cause a cause sealed up with blood3."
1 Approximate numbers are given here and in many other places below, because, regrettably, there is often rather poor agreement between different sources. Nevertheless, these slight variations are not critical for understanding the events and trends discussed in this book. 2 "In the high and pompous rooms of the leaders and presidents they betray millions and send them to their deaths. It was very ago when a country leader took a spear and a shield and led his folks to fight" (Victor Astafiev, The Cursed and the Slain, 1994). 3 "Humanity, and Russia as its part, have fallen into a deepest crisis. It manifests itself in exacerbating dissonance between mechanisms of governance and society's fundamental goals. The dissonance has emerged for the first time in the million-year-long history of homo sapiens and many-thousand-year long history of human civilization. The crisis appears to be much more worrisome than all the difficulties related to energy sources, environmental or climatic issues."(Professor Sergei Kapitsa, Izvestia, February 12, 2008).

Chapter 1

11

Looking back, it is easy to see how ridiculous the Cold War, however much it held the world on the verge of disaster. It was believed that the Cold War was rooted in ideological contradictions, specifically different understandings of what economic and social order could provide a better quality of life and more freedom and opportunities for people to develop their natural endowments. However, in reality it looks more like a battle for superiority, for the power of certain groups and countries to rule others. While fighting for the bright future of humanity, the two opposing camps, each with its own understanding of what the bright future should be like, got so carried away with the process that the very existence of any future of humanity became imperiled. "We will struggle for peace on Earth until not a stone is left standing," was a popular joke at the time.

"I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." Albert Einstein
For over nearly the whole second half of the 20th century there was a confrontation of two opposing blocs (socialism and capitalism, as they habitually called) the fragile balance several times being on the verge of failure. A missile strike by one nuclear submarine, and there were many of them, could have (and still can today) destroy cities over a whole continent and trigger a global catastrophe. Some 40 years ago, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, a "finger-on-the-button" situation almost took place. There have been other moments in history in which a massive missile strike could have resulted from equipment malfunction. The situation was reminiscent of tightrope walking, but, fortunately, the Cold War did not lead to a global explosion. The story of the nuclear bomb is in itself rather edifying: first it was created (which caused euphoria), then it was replicated (in numbers sufficient to destroy life many times over), and now we are trying, without much success, to stop its proliferation around the globe. Here it is appropriate to note that one of the factors preventing the Cold War from developing into a real nuclear war were the horrors of the nuclear bombing of Japan, which were graphically described out and stood in front of everybody's eyes. Such events serve as "vaccinations" that help to develop an immunity of a limited strength and for a limited period of time. The effect of actual catastrophes is stronger than that of the best-substantiated concerns4. Do we need more "vaccinations" to invigorate our efforts in fighting emerging threats?

The Background of the Problem

This subject has a long history: the notion of the End of the World can be found in mythology and in various religious doctrines. Most serious attempts at comprehending and studying the prospects of human civilization were made over the last several decades, i.e., precisely when real threats had emerged. It is now possible to quantify these threats, and the number of publications on the subject has increased in proportion to them.
4

The term "social memory" means the collective memory of a nation of the calamities it has been through; these memories hold people back from unleashing new wars. Was it perhaps precisely this kind of memory that saved Russia from civil war during the crucial years of the end of the 20th century?

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

12

This problem acted as the driving force for various pacifist and environmentalist movements. Back in 1939 Albert Einstein called upon the US president to intensify work in nuclear physics5, but things changed in 1955 when the Russell-Einstein manifesto came out, warning of the dangers inherent in nuclear weapons. Many eminent scientists, including Frederic Joliot-Curie, Linus Pauling, Max Borne, Joseph Rotblat, and others, subsequently endorsed the manifesto6 : "We are speaking on this occasion, not as members of this or that nation, continent, or creed, but as human beings, members of the species Man, whose continued existence is in doubt. All, equally, are in peril, and, if the peril is understood, there is hope that they may collectively avert it. None of them will say that the worst results are certain. What they do say is that these results are possible, and no one can be sure that they will not be realized. People scarcely realize in imagination that the danger is to themselves and their children and their grandchildren, and not only to a dimly apprehended mankind We have to learn to think in a new way The question we have to ask ourselves is: what steps can be taken to prevent a military contest of which the issue must be disastrous to all parties?" One year earlier, in 1954, Igor Kurchatov, Abram Alikhanov, and other Soviet scientists had sent a secret report to their government, which specifically said that "obviously, defense against such weapons is practically impossible it is clear that the use of atomic weapons on a mass scale will lead to devastation in the warring countries Aside from the destructive impact of atomic and hydrogen bombs there is another threat for mankind involved in atomic war poisoning the atmosphere and the surface of the globe with radioactive substances originating from nuclear explosions... The rate of growth of atomic explosives is such that in just a few years the stockpile will be large enough to create conditions under which the existence of life on the whole globe will be impossible. So we cannot but admit that mankind faces the enormous threat of an end to all life on earth." Later Soviet and American scientists studied the potential effects of massive use of nuclear weapons on the atmosphere; results were compared, and the notion of "nuclear winter" came into being: a simultaneous explosion of 5,000-7,000 one-megaton bombs would throw trillions of tons of earth into the air, which would block out the Sun and make the climate on the Earth unsuitable for agriculture and human life. (Something like this has happened before in the history of our planet: 65 million years ago, a large meteorite hit the Earth where Mexico is now located, hurling colossal amounts of earth into the air. This catastrophe, which was reminiscent of nuclear winter, wiped out a large part of the living beings on the planet)7. Here it is appropriate to recall what the French social psychologist Gustave Le Bon said back in the 19th century: "Science promised us truth, or at least a knowledge of such relations as our intelligence can seize: it never promised us peace or happiness." The Russell-Einstein manifesto initiated the Pugwash Movement, which organized regular meetings of scientists and public and political leaders of all countries; hundreds of symposia and conferences have been held under its umbrella. More than 40 Pugwash national committees and research groups were established and began to work for the sake of mankind's survival. The Pugwash movement received worldwide recognition: in 1995, the movement and one of the Russell-Einstein manifesto signatories, Joseph Rotblat, were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Yet before the outbreak of World War II, in 1933, the Humanist Manifesto I appeared the brainchild of a large group of pacifist-minded scientists and public activists from Europe and the United States. The Manifesto called for "radical change in methods, controls, and motives..." for "socialized and cooperative economic order..." In 1973, it was followed by the Humanist Manifesto II, which condemned totalitarianism, racism, and religious and class antagonism; asserted personal dignity as a supreme humanitarian value; and advocated democracy and international security and cooperation.
In 1939, Leo Szilard and co-workers demonstrated the possibility of creating a chain reaction of Uranium fission. Together with Enrico Fermi, Leo Szilard determined the critical mass for Uranium 235. In his letter to US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Albert Einstein wrote that nuclear physics had come to the point where "extremely powerful bombs of a new type may thus be constructed." This was followed by the multibillion-dollar Manhattan Project, which lasted for 6 years and led to the creation of the first uranium-plutonium bombs. 6 The Manifesto was written by Bertrand Russell and Frederic Joliot-Curie. Albert Einstein signed it on his deathbed. 7 In fact, it is likely that to cause a global catastrophe it would be enough to explode several thousands of bombs on one continent without the need for transporting them thousands of kilometers with the help of missiles, airplanes, etc. This would be global suicide, and the nuclear arms race is nothing but preparation for such suicide. Huge masses of soot and soil would be cast into the air and block sunlight from the Earth's surface; as a result, life on the planet's surface would become almost impossible (see other chapters on the effects of Nuclear Winter).
5

Chapter 1

13

The international humanist movement's ideology was formulated in the Secular Humanist Declaration (1980) and Declaration of Interdependence (1988). In the meantime, World Peace Congresses and World Peace Council meetings were taking place, and the Stockholm Appeals gathered 500 million and 700 million signatures, respectively, in 1950 and 1975. Modern assessments of the situation and forecasts of the prospects for the future of the world community were given in the recent Humanist Manifesto 2000, A Call for a New Planetary Humanism, which is quoted below several times. The authors of the Manifesto include ten Nobel Prize winners and prominent figures from 30 countries. It was in the middle of the 20th century that the notions of "global crisis" and "futurology" the "history of the future" became widespread. A Futurology Commission was established in the United States in 1965 to study future of the that country and that of civilization as a whole. A bit later, in 1968, the Club of Rome, a global think tank of some 70 members, including businessmen, politicians, scientists, and cultural figures, came into being. Aurelio Peccei was its founder and first president. The Club of Rome formulated its mission as seeking experts to serve the following basic agendas: To develop an effective method to resolve the problems of civilization, such as the contradiction between the planet's limited resources and the galloping growth of production; To raise people's awareness around the world of the critical situation on the planet; To advise mankind to engage in "reasonable management" and maintain "global balances." The following is an excerpt from the Club of Rome Declaration: "We, the members of the Club of Rome, are convinced that the future of humanity is not determined once and for all, and that it is possible to avoid present and foreseeable catastrophes when they are the result of human selfishness or of mistakes made in managing world affairs. We believe that every human being can choose to take charge of his or her own future rather than be a victim of events." The Club promoted meetings between people from various countries, organized lectures by scientists and scholars, and sponsored research activities. Although the Club of Rome was founded and implemented most of its projects in the time of the Cold War between the two political and economic systems of capitalism and socialism, this did not prevent it from promoting the idea of world integration into a common economic and even a common political system. In 1996, Ervin Laszlo took up a similar program to establish an informal association of like-minded people concerned about the environment, the destiny of the world and future generations. That was how the Club of Budapest was born. The Club of Budapest developed international and intercultural projects designed to provide the basis for and to promote the formation of planetary consciousness in individuals, communities, social institutions and businesses. Some works by Vasily Vereshchagin: The Apotheosis of War (1974) Laszlo and Aurelio Peccei are quoted in the following chapters of this book. In the late 1960s a new discipline, globalistics, appeared. It studies the interrelating processes of civilizational development in their and their influence on the future of our planet. In the last decade of the 20th century, the Budapest Club was established to pursue the same goals. Research has been gaining momentum as more information becomes available on possible the consequences of nuclear war and anthropogenic impact on the environment. Over a period of several years, the Club of Rome sponsored more than 20 studies on various topics that were published and widely discussed. (Serious studies devoted to the problem appeared in fact much earlier, back in the 1950s-1960s).
The following is a brief outline of selected publications (books, articles and reports) on the subject: Correspondence between Albert Einstein and Siegmund Freud in 1932 focused on the question "is it possible to control mental evolution of the human race to make it immune to the psychoses of violence and destruction? With modern methods of warfare, one or both warring parties might end up completely exterminated given all the perfection of modern destruction techniques." (see Appendix 2). Robert Jungk's Tomorrow Is Already Here (1952) addresses the scientific and technical breakthroughs of the time and their potential consequences: "The progress in science is faster than that in the human power to comprehend it... Now people are required to mobilize all their strengths to become adequate to the new powers in their possession, and to make use of these new powers with wisdom, self-restraint and dignity, for the sake of building a sensible and splendid future." Stanislaw Lem's Summa Technologiae (1963) ponders the possible ways that mankind may development, regularities and prospects of scientific research, the evolution of living organisms, and the question of the possible existence of extraterrestrial civilizations.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

14

Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener's The Year 2000 (1967) and The Third Wave (1980). The former focuses on the social and political changes to be encountered by developed countries in the future "postindustrial society," while the latter is remarkable in that it introduces the term "knowledge society" i.e., an association of people based on their collective knowledge. Alvin Toffler's Future Shock (1970) describes the psychological effects of the turbulent changes of the future. "Hazards will not just grow, but grow exponentially. Such future is not for the weak-nerved ones." In The Limits to Growth (1972), Donella Meadows et al. wrote that "if the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years: The natural resources will be depleted and food shortage will acquire a catastrophic character." Later, in 1992, the same group of authors put out another book, Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future, where they showed that, if the present day trends were to continue, a collapse might occur in the 21st century. In 2006, Meadows wrote: "It is not too late to shift onto a path of sustainable development. However, many good opportunities have been lost due to the 35-year long negation of obvious facts." Mihajlo Mesarovic and Eduard Pestel, in their Strategy for Survival (or Humanity at the Turning Point) (1974), advocated slowing down economic growth in the developed countries, while increasing it in the Third World. The latter would carry out technological modernization, with liberalization of the political system being a necessary condition for this. The authors predicted that a chain of crises in various regions of the globe would occur in the near future. In The Human Quality (1977), Aurelio Peccei maintained that there is a need for radical changes in human perception and modus operandi. "All efforts presently made are insufficient; other actions, of a kind fundamentally different from those undertaken today, are required... If we really want humanity to have a successful future, we should think of how to change the quality of a human being in the first place." (For more Peccei quotes, see Chapter 17.) The message Ervin Laszlo expressed in his reports to the Club of Rome "Goals in a Global Community" and "Goals for Humanity" (1977) is basically a continuation of Peccei's theme of the supremacy of the "human factor" and the assertion that the century's fundamental problems "are rooted in the human consciousness and not somewhere else." Laszlo proposes a "leading role of science and religion" because "only these two vectors of human activity can lead the world to the true path of development." Focused on the same issue are Laszlo's several recent works (see "Ways Leading to the Next Millennium. Problems and Prospects" and other works by Laszlo in the Reference Section of the book). In A Choice of Catastrophes (1979), Isaac Asimov considered potential global disasters that could endanger humanity's existence, including those originating in outer space and on the Earth. "If we come to understand that our enemies are poverty, ignorance and cold indifference to the laws of nature, we will be able to make a deliberate choice and eventually avoid catastrophes." Rushworth Kidder's Reinventing the Future: Global Goals for the 21st Century (1987) contains recommendations by 35 distinguished individuals on various aspects of human development. Hazel Henderson, in his Paradigms in Progress (1991), addresses the need for a new world order with different priorities in the economy, politics and sociology. "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us?", an article by Bill Joy in Wired (2000), warns of the dangers awaiting mankind with the development of new technologies. In 2002, Glenn D. Paige, the founder and president of the Center for Global Nonviolence, wrote the book Is a Nonkilling Society Possible?, where he shows that a "nonkilling society" is a realistic idea and that the Judeo-Christian Commandment "Thou shalt not kill" can and should be enforced in world political practices. The author argues that the threat of mankind's self-elimination cannot be averted without a new way of thinking (for more details, see Chapter 18). One of the United States' most famous political scientists, Francis Fukuyama, in his study The End of History? (1992), argued that the United States and other developed countries had reached the apex of social development, that there is no point in further transformation of liberal democracy and free-market capitalism, and that other peoples will only reproduce these accomplishments in their respective countries. In other words, the victory of the Western model of democracy marks the end of history. However, ten years later, after the terrible 9/11 terrorist attacks, Fukuyama wrote an article, "Has History Started Again?", in which he admitted that a considerable part of mankind has chosen different values and is even daring to challenge Western civilization. Therefore, he concluded, survival is becoming the most acute problem8. We can see that now we are quite far from the end of history. The issues of the modern world are discussed in Fukuyama's recent book America at the Crossroads. Nick Bostrom, a Swedish philosopher at the University of Oxford, in his book Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards (2001) discusses the recently appeared category of risks existential risks "risks of events which can lead to the extinction of humanity or gravely affect the intelligent life's potential for development on the Earth." The American sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein studied the issues of globalistics in his multivolume treatise The Modern World System, published in 1974-1989; later, in his book After Liberalism (2003), he analyzed future ways of development. The following is an excerpt from the later book: "The future period of 25-50 years will be a period of systemic disorder, disintegration and acute political struggle over the choice of a new world system that shall be created. The world's division into countries will be the main obstacle on our way... Most effective during transitional period will be work on both local and global levels, because activities on the national state level have rather limited character."

8 It might be appropriate to change the title of Fukuyama's first article to read "The End of Chaotic Prehistory." Without a doubt, we have reached a crucial point at which uncontrolled development is no longer permissible: From now on mankind should build its own history in a systematic and sensible way, like shifting to manual control in steering a vehicle.

Chapter 1

15

"Global Trends 2010," "Global Trends 2015," "Project 2020" and "Project 2025" present forecasts made by the U.S. National Intelligence Council for the beginning of the 21st century (see Chapter 17 for the latest projects and the list of books picturing our possible future; some of them, though written back in the beginning of the 20th century, contain quite a few very accurate forecasts, specifically the books by H.G. Wells. The main idea of Fromms To Have or To Be? was that destructive trends are rooted in people's urge for wealth and property: "As long as states are populated by those whose primary motivation is property possession and greed, they will not be able to live without wars... They will bring the whole arsenal of means at their disposal against weaker countries... and even if the chances for victory are questionable, a war would all the same be unleashed... The very thought of the possibility of peace against the background of a permanent fight for possession and profit is an illusion... If, however, we speak of today and tomorrow, the incredible growth of destructive power of new types of weapons leaves us with no alternative about the 'war or no war' question now the question is only about mutual annihilation." There are a lot of published works, including several classic books, on the problems of economy, financial crises and related events. Some references can be found in the section of this book devoted to the present crisis. Works by Russian authors: Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, in The Living Universe (1923), predicted that human beings would change, develop new qualities, and master the universe. As he said, "the Earth is a cradle of the mind, but we cannot live forever in a cradle." Nikolay Timofeev-Resovsky, in Biosphere and Humanity (a collection of research papers of the USSR Geographical Society, Obninsk Division, 1968) back in the precomputer epoch argued that "global balance is a problem for mathematicians and cyberneticists that cannot be resolved without their attention Biosphere and Humanity is the number one problem, and an urgent one. Right now we are required to direct all efforts by our scientists to resolve this problem... Unfortunately, most people have not yet recognized the problem seriously enough." In his The World after the Half Century (1974), Andrei Sakharov argued that "the progress of science and technology will not bring real happiness if not enriched by... appropriate changes in social life and human mentality." In his Nobel Lecture "World. Progress. Human Rights" (1975), Sakharov said that "there is a great deal to suggest that humanity, at the threshold of the second half of the twentieth century, entered a particularly decisive and critical period of its history. Thermonuclear missiles, which in principle are capable of annihilating the whole of humanity, exist; this is the greatest danger threatening our age... not to mention chemical and bacteriological instruments of war." Nikita Moiseyev, in The Destiny of Civilization. The Way of Reason (1998), notes that the 20th century is a time of a warning to all of human civilization of its possible end, which may come if people fail to acknowledge and radically change existing tendencies. "I hope that acknowledgment of possible global catastrophe would mark the beginning of change in the trajectory of social development..., because the future of humanity, if it ever comes, will have very little in common with modern day life," he wrote. According to Igor Bestuzhev-Lada's An Alternative Civilization (1998), the only possible option for continued existence of civilization is a to become based on renewable energy sources, environmental and demographic balances, complete disarmament, and the triumph of "genuine humanism overcoming the present day anti-culture." In The New Post-Industrial Wave of the West. Anthology, 1999, Vladislav Inozemtsev collected works by prominent Western experts on postindustrial society and futurology. Bestuzhev-Lada's The 21st Century Is Ahead of Us. An Anthology of Modern Classical Prognostication (2000), is a collection of excerpts from dozens of the last century's works devoted to this issue. Sergey Kapitsa, Sergey Kurdyumov and Georgy Malinetskiy, in Synergy and Forecasts of the Future (2001), presented mathematical modeling of historical processes and discussed the issues of planning the future and demographic problems. Synergy Paradigm (2002) (by a group of authors) describes the application of synergy to various fields of investigation and the conclusions thereof. In his articles "The Dinosaurs Died Quickly. Will We Have the Same Fate?", "How Many Years Are Our Grandchildren and Great Grandchildren Fated to Live?", and "Is it Possible to Predict the Future of Humanity?", published in the Argumenty i Fakty weekly (No. 25, 2000; No. 47, 2001; and No. 47, 2002, respectively), Evgeny Abramyan studies tendencies in the development of civilization, growing threats to its existence, and possible ways of resolving its problems. See the Globalistics. Encyclopedia (2003) for detailed and comprehensive definitions of the main terms related to the global problems, including environmental protection, conflict resolution, economics, etc. The book is a collective product by a multinational team of over 400 experts. In Vyacheslav Stepins' report to the Fourth Russian Philosophical Congress of the Problem of the Civilization's Future, "Philosophy and the Future of Civilization" (May 2005), he wrote that "of the variety of probable future scenarios, most of which are catastrophic, mankind is to pick up those which are best suited for its survival and sustainable development. It is impossible to predict which of them will be realized, because transformation of probability into reality depends on many factors, including coincidental ones."9. The exacerbating problems facing humanity have been given attention by many distinguished writers and thinkers. Shortly before his death, Alexander Solzhenitsyn said in his interview (published in Izvestia, December 11, 2008): "Humanity will not avoid paying for

9 The publications outlined in this section mostly belong to the last 50 years, i.e., were written during the time in which threats to human civilization became overt. The ideas of the instability of civilization instability and the need for preventative action to save mankind were however expressed in earlier works. Calls for radical changes and peaceful coexistence can be found in the books by the utopian socialists and in various religious dogmas (see Chapter 17)

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

16

its loss of the sense of self-mastery, self-restraint in wants and demands, its lack of ability to control the greed of those in power and rich ones (both individual people and whole countries)."10. A number of other studies on the issue of globalistics have appeared in the recent several years, including Aidar Abdullin, Essentials of Globalistics (1999); Arkadiy Fedotov, Globalistics: The Basics of Modern World Science (2002); Bruce Sterling, Tomorrow Now: Envisioning the Next Fifty Years (2002); Martin J. Rees, Our Final Hour (2003); Vladimir Tsaplin, Strange Civilization (2005); Viktor Danilov-Danilyan, Kim Losev, Igor Reif, Before Civilization's Main Challenge (2005); Thomas L. Friedman, The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century (2005); Dmitry Aksenov, Predictions of the FutureThe Shocking Truth (2006); Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, Russia and the World in 20062015: Challenges and Responses (2006); Alexei Turchin, War and Another 25 Doomsday Scenarios, 2008, etc. A list of recent books devoted to this subject can be found at http://spkurdyumov.narod.ru/Start1N.htm. The authors listed above are quoted in this book. The greater the awareness of the problem of preserving human civilization, the larger the number of publications presenting predictions and recipes for stability. This book is part of this series. It may provide a broader outlook of the problem, and attempt to put forth several specific programs for preserving civilization. This edition largely repeats the previous ones: How Much Longer Are We Expected To Live?; The Destiny of Civilization; and Civilization in the 21st Century (Evgeny Abramyan). The latter edition came out in both Russian and English languages (2006-2008). However, this edition contains additional information regarding the events that have occurred in the intervening year. There are a number of futurological magazines, including The Futurist, Futures Research Quarterly, and Future Survey published in the United States; futurology is receiving much attention on the Internet; various kinds of prognoses are being made by the Rand Corporation (United States), the CIA National Intelligence Council, and Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting) center, the Santa-Fe Institute (SFI) and the World Futures Studies Federation and Academy for Future Science are also working on the problem. Even in the former Soviet Union, there has been a Committee for Scientific and Technical Forecasting that existed for some time. The international movement Greenpeace has been on the stage since 1971 and now has branches in 40 countries. The meetings held under the umbrella of the International Philosophers for Prevention of Nuclear Omnicide, the Issyk-Kul forum (the forum's initiator, the humanist writer Chingiz Aitmatov, later became the chairman of the Alliance of Civilizations) were devoted to the same subject, and, since recently, the problem has been given special attention at meetings of the International Philosophical Congresses (which has convened since 1900.)11 . In 1992, over 1,500 scientists from 70 countries, including 104 Nobel Prize winners, having entered into a Union of Concerned Scientists, issued a statement titled "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity" emphasizing that "human beings and the natural world are on a collision course... The earth is finite... Its ability to provide for growing numbers of people is finite. And we are fast approaching many of the Earth's limits... No more than one or a few decades remain before the chance to avert the threats we now confront will be lost and the prospects for mankind immeasurably diminished." In 1999, an international nongovernmental organization, the Earth Charter Commission, published the Earth Charter promulgating moral, economic, and environmentalist principles for the sake of mankind's survival. In 2000, nongovernmental organizations convened a Millennium NGO Forum in New York. The world public forum Dialogue of Civilizations has regularly organized Rhodes forums since 200212. The Tallberg Forum had assembled in Sweden for more than 25 times under the auspices of the Kind of Sweden focusing on the question of whether and how it is possible for us to live together on the Earth. I would now like to draw your attention to certain ideas expressed in the Charter for the Third Millennium, which was authored by George Krassovsky, a French political scientist and public activist with Russian roots. He advocates banning the production, sale, and use of arms; disbanding all national armies; and channeling military budgets to combat poverty and finance environmental rehabilitation programs. In his view, education and the development of the attitudes of the younger generation should be based on the principles of respect for human life and dignity. It is possible to name other national and international conferences, assemblies, academies, and organizations that promulgate (or look for) solutions for the problem of how to preserve human civilization. The following is an excerpt from the Appeal of Russian Scientists to the International Scientific Community endorsed by a group of members of the Russian Academy of Sciences in January 2004: "The current situation on the planet is reflective of not only the poor development of strategic thinking, but also points to the complexity of the problem itself and undeveloped state of cognitive theory and the social and fundamental sciences. We still do not have a well-supported concept of development, nor have we any clear vision of the next several decades, much less the future of human civilization. History has left mankind without a scientifically proven theory of social development. We should accept that preserving human civilization is mankind's fundamental goal, and shall propose to incorporate this goal as a basic idea into the UN member countries' constitutions. There is a need for consolidation of the international scientific community behind the idea of public enlightenment and education. Today's main task is to make each and every person acknowledge the objective reality of surrounding world." (author's emphasis).

10 "There are people who malevolently commit black deeds, and it is only necessary to distinguish them from others and eliminate. But the line drawn between good and bad runs through the heart of every man. And who will eliminate the piece of his own heart?" from Alexander Solzhenitsyn's The Gulag Archipelago. 11 The International Peace Bureau, another organization agitating for peace, has been active since the early 20th century. 12 The following is a quote from the President of the Dialogue of Civilizations forum, Vladimir Yakunin (published in Izvestia, November 23, 2008): "Collision of civilizations is not unavoidable; dialog is possible. More and more people are coming to understand that we are living is a system of pseudo values. The world needs a new humanistic order where a bigger role is given to civil society since the fate of people shall not be entrusted to the narrow circle of those forming the political elite."

Chapter 1

17

The ideas of preserving human civilization and ensuring its sustainable development are present in many UN document13. Two meaningful summits devoted to environment preservation and development have been called under UN auspices: In Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and in Johannesburg (Rio+10) in 2002. Representatives attended these conferences from nearly all UN member countries and the leaders of more than 100 states. The main idea expressed by then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan was "responsibility for our planet, whose bounty is the very basis for human well-being and progress. And most of all, responsibility for the future for our children, and their children." The numerous attempts undertaken to look into the future and influence it have served to flesh out a better understanding of the present-day status of mankind. The most common position is acknowledgment of the real dangers to mankind existence and the need for radical measures. Numerous pacifist and religious movements, the Soviet "struggle for peace," etc. have been aimed at putting an end to war and killing of any kind. However, these efforts have at best been effective only within limited communities or regions (such as Buddhists, certain sects, etc.). The threat of a global catastrophe drastically diminished at the end of the 20th century with the end of the Cold War and the opposition of the two mighty military blocs14. A sizable portion of the available weapons of mass destruction was eliminated. This happened not so much due to people's understanding of the absurdity and senselessness of global confrontation as due to the fact that one of the opposing parties had grown weak and fallen out of the race. Unfortunately, the problem has not been eradicated. Now we are witnessing continued development of increasingly sophisticated weapons, a new global crisis has emerged from social and political disorder and we still do not have effective mechanisms for conflict prevention and regulation, while conflicts are arising with striking regularity. Remember, We Are in a Glass House Ecstatic about the triumphs of our civilization, we often forget how our metropolises and infrastructures (bridges, tunnels, dams, electricity and water lines, etc.) are extremely vulnerable to numerous offensive weapons. The 9/11 disaster ("the Pearl Harbor of the 21st century") demonstrated that mass destruction can be achieved through nonmilitary means: A small and unarmed group of men inflicted major damage on one of the world's biggest cities. While the two colossi were competing in the arms race, the poor invented their own weapon suicide bombers (or shahids), who are now empowered by access to modern technology. It is easy to recruit and train hundreds and thousands of suicide bombers, and we should not underestimate their destructive potential. Nuclear blackmail and nuclear sabotage are becoming technically possible no antimissile system can be effective against, say, a scuba diver carrying a bomb to a deserted coast or an underground bomb-making plant or in detecting chemical or biological weapons hidden between the walls of shipment containers or inside parts of imported equipment, etc. Major acts of terrorism appear to fit into the progression of the modern art of war, i.e., the transition from the trench and front battles of the past to raids, sabotage, and destruction of the enemy's vital facilities. The recent acts of house bombing and hostage-taking have demonstrated that mass killing of civilians is a real threat and that the scale of the massacre depends largely on the means the attackers manage to obtain. There is no shortage of masterminds or executors of such horrible crimes, and they demonstrate inventiveness and good organization. A number of countries, first of all the United States, are currently actively looking for ways to combat the problem, methods of defense from an insidious and dangerous enemy. Although the United States is hoping for support from other countries, it declares its readiness to assume the whole responsibility and wage the war on many fronts. It was the acknowledgment of vulnerability that led US President George W. Bush to call for "fighting a war against terrorists of global reach" and the adoption of a comprehensive "internal security" program. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America of 2002 ("The Bush Doctrine") specifically reads that "[we will be] ... "defending the United States, the American people, and our interests at home and abroad by identifying and destroying the threat before it reaches our borders ... we will not hesitate to act alone, if necessary, to exercise our right of self-defense by acting preemptively against such terrorists..." The same document noted that in the past, during the Cold War, the United States was facing a "sane" opponent: The Soviet Union was not ruled by suicide bombers or jihadis but people for whom the notion of "inadmissible damage" was a constraining factor. Today's terrorist can
13 According to one definition, sustainable development is "a pattern of development where the needs of today are satisfied without endangering prospects for future generations to live and satisfy their needs." In use since mid-1970s there have also been such terms as development without destruction and ecodevelopment, i.e., environmentally friendly development. 14 Although the Cold War did not lead to a global catastrophe, many millions of people died in local and regional conflicts.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

18

hardly be dissuaded by the threat of the deaths of their countrymen. To preserve itself mankind is required to undertake cooperative efforts on a global scale and develop mechanisms for rapid response to new challenges. What is meant here is a kind of a world government, or, to put it more precisely, new international organizations that would be more effective than is the United Nations. One of the main causes of the present worsening situation in the world is the growing gap in the quality of life in different parts of the globe: We see 10-15% of the world population enjoying a car per adult, while on the opposite pole there is a person dying of hunger every few seconds. Those who belong to the "golden billion" make $50-100 per person per day or even more, while 1 billion people on the planet earn less than $1 a day (3 billion earn less than $2-3 a day). The result is that we are witnessing antiglobalism demonstrations and attempts by the leading countries to appease the poor by forgiving their debts and setting up support funds. In the meantime, various claims are being pronounced against former colonial countries, rich countries, and rich people in general. For example, the US courts once received a multi-billion-dollar claim filed by the descendants of slaves; Libya is seeking compensation from Italy; Haiti has claims against its former parent state, France; and so on. The World Conference against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia, and Related Intolerance in South Africa in 2001 adopted a resolution demanding that white people pay compensation for colonialism. Experience indicates that it is easy to find historical pretexts for discontent, opposition and use of force. The last century has witnessed the most fantastic achievements of human civilization, accompanied by the most horrible massacres, such as genocide in Turkey, the Holocaust in Germany, the "building of communism" in the Soviet Union, the Rape of Nanking in 1937, the extermination of one-third of the Cambodian population, and hundreds of thousands of deaths in Rwanda, Sudan and East Timor and in the civil wars inflamed by the collapse of Yugoslavia. Teachings or dogmas calling for collective suicide have appeared from time to time in the history of mankind; such collective suicides involving hundreds of people have taken place in Guyana, in the United States, and in pre-Revolutionary Russia. Global economic crises are among the factors working to add fuel to the fire of international tensions and frictions. With the development of economic ties, industrial and business cooperation (see Chapter 9 Globalization), economic crises are getting bigger in scale and increasingly acute and often trigger military conflicts both within countries and between them. The arms business gives jobs to millions of people who are interested in their jobs and, hence, to the endless development, replication, and proliferation of weapons throughout the globe, including to organized criminal groups, which increases the risk of global catastrophe. Fundamentally new means of destruction are expected to appear in the next few decades as a result of discoveries in several new fields of science. Experience indicates that means of defense against new weapons usually take longer to develop than it takes weapon-makers to produce a new generation of arms. What is most distressing is that the new weapons are sometimes so simple and cheap to produce, making it is even harder to prevent their proliferation. In his Summa Technologiae, Stanislaw Lem asked, "Who causes what? Technology us, or rather we the technology? Does technology take us where it wants to, possibly even to our doom, or are we able to force it to submit to our endeavors?... Technology gives us means and tools; the good or bad way we use them is either to our credit or our guilt." Today there is a real possibility that weapons of mass destruction will be used by a malicious technocrat, just like computer hackers carry out acts of sabotage. A nuclear war between superpowers or a global war can be accidentally triggered by an intricate chain of events there have been many scenarios written for such unintentional start of a world war. Here it is appropriate to recall that there are approximately one billion pieces of small arms in the world. These arms cause hundreds of deaths every day most of the victims being civilians, women and children. Proposals have been made to completely stop work in a number of fields of science in order to avoid global cataclysm. It is probable that in certain cases work must be stopped if it is fraught with the appearance of new means of destruction. However, one should not forget that it was the progress in the natural sciences that helped to drastically increase the quality of life and life expectancy and resolve many problems facing mankind, including in the spheres of medicine, transportation, communications, and many other. It is not less important that the study of nature helps us to reveal dangers previously unknown and find ways of averting or combating them. For example, astronomers have begun monitoring celestial objects that have a possibility of colliding with our planet, and in the near future means to destroy or deflect them will be developed. This too is thanks to progress in science. We are acquiring more knowledge about other phenomena occurring in deep space, such as strong radiation blasts. Nuclear, and possibly thermonuclear, power plants, along with renewable energy sources, will help mankind resolve the problem of depleting fossil fuel resources. Sciences are addressing such problems as ozone holes, environmental pollution, and recovery of atmospheric oxygen. The development of virology, genetics, and related sciences will help protect mankind from mutating viruses that can cause deadly epidemics. It will be extremely undesirable if mankind finds itself in the position of the dinosaurs whose brains did not evolve up to the level sufficient to help them repel the danger

Chapter 1

19

that beset them. The recently created Doomsday Seed Vault containing 4.5 million food seeds put to safe storage deep within an Arctic mountain in the remote Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard will hardly help save humanity is the worst comes to the worst. Of course, it is far from easy to comprehend the paths of scientific or economic progress and predict the dangerous consequences that may arise. The evolution sometimes acquires extremely complicated forms, and many studies have led into such entangled labyrinths that one must take spend years and enormous mental effort to being oriented there. For the vast majority of the population, and even for governmental leaders, it is difficult to predict the consequences of the development of one or another field of science. Moreover, the thirst for knowledge and the desire to be first will often cause a pioneer to forget about possible dangers15. The researcher is primarily motivated by the desire to gain a comprehension of the unknown and is far from always able to acknowlDoomsday Seed Vault in Norway edge all the possible applications of the discovery being made. The general public and politicians require a clearer understanding of what is going on and, if necessary, must take measures to avert potential threats. Who will need these marvelous discoveries on a planet reduced to ash? See Chapter 13 for more details about some cutting-edge technologies. Chaos Theory and Synergetics Numerous attempts are being made at using a scientific approach to predicting the future. Some of the phenomena and regularities that govern our lives can be quantified, and paths of development can thus be foreseen, with which is possible with a certain degree of certainty to forecast what will happen in a month, a year, or several years. Other phenomena are of spontaneous character, are impossible to predict, and often contradict or overturn well-established theories. It is most difficult (almost impossible) to predict the future of complex systems, i.e., systems the functioning of which is governed by many factors or, as researchers say, many parameters. The theory of such systems' development has been studied in much detail over the last several decades. , This is instability theory or nonequilibrium system dynamics, "synergetics" (the Greek for "combined action")16 17 . When a complex system is no longer able to live by its old laws, it mutates into a state of instability or chaos. The old definition of chaos was that it was a state characterized by complete disorder bereft of regularities, but the modern theory studies chaos along with ways of moving from it toward new and stable (at least for some time) forms of order. "It is precisely chaos that gives birth to the new order," as Ilya Prigogine (1917-2003), one of the founders of chaos theory and a Nobel Prize winner, said. These are the moments at which systems arrive at critical levels; for example, such are the conditions of critical pressure or stress in mechanics, which are followed by the system's breakup or collapse (the kind of collapse or breakup is not always a priori defined). As is written in "The Synergetic Paradigm" (Progress-Traditsiya Publishing House, Moscow, 2002), "Synergetics is a modern theory to describe the evolution of large, supercomplex, open, thermodynamically nonequilibrium, nonlinear dynamic feedback systems Belonging to such systems are the universe, the self-developing nature, human society, and the effects of its material and spiritual culture." The weather is an example of a multicomponent and difficult-to-predict system. It depends on numerous factors, including ones that are seem insubstantial, and even local weather cannot be forecast for a period longer than one or several weeks. There was a time in the history of physics, mathematics, and the other natural sciences when it was believed that it was possible to define the existing world exactly, to predict its future, and to define its status at any given
Once during the Manhattan project physicist Enrico Fermi exclaimed: "Devil knows what, but what a marvelous physics!" Here it is appropriate to recall that at the moment when the first American nuclear bomb was tested, there were concerns that chain reaction would not strop and would cause a global cataclysm. According to Niels Bohr estimates, the probability of atmospheric detonation was three millionth. Similar concerns existed before the H-bomb test at Novaya Zemlya and there are differing opinions today about the Large Hadron Collider funded and built as a cooperative effort of several countries. There is a probability, though small, that experiments with LHC might lead to catastrophic consequences. 16 The property of an integral object is the appearance of new, often unexpected qualities, which are not possessed by any of its constituent parts. 17 See also "dynamic chaos theory."
15

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

20

moment of time. Supporting this belief was, for example, the success in astronomy, through which the eclipses of the Sun and Moon could be predicted many years ahead of time. The dominant concept was determinism, i.e., the definitiveness and univocality of the future: "God does not play dice." It was believed that, with a sufficiently powerful computer and a formula describing all the processes in nature, it would be possible to determine what existed at any given moment in the past and what will happen in the future. However, further investigations demonstrated that the evolution of complex and multicomponent systems often leads to a state of instability or chaos, in which case the system's subsequent development becomes virtually unpredictable, following as it may any one of a large number of scenarios that cannot be a priori defined. As applied to human society, a graphic example of this is an economic crisis, social explosion or revolution: growing contradictions finally bring the established social order to a collapse, i.e., instability leads to chaos. Following such a breaking point, society's further development is multivariant and unpredictable; seemingly insignificant factors may play a decisive role. One thousand years before the birth of Christ, the Earth's population was approximately 10 million people, two thousand years ago it was 50-100 million, in 1900 it was 1.7 billion, and now it is around 7 billion. There are different predictions as to when it will hit 10 billion. Except for times of major disasters, such as wars and epidemics (not shown on the figure18) the planet's population has been growing at an increasing pace. The system is getting close to "saturation," and changes in the development pattern are imminent. At this point we cannot make Population Growth and Some Possible Variants of the Future any detailed predictions as to how exactly this will happen. In chaos theory, the points where a system becomes unstable and may further develop along one of several possible paths are called bifurcations. Life and the evolution of complex systems involve a series of bifurcations and trajectories; at each bifurcation, there exists a possibility for the system to "choose" between several trajectories of further development. The figure below schematically illustrates the evolution of a complex system. The horizontal axis shows elapsed time, and the vertical axis shows a characteristic parameter, "n," which is definitive of the system's state. As applied to a civilization, the planet's population (or some other parameter) can be chosen as such a characteristic parameter. All branches are possible, but only one of them will be realized. The choice of a branch or path often depends on fluctuations (slight and seemingly insignificant variations) of the system's characteristic factors. Segments between bifurcations correspond to periods of the system's development along straight trajectories; these are periods of stability in which it is possible to make exact forecasts. Periods of stability alternate with periods of chaos (bifurcations) in which the system shifts from one stable state into another stable state. A scenario planning technique to control the development of complex systems has been in existence since the 1950s. It involves analysis of different variants and developing scenarios of responding to them. The method's scope of applications includes the planning of business and industrial activities. Decision-making is based upon a review of a set of variants. It is important that such review should include not only highly probable (from the analyst's point of view) variants, but also speculative and unusual suppositions: "Think the unthinkable," as Herman Kahn, one of the pioneers of scenario planning, taught in his classes. Prigogine's studies and numerous historical facts confirm the correctness of this approach. Of course, the additional costs associated with preparations for "strange" variants evoke criticisms from many opponents, which represents one of the complexities of the problem. Civilization is a system that possesses intelligence. Various events, such as economic crises, unexpected moves by government leaders or other influential people, scientific discoveries, natural or manmade disasters, etc., have the potential to affect the future of mankind. As shown in the figure on page 20, the future options
18 Plagues and devastating wars in Europe in the 14th and 15th centuries caused the population to shrink by approximately 30%. Nevertheless, these and other such episodes did not affect the overall dynamics of the Earth's population growth, which is shown in the figure.

Chapter 1

21

for mankind include both controlled, sustainable development and continued growth accompanied by largescale space settlement. The limit to the Earth's population will depend on the level of consumption and comforts people agree to allow themselves. The Earth's available resources are sufficient to provide a high quality of life (by modern-day standards) for several billion people over the next 100-150 years. With a further advance of science and technology (the development of resource-saving technologies), the number of people who can be maintained in a comfortable standard of living without depleting the planet's resources may increase. Such positive developments would be, for example, the creation of a vehicle for personal transport weighting less than 1 ton (the average weight of a modern car) or the replacement of oil and gas with alternative energy sources. With improvement in the quality of life in the backward and developing countries, the tempo of population growth there is likely to slow down, which will ultimately result in an overall decrease of the population. A smooth transition to a phase of sustainable development may take some time, probably equal to the collective lifespans of several generations. How will we manage to drag ourselves through this period of 100-150 years, given that adverse trends are gaining momentum so rapidly in the meantime? Also shown in the figure on page 20 is the worst variant of future development a global conflict involving weapons of mass destruction19. Such a global conflict might leave part of mankind alive to ultimately build a new, revived civilization, or the human genetic base might be destroyed. Although it is difficult to forecast how events would develop, the distinguishing feature of human civilization is its intelligence; capability of analyzing its own development; and, or at least it so seems, capability of influencing its own development. Unfortunately, the latter capability is hampered by lack of agreement and conflicts between people. Will we manage to forego our secondary interests, overcome threats, plan our future, and ultimately achieve a sustainable civilization, or will trends toward spontaneous and uncontrollable development gain the upper hand? This subject of course has been commented on before, for instance: "Men cannot predict the course of events or details of history. But they are well able to see threats awaiting them in the immediate future, which is sufficient for formulating a code of prohibitions to diminish the negative effect of potential difficulties, sometimes even to avert them, thus increasing homo sapiens' level of stability as a biological species" (Nikita Moiseyev, full member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 1917-2000)20. Although our future is uncertain and multivariant, by using a proper approach it is still possible to determine out the most desirable and realistic trends that can be controlled. As Zbigniew Brzezinski said, "human society is a very complicated system capable of experiencing numerous bifurcations (explosive changes) giving birth to new and unpredictable directions of evolution."
Several examples of bifurcations in the recent history of Russia. In the early 20th century, due to internal discord, lost war, political terrorism and a number of other factors, Russia was pushed beyond its threshold of stability: "those at the time cannot rule like before, while those on the bottom do not want to live like before." As Ilya Prigogine wrote, "The end of the Tsarist regime could have taken different forms, the course that was followed being the result of numerous factors, such as the tsar's lack of foresight, the unpopularity of his wife, the weakness of Kerensky, and the violence of Lenin. It was this microstructure, this 'fluctuation,' that determined the outcome of the crisis and, thus, the events that followed." The Bolshevik regime came into power quite unexpectedly, but after that point determined the development of the Soviet Union for a long time. Moiseyev wrote that "If Lenin and Trotsky had not arrived in St. Petersburg in the summer of 1917, the October Revolution would not have occurred, as the Bolshevik Party Central Committee had voted against an armed uprising. History would have developed along a completely different path. Perhaps there would have been no Civil War and no Stalinism." A notable crisis (bifurcation) occurred in the late 1980s the so-called Perestroika. The country could not continue to live by the old laws: Neither did its internal situation Evolution of a complex system
19 Exponential progress both in population growth and new technologies, such as microelectronics, IT, robotics, nanotechnologies, etc. is characteristic of our epoch. In other words, our world is moving toward the asymptote of a developmental curve, a singularity where qualitative changes are destined to occur. There are a number of theoretical works devoted to assessment of the probability of global catastrophe. According to these studies, the probability for a global catastrophe to occur by the middle of this century ranges from 25 to 50% or even higher. 20 The idea of the uncertainty of mankind development was expressed much earlier. For example, French philosopher Gustave Le Bon wrote in 1895 that "The present epoch is a transitional and anarchic one. It is not easy to predict the outcome of this period, which necessarily bears a chaotic nature. What societies will come replace us? At present, we do not know."

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

22

In order to achieve a higher level of futurological investigation, it is essential to develop interdisciplinary studies and establish closer ties between different fields of study. The rapid progress of science over the last centuries has been accompanied by further differentiation and specialization of disciplines. Though it is believed to simplify matters for researchers, such overspecialization is at present hampering further development, especially in the study of complex systems. It is well known that truly novel discoveries and breakthroughs are made at the intersection of disciplines. In order to be functional, every system has to be inherently consistent, with harmony obtaining between its components. The idea that "everything is connected to everything and everything is in everything" goes back to antiquity and can be found in many philosophical doctrines. The study of the phenomena that govern our lives requires the employment of ideas and methods from different sciences, i.e., going beyond the scopes of individual disciplines, and to creatively analyze the results obtained from different fields of investigation. One recent example is the applicability of the regularities discovered by Prigogine and other researchers for physical chemistry to the social sciences. It is often impossible to study complex objects in full detail and in all their nuances unless methods from different disciplines are used. "Study of complex systems in their development is only possible using an interdisciplinary approach... This helps integrate fragmented pictures of the world generated by individual disciplines into a comprehensive scientific view of the world" (Academician Vyacheslav Styopin). It is important that modern tendencies "stimulate exchanges between the natural, technical and social sciences thus helping to build bridges between them," which serves to promote the creation of a harmonic interdisciplinary picture of the world the cognitive science. Interestingly, Karl Marx also wrote about the prospects of integration of the human and natural sciences: "Natural

permit this, nor could the country go on with the burden of the Cold War. The result was that the country completely changed its patterns of development, including in the economy, politics, social and demographic policies, geopolitics, military policy, and the state system. There was a variety of coincidental factors, events, personalities, external forces, and so forth that could have directed the country along one or other path. We know which variant was ultimately realized (and many think that it was not the best one). Today it is impossible to predict the "winds of the future" and say what our prospects are for the next 20-30 years or more (however, 10-15 year look-aheads are made and published rather often). In Russia and elsewhere in the world, singular points (or bifurcations) are economic crises which often cause radical changes in various facets of life. One graphic example is the Great Depression of the 20th century which triggered such political phenomena as fascism and the unleash of World War II. The approach described above is also illustrated in the reports of the National Intelligence Council of the United States: "Global Trends: Dialog with Nongovernmental Experts on the Future" (see Chapter 17). The reports outlines the following trends that might develop in the near future: Political upheavals in the East, the formation of an antiWestern terrorist coalition, global epidemics, economic crises, the formation of coalitions of the Russia-China-India type, etc. Each of these trends might appear, develop, fade away, or serve to catalyze other processes that cannot be foreseen at this point. It is not possible to extrapolate such processes or the development of the system as a whole for a lengthy interval of time. Development will depend on individual actions, coincidental events of various sorts, natural phenomena, and scientific discoveries. An optimal response would be action aimed at influencing events so that the "system" develops in a desired and favorable direction. This, of course, does not exclude the possibility of making exact predictions over limited time intervals. Returning to determinism, I would like to stress again that a synergetic, probabilistic approach must be used for studying both natural phenomena and the evolution of society. A statement made in 1986 by the prominent mathematician Sir James Lighthill is indicative: "We collectively wish to apologize for having misled the general educated public by spreading ideas about the determinism of systems satisfying Newton's laws of motion that, after 1960, were proved incorrect." Prigogine commented on this that it was an unexpected statement, for "everyone makes mistakes and apologizes for them, but there is something extraordinary in someone apologizing on behalf of the entire scientific community for having promulgated false ideas over three centuries Nonequilibrium is becoming the core notion in our perception of the nature. Nonequilibrium not only leads to order or chaos, but also makes it possible for unique events to occur We did not choose the world we explore; we were born into this world and we should perceive it as it is"21.

21 The following are excerpts from the Ilya Prigogine's Letters to Future Generations, which were published shortly before the author's death: "I would like to suggest arguments designed to fight against feelings of resignation and powerlessness. The future is not given. As Immanuel Wallerstein wrote: 'It is possible possible but not certain to create or to construct a more human, more egalitarian world that is better anchored in material rationality.' In general, bifurcations are at once a sign of instability and a sign of vitality in a given society... Will globalization be characterized by peace and democracy, or by overt or disguised violence? It is up to future generations to create the fluctuations that will give direction to the event corresponding to the advent of the information society. We are in a period of fluctuations in which individual action remains essential. It is up to man as he is today with his problems, his pains, and his joys to see to it that he survives into future generations. The task at hand is to find the narrow path between globalization and the preservation of cultural pluralism, between violence and politics, and between a culture of war and one of reason. These are heavy responsibilities. However, I remain optimistic. I trust that such necessary fluctuations will emerge that the dangers that we perceive today may be successfully navigated."

Chapter 1

23

science will ultimately embrace the human sciences to the extent that the human sciences will embrace natural science. It will be one science." 22. How Long Do Civilizations Last? (See also Appendix 1) I would now like to present another (possibly more questionable) argument to support the general idea that mankind must do something special in order to survive. The theory exists that civilizations are a priori unstable and cannot last for long. Why, after all, have we still not obtained any verifiable information regarding the existence of nonhuman civilizations, despite the universe's age of billions of years? It is likely that conditions suitable for life exist on many planets, and in many cases these conditions are likely to have appeared much earlier than on Earth. Therefore, the probability is high that sentient beings should appear there as a result of evolution. Such beings would use electricity, nuclear energy, radio communications, and ultimately travel into space. Did they perhaps develop in an unstable fashion, and so suffered collapse? It is particularly alarming that means of communication capable of sending information-carrying signals deep into space and the means of civilizational self-destruction appeared on our planet almost simultaneously. Unstable systems characterized by limited lifetimes are well known, but it is often possible to extend them, and even to stabilize them, with the help of special methods. Does life necessarily appear on planets with suitable conditions? Does the evolution of living beings necessarily lead to sentient ones? Does extraterrestrial intelligence share much with that of homo sapiens, and what happens in the next stages of the development of intelligence and civilization? We do not know how wide or narrow may be the range of conditions suitable for the development of life and intelligence or what the proportion of regularity to chance in evolution is. We also do not know how stellar cataclysms though these are quite rare phenomena may impact on sentient beings and civilizations23? Here it is interesting to note that it was only after billions of years of preceding evolution that human civilization entered into an "explosive" epoch (which is still only several hundred years old) characterized by such processes as rapid population growth, accumulation of knowledge, and increase of potential for destruction (see Footnote 16). Obviously, such "explosive" development cannot continue for a long time, and will either lead to a cataclysm, reach a saturation point, or decelerate to a moderate pace. The question of our future is a fundamental questions that we are at present unable to answer and should become a matter of special concern. (See the Appendix for more details). Civilizations have appeared and then passed away a number of times; the latter, fortunately, never on a global scale. Some perished so suddenly that the reason for this eludes us24. The crises of our epoch may represent, as it were, the birth pains of a new civilization fundamentally different from the present one. Birth pains, however, may end in life or death, and in our case the outcome will strongly depend on how well the process will proceed. With all that has been achieved, our civilization, if it manages to overcome the problems facing it, may have a marvelous future a world where every person will have the opportunity to choose a fulfilling and enjoyable occupation; be free and healthy; and live a longer, active life. Life expectancy has doubled as a result of the progress of the last 150 years (in the developed countries) and quadrupled compared to that of primeval people. Now, after 50 years of the space age, only a few steps separate us from the immense resources of outer space. By moving production into space, mankind will resolve the problems of environmental pollution and depletion of the planet's natural resources. Building bases on the Moon, colonizing space, and expeditions to Mars are already being discussed, and many of these projects will probably be realized in this century. The development of space will provide mankind with new sources of energy, metals, and minerals. Affordable space flights may become a reality in the near future: It is not unlikely that in, say, 10-20 years there will be hundreds, or even thousands, of people working and vacationing in space. Who knows what will happen in the next centuries and millennia if we manage to do away with crises, military conflicts and the risks, losses, and costs associated with them? The possibility that people will find ways to improve biologically to expand the range of conditions suitable for their form of life cannot be ruled out. At

22 Active studies of complex systems attempting to achieve a synthesis of exact and humanitarian sciences are performed in the Santa-Fe Institute (SFI) in the United States. The institute was established about 25 years ago. Focusing on humanitarian, natural and exact sciences, the institute studies mathematical history, linguistics, economics, biology, physics and chemistry, evolution of the Universe, evolution of stock markets, evolution of cities, etc. The institute invites both American scientists and scientists from other countries. 23 It cannot be ruled out that at a certain, very high, level of development, civilizations may grow capable of protecting themselves from the most horrible cataclysms. 24 The following is an excerpt from a research paper on the stability of flourishing civilizations: "The creative minority is elated with victory, and so begin to sit on their laurels and worship the values of the moment as absolute values. In so doing they lose their charisma and the masses stop following and emulating them. As a result, force is needed increasingly often... The minority... becomes involved in wars, they become slaves to stale dogmas and lead themselves and their civilization to their doom" (Pavel Gurevich, Culturology, M.: Gardariki, 1999).

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

24

present, it is difficult to predict such a distant future. Before anything else, mankind needs to resolve its problems which tend to exacerbate in this century. In concluding this chapter, I would like to note that scenarios envisioned for can be divided into two groups. Belonging to the first group are scenarios involving spontaneous and unpredictable events, quite possibly leading to tragic consequences, while the second represents variants in which people are actively influencing the course of history by implementing certain projects (examples of such projects are given in the last chapter). The scenarios of the second group are characterized by a much higher probability of a favorable outcome with sustainable development of human civilization. Andrei Sakharov was a man who set a great example to follow. A brilliant academician and founder of several exceptionally complicated areas of science and technology, he, at the peak of his career, took the great risk of fighting alone against the Soviet system and played a decisive role in putting an end to the Cold War and averting dangers facing the entire world. For civilization to survive, politicians, scientists, and public figures must contribute their intelligence, labor, and courage. I would like to call as many people as possible to join ranks in combating the current problem, as has more than once happened in history in response to the call "The Motherland [now, the whole planet] is in danger!"

Chapter 2

25

Chapter 2

Psychology
The primary cause of all the problems facing mankind lies, to a certain degree, in people's consciousness and patterns of behavior in the psychology and mindset that have developed in the process of evolution. People often follow the innate or acquired instincts. In former times many such instincts contributed to the survival and well-being of the human species, but they may also lead to undesirable consequences when conditions change. People feel part of a community, with its conditional rituals and, in the case of a nation, part of a territory, language, history, or ethnicity. In a crowd, the behavior of an individual may change radically, as he or she copies those nearby, often thinking little if his actions are correct or in accordance with the law. Cases are not so rare in which people adhere to myths, worship their leaders, idealize them, make Gods of them and are even prepared to die for them.
n searching for the primary causes of present-day troubles and looming problems we should, first of all, analyze our perception and mindset, which developed as we evolved. Human styles of behavior and ways of thinking have been dominated by major motivating factors: the desire to survive, reproduce, and provide for ourselves, our families, and our community. To a great extent, in their behavior people yield to instincts that sometimes contribute to the prosperity of the human species, but sometimes lead to undesirable consequences. The peculiarities of each individual psychology are dominated by two basic factors, genes and the environment; the impact of each of these varies for each person. The greatest chance to survive exists for those groups of people whose mindset works mostly for survival and getting adjusted to new conditions. Consequently, the issue of behavior and mindset responding adequately to the changing world is critical for the global community to survive. It seems within our capacity to modify these factors by means of developing adequate attitudes, upbringing, education, and culture. (It is possible that mankind will also manipulate the human genetic program to modify its mindset). This chapter basically reviews the peculiarities of individual psychology and how radically it changes when a person is in a community or in a crowd. Mindset Mindset (Latin entalis, "mental") is the attitude of the mind and its perception of the world; it includes a combination of concepts, a set of goals, a character, and a style of behavior. It is to a great extent developed during the first 10-15 years of life, the most important of which are the first several years when the mind becomes capable of human reasoning1. To a great extent, the mindset is dominated by the environment: the way you are brought up by your parents and school, your living conditions, the influence of separate "strong personalities," and the mass media: the resulting character is affected by the intensity of the innate instincts and the power and duration of the subsequent influences. Genetically determined abilities and attitudes can be developed further or, vice versa, extinguished2. The degree of religiosity or patriotism and one's attitude to work, to other people, and other factors and styles of behavior styles are copied by young people from those around them and from models in the mass media. There is a Chinese saying that "We sow a habit and reap a character; we sow a character and reap a destiny." (In computer terminology, we can say that the environment and upbringing are software an operating system and it programs the genetically built-in hardware, inherited abili-

If the first several years of a child's development have been lost, then a common human mindset cannot be actually developed afterward. It is well known that a small child becomes an animalistic creature if deprived of human intercourse and, for instance, happens to be in a pack of animals. The mind of an infant develops into that of a normal adult only if it functions and develops in the course of the first years of life. The young of many animals are in a similar situation--they are not able to survive in the world of nature if, in the beginning of their life, they are not trained to hunt and to deal with enemies. 2 From the press "Our genes do not look like a rigid program which has to be strictly observed by the body. It is more like a draft of an outline for a person to sometimes stick to and sometimes to deviate from significantly." (It is interesting that within monkeys, our close relatives, the number of individuals genetically prone to alcoholism is approximately same as with human beings, which is explained by the similarity of the genetic structure).

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

26

ties, computing means). Of course, the mind changes throughout all of life, sometimes A great deal. The new acquired features can be handed down to the following generations3. Human beings are social creatures, and the unique life style of a group of people, of a community, creates such things as the mindset of a class, nation, and country. Basically they are dominated by traditions, a history, a social system, a religion, geopolitical conditions, and leaders' charisma. We differentiate Slavic, Anglo-Saxon, Islamic, Chinese, and other mindsets. Or: democratic, extremist, monarchic, etc mindsets. It is common to talk about "national nature (character),"4, the "national soul," and the "national, public consciousness." The notion of "ethnic psychology" also exists. Earlier, when the planet was not that populated, small provinces, cities, counties, and kingdoms used to live in isolation; each of the communities used to have their own traditions, their own "national soul," in some ways. The mindsets of the countries and nations changed extremely slowly, over many generations, as a rule. Today, ancient traditions and life style are still maintained in tribes isolated from the rest of the world. As transportation, communications, and migration develop, much information about the life styles, cultural peculiarities, and behavior of people from other regions, almost from all the world, becomes easily accessible. Other nations' traditions impact on one's own mindset and habitual style of behavior. In contemporary history, when changes in many spheres of life are taking place rapidly, we know many cases of radical transformations of the "national consciousness" of entire nations within a quite short historical time frame. Aggressiveness Aggressiveness is one of the major behavior properties that developed in the course of evolution. In wide terms it means activeness, persistency, assertion, rivalry, bravery, adventurism, expansionism, and desire to dominate, control the surrounding world and urge to a sexual partner; in some respects it means even violence, intolerance, and impudence. In many cases we may have such associated properties like selfishness and excessive ambition. The struggle for survival, for resources, for propagation, and for territory would determine a way of behavior aimed at suppressing, subduing or killing other creatures, including members of one's own species5. There is a strong similarity between the animal and human instincts6. Aggressiveness proved to be good for survival, and this is apparently why people often demonstrate their best abilities and aptitudes while being in a state of rage or while committing a brutal act7. In many cases an inclination to initiate or provoke conflicts, as well as a desire to feel satisfaction from victory, makes itself felt8. James Madison, one of the founders of the American social system (established in the 18th century and proven to be successful after several centuries) wrote that the "viciousness of the human race causes great circumspection, prudence and distrust but there are other properties of the human nature along with that which deserve respect and trust." Austrian academician Konrad Lorenz wrote: "Aggressiveness is the innate, instinct-determined, trait of all higher animals. There are sound reasons to conclude that intraspecific aggressiveness represents the most serious danger for humanity at the modern stage of cultural, historical and technical development." The popularity of television programs, movies, and books showing and describing brutal crimes, as well as their wide distribution and high ratings, is not an accident. This is proved to be correct by the fact of how interested many people are in watching public executions; variety and refinement of the scaffold practiced in the course of history;
This concerns various mechanisms of genetic inheritance, of acquired reflex and behavior style development and establishment , with or without modification of the DNA code. 4 Often, the Russian nature and mindset are compared to American. An American should always try to smile and respond with "fine!" to all "How are yous?", whereas a Russian will say "normal" usually or "OK" quite often. In the United States, it is not common to discuss your problems, whereas in Russia everything can be discussed, including how "bad things are in the country in general." Perhaps the former is related to Protestant ethics, according to which a person should live happily and be cheerful, whereas Russian Orthodox ethics are based on suffering and feeling guilty to some degree. 5 "Each biological species strives to reduce the variety of species inhabiting the ecosystem, and thus to assert its monopoly" (Valentina Sukhomlinova, ecologist). 6 Vyacheslav Skosar wrote in his study on the nature of animal aggressiveness that "intraspecies aggression is a special species-preservation function. Intraspecies aggression leads to the formation of a hierarchy within a group of animals or an animal population, which, in turn, increases the chances for survival for the animal group or population. Each individual animal tries to achieve a higher position in the hierarchy, which means better access to food and females of the species. It is advantageous for an animal population that its strongest members gain more space and more females." In the same study, Skosar wrote about human beings that they "are one of the most aggressive species, who, in a state of rage, will kill each other." 7 According to Stanislaw Lem, "We are distinguished for our asymmetrical attitude to evil and good because our predecessors practiced cannibalism. The predecessor of homo sapiens was progressed in his evolution faster, as he was hunting for those equal to himself in terms of quickwittedness: an insufficiently fast hunter for those similar to himself would have died quickly.". 8 British historian Niall Ferguson wrote: "People would not have warred if they had not developed such a habit and if they had not had a certain liking for that."
3

Chapter 2

27

excitement, which can even be called satisfaction of those who watched gladiatorial combats9 or contemporary professional fighters: boxing, "ultimate fighting," etc. A person observing such scenes can, of course, reject or interrupt them, but with many people the assumption develops that such actions are allowed and are even a source of training for criminal behavior. Human beings are one of the few creatures capable of deriving satisfaction from torturing and killing: sadism not being all that rare. Cruelty encouraged from above may be of a mass nature: there is killing for ethnic or national reasons wars, genocides, and holocausts and killing of civilians during military operations and seizure of foreign territories10. It may be for religious or social reasons, such as in the case of crusades and civil wars. Aggressiveness and cruelty are encouraged and cultivated in the military and in criminal groups. Today, the use of fanatics and shahids, the purpose of which is mass murder, is becoming more widespread. The phenomenon of learned aggression also exist: someone who has murdered, killed, or carried out cruel actions repeatedly, for example, during war, and become accustomed to them, is ready to do so again. In many cases such people require psychological adjustment. The introduction of advanced means of destruction contributes to a wider spread of aggressiveness. Moreover, killing people today is much simpler as one does not have to see the victim's sufferings; a single act of pushing a button will cause the deaths of thousands somewhere far away. Aggressiveness can be stimulated by different factors alcohol, drugs, noise, crowded conditions, heat, and sexual excitement. The aggressiveness of an armed person is increased because his feeling of his physical condition, as well as of his own impunity, is stronger (or because he overestimates himself). In addition to stimulants, there are pharmacological products that reduce aggressiveness down to the point of indifference. Men are more prone to aggression than women. Natural aggressiveness can be controlled or eliminated by education, examples of behavior by loved ones (especially at an early age), by moral traditions, social (public) laws, and agencies responsible for making sure that these laws are observed. In international relations it is controlled by international agreements and peacekeeping organizations. To find a safe outlet for aggression, we use athletic competitions and games (a popular and widespread contemporary genre, including computer games that provide an option for savage fighting, war and killing). The industry of "Virtual Reality" promotes games of the "kill-or-be-killed" type. The inherited demand for negative emotions and overcoming difficulties may transform into a desire to take risks: after tiring of a quiet life, people look for adventures in dangerous voyages or actions fraught with mortal. Sometimes it is said that a long quiet life and well-being may cause "free-floating search activity" in the case of many people, in which they search for danger and conflict. As Professor Akop Nazaretian has said, "To a great extent, the reasons for wars are psychological; they are caused by hidden properties of the human psyche. Therefore, periodically people have a need for strong negative emotions. Domestic arguments, wars, gambling, and drugs satisfy that need." Cultural development controls the inherited aggressiveness; civilization tries to balance behavior instincts and the interests of society, but unfortunately it cannot eliminate expressions of cruelty completely. The total number of people murdered in a number of countries is approaching the number killed in wars. However, a significant part of those murders is conducted not with the purpose of gaining something, but a result of an emotional impulse, a burst of anger. Applicable norms and standards of behavior vary within a wide range depending on country and epoch, including the system of raising children, the behavior of those around, traditions, impact of the mass media, etc. According to a recent statistical survey, the average death toll of violent crimes (calculated as the number of people killed per year per every 100,000 of the population) is about 20 in Russia, about 6 in the United States, 2.8 in the Czech Republic, and two in Poland. The risk of being attacked in New York is 200 times higher than in Tokyo. The issues that motivate warfare are very close to the problem of aggressiveness. Apart from the economic and political interests of nations and the intentions and ambitions of the elite and government, the aforementioned aggressive and destructive trends typical for human beings are significant contributing factor. This might well be characteristic of the leaders of the world powers competing for dominance or those who decide to attack at the threat of losing superiority11. Mankind has tried to use different mechanisms to keep war under control nonaggression treaties, marriages between members of ruling families, and the establishment of international organizations designed to
9

In the Roman Coliseum, in the time of its functioning between the 1st and the 5th centuries, several hundreds of thousands of people were killed gladiators, criminals, etc., including women and children for the entertainment of the public. 10 Former commander of a naval infantry unit Alexander Yakovlev (who died recently) used to say about the psychology of a soldier that "War has belittled a man, pushing him into the condition of a beast; we had our instincts controlling abilities gradually die away Alcohol intoxication and brutality were turning young people into zombies" (interview, Novaya Gazeta, 78, 2005). 11 It is well known that there are people who accept saying "after us the deluge" for their motto. In other words, they hunt for short-term benefits at the expense of inevitable losses in a longer run. Such attitudes often get the better of those beset by thoughts of their inevitable death, especially while facing high risks or getting old.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

28

settle conflicts in a peaceful way. Often, however, the aggressive trends have been stronger. (See Appendix 2 for Siegmund Freud quotes on the nature of violence). Has evolution contributed to optimal development of the human race? On the one hand, it caused many negative phenomena deadly struggles and growing environmental problems. However, on the other hand, scientific and technological development have resulted in the radical extension of the human lifespan and improvement in quality of life, at least for more than a billion people in the developed countries. Will our civilization manage to survive and to move on to sustainable development with high living standards for all, in which case all sacrifices made on the way could be justified and subsumed under the problems of growth and the price paid for the establishment of a new, humane, civilization? Group and Community Psychology; The Laws of Mob Psychology The behavior of an individual changes radically in a crowd. First of all, the feeling of responsibility decreases and a feeling of anonymity, which is a source of impunity, forms. One's assessment of one's strength and abilities becomes heightened, and there exists an illusion of omnipotence along with a loss of common sense. The person becomes almost hypnotically suggestible, amenable, impersonalized, yielding to others' opinions and moods.. It is well known how easily laughter, tears, anger, panic, etc. are passed on to those around. Self-control diminishes. Sometimes it is enough for just a few aggressive individuals instigators, provocateurs, the mentally unbalanced to be present for the crowd to follow their behavior. As the end of the 19th century French philosopher Gustave Le Bon wrote: "The conscious personality vanishes, and feelings and ideas of individual people forming an integrity called a 'crowd' travel in one and the same direction. A collective soul is created, which is, of course, of temporary nature. The desire to immediately turn suggested ideas into action is what is most characteristic of an individual in a crowd." It is also the case that it is futile, sometimes even dangerous, to address the crowd with a reasonable speech and argue with it logically. It will not respond to common-sense reasoning and listen to admonitions, but, instead, will easily follow shouts or bright and descriptive gestures. The Russian psychophysiologist Vladimir Bekhterev pointed out the role played by the density of the crowd, of how tightly it is packed elbow to elbow, body to body which all increases collective interaction12. Excitement and, as a consequence, action can reach an extreme if the crowd leaders' are proficient in sloganeering and the members of the crowd fill each other with fury. As another fin-de-siecle French philosopher, JeanGabriel Tarde, said, "a crowd is a mass of various elements that are not familiar to each other. A mere spark of flame jumping from one person to another will electrify this inharmonious mass, this suddenly forming itself into a spontaneously generated organization. The fragmented material becomes something monstrous, seeking its target with uncontrollable stubbornness." At the same time, it can become panic-stricken (even in military groupings) and

Moscow, Center, Okhotny Ryad Street (from Izvestia, July, 2002

12

An instance of mass neuroinduction in result of "psychic infection" was described by Bekhterev in 1903 in his book Neuroinduction and Its Role in Social Life.

Chapter 2

29

permit itself to be destroyed, even if it possesses superior strength. There are also cases of collective hallucination. Even a person with a negative attitude toward the situation will behave like the others (which is sometimes referred to as "psychic contagion" or "collective psychosis"13 ). Only a few people are capable of retaining selfcontrol in a mass of people: "an evil example is infectious." "How can we look for common sense in a crowd? How can you say that a crowd can be reasonable?," Pyotr Chaadayev said in the 19th century. A crowd is more inclined toward destructive and irrational actions. "In hysterics and fear, people will follow any slogan regardless of who is shouting them and from what side, provided that the speaker promises the mass of people that he will to take the hard burden of thinking on himself and assume responsibility. The mass is afraid of this burden and does not want to shoulder it. One can be sure, however, that it will escape neither the burden nor the responsibility" (Erich Maria Remarque). The activity, the "power" of the crowd and sometimes smaller groups under the influence of alcohol or other drugs; we may also have crowds of religious or other fanatics excited by ideas. Cases of barbarous treatment of conquered peoples are well known, including fellow citizens captured during civil wars. On the other hand, cases of mass enthusiasm and heroism have also been seen. "The herd instinct" works in many cases a crowd is similar to a herd of animals in its behavior. "A human being is not a social animal," Professor Igor Bestuzhev-Lada has said, "so much as he is a herd animal exposed to herd instincts, herd consciousness, and herd fashion." Often the participants in such events can not explain why they acted in such a way afterward. It seems that evolution has developed an instinctively driven determination to follow the crowd, relying on the experience (probably successful) of others when information needed for making an independent decision is lacking. The crowd affects the actions of its members, which also contributes to the occurrence of collective crimes, for which the law provides a much more severe responsibility. The Romans used to say about group behavior that "Senatores omnes boni viri, senatus romanus mala bestia" "all senators are honorable men, but the Roman Senate is a wicked animal." In a crowd, all social, class, and ethical barriers to communication are removed: during a football game, an academic will talk to a road sweeper, and a socialist to a conservative. Of course, much research is underway focused on different means to influence the mass. One is incorporation of certain individuals into it who will distract and reorient people at a critical moment. For example, by shouting out "They are coming! They have weapons!" and shooting into the air (or imitating it) at the periphery of the crowd, they can cause panic and disperse the mass. One of the features of a crowd is its rapid mutability; for example, in this case, it quickly moves from aggression to panic. Sometimes, and for exactly the same reason, loud rhythmic music can be switched on, and many will begin to move and sometimes sing along with it; thus, their progress to their target will be broken off. I believe that some American embassies were equipped with such a "musical weapon" as early as the 1960s As Professor Nazaretian has described it, "The crowd roars in response to rhythmic stimuli, giving rise to emotions. Rhythmic claps, drumbeat, rhythmic screams, cries or shouts, arousing songs and gestures these are ways to take control of the crowd and excite it." That is why we have ritual rhythmic dancing, mass synchronized movements of athletes and of militaries during parades, etc. They create an impression of force and the correctness of whatever slogans are being declared at the same time. When you find yourself inside an excited crowd that is acting dangerously, the best way to avoid merging with it is to try to physically remove oneself. Everything said above about collective psychology refers to, first of all, those people who are physically near each other a physically united group, a crowd although similar, less distinctly expressed, trends can be evident in other cases. These are public movements; parties; adherents of the same political or public understanding, religious doctrine, or sect; people of the same social class or ethnic origin; or fans of a single sports team or form of art. An individual feels a part of such a community and its rituals, and in the case of a nation, a part of its territory, language, history, ethnicity, etc. "Letting the conscious personality vanish and feeling and thinking in one and the same way in no way requires several individuals to be in the same place at the same time. Thousands [and millions Evgeny Abramyan] of individuals separated from each other can at certain moments simultaneously find themselves engulfed with strong emotions, for example, on a day when a major national event is celebrated, and, therefore, acquire all the features of an excited crowd. An entire nation may turn into a 'crowd' affected by certain influences without being a crowd in the literal meaning of the word, i.e. physically. Regardless of what personalities they are individually, whatever their lifestyle is, their occupation, character or intellect, just them turning into a crowd is already sufficient for them to develop a type of a collective soul which will make them feel, think, and act in an absolutely different way than they would think, act and feel separately," quoted from Gustave Le Bon.
13

In relation to this, we should keep in mind the thesis of "the indisputable rightness of the collective."

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

30

In addition to the peculiarities of collective behavior described above, desires to expand may play a factor (which can also be the case with individuals) the desire to establish control over neighboring territory, possess others' property, etc. The desire to serve a "great" idea also contributes to many people melting in a community. They look for an authority, a leader to whom they will entrust solution of their difficulties and problems. Young people may see an ideal in a leader whom they would like to emulate once they have chosen an idol many people try to copy him. It is characteristic of a human community to worship and bow to their leader, their idol, when they idealize him, deify him, and even face death with his name on their lips. Veneration and allegiance almost fanatical to the leader, king/tsar/sultan, or spiritual leader is not a rare condition for a crowd, community, or nation. This has contributed to the emergence of totalitarian regimes and national tragedies, including in contemporary history. These properties make it possible to produce shahids. The actions of people, nations, and the crowd are influenced to a greater extent by inherited feelings, instincts, habits, traditions, and religious beliefs, in other words, by the unconscious (subliminal). It should be noted that people also unite under a common threat or common enemies, be they real or imaginary, whereas, as Samuel Huntington says, "the lack of a common enemy uniting allies inevitably leads to aggravation of the disagreements between them." Meetings and demonstrations unite scattered communities. It is easier to unite and influence the masses when there is a possibility of maintaining physical contact with them. This is why we have large mass meetings, demonstrations, torchlight processions, group singing of hymns, and group prayer. On a common impulse, people are capable of actions that would be unacceptable for them separately14. In many cases we have leaders, orators, who can manipulate people, who are capable of believing in even obvious lies when they are in a large group. When deception of an entire population of a country is the project, then in many cases it is done under slogans of patriotism or with the help of other, at first sight, quite reasonable ideas. "The 'will of the nation'," Alexis de Tocqueville said, "seems to be one of those slogans that the intriguers and despots of all times exploited most of all." A community suffering through a serious crisis needs a charismatic leader, a person who can fill them with the belief in their capacity to resolve the problem, often endued with in almost superhuman abilities, which is why he or she is treated as divinely chosen in many cases. Kings and leaders of sects have many times brought people to the razor's edge almost literally: Mass suicide in Guyana, the United States, and pre-Revolutionary Russia. On the island of Bali, when it was conquered by the Dutch, a significant part of the population (tens of thousands of people) committed suicide as a result of yielding to mass psychosis. Once they have found themselves in a sect, many people give it all of their property and may end up in the position of a slave, feeling happy about it all the while. There are many cases of mass victimization of certain people or groups of people, cases of stirring up hatred towards them, due to false accusations; the crowd or community can carry out such actions easily 15. Collective opinion and perception very often become the most important factor in development of hobbies, fashion for art, clothes, behavior styles, and belief in mystics, astrology, and underground healers. Advertising and financial pyramids are based on this psychological property. History is rich in such examples of mass psychosis. "Large social groups suddenly become focused on the same target; million of people are hooked by the same illusion until their attention is drawn by new nonsense that is even more attractive than the previous one" (Mackay, The Most Widely Spread Delusions and Desperations of the Crowd, 1852). In many cases, the reasons for this are the desire and apparent opportunity to make easy money. "Rational nations all of a sudden become desperate gamblers and will risk as much as their own physical existence for the sake of gaining profit from a piece of paper" (Mackay). Mass sales and padding the value of uninsured securities and other financial frauds have taken
14

In this context we can also recall the notion of conformism (Latin conformis "similar," "conformable"), meaning acclimatization, the passive acceptance of existing things and ways, predominant opinions, etc. Conformism is the lack of personal point of view, an unprincipled uncritical aping of the example of whoever is most powerful (the opinion of the majority, a recognized authority, traditions, etc.). 15 In psychiatry and sociology, there is such a notion as mobbing-the persecution of an employee by others or the provocation of an entire team to persecute him. Such actions can take place when management intends to get rid of an employee but does not have any objective justification for doing so: when the employee has become unwanted for some reason, is different from the rest of the team, etc. "It is much simpler to constantly accuse an employee of incompetence and misbehavior; assign him impossible tasks; and, eventually, force him to go" (Mikhail Murashev, one of the experts in this issue).

Chapter 2

31

place in France, England, and other countries ever since the beginning of the 18th century (similar to the frauds which occurred almost three centuries thereafter during the Perestroika in Russia). In the same category of issues, we classify the behavior of adherents of some ideologies that existed for many years, but turned out to be evil later. Examples from recent history include fascist and communist ideology, which caused incalculable suffering. It is interesting that, after many years of genuinely fanatical actions by most German citizens, the majority of them, in virtue of being defeated, were capable of recovering and rejecting the previous behavior style. Such things happen quite often on a smaller scale: forswearing religion, remorse on the part of participants in collective crimes, etc. Today, with the development of information technologies, the psyches and emotions of people can be affected by situations in any spot in the world; information about events and disturbances reaching other regions very quickly and becoming a cause (motive) for not only conscious (supraliminal) rational actions, but for destructive behavior as well. The mass media play a large role in this. (See the following chapter). Development of a future unified global mindset future is becoming an important issue. Of course, it would be good for it to include an understanding of the peculiarities of our civilization's development and an aspiration to save and maintain it. The fact that the human community does not realize the danger it is facing and the priority it places on less significant issues over others falls into line with the concepts of collective behavior. An individual is inclined to "live in accordance with behavioral stereotypes," not to try to "be special, not the way the others are." But life is dynamic and various, changes in all areas of life are happening faster and faster; and what seemed to be right yesterday may be incorrect for a specific individual or specific community today. The commonly accepted opinion of the crowd often turns out to be not only erroneous, but also to result in harm or a catastrophe. To live and think on your own, not using the cues of others and not being carried along by the common flow (but, of course, taking other people's interests into account), would seem to be the most correct way of acting for a modern person, especially in difficult times when facing challenges. In addition, this is not simple to do, because communities, groupings of people treat those who behaves in a nonstandard way negatively. Dislike of an objection to those who are "not like everybody else," sometimes leading to the point of massacre, is another extreme feature of group behavior. This is again a result of evolution for a tribe to survive, they had to be united and its members' actions needed to be predictable. In modern society, the masses and the state are often united in similar situations, because the latter is usually interested in the status quo, and it is "upstarts" who call out for change. A lack of differing opinions narrows the diversity of the system and its adaptive possibilities. In so far as people living before their time are concerned, in many cases they have to wait for time to catch up with them, sometimes in places that are not so comfortable. Such people may be forced into withdrawal or emigration. It should also be noted that many civilizational breakthroughs have happened thanks to those who think in a nonstandard way. However, usually this becomes clear only after time elapsed: it is difficult to quickly understand and accept what contradicts what is commonly accepted, even if it brings progressive change. Nonstandard viewpoints and judgments most often are treated as heresies, although with time passing, in many cases, they become commonly accepted16.
For instance, the traveler Ibn-Faddan said about the morals of the Bulgarians of the 10th century living on the Volga riverbanks that "Whenever they see an active and knowledgeable person, they then say, 'this man must serve God.' Therefore, they put a rope around his neck and hung up on a tree!" Julius Caesar said that "He thinks too much; such people are dangerous." In ancient China it was believed that one of the most important asks of the ruler is to protect his people from knowledge and guard them from education, as knowledge is fraught with danger. It would not be difficult to give more recent examples.

Psychological Illnesses of Civilization It should be noted that the tempo of technological, social, and cultural changes caused by the progress made by civilization is much higher than that of human physiological evolution. For thousands of years, nothing new has been discovered in the human organism, and the brain's ability to comprehend new scientific knowledge continue surprising us. Before, human beings interacted with nature immediately and used it rationally, whereas today they do not take much into account the remote consequences of their activities. We can say that the consciousness and mindset of most people are not adequate to the current realities; without radical changes in education, propaganda, etc., the survival of civilization seems doubtful (also see Chapter 18). Systems to control the psyches of people with access to sophisticated systems of management or weap16

The famous English physicist Ernest Rutherford used to say about the destiny of new extraordinary scientific ideas that first it is said that is not possible; then that there is something in it; and later afterward that it has been known for a long time.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

32

ons are far from perfect. More and more often, we are becoming witnesses of accidents that are caused by the human factor. An abnormal level of excitement on the part of national leaders, which is passed on to the population and sometimes results in inappropriate actions, can also be classed as a psychological problem. Leaders with extraordinary (and maybe, to put it more correctly, abnormal or sick) psyches are capable of influencing the crowd, communities, and even entire nations significantly. There is feedback as well successful control over a huge mass of people inspires the leaders and makes them believe in their "extraordinary" abilities. That such leaders rule countries equipped with contemporary machines and weapons is one of the challenges of the contemporary world. Depression. While moving from the specifics of human group behavior in to the peculiarities of an individual psychology, it should be noted that many people to a large extent live, not in a real, but in an imaginary (distorted) world, seemingly born in their consciousness. The picture of such a world may be the result of life circumstances or be encouraged deliberately from the outside (see the next chapter, on manipulation of consciousness). Such a picture can correspond with reality, or be in the form of myths that do not do so. Extremely large pressures on consciousness cause stress, anxiety, and illness, and a person in many cases becomes incapable of responding to them adequately17. The emerging mental disorders despondency, sensitivity, insomnia, and others lead to illogical actions, as well as to a weakening of the immune system and, as a consequence, to physiological problems and illness. Their causes may be household or family issues, stress at work or health problems. One may have emotional frustrations, a "borderline state," "affective state," "posttraumatic stress disorder," etc. "Neuroses develop up to heavy psychosomatic disorders; peptic ulcers, essential hypertension, and early arteriosclerosis. Everyone has a lowest impedance point (related to genetic peculiarities) where the organism is most easy to fail. No more than 10% of people are reported to be stress-resistant," Professor Tatiana Dmitrieva, director of the State Psychiatric Center, has said. The "mental health of nations" is a basic problem. Rapid changes in many areas of life, information about catastrophes that are continuously broadcast through the mass media, personal problems create sometimes an extremely heavy load on a person's psyche. Quite often we see mental disorders, insomnia, drug addiction, alcoholic psychosis, and suicide attempts; getting increasingly frequent is ludomania or progressive addition to gambling. Statistics show a growth of numbers in all these areas. It is not an accident that there are suicide peaks in such flourishing countries as Sweden, and it is not an accident that a many American citizens meet with psychiatrists on a regular basis, or that many young people have neither ideals nor interest in life. To recover their "mental health," people go to "magicians" or to illegally practicing healers, which is in essence an alternative industry, represented by many thousands of uncertified (and unqualified) "healers" just in Russia alone. All these factors contribute in their way to the general contemporary world instability. Criminal Psychology As was noted above, a leading role in the development of mindset and behavior style is played by the environment the development of attitudes in the family, at school, in sports, or other type of social settings. It is more difficult to develop a positive mindset if there are unfavorable factors, such as genetically inherited diseases or an unfavorable climate at home. Genetically inherited psychological defects, provided they have been discovered in time, in many cases can be corrected in the course of proper upbringing or though medical treatment. However, they can become a permanent feature of an individual in unfavorable situations, such as authoritarian instruction, brutal physical punishment, being a member of a family of drug addicts or alcoholics. Depression, failure to develop and maintain good relations with other people, and psychological antipathy contribute to committing violations of the law. A low level of legal culture or morality can also lead to aggression and crime. Sometimes, especially where it applies to the young, the desire to demonstrate how "cool" one is may be is a driving force too. In childhood one does not always completely realize one's responsibility for what one is doing, the scope of the damage that is being caused, and how heavy (and how likely) punishment may be. Crimes committed by people when they are part of a crowd are in a special class. Crimes can be committed under the impact of traditions existing in this or that particular community, such as blood feuds or shahids. They can also be committed under pressure in criminal groups, cults, etc. Brutality is one of the

17

Internal conflicts of consciousness, discrepancies between what exists and what should exist, sometimes are called the "tilt."

Chapter 2

33

human instincts (see the section Basic Instincts), and there is a wide range of causes and situations in which it can make itself felt18. Other factors contributing to crime may include discontent with life or a gap between desires and the possibilities of making them a reality. Various images of a well-furnished "beautiful" life are affordable for everyone to a greater or lesser degree; they are advertised by the mass media and stimulate the desire to reach that same level. With some people this stimulates entrepreneurship and the search for legal ways to improve life, whereas others may be inspired to do it criminally. The psyche can also change as a result of loneliness or illness, failure in love, or jealousy. In such cases, discontent (dissatisfaction) and internal conflict can be transferred onto those around: the cause seems to be either multiple or faceless, and this is what causes unmotivated crime. The criminal refrains from thinking about the damage caused to the specific victim; repentance occurs much later, if ever. Friedrich Nietzsche wrote that "Brutality is a widely spread feature, and it has played a significant role in the history of mankind." Better-off people in many cases are inclined to crime as well because of envy, ambition, greediness, inclination to taking risks, and conviction of personal impunity. In addition, as French social psychologist Serge Moscovici said, "in a flourishing society everything makes people think that they can do whatever they are personally inclined to and motivates them to succeed even more, to the detriment of others." The affective state is a specific psychological state, or, to be more specific, the state (condition) of the psyche of an individual who is committing a crime, perhaps one as serious as. It is a short-term strong mental disturbance caused by a brutal act of violence, derision, heavy abuse, illegal or immoral actions, and in some cases by a long-continuing psychologically traumatic situation. The affective state can last for just a several seconds or minutes and is typically highly emotional. No or little control over the actions, consciousness, and will exists, while physical force is mobilized, so that the individual will commit actions he would not be capable of in a normal environment. The Civil Code provides for mitigation of punishment, or even for exemption from it, if it has been proved that the act was committed in such a state. A large portion of the population suffers from neurotic disorders. As was mentioned above, a person can have these from the moment of birth or can acquire them in the course of life afterward. There is always the possibility that, under the impact of various factors, the mental health of a person may change and that dangerous deviations may take place at some point in time. It is widely known that behavior changes and the probability of crime increases when a person is in a condition of drug or alcohol intoxication. Legal psychology and the penal code categorize crimes of negligence separately. The amount and danger of such crimes grow with the development of civilization, with scientific progress and the introduction of more and more powerful and complex devices and capabilities. Annually, accidents and technological disasters carry away millions of lives in the world. Eventually, many of them are connected with unwary management or wrong calculations when designing. "Unwary" offenders demonstrate criminal overconfidence and negligence, or do not notice the emergency in time; or foolishly hope to prevent it using unreliable means; they break the rules for driving vehicles, using weapons, etc. Preliminary probation tests are conducted to select people with more reliable, firmer personalities for working as traffic supervisors, supervisors of power systems, airports, nuclear power station supervisors, hazardous operation supervisors, public transport supervisors, etc. Terrorist Psychology Ideas for which terrorists fight include change of government, independence from foreigners, change in the land ownership structure, antiglobalism, ban on abortion, etc. violence is the best method of struggle against the government or against people whose views are deemed unacceptable. Even those belonging to the enlightened bracket of society often recognize terrorism as the simplest method of problem resolution. Murders in the course of competition for power or in business, as well as pogroms organized by religious or nationalist fanatics, are similar to each other in terms of how they are conducted and the frightening effect they make. Innate aggressiveness developed further in the course of being brought up and under the impact of external circumstances may underlie the basis of the terrorist mindset. However, a terrorist may have a weak personality, lack self confidence, be passive and yielding to influence. The age of a terrorist can be from teenage up to about 40 years old. Usually, a terrorist is a victim to his own prejudices or myths that have been given to him and tries to bring the "incorrect" outside world into line with them. The way a terrorist's attitudes have developed has also been impacted by abuse he or those near to him have suffered and the desire for revenge, very often for slain relatives. Shahids often come from families where somebody committed an unbecoming
18

Prison violence, for example. Recently, information surfaced about the atrocities committed by the U.S. military in Iraq. The atrocities were committed by seemingly normal young people (including a woman) from a democratic country. The latent traits of human character often surface up when one believes that he or she will get away with it, i.e. will never be punished.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

34

act causing a disgrace to the whole family. Sometimes these are people who want to stand out as somebody special in some way and to make themselves known to the world. A feeling of hopelessness on the part of a group or cult united on the basis of common ideological or religious views or ethnic origin can also provide a push toward terrorist actions. In the wide range of mindset types of people who are capable of terrorist actions, there are those who have an irrational feeling of guilt and are inclined to suffering, to masochism and its extreme variant, suicide. Self-sacrifice in the name of the "great idea" becomes a sufficient motivation for death. If a person had found sufficient grounds to kill himself he might well have no mercy on others. The Islamist terrorism, which has since recently been a critical issue, involves an influence on the consciousness of an individual that develops him into a shahid (this translates as "witness," by implication a witness for Allah; a shahid is a person dying to glorify Allah); in many cases such influence goes together with learning religious dogmas and starts during the childhood or teenage years. At religious schools, or madrasahs, little boys learn texts from the Koran by heart starting at a very early age, without studying nature, information technology, or world history. Broad propagandistic campaigns use songs, films, demonstrations, and meetings glorifying those who have died for their ideas and paying respect and supporting their relatives. Those ideas include opposing America, Israel, and/or Russia (in Chechnya and other areas of the North Caucasus); living in accordance with Sharia law; and struggling for a global caliphate. The traditions and way of life of the Western world are referred to as satanic. They are rejected also because of the fact that Western civilization has advanced in its progress and the standard of living there is much higher than in those countries that are ruled by Sharia scholars. Therefore, they announce jihad, a war in which a Muslim defends himself from aggression and converts everyone to Islam. In the Koran, we can read the following: "So fight them until there is no more repression, and long live justness and belief in God everywhere and for all time." Sheikh Yusuf al-Karadavi, a leading Islamic missionary, said that "The terrorism of those who defend their own country is legal Everybody has the right to become a living bomb and blow himself up Hundreds of theologians teach us that such a martyr's action is in essence one of the most sophisticated forms of jihad in the name of Allah." For a person who has so programmed himself, committing suicide while taking the enemy with him is an achievement in the name of God. By acting in this way, he not only wants to defeat the enemy, but also to demonstrate his own courage and adoration of the ideas of jihad ideas and to inspire potential supporters, and the part of the society from which such reinforcements come, to do the same. Critical importance is given to the act of dying with joy and the guaranty of getting into heaven. After a heroic death an Islamic warrior is promised luxury and 72 Heavenly Maidens, or houris, who would entertain him eternally. He is confident that death is "a dream the end of all torments of soul and body." Female shahids are promised to be given the role of houris to entertain warriors who died for Allah. However, Islam has also a different, peaceful, interpretation of jihad: "the most respectful jihad is the one that is carried out to conquer (to improve) yourself," "it is a longing to achieving the supreme or a struggle for the best of what a human being is capable, regardless of what real-life circumstances are." According to Koran, the life of every person has been predetermined, and a pass to heaven can be obtained only if one obeys Allah completely. Consequently, they are confident that they should, without hesitation, rush into battle because it is impossible to change anything in their destiny. Sometimes a formal ritual for example, a video recording of the oath taken by the Islamic warrior precedes the action; his loved ones and relatives are taken care of in terms of paying them respect and providing them with material support19. "Jihad warriors" ready to die constitute a significant force, provided that the relevant ideology is widely spread. Support by the population also plays a large role: Islamic terrorists are supported by the Palestinians, many Arabic states and the Muslim diasporas of various countries. Mosques very often become centers for propaganda. Theological conceptions are used that divide people into adherents of Islam and "infidels": good and the evil exist in the world, and everything that is not in accordance with Islam is evil. Fanatical adherents to such principles actually treat the rest of mankind as "unpeople," and no moral norms apply in relation to them. One more "theoretical basis" is used to justify killings of peaceful citizens: people are responsible for the activities of their governments because they vote for their leaders and pay taxes. Civilians can also be considered potential soldiers, as being "involved in ancillary activities during hostilities" that is, serving the economy of the enemy. However, many of those who choose the terrorist path and are ready to sacrifice themselves are quite successful people who are attracted by the ideas of struggle for truth, for justice, for religion, and for implementing the precepts of God (Allah). Thus, today, in Islamist terrorism, the acting personalities are represented by people of different ethnic origins and not only those who grew up in the East and were brought up as Muslims.
Adviser to the Chairman of the Council of Muftis of Russia Vyacheslav-Ali Polosin says that "It is normal for people to struggle for justice and equality. For their struggle they need a strong, spiritual idea... Islam is a socially active relig-

19

Several years ago it was reported in the press that shakhid families in Palestine received up to $10,000-15,000 lump sum or regular monthly compensations.

Chapter 2

35

As is easy to see, organizers of terrorist actions have a large resource pool. They, excluding rare cases, cherish their own lives. These are, as a rule, better-off people skilled in organizing training and provide financing of attacks. Given that they have such enemies as government structures of powerful countries, terrorist organizers' activities require much sophistication and effort. Some of those who have chosen to die experience a special state of mind and body prior to committing the action: a predeath trance. Worries depart, a feeling of unusual power over the lives of others appears, and a state of ecstasy reigns; it is difficult to stop a person in such a maniacal state, as he is capable of overcoming large obstacles while focusing his efforts on fulfilling the task set up for him. Female shahids also play a big role. They are more emotional and can be influenced more easily; often, it is easier for them to approach the site (at least, in the days when female shahids were rare). In particular, in the East, women have had fewer rights since antiquity; it is believed that she should mainly stay at home, dealing with the household and children--and now, all of a sudden, she is on the frontier of a specifically male activity, armed political struggle. (Such traditions may change quite rapidly). Although the notion of "terrorism" implies illegal, uncivilized actions, it is not simple to define the line between the suicide of a terrorist and the sacrifice of a soldier (if we maintain that war is a civilized action). Any person going to war (especially voluntarily) also puts his or her life into a situation of extreme danger and is a potential suicide. On many Russian military awards, "Your Life for Your Friends" is written. We glorify the feats of our countrymen who have sacrificed themselves for the sake of victory, "heroic death in the combat for a righteous goal." This means that, although governments and religions, as a rule, prohibit suicide, at the same time they create the needed psychological environment and conditions and even issue direct orders for such actions to be committed.

ion. It is a religion of revolutionaries. It is a different matter that it is used by slovenly people. Revolutionary ideas are very easy to convert into terrorist ideas; it is enough to change their interpretation just a little and, in the name of their ideal, people will start to commit crimes instead of acts of heroism... We are not ready for a new type of terrorist of the 21st century. They are slowly but surely mutating into judges, doctors, and policemen. Into Russians and Ukrainians. Into educated and respectful people." (These are excerpts from Yaroslava Tankova's article "Why Russians Become Islamist Terrorists," published in Komsomolskaya Pravda, August 16-19, 2006).

Terrorist attacks cause trauma in the psyches of witnesses, either people who saw the event or learned about it from the mass media. As was noted above, one of the goals of a terrorist action is to cause fear, a feeling of insecurity, in as many people as possible. Experts call this posttraumatic stress disorder, which causes problems in the minds and physical conditions of people. In this, people experience feelings of helplessness, insecurity, and worry, which causes maladaptation and stress. As Michel de Montaigne observed, "I used to watch many people who became irresponsible under the impact of fear. It poses the risk that real values such as health, self-sustainability, and personal and public well-being will be ruined. Psychology of the Victim The study of the behavior of people whom danger threatens is called victimology and is one of the branches of psychology. It is known that the extent of the damage depends significantly upon how a person behaves during the period of expectation of the danger and then during the dangerous period itself. A wide range of reaction types to danger exist. The worst cases are ignorance of the danger or complete submission and adaptation

Another interesting "ideological" terrorist is serving out a life term in the United States. He was against "scientific progress that is putting the survival of mankind in question." A mathematician, a former brilliant Harvard student, and later professor Ted Kaczynski for years sent explosive devices through the mail, mainly to researchers and entrepreneurs involved in computers, airline companies, or the natural-resources development business. He killed three people and injured 23. An excerpt from his manifesto, which he blackmailed leading American newspapers into publishing in September of 1995, runs "As society and the challenges facing it are become more and more complicated, and machines more and more intelligent, people will let machines make more and more decisions instead of them Eventually, we shall reach a stage at which the decisions required to maintain the system will have to be so complicated that people will not be able to make them on a rational basis. At that stage machines will actually gain control. On the other hand, it is possible that people will retain control over machines. Due to advanced technology, the elite will have power over the masses and, taking into account that human labor will no longer be needed, the masses will be redundant. If such an elite is merciless, then it may take the simple decision to eliminate mankind. If it is humane, then it can use propaganda or other methods to decrease the birth rate until most of mankind leaves this world, making it available for the elite." We can only share some of these concerns (which are dealt with in this book), but never agree with the way they were publicized. A example of another terrorist acting alone was another US citizen: an honored participant of the 1991 war in the Persian Gulf, Timothy McVeigh, after his request to join the army was rejected, announced war on his government, as a result of which 168 people were killed and 500 injured. (See also Chapter 5.)

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

36

to it, or, reciprocally, exaggeration of the danger, a feeling of loss, and readiness to encounter damage or loss. On the opposite side, there are cases where people refuse to accept the inevitability of a catastrophe, hope that trouble would pass them by. Sometimes these are weak people who do not know how to control the situation; the fear that they feel once they realize the danger paralyzes them. However, with other people danger brings forth additional strength and mental abilities to resist it. (There exists the so called "Stockholm syndrome" a psychological response in hostages in which they show signs of loyalty to the hostage-taker). Many people are prone to fatalism. They believe in inevitable and irresistible fate20.. To some extent this can release tension and sense of responsibility, but it will not eliminate the potential effects. Statistics prove that people who are prepared to become victims experience attacks by criminals and other troubles more often than others. The optimal behavior line is to try to assess the danger and potential ways to eliminate it, and to take relevant defensive actions afterward. As far as the individual is concerned, our common experience shows that the behavior of the majority of us, including in our regular lives (not in emergency situations), are far from perfection. Taking unjustified risks and actions that can cause loss of health or life are typical21. This is supported by numerous road victims, intoxication by low-quality alcohol, domestic murders, criminal risk, and shortening of life due to drug addiction, smoking, and becoming carelessly infected with dangerous diseases. Almost one hundred people die daily in Russia from just each of the first three causes. The annual number of deaths in airplane crashes exceeds 1 million worldwide. Everybody suffers those who run the risk and those who unwillingly become involved in accidents. The data show that the main causes of traffic accidents are alcohol abuse, violation of traffic regulations, fatigue and bad condition of roads factors that are well within our control. Many drivers demonstrate aggressiveness while driving, especially in conflict situations. "The inability to foresee the distant consequences of his actions and refusal to try to look for an alternative way of doing things beyond a momentary impulse dooms the individual, as well as the human race (community), to degradation," as Gustave Le Bon wrote at the end of the 19th century.
In some ways, the situation on the roads represents a model of the general condition of society: lack of a necessary behavioral culture and negligence of danger cause an unacceptable number of deaths. The technological achievement the invention of the automobile has passed the human ability to adapt and control it; it preceded the development of a new mindset that would respond to a new situation when one has to control a possible weapon capable of killing people. The habit of limiting the new choice of way of moving and speed for the sake of safety has not become entrenched. The cause of deaths and injuries on the roads "is fatalism and ignorance, unawareness of how big this problem is and how to resolve it," according to Emile Krug, World Health Organization. Experts in the United States, where up to 45,000 people get killed in traffic accidents every year, have calculated that if speed limit is halved the death toll will be 50% down, i.e. approximately 20,000. However, the rules remain unchanged, that is, people consciously agree to pay for technological progress with human lives. (Although we have not estimated for how longer and better the lives of those who are not killed become due to this technological progress (high speed of traffic) and determined whether or not such a price is justified.) In the European Union, where the number of deaths on the road is also about 45,000 people per year, safety improvement programs are being adopted that aim at decreasing this number

Herodotus wrote in the 5th century BC that "it is beyond the capacity of a man to change what has to happen at the will of a god." Fatalists think that not only circumstances, but also the will of a person, are transcended by a superior force. Muslims say: Insha Allah. 21 "There are individuals who feel comfortable only when running a risk. Without this seasoning, life is not honey for them," according to Chief Psychiatrist of the Russian Federation Ministry of Health Tatyana Dmitrieva.

20

Chapter 2

37

Of course, to some extent, risk should exist in our lives. Lack of courage and excessive circumspection may prevent anybody a soldier, a researcher, an entrepreneur, a politician from achieving their goals. But unjustified, excessive risk increases the probability of loss. One of the most complicated problems is to choose an optimal extent of risk. A certain eagerness for risk, as an inherited instinct of many of us, can be satisfied by sports or something else; this is most typical at a young age. As far as the future of mankind is concerned, I think that the extent of risk in the way we do things currently is far too high. Someone might well say that it is impossible to completely avoid breakdowns and unfavorable combinations of circumstances in the contemporary civilized world, just as natural calamities can not be avoided. However, the analysis and comparison of statistics in various regions and countries proves that, actually, the dominating factor in the number of deaths and injuries is the behavior of people, their attitudes to their own and others' lives, whether they behave like victims who give in to the inevitable, apathetic to what is going on and not believing in danger, or try to prevent (or resist) it and find a form of behavior with minimal risk. One of the most characteristic resulting indicators of behavioral culture is average life expectancy. It varies a great deal from country to country and between groups in the population and depends not only on the common standard of living, natural conditions, food quality, and quality of medical services, but also on the psychology and mindset of people. A characteristic example of this is the difference in the middle age of smokers and nonsmokers: 15 17 years22. Drug addiction statistics are even sadder. On the national level, there is often an unjustified lack of expenditure on medicine organization of emergency services or preventive examinations that allow prevention of dangerous diseases. There is no justification for us to reduce expenses on preventing natural calamities and other safety issues; in the international sphere, we actually commit to numerous deaths by conducting an aggressive policy resulting in military conflicts. However, there are positive examples as well: it is worth noting the campaigns currently underway in France on prevention of cancer, work on road safety in the European Union, and the small number of murders and long average life expectancy in Japan.
The psychology of the victim was described somewhat hyperbolically by Franz Kafka. His characters' natural demands for security and self-preservation are in conflict with the social environment and causes ambiguous behavioral responses. Fear does not help to resist the danger and to save one's dignity and life just the opposite, it demoralizes the personality, paralyses its will and mental abilities, and blocks the ability to exhibit the best feelings and talents. Most often this is a fear of facing the monster of a criminal government structure, which can ruin a personality. According to Kafka, a person has no defense from the suffocating effect of such a fear; neither has he or she an experience of survival in the atmosphere of such fear. Therefore, he feels fated to inevitable death, be it physical or moral. Such a person falls into depression and despair; frustration sets in there and one feels deceived by life itself. A historical example of a situation in which masses of people felt like victims due to such psychology was the behavior of the predominant part of the population of the Soviet Union, who almost did not even try, at some specific point in time, to resist repression, exile, or execution by firing squad; they had actually given in to such a reality. Instances in which people preferred to tolerate, suffer, and complain how bad their lives are, but make no effort to change things, have been too frequent in history.

down to 20,000 by 2010. (Although traffic accident death rates in the United States and European Union are close to the Russian figures, it is appropriate to recall here that the United States and European Union are far ahead of Russia in terms of mileage). It is possible that, in the future, computerization of vehicles will supplement the driver's actions and decrease the number of accidents radically. Then, the current situation in the roads will be a part of history and thought of as a form of barbarism. Taking risks regardless of possible losses that are incommensurable with the expected benefit is also typical for people who chose to commit a crime. This is not rare: There are over 800,000 people serving sentence in Russia today, not to mention those who served prison terms before. The eagerness for risk led highly intelligent and cultured people (for example, certain famous writers) into gambling or other adventurous undertakings.

To return to global issues, to the future of the human species, it should be noted that our habits and traditions, which lead our way in what we do in everyday life, work in these issues as well. It is well known that the majority of us do not like to think about death, at least until old age. While it is inevitable for an individual, for the human species in general it does not apply it can exist for unlimitedly long time, and different approaches should be used to think about its future. In our practical activities, we, at best, make our plans with from the perspective of a period of time approximately equal to the duration of our lives, and sometimes of our children's lives. Speaking generally, people are more concerned about living well here and now. Even small current problems seem to be more significant they need to be resolved right away, with no delay, and so psyches (mindsets) focus on them. It is uncommon to think about what is going to be later, or, and more so, to undertake major work for the sake of a remote future.
For a characteristic example of this, consider the results of a survey taken in Russia in December of 2005 by the research holding ROMIR Monitoring. To the question of "What problems concern you most of all?", the overwhelming,
According to statistics, since 1964, over 400,000 people per year have died in the United States from smoking, and in Russia over 300,000.

22

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

38

Here, we are getting trapped: it is unacceptable to behave in such a way when there are forces and tendencies able to cut short the existence of civilization. Academician Boris Raushenbakh, one of the managers of the Soviet Space Rocket Program, wrote that "human beings are becoming awesomely powerful. Before, one could harm only one's closest neighbors in the village; in the Middle Ages, he could work trouble in another town. Soon, one individual will be able to annihilate the entire world Always, at all times, there will be some boor who will start a fight, and those around will have to calm him down. What if there is a boor who intends to annihilate the entire world?" According to Nazaretian, we are in a situation in which "Force exceeds wisdom. A hypothesis of techno-human balance exists: the bigger the capacity of the military and means of production, the more sophisticated the means of internal control should be. Many civilizations have perished, not due to external causes, but by destroying themselves." Looking at the achievements of the human species, at the mass of people, it is very hard to believe that all of it might vanish; it is not easy to imagine that such catastrophes may happen in our world. Besides, who wants to think about the bad and waste one's health on discussing scenarios of doom? Our psyches are already overloaded with constant information about the current mess accidents, crimes, military conflicts, natural disasters, etc. They absorb our attention and increase our emotional tension. According to statistics, a significant part of the population is barely able to cope with this and is too physically and mentally tired to think about global issues. Unconsciously, the hope always exists that everything will be all right and that oneself and one's relatives will be safe. We have developed a defensive reaction that helps us keep spirit. "For many people in the contemporary world, especially in the poor countries the threat of becoming a target of WMD seems to be relatively remote in comparison with the permanent dangers caused by extreme poverty and hunger, polluted water, and epidemics and infectious diseases," as Kofi Annan observed. To be able to pass through the corridor between undesirable styles of behavior, the danger must be assessed correctly to the extent needed to be able to undertake steps to protect oneself, which in this context means to conserve nature for future generations, avoid military conflicts, find acceptable ways to control growth of the global population, and control excessive consumerism. To achieve this we will have to refuse to use many things that we become accustomed to, incur great expenses, and work hard and long. As with individuals and groups of people, the behavior of the global community on the threshold of the upcoming challenges will determine what impact they make on our future. In the times of the Cold War, there were many reports on research on how to psychologically mobilize a healthy fear to galvanize people into action and act effectively to prevent the realistic danger of war. It is known that, while making a decision, a person uses logic only in part, as a great role is played by the subconscious and subliminal motives instincts, emotions, the examples of others, and associations. However, the main thing that is required of a contemporary person is to move forward in the development of his intellect and increase the share of pragmatism, consideration, and logic in his activities related to the future. Making things worse is the lack on knowledge on the part of the vast majority of people, including those in power and decision-makers, about the emerging regularities and trends of civilization development, inability and unwillingness to comprehend them and hence to put in adequate efforts and investment to resist adverse tendencies. They prefer to dismiss gloomy forecasts by saying "this is too bad to be true." (In fact, what is needed is to make them hear and comprehend the statements and analyses made by hundreds, even thousands, of experts who have studied these problems over the last several decades). For such a complex system as civilization, no technique for making forecasts exists. Just a little is known: for example, several scenarios of future development may exist during periods of instability (see above for a discussion of chaos theory), so the task is to identify and implement the best ones. Several potential directions of the development of the future are represented in the chart on page 36 in a simplified form. It is apparent that one of the acceptable scenarios is, as an example, sustainable development. The matter depends on something very small to assess the variants of such a life and, most importantly, find ways to avoid global catastrophe. Attempts to consider variants of such actions were made in the last chapter. As far as the psychological characteristics of forecasting are concerned, other aspects exist as well: on the one hand, a belief in a bad outcome can make its occurrence more probable, as a prediction has sometimes an imperative power. This is called a selffulfilling prophesy23. On the other hand, a belief in a favorable outcome and in one's capacities makes coping with

close to 100%, majority of respondents indicated growth in prices, inflation, low pay, expansion of criminality, bribetaking of the government, and other current problems.

23

It is more precisely defined as "initially false identification of a situation that becomes true as a result of actions following the common acceptance of a prediction by society."

Chapter 2

39

obstacles easier. In other words, a bad forecast can cause panic and result in an unfavorable outcome; however, exactly the same forecast can mobilize us to cope with obstacles 24. Basic Instincts and Values To a great extent, the life of a human being is driven by inherited and acquired instincts, first of all, hunger, the instinct for self-preservation, sexual desire, desire to reproduce, maternal impulses, and fear. As well as aggressiveness, the thirst for knowledge, and creativity, we also have selfishness; self-assertiveness (the desire to realize oneself, to move advance, and to have power over others); the acquisitive instinct, the instinct to own; the instinct of expansion; competition; the herd instinct; antagonism (dislike); the instinct to copy others; and curiosity (cognitive need)25, as well as sympathy, altruism, and readiness to help26. It should also be noted that a human being has also a potential for balanced behavior circumspection and prudence, which help to control many of the instincts. A defensive (protective) aggressiveness also exists, which kicks in when the individual or his loved ones are endangered. Fear plays a significant role in self-preservation; it mobilizes the body's reserves and its ability to resist and overcome challenges. Physical strength and inventiveness increase, and memory becomes sharper, although it is also true that chronic mental tension can cause various unhealthy disturbances. Cruelty occurs often when efficient restraining factors are lacking. Cruelty is a form of sadism is an unhealthy desire to hurt others. Sometimes cruelty is associated with ambition: the possibility of causing someone to suffer makes one feel superior to others. The opposite feature, a longing to suffer (another inherited instinct), is masochism. However, the instincts are mainly aimed at self-preservation and satisfaction (plus the reproductive instinct, which is in its way a form of self-preservation). Common to many people are envy27 of others' success and well-being; a disposition to crime or alcohol; nonstandard sexual orientation; a slavish mindset; or other inherited features (that are further developed by life circumstances, the environment, incorrectly developed attitudes, etc.), which are referred to as deviations from the norm and are close to basic instincts. Many people are noted for their inordinate appetite for food, and drink, or sex; for the thirst for power and glory; or for excessive desire for wealth. Such inclinations may be as strong as it is possible for a passion to be and result in criminal actions. Human characteristics also include temper or apathy, industry or laziness, gregariousness or unsociability, and orderliness or disorderliness. Inherited traits are either developed or corrected in the course of upbringing and life28. It is also within the capacity of homo sapiens, of the human community, to improve itself and develop what is necessary for survival: within the organism or within a group of people there is an adaptive resource ensuring some level of adaptation and survival, both in the cases of physical abilities and mindset. Unfortunately, such adaptation-preventing trait as conservatism, the unwillingness (or inability) to look ahead and try to identify upcoming events and prepare for them, is among the basic instincts.
Note that a person's pattern of behavior is influenced by some factors other than instincts and stereotypes, namely, examples set by other people, and the necessity of reacting to external provocative stimuli. Usually, actions depend on several of the enumerated factors at the same time.

Some behaviors, for example, competition, "the struggle for superiority that we consider natural for the behavior of individuals, corporations, political parties, or athletes [are] also natural for countries," US political scientist Samuel Huntington argues. No matter how sapient a homo might be, it should be admitted much is done thoughtlessly, in a rush, and that it is not nearly always the case that instinct or intuition will help to choose the right path. This is the case for both private day-to-day life and areas of government importance. The evolution of homo sapiens and a social form of life and the development of culture resulted in the realization that our abilities to satisfy our instincts are limited: unstrained desires cause conflicts with nature or other people. Ultimately, the issue of the preservation of civilization lies in adjusting to the "reality principle" and imIt is the opinion of psychologists that fear, hatred, and suspicion aided survival in the course of evolution. Negative emotions work to alter people's behavior, giving them a chance to assess an obstacle and overcome it. 25 Moreover, a hunter instinct exists, a variant of it being pathological interest in gambling.. 26 The degree of mercy or cruelty varies with different groups of people. There are people who think that causing the violent death of any living creature is impermissible, not even speaking about the mass killings of animals for food or in other industries, whereas other think that it is acceptable to kill people in public using the most painful methods. 27 A significant role is ascribed to this quality by the Russian philosopher Ilya Ilin (18831954): "There have always been bad seeds who are made crueler by the advantages of others. The development of machinery and capitalist production made some people increasingly rich and others increasingly envious, highly opposed to each other. Envy became the main driving force and the guiding false concept of a global crisis." 28 A large role in human behavior (especially instinctive) is also played by the reflexes, reaction of the body to various irritants. (That definition introduced by Ivan Pavlov at the beginning of the last century).
24

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

40

Konrad Lorenz (the philosopher and Nobel Prize winner, 1903-1989) wrote that "man as a species (class) is now at a pivotal time The ability to think gives an opportunity to avoid being wiped out, which happened to all developed cultures of the past." I would also like to make a reference to Lev Gumilyov's theory of passionarity, which states that, in some people, superactivity the ability and desire for engaging in unusually energetic actions is genetically inherent. It can make itself felt in completely different various areas be it in work, in political speaking, or in military affairs. These "passionaries" are characterized by their ambition for expansion. Periods of conflict and war are connected with the ambitious activity of empowered passionaries. In many cases their activity significantly contributes to progress, but may also have grave consequences. Passionarity appears to be a specific property of people who are superactive by nature (the same people are very often also superaggressive) and who, of course, exist in accordance with the laws of statistics. The ideas of happiness and the meaning of life can also be classed as basic. For the majority of people, happiness is defined as mental peace harmony with oneself. Naturally, this notion of happiness is very close to the feelings of comfort and joy experienced after life hardships have been overcome, complicated problems resolved, or a struggle won. The condition of mental peace contributes to extending life as well: many illnesses are caused by anxiety, psychological trauma, and the consequent weakening of the immune system. An individual compares his status and well-being primarily with those of the people around him: mental peace is maintained when he is not lagging behind either the people who are dear to him or those with whom he is just familiar. (At least, this used to be the case until information about the lives of the rich and superrich became so public). A state of expectancy of and striving for happiness is more typical for us. Individual success, confidence in upcoming improvements, regeneration and well-being of one's near and dear contribute to the feeling of happiness. The moment of reaching the goal itself often is accompanied with some disappointment and new questions: "What is going to be now? What do I do next? What goals should I have now?" "Give a person everything he wishes, and he will be indignant in the same very second," as Immanuel Kant said. Self-complacency is not typical for all people and does not last for long. The set of conditions for happiness differs for each person. It depends, first of all, on the mindset (on how ambitious the person is, in particular); however, for some duration in time, it can also be dominated by artificial factors impacting the mind alcohol or drugs, for example. The latter can cause euphoria, a surrogate of happiness that later leads to depression and very often to loss of health. Nevertheless, the definition of happiness as mental peace does not always apply to young people or people with such a high temper that they find satisfaction in a restless, sometimes even chaotic, life. The aforesaid refers, first of all, to that part of mankind that is more or less provided with real-life comforts. Unfortunately, for a large part of the global population, the main problem is to find means for survival for themselves and for their relatives and survive. For them, happiness is the resolution of these problems. About the meaning of life: people are most often concerned with resolving their current or looming problems, and their goals are set up for a certain period of time. Long-term goals are acknowledged and realized by only some categories of people, for example, priests (at least officially) to do good for the people and to serve God while other people may be striving to reach goals set up back in their young years. It is often said that each of us is striving for internal comfort, a feeling of inner peace and freedom from suffering29, and for achieving a higher level of well-being. Most people would not only like to live happily, comfortably, and for a long time, but also to leave something worth remembering accomplishments, good children, or good memories to make this life on Earth be remembered. Achieving such goals makes our presence in this world seem longer, and sometimes we even say that it ensures immortality. However, it is clear that our thoughts about immortality are not very realistic. As far as children are concerned, the share of our genes decreases with each following generation in geometrical progression, thus making a small contribution to the human genetic fund. With respect to good memories of a person left behind or the creative achievements, here we have only dozens or, in the best case, hundreds of years that that memory will endure. Just a miserable portion of all the billions of people who have lived on this planet have done something that is remembered for thousands of years. Genealogical trees with just brief information about the predecessors are also very few in number. Gravestones that are taken care of for more than 50-100 years are also rare. If you want to be a realist, then you will not have a recipe other than to be happy that you were born in this world and that there are many beautiful things in your life the blue sky, love, the joy of creation, socializing with your close friends and relatives, the ability to think and engage in creative activities, and to do good for other people. We
29

plies restraining the instincts in all cases when they are incompatible with real possibilities. This is also what many religious dogmas and codes aim at, that is, restraining people's behavior. "Each person is an egoist led by his desires, desirous of pleasure and insatiable, whereas society normally develops restraint of our inclinations, suppression of our desires, and giving up of pleasures for the sake of fulfilling higher-priority obligations," as Serge Moscovici put it.

"The purpose of life is in learning, giving away, gaining and enjoying satisfaction, seeing love, knowing, sharing, finding satisfaction in love and the gratitude of others, understanding yourself, being healthy and being able to create and living in the atmosphere of needing each other," quoted from Yehudi Menuhin, a distinguished American violinist.

Chapter 2

41

have been given quite enough time to become satisfied with such things. People who manage to live up to a real elderly age, such as 90 or 100, lose their interest in many of the things that used to be exciting for them when they were young. As Russian poet and singer Bulat Okudzhava said: "The meaning of life is to live and do your business. No more than that." Many Ancient Greek philosophers and contemporary thinkers have agreed that the meaning of life lies in leaning and achieving a state of happiness from the process of learning; everything else being secondary. And, of course, another goal is to preserve and extend the lives of both the individual and mankind as a whole. It should be noted that the understanding of the meaning of life that we are discussing is based on an atheistic approach, whereas the approach of many religions is that the meaning of our life lies in preparing for departure to another world and observing commandments.

Fanaticism An unrestrained belief in religion, being devoted to a sports team, or worship of some person are the most widespread forms of fanaticism. It has been reported that it is one of the properties of the mind (consciousness) that are typical for certain people, groups of individuals, or entire communities. "Fanaticism is a certain insanity caused by the inability to accept the whole of the truth," Nikolai Berdyaev said. Another definition of fanaticism is that it is a state in which one issue is considered much more important than and outweighing all others. Belief in a subject or movement is quite often combined with a disposition to hate people who do not share the points of view of the fanatics. A fanatical belief may reach such a point that the fanatic will be capable of destroying what he does not like or does not understand. A fanatic is an individual with some amount of madness, and usually he is quite active and capable of irrational actions. The gap between a fanatic and an extremist or maniac is not that large. Religious fanaticism has manifested itself many times in history, in the Crusaders, the Inquisition, and contemporary Islamic fundamentalism. In most cases, someone's material or selfish ambitions lie behind those activities. The masses of people are disposed to yield to agitation, believe in myths, and carry out absurd actions; in some cases they are capable of mutilating their own lives or those of their relatives. It is really hard to overcome a fanatically disposed person or to make him of her change beliefs. Today we hear a question asked sometimes of whether or not the civilized world believes in its values in the same way as a fanatic/terrorist believes in his truth, and whether or not the world is willing to protect those values in the same devoted fashion as he is. (If not, then the fanatic is stronger). Bertrand Russell said about fundamentalists that "Preventing what they consider to be evil in another country is more important for them that the mere existence of the human race in general this is fanaticism." Fanaticism and extremism are close to each other and, in many cases, lead to criminal acts. Even today, fights between fans of competing sports teams and madness in the streets and stadiums are common; fanatics who kill themselves for an idol also exist. Many kinds of fanaticism exist, atheistic, political, or ideological, all of them showing absolute rejection of opposite opinions. Another extreme and widespread form is extremist nationalism. In many cases, people become fanatics under the influence of religious missionaries or joining a cult. To attract people to cults, all kinds of techniques are widely used, including sympathy, an individual's weaknesses, seemingly altruistic help, threats, hypnosis, and even drugs in some cases. Simple curiosity about a cult and to its unusual rituals may also lead to involvement. Thereafter, mechanisms of collective behavior begin to operate, the desire to follow the crowd or a group of individuals. Our minds are not perfect, and we often err: somebody succeeded in moving you to his side, the crowd has moved on and, here, you are a part of it and inside it; and leaving it is no east task. Sometimes people fall victims to transcendental meditation or other suggestion techniques performed on them while they are in a relaxed, half-hypnotized, state to inculcate a new mindset and put their consciousness and their behavior under the control of the teacher. In such circumstances, a person subjected to zombification would think that his new thoughts, decisions, wishes and emotions appeared from inside his own consciousness, not brought into his head from the outside. The codes of cults and many other communities require observance of their rituals, sometimes wearing specific clothing and using certain symbols. This makes the individual observe discipline, and manipulation of him or her is easier. A cult is often a brutal totalitarian structure led by a person who pretends to be the sole knower of sacred truths. The tendencies described here exist in larger communities as well, such as despotic states where manipulating people's minds and turning them into fanatics is standardized: There is a well-developed system for upbringing and education, beginning from specialized children organizations and ultimately to abeyance and discipline over one's lifetime. Large-scale fanatical movements, including in political parties, have played a significant role in history.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

42

Business Psychology; Pyramids of Power The efficiency of managerial staff officials and government administrators determines the activities of the state and its progress (or degeneration) to a great extent. This depends not only upon ideological principles and qualifications, but on their work style as well; it depends upon how the officials interact with "applicants" and themselves and what principles they follow in their lives. The laws in accordance with which bureaucratic structures, the hierarchy of power in government and private institutions, are established and function have been described by many authors. Quite recently, they were described in a humorous but precise and realistic fashion by the English historian Anton Parkinson and also by Laurence Peter and John Murphy. Here are some observations drawn from their work:

The number of people within each structure has a tendency to grow regardless of the scope of work that has to be performed. Regardless of the purpose for which a structure was originally established (a ministry, an industry, etc.), it inevitably winds up functioning for the sole purpose of self-preservation. Every boss strives to increase the number of his or her subordinates. Who can, does. Who can't, teaches. Who can't teach, manages. People will do anything not to do anything. No matter how thorough you have scheduled your activities, business hours will be spent on something else. Nobody knows what is going on within a specific organization in reality. No work that it is impossible to do exists for a person who is not obliged to do it himself. Everyone believes in his own objectivity, and nobody trusts those of others. Nothing is ever done in due time and within the estimated budget. A man is considered to be an intelligent employee until proven otherwise; a woman is considered to be stupid until proven otherwise. Your success in receiving a promotion depends not on those who like you, but on those whom you do not irritate. A fool in a high position is like a man on the top of a mountain: everybody seems small to him, whereas he seems very small to others. Almost any reform in reorganization and reduction of administrative staff results only in its expansion. Rules for a manager: Do your best to look important. Listen attentively while others discuss an issue, and try to pick on some trivial statement to confuse your opponent. Keep the door of your office closed. It will make getting to you difficult and create the impression that you are always busy with something important. A real official will always put an important decision on hold if there is a way to do it. Putting someone on hold is a way of getting rid of people. Freedom of speech means freedom for the boss to interrupt, whereas for a subordinate it means freedom to keep their mouth closed. The boss is not always right, but he is always the boss. The ability to change the state of affairs is the main property of a manager. His ability to change it before others can is a good sign that he is a creative personality. In a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to his own level of incompetence. These snippets are not far from the truth in many cases. It is true that bureaucratic structures are often concerned with serving their own interests and not implementing the tasks they are assigned (which is not surprising, as each person is busy resolving his own life issues, unless he is trained and made to act otherwise). A large problem in the work of government officials is corruption and the quest for money; in many cases, this develops into a large-scale and actually criminal activity. No less important are the rules to which people inside the structures adhere and in accordance with which they interact. Unfortunately, very often this is not based on relations of mutual respect and cooperation, but rather there is an atmosphere of hounding and denunciation, trying to discredit competitors or managers that demand too much. Here, there is neither mutual support nor team spirit; the employees spend most of their time following the performance of their competitors and looking for their mistakes and on pretending to work. Such problematic teams exist in the arts, in administrative institutions, and in any other area of human activity. Talented, honest, and or hard-working people suffer in the majority of cases in which such a private, politicized way of resolving issues is used, as they are dangerous as both competitors and an undesirable example of employees that are too honest. The managerial positions in such teams are usually given not to the most talented and professionally skilled employees, but to those who can better get along with management. That there is no need to explain that society loses much from such a type of activity. (See footnote 15 to this chapter about such the phenomena of mobbing, deliberate persecution of certain members of the team). Experience proves that if people with one type of mindset prevail in a team, then after some time they can either squeeze out employees using opposite approaches or "reeducate" them. It is good if the talented and truly efficient people win. Such organizations

Chapter 2

43

are the ones that produce the most important results and products for society. It is difficult to change a "bad" team into anything or retrain them; sometimes it must simply be disbanded. This is the case not only for groups of people involved in intellectual, creative, or administrative activities. There are many cases in which they have failed to organize work, improve the work culture, and change the traditions established inside the teams, and the only way out in such a case is to replace the personnel. Speaking in general, failure to organize work at a modern level, increase results, achieve high labor productivity, and change the approaches and mindset of people and society as a whole is an issue for not only companies, but for entire countries30. Here it is appropriate to raise the question about changing the rule or entire system (sometimes, this will also include ideology of dominant religion).

"The criterion to evaluate a politician is the actual result of his plans and efforts. However, even if such outcome can be reported as positive, it has to be verified against the cost at which it was achieved The problem of the ratio of the goal and the means of achieving it is one of the most difficult," Lev Voznesenski wrote..
30

Who rules us? Let us identify some peculiarities of how governmental and other types of power pyramids are established. Those have the greatest chances to win out in the competition to make it to the top possess "strong fighting properties," such as aggressiveness in its different forms activity, persistence, etc. Of course, there are other factors contributing to making it to the top; apart from being a truly valuable resource, it can be in the interest of influential people or relatives or the support of some group with a specific purpose. This group may propose an even weaker candidate if he is more manageable, as he will not be dangerous to them. According to the common logic, and provided that their potentials are the same, that candidate will usually make it to the top of the pyramid who uses a wider range of strategies to compete and, in many cases, is not concerned whether they are ethical or even legal or not. Even criminal actions can be considered good lies, falsifications, forgery, illegal eavesdropping, and even murder are used. To get into power, a candidate for a high position may give out many promises with no intention of fulfilling them later31. The activities of people who have managed to make it to the top of the pyramid, like the behavior of each of us, are affected by inherited instincts significantly; however, the people in power exercise less control and restraint in relation to themselves. People become "drunk with power," which creates a feeling of permissiveness. Moreover, they acquire the opportunity to suppress critics. This becomes extreme in totalitarian autocratic systems. A significant role in these processes is played by the fact that a large part of the population (sometimes referred to as the crowd) is inclined to worship those in power and to blindly follow sometimes absurd ideologies and slogans. In democratic countries, the main instruments used to keep unworthy candidates out of power include information technologies (now the Internet) and the media, which work to make candidate's activities known to the public. However, these democratic mechanisms give no guarantee against deliberate distortion of information by the media and manipulation of public consciousness. Elections for governmental authorities, which are considered to be the apotheosis of democracy, unfortunately do not guarantee that power is acquired by people who are capable of making significant contributions to resolving global issues. The majority of the electorate experiences the effect of demagogic speeches and promises; moreover, they are not able to understand much about politics due to the fact that they usually lack information. "There are thousands who are lazy or not able to study information about potential candidates and their programs for every person who does," as Professor Sergei Kapitsa said. On the other hand, politicians also prefer to study issues that will be of interest for their electorate (at least that part of the electorate that watches how events develop) or an influential lobby. Has this anything to do with global problems planning the future and so forth? Government activities depend much on the leaders' charisma, as well as on the quality of the political elite. This illusion occurs very often that systems for selecting a country's managers ensure that power is acquired by people who seem to be smarter or, at least, more sophisticated in the ways of protecting their country and moving toward progress. Unfortunately, experience proves that this is far from the case. It is especially dangerous in our epoch when the actions of the rulers are not adequate to the new means of destruction and other growing hazards32.

As an example, in the Soviet Union, as well as in Russia today, the labor efficiency is approximately three to five times lower than that of the developed countries. It makes the country economy weaker and its international status low. Despite of the numerous attempts to improve the situation, including perturbations in the scope of the entire nation during almost a century did not help improving the relative efficiency ration. Other examples can be found in other parts of the world (see chapter 8). 31 Viktor Shmakov said in a public speech that "we know a priori that all rulers will eventually deceive us, however attractively they try to present themselves. Some candidates are even aware of that they will deceive both their electorate and themselves. First and foremost, a ruling position is a way to fill one's pocket! It is virtually impossible to overcome the temptation even if you initially had no plans to use your position in power for personal enrichment. Second, what would a king be without his retinue? And the retinue is packed heavily with ambition, incompetence, corruption, intrigues, envy, etc." (http://www.civitas.ru/openarticle.php?pop=0&code=427). 32 Testifying to the poor quality of prognoses made by those in power is the number of unsuccessful coup attempts: if someone who stands two or three places away from power decides to stage a coup, his chances of succeeding will only be 50%

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

44

In many cases, a nation's leader, a king, or a prime minister is concerned not so much about the well-being of his citizens as about establishing his own greatness, satisfying his ambitions, selfishness, and so forth, providing support to some categories of people close to him and neglecting the interests of the community and, sometimes, the lives of their citizens33. Dictators suppress all undesirable information, first of all about their mistakes and certain episodes of their biography, especially cruelly. Within any country, but especially within undemocratic social systems or totalitarian societies, as well as during coups and plots, it can always happen that people with any type of mindset, including ones dangerous to the community or, in our days, to the entire world, may become rulers of countries34. This is also possible in the case of hereditary transfer of power. Changes in the psyche and mindset of a person in powers, which happen quite often, especially when his powers are expanded or status altered, may represent another problem35. Anyone can fall sick and something break down, including mentally36. In addition, in many cases the management of powerful countries and their military forces consists of elderly people older than 70-75 years, this significantly increasing the possibility of such an event37. History has many instances of illogical, hazardous actions taken by national leaders that brought about wars, defeats, and the deaths of entire armies and the population as a whole. This may be impacted by inherited genetic defects, lack of intelligence or education, poor selection of advisors, and many other factors. Investigating these problems and the severe consequences that may follow from them is an area for act psychiatrists and specialists in the human sciences. It is not accidental that the issues are raised of requiring regular psychiatric examinations of high-ranking officials and criteria that officials of the executive and legislative branches must meet. (One good example of actions taken in the right direction was in 1985, when thenUS President Ronald Reagan made 100,000 officials be polygraph-tested)38. It may be that, based on existing practice and using statistical data, experts and the community will have to develop appropriate rules related to this and enact them into law. Just a brief analysis of the mindset characteristic of the people in power and the way they come to power demonstrates that improvement is needed here. It is becoming particularly important in our epoch, due to the fact that power is accumulated in the hands of a few individuals who have the opportunity to make strategically important decisions. Concluding this section, it is appropriate to remind that management, be it team management, corporate management or running a country , is probably one of the most responsible professions; therefore, the selection and training of future leaders should be given no less care and attention than the selection of, say, artists, scientists or sportsmen. Inborn aptitudes should be identified, talented teachers should be called, educational programs should be created with respect for modern and future trends in each given discipline. Tolerance The notion of tolerance (Latin tolerancia) concerns a tolerant, respectful attitude with respect to other peoples' opinions, beliefs, cultural traditions, and rituals and acceptance of other peoples' imperfections. This is the art of getting along and living with people who are different from you, who act and behave differently; this is the art of negotiation, the unacceptability of genocide, nationalism, anti-Semitism, etc. This is not just about being tolerant; reaching agreement and holding negotiations have to be normal practices, triumphing over the culture of hatred and aggression. The opposite idea is xenophobia, an intolerance of people of a different belief, national33

However, there is another, probably an ideal, option: "Power is self-denial of your own personality for the sake of others. This is, first of all, serving the well-being of others" (Prince Albert II of Monaco). 34 The Russian philosopher Aleksandr Zinoviev said about government that "The intellectual level of the people who are now ruling the world is enormously low A much higher intellectual potential should be developed. We need brains, young brains." (Apparently, extraordinary, talented brains are meant here). 35 There is a saying that the notions of decency and probity undergo serious changes as one climes up the social ladder. 36 "Should simple human beings know about the slip-ups of the leaders and their personal weaknesses, sins, illnesses, evils, for example, about the physical and moral degradation of Brezhnev The nation cannot be protected from the leader's personal whims. The destiny of more than just his own country is sometimes vitally dependent on the fancies and illnesses of the leader. Nobody knows what turn would have been made in the history of our country if, at some point of time, there had been a man with much stronger nature in charge of it" (Oleg Tsyganov, Izvestia, December 23, 2004). 37 The government of old people, "gerontocracy." "In the 1980s, Russia shamed herself in front of the rest of the world three times by keeping living corpses on the throne or setting them atop it" (Professor Bestuzhev-Lada, Rossiya i Mir, 20062015. 2006). 38 There have been publications in the press that officials of the Russian Ministry of Defense who are responsible for the storage, handling, transportation, and operation of nuclear weapons are also tested with lie-detectors. They are also thoroughly tested for alcohol and drug addiction and for psychological problems. Lie-detectors are finding increased application in Russia today.

Chapter 2

45

ity, race, skin color, tribe, national or ethnic origin, or culture. The oppositions of Islam-Zionism, Western civilization-Islamic fundamentalism, and white racism (which has replaced black racism in a number of African countries today), etc., unfortunately play a significant role in the contemporary world. In the current epoch, patience, political correctness, and other elements of tolerance are among the main properties required to preserve civilization. To avoid greater calamities, we must pay a price and lose something we need to control our emotions, instincts, and desires. The Declaration of Tolerance Principles adopted by UNESCO in 1995 states that "tolerance is what makes reaching peace possible, and takes us from the culture of war over to the culture of peace." Tolerance is defined as respect and acceptance of the variety of global cultures and forms of human individuality; it is rejection of dogmatism and absolutism. These principles do not imply commitment to social injustice; neither do they imply any mandatory consent to other peoples' point of view. There should be no tolerance of aggressiveness or to ideologies of hatred. The idea of tolerance has its boundaries: "Being tolerant of opinions, if it is really true, implies no punishment for any opinion until it causes some criminal act" (Bertrand Russell). Once a society has agreed on certain rules in the form of a constitution and/or laws, then no principles of tolerance apply to those who violate them. Although we mean mainly state level or global problems when discussing tolerance, in fact we need tolerance in interpersonal relations and relations between groups of people. The number of road accidents, for example, can be significantly decreased if drivers treat each other in a tolerant and polite fashion. Even today there are examples of Buddhist communities and other religious groups wherein conflicts are reduced to a minimum. Development of appropriate attitudes in childhood and living among people with a peaceful mindset seem to be the most reliable paths toward developing the style of behavior necessary for the people of the future. Intolerance can be explained by the psychological peculiarities of the individual, by genetically inherited or acquired aggressiveness, or by lack of culture. A dim feeling of a threat from the outside world, uncertainty, or lack of knowledge cause prejudice and hostility toward other people, other ethnicities or religious minorities, be they individuals or entire social groups. The constant search for enemies gives rise to the sense of a need to defend oneself, which is expressed in joining a community of "our" people "if you are not with us, you are against us." We can make reference to many instances of cultivating xenophobia at the state level: fascism, the "chosen race" in Germany, announcing that the Soviet system was the highest achievement of mankind, Islamic radicalism, and anti-Semitism. It should be noted that one of the problems of implementing tolerance is the dynamics of this notion: what was considered unacceptable and even punishable by the criminal code quite recently may not be any longer subject to persecution starting some time later. In some places divorce is prohibited, whereas in others multiple marriages are not a problem; in some countries there is freedom of sexual relations, whereas in others you may be killed for a kiss. In one nation monogamy may be common, while in another polygamy is. In some countries businesspeople are treated with respect, whereas in others entrepreneurship is punishable by imprisonment. Many countries have become tolerant of homosexual relations, and some of the use of soft drugs. There are countries where euthanasia is officially permitted, while in others doctors are sentenced to lengthy terms in prison for doing it. Procedures may differ even within one country, for example, in different states of the United States. Globalization, expanding communications, and a mixture of people of various traditions and religions leads to increasing tolerance. Peaceful coexistence is possible only provided that the right for other people to engage in unusual behavior is commonly recognized (provided it is not to the detriment of someone's interests). Principles of tolerance and prohibitions of racism and racial discrimination, are described in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and many other international documents. Starting in 1973, UN General Assembly every 10 years declared "decades" of struggle against racism and racial discrimination. The Assembly insistently called for governments to struggle against all forms of racism and against discrimination based on culture, nationality, religion, or language. In Russia, relevant articles were added to the Constitution and the Criminal Code, and recently a program of "Development of the Bases of Tolerant Consciousness and Prevention of Extremism in Russian Society" was put in place. A resolution was issued to production corresponding to expert opinion of publications, textbooks, and television programs with the purpose of developing peaceable and tolerant attitudes, using the mass media "for revealing the antisocial nature of extremism in its various forms," and preventing national strife. However, public-opinion polls and life practice prove that the many formal actions have not produced any significant results: many people does not follow the principles of tolerance. The fact that tolerance and peacefulness constitute basic properties of the psyche and mindset necessary to survive has been known for a long time, and these principles are used in all major religions. However, our history is more like a kaleidoscope of deviations from these principles than it is one of them being followed. Today, the human civilization has entered the epoch where such deviations are no longer allowable.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

46

Chapter 3

Manipulation of Consciousness
The manipulation of consciousness consists of the process of constructing opinions and ideology for the purpose of conditioning people, their motivations, and actions. It is used both to rule the population and in dealing with tasks of lesser magnitude for example, in advertising goods or disseminating information, sometimes patently false information. The techniques of consciousness manipulation are targeted primarily at the emotions; the meaning is often hidden in images. Repetition of themes is used as well. Manipulation of consciousness makes effective use of modern media tabloid newspapers and television, and it controls various arts. Besides, they organize rallies, marches and public festivities. On a broader scale, this technology is used by totalitarian regimes and underestimating its role even in democracies would also be a mistake. t is common knowledge that an individual's mentality, consciousness, and behavior are shaped to a considerable extent by external factors and the actions of those around him or her. Throughout history, orators have used their rhetorical skills in order to convince and arouse the audience via the subconscious and channel the energy of the mob. Later, with the passage of many totalitarian states over to democracy, the task of ruling millions with minimal violence came into the forefront. No regime, not even the most despotic, has ever made the mistake of neglecting the potential of propaganda, but today it is propaganda that is the principal tool of managing and controlling the population. In a broader sense, indoctrination became an integral element of the technology of power. According to dictionaries, one meaning of the term "manipulation" is a deft, covert handling of objects or people. What concerns us here, however, is the conditioning of behavior, the influence exerted upon the inner psychological workings of a person for the purpose of alteration or formation of opinions, ideology, and most importantly motivations and actions. A professional stage magician uses intelligent application of the knowledge of psychology to misdirect the audience. When the matter concerns public consciousness and politics, specialists with knowledge of political techniques come into play. Research centers and specialized companies, along with entire systems of training personnel, operate in this sphere. Sergei Kara-Murza described this in his book The Manipulation of Consciousness: "Tampering with public conscience is akin to a war waged by a small but superbly organized and equipped army of invaders against a vast population of unprepared noncombatants Always covert, this manipulation affects individual freedom to an extent greater that outright coercion ever will." There is a joke told by those who engage in such techniques that "rabbits may think that they are making love, but they are just being bred." Brainwashing and conditioning a society of poorly educated or inadequately informed people is immeasurably easier than otherwise, as should go without saying. The intricacies of indoctrination techniques are deliberately kept from the masses. Information on the matter is scarce and hard to come by. A contributing factor here is that it is easier for people to receive information passively than to spend time and effort on critically understanding it. The advanced Western countries carry out state policies and manipulate the public consciousness in ways to maintain stability in the interests of the prosperous part of society, which constitutes a majority of the population in such places (sometimes even two-thirds of the whole population). At the same time, however, public consciousness is manipulated in the interests of a fairly small stratum of the wealthiest people and the ruling elite, in addition to businesspeople, company owners, and so forth: "Manipulation is one of the main tools of management concentrated in the hands of a small ruling group of corporate and government bosses" (Professor Herbert Schiller, United States)1. Political provocations are commonly used, as well as propagandization of a social policy that is far from always fair, advertising, formation of taste for a marketed commodity, or false information.

1 In his article When Presidents Lie (2003) Eric Alterman expresses the idea that a politician or a government high-rank a priori cannot be absolutely frank with his audience. Presidents can not and should not provide their people with detailed explanations regarding subtleties of their policies which, in fact, can be understood only by professionals. Therefore, public speeches are usually prepared to contain simplified argumentation with emphasis shifted from facts to emotions aimed at causing an appropriate responses from the audience.

Chapter 3

47

Some Methods of Mass Manipulation of Consciousness Repetition of an assertion is one of the most effective techniques. For an individual to learn something by heart and repeat it is even better: Prayers are a universally accepted way of strengthening one's faith. Theses from the classics of Marxism were committed to memory like prayers in the Soviet Union, like quotes from Mao Tse-Tung in China in the not-so-distant past. Attending seminars, composing reports, and taking political exams, an individual cannot help but come to believe in the "truths" he is saying, even when they contradict what he or she sees. "Being an obsession, repetition becomes a barrier against different or polar opinions. It reduces reasoning to a minimum and promptly transforms thought into action the masses already have a conditioned reflex for, like Pavlov's dogs," quoted from French sociologist Serge Moscovici. Continual petty lying is another method, lies with vague references. Such things do not hold up for long, they are safe because the false information conveyed is fairly unimportant, but their sheer quantity makes them effective. Through the use of silence instead of outright lies, Reporters are often taught to "tell the truth, but not all of it." As the aphorism says, "Why bother lying, when you can get the same thing by parceling out the truth?" False quotes sometimes even with the "source" identified is another technique. Distortion of meaning in translations of foreign sources is yet another technique. Establishment of a rapid influx of interesting reports (informational noise, if you like) that strains consciousness to the point where short-term memory is switched off and the exposure of "yesterday's" lies is no longer of interest. Belittling a problem or replacement of a fundamental issue with its secondary aspects. Aggravation of the impression that information is sensational to create the illusion of unprecedented importance of the issue. Propaganda of false goals as traps for public conscience. Deliberate keeping under the lid of the target date or possibly negative corollaries of whatever project is being advertised. Dishonest labels and distortion of the enemy's objectives. Wild promises when it is actually selfish ends or something altogether impossible is promoted. Education of the young in schools and colleges is one of the basic methods that is widely used the introduction into consciousness of allegedly "necessary" but often false postulates (religious, ideological, and other) (see the end of the chapter). The peculiar characteristics of mass psychology are widely used the habit of following and the diminished sense of responsibility people feel in groups. Many methods are particularly effective when used against a person in a crowd. Thus, we have, political debates with large audiences in television studios with simultaneous viewer opinion polls (which makes the host's views look better substantiated); thus, we have manipulation using ratings and public opinion. Even elements of hypnosis may be used when in direct contact with the target (at rallies or meetings, for instance). In commercials, the item being advertised is deliberately associated with something intangible love, friendship, or success with beer, chewing gum, or cola, and so on. (Commercials promoting medicines are particularly dangerous "this medicine is guaranteed" to cure stomach aches, headaches, and so forth. Persistent and seemingly convincing exposure to propaganda creates the impression that there is no need to make appointments with physicians, as the cure is already here, within reach.) The effect of these methods is particularly profound when the media are being manipulated. Exposures of outright lies and negative public reaction become highly unlikely in this case. The postulates "the bolder the lie, the easier it is to believe" and "feelings and emotions create thought and action better than reasoning ever will; feelings are simple and limited, and there are no hues or halftones in them they are love or hate, right or wrong, truth or lie" were central in propaganda in Nazi Germany. States frequently have maintained information blackouts they have done so in the past, and they do so today. Implantation of an idea into someone's thought processes, or infusion, is the polar opposite of persuasion, the process of active consideration and acceptance (or nonacceptance) of arguments, ideas, and so on. As Professor Vladimir Bekhterev said in the early 20th century, "Infusion penetrates without any processing, the sphere of consciousness An idea, feeling, emotion, or some psychophysical condition or other is instilled." The baser instincts and inclinations are played with, those driven into the subconscious mind as unacceptable. Psychological mechanisms that will make people behave in the needed manner are sought after. When provided with deliberately distorted data, communities become easily manageable, regardless of cultural or class differences in them. The indoctrinated masses may hail their tyrant and despise liberators, or even persecute a nation, stratum, or individual either on orders or just by following the example of someone else2.
2

The following quote refers to the American media-magnate and classic of consciousness manipulation, William Hearst: "All the way down his lengthy, yet dubious, career he was setting Americans against Spaniards, Americans against Japanese, Americans against Filipinos, Americans

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

48

The International Communications Consultancy Organization (ICCO) unites more than 850 consulting companies, members of the professional associations of 24 countries employing more than 25,000 specialists.

The "plebeians" are usually manipulated by the elite, but the elites too are subject to manipulation. History knows innumerable examples of the populations of whole countries being deliberately and ably indoctrinated. These campaigns usually began with calls for a sacrifice in the name of a religion or ideology and ended with mobilization for wars of mass killing that posed risks greatly exceeding the promised benefits and proclaimed objectives, these having been more often than not illusory in the first place. Nevertheless, history tends to repeat itself, as though in confirmation of the old axiom that "history teaches us that it does not teach anyone anything." "Tampering with mass consciousness has always been generously financed by the class of owners and advanced by the state. Finding it in their interests, the authorities may permit rebels to wreck City Hall or even the presidential palace, but they will never tolerate it in the television center" (Sergei Kara-Murza). Vladimir Lenin, in the early 20th century, listed telegraph stations as one of they first things to be targeted in an insurrection. Broadcasts from abroad were banned in the Soviet Union in just the recent past, and an extensive network of jammers existed to ensure it3. As the Humanist Manifesto declared in 2000: "Dictatorships have used the mass media in propaganda, preventing the appearance of alternative points of view. Media outlets stoop to the lowest possible cultural level all too frequently. Neglect of hard facts is typical of our era. Reports on every sort of miracle take up more airtime than reports on the latest achievements of science." Sects, bosses, and religious leaders use indoctrination techniques widely. Here, the individual's problems and weak points are studied to make him or her submit to the will of others, or the person is baited with patently false promises. Leaders of religious sects mostly concentrate on two objectives. First, they strive to take over the victim's life to as full an extent as possible from family relations, to habits, to daily routine. Second, they strive to extract benefit from the victim and use him or her to promote their own objectives, at times even criminal ones. (Here, for instance, is an excerpt from the sentence passed on the Japanese sect Aum Shinri Kyo: "The defendant advanced religious doctrines that justified murder, calling it assistance in liberation of the soul.") Such manipulations enable leaders to establish absolute control over their subjects. The propaganda of sports also distracts the masses from pressing political problems. It is common knowledge that fans outnumber people actually play sports by dozens or hundreds to one, as a result of such propaganda.Leading the masses in whatever direction is desirable becomes easy in such a situation. "It is an information revolution our society is living in, one based on entertainment and shows that constitute another drug for the masses" (Zbigniew Brzezinski)4. Special attention is paid to the indoctrination of the military and the population at large in time of war. An American military dictionary defines psychological war as "Planned propaganda that affects views, emotions, positions, and behavior of the enemy, neutral, or friendly foreign groups." Active Soviet propaganda in the Cold War-era earned the Soviet Union sympathy and support from a considerable part of the international community and secured new allies for the socialist camp. It is common knowledge that some Western intellectuals and writers had faith in the progressive nature and superiority of the system established in the Soviet Union. Some of the foreigners who had worked for the Soviet Union in a clandestine manner and afterward found themselves living in Russia were greatly disappointed. The techniques we are discussing became known as PR in the relatively recent past. At first, PR was intended to ensure a congruence of interests of society and the elite, individuals or groups and the state and business. It was also expected to improve the quality of information, and a number of international documents were signed to ensure this. The European Public Relations charters (Rome and Stockholm) insist on the observation of business principles and rules common for all countries and high standards of business ethics and social accountability. Promoting "objective consultations," "validity of information," "fulfillment of obligations," and "confidentiality," these documents condemn the techniques of manipulation. How many specialists out there actually follow these rules is a matter of guesswork.

against Russians; for his hatemongering campaigns he resorted to blatant lies, falsified documents, invented slaughterous stories, catchy headlines, sensational cartoons and photographs..." The population had a joke at the time that "There is a tradition in Russia to listen to the BBC at night." Vladimir Lenin: "In bourgeois democracy, capitalists use thousands of tricks, all the more intricate and effective as such "pure" democracy gets more developed, to push the masses away from governing the country, away from the freedom of meetings, freedom of press, etc."
3

Chapter 3

49

Undeniably facilitated by the necessity of coping with terrorism, humanitarian techniques are developing in the direction of stiffer control over the population. It is possible to reconstruct an individual's past through access to his or her bank account, medical history, data from insurance companies, tax structures, and social services. Additional information is available in the databases of libraries, advertising and phone companies, and traffic police. Identification by fingerprint, retina, the voice, and other biometric data takes practically no time at all. Advances are being made in the sphere of determination of a person's psychophysical condition without actually being in contact with him or her: analysis of emanations from the brain can show whether the person in question is calm or excited. When anomalies are discovered and a personal file is available, it is possible
Incidentally, the Russian word "vparit," which means to sell something of poor quality, is very consonant with the word PR It is no wonder that PR specialists are highly paid. In Russia, a television host is paid much better than a professor. Writers in the Soviet Union were known as "engineers of souls" who were pampered by the state. The Union of Soviet Writers included 10,000 (!) tame members. Journalists were in turn known as "assistants of the Party." 7 From the U.S. press: During the first six months of 2008, the Government of Russia had remitted $2,436,600 to the Ketchum company in payment for its praise of Russia's role as G8 chairman. The activities performed by Ketchum under that contract included organizing meetings for government high-ranks with the press, preparing information releases, etc. Further, the Russian Government had reportedly paid (the amount is not reported) the Integrated Solutions Group for lobbyism and GR (government relations). Gazprom's division, Gazprom Export, paid Ketchum $1,470,000 for PR activities, including the arrangement of interview with Gazprom representatives, media monitoring, preparation of press releases, etc. 8 Even less-advanced societies have made "zombies." Special toxins were used to put the subject into a state close to lethargic slumber or hypnosis to ensure obedience.
5 6

PR (public relations) is a misleading term at best, as it is about manipulation, not relations. Its formal definition is as devious as its methods themselves5. PR is something that does not easily fit within the existing frontiers of any one field; it includes elements of political science, sociology, psychology, pedagogy, the theory of communications, physiology, etc. PR may be financial, political, related to sports, and so on, depending on the sphere of application. It goes without saying that whoever owns the media outlets or sources of information (states, companies, individuals) "calls the tune." It is these states, companies, and individuals that make decisions concerning the content: what events or facts should be kept under the lid and what reported, what views and trends are to be advanced, and so on. Naturally, they promote their own interests and objectives, be they commercial, political, or whatever the case may be. The moves to be made are calculated in advance: Publications in the media, statements in front of television cameras, rumors, and anything else that it is believed will have the desired effect on the minds of the audience. When it comes to elections, PR specialists concentrate on creating illusions that fit the expectations of voters and will therefore win votes; in business, the objective is to up profits; in sales, to sell as much as possible Whenever a deadline is involved, for instance in elections, the objective boils down to ensuring that their candidate gets the majority of the votes. That voters may be grossly disappointed afterward is immaterial, as it will be too late. The nature of the customer the importance of the objectives to be fulfilled define the cost of PR campaigns and income of their organizers. In commerce, the cost of advertisement and attractive package frequently amounts to 30-50% of the price tag6. Manipulation of public consciousness is employed on the international level too. One recent example is the campaign staged by the Omnicom Group PR company (to be more precise, by its subsidiaries), to lobby Russia's government interests in Europe and the United States. They arranged interviews for Russia's topranked officials with Western medias, newspaper and television coverage, meetings and trips. Commercial interests of Russian companies (Gazprom and others) are also being lobbied7. "Hi-hume," a term that denotes "high humanitarian techniques," would seem to imply respect for an individual's demands and particular qualities. However, this technique aims at conditioning people's likes and dislikes (and is fully capable of carrying this out). Fulfilling the individual's needs is secondary: his or her desires are molded to conform with what is or will be available, which may include everything from an ideology to a political group to movie stars to commodities as such. Neuromarketing studies the customer's preferences based on examining condition of certain parts of the brain prior to putting images that are known to generate a positive attitude into, say, a commercial. A 25th frame is inserted in television broadcasts and films, a shot that has nothing to do with the unfolding plot. The viewer is unaware that it is there, but a certain stimulus is implanted in the subconscious. Alternatively, two film projectors may be used at once, one showing a movie and the other, a weaker one, a still. There are other tricks as well. Behavior-altering substances are not exactly unknown. Crimes are more easily committed when a person is intoxicated, and soldiers toss down a stiff drink before attacking. There are chemicals that will weaken the will and make a person more cooperative with interrogators. Even more radical changes in behavior (even the mind itself) can be accomplished by surgery, such as lobotomies or removal of some centers from the frontal part of the brain (which has been used in the United States). (Remember the mankurts from Chingiz Aitmatov's novel "The Day Lasts More Than a Hundred Years"? Even civilizations more primitive that ours have made use of such practices.) We may eventually arrive at remote control through means of implants that stimulate or block certain parts of the brain; indeed, instructors of suicide terrorists8 may use such means.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

50

to predict the person's behavior and take appropriate measures. Long-distance identification devices are being perfected9. Tests have been run in which electronic devices were planted in human brains, these machines exchanging signals with neurons and affecting the mind (to block seizures or fits of aggressiveness). Remote-controlled killer cyborgs are no longer the stuff of science fiction. There are even fantastic ideas (fantastic for the time being, that is) that new information may be instantly loaded into the brain to learn a new language, and so on.

Modern equipment allows for eavesdropping on and analysis of literally millions of telephone conversations. Once a person's behavior (shopping, movement, and/or conversations) has been analyzed, AI systems with can draw the conclusion that a terrorist act has been planned or some other threat posed. The Patriot Act that the US Congress adopted in the wake of the September 11 tragedy broadened the powers of the secret services in the war on terrorism. Similar actions are being taken in other countries. Pinpointing the location of a cell-phone user is easy today, and these users constitute the majority of the population in many countries. An implanted monitoring device feeding on body heat can provide information on the major parameters of a person's state of health10. The Internet is being monitored, special software being installed to keep an eye on users. More than 4 million video monitors have been installed throughout England, the country that was first to put them to this use because of Irish terrorists in the late 20th century. In Russia, monitors are installed in railway stations, near bridges and tunnels, in enterprises, in building entrances, and of course in stores. Police officers in New York and other cities carry portable Geiger counters. Ships entering harbors will soon be monitored from nearby bridges, as will be street traffic and so on. Devices are being designed to replace dogs and alert law-enforcement agencies to the presence of certain substances. Portable chemical-and-germ-contamination meters are already a must. The smoldering terrorist war has resulted in a tendency toward the restriction of personal freedom: video and telephone control is enforced, thorough searches at airports are commonplace in which passengers are singled out by ethnic origin, and so forth. With explosive devices becoming ever more destructive and terrorists ever more resourceful, there is no way to tell to what degrees these tendencies may worsen. Infringements on personal freedom, loss of anonymity, violation of the principle of the sanctity of privacy this is the price of security. Media

Along with radio, television, printed media, and the Internet, other forms of arts including cinematography and the theater, are used to bring about a desired effect on views and opinions. The emphasis is placed primarily on the emotions, on the hidden meaning of images photographs, paintings, etc. There is no need to recollect here the ferocity with which the Soviet Union persecuted "alien" and "bourgeois" trends in literature, painting, music, or fashion, not even balking at the physical extermination of their practitioners. "Art must belong to the Party" was the motto of Soviet propaganda. The founding and evolution of the Western democracies were inseparable from the development of book and newspaper printing, which boosted the ability of information to be disseminated: "People are free to buy pre-made opinions already wrapped up." It took radio 50 years to reach an audience of 50 million. It took television less than 15 years, and the Internet less than five, to do this. There will soon be more than 1 billion people with Internet access. The rapid development of information technologies will eventually reach out to every human being on Earth. Events and things that do not reach the mass communications channels today exert practically no influence ("only what is known about exists"). Popular actors, prominent scientists, sex symbols, and sometimes seven "anarchist poets" are paid colossal sums for appearing in front of cameras, which lends greater credibility to whatever is being conveyed. Mass culture is being used to dupe the population en masse (mass culture for masses of mediocrities). Television is the principal mouthpiece of advertising and the source of news for the majority of the population in the advanced countries. Millions, even billions, watch the same broadcasts news and entertainment programs. "There are dozens of ignoramuses per one Nobel Prize winner. The genre of games is becoming dominant substituting everything for just unconscious and senseless entertainment. One foul-mouth is enough for a group to be dragged into a dirty talk sliding down to most disgusting obscenities. It seems to me that European civilization is moving down toward the darkest Medieval ages, thanks to the television first of all," quoted from Vitaly Tretyakov, Dean of the Higher School of Television at the Moscow State University, Izvestia, May 14, 2009.
9 Some parents worried about kidnapping have tiny telltale devices implanted in their children's bodies. There are reports that thousands of families in Brazil are waiting to have the procedure done. 10 Microchips the size of a grain of rice are already being implanted in patients to monitor their condition on a permanent basis.

Chapter 3

51

"Live" shows at home are something everyone likes. Watching television programs is a ritual. For example, in the Soviet Union, "broadcasts were restricted to Soviet films by competent directors, films showing life as fine and dandy" (Yegor Gaidar, "The Death of an Empire"). (Who cared that this life on television screens did not have anything to do with Soviet reality and depicted the life as ordered by the Department of Propaganda of the Central Committee of the CPSU?) People adapt their daily routine to broadcasting schedules. Television is doing what it can to make sure that advertisers and politicians have as large an audience as possible. Television commentators become extremely popular in their native countries and sometimes even abroad; their statements and stands on any given matter become a decisive factor that molds public opinion11. Journalists are regularly paid for placing emphases and accents in their programs in the correct places. Television is not singled out among other media means only because of the extent of its coverage12. Information from a screen, in contrast to on a sheet of paper, is presented in a combination of text, image, and sound. This combination makes it easier to remember, and its various elements seem add to its truthfulness. The screen enjoys the amazing and its consequences are not yet fully comprehended ability to "erase" the difference between truth and lie. ("An experienced liar knows to look his interlocutor in the eye.") Specialists and laymen speak of the magic of the word from the screen, they elaborate on the anchormen's charisma, and so on. The individual no longer needs to engage his powers of reasoning, because information is implanted directly in the subconscious13. Visual propaganda is not restricted to television screens alone. Symbols and paraphernalia on clothes and commodities are widely used by politicians, fans, street pushers, and others. Even computer games aim at the thoroughly negative, particularly the ones won by whoever kills more enemies than anyone else. Unfortunately, even some children's toys require the killing of as many enemies as possible, the sooner the better. Neither are horror movies exactly the best aid in the formation of a maturing individual's psychological makeup. Man's dependence on television, TV-mania, is something like an addiction. Most people watch television much longer than needed for the purposes of getting fresh information or entertainment. The habit of relaxing in front of the beloved television set looking at pleasant images and listening to the music or narrators turns off the psychological defenses. The barriers of critical comprehension go down. The worlds created often have absolutely nothing to do with reality. The American political scientist Robert McNeil said that "Television effected changes in the means of bringing political information to the general public so radical as to be unmatched by anything since the establishment of the Republic. Nothing before television has ever introduced so horrendous a change in the technique of indoctrination of the masses." The emotionally unstable (who are not encountered as seldom as one might think) cannot discern the difference between a show and real life. The mind, and particularly that of the young, whose formation is not yet complete, is regulated and corrected by the behavior, personality, and views seen in movies, soap operas, and political programs. ("Manners are determined by television.") As far as repetition, one of the major methods of indoctrination, is concerned, television knows no rivals. The average citizen of the United States or Russia spends three hours out of every twenty-four in front of his or her television set. Without doubt, it is mostly the most shocking scenes that remain in the memories of the
11 "Pluralism of opinions" and statements from incompetents posing as specialists create an influx of false and antiscientific information that confuses the population, which finds itself unable to discern the kernel of truth. It almost inevitably makes correct behavior and correct decisions impossible, in elections or otherwise. The spectrum of options that will make possible successful and stable development of civilization seems narrow, which means that man may survive only when decision-making is based on hard facts and scientifically proven data. (This goes for the elites as well.) "No matter what the heads of governments and other state officials might be saying, their speeches should be analyzed, tested for correctness, and verified against the proven Evolution is not pluralism, it is first and foremost dictatorship of the laws of nature and laws of development. Only man, with his unique traits that set him apart from other forms of life, is capable of using knowledge to foresee and channel the course of the evolution of processes in a desired direction. It necessitates determination of the state policy by knowledge" (and not by forcible, ambitious, and such aspirations E.A.) ("The Dictatorship of Science," by Anatoly Luksemburg and Vladimir Simkin, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February 1994). Reasonable as the thoughts contained this quotation are, determination of scientifically correct decisions or behavior in matters as complicated as state policy and economics is, of course, extremely difficult. The levels of social and humanitarian sciences are frequently inadequate for correct decision-making. (see Chapter 18, Part III, Technology). 12 The population of Russia gets almost 80% of its information from television and more than 10% from the Internet. The increase of use of the latter will probably have a profound effect on life in general. 13 "Accustomed as it is to whatever television dishes out, the audience is no longer capable of accepting and comprehending intelligent television that requires engagement of the mind. At last! Television has finally created the adequate customer, one who will weep over pathetic soap operas and dance to the tune of the Number One Hit announced from the television screen" (Irina Petrovskaya, Izvestia).

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

52

television viewers. Specialists say that it takes from 1,200 to 1,400 broadcasts of a reel to condition the average voter to vote for a candidate. Candidates on a nationwide scale have their reels broadcast by dozens of television stations. Properly directed commercials repeated many times over send sales soaring. How suggestible the mind is to this trick is clear from the readiness to pay thousands and thousands of dollars for a minute of airtime. It may also be gauged from how many people (literally millions) fall for financial swindles like the notorious MMM financial pyramid in Russia. The total cost of a presidential campaign in the United States today count to hundreds of millions of dollars. Aggregate media advertisement costs in the United States exceeded $150 billion over the last several years; Internet advertisement is rapidly gaining momentum. After all, it is customers themselves that pay for it all in the long run: " Rams are marching in rows. Drums are rattling. The skin for these drums is the rams' own" (Bertolt Brecht) The part media outlets play in competition is no less instrumental. A well chartered and carried out information campaign enables its organizers to solidify their positions, earn points, or even smear and defeat the enemy. Diligent studies are being done of every method's efficiency14. Hidden motives the existence of which is not admitted even to oneself are discovered and exploited because it is known that people who never give a thought to the existence of these motives will not mind having them played upon. The borders of the permissible expand. Covert suggestions are made to the audience, and its baser instincts and carefully suppressed desires (sexual, aggressive, selfish, etc. ones) are appealed to. The attraction of violence fights, murders, accidents, catastrophes, etc. is widely used. Television violence seems particularly attractive to the young, whose education and frequently insufficient experience have yet to impose restrictions on (or introduce corrections into) their natural instincts. There exists a hypothesis that these broadcasts of violence help alleviate an individual's inner aggressiveness and allow him or her to "vent negative energy" (even the term "catharsis" is used). For very many, however, they are merely thoroughly negative examples that the individual may try out in real life afterward. When a person has been successfully beating down his own baser desires, seeming them repeatedly displayed on television may actually provoke the person into giving in to them. Along with everything else, television tends to romanticize villains and gangsters and even present crime as a norm15. Television channels interrupt their previously scheduled reconstructions of actual crimes, executions, and displays of mutilated bodies for the sake of live reports from the site of a suicide, lethal accident, or catastrophe (both before and during). A television station would give everything to be able to report "Death Live!"16. With its attention glued to such gory episodes, the television audience becomes even more susceptible to indoctrination (be it political or purely commercial). "The market makes me hunt for vile sensations," a television producer was quoted as saying once. "What's the use showing a pastor teaching his flock to be good? It's banal. If, however, some pastor has raped an old woman, that is guaranteed to spark interest. It's this kind of sensations that I'm on the lookout for throughout the world." Erich Fromm, the psychologist, wrote that "The viewer is passively attracted to the pictures of crimes, catastrophes, and episodes of violence. People revel in these pictures because this is the shortest way of becoming excited and thus easing boredom without effort. It is, however, but a small step between the pleasure found in a passive observation of violence and active excitement generated by actual participation in a sadistic and destructive action."17. There is a saying among the paparazzi that "a corpse adds life to a picture." In Russia, the federal television channels alone broadcast some 30 scenes of violence and murder every day. In the United States several years ago it was calculated that a typical teenager sees up to 8,000 murders and 100,000 episodes of violence in movies and on television screens before finishing high school. A great many children are emotionally unstable, barely maintaining their precarious mental balance (almost 1.5 million of them in the United States alone). Watching what they see on television screens, they may resort to violence, something they would never been prone to do before.18. As we can see, en masse (unreasoned) murder tends to become almost a common occurrence, in the United States, for example. In addition to the above described and widely employed techniques of influencing people's consciousness and behavior, coming soon are even more sophisticated ones those involving various types of low-frequency and other radiation. (Some information, though scarce for the moment, can be found in Chapter 12).

It has been discovered, for example, that color television sets reduce the amount of energy used by the brain, because black-and-white compelled the viewer to invent colors. 15 Many countries outlaw cockfighting, dogfights, and even the traditional bullfight, popular forms of mass entertainment as they are. 16 The death toll of journalists is a clear indication of the risks involved and the high crime rate. 17 Here it is appropriate to present an excerpt from one of Alexander Pushkin's letters to his friend Pyotr Vyazemsky: "The crowd loves to read confessions, diaries and the like. It panders to their meanness to savor humiliations of the high and weaknesses of the strong. Every time they see somebody's folly revealed, they exclaim in admiration: 'He is as low as we are, he is as mean as we are!" 18 A draft law "On the Protection of Children From Information Detrimental to Their Health, Moral and Spiritual Development" has been made prepared for enacting in Russia (April 2009).
14

Chapter 3

53

Society's Resistance The general public in a great many countries aspires to control over television to force the latter to honor moral norms and restrict political indoctrination and annoying commercials. Devices are installed that permit parents to spare their children programs they are convinced the latter should do without. Commercials promoting tobacco and alcohol are outlawed, and other measures taken. More advanced systems may appear in the future that will automatically omit shows and commercials from the main schedule. In this case, however, advertising will be inserted right into the plot trust the competition to never lose momentum and the attackers and defenders to remain at each other's throats with undiminished zest. The market is a powerful force, and overcoming its laws by reduction or even removal of relevant programs is not going to be an easy task. Conflicts flare up fomented by the eagerness to cover a celebrity's life and the limitations imposed by the sanctity of privacy (the phenomenon of paparazzi). Less than 50% of the US population trusts the media, which does not mean of course that they are immune to the influence of media outlets. Protests are voiced against hosts' biliousness and irresponsibility; groups of interests and individuals never cease attempts to present their opinions and views on whatever issue is at hand. Opponents of censorship point out that information is a commodity and that every consumer is free at any moment to push the off button and suspend "consumption." It may be added that the sides uphold different views on "the balance between editorial freedom and morals. Stiff competition over airtime sends prices soaring. It is only natural for owners of television stations to flatly refuse to even contemplate any self-restriction. The degree of criticism aimed at the local authorities and central government differs from country to country. One of the principal functions of the media comes down to control over the authorities, prevention of abuses and corruption, promotion of the law, and forth, but this proves to be a sheer impossibility even in some democracies. The effect criticism has on public opinion depends first and foremost on the ratio between the bulk of conflicting information and its quality quantity and quality, in other words. Victory in the war between promoters and opponents of freedom of the media has been swaying to and fro for years, but the owners of media outlets have it their way more often. The Internet is a new battlefield in the continuing confrontation, as a medium that allows for instant publication of independent opinions and easier communication. As Fromm wrote, "Democracy can withstand authoritarian threat only if and when passive democracy of observers (TV viewers) gives way to active democracy of participation." When used as a tool of foreign policy, television is already the principal tool of expansion. It is used to penetrate the information habitat of the target country and consequently exert the desired influence. The United States is the unquestioned leader here, this leadership secured by its advanced movie and television industries, its network of signal-relay satellites, financial might, and unmatched PR techniques. Fighting to maintain their information independence, other countries do what they can to develop their own television and movie industries, etc. These countries adopt laws and install equipment to restrict television and radio broadcasts from abroad. The European Parliament once ruled that European programs must account for no less than 51% of the broadcasting schedule of every television station in Europe. Sometimes the decision-makers go too far, of course. For instance, television was outlawed altogether in Afghanistan under the Taliban and the Soviet Union went to great pains to jam "enemy" broadcasts. The majority of the population with higher education in both liberal democracies and totalitarian states, and the population as a whole, acts in accordance with the rules imposed by the powers-that-be. Only a minority objects (this minority usually being larger in democracies than in totalitarian countries). Depending on the degree to which the state means business, such people are arrested, put on trial, found insane, fired, or subject to ostracism. The US Supreme Court ruled in 1946 that "a rebellious publication or petition containing criticism of the government is not to be considered a crime," but the existing arrangement of assets and progress made in the sphere of public opinion control does not permit criticism to be much of an impediment for would-be puppet-masters. Every now and again, however, discontent captures strata of the population so broad that no amount of indoctrination and no variety of manipulative methods can help the powers-that-be. Control slips, the system becomes shaky, and the state of affairs deteriorates into chaos. A revolution or coup d'etat may follow, and a new regime installed. Once installed, the new regime begins using the same methods as before, albeit with perhaps somewhat lesser zest.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

54

Totalitarianism and Democracy Increasing numbers of countries have been discarding dictatorial and totalitarian systems in favor of democracy. Monarchs, dictators, general secretaries, hereditary presidents and other rulers with unlimited powers are gradually becoming history19 resisting the process but by and large unable to stop it. These countries were ruled by suppression and oppression. Official propaganda there went out of is way to prove the legitimacy of the system, bolstered the rulers' prestige and authority, and mobilized the population in campaigns ordered by decision-makers. Unlimited power frequently corrupts, and the rulers' lawlessness sometimes took bizarre and hypertrophied forms (even cannibalism in Africa).

The Soviet Union and Germany were vivid examples of totalitarian systems combining propaganda with violence in the 20th century. Well-educated peoples with substantial liberal and technical intelligentsias were set on a fatal course. In Germany, racism and nationalism resulted in the appearance of a demagogic, brutal, and militarist dictatorship. Recovery following its collapse took years. "Technical means (radio and loudspeakers) deprived 80 million people of the independent thinking," as A. Speer, one of the senior Nazis tried in Nuremberg, put it. Indoctrination and thought control were total, beginning with education and ending with the establishment of special services that controlled and directed actions of every individual. These structures included the Jungvolk, Hitlerjugend, NSDAP, etc: "The National Socialist state should be based on two educational ideas. First, inflammation of my youths' hearts and introduction of the notion of race in their minds. Second, readiness to win or die" (Adolf Hitler)20. The Soviet Union had its Pioneer Organization, Komsomol, CPSU, and trade unions, and its propaganda was quite energetic. Soviet radio regularly broadcast programs like "Lenin's University for Millions" that "provided an exhaustive analysis of the global importance of the October Revolution, highlighted the leading and directing activities of the Communist Party in the matters of reforms, promoted the democratic nature of the Soviet system and humanism of the Socialist society, and exposed the scheming bourgeois propaganda." Other methods and means of control included the so-called propiska (permanent residence address), registration at the local army and enlistment and recruitment office, stiff discipline (being late for work before World War II would earn a person imprisonment), and covert surveillance. Add here the threat of a sudden motiveless arrest hanging like a sword above everyone. International correspondence was examined. (By the way, private correspondence from abroad to Russia was first read by Diplomatic Department clerks in the 17th century.) Practically all old traditional holidays in Russia and Germany were either abolished or adapted to the new state ideology21.

By definition, the radical difference of democracies is rooted in the society's self-government or rule by elected bodies (the Senate, Duma, etc.), an elected president or prime minister and the active part of the population. The state is in essence maintenance staff, hired hands society is paying through the system of taxes. What violence is practiced here is supposed to be by the book, a nuance that necessitates three independent branches of government legislative, executive, and judicial, in addition to the media playing the part of the fourth branch. What, however, do we see in real life? The foundations of the future order are rooted in the very motto of democratic society, that proclaiming "equality of opportunity" (but not equality of results). Individuals possess different abilities, energy, and diligence, different genetic background and it is only logical therefore that property is distributed unevenly, as are the means of its protection, the means by which stability is maintained legislation, courts, penitentiary establishments, police force, and mechanisms of manipulation22. The owners of major chunks of property, those who end up in the driver's seat, are particularly interested in the subject. The 17th century philosopher John Locke, wrote that "Preservation of their property is the main and principal objective for the sake of which people unite in republics and obey governments" (and preservation of their lives as well! E.A.). Democracy would seem to be the antipode of totalitarianism, but the systems differ little in the matters we are discussing. Both systems require means of mob control and manipulation. According to American sociologists Paul F. Lazarsfeld and Robert K. Merton, whoever controls views and convictions in our society applies physical violence to

19 There are about 30 official hereditary monarchies in the world today, their rulers wielding different amounts of power. There are also essentially dictatorships where state power is handed down from father to son (the present Japanese emperor is the 125th member of a dynasty that began in 600 BC). Judging by the figures provided by a publication in the New York Times (2005), 37% of the world's population live under the harshest regimes, the population is partially free in 54 countries, and absolutely free in 89 (where it truly enjoys freedom of confession, elections, freedom of associations, and so on). "Outposts of tyranny" in the eyes of official Washington include North Korea, Iran, Myanmar, Cuba, Zimbabwe, and Belarus (from Condoleezza Rice's statements in January 2005). 20 Hitler also said that, "We do not need intellectual exercises. Knowledge is destructive for my young people. We are convinced that every young German of the future must be well-built and agile, swift like greyhound, lithe like leather, and hard like Krupp's steel." (1935). 21 Life in Spain and Italy under the fascists and in other totalitarian countries was similar. The Young Falangist Oath in Spain ran, "I pledge to live under the leadership of the Falanga Espanola Tradicionalista in obedience and joy, enthusiasm and patience, courage and silence" 22 "Democracy is a form of state, a type. Like any other state, it therefore constitutes organized and systematic application of violence to individuals. On the other hand, it means a formal acknowledgment of equality among citizens, equal right to determination of the type of state and control over it" (Vladimir Lenin).

Chapter 3

55

It should be noted that the idea of following the will of the majority is frequently crippled by pure technicalities even in democracies. As an example, society (parliament) may find itself split into three groups when voting on an issue. Different opinions on the issue at hand poll 40%, 30%, and 30% of the votes. Even when the opinions of the latter two groups are fairly similar and taken together they constitute a majority (60%), it is the first opinion that carries the day and gets acted upon. The Marquis de Condorcet pointed this out in France in the 18th century, and Kenneth Arrow in the United States came up with his Impossibility Theorem in the 20th century. It is common knowledge that certain legislatures allow minorities in the parliaments of democracies to overrule the majority. This is why in real life we see a kind of pseudodemocracy in which either a compromise is found or society finds itself divided into antagonistic groups. The voters' own indifference and irresponsibility worsen the problem: too many of them (sometimes a majority) cannot be bothered to turn up at their polling stations. Such people do not think that their participation will change anything, and they may even vote on a whim. Remember Winston Churchill's famous "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time"?

a lesser and mass conditioning to a greater extent. Radio broadcasts and commercials have ousted intimidation and violence, they concluded. German philosopher Karl Kraus wrote about the ruling cliques of the West that "They have the media, they have the stock exchange, they even have our subconscious now." The Italian sociologist Antonio Gramsci maintained that "The state is the whole aggregate of practical and theoretical activities through the deployment of which the ruling class justifies and retains its rule, aspiring in the meantime for active consent of the ruled." Gramsci believed that success of a coup or revolution requires that the cultural media and current ideology be destroyed first and replaced with new dogmas. Once that is accomplished, ascension to the pinnacle of power and installation of a new regime cease to be a challenge. Coming to power and holding onto it in the advanced countries is practically impossible without broad use of new information technologies. The techniques of engineering state coups have culminated in the latest "Velvet," "Orange," "Tulip," and "Rose" Revolutions, in the course of which mass demonstrations took place and state structures were overrun by peaceful protesters. This discredits the regime and eventually topples it23.

Myths Media outlets are widely used to instill myths that provide the basis for ideology and behavior. A myth is an Utopia, a fiction that is accepted, sometimes, a combination of reality and mysticism. Like the fairy tales children tend to accept as reality, implanted myths (religious, ideological, or political) are seen as the truth. They provide guidance in life and influence various rules and laws. Religion and civilization began with myths trying to explain natural phenomena and define man's place in nature. Myths explained how the universe came into being, justified the existing way of life, and regulated behavior and relations within societies. Ways of life on Earth were frequently regarded as an integral part or continuation of heavenly ones of divine origin24. Futurologist Vladimir Tsaplin wrote that "Sober analysis of intelligence as the unique natural phenomenon it is may be replaced with apparent obscurantism aimed to rule the myth-subdued human masses for the purpose of benefiting the rulers themselves." The regimes of Hitler, Stalin, Mao and others were based on myths. The appearance and existence of dictatorships are usually inseparable from group interests, the struggle for unlimited power, suppression of intellectual freedom, and of course proliferation of the myths that support the existing state of affairs. In Germany, these myths advanced the ideas of the Aryan race, the Jewish threat, the necessity of expanding Lebensraum, subjugate the Slavic "subhumans," and establish the Thousand-Year-Reich of Aryan supermen. In Russia in the wake of the Revolution, the principal myth came down to "land for the peasants, factories for the workers". In the years to come, it would evolve into "the Soviet Union is the country of the most advanced democracy, the country of universal equality, brotherhood, and humanism"25. Any monarch or dictator displays the same confidence in his own absolute rightness and infallibility up until the moment of his dethronement. Those groups that have already made it to the top or as yet only aspire to it would stop at no lies or amount of loss of life (as long as it is not their own, of course) to secure their privileged positions. (The elite in the Soviet Union was also known as the nomenklatura.) Everything is permitted escalation of the international situation, involvement in wars, starvation of people, killing one's own countrymen. Life teaches us that those who aspire for positions of power will stop at nothing to satisfy their ambitions, to climb to the top, to rule, and enjoy living standards unavailable to others.
Such scenarios were realized in Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. "Shaking metaphysical convictions is not easy because they possess the capability to block out information that contradicts them" (Stanislaw Lem). Some will not even listen to arguments contradict their views, and any attempt to make one will generate irritation and rage. 25 Iosif Stalin's myth: The Great Construction Sites of Communism "we'll build the canals, we'll plant forest belts and well-being and happiness for all will come." Nikita Khrushchev's myth: "We'll catch up with America in meat and milk production, we'll reap record-setting corn harvests, and we'll have communism here in the 1980s."
23 24

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

56

All too frequently, there is practically no difference between the behaviors of the elites in different social systems, states, and eras. It comes as little surprise that decisions are made guaranteeing that rulers about to step down will enjoy immunity from jurisdiction or that documents are classified for 50 and more years. (Once again, this is done in different political systems.) Such people are brought to account but infrequently. More often than not, justice is only done many years after when the criminals can no longer be brought to trial26. As a rule, proponents of various religious or ideological dogmas and myths are completely confident of the superior, unique nature of their faith, and they are prepared to wage wars to propagate it. As the 19th century French philosopher of religion Ernest Renan put it, "Food for thought given an enlightened man by science, arts, and higher activities of mental capacities is given an unenlightened man by religion alone." Religious zest is frequently used as a prop for the existing regime. Nationalism and ideological dogmas are frequently put to similar uses. Along with the major political myths that affect the destinies of peoples and states, devious "puppeteers" implant suggestions on a broad spectrum of issues. This may be merely the ascription of an exceptional quality to some item, an unparalleled level to a work of art or an artist, or miraculous qualities to a medicine. With their hands untied (financially speaking, that is), specialists can make even a mediocre object unbelievably popular and, therefore, boost the demand for it. Regarding this, Yehudi Menuhin wrote that "There is considerable similarity in the methods of conviction deployed by advertisement, political propaganda, and religion. Their behavior is identical, it is manipulative and misleading. It comes down to promises it is impossible to keep, more often than not" (in the book Revolution of Conscience by Stanislav Grof et al.). From the materialist standpoint, religion, astrology27, and the phenomena spoken of by mediums are myths. Proposed to an individual in his or her early years and throughout life, myths form behavior and may even interfere with understanding changing reality and the person's ability to act adequately with it. Critical and independent reasoning based on extensive available information is what is really needed in a world that is changing so swiftly. "Civilization is facing the threat of the proliferation of mass myths, myths that leave whole peoples and continents under the reign of cruel and cunning demagogues Society needs intellectual freedom freedom to obtain and propagate information without restriction, freedom to discuss issues without fear or bias, freedom from pressure applied by authorities and superstition Freedom of thought has to be defended by all decent people. It is a task of the intelligentsia and all other strata of society" (Andrey Sakharov). Education The technical methods used in upbringing are identical to those used in indoctrination. Even the ultimate task is similar. Education is about forming a system of views and framework of stress that is supposed to mold an individual's psyche to the pattern approved in society and set the person on a certain course. The instincts common to everyone and individual traits are both present in an individual's makeup at the genetic level. Such traits may be brought to flower or suppressed by education, by the conditions of existence, or, in other words, by the environment itself. There even exists the opinion that an individual can be "molded" into anything, regardless of initial makeup28. Some methods of indoctrination already discussed here are used for this purpose along with the traditional systems of education at schools and elsewhere. When an infant is born, there is no way of knowing what he or she will become. Individual development, adaptation to the psychology and morals of society, and elaboration on the necessary selfdiscipline are only beginning at that point. In view of the pertinent need for changing public consciousness (see Chapter 18 and other chapters of this book), it is even better to try and make the infant psychologically adapted to society as it should be in the near future during his or her lifetime29.
26 Pol Pot in Cambodia "surpassed Stalin and Hitler together. The intelligentsia was exterminated. Cities were destroyed. Every other person was tortured, every third was murdered. It was a rehearsal of the end of the world, the collapse of civilization And yet Pol Pot quietly died in the jungle" (Valeria Novodvorskaya). However, several his henchmen were brought to trial 30 years later. 27 "Astrology views the cosmos as a highly organized and interrelated system that reflects grandiose projects mapped out by a higher intelligence" (American psychologist Stanislav Grof). 28 Behaviorism appeared in the early 20th century. The developer of the theory, John B. Watson, maintained that any infant might be brought up to become a judge or a criminal. Behaviorists are convinced that behavior is but a function of education and external stimuli. 29 A more-or-less typical dictionary definition of the process is, "[The] adoption of certain norms, habits, and values a necessary aspect of an individual's socialization (the process of acquiring the traits without which participation in society becomes impossible) and a precondition for the normal operation of every social system. Psychological mechanisms of selection and acceptance of social information depend on a whole aggregate of factors: individual-personal (IQ, susceptibility, stability of self-estimate and level of self-respect, need of others' approval, and so on), microsocial (position in the group, individual's importance for the group, group's structure and solidarity), situational (task at hand and individual's interest in it, competence, whether the decision-making is public or private, etc.), social and cultural (conditions in the given society with regard to development of individual's independence and responsibility)."

Chapter 3

57

"Modern education cultivates the spirit of contest," Alie Bailey wrote in 1954 in her book Education in the New Age. "It is mostly nationalist and therefore isolationist in nature. Children are led to believe that material values should be rated the highest, that their particular nation is supreme and all other nations secondary at best. It feeds pride, and the child becomes convinced that he, his group, and his nation are far above all other peoples and nations. It follows that this education is unilateral, that the child is imbued with an incorrect idea of global values, and that the child's attitude with regard to life is comprised of prejudices and superstition. General knowledge of the world is lopsided as a rule, made this way by national or religious prejudices. This is good for making a person a citizen of his or her native country, but not a human being open to and for the world. For example, old appraisals prevail in history classes, in which every nation extols itself (at the expense of others more often than not), where facts are deliberately distorted and where wars serve as milestones in history for centuries. This was a history of aggression and the evolution of a materialist, egotistical civilization. This was a history that bred a nationalist and therefore isolationist attitude that fed in its turn racial intolerance and ethnic pride32. What pedagogues should assist with is establishment of a sound foundation of the civilization to come; they should promote whatever is common in scale and constructive by nature. Pedagogues should point out new ways of thinking and therefore exert a positive influence on the course of human affairs. They should place the emphasis on episodes like the French Revolution, which pushed into the foreground the ideas of freedom, equality, and brotherhood, and like the appearance of the US Bill of Rights and Atlantic Charter. By explaining the meaning of these great declarations to children and exposing the pointlessness of hatred and wars, we will generate a hope for a better, happier, and safer world Two principal ideas should be imparted to children in every country: the value of the individual and the existence of an indivisible humanity"33.

The education of the young and assistance in making choices and learning a trade and the rules of behavior (social adaptation) are probably the most important sphere of human activities. The latest accomplishments of culture, morals, and science should be passed on to the young. The latter should be taught the ability to be creative and constructive in dealing with problems and, which is also important, to take into account the coming reality future generations will be living in. This is why only the most gifted, progressive, and humanistic people should become pedagogues30. These people must know what future young people should be prepared for and be able to impart to their charges their own belief in the possibility of this future. Immanuel Kant's words that "True education should prepare people for the future and a better condition of humanity. Only then will they call this condition into being"31have lost none of their truth. Along with the subjects of general education, education in every country inevitably includes the elements of ideology necessary for defense and protection of society as it is. Education in dictatorships; bourgeois, religious, and communist education; and education in democracies is always about protection of the existing state of affairs. The same applies to whatever goes by the term military-patriotic education. Children are frequently conditioned to hate "them" as opposed to "us," which results in training of people prepared to die as long as they take as many lives of the enemy as possible (kamikazes in Japan and shahids in the East). Teaching people to be aggressive and to kill is one of the prime tasks of every army in the world. (Fighting in wars often leads to changes in a person's psyche, and these changes are not for the better).

Tsaplin wrote that "Nationalist and religious forms of preschool and school education and education should be put an end to as systems that cripple the mind and revives the psychology of antagonistic tribes, hordes, and packs"34. The survival of mankind as a species today depends on how successful people are in abandoning

30 Unfortunately, in some countries and periods (say, in the Soviet Union in the late 1940s), it is the young who fail to pass entrance exams to other universities that end up as students in pedagogical colleges. Today, as well, the low salaries paid to teachers in Russia work to diminish the attraction of teachers' colleges for talented young people. 31 There exists even the opinion that "All adults on Earth must be given a choice: pass a general education test or be content with fewer rights than others. Identification of natural capacities and legal capacity is wrong. The more advanced the technological level of development man is at, the higher the threshold of adequacy of the minimal educational level of a member of society to his or her capability. Capability levels exist in all other spheres that characterize individual's knowledge, professionalism, and intelligence. Under the age of 14-30, the individual is considered incompetent in various spheres, beginning with criminal prosecution and ending with the presidency. Life experience, the ability to think, knowledge to understand the world around, and the ability to control one's emotions need be taught, and the process is time-consuming. The same goes for industry, science, sports, the arts, and other spheres. In other words, certain criteria are set up below which individuals are restricted in their capacity in this or that sphere. There are no such criteria in the sphere of social relations! Are the requirements whoever aspires for a fully fledged membership in human society should meet to be restricted to being 18 years old, being a biped, and being able to reproduce (which does not require any training at all!)?!" (Vladimir Tsaplin). 32 "Every hero remembered by history was a warrior: Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, Atilla the Hun, Richard the Lion-Hearted, Napoleon, George Washington, and many others. Geography is history in a different form: the history of discoveries, explorations, and annexations all too often accompanied by mistreatment of the indigenous population of the newly discovered lands. Greed, ambitions and cruelty these are the leitmotifs of what geography and history are teaching." 33 These statements mirror the opinion of the author (a materialist) and are taken from a book by Alice Bailey one of the best-known advocates of esoterisme (a school of thought that recognizes the existence of higher forces and their influence on our lives). I am prone to agree with the conclusions drawn in The Principles of Interpretation of the New Epoch by Alexander Klizovsky (a pupil and follower of the Roerichs in the early 20th century), "Intelligence is not up to the tasks that life, following the laws of evolution, places before mankind. Life requires a different approach to certain phenomena and things, and its own intelligence has led mankind into a blind alley it cannot get out of. Had it been otherwise, would the world have ever found itself in the corner it is in?" 34 Recent reports from China indicate certain radical steps in this direction. "New history textbooks in Shanghai barely mention dynasties, wars, and revolutions but concentrate on technology, commerce, and culture Emphasis is made on political stability, respect for other cultures, and

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

58

their old mentality and on in its transformation to make it adequate to the situation developing in the world. As mentioned before, the venerable tradition of solving problems through sheer strength of arms and war is unacceptable in an era of proliferation of new weapons and practically unstoppable means of delivering them. The unchecked rise of consumption and environmental pollution may also result in cataclysms with no way forward. It does not take a genius to see that these and related problems may be solved only through profound changes in the way of life of mankind and the international community. Education is an integral part of the solution to this particular problem. Education has been used to preserve states and ethnic or social communities. Today, the survival of mankind is the central problem. The next generations should associate the notion of motherland with all the world, and not with any particular territory or ethnic group35. This may be accomplished through an appropriate framework of global education and a different emphasis on the part of media outlets (see Chapter 18, Part I. Consciousness). The level of civilization and scientific-technical progress already reached makes the survival of individual groups in global cataclysms highly problematic. Mankind will only survive as an integral entity. Stable peace is possible if education and life itself bring about a radical transformation of the world.

social harmony. This emphasis is an element of a nationwide campaign promoting stability and nonviolence" (Izvestia, World Media Digest, September 11, 2006). 35 This does not mean, of course, that an individual should not feel a special affection for the place where he or she was born and grew up and still has friends and relatives.

Chapter 4

59

Chapter 4

The Evolution of Civilization The development of mankind has been a process of ascent from the primitive communal system through serfdom and feudalism to capitalism, an industrial society, and now its next stage, an information society. Taking place in parallel with social changes and interacting with them was the evolution of technology, culture, ideology, and people's spiritual world. The attained level of production forces could provide everyone, already today, with the necessary means of existence. This is not happening, however: globalization, though it helps to partially mitigate some of the contradictions associated with the peculiarities of local civilizations, leads at the same time to a widening of the gap in living standards between the advanced and backward countries. The gap between the "golden" and starving billions is becoming dangerous for entire mankind. The depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution, the growing world population and consumption by the "golden billion" are problems that keep growing. The arising problems cause local and quite often large-scale, inter-country, conflicts.
he term civilization is used to describe a society of a certain level of technology and culture, as opposed to barbarism. Civilization is associated with division of labor, division of production, stratification of society, and a number of other characteristic features. Also, a civilization can be described as a community of people with a historical, sociocultural, and ethnoterritorial identity, often having a common mentality, ideology, and language. In addition to geographic position, a significant role in the formation of civilizations was played by common approaches to economic activities and in many cases by religion, which helped to develop a common world outlook, rituals, and way of life1. A civilization may embrace a number of countries or even a number of large regions and may be characterized by several or all of the characteristics outlined above. Once it emerged, a new religion or ideology sometimes spread like fire, stopping only at natural borders or at the borders of countries where other principles predominated. Attempts by a civilization to forcefully impose its rules and customs on other communities led to civilizational conflicts one of the main causes of wars.

A civilization's life cycle, including its appearance, development, prosperity, and decay, and transformation or merger with other civilizations may last for several thousand years, but sometimes it can be as short as only a few hundred. Known civilizations include those of Ancient Egypt, Antiquity, Western Europe, Orthodox Christianity, China, India, Islam, the Incas, and many others. Classification of civilizations in each particular case depends on the chosen method of analysis and individual trends of the researcher. For example, a recognized expert in this field, Arnold Toynbee, identified a total of 21 civilizations (Arnold Toynbee, A Study of History)2.
1 Though it is not pleasant to admit it, the fact is that conflicts and wars have made a major contribution in catalyzing the development of civilization. In particular, wars have stimulated consolidation of communities, their growth, construction of fortified cities and technical progress (see chapter 12). 2 For more information about civilizations, see also Civilizations: Theory, History, Dialog, Future by B. Kuzyk, Yu. Yakovets and A. Nekipelov, 2004.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

60

The development of mankind has been a process of ascending from a primitive communal system via serfdom and feudalism to capitalism, an industrial society, and now to its next stage, an information society. The 20th century saw the appearance of a side branch, socialism, which, in its orthodox version, failed to survive in most of the countries where its construction was attempted (however, some traits and principles of socialism were assimilated by the capitalist system). Occurring in parallel with social changes and interacting with them was the evolution of technology, culture, ideology, and people's spiritual world. There were rises and falls on the path of mankind's development, and countries and empires appeared and died; recent epochs have seen an increased tempo of changes in many facets of life. In studying the history of mankind from the primeval era to our day, a researcher may try to find the roots of today's problems and discover ways to solve them. The experience accumulated by mankind in the course of its history should help us to choose the right mode of action in our rapidly changing world. The Initial Stage According to one reconstruction of the history of evolution, our ancestors split off from other primates more than 3 million years ago as a result of a mutation that caused skull deformation, followed by an increase in brain size3. Subsequent evolution led to the appearance of homo erectus in Africa4 the continent with the most favorable climatic conditions and abundance of food. Natural sources of radiation also may have contributed to the mutations that ultimately helped hominids acquire useful characteristics and qualities. A diversity of species was required for homo sapiens to appear. Initially, one of the existing species with rudiments of reason was not very different from others, but it started to develop gradually and consistently. As it came to walk upright, its front limbs freed, and over the period from 2 million years ago to 100 thousand years ago, the volume of its brain more than doubled. The acquired qualities established themselves and further developed and were perfected over the next generations. Our ancestors were yet to learn to labor and pass through many other phases of improvement. Homo sapiens spread over different continents; according to the latest data, they first migrated eastward into Asia along the coastlines of the warm seas and then spread over the colder parts of Eurasia. Only one of several populations survived (nature "tried" different variants), the CroMagnon population (named after the location where the remains of these ancient people were first found)5. One hundred thousand years ago (or earlier), spoken language appeared, leading to a new form of communication that made it easier to convey accumulated knowledge to future generations6. Social organization was accompanied by development of human perception and more sophisticated patterns of behavior.
3 Mutations, by definition, are accidental changes in the genetic code as a result of which children acquire traits their parents did not have. Such genetic changes usually occur under the influence of radiation, chemical agents, or other factors. It is believed that, if a mutation is theoretically possible, it will sooner or later occur; the question is whether environmental conditions will allow it to endure. The evolution, survival, and proliferation of mutated organisms are governed by changes in habitat and stimulated by the necessity for living organisms to adapt to changing environmental conditions. It was only by fortune that mutations in primates led to the appearance of homo sapiens. Recent research led to the discovery of a gene that is believed to be responsible for evolution of the brain. It is argued that, over the last 2 million years, this gene has been developing dozens of times faster than all other segments of the genetic code we inherited from our ancestors. 4 he origin of life on Earth is beyond the scope of this book. We will limit ourselves to quoting the prominent Russian scientist Nikita Moiseev: "We know that about 4 billion years ago a fundamentally new form of organization of matter possessing a number of surprising qualities appeared on Earth... Life on the planet originated explosively and instantaneously. A developed biosphere existed on the surface of the planet 1 billion years after the Earth had formed." The possibility cannot be ruled out that elementary forms of life were brought from space or appeared as a result of special conditions that existed in the neighborhood of the volcanoes. The evolution of living beings on Earth can be described as the process of shuffling and reshuffling of the genetic code over a period of nearly 4 billion years. Quite recently, this process led to the origin of homo sapiens. It is believed that evolution (mutation, trial and error, selection and proliferation of the best adapted organisms) caused all living beings to become more intelligent, and, generally speaking, there were chances for a wide variety of living organisms to become rational. Selforganizing matter must have tried numerous variants before some of them were proven able to survive. Therefore, we should not be surprised to see incredible monsters in science fiction movies viable and intelligent beings may acquire a very wide variety of forms and shapes. I would like to quote Stanislaw Lem: "We move, walk, speak, and live only because myriads of blood corpuscles with molecules of oxygen are circulating every second in billions of locations in our bodies; billions of processes are going on, and these processes hold in check the unending Brownian motion of particles running toward the anarchy of thermal chaos." At this point we are still unable to comprehend many aspects of living organisms, much less the mechanism of their origin. 5 There was another population of ancient people, the Neanderthals, who existed for a long time, but ultimately lost out in competition. It is believed that the physically weaker population of homo sapiens won over their physically stronger rivals thanks to a better system of social organization and better capacity for cooperative action. As it was discovered not very long ago, one more population of ancient people ceased to exist approximately 13-17 thousand years ago. These were the dwarfish people, homo floresiensis, of the Island of Flores (Indonesia). This branch of homo sapiens likely developed from Pithecanthropus. Finally, according to microbiological data, ancient people branched away from apes some 6-6.5 million years ago. 6 There are some interesting facts about settlement of ancient people in the British Isles. The first people appeared there as far back as 700,000 years ago, i.e. approximately at the same time as people settled throughout the entirety of Northern Europe. Many thousands of years later, they left the islands or died as a result of a severe cooling. Subsequent arrivals of people in the British Isles were of short duration and occurred at intervals of many thousands of years. One of these waves was of Neanderthals, 60,000 years ago. Finally, the British Isles became populated

Chapter 4

61

The age of the most primitive tools excavated from ancient settlements has been found to be in excess of 2 million years. (The oldest artificial tool hand chisel has been found at many locations throughout the globe). These findings indicate that the life of ancient people was hard, full of violence, and short; the average life expectancy was about 20 years. Notable landmarks were the use of fire, the invention of the wheel, and domestication of animals7. By living in communities of several families, hunting together, and warring with neighbors, ancient people created the rudiments of civilization; tools at use and methods of their fabrication were gradually getting more and more sophisticated. One of the landmarks in their development is the appearance of wall paintings which indicate a certain level of perception8. Their world outlook was developing as well, and rational thinking (as compared to the unconscious and instincts) increasingly influenced behavior. At that stage, the brain of ancient people was fundamentally different from those of animals..

Migration of People Over the Last 50 Thousand Years from Vokrug Sveta
(Around the World) magazine, June 2005

Dramatic changes took place with the transition from hunting and gathering to plant growing and livestock herding. At a certain moment, the idea was born to use pictures to convey messages. Such symbolic drawings ultimately led to the appearance of alphabets and written language, which happened several thousand years before the Common Era9. From then on accumulated information was preserved and conveyed not only in verbal form. The appearance of written language catalyzed the proliferation of knowledge and accelerated general development: The efficiency of food production increased, tools improved, and people began to produce and use metals. Increase in labor efficiency led to social stratification, specialization, and division of labor. That was the time when the use of slave labor came into being10 the first urban settlements appeared, and construction of seafaring boats began in coastal areas. The same period of time witnessed the invention of first notions of life after death, cults, and myths, and small communities of people merged together, marking a shift from tribal society to state like formations with des12,000 years ago, this time by people of a modern type, and have since then been populated permanently. The national structure of the population experienced frequent changes due to invasions from the Continent, but people have not left the islands since those times. (Professor Anton Obraztsov). 7 Horse domestication in the 4th thousand BC was a notable landmark. Apparently, the biggest effect it had in the steppe areas of South Russia and Ukraine the presumed cradle of the Indo-European peoples. 8 "There had been at least two major breakthroughs in the human brain development. One had occurred approximately 40 thousand years ago and another one about 10 thousand years ago. The former is associated with the appearance of wall paintings in the caves and the latter with the domestication of animals and cultivation of plants. Obviously, these notable achievements had resulted from spontaneous and drastic developments of the human brain. An interesting question to ask here is whether the human brain continues developing nowadays on the biological level. At this moment we are not ready to answer this question with certainty. However, we have made computers which represent an extension of the human brain," quoted from full member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vyacheslav Ivanov. 9 Some modern writing systems, such as the Chinese script, are ideographic, i.e., have a graphic structure directly related to the meaning. 10 Slave labor came into being when people started producing more than was required to support life. Earlier, captives were simply killed, and very often eaten.

The power of reason, which appeared as a result of evolution, became a powerful tool helping ancient people to survive and laid the foundation for the present dominant position of people on the planet. The downside of such a great success in technology and cognition was the creation of techniques and devices that put the existence of the human species in danger. The critical factor here is the relatively slow progress in culture, morality, and tolerance compared to that in science and technology and in the development of destructive weapons. The main question of today is whether the destructive trends will prevail or mankind will manage to achieve yet another breakthrough in perception and the power of reason, thus making it possible for the human species to survive and take a path of controllable and sustainable development.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

62

potic state power and various power structures with all their attributes, including monumental architecture. (The products of this monumental architecture have been preserved to our day and serve as one of the sources of information about ancient civilizations.) A good deal of political and social power belonged to priests, who were actively involved in governance of society. The path of civilizational development was not without its crises. For example, crises occurred when more sophisticated and effective hunting weapons appeared, leading to excessive animal slaughter that undermined the food base. However, every time new approaches and new solutions were found, leading to the invention of new means of sustaining life that provided not only for restoration of the human population, but also for its growth. Brief Survey of the Development of Civilization In the Old World, the first civilizations, Egyptian and Sumerian,11 appeared in North Africa and Asia Minor (they existed from about 3400 to 500 BC), followed by the Cretan, or Minoan, civilization (from 2500 to 1400 BC) and the Greek civilization that existed in the second third of the last millennium BC. The areas occupied by these civilizations developed into major points of contact between Europe, Asia, and Africa. Numerous forays and wars, conquests of neighboring areas and peoples, development of intergroup trade, and migration stimulated proliferation of knowledge, ethnic intermixing, and formation of new languages. The Indus river valley civilization developed in a pattern similar to the civilizations of Egypt and Mesopotamia. The Indus civilization ranks among the few largest river basin civilizations. Another civilization developed in the areas currently belonging to India, Pakistan and China. Each civilization developed through stages of crop farming, livestock farming, bronze-tool making, a written language, construction of cities and temples, formation of states and power hierarchies. There was a moment in history in which ancient India and its neighboring territories were influenced by an Indo-European invasion from the north (from the territory of modern Ukraine and southern Russia); the Indo-Europeans subsequently mixed with locals. China was partially isolated by Tibet, the Himalayas, and the Gobi Desert and was located farther from the first ancient civilizations. Later, having united numerous peoples under the umbrella of a unitary state, China built a many-thousand-kilometer-long wall in attempt to obtain protected from potential invasions from the north. Thanks to the remoteness and natural barriers, the Chinese, unlike many other civilizations, have managed to preserve their identity and original traits to the modern day. In addition to their territorial integrity, the Chinese have retained their language and many customs and ways of life. China's communication with the West increased shortly before the start of the Common Era. Later, the Chinese undertook efforts aimed at establishing trade and diplomatic contacts with faraway countries. The Great Silk Road was established, and in the early 15th century several Chinese flotillas of several dozen vessels each reached the east coast of Africa (about 100 years before Columbus' discovery of America). Important role was played by China's northern neighbors the Tatar-Mongols. Their aggressive cavalry squadrons conquered vast territories, including, beside China, Central Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and controlled them for several centuries to come. As an archipelago, Japan had also been isolated for many centuries and developed on its own undergoing unification of individual communities, local wars, formation and stable existence of a noble hierarchy (samurai). For many centuries, its system of government was based on the actual or formal rule by Mikado or Emperor who was believed to possess the "divine origination charisma." In the era of the Mongol-Tatar invasion, Japan luckily escaped the fate of many Eurasian countries mainly thanks to its isolation from the continent; in the second half of the 13th century, typhoons twice saved Japan by sinking Mongol armadas. For a long time, America developed independently from the Old World. It is believed that the first people came to America 12,000-15,000 years ago (according to other sources, 30,000-40,00 years ago). They came from Asia across the Bering Straight (the straight was then dry, as the World Ocean level was about 100 meters lower during the last Ice Age), and gradually they settled over both of the Americas. Some time earlier (50,000-60,000 years ago), the first people reached Australia (though the Polynesians reached New Zealand only in the 13th century). While Old World civilizations developed in Europe and Asia, the Mayans, Incas and Aztecs emerged and developed in America. There are indications suggesting that the Vikings reached America by sea long before the Columbus discovery of America, approximately 1,000 years ago, but were ousted by the native. Developing in similar natural and climatic conditions, ancient people encountered similar problems and found similar solutions in the sphere of production and in social relations. Several thousand years BC, ancient people developed some forms of agriculture, followed by construction of housing and irrigation systems, social stratification, and urban construction. All human beings possessing similar physiological qualities, perception, and
11

The territories of modern Iraq and Syria.

Chapter 4

63

instincts (according to the available data, human brain has not changed in the last several thousand years), human civilizations developed in very similar ways: rulers and governments; clergy and high priests; internecine wars and foreign invasions; customs and rites, often with human sacrifice; etc. However, there were differences as well: for example, the wheel was almost unknown among the native peoples of the New World. Then, in the Middle Ages, with the invasion of "more civilized" and better-armed Europeans, the native population in the Americas was largely exterminated12. In some regions the natives intermixed with conquerors, and in the Amazon rainforests (as in several other remote spots on the planet) primeval tribes have been preserved to this day with almost no changes in their ways of life. A very important role in history was played by the Ancient Greek civilization: several hundred years before the Common Era, a democratic system of government suddenly appeared in a world that had for thousands of years been dominated by despotic and totalitarian regimes. This was a real breakthrough, an important shift in the history of the human species13. The Ancient Greeks formed a civil society, a political structure based on private property, where the government for the first time functioned not as an oppressor, but an instrument employed by the population. Government functionaries were elected, and peoples' assemblies were regularly called. These achievements manifested themselves much later, almost 2,000 years thereafter, when, in the Renaissance, a democratic system formed the cornerstone of the liberal states of Western Europe. It is be no exaggeration to say that many things that originated in Ancient Greece later formed the foundation of modern civilization14. Many Greek achievements were adopted by Ancient Rome, which was for a long period of time a democratically ruled republic. However, the temptation to seize and usurp power was too great for the leaders to resist, and close to the beginning of the Common Era the republic turned into an empire. The establishment, development, flourishing, and sometimes degeneration of isolated island communities (Easter Island and others of the kind) took place according to different scenarios. There, where the population was sparse, communities did not progress far from the primitive, barbaric level. Some of these communities ended up in complete self-extermination. The ancient civilizations were followed by the Byzantine, Persian, Ottoman, and other empires, which lasted for several hundred years each. These were the times in which the Tatar-Mongols (Genghis Khan and his descendants) conquered vast territories and the Turkic state flourished for a while. With the development of sea navigation and progress in a number of other spheres over the last 500 years, Europeans acquired a dominating influence in the world. They conquered vast territories in Africa, Asia, America, Australia, New Zealand, and many islands. South America went mostly to the Spanish and the Portuguese, while the British and the French took possession of North America. Russia expanded into Central Asia and the Caucasus to the south, into Scandinavia to the northwest, to the Arctic coast to the north, and to the Pacific coast and even farther to the east. Furthermore, Russia took possession of several regions to the south of Siberia. By the early 20th century, the overall territory of Russia was equal to that of one-sixth of the Earth's landmass. The formations and collapses of the Spanish, Swedish and Austro-Hungarian empires took place within a relatively recent period of history. At one point, the British Empire became the largest of all, having conquered countries throughout the globe with a colossal population (about a quarter of the world's), hence the saying that "the sun never sets on the British Empire" (at a different time, exactly the same was said about the Spanish Empire for about 100 years after its New World conquests, Spain was the greatest power in Europe). As a political formation, the British Empire in a certain sense could be defined as a "civilization," as it possessed the necessary set of characteristic features, such as a common language, identical or similar methods of economic management, similar power structures, cultural institutions, etc. The British Empire lasted until the mid-20th century, when it passed on the torch of world leader to its progeny, the United States of America, which at that time was contesting for world dominance with the Soviet Union, the then-successor of Russia. The Russian Empire was one of the largest and longest-lived empires in world history. It was called the successor to the legacy of the Byzantine empire: Moscow was the "Third Rome," the center of Orthodox Christianity, after the "Second Rome," Constantinople15. (At one time there were plans to conquer Constantinople, take
12 For example, by the year 1523, 100 years after the European invasion, the native population of Nicaragua declined from 500,000 to 10,000 people. 13 The ancient model of democracy applied to only those inhabitants of the country who were free citizens, while the country's economy was based on the use of slave labor. In Athens, slaves constituted about one-third of the population. 14 It is appropriate to recall that the Olympic Games too originated from Ancient Greece. They were played between the 8th century BC and the 4th century BC and then were resumed only after more than 2,000 years, in 1886. The modern Olympics are worldwide events, but unlike in Antiquity, when everything stopped during the Games, both the World Wars of the 20th century stopped the Olympics. Contrary to the ancient Olympic traditions, the modern Olympics are often used as an instrument of political struggle: for example, in 1980 the West boycotted the Moscow Olympics. These and many other facts only serve to demonstrate that, with the development of civilization, people do not tend to become more peaceloving. 15 For reference: the Roman Empire was there for some 500 years; Byzantine Empire existed for 1,100 years; Ottoman Empire's life span was equal to 500 years; British Empire collapsed after 150 years and Austro-Hungarian empire lasted for 100 years.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

64

the neighboring territories and Black Sea water routes under control, get an access to Palestine, etc.). In the late 1870s, Russia was about to make a move to implement these plans, but stopped under the pressure of the opposition from several European powers.)16. It is interesting to note that Russia too had historical experience of democratic rule the Novgorod veche (popular assembly), which existed in the 12th-14th centuries (the Novgorod veche was the first parliament in Europe after Rome)17. There were periods of rivalry between the Russian and British empires over territory and influence in certain regions, as well as military clashes. (However, in both the World Wars of the 20th century, Russia and Great Britain fought together against Germany and its allies). In 1945 the colonial powers that had won World War Two fighting for their own freedom did not even think of abolishing the colonial system as something unjust. It was only in 1960, when most colonial countries had already won their independence, that the United Nations adopted a Declaration on Granting Independence to Colonial Peoples and Countries "to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small" and solemnly proclaimed "the necessity of bringing to a speedy and unconditional end colonialism in all its forms and manifestations." Every empire left its imprint in the cultures of the peoples that were parts of it, including in their customs, languages, political systems, etc.18. However, most of the former colonies have fallen behind their parent states and now remain in an underdeveloped condition in need of radical reforms. In addition to their internal economic and political problems, the new independent countries often suffer from civil wars and conflicts with their neighbors. The world entered the 21st century without empires19, but with a great number of new states. Conversely, the loss of imperial status often caused the former empires to suffer postimperial nostalgia. As regards the role and place of various civilizations in the modern world, most conspicuous are the unusually strong positions of Japan, compared to what it was in the previous centuries, specifically in trade, technology and engineering. A number of small countries of that region South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and some others, have risen to a new, higher, level. China is demonstrating steady progress, and its economy has the prospects of becoming No. 1 in the world already in the first third of this century. Drastic changes are taking place in India. The barbarian invasion hampered the development of the Western Europe, but later it regained momentum and rushed ahead. Hot on the trail of the ancient civilizations, the Roman Empire emerged shortly before the start of the Common Era and rapidly expanded to occupy lands from Jerusalem to Eastern Europe. However, a vast multiethnic state based on slave labor had proven unable to last for more than 400-500 years20. "Free husbandmen, who were the main source of fresh soldiers for the Roman imperial legions, gradually vanished, and the army started recruiting soldiers from the barbarian tribes. Moreover, barbarians, complete with all the attributes of barbarian despotism, emerged on the imperial throne. The famous roads turned into wilderness and were infested with bandits The Library of Alexandria was destroyed by fire, and people forgot how to make cement and good weapons Europe sank deep into medievalism," as Nikita Moiseev has put it. Settlements were abandoned, cultivated arable lands turned into wildernesses, centralized rule ceased to exist, and the territories, in some sense, acquired independence. The well-organized multiethnic community of peoples had collapsed, yielding to the onslaught of the uncivilized barbarian tribes. The invasions that brought the Roman Empire to its collapse in the 4-5th century only added to the crisis that had already begun in the army, culture, economy, and politics. As a result, the crisis acquired a catastrophic character. Armed gangs dominated the scene and the law of strength ousted all other laws. The era was characterized by "degradation of crafts and workshops, breakup of ages-long trading ties, obliteration of technical knowledge, degradation of the arts, substitution of strength for law and policies," quoted from Bestuzhev-Lada, The History of Humanity. There were several attempts at restoring the Roman Empire, including in the early 6th century during the rule of Emperor Justinian the Great when the African lands and part of Spain were taken back. One of the most successful attempts at restoring the Roman Empire was made shortly after the so-called Dark Ages (the 6th-8th centuries AD). Several regions in Western Europe united under the Carolingian Frankish dynasty. The union lasted from 750 to 850 AD, and its culmination was the coronation of Charlemagne (Charles the Great) in 800 AD. Contemporaries recognized the unification as a revival of the Roman Empire, which was welcomed by
16 The following is what Russian poet and diplomat Fyodor Tyutchev said about Russia's plans in that period of history: "Open a new era for Europe... Re-unite the two churches Eastern and Western, put an Orthodox emperor to rule in Constantinople and have an Orthodox Pope in Rome subject of the former." 17 In addition to Novgorod, a veche existed in Pskov and in several other Russian cities. 18 The important landmark in the collapse of the colonial empires was the 1955 Bandung Conference an international anticolonial forum which effectively proclaimed the birth of the Third World. The 29 African and Asian countries represented at the conference were later joined by dozens of new independent states. 19 Unless we ascribe imperial status to China and India, for their colossal size and multiethnic composition. 20 There are several theories of what the primary causes of the Roman Empire's collapse were, including degradation due to lead poisoning (water in Rome was supplied through pipes made of lead), moral decline of the ruling elite, excessive infiltration of barbarians into the army and power structures, a malaria epidemic in the 5th century, and (perhaps the number one theory) the flawed social and economic system.

Chapter 4

65

many as a desirable alternative to the rampant barbarism. Charlemagne established a state administration and system of education for government functionaries and gave out land and noble titles to his most loyal supporters; the latter, in turn, granted land and titles to their vassals, and this was the beginning of Europe's feudalization. The union collapsed after one hundred years, but had laid the foundations for a number of future states. Barbarian attacks resumed from various directions. Vikings and Normans terrorized Europe's coastal lands to Italy. The invaders settled on the conquered lands, including in Normandy, from which they later conquered England. Yet earlier, Muslims invaded from south, and in the 8th century they occupied the Pyrenean Peninsula. The country now called Spain was then called Al-Andalus, or Andalusia, and its capital, the city of Cordova, was one of Europe's largest, richest, and most cultured cities. At times the Arab army came close to Paris. The Hungarians who flowed in from the east in the 10th century were compared with the Huns who warred through Europe until the first hundreds of the Common Era. The German kingdom that formed in the mid-10th century was an empire embracing northern and central Italy and what is now the Czech Republic. The new state was called the Roman Empire (later the Holy Roman Empire), and its emperors claimed to be heirs to the legacy of the Ancient Rome and, hence, the rulers of Europe. That was the beginning of a new phase in the development of European civilization. The 11th-13th centuries (High Middle Ages) were a period of growth in the population, cultivated land area, and cities. "Western Europe reached Antiquity's economic level in terms of per capita GDP The landowners tried to place a heavier burden on the peasants. The peasants answered with sabotage, disturbances, and sometimes major uprisings In a large part of Europe, peasants succeeded in retain the freedoms they had enjoyed in the previous stage of development. In Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary, and Romania) peasants were pushed back into serfdom and bondage and were made into property of landlords In Russia, the system of serfdom had formed by the early 16th century," as Yegor Gaidar described in A Long Time, 2005. For most of the period, there was a struggle for domination between the Roman Catholic Church (the Pope) and the rulers of the emerging states; later, the Church lost this battle for supremacy in Europe's major countries. The 11th-13th centuries were a period of Crusades toward the East; the declared goal was to liberate Jerusalem and Palestine from the Muslims. When the crusaders came to the East from their dull and insipid Europe, they saw a very different world, a world that impressed them with its signs of progress and enlightenment. Europeans looked almost barbaric beside the intelligent Arabs, who were interested in poetry, astronomy, mathematics, and philosophy. The Crusades involved much robbery and looting21. In inspiring the Crusades, the Roman Church was pursuing an additional goal: to settle scores with the Eastern, Byzantine, branch of Christianity. This segment of the Roman Empire which survived the collapse of the 4th century had preserved almost until the 15th century when Constantinople was seized by the Turks. Other Crusades were organized in support of the liberation (reconquista) of the territory of modern Spain from the Muslims; the reconquista was successfully completed in the 15th century. Jews were expelled from the territory as well. The rulers of Spain proclaimed themselves Catholic kings as they relinquished their former monarchic titles of three religions Christianity, Islam, and Judaism. Europe's culture began to change in the 11th-12th centuries. Universities were established in many cities. The philosophical and other scholarly schools that appeared in Italy in the 14th century laid the foundation for cultural development over several centuries to come. The 15th-16th centuries were the phenomenal epoch of the Renaissance, which overturned the former medieval ethical and esthetic paradigms. The fresh wind of humanistic creativity that came in place of canons and scholastics helped to form a new mentality, first among the intelligentsia and later among the broad masses of the population, and catalyzed social reforms. Enthusiastic and flourishing trade (the Hanseatic league, the city states of Venice and Genoa, etc.) reigned over vast territories. The feudal system, which replaced the slave economy, proved to be much more economically efficient. By definition, a feudal system is a system where suzerains, or lords, grant fiefs to their vassals, who rule the land thus granted in the name of their lord. The period of feudal disintegration was followed by centralization of power and the establishment of countrywide state power infrastructures. After numerous wars and transformations, modern European states were formed: England, France, Italy, Germany, etc. Importantly, this was the time when the concept of a "nation" as a community of people united by culture, traditions, language, and system of government came into being. Progress in mechanics, technology, machine building, and shipbuilding was accompanied by political and social changes. The Industrial Revolution was at the doorstep of Western Europe: the steam engine, electricity, and other inventions indicative of a new level of civilization appeared. A real breakthrough occurred in the 17th-18th centuries, when gradual technological developments led to machines replacing manual labor, which dramatically increased labor productivity. Having started in England, industrial progress and social and economic developments spread
21

The 12th-century Arab chronicler Usama Ibn Munkiz wrote about the Crusaders that "They are animals, and they are only good at fighting"

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

66

over to the United States, Western Europe, and other parts of the world. Secular national states appeared then to replace theocratic institutions. The bourgeois revolutions that rolled over Western European in the 19th century marked the completion of a new social formation22. The United States of America's Declaration of Independence, the first-ever statutory document proclaiming the basic idea of popular sovereignty, signaled the legalization of a new system of government23. Mankind was entering a fundamentally new epoch in its development. Eastern Europe's Slavic people maintained much closer ties with the Eastern, Byzantine, branch of Christian culture. Contacts with the faraway China and India were rather scarce. Furthermore, the development of Eastern Europe was interrupted in the 13th century by the Mongol-Tatar invasions, which stopped the processes of development for more that 200 years. ("Russia burst into Asia, particularly into Siberia, in the 16th century. But Asia burst into Russia and was established there by 300 years earlier Our country has always been between the West and the East, and, alas, more often as a shield than as a bridge," quoted from Yegor Gaidar.) It was much later, in the 17th-18th centuries, that Peter the Great made remarkable efforts to import the achievements of Western Europe into Russia and try to catch up with the West24. However, "westernization" in the spheres of culture and science was accompanied by the strengthening of despotism in the social system. As Georgy Plekhanov put it, attempts were being made to attach European hands to an Asian body. (Incidentally, serfdom was abolished in Russia only in the second half of the 19th century, i.e., far later than in other countries of Europe25. Alexander Radishchev held that autocracy (samoderzhavie) was, of all governments, the one "most contrary to human nature." Two hundred years of serfdom and 70 years of "barracks communism," and adds to this about 250 years of the Tatar yoke these calamities could not but leave their imprints on the national mentality and perception of the Russians. In the East, development and progress went on their own. There were conflicts and wars, Arab caliphates, the Persian conquest, the campaigns of Tamerlane, the invasion of India, etc. The Arabs partly preserved and developed ancient culture. Invading southern Europe, they brought in their manufacturing and construction techniques, as well as new weapons. The flourishing of the Arab caliphate on the territory of modern Span in the first millennium played a truly significant role in the area's cultural development. As noted above, the Arabs dominated the Pyrenean Peninsula for many centuries, but were ultimately driven away. Technological and Other Aspects of the Development of World Civilization Now, after a brief overview of the ways local civilizations have developed, it will be most interesting in this context to look at world civilization as a whole and the regularities of its development. To start with, we will identify three basic stages in the development of a civilization corresponding to different levels of technology: Agrarian (from primitive societies to the middle of the second millennium AD), industrial (from the 16th to 17th centuries), and postindustrial (which for a number of countries began in the mid-20th century). Sometimes these stages are referred to as "preindustrial," "industrial," and "postindustrial." The chronological boundaries are provisional and differ for different countries. A characteristic feature of early agrarian or traditional society was conservatism, i.e., insistence on stability and predictability. Each family or clan had a specialization and belonged to a certain social rank. Information on the unchangeable ways of life and methods of farming was transferred from one generation to another. Knowledge and techniques ancient people needed to survive were passed down for many centuries: how to find edible herbs, how to make fire, how to drive a wild animal into a trap, how to repel a neighboring tribe's attack, etc. Once established, these ways of life remained virtually unchanged. In a primitive society
22 A brief chronology for England runs as follows. Late 6th century: conversion to Christianity. The 11th century: establishment of feudalism. The late 15th century: the Renaissance (politics, arts, etc.). The second half of the 16th century: expansion by sea. The 17th century: bourgeois revolution and parliamentary rule, The late 18th century: an industrialized economy. Here and below, I will refer to the most commonly used historical chronology. Also, there is an alternative approach proposed by Nikolai Morozov, Anatoly Fomenko, et al., who argue that there is an error in the generally accepted chronology, a shift by approximately 1 thousand years, i.e., that now we have entered not the third but the second millennium. However, this disagreement between the two concepts of history does not have any significant impact on the main ideas and conclusions expressed in this book. 23 The following rights and freedoms were recognized as natural, or inalienable, human rights: the right to use one's physical, intellectual, and moral powers and the products of one's labor, the right to personal inviolability, the right to freedom of speech and thought, the right to freedom of correspondence, the right to freedom of conscience and religion, and the right to choose one's social life. 24 The main directions of "Europeanization" at that time were social reforms, industrial development, introduction of the so-called "Table of Ranks" (service grades), church reform, establishment of the Baltic Fleet, Russia's proclamation as an empire, and consolidation of the country's international prestige. 25 In this sense Russia was somewhat similar to the United States. The difference, however, was that in the United States slaves were brought from other territories, while in Russia serfs were natives. Here it is appropriate to recall that racial discrimination in the United States ended recently, with the Civil Rights Act of 1964. It was not until a year later that Blacks acquired the right to vote in the Southern states. The year 2008 marked a real breakthrough when Afro-American became elected president of the United States.

Chapter 4

67

"everything goes by the established order. Any disputes or conflicts are resolved together by those whom they concern by a clan, a tribe, or several clans Everybody is free and equal, including women. Slaves have not appeared yet; neither have enslaved foreign tribes," Friedrich Engels wrote. All that was produced was gathered into a common pool and distributed between clan members according to their respective social status. Class hierarchy appeared at a certain time. A characteristic feature of the later stages was the merger of power and property under the determining role of the former. Those in power took commanding positions and forced their fellows to give them part of what was produced. Very often, the leaders also took the responsibility of defending their community from external aggressors. Both internal or external subjugators sought to relieve ordinary people of everything in excess of the minimum required to support life. However, if an external aggressor had no plans to stay on the occupied territory for any length of time, he would deprive the locals of everything, thus dooming them to death. Industrial civilizations developed following industrial revolutions and the invention and proliferation of machines and factories. A number of features appeared in traditional societies that subsequently catalyzed their transition to the next stage, that of industrial society. These new features were, first of all, developed property and monetary relations and trade, including international trade. The High Middle Ages gave birth to crafts and workmanship, including of metal, stone, and glass. The development of craftsmanship, in turn, influenced social life and relations and cities became divided into working areas. The great geographical discoveries also catalyzed economic changes as well as changes in people's mentality and attitudes. According to the available historical records, industrial civilization first appeared in Europe and had de facto opposed itself to the traditionalistic East26. The dominant trends in the West were liberalism and individualism, as opposed to Eastern despotism. There, is, however, a different, more peaceful view on the everlasting problem of East and West: "In the wisdoms of the East and the West, we do not see not any antagonism or hatred, but we rather two poles between life ways" (Hermann Hesse)27. A new human society was born that was radically different from all previous ones and laid the foundation for modern society. Two of its characteristic features were active development and use of innovative technologies and the appearance of labor and capital markets, labor itself becoming merchandise and cities becoming centers of production. If in 1800 the proportion of the world's urban population was 3%, today the corresponding figure is approaching 50% (80% in the developed countries). In 1950, only New York could boast a population in excess of 10 million, while according to available forecasts there will be 20 cities with populations of over 10 million and another 40 cities with populations from 5 million to 10 million people on the planet by 2015. The energy and dynamics of the society that formed in Europe caused it to expand and "westernize" a large part of the modern world. Revolutionary changes embraced all aspects of life, including the economy, politics, social systems, technologies, culture, mentality, ideology, perceptions, and attitudes. It would be appropriate to say that individual freedom replaced obedience to rulers. The results of the social and political revolutions that rolled over Europe in the 16th-19th centuries included changes in the system of distribution of wealth and the formation of a new mentality and new type of personality (social reforms started even earlier, in the 14th-15th centuries. The Dutch, French, and British revolutions either abolished or severely curtailed monarchical powers and established democratic forms of rule. Monarchies have been preserved to this day only in a few dozen of a total of more than 200 countries, while until recently (relatively speaking) the world was mostly ruled by despotic regimes. The epoch under consideration marked the end of the dominance of the clergy and nobility, while a new ruling class, the bourgeoisie, emerged on the scene. Widespread use of the written language (the invention of printing press by Johannes Gutenberg in the 15th century) gave rise to writing culture and general literacy. Means of transportation and communication improved beyond any expectations, and people acquired dramatically broadened opportunities, including choice of occupation and residence often, the latter went as far as choice of a country to live in. Individual freedom, combined with technological breakthroughs and growth in labor productivity, led to a marked improvement in people's quality of life; suffice it to say that the average life expectancy has doubled in the developed countries over the last 150 years, while at the same time the gap in the quality of life and culture between those who live in the developed countries and those who live in the Third World has been widening rapidly and continues to widen. Sometimes it is said that part of mankind now lives almost in the 22nd century (or, at least, in a full-fledged 21st century), while the others are still somewhere in the 17th-18th centuries. Thus far, human civilization has developed largely at the expense of nature and its resources. With growing population and consumption, people invent more and more sophisticated and powerful tools to influence the environment. As a result, we are witnessing increased industrial emissions, water pollution, dam construction, deforestation, rocket
26 The modern notion of the "East" is different from the old one, due to the radical changes that have occurred in a number of Eastern countries. Their ways of life and mentality have come closer to Western ones (see Chapter 8, Changes in the Mentality of Nations). 27 According to estimates by specialists, in the 11th century Western Europe was far behind the East (China, India and Iran) in terms of economic development (or per capita GDP), but gained clear leadership by the end of the 18th century.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

68

It might seem that the progress in many directions of human activity should have led to improvements in relations between different communities, contributing to their reconciliation. However, this did not occur. As Pitirim Sorokin's autobiography A Long Journey states, "the wave of death, brutality and ignorance that engulfed the world in the believed-to-be-civilized 20th century came as an absolute contradiction to the saccharine theories of progressive that human beings were evolving from ignorance to wisdom and science, from a bestial state to dignity and morality, from barbarianism to civilization, from 'geological' to 'positive' stages of social development, from tyranny to freedom, from poverty and disease to unlimited prosperity and health, from the worst of beasts to demigods."

and missile launches, and extermination of animal species. "No strategy can be traced in the chaotic activities that are called the development of civilization, except the desire to expand in all direction simultaneously," as Professor Alexei Losev stated.

The role and place of women underwent changes at various stages of the development of civilization. Women enjoyed leading positions in the early stages of primitive societies, but later men gained the upper hand, this sometimes being accompanied by subjugation of the other sex. Even today women are not equally treated in many countries of the East28. Even in the most developed countries, and despite formally proclaimed equality, women rarely hold managerial positions and are paid less than men on average29; obviously, the reason for this is President of Argentina not so much that women spend more time working about the house or bringCristina Kirchner ing up children as it is rooted in old prejudices and traditions that have existed for ages. At the same time, there have been quite a few occurrences in history of women occupying top ruling positions. Nowadays, the situation tends to show signs of improvement30, and there is reason to believe that in the future we will see more women in high positions, which will probably help alleviate aggressive tendencies in world politics31. After all, the feminine nature is in this sense better than the masculine one. The Postindustrial and Information Society Progress in science and technology brought about such a tremendous increase in labor productivity that now a relatively small number of people can satisfy primary needs of the others. For example, at the end of the last century a farmer in a developed country could produce enough food for 100-150 people, and it took less than 100 man-hours to produce a car. Normally, a car serves its owner for 5-10 years. i.e., many, many thousands of hours. In other words, the number of work hours required to produce a car is much less than the number of hours its end user can enjoy driving it. Modern automated production lines can replace thousands of workers and be serviced by a few specialists. Even if we add the labor input of those who designed and built these automated production lines, the number of people whose needs can be satisfied by a single worker exceeds the later 100-fold or even more. Of course, these calculations are only true for the world's leading countries, like the United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, and a few others. In the United States, the number of people employed in material production is much less than the numbers employed in the service industry and in research. Although labor productivity in the sphere of services is still lagging behind that in material production, it tends to increase with the introduction of computer technologies. Automation of physical labor is rapidly followed by automation of intellectual work. The percentage of people employed in scientific research, culture, and other intellectual activities continues to increase. "Scientific research triumphed in the second half of the 20th century A breakthrough into the microworld of the atom is promising us an abundance of energy! A breakthrough into the macroworld of space is promising us mastery of the Solar System! A breakthrough into the world of plastics is promising us the possibility of creating any material with any desired properties! A 'Green

In addition to being deprived of civil rights, women in many countries are forcefully subjected to a brutal surgical operation, clitorectomy. This brutal surgery is performed on many millions of girls every year. Until not very long ago, Indian traditions required widows to immolate themselves. 29 The proportion of women among top managers of major Western companies is under 20%; in Russia, it is under 10%. 30 There is even a UN resolution establishing that in each country women should hold not less than 20% of the ruling positions (they did not even dare to speak about 50%). In Chile, which is a conservative and Catholic country, a single mother recently won the presidential elections. Although a law "On Equal Employment" was adopted in Japan in the end of the last century, problems still arose about naming a woman empress as the nominal supreme head of state. 31 The term "gender problem" is often used today in a sociocultural sense in discussions about the balance of feminine and masculine roles in modern society.
28

Chapter 4

69

Revolution' is promising us an abundance of food soon! Mechanization! Automation!! Computerization!!!," as Igor Bestuzhev-Lada expressed himself on the topic32. A new notion has come into being "human capital" i.e., a combination of knowledge and skills that may be used in production or for other gains. Part of it is acquired in the system of education, while the rest comes from on-the-job training. (Sometimes, the term "quality of population" is used, which, in addition to knowledge and skills, includes the level of health and ethics). Human perceptions, mentality, and behavior now have to adapt to the new conditions of life. The term "Future Shock," which appeared in the United States in the 1980s, was invented precisely in order to describe the increased pressure exerted on the human psyche by the rapidly changing reality. (Here it is appropriate to recall how the Russian people recently lived through changes of national ideology, social order, state power, and economic system, not to mention social status and quality of life. Also, see Chapter 7 and Chapter 8 about the radical changes undergone by the German and Japanese people after World War II). The main source of economic growth are high technologies that help to increase labor efficiency and make our living conditions more comfortable. In order to achieve success in a modern society, one is required to be better educated and possess strong skills and aptitudes. The focus of the new society is shifting toward the most valuable "commodity," knowledge, and therefore the role of the producers of it, i.e., research institutes and laboratories, universities, and R&D centers, is increasing. The quality of public education tends to improve drastically. Here it is appropriate to note that over the period from 1950 through 1970, the number of positions requiring higher education in the United States increased twice as rapidly as the number of blue-collar jobs. A person's importance, pay, and prestige are determined by his or her ability to discover or generate something new, such as new ideas, inventions, technologies, or other kinds of valuable information. It is easy to see that valuable information is becoming the principal resource and virtue of the leading countries. Naturally, the owners of new information obtain superprofits, especially given that any innovative product rapidly spreads throughout the world and is consumed (and hence bought) by hundreds of millions of people. It is not surprising that heavily staffed laboratories are working on seemingly insignificant household items. The production of knowledge and knowhow is turning into a leading industry that determines progress in all other industries. Both fundamental and applied sciences are rapidly gaining momentum, with a focus on the search for new materials, more advanced machines and home appliances, and life and health products and the study of nature with its laws and regularities. However, it is true that more often than not research is primarily directed at military development.
Social and political studies and humanitarian technologies designed to stimulate necessary changes in human perception and attitudes to ensure peace on the planet and sustainable development are of great importance. I am convinced that it is time to give these studies a priority. The present situation in the world demands it.

Modern studies of development tend to focus on the progress in accumulation of knowledge. A new stage, information society33, has been determined as a stage in the development of postindustrial society. A characteristic feature of a postindustrial society is that more than half of the population is employed in the sphere of services, while a much smaller segment is involved in agriculture and material production. The distinguishing feature of the new, information, stage is that the overwhelming majority of the population works in the sphere of information and intellectual activities34. According to the American sociologist Daniel Bell, in a postindustrial society (this applies even more so to an information society) "education and living standards become the core public commitments the class of technical specialists becomes the main occupational group." In an information society, a research scientist, even a professor, is involved in production processes to no lesser an extent than, say, a production manager, because no innovation is possible without his active involvement. In the past, people fought for land; then, they fought for strategic resources; and now their goal is information, knowledge, and those who bear such secret knowledge. At this stage, life is acquiring a new fundamental quality: Any person at any given moment of time can access any information he may need or want from any location. Interestingly, this is what Andrei Sakharov predicted as far back as in 1974: "Far in the future, more than 50 years from now, I foresee a universal in32

Later in his article, Igor Bestuzhev-Lada does write about a "bitter hangover": "Nuclear energy means Chernobyl! Space, if not an arena for the arms race, may wait! Plastics are a cancer threat. The 'Green Revolution' is transforming the Earth's surface into smears of mutilated land. In general, progress in science alone, without an adequate legal system, moral principles (and adequate perception Evgeny Abramyan) is leading mankind to a dead-end Nevertheless, however dramatic the situation might turn out to be, we will not make it to the 22nd century without science. It is up to science (in close cooperation with all other forms of human and social perception) to help resolve the global problems facing mankind today, including that of a humanistic transition into a fundamentally new state." The latter issue is precisely one of the main points of this book. 33 Also called the "open society" or "enlightened society." 34 According to predictions, in the near future in the United States there will be about 2.5 million workers, 300 thousand-400 thousand farmers, and approximately 40 million employed in activities directly related to information technologies. Japan has set even a more ambitious goal: to completely relieve people of physical labor in the next several years.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

70

formation system (UIS), which will give everyone access at any given moment to the contents of any book that has ever been published, or any magazine, or any fact But the true historic role of the UIS will be to break down the barriers to the exchange of information between countries and people." Modern information and communication technologies make it possible for people to not only work from home, but participate in conferences, communicate with colleagues, and even to conduct experiments through remote control of laboratory equipment. It will be easier to establish new corporate connections, shift to new field of search, renew one's circle of acquaintances, and improve or modify one's skills. It will be possible for any specialist to work from any point on the globe. A number of long-distance surgical operations have already been performed, with the doctor and patient being as far from one another as on different continents. There is no need for one to fly to different places to attend conferences, as it is now technically possible to create the impression of many people being together at one time and in the same place. E-commerce and ebusiness are rapidly gaining momentum. The innovations that have entered our lives lately are effectively shortening distances and compressing time. The global information system has, moreover, removed transportation problems, such as loss of time and risk of accident, and made state borders more transparent. Globalization is radically affecting society's life and evolution (see Chapter 9 Globalization). However, at the same time, globalization gives rise to financial and economic instabilities which may cause dangerous crises. There are now more opportunities for people to be active in social life and state management by participating in polls and putting forth new proposals and ideas from home35. It is unclear at this point whether these developments will promote further democratization or if totalitarian trends will gain the upper hand. A scenario in which power is taken by a small group of top specialists, the information elite, cannot be ruled out as well. The development of a "digital economy," which implies vast application of information technologies and other global systems, will probably promote further globalization and the creation of a worldwide information society. However, these processes are hampered by the uneven tempos and levels of economic development and the development of information systems in different countries36. Another important feature of our computer era is the possibility of using information systems not only for data processing, but also for process management, from production to processing of raw materials, end-product fabrication, and marketing. Furthermore, automated computer-controlled systems can ensure better performance in terms of accuracy, cleanliness, and carefulness, which are required for new, hightechnology applications and processes37. The term "information society" means something more than just a breakthrough in information-processing techniques, but also a wide use of artificial intelligence; the role of people is increasingly shifted to research, creativity, and the quest for innovation. It is hard to predict what our future will be like after most of the controlling functions are given to machines. What will the role and place of human beings be in a system that is largely self-contained and independent of them? The following are the most significant stages in the development of information technology: the appearance of spoken language one hundred (or more) thousand years ago, the invention of writing 6 thousand-4 thousand years ago, the invention of printing in the 15th century, the invention of electronic data carriers and global communications in the 20th century, and the creation and rapid development of the worldwide information network, the Internet, in the 1970s-1980s38. It cannot be ruled out that the processing speed of commercially produced computers may increase several million-fold in the next few dozen years. From the start of the Common Era, the quantity of mankind's knowledge doubled in about 1700 years; then, it doubled again in only 200 years (from 1700 to 1900), and then again in only 50 years. About 100 years passed between the invention of the electric light and the personal computer. The volume of information stored in the Internet is increasing at a very high rate. It is estimated that it will take a bit more than 25 years to produce and assimilate the first 1 billion computers; another billion PCs will need only 5-8 years to be made and put to use. More than 1 billion people have access to the Internet today. Cheap, and portable devices that are a combination of a PC and communications device are now available. There are plans for converting 15 million English-language books into electronic form over the next 10 years, and a project of creation of an electronic European megalibrary is being implemented. There are billions of cell
Fewer than 5% of the hundreds of millions of documents issued by office workers in the United States every year are stored as a hard copy. The world intellectual technologies market is currently valued in excess of $1.5 trillion. 37 Norbert Wiener, the founder of cybernetics, predicted that the functioning of a future society will be provided by a central information system that will process information received from its primary sources (sensors) and transmit processed signals to segments of the system where they will trigger certain types of action. 38 The World Wide Web was developed in the 1970s-1990s. It originally emerged as a result of a plan to create a data storage and exchange system invulnerable to nuclear attack; later, it evolved into a common access computer network. The growing data complexes required new management systems that brought to life a number of highly effective search engines. The most popular search engines today are Google, Yandex, Yahoo, Rambler, and others.
35 36

Chapter 4

71

phones in use throughout the world, and about 1 million are added every day. The speed of accumulation of knowledge, which could be called an information explosion, can be illustrated by a curve similar to the population growth curve shown in Chap1. The time intervals between fundamental or qualitative changes or technological revolutions are becoming shorter. In concluding this section, I would like to present some figures on information capacity at different stages of civilizational development (according to David Robertson, United States): - An individual human brain contains 107 bits; - A community with developed spoken communication contains about 109 bits; - The Library of Alexandria, which contained hundreds of thousands of manuscripts, contained approximately 1011 bits; - The thousands of libraries, tens of thousands of books, newspapers, and magazines that exist are estimated at 1017 bits; - An information society with means of digital data storage and processing contains 1025 bits. Major Religions Religions and ideologies play important roles in the life of a society, its material and spiritual culture. The nature of things, the outside world, and man's place in it were the first perceptions to develop in the minds of the first primitive people. At some moment, primitive people began to believe that everything had a soul, including plants and animals, the rain and wind, and dreams and diseases and that these souls could be hostile or benevolent. People invented myths to explain the origin of the Sun and the Moon, natural cycles, and other phenomena. The inevitability of death was the primary urge to look for explanations that would render the situation less dark. After all, people have always loved to soothe themselves, especially when it comes to such fundamental problems as the finiteness of human life, the causes of troubles and failures, and ways of overcoming them. Besides, most people love to relieve their anxiety by confiding in others, discussing their problems or confessing their wrongdoings. Religious people need less effort to make decisions and set rules for their behavior, they don't have to rack their brains in search of absolute truths; religion may even create a feeling of emotional comfort. Therefore, people's weakness for religion (as well as for leaders or ideologies, as described herebelow) is quite natural39. Naturally, the high demand stimulated a supply, which came in the form of magicians, shamans, religious dogmas, priests, and rituals. This type of relationship between those suffering and those easing their pain developed to involve increasing numbers of people. If you deprive a believer of his religion, he or she will be immediately in a state of bewilderment and emptiness with noting to hope for and nowhere to go with his problems. A Secular Humanist Declaration of 1980 states that "The classical metaphysical teachings expressed the passionate urge of human beings to overcome death. The scientific theory of evolution gives man a more modest place in the world." "Religions gave people a simple explanation for the mystery of the origin of life and origin of man. Man what surrounds him were created by God. In truth, it remains unknown what (or who) God is. Some believe that God is a supernatural creature, some maintain that God is the creative Nature itself, and others perceive God simply as an object of worship, belief, and suchlike," Ivan Yakovlev said in 2006. Ancient myths and primitive religions were clan-oriented and were aimed at ethnic and family consolidation. In rituals, people asked the supreme powers for fertility, military victory, and prosperity. Even today, it is often said that religion provides food for the soul, unlike science or materialist philosophy. In countries ruled by despotic regimes, dictators were often recognized as gods, or at least as "ambassadors of gods." The most popular of the modern religions, Christianity, appeared in Palestine in the 1st century AD, originating among the oppressed strata of the population, such as slaves and craftsmen. Palestine was then part of the Roman Empire, and the new religion gained popularity by taking advantage of anti-Roman sentiments. Christianity rapidly found worshippers among the broad masses, and, beginning at a certain moment, it began to attract the upper classes and intelligentsia as well. Following a period of severe persecution, the new religion won the recognition of the rulers and the elite, and by the 4th century AD it became the Roman Empire's official religion. Christianity is a product of the ancient world's philosophy and culture, primarily Judaism, which appeared about 2000 years BC. It was Judaism that introduced monotheism, a code of morality, the idea of a messiah, nonvioAs Professor Akop Nazaretian wrote: "The global problems of today are centered on the question of the meaning of life. As things stand, mankind's experience of finding meanings in a non-religious picture of the world is relatively small. The question is whether it is possible to achieve a stable strategic meaning-finding in a non-religious picture of the world. If yes, will there be enough time for the human civilization to build up such a non-religious meaning of life before a global irreparable catastrophe occurs?" It is increasingly often expressed in the media that the idea capable of consolidating humanity is the idea of saving human civilization, while struggle between different religions only works to aggravate opposition between different groups of the earth's population."
39

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

72

lence, and many other principles accepted by Christianity. Judaism also contained the thesis that the Jews were a Chosen People. Christianity modified and rethought Judaic concepts, adapting them to the new epoch and realities of the Roman Empire and the numerous ethnicities and cultures it embraced. Christianity's universality and acceptability for many different peoples predetermined its future triumph: today, Christianity (in one or another form) is professed by about 2 billion people. The Church played a positive role during the dark period of the Middle Ages, when development in a large part of Europe had virtually come to a stop, while the Church preserved the heritage of ancient culture and the unity of European civilization. The rare chronicles of those times were kept mostly by monks. (The heritage of ancient civilization was also preserved in part in Arabic translations. People traveled through Europe to the Moorish Spain in search of knowledge, as well as to the remotest monasteries for rare valuable books). Gradually, Christianity spread into other lands: in the early 1st century, it came to the Mediterranean countries, and later to Ireland and Britain. In the 10th century, Russia became Christian (under influence from Byzantium). In the 12th century Christianity came to Scandinavia, and by the 13th century practically all of Europe had been Christianized. Even earlier, in the 8th-9th centuries, the Christian church supported the formation of the shortlived Carolingian empire by providing them with ideology, a legal base, and doctrines. Religion played the dominant role in the development of West European civilization over a certain period of time in the Middle Ages. Due to the contradictions between the Eastern and Western Christians, the religion split in two branches, Orthodoxy and Catholicism; later, in the 16th century, another branch of Christianity, Protestantism, appeared40. That marked the formal drawing of a line of demarcation between Western civilization and Byzantine (Slavic) civilization41. As things stand today, there are three main branches of Christianity, plus the Armenian Apostolic, Ethiopian, Syrian and a number of other churches. Each of these branches is different in some postulates and interpretations of the "divine truths"42. The other popular religion is Islam (with about 1.3 billion people worldwide). Islam was founded in the early 7th century AD by the Prophet of Arabia, Muhammad. Being familiar with Judaism and Christianity, he combined a number of ideas loaned from both these religions and included them all into the Holy Koran, which is believed by Muslims as having been sent by Allah. (Here it appropriate to recall that Judaism is, in fact, the parent religion to both Christianity and Islam). Unlike Christianity, Islam asserts that there is one and only one god, that this god is single: "There is no god but Allah and Muhammad is the Messenger of Allah." The Prophet Muhammad succeeded in uniting numerous Arab tribes through wars and preaching. The notion of "jihad" came into being at that time, that is, a holy war aimed to convert all people to Islam, and, therefore, the goal was set to make the entire world governed by Islam. There is, however, another understanding of jihad, an internal struggle for self-perfection with the goal of achieving a higher status of perception or being the best a person can be in any situations life offers. In Muslim countries, Islam usually requires the state to enforce Sharia Law in its fullness in all aspects of life. Sometimes religious dogmas come into conflict with economic development: for example, the religion forbids businessmen to charge interest on loans, which hampers free market relations.
In 2004, the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian Council of Muftis issued codes of conduct for businessmen. The following are the principles called for by the Russian Orthodox Church: wealth shall not be an aim in itself; there should be a culture of human relationships, truthfulness, loyalty to government and society, and care for working people; politics and the economy should be separate; and workers should not be exploited, but shall have the right to relaxation, spiritual life, and creativity. Islamic code of entrepreneurship asserts that usury; monopolies; charging excessive prices for goods; manufacture of products disapproved of by Sharia Law; and involvement in businesses related to alcohol, tobacco, or entertainment are forbidden.

Disagreements between the Western and Eastern Christian communities emerged after the ancient Roman Empire had split into two parts, the appearance of the Byzantine Empire to the East, and the refusal by Byzantine patriarchs to recognize the supremacy of the Pope of Rome over the Universal Church. In 1054, the Pope's delegation arrived in Constantinople, bringing the Pope's edict of anathema against the Patriarch of Byzantium. The delegation was given exactly the same reply, but regarding their sender. The Church split into a Latin branch and a GreekSlavonic branch aptly reflected both the political and cultural realities of that time. In 1529, a group of German grand dukes, being infuriated by the atrocities of the Roman clergy and the Inquisition, announced their dissociation from the Catholic Church. They protested the vote of the Congress of Grand Dukes of loyalty to the Catholic Church. Yet before that Martin Luther's 95 theses denying Catholic dogmas were proclaimed. The St. Bartholomew's Day massacre in Paris in 1572, when many thousands of Protestants were killed overnight, is an infamous day in the history of the conflict between Protestants and Catholics. The Protestants practiced simplified rituals and services and rejected the complicated Church hierarchy; some branches even attempted to perceive a religion "without God" i.e. as a teaching of ethics and morality only. The Protestants played a significant role in the ecumenical movement for uniting all churches. The split and discord between churches helped to promote various mystical and occult movements. 41 Poland found itself on the border. It was not accepted by Western civilization, and had complicated relations with Orthodox Russia. 42 In a poll on the question of religiosity, only 20% of respondents in Western Europe said they were religious, while in a similar poll conducted in the United States a positive answer was given by 60%. If we assume regular churchgoing to be the criterion of religiosity, then in many Catholic countries 60-80% of the population is religious, while in the Orthodox countries the corresponding figure is only 5-7%.
40

Chapter 4

73

Another popular religion is Buddhism (with over 400 million adherents). Buddhism appeared in India. Its founder, Buddha, lived in the 6th-5th century BC. A prince in the ruling dynasty, Buddha subjected himself to the severest austerities and created a new religious and philosophical school. Buddhism spread over Central Asia and then, in the 4th-6th centuries, it penetrated into China and Japan. (Later, a similar path was followed by Islam). According to Buddhism, everything is a common flow of elements (dharma) that form various combinations, one of which is man. Buddhist doctrine also involves the concept of reincarnation: the more virtues and fewer sins a person has, the greater the chance to be reincarnated as a superior being. Human life is a short moment of submergence in an abyss of suffering, which, however, can be mitigated by a righteous way of life, proper aspirations, and spiritual exercises. Death is not just natural, it is desirable. The ideal is nirvana (literally translatable as "disappearance"). It puts an end to all transformations and thus frees one from suffering (which is the essence of life). Nirvana can be reached only through a complete denial of worldly desires and passions. Buddhism advocates the equality of all people, passivity, and resignation, absolute nonviolence; recognizes the existence of many gods; and deifies real people. Buddhism has managed to peacefully coexist with and complement many popular beliefs and superstitions, importing their myths and gods; there are a number of Buddhist schools, and each has its own interpretation of the dogmas. Such flexibility contributed to the wide proliferation of Buddhism. Buddhism became the official religion in a number of Asian countries, but there were times when it was under attack. There are many things a number of existing religions have in common, such as belief in an afterlife, a supreme deity, the divine creation of the world, the coming of a messiah, etc43. Almost all religions (those described above and less popular ones) usually advocate such peaceful and humanistic principles as "thou shalt not kill," "thou shalt not steal," "thou shalt not lie," "thou shalt not commit adultery," etc. Nevertheless, the history of almost every religion has had periods in which murder (even mass murder) was declared necessary and justified on ideological religious grounds. The strength and activeness of religions have been always connected with state development, as religion is a powerful instrument with which rulers can control the masses. The threats of the "end of the world" and the "final judgment" have been well used to keep people obedient. According to monotheistic doctrines, one of the main goals of human life is preparation for eternal happiness (after death). Buddhism formulates the ultimate goal of human life in a rather unusual way to feel less, die, and never be reborn. There are dozens of different religions in the world today, and the idea has been often expressed to unite them into a common world religion44. However, at this point each religion recognizes only itself as true and is seeking to win as many followers as possible, sometimes even through the use of force. The role and place of religion have been different in different countries. Thus, "in contrast to France (and large parts of Europe), freedom and religion work hand in hand in America and are not contradictions" (Alexis de Tocqueville, 19th century). Even today debates similar to the notorious "monkey trials" on the issue of whether human beings have descended from animals or were created by God take place in the United States on occasion. Clerical or ideological (particularly in our recent past) hierarchies have existed in parallel with state power institutions. In ancient times the religious branch of power was represented by high priests and clergy, while in the 20th century in certain countries this role was taken up by officials in charge of ideology and propaganda. If we compare countries in terms of quality of life and scientific and technical progress, we cannot but conclude that among the countries where religion holds an honorable (though not ruling) position, the leaders are countries where the primary religion is Christianity, first of all Protestantism. A mindset, particularly that of religious people, is formed under the influence of the family and community. It is possible to implant almost any idea into the consciousness of a child, and sometimes even in that of an adult. As Alice Bailey wrote in Discipleship in the New Age (1954), "Religious differences are largely determined by birth: one born in Italy is likely to become a Catholic, one born Jewish will receive a Jewish education, one born in Asia may become a Muslim, a Buddhist or a member of one of the Hindu sects, and one born elsewhere may become a Protestant, etc." Playing a large role in the organization and development of societies, religions often served as the foundations of civilizations. Codes of laws and customs were derived or developed on the basis of religions dogmas and rituals. Religions determined patterns of behavior and attitudes, provided psychological protection from stress and were nearly the essence of existence for righteous believers. As regards commandments, they represented basic moral principles that had apparently been known to mankind even before religions appeared. Once religion is implanted into the consciousness of a child, it is continuously maintained through repeated prayers, rituals, etc., which are the main instruments of religious propaganda. Even the slightest loss of faith, criticism, and revision of what constitutes the "essence of divinity" or casting doubt on the religious dogmas referring to the scientifi43 "An interesting idea put forth by American Protestant theologians is that God has not completed creation yet, that creation is under way, i.e., evolution is continuing. In other words, God not only created this world, but also is looking at it and watching it. God is a participant in the process, and the amount of evil done by people on Earth influences the process as well." (Vyacheslav Stepin, member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.) 44 There are about 90 denominations active in Russia, though approximately half of the population consider themselves Orthodox Christians.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

74

cally proven facts would not be tolerated45. Colossal amounts of money have been spent on cult buildings, decorations of clergymen, and religious holidays, which indicates the grandeur and power of the dogmas. Add to this the cost of religious wars, and it becomes obvious that this "spending item" topped the list in many countries, particularly in ancient times. I want to reiterate that religions often promote aggression and that there were the crusades and other religiously motivated mass killings. Shortly before the epoch of the Renaissance, Christianity was at the apex of its fight against heresy. About 300,000 people suffered from the Inquisition in Western Europe. As it is easy to see, violent conflicts occur between peoples and nations with the same (or almost the same) religion: Catholics fight with Protestants, Shiites fight with Sunnites and Islamic fundamentalists fight against representatives of many other religions as well as their own. Ideologies In relatively recent stages of mankind's history atheism won out in some parts of the world, where the place of religion was taken by certain ideological doctrines that also gave leverage over mass consciousness. "Ideology is a fusion of morality, mentality, and the supremacy of civil duty over private interests It can be imposed on society, used as an instrument of brainwashing, and, therefore, work against the natural interests of society," Nikita Moiseev stated46. In addition to scientific discoveries and studies into the structure of the universe, the victory of atheism in a large part of the world was promoted by the appearance of certain political trends that opposed themselves to religious dogmas in an effort to come to power. There is a good explanation of what is common and what is different in science and religion: both try to explain the world, but one does so with the help of instruments, research, and mathematics, while the other does so with the help of ancient legends that are impossible to prove. Shortly before the industrial era, during the Age of Enlightenment, science and the arts became less dependent on religion. Religious dogmas ceased to be perceived as guidance for all kinds of activity47. In fact, mankind has changed the basics of its mentality only a few times over its entire history: In the beginning, there was deification of nature; then there came religions and the notion of God; and finally, in a number of countries, the supremacy of man, i.e., the ideology of humanism, became dominant. "Humanism is an ethical, scientific, and philosophical outlook that has changed the world. Its heritage traces back to the philosophers and poets of ancient Greece and Rome, Confucian China, and the Charvaka movement in classical India. Humanist artists, writers, scientists, and thinkers have been shaping the modern era for over half a millennium," The Humanist Manifesto 2000 states. There came a bright constellation of humanist philosophers, artists and other creative persons who asserted the Cult of Man: Leonardo da Vinci, Michelangelo, Erasmus of Rotterdam, Thomas More, and others. Their lives and works led to the appearance of new aspects of people's mental framework, such as individualism and the notion of personal freedom, which did not exist in agrarian, preindustrial society. We can only be surprised that it took mankind about 2,000 years to return to many of the values, such as democracy, that had originally appeared in ancient Athens. On the one hand, it is known that complex systems (such as, say, European civilization) do not always develop smoothly and evenly, while on the other hand, if we look not just at Europe but at the whole world, we will see that science, medicine, and the arts (however, not democracy) demonstrated dramatic and rapid progress in a number of countries of the East during a certain period within the Middle Ages. Democratic liberalism and socialism were the two dominant ideologies that spread through Europe in the 18th20th centuries. Both contained the idea of freeing people from the ages-long oppression and the elimination of class privileges and social and economic inequality. Liberalism put the main stress on the inviolability of privacy and private property; in other words, the interests of privacy are placed above civil duty. According to Immanuel Kant, personal freedom should be restricted only where it encroaches on the freedom of others. (Let us note here one other branch of ideology, conservatism, which essentially advocates minimal changes and preservation of the established order and way of life). It has been argued that the civil society created by liberals is the ultimate form of human self-organization and selfgovernment. It matures gradually with economic and political development and people's well-being, culture, and selfawareness. The necessary condition for such a society is economic independence based on private property, and its
45 Most religious dogmas include the following imperatives: the need to follow the authorities, devoted belief in the dogmas, regimentation of behavior and rituals, and antagonism toward the nonbeliever. 46 Here it is appropriate to note that ideologies that are based on falsification and are implanted with the purpose of preserving the power of a ruling clique eventually lead to degradation of both the ruling elite and the masses. 47 An important factor in the dispute between materialism and religion is the fact that science still does not have a clear understanding of the origin of life, the origin of the universe, and many other questions. When they stumble onto irresolvable contradictions, some researchers (even quite famous ones) again find consolation in recalling the Creator and Higher Powers.

Chapter 4

75

political foundation is a government based on the supremacy of the law, which guarantees individual rights and freedoms. The basic characteristic features of a modern-day democratic society also include regular elections with a universal right to vote by secret ballot and the presence of three independent branches of government legislative, executive, and judicial plus a fourth, a free press48. A 20th-century distinguished liberal politician, the 32nd president of the United States, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, proclaimed that there are "four essential human freedoms: freedom of speech and expression freedom of every person to worship God in his own way ... freedom from want ... and freedom from fear." The absence of imperative commandments led to a higher role for culture, morality, and selfimposed restrictions49. Thus, the life of an individual should be determined by his or her own interests and he or she should be fully responsible for everything he or she does. It is often said that it was combination of liberalism with Protestantism that played the decisive role in the success of capitalism. According to Protestant ethics, hard work, success, and wealth are pleasing to God and people should be active, be masters of their own fate and influence it: "pray and work" as opposed to the Orthodox "pray and repent." Protestantism asserts that it is shameful to be poor, because as long as you are the owner of the products of your labor, then your poverty cannot be explained by anything but your laziness. Nevertheless, some achieve much, while others fail; people have different abilities and different fates. The result is a division of society into those who are well off and those who have a lesser share of wealth. However, one of democracy's declared functions is to eliminate social disproportions and tensions. The government should ensure that its least fortunate citizens, such as the unemployed, disabled, and infirm and families with many children, are provided with a dignified quality of life. "Democracy is, in fact, an instrument, a useful tool for the protection and maintenance of social peace and personal freedom. In itself, it is neither flawless nor absolutely reliable," Friedrich August von Hayek wrote. According to Sergey Kapitsa, "It took the West several centuries to learn how to use democracy, and it has not been very long since they had learnt." The obvious flaw of democracy is the freedom it gives to the expression of ignorant and false statements, to propagation of myths, etc., that is, when freedom of speech turns into all-permissiveness. Voices are heard about the need to improve democracy by imposing restraints on freedom of speech, specifically where it is misused to disseminate misinformation or foment hatred, or banning pornography and unscrupulous advertising. Informational "noise" that burdens and distracts consciousness is becoming a problem. Therefore, today we are witnessing a tendency toward revision of democratic principles; society has to accept the necessity of some control over its individuals, both their activities and desires (this trend is called "trading freedom for security"). Egoism and an insatiable thirst for personal enrichment may lead to serious problems. Although the hunger for profit had stimulated the rapid growth of technology and labor productivity, at the same time it led to the division of societies (and countries) into rich and poor. The division has in many cases been excessive and dangerous. Socialism also declares the human person to be a supreme value (at least theoretically), but is very averse to private property. Socialism puts civil duty above individual interests and opposes collectivism to individualism: the "people's good" trumps the laws that protect individual rights. Egalitarian ideas like a "bright future will come only after the means of production are socialized" are popular in socialist societies; in the phase of expropriation, socialist slogans were even more explicit, for example, "rob the robbers" and the like. Socialism gave birth to many popular hopes as well as struggle. It is enough to recall "utopian socialism," "barracks socialism," "socialism with a human face," "developed socialism," etc. As far as morality is concerned, it is appropriate to recall Vladimir Lenin's statement that "there is no morality in politics; there is only expedience." Other principles were practiced, including ones that justified violence and terror by the rulers against their own people. Socialism led to regimes with varying degree of authoritarianism in different countries. Without contradicting the above, it is also true that the socialism that was built in the Soviet Union influenced the development of many countries: it stimulated and supported anticolonial movements, and, in a number of capitalist countries, it helped the working class and other deprived segments of the population to win more social protection50. "The October Revolution and the very fact of the Soviet Union's existence put the ruling classes in the capitalist countries before a dilemma: either there would be a social explosion, or there would be an evolution toward a more democratic regime and partial redistribution of wealth in favor of the working class," as Lev Voznesensky observed in For the Truth's Sake (2004).
48 The strength of the democratic countries "is rooted in the incredibly branched structure of their civil institutions and the universal habit of watching the government and seeing to it that the taxpayers' money is used to finance land developments, everyday life improvements, and the minimum required protection from potential invaders." (Alexander Arkhangelsky, journalist). 49 The Reformation marked the end of the Catholic Church's absolute authority in Europe. For the first time, it occurred to people that there shall not be any authority as far as knowledge acquisition is concerned, be it the King or the Pope. According to the liberal doctrine, people have the right to have any views they find appropriate. 50 The West understood that the problem was rooted not so much in the existence of the Soviet Union as it was in the need to provide a certain degree of social protection to the people. The issue received certain attention in the West too, and certain countries, particularly Sweden, have succeeded in building a common well-being.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

76

Modern capitalism does not require governments to give unrestricted freedom to the market. In the world's leading countries, governments provide a legal basis for economic relations, their regulation by means of governmental investments and credits, promote fundamental sciences and public health care, and ensure the functioning of law enforcement agencies, courts, vital infrastructures (environmental protection, roads, transport, etc.), and safety systems. In some cases, governments decide to nationalize certain branches of the economy and place them under centralized planning. The government assumes the burden of supporting the army and a large part of the military industry as long as they are necessary. The combination of government regulation and a free market has proven to be the optimal model for development, which helped the world's leading countries to achieve stability and strength. However, in the early stages of its development, capitalism presented a rather grim picture. Yegor Gaidar observed in his Anomalies of Economic Growth that "Marx mistook for a long-term and universal trend what was only a childhood disease of capitalism, albeit a quite dangerous disease fraught with serious complications." The degree of government regulation of economy are different in different countries and epochs and vary depending on the economic situation. The present world crisis is most likely to result in a number of radical changes ranging from the imposition of tougher government controls to more active involvement of international and supranational structures and creation of other international financial structures (see Chapter 9).

That was a good lesson to teach mankind how social and economic relations should not be built. It is sufficient to recall the numerous victims of the socialist regimes and the considerable gap in the quality of life between the socialist countries and the leading liberal states51. The capitalist system was deeply influenced by the deep crisis of the 1920s and massive unemployment. This was when unemployment benefits, pension systems, and educational and health care guarantees were established. The first half of the 20th century is sometimes called an epoch of capitalism's transformation, which produced a new form of capitalism, a "social capitalism." The best-developed capitalist countries assimilated certain ideas and principles of socialism. Such "scourges of capitalism" as the long working day (12-14 hours), meager wages, penury, and hard labor for women and children were left in the past. The government began to intervene in the economy to the extent necessary for promoting stability and prosperity52. These principles were included into the Franklin D. Roosevelt's "New Deal," the theoretical basis of which was provided by the works of the British economist John Maynard Keynes and others.

The Evolution of Culture As noted above, the material and spiritual aspects of life are mutually interconnected; the former is the combination of forces and relations of production, while the latter include the arts, literature, morality, ethics, mindset, and customs. Culture appeared when our ancestors ceased being animals and started being social creatures; morality and ethics developed then as factors contributing to the stability and viability of a primitive community. Culture begins from prohibitions, imposed restrictions on the instincts, desires, and the unconscious53; in other words, culture begins with a rational attitude toward surrounding objects and phenomena54. In addition to the restraints imposed by environmental conditions, social restraints appeared with the growth of the human population. Each religion or ideology imposed its own set of rules intended to preserve the existing order and power hierarchy. The commandments, doctrines, and rituals were based either on the idea of a supreme deity or the supremacy of humanism, equal rights, and individual freedoms. It often was the case that a country's population was split into classes or castes, each characterized by a certain cultural level and lifestyle as well as occupation, level of economic comfort, power, and, sometimes, even territory. Changes in ideology, culture, and styles of life occurred either with gradual development toward a higher level of civilization or as a result of revolutions or other cataclysms.

"If the aim of art is catharsis, purging, and enrichment of human consciousness to raise it above the animal instincts, the product of such art is genuine culture based on the supremacy of such values as mercy, love, a good home, and the victory of good over evil. If, on the contrary, the aim is to achieve a narcotic effect and appeals are made to animal instinct, the result is anticatharsis, pollution, and darkening of the human soul; this is an anticulture based on diametrically opposite values, such as the cult of violence, lust, the mentality of a pack of beasts, malice, and the triumph of evil," Igor Bestuzhev-Lada wrote in Russia and the World: 2006-2015, 2005.
51

"For Europe, Marxism was kind of a vaccination after a little fever, it developed toward more socially oriented regimes, while Russia and China thrashed in convulsions and coughed up blood for a long time." (Yuri Bogomolov, Izvestia, January 2005). 52 Having understood possible catastrophic consequences the impoverishment of the masses might have, the Western world abandoned the principle of hunting for profit at any cost and gave hired employees the opportunity to work and earn money. In the times of crises, the government's role drastically increases; using its powers and the means at its disposal, the government works to minimize losses and get out of the crisis. 53 "Culture is the rape of the instincts by the brain" (Maxim Gorky). 54 "Culture is the determining condition for realization of the individual's and society's creative potential, a form of the nation's assertion of identity, and a basis for the nation's spiritual health" (from the "Declaration of the Rights of Culture" developed by Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Dmitry Likhachev).

Chapter 4

77

Now, the most critical problem humanity is facing is the too slow progress of morality, tolerance and consciousness compared with the progress in science and technology which translates into the development of increasingly sophisticated means of destruction. However paradoxical it may seem, there is a tendency of growing ignorance which affects a considerable part of the global populace. An indirect indication of the problematic situation with human conscientiousness is, as Professor Sergei Kapitsa puts it, "the splash of popularity of astrology, palmistry, denial of Darwinism and the like diversions. Just switch your TV set on and you will see various abominable snowmen, shamans, clairvoyants, astrologers and other quacks aggressively claiming our time and attention." Religion, too, holds rather strong positions; as was noted here, believers constitute approximately one-half of the world population.

In ancient times, some countries and groups of people created magnificent cultural products in order to glorify and immortalize themselves. The Pyramid of Cheops is more than 4500 years old, and it consists of blocks weighting millions of tons that have been assembled with wondrous precision. The weight of the Pyramid of Cheops is thirty times that of the highest building in New York. (There is a hieroglyphic inscription cut in stone on the pyramid that translates as "People will perish from the inability to use the powers of nature and ignorance of the true world"; this phrase is attributed to Ancient Egyptian scholar Imhotep). The Acropolis, the Coliseum, and a number of other edifices in Asia and America that are many thousands of years old indicate the high level of technology and equally high level of ambitions of the rulers of those far-away times55. A significant role in the evolution of culture was played by the development of the sciences, which served people's everyday needs mathematics, astronomy, physics, chemistry, etc. Achievements in the field of medicine drastically improved quality of and length of life. Alexander the Great's establishment of a center of science and culture in Alexandria in the 4th century BC was a notable event in the history of culture and science. The creation of such a gigantic library, almost a scientific center, was something far ahead of its time. Using a heliocentric model of planetary motion, the scholars who worked in the library calculated the sizes of the Earth, the Sun, and the Moon, and, in a number of other fields of science, they surpassed their time by many hundreds of years56. After a few centuries, the library was destroyed by fire in a war, and the scientific center ceased to exist. Restoration work is currently under way there. Those far-away epochs brought to our day such famous names as Pythagoras (6th century BC), Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, and others57. The introduction of the Gregorian Calendar, mapping of time zones, introduction of international law, connection of almost all sites on the planet with airlines and other rapid means of transportation, effective means of communication and, today, the World Wide Web were important steps toward creating a unified worldwide system (diplomatic, economic, and, later, political and social).

The largest contradictions in the modern world are cultural ones, i.e., between the ways of life and traditions of different countries. "The permanently accelerating unification processes, shortening of distances, increasing role of technology, and gradual achievement of political independence by all peoples are accompanied by alarm and confusion torturing both great civilizations (the West and the East Evgeny Abramyan), which, under the threat of a world crisis, should give birth to a unified civilization of the future." (Quoted from UNESCO documents.) In all cultures, the ruling elites used the arts as an instrument to support and extol the existing order and system. Various effects of culture, particularly modern and highly effective ones, such as radio, television, movies, the press and the Internet are capable of holding society within a certain paradigm as long as the situation in the country remains stable and until an attempt is made to change the existing order of things.

As was noted above, in traditional societies (before the Industrial Revolution), human activities changed very slowly. Nature was perceived as a kind of living organism of which mankind was only a small part. Therefore, people were to live in harmony with the natural rhythms, adapt to them, and not to cherish any ambitions to transforming or rule the world. There were other systems as well, such the Indian code of nonviolence and the Chinese Wu Wei (translated as "doing without doing," which meant noninterference, allowing events to develop as they will). Many of the ancient ideological and psychological principles have been preserved to our day among

One who visits ancient ruins or studies manuscripts from that time will inevitably come to think that ancient civilizations were just one step away from many of the discoveries that led to the technological breakthroughs of the modern period. The development of our civilization has not been a smooth and uniform process, but a sequence of leaps, setbacks, and retreats. It is enough to recollect that many of the ideas expressed by Leonardo da Vinci became actual only 500 years later. Why? Because society was then not prepared to take advantage of these opportunities. Similarly, today we may not be implementing, and perhaps even not noticing, something very important. Should we perhaps change the priorities and directions of our efforts away from war and weapon-making in favor of looking for ways to resolve the most acute and critical problems facing our civilization? 56 The roots of the sciences lie in ancient Babylon and Greece, in the studies of celestial mechanics and astronomy. Attempts at comprehending observed regularities in the heavens stimulated the development of fairly complicated (for the time) mathematical computations. The following quote from Stanislaw Lem refers to the evolution of the sciences: "Closer to our day, experimental physics appeared and gave a push to awaken chemistry from its alchemical dreams. Biology was the last among the natural sciences to leave the haze of obscurantism, breaking free only at the turn of our century." 57 According to the United States statistical data, there were 5.5 million research scientists in the world as of the end of 2004 and each researcher cost about $150,000 per year. Approximately 70% of them worked in the industrially developed countries. There were over 2 million researchers in Asia, 1.8 million in Europe, nearly 1.5 million in North America, 140,000 in South American and less than 60,000 in Africa. 700,000 researchers worked in the former Soviet Union where the amount of funding per one researcher per year was less than 20% of the world's average.
55

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

78

The international movement organized by famous Russian artist Nikolay Roerich in the first half of the 20th century was aimed at promoting culture and protecting its distinguished works. "The machine, technocratic, civilization of the 20th century shows signs of losing the need for philosophy or real arts," Roerich wrote. "It substitutes culture for the industry of entertainment forming a basis for mass culture, pandering to base instincts and reflexes of the human body and hampering human evolution. Humanity has come to a dead-end having flooded the planet with machines, making people subjugated to machines and inflicting irreparable damage on the nature of the Earth."

those Eastern peoples who have not achieved the level of industrial society and observe their old traditions. The dynamism of modern, industrial civilization contrasts with the conservatism of traditional societies58. The modern system of life values is based on the concept of man as a creator who is destined to rule the world and nature and transform them as he wills. It is science that generates innovative technologies that has become the producing and determining power in the modern world. Indicative of this is the appearance of such new areas of art as postmodernism, where the movement of ideas replaces ideals or images. In the new paradigm, happiness is often substituted for success, morality for calculation, love for sex, human factor for human being59, personal communication for virtual reality, with the addition of the cult of violence making the picture complete60. Virtual love is now taken for serious, and as even preferable, as virtual lovers are ready to fulfill all the fantasies of their partners. Already on the market today, there are special "intimacy aids" combined and synchronized with personal computers. Technocratic perceptions and attitudes and the technologization of life in general are winning an increasingly broad following. Vitaly Tretyakov, Dean of the Moscow State University's Higher School of Television, said: "Having created nothing to match the classic works of art, postmodernism started transforming them, which, in fact, meant destruction and fouling."

It is becoming clear that the path out of the ripening global crisis lies primarily through transforming the culture of human relations and morality. "A planetary civilization," as Akop Nazaretian said, "will be able to avoid self-annihilation at the next phase of its evolution only if people succeed in perfecting the system of basic values, norms, and mechanisms of self-organization as per the lessons taught by history." One of the main tasks for mankind to perform today is the development and implementation of a world culture a system of human relations in which there will be no room for violence, war, or terror. This should be a system based on the supremacy of high levels of morality and tolerance and respect for and understanding of other people's views and attitudes, unless they are misanthropic, aggressive, fascist, or distort the true picture of life. According to the German philosopher Jurgen Habermas, if the people of the 19th and 20th centuries were confrontational beings, the people of the 21st will need to become negotiating ones. "Society will change if we start to turn the television set off every time we see the propaganda of lechery, crime, and hatred If we start demanding that the government not offer any privileges to morally questionable publications, stores, theaters, or television channels We decisively reject immoral behavior and destructive culture61 , the late Patriarch Alexii II had stressed. Here it is appropriate to ask what the cultural space of future mankind will be. Will it be the European model of cultural coexistence, which has spread over most of the world today, or will it be, at least to a certain extent, a form of cultural pluralism?

The prominent Russian philosopher, President of the Russian Philosophical Society, and full member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vyacheslav Stepin said regarding this issue that "industrial civilization has led mankind to global crises, and now we are almost on the verge of self-destruction. At the same time, it is obvious that we cannot revert to the traditional way of development, as it could provide only a very small portion of the Earth's population with desperately needed products. During the Renaissance, when the beginning of industrial civilization was just around the corner, the entire population of the Earth was 500 million, while now, with 6.5 billion people living on the planet, we cannot afford to be without modern technology if we wish to provide even a subsistence minimum to all. In addition, we should not forget that, in traditional cultures, a caring attitude toward nature was often accompanied by neglect of the interests and needs of the people. "What is needed is a synthesis: not a Western or Eastern system of values, but a third choice, something that would synthesize the achievements of modern industrial culture and certain ideas of the traditional cultures that are acquiring a new meaning today It is necessary to combine modern scientific and technological development with alternative, seemingly alien to Western values, ideas from the Eastern cultures A dialog of cultures is a necessary condition for developing a new system of values that will change the consumer-based present one

58 It should be noted that the principal importance of morality, behavior, consciousness and mindset has been stressed in a number of Eastern philosophies. This conforms with the modern-day understanding of the problems facing mankind and its future (see Chapter 18 and other sections of this book). 59 I'm tired of the 20th century/With its rivers of blood/I don't need human rights any more/Because I'm not a human being any more." (Vladimir Sokolov) 60 It is also said that postmodernism is, in effect, a ban on the functions the art used to perform, leaving nothing but destruction, including destruction of the art itself, negation of its value. 61 A graphic example that shows the role of morality and ethics in the fate of civilizations is the "hedonistic decline" of the Roman Empire.

Chapter 4

79

"After their victory in the Cold War, the responsibility of the Western countries for the destiny of human civilization has dramatically increased. It will be a good thing if this victory does not turn into a defeat for humanity." (Excerpts from a report given by Vyacheslav Stepin to the 4th Russian Philosophical Congress in May 2005.) Elsewhere, Vyacheslav Stepin writes that "modern science is developing in a very special epoch, one in which the significance of science is determined by its involvement in the problem of selecting a survival strategy and looking for new ways to develop human civilization. Technogenic civilization has come close to a point of bifurcation after which it may turn into a qualitatively new state. The very existence of humanity depends on which direction the system will take" (Teoreticheskoye Znaniye (Theoretical Knowledge), 2000).

Ethnicities and Problems of Migration The present situation, in which we have numerous ethnicities and languages in the world, resulted from the original desire of communities to live separate lives. The genetic code of all people living on the planet (regardless of their skin color and other phenotypal features) are 99.9% identical; in other words, there is very little difference between the races and ethnicities, at least from the viewpoint of genetics. However, each tribe had its own beliefs and cults, as well as a language and a system of denotation for natural phenomena. It often happened that groups of people living on neighboring territories spoke different languages, used different words for similar notions, and could hardly understand each other. For example, in 19th-century Australia, there were 300,000 aborigines who spoke 500 different languages, i.e., there was a different language for every 600 people. There is a similar situation today in Africa to the south of the Sahara: there is a separate language for each ethnic group numbering 600-700 people. Research groups traveling through the Amazon rainforests usually hire several interpreters who take turns as the group passes through lands populated by different tribes. Different dialects are found even in modern Europe among people who belong to one and the same ethnicity. Another phenomenon is the appearance of different types of slang in certain groups of the population which are not necessarily isolated (for example, teenagers, criminal gangs, the Internet community) that are hard to understand by other people. This is a quality of people to devise and introduce new words and expressions, to transform the language. People have demonstrated equal inventiveness in developing various systems of writing for recording speeches and messages, some of which are impossible to decipher. With the proliferation of homo sapiens over the planet, the number of languages reached 6,000 (8,0009,000, according to other sources), while the number of ethnicities is 1,000 (2,000-3,000, according to other sources). The variance is explained by different definitions of the terms "language" and "ethnicity." Ethnicities and languages are born, go through different phases of development, and then may disappear: About ten languages disappear every year. It is predicted that about 3 billion people will be able to communicate in the English language in the next 8-10 years62. It is quite probable that in the not-so-distant future most translations will be performed by computers63, which will make the problem of adopting an international language much less pertinent. Genetic studies indicate that all people originated from a common ancestor a small group of people who lived in Africa (almost like in the Biblical legend according to which all people originated from Adam and Eve; according to approximate assessments, this group of people lived 150,000200,000 years ago). Trade, exchange of information, and wars contributed to the proliferation of accumulated knowledge and intermixing of tribes, ethnicities, and nations. Genetic differences between ethnicities, including different colors of skin, appeared as a result of mutations during adaptation of people to different climatic conditions within their chosen habitats. Originally, ethnicity was understood as belonging to a circle of people related to each other by blood, but later it tended to become a sociocultural attribute. Mutual interests, such as professional, social, political, etc., ones, tended to acquire a increasing role in consolidating people into stable communities. "In the 20th century, universal human values came to trump ethnicity and ethnic culture," as Professor Nikolai Timofeev-Ressovsky said. Each presently living person features a combination of genes inherited from different ethnicities; therefore, the notion of "nationality" is rather provisional. Although geographic and historical roots still remain important, the fact is that not many nationalities manage to exist in a "pure form" for many centuries. National and differences and differences in way of life will ease in the future under the influence of the international media, the Internet, and international tourism. "In the future, the world will be populated by much more intelligent people who will acknowledge their unity regardless of their lineage or color of skin," according to the Fourteenth Dalai Lama. Migration of people and exchange of experience in the Old World in the ancient times occurred more rapidly than the development of new instruments, methods of agriculture, etc., which is why we observe relatively synThe status of "international language" belonged at different times to different languages, including Greek, Latin, and French. It is possible that oral interpreting will be automated as well. There is, after all, a tendency for pocket personal computers to become smaller in size and higher in quality. Leading PDA manufacturers argue that high quality electronic interpreters will appear in the next 5-10 years. The most important factor for the success of machine translation is for computer to properly "understand" the essence of speech.
62 63

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

80

chronous development of independent civilizations located quite far away from each other64. However, before the appearance of high-speed means of transportation, trades routes many thousands of kilometers long were laid and used. Some examples of massive migration include the European colonization of the Americas, Australia and New Zealand; transportation of slaves from Africa (12-20 million were taken to the New World alone); and, in the more distant past (7,000 to 10,000 years ago), the settlement of Northern Europe (Scandinavia) after the recession of glaciers and the Indo-European migrations (see above). Such migrations resulted in intermixing of cultures and appearances of new ethnicities. The former Soviet Union made a major contribution to the process of ethnic intermixing: according to the available statistics, there were 25 million mixed marriages in the Soviet Union. A graphic example is the population of modern Brazil, a mixture of aboriginal peoples, Europeans, and Africans. Millions of people are repatriating to their historical motherland in Israel. Despite their common roots, Jewish diasporas in different countries have assimilated some traits of the peoples with which they have been living. Particularly conspicuous are the Russian mindset of the Russian Jews and the black skin color of the African Jews. Waves of refugee migration occur repeatedly: today, for instance, millions are leaving Iraq, just as earlier people fled from Sudan and other hot spots. Migration of people around the globe is stimulated by the poor quality of life in a large number of countries. It is interesting to note that about 60 million people left Europe from 1820 to 1940 (mostly to the New World), while as opposite process has been taking place since the second half of the 20th century, the driving force behind it being the high quality of life in many European countries. With their liberal laws and the need for an untrained labor force, it is hard for the developed countries to hold back the flow of hundreds of millions of hungry and jobless people from the backward countries. The abundant information about the beautiful life in the developed countries and the well-established arteries of transportation (in addition the criminal middleman business) fuel both legal and illegal immigration. In addition to the search for a better life, motivations for emigration include persecution, threats, and danger. In addition, highly qualified specialists and talented young people are encouraged to immigrate to the developed countries. Having moved into Europe in large numbers, natives of the East are increasingly influencing its life and its collective mindset. Stable diasporas of the natives of Asia and Africa have formed. Analysts say that the growing migration from the East may affect European identity, including by seasoning it with an Islamic flavor. It is not uncommon today to see Sharia law enforced in Muslim areas, including polygamy, discrimination of children, on the basis of gender, etc. The ban on wearing the hijab at schools in France caused lengthy and heated debates. The massive unrest on the part of immigrants and young people in France in 2005 and 2006 was a major problem for the authorities. The native population in the wealthy countries is rapidly shrinking, and in the not so distant future, many of them may face a problem similar to the one currently plaguing certain parts of the former Yugoslavia, where Albanians, who have dramatically gained in number over the last several decades, have been violently in conflict with their neighbors. There have been several periods of intense immigration in the history of the United States. Over the decade before World War One, the rate of immigration in the United States was 1 million people a year, and in the 1980s it was 500,000 people a year; in the 1960s, after Fidel Castro came to power, about 500,000 Cubans fled to the United States. Mexicans have provided a permanent supply of immigrants to the United States. In addition to those who immigrated legally, there are 8 million-10 million illegal immigrants living in the United States today. Canada, Australia, and the countries of Latin American are also populated by immigrants. Also, a rather peculiar type of migration is currently taking place from Russia to Great Britain a migration of well-off people. They seem to be looking for greater stability and life culture. The driving force behind the 20th-century waves of emigration from Russia was the desire to escape from various kinds of persecution and secure a higher quality of life. At the moment, the Russian Federation is interested in immigration. In order to maintain its population stable Russia will need to accept tens of millions of immigrants over the next 50 years; according to different estimates, Russia will need 1-1.5 million immigrants a year. Like in Western Europe, the issue of adaptation of the new citizens and their descendants will arise. According to different estimates, there are about 10 million guest workers in Russia today. As regards the Muslim issue, here it is appropriate to recall that Russians have managed to live in harmony and symbiosis with Islam for more than seven hundred years (see Chapter 5). Massive inflows of people into large cities have taken place recently mostly in the developed countries, the driving force behind this being industrialization. It is predicted that the proportion of urban residents may reach 80% of the global population in the future. (In the author's opinion, however, the process of migration into cities may be strongly decelerated due to the high vulnerability of metropolises to weapons of mass destruction).
In an effort to resolve the migration-driven intercultural contradictions in the modern world, liberal governments are trying to employ various strategies of toleration. The European Union, for example, has adopted a multicultural doctrine,
However, certain tribes that are completely isolated from the rest of the world still live in the Neolithic age.

64

Chapter 4

81

i.e., one that advocates pluralism and cooperation between cultures. This approach presupposes gradual integration of new citizens into the receiving country's society and culture. The main problem here is the difficulty of adaptation to those elements of the receiving country's culture that oppose the immigrant's native culture; this requires patience and takes time. Thus, for natives of the East coming to live in a liberal country of the West, it is particularly hard to break free from the dogmas that were implanted in their consciousness from early childhood, as well as become accustomed to various manifestations of Western culture (all the more so given that there are many "sinful" ones). These problems are further aggravated by the huge social and income gap separating the immigrants from the natives. Conversely, it is equally hard for natives of Europe to become accustomed to Eastern immigrants and their habits. The United States has successfully implemented a melting pot policy, i.e., a unification of the cultures and lifestyles of all ethnicities. After a while, immigrants "lost" their nationalities and became just Americans. The presence of Chinese, Cuban, Russian, and other national enclaves is a minor problem for the unified Pan-American mindset. A similar situation existed in the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, where a unified mindset (of course, with some local variations) existed for many hundreds of years. The United States is about to face a new problem: having barely overcome racial discrimination, the Americans are now increasingly with the growth of Spanish-speakers in the population; the Spanish language and culture may become dominant by the middle of this century.

Recent history has examples of forced migration, such as the deportations in the Soviet Union. Members of Caucasian and some other ethnic groups, a total of about 3 million people, were forcefully relocated in the early 1940s. There was also a massive migration of villagers in the late 1920s and early 1930s, when approximately 1 million of so-called "kulaks" (rich peasants) were expropriated. During World War Two, the Nazis moved millions of people from the occupied territories and used them as a labor force. Over the same period of time, Japan imported about 500,000 Koreans for hard labor. After the end of World War Two, millions of ethnic Germans were relocated from Eastern Europe to Germany. At the end of the 20th century, hundreds of thousands of people fled from the former Yugoslavia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Burundi, and a number of other countries. These are only the most recent examples. Demographics

One-and-a-half million years ago, the population of homo sapiens was approximately 100,000, which was roughly equal to the numbers of other animals with similar weight, such as apes, bears, wolves, etc. Having won out in competition against the other animals, our ancestors started to reproduce so quickly that an almost explosive growth of human population occurred (to date, the numerical strength of the human race has increased by a factor of 105)65. Even wars and epidemics could not stop the triumphant propagation of homo sapiens. Contributing to human population growth has been an increase in life expectancy and reduction of the infant mortality rate. The effect of birth-rate control measures taken in a number of countries has been less than was expected; at best, such measures only helped to reduce the rate of population growth by 10-20%66. Different predictions have been made for the world's future population dynamics, but the majority opinion is that it will stabilize at a level of 9-10 billion by the end of the 21st century. Professor Sergey Kapitsa calls this the "demographic transition." UN experts forecast a slower growth rate, as well as famine, epidemics, and other disasters and political instability. The rate of population growth on the planet reached a peak value of 85 million a year in the 1960s; at this moment, the figure is about 70 million per year. Although the rate of world population growth is tending to decrease, most experts believe that it will not come to a stop any sooner than when the 10billion mark is reached. The world population's overall growth is mostly thanks to the developing countries. In 1900, the inhabitants of Europe and the English-speaking countries accounted for 30% of the global population; in 2000, the corresponding figure was 18%, and by 2050, it is predicted to plummet further, down to 10%. Naturally, the poor and hungry majority will be seeking to organize and oppose the rich minority. In the mid-20th century, the Green Revolution (a dramatic increase in crop yields) saved billions from starvation. Now, a "second Green Revolution" is on the horizon, thanks to the development of generically modified products (although there are concerns about the potential dangers of consuming such products). In all likelihood, it is possible to produce enough food for the growing population of the planet; the current food shortages and hunger in a number of regions result mostly from poor management and organization and insufficient assistance from the world's leading countries. "The main problem today is not that of increasing the world pro65 Population density dynamics is interesting as well. In the ancient times of hunters and gatherers the density of human population was about 0.2 per square kilometer; in the epoch of early grain-growers, it was about 10 people per square kilometer; and today it is 200 people per square kilometer in areas of intensive agriculture and about 2,000 per square kilometer and even higher in the modern megapolises. 66 "Voluntary family planning is the only acceptable approach for the countries experiencing a demographic explosion. Moreover, it involves no risk of social upheaval. It is not surprising at all that the excessively harsh birth control policy pursued by the government of Indira Gandhi led in 1977 to an outbreak of social discontent and eventually forced Gandhi to resign. At the same time, a similar policy has so far proven itself well in countries with a different mindset and traditions, such as Indonesia and China," quoted from Viktor Danilov-Danilyan, Kim Losev, Igor Reif, In Front of the Civilization's Main Challenge.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

82

Igor Bestuzhev-Lada's opinion on this matter is that "the population of Europe and the United States is doomed to extinction, and a similar future awaits Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. People from the Third World will share the same fate, but later, after several generations have changed. Twenty percent of all married couples in the developed world are childless, and most of the remaining 80% have only one child A solution to the problem may lie in establishing special colleges to train future mothers. Society may need to free millions of men and women from the necessity of working so that they can concentrate on bringing up children. These fathers and mothers will need a good social status, paid vacation, free medical care, a full stipend, respect, and housing, preferably a cottage with a plot of land." These concerns are absolutely justifiable; however, in my opinion, the threats that endanger the very existence of the human race and are the subject of this book may be a reality much earlier. If mankind succeeds in averting these threats, the issue of the birth rate might come to the foreground. In this case, the ideas and recommendations of Igor BestuzhevLada will become appropriate and useful. In addition to the demographic problems described above, the employment issue cannot be ignored. It is impossible to provide jobs to everybody. Enhanced labor efficiency and extensive use of machines lead to increased qualification requirements and growth of the proportion of unneeded people. Already today, the proportion of unemployed has reached two-thirds among the young in many Third World countries69. Intellectual work is mostly per-

duction of food, but making it available to the 800 million of those who are starving," as Betty Watson said at the 2002 BioIreland Conference in Dublin, Ireland. It is not a problem of food, but of the environmental impact produced by many billions of people with an increasing level of consumption, that is likely to become the main problem associated with overpopulation in the future. At present, the "golden billion" is primarily responsible for the environmental load, including pollution with toxic substances and heat emission. Recently, it was discovered that the higher the quality of life, the lower the birth rate, i.e., that by improving standards of living, it is possible to control population size. After achieving a modern level of development, many countries experienced dramatic declines in their birth rates and population dynamics became negative. Examples include Sweden, Germany and some other Western European countries. (Russia's population is declining as well; however, this is mostly because of the crises and uncertainty about the future.) In some of the developed countries of Europe, the birth rate among the native population fell down 1.2-1.3 per woman, while 2.2-2.3 is required for reproduction of the current population. ("It is paradoxical: those who are better adapted and who have managed to create better living conditions for themselves live longer lives, but those who are poor and live shorter lives are born in larger numbers and account for the overall growth of the world population," quoted from Yegor Gaidar67. Decline in the birth rate in the developed countries is caused by women's greater involvement in work, high pensions, and other factors68. (Nevertheless, the US population is growing, and recently reached 300 million). In the world as a whole, the rate of reproduction is tending to decline. Changes in culture and attitudes and accessibility to modern medicines motivate people in many countries to forget their original customs and traditions. Urbanization also works against the birth rate: unlike villagers, city dwellers tend to refrain from getting married. In the countries that fall into the "intermediate birth rate" category, the average number of children per family is now three, down from five or six not very long ago. This group of countries includes Brazil, the Philippines, Syria, Malaysia, Indonesia, Egypt, and a number of others. India, with a population in excess of 1 billion, also belongs to this group. It is obvious that the world population growth rate will eventually decelerate, but, complex as it is, this process cannot be assessed accurately. On what level will the world population growth stop? What variant of development would be realized? A time span of three to five generations (or more) will be required to achieve a noticeable reduction in the world population. As things stand today, the number of needy and backward people is growing, not declining. The gap between the rich and the poor also continues to increase. The United Nations plans to achieve a 50% reduction in the number of starving people on the planet in the next 15 years not a very ambitious plan, even if it succeeds (which is not obvious). It is hardly reasonable to expect that the lifestyle of having many children in the poor countries and poor layers of the population will change any time soon.

There are two sides to the demographic crisis: population decline in the developed countries and growth of the world population. The former is also an alarming phenomenon, because there is no nation on the planet that wishes to become weaker and, eventually, extinct. 68 In the past, it was believed that the more children you have, the more security you will have in old age. Children were a source of free labor and household help, particularly importantly in the villages. (In those days, fewer than half of people lived long enough to be married.) Natural selection was at work then, unlike today, when even the weakest have a chance to live and have descendants. In the wild, the absence of natural selection leads to degradation and degeneration. It has to be noted that the efficiency of natural selection today is further diminished by the fact that those who are more talented and successful often have fewer children. ("Women admire those who are talented but live with those who give them comfort," Ortega y Gasset, the Spanish philosopher.) 69 This is the source of the huge flow of unskilled and cheap labor force (the so-called guest workers). In developed countries it is considered normal for the rate of unemployment to be between 4% and 6%; sometimes it may climb to 10-12%; on rare occasions, it may be even higher.
67

Chapter 4

83

formed by the middle aged highly qualified specialists70. The "unneeded people" are those who failed to find a niche for themselves in the economy and in society. Their presence or absence has no influence on the life of the community, and their status and their fate are unclear.

Evolution: Achievements and Problems To conclude this chapter, let us briefly summarize the main achievements and problems of civilization using excerpts from the Humanist Manifesto 2000: A Call for a New Planetary Humanism. Prospects for a Better Future. We will begin by enumerating the most significant achievements in science and medicine. Although they apply largely to the developed world, their benefits are now felt virtually everywhere:

"Scientific medicine has improved health enormously. It has reduced pain and suffering, and it has increased longevity. The discovery of antibiotics and the development of vaccines, modern techniques of surgery, anesthesia, pharmacology, and biogenetic engineering have all contributed to these advances in health care. "Farsighted public health measures and improved water supplies and sewage disposal have greatly reduced the incidence of infectious disease. Therapeutic remedies, widely applied, have dramatically reduced child mortality. "The Green Revolution has transformed food production and increased crop yields. "Modern methods of mass production have increased productivity, liberated workers from many forms of physical drudgery. "New modes of transportation have reduced distances and transformed societies. The automobile and airplane have enabled people to traverse continents and overcome geographical isolation. Astronautical research has opened the human species to the exciting adventure of space exploration. "Technological discoveries have vastly accelerated new modes of communication on a worldwide basis. In addition to the benefits of telephone, fax, radio, TV, and satellite transmission, computer technology has radically transformed all aspects of socio-economic life. "The discoveries of astronomy, physics, relativity theory, and quantum mechanics have increased our understanding of the universe from the scale of micro-particles to that of galaxies. Darwin's nineteenth-century theory of natural selection has enabled us to understand how life evolved. The discoveries of DNA and molecular biology continue to reveal the mechanisms of evolution and of life itself. "Many positive social and political developments have also occurred in the twentieth century: The colonial empires have all but disappeared. The threat of totalitarianism has abated. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights is now accepted by most nations of the world (in word if not in deed). The ideals of democracy, freedom, and the open society have spread widely to Eastern Europe, Latin America, Asia, and Africa. Women in many countries now enjoy personal autonomy and legal and social rights, and have taken their place in many areas of human enterprise. The problem of population growth has been resolved in the affluent countries of Europe and North America. In many areas the population grows not because of birth rate but because of the decline of the death rate and the increase of longevity. Increased education, literacy, and cultural enrichment are now available to more and more children in the world." "A considerable part of the world population is still a long way from plenty and is living amid poverty, hunger and diseases. These problems are particularly acute in the developing countries of Asia, Africa, Central and South America. "Millions of people, including children, do not have enough food, are not receiving enough medical care and live in poor sanitary conditions. Similar problems are faced by many people in the rich countries too. "In many parts of the world population continues to grow at the rate of 3% per year. If present demographic trends persist, the world population will add another three billion in the next 50 years. "Overpopulation and industrialization detrimentally affect flora and fauna; a large number of plant and animal species have become extinct. "Many countries are experiencing serious economic problems caused by urbanization and increased migration from villages to cities. Cities are getting heavily overpopulated, while the large number of former villagers are unemployed and leading miserable existence. "Democratic institutions are often weak or nonexistent while the rulers fix elections and force the independent press into silence. "In most countries women still do not have equal rights with men.
70 It is forecast that the world average proportion of people aged over 60 will be about 20% by year 2050; the corresponding figure for the developed world will be about 40%.

The following are the main problems facing humanity that need to be addressed immediately:

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

84

"Such diseases as tuberculosis and malaria, which were believed to have become things of the past, are again gaining momentum, and AIDS is rapidly spreading over the Third World meeting almost no resistance. "There is a very real danger of weapons of mass destruction being used by fanatical terrorists, criminal governments or militarists who, even without having such goals, can cause an apocalypse. "The belief of certain circles that the free market can automatically cure all social ills remains just faith. Many countries still cannot find a reasonable compromise between the free market and the need to implement social programs for the poor." The emerging economic instabilities and crises might have catastrophic consequences and dictate the need for the development of new methods of global-scale governance. "We wish to cultivate a sense of wonder and excitement about the potential opportunities for realizing enriched lives for ourselves and for generations yet to be born. The future is born out of ideals. There will be no success without action, and there will be no action without faith. Our optimism should be based on realistic assessments and supported with belief in our ability to overcome difficulties we may confront on our way."

The concluding statements of the Humanist Manifesto 2000:

Despite numerous accidental occurrences and occasional setbacks, our civilization has developed at an increasing rate, especially recently. "The epoch of antiquity lasted for about 3,000 years, the Middle Ages covered 1,000 years, modern history lasted 300 years, and contemporary history has been just 100 years," as Sergey Kapitsa has noted. Here it is appropriate to recall that, in earlier stages, the rate of development was even slower: It took homo sapiens millions of years to develop understanding and speech. It is, therefore, logical to forecast that the next set of radical changes in the world will not be long in coming, possibly as soon as in the next several decades. If we want to survive, we will need to become more active in our studying of what is going on around us, and not just analyze and comprehend the occurring events, but try to control them and govern our own evolution. Otherwise, our further development will be an unguided process with an unknown outcome. We should not forget that many kinds of processes, including those which may cause aggravation of contradictions between nations and countries, are taking place against the background of a situation in which the world's arsenal of weapons capable of destroying civilization is growing, proliferating, and becoming more easily available. I would now like to remind my readers of synergetics, which led to the discovery of regularities in the evolution of complex systems, including nature and society (see Chapter 1). We have now come to a unique point, a bifurcation, and it is possible for the most unexpected events to occur. These events may be negative or positive, and they will ruin all exiting trends and explode previous predictions. Here it is appropriate to ask how it is possible to speak of the future if we cannot make any reliable predictions of events to come. There is one thing that can be said for certain: the unexpectedness of these events and our inability to forecast them only make the problem larger. What should we do in such a situation? There are things that can be done. To begin with, we should study a wide variety of possible outcomes, including the least probable ones. The two extreme options are a rapid and active development of space71 (an optimistic outcome) and a destructive world war (a pessimistic one). There is no doubt that we should put all our possible efforts into support the optimistic scenario and prevent the pessimistic one from occurring. It is possible to discuss other scenarios as well and work toward an acceptable one coming into being. When speaking of "fantastic" and seemingly impossible future scenarios, it is appropriate to recall that our recent history has seen much that had seemed absolutely impossible in the more distant past. It is enough to recall the discovery and subsequent proliferation of nuclear weapons and the progress in modern information technologies72; as well as such political developments as the appearance of an enormously powerful Nazi Germany with its shockingly misanthropic views and deeds in the 1930s, the quick collapse of the Soviet Union closer to the end of the 20th century, the bloodless end of the Cold War, and the catastrophic terrorist attack in New York73. Moreover, the situation in the world can be influenced by events with no precedent, for example, a rise in the world's sea level due to global warming. About two-thirds of the world's population occupy narrow zones adjacent to ocean coasts and river valleys. Their massive migration may severely exacerbate the overall situation in the world. A similar effect could be produced by a massive migration of people out of metropolises due to their high
71 Space colonization will not resolve the main problems of mankind once and forever, but it will give us some time to mature, to achieve a higher stage of civilization where there is a high quality of life for everybody and a controllable birth rate. It will probably also be possible to change our attitudes to bring them into better correspondence with reality. 72 Here it is appropriate to recall how the French Academy of Science categorically denied the existence of meteorites: "stones cannot fall from the sky!" Or how, not very long before the Wright brothers created their first airplane, it was an almost unanimous opinion of scientists that heavier-than-air flying machines were not possible. Or how Rutherford denied the possibility of using nuclear energy. 73 Some actual facts can be found among the numerous predictions published in the media at different times. It is possible that something of what is predicted today will happen somewhere in the future. How can we, however, guess which of the predicted scenarios will come true? After all, the variety of predicted scenarios is so wide and includes diametrically opposing ones.

***

Chapter 4

85

vulnerability to terrorist attacks and weapons of mass destruction. Potential threats to civilization also include such unpreventable (or almost unpreventable) events as Earth's collision with a large asteroid, sudden irradiation of the Earth with ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, or a pandemic caused by a new pathogenic agent, protection from which mankind would fail to find before it is too late74. After such cataclysms, those who survive (if any) would probably manage to preserve the knowledge accumulated by human civilization, cure the inflicted genetic damage, radically change their mindset, and create a new, sustainable civilization. Our successors will take the lessons learned into account, keep the population and its level of consumption in line with the available resources, not wage war, etc. Development is never smooth or gradual75. Development includes periods of stagnation, fits, and starts that may many deaths, followed by revivals of nations and cultures76. Whether we like it or not, creation does not guarantee survival. Many species have gone forever and others are doomed to become extinct tomorrow, while some have existed with almost no change for many millions of years. The fate of species depends on both the natural conditions and competition with other species. As regards the human species, it has pulled through numerous internecine clashes, it has internal contradictions, and it lacks the will and strength to find and enforce an optimal course of development, but it still has the power of reason and should bring it to bear to correct the mistakes and step on the right path.

74 I hope that the prophesy of the well-known British professor Stephen Hawking that mankind will perish as a result of "accidental or intentional release of a genetically engineered virus" will never come true. 75 Testifying to the fact the evolution of humanity is not a smooth process are recent statistical data published by the Forbes magazine in 2009. Denmark is No. 1 in the world in terms of Life Satisfaction Rating which is equal to 90, its per capita GDP is $68,000 and unemployment rate is 2%. It is followed by Finland, Holland, Ireland, Sweden, Switzerland, Canada, New Zealand and Belgium. The least happy people live in China where Life Satisfaction Rating is as low as 14.8, which, Forbes concludes, is not at all surprising given that working week in China is 47 hours and per capita GDP is $3,600. The Life Satisfaction Rating is calculated based on international statistics and Gallup World Poll in 140 countries. 76 Apart from the losses they inevitably bring, it is known that economic crises sometimes work as catalysts of growth.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

86

Chapter 5

Conflicts and Terrorism Religious, ethnic, and social conflicts, intrigues within groups, and domestic quarrels comprise a major part of our lives and are often accompanied by loss. The development of mankind has been a chain of wars that technology tends to make ever bloodier and bloodier. The Cold War (which fortunately never deteriorated into a global armed conflict) was the prelude to a new confrontation between the leading Western powers and extremist Islamic groups, Western super-weapons versus shahids. Major terrorist acts take place, and civilians die. Taking place almost incessantly here and there on the planet are clashes between various countries or ethnic groups. The present-day confrontations, when they are over, may well be followed by others, and one of the future conflicts might end in a global cataclysm.
Conflicts Everywhere lashes resulting in confrontations between states with large populations are particularly dangerous. Such confrontations are usually multidimensional, each including several crises and clashes economic, social, religious, or ethnic. Whenever there is a split among the ruling elites or different strata of the population, armed clashes in a country may deteriorate into a full-fledged civil war. As the American psychologist Stanislav Grof put it, "For centuries, we have been seeing racial, cultural, political, and religious intolerance that flares up every now and then in wars and bloody revolutions, invasions, and conquests." Man may be the most destructive entity on Earth no other animal else has murdered so many of its own kind. Armed conflicts are mankind's evil and bane. In the last century, World War I took 26 million lives, and World War II took nearly 55 million. War takes place among people clan war, class war, war among social groups and political parties, war of nations and states, wars of religions, and ideological wars" (Nikolay Berdyaev).)1. In fact, the human species owes its dominant position on the planet to evolution. This dominance was won by men struggling with other animals, including hominids. It is, therefore, not surprising, that we possess aggressive impulses2. It is easy to see that conflicts reveal themselves at practically every level of interaction. Many undertakings have been undone by internal contradictions. Psychologists handpick people for important programs on the basis of their "compatibility." The staff of some research centers are said to be more enthusiastic about sorting things out among themselves than between man and nature. Consciousness and outlook all too often include dissatisfaction with one's financial standing or rank, grudges against those nearby or against people of other faiths, people of different social strata or with different ideologies, etc. Very many people are convinced that they are as entitled as (or even more entitled than) others to as many benefits as possible. Fights within and the collapse of seemingly monolithic clans over heirlooms are a vivid example.

Lasting relationships even in small groups are only possible when a compromise between the aspirations of every member has been found. Even in the family, being the basic cell of society, one is frequently compelled to abandon one's habits or goals for the sake of one's spouse. Struggle, however, takes place even here though mostly sluggishly and without fanfare. Most people try, consciously or not, to shift the balance of the compromise in his or her own favor. This frequently happens when one side is weakened by failure, loss of position, poor state of health, or so forth. Statistical data confirm this: more than every other married couple files for divorce in many countries (over 80% of them in the Russian Federation). Almost 50 homicides over petty grievances are logged in Russia every day (the murderer is usually drunk). Analyzing the aggressiveness of the poor countries and the spread of terrorism, many analysts come to conclude that the reasons lie in the high proportion of young people and extremely high rate of unemployment. In approximately 70
1

The following in an excerpt from Evgeny Satanovskiy, President of the Institute of the Middle East (quoted from Izvestia, July 8, 2008): "Wars begin in different ways. Sometimes they are wanted and prepared, people rush to fight applauded by the public which may be liberal or conservative-patriotic. The flow of adrenaline is so strong that they cannot but fight. As regards the purpose of fighting, it may not be clear even before the war, much less after. Sometimes wars occur suddenly, unplanned, unintentionally. They grow of territorial claims or border strife. Or of somebody's stupidity, overestimate of one's own power or underestimate of the adversary's strength. But the worst scenario is the one where there is absolutely no reason for fighting but war in inevitable. Such wars are reminiscent of a head-on collision of locomotives. The trains are bound to their tracks, they cannot turn and even if one of them stops that won't save anybody. And they seek salvation in speed and strength of the impact". 2 "The unconscious urge for conflict motivates communities to engage in an incessant search for more and more signs of distinction tribal, racial, religious, geographical, etc A pretext for a blood feud could be, for example, the fact that men of one tribe drew two stripes on their foreheads, while men of the other tribe drew three" (Akop Nazaretian). "It is not because we are divided into opposing groups that mankind is permanently ready for fighting; the fact is that the very structure of mankind is the source of irritation needed for the consummation of the urge for aggression. Many sociologists and psychologists argue that if it had been another way, mankind's present situation would not be as dangerous as it is," (Konrad Lorenz). Finally, let's recall Pushkin's "there is ecstasy in fighting or in standing on the edge of a macabre abyss."

Chapter 5

87

countries the young constitute over 30% of the population, and some 60 of these 70 countries are plagued by civil wars, massive unrest and terrorism.

Conflict Settlement There are different ways to defuse or settle a conflict peacefully: negotiations, the search for a compromise, for mutually beneficial solutions, for a consensus, understanding and respect for the other's interests, and emphasis on the loss on both sides inherent in the confrontation; involvement of an intermediary respected by the interested parties (say, a law court); involvement of superiors or organizations; or informal talks between the interested parties, going for agreement from the lowest possible level. Nonviolence presupposes cooperation, mutual restraint, respect for each other's rights and interests and hence accord. Nonviolence should be taken as principal approach to resolving each conflict. However, it is important to eliminate the habitual (for mass consciousness) associations of nonviolence with passivity, docility and connivance. There are other strategies that can be recommended as well: Concentration on interests and not on positions and insistence on the use of objective criteria. Dialogue should begin with attempts to find a common ground, not concealing the existence of the problem at hand, but not concentrating on it either. One should try to forestall possible negative reactions from the other party, to try to look at the situation through the opponent's eyes. Another option is search for a common enemy: and so stop internecine fights for the sake of uniting against a common enemy. It is good to look for a common cause or project. Personal relations between functionaries from opposing groups also work to stave off aggression. Such personal contacts may reduce or even eliminate hostility. Activities to promote nonviolence should be performed openly and publicly and should be sufficiently covered by media. Only with sufficient public involvement can such activities be really effective. In this case, it is possible to influence the atmosphere of relations between the opposing sides, to eliminate hostility and distrust. It is intransigence that is the precursor of tragedy. Participants of nonviolence promotion activities are required to display not only respect, but also tolerance, care and compassion to the opponents. Nonviolence promotion actions should be spearheaded against evil and injustice, not against people who have been doing injustice willingly or unwillingly. Advocates of nonviolence should refrain from humiliating the people whom they criticize. Whenever a confrontation is dragged out, bitterness usually intensifies, but one or even both sides in a drawn-out confrontation may weaken and drop out (as happened in the Cold War not long ago). Nonviolent resistance to evil has been a prominent theme in history (Lev Tolstoy, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King3. Gandhi, for one, viewed "civil disobedience" as the best method of struggle (in India against the colonialists). He also promoted a "nonviolent civilization" based on the principles of conscience and voluntary self-restraint (an important idea for the world as it now is). "Violence, even violence in the name of justice, has outlived its usefulness," Gandhi said. "Dignity demands obedience to a higher law--the strength of spirit and mind The idea of nonviolence was born in the ancient Eastern religious cults. It was an integral part of the systems of Hinduism, Buddhism, and Confucianism. The concept of nonviolence evolved in early Christianity, which worked up its own approach to nonviolence based on to the concept of self-sacrifice and love. It should be noted that the principle of nonviolence was abandoned when Christianity became a state religion." Or, as the 14th Dalai Lama said, "Violence is possible only as an alternative to a more vicious violence." History, on the other hand, knows episodes in which "nonviolence" paved the way for extreme forms of violence (consider Adolf Hitler's nonviolent and legitimate ascension to power in Germany). On certain stages of government evolution, escalations of violence in all conceivable forms came as the consequence of faltering efficiency of the executive and law enforcement agencies combined with moral decline and poor discipline of the population. Attempts to avert threats through negotiations, peaceful actions, etc. have a better chance to succeed when the involved parties are at a fairly high level of consciousness, recognize the value of human life and the unacceptability of producing victims, and are aware of the danger of global conflicts. For the time being, however, "people promote freedom, but they are compelled to use violence whenever there are dangerous enemies to deal with"4(as Nikolay Berdyaev put it). Incidentally, these words were cited when NATO was established as a counterweight to the Soviet Union. Violence is amoral, but so is reconciliation with evil. Nonviolence is a form of active opposition to evil and injustice. Exactly it is an opposition and resistance. Here it is appropriate to ask the question: What is more important: Refraining from the use of force or offering a resistance to evil? In a situation where immediate resistance to evil is required the use of force may become unavoidable. Solution to problems by peaceful means is an ideal to which mankind should aspire, given the level
3 4

This idea is also formulated as "do not respond to evil with evil." Here it is appropriate to recall how famous Russian writer Fyodor Dostoevsky and other intellectuals demanded Russia's military involvement in the Balkans to stop Turkish atrocities.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

88

of weaponry and other realities of our time. The task of the international community comes down to achieving a level of relationships and consciousness at which war and hostility become universally unacceptable. Tolstoy's and Gandhi's ideas may become the guideline. It is necessary to reemphasize that very many aspects of Eastern cultures may (and should) be used in the new phase of mankind's development5. "The abandonment of violence," says the Dalai Lama, "is a long road that requires inner discipline, compassion, and patience." The American Professor Glenn Page and his school studied the possibility of "a society without killing" not long ago (see Chapter 18).

The behavior of individuals, their relations with others and their ability to find peaceful ways to resolve simplest problems are critically important. Peter Russell's book "The Consciousness Revolution" states that we need to disseminate techniques and technologies which help people achieve more peace with themselves. This is becoming increasingly important as the rate of life increases, requiring quick decision-making on numerous issues. We need to review the techniques developed in different spiritual traditions and make them more accessible, Peter Russell notes in the book. The essence of healthy human relations is mutual care. We are learning through trial and error and very often master this art only by our evening years. Every time one feels being hurt he defends himself resorting to some kind of offense. This may manifest itself in the intonation or choice of words, the aim being to make it so that the opponent felt being in trouble and under attack. The second party joins the game thus closing up the vicious circle. Each one wants to be loved and wants to live in peace with himself, but does everything to make the other party feel guilty. The basic principle of healthy human relations should be formulated as follows: I should behave in a way that the others do not feel hostility and hence respond in the same way, Peter Russell concludes. The ideas and conclusions presented hereabove were well understood by ancient philosophers who called to "love your enemies, bless those who condemn you and pray for those who abuse you and chase you away."

Social and Political Conflicts Conflicts in society are bred by individuals' dissatisfaction with their financial or social standing, encroachments on their rights, and the struggle for power. They are also engendered by the political demands of a new leadership and regime, in which case rearrangement of assets is implied more often than not. Pitirim Sorokin (a prominent American sociologist born in Russia) once said that "Expansion of the suppressed basic instincts of the population and the impossibility of meeting them even to a minimal extent is the direct precondition for any revolution If the digestive reflex of a major part of the population is 'suppressed' by hunger, then it is one of the reasons for insurrections and revolutions; suppression of the instinct of self-preservation by despotic executions, mass murder, and bloody atrocities provides another reason for revolutions. Whenever the instinct for ownership of the masses is suppressed, whenever impoverishment and privation are omnipresent, and particularly against the background of others' prosperity, we have another reason for revolution." It is the powers-that-be that essentially manage resources and people. Looking after the preservation and improvement of their own positions, they do what they can to channel the discontent of the population into dissatisfaction with other social strata, ethnic minorities, and the world beyond. Their actions are accompanied by ideological/political or religious mythology, anything will do from "actions in the interest of the people" to "omens." Tension mounts, and irrational decisions become more and more of a probability with the aggravation of conflicts and stress. "Power is strength, and strength is difficult to restrict within certain limits," as Arnold Toynbee said. The development of media allows for more and more efficient methods of manipulation: as things stand, it does not really take very long to condition entire countries. Acute political conflicts may occur in seemingly stable countries. The examples include forceful dispersal of protests in Novocherkassk in the Soviet Union and Tiananmen Square in China. Wars within countries, or civil wars, are known for involving the masses and, as a rule, ferocity and the deployment of terrorist acts. Mankind knew civil wars in ancient times in Assyria in the 9th-7th centuries BC, in the Roman empire, in Europe, in Asia, and in other parts of the world. More recent examples include wars in the United States, Russia, Spain, Greece, Lebanon, Afghanistan, El Salvador, and Yugoslavia. As for local conflicts, such as street disturbances, they usually follow a standard pattern: the discontented gathered in their hundreds or thousands form a mob or a demonstration, their slogans serving to increase tension and excitement, and others join them out of curiosity. Warming up, the mob craves for action and may actually resort to fighting, looting, or pogroms. Criminals who find themselves in the right place at the right time play an important part in developments, as the developing situation opens a vista of opportunities. Looting may be universal in
5 Mahatma Gandhi's policy will likely be studied in the future. "We've seen an amazing sight: a man lacking state power, one without a single soldier in his command or even a servant, a homeless man wearing but a loincloth, became the spiritual and political leader of 300 million, his single quietly spoken word sufficing to unite these millions in the bloodless struggle for liberation of their country, and the shedding of the enemy's blood resulted in an all-Indian fast and mourning" (Daniil Andreev, Russian philosopher of the 20th century).

Chapter 5

89

the absence of the authorities or when a regime is being replaced, not to mention in periods of catastrophes. In such circumstances people may succumb to baser instincts and besides, the example of crowd can be infectious. Ethnic Conflicts Individuals strive to identify a group particularly close to him or her, a group whose support can be counted on. This is usually the family, residents in the same apartment building or the neighborhood, and/or people of the same ethnic origin. Ethnic awareness and ethnic community are important factors in behavior and mentality that appeared and developed in the course of evolution because an individual could survive only within a group or tribe, and never on their own. The problems that frequently confront society may split it into different ethnic parts at odds with each other, sometimes over differences in mores and culture, but more often for economic and social reasons. Situations take shape in which traditional industriousness, mutual support, or pure chance promotes one ethnic group over others in some business or sphere, this enraging the losers. When the Nazis came to power in Germany in the late 1930s, they launched a campaign against Jews, with expropriation of their property6; This ended in concentration camps and the deaths of 6 million people, doomed by their ethnic origin. A rapid increase of the nonindigenous population in a region due to immigration or a higher birth rate is one of the mechanisms that breed conflict. The discontented see the only solution in consolidation and struggle. Tendencies such as these develop rapidly when the authorities prove unable to take preventive action or actually want the disturbances to continue. Ethnic confrontations can last for years; they take root in the mind, are passed on from one generation to the next, and may even flare up without any apparent reason. Domestic ethnic conflicts in many a country have killed hundreds of thousands, even millions. Ethnic violence in Africa is a recent example consider the Tutsi and Hutu clashes in Rwanda. Hundreds of thousands were murdered after 1994, and a great many others became refugees or were displaced. Serious clashes have been taking place in Indonesia and Sudan7 and clashes between rebels and government troops in Columbia have been under way since the early 1960s. Initiated and inspired by the conflicting blocs the world was once divided into, events in Korea and Vietnam became wars on an unprecedented scale. Analogous wars took place in Congo, Angola, and other countries. The disintegration of Yugoslavia into sovereign states was accompanied by wars and the deaths of hundreds of thousands in deliberate ethnic purges (Albanians, Croats, Serbs, and Bosnians). Confrontation in China is essentially international (Taiwan or Formosa versus the mainland). Domestic conflicts frequently become international, because the involved parties begin seeking support abroad. The collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in which hundreds of thousands of "foreigners" were compelled to flee in each of these countries. Bloody clashes took place in Tajikistan. The most recent examples are the conflicts between Georgia and its former constituent parts Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Thousands have died in ethnic and religious conflicts in India, both in the country itself and on the border with Pakistan. A major terrorist act was committed in Mumbai in late 2008. Kurds living in Turkey, Iraq, and nearby countries have been fighting for self-determination for decades. It took generations to do away with segregation and discord between Afro-Americans and whites in the United States. Even European countries know problems between the indigenous population and immigrants. Practically every country has encountered ethnic conflicts of a lesser or greater intensity at one time or another. A great many colonies have known wars of liberation in which transfer of power and property to the titular nation was one of the major demands. Extremist slogans and bloodshed frequently followed. As a rule, these movements (with the ferociousness of the actual armed clashes differing in degrees) eventually result in sovereignty and self-determination, but not necessarily in democratic changes: many countries thus liberated became dictatorships or totalitarian regimes whose transformation is time-consuming.

6 7

"The more we take from them, the better it will be for our people" became the slogan. More than a million were killed in the wake of the coup in Indonesia in 1958; tens of thousands were killed and millions made refugees in Sudan.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

90

International Conflicts To a considerable extent, the history of mankind is the history of conquest, the history of the rise and fall of states and empires. Almost all of the political map of the world as we know it today owes its shape to military conflicts. ("War is a continuation of political activity by other means," as Karl von Clausewitz wrote.) International conflicts are fomented by territorial disputes, struggle over resources, attempts to split or conquer countries weakened by internal strife, the rulers' ambitions (frequently), and aspirations for regional or global hegemony. Ethnic tendencies of "consolidation" include pan-Germanism, pan-Slavism, pan-Islamism, and so on. "Nations promote what policies are dictated by geography," to quote Napoleon. Convenient territories were populated by different peoples in different periods. As a result, conflicts are often fomented by demands for territories that have belonged to their current population for generations. Such disputes have practically no solution, apart from agreeing to maintain the status quo and respect existing borders. For Europe, an agreement was signed in Helsinki in 1975 (signed by 35 countries) recognizing and confirming the division of territories as it was after the last World War and not permitting any new territorial ambitions. The document recognizes the borders in Europe as of the outcome of World War II as inviolable8. The Final Act of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) later confirmed the territorial integrity of all postwar European states. The OSCE includes 55 countries in Europe, America, and Central Asia. Still, reasons for conflicts are found even nowadays. Self-proclaimed formations aspire for statehood NagornoKarabakh, Transdniester, northern Cyprus, Kosovo and the aforementioned Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In each individual case, independence of such self-proclaimed countries enjoys support from different countries based on their political and other preferences. For example, let's have a look at the schematic world map showing attitudes of different countries towards Kosovo recognition (status as of February 2008).

Countries which have formally recognized Kosovo independence. Countries which have announced their intention to recognize Kosovo independence in the near future. Countries which have postponed making their decision on the issue of Kosovo independence. Countries which have expressed criticism with regard to the unilateral declaration of Kosovo independence. Countries which have declared their intention to deny recognition of Kosovo independence. Countries which have not made any official statements regarding their position on the issue of Kosovo independence. There is a notion of a "just war." This denotes a war fought in self-defense or the liberation of occupied territories. International practice permits killing enemy soldiers in such wars. But what about the deaths of noncombatants? How acceptable is it to bomb cities in these wars? Noncombatants were callously exterminated in the past, but the appearance of modern weapons in the last century kept the frontiers of "the acceptable" expanding. These tendencies are taking root. It is noncombatants who become the targets in terrorist attacks today, which is another factor necessitating replacement of military solutions to conflicts with principles of "nonviolence."
8

The same document lists humanitarian, economic, and ecological factors, along with military-political ones, as security problems in Europe.

Chapter 5

91

Seemingly the most advanced and civilized region of the world in the 20th century, Europe (in the opinion of the population of the West, at least) became a battlefield for major clashes. World Wars I and II are proof that progress does not rule out armed conflicts, not for the time being, at least. On the contrary, progress makes armed conflicts larger and more lethal. World War II became their apotheosis, with the death toll counted in dozens of millions and Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombed with nuclear weapons. This war taught mankind a lesson. When it was over, the international community tried to set up a new, more efficient international structure for conflict prevention (the United Nations). Moreover, later, 27 European countries formed an unprecedented structure guaranteeing no more domestic wars the European Union. Possible causes of future global conflicts include the same opposition of the superpowers and their rivalry for world dominance and attempts by radical movements at creating a "global commonwealth of justice." It cannot be ruled out that conflicts might be catalyzed by energy deficits or environmental problems, such as use of force against a country to urge it to stop economic activities which create problems for its neighbors. The struggle for territory (Lebensraum, as the Nazi propaganda put it) might also become an issue if a rise in the level of the oceans leaves millions of people homeless. The Conflict between Western Civilization and Islamic Fundamentalism Rivalry between the worlds of Christianity and Islam has been under way for centuries. There were periods when eastern and southern countries were ahead of Europe in terms of development (the progress in the East in the first millennium A.D. and the appearance of the first ancient civilizations). There were Western raids of the East to the sites of ancient religions, and Eastern invasions of the West to the very Iberian Peninsula and Vienna, which was laid siege to. It was in the space of the last several centuries and with the onset of the Industrial Revolution in Europe that the East was left far behind in the sense of scientific-technical progress and in living standards. (Some countries of the East did regain momentum and made it to the advance guard of civilization; see Chapter 8.) The Islamic Organization for Education, Science, and Culture recently published the following data on 55 Asian and African countries: almost 1.3 million Muslims live on the territory from Indonesia to Morocco, but 60-70% of them are illiterate, and the number of scientists with degrees per 1 million people is 3000 below that in the industrially advanced countries of the West. Scientists in Israel alone outnumber their counterparts in all of the Islamic world. The spectrum of state systems in the world of Islam varies from monarchies to authoritarian regimes with differing degrees of emphasis on religion. As a matter of fact, fairly strict, even totalitarian regimes, even appeared in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. "The Islamic world is now a source of radical movements that denounce both Western policies and the principle of religious tolerance," Francis Fukuyama wrote in 2002. "These groups celebrated 9/11 as humiliation of society which in their eyes is depraved by definition They hate the fact that the state in Western countries is supposed to provide religious tolerance and pluralism instead of promoting religious truth. Religious identity obscures all other val-

The Spread of Islam in the World ues." Emphasis on the contrast of cultures is one of the propagandistic levers in the East: denunciation of Western ways and traditions, both family and cultural, and business laws and the attitude toward alcohol. In the opinion of Lawrence Harris (Mental Suicide), Islamic fanaticism serves as a mechanism to protect the con(Sunnite areas are marked green; Shiite areas are marked brown)

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

92

Initially Islam, of the period when the Prophet lived in Mecca (609-622 A.D.), promoted peace among all peoples. Men and women enjoyed equal rights, conversion into Islam by coercion was prohibited, and other faiths were tolerated. In the period that followed, however, the Medina period (after 622), the Koran gives the order: "Allah only forbids you respecting those who made war upon you on account of [your] religion, and drove you forth from your homes Cursed wherever they are found they shall be seized and murdered, a [horrible] murdering." And
9 With the Ottoman Empire defeated in World War I, the establishment of countries in the Arab world took place with the involvement of England and France, which enabled them to retain their clout with the region a while longer. 10 According to Thomas Friedman, the feeling of frustration and humiliation among the population of the Islamic World is also fueled by the fact that civilizations that used to be inferior to them the Hindus, Jews, Christian nations and the Chinese are presently better off than many Muslim countries. For example, the Muslim countries account for only 4% of the world trade volume, although their combined population makes up 20% of the world population. 11 First and foremost in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other countries of the Arabian Peninsula, in Pakistan, and in Nigeria.

servative Islam from the pressure of the outside world which is rapidly changing all the time. On the other hand, fanaticism is a powerful offensive weapon which helps Islam conquer new lands even though it lacks modern technologies. The determination to retain the mores of Islam frequently interferes with social and political reforms, without which the task of raising the living standards of the majority becomes extremely difficult. Democracy and liberalism are absent in many countries, as are freedom of expression and religion. There is a saying that societies where the past rules the present oppose the those where the future rules the present. Some look for the historical reasons behind the superiority of the West in developed science and technology, living standards, and political and military clout in the ancient Mongol raids of the Arab East, in the lengthy Turkish rule, and in the ensuing British and French domination9. Another hypothesis ascribes the retardation to the fact that women enjoy no civil rights. This withdraws half of the population from the process of development, and children are frequently brought up by barely literate and down-trodden women. A more plausible explanation, however, ascribes this state of affairs to the unusual breakthrough in the Industrial Revolution and the rapid advance of the West or, even more probably, a whole combination of factors. Several factors have played parts in the evolution of Europe continuity and development of Greco-Roman culture, the triumph of liberal ideology at some point, and probably even pure chance. Development followed a different pattern in the East. Some countries of the East pooled their efforts in Palestine in 1948 and again in 1967 but were defeated. The situation fomented a complex of inferiority, feeling of being humiliated, bitterness, and aggressiveness, growth of chauvinism, and strengthening of Wahhabi trends in Islam10. "War between the liberal democracy of the West and Islamic Fascism is not a war between two similarly constructive cultural systems, when both control modern science and technologies, create wealth, and deal with the variety of the modern world. Western institutions have everything at their disposal and will continue their spread all over the world," Francis Fukuyama said. The radical Islamic movements of the East are out to fight the world of the West, first and foremost the United States and Israel. Imam Khomeini, one of the Islamic authorities has stated that, "Jihad or Holy War means conquest of all non-Muslim territories This is a war for installation of the laws of the Koran all over Earth." Osama bin Laden has echoed him: "War for the triumph of Islam the world over is a part of our religion and Sharia law. This war is compulsory for every faithful person." (Yet another force aspiring for conquest of the world by strength of arms; this becoming more and more dangerous for all civilization every time.) Some even advance the thesis that the abandonment of the attributes of progress and a return to nature and orthodox religion will allow mankind to survive. Their objectives include the overthrow of moderate regimes in the East that maintain normal relations with the West11, and the physical extermination of whoever interprets Islam differently. The confrontation between the Israelis and Palestinians is the cutting edge of the conflict. Fundamentalism (a return to the primary values of Islam) and relatively scarce secular democracies are two extremes of the world of Islam. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk installed the latter in Turkey in 1923, although democracy in that country is far behind its Western analogs. There are other dividing lines as well religious (Shia and Sunni, first and foremost), ethnic (Arabs and Persians), and political (different forms of rule). More than one attempt has been made to unite the populations of the Arab East. (Former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser tried this not long ago, and Egypt is now known as the United Arab Republic.) Fundamentalism is particularly active today. Its goal is to strengthen faith in the fundamental sources of Islam, to bring every Muslim's social and private life in line with religious postulates. Islam is not viewed as a framework of religious views alone; it is regarded as a sociopolitical concept capable of addressing and solving practically all problems of the individual and society. Fundamentalist Wahhabis (Wahhabism was established by Muhammad al-Wahhab in the 18th century) constitute a military organization that carefully handpicks its members and arranges for their thorough military training and ideological indoctrination. The Wahhabis regard all other schools of thought, including Muslim ones, as "infidel." Rejection of others' ways deteriorates into a religious confrontation between civilizations.

Chapter 5

93

then, "Men are the maintainers of women because Allah has made some of them to excel others and because they spend out of their property." Rafael Khakimov, Director of the Institute of History of the Academy of Sciences of Tatarstan, writes that "The discord between the verses of the Mecca and Medina periods is too apparent. They are incompatible. That is why Muslim theologians consider ajats (commandments) of the Mecca period as void, as they are earlier. But the Prophet Himself did not remove them from the text of the Koran. It is not as if some verses are proclaimed void and others valid; it is necessary to understand that they aim for different audiences and different eras The Koran is allegedly beyond comprehension, is something to be taken on faith alone. A traditionalism that denounces all and any changes is established. The times change, and many postulates come to require a new construction There were no weapons of mass destruction in the Prophet Mohammed's time. Calls for war on the infidels carried a different message then; they stipulated different means. Today, Muslims should base their faith on the eternal idea of universal solidarity dated to the Mecca period, because a humanity that aspires to kindness is one of the manifestations of Allah."12. According to Professor Andrey Kurayev of the Moscow Religious Academy, "The Islamic Umma, or church, is run by scholars. The voice of Islam is the voice of the ulemas or theologians Interpretation of the Koran's jihad injunction depends on them. The Saudi Arabian authorities fired 1,710 clerics in May 2003 alone, meaning that the problem is not restricted to isolated cases. On this scale, endorsement of terrorism becomes a malady of the whole Islamic world. It is not terrorism that Islam should be blamed for. It is the insufficient ardor with which it defends its sacred Koran from new interpretations by zealots It is necessary to remember, however, that not all Muslims are terrorists nowadays. That is what should be kept in mind" (Izvestia, September 2004).

Immigration and a high birth rate allow for Muslim expansion into the West at present. There are approximately 5 million to 6 million Muslims in North America and France each and 2 million to 3 million in Germany and England13, and there are thousands of mosques. Muslims have been living in Russia, a country of numerous religions, since time out of mind. They number about 12 (or 15?) million14. Attempts are being made in a lot of countries to Europeanize Muslims, to get them to adopt the way of life of the indigenous population. The abolition of alienation and assimilation of new citizens of the Western countries is one of the problems in the existing confrontation of civilizations.

Terrorism. International conflict between radical Islam and Western countries has taken the form of an extensive terrorist struggle. Intimidation, psychological shock, and destabilization of society are what terrorist acts aim to accomplish. The Latin word terror signifies for "fright" and "fear"; the term "terrorism" first appeared in the course of the Jacobin repressions in the French Revolution. Terror can here be defined as "the use or threat of violence against civilians, usually to instill fear or in order achieve control of the situation for political, religious, or other purposes15. Mostly initiated by extreme fundamental schools, the existing Islamic terrorism began with the Muslim Brothers, an organization founded in Egypt in the late 1920s16. History knows precedents of this, such as the sect of Assassins that operated all over the Islamic world in the th 12 and 13th centuries. When training killers who were not supposed to outlive their targets, the sect used drugs (those the name "Assassins" or "Hashishins," a derivative of "hashish"). The sect even arranged "special treat12 The same source on the Islamic subcivilization of Tatarstan in Russia writes that "It so happened that the Tatars found themselves the northernmost outpost of Islam; they are on the border between the West and the East both geographically and culturally More than 80% of Tatar young people call themselves Muslims, but only 4% of them attend mosques Tatar young people aspire to entire modern universities, very many aspire to European colleges and prefer English as a course that is useful in business, politics, and science As far as the Tatars are concerned, modernization is an internal and logical process of evolution of Islam itself. Millions of Muslims grew up in Russia in absolute conviction that they were living and should be living in a secular country, taking into account the culture developed over centuries. Like Russia in general, Tatarstan makes hi-tech products, a feat that demands development of its own schools of thought and a system of higher education." This ideology (or is it religion?) is defined by the term "EuroIslam." It is based on critical thinking as a method of modern interpretation of the Koran as a guarantee of constant progress of Muslim culture. 13 Some estimates assume that at least 1% of them are radicals, which is quite a dangerous number of potential shahids. 14 In Russia, Muslims constitute a majority in Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, and Karachayevo-Cherkessia. For ages, Islam in Russia had developed side-by-side with other religions and, therefore, Muslims in Russia developed mechanisms of peaceful coexistence with not only Christians and Jews, but also with Buddhists, pagans and atheists. This helped Russia survive such geopolitical catastrophes as the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the collapse of the Soviet Union. 15 Here are but a few of numerous examples from history. "Between 3,000 and 4,000 people were executed in the 35 years of the reign of Ivan the Terrible. Between 4,000 and 12,000 (estimates differ) people were executed in Paris overnight in approximately the same period, and almost 100,000 in Holland over a fairly short period" (Sergey Kara-Murza, Soviet Civilization: From the Beginning to the Great Victory). 16 The slogan is: "God is ideal, the Prophet is the leader, jihad is the means to the end, and death for God is a treasured dream." Their emblem is the Koran and two crossed sabers.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

94

ment" for its customers on occasion. Women were used for the purpose, a demonstration of the harem awaiting them in Paradise once the "heroic deed" had been accomplished. The Muslim Brothers fought to seize power in Egypt. Its members even tried to assassinate President Nasser, and it was after this attempt on his life that the organization was crushed. It had divisions in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Sudan, Syria, Qatar, Jordan, and other countries. It even operated in Afghanistan, to which volunteers for the "holy war" on the Soviet Union were sent from other Muslim countries. Almost 10,000 mujaheddin were trained. The United States greatly assisted the mujaheddin for a time, to the sum of $500 million a year. The Americans provided weapons and trained the mujaheddin in their use. Terrorists were trained for other countries as well17. Both sides in the Cold War spared no effort in establishing terrorist networks for use against the enemy, and the networks in question certainly included citizens of third countries18. Osama bin Laden founded his Al-Qaeda organization (the word means "organization," "foundation," or "rule") in 1988. This is an active terrorist organization with cells in numerous countries19. He branded America the worst enemy of the Muslim world. The United States in its turn blamed Al-Qaeda for acts of sabotage against US military bases in Saudi Arabia in 1995-1996. Terrorist acts in other countries followed, culminating with 9/11 in New York. According to Margaret Thatcher, "We know now that bin Laden's terrorists spent years preparing their crimes. Proliferation of their mad, depraved ideology (there is no way to call it a religion) took place right before our eyes. We must have been blind not to see it. In short, the world has never ceased being a dangerous place. The West became careless. There can be no doubt that this is the major lesson of the September 11 tragedy, and we must learn it if we want our civilization to survive." It may be added that the terrorist act in New York was celebrated in the Islamic world in general, and also by 70-80% of the Muslims in England, Germany, and France. As things stand today, Al-Qaeda and Taliban are in control of certain territories in Afghanistan and Pakistan, they keep on training paramilitary formations, and victory over them is not yet seen on the horizon. As far as Afghanistan is concerned, history knows quite a few attempts at its subjugation all without success. At this moment, situation in Afghanistan plays one of the key roles in the overall situation in Central Asia and has a strong influence on the penetration of narcotic drugs into a number of regions of the world. Terrorism and Terror in Russia Some particularly notorious pages of the history of political terrorism terrorism against the state were written in Russia in the late 19th and early 20th centuries20. Changes were taking place in the country (serfdom was abolished, local self-governmental bodies and open courts established, censorship eased, etc.), but their half-baked nature and insufficient radicalism left various strata of society, particularly the nonaristocratic intelligentsia, deeply disappointed. They regarded some countries in Western Europe as an example, countries where despotic regimes had become history and given way to liberal ones. The reaction to the violence deployed by the autocratic regime took the form of the nationwide revolutionary organization "Land and Freedom" (1876)21, followed by the "People's Will" (1879) and the Combat Organization of SRs (Socialist Revolutionaries), who aimed at "disorganization of the government through terrorism." Vera Zasulich shot the head of the St. Petersburg administration, and assassinations of other officials followed general governors, heads of municipal administrations, commanders of military units, wardens, policeman, and others. Not even members of the State Council and members of the royal family were immune. Tsar Alexander II was finally assassinated after several thwarted attempts. (By the way, Yevno Azef (one of the planners of the terrorist acts and an agent provocateur on secret services' payroll) contemplated destroying the royal palace using two planes 100 years before the New York tragedy (he never got around to it).) Boris Savinkov, another leader of the antigovernment underground, wrote that "war on the regime was waged through elimination of the representatives of the regime recognized as particularly criminal and dangerous enemies of freedom. Eliminating them, the Combat Organization acts in self-defense and attacks, instilling fear and disorganizing the ruling spheres. It is out to make it plain to the government that preservation of the autocracy is a sheer impossibility." Certain norms of ethics were followed at the time: punishment was restricted to the guilty
17 A typical training course had topography, medicine, driving, and fundamentals of security as the first phase. Phase two included studies of weapons and organization of attacks. Phase three was use of the acquired skills in practice. 18 The German Democratic Republic was particularly successful on this score. Thousands of activists of national liberation movements and outright terrorists were trained at its testing sites and shooting ranges. 19 Al-Qaeda is essentially an umbrella, a mix of organizations with various objectives and local, regional, or international contacts. 20 Dmitry Karakozov, who failed to assassinate Emperor Alexander II, is viewed as the first Russian terrorist of this period. 21 The "Land and Freedom" organization numbered 200-300 members. Its program included the "systematic extermination of particularly harmful and prominent government officials" and suggested mass political terror in the wake of a future revolution. Sergey Nechayev and Pyotr Tkachev were principal ideologists of the era.

Chapter 5

95

alone, and women and children not to be affected. Terror is much more vicious in the world we live in today terrorist acts are planned and carried out among the masses, regardless of the presence of women and children, and media coverage is sought to boost the initial effect. An unbelievable outburst of violence in Russia both state terror and terrorism against the state took place after the government crushed a peaceful demonstration in front of the Winter Palace on January 9, 1905, when more than 4500 were killed or wounded (this is remembered as Bloody Sunday). Over 10,000 ended their lives facing a firing squad or gallows, sentenced to death by civilian and military courts over the following three years. Terrorists responded by murdering almost 300 and wounding 400 state officials between October 1905 and April 1906. A certain part of the population sympathized with and even sometimes sponsored the terrorists22. The assassins were confident that they were waging a war on violence and bringing the revolution closer. The establishment of a new society, one without cruelty and violence in it, was the ultimate objective. As Leo Tolstoy's article "Thou Shall Not Kill!" says on the subjects of terrorism and war, "When they [the rulers] are murdered, these murders arouse among kings and emperors and their retinue great amazement mixed with indignation, as though these people themselves have never participated in murders, never used them, never ordered them. Even the kindest among the murdered kings in the meantime, say, Alexander II or Humbert [the Italian king] were executioners, participants, and accomplices in the murders of tens of thousands who perished on the battlefield; evil kings and emperors were guilty of murders by the hundreds of thousands and millions What was done on the orders of kings and emperors attacks based on religion, hanging, decapitation, massacres in war was crueler than assassinations carried out by anarchists." The next wave of terror began in the 1917 Revolution when Vladimir Lenin, once he took over, proclaimed a policy of "mass terror" and the principle of "the end justifying the means." People who fought the Reds were exterminated during the Red Terror period, along with sympathizers and those who belonged to "suspicious" strata priests ("the more, the better," Vladimir Lenin then ordered), officers of the former tsarist army, and so on. Supporters of the Revolution were targets of a retaliatory White Terror. Hostages were frequently taken and executed. Millions died. The viciousness and cruelty with regard to one's fellow countrymen were truly amazing. Another of Lenin's postulates was that a civil war "inevitably leads to dictatorship which means but unlimited power, based directly on violence and absolutely unrestricted by any rules." The All-Union Emergency Commission (Cheka) and other punitive organizations were established and the first concentration camps set up. Wealthy peasants23, were methodically exterminated through the 1920s and 1930s, together with former comrades-in-arms revolutionaries, Red Army commanders, and others who seemed disloyal or were merely unlucky enough to be picked to meet the quotas set up by the new authorities24. More tragic events followed in the early 1930s famines in Ukraine, the Volga area and several other regions caused by the nearly total confiscation of food from the peasants. The combined death toll was 4 (7?) million people (according to different estimates)25. Once the German troops were driven out in 1943-44, state terror against the population of the country took the form of deportations from the Crimea and the Caucasus. Being accused of collaboration with the Germans, whole ethnic groups were deported to the eastern regions of the country without trial. Herded into boxcars, they were dispatched to sites without any infrastructure. This happened to the Chechens, Karachais, Balkars, Ingush, Kalmyks, Crimean Tatars, and others. A great many of the deported persons died en route (some experts evaluate the death rate at 30%). Neither was mass murder unheard of when problems with transportation were encountered. Mass deportations had happened even before the war. Poles and Germans from Ukraine were deported to the Karaganda region in 1936, Koreans from the Far East to Central Asia in 1937, and Germans from the Trans-Volga region to the eastern regions of the Soviet Union. The Baltic countries and other regions of the country knew of similar campaigns. Almost 3 million people were thus deported, all in all. When the war was over, repressions began against former prisoners of war and noncombatants who had been taken to Germany as slaves. Triumph in the war with Japan enabled the Soviet Army to enter Harbin, a city where a great many Russians had been living since the revolution. Many were deported, dispatched to labor camps, or summarily exe-

Here it is appropriate to recall famous Russian writer Alexander Kuprin who, speaking about Russian terrorists, stressed how "generously, modestly, selflessly and sincerely they wasted their lives in the name of the illusive idea of future happiness for humanity." 23 Alexander Solzhenitsyn: "Deceived by the Bolsheviks in 1917 ("Immediate peace!" and, several months later, forceful with execution for evasion mobilization into the Red Army; "All land to peasants!" followed by the confiscation of all what that land could give and, in 1922, confiscation of the land itself, its nationalization), Russian peasantry responded with armed resistance in several regions, the toughest and longest of which was the Antonov uprising in the Tambov region in 1920-1921." 24 A person's personal data and origin were diligently studied, since it was thought that behavior is determined by background. 25 "Historians do not have a common opinion on the causes of the 1930s famine, if it was just due to a very poor harvest, or with the poor harvest being a secondary reason, while the primary one was an excessively aggressive state-sponsored campaign against rich peasants, all-out collectivization, confiscation of crops, etc.," (Izvestia, No 218, 2006).
22

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

96

cuted. Others fled. The Russian population of Harbin dropped by almost a million people over the period of several short months. A truly unique system of state terror was invented and installed in the Soviet Union. One-and-a-half million people were arrested during 1937-1938, and 700,000 of them were executed. The post-World War II repressions were relatively milder up to 1000 death sentences a year. Gulag (State Directorate of Camps) existed in the Soviet Union between 1934 and 1956, a network of labor camps in the Arctic, Far East, and other distant regions. According to Nikita Khrushchev's report at the 20th Congress of the CPSU in 1956, "Two or three senior officials of republics, territories, and regions were arrested; 848 delegates of the 17th Congress of the VKP(b) [All-Union Communist Party of Bolsheviks], out of approximately 2,000, were executed." To quote Sakharov, "At least 10 million to 15 million Soviet people died under torture or were executed in NKVD cells or in camps for exiled kulaks and their accomplices and in camps where inmates were not permitted correspondence. People died of cold, starvation, and backbreaking labor in the Norilsk and Vorkuta mines, at nuFamine of the 1930s: Dead bodies remained on the merous construction sites, and at logging sites.26. The fate of streets uncollected for weeks (from Izvestia, Novemthe family members of the repressed was also very severe27. ber 24, 2006) The system of control and slander reached a level where underground organizations and protests against the government were practically nonexistent. Terror as intimidation accomplished its goal in the literal sense. Minute shoots of resistance were rooted out at the barest suspicion, and campaigns against "counterrevolutionaries" were large-scale and ongoing. The level of "preventive" measures indicated the degree of totalitarianism in the country. It took time to expose the unviable nature of the system. Everything followed the pattern standard for totalitarian states in our era: one-man rule > repressions > loud praise of the regime > eagerness to build a strong army > threats to neighbors (and not only neighbors) > falling behind other countries > degeneration > collapse. The process was decades long. For two decades now Russia has been plagued by new waves of terrorism: certain factions in Chechnya aspiring for independence from Russia, clashes between businesses, and mob wars. The events in Chechnya are inseparable from the Islamic terrorism we have already discussed. Thousands die every year, and murders continue in all of the mentioned spheres. German terror in World War II. Responding to the guerrilla movement organized on the occupied territories of the Soviet Union during the Great Patriotic War, the German command launched a campaign of mass terror against the population sympathizing with the guerrillas and against the Soviet people in general. "War on Russia will be such as to admit no elements of lenience or nobility," Hitler instructed his senior officers several months before the war. "It will be a battle of ideologies and racial differences, to be fought with unprecedented merciless and unwavering ruthlessness. All officers must rid themselves of outdated ideologies The commissars are bearers of an ideology opposite to National Socialism, which is why commissars must be exterminated. German soldiers guilty of violation of international laws will be forgiven. Russia never participated in the Geneva Convention and thus lacks the corresponding rights." Part of Field Marshall Wilhelm Keitel's directive recommended "on the Fuhrer's order and in the light of the new tasks of political administration due to the polar opposite character of the political systems [of Russia and Germany E.A.], extermination without trial for all enemies, beginning with Jews, Gypsies, Communists, and Slavs When soldiers of the Wehrmacht commit an offense against noncombatants in the enemy population, criminal prosecution is not compulsory, not even when the deed constitutes a war crime or offense." This was essentially an instigation and advance pardon. Various excerpts from German documents read as follows: "the population of the northern regions of Russia, city dwellers in particular, will have to starve. They will have to die or migrate to the Siberia The ramifications of this policy include the destruction of industry and extinction of a great many human beings in the already thinly populated regions of Russia Total extermiA German communist was imprisoned by the Gestapo once and then by the NKVD. He was asked afterward where it had been worse. 'I was beaten in both cells, but the Gestapo wanted me to tell the truth, and the NKVD a lie,' he said." (poet Naum Korzhavin's memoirs Temptations of a Bloody Era.) 27 The protocols of the meeting of Politburo of the Central Committee of the VKP(b) on July 5, 1937, state that "the wives of the exposed traitors and rightTrotskyist spies must be imprisoned for at least 5-8 years Children are to be deported from Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev, coastal cities and cities in border regions." (A Long Time , Yegor Gaidar, p. 318).
26

Chapter 5

97

nation of the Russian people or Germanization of the part displaying features of the Nordic race. Between 20 and 30 million will starve in Russia this year. This is probably for the better, as some nations should be reduced." The Nazis simultaneously mounted campaigns of terror against the population of their own country and other countries of Europe. Slaves by the millions worked for the Reich; most of them died. The Cultural Revolution: Terror in China Lengthy campaigns of terror have taken place in many countries. One of the largest in the recent era, the so called Cultural Revolution in China, was initiated and headed by Chairman Mao Tse-Tung. In May 1966, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted an "important historic document" on the necessity of war against the potential restoration of capitalism and on changes in the party and state policy. Incited and encouraged by official propaganda, detachments of young Red Guards published a Manifesto later that month. The Manifesto and decisions of the Central Committee sealed the fate of China for decades to come. War on "fellow travelers of capitalism" was declared on the intelligentsia, educated people, and against specialists broadly considered, even those handling tasks of importance for the country as such. Young people dragged their teachers and professors onto the street to torture and murder them in public. The elderly were abused, forced to don ridiculous hats and spend hours on end on their knees, clubbed and splattered with boiling water, had their bones broken, and so on. (The victims' families were supposed to pay for cremation afterward.) Chinese teenagers were mobilized to defend their God Mao and exterminate everyone else. (The rate and radicalism of changes in behavior of the masses of the young people directed by the authorities illustrate the paragraphs laid out in Chapter 2 on the laws of mass consciousness and mob psychology.) Between 1966 and 1976, 300,000 scientists and people with university educations were sacked and under the slogan "Up to the mountains, down to the village" assigned to work at special collective farms, the socalled May 7 Staff Schools, starting when Mao signed a directive that abolished all differences between intellectual and physical labor. Repressions affected absolutely all tiers of government: Chairman Mao was purging the country of potential enemies and of whoever he did not find sufficiently loyal. Life in the country was thoroughly disrupted. According to official estimates, almost 100 million people became victims of the Cultural Revolution. The nightmare was halted only after 1975-76, when the Great Helmsman was growing infirm and losing his former clout (and would soon die). "Fomented by the authorities and encouraged by the leader, the Cultural Revolution was a period of unrest used by counterrevolutionary groups; it landed the party, the state, and all of the people in serious trouble," the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China admitted in its resolution "On Some Issues of the History of the Party" in 1981. China began a long process of restoration. The elderly Deng Xiaoping, one of the former leaders of the party who had been victimized in the Cultural Revolution, played the decisive role in the new period. He abandoned all the utopian projects and succeeded in introducing a new policy in the country a combination of Communist rule and elements of a free market economy. That time marked the beginning of a new era, the era of China's economic rise, which has continued to this day (see Chapter 8) The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict This is probably the lengthiest known conflict today. The population of the Judaic state that existed between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River between approximately 1300 BC and 70 AD eventually found itself scattered to the four winds in numerous wars. This was how the Roman province of Palestine first appeared, which Arabs would conquer in the seventh century of the new era. The crusaders established a Christian state there in the 12th century, but it did not last long., falling under Muslim rule (right until the 20th century), mostly as part of the Ottoman Empire. The idea of reestablishing a Jewish state was revived and actively discussed over 100 years ago. The first tens of thousands citizens of the future country moved to and settled in Palestine in the early 20th century, a period when its population amounted to approximately half a million Arabs. England formulated its position in the Balfour Declaration in 1917 as "His Majesty's Government views with favor the establishment in Palestine if a national home for the Jewish people, and will use its best endeavors to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine, or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country." Margaret Thatcher said in 2002 that "the moral right of both Jews and Arabs to the land known as Palestine is valid Territory for Jewish state is the question. Jewish immigration in the middle of the 1930s generated by Nazi harassment made the problem all the more pressing."

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

98

The British ruled Palestine after World War I (under a mandate issued by the League of Nations in 1922). With the British restricting immigration, Jews resorted to terrorist methods of struggle with them on occasion. The British mandate for Palestine was annulled in 1947, and the UN took over. The UN divided Palestine into more or less equal Jewish and Arab states in November of that year. Palestinian representatives turned the idea down, while Jewish ones accepted. With the population influx from other countries increasing, immigrants came to almost a third of the population of Palestine in 1947. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fled the contested territories in 1947-48. The state of Israel was proclaimed on May 14, 1948, and five Arab states declared a war on it the following day. The armies of Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq invaded the territory of the new state, but encountered vicious resistance and decided to be content with dividing the territories the UN had set aside for Palestinian Arabs, while Israel took over some territories not specified by the UN resolutions. Disputes over Jerusalem, which had been the capital of the Judaic state almost three millennia ago, served to mount the tension. The UN General Assembly (November 29, 1947) pronounced Jerusalem an independent UN-run administrative unit, but the end of the Arab-Israeli war of 1948-49 saw the city divided into two parts. Its eastern part became Jordanian and the western Israeli. Defying a UN General Assembly resolution concerning the status of Jerusalem, the government of Israel in 1950 proclaimed its western part, which has the parliament and government located in it, the capital of Israel. Israel overran the eastern part of Jerusalem in June 1967 and proclaimed all of the city "the eternal and indivisible capital of Israel" in July 1980. When the Suez Crisis broke out in 1956, the Israeli army, along with British and French troops, invaded Egypt, but obeyed UN decisions and pulled out from the occupied territories. Conflicts of varying degrees of intensity with some Arab states continue even now. With financial and political backing from the United States, Israel built up its own modern economy and ensured impressive living standards for its population. The country now possesses advanced technology. The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) has confronted the new state. Established in 1964, it has the Arab countries' support28. The Soviet Union/Russia and other countries backed the warring sides to a greater or lesser extent at different times. The Soviet Union supported Israel at first, even slipping some arms shipments to it, but ended up assisting the PLO. With a strong army at its disposal, Israel inevitably won all the armed conflicts. Forestalling a combined attack by its neighbor Arab states, Israel won the Six Day War in June 1967 and enlarged its own territory. "War in the face of the threat of extermination by the ruthless and vastly outnumbering forces of the Arab coalition should be excused; but cruelty with regard to refugees and POWs, as well as the unlawful eagerness to settle territorial issues by sheer strength of arms, must be condemned," Andrey Sakharov said on the subject of this victory. Diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union/Russia were severed in 1967 and restored again in 1991. The Yom Kippur War took place in 1973. Egypt and Syria invaded Israel, but got the worst of it, Israel eventually coming to occupy parts of their territory. A breakthrough in the Arab-Israeli confrontation occurred in 1979 in the form of the Camp David Accords. Israel withdrew its troops from some occupied territories (the Sinai Peninsula) and restored the state border with Egypt. An analogous treaty between Israel and Jordan was signed in 1994. A joint Israel-PLO declaration and some additional accords were adopted in 1993. An agreement on broader Palestinian self-government in cities on the West Bank of the Jordan and on Israeli pullout was reached in 1994-95, which is how the Palestinian National Autonomy began. The outbursts of the Intifada (clashes with armed Palestinians) still continue on the territories remaining under Israel. In September 1993, when tension in the region abated for a time, then-Prime Minister of Israel Yitzhak Rabin summed up the conflict by saying, "I am telling you, Palestinians, that we are destined to share this land We, who fought you, Palestinians, are telling you now: no more blood and tears. We are like you people who want to build houses, plant trees, love, and live side by side with you, maintaining our dignity, displaying our sympathy as human beings, as free men. The time for peace has come." Israel designed and manufactured its own A-bomb, but in 1981 bombed out of existence the nuclear reactor the French were building in Iraq. In the recent years, in response to terrorist acts, Israel dealt precision bomb strikes killing Palestinian activists and raided Palestinian territories. Standing behind the Israeli-Arab conflict, which is largely a territorial dispute, are certain other countries which pursue their own geopolitical interests. The population of Israel at this point amounts to nearly 7.3 million, approximately 75.5% of it being Jews, 20.5% Arabs, and some 4% other ethnic groups. The Israelis have been using precise bombing, killing Palestinian activists, and raiding Palestinian territory by way of response to terrorist acts. Foreign world powers, each promoting its own geopolitical interests, are indirectly involved in the Arab-Israeli conflict, which is essentially a territorial dispute. As for the religious aspect of the conflict, it should be noted here that
28

Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Al-Aksa Martyrs' Brigade were established and began active operations later.

Chapter 5

99

sentially a territorial dispute. As for the religious aspect of the conflict, it should be noted here that Judaism and Islam, being monotheistic, are quite close to each other. Islam may even be considered a doctrine derived from Judaism. Four mediators (the UN, United States, Russia, and the EU) drew up a conflict resolution plan, the so-called Road Map, in 2003. It stipulated the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state by 2005. The Palestinians were supposed to take measures to put an immediate end to violence and initiate democratic changes. The Israelis were expected to withdraw their troops and people from the Gaza Strip, which had been occupied since 1967, and some settlements on the West Bank. A clause concerning removal of noncombatants to Israel was implemented, despite their vicious resistance29. The conflict exacerbated in July 2006 war in the north and south of the country at the same time. Israel tried to crush Hamas and Hezbollah and do away with their ability to launch missiles into a considerable part of its territory. The Islamic forces received help (weapons, finances, and manpower) from other Arab (and other Muslim) countries, first and foremost from Iran and Syria, while Israel had nearly unlimited help from the United States. Launching missiles from populated areas, Hezbollah turned out to be nearly invincible, even to the well-trained and -equipped Israeli army. Almost 900,000 Lebanese and 300,000 Israelis were forced to abandon their homes in the course of the war. In the late 2008 early 2009, Israel, after numerous demands to stop the continuing missile strikes at its territories, embarked on a massive attack of the Gaza Strip killing over one thousand of militants and destroying Hamas military infrastructures with the aim to put an end to missile bombing of its lands. As things stand today, many countries are rendering help for the restoration of the destroyed civilian infrastructures in the Gaza Strip. There is no saying at this point what turn the confrontation will take in another decade or two, much less in 30 or 50 years. Unfortunately, the antagonism is unlikely to decrease. By obtaining new military hardware, particularly weapons of mass destruction, the Islamic side will make life increasingly harder for Israel. The use of the weapons which are presently at the disposal or being developed by Iran and Pakistan might lead to a most dangerous scenarios of event development in the region. To a certain extent, Israel today is an outpost in the confrontation between the West and the world of Islam. Hostilities and diplomatic negotiations involving the world powers do little in terms of reducing the intensity of the conflict. The Conflict in Chechnya Chechnya became a part of Russia30 after extended vicious wars in the 19th century. When 1917 came and brought changes, the peoples of the Caucasus proclaimed their sovereignty six months before the October Revolution. One might say that the transformation of the Russian Empire began from the North Caucasus. Following the Revolution and establishment of the Soviet government, a Mountain Republic comprising several peoples of the Caucasus was established in 1921. The region was the most restive area in all of the Soviet Union for years. The Mountain Republic began to come apart along the seams mere months after its establishment, in September 1921. The Kabardinians were the first to cede, followed by the Balkars, Karachais, Cherkess, and Chechens. Ingushetia and Ossetia were the last to go, this happening in July 1924. Vladikavkaz, the capital city, remained in federal jurisdiction, but the Mountain Republic as such was abolished. The Kabardinians united with the Balkars. Karachayevo-Cherkessia, which had left the Mountain autonomy as a single unit, split into the Karachai region and Cherkess Autonomous District in 1926. Chechnya and Ingushetia were separate administrative units at first. They formed the Chechen-Ingush Autonomous Region in 1934 and the Chechen-Ingush Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic in 1936. Chechnya rebelled over a dozen times, with thousands participating in the insurrections. Power remained in the hands of teip (kinship clan) elders and religious leaders. The Chechens were deported to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in February Medal 1944 for "collaboration with the Germans." They were permitted to return to their "For the Conquest ancestral lands only in 1957, with the adoption of the law "On Rehabilitation of Reof Chechnya pressed Peoples." The Soviet Union eventually disintegrated, and a movement for and Dagestan" establishing a sovereign state appeared in Chechnya. Its parliament was formed and
Once a desert, the occupied territories were transformed into a flourishing oasis with high-tech industry. In removing the settlers to Israel, the state paid each family $400,000 worth of compensation and helped them settle in a new place. 30 Wars in the Caucasus and the annexation of Chechnya took more than 80 years.
29

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

100

president elected in 1991. A year later, Chechnya adopted a constitution and proclaimed independence. Russia withdrew its troops, leaving a great deal of military hardware in the republic. Enraged by discord and quarrels with Moscow, then-President of Chechnya Djokhar Dudaev disbanded the republic's parliament and introduced direct presidential rule in 1993. A true tragedy followed two Chechen Wars (one between 1994 and 1996 and the other from October 1999 to April 2009). Sent to Chechnya in 1994, the Russian army eventually fought its way to the capital city of Grozny. The battle for the city began late in that year. All major centers and settlements of Chechnya were under federal control by the middle of 1995. The Chechens responded by mounting a terrorist raid of unprecedented proportions and took hostages in the Russian town of Budennovsk. Acts of sabotage and terrorist acts continued, interspersed with occasional negotiations. The Khasavyurt Accords were signed in August 1996, along with a document titled "Joint Statement on the Principles of Relations between the Russian Federation and the Chechen Republic." The document promised Chechnya special status within Russia in 2001. Federal troops were withdrawn, leaving Chechnya de facto independent. The 21 months of the hostilities left thousands killed and tens of thousands. Grozny lay in ruins. Chechen field commanders came to power, fighting one another. Abduction of hostages became a lucrative business. Public executions became commonplace. Sharia law was proclaimed. Chechen detachments raided Dagestan in 1999. Explosions in apartment buildings in Moscow and other Russian cities followed. Russian retaliation a counterterrorism operation evolved into the Second Chechen War. The large Chechen units were defeated, and the conflict deteriorated into guerrilla warfare and terrorist acts: bombs exploded here and there; cars and checkpoints were attacked; Russian servicemen were murdered, along with Chechen officials of local administrations, policemen, and builders. Some noncombatants sympathized with the gunmen and provide hideouts. Foreign countries sent them weapons, money, and men across the southern borders. The federal forces responded with clean-up operations and arrests of gunmen and "suspects." The intensity of the struggle dropped in winter and flared up again once the weather became warm. Similar events occurred in other republics of the Caucasus now and again. To a certain extent, they have been fueled by mass unemployment, the low income of the population, corruption, inefficient social policy, and inadequate educational level of young people31. Add here events of the not-so-distant past that are still fresh in memory the deportation in 1944. The involvement of foreign countries (Arab ones) and foreign Islamic terrorist groups made the conflict, to a certain extent, international. Their annual operational budget amount is tens of millions of dollars. As for manpower, new recruits who joined the resistance usually were young men who perceived no future for themselves. There are many even outside Chechnya for instance, in Dagestan32 and other adjacent areas33. A great many gunmen joined the resistance as teenagers. In April 2009 in Moscow it was officially announced the "counterterrorist operation" in Chechnya was over. The operation lasted for nearly 10 years, beginning from October 1999. Plans call for withdrawing most of the troops and police formations from Chechnya to the total of 60,000-80,000 servicemen34. The main problems of the North Caucasus include the conflict between Georgia and Abkhazia and South Ossetia, contradictions between North Ossetia and Ingushetia and the instability in Dagestan. Situation in the region will largely depend on the situation in Russia and the extent of influence civil society manages to achieve here. As things stand today, the North Caucasus republics can be characterized as semi-traditional societies, industrially degraded with degraded systems of education and elements of patriarchal relations. If modernization in Russia is successful, the changes will ultimately reach to the Caucasus. Terrorism Becomes a Global Problem Terrorist acts are a means to an end for representatives of various movements victims of colonialism and state terror, separatists, promoters of ideas who are unable for one reason or other to put up an open fight. Political terrorists and their mentors aim for maximum effect. To accomplish that, they try to kill as many innocents as possible in a crowded place, preferably with prominent public figures among them, or take hostages. This receives broad media coverage. Almost like a natural force, violence is getting more and more intense. To"Why is the Wahhabi ideology is embraced here so readily? It is not difficult for an immature Muslim to become confused when he sees lawlessness all around, when officials steal, and when the people are impoverished" (Suleiman Uladiev, deputy of the People's Assembly of Dagestan, commenting on the similar situation in nearby Dagestan; from the archives of Valery Vyzhutovich, Izvestia, June 30, 2005). 32 The situation in Dagestan was quite complicated and volatile as well. Almost 30 terrorist acts took place in the republic in 2005. More than 40 lawenforcement officers were murdered. A major gang paralyzed the city of Nalchik in October 2005. Conflicts of varying intensity in the meantime are spreading to encompass Ingushetia, Ossetia, and other areas of the Caucasus. 33 According to latest information (released in 2009), hiding (and active?) in Chechnya and Dagestan are about 500 and over 100 gunmen, respectively. 34 According to available data, the death toll of the Chechen war equals about 4,000 servicemen and approximately the same number of militants (according to other sources, the latter number is five times higher).
31

Chapter 5

101

day, it allows even small groups with meager resources at their disposal to challenge world powers and change the life of the world. The unfolding conflict is a mixture of confrontations between codes of ethics and faiths, between conservatism and liberalism, and between traditionalism and modernism. Anything goes for radical Islam, which does not care about the moral principles of the West. It does not even balk at cruel actions against the civilian population. Democratic countries have no choice but resort to unusual methods as well. These include preventive military strikes, mistreatment of POWs, and abandonment of other internationally accepted principles. This invariably reduces the level of civilization. Hundreds of millions of people do not feel secure, and this feeling of insecurity affects all aspects of life, from politics to economics to culture. Men like bin Laden have proven themselves capable of challenging world powers and coalitions35. His recorded statements attract as much attention as those of national leaders, and U.S. former president Bush and other leaders were forced to protect themselves (sometimes even hide) from small terrorist groups. Islamic terrorist groups are actively using modern-day means of information and communication, such as media and the Internet (with the number of websites ran by extremists numbering many thousands), for propaganda, preparation of terrorist acts and enhancing their effect. World terrorist organizations. Data compiled and released several years ago indicated that almost 6,000 terrorist acts throughout the world in the last decade had killed and wounded more than 25,000 people. Since then their intensiveness has grown enormously. Some of the major terrorist organizations and/or trends have been the assassinations of Turkish ambassadors and other officials following the genocide of the Armenians (state terrorism) in Turkey; Muslim Brothers (since 1928) in Egypt; Zionists in Palestine against the British in the 1940s; in Algeria, against the French in the 1950s and today for the clerical order; the Red Brigade in Italy in the 1970s; Basques in Spain (the ETA, since the 1960s); Al-Gamaa al-Islamia in Egypt since the late 1970's; the IRA in Ireland against the British (since the early 20th century); the Grey Wolves in Turkey (the 1970s); kamikazes in the Japanese military in World War II36; the Japanese Red Army since the early 1970s; Aum Shinrikyo in Japan (with divisions abroad), established in 1987; death squads in El Salvador and Guatemala; the National Liberation Army of Columbia; right-wing terrorists in Chile before the coup in 1973; the Shining Path in Peru; the Sri Lankan Tamil Tigers; Corsican nationalists in France; the Red Army Faction in Germany; the Kurdish movement in the Middle East (Ansar al-Islam and other organizations); Jamaa Islamia in Indonesia; Hezbollah in Lebanon since the 1980s; Islamic Jihad since the late 1970s; Hamas since 1987; Al-Qaeda since 1988; the Palestine Liberation Front since 1967; the Islamic Liberation Party, established in 1953 and spreading its influence and forming its cells in the new sovereign countries of Central Asia; and terrorist acts in India and Pakistan over border territories each country demands as its own. Incidentally, since recently Al-Qaeda and Taliban have often joined forces while acting in the neighborhood of the Afghani-Pakistan border. One of the prime targets of international terrorism, the United States, has not been immune to internal (domestic) terror: the Ku Klux Klan against blacks and Black Panthers against white racists; bombings of abortion clinics; letters with anthrax powder; and serial killers. Four US presidents have been assassinated. State terror cruel and unlawful actions of the authorities and mass murder of the citizenry have taken place more than once in Germany, the Soviet Union, Cambodia, Uganda, Argentina, Chile, and other countries in the 20th century. Some terrorist organizations are no longer small groups of only a few fanatical conspirators. They have evolved into networks with division of labor, workshops, warehouses, printing works, laboratories, hideouts, hospitals, and lucrative business ventures. Such organizations often operate on two levels political (or overt) and militarized (or clandestine). Money to fund terrorist activities is obtained in different ways: trafficking in illicit jewelry or drugs or other forms of business, counterfeit money, and donations from sympathizers. There is frequently a direct connection between drug production volume and the frequency of terrorist acts and intensity of regional conflicts. Neither do terrorist organizations balk at holding up banks, racketeering legitimate businesses, or taking hostages for ransom. Their agents infiltrate state structures, industries, and financial institutions. Funds for terrorist acts are regularly raised by charitable organizations: donations (zakjat) are something no faithful Muslim may omit; part of the legally raised sums is channeled into continuation of the jihad by radical organizations37. Vast sums are raised in wealthy Muslim countries. Islamic terrorism is thus sponsored from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Qatar, and other places. Terrorism organized by states may reach an even lar35 As the CIA director recently stressed, the Osama bin Laden's terrorist organization is still posing a most serious threat to the United States. "Al-Qaeda's influence extends over Africa and the Middle East, but the biggest threat comes from the Afghani-Pakistan border." Commenting on the same problem, Russian academician Renad Sagdeyev noted: "It is definitely impossible for bin Laden to manufacture an A-bomb in his caves. Another matter is that certain countries, such as North Korea, Libya, Iraq and Iran, are, in fact, capable of going nuclear through the development of their nuclear reactors." 36 5,000 kamikaze pilots and 80 "live torpedoes." 37 Unofficial channels are used in transactions. Banks, the mail, and so on are bypassed. A phone call from a trusted or other means of communication usually suffices.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

102

ger scope Iran is training shahids by the tens of thousands, later to be sent to help Shia terrorists in Iraq and other countries. On the one hand, there are sponsors who support terrorists. On the other, people in the upper echelons of terrorist movements may count on some legitimate income, carrying out financial operations acting on the basis of insider information on, say, an action such as the terrorist attack against New York. "Underworld cartels" and organized crime are often regarded as subjects of terrorism as well. There are people who have been involved in terrorist activities for decades. Some of these "professionals" at some point in the past entered official politics and have become acclaimed figures on a state and even international scale. Examples of this can be found in the histories of Israel, Palestine, and other countries. Revolutionaries preparing coups also do not hesitate to use terrorist methods. Megaterrorism. Terrorism entered a new dimension on the threshold of the 20th and 21st centuries. The "progress" made in this sphere consists in the destruction of several-storied buildings with people in them, not to mention the use of sophisticated gear and means of transportation driven by shahids automobiles filled with high explosives and fully fueled aircraft (tons and tons of fuel being needed to travel thousands of kilometers). Hundreds and thousands may be perish in a single terrorist act today, and the "progress" does not stop here. What next? Destruction of major structures (bridges, tunnels, dams, energy and water supply systems), interference with life-support control systems, the use of weapons of mass destruction? Preparations for precisely such things are known to be under way. The efficiency of prevention of such terrorist acts is the question. The paradigm of suicide bombers involves the idea that not only suicide is permissible, but also simultaneous mass murder; therefore, extrapolating from this, we can presume that groups of people may appear one day who will be ready to eliminate not only big cities, but the whole world. Terrorists have already tested means of chemical and germ warfare sarin in Japan (the Aum Shinrikyo) and anthrax in the United States. There are reasons to believe that terrorist organizations are thinking of deploying ricin, botulin, and other substances. Information concerning the technologies used in manufacture of weapons of this kind is being classified and removed from the Internet, and the security of installations is being increased. The US Bioterrorism Act of 2002 stipulates measures needed to repel biological attacks, stiffen control over hazardous substances, etc. Analogous steps are stipulated in the "Concept of Biological Security of Russia" adopted that same year for the period until 2012. At the same time, the problem of science-intensive terrorism is becoming quite pressing. This concerns the use of the latest achievements and discoveries for destruction. The appearance of even more dangerous and less controllable kinds of weapons is possible in the next decades or even years (see other chapters). The media avidly discuss the prospects of nuclear terrorism. "Statements of Al-Qaeda leaders and their teaching aids indicate that they are interested in weapons capable of killing a great deal of people in a small amount of time. Fortunately, their ambitions exceed their capacities for the time being, but these fantasies include plans to generate even worse bloodshed," says American political scientist Jerry Jenkins, while bin Laden himself asserts that "Laying hands on weapons of mass destruction is the religious duty of every Muslim." The United States has resolved to design and deploy a ballistic missile defense system that will intercept single launches from the territories of "rogue states" or missiles launched by terrorists. (A ballistic missile defense capable of intercepting mass launches is a matter of a more distant future.) "The end of the Cold War made an all-out exchange of nuclear strikes between leading powers unlikely," Margaret Thatcher has said. "Considerably more likely is a launch from a rogue state of a missile or two with a nuclear or chemical warhead against a major city of ours. North Korea is already making and selling missiles that have flown over Japan during tests and that may reach the United States across the ocean. Unauthorized launch is another possibility that always exists. That is when a ballistic missile defense will be our only hope, even though there are always preemptive strikes to destroy the military power of rogue states that I do not rule out." It is common knowledge that a weapon of mass destruction may be delivered to the target by civilian means of transportation, carried in a suitcase, or put together in an underground laboratory on site. Some military experts in the West call the shahids the ultimate delivery means, the potential of which matches that of "strategic weapons." International organizations have officially branded "shahid attacks on the civilian population" as a crime against humanity. The level of civilization is such today that people concentrate in megapolises vulnerable to weapons of mass destruction. A sophisticated weapon weighing several dozens of kilograms may pose a danger to millions (this is a nasty paradox of our era; a mere century or so ago this would have been unthinkable). One of the means of biological terrorism is the spraying of aerosols with pathogens or toxins above busy locations, in building or metro air shafts, or in water supply systems.

Chapter 5

103

Biokamikazes people infected with a contagious disease with a lengthy incubation period roaming a major city38 are another problem. There is the danger that nuclear bombs manufactured in North Korea, Pakistan or Iran will be bought by somebody. Coups and power crises are typical of Pakistan, and it may so happen that control will be lost one fine day. As a matter of fact, it may even happen in some other countries. The international community discovered in early 2004 that Abdul Khan, the scientist behind Pakistan's nuclear program, had set up an international network for production of the equipment needed in manufacture of materials for nuclear bombs, first for clandestine operations for his native country and then for transfer of classified technologies abroad39. In 1989-90, Abdul Khan turned over elements of centrifuges and data on their more advanced forms to Iran, Libya, and, perhaps, North Korea. (Where the latter was concerned, it may have been a trade the data in return for missile technology.) Khan was eventually stopped. He repented and was pardoned by the president of Pakistan. An experiment was run in the United States in the middle of the 1960s. Relying on open sources of information, three US college graduates designed an A-bomb similar to that dropped on Nagasaki. Making education unavailable to more than a billion citizens of the Islamic countries is a sheer impossibility. Moreover, there is nothing preventing the latter from using specialists from Western countries who share their religious and ideological views. It is always possible as well to buy the services of specialists or to kidnap them and make them work under pressure the potential scenarios are as numerous as are methods of brainwashing. Suffice it to recall how many citizens of the West imparted classified information to the communist bloc in the Cold War. A so-called "dirty nuclear bomb" (or radiological) may become a terrorist weapon. It involves ordinary high explosives that disperse radioactive materials. Explosion of such a bomb will leave a large area contaminated, necessitating the evacuation of the population and quarantine. The availability of the components needed for such a bomb allows for their purchase or theft: radioactive cobalt and other substances are widely used in medicine and industry. No particular skills are required to put together a dirty bomb, save probably for the knowledge of how hot substances must be handled. (Even this, however, is not a problem for a would-be shahid or misled accomplice.) Other options include the theft of nuclear ordnance or weaponsgrade materials, acts of sabotage at a nuclear power plant or some other nuclear facility with the aim of fomenting a catastrophe like the one at Chernobyl. With nuclear sites spread all over the world, the possibility of some such scenario cannot be ruled out40. Examinations and special drills in the United States show that there are nearly always loopholes in defense and protection systems. Analogous exercises are run in Russia and presumably other countries with nuclear weapons in their arsenals. Clandestine attempts to buy nuclear materials have been thwarted more than once. The countries of the West are helping with money to improve the security of nuclear sites in Russia. Nuclear and other potentially hazardous technologies are spreading throughout the world at a faster or slower rate, regardless of all attempts to prevent this from happening. Fears of proliferation of nuclear material and technologies reached their peak when the Soviet Union disintegrated. All nuclear weapons from other republics were safely shipped to Russia, but nuclear industry enterprises and materials were left in the newly formed sovereign states. In July 2005, the UN General Assembly adopted a convention against nuclear terrorist acts on Russia's initiative. The document stipulates counterterrorist security of civilian and military nuclear installations and measures preventing terrorist acts with the use of self-made nuclear devices. This is the first universal treaty aimed at prevention of terrorist acts of mass destruction. The document opens a vista of opportunities for strengthening of counterterrorism cooperation and interaction under the UN auspices. Large cruise liners, tankers, and other ships are vulnerable to terrorists. The existing enlargement trend in connection with apartment buildings and office centers (such as the World Trade Center in New York!) is leading to appearance of ever-more-attractive targets. Ensuring safety of flights is another nearly unsolvable problem. Airplane construction does not allow for a considerable margin of safety. In other words, aircraft cannot survive even a fairly small local explosion. We know now that one's shoes (or clothing) may be fash-

While preparing for war, the Nazis contemplated the use of germ warfare and other means of mass destruction. Fortunately, they never had a chance to use them broadly (they were short of time or lacked the capacity). Hermann Rauschning, an adviser to Adolf Hitler who broke up with him at a later date, quoted the Fuhrer as saying in the 1930s that, "The enemy will be infected with bacteria even before the war it will be done by agents, innocent-looking tourists. We can find such men in every country. We do not even have to buy their services. Their ambition and blindness, ignorance and party discord drive them to us. We will have enough volunteers prepared to sacrifice their own lives Several weeks will pass before the size of the epidemic becomes clear. There is no difference between a slow death behind barbed wire and death throes induced by gases or bacteria. I believe that biological wars have a promising future." 39 Abdul Khan abandoned his position with the Uranium Enrichment European Consortium and escaped with blueprints of isotope-separation centrifuges. 40 There are about 440 nuclear power plans and 300 nuclear reactors in the world, plus approximately 250 nuclear powered ships, submarines, icebreakers, and aircraft carriers.
38

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

104

ioned of dangerous materials, or high explosives may be made of initially harmless liquids mixed together or swallowed in tiny containers. There are may ways to bring high explosives on board a plane. Sophisticated weapons like portable SAM launchers (Stingers, Iglas, Strelas, and so on) also pose a danger. A single man with a SAM launcher can take out a plane with hundreds of passengers (800-passenger planes will be a thing of the near future). Granted the volume of passenger and cargo traffic, neither is it easy to secure the territories surrounding airports. It stands to reason that continuation of work on such weapons will allow them to target even higher altitudes. As things stand, it does not difficult to mount a missile launcher on a car. Sea-going vessels have been relatively safe so far, but Japan used manned torpedoes against enemy ships in World War II, and dolphins were trained to serve as living torpedoes in the Cold War. According to the RAND Corporation Year 2008 Report "terrorism is gradually becoming an effective strategic weapon; targets, weapons, methods, etc. are chosen proceeding from the international situation realities and taking possible strategic consequences into account. The aim is to trigger some kind of a crisis." Terrorists may also decide to use the mass media's hunger for sensation and scandal. If a media outlet receives a telephone call claiming that a suitcase with a powerful bomb in it (even a nuclear bomb, perhaps) is planted somewhere in a city, panic with truly unpredictable consequences will certainly follow. Evacuation drills (without weapons of mass destruction in the story, that is) do take place on occasion in organizations, schools, airports, and so on after receiving calls about planted bombs either from actual offenders or planned by the authorities. The attacker is usually at an advantage. He chooses the weapon, the site, and the time to strike. The defender has to be ready for attack at any moment, with weapons and site dictated by the enemy. It is clear that this requires much more in terms of effort and finances; moreover, it is a problem that does not always have a solution. Evacuation of major cities in emergencies is a problem of staggering complexity: panic and traffic jams will extend it into dozens or even hundreds of hours, so that living on foot would probably be easier and faster. How the growing terrorism can be stopped. The terrorist war of the last several years compelled the United States to strike back. Other members of the international community backed the war on terrorism, which the White House itself called a "global struggle with extremism." The war aims to wipe out terrorist groups and eventually undermine terrorist ideology and support. Experts point out that terrorism is a corollary of deep processes in modern civilization, unevenness of development, and certain mistakes and miscalculations. At the same time, it is a manifestation of a more common malady: extremism. The daily propaganda of the cult of violence in the media may be exacerbating these tendencies. Afghanistan and Iraq have been occupied. Attempts are being made to alter the mass consciousness of their populations and change the state systems in these countries so as to bring them closer to the advanced countries of the world41. The idea is to establish an enclave of democracy and change other Islamic countries with its help. This would require a radical break with the previous ideology and way of life and introduction of a new economic and administrative arrangement42. The Eastern mentality has several peculiar properties: the worldview is definitely religious, and considerable importance is attached to clan or tribal ties. Time will show how possible the formation of a new democratic state with help and control from abroad, so-called "coerced democratization," is. Unlike the populations of Germany and Japan, which accepted the policies of denazification and economic modernization in the wake of World War II without so much as a murmur of protest, the population of the Middle Eastern countries does not exactly support the Americans' efforts to change their traditional way of life. One has to be able not to succumb to propaganda that claims that "Terror on the part of a defender of his motherland and his rights is justified Everyone has the right to become a living bomb and blow himself up Hundreds of theologians teach us that this martyrdom is actually one of the highest forms of the jihad in the name of Allah" (Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi). Islamic terrorists are motivated, among other things, and by complete refusal to give up their old way of life in favor of an alien one forced upon them (particularly one with so many vices). This is accompanied by awareness of their own backwardness and injured self-esteem. The slogan of "the struggle against foreign occupiers" is broadly used. Some specialists call Islamic terrorism a developmental disease of maturing Islamic society. Those involved in the struggle are terrorists for some and freedomfighters for others. The memory of the defeats inflicted on the United States in Vietnam and on the Soviet Un41 Difficult processes are under way for installing different political and economic systems, determine relations between ethnic groups, and define the part of religion and women in new society. 42 "The triumph of freedom in Iraq will encourage democratic reformers from Damascus to Tehran and instill hope in all of the problematic region," George W. Bush said in November 2005 ("Strategy of Triumph"). In August 2006, his tone was altogether different, "Permit the Middle East to move in the direction it has been moving before September 11, and our children a generation from now will have to deal with terrorist states and radical dictators possessing nuclear weapons." Then-United States Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, was decidedly pessimistic when she said, "I just hope that Iraq will not become our worst catastrophe since Vietnam."

Chapter 5

105

By way of the last resort, sanctions against a shahid's family are used. The principle of collective accountability is invoked. If terrorists murder civilians, then sanctions should be imposed against their own families and clans: "Every family must remember that if it should it raise a terrorist, then they all will become outcasts Their rights and privileges may and should be infringed upon" (Muhammedgali Huzin, Deputy Supreme Mufti of Russian Muslims). This of course collides with the principles of democracy. At the same time, from the standpoint of martial law, in which rules and laws are normally bent, it is fine. Israel responds to terrorist acts harshly, tearing down shahids' houses and inflicting harm on their families. Its counterterrorism operations, however, fail to restore peace in the Middle East. It is common knowledge that Great Britain was unable to exterminate the IRA for nearly 60 years despite all its efforts. West Germany was similarly unable to do away with its Red Army Faction, and Spain with the ETA. A number of countries, including Russia, were compelled to enact special laws on combating terrorism that provided for harsh measures, including elimination of airliners with passengers on board if they are hijacked by terrorists. To a certain extent, the problems the world is facing today are a corollary of the shortsightedness of the world powers' strategic services. Busy with the Cold War confrontation, designing and making powerful weapons, the world powers overlooked the possibility of a threat posed by third countries, the threat of acts of sabotage and training of shahids. In other words, the world powers failed to notice the possibility of danger from the direction of enemies they considered weak and discovered the need for intelligence too late. As a matter of fact, the world powers even shipped weapons to these countries. Installing agents in the Islamic world, just to be on the safe side, would not have cost much, but attention was focused on the "Communist camp" and confrontation with it. The world powers lacked the foresight to look ahead and to try and envisage future phases of development, or, to be more exact, that this might be necessary never even occurred to them. The worst mistake that comes down to that the world powers never bothered to help the backward countries with development of their economies, with democratization, and so on. We know now that this was the worst mistake they could have made43. The Cold War cost taxpayers trillions of dollars, spent on a confrontation with what the Americans themselves now admit was a "sane enemy." Indeed, it was not jihadi warriors who ruled the Soviet Union, but people who regarded "unacceptable damage" as a deterrent. The death of a terrorist's countrymen is not a factor that has any bearing on their plans. Undue complacency and slowness in perception of the danger and realization that it needs countering usually result in dire consequences. History itself should have taught us. "The West failed to respond to Hitler's ascension to power and got a war in 1939. FDR did not care about the might of militarist Japan until Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941 The threat of terrorism has been growing these last 20 years, and America's reaction remained inadequate" (Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice).

ion in Afghanistan is still fresh, and there have been many similar examples in the previous century. Developments in Iraq today could certainly be better, and in Afghanistan the Taliban are reconsolidating and become more and more active. By consolidating and refusing to succumb to panic, society itself may help with uprooting the undesirable tendencies. The scope of confrontation with the new threats and challenges may actually equal the activity of the Cold War era. "The war for hearts and minds" is one of the principal fronts of the struggle with terrorism. Mobilization of intellectual potential and its active use are needed (specialists on the East, historians, politicians, and propagandists). An active ideological campaign is a necessity. "Young men were brainwashed into thinking that bloody jihad the murder of people in terrorist acts--is their road to Paradise; that it is good, not bad," Tony Blair said after the terrorist acts in London in July 2005. "We must counter it. We must do so despite the difficulties. We are involved in a dialogue with other countries, Muslim and non-Muslim alike, over mobilization of the moderate and true voice of Islam at the international level. It is happening all over the world, and we have to start thinking about how this process should be coordinated, made public, and continued." Javier Solana, one of the senior EU officials, said that "People grossly dissatisfied with their position are the nutrient medium of terrorism. If their demands are fair and if there is a chance to show that we care, then care should be taken." On the one hand, rooting out terrorism completely is extremely difficult, just as rooting out corruption completely is difficult; on the other hand, even small terrorist groups with weapons of mass destruction at their disposal may inflict unacceptable damage. A solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would a positive factor, without which a solution to the broader problem is hardly possible.

"If we want security, we should help our neighbors in the East to raise living standards, get closer to the benefits of civilization and thus make them calmer, free and safe for Europe and America. The Americans changed their policy pursued for decades. Whenever a dictator maintained security in the region and remained loyal to the United States, he was let alone. No more" (Condoleezza Rice).

43 The problem of foreseeing the future and the necessity to invest money and efforts in its stability is discussed in the following chapters. Narrow-mindedness and the inability (and disinclination) to think in terms of the future and plan our development in advance is a defect that may cost us dearly. Using past experience, available wealth, administrative means, and human potential, we could and should consider options for the life of mankind not for the next 3-5 years but for the next 20-30 and more years and do whatever is in our power to direct it. There can be no doubts whatsoever that we should be doing much more than we have had so far to ensure a stable and lengthy existence of civilization. Granted that the task is enormously difficult, a great deal of means to this end are nevertheless clear (see Chapter 18).

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

106

"Islamic values do not differ from the values of Christianity, Judaism, or any other leading confession. Extremists are trying to usurp our religion, but they do not represent Islam. The overwhelming Muslim majority should announce that extremists have nothing to do with Islam and begin a struggle with them. We should make impossible situations when a fatwa precedes literally every terrorist act in the world" (King of Jordan Abdalla II, August 2005). President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai is a dedicated enemy of Islamic religious education. He urges the countries of the world to close madrasahs. "Instead of teaching children tolerance as genuine Islam requires, Islamic schools teach them hatred of other religions. Making terrorists is what they are essentially doing." Here are some excerpts from speeches at the conference Islam and Democracy that took place in Istanbul in April 2004. "Most Sharia laws facilitate development of democratic society" (Al-Dar Kunti, imam from Indonesia). "Absence of democracy in Islamic countries does not have anything to do with Islam as such. Everything depends on the policy of the authorities. Islam the religion has respect for the rights of women. It does not prevent their participation in the political life like men" (Mohand Lansar, minister of the Moroccan Cabinet). "We should put an end to the debates over the compatibility of Islam and democracy and get down to business: the introduction of democratic principles in Islamic countries" (Mehmet Aidyn, minister of the Turkish Cabinet). "Step one to implementation of the democratic reforms will be close cooperation with the West and improvement of the curricula (Ahmed Kabba, president of Sierra Leone). Muslim leaders who attended the conference in Istanbul were extremely critical of US "Middle East initiatives." They were convinced that Islamic countries would find their own way to democracy, one through reforms in the system of education. "We are Muslims. We have our own opinion on the reforms that is all right from the standpoint of our religion" (Mervan Muashir, ex-foreign minister of Jordan). The Islamic Solidarity Games in 2005 were perhaps an important event from this point of view. Almost 10,000 athletes from the Organization of the Islamic Conference participated. Representatives of more than 50 countries came to Saudi Arabia then. Christians were welcome at these Little Olympics, but women were admitted only as spectators. Separate tournaments in Tehran were arranged for women for the fourth time. Women from 40 countries participated, some of them from countries that do not actually belong with the world of Islam Japan, Germany, Great Britain, and Georgia. Russian representatives were also present45. The tournament's motto "Islam Is Peace" was supposed to "demonstrate Muslims' unity and brotherhood to the world." Next Islamic Solidarity Games are scheduled to take place in Iran in 2009, and women will be admitted to participate in the competitions in six kinds of sports. Radio Liberty aired a story on US Muslims' opposition to the actions of Islamic extremists on September 4, 2006. An excerpt from the broadcast runs as follows: "Salam al-Marayati of the Los Angeles Muslim Public Affairs Council: We want to show that American Muslims are not strangers, they are Americans and patriots of their country who fear terrorist acts. We want to show that there is no need to fear or hate us.' Launched in 2004, the national counterterrorism campaign encourages Muslims to cleanse their communities of extremists, speak up against violence, condemn terrorism, and cooperate with law-enforcement agencies. Hundreds of mosques all over America joined the campaign. The Council on American-Islamic Relations, a human rights group, issued a petition titled Not In The Name of Islam' condemning terrorists. Hundreds of thousands of American Muslims signed the petition."

A great deal will depend on the actions of the League of Arab States and the Islamic Eight (Egypt, Nigeria, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Malaysia, with a total population of 800 million) and on whether or not the countries of the East coordinate their efforts. Some experts assume that Muslim countries may consolidate or unite under some strong country (or strong leader; Iran?) and this may lead to a war (or peace?) with the West44. Some Muslim countries do show signs of changes for the better. The legislatures in Bahrain and Kuwait are now elected. Women participate in elections in Qatar. There is a woman in the Cabinet of Kuwait. Some professions are available to women in Saudi Arabia, and the idea of elections is widely discussed in that country. Attempts to put women on a par with men are being made in Morocco. Some steps toward democracy were taken in Indonesia. Even Libya is angling for rapprochement with the West. The pace of progressive changes, however, is slow, far behind the rate at which the rest of the world is changing. "The Arab intelligentsia is upset by justification of cruelty because it smears the repute of Islam. At the same time, they condemn the US policy and demand an end to corruption and the dictatorial way of their rulers" (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2005).

Relations between religions and cultures on both sides in the conflict are of paramount importance. Pope Benedict XVI has stated that "Speaking of the superiority of one culture or other is wrong, because the sociocultural importance of different civilizations changes at an empirical level in the course of history The problem of establishing a dialogue between Islam and Christianity is rooted to a certain extent in the fact that Islam lacks a single religious leader. Islam is a large and heterogeneous religious community. All the same, there are centers of religious authority in Islam with which the Catholic Church could begin a dialogue."
The arms expenditures of the Middle Eastern countries have been growing. They amounted to $56 billion (in 2003 prices) in 2004. Two referee teams composed of women were involved . One made sure that the rules were observed, and the other that Sharia law was abided by.

44 45

Chapter 5

107

Some excerpts from a speech by George W. Bush in August 2006 are: "Terrorism is based on a distortion of proud religions Modern sources of terrorism include political alienation and impossibility to realize ambitions in ones own country, ignorance, lack of information about the world, and predominance of an ideology that justifies murder. Urgent counterterrorist measures include preventive strikes at terrorist networks; prevention of the falling of weapons of mass destruction into the hands of irresponsible, criminal states and terrorist groups, prevention of control of terrorists over these states, control aimed to establish a bridgehead for strikes at countries of the free world."
The following actions could facilitate resolution of the problem: Agreement on a peaceful solution the consent of leaders of the Arab states and religious leaders, or the Council of Ulemas, and all (or the majority) of confessions and sects to withdraw support of terrorism and disarmament of terrorist groups; Activeness of liberal-minded representatives of the Islamic elite and immigrants from Eastern countries in the West (most of them living there for generations); Denouncement of the slogan of global Islamic conquest; release of an appropriate fatwa and annulment of contradicting fatwas as colliding with the Islamic laws, promulgation of a progressive understanding of Islam as opposed to that of the fundamentalists; Universal agreement on nonacceptance of all and any hostilities; Drawing-up of a counterterrorism charter the signatories of which will pledge not to make their territories available to extremist groups; Suspension of preaching and upbringing of the young by belligerent Muslims and, on the contrary, assistance to those who promote peaceful interpretation of Islam. All confessions and religious organizations should emphasize tolerance and nonacceptance of violence by way of elimination of the religious foundations of terrorism.

Similar and other recommendations were put forth in reports at the World Community Against Globalization of Crime and Terrorism international conferences organized by the World Anticriminal and Antiterrorist Forum in Moscow in 2001, 2004, 2006 and 2007.46, 47.

The colossal and poorly advanced Islamic world has entered a new era, and its appearance there resulted in a crisis the resolution to which requires much effort. Conflict settlement should be accompanied by commitments from the Western community to provide more effective aid to the poorly advanced countries and to combine efforts with them in reorganization of the world. In putting an end to terrorism, the international community will have to deal with potential terrorists and address the political, economic, and social problems that generate it. Universally accepted and supported methods of coexistence of different states and civilizations should be found. This peaceful method of conflict resolution will have a better chance of succeeding if the warring sides become convinced that escalation will put their existence at stake. (Always assuming that leaders of terrorist movements want to live, along with their families.) *** Prevention of international conflicts is one of the central problems of our time. Posing threat are conflicts between Israel and Palestine, Iran and its antagonists in the Middle East, contradictions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, between China and Taiwan, and between North Korea and its southern neighbors. Stable tendencies that would lead to their abating are absent, for the time being. One or both sides in each conflict possesses nuclear weapons. Other conflicts flare up on occasion. With the current framework of relations remaining unchanged and with inevitable deterioration of conflicts into outright hostilities, unpleasant developments may be awaiting our planet.

From the resolution of the Third World Forum Against Crime and Terrorism: "The international community needs unified laws on terrorism prevention, design of measures against extremism as a forerunner of terrorism, and participation of all civil society in solution to the problem. A special UN session should be convened to discuss globalization-terrorism connection." 47 There are other opinions on the war on terrorism: "It is necessary to sever contacts with a dozen countries that support terrorism and at the same time coexist with other countries. They maintain diplomatic relations with others, they trade with them, and participate in international conferences. Suspend all contacts with them and close the embassies. That is a cheap and fast way." (Izvestia, July 27, 2006).
46

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

108

Chapter 6

Global Crisis the Cold War The confrontation between the Soviet Union and the United States (and their respective allies) from 19461989 is frequently referred to as the Cold War, probably because it differed considerably from World Wars One and Two. The antagonists did all they could to strengthen their positions designing and manufacturing new weapons and securing new allies in the world. There were military bases on almost every continent. Short or extended frontal clashes occurred in various regions. By the late 1980s, the antagonists had almost 70,000 nuclear bombs in their arsenals, enough to kill life on Earth ten times over. Chemical weapons were massproduced, and work on germ warfare never stopped. In crises, an all-out global war became a distinct possibility given a little push, the antagonists would have gone for it. Moscow sought compromises and peace accords in the late 1980s when the strain finally proved too much and changed its domestic and foreign policies drastically. Realization of the pointlessness of it all played its part in making the Cold War history.
he Cold War (1946-1989) is sometimes called World War Three. The front line in this conflict crossed many countries, and the costs or duration, for that matter had no historical precedent. Actual clashes were sporadic and differed in nature; even fighting in the trenches was resorted to. The casualties ran into the millions. During crises, the antagonists were prepared to use their stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction and launch a global Armageddon. This would have spelled mutual annihilation, probably without a winner, unless small bands of survivors with fairly slim chances of enduring fit the definition of the term. The Beginning, Scale, and Crises of the Cold War Confrontation between Western and Eastern Christian civilizations has been underway for centuries. Each side did its honest and not-so-honest best to expand its territory and sphere of influence. There were invasions of the Eastern lands from Western Europe that never ended in triumph, and sometimes the opposite, counterattacks. The prologue to the Cold War was the result of the policies of the Soviet Union and United States in the first half of the 20th century. The Soviet Union put forth the slogan of "World Revolution" in 1917 and mounted a fairly aggressive foreign policy. It annexed western Ukraine and Belarus, absorbed the Baltic States, and attacked Finland (not long after having let it go, right after the Revolution). There was more to the determination to transform the country into a powerful industrial state than merely doing away with the agrarian Russia of the past. Military might had to be amplified, and that required military industry. Tractor factories were converted to tank production, factories that had made chemicals were converted for the purposes of chemical warfare The United States had promoted a policy of isolationism and refrained from interfering in the affairs of Europe and other parts of the world throughout most of its history up until the 20th century, when it became actively involved in global affairs. When the Revolution of 1917 took place in Russia, the United States and other countries denied the new state international recognition. Washington at first helped the enemies of the Soviet government in the Civil War and impeded international cooperation between the Soviet Union and other countries afterward. The United States increased its economic, military, and scientific potential during and after World War II and became the leader of the Western world. Its decisive contribution to postwar restoration of Europe and Japan earned the United States additional respect. As for Soviet industry, it steadily developed throughout the 1930s and made an actual breakthrough in what probably was the worst period, namely, the Great Patriotic War, when the most industrially advanced regions were occupied by Germany. Tens of thousands of tanks, artillery pieces, and aircraft were produced by the year in the second half of the Great Patriotic War more than what Germany was assembling and of equal quality (see The Military Economy of the USSR in the Great Patriotic War, by Lev Voznesensky, 1947). This genuine Russian Miracle was accomplished at the moment when the Soviet Union was opposing the industry of the European countries under the management of the Germans brilliant engineers and organizers as they have always been. Military hardware and other gear provided by the other Allies within the land-lease program was useful as well. When the tide of the war turned and the Soviet Army began its steady advance, it became clear that it might crush Germany and probably even gain the Kremlin new geopolitical positions and spheres of influence. Its struggle against the German occupiers was earning the communist parties of France, Italy, and other countries

Chapter 6

109

previously unprecedented popularity and clout. With all of this taken into consideration, what the political map of Europe might have become was quite unclear. The situation being what it was, there was more to the establishment of the Second Front than fulfillment of the Allies' commitments to the Soviet Union. In establishing it, the Allies advanced as far to the East as possible to stop the victorious advance of the Soviet Army. A head-on clash was fortunately averted. The heads of the countries comprising the antifascist coalition made a compromise and divided Europe and the rest of the world into spheres of influence. It was Harry Truman, not Franklin Roosevelt, who represented the United States at the last meeting of the leaders in Potsdam, Germany. Winston Churchill's time as leader of his country was running out as well1. The division of conquered Germany into three zones of occupation (a step that preordained the establishment of two German states afterward) was essentially the last major accomplishment of the antifascist coalition. The euphoria induced by the victory and hopes for a better future did not last long. New causes for confrontation were discovered soon enough: the struggle over zones of influence, attempts to move "demarcation lines" in various regions of the world, the appearance of "global weapons" in the West, the arms race, and the support of foreign countries that were courted as potential allies. The new war (the one that would become known as Cold) was first proclaimed by Churchill in his famous speech at Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri, in March 1946. Churchill urged all the English-speaking countries and, more broadly, all of the Western world to unite against the Soviet Union and, using nuclear weapons as an argument the Russians could not counter at the time, force on it certain terms of future existence. The Soviet Union was supposed to accept the terms dictated to it or face destruction in a preemptive war. (Plans for bombarding the main cities of the Soviet Union with atomic bombs existed2). In 1947, the United States proclaimed a policy of deterring the expansion of Soviet influence throughout the world. The term "nuclear deterrent" was coined at about this time as well. Russia and the United States established state border and diplomatic relations in the early 19th century, and have never had armed clashes since that time (save for the sole episode of the American invasion of Vladivostok and Murmansk in 1918-1920). Russia's activeness in settlement of lands in the East all the way to Alaska and California notwithstanding, the border between the two countries was established peacefully, probably because of the difficulties inherent in long-distance communications at that time. The first major conflict, known as the Berlin Crisis, occurred in 1948-1949, when the Western Allies intended to fight their way into West Berlin, which had been laid siege to by the Soviet Union. Fortunately, the antagonists had the presence of mind not to start a shooting war, and the crisis soon wound down. (The antagonists went to great pains to avoid direct armed clashes thereafter they limited their participation in various wars to sending military advisers or servicemen wearing the uniforms of foreign armies.) The opponents concentrated on their stockpiles and armament programs. The Cold War was getting into high gear. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was established in 1949, a military alliance comprising 12 Western countries (Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Great Britain, and the United States). The subsequent history of military blocs in Europe included the following episodes. Greece and Turkey joined NATO in 1952, and the Federal Republic of Germany in 1955. The response to NATO took the form of the Warsaw Pact, which was established in the East in 1955 (and collapsed in 1989). It included nearly all the Eastern European countries, namely, Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary, the German Democratic Republic, Poland, Romania, Czechoslovakia, and the Soviet Union. Spain became a NATO member in 1982. When the German Democratic Republic and Federal Republic of Germany reunited in 1990, all of Germany ended up in NATO. The former members of the Warsaw Pact Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic joined NATO in 1999. The Alliance expanded again in 2004 and absorbed seven neophytes of the European Union from Eastern Europe. (When the Cold War ended, the United States cut its military presence in NATO by half.) In 2009, NATO was joined by Albania and Croatia. Celebrating its 60th anniversary in the early 2009, NATO discussed present strategic concept, cooperation with Russia in regard to the Afghan issue, combating drug trafficking, piracy, etc. Without doubt, the main goal of NATO in its presentday form is the protection and promotion of the West's interests. Like the Americans, the Soviet Union concentrated in the postwar period on the development of new weapons and means of their delivery. New Russian Miracles followed. It took the country, in the wake of an unbelievably devastating war, only a few years to make an A-Bomb, and then an H-Bomb shortly thereafter (a bomb, not a bulky device that would make transportation and delivery a nightmare, which is an important difference). The world-class ICBMs that were developed and built took the first satellites and cosmonauts into orbit. The Soviet Union also made use of others' A-Bomb secrets, and both sides used German rocket technology. (In fact, the Americans had prudently enlisted the services of Werner von Braun, one of the greatest rocket designers.)
With the new leaders in these countries, relations between the Allied Powers soured. In 1947 there was a plan which involved 130 nuclear warheads and in 1949 it was replaced by a 300 A-bomb one. Later, such plans were abandoned as news spread about Soviet Union creating its own A-bombs and means of their delivery.
1 2

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

110

This borrowed knowledge was of paramount importance at the early stages but played practically no role in the progress made in new fields of science afterward. It took the Soviet Union 10-15 years after World War II to become the second most scientifically advanced world power, albeit with a distinct emphasis on military applications of science.

First Cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin and First Man on the Moon Neil Armstrong. "One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind" (Neil Armstrong)

Resolved to catch up with the Soviet Union in rocket design and space exploration and determined to regain the status of most powerful country in the world, the United States poured more than $25 billion (an equivalent of $100-120 billion today) into the Apollo Program and made several Lunar expeditions3 at the turn of the 1960s and 1970s. Preparations for an expedition to the Moon were also underway in the Soviet Union, but the program was curtailed after several failures. The race in design and production of nuclear weapons resulted by the middle of the 1970s in a situation in which the Soviet Union and United States had between them a total of almost 50,000 (approximately 70,000 a decade later) bombs, each of them capable of destroying a major city (for more detail, see Chapter 12). This accounted for about 98% of the world's nuclear arsenals. The level of "reasonable adequacy" having been left behind long ago, the antagonists went on maintaining their nuclear potentials by inertia. Ground-based missiles, strategic bombers, and nuclear submarines were deployed and guided missiles designed. The concepts of "mutual intimidation" and "mutual assured destruction" were elaborated and believed in fervently4. The strategy of "flexible response" stipulated wars with and without the use of nuclear weapons. When the Soviet Union achieved nuclear parity in 1980, the United States shifted to a strategy of "compensatory counteraction," which boiled down to maintenance of strategic equilibrium with the Soviet Union. The antagonists had accumulated so many weapons that even the victim of a sneak attack could retaliate and be confident of rendering "unacceptable damage" to the enemy. The West came another step closer to all-out war in 1983 when it set up launch pads mere minutes away from the Soviet borders. The Soviet Union responded by increasing the number of missiles carried by submarines patrolling the American coast. The United States launched its Strategic Defense Initiative at approximately the same moment. SDI included plans of developing laser and beam weaponry and building military bases in outer space. It was gauged in both the United States and Soviet Union that the use of even a small part of their nuclear arsenals (even perhaps 10%) would cause, in addition to immediate devastation, the effect of Nuclear Winter, i.e., atmospheric pollution and a dramatic fall in temperature that would make life on Earth impossible5. This

3 When the Soviet Union launched the first satellite, the United States increased the pay to its scientists, and decisions were made to improve the system of education and start research in various fields of science. 4 Also, concepts of "limited nuclear war" and "disarming first strike" were developed. Here it is appropriate to recall that "false alarm" incidents did occur. For example, there was one in 1983 when a Soviet outpost received a false signal of missile launch from the United States. The officer on duty who received the signal and had the nerve to stop and sort things out was later rewarded with a crystal statuette inscribed "To the Man Who Prevented a Nuclear War." 5 Russian Academy of Sciences Member Nikita Moiseyev and American astronomer Carl Sagan independently calculated (and shared their results at a conference in 1983) that the explosion of several thousands of H-bombs would cause huge amounts of soot to become airborne; the soot would screen the Earth's surface off from sunlight for many months, causing temperature at the surface to drop by several dozen degrees. All effects of evaporation will diminish, and monsoons will no longer bring humidity from the oceans to the continents.

Chapter 6

111

was one of the reasons an end was put to accumulation of nuclear weapons and the Cold War eventually became history. Simultaneously, means of waging chemical and germ warfare were designed and produced. According to recently declassified data, these stockpiled weapons alone would have probably sufficed to bring about the extinction of mankind (although it is difficult to make any accurate forecasts about a possible outcome of the use of these weapons). The opposing sides had accumulated at least 30,000-40,000 tons of chemical weaponry. There is no information regarding the quality and quantity of biological weapons even today. (The principle of "mutual intimidation" prevented the use of chemical and germ warfare in World War II). The worldwide gathering of countries into opposing camps became another area of the Cold War. The Soviet Union rendered political, economic, and military assistance to a great many foreign countries, some of them striving to rid themselves of colonial influence. It sent specialists to these countries and taught their students. It also and not infrequently trained men in carrying out illegal activities and forming future governments. The United States was similarly busy. The socialist camp, which that comprised the Eastern European countries, China, Vietnam, North Korea, and some other states on practically every continent, was expanding. The United States and its allies were frantic to put an end to this trend. Wars in Korea (1950-1953) and Vietnam (1964-1975) were fought, the death toll in them totaling 2.2 (3?) million, including 58,000 American soldiers in Vietnam. Such battles were anything but "cold." The war in Korea split the country in two, and that in Vietnam resulted in the Americans' defeat. The North Korean army invaded South Korea with the blessing and active support of the Soviet Union and China. This campaign left Western Europe badly shaken, its hopes for defense mostly pinned on the United States6. The first steps in the sphere of European integration were made then, mostly with the aim of countering the powerful Soviet Union (see "European Union"). (Strangely enough, one of the regional wars of that period was fought between socialist China and Vietnam.) The Cuban Missile Crisis, one of the most dangerous episodes of the Cold War, took place in October 1962. When the Soviet Union deployed missiles in Cuba7, the United States blockaded the island and demanded withdrawal of the missiles in no uncertain terms. This time, it was Soviet ships that were ready to fight their way through the blockade. The antagonists were on the verge of launching nuclear missiles, and that would have meant all-out hostilities with consequences best not to think about8. Personal telephone phone negotiations between Nikita Khrushchev and John F. Kennedy stopped the crisis, which had been rapidly deteriorating and spinning out of control. The missiles were pulled out, and the United States dismantled its silos in Turkey near the Soviet border. Following the crisis, the antagonists initiated more energetic talks on limitations and bans of nuclear tests in three areas and reduction of strategic (and even, later, conventional) arms. The appropriate treaty was signed in 1963 (see Chapter 18). Dangerous situations were also sparked by riots in East Germany in 1953 and Hungary in 1956. Taking place within the socialist camp as they were, these episodes increased tensions between the principal antagonists. When the Soviet Army was sent to subdue Czechoslovakia in 1968, the US Army was put on alert. The West had no guarantees could have no guarantees that the Soviet tanks would stop at the border of the Federal Republic of Germany. Attempts were made now and again to lessen the tension and reduce the level of confrontation. "After a period of confrontation, we are entering an era of negotiation," President Richard Nixon said in his first inauguration speech in January 1969. Dtente began, which culminated in the joint Soviet-American space flight. The Soviet Soyuz and the American Apollo9 mated in orbit and executed a joint flight after approximately six years of preparations. The world powers showed the world and themselves that cooperation and interaction were possible. Unfortunately, confrontation would not be done away with so easily. Soviet spetsnaz (special forces) toppled the government of Afghanistan in 1979, and the Soviet Army (in the form of a so-called "limited contingent") took over. More than 15,000 Soviet servicemen and hundreds of thousands of Afghans (some estimates put the number of victims at 1 million) perished in the decade-long war that followed the invasion (1979-1989). Wars backed by the opposing blocs took place in Congo, Angola, Nicaragua, and other countries. Clashes in the Middle East occurred. Units of the American army fought in Vietnam, the Soviet army in Afghanistan, and the Cuban in Angola, and "volunteers" and Soviet combat pilots in Korea. Military specialists and weapons from both sides of the confrontation participated in practically all the armed conThere was a joke in Western Europe in that period that optimists studied the Russian language and pessimists studied Chinese. Forty missiles with a range of 1,500 kilometers, nuclear warheads, and tens of thousands of servicemen were dispatched to Cuba. 8 The missile launchers in Cuba were readied for engagement at any moment, and American bombers on station near Soviet areas were ready to destroy 75 cities (from Anatomy of the Cuban Missile Crisis, by Sergo Mikoyan, 2006). "Captains of Soviet submarines with nuclear torpedoes (four diesel submarines) had orders to deploy ANY weapons if advised that Soviet ships had been attacked. The decision to launch nuclear missiles was to be made by three men the captain, zampolit or political officer, and first mate. In one of these submarines, two were for and one against the launch" (Sergei Khrushchev, son of Nikita Sergeyevich Khrushchev, Argumenty i Fakty, No 49, 2004). 9 The spacecraft mated in orbit above the Elbe, the river where the Allied armies had met in World War II.
6 7

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

112

flicts. The bipolar world obeyed the club-law of the two world powers (the Soviet Union and United States), with the United Nations and its Security Council reduced to playing the part of a podium for propaganda, an arena for contests in political eloquence. Movements purporting to be involved in the "struggle for peace" existed and operated in many countries, even those busy preparing for war and participating in regional conflicts. Some of these movements were backed and ran by the Eastern Bloc. "We will struggle for peace on Earth until not a stone is left standing" was a popular joke at the time. The situation could by and large be appraised as one of "parity" the approximate equality of the armed forces on both sides. (Other "nonaligned" countries were sometimes referred to as a third force.) It was essentially a "nuclear stalemate" in which the warring sides tried beat each other in terms of quality and quantity of armaments and feared at the same time that any reckless move might push the other over the edge and provoke a preemptive strike10. Maintaining parity put the whole socialist camp, first and foremost the Soviet Union, under intolerable strain. With the capitalist camp enjoying a larger population and average GDP, the Soviet Union was compelled to channel a substantial part of the national income and intellectual resources into maintenance parity. The Soviet Union had more tanks (almost 65,000) and men in uniform (almost 5.5 million) by the end of the Cold War than any three other countries of the world together (including the United States and China). War has its own logic, and keeping the military machines, trained for war and poised to strike as they were, off each other was not easy. The Afghan escapade (1979) proved to be one of the Soviet Union's worst mistakes in global affairs. This war smeared its image in the eyes of the international community. Knowing that the Soviet Union had all but exhausted its resources and could no longer increase its expenditure on armaments, the United States under President Ronald Reagan doubled its military budget from $150 billion to $300 billion in the 1980s. Expensive new weapons for Star Wars (or false rumors passed around about it) and other cutting-edge American military programs accomplished their mission. Despite the Kremlin's efforts to find a cheaper, asymmetric response, the concern arose that parity would be lost in the near future. This became one more reason for ending the protracted and dangerous Cold War. Competition and military confrontation between the two blocs (two civilizations, in fact) proceeded at the same time as did a dialogue between representatives of science and the arts and various movements over the dangers of war. The search means to resolve the existing contradictions never ended. Conferences, debates, and seminars allowed for discussion and, to some extent, for drawing conclusions on the actual state of affairs of public knowledge. Having its effect on the frame of mind of everyone, from the man in the street to leaders and elites, it also facilitated the end of the Cold War. This precedent sets an example for coping with existing and future conflicts. A dialogue between societies parallel to the one between the powers-that-be reduces tension and makes finding a way out of what may otherwise become a cul-de-sac easier. The Late 20th Century: Military, Economic, and Political Crises in the Soviet Union The Cold War and parity lasted for over 40 years, but the antagonists' potentials were never equal in the first place. The United States and its allies had several times the economic might of the Soviet Union. Moreover, they were ahead of their adversary technologically. The internal strains were incomparable as well. The United States was spending 16 cents of every dollar of the national income (this latter dramatically exceeding the Soviet Union's) on military programs, and the Soviet Union 88 kopecks of every ruble. In addition, the Soviet Union was rushing headlong into a domestic crisis fomented by a chronic shortage of bare necessities, from food to clothing to apartments, even though the Great Patriotic War had been over for years. As before, all socialist changes were pompously proclaimed as aiming at improvement of the living standards and "prosperity of the working class". Nikita Khrushchev said long before the 20th Congress of the CPSU (in 1956) that, "only our forbearing Russian people can tolerate it all, but we cannot count on its forbearance much longer I was a worker once. We did not have socialism then, but we had potatoes. Now we have built socialism, but we have no potatoes," (The Dusk by Alexander Yakovlev, 2003, p. 252). Stores were empty more often than not; in the 1960s, and the annual import of grain reached 45 million tons. And that was despite the fact a fairly large proportion of the population worked in the agriculture. Newspapers continued to call the social system built in the Soviet Union the most humane and promising, but the consumer-price index in the Soviet Union was far below that in the advanced countries. What was particularly disconcerting was that the gap
10

There is an opinion that very many on both sides viewed preservation of tension as an advantage. "Peace-loving verbiage notwithstanding, all attempts at establishing friendly relations, particularly informal ones, were suppressed on both sides. They posed a danger to the Communists and to the West alike: they generated the ideas of convergence and therefore challenged the necessity of the mechanisms the powers-that-be used to retain their positions" (Academician Nikita Moiseyev).

Chapter 6

113

was only widening. ("The state pretended to pay, and the people pretended to work," as the joke goes.) Quality of life in the Soviet Union was maintained at a minimal, albeit guaranteed, level. Ideological conditioning and political indoctrination prevented the population from drawing comparisons with the living standards in foreign countries. The command-administrative system, centralized multistoried management, bulky bureaucracy, and (often) information restricted to a need-to-know basis all played their parts. A new class had formed, the so-called nomenklatura, an elite entitled to a whole set of open and hidden benefits. The country was notoriously unreceptive to innovations, including the application of modern technologies and advanced methods of labor organization. Unlike the problems of the military, those of the civilian population were put off until the last possible moment, and the quality of the solutions left much to be desired. Yegor Gaidar described the situation in A Long Time (2005) as follows: "Economic growth in the USSR became more and more anomalous after the early 1970s. The ratio of raw materials in the export structure was increasing, while that of the end products was going down. The ratio of machinery and equipment went down from 5.8% in 1975 to 3.5% in 1985. This was when the mechanisms that collapsed the socialist system, a dramatic fall in production and living standards, were turned on The Soviet government went on financing satellite regimes, loaning them money with no real hope of ever seeing it again A political structure that had used repression on an unprecedented scale lost the capacity and readiness to exert itself at the scale needed to ensure continuation of the totalitarian regime."11 Travel abroad was severely restricted in the Soviet Union. Control was somewhat eased after 1956, when scientists became more regular guests at conferences abroad, as athletes were at tournaments. Group tourism appeared. All the same, the scope of interaction was far behind the level enjoyed by the rest of the world, owing to the Iron Curtain. Lack of contacts and exchange of information facilitated a gap in the fields of knowledge that sparked the new scientific-technical revolution cybernetics (information technology), genetics, and so on. Neither did totalitarian methods in science help "orders from above," decisions by the Central Committee, and "authorities" like Trofim Lysenko. Andrey Sakharov in the early perestroika Physics barely avoided "administrative execution," which turned (from Izvestia, August 2003) out to be a blessing for the country when it came to need to 12 master the power of the atom . Unfortunately, even the methods of organization in science were far from ideal, as can be seen from the following figures. The Soviet Union came up with considerably fewer discoveries and inventions that one would expect for a country with almost 25% of the world's scientists working for it. The percentage of them that were applied was even more pitiful. The citation index, one of the major parameters of the importance of works of science recognized throughout the world, was far below that in the advanced countries. The loosening of the regime that followed Stalin's death was known as the Thaw. Foreign broadcasts in the Russian language were still jammed, and the press and writers were censored. Nevertheless, keeping information under the lid was becoming more and more difficult, for instance, information on the social safety system in the advanced countries like the United States, Sweden, or Finland (formerly a province of the Russian Empire, and poor in resources at that), or information on systems of medical care or the attitude toward the handicapped. To say nothing of information concerning the fact that Germany (Federal Republic of Germany) and Japan, countries defeated in World War II, were two of the ten most-prosperous countries in the world, far ahead of the winner,

11 The cost of food imports and many other needs was made up for to an extent by the sale of natural resources, and the crash in the oil market (a sixfold reduction between 1981 and 1986) made the crisis of the Soviet system all the more unbearable. 12 Lev Landau was imprisoned, and Sergey Kapitsa was fired and prevented from going back to work for years both were full members of the Academy of Sciences and future winners of the Nobel Prize. Academician Nikolay Vavilov died in prison. Sergey Korolyov and Viktor Glushkov, Andrey Tupolev, Alexander Mints (one of the founding fathers of radio engineering), and many others were arrested or harassed. The repressions affected many prominent writers and cultural workers, not to mention the campaign against doctors in the late 1940s. Quite a few scientists and specialists in the country were mistreated or tortured.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

114

the Soviet Union. The scope of samizdat and tamizdat13 (slang for literature published in the Soviet Union unofficially or published abroad) publications increased. The Eastern European countries of "people's democracy" were applying more and more pressure and demanding liberal changes. The Chernobyl disaster in April 1986 greatly undermined the country's prestige and entailed considerable political and economic costs. The mood of the masses was slowly changing, this process being somewhat facilitated by the knowledge that some undeniably talented and respectable fellow countrymen were actually fighting the existing regime and calling for reorganization adequate to the country's riches and human potential. Repression of the dissidents, human rights activists and many others who challenged the official views (trials, exile, use of punitive psychiatry, and even the episode in Novocherkassk, in which a peaceful demonstration was mowed down in 1962) paved the way for mass discontent. It even enabled the United States to condemn the Soviet Union as the "Evil Empire." The Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Helsinki in 1975 launched the so-called Helsinki Process an active struggle for freedom and the observance of civil rights. It was gradually dawning on the population of the country that "such a life cannot be tolerated much longer." The existing system of pervasive control did not allow for any evolutionary movement, and the process of reorganization was initiated by the upper echelons of state power. Not one of the US secret services assigned to the task of studying the Soviet Union had predicted the turn the developments in the Soviet Union took near the end of the 1980s. Many experts claimed that the Soviet system would eventually encounter a crisis, but most assumed that socialist methods in economics would be abandoned in 20 years or so and that the long-expected "convergence" would take place. The widespread opinion was that the bipolar world might become history somewhere in the first quarter of the 21st century, with the rise of China as another global center of power14. Mikhail Gorbachev became chairman of the Central Committee of the CPSU in 1985. He attempted to radically improve the regime and affix a so-called "human face" to it (a term coined in Czechoslovakia in 1968)15. The "acceleration and perestroika" campaign was mounted. Glasnost changed matters greatly censorship was eased and soon abolished, and criticism and expression became unrestricted. The jammers were turned off, foreign periodicals became available, arrests of dissidents stopped, and religious activity was permitted. Moskovskie Novosti, Ogonyok, and other media outlets changed radically and became daring voices. New radio and television programs concentrated on the publication of the hard facts of life and called for changes. Gorbachev even succeeded in replacing some senior state functionaries. The reforms secured active support from the population. The nomenklatura (the ruling stratum) was loath to see its privileges and control vanish, but the system proved unstable. It found the reforms too much. (As a matter of fact, many of the representatives of the nomenklatura are back in positions of power, this time in a market economy.) The integrity of the system was disrupted. A process was launched that was practically uncontrollable and resulted in the utter disintegration of the communist state something even organizers of the perestroika themselves had never expected. The social, political, and economic structures of the country and its very ideology switched to their opposites. "Perestroika under Gorbachev succeeded in breaking the back of the mightiest monster of the 20th century, the totalitarian regime," as Alexander Yakovlev said. Dismantling of the state machinery and taking the reins from the collective hand of the Communist Party were a difficult, often risky, undertaking. Envisaging an alternative system was close to impossible. There were no specialists in the state and administrative consequences of changes of this magnitude, and state power was all but absent for a certain period. The wave of developments in politics, economics, interethnic relations, and so on inspired awe and a feeling of helplessness. The former Soviet republics became sovereign states. The population of the country became half its previous size, and its territory diminished by a third. The Soviet Union was no more; the Russian Federation had taken its place. Developments in Eastern Europe, and particularly success of Solidarity in Poland, facilitated changes as well. The former geopolitical framework collapsed. The Warsaw Pact disintegrated. Eastern European and other countries drifted out of the traditional zone of influence. The two German states merged into one. The army returned from Afghanistan. "The regime collapsed under the strain of the arms race Gorbachev wanted some minor correcA memo from the KGB to the Central Committee of the CPSU dated December 1970 declares that "Over 400 [illegal E.A.] surveys and articles have appeared since 1965. They criticize the historic experience of socialist construction in the Soviet Union and suggest various programs of oppositional activities" 14 "When the Soviet Union was disintegrating, the U.S. Administration was in a state of utter panic, without any idea of what to do about this windfall" (Yegor Gaidar). 15 The following is an excerpt from Mikhail Gorbachev's speech at the American University in Turkey in 1999: "The goal of my whole life was elimination of communism, the unbearable dictatorship over people... When I got personally acquainted with the West I understood that I could not betray my goal. Realization of this goal required sweeping replacements in the leadership of the CPSU and the Soviet Union as well as in the leaderships of all socialist countries. The planned economy did not allow realization of the potential the peoples of the socialist camp had possessed. Only a transition to the free market economy could give these countries the opportunity to develop dynamically."
13

Chapter 6

115

Were it not for what passes for socialism in China and its successes, acknowledgment of the defeat of the former economic system in Russia/the Soviet Union would have provided a perfect opportunity to sum up the history of the nearly 70year-long struggle between the two economic systems. As concerns the competition with our country, Professor Igor Bestuzhev-Lada has suggested a fairly harsh estimate: "The battle between the barracks and the market began in the 19th century, when the keenest minds of Western Europe worked out a social doctrine of doing away with the wounds of the advancing capitalism (the 12-14 hour long workday, paltry salaries, state of semistarvation, women and children made to do unbearable work, unemployment, and so on). One only had to do away with the aristocracy and bourgeoisie, with the market and money The Bolsheviks carried this out in 1917 The Bolsheviks exterminated aristocracy of the blood, and with it the aristocracy of spirit, the famous Russian intelligentsia Since then, the USSR (and not only it) has been governed by unreasonable and unscrupulous people whose stupidity has affected the people badly. The Bolsheviks exterminated the bourgeoisie, and with them the very spirit of enterprise They exterminated peasants, mistaking them for the bourgeoisie, and ended up without masters, but with slaves in collective farms They exterminated the market and ended up without food The new aristocracy moved into the apartments, mansions, and dachas confiscated from the old aristocracy and became entitled to shares of food and clothing amid a hungry and impoverished society The end was deplorable" (Alternative Civilization, pp. 178-179, 1998)

tions only, but overdid it and everything fell apart" (Stanislaw Lem). The socialist camp ceased to exist, the Cold War was over (at least in the former sense). November 9, 1989, the day when the Berlin Wall was torn down as the symbol of the Cold War, may be regarded as its last day. Ronald Reagan had appealed to Gorbachev in 1987: "Mister Gorbachev, tear down this wall!"16 This was the end of the first global conflict that held the possibility of putting an end to mankind. Or rather, it was the end of its critical phase, because confrontation between the former antagonists, though less intense, continues even today. The thrill of competition for global domination and dislike of the other side bred over decades cannot be abandoned overnight. In any case, the interests of the former enemies do not always coincide. Its strength having ebbed away, one of the runners dropped out of the race. This was not exactly the worst possible outcome, particularly since the loser escaped without suffering any great material losses, even shedding the burden of a substantial drain on its own resources. Today, it is free of its old ambitions and aspirations for global leadership. Military defeat, a worst scenario which fortunately had not realized, would have implied destruction and loss of life. Russia had preserved its nuclear weapons and escaped "only" with a loss of a part of our territory and population, prestige, deterioration of GDP, impoverishment of the citizenry, shortening of the average lifespan, inadequate birth rate, degradation of science, and for the time being at least insecurity concerning the future. Millions died all over the world in the 43 years of the Cold War, and astronomical sums were spent on design and production of arms and maintenance of armies and military facilities. It cost mankind trillions of dollars. (Of course, some inventions were successfully applied in the civilian spheres: we now have jet passenger aviation, scientific satellites, new means of communications, computers, efficient medical gear, and so on.) Young people today cannot even come close to comprehending what life was like in this country 25-30 years ago. "No tiresome shortages, no humiliating lines, no total submission of private life to repressive structures, no feeling of a fortress being laid siege to, with the way out restricted to the elite they do not know and do no want to know such things. Lucky they are" (Academician Nikolay Shmelev). The Cold War, particularly the 1960s and 1970s, was unique, a period in which mankind had the capacity to wipe itself out. It had the means of doing so and the frame of mind. Only a tiny step separated it from the abyss at certain moments. That the worst was averted is, to a considerable extent, something we owe to sheer luck and, of course, a combination of the common sense and reasonable approach displayed by the leaders of the antagonistic blocs in time of crisis. The period between November 9, 1989 (when the Berlin Wall was torn down), and September 11, 2001 (when the Twin Towers were destroyed in New York), was probably the most benevolent in the new history. Global confrontation was essentially absent, though regional and local conflicts continued to take their toll.

Regarding the current situation in the world, the opinion exists that, "contrary to the forecasts made in the 1990s that predicted stability and integration, the world is becoming more dangerous This evaluation takes into account the tension between China and Taiwan, conflict in Chechnya, nuclear and missile tests run by India and Pakistan, and the growing fear of nuclear proliferation in other regions" (Rotfeld, SIPRI Almanac, 2000). This was written before September 11, 2001. Hence, we have the increasing military budgets of the United States and, lately, Russia increasing once again. The bombardments of Yugoslavia, terrorist attacks and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, exacerbations in Israel,
16 The list of the people who contributed the most to bringing the Cold War to its end includes Mikhail Gorbachev, Andrei Sakharov, Alexander Solzhenitsyn, Ronald Reagan, and, of course, some Soviet and Eastern European dissidents and Western functionaries.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

116

There is, however, an alternative opinion regarding the modern stage of relations between the United States and Russia. Speaking at the Munich Annual Conference on Security Policy in October 2008, American-German journalist F. William Engdahl remarked that "complete destruction of Russia, the only state in Eurasia which is capable of, using its immense resources of oil and gas, creating an effective union of countries, has been and remains to be the Washington's geopolitical goal. Of course, it will never be possible to publicly announce the cost of such geopolitical risk"18. In the meantime, Minister of Foreign Affairs or the Russian Federation Sergei Lavrov maintains that Russia views the former Soviet Union countries as a zone of "historically established and mutually beneficial and favored relations."

the conflict in Transcaucasia, the tension mounting in the relations between Iran and the United States and the rest of the Western community, the North Korean efforts at developing newest weapons. The arsenals of the two nuclear powers, as means of mutual destruction, do not exactly promote abatement of tension either. Both sides have retained many missiles, and espionage against each other continues, as well as rivalry in designing new weapons and in fields of research that may lead to appearance of new strategic arms. The United States is preparing to install radar in Eastern Europe, while Russia, after a 15-year-long hiatus, has resumed patrol flights by long-range strategic bombers (which, reportedly, do not carry nuclear weapons)17 and activated its military cooperation with Latin American countries.

In planning space exploration and launching new military projects, both sides are trying to leave the rival behind or, at the very least, not to fall behind him. The Americans are completely against investing in the Russian space industry save for in emergencies, such as problems with their shuttles. New, sophisticated nuclearpowered submarines are being built, new missiles are being tested and so on (see Chapter 12). At the same time, the leaders of both Russia and the United States understand the risks associated with the arms race and its continuation and often make announcements regarding the need for joint and coordinated actions aimed at reducing nuclear weapons, combating terrorism and resolving several other issues. Popular in 2009 is the concept of "reloading" or reconsideration and radical change of several concepts of international policy, first of all, of the relations between Russia and the United States. Although the world situation is no longer dominated by confrontation of the two powerful blocs, the danger today is coming from numerous hotbeds which incessantly flare up here and there as well as from regional wars which are capable of igniting a new bipolar (or multipolar?) confrontation. Exacerbations of international situation give rise to suspicions and fuel arms race. Stanislaw Lem described our life after the Cold War thusly: "the impression is that we are riding a train that is accelerating in an unknown direction. Living in the world is not any easier than when the world was bipolar."

17 Voices are being heard in the United States about an imminent "increase in rivalry and antagonism in the relations between the White House and the Kremlin that would hamper cooperation in antiterrorist activities, nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction and promoting democratic developments in the Middle East," (quoted Mike McConnell, former director of National Intelligence of the United States). 18 See F. William Engdahl http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F._William_Engdahl.

Chapter 7

117

Chapter 7

Russia, A View From the Inside

(see also chapters 5, 6 and 8)

Russia's vast territory, large population, history, great contribution to world culture, and military victories determine the specific traits of the Russian people's mentality and consciousness. They live in a freer country today and express their views freely, yet they have so far been unable to catch up with the modern level of technological development, stop population decline, curb crime and pacify ethnic conflicts; neither have they succeeded in reversing the process of degradation of science. The Russian national ideas for the near future are to rebuild the country, drastically improve the quality of life, catch up with the advanced countries, maintain state and territorial integrity, create a full-fledged civil society and, what is the most important, to provide each and every citizen with adequate living standards. For this, internal stability, long-term steady cooperation with the outside world, and an understanding of the tendencies determining the development of the entire humankind are needed.
ussia, its recent history, present situation and prospects for the future are arousing the keen interest and R are the most exciting topics for the author of this book. Being born in the socialist epoch, the author is quite familiar with such things as the "command" economy and totalitarian rule and knows how it feels to live

and work in that system1. Having pulled ourselves through perestroika, now we are trying to realize where we are and what we should do next. In contemplating the future, making plans and developing strategies, we should not limit ourselves to considering solely domestic problems and peculiarities, but should include world trends and processes into our analysis as well; after all, the outside world is tending to produce an increasingly strong influence on our lives. Before we proceed, let us make a brief historical digression. What were the ideas that led the Russians in the 20th century? Of course, there was 1917, when old ideas were abandoned overnight and new, seemingly opposite ones, replaced them. Tsar and God were replaced with the Leader and the Bright Communist Tomorrow. However, the two paradigms had many things in common: in both systems, the masses were recommended to be patient and humble, work hard and overcome hardships with dignified resignation for the sake of eternal bliss in the future. Before October 1917, the "future" meant an afterlife in Paradise (provided that you did not sin), while after the Bolshevik Revolution it meant a blissful communist future for your descendants2. However, while you live in this world, your life shall be governed by the tsar or other leaders who enjoy incontestable authority and full power. Incidentally, the "Communist Builder's Code" had much in common with the Ten Commandments, including that one shall not steal, shall not covet one's neighbor's wife and so on. Another shared feature deserves to be mentioned here: neither religious nor communist leaders championed austerity and limit themselves in carnal pleasures and riches in this life. As regards the so-often-debated property issue, both before and after the October 1917 Revolution (and now, after perestroika) the overwhelming majority of the population owned very little property. As often occurred earlier in history, Russia was lagging behind and trying to catch up with Western civilization. Most of the countries classified as part of Western civilization had had bourgeois revolutions several hundred years before, successfully passed through a period of building up of parliamentarianism, and wound up with well-established democratic systems and higher standards of living. As a rule, Russia (and the Soviet Union during the time of its existence) has treaded along a special path of development, different from those of the other countries. Before 1917, this was autocracy and communalism (as opposed to liberalism and parliamentarianism in the West)3, and after 1917 this was despotism again, although
1 In the 1940s, the author of this book witnessed the war and the deportation of one of the Caucasus peoples (the Karachais); in 1947, he enrolled in the Bauman Institute (currently renamed as Moscow State Technical University) where he studied at the Department of Rocketry; later, he studied in the Moscow Engineering and Applied Physics Institute. After graduating, he worked in the Kurchatov (nuclear) research center (thencalled LIPAN) and later he worked in the Nuclear Physics Institute in Akademgorodok (Academy Town) near Novosibirsk. Fortunately, the author, for his age or his good luck, avoided repressions, persecutions and other calamities that ruined many lives in that time. 2 The practice of feeding the masses with promises of a happy life in the future, say, in 15-20 years, remains a popular trick with modern-day politicians. 3 Enlightened as he was Vissarion Belinsky once wrote: "With Tsar our freedom lies." Nikolay Gogol, for his part, maintained that only the law of serfdom allowed landowners to bring up their peasants in a proper way to make them into an example for the whole Europe.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

118

Over the past century, Russia has passed through a series of cataclysms with a colossal death toll: World War I, the Civil War, famine in several regions in the 1930s famine, Stalin's repressions (GULAG and massive executions), and the Great Patriotic War. Now we have low life expectancy, an enormously high death rate in traffic accidents, poor medical and health care, alcohol abuse and other ludicrous problems. Russia lost many of its citizens in several waves of emigration, and now skilled specialists, young people and those who are looking for a quieter life continue to leave this country. During the Soviet era, the high birth rates in the republics of Central Asia and several other regions allowed the Soviet Union to boast a positive population dynamics. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the demographic situation in Russia is catastrophic: the country's population is shrinking by approximately 0.7 million a year. The main cause of such an adverse demographic situation is the low quality of life of the vast majority of the population and, hence, a low birth rate. It is not clear at this point to what extent will the recent government moves directed at stimulating the birth rate will be effective.

this time a socialist one, and again it contrasted itself to Western liberalism and democracy4. A good question here to ask is in which direction we are moving today. And at what speed? Are we moving toward a democracy and civil society or are we moving toward a strengthened top-down rule system? After 1917, a widening gap emerged between an officially declared liberalism and the policy actually pursued by the authorities. What was new about the Bolsheviks was the severity with which the new rulers herded the nation toward the goal with no regard for the number of human lives this might cost5. Some part of the population was enthusiastic about socialist and communist ideas, but the result was that a number of generations came and went with futile hopes for a better future6. The idea that we will show the world "how it should be" was enormously popular after the October 1917 Revolution. In addition to the transformations of the economy and public consciousness, opposition to the capitalist world and involvement in various political and military conflicts throughout the world in Asia, Africa and Latin America played a significant role in the country's life and development was. (That stated, the Soviet Union was not involved in any military conflicts in Australia and North America, where tsarist Russia once had outposts that were later abandoned).

We seem to have inherited certain imperial traditions from preRevolutionary Russia: for many centuries the concept of "the in-gathering of the lands" was one of the main components of Russia's national idea. In fact, the very same idea has been present in a number of other countries; however, the Russians were more successful, which is why the huge multinational country lasted longer. As Nikolai Berdyaev said, "it was easy for Russians to gain vast land expanses, but it was much harder for them to manage them." Other components of the Russian national idea included so-called "communal collectivism" and great power ambitions. Russia's great power statehood was fueled by the country's vast territory, its large population, sizable contribution to world culture and intermit4 Here it is appropriate to recall that Russia's first constitution was adopted back in 1905 when constitutional monarchy was established. Since then, it has been rewritten about ten times. It is interesting to note that many of the modern-day constitution's principal articles are carbon copies of the respective articles of the year 1905 constitution. World's first constitution was adopted in the United States in 1787. 5 "All forms of proletarian compulsion, from executions to compulsory labor, make up the method of forging a communist world of the materials inherited from the capitalist epoch," Nikolai Bukharin (at the time when he was at power). 6 Speaking in Washington in September 2005, at a joint press conference with then-president of the United States George Bush, then-president of Russia Vladimir Putin made the following statement: "As you know, we lived for many decades in the Soviet Union with the credo that rather than thinking about the present generation, we must think of the future one. In the end, by not thinking of the people living today, we destroyed the country."

Chapter 7

119

tent military successes. There were different mottos and slogans associated with Russia's national idea, including "Autocracy, Orthodoxy and National Character," "Russia Is the Third Rome" and "True Christianity," but what remained unchanged in all times was the "Great, United and Indivisible Russia." After the Bolshevik Revolution7 new ideas were proclaimed: first, this was world revolution, and later it evolved into the concept of a community of socialist countries, the so-called "Socialist Camp," its development and expansion, and support of oppressed peoples. Thanks to its collectivistic traditions, Russia was in the best position to assimilate the socialist ideas that had long excited the world8. The slogan "proletarians of all countries, unite!" was well in line with Russia's aspirations. As regards economic development, Russia, in line with the international tendencies of that time, stepped on the path of industrialization; however, industrialization in Russia bore a noticeable bias in favor of military industry. The loss of many specialists who chose to leave the country after the Bolshevik Revolution was largely compensated for by the creation of new scientific schools, one of the best engineering and research elites in the world and skilled working class, which is why the Soviet Union maintained technological and scientific research at a high level, developed and manufactured superior military hardware during the war and some time after. As a result, Russia won World War II and managed to stand up in competition against the capitalist world in the Cold War for quite a long time. Closer to the end of the Soviet era, the country managed to keep pace with the world's leading countries only in a limited number of fields of science and technology. In most other fields, the Soviet Union was falling behind and the gap was widening. Agriculture was a constant problem throughout the Soviet era. The liquidation of the rich and middle-income farms and forced collectivization led to short supply of food items and later made Russia dependent on grain imports. During the Great Patriotic War, there was only one national goal to beat the enemy out of the country and assert the latter's independence. During the postwar period, the goal was to restore the country, and then to build communism. There was even a moment somewhere in the 1960s when it was officially declared that communism would be built in 20 years, following the epoch of "developed socialism." However, with each passing year, it was becoming clearer that the Soviet Union was losing the economic competition with the West (later, it turned out that in terms of growth tempo Soviet Union was losing to the communist China as well) and that the attempt at creating a new, progressive society in this part of the world had failed. As epochs changed, national ideas changed accordingly. "Russia, to where are you rushing? Give an answer. No answer" (Nikolai Gogol) In the 1980s, the danger of losing military parity emerged. The need for radical changes was becoming increasingly pressing. The country was entering a new era that brought disintegration, a change of geopolitics, loss of the former ideology and creation of a fundamentally different economic system. The main causes behind these radical changes were the inefficiency of the socialist system and the loss of the Cold War. Unfortunately, all previous attempts at reforming the system either failed or remained incomplete, including Vladimir Lenin's New Economic Policy and the programs pursued by Nikita Khrushchev, Alexey Kosygin and Yuri Andropov. The social and political crises forced the then-Soviet leadership to try democratic methods of governance, and radical changes engulfed the world superpower. It will be no exaggeration to say that no other industrial society had suffered such a sweeping collapse of its bases. The system's demolition was so quick and so unexpected that we should only be happy that it did not led to chaos and anarchy. This was yet another crucial point in the world's recent history, because a single wrong step by a nuclear superpower could have marked the end of civilization. It was also good that the new independent republics that inherited nuclear weapons quickly and peacefully agreed to turn them over to Russia. The fact that the "divorce" was peaceful cannot but be recognized as a lucky outcome. Here it is appropriate to recall France's recent divorce with Algeria, disintegration of Yugoslavia and many other historical examples. If effect, what happened was a bloodless bourgeois revolution. The result is at hand: the socialist system was exchanged for a private-property-based capitalist system. In the beginning, there were fears that the "old communist guard," who were rather strong and well organized, might make an attempt to regain power. The first steps were quite uncertain, but the country was radically transformed. It is clear to us today that the redivision of the huge country's property was performed unfairly most of the country's wealth, truly fabulous
7 The 1917 coup, including the capture of the Winter Palace and the seizure of power, occurred almost bloodlessly, except for a few casualties among the Winter Palace guards. It was afterward that a colossal death toll was reaped by the Civil War, the Red and White terrors, political trials, etc. 8 The world had long since understood that mankind and human civilization were moving toward increasing problems and risks which might even endanger the very existence of humanity. The communist idea in itself, the idea of building up a "perfect society," was an attempt to transform human civilization to eliminate the emerging global problems. What has to be done today as these problems are increasingly aggravating? See this book (and other works referenced in Chapter 1) for answers to this question.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

120

A large part of the intelligentsia, including professors, researchers, doctors, teachers and representatives of other once-respected and well-paid professions, was pushed to the verge of poverty, many of them facing a very real struggle for survival. Some preferred to defect into the spheres of vending or public services. As a result, millions of highly educated people became shuttle traders filling the domestic market with the cheap goods that were in short supply in the Soviet era. There is also an optimistic appraisal of the Russia's recent past, according to which the country has emerged out of the 20th century having won victories over two totalitarian systems: the Nazis and the Soviets. Elderly people, particularly pensioners, have found themselves in a situation of plight, servicemen are experiencing serious problems and many of the younger generation wound up with frustrated hopes they had placed in the promises of a free choice of education and field of work. According to UN statistics, some 25 million people in Russia are poor. One important social indicator is the income ratio of the top 10% of the population to the bottom 10%. It is believed that if this ratio is 10 or higher, there is a danger of a social explosion. In Russia, the present value of this ratio is around 15 (in Moscow, it is over 40!). For comparison, in the developed countries of Europe this ratio ranges between 6 and 9, and in Scandinavia it is 3-4 (according to Izvestia, August 9, 2007). Fifteen to twenty percent of Muscovites are living below the poverty line. The figure will be much higher if hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants living and working in the city are counted. These people have neither social nor medical security. As of 2007, there were more than 100,000 dollar millionaires in Russia, and the country made it among the world leaders in terms of the number of dollar billionaires (around one hundred before the crisis; some 50 in the beginning of 2009). The top/bottom income ratio is climbing, while in a country moving along the path of progress it is supposed to converge11. "Millions of people placed their most cherished hopes with the reforms of the early 1990s, but neither authorities nor businesspeople lived up to these hopes. Moreover, some of them trampled on both the law and moral principles for the sake of personal enrichment at the expense of the vast majority of the population, something without a precedent in the history of our country," quoted from Vladimir Putin (2006). A considerable part of the Russian population suffered a decline in level of consumption compared to the Soviet era12. The periodic raises of salaries and pensions are mostly devoured by inflation. There are different approaches to assessing the rate of inflation, and different sources present differing numbers. With labor efficiency equaling one-fifth or a quarter of that in the world's leading countries, our salaries and social benefits
Besides, there is an outrageous gap between the ostentatiously ample consumption by the elite and the stark poverty of the masses is fraught with social instability which might be particularly strong in the times of crises, such as financial crisis. 10 Alexander Solzhenitsyn: "Things have gone tough in Russia since the 1990s. Instead of economic and moral cure of the country, the upper hand was quickly taken up by the dark forces the most unscrupulous robbers who embarked on personal enrichment through no-holds-barred plunder of the country's national wealth while sowing seeds of cynicism and moral decline in society... Of course, the escape from communism could not have been easy. But they chose this inextricable and extravagant path, the hardest one," quoted from Izvestia, December 2008. 11 In addition to rich proprietors, there is a bracket of high-paid administrators with salaries around one million rubles per month, i.e. 50 or even more times the amounts paid to the vast majority of employees and to the dozens of millions of pensioners in the country. 12 It is easy to calculate that many brackets of the population, pensioners, for example, could buy more staples in the Soviet time than they can buy today.
9

In effect, there were several incidents of property redivision in Russia that were initiated or implemented from atop: One under Ivan the Terrible, another one under Peter the Great, the third one after the Bolshevik Revolution and, finally, in the late 1980s. Speaking in Krasnoyarsk in February 2008, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev remarked: "Over the last 20 years we have been through a difficult process of creating entrepreneurial environment in the country. In the atmosphere of chaos and lawlessness our people had to balance between the criminals who threatened to relieve them of their property and the mighty foreign capital who had every opportunity to buy up all more or less attractive assets. Obviously, it took people some time to understand that this time free market economy arrived not as yet another short-lived phase, like the New Economic Policy was. That is why most proprietors preferred to keep most of their proceeds abroad, just in case. Many went even farther and "bought" themselves some extra citizenship. Part of the population is still in "social coma", i.e. they see neither opportunities nor prospects for improving their living standards. Hence hard drinking and very high suicide rate."9 Academician Vyacheslav Stepin (The Epoch of Change and Scenarios for the Future, 1996): "Heavily, with squeaks, overcoming enormous resistance, had Russia embarked on the path of reforms. Disappointment of people is obvious. They hoped for quick improvements, but the period of transition turned out to be much longer and harder than it could have been expected from the promises given by many democrats on their way to power. Meanwhile, quite a few representatives of the new elite from top-ranking government officers and deputies to local government officers and deputies started actively using their position for personal gains."10

riches, wound up in the hands of a select few, most of who received their slices of the pie thanks to luck, audacity and imagination. The beginning of a new, free-market, era was accompanied by legal chaos and paralysis of the regulatory structures, which allowed many to make a quick dollar (however, the legality of this capital is now being questioned).

Chapter 7

121

A report by the Gorbachev Fund states that "As an international event, perestroika meant a willful rejection of the attitude of dividing the world into our people and outsiders, the practice of a separate and secluded existence of socialist countries in self-imposed isolation and the maniacal desire to impose our lifestyle upon the outside world." The old ideology has been exploded, and so far we have not obtained anything new that would determine the rules of behavior for citizens of a stable and prosperous country15 specifically, we need to develop legal awareness and moral principles. The same can be

are about one-seventh to one-tenth of those in the developed countries. Presented in the image below are average monthly salaries of some categories of hired employees in Russia and the United States (from Forbes, April 2009 and Izvestia, May 12, 2009). It is very illustrative to compare the present quality of life of the Soviet Army veterans who won the Great Patriotic War and that of the former soldiers of the defeated Nazi army13. In the provinces and rural areas of Russia, people manage to survive mostly by living off of their small private farms. If in the past subsistence farming provided for approximately 25% of total food consumption, presently the figure is definitely much higher. Those who failed to find a place for themselves in the new system are nostalgic about the Soviet past: the romantic hopes of the early perestroika period have fallen apart and turned into disappointment and apathy. Many of these factors, plus uncertainty about the future, have pushed the birth rate down. The 20 years that have passed since the start of the economic reforms have seen privatization of state property and liberalization of foreign trade, consumer prices have approached the world level and the market became saturated with goods something the country had not seen for many decades. At the same time, we have witnessed a decline in the country's industrial production14, and the small and medium businesses have not developed well enough. Russia's present socioeconomic system is sometimes referred to as oligarchic capitalism, or even criminal capitalism. The first cohort of Russian businesspeople included many of the former Soviet elite, the so-called "red directors" and Communist Party and Komsomol functionaries. Practically no restrictions were imposed on former Soviet-era functionaries occupying posts in the state power structures of the new Russia (see Chapter 8 about lustration in the countries of Eastern Europe). Some limitations were imposed on the activities of the Communist Party, but these were later lifted.

State Duma Deputy Vladimir Ryzhkov made a harsh statement on the issue in May 2006: "military spending is given top priority and is the biggest item of expenditure in the state budget; military budget has nearly quadrupled over the last several years. The second large item of expenditure is government-funded investments, which are often inefficient. Half of the money is embezzled. Third on the priority list are salaries and other costs related to government agencies and bureaucrats. Public education, health care, social programs and research science are given low priority. Government funding of the spheres listed above is much higher not only in the world's leading countries, but in certain developing countries too (in South Korea, for example, public education receives 20% of the state budget, while in Russia the corresponding figure is 3%). The structure of budgetary spending needs revision, priorities should be changed in favor of research science, education and health care instead of bureaucrats, law enforcement agencies, defense and the inefficient state investments. "Our political culture is oriented toward a strong leader a tsar, a president or a general secretary. In other words, in this sense we are more vassals than citizens. With such a political culture, Russia will irrevocably lose in global competition; in effect, Russia is already losing it. We are losing not only to South Korea, but also to Brazil, India and China in terms of economic growth rate, volume of investments and confidence in the judicial system. We are losing because we have a backward political system and enormously corrupt elite." 14 "As things stand today, Russia is producing 80 and 30 times less metal processing equipment than Japan and China do, respectively," according to Nikolay Panichev, former minister of the Soviet Union's Machine Tools and Equipment Industry, said (quoted from the Russian Federation Today magazine, August 16, 2006). The Soviet Union used to be world's second large producer of metal processing equipment. Demand for such equipment in Russia today is 30 and 15 times less than in China and Japan, respectively. Production of aircraft for civil aviation is now only one-tenth of what it used to be. However, those defense industry enterprises which are exporting modern military hardware, have managed to survive. 15 It is not clear whether it is possible to call our country a prosperous one.
13

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

122

said about the situation regarding our democratic institutions, media, courts of law, etc.16. No mechanisms have been established for society's self-regulation and self-control. "Just like it was in the Soviet and pre-Soviet times, the people have absolutely no influence on the authorities who are unbalanced and not controlled by the public or public institutions; the authorities are guided only by their personal interests for enrichment and self-preservation. In the meantime, the public is fed the story about a transition from the Soviet totalitarianism to a democracy," quoted from Yuri Afanasiev's article We Are Not Slaves, published in Novaya Gazeta, December 5, 2008). "Today we have almost forgotten how passionately had the whole nation watched the TV back in 1987-2000. It was different then, as the television ought to be, and reflected a number of historical epochs, including the collapse of the empire, democratic romanticism and capitalist temptation. Back then, TV characters were actually talking, not merely serving as a background or rating-making crowd... Television was civil. Television of the 1990s is over now as it has been replaced by a one with all-the-same monotonously read news, "factory of stars," game-shows, pretended debates, positive glamour and trash political analysis... Balance is broken between the side where there are games of vice, lechery and horror, ostentatious shows of luxury, scandals and half-world stars and the side represented by such eternal values as dignity, valor, labor and mercy," quoted from Anna Kachkayeva, head of the Chair of Radio and Television at the Moscow State University's Department of Journalism, May 2009).

Having quite easily accepted a new, free, way of life, a large part of the Russian population has not still developed the feeling of personal responsibility for what is going on around them: from minor, local-scale issues to nationwide problems. According to Freedom House (2009), Russia is only No. 174 (out of total 195) in the world in terms of freedom of press, and our economic freedom index is not much better No. 120 out of total 161, according to Heritage Foundation (2007). The historical tradition of overcentralization created the habit of waiting for instructions from above, and this habit has been instilled even in those who are supposed to be decision-makers themselves. As the experience of a number of countries indicates, the prevalence of horizontal ties, as opposed to an overcentralized economy based on a top-down system of command17 is critically significant for successful development of a modern free market economy. In effect, the situation largely depends on specific national traditions or national character18. After all, humility and submissiveness to the authorities with no personal responsibility were hammered into the minds of the Russian people for many centuries19. It is also important how effectively the government enforces the law, how successfully it fights corruption, how stable the situation is in politics and society, and how effectively the system of government works given the colossal number of bureaucrats in Russia today20. The table below (from Izvestia, April 14, 2009) illustrates how the army of bureaucrats gained numbers over the past century. It is often said that democracy and liberalism have failed in Russia21, and that it is time for us to shift to a harsher system of government22. Russia continues looking for an optimal economic system for itself a "mixed" economic model that is a combination of state governance and freedom of entrepreneurship23.
16 "A law-governed court means not just formal compliance with the law and disconnection of the direct telephone used for taking orders from the top. It also means a well-established system of professional ethics and civil society that may impose sanctions on judges should they violate established procedures" (Yegor Gaidar). 17 A legacy of our traditional overcentralization is the special, privileged status of Moscow. From 70 to 80% of the total amount of cash in circulation is in Moscow, and up to 80% of top-level decisions are made in the capital. Muscovites enjoy higher incomes, but prices are higher there as well. Moscow is one of the world's most expensive cities to live in. 18 Why do they not give more freedom to entrepreneurship and to the people? "For several reasons. In essence, because of the fear of giving up the reins. The Russian economy is like a dashing Russian troika-bird. You never know what it is up to. Business is still greedy. And irresponsible. If left unwatched, they immediately start doing wrong polluting the environment or feeding people something toxic" (Alexander Livshits, economist). 19 Discussing the problems associated with changing the mindset of the Russian people, it is appropriate to quote Alexander Pushkin: "But it was time and toiling squandered,/Benevolent designs misspent.../Graze on, graze on, submissive nation!/You will not wake to honor's call./Why offer herds their liberation?/For them are shears or slaughter-stall." 20 Here is just one illustrative example: hundreds of thousands of passenger cars used for servicing the Russian army of bureaucrats. For comparison, the total number of service cars with drivers provided to state servants in the United States and Great Britain is several dozen; also, a limited number of government employees in these countries receive monetary compensations for gasoline and depreciation of their personal vehicles. 21 Was indeed Alexander Herzen right when he said that at least two unwhipped generations are required for Russia to become free?

Chapter 7

123

As was noted above, we were lucky that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation experienced mostly peaceful shakeups24. Several clashes in Moscow, though claimed human lives, did not develop into a large-scale civil war25. Chechen War was a tragedy as it led to numerous deaths, instability in the Caucasus and overall tension in the country (see Chapter 5). There have been, however, far more dramatic examples of state disintegration in the recent past such as wars in some of the former Soviet Union countries, Yugoslavia and some others. So What Do We Need? The National Idea Today As regards our national idea for the near future, is can be formulated as follows: to restore the country, catch up with the world's leading countries and change the people's mentality and attitudes while preserving the country's statehood and territorial integrity. (By this I mean the territory now remaining: Russia remains the world's largest country, although it is no longer one-sixth of the world, only one-ninth; in terms of population, Russia's share is only 2.2% of the total 6.57 billion). The principal goals to be achieved (importantly, they should be achieved not in some distant future but in the lifetime of the present generation and for the vast majority of those currently living) include improvement of living standards and increasing life expectancy. How to achieve these goals, which path to choose? These are the questions needing solution. Having pulled through many calamities, ideological vacillations, wars and cataclysms, world civilization has arrived at the conclusion that most important values are dignity, well-being, freedom and quality of life for each citizen. (Similar goals have often been declared in the history of humanity, regardless of the true motives and intentions of those in power). The Constitution of the Russian Federation specifically reads that "the Russian Federation shall be a social state, the policies of which shall be aimed at creating conditions that ensure a dignified life and free development of man." There shall not be anything superior to individual interests in all countries and communities. It shall not be permitted that individual interests are sacrificed for the sake of high-sounding slogans, particularly such is impermissible if done regularly and on a massive scale. As Nikolai Shmelev wrote, "we should relieve our minds of the chimeras of our Messianic role in the world and start living for realistic and understandable goals: to build a home; to create a garden; to pave a road; to open a hospital, a school, a nursing home; to support science and culture well, to make it brief to arrange, at last, a life in our vast country." There should be opportunities provided for the people to develop their talents and natural aptitudes, there should be adequate social benefits provided to those in need and there should be modern-quality medical care and services. It is important to avoid the danger of sliding back into totalitarianism where reforms are conducted according to the well-known scenario described by Saltykov-Shchedrin: "How to make a poor and miserable country into a rich and prosperous one? 1. From now on refer to it as rich and prosperous. 2. Increase the number of policemen."26 We need, moreover, a clear-cut concept for the country's social and economic development for the next 8-10 years and further. There are official documents in which our principal goal is formulated as providing comfortable living for the people27. One of the phrasings of Russia's national idea is "ensuring well being for the citizens of Russia on the basis of economic development, social stability and environmental sustainability." Sometimes, this goal is formulated briefly: the "struggle against poverty."28 It is appropriate to add to that struggle against short life expectancy and depopulation. Among other mottos, there is "Sovereignty, Democracy, and Quality of Life" and "Patriotism and Social Justice." Of course, for the right goal to be reached, the country should be properly managed and occupy its deserved place in the world community, a place that is reflective of the talent of its people and its natural riches29. It is up to the government to protect its citizens from external threats, criminals and natural and manmade disasters and to ensure education, health care, pensions, an effective legal
22 "We are a country trapped in the feudalism. And several more generations will have to live with it. We hate being bossed, but at the same time we cannot do without bosses and do not want to. Therefore, having rid ourselves of bosses we very soon discover that it is even worse without them and all starts again from the beginning," quoted from Boris Strugatskiy. 23 Member of the CPSU Central Committee Anatoly Chernyaev: "Perestroika was essential, but its failure was equally inevitable. Not because Gorbachev botched his job. The reason lies much deeper. The fact is that the nation had been too much maimed over those 70 years which is why it lacked intrinsic intellectual energy to produce a new elite which could lead it ahead." 24Things went worse in a number of former Soviet Union republic. There was much bloodshed in Tajikistan and the republics of Transcaucasia. 25 The clashes in Moscow in October 1993 claimed about 140 human lives. 26 It often happened in history that in response to pressure exerted from the top, people resorted to tricks and scams to bypass law. While displaying their humility to the authorities, people kept a fig in the pocket. 27 In addition to sufficient income, the "concept of comfort includes rule of law, clean streets, quality roads, friendly traffic police, inviolability of property, privacy Everything else will develop on this foundation," quoted from Professor Anatoly Rakitov. 28 Boris Strugatskiy: "Winning a victory over poverty requires a meticulous, consistent and purposeful work, without any interruptions for ideological acrobatics, but permanently fueled with cautious and properly dosed reforms. No geopolitical spasms, no superpower slogans and no nationalistic ravings. And demagogy too. Victory over poverty is in itself a titanic exploit, the greatest historic victory one can ever conceive." 29 After all, we just can't acknowledge and reconcile ourselves with the thought that our immense natural riches are making us lazy and incapable of purposeful labor. Neither Germans nor Japanese can allow such for themselves. In order to live (all the more so, to live long and prosperous lives), they have to work skillfully and actively, organize their production and their living in general in a best way possible.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

124

system and other necessary conditions for successful economic development. The duty of each citizen shall be support of the government and providing contribution to common prosperity. "Making use of its unique natural resources and having passed through decades of the heaviest troubles and overexertion of its peoples, the Soviet Union attained colossal military might and a relatively high, albeit lopsided, level of economic development. However, the people's quality of life is poor and the degree of civil freedoms is even lower than that in the smaller socialist countries," quoted from Andrey Sakharov, 1975. Recalling the not-so-long-ago arms race of the two opposing colossi, it is appropriate to present an excerpt from the Mikhail Saltykov-Shchedrin's famous book The History of a Town: "if a powerful act by an idiot turns the whole world into a desert, such a result will not scare the idiot. Who knows, it may be that a desert is, in his opinion, precisely the environment that is best reflective of the ideal form of commonwealth for humanity." "The difference between the ages at death of people suffering from similar diseases in Russia and the United States is from 5 to 13 years. Another ghastly feature of modern-day Russia is a huge difference between life expectancies for men and women. The difference was 10 years before the reforms and is 13 years now," says Zaslavskaya. It is impermissible for us to have such a short life expectancy, all the more so given that the quality of life is so poor in our part of the world30, 31. Superpower ambitions give many of us no peace even today. After all, quite recently this country used to be one of the biggest statepowers, and in the century just past it was one of the two mightiest and most influential countries. Without doubt, we cannot permit being reduced to a second-rate power the citizens of which are not respected and their interests ignored, and it is far from an easy task to find and maintain one's place in the world community. Anyway, Russia has every reason to be one of the poles of the new (changing) world order. It is dangerous to be weak in a world in which someone may wish to seize our wealth. Moreover, 65% of Russia's territory (approximately 10 million square kilometers) remains undeveloped. In the longer run, it may be a problem for Russia to maintain control of the territories to the east of the Urals, which contain 75% of the country's natural resources and are populated by less than 20 million people. If we proceed at our current pace, a hundred years will not be enough for us to develop Siberia. Overpopulated China is nearby, and its people will find ways to migrate northward; the most peaceful option will be for the Chinese to establish mixed families with Russians32, and set up business establishments in Russia. In addition to geographical proximity, Russia and China have similarities in recent history. In addition, in the next several decades Russia will be badly short of labor force, while millions (or maybe even hundreds of millions) are forecast to be unemployed in China. Plans are being discussion for possible creation of mutual economic zones in Siberia and long-term leasing of Russian land there33. The Russian-Chinese military exercises, followed by Russian-Indian military exercises and military exercises of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member countries, have created a significant political precedent. Not long ago, we actively supported the Afghan Northern Alliance and quietly reacted to the appearance of the American military in the southern CIS countries: it is difficult to counter the pressure of the Muslim world without allying with the West34. A significant military and political move was the creation of the Collective Rapid-Reaction Force in the early 2009. It included Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan35. They are supposed to be no inferior to similar NATO force. Our military opportunities depend on our military budget, which equals approximately $50 billion in 2009; reequipment of the Armed Forces with modern military hardware is under way. Military spending of the United States are by more than an order of magnitude bigger and are permanently growing: At this moment, they are
30 "2.3 million people die in Russia every year, which, recalculated per every 100,000 of the population, is twice as many as in Europe or in the United States. The suicide rate in Russia is three times as high as the world average," according to Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Robert Nigmatulin. 31 "Immediately after the Chernobyl disaster the average life expectancy in our country started rapidly going down; after 1991, the decline turned into slump due to social and economic reasons. But it was Chernobyl disaster that marked the beginning. In effect, Chernobyl was one of the causes of glasnost. 830,000 people were involved in the Chernobyl cleanup effort and about 10 million people directly suffered from the catastrophe. That was impossible to hush up. Society was shocked as the secret information on environmental pollution, use of pesticides, composition of butter, chocolate and other foodstuffs was made public, and a massive environmental protection movement was launched. Then the movement was joined by everyone who was dissatisfied with the system, and this cause the authorities to become worried. Maybe today we are witnessing something of the same sort... Recently I happened to participate in a public rally protesting against VIP hunting in the Altai. The motto of the rally was: We Are Against the Scoundrels Who Are Shooting at Rams."(Alexei Yablokov, Internet, Ecology and Human Rights, Report ECO-HR.3251, June 29, 2009.) 32 We should not to attach too much significance to this. There were, after all, more than 25 million mixed families in the Soviet Union, and this did not cause any problems. The only difference was that these were all families composed of the citizens of one country. 33 The goods turnover between Russia and China is expected to exceed 60-70 billion dollars per year or more by 2010. 34 The several most active and militant groups of the Arab East are currently spearheaded against Israel (and its ally and patron the United States). If it were not for this opposition, tensions could have emerged at the Russia's southern borders in the Caucasus or Central Asia. 35 These countries are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization which was established back on 1992.

Chapter 7

125

One of logical ways of Russia's development is that of closer cooperation with the developed countries of the world which are akin to us in culture, rapprochement with the European Union. Now I would like to present selected statements of my contemporaries on the subject. "We should develop economic ties with Europe, which is our closest neighbor and akin to us in culture. Ideally, we should have a free economic zone with Europe without any restrictions imposed," Sergei Karaganov, political scientist. "We have no alternative to developing in the Western direction. Of course, we should do this with due respect for our national peculiarities. Our habits and patterns of behavior, manifestations of which can be found even in legal institutions, hamper this... It is possible to modernize the country from the grassroots, putting the main stress on individual freedom, free will and people's desire to live better," Yevgeny Yasin, economist. "Without performing a critical evaluation of our past, without condemning it, we will never build a dignified future. Thus far, Russia's development has been more reminiscent of a drift, which depends on changeable winds and currents, but, nevertheless, it is gravitating to the Western coast," Vladimir Voinovich, writer. "The present-day advantage of Europe lies in their remarkable pursuit of rational arrangement, search for a peaceful way, doing everything possible to avoid political catastrophes or mental eclipses. It is not clear whether they succeed or not, but at least in this sense, Russia, which is now learning how to use democracy, is in Europe. Also, here are the intellectual resources without access to which modernization of our country will not be possible. Cooperation in science, technology and higher education, establishing multinational corporations specializing in high-tech and science-intensive fields could help tie our economy with the economies of Europe and America more strongly and effectively than the primitive supplies of raw materials do. Living to the west of Russia are both those who want to subdue Russia and those seeking mutually beneficial cooperation. As regards the former, we can demonstrate them our decisiveness to assert our sovereignty and as regards the latter, we can approach them with openness, flexibility and proposals of effective cooperation. Important for Russia's development policy is not to drop out of Europe and to stick to the West. Speaking of our present plights, we have terrorism still not rooted out, we have worn down infrastructures, we have badly underfunded schools and hospitals, our technological backwardness is appalling, our social protection is very poor and our creative forces are scanty and scarce. What we are rich in today is not the goals we set or values we assert, but our oil and gas." (Vladislav Surkov, First Deputy Head of the Russian President's Administration, main ideologist of the Kremlin).

approximately equal to $550 billion (the addition of the certain research programs, will bring the figure up to nearly $650 billion). China is No. 2 with its $70 billion strong military budget. Russian army is currently being reequipped with upgraded missiles, submarines and other hardware. Periodically published in the media are announcement of Russia's military high ranks to the effect that defense security of our country is impossible without a mighty nuclear potential36. (In effect, the possession by a country of the amount of nuclear bombs which is sufficient to eliminate life of this planet can be viewed as kind of defensive potential. After all, threatening to obliterate the world and itself is an extreme form of defense). What will we do to stand up to external threats and raise the people's quality of life sufficiently rapidly? It will suffice to look at Finland, a former province of the Russian Empire, which is far from rich in natural resources, to understand that we have been moving in the wrong direction for many years now. Or take Sweden: for hundreds of years, the country had strong imperial ambitions, but it has long since given them up. In 1913, Russia was 23rd in the world in terms of per capita GDP, and in the recent past, with a windfall of petrodollars, our ranking is somewhere near the 100th place. If you take a look at the last two centuries of Russia's history, you will discover that the country has been steadily falling behind the world leaders. "For Russia, this time span included two revolutions; the collapse of two empires, two world wars, one civil war and the biggest socioeconomic experiment in history, called 'socialism,' and its failure. This notwithstanding, over these centuries Russia managed to maintain its gap of backwardness relative to the largest countries of continental Europe at a stable level of approximately two generations (50 years). Economic growth in Western Europe began in the 1880s, while in Russia it began roughly two generations later, and since then the gap has remained. Of course, it would not be correct to conclude that this gap is fixed and will remain forever," Yegor Gaidar wrote in Vestnik Evropy, No. 9, 2003.

It appears that we should look for options for developing closer cooperation with EU. A number of Western politicians support such ideas. If we join united Europe, we will have fewer neighbors who are potential military adversaries and we will be able to count on collective defense from the other threats that might emerge. Europe too would acquire new opportunities from a closer cooperation with Russia. However, there are opponents too who argue that by stepping on the way of Westernization and contributing to the processes of globalization we will risk losing our identity. This is, in fact, a continuation of the age-old dispute between Westernizers and Slavophiles. For more than once, beginning from the time of Peter the Great, Russia has made "drives to the West," attempts to catch up with it and leave it behind. Such campaigns almost always led to polarization of opinions and discord in society. The following quote from Pyotr Chaadayev about
36 In January 2000, then-president of Russia Vladimir Putin signed a decree "On the Changes to the National Security Concept" establishing that Russia admits its first use of nuclear weapons for repelling aggressor provided that all other means had been insufficient.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

126

Russian history is frequently found in the press: "We (Russians) are among those nations that do not fit into the structure of humanity but are here only in order to serve as a kind of lesson to the world. The lesson we are destined to provide will assuredly not be lost, but who knows when we shall find ourselves amid humanity and how much misery we will suffer before we see our destiny accomplished?" Perhaps, Russia's rapprochement with the EU could also help alleviate certain tensions in the foreign policy. After all, it is hardly possible to call present situation favorable as far as our relations with neighboring countries (such as Ukraine, Georgia, the Baltic States and some of the former Soviet bloc countries of Eastern Europe) are concerned. Also, there are issues in our relations with Belarus, Moldova and Azerbaijan (which side Russia will take when time comes to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue?). Our relations with Great Britain have deteriorated, and there are tensions with the United States. After a nearly 20-year-long lull, we are sending military hardware toward their borders, while the United States, for their part, are considering deployment of defensive (?) systems in Eastern Europe. Military expenses of both Russia and the United States are increasing which is reminiscent of the bad old Cold War. Why should we need it again? All the more so that now we have less resources to burn and calamities are still fresh in our memory. Fortunately, certain statements and actions of the new U.S. administration give reasons to hope for improvement of Russia's relations with the United States and with the West in general. In planning our future, we should have the dynamics of a quickly changing world in mind It is very important that Russia's geographical position allows us to maintain close ties not only with Europe, but also with East and Central Asia. In addition to its membership in the UN, G8 and numerous international organizations and bilateral treaties and agreements within the CIS space, Russia is a member of the Shanghai Six and the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation37. Globalization processes may lead to closer integration not only in Europe, but also to the removal (at first liberalization) of borders and termination of military conflicts in other parts of the world. I would wish to hope that such processes will spread over broader areas, and in the longer run over the whole world. Humanity may simply have no alternative. Establishing alliances embracing large groups of countries appears to be the best approach to coexistence in a multipolar world at this stage (for a more detailed analysis, see Section 5, Geopolitics, of Chapter 18). We should try to figure out what the world will be like in the future. It is important to take into account that transformations are taking place at an increasing rate. Although at the moment we are mostly concerned about the problems facing our country, the problems endangering humanity as a whole are coming to the fore today: environmental pollution, conflicts involving weapons of mass destruction, the possibility of new kinds of dangerous weapons appearing in the near future, increase in the income gap between the rich and poor countries and economic crises. These issues are becoming a matter of top priority for the leaders of all countries and for the world community as a whole. Although antiterrorist cooperative efforts with the West represent one of the important areas in Russian policy, Russia should maintain normal relations with the Muslim world as well, as it plays a significant role in Russia's life. Muslims constitute a considerable proportion of Russia's population, and Russia also has close ties with Central Asia and the Middle East. Also important is our country's stance and involvement in cooperative efforts directed at developing and implementing a strategic plan to eliminate the threat of use of weapons of mass destruction. As a result of the Cold War, two great powers Russia and the United States are ahead of all others in nuclear, chemical and biological warfare technologies. These two great powers can (and should!) assume a major share of responsibility and, with financial and other support from other countries, proceed with the effort of developing systems for detection, monitoring and interdiction of biological and chemical weapons. Also, Russia and the United States should champion organizational and legislative efforts aimed at elimination of these threats. Russia and the United States should express a common opinion on these issues in international organizations. Perhaps we should better show off our farsightedness and great power ambition38 by being more active in the most important sphere looking for nonviolent ways of conflict resolution and positive transformation of people's consciousness. Here it is appropriate to recall what Fyodor Dostoevsky said more than
37 Activation is reportedly taking place within the Eurasian Economic Community (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan), specifically the establishment of common markets for oil, gas, grain and currency. 38 We have the right be proud of our great culture literature, music, fine arts and science but we should not forget that other nations have great cultures as well, such as Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Spain, India, China and the Muslim countries. Unfortunately, Russia is losing many of the high positions it used to hold in this field, including the number of our compatriots among the winners of the Nobel Prize and other international prizes, citation frequency of Russian researchers, the number of new technologies developed and introduced in the country and, consequently, the quality and level of life and life expectancy in the country.

Chapter 7

127

120 years ago: "yes, it is indubitable that the Russian people have a pan-European and pan-world destination. Becoming a real Russian means only becoming a brother to all people This means bringing reconciliation to European contradictions and pronouncing the last word for a great common harmony in the final fraternal accord of all peoples..." It is not clear at the moment for how many more years we will be able to keep balance just by selling out our natural resources. Mastering cutting edge technologies is the necessary condition for achieving prosperity in the modern world. The only effective way to achieve this is not to develop all inventions and discoveries on our own but to absorb the latest achievements made by others and to move forward where possible39. Here it is appropriate to recall how in the 1930s we performed industrialization to a large extent by importing foreign factories and technologies and inviting their specialists. The process of mastering cutting edge technologies and establishing joint ventures with foreign partners is going on today; however, the tempo is too slow for Russia to overcome its backwardness any time soon. Unfortunately, perestroika made many research scientists redundant and forced them to emigrate. In addition, many research institutions had no choice but to go into commercial activities just in order to survive. Instead of doing research, these institutes offered their rooms for rent40. Degradation of schools. We cannot afford to procrastinate on implementing reforms also because of the ongoing process of degradation of schools that were created by the efforts of several generations. By this I mean schools in research science, engineering, arts, sports and other fields of activity. The most talented people, those were ahead of their time, attracted students and for years they worked hard to develop the traditions and systems of teaching (hence the term "schools"); such schools helped to maintain leading positions in certain fields for a long time41. Knowledge and skills were passed on from one generation to another, which ensured progressive development. Preservation of schools represents a serious problem today: Specialists, athletes, etc. find better conditions for realization of their talents in other countries, including well-equipped laboratories and training centers, funding, etc. Reportedly, 200,000 doctors of science and candidates of science have left Russia42. The total number of people employed in the fields of science and related services, which used to be about 1.5 million people in the Soviet Union, has plummeted by approximately 50%. About one-third of those leaving Russia wind up in the United States and approximately 20% go to Germany (most are physicists and biologists, 30% and 25%, respectively). "About one million specialists, who formed the nation's intellectual backbone, have fled abroad since 1990. I'm afraid this might cause degradation of the whole nation on the genetic level," Academician Alexander Dynkin said (quoted from Izvestia, March 13, 2009). (It should be noted that over the last 10-20 years the Russian diaspora has acquired relatively strong positions in many Western companies). Many of our young people who study abroad do not come back to Russia after graduating43. Some will probably repatriate later, after they have matured (as happened, for example, with the Chinese), but many will assimilate and stay in their new homeland for good44. Working in the field of scientific research in Russia today are mostly people well into their middle age, and there is virtually nobody there to come in their place and ensure an adequate level of research in the decades to come. This situation is unacceptable, and radical measures need to be taken to correct it. Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Yuri Kagan says that "it will not be possible for the country to ensure its political, economic and intellectual security, or even independence, without an advanced and strong science" (interview in V Mire Nauki, No. 4, 2006).
39 Vitally important is not only to acquire such cutting-edge science and technology developments, but to learn to implement them, to bring them to industrial use and mass production. It was the lack of these skills the Soviet science had badly suffered from. Currently, Russia's share of the world market of knowledge-intensive products is less than 1%, while the United States and Japan own approximately 30% each. "We should increase support for fundamental sciences and simultaneously we should improve organization of research work. We should implement megaprojects, focusing resources, talents and government attention in those directions where critical technological breakthroughs are expected. In these directions we should maintain close cooperation with the businesses to make sure we are not losing the chances given to us today and not finding ourselves outside of the civilization's development path," President Dmitry Medvedev said while visiting Krasnoyarsk in 2008. 40 The invigoration of the real estate market and the lucrative apartment renting business created a the situation in which the 'generals' of science found ways for personal enrichment, while research scientists en masse are leading a miserable existence. Such enrichment has nothing to do with science or its intellectual potential (Izvestia, June 30, 2005). Similar situation is observed with lots of industrial enterprises where production is stopped, equipment is taken away, and premises are leased for use as warehouses, stores or offices. 41 A more detailed analysis of the school issue leads one to conclude that the situation is more complicated. Sometimes, due to the domination of older authorities, new ideas are not given room and cannot develop, especially ideas that explode established dogmas. It happens sometimes that, after the collapse of an old school, talented young people with new ideas come out of it, build up a new team and achieve great results. The best option is probably to preserve the schools, but to maintain a democratic system within them so that bold and daring ideas are not suppressed. 42 There are no exact statistics available, and the term "scientific worker" can be defined in different ways. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that precisely the most talented and proactive young researchers, plus, of course, world-renowned scientists, have chosen to leave this country and were accepted abroad. 43 The Moscow State University ranked No. 76 in the Shanghai Jiao Tong University's rating of universities of the world for year 2007. 44 Incidentally, the elite and moneyed prefer to send their children to study abroad, buy them homes there and seek to obtain foreign citizenship for them. According to information published in the press, hundreds of thousands of Russians have put down roots in Great Britain.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

128

Here it is appropriate to recall Swedish experience. Back in the first half of the 20th century, Swedish social-democrats argued that society should be judged by how it cares about its most vulnerable strata of the population. They maintained that any political power should in deeds, not in words, ensure well-being for all citizens. In Sweden, adequate support is ensured for children, the younger generation, the elderly, and the sick and disabled; there are various kinds of benefits, stipends, etc. Thanks to their long-term and consistent pursuit of properly targeted social and economic policies and non-involvement in wars, Sweden and several other countries succeeded in creating an affluent society46.

There exists a rather widespread opinion, however, that the contribution made by our people to human civilization as a whole is important, while it is not so important in which particular country they work and make their discoveries. It is more important that they are provided with the best possible conditions for their work. If humanity ever develops into a single commonwealth, such an approach will become justifiable and acceptable45. It is believed that the country's true face reflects itself through its attitude toward the weak. Sometimes it is argued that only a great power is able to provide adequate protection for its citizens. If so, let us have a look at how we protect our weak people, the disabled first of all. The word "disabled" means "of limited ability," which implies that these people need special care. Do we have special lifts for the disabled on public transport? Do we have special appliances for the disabled in public places? What do we do to promote adaptation of handicapped children? How can our care for the disabled be evaluated in comparison to that in Great Britain, Germany and many other developed countries? Do we provide our disabled people with equipment they need for comfortable living? And finally, do they have enough money for a living and to buy medicines they need? Besides, is there enough money for families with three or more children and other categories of citizens needing special care and support? The answer to most of these questions is in the negative. This is not so much because we are poor as it is because we do not set the right priorities. The money we once gratuitously provided to various parties and movements in foreign countries or spent on developing new types of weapons would have been sufficient for resolving some of these issues. Life is much harder for the disabled in this part of the world than in the developed countries. It is harder for them to move around, find a job, etc. The practice of adopting handicapped children (including from Russia), their subsequent raising, upbringing and education is widespread and common in the world. Another problem is the life of the hundreds of thousands of orphans and their subsequent adaptation; many of them have bleak prospects. Closer relations with other countries may allow us to adopt their best practices in various fields, including in the ways they care for people needing special attention. While formulating our national idea, it is important to give sufficient attention to the issue of ensuring dignified living conditions for the disabled. This bracket of the population comprises many millions of our compatriots.

The issue of ethnic relations is particularly important for Russia, as it is a multiethnic country. For many centuries, first the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union succeeded in maintaining effective cooperation between dozens of nations and ethnic groups, while preserving stability of the unique mixed civilization. Russians, Tatars, Ukrainians and persons of many other ethnicities are citizens of Russia. Statements like "consolidating the role of the Russian people (who constitute 80% of the population) in the formation of a unified civil community," often appear in official documents. Relations between different religious denominations are of great importance as well. "Cooperation between Orthodox Christians and Muslims has existed in Russia for many centuries. It has never been interrupted, not even during the Soviet period when we together opposed atheistic repressions. In recent years, our friendship has been consolidated through mutual efforts to resolve our common problems such as ethnic conflicts and terrorist threats" (former Patriarch of Moscow and all Russia, late Alexii II). Representatives of minority peoples have often held (and hold) high posts and received public recognition. At the same time, Russian history contains such negative facts as the Pale (under the tsarist regime), massive deportations along ethnic lines and degradation of certain northern peoples. The collapse of the Soviet Union also did not adorn our history. Government management system, including its cumbersome structure, poor efficiency and the high number of bureaucrats, have always been a problem aggravated by Russia's vast territory, habitual bribery, nepotism and law evasion. Saltykov-Shchedrin wrote: "Strictness of Russian laws is compensated by their poor enforcement."

45 Bill Gates argues that progress is not so much in technical developments as it is in the broadening of our mental horizons. We, he maintains, owe quite a few impressive victories to the childish enthusiasm of some boy wonder whose genius takes the world to its most crucial and unpredictable breakthroughs. Intelligence and creativity are the principal national wealth, Thomas Friedman wrote. The Japanese came to acknowledge this long ago, which is why they treasure their gifted children and spare no money for their education and development. Israel has an effective program of education targeted at gifted children, and this program is classified as a state secret. The United States has established an effective system for talent encouragement and development. Denis Diderot said that geniuses fall from the sky. Sometimes they are lucky to land by palace gates, but in the remaining hundred thousand cases they miss. 46 According to recent data, per capita GDP in Russia is equal to about $10,000 making Russia 60th in the world in terms of this indicator. Topping the list are Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Ireland and Australia.

Chapter 7

129

Russia's judicial system is in need of radical upgrading too. "The only way [to achieve that] lies through radical improvement of the law enforcement situation. It is important to achieve noticeable improvements in the judicial system. We should do everything to make our people see it for themselves that a law court is a place where justice is done, where they can find protection from lawbreakers, be it a street hoodlum of a bureaucrat. In effect, a bureaucrat who does not abide by the law undermines people's faith in the supremacy of law and in democracy in general. Our top priority for the next four years shall be working to ensure genuine independence of our judicial system from the executive and legislative branches, to ensure its professionalism, fairness and equal rights of access to justice for all citizens," Russian President Dmitry Medvedev emphasized in his report to the 5th Economic Forum in Krasnoyarsk in 2008.

As things stand today, the army of bureaucrats in Russia is two million people strong. Despite the introduction of modern information technologies, there is no tendency for the number of bureaucrats in Russia to decrease. Again, corruption remains to be a serious problem (see Chapter 15).

Yet another problem of modernday Russia is the shadow economy. According to experts, up to several tens of percents of financial transactions in Russia are made "in the shadow," i.e., are not reflected in accounting documents and hence concealed from the fiscal agencies. Money-laundering is widespread and is practiced in many forms and methods. Hundreds of billions of dollars are paid as bribes to officials and bureaucrats of various ranks annually. It is paradoxical that with average wages and pensions many times smaller than in the developed countries47, the prices for food, consumer goods and housing are here on a level with or even higher than in the world's leading countries. However, if we make allowance for the amounts of money paid in cash in "envelopes" without reporting payment to the fiscal agencies48 and some other realities of our "shadow economy," there are reasons to infer that the actual quality of life is better than official statistics indicate (for certain categories, "unofficial" income constitutes half or even two-thirds of the total). In fact, official statistics fail to give a true picture of life in Russia49. By and large, the shadow economy represents a sizable domain of Russia's life: it has its own established rules, practices and regulations that are observed (or violated) just as the country's formal laws are. It is well known what issues are to be solved. The question is how to solve them

If we address more specifically the issue of what needs to be done to boost Russia's economy, the main areas where efforts need to be put in are mostly well known. They include refurbishment and retrofitting of industry and agriculture, providing them with cutting-edge equipment50, fundamental improvement of communications, advanced training of personnel, introduction of modern work practices, improvement of medical care, increase of benefits payable to the needy and implementation of modern democratic principles, maintaining stable peaceful relations with the neighboring countries and other countries of the world. This is the first time that we have lived in a free country, something that we are not accustomed to; we have democratic elections, and we are not afraid to express our views. The downside of this is that freedom often comes together with violence, and so we witnessing a growth of crime51, embezzlement of the country's valuable assets, manifestations of ethnic hatred52, an enormously wide gap between the rich and the poor, degradation of research science institutions, etc. These negative phenomena seem to be among the factors preventing us from completing our protracted transitional period53. Among the measures to be taken, I would mention streamlining legislation; advanced development of science and technology; streamlining the government structures; fighting corruption; achieving a drastic reduction in the proportion of the shadow economy; protection of private property; reforming
In European Union, pension is at least 50% of the last job's income. Quite a few western countries boast pensions as high as 70% of the last job pay. 48 According to unofficial estimates, these amounts make up some 30% (probably, up to 50% in times of crises) of the people's overall income. 49 Writer Alexander Kabakov wrote about the life of modern-day Muscovites: "how is it possible for a young manager with a salary of $1000 a month to rent an apartment for $800, move around in a dignified car, be a regular visitor of fashionable clubs and make serious plans for a home mortgage? How can one square meter of floor space cost as much as several months' wages by the average citizen? Where do all these passenger cars come from so that there is one for very third person?" There is much doubt about the legality of the incomes that have been spent over the recent several years on building these hundreds of thousands of luxurious countryside cottages each costing $300,000-500,000, elite apartments costing roughly the same amount or even more. 50 Delays in replacement of outdated and rundown equipment have led to increasingly frequent technogenic catastrophes in the last few decades. In many industries equipment has been in operation for a long time after its expiration date. 51 However unpleasant it may be to acknowledge this, the crime rate is continuing to increase. According to criminal records, the crime rate in the Russian Federation increased from 1.8 million crimes a year in 1996 to 3.8 million crimes a year as of 2006. 52 We are witnessing the appearance of extremism and a Nazi-style ideology. 53 One of the so-called "fathers of perestroika," Alexander Yakovlev, said that "without freedom of speech, without political opposition, without people's massive involvement in economic development and without a civil society, we will not achieve anything but a further consolidation of the supremacy of the state over the people, i.e., we will be back on a dead-end track."
47

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

130

the armed forces, judicial system and penal system; combating increasing drug addiction and HIV proliferation; providing a higher degree of care to the disabled; resolving the problem of homeless children; more active development of the lands to the east of the Urals. What is most important is that each able-bodied citizen should be given the opportunity for best development of his or her abilities and potential, to find a sphere of activity that suits him or her best and is useful and valuable for the community instead of falling into depression or turning to alcohol, drugs, games of chance or religious sects. One should aspire for success and recognition, improved life dynamics and vivacity. Achieving success in one's chosen field of activity should be everyone's goal, particularly for the young. Motivation is important. It would be good if our people were to develop something like the "American dream," i.e., a national idea of fighting for success and prosperity. The American cult of the self-made man deserves all respect and emulation. To help everyone, to coach, to direct (sometimes, maybe, even to coerce) there is much needing attention from the state, charitable people and foreign sponsors. The revival of the country will go faster if fueled with the initiative and enthusiasm of the broad masses; it is important to stimulate the spirit of innovation and creative competition among specialists. The system of management needs improvement as well, and the principle of openness and other levers of civil society should be employed more effectively. It is well known that labor productivity and results strongly depend on the psychological state and disposition of the people and on their diligence. It is important to properly formulate the policy of the country's revival and to convince the people that it is both correct and realistic. A foreign periodical writes that "the Russians have more than once surprised the world by doing what seemed undoable and in a surprisingly short time. Sometimes their enthusiasm and their special understanding of duty bordered on what is called heroism." Of course, on the one hand, it is stupid to hope for a miracle, but there are many examples in history in which nations achieved great progress within a short period of time. Consider, for example, the breakthroughs of Germany and Japan made within a brief period of time in the last century and the impressive achievements of the so-called "Asian tigers." In just one or two decades these countries overcame backwardness and became among the world leaders. Having started economic reforms led by Deng Xiaoping back in 1979 (6 years before the onset of perestroika in Russia), China has since then been steadily increasing its GDP. This huge country is persistently implementing its plan formulated as "progress based on the development of science and education."
Regrettably, we have missed many opportunities in the past. Take, for example, the 20-year-long period beginning from the 1960s. The war was long since over, the country was basically restored, a nuclear shield was created to protect us from a sudden attack, dozens of billions of dollars were coming in revenues from oil exports (according to available data, Russia received about $180 billion worth of petrodollars during the 1970s-1980s), there were more than 1 million scientists at work, and the country was a world leader in space exploration and held high positions in a number of other fields. One of the best systems of education was created and there were no serious conflicts or internal frictions. It seems that there was a very real opportunity to implement economic reform, democratize the system and move forward. But the ultimate result was economic and political crisis, collapse of the ideology and more problems. The reasons behind this sad outcome lay not only in our flawed economic system and incorrect criteria employed in the selection of the government, but also in the wrongfully set supreme goal to win a victory over the imperialist world.

The following is an excerpt from Dmitry Medvedev's speech to the 5th Economic Forum in Krasnoyarsk in February 2008: "Our policy should be based on the principle which I consider to be No. 1 for a government which sees its goal as achieving high quality of life for its people. This principle can be formulated as "freedom is better than is its absence." I'm talking here of freedom in all its manifestations, including personal freedom, economic freedom, freedom of selfexpression. It has often been the case in our history that no sooner has our country begun to spread its wings than we have been irresponsibly catapulted into armed conflict or had revolution come tumbling down on our heads. But we have learned something from history, namely, that we cannot be indifferent to our future and that stable and consistent development is absolutely vital for us today. But stability does not mean relaxing and doing nothing while the petrodollars rain down. We have accumulated such potential for development today that it would be stupid and immoral not to make use
54 George Bush Jr. said on the issue (quoted from Mikhail Gorbachev's memoirs, 2005) that "I just can't understand how do you do like you do. After all, your science is the best in the world [it would be more correct to say "one of the best in the world" Evgeny Abramyan), your people are well educated, you have excellent engineers, not to mention your natural resources In fact, you own half the world's natural resources Your life has to be different. The issue of why you can't manage it should be given a thought."

During perestroika, too, we were too slow and not too clever in implementing structural reforms, economic and political modernization of the country. Again, the opportunities provided by the huge oil export revenues were not used to their best advantage. Again, it was "only" necessary to properly organize the process of reforms, to choose an optimal strategy, to select the right people and to give them right assignments54. It has to be admitted that neither Russia, nor the world's best economists and think-tanks, have a general theory for resolving such problems. Individual breakthroughs achieved at different times by different countries involved different scenarios, although they had much in common (see Chapter 8). We should use the experience of others, learn by the lessons of the past, promote talented and capable people, rise to our feet, transform the country and never lose again. There is no doubt that this is all doable.

Chapter 7

131

of it, not to seize this opportunity for economic growth, technological modernization, raising our peoples living standards and creating a society that is genuinely able to withstand outside upheavals. We have everything we need for this, and above all, we have our greatest treasure our people. A few words in conclusion: "We must finally gain the right and the strength to take charge of our own present and decide our policies in culture, in the economy and in state law. We answer before time and we cannot place all of the responsibility on our rightfully esteemed and respected forebears. We are free and we are therefore responsible." These words belong to Academician [Dmitry] Likhachev and I fully agree with them."

Crises in Russia The occurrence of economic crises in Russia depends on both Russia's own economic situation and that in other countries of the world. Primary causes of the crisis of 1998, for example, included the crises in certain Asian countries which, in turn, pushed down the prices for raw materials (which represent Russia's key exports) and the collapse of the GKO (state short-term bonds) pyramid which triggered the country's insolvency and default. Back then the ruble's value declined 75%, imports plummeted, but domestic industries gained competitiveness on both domestic and world markets. It took some seven years for the ruble to regain its pre-crisis value. Contributing largely to Russia's economic strengthening in that period of time was the major growth in the world oil prices. The crises which began in 2007 in the United States and ultimately affected almost all countries of the world might have more dramatic consequences. The crisis arrived in Russia in the fall of 2008 and manifested itself in industrial production decline by 50-70% compared to similar period of 2007, major increase in the rate of unemployment, shutdowns of companies and businesses, devaluation of the ruble, inflation55, and outbreak of crime. Capital flight amounted to approximately $130 billion in 2008. Production decline continues, and analysts say the crisis might continue until 2010 or 2011. Naturally, this arouses concerns that such worsening of the country's economic situation is fraught with radicalization of people's moods and social unrest. Russia's economy is part of the world economy and, however special Russia may be, its emergence out of the crisis will to a considerable extent depend on the world situation. As things stand today, Russia's situation is greatly alleviated by the stabilization fund56 which had been accumulated before the crisis broke out. In a longer run, we need to go away from the raw-material-export-based economy to a one based on deep processing of oil, gas, coal and timber, develop scientific research and high-tech industries. This will require fundamental restructuring and radical improvement of the management system. In the meantime, the governments of world leading countries are taking joint actions to combat the crisis (see Chapter 9 for more details on the anti-crisis meetings and resolutions).

Yegor Gaidar: "The crisis will lead to political consequences. After all, managing the country when crude is $140 per barrel and when it is $40 per barrel are two very different things57. The establishment of liberal institutions clears a path to economic growth. The idea that it is possible to stop economic reforms in the country will cost us a lot. I mean ensuring the right of private property, stimulating investments, transparent mechanisms of decision making on the top government level and legitimacy of court resolutions. It is a mistake to expect raw materials prices to be always high58." Grigory Yavlinsky: "In order to get out of the crisis we should, first and foremost, create strong demand on the domestic market. Since foreign markets are down and will remain such for some time to come, we need to create demand here, inside the country. We should launch a large-scale housing program under the motto: "Homes, Roads and Land." We should provide the people with land allotments and render them all possible support from the government to encourage them to build homes. If this works out, road building will be stimulated automatically. Assuming that our goal is to build,
55 Apparently, the crisis will help rid the country of many things it had better rid itself of long ago, such as inflated payrolls, overabundance of luxurious jobs in office administration, excessive salaries and bonuses of top managers, excessive trade markups and the addiction to imported foodstuffs and consumer goods and raw material exports. 56 The crisis is in a certain sense a singular point in the country's history. In this connection, it is interesting to have a look at Russia's development and results achieved in the last decade and in the Soviet Era. The following data (apparently trustworthy) were presented in the article by Doctor of Economics and Professor, Nikita Krichevsky (the article was published in Mosckovskiy Komsomolets, July 3, 2009). During 2000 through 2008, Russia's GDP grew by 6.5% per year on the average. During 1930 through 1938, Soviet GDP grew at the annual average rate of 14.4%; during 1950 through 1958 the figure was 10.0%; from 1960-1968 it was 7.4%. In 2008, the share of oil, petrochemicals, natural gas, metals and electricity in the total of Russia's exports reached 82.9% while back in 1970 the corresponding figure was 35.2% and in 1980 it was 55.7%. Rolled steel production was 63.7 million tons in 1990 and 59.6 million tons in 2007. Electrical power production equaled 1,082 billion kW-h in 1990 and 1,037 billion kW-h in 2008. The share of machine tools, equipment and motor vehicles in Russia's exports was between 16% and 22% in 1960-1980 and only 4.9% in 2008. From 2000 through 2008, Russia's population declined by 4.4 million people. During year 2008 alone, Russia's population dropped by 1.7 million. For comparison, in the mid 1980s, there was a stable population growth of 2.4-2.5 million per year. Average life expectancy has decreased too. Russia is No. 1 in the world in the number of abortions and liquor consumption. The article also contains saddening figures on the situation in research science and other fields. 57 Even harsher statements can be found in the press: "Russia should break free from its oil export addiction." 58 "It will take the world economy, first of all the U.S. economy, several years to overcome this crisis. This means that Russia cannot expect any help from the outside. There will be no feverish demand for energy resources and there will be no cheap money too. The river of petrodollars has turned into a rivulet and the economy is getting increasingly short of money," Russian Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin said in April 2009.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

132

say, 130 square meters of floor space per family (be it an apartment of an individual house), the whole program will cost 14 trillion rubles assuming that we have 12 million families or 35-40 million people in need of such housing improvement. One ruble invested in housing construction brings 7-13 rubles into the related industries. Investments in housing construction help create jobs in building materials production, steel industry, mining and light industry. In order to get out of the crisis we should improve our household management on the nationwide scale. And we should develop our eastern territories or we will lose all what we have beyond the Urals." The following are some excerpts from The Concept of Long-Term Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the Period Until 2020. "Negative effect of existing structural limitations is aggravated by the unresolved social and institutional problems, the following being the most pressing ones among them: High degree of social inequality and regional differentiation; High risks associated with business entrepreneurship, including due to corruption, excessive administrative barriers and insufficient protection of property rights; Poor self-organization and self-regulation of businesses and society and poor efficiency of government management; Weak competition hence no stimuli for efficiency improvement; Insufficient development of the national innovation system, coordination of education, research and business. By 2015-2020, Russia is to make it among the world's top five countries in terms of GDP (purchasing power parity adjusted), and by 2020, people's income and quality of life in Russia shall match those characteristic of developed economies. Seventy percent of the population will have annual income equal or higher than $30,000, and the country will reach high standards in personal security, environmental safety, accessibility of education, culture and medical services and housing accommodation. Constitutional rights will be irrevocably guaranteed, including by a developed system of democratic institutions, and effective mechanisms of law enforcement will be implemented. Negative demographic tendencies will be overcome and population number will be stabilized, differentiation in quality of life over the territory of the Russian Federation will be smoothed over, environmental situation will be improved and social polarization will be reduced. The share of middle class will increase to over 50% of the population, and a considerable proportion of it will be formed of people who are directly involved in the economic and technology research and development and humanitarian studies. Government policy will be oriented toward more freedom of entrepreneurship, ensure efficiency of state administration and support of social justice. A knowledge-based, high-tech competitive economy will be created. By 2020, Russia may secure 5-10% of high-tech goods and intellectual services markets in 5-7 or more segments, and prerequisites will be created for massive appearance of new innovative technologies in all sectors of economy, first of all in the knowledgeconsuming ones. Domestic investments in research and development should increase to 2.5-3% of GDP by 2020. Excessive government patronage of the economy will be lifted. National security, defense potential, economic and food security, territorial security and security of the population from natural and technogenic disasters will be maintained on high levels. Taking advantaged of the opportunities provided by globalization, Russia will attract capital, technologies and talents. State-sponsored entrepreneurship will be focused on defense and national security. Inflation will be gradually curbed. Russia will become one of the world's financial centers59. "

59

Let's wait and see to what extent all these forecasts are realistic. Unfortunately, long-term plans are destined to never come true all too often. Moreover, the success of such plans is, among other factors, dependent on the world situation, global trends, crises, etc.

Chapter 8

133

Chapter 8

Changes in the Mindsets of Nations; Economic Miracles In recent history, there have been many examples of a rapid radical transformation of countries in terms of their political structure, economy, and national consciousness. These have been the transformations in Russia after 1917 and from the middle of the 1980s, in Germany in the 1930s and after the Second World War, in Japan in the 1950s, and in some Asian countries in the last few decades. A rapid advance is taking place in China, and a modernization drive is underway in India. Attempts are being made to establish a democratic order and build a new economy in Afghanistan and Iraq. If successful, this experience could later spread into other countries of the Islamic East. The gains of many countries stand in marked contrast to the decline of others, which fail to tread the road of progress and meet the needs of the population. A crucial task of the world community is to help the countries where the population lives in desperate conditions and where the situation is favorable, therefore, for the emergence of extreme movements. There is a need to help them advance to a new, higher standard of living.
n former times, the mindset and behavioral patterns of people tended to be more stable and less susceptible to changes that today; normally, it took the several generations for any noticeable changes in consciousness to occur. For example, the Bulgarian people preserved their identity after many centuries of living under the rule of the Ottoman Empire, and the Jewish nation has survived two thousand years of being scattered around the world. Calamities and cataclysms, such as revolutions, lost wars, living under the rule of other nations, popular progressive reforms, or dictatorial or totalitarian regimes often catalyze rapid changes in people's consciousness in the latter case, however, the changes are often not for the better. It is sometimes the case that the views and values of the younger generation differ from those of their parents the so-called problem of fathers and sons. Changes in the people's mindset also can be prompted by changes in living conditions when society reaches a higher level of development. There is a mutual dependence between socioeconomic conditions and the people's outlook and way of life. Many countries underwent radical changes during the 20th century. In Russia, sweeping reforms took place first after the October 1917 Revolution and then again in the late 1980s and 1990s. In Germany, major reforms were implemented in the 1930s, after World War II, and finally after the unification of the two Germanys in 1989. Japan experienced cataclysms after the defeat in World War II. A number of Asian countries came through major upheavals in the 1960s-80s. Of course, the term "national mentality" cannot be considered a very clear concept. After all, every nation includes people with different views, interests, and personal inclinations but there are certain traits that distinguish one nation from others. It has to be noted that certain traits of national character may be preserved even in the face of significant changes in ways of life or social and political systems. Transformation of the Mindset of the Russians in the 20th Century The main goals of the October 1917 Revolution included the destruction of the preceding ideology, establishing a new way of life, building a new economic system and system of government, and achieving fundamental changes in people's views, values, and attitudes, this leading to the creation of a new type of personality. The Bolsheviks decisively demolished the old values, such as monarchy, religion, private property, social classes, political institutions, and the economic system. They were particularly harsh in cracking down on religion and belief in the tsar in order to open people's minds for a new, progressive, ideology. A revolutionary mindset was implanted using both propaganda and violent, inhuman methods. Their slogan was that the end justifies the means. An attempt was made to establish a new, communist, way of life and raise a new generation of people of the future. According to the communist propaganda, the new society was to be based on the principles that "all people are friends, comrades and brothers" and "from each according to his ability, to each according to his work," this latter slogan later being to be to "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs." There was a global task as well to show mankind a true path to tread. Their paradigm was, in effect, a continuation of ideas originally pronounced by Tommaso Campanella; the Utopian socialists Henri de Saint-Simon, Charles Fourier, and Robert Owen; and the theories of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels as adapted to the new epoch and specific conditions of Russia the teaching of Vladimir Lenin. The Bolsheviks pursued the tremendous goal of a targeted change of mentality, the economy, and other features that determine the life of society and functioning of government.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

134

Changes did take place, but the final goal of building a society of fairness and prosperity was never achieved. What had actually happened? The country lost many of its best-educated people, including the nobility, intelligentsia, and bourgeoisie. Noncommunist scholars, scientists, and cultural figures were thrown out of Russia onboard the notorious Philosophers' Ship in 1922 and further loss beyond that. Many of them later became famous. The victims of Bolshevik rule, migrs, and repressed are counted in the millions. There was a period in the Soviet era when it was required to specify one's family background in the identity questionnaire form. Having people of property among one's relatives when ruin one's reputation, limiting opportunities and possibly even leading to arrest and imprisonment. The new ideology tolerated no diversity of opinions, thoughts, or ideas. A new mentality was being forged, the Soviet mentality1. There were some people, especially during the first several years after the Revolution, who displayed an almost fanatical belief in the "bright future" and rightfulness of the Communist Party's course. Despite the long-standing humanistic traditions of Orthodox Christianity, many in Russia adopted the new order, which considered mass slaughter to be permissible as a means for achieving its end. There was a short moment when the Soviet leaders (Nikolai Bukharin and his cohorts) called upon the people to "get rich," but the initiative was quite short-lived. With time, Soviet people developed such traits as remarkable adaptability to living in the conditions of shortage of goods and threat of repression. During the Great Patriotic War, the predominant sentiments among the Soviet people were patriotism and readiness for self-sacrifice for the sake of victory. The understanding that efforts to build communism and outperform the capitalist world economically were futile took shape in the postwar period, especially after Stalin's death. The orthodox communist (or socialist) ideology lost momentum, while the country's citizens en masse developed a lifestyle of adaptability which was disrespectfully dubbed "sovok."2 Despite all the attempts by the government to limit information flows from the West, news about the life beyond the Iron Curtain and different political systems and views became increasingly accessible in the Soviet Union. The people (at least many of them) were becoming prepared for a change. In combination with a number of other factors, these developments led to a bloodless revolution in the late 1980s that ended the Cold War. It is said that this was the first time in a thousand years that democratic reforms took place in Russia (democratic reforms in other countries having taken place no earlier than a few centuries ago). Perestroika began with calls for reducing the government's involvement in social life, removing the cancer of communism, more democracy, social justice, etc. This was the collapse of the communist symbols and ideology, demolition of the former system of control over public consciousness. During the initial, romantic, phase of perestroika, most people were aflame with enthusiasm and hopes for a new and better life after a complete transition to a liberal system. In addition to freedom and independence, the winds of change brought responsibilities and risks with which people were unacquainted, such as the risk of losing everything in one short moment, especially if one succumbs to the temptation to risk it all on a long shot. The country was trying to accomplish two tasks at a time to transform public consciousness and make a transition to a free-market economy. Making these tasks yet more challenging was the disintegration of the country, which led to shifting of borders and breaking of established economic ties, the defense system, and relations between the national republics and loss of their positions in the world. The reforms developed in a spontaneous fashion, and still continue. Part of the population underwent a fundamental change in mindset: the sudden injection of freedom revived aspirations that had been thoroughly eradicated over the lifetimes of two or even three generations of the Soviet era. (However, it should be noted that private entrepreneurship did exist in the Soviet Union, though on a very limited scale, in the form of shadow, illegal activities). Perestroika opened the way for the people's urge for entrepreneurship and enrichment, and it turned out that these aspirations had not been not killed, but had survived in a latent form for many years of Soviet rule. People went into trade, opened their own businesses, banks, etc., which had been illegal in the Soviet Union. According to Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Tatyana Zaslavskaya, "35-40% of the population showed a noticeable increase in the potential to work. These include large and medium-size businessmen, most government officials, private company managers, creative types, law enforcement officers, etc. They are self-confident and have adapted to the new environment." (However, many of them are far from good examples of morality and ethics). Various parties and movements have appeared, with widely differing marches and rallies being seen on the streets, and fistfights in the State Duma are a surprise no longer. The wide spectrum of opinions is one of the signs pointing to the development of a new public consciousness different from that of the Soviet era, when we saw millions of marchers chanting the same slogans in unison. Economic degradation and state collapse led to a certain degradation of culture. Religion also strengthened its position with the collapse of the Soviet government. Many churches have been restored; however, Russian Ortho"The moment they launched the struggle for breeding a new personality, the Soviets strayed from the path of people and entered that of the beasts. In a brief period of time, they achieved impressive results: The new types, such as Soviet teacher, Soviet doctor, and Soviet ideologue, took shape and became very recognizable." (Victor Astafiev, The Cursed and the Slain, 1994). 2 The definition of a Soviet citizen as a "cog in a machine" appeared in the official press.
1

Chapter 8

135

dox Christianity has not fully regained its positions in the public consciousness to the extent it had in preRevolutionary Russia. There may be a problem with cultivating patriotism in the younger generation today, although patriotism and dutifulness in serving the Motherland have been characteristic features of Russians since times immemorial. Furthermore, Russia's present-day public consciousness has a negative impact on the demographic situation. People prefer not to have children in such an unfriendly economic environment with no certainty about the future. Other negative developments include growth of crime, including corruption among government high ranking officials; deterioration of morale in the army; and massive draft dodging. It will take time for the Russian people to unite behind a better-conceived national idea and develop a new, national mindset and consciousness (see also Chapter 7). Germany In the 1930s, within the brief period of several years, the National Socialist German Workers' Party (NSDAP) led by Adolf Hitler succeeded not only in changing the country's economy and creating a mighty war machine, but also in uniting the people behind the ideas of Deutschland ueber Alles, Lebensraum, the Thousand Year Reich and the supremacy of the "Aryan race." This nation, humiliated as it was by defeat in World War I and the Treaty of Versailles3, and overburdened with inflation and the Depression of the 1920s, turned out to be susceptible to radical changes in its mindset. Thus, the Germans believed Hitler, who promised them stability and prosperity. Making use of populist slogans, the Nazis enlisted support primarily from those whom the economic catastrophe had deprived of their businesses, i.e. small time storekeepers and farmers.

This nation of high culture, which led the world in many fields of science4, almost unanimously accepted the Nazi ideology, except for those who chose to emigrate or joined the few who went underground. Crowds enthusiastically watched books being burned in squares, including such books "alien to the Aryan spirit" as those by Heinrich Heine, Leo Tolstoy, Emile Zola, Thomas Mann, Erich Maria Remarque, Herbert George Wells, and Jack London5. It is well known how ordinary German citizens celebrated the Nazi military victories; how they supported the New Order, Third Reich6, and Push to the East; how they participated in pro-Nazi rallies; and how they took for granted the stolen goods brought by special trains to Germany from the occupied countries. The new ideas were deftly implanted into the people's minds by the Ministry of Education and Propaganda, headed by Joseph Goebbels, and a widespread network of Nazi organizations. In this period the Germans demonstrated an overall emotional rise and increase in the birth rate. After the defeat in World War II, Germany again found itself in crisis: many cities were ruined, much of the ablebodied male population had been killed, banks were closed, and accounts of Germans in foreign banks were cancelled. Germany was to pay huge reparations, but, no less significantly, the national ideology had collapsed and its champions were executed. Complicating things were that about 10 million (or more) Germans, mostly women, children, and old people, had moved to the country as they were deported from West and East Prussia, Pomerania, Silesia, and the Sudeten region. (This deportation and relocation was accompanied by acts of violence and injustice, with even incidents of Germans committing suicide. Most of their property was confiscated. The issue of restitution or reimbursement for the confiscated property is still sometimes raised). More than 10% of the population, or about 8 million citizens, of Nazi Germany were NSDAP members, and the hunt for those guilty in war crimes continued in
Loss of territory, reparations and national humiliation. Here it is appropriate to recall that as of early 1933 there were 19 Nobel Prize winners in Germany, more than in any other country of the world. Of those scientists who emigrated from Germany, eight won Nobel Prizes later. 5 A century before the event occurred, Heinrich Heine said that "where one begins by burning books, one will end up burning people." 6 According to the chronology introduced by German political scientists, the first Reich was the Holy Roman Empire founded in the 10th century and the second Reich was the German Empire proclaimed in 1871 after victory in the Franco-Prussian war.
3 4

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

136

Germany for several years after the end of the war. Under the Law on Denazification, former NSDAP members were divided into categories by degree of complicity in the crimes of the Nazi regime, from the main culprits to allies of the moment. As a result, tens of thousands of former Nazis were prohibited from occupying positions of responsibility and approximately 10 thousand people were given prison terms. Germany itself was occupied and cut apart. It seemed that the country had neither the strength nor the means for a quick restoration. The policy pursued by Germany in that time is sometimes referred to as the 4 Ds, namely demilitarization, denazification, democratization, and deindustrialization (much German industrial equipment was decommissioned). The victors saw their task as enforcing a new, democratic regime and a demilitarized economic system. In addition to rendering Germany assistance in her restoration, the Western occupying powers were motivated in getting the country into their sphere of influence as an ally in the confrontation with the Soviet Union, which had already begun by that time. The United States also pursued a goal of restoring the European market as a potential consumer of their industrial products. At the time the Americans did not think that Europe might become a competitor one day (they could not imagine Japan as a potential competitor either; see below). Again a change occurred in the mindset and lifestyle of the German people, this time under the guidance of the victorious countries and under the influence of the shock of defeat7. Almost a nationwide repentance took place. There may be no other such instance of this in the history of mankind. Today, the Germans are willing to render assistance to those who suffered at their hands during World War II8. They make contributions to international charity foundations and accept and house political, economic, and ethnic refugees. Pacifism and an aversion to participating in military actions of any kind have become German national traits9. The idea of financing the restoration of Germany and other European countries was first proposed in June 1947 by then-US Secretary of State George Catlett Marshall. However, the most important factors for the success of the German reforms were the industriousness and diligence of the German middle class and their desire for a comfortable living, as well as foreign financial assistance, the talented economic management of Ludwig Erhard (1945-1966) and the political leadership of Konrad Adenauer (Chancellor of West Germany from 1949 until 1963). Financial assistance rendered by the United States included grants and concessional loans that were invested in housing construction and development of the major industries, such as energy and steel. Germany succeeded in overcoming the legacy of Nazi rule and effectively exited from an overcentralized and overregulated system to private entrepreneurship, free competition, and democracy. Institutions of civil society institutions were restored, alongside with a plurality of political parties. At first, the government performed the functions of distributing goods and services among the people combined with total price regulation. Food ration cards were introduced immediately after the end of the war: the daily ration in the Western occupied zone was 2 thousand calories per person. During the severe winter of 19461947, this was cut to 800 calories. Incidents of people dying of hunger occurred. From the Marshall Plan's enactment in April 1948 and until mid-1952, West Germany and other countries of Western Europe received food, medicines, raw materials, fuel, machines, and equipment worth a total of $13 billion (equivalent of $90-100 billion of today's US dollars). The share of Germany in this was $1.6 billion (by 1978, Germany had repaid $1.1 billion, and the outstanding debt was written off). The terms and conditions of the Marshall Plan were accepted by Great Britain, France, Italy, Sweden, Austria and several other countries in Europe. Assistance was offered to the eastern countries as well, but the Soviet Union not only rejected American aid for itself, it forbade to deliver it to the countries of Eastern Europe. The so-called "socially oriented economy," proposed by then-German Economic Minister Ludwig Erhard, was based on the following principles: Preemptive right of the state in determining rules and practices for business entities (not rigid regulation);
In 1950, five years after the end of the war, 45 percent of Germans said they preferred the Kaiser (Wilhelm II) and 42% said they preferred the Third Reich in a poll in which they were what country they would like to live in. In a similar poll conducted in 1972, almost 80% of the respondents said they would prefer a democracy. 8 "Today we ask for forgiveness for what Germans inflicted in Germany's name on the Russian people and other peoples," then-German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said in May 2005. Repentance for Nazi crimes became one of the cornerstones of the policy pursued by the German Social Democrats, from Willy Brandt to Schroeder. 9 It must be noted that apologizing for past crimes is becoming an increasingly frequent event. For instance, Pope John Paul II made an apology for the Inquisition and for the plunder of Constantinople in 1204. In 1998, the Vatican issued a document containing a comprehensive review of the relations between the Roman Catholic Church and the Jews, particularly the deplorable events of World War II. The document contains the words of repentance "for the intolerance and violence on the part of the Medieval Inquisition, for all acts of forceful proselytism and fanaticism committed in the Church's name, for the sins committed by the Catholics over the time of many centuries against the Orthodox Christians." Japan made an apology to the countries on which it inflicted damage in past wars. Then-President of France Jacques Chirac apologized for the proNazi policy of the Vichy regime. Libya is paying compensation for terrorist acts committed by its citizens. In the early 2008, Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd apologized in parliament to all Aborigines "for the activities of the European colonizers." Scotland is considering the possibility of rehabilitating the four thousand "witches" who were burned in the Middle Ages. And here is appropriate to recall how Nikita Khrushchev apologized in his memoirs to the "bulldozer" artists and poet Andrey Voznesenskiy. Maybe these are signs of mankind's becoming different, developing in a direction toward humanism, patience, and tolerance, which are indispensable for survival. Unfortunately, Russia is lagging behind in this field as well: it is time to make an apology for the sins of the last century. Today's generation cannot be held responsible for Stalin-era crimes, but such crimes must at least be officially acknowledged.
7

Chapter 8

137

Ensuring free competition and openness of markets, maximum encouragement for private entrepreneurship, antimonopoly policy, support of small- and midsize businesses; Maintaining harmony of all elements of the economic system: entrepreneurship, monetary policy, banking, etc.; Maintaining stability of cash circulation, economic policy, and investing conditions.. Public opinion in Germany was initially opposed to the free-market economy, and Erhard had to implement his plan without grassroots support. He would say that a politician should ignore public opinion once he embarks on a program of fundamental free-market-oriented reforms. People who live in stark poverty, with hardships and distress still fresh in their memory, are unable to understand, much less to analyze, different economic models. Therefore, they are often opposed to free-market entrepreneurial capitalism, failing to acknowledge that it is their only salvation and the best way out. Erhard succeeded in implementing monetary reform, with the main emphasis placed on production of consumer goods, monetary stability, free prices, and elimination of the government-regulated distribution system. Significance was attached to so-called "capital democratization," i.e., decartelization, providing employees with the opportunity to take part in enterprise management and assertion of minority shareholders' rights. Also, a sweeping conversion of military industries was accomplished. The reforms brought abundance to the consumer market. Stores were filled with goods that before the reform were distributed by ration cards only. In the brief period of four years, by 1950, Germany regained its prewar industrial output (!). The French economists Jacques Rueff and Andre Piettre write that "however surprising the amplitude of this rise was, its abruptness was even more surprising. Battered at the battlefields, smashed and dissected into occupation zones half a century ago, Germany today is a land of plenty and a country proud of its law and order." Foreign teachers were hired to work in many schools in Germany at that time. Specialists purposefully worked on changing public attitudes. Targeted programs were developed for different brackets of the population, for children, students, and the elderly. The Marshall Plan included special training courses for managers, workers, and farmers from Europe; this also contributed to the formation of a new mindset. The Germans studied democracy with their inherent meticulousness, and they proved to be excellent students. American administrators flooded Germany, and the presence of hundreds of thousands of foreigners in the country could not but influence its development. A significant role was played by democratically oriented or otherwise antifascist members of the intelligentsia, such as Heinrich Boll10, Bertolt Brecht (in East Germany), Anna Seghers, Heinrich Mann, and others, many of whom repatriated. The people who helped create a new Germany were called "culture officers." The dominating governing idea was "revival through repentance."11. It did not take long for a bracket of medium proprietors to appear alongside numerous small enterprises and stores. Democracy firmly established itself in Germany, unlike after World War I, when it gave way to a dictatorial regime in the 1930s. An opinion exists that, if Germany had been transformed with foreign assistance after World War I, there would have been no fascism and no World War II. The European countries that received Marshall aid, including Great Britain, France, Italy, Holland, and others, recorded an overall GDP increase of 32.5%, from $119 billion in 1947 to $159 billion in 1951. Industrial output rose 40% from the prewar level, and agricultural production increased 11%. By 1953, Europe's overall volume of trade increased 40%. As of 1951, Europe's exports exceeded imports, the unemployment rate had dropped dramatically, and prices continued to fall. In 1952, the Marshall Plan was declared accomplished. In 1953, George Marshall, the initiator and organizer of this program, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Over the period from 1952 to 1960, Europe's GDP increased by an average of 7.7% annually, while the unemployment rate decreased from 8.5 to 1.3%. West Germany became one of the world's best well-off countries. As journalists wrote at that time, an economic miracle was achieved. When West Germany was recognized as a fully sovereign state in 1955, the occupation officially ended, and almost immediately the country joined NATO. In 1956, West Germany declared the Communist Party unconstitutional and officially banned it, which determined the country's political orientation. In his 1962 summing-up speech, Adenauer announced the country's complete restoration, with 6.5 million new apartments having been built and a number of other achievements in the political and economic spheres. After Nazi rule, defeat in the war, and years of occupation, the country regained sovereignty and won a leading position in Europe12. Germany was permitted to establish its own
10 In his novel A Letter to My Sons, Heinrich Boll wrote, "you will be able to recognize the decent Germans if they consider May 8 as a day of liberation rather than of defeat." 11 Gunter Grass wrote that "we, Germans, permanently feel responsibility for the disgrace we inherited. Several generations lived with the feeling of pain we had caused to others and suffered ourselves." 12 One year before that, in 1961, the East German government erected the Berlin Wall in effort to stop the flow of escapees which then numbered up to 1,500 per day. The Berlin Wall was destroyed on November 9, 1989, the day sometimes referred to as the Cold War end day. Incidentally, it was not very long before that day when East German leader Erich Honecker maintained that the wall would be standing "for one hundred years more." This statement, however, was not as ambitious as Hitler's "Thousand Year Reich." Well, the tougher the regime, the deeper its ambitions run into the future.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

138

At a later stage, a certain role in West Germany's economic development was played by immigrant workers. In the early 1960s, West Germany made agreements on importation of labor with Italy, Spain, Greece, Turkey, Morocco, Portugal, Tunisia, and Yugoslavia. Most of those who arrived to work in West Germany were poorly educated and unskilled. They aimed to stay for a certain period, but most settled permanently. World history has had many examples in which huge armies of guest workers played an important role in the development of those countries that now belong to the world's leading economies. Like any other capitalist country, Germany has more than once encountered problems, such as depression and unemployment; in 1966, Ludwig Erhard was forced to resign from the post of chancellor. It is important to note, that each German citizen enjoys a subsistence minimum guaranteed by the state. It is proclaimed that everyone shall be provided with "home and bread" and that nobody will be left without a place to live, medical care, food, clothes, furniture, a washing machine, and a television.

army of approximately 400,000, and it was integrated into the common defense system of Western Europe. Remaining restrictions included nuclear weapons and certain other kinds of heavy military hardware. German military took important posts in the NATO leadership. The only question remaining unresolved was that of unification of the two Germanys. Within the lifespan of one generation, the Germans made it back into the world economic elite. "Having lost the war, the Germans won the peace." Cutting-edge technology, high quality, and low production costs made German goods one of the most competitive in the world. As regards the United States, in addition to having rendered assistance for Europe's postwar restoration, they strengthened ties with it and consolidated their positions on the European markets. Moreover, the policy pursued by the United States prevented the Soviet Union from expanding its influence into Western Europe.

Postsocialist reforms in East Germany, of both its economic system and the people's mentality, have cost more effort, time, and money than the post-war restoration of the country's western part, though it might seem that the former should have been easier, at least because it was financed and performed by people belonging to the same nation and the same country. The project performed under rigid oversight by occupying authorities was more effective than the national one.
In the opinion poll conducted in 2007, approximately 25% of West Germans and one-eighth of East Germans said they would not be against restoration of the Berlin Wall. 14 Similarly to the restrictions imposed on the former Nazi party collaborators, those who were on the staff or payroll of the Staatssicherheit (Stasi) were subjected to security vetting and curtailment of rights after the unification of the two Germanies. The Stasi had 100,000 official employees and another 150,000 so-called "secret assistants," all of whom have been banned from holding positions of responsibility in the government and governmental structures. Similar measures aimed at keeping former Communist functionaries away from government, law enforcement, and other important positions were taken in other countries that used to belong to the Soviet bloc. The decommunistization that was carried out in the Czech Republic in 1991 involved security clearance investigations of 140 thousand people, including former Communist Party functionaries, state security officers, and secret assistance. The investigation returned either a "positive" or a "negative" result, and those for whom the result was "negative" were banned from occupying positions in the governmental structures. In 1997, Poland adopted the law "On Political Dependability." Under this law, those who had collaborated with the Communist regime's secret services and now wished to work in the new government had to make a public confession and apology. Those who did so were forgiven all their past wrongdoings, but those who attempted to conceal their past were fired and information about them published in the media. In Hungary, an ad hoc commission was established in 1994; the commission was given access to secret files of the Soviet-era secret services. In the event of finding that anyone now in the government had once collaborated with the former secret services, the person was given a choice: either voluntary resignation or publication of his or her file. Romania established a special institute for investigating crimes committed by the Communist regime, and Lithuania declared the Soviet KGB a criminal organization and imposed restrictions on its former collaborators. Similar processes took place in other countries of Eastern Europe. In December 1992, Russian Supreme Soviet Deputy Galina Starovoitova (representing the Democratic Russia movement), proposed a draft law "On an Employment Ban for Totalitarian Regime Champions." The draft law was never passed. In January 2006, the Council of Europe's Parliamentary Assembly passed a resolution on the "Need for International Condemnation of the Crimes of Totalitarian Communist Regimes," which orders the Council of Europe to launch a public awareness campaign on the crimes committed by totalitarian Communist regimes at the European level and take other actions as appropriate.
13

More radical changes took place in Germany after its unification in 1989. The problem was that the two Germanys were fundamentally different in economic systems and ways of life. After the long period of totalitarian, socialist rule, East Germany had fallen far behind its Western sister in terms of labor productivity and quality of life labor efficiency in East Germany was only one-third that of West Germany. Modernization of East Germany required much effort and cost. Over a decade, by 2000, 15 thousand enterprises had been privatized in East Germany and another 3500 closed. Reforms in East Germany included replacement of process equipment, modernization of utilities, personnel training, skill conversion, and improvement of labor organization and management. In a word, everything was done to raise the country to a new, higher level of development. Hundreds of billions of dollars were invested in the former East Germany. Moreover, there was a noticeable difference between the East and West Germans in terms of mindset and attitudes. Despite all effort expended, there was much dissatisfaction on both sides: the West Germans bemoaned the costs of reforming East Germany, while their Eastern compatriots were not always willing to adopt the new ways of life13. Many East Germans tended to mythologize their socialist past and their mentality is often more conservative and temperate than that of their western compatriots. The eastern regions still lag behind the west in labor productivity and quality of life, and the rate of unemployment is higher. It will take years and more investment to overcome these disproportions14.

Chapter 8

139

Japan Over most of its history, Japan developed as an isolated country with little contact with continental Asia and the rest of the world. However, beginning from the second half of the 19th century, as it embarked on an expansionist policy, Japan invaded the continent and waged several wars. In the 20th century, Japan entered World War II and suffered nuclear bombardment, defeat, and occupation by the Americans. As in West Germany, the United States launched radical democratic reforms in Japan and attempted to make it adopt a Western economic model. Military defeat and the collapse of their ambitious aggressive plans caused an upheaval in public consciousness that made the Japanese susceptible to radical reforms. The Japanese offered no resistance; they accepted radical democratic reforms, although they were imposed on them by an army of occupation.

Japan also enacted antimonopoly and labor laws and introduced a system of lifelong employment and insurance against loss of employment and health. Trade unions embraced up to 60% of the labor force in Japan, more than in the Western countries in that time. The combination of the Japanese traditional conservatism, discipline, and loyalty contributed to the development of highly effective and innovative industry. The Confucian culture of diligence in labor and discipline also played an important role in the Japanese postwar revival. This culture better blends with monotonous conveyor-belt operation than Western individualism does. The creation of a family-style corporate culture promoted increased labor enthusiasm, a creative approach to work, and an aspiration for improvement of skills and mastering new technologies and methods. The practices of the socalled quality teams and campaigns for permanent improvement and getting every employee involved in resolving production-related problems all led to creativity and a spirit of innovation15. The Japanese possess a unique talent of picking up and putting to use the inventions of others. Being short of own raw material resources, Japan has shown an excellent example of developing an innovation-based economy. The appearing stratum of proprietors contributed to stabilization in the country and society: by the late 1960s, small- and midsize enterprises accounted for almost 50% of GDP and provided two-thirds of jobs. By 1949-1950, prices in Japan were brought into line with world ones and ration cards were abolished. As the country is not rich in natural resources, the main emphasis was placed on developing processing industries. The Japanese yen was tied to the U.S. dollar, and by 1955, Japan joined the International Monetary Fund and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade16. Military spending was limited to 1% of GDP. Temporary restraints were also imposed on spending on personal needs, and incentives were offered for capital investments within the country. Japan imported al15 Later, when the Japanese built factories in the United States, they tried to instill their culture of work into the Americans, to no avail. This seems to have been because of fundamental differences between the characters of the two nations. Specifically, Americans primarily value individualism and personal independence, which does not blend well with the traditions of the Japanese. Looking at the history of the United States and Japan, it is easy to see that different styles and approaches led both countries to success, which leads one to believe it is not a certain style or approach to work that is important, but the will of each and every citizen, diligence, dedication, and maximal use of talent and resources (and, of course, good management). 16 IMF and GATT.

Excerpts from media reports from the time read as follows: "Adding to the shock of the unprecedented in the country's history crushing military defeat and foreign occupation was the shock of the unlimited political freedoms and the experience of cooperation with yesterday's enemy, who turned out to be not as ruthless and savage as portrayed by the war propaganda. "All political parties, trade unions and popular associations were permitted, except for nationalistic ones, which were dissolved and their leaders and activists arrested. "Of the country's former leaders, some chose surrender, trial, and prison, while others chose suicide. "There was much revelation and repentance; recent history was rewritten on the spot "The reforms involved mostly demilitarization and democratization. The Japanese army was fully demobilized, its former officers were subjected to lustration and some were prosecuted, and the system of education underwent sweeping demilitarization. "By introducing freedom of speech, the press, assembly, etc., the country demonstrated its adherence to the basic values of the liberal world. "Also, Japan implemented agrarian reform, which removed, or at least substantially alleviated, the existing imbalances in land ownership and land use, contributing to an overall increase in agriculture and the appearance of numerous small farms and small farmers, who were to become one of the basic social layers in the new Japan. "The government bought land estates from the major landowners and sold them out at affordable prices to those wishing to work them. As a result of this program, by 1955, 70% of the country's arable lands had become the property of those who toiled on them. "Eventually, a new constitution, written by Americans, and fundamentally different from both the old Japanese constitution and the American constitution, was developed and adopted."

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

140

most no consumer goods. The Japanese economy strongly benefited from huge exports to the United States and other countries and unexpected American orders during the Korean War of 1950-1953. In 1960, the Japanese government adopted a "GDP Redoubling Plan" for the next decade. The actual rate of GDP growth hit 11% per year, exceeding even these ambitious plans, and this was what they called the Japanese economic miracle. As things stand today, Japan is among the world leaders in electronics, automobile manufacturing, the steel industry, and a number of other industries. Japanese goods are successfully competing on the US market, to the disappointment of domestic producers, and are winning increasing popularity throughout the world. By 1970, Japan had left behind Italy, Great Britain, France, and Germany, ranking second in the capitalist world, after only the United States, in terms of GDP. Average per capita income in Japan at that time was one of the highest in the world over $30,000 per year. Japan's gold and hard currency reserves are approaching one trillion U.S. dollars, much higher than those of any other country. Japanese tourists, armed with modern video and photo equipment, flooded the world's places of interests. Life expectancy, one of the most important indicators characterizing quality of life, is about 80 years in Japan. In 1970, Japan started building a city of science, Tsukuba, essentially along the lines of Akademgorodok (a city of science in the Russian Federation, near Novosibirsk), which had appeared 10 years earlier, in the early 1960s (the resolution on building it was enacted by the Soviet Government in 1957). The Land of the Rising Sun developed into one of the symbols of technological progress. Its citizens forgot about war and now stand firmly on democratic positions. Like other industrially developed countries, Japanese was among the first to be hit by the global economic crisis. Having few natural resources and living off of its exports of sophisticated items, Japan has found itself in a particularly difficult situation. As usually happens, relations between two developed countries are always a based on cooperation and competition. Germany and Japan both made it into the club of the eight countries that determine global policy. For a long time, the Japanese yen, together with the US dollar and previously the German mark, has held a firm position among the world's major currencies (with the Euro now today and with the Chinese yuan gaining momentum). It was unity and mutual understanding between Western Europe, the United States, and Japan in their opposition to the Soviet bloc that helped the former win the Cold War. Other Countries Breakthroughs in economic development, mentality, and way of life occurred in a number of other Asian countries in the late 1960s and early 1970s; as a result, these countries managed to overcome their backwardness and join the prosperous nations. The so-called Asian Tigers Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea have successfully implemented radical reforms and became truly postindustrial countries with a high level of technological development and leading positions in the computer and other high-tech industries.

Let us now consider Singapore in greater detail, specifically its 30- to 40-year-long path from backwardness to one of the leading countries in terms of per capita GDP. Singapore is a city-state built on several swampy islands, its area and population are close to those of Kiev, and it has to import almost all its natural resources, including sand and fresh water. For a long time prior to 1965, Singapore was a British colony surrounded by hostile and belligerent Malaysia and Indonesia. Modern-day Singapore is an export-oriented country with a flexible economy based on shipping, banking, electronics, tourism, and foreign trade. Over the last several decades, economic growth averaged 8-9% a year, accompanied by low inflation and a balanced budget. The result was a tremendous growth in quality of life. In addition, Singapore boasts extremely low rates of crime and corruption. Fifty-five thousand out of its 4.8 million population are millionaires; average per capita GDP is $51,000 per year and average life expectancy is 81 years. Ethnically, Singapore population consists of Chinese, Malayans and Indians. For this, Singaporeans have had to sacrifice something, with several restrictions on freedoms: gambling is forbidden by law; the government may ban, for instance, a musical album if they find that its lyrics contradict the established system of moral values; and the parliament is, in effect, a single party chamber. A considerable role in Singaporean history was played by Lee Kuan Yew, who was prime minister from 1959 to 1990 (he currently holds the post of Minister Mentor) and devised and pursued a course of sweeping reforms. Incidentally, the Soviet press was silent about Singapore, probably due to its pointedly anticommunist stance and the suppression of communist movements in the country17.

The so-called "Asian Dragons" Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Brunei boasted high rates of economic growth in the 1980s. In each of these countries, an economic breakthrough was accompanied by dramatic changes in culture, lifestyle, and attitudes. The eastern Asian countries effectively used their economic achievements as instruments of relieving social tension, achieving political stabilization, and struggling against poverty. Although they adopted a Western economic model and, to a certain extent, a Western ideology, these countries have managed to preserve their national identities.

17

Recently, Singapore was given the world's top rating in terms of freedom of entrepreneurship.

Chapter 8

141

China also stepped onto a new path18; After the calamities of the so-called Cultural Revolution of 1966-1976, the country adopted a fundamentally different economic-development model. Emulating the example of its neighbors, China dropped its orthodox communist principles, and from Deng Xiaoping on, its leaders proclaimed a policy of "reforms and openness" and formulated their motto as "socialism with Chinese characteristics." In effect, they meant by this modernization of the country through gradual free-market reforms. One of the most decisive steps was made in 1987 when Deng stated that "it is incorrect to say that a market economy exists only under capitalism, while a planned economy exists only under socialism." Later there were several setbacks, such as the Tiananmen Square massacre, but in 1990, when Chinese leaders declared that "rejection of the market would doom the country to backwardness." China is currently rapidly progressing: it accounts for 40, 30, and 40% of the world's consumption of steel, iron ore, and cement, respectively. The institution of private property, which was virtually eliminated during the communist period, has been restored and appropriate constitutional amendment has been adopted. Its cheap and industrious workforce and certain regulatory and administrative benefits and incentives helped attract foreign businessmen to China, first from the neighboring Taiwan and Hong-Kong and then from the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea. China is getting increasingly reputable as a quality producer of goods under world-famous brands which have flooded markets worldwide. In the meantime, measures are taken to stimulate innovative economy too19. Incidentally, in terms of GDP percentage spent on research science China is ahead of Russia today. Chinese analysts estimate China's relative technological backwardness as 5 years behind the cutting edge (perhaps, 10 years would be a more accurate estimate here). Tens of thousands of young Chinese people study at Western colleges and universities and millions study English at home. Western mass culture is noticeably squeezing national culture out. In the recent few years some 150 million people have left their homes in the hinterland and moved to the Eastern coastal areas of China. What will happen there when the number of jobs declines due to the crisis and other causes? What cataclysms can be expected in the country? The Chinese national aspiration for world leadership has found a number of manifestations, such as the fastest and highest railways, the longest sea bridge, the largest hydroelectric power station (currently under construction), etc. China is rapidly conquering the world markets for clothes, footwear, home appliances, electronics, automobiles and other items20. China now has a good prospect of becoming a world leader in terms of production output. Although there are as many as 900 million peasants in China today who have very low incomes, there are reasons to expect drastic changes in the lifestyle, mindset, and ideology of the general Chinese public in the near future. There is much in common in the approaches and methods employed by all countries that have successfully implemented reforms. They include introduction of innovative technologies; best practices in labor organization, marketing, and management; and international cooperation, with special emphasis on reforming the system of education with the aim of training a skilled labor force, inviting specialists from other countries, as well as inculcating new ways of thinking and cultivating aspirations for a new, better life. Dramatic changes in the people's life and consciousness as well as in the political system and economy took place in the second half of the 20th century in Spain after the death of Francisco Franco and in Portugal after the resignation of Antonio de Oliveira Salazar. Also, the economy of Greece has undergone sweeping changes. Fundamental changes in economy and worldview have taken place in the former Soviet satellite states, specifically those that have entered the European Union Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. These countries have undergone strong and sweeping market reforms, including privatization, restitution, and lustration (see Footnote 12 to this chapter). Former functionaries in the regime have been banned from occupying positions of responsibility in the new government and from taking part in public political activism. In Chile, however, economic modernization took place under authoritarian rule; later, power was taken by leftcentrists who were at the helm for a long time. Brazil also is about to awake. The former Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan is demonstrating enviable economic achievements21. Israel deserves special mention, as it represents an example of an economically strong country with a high quality of life that was established in difficult political conditions and a harsh natural environment. The characteristic features of the Israeli economy include colossal
After many years of friendship (and substantial economic assistance provided to China by the Soviet Union), relations between the two countries dramatically worsened, and in the late 1960s there was even a military conflict at the Damanskiy island. Dissatisfied with the Soviet Union's new course, specifically the denunciation of Stalin, China came out with territorial and other claims and demands. 19 There were times when China was world leader in innovative technologies. After all, it were the Chinese who invented gunpowder, porcelain, paper and compass and first large ships were built in China. Then, for some reason unknown, a many-century-long hiatus had occurred. 20 After 10 years of hostility, the Russian-Chinese border saw a revival of cooperation and trade in the early 1990s. Joint merchant companies, production outlets, and mixed families have appeared in the area. 21 During the 1990s, Kazakhstan successfully implemented banking, pension, and several other reforms. For nearly 10 years now, GDP has been growing by 9-10% a year, and annual per capita income surpasses $3,500, which is higher than the corresponding figure in Russia. In the next few years, Kazakhstan may become one of the world's 50 most-developed countries.
18

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

142

military spending combined with constant and massive financial support from the United States and some other countries. Positive and progressive economic and social developments took place almost everywhere in the 20th century, although at different rates. It is important to note that the Scandinavian countries are in the lead and steadily maintain a high position in terms of quality of life. In addition to Norway and Finland, Sweden, as was already mentioned above, boasts economic achievements as well as neutrality in politics, minimal military spending, and progressive social policy. In the early 20th century, Sweden was a typical plutocratic country with corruption and other attributes of a bureaucratic state, whereas "now we see a strongly socially oriented country. They have managed to overcome their bureaucracy with the help of the following major instruments: civil society, a free and independent press, political competition, and a strong and independent judicial system, which effectively unmasks those who are corrupt and sends them to jail," as Russian State Duma Deputy Vladimir Ryzhkov observed. Many eastern countries have been increasingly active recently in their efforts aimed at overcoming their backwardness and catching up with the developed world. The following can be gleaned from recent publications in the media:
"The prime minister of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Malaysia's prime minister, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, are seeking to make their countries into democratic and well-developed Muslim states. Pursuing this goal, they are implementing economic and legal reforms, fighting against corruption, and creating a favorable investment climate. Their reforms are directed at promoting democracy while preserving Muslim values and traditions. Everything possible is being done to avoid conflicts along religious lines and make people understand that economic reforms are imperative. It is important to maintain a fragile balance while fighting against poverty and Islamic fundamentalism. Though the leaders of Turkey and Malaysia are not Arabs, both hope that their reforms will persuade the Arab world to emulate their example, which is particularly important in a situation where the West is so insistently trying to make the Islamic world dance to its tune."

The entry of hundreds of millions of people from the East into research and modern production has strongly accelerated scientific and technological progress on the planet. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to maintain balances in political and social structures and international relations in various regions and worldwide22. Failure to Modernize Iran

Inspired by the examples of successful liberalization in a number of countries, Shah of Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi embarked on a course of reforms in the 1960s with the aim of improving the country and the quality of life of its people. Liberal reformist plans called for making Iran into a secular state with pluralism and freedom of conscience instead of religious dogma. An educational program, dubbed the "White Revolution," was aimed at combating illiteracy. The reforms met with vehement opposition and resistance from the clergy, which did not want to lose its positions and influence. In Iran, as in many other Islamic countries, organized religion was a very influential institution, while the reforms launched by the Shah required fundamental changes in the elites, traditions, mindset, and way of life. In addition, the clan system, which is a strong part of many Eastern societies, damaged the process of reform a deeply rooted tradition required that people be selected for high posts in the government not based their qualifications, but because of blood kinship23. The situation was further aggravated by the fact that reforms in industry performed with foreign assistance left craftspeople and other layers of the population in disarray, and they readily joined the ranks led by the discontented clergy. Finally, the clergy launched a campaign against the Shah. All attempts by the secret services, police, and army to suppress dissent and enforce control, even changes in the government, only added exacerbated the situation. The power structures not only failed to keep the situation under control, but themselves betrayed the ruling regime. Commemorative marches organized at various locations throughout the country for those killed in protest demonstrations often developed into bloody clashes. Ayatollah Khomeini, who took the lead of the protesters, blamed all their troubles on the American imperialists and their henchman, the Shah. The
22

Per capita incomes (U.S. dollars) in selected countries by 2050, as forecast by PricewaterhouseCoopers (obviously, it is assumed that there are no global catastrophes or other unforeseen adverse developments):
U.S. 2005 2050 Average GDP growth tempo, % 40 340 88 440 2.4 Japan 36 700 70 640 1.2 Germany 33 450 68 260 1.5 Mexico 6700 42 880 4.8 Russia 4400 41 870 4.6 Brazil 3400 26 920 5.4 China 1660 23 530 6.3 India 670 12 780 7.6

23 One can read such excerpts in the media as the following "the true objective of the modernization was to ensure a free competition undistorted by political or other factors. In order to survive, the Iranian political regime and its bureaucratic elite had to allow at least some cosmetic changes, at least to proclaim something, at least on paper. However, the governmental machine was so bureaucratized and the interface between the masses and the ruling elite was so weak that any action taken on the top, even a positive one, was either bogged down or distorted. The parasitism of the governmental machine was flagrant and outrageous."

Chapter 8

143

Shah-sponsored modernization in Iran was, in effect, a Westernization, and the people's aversion to it developed into a massive infuriation against the West in general and the United States in particular. The ruling elite which was heavily corrupt, this adding to the problem failed to reform their traditional Islamic society. Islam drew popularity from its idea of egalitarianism, as opposed to the growing social stratification. The craftspeople and peasants who flowed into the cities became the main driving force behind the country's radical Islamization. As the regime escalated its massive repressions, the people's discontent reached a critical level,. Finally, this led to the overthrow of the Shah and Khomeini's coming to power in 1979. Islamic fundamentalism had won, and the slogan "Inqilab-i-Islami" immediately became popular throughout the Muslim world. The spirit and slogans of the Iranian Revolution are still exploited by various radical Islamic organizations. Iran in modern geopolitics After its unsuccessful attempt at modernization, Iran took up a firm anti-Western stance. In 1979, Islamic militants seized the American embassy in Tehran and held it for four months. There followed a disastrous war with Iraq (1980-1988) that claimed nearly 1 million lives on both sides. The current president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is pursuing a pointedly anti-Israeli and anti-American policy, actively militarizing the country, seeking to acquire the technology to produce nuclear weapons and making sizable investment in rocketry development. He is actively supporting and arming radical Islamic groups, and he has officially declared his intention of wiping Israel from the face of the Earth24. A former empire, Iran now aspires to the role of a "consolidating center" of the region. These aspirations are all the more realistic as Iran's neighbors, which have often been its rivals, Iraq and Afghanistan, are now defeated. A large part of the Iran's population is developing an extremist mentality based on hatred of the Western world. As in a number of other countries of that region, slogans and dogmas promulgated by religious leaders have the strongest influence on public consciousness. In a long-term perspective, it is rather significant how Russian-Iranian relations will develop. It is quite possible that Russia and Iran will become equal in terms of size of the population before the middle of this century. Moreover, the Caucasus is unstable and has a long history of being a source of conflict and war. Regularities of Modernization Processes Differing opinions exist regarding how to modernize backward countries. In modern political science, the term "modernization" is defined as "a combination of economic, demographic, psychological, and political changes to be undergone by a traditional society in the course of its transformation into a modern-style society" (New Philosophical Encyclopedia, Vol. 2). In the countries that underwent economic modernization after World War Two, liberalism and democracy were basic elements of modernization; however, in the countries that lost the war, the initial phase of reforms was performed under external autocratic rule. For example, denationalization and other reforms in the postwar Germany, which contributed to the country's economic modernization and changes in the mindset of its people, were to a large extent carried out by the Western occupying powers. In Japan, General Douglas MacArthur forcefully introduced a democratic constitution (from that point on, Japan was officially considered a democracy)25. The present-day attempts to democratize Afghanistan and Iraq and reform their economies, mindsets, and ways of life, have been made mostly by use of force. It has turned out that it is far from easy to combine democracy and a modern economy with Islamic principles. "Some Americans have drawn wrong conclusions [from the recent developments in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe] they have come to think that any totalitarian regime is a colossus with feet of clay, that it only needs a gentle push to fall, as happened, for example, with the Nicolae Ceausescu regime in Romania. I believe this was the irrational thinking with regard to Iraq" (taken from an interview with Francis Fukuyama in Moscow in 2007). One of the near-term missions in Afghanistan and Iraq is to transfer responsibility for the country to a newly elected democratic government. Still, it is difficult to forecast at this point how much time and effort it will take for Iraq to establish a democratic and liberal order, including with freedom of information, eradication of gender discrimination, etc. However, the Afghan reforms "have already given the opportunity for millions of boys and girls to go to school in all the country's regions. We are on the path toward stable democracy, we have adopted a new Constitution in which both men and women have the right to vote and where freedom of speech and freedom of the press are guaranteed to all. We have done everything possible to help out nation regain its honor and dignity," according to President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai. One also cannot be certain that the reforms in Iraq and Afghanistan (after they are finally accomplished) will trigger a "domino effect" in other Muslim countries.
24 In his speeches, which are heavily filled with religious rhetoric, he points to an impending end of the world, which "will come after calamities and sufferings and establish justice and peace on Earth." 25 Here it is appropriate to note that unlike in Germany and Japan, where modernization was accomplished under a foreign governance within a span of some five years, the United States has failed to achieve similar results even over much longer time periods in such countries as Haiti, Philippines, Panama, Cuba and Nicaragua.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

144

Many question the applicability of Western modernization models to Asian countries, in which people's worldview is based on Confucianism. Unlike in the West, where the last few centuries saw the triumph of such values as liberalism, individualism and privacy, the East asserts that "the interests of a community preempt individual interests, state power preempts freedom, and obligations preempt rights. Concord and cooperation are preferred to a diversity of opinions and competition. The incompatibility of democracy and Confucianism is manifested in that Confucianism lacks support for individualism and is based on the possibility of addressing one's conscience to seek ultimate judgment," according to Francis Fukuyama. Igor Bestuzhev-Lada said about Confucianism that "its essence is to honor one's parents, to respect ones elders, to be loyal to the monarch (the people), to be zealous in work and to be humane in consciousness and behavior."
In his study of the Japanese sociopolitical system, the Dutch journalist, writer, and professor Karel van Wolferen, wrote in 1989 that "Western democracy, where competition and individualism are the necessary attributes, does not blend well with the traditional Japanese values. Some political scientists went further to argue that despite its officially proclaimed democratic system of rule, Japan was not a democracy, at least not a democracy in the classical Western sense, but was rather a soft autocracy,' where power was shared between the bureaucracy, the Liberal Democratic Party's elite, and the finance and industry tycoons. With time, the Japanese autocracy drifted toward a more democratic system, but there had been not much progress in this direction, not before 1993, when the Liberal Democratic cabinet fell."

What happened in Singapore at the end of the 20th century was truly amazing and phenomenal. The new regime began with major reshuffles in managerial personnel based on both professional qualification and ethical criteria. Simultaneously, they placed the media under control and suppressed opposition. As tested in Singapore, the "mild autocracy" approach proved to be an effective tool for liberal economic reforms.

Francis Fukuyama wrote in one of his works about the complexity of the modernization process that "although modernization theory proposed a correlation between development and democracy, it was hazy on what the causal connections between the two phenomena were. If Asian countries preserve the current high rate of economic growth, democratization processes will continue there, and the ultimate result of this democratization will likely be very different from the modern American democracy, which has experienced and continues to experience serious problem in balancing individual rights and freedoms with the interests of the social community... There is not just one path leading to a modern society: Countries which that modernization recently followed different paths than their predecessors did... many countries, particularly in Asia, have successfully accomplished a transition to democracy via autocracy For example, Singapore managed to combine a capitalist economy with authoritarian regime with no freedom of speech or political dissent; they believed that Western-style democracy would have a destructive effect on society, promoting all-permissiveness and causing social instability."

In many Eastern countries, postindustrial revolutions were carried out without demolition of the traditional mentality, and Western technical achievements were adopted and put to use without an all-out Westernization of society. In terms of their system of values, paradigm and lifestyle, these countries are classed as "traditional civilizations." A different approach to economic modernization is being employed in the countries of Eastern Europe that recently joined the European Union. Now that they have become parts of the new superstate, they will be receiving economic, political, and other help from the Union and its governmental structures. (In a certain sense, these countries will be, at least in part, placed under external management). Very soon, we will see how this works out. Being discussed are possibilities of getting other countries that border the European Union involved in the modernization process by means of admitting them to EU membership. Javier Solana, the EU minister for foreign affairs, said that "the main principle of the European neighborhood policy establishes that those countries which are actively moving along the path of reforms will be encouraged by further rapprochement with the Union. This shall apply to our neighbors in the south and in the east. Prerequisites for successful democratic development include free media, an independent judicial system, a dynamic civil society, effectively functioning government agencies, and a dynamic private sector of the economy." As was noted above, it was the weakness of the reformers (or the lack of external management) that led the modernization attempts in Iran to a failure. As we see, old elites, religious authorities, and sometimes even the majority of the population may be actively opposed to changes; their consciousness and worldview may not be ready to accept new, progressive ideas. A phenomenal situation has formed in China whereby modernization is under way under a communist regime26. Transformation of the economy and people's mentalities and traditions is a great affair, and it is, therefore, not surprising that positive results have so far been achieved only in a very limited number of countries. It is interesting to note that those countries that modernized recently and climbed to modern levels of production and quality of life managed to achieve this much more rapidly than the Western countries that modern-

26 "Chinese leaders will face a dilemma over how much to accommodate pluralistic pressures to relax political control or risk a popular backlash if they do not. Beijing may pursue an 'Asian path of democracy,' which could involve elections at the local level and a consultative mechanism on the national level, perhaps with the Communist Party retaining control over the central government." (Mapping the Global Future, Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project, December 2004).

Chapter 8

145

ized centuries ago. This seems to have been because they received Western experience and technologies, they did not bear the burden of a military budget, their citizens worked diligently and were motivated to achieve a stated goal, and, finally, they received both financial and organizational support from developed countries. It is clearly visible that availability of natural resources is not a crucial factor for the success of a country's modernization. Abundance of ores and fuels is less significant than the supremacy of law, effective economic policy, low corruption, quality of administration, and positive mood of the population27. As has been repeatedly stressed above, significant factors affecting modernization include the strength of traditions and their penetration, in other words, national identity. As far as Russia is concerned (we here assume that Russia is one of the candidates for modernization), it should be noted that this country is prone to having a rigid top-down system of government. Russia remained a monarchy long after most European countries had become republics, and what replaced monarchy in Russia was a totalitarian system. Today, Russia is not being very successful in building a democracy; quite often we resort to rule by order from the center28. World experience indicates that examples of successful modernization are rare29. When all the calamities have been left behind, people tend to perceive what happened as a miracle, because it is often hard to find rational explanations in terms of cause and effect. Nevertheless, the successful modernizations that have occurred present a statistical regularity30. The extraordinarily fast and radical transformations that occurred in the second half of the 20th century are without precedent in the history of mankind. However, the success of the ten or twelve countries that have seen dramatic increases in quality of life is in contrast with the misery of others the governments of which are unable to control the country, where the people's staple needs are not met, and where the leaders cannot lead the nation along a path of progress. Furthermore, often modernization processes are thwarted by the selfish interests of particular groups of people or by better-developed countries that are not interested in the appearance of new competitors on the market. Here it is appropriate to quote George Soros' statement that "the main cause of misery and poverty in the world is bad government." One thing to add is that the ability to drastically boost labor efficiency and productivity, to work miracles, is a feature of the psyche of many people. This quality often reveals itself in times of trouble and crucial moments of history. It is well known that when in need an engineer, an artist, or a writer can mobilize his or her creative potential, the result sometimes being a breakthrough or masterpiece. When something like this happens on a countrywide scale, it is called an "economic miracle." Each time, the outcome depends on the people's mindset, mobilization, choice of strategy, and, quite often, on external management and/or assistance. A necessary condition for a real breakthroughs to occur is a proper understanding by the masses of the tasks facing them and the best methods of their fulfillment. One of the main tasks facing the world community today is to find ways of influencing countries where people are suffering and are fertile ground for extremist and terrorist movements. It is important to encourage the people of these countries to step onto the path of progress and transition to a new, better quality of life and to render assistance to these countries, if required.

27 Indeed, the economic reforms in Russia, a country possessing vast natural resources and exporting them, turned out to be less efficient than almost in all countries which have rapidly advanced recently. "A country's wealth need not depend on natural resources, it may even ultimately benefit from their absence; The greatest resource of all is Man. The state only needs to ensure that people's talents are used to the full. Capitalism can work well only if the fiscal and regulatory burden on the businesses and individuals is low" (Margaret Thatcher). 28 As the Russian saying goes, "what we have is absolute power at the top and absolute lawlessness on the bottom." 29 Nobel Prize winner Friedrich Von Hayek compared the process of developing a democratic system of rule and statecraft to the work of a piano tuner. 30 Top ten countries on the Economic Freedom of the World 2008 rating list published by the Cato Institute included Hong-Kong (special administrative region of China), Singapore, New Zealand, Switzerland, Great Britain, Chile, Canada, the United States, Australia and Ireland. Russia ranked No. 101 out of the total 141 countries graded.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

146

Chapter 9

Globalization. Economic Crises

Production, economic, and financial contacts are assuming a global nature and ceasing to depend on state borders. Mankind, which has been divided for many centuries geographically and ethnically, disunited because of different languages, religions, and ideologies, is gradually transforming into a single community. Globalization is a policy catering to the interests of businesspeople first and foremost, seeking to produce their goods more cheaply and sell them in greater amounts. The number of migrants seeking jobs and better living conditions is increasing. These tendencies are growing thanks to the appearance of qualitatively new technological means: worldwide information networks, heavy-cargo ships, aviation and motor transport. Simpler rules have appeared for migrants crossing borders and for their naturalization in receiving countries. Yet, globalization brings about a wider gap in living standards between the highly advanced and backward states. Globalization also leads to excesses caused by the mixture of populations with different religions and ways of life. roduction, economic, and financial contacts are increasingly assuming a global nature, ceasing to depend on state borders. The world is no longer a conglomeration of individual countries; in many cases, economies and politics are determined by transnational agencies and corporations. National economies are tending to unite into a global, unified system, while worldwide information networks and means of transportation are becoming increasingly effective. A system of production in which the components of a product are fabricated in different parts of the world is becoming the norm. The result is regional specialization and division of labor on an international scale. The choice of location for factories and investment depends first of all on the prospects for future profits, the decisive factors here being the cost of labor and political stability. She stock market and financial speculation are tending to acquire greater importance. In the terms of the economy and production, the world is becoming multipolar with a number of countries and regions winning a reputation as sources of high quality products. At the same time, other countries are degrading into sources of raw materials and consumer markets. Globalization, according to Thomas Friedman, the Pulitzer Prize winning author and columnist for the New York Times, stands for "the inexorable integration of markets, nation-states and technologies to a degree never witnessed before in a way that is enabling individuals, corporations, and nation-states to reach around the world faster, deeper and cheaper than ever before Globalization means the propagation of free-market capitalism in practically all countries of the world. It has its own set of economic rules which are based on the opening and privatization of national economies with the aim of enhancing their competitiveness and boosting their attractiveness for foreign capital." Sociologist Ervin Laszlo wrote in his book Macroshift: Navigating the Transformation to a Sustainable World that "this is a much deeper process than the widely discussed globalization of the local, regional and national economies. The transformation currently under way is not purely economic, but a civilizational process. It is a constituent part of a long-term trend toward growing integration of different groups, economies, societies and cultures into unified systems that embrace bigger numbers of people and areas. Economic globalization is part of this process, but only a part1. Also, the Westphalian system of states, the system of world arrangement based on treaties between states, is said to be falling apart. As Russian futurologist Vladimir Tsaplin wrote, "in the psychological sense, globalization means the acknowledgment of the fact that there is a single community of human beings living on Earth that, for natural biological and historical reasons, has for many hundreds of years been divided by every conceivable type of borders, such as geographical, economic, ideological, ethnic, language, religious, etc. ones"

The Background of Globalization

The origin of globalization dates back to many centuries, when trade began to develop and regular ties formed between countries and regions. Trade routes between countries located many hundreds of kilometers away from each other appeared long before the beginning of the Common Era. Charles Louis Montesquieu wrote that "two nations that traffic with each other become reciprocally dependent, for if one has an interest in buying, the other has an interest in selling, and thus their union is founded on their mutual necessities." Here it is appropriate to recall how world religions, ideologies, social systems, and technical innovations have propagated across state borders. In a certain sense, the era of colonization was an era of globalization, as it led to the formation of new economic ties and proliferation of modern production techniques and technologies; at the same time, it involved subjugation and exploitation of backward countries.
1

The development of the human race is said to comprise the four main stages of savagery, barbarism, civilization, and now globalization.

Chapter 9

147

The most impressive integration between the major European countries occurred at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century. This period saw the appearance of the telephone and telegraph and the rapid development of transport, highly efficient production lines, industrial cooperation, and world trade. This led to unprecedented interdependence of countries consolidated by their mutual interest in cooperation. At that time, it seemed to many that new wars were impossible and would never happen, and they argued that bountiful prosperity would make countries forget strife2,3. These hopes were not destined for realization; as it grew stronger, the German bourgeoisie developed the desire to strengthen its position in the world, expand, change the state's borders, and grab colonies. Simultaneously, it was becoming difficult for Great Britain to maintain its dominating position as the largest colonial power. Contrary to expectations, human aggressiveness prevailed and World War I started. The consequences were formidable, including the breakup of Austrio-Hungary, territorial losses for Russia, and damage suffered by Germany and the British Empire. Then came the Great Depression of the 1920s and 1930s. The further history of the 20th century was largely determined by the notorious totalitarian regimes. In the 1930s, a large part of Europe, with the calamities of World War I still fresh in the people's memory, surrendered to the Nazis almost without a fight, and the Soviet Union closed in from the East. An even more brutal and murderous war was to come, again caused by the Germany's hegemonic aspirations. The end of World War II was shortly followed by another division, the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States, which put mankind on the verge of self-annihilation. As a result of these cataclysms, the era of globalization was delayed until the last quarter of the 20th century, when its trends could at last manifest themselves4. Many of the 20th century's developments have been appraised as "struggle of Soviet state-monopolistic capitalism against Western transnational capitalism," as Igor Yakovlev put it in The History of Mankind. In making predictions of the future, Yakovlev speaks about the possible creation of a 'united world economy and united social system.' In the 1980s, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the U.S. Ministry of Finance developed recommendations for carrying out world trade reform; in 1989, the Washington Consensus was formed, and it was declared that customs barriers should be demolished everywhere. In due course, customs tariffs were pushed down and capital markets appeared with floating exchange rates of the world's major currencies. The share of international trade in Gross World Product (GWP) rose from 1% as of the early 19th century to approximately 25% as of 2000. The daily currency exchange turnover (all currencies combined) rose from several millions of dollars in 1900 to $820 billion in 1992 and further to $1.5 trillion in 1998. Later, the daily composite volume of international financial transactions rose to several trillions of dollars5. Regional economic groups began to take shape. Dozens of such groups have appeared, including the Andean Common Market (ANCOM) of Bolivia, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela, Mercosur, South America's leading trading bloc; the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which embraced Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, Hong-Kong, China and other countries); the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), which is an organization of countries with access to the Pacific Ocean, including Chile, the United States, Australia, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, China, Korea, North Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, etc.); the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), containing the United States, Canada, and Mexico; the African Union (AU); the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), comprising Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan6; the Southern African Development Community (SADK); the D8 (a group of eight Muslim countries); the European Union; and the United Economic Space (UES) of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Over the period from 1960-1990 the Arab countries set up some twenty different interstate unions
2 After his trip around Europe in 1911, the famous British historian Arnold Toynbee wrote in his memoirs that the countries of continental Europe had managed to do without state borders. He could move from one country to other without having to complete any entry formalities. Many of those with whom he spoke argued that the great powers of Europe would never again wage war against one another. 3 It is interesting to note that very similar conclusions about the impossibility of global conflicts in the future are often pronounced today: According to Thomas Friedman, the more the countries will be tying their economies through the mechanisms of international integration and trade, the less they will want to fight with their neighbors. The countries which citizens and economies are integrated in the global system of supplies, Friedman writes in his book The World is Flat (2005), simply cannot afford to stop working for a week, even for an hour, to indulge themselves in a little war. Regrettably, the experience of our history only leads us to recall that we have been through all this before. It is easy to see that conflicts still emerge and, with the progress in weapons, it is becoming possible for a global conflict to be unleashed by small groups of people, even by individuals. 4 The main stages of the world's gradual development into a unified system are as follows. Stage 1 (the 15th-16th centuries) was characterized by extensive seafaring and great geographical discoveries. Stage 2 (the end of the 19th century to the beginning of the 20th) marked a breakthrough in transport and communications. Finally, stage 3 (the present time) is characterized by economic and informational globalization, which will probably be followed by political globalization (See Chapter 18, Project V. Geopolitics). 5 According to media publications, the composite worth of the globalized world economy had increased from $22.8 trillion as of 1990 to $53.3 trillion as of 2007. The volume of world trade increased 133% over the same period. 6 In addition to India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan, which have observer status. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization embraces about onehalf of the world population.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

148

and associations, and the Arab Cooperation Council has been the supreme coordinating body since 1989. Fifty African countries (except for the Republic of South Africa and several undeveloped countries) formed numerous interstate organizations and alliances. A plan has been adopted from the phased creation of an African Economic Community (AEC). There are also the British Commonwealth of Nations, which unites over 50 former colonies and dominions of Great Britain; the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS); and a number of other intergovernmental organizations that are more or less effective. The World Trade Organization (WTO), which emerged on the scene in the 1990s, views its paramount goals as elimination of barriers and discrimination in international trade and regulation of trade disputes. There are about 150 WTO member countries today, and Russia will be probably be admitted in the near future. The increasingly popular term "Golden Billion" refers to the combined population of the so-called "First World," or member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which currently embraces approximately 25 countries. Three dominant centers are The European Union, North America (the United States and Canada), and Japan. Advantages and Disadvantages of Globalization By the end of the 20th century, mankind had attained much that would facilitate globalization, such as highload cargo-carrying ships, aircraft, motor vehicles, high-speed railroads, and cargo containers that help transport millions of tons of freight over thousands of kilometers. Also on the side of globalization is the development of highly efficient machine tools, automatic production lines and factories, and, of course, access to information via radio, television, the press, and the Internet. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested recently in global broadband communications technology and installation of fiber-optic cables on the ocean floor. Thomas Friedman maintains that we are witnessing unification of the world's centers of knowledge into a common global network, which, if not spoiled by politics or terrorists, has a potential of becoming the herald of the epoch of unprecedented bonanza and renovation. A very convenient platform for various types of cooperation has appeared7. The changes brought into our life by the latest technological breakthroughs are being compared to those brought by Gutenberg's printing press, though today changes are occurring much faster. "The Internet is making the world into a huge common marketplace," says Rao Radhesh, an Indian businessman8. The conditions for globalization have radically improved as the once "closed" countries, such as China, Russia and Eastern Europe, with a combined population of over 1 billion people, have become open, and India has become more active. The role of new, modern-style universities in China and India is hard to overestimate. The most talented young people study in these universities9,10. Millions of people travel across state borders in search of new impressions, temporary work, education, sports, art, or a new place of permanent residence. Many borders can be crossed without even a visa. With modern computer systems, it is possible to do many things at a distance, including analyzing, making decisions, transferring money, and performing other financial and banking operations. The 20th century saw great migration from villages to cities and from agriculture to industry, whereby people have become more dynamic. Tens of thousands of transnational corporation have appeared, which now have decisive influence on the world economy and strong influence on world politics. Most national governments (including that of Russia) have delegated part of their power to international organizations and recognize the supremacy of international law over their national legislations. Nevertheless, and despite a formally proclaimed equality, it is the rich, developed countries, specifically the United States, Great Britain, Germany, and France, that run things in the international organizations, primarily to serve their own interests. Gradually being overcome is the problem of the unfairly high import quotas and duties (import duties have a tendency to drop, albeit slowly) and that of state-subsidized agriculture in the developed countries, making the
7 For instance, here are some facts regarding the new era. Many of the tax declarations prepared by American citizens are processed in India, Xray photographs taken in the United States are processed overnight in India or in Australia and hundreds of thousands of operators in India answer online inquiries on various issues coming from many countries. 8 Radhesh also has stated that "once we developed the infrastructure that made our world very small, we started to exploit it, made progress, and now we are reaping the fruits of these our efforts." 9 The imminent changes in economy and technology are often compared with the "meteorite which hit the Earth and killed the dinosaurs" (Thomas Friedman, The World Is Flat.) 10 Here it is appropriate to recall that globalization tendencies were foreseen by Marx and Engels. Characterizing capitalism, they called it a force which would eliminate all feudal, national and religious conventionalities hampering the creation of a world system of production and consumption. The Communist Manifesto states that "the need of a constantly expanding market for its products chases the bourgeoisie over the entire surface of the globe. It must nestle everywhere, settle everywhere, establish connections everywhere... it has drawn from under the feet of industry the national ground on which it stood... [new industries are introduced] that no longer work up indigenous raw material, but raw material drawn from the remotest zones; industries whose products are consumed, not only at home, but in every quarter of the globe... we have intercourse in every direction, universal inter-dependence of nations... The bourgeoisie compels all nations... to adopt the bourgeois mode of production... it creates a world after its own image... and draws all, even the most barbarian, nations into civilization..."

Chapter 9

149

products of less-developed countries uncompetitive on the world market. Barriers, such as strict requirements for compliance to national standards, packing and sanitary rules, etc., are gradually being lifted. The developed countries that possess modern technologies are progressing more rapidly, and the gap between them and the developing countries is increasing. Poor countries are convenient locations for deploying production facilities due to low cost of labor. In return, hosting countries acquire modern technologies, and culture of the developed countries and the local population receive appropriate training. Some former Third World countries have managed to take advantage of this process to achieve major breakthroughs. The combination of high technologies, cheap labor, and the delay in growth of the quality of life helped to achieve truly phenomenal results. By reinvesting profit into economic development, the "Asian Tigers" managed to join the club of prosperous countries within a historically brief period of time. In order for a country to join the global system of cooperation, it is required to standardize its laws, procedures, and policies in a word, to put on the "golden straightjacket," to use Thomas Friedman's expression. Ensuring of the prevalence of the private sector, massive privatization of state-owned industries, achievement of a low rate of inflation, price stability and a balanced budget, abolition of import quotas, a minimum possible level of import tariffs, lifting of restrictions on foreign investment, reduction of the bureaucratic apparatus, curbing corruption, etc. must be implemented. This requires much effort. To those who object to this plan by referring to difficulties or the impossibility of achieving it, it is appropriate to quote Friedman: "No one is obliged to put on a straightjacket. If your culture and social conditions are incompatible, it only deserves commiseration. The global free market system, the rapidly changing world, and the golden straightjacket have been created by the colossal historical forces If you believe you are able to resist these changes you are only deceiving yourselves." The situation is further complicated by differing opinions within the developing countries themselves. While there are movements in favor of integration into the world community, others, to the contrary, advocate isolation, refusing to accept innovation and opposing it to ideological and religious dogmas. As they learn about the tempting comforts of life in the developed counties, the younger generation in the backward countries comes to want radical changes, while the tradition-bound middle-aged and elderly, who are mostly in the leading positions, complicate modernization processes. Introduction of modern technologies is often complicated by the national specificities of the countries entering on the path of modernization. It is sometimes said that these nations have one foot in the vanishing old traditions and the other in the mainstream of movies, music, ideas, and goods. Transitional periods and radical reforms are often accompanied by crises that not everybody is ready to endure. Sometimes this leads to demands to revert to the old system, protests against reforms, unrest, and disorder. It would be possible to accept a slow, gradual course of modernization for the Third World if it were not for tensions that are becoming increasingly acute proportionally to the growing gap in qualities of life. Dealing with these tensions cannot wait. The backward countries are experiencing rapid population growth, and their alreadylow standards of living are often in decline. This situation creates a fertile medium for extremist movements and immigration, both legal and illegal, which the rich countries are not able to manage. Globalization processes have led to the appearance of two domains coexisting adjacent to one another: One domain comprises governments, constitutions, and sluggish bureaucratic apparatuses, while the second is the scene of lively business, production, and circulation of money. Everything is done quickly there, activities are not too widely advertised, and rules are not always strictly obeyed; people often act under assumed names; move production from one country to another; invest, obtaining large profits; and use offshore zones to avoid paying high taxes. The budgets and financial turnovers of individual companies are sometimes much larger than those of many countries. There are a number of countries the governments of which do not control such important processes as growth or reduction in the number of jobs and flows of information, capital, goods, services, people, and technologies across state borders. In view of this, it is understandable why politicians often dislike big businesspeople: they dislike them because they cannot control them. In the modern world, political decisions are often made by those who do not have legal political status, sometimes decisions are made not by those who are in government or parliament, but by the shadow economy businesspeople (or big organized crime figures). Freedom of information leaves governments without one of their major levers of influence, manipulation (or distortion) of information; privately owned media become instruments of political influence. The government's role often becomes limited to issues of internal, external, and social security, and even in these areas it does not have full freedom of action. According to Thomas Friedman, the question of the very existence of national states, specific cultures, government institutions, democratic traditions and legal restraints will be getting increasingly acute. Some of them will remain and some will become extinct only to provide a further impetus to the development of global cooperation. Cultural globalization is gaining momentum as well. The best performances and shows, sport championships, etc. are becoming global-scale events watched by hundreds of millions, sometimes billions, of people. In a cer-

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

150

tain sense, they are not just passive spectators: with interactive television, it is now possible to take viewers' opinions into account. Globalization of culture creates a trend toward its unification, and again, due to its higher development and stronger information systems and media, the West dominates in this process to the detriment of numerous other cultures. According to cultorologists, the world is experiencing a "macdonaldization" of culture, cultural imperialism, and Western cultural aggression. At the same time, what the modern world probably needs are the ideas contained in the Eastern philosophies and teachings, particularly Buddhism and Confucianism, the principles of self-restraint, nonviolence, etc. Globalization is often called a continuation of the policy of Westernization, i.e., imposition of a Western lifestyle with a view to its achieving global dominance. The basic elements of Western lifestyle include its political principles and institutions, such as democracy, parliamentarianism, and freedom of speech, and the free market economy. The process of Westernization began with the European colonization of the Americas, Australia, New Zealand, and other regions around the globe. Of the total of 188 countries that were UN members as of early in 2000, 36 represented Europe and another 125 represented territories that have been under European rule at different times. Over the last several centuries, Western civilization has rapidly developed, leaving the Arabic, Chinese, Indian, and other civilizations (and to a certain extent Russian civilization) behind in many areas, has spread worldwide, and is continuing to strengthen its position. If in the past the Europeans (and later the United States) had certain limited "areas of interests," their area of interest is now spread over the whole world. Another sign of Westernization is the English language becoming the most popular tool for international communication worldwide. The changes in the world order that occurred at the end of the 20th century can be analyzed from a different viewpoint as well, according to which there were three worlds during the Cold War the capitalist world, the socialist world, and the Third World. A certain balance was maintained between the interests of these three, but now the victors in the Cold War have gained the upper hand. The leading and rich countries now determine economic policy and other rules of the game, and are trying to use backward countries to serve their ends. As in any other form of competition, those who are stronger benefit. However, outsiders can benefit as well, especially if they demonstrate vitality and the ability to organize (see Chapter 8 for specific examples). Transnational corporation are corporations holding assets in several countries and occupying dominating positions in one or several industries. In the modern world, transnational corporations are characterized by dynamism and highly effective and flexible production and sales systems. As of the late 1990s, there were approximately 60,000 transnational corporations in operation with 500,000 outlets worldwide. At the beginning of this century, of the 25 largest transnational corporations, six were based in the United States, another 15 had their head offices in Western Europe, three were in Japan, and one was in Canada. Their outlets and most of their workforce are located in countries with cheaper labor forces. For example, according to recent data, one of the world's largest transnational corporations, Hewlett-Packard, employs 142,000 people in 178 countries, and most of its employees work outside of the United States. With modern means of communication and data transfer, it is possible for specialists to work effectively many thousands of kilometers away from the office. Russia also has a number of strong transnational companies. Lukoil, for example, reportedly operated several thousand filling stations outside Russia. Unfortunately, globalization of industries, trade, finance, and information is accompanied by globalization of crime and terrorism. What is worse, globalization of these evils proceeds faster than globalization of mutual understanding between nations, races, and religions; the development of tolerance; and a shared desire to fight poverty, tyranny, crime and terrorism. Antiglobalism Globalization has its opponents as well; the movement known as "antiglobalism" is supported by a number of popular associations. Antiglobalists are opposed to both governments and business associations. Their motives are obvious: they maintain that the benefits of globalization are unfairly shared, that globalization only works to widen the gap between the rich and the poor, and that it aggravates ecological problems. Proliferation of synthetic and genetically modified foodstuffs are blamed on globalization as well. Antiglobalists focus their protests against Americocentrism, privileges for WASPs (White Anglo-Saxon Protestants), and the world division into the "Golden Billion" and those who serve them. The old question of the balance between business and ethics is becoming increasingly acute. Ethics is akin to justice and fairness, while business is about efficiency and profit. Socialist ideas are not alien to antiglobalists as well, as they are averse to separation of society into proprietors and hired workers. Many are driven by the desire to preserve their national identity and fear of losing their status and positions in a world based on the supremacy of global interests. Small businesses fear, and not without reason, losing out in competition to transnational corporations. Calls are made to close the International Monetary Fund, to disband the World Trade Organization, to split up transnational corporations, etc.

Chapter 9

151

The antiglobalist movement is not uniform; it comprises many organizations, including moderate, dissenter, and extremist ones. Most conspicuous are Greenpeace and Human Rights. Other large antiglobalist organizations include People's Global Actions, Global Resistance, and Friends of the Earth, all of which advocate peaceful methods. Unlike those mentioned above, the Anarchist Federation calls for radical action, such as revolution and building of a class-free society (their slogans are obviously very similar to those of the Russian revolutionaries of the early 20th century). The world of business has its own laws, and one does not need to win elections to become a big businessperson; the world of business is ruled by the interests of profit-making, not by humanism. The heads of governments and members of parliaments often choose to serve the interests of big business. Moreover, such progressive developments as process automation, introduction of innovative technologies, and scale integration often increase unemployment, making masses of people redundant. Privatization is also fraught with similar painful consequences: having adopted an innovative technology or a more effective management system, a company owner will fire those who have become redundant. Artificially induced financial crises (organized in someone's interests) cause massive impoverishment of workers, ruin businesses, and sometimes cause governments to fall. All these manifestations of the free market economy obviously work to damage the interests of many people and naturally cause protests. Here it is appropriate to quote former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan: "Globalization opens wide opportunities, but as things stand today its fruits are very unevenly distributed while its costs are shared by all. Our main task today is to make globalization into a positive force for all people in the world, not a factor dooming billions of people to poverty." The method chosen by antiglobalists for their struggle is to organize large rallies at the locations of high profile international meetings or conferences. The protesters are often well organized, quickly massing at designated locations. Their rallies include representatives of different countries, radical environmentalists, the "old lefts," anti-Americanists, anarchists, overt neofascists, the eternally unemployed, and bored students. Typical slogans are "Down with transnational corporations sucking natural resources out of the Third World while ruining its environment!" and Support the developing countries! Forgive the debts owed by the developing countries to the West!" Antiglobalist demonstrations are sometimes accompanied by violence, and it cannot be ruled out that terrorist acts may one day follow. The first large-scale antiglobalist action took place in Seattle, United States, in 1999. The antiglobalist protests in Genoa, Italy, in 2001 forced the authorities to mobilize 15 thousand policemen and guards, including even the air force. In the clashes between the protesters and the police, one person was killed, some 500 were wounded, and over 200 were arrested. Damage caused by the unrest in Genoa is estimated at approximately 100 million dollars. "Make Poverty History" was the slogan of a 200,000-strong antiglobalist rally in Edinburgh, Scotland, in July 2005. Thus far, governments have managed to neutralize antiglobalist protests and minimize their influence. A good example of this is the performance of Russian police and special forces in St. Petersburg during the G8 summit in July 2006. Antiglobalist demonstrations timed to the June 2007 G8 meeting in Germany bore a more peaceful character; however, clashes with the police did occur shortly before the summit's opening. At the same time, the heightened measures of control imposed by governments in response to terrorist threats are causing public discontent. In effect, this amounts to a curtailment of democracy and a restriction of freedom. Will the security agencies remain within reasonable limits, such as control of large money transfers, data sent via the Internet, and fingerprint checks at the border crossing checkpoints, or will they resort to such extreme measures as chip implantation? To a large extent, this will depend on the development of events and on people themselves (that is, how actively they will resist moves to restrict their freedom). It is well known that violent actions (such as those imposed on Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestinian enclaves) are often opposed by the world public in general and by antiglobalists in particular11. There are many serious problems facing the world today, including in the economy, politics, and common threats. These problems require coordinated response and consistent joint action, but it is difficult to find balanced solutions in a situation in which countries have such different interests and positions. There is a wide variety of ideologies, governmental systems, interests, and levels of development in the modern world. In addition, the growing gap between the numbers of people living in the developed and backward countries is fueling opposition and extremism. Practices widely used in the 20th century to ameliorate the effects of the free market included antimonopoly laws, progressive taxes, guaranteed minimum salaries and unemployment benefits, social protection, etc. Trade unions played an important role in the establishment of these policies. The economic doctrine of John Maynard Keynes, which was partly implemented after World War II, called for government interference in the economy in order to ensure steady growth, full employment, and redistribution of wealth in favor of social justice. This doctrine was enforced with the help of special regulatory agencies with extragovernmental status. Comprehensive national economy development programs were developed in Norway, Holland, France, and a number of
11

In the future, the United States and its allies will probably resort to similar violent acts against North Korea, Iran, or other countries. At one point, they may decide it is time to neutralize the Pakistani nuclear arsenal to eliminate the threat of its coming into the hands of Islamic extremists.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

152

other countries. Putting additional pressure on the free market part of the world was the existence of socialist countries, which encouraged the working classes to fight more actively for their rights. The Stockholm School of Economics, which was active in the 1930s, promulgated the concept of "general well-being" (Sweden achieved the best results in implementing this concept). Many countries with a free-market economy succeeded in building fairly good systems of social welfare, and there even appeared a stratum of the population who preferred not to work at all, but live on social benefits and subsidies. Here it is appropriate to recall how Andrey Sakharov said back in 1968 that "the convergence of socialist and capitalist systems accompanied by democratization, demilitarization, and social and scientific-technical progress is the only alternative to humanity's demise" ("Pondering on the Progress ," Andrey Sakharov, 1968). The once popular "theory of convergence" argued that the capitalist and socialist systems would ultimately form a hybrid that would take the best features of each. Today, as globalization processes are gaining momentum, antiglobalists are seeking to have restraints imposed on private businesses to make them more acceptable for the broad masses of people in different countries. It is certainly true that economic globalization is not developing in the best possible way, as it results in an increasing number of the poor and suffering. The obvious need is to achieve (as the most prosperous countries managed to do at times in the past) a compromise between the interests of the rich and the poor, between the proprietors and those they employ to work at their factories. Prospects The world over the next several decades will be determined first of all by the situation in North America, Western Europe, Japan, and China. It is probable that there will be certain influence from Latin America and, hopefully, Russia. In general, they situation in the world may worsen due to a shortage of fuel and depletion of other mineral resources. On a global scale, the labor market is increasingly influenced by the availability of a many-millions-strong cheap labor force in the backward countries12. With progress in industry automation and control systems, the market of available cheap labor is rapidly widening. At the same time, the role of governments as subjects of politics and the economy is tending to diminish. The world's political map may soon comprise superfederations like the European Union, or one day the world may become just one joint community. In the fields of ideology and culture, it cannot be ruled out that the progress of globalization will result in the creation of a common religion and a common global mindset, hopefully a peaceful one. Various plans for getting globalization processes under control are currently being discussed. One is something like a Marshall Plan for the whole planet. For example, Harvard Professor Jeffrey Sachs is proposing to expand the G8 into a G16 by adding developing countries such as Brazil, India, South Korea, South Africa, Nigeria, Chile, etc. Other ideas include a G20, a G8+5, etc. There are a number of ideas as to how international aid programs should be reformed, one of which calls for using the regional economic associations (ASEAN, Mercosur, SADK) as vehicles for load disbursement. The latter plan, if implemented, would have much in common with the Marshall Plan which, proved effective and helpful for the post-World War II revival of Europe. At one point, there was a program for regular assistance to the developing countries with a budget equal to 0.7% of the developed countries' combined GDP. However, actual assistance rendered to the poor countries over the last decade did not exceed 0.2-0.35% of the combined GDP of a few donor countries, or, in dollar terms, was approximately equal to $50 billion a year. These issues have been addressed more than once by the United Nations as well as by various conferences on environment preservation and sustainable development, including in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and at the "Rio+10" conference in Johannesburg in 2002. At one time, Andrey Sakharov went as far as calling for a "special tax on the developed countries to be charged at the rate of about 20% of their net material product for a period of some 15 years." Such radical measures, if implemented, could have changed the world situation. As of the beginning of the 19th century, the developed countries/developing countries per capita income ratio was in a range between 1.5 and 2, according to different estimates, by the mid-20th century the figure climbed to 7-9, and today it is estimated at as high as 75 (!) and even larger. Some 6% of the Earth's population own 60% of the world's wealth. Two diametrically opposite opinions are often pronounced on the issue of poor countries and assistance to them. Thus, back in 1980, Willy Brandt argued that the blame for the calamities of the Third World lies with the leading countries, and called for "massive redistribution of wealth" and "measures to ensure fair sharing of profits," stressing that this was "the necessary condition for the security of the rich countries." In 2002, Margaret Thatcher expressed a different opinion: "The collective feeling of guilt, which is completely groundless, is a bad foundation for resolving actual problems. .. (what is needed) is limited assistance oriented strictly on the creation
12

Duty-free trade leads to oversaturation of developed countries with cheap imported goods and pushes their domestic producers out of business. A graphic example is how European markets were flooded with Chinese textiles and footwear. Now, China is developing its automobile exports.

Chapter 9

153

of a proper foundation for free entrepreneurship and capitalism. The Third World countries should achieve supremacy of law, ensure property rights, and create a favorable investment climate. And there is no reason to provide aid to deeply corrupt or overtly despotic governments." The experience of many countries indicates that financial and material aid alone are insufficient for ensuring successful development of backward countries; they also need organization and properly chosen methods and need to resolve their internal contradictions. Therefore, there is only one approach to resolving the problem: The developed countries should become able to help the poor ones both materially and organizationally. Leaving the backward countries to fight their problems alone is not only inhumane, but also dangerous for mankind. The crisis of 2007-2010 (?) (See also Chapter 7 "Crises in Russia) A number of the problems described above have manifested themselves most strongly in connection with the world economic crisis which began in 2007. Analyzing the nature of economic crises Yegor Gaidar wrote (February 2009): "Economic crises have occurred in the world once in every 5-10 years over at least two centuries now. However, situation in the world economy is changing all the time. Crises which occurred over the 40 years after the end of World War II had been thoroughly studied and these studies produced sufficient knowledge to exercise crisis management. But the crises of the last 15 years have been different, and not enough information has been gathered for their analysis and prognostication. It has turned out that the international financial institutions are too weak to manage crises. Economic situation changes is a regular phenomenon: Periods of slow growth and low prices for raw materials are followed by periods of rapid growth where raw material prices soar. It is only after world economy has recovered and a new growth has begun that it becomes possible to resume research and analysis of the shape of the new world financial infrastructure. The present crisis has the potential of becoming the most severe one since the times of the Great Depression13. Now the world will be different." Economic crises are one of the manifestations of the general civilizational crisis. They deprive proprietors and people of their property and savings, push the number of the needy up, cause banks and enterprises to collapse and production to decline. They cause aggravation of contradictions between social groups, sometimes between countries. Beginning with economic and financial difficulties, crises sometimes trigger political and military confrontations and even wars.
The following is a review of the Great Depression of 1929-1933 compiled from the materials published in Washington ProFile, February 6, 2009. During World War I, the Government of the United States authorized massive fund allocations from its coffers to finance weapons and military equipment purchases. As the war ended, these allocations were immediately cut down which caused a recession in the militaryindustrial complex. The crisis spread onto other branches of economy: each next year saw another 600 banks dropping out of business, difficult situation formed in the coal mining and power industry while shipyards and railroads reported steady declines in operations. The price of an average farm plummeted 30-40% during 1920-1929. Unemployment was growing too with technological progress being among its primary causes. From 1919 to 1929, labor productivity of an average American worker increased by more than 40%. Up to 200,000 people were losing their jobs every year due to mechanization and automation of industrial processes. In 1929, more than 50% of the U.S. population were living below poverty line, while the number of millionaires saw a 10-fold soar. As of 1929, 1 percent of the U.S. population were in control of 40% of the country's national wealth. During the first two months of 1929, the U.S. production output fell 20%.Stock market fell through the floor: Losses hit $16 billion in one month a truly astronomical figure in those times. In 1930, the United States adopted its first protectionistic law: Customs duties on imported goods were drastically increased. Similar protectionistic measures were taken by other countries in effort to protect domestic producers. By the end of 1930, U.S. GDP shrunk 9.4% from the 1929 figure and unemployment grew from 3.2% to 8.7%. During 1931, U.S. GDP fell 8.5% from the year 1930 figure and unemployment rose to 15.9%. GDP went on falling during 1932 and unemployment hit 23.6%.Industrial shares lost 80% of their value compared to year 1930 figures. Ten thousand banks (40% of the number back in 1929) collapsed of were taken over during the three years of the crisis. Composite investments fell from $16.2 billion in 1929 to $340 million in 1932. The volume of foreign trade shrunk by two-thirds compared its pre-crisis level. In 1933, then-President of the United States Franklin Delano Roosevelt announced a program called New Deal which called for re-distributing wealth from the rich to the poor, imposing tougher government controls and an unprecedented increase in government spending. By that time, 35% of all money deposited in the country's banks before the crisis was either claimed back by the depositors or lost in bankruptcy. The U.S. Congress established ad hoc agencies the main task of which was to combat the crisis: They issued loans to the farmers, organized welfare activities (to give jobs to the unemployed) and insured bank deposits. The U.S. dollar was unpegged from gold. These measures helped achieved a noticeable reduction in the tempo of economic decline: In 1933, GDP fell 2.1% and unemployment recorded 24.9%. In 1934, the U.S. Congress established more government structures tasked with watching exchange trade to prevent any fraud, resolving labor disputes and promoting infrastructure and utility development. In 1934, for the first time since 1929, the U.S. GDP recorded an increase: It gained 7.7%, while the unemployment rate decreased to 21.7%. In 1935, the United States had first established a social security system and a stricter government control over banks. In 1935, the U.S. GDP rose 8.1% while unemployment declined further to 20.1%. Therefore, it was not until Roosevelt administration launched its program of sharp increase of government spending that the country began to emerge out of the crisis. Germany, for its part, emerged from its crisis in 1936 thanks to massive government spending on reequipment of the army. In 1939, a large-scale program of military re-equipment was launched in the United States. Thanks to the governmentsponsored arms contracts, the country scored a record-setting industrial growth of 50%. GDP increased by 7.9% and unemployment fell to 17.2%. The Great Depression was overcome, but the world was entering a new crisis World War II.
13

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

154

In the modern world, where strong economic ties have been established between the countries, crises tend to engulf many countries; the current financial crisis has affected most of the world. Nonuniformity of economic development manifests itself in goods overproduction (situation where production is much higher than effective demand), decrease in the number of jobs and hence massive staff reductions. Another factors that cause layoffs include technological modernizations, labor productivity increases and industry shutdowns for various reasons. Among measures taken to combat crises are personnel re-training and skill conversion, fund allocations for new developments, but realization of such programs usually takes time and is difficult to plan beforehand. Mortgage crisis occurs as a result of a massive default on the part of housing and consumer loan-takers which usually causes a turmoil in the banking sector14. Though being a powerful demand stimulation tool, consumer loans, if issued without moderation, lead to a situation where too many people start living beyond their means and ultimately cause the entire consumer market to collapse. As people start losing jobs, the rate of unemployment goes up and effective demand goes down. In addition to overindulgence in loan-taking, excessive demand is often the result of aggressive advertisement and lack of discretion among the population people are often too certain about their income stability. Decline in goods production causes decline in the consumption of metals and other materials and components, hence their manufacturers have to go to cuts too. The whole production-consumption chain gets pushed out of balance in a domino effect. Another problem are loopholes in the rules and regulations governing activities on financial markets which make it possible for unscrupulous dealers to commit fraudulent activities, such as financial pyramids, misreporting, setting unfair prices, etc. These activities too bring instability to the banking and industry sectors and then again domino effect is at work here. The rule-makers and law enforcement agencies do not always keep pace with the financial market's innovations, and watchdog structures do not always discover violations before it is too late. Such events as the 9/11 disaster15 or massive collapse of major companies or banks can trigger a crisis too. A global crisis disrupts life in many countries. In response, governments take action to break the vicious circle, such as interest rate reduction, providing government funds for large-scale projects, like construction of roads and other important infrastructures with the aim to restore effective demand on the consumer market. Sometimes, when situation becomes particularly dangerous, orders are issued to suspend stock market trade, and mass media are employed to soothe the masses. Economic crises of the past catalyzed certain reforms in the systems of government management. Perhaps this crisis will not be an exception in this sense too. Rather often economic crises cause changes in the people's mindset and ways of life. Such changes might be transient and short lived, but sometimes they might be profound and durable. In times of crisis, government structures often become more competitive on the labor market because unlike commercial structures they have more stable access to funds. Strongly influencing economic situation in the modern world is the domination of the U.S. economy. As a result of such domination, U.S. currency, the dollar, has de facto become an international currency and is used as means of payment in most international transactions; sometimes, the dollar is used for state reserve creation. Therefore, the United States could live off printing dollars and exchanging them for real goods16. In addition to being used for international settlements, the dollar is used as means of pricing on the domestic market in many countries17. Dollar emission is regulated by the U.S. government which is guided first of all by the national interests. Those crises which take their origin in the United States usually acquire global character. "A slightest move or even a declaration of intent by U.S. authorities creates a tidal wave all over the world, save such completely isolated countries as North Korea. The world has not yet become multipolar or nonpolar. The world still remains to be monopolar or America-centered," quoted from the press. As regards the dollar's domination, opinions are expressed increasingly often nowadays that the modern-day globalized economy needs a neutral world currency which emission is regulated by an international financial center with broader powers compared to the IMF or World Bank. Such currency could have supernational and inter-state status without any advantages being enjoyed by any particular country. The proposed ways of developing globalization are akin to the ideas about a new architecture of the world economy, including a radical reform of the UN and other transformations that are ripening in the modern world (see chapters Nos. 11, 18). Our response to the global crisis should be a global restructuring. Thus, governments should be given more powers in the field of economic regulation, cooperation between countries should be given a boost with more efforts made for economic regulation on the macro level, limits should be imposed on the consumption
14 The original cause of the present crisis was massive default on the part of housing mortgage loan-takers in the United States (beginning in 2006). 15 9/11 disaster lead to a lengthy fall in the volume of passenger transportation by air, reduction in aviation fuel consumption and recession in the related businesses. Although the consequences did not go as far as a global crisis, quite a few companies did suffer serious problems. 16 Dollar bills presently in circulation worldwide total to as much about $1 trillion. With the GDP of $13.5 trillion, the United States has a state debt of over $11 trillion. 17 The attempt made by the Russian government several years ago to ban the dollar for internal settlements has been futile.

Chapter 9

155

by the "golden billion" and certain strata of the population, assistance should be rendered to backward countries to help them develop their economies and improve quality of life, and joint action should be taken to preserve the environment and natural resources. Of course, there are many other measures that need to be taken in addition to these. It is obvious that such increased government regulation and macro level regulation of each individual economy and the world economy as a whole contradicts the principle of free market, and one might conclude that it could be detrimental to economic growth or quality of life. Indeed, the determination of an optimal balance between centralized management and economic freedom, the degree of such freedom, is one of the most difficult problems faced by a civilization in its evolution. Government regulation in the field of economy is likely to be strengthened in the near future. In other words, there will be a turn "to the left" in the economic policy. Such alternate "left and right" turns are characteristic of the recent history. The global economic crisis might cause aggravation of the international relations and might even trigger military conflicts (see Chapter 17: Predictions for the Near Future. U.S. National Intelligence Council Options). Work is under way to develop (and agree upon) measures to overcome the crisis. Proposals to that effect are discussed at the regularly called top level meetings of the leading countries of the world. At the G20 London summit of April 2009 a $1 trillion global economy rescue fund was unveiled, including $250 billion to support world trade and $750 million to finance the IMF-sponsored stabilization program. Summit Chairman Gordon Brown said: "Today we have reached a new consensus that we take global action together to deal with the problems we face, that we will do what is necessary to restore growth and jobs, that we will take essential action to rebuild confidence and trust in our financial system and to prevent a crisis such as this ever happening again." Political scientist Liliya Shevtsova made the following comment: "The global financial crisis has prompted thoughts not only about developing a new financial architecture but also about establishing a new world order and management system. It cannot be ruled out that a new mechanism of world leadership be created where America shares responsibility with other major players in the field. The question is one of establishing a formal or informal triad comprising the United States, the European Union and China The crisis is giving us a chance to achieve a breakthrough. Thus, the strategy announced by Barack Obama for his country calls for huge investments in education, health, environment and measures to promote the formation of a healthy and developed society."

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

156

Chapter 10

The European Union

After the many wars that took place in Europe for centuries, most of the countries of that continent managed to overcome the animosity of the past, changing the nature of their relationships and establishing a single multinational state, the European Union. This is an unprecedented example of putting an end to conflicts and ceasing to spend great amounts of money on preparations for them. The new confederation has a great potential for turning its economy into the most dynamic in the world, setting an example for other regions and ensuring the peaceful transformation of the entire planet. here have been several attempts in history to unite Europe . As far back as the 16th century, the Habsburg Monarchy declared that "AEIOU," or "Austria est imperare orbi universo" (It is Austria's destiny to rule the world). Another attempt to unite Europe took place in the 19th century, when Napoleon Bonaparte sought to make Europe into "a common family" so that no-one would need to leave home when traveling in it. He also planned to establish a common European currency. The American economic historian Rondo Cameron wrote that "The dream of united Europe is as old as Europe itself. The borders of Charlemagne's Holy Roman Empire were very close to the original Common Market's borders. Napoleon Bonaparte's empire (all its satellites included) spread onto almost all of continental Europe. The Concert of Europe that was formed after the Congress of 1815 was an attempt at policy coordination on the top level of authority." According to plans cherished by Adolf Hitler, a group of "small nations" would vanish for the sake of a united Europe. The German dream of a Third Reich was based on their desire to dominate Europe, and their desire to annex European countries led to two devastating wars in the 20th century. In a speech in 1946, Winston Churchill introduced the term "United States of Europe" and proposed that a "Council of Europe" be established. Churchill's idea was realized in 1949, and today the Council of Europe embraces 47 countries (including Russia) with a combined population of approximately 750 million people. As European nations learned by the mistakes of the past, the idea of peaceful unification of Europe gained momentum. The first tangible move was made in 1951, when France and West Germany established the European Coal and Steel Community, which was immediately joined by Italy, Belgium, Holland, and Luxembourg1. The Community was formed around purely economic agreements aimed at removing barriers to the coal and steel trade. Simultaneously, a number of political issues were resolved, such as the lifting of the postwar international control over the Ruhr Area; this region had been a bone of contention and the cause of numerous conflicts between France and Germany that flared up repeatedly over many centuries. The advocates of the Community called for the abolition of isolating sovereignties, and invited other countries to join the club. For West Germany, this managed to resolve one of its most pressing and most important problems removal of the occupation and winning equal rights with other European countries. One of the most fervent supporters of European unification, then-Chancellor of Germany Konrad Adenauer, believed that only a united Europe, with support from the United States, would be able to achieve rapid economic growth and resist the onslaught of communist ideology. (However, Charles de Gaulle had earlier voiced the idea of a Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals). The European Economic Community, or Common Market, was established in 1957. The EEC introduced a common agricultural policy and unified prices, abolished customs duties, and introduced a unified customs tariff, among other measures. The next radical step on the way toward European unification was taken in 1967, when the European Community was established with the idea of adding close political cooperation to the existing economic ties. This led to the formation of various supranational structures, such as the Council of Europe, European Parliament, European Investment Bank, European Court, etc. In 1973, the six original member-countries of the European Community were joined by Denmark, Ireland, and Great Britain, and Greece, Iceland, and Portugal followed suite in 1982-1983. The year of 1979 was marked by elections in the European Parliament and the introduction of a common European Currency Unit, or ECU. The next landmark was the Schengen Agreement, which allowed for the abolition of systematic border controls between the participating countries. The agreement was signed in 1985 and established the steps to be taken to create the Schengen area. Finally, the political union was consolidated by the Maastricht Treaty of 1992: The Euro1 Moves aimed at achieving a better economic coordination in Eastern Europe were made earlier. Here it is appropriate to recall COMECON which was established in 1949 and included Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Czechoslovakia and was later joined by the German Democratic Republic. Later on, COMECON was used for coordinating economic processes in other parts of the world through the integration of other countries of socialist orientation. COMECON gave a strong impetus to integration processes in other countries of Europe (Andrei Strygin, World Economy, (a textbook for polytechnic universities), 2008).

Chapter 10

157

pean Community was transformed into the European Union. Membership in the European Union could be given to any European country, provided that it upholds the "principles of freedom, democracy, rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms" (the Treaty on the European Union). The main conditions for a country to be admitted to EU membership having a European location and a democratic regime, financial stability, and secure external borders.

Schematic map of the European Union

Membership history of the European Union

Year of Entry 1957 1973 1981 1986 1995 2004 Countries Belgium, Germany*, Italy, Luxembourg, Holland, France Great Britain, Denmark, Ireland Greece Spain, Portugal Austria, Finland, Sweden Hungary, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Estonia Total number of EU members 6 9 10 12 15 25 27

2007 Bulgaria, Romania * German Democratic Republic (East Germany) joined EU in 1989.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

158

EU security is ensured by NATO, which has existed since 1949 and also includes the United States and Canada. The Helsinki Accords of 1975 and the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) are also supposed to consolidate peace and security in Europe. In addition to security issues, OSCE is a human rights watchdog and a global problem solver strategist. An important landmark in the contemporary history of Europe was the unification of the two Germanys in 1989 after more than 40 years of separation. West Germany paid most of the cost of modernizing its eastern part. After adding Austria, Finland, and Sweden in 1995, the European Union numbered 15 member countries. The next milestone was in 2002, when 12 EU member countries (all but Great Britain, Sweden, and Denmark) switched to a common currency, the Euro. On May 1, 2004, the EU further expanded, accepting the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Cyprus, and Malta2. Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU in 2007, and it now comprises 27 countries with a combined population of about half a billion people. For some years, the EU new members will be receiving aid and assistance for structural modernization of their formerly socialist economies. (It must be noted that the experience of East Germany indicates that modernization of former socialist economies is a lengthy and painful process even with sizable assistance). Difficulties of Unification Almost all EU member countries were through wars and cataclysms in the 20th century. Spain and Portugal had dictatorial regimes in the relatively recent past. During the 20th century, the countries of Eastern Europe suffered from two dictatorships, and many were crossed by tanks and placed under military rule. It is hardly surprising that many in the EU candidate states feared that EU membership would cause their country to lose sovereignty: in the polls held on the issue of EU entry, nearly half of the population voted "against" in several candidate countries. Large rallies took place there with slogans like "Down with Brussels!" and "Yesterday it was Moscow, today it is Brussels. We won't give our land to foreigners!" Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Montenegro are next in the queue for EU membership; Turkey3, Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia are next in line. Recently, the EU has been expanding its sphere of interests acting through the program "Strategic Partnership with the Mediterranean and the Middle East."4 As the Russian politician Grigory Yavlinsky puts it, "We need to put the task of establishing a new architectonics for the enlarged united Europe and devise a mechanism for European civilization to propagate into Eurasia. This is vitally important for the sake of consolidating the basics and fundamentals and the fulfillment of the European Union's historical mission," quoted from Grigory Yavlinsky, 2006. There is a noticeable difference in quality of life within the EU: per capita GDP in Germany, France, Great Britain, and Sweden is considerably higher than in Greece and Portugal, not to mention Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia, and other recently admitted countries of Eastern Europe. Fifteen percent of the EU population (55 million people) were classified as "poor" as of 2003. The entry of more countries in 2004 pushed the percentage of the poor in EU further up, and the issue became one of the largest concerns of united Europe. Serious problems have arisen in connection with the present economic crises, including an argument on the amount of financial assistance to be provided to the weaker countries. Despite some analysts alleging the possibility of EU disintegration as a result of being torn apart by its internal contradictions, such possibility is rather unlikely given the colossal advantages these countries have obtained from the unification5. The present situation, in which so many countries are actively seeking EU membership, is explained by their desire to overcome backwardness and catch up with the developed countries. Financial assistance, personnel exchanges, and adoption of leading technologies and best practices will help bridge the gap. Moreover, in seeking EU membership countries are hoping to acquire strategic protection from external military threats. If admitted into the EU, they will be able to cut their military spending (with no need to defend internal borders) and thus ensure a more dynamic development. The new "conglomerate" has ambitions to make its economy the most dynamic one in the world. In its rivalry with the United States, the European Union aspires to become the best competitive and dynamic region in the world and leave the United States behind. One of the problems facing the European Union is ensuring a stable energy supply. It is well known that there are problems associated with natural gas transit from Russia via Ukraine.
In terms of economic might these ten countries, all combined, were only roughly equivalent to Holland alone. Turkey had long had authoritarian rule, and today its political situation is characterized by a struggle between liberal and conservative wings. There are mixed opinions in the EU with regard to admitting Turkey. 4 To a large extent with former colonies. 5 There is no document adopted to establish a mechanism for secession from EU.
2 3

Chapter 10

159

Switzerland and Norway are firmly determined to stay outside the EU. These two countries, which are at the top of the world's quality of life ranking6, do not want to take a risk and prefer to limit themselves to just cooperating with the European Union. Thus far, the absence of a formal political association with the EU has not clouded their existence. Nevertheless, a nationwide poll held in Switzerland in 2005 resolved on the country's gradual entry into the Schengen zone. In Great Britain as well, many are critical of the idea of entering the European Union. As Margaret Thatcher put it, "Europe is, in effect, reminiscent of an empire that is turned upside down... Europe, in essence, is a synonym of bureaucracy. It is built on the idea of suppressing or substituting national identity Actions taken by the federative Europe are often aimed at establishing a kind of a European nation." This latter, however, does not sound so bad. "Brussels bureaucracy" is a widely used term, and, indeed, it is not an easy task to manage almost half a billion million people with different histories and mindsets. The question, however, is to what extent it will be possible to make such management efficient. The growing power and role of Germany are also arousing some concern. Disagreements have appeared, both commercial and political, between the EU and the United States, and they are deepening as the EU demonstrates increasing independence. Steps Toward Unity What is taking place in the united Europe is the formation of a more homogeneous market accompanied by rapprochement and integration of national laws, policies, and practices. EU citizens can today freely travel around the union and live, work, and do business wherever they wish within the EU area. Integration of energy systems and transportation and communication networks is under way. The countries delegate part of their sovereign powers to supranational structures, including issues of environmental protection, industrial strategy development, scientific research planning, development and adoption of common standards in health care and education, and execution of trade and other agreements with foreign countries. Euroatom, Interpol, and other Pan-European organizations exist. The EU budget is 1.2% of the combined budget of the EU member countries, and a considerable portion of it is spent on subsidizing agriculture and the less-developed union members. The EU composite budget for the next 7 years (2007-2013) was planned to be 862 billion euros (over $1 trillion). Budget policies, including the requirement to keep the budget deficit under 3%, remain within the competence of individual governments, while the Union's supranational structures reserve the right to exercise monitoring of and impose sanctions on violators. As regards NATO, here it is appropriate to recall that it was originally created to counteract the Soviet Union. Now, in conformity with the present geopolitical situation, NATO is being redirected. Plans call for an increasing role for NATO outside of its traditional European arena, performing special missions ranging from humanitarian to violent. Thus, NATO has assumed command of the international military contingent in Afghanistan. A rapid reaction force has been established. The possibility has raised that NATO will have a special cooperation status with Ukraine, Georgia and a number of other countries. The aggregate military spending of the NATO member countries totals around $150 billion a year. One of the most important issues facing the EU is maintaining a proper balance between the national and supranational. The European Union is a superstate, the functioning of which is hampered by differences in quality of life, culture, traditions, language, history, etc. between its constituent parts. National specificities and peculiarities must not be suppressed or ignored, and may even be helpful for broadening the choice of potential development paths and models. Despite the existence of strong unification trends, the need for diversity is always stressed. The EU principles include cultural diversity, tolerance, and respect for different cultures and religions, which This probably why the new EU Constitution contains no mention of the JudeoChristian roots of European civilization. At the same time, some national customs, such as those practiced by the Muslim diaspora, will not be permitted in Europe if they are in striking contrast with the mainstream norms of behavior. The creation of a common mentality that will be acceptable for all and a reconciliation of cultures represents the main problem of the century, including for the EU, especially as the proportion of non-European peoples is forecast to increase there. Plans call for harmonization of laws and procedures in the field of television broadcasting throughout the EU; and many national restrictions are planned to be abolished. A "Television without Frontiers" directive has been adopted in effort to regulate media activities and help create a common market for commercial television broadcasting.
In parallel with EU enlargement, it is planned to reform its power structures. However, serious problems have arisen with ratification of the new EU Constitution. The Constitution has not been ratified yet due to the position of France and Holland, where people voted against it at the polls. Together with financial problems, the failure to ratify the new Constitution hampered further integration within the EU. Arousing disaffection are problems caused by the admittance of several relatively poor Eastern European countries into the EU, massive migration of workers from the East, growing influence of the supranational bureaucratic structures, etc. Important landmark in the history of the EU was the Lisbon Conference of 2007 which set out basic principles for the union for the next 15-20 years, the Treaty of Lisbon. Importantly,
6

Norway has steadily been at the top the world's quality of life rankings in the last 5 years.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

160

the Treaty of Lisbon set out a simpler decision-making procedure and established that "the European Council shall consist of the Heads of State or Government of the Member States, together with its President and the President of the Commission. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy shall take part in its work. The European Council shall elect its President, by a qualified majority, for a term of two and a half years, renewable once." The main objectives of the EU policy have been formulated as eliminating unemployment, achieving high standards of social security, social justice and environmental protection, combating discrimination, protection of the rights of children and other important tasks. The Council of Europe which was mentioned above and embraces almost all European countries, has a certain influence on European life. The governing body of the Council of Europe is the Cabinet of Ministers, where each member state is represented by its minister of foreign affairs or a permanent representative in the role of ambassador. The Cabinet makes decisions on the main issues of policy and activities of the Council of Europe. Decisions are issued in the form of recommendations to the member states or conventions and treaties that, once ratified by a country, become legally binding for it. Sessions of the Parliamentary Assembly, which gather some 600 deputies in Strasbourg four times a year, discuss social issues and international policy. The Council of Europe sees its goals as combating terrorism and crime and developing the Pan-European legal space. Member states take turns presiding over the Council of Europe. Not the least important issue with the European Union is the choice of language for communication. As things stand today, 30% of those who people in Europe can speak a second language in addition to their native one. Most frequently, this second language is English, French, or German. It is becoming too difficult to hold conferences and issue documents in the languages of all member states, especially given that the number of languages within the EU has increased to 23 (Languages of the EU). More than a thousand translators have been brought to bear. Each country is seeking to preserve its language (as well as its culture), and many are quite active in doing so. France, for example, passed a law forbidding the use of Americanisms, and Poland introduced an extra tax on companies using foreign words in their names. This notwithstanding, English words are penetrating into many languages, and it appears unlikely that in the situation of convergence and rapprochement of countries and development of worldwide means of communication, it will be possible to prevent the birth of a universal language. As we know from history, languages have always been in the process of transformation and adaptation to realities. The English language is de facto becoming the international language, though sometimes it is distorted or modified. Quite often, it is used not only at international events but also at national conferences and meetings (such took place many times even in the Soviet Union). The Internet, with a number of users about 1.5 billion, also works to accelerate the process of mankind's shifting to a lingua franca. The fate of other languages is difficult to predict at this point. Alternatively, it may happen that machine translation will become effective enough to eliminate all language barriers.

The EU and Russia Russia and the EU have strong economic ties and common political interests. A large proportion of EU oil and gas imports come from Russia, and approximately 70% of foreign investments in the Russian economy come from the EU. The EU share in Russia's foreign trade turnover is about 50%. In 2004, Russia and the EU acquired a lengthy common border. Plans of establishing a common European economic zone, Russia's entry into the North Atlantic Alliance, and establishing a visa-free or a simplified visa policy are being discussed. Most-favored-nation status for Russia is also among the possible options, which will help reduce customs duties on Russian goods. There is a Russia-NATO Council, and joint actions are taken to curb terrorism and drug trafficking. Russia is actively cooperating with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Among the topics discussed between Russia and the OSCE are political and military issues; plans for creating common zones of freedom and cooperation in the fields of science, education, law-enforcement, and security; harmonization of legislation; and ways to regulate conflicts and ensure observance of human rights. However, according to former Defense Minister of the Russian Federation Sergey Ivanov, "cooperation between Russia and the European Union in the field of defense and security remains in an embryonic state and is much weaker than our relations with individual NATO member states, as well as with China and India We have failed to achieve a higher level of coordination in combating terrorism, although we have a dangerous common enemy capable of exploding the entire world's safety system (Izvestia, January 2005). Time and again, the united Europe reproaches Russia for a poor situation with respect to freedom of press, violation of human rights in the Caucasus, etc. At any given moment of time, relations between Russia and the EU are determined by the balance of mutual interest and mutual disaffection. *** The formation of the European Union is an unprecedented example of peaceful unification of a large number of countries. It served to dramatically improve security and reduce military spending. The EU member countries have an advantage in economic development and, therefore, have more opportunities for providing their citi-

Chapter 10

161

zens with a higher quality of life. Cooperating with other centers of power around the world, the European Union has a chance to become a powerful conciliatory factor for the planet. In addition, the example set by the European Union cannot be ignored by other countries and regions and is destined to trigger radical changes in the world arrangement (see Chapter 18 "V Geopolitics")7.

Dr. Heinrich Bonnenberg formulates the main principles of European identity as follows: Division of powers, equal weight of freedom and responsibility, choice of a third path lying between capitalism and communism, social justice, acknowledgment of the need for progress, separation of the Church from the state, representative democracy, equal rights for women, equal rights for the minorities, freedom of press, press as the fourth estate, freedom of entrepreneurship and formation of associations, struggle against corruption, transparency, overcoming of nationalism, overcoming of anti-Semitism, rejection of missionary outreach and colonialism, coexistence of Christianity, Islam and Judaism, respect of the Ten Commandments which are common for all religions.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

162

Chapter 11

World Government and the Global Policeman Problems of interaction and coexistence used to be solved through the establishment of empires, or conquest and unification under a dictator. The formation and collapse of the empires, and the rise and fall of their rulers were the landmarks of the past millennia. France and Germany were the last European countries to try and conquer their neighbors and unite them into empires. A mechanism of peaceful regulation of relations between sovereign states was thought to be found in the wake of World War I, when the League of Nations was founded. Even it, however, failed to solve the problem and stop new armed clashes that eventually deteriorated into another World War. Another attempt was made in 1945 when the United Nations was set up. The UN followed in the steps of its predecessor and failed to prevent the Cold War. This conflict lasted for more than four decades, embraced a large part of the world and ended only when one of the antagonists bowed out. Today, the international community lacks a global organization that will avert wars and resolve international crises without bloodshed.
ystems of community governance (from primitive tribes to modern states) are designed and expected to serve several purposes. They should help resolve internal conflicts and provide external security, retain and (even better) expand the population and territory, and increase available resources. In other words, a system is expected to maintain a stable level of prosperity and, whenever necessary, facilitate expansion. There exists a broad spectrum of means of governance from primitive systems to totalitarian regimes and liberal systems which appeared not very long ago. The best progress and success throughout the recent history have been displayed by countries in which personal leadership (the president, prime minister, or sometimes even the figurehead of monarch) is combined with advanced democracy the United States, England, Sweden, and others. In dire straits, however, like wars and other catastrophes, power is usually usurped by a narrow circle of decisionmakers. This comes as no surprise, as time is usually short in such situations, while debates are notoriously timeconsuming1. Hence we have martial law, the iron legislation of a nation at war, and other mechanisms2. The establishment of proper order and enduring peace throughout the planet has been set as a goal before by various religions and ideologies. This is the goal of Christianity, Islam, Buddhism and other religions and similar slogans were put forth by totalitarian regimes such as the Bolsheviks and fascists. The methods and results of all these attempts are very well known. International Organizations in the Post-World War I and Post World War II Periods

The development of human civilization and the growing interaction between different countries, with their overlapping economic and political interests, eventually combined to necessitate international supragovernmental bodies capable of resolving conflicts and preventing wars between states. Ideas and projects for this have been discussed since the 17th century3, but it was World War I that provided the impetus for their realization in practice. With the war over, some empires collapsed, several new states were formed, and a spirited attempt was made to avoid bloodshed in the future. The governments of the winners, first and foremost Great Britain and France, were canny enough to want to cement their achievements and secure peace and their own clout with future turns of events. The League of Nations was founded to "facilitate cooperation" in
1 In ancient Rome before the birth of Christ, the Consuls ceded their powers in times of crisis to a provisional dictator for no longer than six months. An exception was made for Julius Caesar, who became dictator for life (dictator perpetuus), and Rome thus became an empire. 2 It cannot be ruled out that we all will eventually come (or are already coming) to grasp the necessity of stricter regimes worldwide for the sake of survival. Unless the danger of self-destruction cannot be negated by democratic means, a less liberal regime may actually turn out to be the last option. Of course, this may mean the danger of totalitarianism, which is not a prospect to be contemplated lightly either. 3 The Treaty of Westphalia (1648) proclaimed the independence and territorial integrity of the European countries and noninterference into each other's internal affairs.

Chapter 11

163

January 1920. The League established an Assembly, Council, Secretariat, and commissions and organizations in charge of dealing with various problems. Of the 65 large states that existed in the world in 1920, practically all were in the League at one time or other. The principal structures of the League of Nations were quartered in Geneva. US President Woodrow Wilson had come up with the idea of the League of Nations in the first place to promote liberal values, responsibility for the world, and collective decision-making. The United States itself, however, did not join the new organization. Germany quit the League of Nations in 1933, as did Italy in 1937. The Soviet Union was admitted in 1934, but its membership was annulled in the wake of the attack on Finland in 1939. The League of Nations did resolve some international disputes and even helped with the organization of state management in the so-called "mandate territories" (or former colonies). Unfortunately, the world order established when the smoke of World War I cleared away did not last. When the economic crisis of the late 1920s and early 1930s broke out, and afterward, the League of Nations was compelled to operate under extremely unfavorable conditions. The organization failed in its principal function of preventing war. The League of Nations was unable to prevent conflicts in China, Abyssinia (Ethiopia), Spain, and other countries, conflicts that paved the way for World War II. The leading world powers launched the policy of appeasement with regard to Germany4, but neither did this policy prevent German occupation of some European countries, conquest of Manchuria by Japan, or aggressive actions of the Soviet Union in East Europe (these latter resulting in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and annexation of some territories). To all practical purposes, the League of Nations ceased in 1940. Nominally, it was disbanded at the moment of establishment of the UN in 1956. When World War II broke out and Nazi Germany set up the Axis (Berlin-Rome-Tokyo), the Soviet Union, United States, and England united in the face of the common enemy. Another attitude did, however, exist in the West at the time: "Let the fascists and communists kill each other; it will only benefit America" (Joseph P. Kennedy, US Ambassador to Great Britain in 1937-1940 and the father of later US President John F. Kennedy)5. When the danger proved too great, the necessity of combining efforts to deal with it could no longer be denied (the United States joined the coalition in late 1941, right after Pearl Harbor). Cooperation and mutual assistance, both military and in material, were major factors in the eventual victory. Decisions on postwar arrangements in Europe and cooperation in other regions of the world were made closer to the end of World War II. International political cooperation got its second wind. The United Nations Organization was established, its Charter signed by 50 countries. A framework of 192 states today, the UN has its headquarters in New York and offices throughout the world (the main ones being in Geneva and Vienna). Structurally, the UN includes the General Assembly, Security Council, Economic and Social Council, Trusteeship Council, International Court of Justice, and Secretariat. Many structures were formed to regulate various aspects of international life the International Monetary Fund; World Confederation of Labor; International Atomic Energy Agency; United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization; International Olympic Committee; and others. Just like they had done in the wake of World War I, the winners had to make decisions on new borders and spheres of influence. This time, the future of the world was to be decided by the Soviet Union, United States, and Great Britain with France joining them later on. Along with these four world powers, China became the fifth permanent member of the UN Security Council. Under the UN Charter: "The purposes of the United Nations are to maintain peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace. All Members shall give the United Nations every assistance in any action it takes in accordance with the present Charter, and shall refrain from giving assistance to any state against which the United Nations is taking preventive or enforcement action." The Security Council has primary responsibility, under the Charter, for the maintenance of international peace and security. It is composed of five permanent members and ten nonpermanent members elected by the General Assembly for two-year terms. Debates are under way over granting Germany, Japan, India, and Brazil permanent membership status. Two African countries, Egypt and Nigeria, have also been suggested for permanent membership, as well as some other countries. "The Security Council shall determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace" (Article 39, Chapter VII, UN Charter). "The Security Council may all upon the parties concerned to comply with such provisional measures as it deems necessary or desirable" (Article 40, Chapter VII, UN Charter). "Should the Se4 Winston Churchill said about the agreement with Germany in 1938 known as the Munich Accords that "England has been offered a choice between war and shame. She has chosen shame and will get war." 5 Future US President Harry Truman's famous statement made at that time was that "If we see the Germans getting the upper hand, we will help the Russians. If we see the Russians winning, we should help the Germans. Let them kill each other, the more the better."

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

164

curity Council consider that measures provided for in Article 41 would be inadequate or have proved to be inadequate, it may take such action by air, sea, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security" (Article 42, Chapter VII, UN Charter). The UN armed forces established under the UN Charter on the decision of the UN Security Council are deployed under the latter's auspices. The powers of the UN allow for intervention in crises and emergencies, prevention or suspension of armed conflicts, ethnic conflict resolution, evacuation of refugees, assistance in economic development of backward countries, struggle with famine and sickness, and so on. Provisions are made for both diplomatic efforts and deployment of strength for the purposes of intervention in domestic and international conflicts, control over separation and disarmament of warring parties, establishment of missions of military observers, and performance of police functions in postconflict periods. More than a million military and civilian UN personnel already participated in such operations. On occasion, conflicts are averted without bloodshed just by positioning "Blue Helmets" between the antagonists (that is, peacekeeping contingents whose deployment is authorized by the UN Security Council). The necessity of an armed contingent ever ready for deployment is discussed, along with the mechanisms of its instant use. More than 2,000 UN officials, citizens of various countries, have perished in the line of since after 1948. The Nobel Prize that UN peacekeepers were awarded in 1988 became a token of recognition of the importance of their mission. The IAEA and its director general, Mohamed El Baradei, received the Nobel Prize in 2005. At the turn of the century, the UN set a series of tasks for its members: by 2015, they are supposed to cut the number of people suffering from hunger and lacking permanent access to clean drinking water by half, stop HIV/AIDS and malaria proliferation, eliminate inequality between sexes at all levels of education, etc. UN members are committed to finding solutions to these problems. Unfortunately, the UN and its Security Council are not always capable of performing one of their principal functions that of world policeman in charge of law and order in international affairs. US operations in Vietnam, Grenada, and Panama, bombing of Yugoslavia, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were run without UN authorization, as were the Soviet operations in Afghanistan, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia. Great Britain and France fought Egypt. What is to be done to stop the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea? And who will make sure of it, the UN or the United States? Only some conflicts have been stopped or prevented. The UN is often too late. Indecision on the part of the UN Security Council delayed deployment of peacekeepers in Rwanda, this resulting in genocide and colossal amounts of death. In some cases the UN is too hasty to withdraw its troops and specialists, i.e., before adequate governmental structures have been established. UN members are often notoriously reluctant to finance peacekeeping operations and commit their troops. The idea of a single world power fair, legitimate, and acting in accordance with rules accepted by all, a power that maintains law and order in the world has not been fully realized. Whenever rough decisions are needed and needed fast, the UN often proves helpless. As counterweights to it (or as a substitute), regional structures are established for use in peacekeeping operations: NATO Rapid Response Forces6, or provisional coalitions like the recent anti-Iraqi one comprising troops of the regular armies of the United States, Great Britain, and other countries. In the mid 2009, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan established a joint Rapid Reaction Force. "The strongest is the ruler" remains by and large a universal law. The Situation at the Turn of the 21st Century Whenever the UN and its Security Council have failed to perform their functions (which has happened several times), this has resulted in encroachments on the rights of peoples, wars, occupation, raging totalitarian regimes, and casualties running into the millions. Fortunately, the numerous local conflicts in the second half of the 20th century never escalated into an all-out war on a global scale. The Soviet-American confrontation was prevented from taking this disastrous turn by the threat of mutual annihilation, and not by peacemaking efforts on the part of the UN. Things never deteriorated beyond the Cold War (see Chapter 6). The end of the Cold War marked a break in global confrontation (19892001). The 9/11 disaster marked the beginning of a new global confrontation, this time between the extremist Islamic movements and the West. Here it is appropriate to ask: Is the struggle against the Wahhabis is Russia a manifestation of this global conflict? After the 9/11 disaster Russia positioned herself on the West's side and rendered tangible assistance for the introduction of Western troops in Afghanistan. However, it has not been very long before contradictions between those who were enemies in the Cold War emerged on the foreground again. Suffice it to recall the events in Kosovo, the bombing of Belgrade, the
6

Sometimes, ideas are expressed that NATO should embrace Russia, Japan, Australia and South Korea. Thus, in April 2008, former president of Poland Aleksander Kwaniewski said: "Sooner of later Russia will understand that her place is in Europe."

Chapter 11

165

The following are selected excerpts from the documents of the 62nd and 63rd sessions of the UN General Assembly (2007 statement of the Russian Federation's representative to the UN; 2008 statements of the Russian Federation's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov). "Dangerous tendencies are the aggravation of the numerous regional conflicts, their transformation into hotbeds of terrorism, crime and drug dealing, strengthening of nationalistic movements, exacerbation of separatist sentiments and religious extremism, growth of inter-civilizational tension. The flywheel of arms race has not been stopped and it is rising to a new technological level threatening with the appearance of a whole arsenal of destabilizing weapons plus deployment of a striking force in space. "Of primary importance is consolidation of the central role of the UN and its Security Council as a universal mechanism for peace and security in the world. The UN Security Council needs to be reformed. Its efficiency should be increased by way of its limited expansion, focusing efforts on strengthening multilateral approaches to arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction on the basis of strict compliance with and expansion of existing treaties and development of new international treaties. The diversity of challenges faced by mankind dictates the need for every possible reinforcement of the UN. It is commonsense that mankind should finally develop a joint action program in the 21st century. "It is necessary to establish constructive relations with representatives of all religious denominations for the sake of finding mutual solutions to the global problems facing the modern world. Special attention should to be devoted to building up cooperation ties with the Organization of the Islamic Conference and with the Islamic countries on the bilateral terms. "Russia is a strong advocate of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East, supports the continuation of the negotiating process and looking for a compromise solution for the Kosovo problem; Russia cannot agree to a unilateral scenario of 'imposed independence.' Russia supports African countries in their peacekeeping efforts and the formation of a collective
7

unauthorized invasion of Iraq by the United States and their allies, their plans to deploy radars in Eastern Europe and the conflicting positions and actions in Georgia. "What is going on in Afghanistan is arousing more and more questions. Why aren't the international contingents taking to fight the growing drug threat which is increasingly affecting the countries of Central Asia and Europe?," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in 2008. In the meantime, military spending tends to increase, activation is seen in military exercises and statements are made about armed force re-equipment plans. (With means of mass destruction becoming available to broader and broader circles, the danger of their deployment becomes a grim possibility. As technological advances make production of means of mass destruction easier, those eager for such weapons are doubling their efforts to obtain them7). Again, like in the Cold War time, it is becoming obvious that the existing framework of international organizations and their style of work are not up to the problems at hand. They are patently incapable of dispelling the dangers the world is facing. Sixty years have elapsed since the UN was established, the world is different and will be changing more in the future. The functions the UN actually performed changed with every new era. When established, the UN was an organization of the winners of World War Two, determined to shape a new world order. While the Cold War was raging, the UN became a structure whose authority and clout the antagonists tried to harness to promote their own objectives. Today, the UN is facing wholly new tasks. It is supposed to facilitate resolution of the crisis in relations between the wealthy countries and the developing ones (these latter being 100-200 years behind the former, at least in living standards) and try and root out its cause, and to deal with dangers that jeopardize the very existence of human civilization. The countries that won World War II maintain their leadership in the UN even today. Five countries are permanent members of the UN Security Council, each of them entitled to a veto. There is also the European Union to be taken into account today. Germany, Japan, China, and Russia are different from what they once were. Other countries have undergone dramatic changes as well. Having been essentially bipolar for quite a lengthy period because of the confrontation between two world powers with immense nuclear arsenals at their disposal, the contemporary world is a wholly different place. Deployment of a great many bombs remains a sheer impossibility, but threatening other countries with just a few is something many countries can afford and they do not hesitate to do so. Globalization is under way, and the scientific and technological advances being made are considerable. Mankind is facing a whole new vista of opportunities and prospects of development. New discoveries are being made, and new weapons invented. The escalations we are witnessing should encourage a more determined effort to reorganize the framework of global regulation. "This crisis may be remembered in history as the greatest opportunity used for the purpose of strengthening mechanisms of international cooperation and their adaptation to requirements of the century," as then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said in December 2003.

Rumor has it that the Chechen militants planned to seize a Russian nuclear submarine and blackmail the government.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

166

The existence of international organizations that influence global affairs while carefully remaining out of the spotlight is brought up every now and then. One such is known as the Trilateral Commission, founded by David Rockefeller and chaired by Zbigniew Brzezinski and purporting to facilitate globalization and unrestricted access to all countries for transnational corporations. The influence exerted by the Freemasons, Bilderberg Club9, Trilateral Commission, and Committee 30010 is frequently speculated upon.

The G8 and the World Economic Forum in Davos also handle problems of global magnitude. The G7 (the G8 minus Russia) accounts for two-thirds of global GDP. The clout these countries wield is truly immense. One would think that the G8 would be able to handle a great many issues as a so-called "world government." The capacities of this group of countries will only increase if it is joined by China, India, Brazil and Mexico and, perhaps, some other countries that have been gaining weight and influence. Established in 1999, G20 includes twothirds of the population of the word and 93% of global GDP8. (The 2009 G8 summit involved invitees from a number of other countries; some meetings were attended by representatives of as many as thirty countries of the world). It appears logical to forecast further strengthening of cooperation in the BRIC group (Brazil, Russia, India and China) which embraces about one-half of the Earth population.

security basis on the African continent. We deem it necessary to shift from the concept of protection from risks to that of risk control through the introduction of sustainable development mechanisms. "The inertia of the unipolar world ideology manifests itself in various spheres of international relations, including unilateral moves in missile defense and space militarization, attempts at using arms control procedures for parity disruption and expansion of military-political blocs. The solidarity expressed by everybody after September 11, 2001 should be revived on the new grounds, cleared of all geopolitical ambitions."

Movements for World Government The idea that it will take some new, extraordinary mechanisms to prevent the destruction of life on Earth has been promoted by prominent physicists people who saw the dangers inherent in nuclear weapons before anyone else. Calls for such mechanisms were made by Albert Einstein, Frederic Joliot-Curie, Niels Bohr, Igor Kurchatov, and Andrey Sakharov (see Chapter I, The History of the Question). Einstein complained that "man is not ready for atomic weapons; a new mentality is needed." Robert Oppenheimer, the man in charge of research into nuclear power in the United States, did his best to slow down the H-bomb project11. Niels Bohr, or so they say, came up with the idea of imparting atomic secrets to the Soviet Union in order to do away with the hazardous nuclear monopoly. In the 1970s, Andrey Sakharov sugLeaders of Brazil, Russia, China and India gested establishment of a world government in which the (Yekaterinburg, June 2009) Soviet Union and United States would play an instrumental role, being the powers that had practically 100% of the global stock of nuclear arsenals at their disposal and could therefore dictate their will to the world. Developments took a different turn, as we know: Soviet
8 G20 = G8 (the United States, Great Britain, France, Japan, Germany, Russia, Canada, Italy) plus Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the European Union as a separate member. 9 The Bilderberg Club is an international structure founded in 1954 with its headquarters in the Hague. Membership is restricted to European and American conservatives, who control approximately 33% of global wealth. Some members sit on an even more powerful center, the Trilateral Commission, established in 1973 by David Rockefeller and Zbigniew Brzezinski. The Trilateral Commission controls 60% of global wealth. There exists a widespread opinion that these organizations control global affairs to a certain extent by influencing presidential elections, the appointment of prime ministers, etc. 10 Committee 300 by John Koleman (1991, Russian edition 2001) describes the activities of a clandestine committee that performs what amounts to the functions of a world government. It controls the actions of national leaders in the world powers, banks, industries, and global policies. The committee seeks to reduce the global population to 1 billion through wars, crises, starvation, diseases, degradation induced by drug-addiction, and so on. It aspires to move production to economically backward countries where what essentially "slave labor" is available; to suspend practically all research; crush the existing religions and establish one uniform church; assist suprastate establishments like the UN, IMF, etc.; and do away with the sovereign integrity of states. Known as the Age of Aquarius Conspiracy program, it is postulated as involving dozens of organizations worldwide. The book even lists members of the Committee 300 representatives of ruling elites, royal houses, bankers, and so on. The existence and omnipotence of this Committee are doubtful. Indeed, why did it not prevent the rise of fascism, confrontation in the Cold War, and the danger Islam is posing today? The struggle in each of these episodes of human history was truly dangerous for the whole world. 11 Harassment from the US Administration was all Oppenheimer's efforts earned him. This turn of events made him Sakharov's precursor.

Chapter 11

167

and American leaders ruled their respective blocs only, and the confrontation between them increased the risk of a catastrophe. Even now, by the way, the opinion is widespread that the multipolar world of the future should a priori to envisage rivalry between the poles or centers of power, even military rivalry perhaps. In other words, the 85-year-long search for management on a global scope notwithstanding, we are essentially back to square one and should therefore begin the search all over again looking for options (perhaps, even a world government) that will prove more effective than what we have been able to come up with so far. Reorganization of the UN may be such an option, establishment of a framework that will bridge the abyss between the lives (prosperity) of the two existing poles, orchestrate global disarmament, facilitate environmental protection, and find ways and means of defusing conflicts at their earliest stages. Doing all this will not be easy, particularly because there is no saying at this point what support (or resistance) of the radical reorganization of the UN we should expect from the United States, a country aspiring to sole leadership in the world and the privilege of dealing with international issues the way it sees fit. As a matter of fact, options of reorganization of the UN or replacement of the UN Charter with a world constitution were discussed as far back as the 1950s. Some organizations grappling with the problem are the World Constitution and Parliament Association, World Federalist Movement, World Mondialist Movement, and others. Norbert Wiener, the founder of cybernetics, spoke of a world government and a world state back in the 1950s. He believed that information technology and communications might become a means of radical change in the economic, social, cultural, and political spheres of the life of society. Terms like "social superorganism," "cyber-communism," and even "socialism with a cybernetic face" (!) were coined and used at different times. Sometimes it is not even a world government that is being discussed, but "a central guiding system, an aggregate of suprastate and supranational bodies that do not govern territories or ethnic-social units but govern global processes social, biospherical, and so on." (To a certain extent, some such organizations already exist, but their efficiency leaves much to be desired). Even world constitutions have been drafted. The Constitution for the Federation of Earth is one of them, the result of debates at four assembly meetings between 1968 and 1991. It suggests a World Parliament of three houses comprising a House of Peoples (elected in 1 thousand world electoral and administrative districts), House of Nations (with one to three representative of every member state), and House of Counselors (200 of them, elected worldwide). This global legislature will run three branches of the government, namely, the Presidium of 5 (executive body), the World Judiciary, and the Enforcement System, this last comprising the World Police and the World Attorney General. A Bill of Rights for the Citizens of Earth is the principal document. Every member state in the Federation of Earth is granted the power to perform certain functions as well. The World Police are only equipped to deal with criminals. All military units and formations are outlawed, both for member states and organizations.
The Humanist Manifesto 2000 appeared not long ago. Representatives of almost 30 countries signed the document, many of them Nobel Prize winners. The Humanist Manifesto 2000 suggests ideas that resemble the above listed: - establishment of a world parliament or a more powerful and effective UN; - a new international system of taxation and assistance to backward regions with economic development and stabilization of the population growth; - procedures regulating transnational corporations and state monopolies; - a more powerful world judiciary; and - abolition of the veto power at the UN Security Council.

The options suggested here may provide the basis for a world government, but a pressing problem should be addressed first the problem of ascending to this level from the world we live in, the world of armed conflicts, aggressive religions, shortage of resources (even shortage of food and water in some regions), and staggering differences in living standards and ways of life. The UN and Sustainable Development

Globalization and interdependence have created a new trend issues that have always been thoroughly domestic, in the sole jurisdiction of states themselves, are becoming planetary. Such issues include environmental and economic problems, problems related to the development of new kinds of weapons, use of space, religious or ideological education which might affect the interests of other countries. Acquiring international character is the war on crime, terrorism, uncontrollable deposition (in offshore zones, first and foremost) and transaction of capital, money laundering, and sponsorship of criminal activities. It will take joint effort to restore and maintain order in cyberspace to deal with viruses, spam, copyright protection, and integrity of the software running life-support systems.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

168

The prevailing tendencies being what they are, the world as we know it is unlikely to survive without broader and more efficient international management and simultaneous restriction of sovereignty. More decisive and profound international interference with individual countries' economies and policies may come to be required. The UN regularly discusses matters of the future in the Security Council, General Assembly, and profile structures. Two conferences were convened in the not-so-distant past, a conference on sustainable development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and another in Johannesburg in 2002 (colloquially known as Rio and Rio+10). The very attendance is an indication of the importance attached to the problems on the agenda: 22,000 people were present at Rio+10 (10,000 delegates, 8,000 representatives of nongovernmental organizations and civil society, and 4,000 journalists). Both forums emphasized the "responsibility of the UN for our planet, whose generosity is the fundamental source of our progress: moreover, responsibility for the future security and well-being of the generations to come We invited leaders of all countries to come here to reiterate their devotion to sustainable development, protection of the planet and maintenance of the necessary balance so that they would go home and take appropriate steps" (former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan).
Following the first conference, the UN adopted the Agenda for the 21st Century in 1993. Here are some of its clauses: - the war on poverty; - protection of the atmosphere; - complex approach to the planning and rational use of land; - ecologically safe use of biotechnologies; - protection of oceans, seas, and their bioresources; - safe and economically expedient disposal of radioactive wastes; - observance of the rights of women for the purposes of sustainable and fair development; - promotion of science in the name of sustainable development; - assistance in enlightenment, informing the population, and personnel training; and - advancement of national mechanisms and international cooperation for the purpose of establishment of potential in the developing countries12.

Some countries did take certain steps to initiate transition to sustainable development. The Decree of the President of the Russian Federation "On State Strategy of the Russian Federation in Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development" dated 1994 aimed to arrange a "level approach to the tasks of future socioeconomic development and preservation of a propitious environment and potential of resources for the purposes of meeting the requirements of the population."13 Various UN organizations have proclaimed decade-long campaigns more than once the Third Decade to Combat Racism and Racial Discrimination (1993-2003), International Decade for a Culture of Peace and Nonviolence for the Children of the World (2001-2010), International Decade for the Eradication of Colonialism (2001-2010), United National Literacy Decade (2003-2012), and others14.

"There was a period when the question was suspension of the Cold War and channeling of the resources into economic development of the backward countries," Mikhail Gorbachev said. "It never happened. The estrangement between the wealthy and the poor countries grew. The UN urged the developed countries to allocate about 1% of the GDP to the weak countries. They allocate a pittance instead or nothing at all."

Annan echoed this: "We have approached a decisive turning point in history New and various threats have taken shape. We have to take another look at the mechanism of international relations: whether or not it is up to these new challenges? And what changes should be introduced if it is not? The world of crying inequity where millions are subject to oppression and live in extreme poverty will never become a truly safe world for even the privileged citizens" (December 2003). The pressing nature of finding a solution to the problem of survival being undeniable, the tempo and results of the steps taken are not up to the importance of the issue. The UN activities, recommendations, and decisions are mostly theoretical. Practical changes are minute or, rather, they take place at a pace that does not correspond to the requirements of the situation. The very fact that the interim between Rio and Rio+10 conferences amounted to a decade is quite revealing. ("The results of the Johannesburg summit cannot be appraised as a total failure, but neither has the summit brought about the consequential conceptual or political achievements very many had counted on" (Bailes, SIPRI, 2003).)

Yet earlier, in 1987, a Report of the UN World Commission On Environment and Development was published. Headlined "Our Common Future," the report promoted the idea of sustainable and controllable development, pointing to the need of a global restructuring (perhaps, the ideas of the report were to some extent prompted by perestroika which was launched in the Soviet Union at that time). 13 The government of the Russian Federation had the book Strategy and Problems of Sustainable Development of Russia in the XXI Century prepared for Rio+10. 14 Within the UN, these issues lie within the competence of the UN Department for Policy Coordination and Sustainable Development, the UN Commission on Sustainable Development and the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment.
12

Chapter 11

169

The UN convened a special session of the General Assembly, Rio+5, in 1997, where it confessed to being "greatly upset because the general trend in the sphere of sustainable development is worse than it was before 1992": "We are not dealing as much with regress as we are with despondency, with the lack of political will necessary for radical changes" (Razali Ismail, president of the UN General Assembly). Academician Nikita Moiseyev made the following assessment of the conference. "It is far too late It failed to live up to scientists' expectations or rise to a sufficiently high level," Moiseyev said. "It never summoned the courage necessary to face the truth; politicians' thinking turned out to be shackled by clichs. Combination of spontaneous capacities of the Market and Collective Mind is the solution. We ought to reach the level of society where people think and act together." Viktor Danilov-Danilyan, Kim Losev and Igor Reif wrote in their book In Front of the Civilization's Main Challenge that "now that three decades have passed since the first forum and more than 10 years since the second one, we cannot but conclude that both forums, Rio and Rio+10, have fallen through, or if we express things even more harshly, have been failures." "The biggest gathering of leaders in history unfolds this week at the United Nations as they preen and boast about how much they're helping the world's poor," Nicholas Kristof, wrote in an article on the 60th anniversary of establishment of the UN in the New York Times (September 2005). "In short, it may be the greatest assembly in history of hypocrites... The fact is that with just a few exceptions, the presidents and prime ministers coming to the UN summit are doing a disgraceful job in helping the poor. The US and other rich countries seem unwilling to provide a total of $7 billion annually for the next decade to provide 2.6 billion people with access to clean drinking water. Meanwhile, AIDS kills three million people a year yet annual world spending to fight AIDS amounts to three days of military expenditures In India each year 130,000 girls are discriminated to death Rather than toasting themselves, these leaders should apologize for this continuing holocaust." Today: Is the United States the Acknowledged Leader? How Long before Its Transformation into a World Government? While the Cold War was raging, the parity between the two world powers prevented each from usurping the role of a world government. Today, however, the United States have made attempts to perform these functions from time to time. America's domination and instrumental role in the sphere of global security are determined by objective reality, regardless of the fact that it does not exactly make anyone happy, the Americans themselves included. First, however, it was the United States and its closest ally Israel that found themselves under fire before others did, and to a greater extent. Second, the United States is the most powerful country in the world. It has the most potent economy and army and is far ahead of other countries in research15 and design and application of new technologies, is the world leader in the higher education. The gap between it and even its closest rivals already being impressive, the United States is the closest to establishing a so-called information-oriented society that will allow for an even faster growth of labor productivity. Such positions of the United States are largely the result of the 20th century's catastrophes: While the Old World powers were busy destroying each other, the United States were working to accumulate power. Just like in the Chinese parable about a monkey sitting on the hill and watching the tigers fighting in the valley. The respect it commands and the dollar that all but dominates global finances enable the United States to make use of other countries' riches and resources in its own economy. The world lives in an era in which knowledge and talent are becoming the prime value, and the influx of talent to the United States (far exceeding its influx to any other country) earns it dividends that defy even approximate estimates. Military installations in the Middle East and in Central Asia have expanded the network of US military bases that were established throughout the world in the Cold War. The US Army uses so-called mobile bases, i.e., aircraft-carriers, as well, not to mention airfields and ports leased in countries close to conflict areas. "Where military expenditures and qualitative parameters of military might are concerned, the American ones exceed those of the 32 following countries," as was written in the SIPRI Yearbook 2005. The new US strategy (information on which first appeared in early 2005) emphasizes that " the principal threats to US security are posed by rogue states and terrorist networks; a serious danger is posed by a combination of radicalism and technologies." The US Administration believes that the danger is posed by the so-called arc of instability that runs from the Caribbean Basin through most of Africa, the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Middle East, South Asia, and North Korea. US energy preparedness is another headache: clashes in oil-producing countries are fraught with risks of creating crises of the American economy. Expansion of war on terror may entail attempts to overrun or disrupt oilproducing infrastructure of the Persian Gulf countries. The opinion is that US troops should be deployed throughout the world to be able to fight terrorism and remain prepared for involvement in a great many petty
15 More than $100 billion worth of research expenditures come from the national budget, and approximately as much again from private foundations.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

170

wars in distant and dangerous places, housed in numerous military bases in Kyrgyzstan, the Philippines, Singapore, Africa, and Eastern Europe. The United States is the only country that is developing its armed forces in order to secure strategic domination on sea, in air, and in space and in order to be able to take over major territories. The idea is to be able to lash at any target, unexpectedly and with devastating results, throughout the world. This is necessary for establishment of global leadership (dominion?). The United States has mounted several military, police operations with the international community's approval and UN authorization (in Afghanistan) and without it (in Yugoslavia and Iraq). George W. Bush's statements on Iran in early 2006 included threats of preemptive nuclear strikes. War on aggressive Islamism is known as the great ideological confrontation of the 21st century. The United States arrests and passes judgment on presidents of foreign countries (as in Panama and, instigated by the United States, in the former Yugoslavia and Iraq). But what if the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq foment radicalization of other countries? What if the latter decide that only nuclear weapons may spare them a similar fate? North Korea and Iran are already thinking along these lines. As a matter of fact, safeguarding itself from American pressure (attack) is one of the principal considerations of every country that is developing its own nuclear potential or maintains an existing one. U.S. GDP equals the GDPs of the four next most-developed countries Japan, Germany, Great Britain and France taken together16. There were about 3 million millionaires (almost one out of every hundred) and 415 billionaires in the United States (before the crisis, according to Forbes, March 2007). This is a politically stable state with a Constitution adopted over two centuries ago and a country that has mostly solved its own domestic social and ethnic problems and contributed greatly to the rearrangement of the world in the post-World War II period17. The United States' contribution to the world in the spheres of freedom and protection of human rights is undeniable. It overcame racism, segregation, and poverty. Francis Fukuyama wrote in 2002 that "the Americans tend to believe that their institutions and values democracy, individual rights, priority of the law, and prosperity based on economic freedom are universal aims people the world over will share if given the opportunity." According to Joseph S. Nye, U.S. policy ideologists use the term "soft power," which comes down to the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion. Soft power arises from the attractiveness of a country's culture, political ideals, and policies. When our policies are seen as legitimate in the eyes of others, our soft power is enhanced, Joseph S. Nye wrote in his book Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics ( 2004). The author points out that soft power wanes when American jackboots are trampling the world. Soft power is about information. It is the power of information and image, not of material factors such as bullets, warheads, or dollars). No one is likely to challenge American leadership in the near future, perhaps, in the next 15-20 years. Yet, the United States is prone to "neglecting international structures and commitments and acting in accordance with the rules the Americans set for themselves, like a maverick sheriff" (Adam D. Rofeld, SIPRI Yearbook 2000). We are witnessing a tendency to encroach on others' interests while dealing with one's own problems. "America is arrogant, a trait that vexes others immensely. It does not bother with listening to others' arguments, and that's a fact. By and large, true greatness implies great patience, great tolerance, and great understanding. This is what America fails to demonstrate all too often, but it should be remembered that America and its leaders are but human beings, sometimes quite shallow. They are not saints or apostles. America is the global policeman of the 21st century but, unlike the previous candidates for the part, America is a democratic policeman milder and more delicate than all predecessors, to say nothing of paranoiacs like Hitler or even relatively progressive policemen like Napoleon" (Radio Liberty). Most countries support US policy to a greater or lesser extent: US action to the best of Washington's determination and capacities is deemed better than chaos caused by mass terrorism and global destabilization. The Americans' mentality distinctly sets them apart from both their enemies and allies. The "anti-American" trends in Europe over the last several years have met with an "anti-European" disposition in the United States. There is a potential for rapport between these two allies, as well as a potential for discord. Europe and the United States regularly treat each other to outbursts of exasperation, ridicule, and biting articles in the media. The political debates are quite substantial as well, such as those over the war in Iraq. Battles for influence within the global financial system never cease (the place of the dollar and the euro and the exchange rate), and neither side ever hesitates to slap discriminating measures against the other. Clashes are fomented by different geopolitical positions, levels of economic development, interests of domestic manufacturers, traditions, ways of life, emphasis on priority of one's own national interests, and even the US penchant for "lording it over." What counts, however, is that the
The share of the United States in the world GDP was 32% in 1913, 26% in 1960, 22% in 1980, 27% in 2000 and 26% in 2007 (Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World (2008)). 17 During World War II the United States were spending up to 37.8% of their GDP on the military programs; in 1962, right before the Vietnam war, the U.S. military spending was equal to 9.3% of the GDP. Presently, all direct and indirect expenses put together, the U.S. military spending is around 6% of the GDP. Assessing the combined cost of the military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan (up until 2015?) some analysts name figures in excess of $2 trillion.
16

Chapter 11

171

It should be noted as well that the middle of the 20th century saw a change of guard and appearance of a new regulator of a considerable part of global events. The colossal British Empire controlled the seas and dominated a substantial part of the world throughout the 19th century (discounting Eurasia, under Russian rule, and some other territories). Great Britain facilitated the globalization of commerce. A country of undisputed economic accomplishments, it was known as the global workshop. In the 20th century, however, it stepped down in favor of the United States, regarding the latter as the mother would the son embarked on a brilliant career. The Atlantic Charter that Churchill and Roosevelt signed in August 1941 officially assigned global leadership to the United States. The Atlantic Charter became a rough draft of the doctrine of liberalism and democracy as applied to the whole world. It prohibited all and any territorial changes unless with the consent of the population; proclaimed the equality of nations, great and small, victorious and defeated, in international commerce and access to raw materials; laid down foundations of international cooperation in economic and social spheres; and pronounced freedom of navigation. The two great Anglo-Saxon states demonstrated harmony of their views on the future postwar world.

discord is not fundamental yet, that discord or no discord solutions to complicated issues are still found. However, future changes of and in the world will require even more in terms of tolerance and alteration of mentalities.

George W. Bush suggested a program of American action in support of reforms in the developing countries in May 2005. To be more exact, he suggested establishing an Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization within the US State Department to aid the developing countries. The budget of the structure exceeded $100 million in 2006. "Freedom is making unprecedented progress worldwide. We witnessed Rose, Orange, Tulip, and Cedar revolutions these past 18 months Expectations of changes are growing all over the Caucasus and Central Asia, and these changes will come to pass," Bush said. Practically every new democracy passes through a "phase of turmoil and indecision," and US aid will be made available to make this phase as painless and short-lived as possible. US civilian officials by the thousand will be used to this end, and the US Army will be "adapted." The world is anticipating new moves to be made by the U.S. now that the new administration headed by Barack Obama has arrived in the White House. Judging by the anti-crisis program adopted by G20 in London in April 2009 (see Chapter 9 "Crisis of 2007-2011"), there are reasons to expect certain activation in the field of global management too, maybe a reform of the UN. Developments in the world meanwhile are taking some new and unexpected turns. What if Iran, Iraq (in its new edition), Pakistan, and some other Muslim countries succeed in coordinating their actions one day? A great deal depends on who is in charge in Pakistan. What foreign policy will be pursued by its new president? Pakistan is a nuclear state. An alliance such as this, if established in the first place, may rapidly boost its nuclear might and use this factor in international affairs. (We can only hope that such a coalition will have the wisdom not to adopt the aggressive slogans and methods of Islamic fundamentalists.) How will the current economic crisis affect situation in the world? Maybe it will bring about

The mantle of leadership having been shouldered, the United States is compelled to display the strength and patience needed to take the interests of its allies into account, secure their support, and enlist their cooperation in joint actions. International cooperation, interaction between national secret services, and joint use of intellectual capacities are a must if the problems the international community is facing are ever to be solved. "The paradox of American might in the 21st century comes down to the fact that the greatest world power since ancient Rome cannot accomplish its ends unilaterally. The world needs the United States as never before, but the United States needs the rest of the world as well," quoted from SIPRI Yearbook 2002. American leadership needs acknowledgment from a coalition of democratic states through voluntary acceptance based on moral consensus and shared values, but "While this understanding is reflected in official US statements, in practice a US tendency toward unilateralism in decision-making prevails," quoted from SIPRI Yearbook 2002. George Soros remarked on this subject in the following words: "We need to work to overcome discord, maintaining stability and justice of the world order so as to retain our leadership in it We are running the risk of damaging and even destroying our own habitat and civilization. Terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction are but harbingers of what awaits us. The necessity of a better world order was realized before too, but the threat of terrorism made international cooperation [of a new kind E.A.] even more of a necessity (A new) society cannot be established without American leadership. We should be ready to abide by the rules we force on others. We should be ready to share in the expenditure and, what really counts, reconcile ourselves to the fact that other participants will inevitably have their own opinions, and other states, their own national interests." A different opinion has been voiced by Margaret Thatcher: "Absence of global police and global armies only reflects the fact that structures like these do not fit the existing framework of democratic legitimacy. World government does not exist for the lack of a world state and global public opinion. Its realization is only possible by suppressing democratic instincts and depriving democracy of its true meaning." The situation is truly paradoxical: the supreme achievements of civilization (democracy and liberalism) are in need of certain restrictions for the sake of establishment of a new, stiffer, nearly totalitarian regime that will enable civilization to survive. It seems that the extremists will accomplish what they set out to achieve, at least in part: They will see the Western democratic ways of life they hate so much changed.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

172

some positive results too, such as helping to consolidate the world's major powers and cause them to focus on the problem of sustainable development of the human civilization? Numerous factors define the shape of long-term American-Russian relations. On the one hand, Russia possesses a colossal military potential and vast resources oil, gas, and so on. Add here the Kremlin's ambitions and political clout with some countries. On the other, it cannot ensure a necessary rate of economic development (perestroika, or reorganization) or proper living standards. Neither can it cope with the problematic demographic situation. In other words, Russia has been unable so far to ascend to the category of the most-advanced countries in the world. The United States in the meantime is compelled to take Russia (its strong sides) into account and even support it as an ally in the efforts to restrict the proliferation of Islamist influence and that of developing China and in the war on terrorism. The United States needs a stable Russia in arms control as well. At the same time, Washington remains wary. It would like very much to prevent Russia from gaining weight in international affairs and upping its influence.

It is important for mankind to avoid the following scenario: a group of individuals or countries possessing weapons of mass destruction and impeccable indoctrination techniques (such techniques should be perfected to the extent of full thought control how else can they safeguard themselves from uncontrollable actions by individuals?) may eventually succumb to the temptation to carry out an inhuman action on a global scale in the interests of a narrow circle (for example, the use of genetic or ethnic weapons against the masses or something equally outrageous).

The United States is determined to become the cutting edge of the scientific and technical revolution within the next 10-15 years and assume leadership in dealing with the problems of the world. Some countries and international organizations will be its partners at one point and rivals at another first and foremost, China, Japan, India, Mexico, Brazil, the European Union and Russia18. The world is so expansive and integral that absence of approval and assistance from other countries may frustrate US efforts in the war on Islamist fundamentalism and even spell its defeat, which would itself spell the defeat of all of the international community. Recent history should have taught the international community a lesson. There is no need to remind anyone of the results of a dismissal of fascism as something of little importance in the 1930s or support of terrorist groups by the world powers in the Cold War. As I said earlier in this chapter, crises necessitate application of systems that allow for swiftness, decisiveness, and firmness. Even encroachments on democracy and other losses must be put up with. This must be accepted when it is a matter of life and death. The problem is finding the path between Scylla and Charybdis undivided authority and collective leadership. Undivided authority, with totalitarianism as its extreme embodiment, entails numerous threats all too frequently, whoever wields power will care first and foremost for himself.

The situation will dramatically change in the future, when the European Union, China, or other states or groups of them overtake the United States. Dangerous confrontations will have to be avoided. New forms of globalprocess management will have to be discovered and applied. As things stand, however, the problem comes down to the necessity of rapid response, sometimes even by sheer strength of arms, to emergencies that appear, and American leadership requires a counterweight, i.e., other countries' participation in decision-making19.

The following is an excerpt from The Post-American World by Fareed Zakaria, where the author concludes that the United States is gradually losing its positions in the world: "Brazilian, South Korean, Mexican, Argentinian and Malaysian companies, let alone those from China and India, have joined the ranks of the world biggest transnational corporations or will soon be there. New York is losing its positions of the world's financial center to London. The world's tallest building is located in the capital of Taiwan, the city of Taipei, the world's wealthiest person is a citizen of Mexico and the world's biggest public corporation is registered in China. Russia and Ukraine produce world's largest aircraft, India has world largest oil refinery and largest factories are located in China. Las Vegas is no longer world's gambling capital. Macao is. Finally, Hollywood has lost its position as the world's largest film industry (in terms of the number of movies produced annually) to the Indian film-maker, Bollywood." 19 Concluding this chapter, let us present an excerpt from Fareed Zakaria's book, The Post-American World, where the author ponders on the development of the human civilization over the last several hundred years.The last five centuries have seen three 'tectonic' shifts of power. The first one, which took shape in the 15th hundred and accelerated dramatically in the 18th century, was the one of the historical rise of the West. This epoch begot the phenomenon of "modern" with all its attributes in science, technology, commerce and capitalism and its industrial and agrarian revolutions. And it was characterized by the lengthy dominance of the West over the rest of the world. Second shift began at the end of the 19th century, and its essence was the rise of the United States. Over the last two decades, the influence of the United States has acquired a 'unipolar' character a phenomenon without a precedent in modern history. Finally, a third global shift is taking places now, right before our eyes, as a consequence of a rapid economic growth of the large countries of Asia and not only them. The third shift is actually creating a new world system where former 'objects' and 'observers' are transforming into real 'players' acting on the basis of their own interests. The distribution of power is shifting from America to other centers of power."
18

Chapter 12

173

Chapter 12

Weapons1 At all stages of human civilization's development, human inventiveness was largely used for developing new means of making war: after the stone and club, it was the spear and bow; then battering rams, war chariots, and battleships; and in epochs closer to our own, tanks, aircraft, and nuclear weapons. Missiles were devised to deliver warheads to any spot on the globe. Almost undetectable submarines carry hundreds of nuclear charges capable of destroying whole cities on multiple continents. During the Cold War, the opposing superpowers actively developed chemical and biological weapons. The current period has seen a new development: specially trained people suicide bombers who are able to circumvent practically any defense and even use weapons of mass destruction are now competing with the best modern ways of waging war.
Weapons development and modernization one of the main goals in human science and technology n unceasing pursuit for technical innovation and the urge to be creative have been characteristic features of the human species at all times. Alas, more often than not these positive traits led to the development of new weapons rather than to the creation of better living conditions for people. The same trend invariably persisted on all stages of development, and the human race has become so proficient in arms production that today small groups of people, or even individuals, are capable of launching weapons that can kill millions of people. As Stanislaw Lem wrote, "it has turned out to be easier for us to reproduce nature's destructive powers than its benevolence." As the natural sciences continue to develop faster than the social ones, the gap is increasing between the power of the created means of destruction and our ability to control them. After the stone and club, it was the spear, bow and boomerang, then throwing weapons, rams, war chariots, battleships2. Certain wild tribes have possessed blowguns since time immemorial. With the help of these they managed to cast poison-tipped darts fairly long distances. Crossbows and springalds appeared yet before the Common Era. If we look at the history of war over the last 5,500-6,000 years, we will see that during the first 4,500-5,000 wars involved mostly directcontact primitive weapons3. It was much later, in the 10th century CE, that rockets were first used in China4. Later, by the 13th century, these rockets were brought to Europe by the Arabs. First firearms muskets and cannons were invented in the 14th century. Rockets then appeared in the arsenals of various countries filled with high explosives or other deadly material. There was a period in history in which heavily armed knight cavalry was the mightiest military force in Europe. Weapons and military hardware saw dramatic development during the epoch of the Industrial Revolution, notable From De Re Militari by Roberto Valturio, 15th century achievements here including rifles (guns with rifled screw barrels), pistols, steam-propelled warships and later machine-guns and smokeless explosives. Then
Facts and figures on weapons and military hardware given in this chapter are taken from public sources, and are, therefore, 3-5 years old. This, however, does not seem to be very too important as available data is enough to gives a clear message of general trends in weapons development and the significance of this problem as a whole. 2 Battles involving hundreds of battleships occurred yet before the Common Era. A good example is the battle of Rome against Carthage. Besides, there are historical records pointing to existence of Phoenician vessels as far back as more than 1,000 years BC. 3 The Roman Empire's armies numbered in the hundreds of thousands of people; in the 4th century, before the fall of the empire, the numerical strength of its armies was between 500,000 and 600,000 people. Military service was mandatory for young men, and, as Michael Grant wrote, "young men did all they could to avoid military service... There was a law in effect stipulating iron marks for soldiers, while providing a hideaway for a fugitive soldier was punishable by the death penalty." 4 The first documents about gunpowder are attributed to the 7th century.
1

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

174

there came the moment when the strength of an army became to a large extent determined by the quality of its equipment5. Progress in military machinery gained more momentum toward the end of the 19th century and at the beginning of the 20th. This was the time the first submarines, tanks and aircraft appeared. By the end of World War I, armies had many hundreds of sophisticated pieces of ordnance, military aircraft and tanks. Three decades later, during World War II, sophisticated war machines numbered in the tens of thousands and each displayed much greater firepower. Many of the battleships involved in World War II naval battles were, in fact, floating bases carrying huge supplies of ammunition, fuel and supplies. In the early 20th century, the development, production and accumulation of chemical weapons began, although use of this kind of weapons has so far been limited to only a few incidents. Shortly after the end of World War II, there appeared radar, radio detection and ranging systems and jet-propelled systems gained momentum dramatically. In modern warfare, the average lifetime of a soldier in an open battle can be as short as several minutes. The next stage in arms development was achieved during the Cold War. This, first of all, includes various modernizations and accumulation of nuclear weapons and means of their delivery. Jet warplanes, intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear submarines came to the foreground. Production of military-grade laser installations was launched. Chemical and biological weapons were improved and accumulated. New samples of conventional weapons were regularly tested in incessant local wars. The development of military hardware and its increasing sophistication has caused radical changes in military education and training. In 1945, there existed approximately 160 military technical disciplines, by 1960 the number reached 400, and today it is in excess of 2,000. The speed of weapons development is graphically illustrated by the numbers of new types of weapons used in the local wars of the 20th century: Thus, nine new types of weapons were used during the Korean War (1950-1953), 25 new weapons were used in Vietnam (1964-1975), in wars in the Middle East (1967, 1973, 1982, 1986) the corresponding number was roughly equal to 30, and over 100 new types of weapons and military equipment and systems were employed in subsequent wars. World's overall military expenses were $260 billion over the period from 1901 to 1913, World War I (1914-1918) cost $1.1 trillion, and the cost of World War II (1939-1945) was $6 trillion (all prices are given in 1985 US dollars). The Cold War cost much more than the two World Wars combined: The United States alone spent $4 trillion, while the rest of the world, mostly the Soviet Union, spent $6 trillion (according to alternate assessments, the combined figure is about $12 trillion). The US military budget is currently over $550 billion, while Russia's defense spending is roughly 10% of that amount. Military specialists try to determine the peculiarities of future wars, so that appropriate equipment can devised and made ready. In the past, wars were waged mostly to capture land or exterminate or subjugate people, while later such factors are capture of markets and natural resources gained importance. (As a rule, motives for unleashing was have also included the ambitions and aggressiveness of leaders and their entourages). Often wars were accompanied by dissemination of religions or ideologies or expanding spheres of influence, and sometimes they were waged to gain global superiority. In the next few decades, wars will probably be waged over energy resources and for ecological factors. The Cold War was primarily about superiority and dominance in the world. The ruling elites of both superpowers were struggling for influence, and to achieve their goals they were ready to sacrifice many millions of human lives. The stockpiles of weapons were more than sufficient on both sides, and relations reached a critical point. Fortunately, the world survived... to wait for next the crises, weapons for which are actively being prepared. Had a global war broken out in the second half of the last century, it most likely would not have helped to achieve political goals but would with high probability have resulted in the destruction of the opposing systems. It was this understanding that defused the situation and ultimately convinced the opposing coalitions to end the Cold War. All recent wars have been waged under the motto of "prevention," i.e., primarily in order to destroy terrorist training centers or reduce the risk of terrorist attacks and the danger of creation of weapons of mass destruction6. At this point, we are witnessing a transition to a new style of waging war in which well-aimed strikes are dealt at designated targets using high-precision weapons (unlike nuclear bombs, which destroy huge areas, the main advantage of the new weapons is their accuracy). In effect, such weapons make it possible to virtually paralyze almost any country without invading it with ground troops or risking environmental poisoning. However, the US leadership recently made announcements to the effect that preventive nuclear strikes may also be dealt. Russia's military doctrine allows for the first use of nuclear weapons. The military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan involve cutting-edge systems of communication, reconnaissance and liaison to ensure collective synchronous action of all available forces. Only developed countries with a
5 Here it is appropriate to recall that the first recorded proposal of using the power of steam was related to a military application. The record dates back to the times of Queen Elizabeth and the essence of the proposal is to use iron vessels filled with boiling water as a shooting system. 6 The "preventive strike" concept is tending to become increasingly justified. Even Australia, a traditionally peaceful country, recently included this term in its national defense doctrine.

Chapter 12

175

high potential for research and technology development are capable of producing and modernizing such contemporary battlefield systems. The United States is the clear leader in this field, and the gap with its runners-up is widening. However, as experience indicates, having won in such a war, the winner is not very successful in its attempts to change the system in the subdued country. Countries that cannot have weapons as powerful and effective as the United States now has are likely to opt in favor of a so-called "asymmetrical" response to secure their defense. One of the variants of such "asymmetrical" response is terrorism in the form of attacks on large cities, transportation or other vulnerable facilities. Such preparations stimulate development of portable and difficult-to-detect means of destruction, which may be loaded with toxic chemicals or pathogens, and their likely carriers are suicide bombers. Some experts argue that, in terms of destructive power, terrorism is comparable with the "traditional" strategic weapons7. The selection and training of suicide bombers, shahids, kamikazes, etc. is definitely a landmark in psychology and related disciplines that study the subconscious, metal phenomena and ways of affecting human consciousness. In concluding this passage about military developments as a catalyst of scientific-technical progress, let us recall some of the most important achievements of the 20th century: Nuclear energy (the bomb first, and then nuclear power plants), jet-propelled aircraft (warplanes first, then passenger planes) and orbital satellites (spying and military satellites first, television and communications next). The same is true in the case of computers and the Internet, among others. Weapons of Mass Destruction Nuclear weapons. As we know only too well from history, wars have been steadily growing in both scale and sophistication, ultimately leading to such phenomenon as "world wars" wars that involve more than two countries and are waged on several battlefields and continents. These developments have inevitably stimulated demand for increasingly powerful weapons. In the early 20th century, work was launched with the aim of finding methods for quick destruction of tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands or even millions of people. In addition to such "naturally obvious" things as toxic chemicals or pathogenic germs, the opportunity of releasing the energy contained in matter by means of nuclear reactions was obtained. In the 1920s-30s, leading physicists did not believe that Einstein's formula E = mc2, which implies that colossal amounts of energy are contained in matter, would find practical application one day. Transitions of energy from one form to another takes place in nature, where they can be observed with the help of microprobes or apparatuses in physical research labs. It is important to note that the total amount of energy contained in matter is million of times larger than the chemical energy released in conventional explosives, fuels, etc. It became possible to achieve a nuclear fission chain reaction whereby the mass of certain isotopes (239Pu or 235U) is partially transformed into energy. In a nuclear bomb, such a reaction is initiated by bringing together several pieces of substance matter (elements) to reach a critical mass. Fission-powered nuclear explosion can generate temperatures close to 100 million degrees, which may be enough to trigger a different type of nuclear reaction a fusion reaction. A fusion reaction involves two hydrogen isotopes, tritium and deuterium. The result is also a partial transformation of matter into energy8. The bigger the mass of the thermonuclear reaction agents, the bigger the explosive power of the bomb9.
It probably cost Al Qaeda around $1 million to train terrorists for 9/11, while ultimate losses suffered by the United States amounted to tens of billions of dollars. 8 The first H-bomb was a stationary bomb weighting 82 tons with explosive power equivalent to 10.4 megatons of TNT. It was exploded by the Americans on November 1, 1952. The first transportable H-bomb was made in the Soviet Union and was tested on August 12, 1953. Its explosive power was equivalent to 0.4 megatons of TNT. 9 In terms of energy capacity, the clear leader is antimatter: In our world, the energy capacity of antimatter is calculated as 2 mc2. In other words, the energy capacity of antimatter corresponds to its double weight, not a small portion of weight, as it is for nuclear bombs and H-bombs. Moreover, it does not need to have a critical mass to detonate. As soon as antimatter comes in contact with normal matter, an annihilation reaction occurs whereby 100% of the mass is transformed into energy. For example, the annihilation of 1 gram of matter and 1 gram of antimatter would be equivalent to the explosion of 40,000 tons of TNT. However, at the present stage of knowledge, it is not possible to synthesize antimatter in any appreciable amount (for example, enough to use it for spacecraft fuel); neither does it appear possible to find antimatter anywhere in the observable universe. All that is possible today is to produce very small numbers of antiparticles using fabulously expensive atomic accelerators. It is reasonable to assume that the universe is comprised of both matter and antimatter, and, therefore, antimatter may be found somewhere not very far away from our planet. For example, asteroids of antimatter might turn up near the Earth, in which case we will have a source of fuel and explosive that has no equal. At the same time, there are other theories according to which there is probably no antimatter present in the universe at all.
7

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

176

The production of weapons-grade plutonium or uranium, as well as bomb design and fabrication, requires sophisticated engineering and technological solutions, which is why only a limited number of countries have to date managed to join the "nuclear club." As technology is improved, complicated solutions are being replaced with simpler ones, and the powerful weapon is gradually creeping around the planet despite barriers and other nonproliferation efforts, including on the diplomatic level. India, Pakistan, Israel, South Africa and North Korea have already gone nuclear, while Iran and some other countries are next in line. A nuclear explosion generates electromagnetic radiation, penetrating radiation and a shock wave that destroy not only the enemy's military hardware and faculties, but also people's homes and living organisms. Oceanic explosions may generate tsunamis. Another dangerous nuclear effect is radioactive fallout. A nuclear equivalent to 100,000-500,000 tons of TNT can completely destroy a city of several hundreds of thousands of people. Even more powerful bombs were at times present in the nuclear arsenals of the superpowers. Sakharov's described the effects of a 3-megaton bomb effects in the following way "If we take the Hiroshima bomb explosion as a reference, a 3-megaton bomb would be equal to 150 Hiroshima bombs in terms of conflagration area or to 30 such bombs in terms of area of destruction. If such a bomb explodes in the atmosphere over a city, it will generate a 100-square-kilometer disaster area with fires destroying residential homes to a total of tens of millions of square meters of floor space, leaving not less than 1 million people dying under the rubble being burnt, suffocating with dust and smoke and penetrating radiation; many would die in blocked bomb shelters. In the event of a surface explosion, radioactive fallout would spread over an area of tens of thousands of square kilometers, making it unsuitable for life." There are many different kinds of nuclear weapons. A neutron bomb, for example, concentrates deadly radiation. Its primary purpose is to kill life while inflicting lesser damage on buildings and other inanimate resources. There are miniature nuclear bombs that can be fitted into a small projectile or even carried in a briefcase. Such miniature bombs weigh just a few tens of kilograms. There are also nuclear mines; typically, the yield of such a device is several kilotons. A "dirty bomb" is a conventional bomb containing radioactive material that is dispersed and spread over a large area upon explosion. The primary sphere of application of such bombs is terrorist acts intended to cause massive deaths among a civilian population. A self-destroying nuclear charge technology has reportedly been developed, a system that automatically renders itself harmless and precludes radioactive contamination in the event of falling out of control. Presented in the tables below are selected data on nuclear weapons.
Warheads Deployed as of January 2005 (from SIPRI Yearbook 2005) USA Strategic Nonstrategic 4,216 680 Russia 3,980 3,380 Great Britain 185 France 348 China 282 120 3040* 3040* 200-400 (2008)* India Pakistan Israel

Notes: * likely to be deployed partially.

Total: Approximately 13,47010

Most of the warheads are approximately 0.5 megatons11. The total number of warheads present on the planet today, including in active and passive storage plus plutonium sections in stockpile, may be as large as over 20,000. World stock of plutonium is steadily increasing and is currently approaching 2,000 tons which is much more than is contained in existing warheads12. Sakharov wrote that "three technical aspects of thermonuclear arms have made thermonuclear war a threat to the very existence of civilization. These are the enormous destructive power of thermonuclear explosions, the relative cheapness of rocket-borne thermonuclear weapons and the practical impossibility of effective defense against a massive nuclear missile attack... As soon as the phase of research and development is complete, the launch of large-scale production of thermonuclear weapons and carrier rockets for their delivery would be no more complicated or expensive than, for example, warplane manufacture". As can be easily seen from the table above, having started the nuclear arms race, the United States was challenged by the Soviet Union and then even fell behind. Having become nuclear powers, Great Britain, France and
According to other source, there were approx. 29,000 warheads as of 2005 and approx. 20,500 warheads as of 2008. The most powerful bomb (equivalent to 50 megatons of TNT) was created during the Khrushchev era and was exploded in the area of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago. 12 It has leaked to the press that the United States is developing special systems for making nuclear bombs unusable in the event of being seized by terrorists. Such systems will not only destroy the warhead's electronic and mechanical components but will render its plutonium or uranium unfit for future use in a hand-made device. According to one version, incorporated into each warhead will be a quantity of strong acid or other chemical agent.
10 11

Chapter 12

177

China reached approximately equal levels and stopped. The table also presents data on the nuclear potentials of India, Pakistan and Israel. The number of nuclear bombs present on the planet reached its peak in 1986, when it was close to about 70,000 warheads. Simultaneously, active work was underway in the design and development of carriers of weapons of mass destruction. (For more information on the so-called nuclear weapon triads, see below; some information on the present-day disarmament processes can be found in Chapter 18.).
(According to Valery Bulatov: Russia: Ecology and the Army, 1999) The combined number of nuclear bombs in the arsenals of the five leading nuclear powers in 1945-1995 Year 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1986 1990 1995 USA 6 369 3,057 20,434 32,135 26,492 27,235 23,916 23,510 23,410 21,781 14,111 Soviet Union/ Russia 5 200 1,605 6,129 11,643 19,443 30,062 39,197 45,000 37,000 27,000 Great Britain France China Total 6 374 3267 22,069 38,611 38,526 47,401 54,858 63,792 69,490 60,021 39,047

Nuclear Arms Race Chronology

10 30 310 280 350 350 300 300 300 300

32 36 188 250 360 355 505 485

5 75 185 280 425 425 435 400

Chemical weapons13. Natural poisons have been used as means of warfare since time immemorial, including for killing important persons, spoiling water wells in besieged fortresses, etc. With the development of chemistry and the chemicals industry, people acquired access to numerous artificial substances suitable for both peaceful and military applications. Toxic agents can be sprayed in the air, loaded into shells or released from pressurized cylinders on the battlefield. Chemical weapons were banned by the Hague Declaration of 1899, which was ratified by 27 states. Nevertheless, the Germans used chemical agents during World War One: 125,000 tons of various toxic agents were released, victimizing approximately 1 million people. Winston Churchill said in 1920 that he was "strongly in favor of using poison gas against uncivilized tribes." In 1921 the Red Army used chlorine and phosgene to suppress anti-Bolshevik peasant uprisings in the Tambov Region14. More than 100 states signed the "Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Other Gases, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare" in Geneva in 1925. This, however, did not stop Italy from using chemical weapons in Ethiopia in the 1930s and it did not stop Iraq from using them against the Iranians and the Kurds in the 1980s. The US military used Agent Orange in its herbicidal warfare program in Vietnam, and during World War II the Nazis killed millions of people in concentration camps by poisoning them with toxic gases. To a certain extent, activities directed at promoting drug addiction among the population of a potential enemy state can be called covert chemical warfare. By the end of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union each had approximately 40,000 tons of chemical agents15. These included neuroparalytic, asphyxiating and blistering agents, such as sarin, soman, Vagents, etc. Binary chemical weapons use toxic chemicals produced by mixing two compounds that are stored separately. Lethal doses of chemical agents are usually measured in several milligrams; however, in real battleThe following in an excerpt from the book by Lev Fyodorov: Chemical Weapons A War Against Own People. The Tragic Russian Experience (in three volumes, published in Moscow by the Lesnaya Strana Publishers in 2009). "Neither the civilian population, nor the Russian army were provided with effective means of protection from poisonous substances. The creation of the most versatile in the world stock of chemical weapons targeted against people, flora and fauna is costing our country serious problems now that we are ridding ourselves of this stock. An environmental friendly chemical disarmament is impossible without a system of public monitoring. 14 A written order issued by Soviet Marshal Mikhail Tukhachevsky on June 12, 1921, specifically states "clean up the forests where the bandits are hiding using poison gas; eliminate everybody who is hiding there. From Tukhachevsky's report to Lenin: "We exterminated them like rabid dogs." 15 According to other sources, chemical weapon stockpiles were even larger at their peak. Work is currently underway to develop a process for their liquidation. Reports have been released (Washington Profile Issue 80-932, November 21, 2008) that during the Cold War Russia operated 15 plants producing chemical weapons and chemical weapon storage facilities were deployed in at least 20 locations.
13

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

178

Gennady Onishchenko wrote in Bioterrorism, Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vol. 73, No 3, 2003 that "in the 1993 public report issued by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, it was specifically noted that the recent trend toward extensive development of biotechnologies (which usually have a dual purpose) combined with the difficulty of keeping the production and use of biological agents and toxins under control works to increase the probability of use of biological weapons by Third World countries in local military conflicts, as well as in terrorist acts. The also document pointed to several important advantages of bacteriological weapons as compared to nuclear or chemical weapons: serious damage can be done to the enemy's economy by means of preemptive secret germ attacks on agricultural plants and animals."

field conditions they are used in much larger amounts. Under international treaties, chemical agents are being eliminated, for which purpose special plants are being built. It will take several years to eliminate the accumulated stockpiles of chemical weapons16. In addition to weapons-grade chemical agents, there are relatively harmless substances used by riot police, such as tear gas. The use of such chemical agents against terrorists or to break up unauthorized protest rallies is tending to become a routine practice. Secret services use various poisons to kill political opponents and other unwanted people17. Biological or bacteriological weapons. This type of weapon is probably one of the cheapest. Dissemination of pathogenic germs may cause epidemics and massive deaths. Particularly dangerous are specially constructed (including by the methods of genetic engineering), modified germs from which there is no immunity and no cure. These may be varieties of smallpox, anthrax, plague, brucellosis, glanders, tularemia, cholera, yellow fever or other varieties of jungle fever, encephalitis, spotted fever, abdominal typhoid, influenza, malaria, dysentery, etc. Raymond Kurzweil wrote that "the better people understand how their organism works, the more opportunities they acquire to devise a deadly virus; for example, an airborne spreading virus that would cause no symptoms but would kill in a few years after contraction. Or a virus that would selectively attack people with certain genetic characteristics." In order to be fit for warfare applications, an aerosol has to be inhalable, i.e., the size of its droplets has to be in the range from 1 to 10 micrometers. In an effort to "modernize" germs, biological weapons developers are trying to make them resistant to antibiotics and other medicines (see also Footnote 38 to Chapter 5 on the Nazis' plans for developing and using biological weapons). A scenario is thinkable in which bacilli are first surreptitiously disseminated over the territory of a potential enemy state and then, triggered by signal or timer, begin to generate toxins. There are known microorganisms which follow a similar pattern when attacking a large organism. In biological warfare, the attacking party should make sure to vaccinate its army and civilian population or develop other effective methods of fighting the disease. Infections may be contracted by inhaling germ-containing airborne aerosol, through the mucous membranes or broken skin, via food or water, insect bites, or contacts with infected people or animals. During the siege of a fortress in Crimea (the modern city of Feodosia) by the Golden Horde in the 14th century, the attackers threw corpses of people and animals infected with bubonic plague into the fortress. At that time, plague raged over Europe, taking 25 million human lives and much more in Africa. The overall death toll was about 60 million or one-third of then world population18. These were the first decades of the Hundred Years' War; the war went on despite the fact that each of the warring sides had lost a considerable part of its population. During the colonization of America in the 18th century, smallpox-infected blankets were given to American Indians as "sign of friendship" causing massive deaths among the locals who had no immunity for this disease. In the same epoch, smallpox was used by the French in their Indian War. During World War II, the Japanese used biological weapons against China, dropping plague-infected fleas from airplanes and performing experiments on POWs and civilians, with reportedly no fewer than 3,000 people dying. In the United States, biological weapons research was started in 1941 and gained momentum during the Cold War, when a many-thousands-strong army of biologists was employed to work in this field. A number of samples were tested during the Korean War and the war in Vietnam, where defoliants and infected insects were disseminated from airplanes. In the Soviet Union as well, large-scale research was performed in the field of germ weapons development. Facilities were commissioned capable of producing thousands of tons of germ-infected aerosols a year.

The "Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction" which came into force in 1975. It was signed by 144 countries, some of which have never ratified the document. A number of countries continue to perform research aimed

16 Izvestia wrote (Izvestia, June 20, 2008) that the stock of chemical weapons deployed in the village of Leonidovka in the Penza Region was sufficient to kill mankind several times. In Russia alone there are seven major storage facilities of chemical weapons. So far (as of 2008) only a quarter of the Russia's chemical weapons and only 38% of their world's stock have been liquidated. 17 Since several years ago policemen in Russia (and apparently in other countries too) have been provided with gas masks while on duty. 18 Known as "Spanish Flu" or "La Grippe," the influenza of 1918-1919 was a global disaster, the worst of all known pandemics, with a death toll of 30 (40?) million (more than World War I). There is always a danger that new germ cultures will appear (not artificial, but natural ones) for which human beings have no immunity. Particularly dangerous are combinations of human and animal viruses, like "Bird Flu," which may be spread around the globe by migratory birds.

Chapter 12

179

at "finding ways to counteract possible bacteriological attacks."19 According to available information, at least ten countries are in possession of germ weapons. Although a number of defensive scenarios have been devised to counteract possible bacteriological attacks against large cities20, it is hardly believable that even the most developed countries will be able to effectively protect themselves from massive bacteriological attacks in the foreseeable future21. The report "Does Russia Observe the Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention?" by Kalinina and Kirichenko, SIPRI Yearbook, 2005, states that underassessment of the hidden danger of biological war or bioterrorism is fraught with most disastrous and unpredictable consequences22. Discussed below (see the section Other Types of Weapons) is a new area of genetic engineering development of microorganisms for destroying elements of military hardware and other military and civilian facilities. Missiles: The Nuclear Triad As was noted above, solid-fuel rockets powered by gunpowder were used by the Chinese many centuries ago. The idea of reactive propulsion can be found in ancient manuscripts. The first jet-propelled rockets existed in the Middle Ages in the arsenals of several armies. As of the early 19th century, their range reached 3 kilometers, and at approximately the same time multiple rocket launchers, the forefather of the famous Katyusha, appeared. However, traditional artillery systems were much more common and widespread than rockets. The possibility of using liquid fuel for jet-propelled rockets was raised by Konstantin Tsiolkovsky in 1903. Tsiolkovsky also studied various options of using jet-propelled rockets for space fights. Shortly before World War II, rocketry research was performed by several groups in different countries, the most distinguished being Robert Goddard in the United States; Max Valier and Hermann Oberth in Germany; and Friedrich Zander23, Mikhail Tikhonravov, Sergei Korolyov and others in the Soviet Union. Multiple-rocket launchers the Russian Katyusha and its German rival, the six-barreled Nebelwerfer-41 (by analogy with the Katyusha, Soviet soldiers nicknamed it the Vanyusha), were effectively used during World War II. The effective firing range of these rocket launchers was several kilometers24. The new era of rocketry began closer to the end of World War II with the creation of the V125 and V-2 by the Germans. These rockets had the following main characteristics: speed of 600 km/h (V-1) and 5,700 km/h (V-2), launch mass of 2.2 tons (V-1) and 13 tons (V-2), flying range of close to 300 kilometers (both) and payload of 1 ton (both). A total of over 15,000 V-1 and V-2s26 were fired at London and other targets. Unlike the V-1, which, due to their low flying speed, was effectively intercepted by British fighter aircraft and flak cannons, no effective means was found to counter the V-2. After the war, rocketry research was continued in the Soviet Union and the United States on the basis of German designs27. The main challenge facing rocket engineers in the 1950s was to develop rockets capable of carrying nuclear and thermonuclear
In 1969, when the United States declared its biological weapons program terminated, the following declaration was issued: "American programs related to bacteriological/biological weapons will be limited to research and development for defensive purposes (immunization, safety measures, etc.). This does not mean we will not perform any research into options of battlefield application of bacteriological/biological agents, as such research is required for the determination of necessary defensive action." 20 See, for example, V mire nauki (In the World of Science) magazine, No 6, 2005. 21 In the year 2004 draft budget, George W. Bush proposed allocating $6 billion for "quick preparation of effective vaccines and means to prevent the propagation of anthrax, botulism, Ebola fever and plague." 22 The following is an excerpt from the interview granted in 2007 by Colonel-General Vladimir Filippov, the Commander of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation: "The purpose of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is to counteract threats associated with terrorist acts, technogenic accidents and catastrophes. We possess modern and highly effective means of protection from most of those biological agents that are likely to be used. The existing Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction of 1972, unlike other international agreements on the prohibition of various types of weapons of mass destruction, bears largely a declarative character and does not contain a mechanism of its observance monitoring." 23 In 1931, Friedrich Zander was appointed chairman of the Jet Propulsion Research Group. 24 Thanks to the use of smokeless powder mix, Katyushas were difficult to detect; being inexpensive and easy to produce, they were manufactured in the thousands and outperformed their German rival. 25 The V is for Vergeltungswaffe (Vengeance Weapon). 26 Germany produced up to 30 V-2 rockets daily. 27 Despite the rockets and equipment for their manufacture being mostly captured by the Americans, the Soviet Union managed to mobilize thousands of Germans, who worked first at home and later in the Soviet Union and produced some ten V-2 rockets out of available parts and components. Later, the Soviet Union produced a copy of V-2, the P1, with an effective range of 300 kilometers. Further improvements led to P2 and P5M rockets (with effective ranges of 600 kilometers and 1200 kilometers, respectively), rockets capable of carrying nuclear warheads or carrying satellites or astronauts into orbit.
19

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

180

bombs to a distance of 13,000-15,000 kilometers, i.e., to reach the potential enemy. As a result of these efforts, rockets comprised of several stages, the uppermost carrying one or several nuclear warheads, had appeared. A later, more advanced version was equipped with multiple nuclear warheads containing three to ten independently targetable vehicles. An intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, is accelerated upon launch, then travels on a curve at a height of approximately 100 kilometers and reaches its designated overseas target in about 1-2 hours. The family of ICBMs contains both solid- and liquid-fueled vehicles. The United States' largest operational ICBM system, the Titan II, with a launch mass of 160 tons, could carry a 3-megaton charge. Russia's biggest ICBM, the -362 Voyevoda (known under its NATO classification as the SS-18 Satan) has a launch mass of 210 tons, including 180 tons of rocket fuel, is about 35 meters in length and can carry a payload of 9 tons. Recently, Russia produced a new modification of a strategic nuclear missile, TopolM. It is equipped with several supplementary engines and can change course en route, which makes intercepting it virtually impossible28. The Topol-M can reportedly carry three warheads. Simultaneously, an enhanced modification of the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) Bulava29 is nearing completion. It will also be capable of carrying multiple warheads. It is expected that, by 20152020, Russia's nuclear forces will be upgraded and able to effectively counterbalance (just as they do it today) the strategic nuclear arsenals of the United States and other countries. ICBMs can be launched from underground silos, from aircraft, trucks, railroad platforms30, submarines and ships. Collectively referred to as the "nuclear triad," means of delivering nuclear weapons include groundbased, sea-based and airborne missile systems. Cruise missiles low-flying, terrain-hugging vehicles have recently joined the list of the most powerful weapons. Cruise missiles are provided with special control systems with topographic electronic map of an area. One of their possible applications is dealing precision strikes with conventional warheads. Both subsonic and supersonic cruise missiles are in stock. It is very difficult to detect or intercept a cruise missile. Cruise missiles are equipped by strategic bombers and frontline strike fighters. They can also be used in naval battles. One of the critically important factors in modern warfare is a rocket's travel time to its target. This can be as short as several minutes if a missile is launched from a submarine that has managed to surreptitiously approach enemy shores or arrived there long before the start of the military action. A short travel time can also be achieved by launching a missile from an aircraft. Although it is believed that the authority of decision-making on retaliatory strike should belong to the high command, it is difficult to realize this idea in practice, given that events develop so quickly in modern warfare. Therefore, it will be required to delegate this power to missile complex operators or even to automated systems. It is obvious how dangerous such a situation may be31. Apart from the powerful strategic missiles, modern military arsenals include smaller vehicles that can be useful in a variety of applications. Due to their being convenient to use, relatively portable and highly controllable and for their option of en route course correction, small-scale rockets are widely used in antiaircraft and antitank systems, as well as a universal weapon for land, air and sea warfare32. A man armed with a guided rocket launcher can singlehandedly destroy a tank or shoot down an airplane. Handheld antitank rocket launchers with a caliber of 40-70 millimeters boast armor penetration performance of over 50 centimeters at a distance of 100 meters33. (The aimed range of antitank rockets with a laser targeting system of a millimeter-range radar can be as large as 5-8 kilometers). Some models of antitank rocket launchers are designed to send rockets to hit tanks from above, where they are more vulnerable. The performance efficiency of rocket launchers has increased drastically thanks to the use of modern targeting and aiming systems. One recent development is a multiple-rocket launcher with target-seeking heads. According to recent announcements, the Russian armed forces have acquired a new short-range missile launcher, the Iskander, which is reportedly capable of dealing high precision strikes at distances up to at least 300 (or 500) kilometers. The task is set to hit the target in one or two minutes and quickly change the site of deployment (a
28 The Topol-M system performance characteristics are hull length without nose warhead of 17.5 meters, diameter of 1.86 meters, launch mass of 47.1 tons, payload of 1,200 kilograms and range of 10,000 kilometers (http://www.plesetzk.ru/index.php?p=topol-m&d=doc/rn). Plans call for Russia's nuclear arsenals to include several hundred such missiles. Russia's other ICBM, the -18 Sotka, has a launch mass of 105.5 tons and carries multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles to a total of 3.3 megatons (Izvestia, November 14, 2006). 29 The Bulava system performance characteristics ( information taken in part from Izvestia, No 66/27107, 2006) are launch mass of approx. 37 tons, length of 12 meters, payload of 1,150 kilograms and six warheads. 30 Russia's last Military Railroad Missile Complex was dismantled in 2005. 31 There have been not one false alarm. Thus, on November 9, 1979, the computers of the three main strategic commanding posts of the U.S. Army gave information about a massive missile launch by the Soviet Union. The U.S. immediately began preparations for a retaliatory strike. Fortunately, the error was discovered in just a few minutes, before it was too late. 32 The main characteristics of the Fajr-5 rocket used by Hezbollah militants in the Israel-Lebanon conflict of July 2006 are launch mass of 915 kilograms, payload of 90 kilograms and range of 75 kilometers. In that war, the total number of rockets (all types combined) launched during one night reached as high as 200. 33 The RPG-29 Russian rocket launcher boasts armor penetration performance of 650 millimeters, an equipped weight of 11.5 kilograms, projectile weight of 4.5 kilograms and aimed range of 450 meters.

Chapter 12

181

hit-and-run attack). Another innovation in military hardware is the recently heralded new surface-to-air missile system the S-400 Triumph, which is capable of hitting targets at distances up to 400 kilometers and at heights up to 30 kilometers and even higher (the S-400 Triumph is slated to replace an earlier model, the S-300). Shown in the table below are basic data on the nuclear arsenals of Russia, the United States and China (according to SIPRI Yearbooks).
Type Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation January 2005 Name, Number of Deployment Range, according systems destart year thousand to NATO ployed km classification Bear-H6 32 1984 6.5-10.5 Bear-H16 Blackjack 32 14 79 Total SS-18 SS-19 SS-241 SS-25 SS-27 (Topol-M) Satan Stiletto Scalpel Sickle 110 140 15 306 36 613 96 96 232 1979 1980 1987 1985 1997 1978 11-15 10 10 10.5 10.5 6,5 9 10500-750 6500-750 10550 1550 1550 3200 4100 1100 840 150 306 40 1984 1987 6.5-10.5 10.5-13.2 Type of weapons/ yield, kilotons 6 air-to-surface cruise missiles AS15A, bombs 6 air-to-surface cruise missiles AS15A, bombs 12 air-to-surface cruise missiles AS15, bombs Warheads in stock

TU-95S6 TU-S16 Strategic bombers TU-1601

192 512 168

872

ICBM

Total
SLBM SS-N-181 SS-N-23 Total Stingray Skiff

2436
288 384

672 3980

Strategic offensive forces Total Strategic defensive Gorgon/ Gazelle forces; surface-to-air missiles
Nonstrategic forces TU-22M bomber Ground based fighter SU-24 Sea-based attack aircraft, TU22M SU-24 Total Sea-launched cruise missiles SS-N-9, SS-N-12, SS-N-19, SS-N21, SS-N-22 Antisubmarine systems SS-N-15, SS-N-16, torpedoes Grumble Backfire Fencer Backfire Fencer

100 1100 105 280 45 50

100 1100 AS-4 air-to-surface Short-range missile AS-16, bombs AS-4 air-tosurface, bombs

385

1730
240

210

Defensive and nonstrategic forces, total

Note: 1 TU-160 is a supersonic, variable-geometry heavy bomber with a payload of 24 tons.

Total

3380 7360

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

182

Nuclear Forces of the United States

Type Name January, 2005 Number deployed 56 Deploy- Range, ment start kilomeyear ters 1961 Type of Warweapheads in ons/yield, stock kilotons 16,000 Air-to-surface 450 cruise missiles 400 5150 Upgraded cruise missiles 5150 11,000 Bombs 200

Strategic bombers

B52H

Stratofortress

B-2 Total ICBM LGM-30G LGM-118A Total SLBM Mk-12 Mk-12 Mk-12A

Spirit Minuteman-III " " " " MX/Peacekeeper

16 72 50 150 300 10 48 288 no data " " 360 No data 320

1994 1970 1979 1986 1979

1050
150 150 750 100

13,000 13,000 11,000 7,400

3170 1170 3335 10300 6100

1150
UGM96A UGM133A Mk-4 Mk-5 Trident-1(C-4) Trident-1I(D-5) 288

1992 1990 1979 1984

7,400 7,400 2,500

6100 6475 0.3-170 15-150

1344 384

Total Nonstrategic forces Total of nonstrategic

2016
580 100

Bombs 61-3,-4,-10 Tomahawk land attack cruise missile

Notes: ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles; SLBM Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles; Aircraft range is given without in-flight refueling; In addition to the 72 deployed strategic bombers, another 42 are in stock for exercises or just in reserve.

Total

680 4896

Nuclear Forces of China

January 2005 Type Warplanes Land based missiles H-6 Q-5 DF-3A DF- 4 DF5 DF-21 NATO classification B-6 F-5 CSS - 2 CSS - 3 CSS - 4 CSS - 5 SLBM Julang 1 CSS N-3 Strategic weapons, total Nonstrategic weapons: Artillery, smallrange missiles 12 1986 1700 1200-300 kilotons 12 282 Several kilotons 120 Number deployed 120 30 40 12 20 48 Start of deployment year 1965 1970 1971 1980 1981 1985-86 Range, km 3100 400 2800 5500 13000 1800 Type of weapon, yield 1-3 bombs 1 bomb 13.3 megatons 13.3 megatons 14.5 megatons 1200-300 kilotons Warheads in stock 120 30 40 12 20 48

Total, approx.

400

Chapter 12

183

Other Types of Weapons Almost all kinds of weapons, first of all strategic ones, are in the process of modernization. The long-range missile-carrying bombers, nuclear submarines and missiles comprising the nuclear triad deserve to be called masterpieces of engineering science. Missile-carrying bombers, Russian or American, can carry conventional and cruise missiles to a total weight of up to 40 tons. Their characteristics are given in the tables above. The in-flight refueling option allows them to stay airborne as long as required. Strategic bombers with somewhat less impressive characteristics are available in the arsenals of Great Britain and France. Recent upgrades are directed at making aircraft invisible to radars and other means of detection. The "stealth" concept calls for making aircraft without seams, joints and sharp angles and the use of ideally matching parts, hydrocarbon fabrics and special low-reflecting coatings. The same approach is being introduced for military vessels and other hardware. Nuclear submarines can go as deep as 1,000 meters below the surface,34 and remain at such depths for up to several months without resurfacing. A modern submarine is a multilevel vessel fully equipped for a long self-contained voyage, with a crew of up to 130 people. The largest modern submarines have a tonnage of over 15,000 tons. The armory of a submarine usually includes 1015 or more missiles, each containing some ten independently targetable warheads. One submarine can lay waste to a whole continent, reducing its largest cities to rubble. Very many measures are taken to reduce submarine detectability to a minimum, including special hull coatings, noiseless propellers, radio silence, etc. The first nuclear-powered submarines were built in the 1950s, the Nautilus and George Washington in the United States and the K-3 in the Soviet Union. At the peak of the Cold War, there were around 350 various types of submarines in the arsenals of the Soviet Union, while the United States had 35% less. The number of submarines has been sharply reduced today35 (see Ch. 18, II, Disarmament). Modern submarines travel at the speed of up to 80 km/h, and they can lie on the bottom for up to one year virtually undetectable. Russia, the United States and China are able to build 1-2 new submarines a year each; the costs of producing such submarines is ranging between $1 billion and $2 billion36. China is actively building up its submarine fleet, and may well catch up with the United States or even leave it behind somewhere in the third decade of this century37. The Chinese submarine industry is largely based on designs and technologies obtained from Russia. Intense work is underway in the field of developing smaller submarines capable of coming close to the shore in shallow waters. Apart from other potential missions, such submarines can bring landing parties ashore38. Such small submarines can also be carried by larger ones. Other types of warplanes (apart from strategic bombers) also represent a significant part of military arsenals. Here I mean medium-range bombers, fighters, antisubmarine aircraft and other flying machines. Practically all of them are capable of carrying nuclear weapons. At the peak of the Cold War, the Soviet Union's air force alone had around 6,000 warplanes in stock. At present, military aviation stocks have been cut dramatically, but, nevertheless, in the next several years the world's leading powers plan to produce several thousands of such warplanes for commercial purposes only. Fifth-generation multipurpose fighter planes are coming onto the scene. They are supersonic, extremely maneuverable and hard to detect39. Their armament includes rockets and guns with automatic target tracking, so that a number of
34 At a depth of 1,000 meters, the outside pressure is as high as 100 atmospheres or 1,000 tons per square meter; i.e., each square meter of surface is bearing the weight of many railway cars. In addition, these submarines are designed to withstand possible impact loads from depth charges. Reports have leaked to the press about a submarine being developed with the depth range as large as 6 kilometers (Izvestia, January 14, 2009). 35 At any given moment of time, two out of the total fourteen U.S. nuclear submarines are undergoing maintenance while 8-10 are on combat duty; four of the latter are in the state of permanent combat readiness, i.e. are ready to launch missiles with nuclear warheads shortly after receiving appropriate order. In 2008 Russia had eleven submarines carrying ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads and during 2008 they performed ten expeditions. Great Britain and France each have four submarines of such class, and in 2008 each performed six expeditions. 36 Russia's newest submarine, the Yuri Dolgorukiy, launched in 2007, is the first in a series of five or six. It is armed with 12 Bulava-M missiles, each carrying ten reentry vehicles; the next submarines in the series will be equipped with 16 missiles each. 37 The issue of counterbalancing China in the Pacific is on the U.S. agenda today, with the focus of discussion on the need for allying with Japan and India. 38 Theoretically, it is possible to keep unmanned radio-guided submarines in close proximity to the potential enemy's shore; in the event of a war, it will be enough to send them a radio command to launch their nuclear missiles. 39 What is meant here is the plane's detectability by radar or infrared detection systems, including the plane itself, its engine, avionics, rocket launch, etc.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

184

targets can be tracked simultaneously. Vertical take-off is employed with some ship-based warplanes. Armored helicopters equipped with modern weapons are widely used. Unmanned warplanes are increasingly popular with the military. They are portable, cheaper and can remain airborne for several days, flying at heights of up to 15-20 kilometers collecting intelligence and dealing strikes. The United States plans to have up to 300 such warplanes in stock by 2010, and there are around ten different types of unmanned aircraft already available. Solar-powered aircraft have reportedly been constructed, and such vehicles can remain airborne for an unlimited time. To combat unmanned warplanes, unmanned fighters are being developed, and coming soon are unmanned helicopters capable of flying at the height of 10 kilometers or even higher. Lightweight flying machines capable of image transmittal from hard-to-reach spots are currently being developed. Such machines can be used as a soldier's personal equipment and may be particularly useful in urban combat. Other examples of innovations in flying machine design and engineering include various aircraft/helicopter hybrids and surface-effect vehicles. High load capacity military transport aircraft are acquiring greater importance, as it is often needed to send troops to faraway spots on the globe. The navies of the great world powers comprise nuclear-powered surface vessels, destroyers and other types of battleships armed with both conventional rockets and cruise missiles40. In the U.S. Navy, an especially significant role belongs to aircraft carriers, which are moved into areas of potential military actions. At the moment, the US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers with a tonnage of up to 80,000-90,000 tons. Ten of these aircraft carriers are nuclearpowered. Each aircraft carrier has a crew of up to 5,500 men and holds up to 80-100 aircraft. A new type of medium-tonnage destroyers, DD(X), is reportedly hard to detect and boasts very great firepower, including high-accuracy rockets specially designed for military actions in coastal areas. The Russian Federation has one aircraft-carrying cruiser, the Admiral Kuznetsov41. There used to be another four cruisers carrying vertical takeoff aircraft, but they did not last long and were written off. Already in the inventory are hovercraft vehicles capable of carrying loads up to 100 tons for hundreds of kilometers at a speed of up to 75 kilometers per hour. Until recently tanks were the most powerful of ground warfare weapons. Their battlefield lifetime may be as short as several dozen minutes; therefore, it is most important to hit the enemy first. A modern tank is capable of covering a distance of up to 500 kilometers without refueling at a speed of 70 kilometers per hour (and in the near future, tank speed may be increased to 100 kilometers per hour). "Quick and daring, tanks penetrate deep into enemy echelons, playing havoc and disrupting the command and control of the enemy troops," according to the Tank Battle Tactics Textbook, Soviet Union, 1935. A modern tank is equipped with a 120- to 140-millimeter cannon, machine guns and rockets with a guaranteed firing accuracy of 99% within a range of 5 kilometers. The cannon tower position remains stable during the tank's motion thanks to a special damper. The cannon barrel can be used as a missile launcher. A modern tank can hit flying targets as well. It can also overcome water obstacles. A number of implements, such as reactive armor42 and antimissiles, are used to protect a modern tank from various antitank weapons, such as shaped charges, engineheat-sensing rockets, etc.43 The newest tanks are equipped with special systems to counteract chemical and biological weapons (the probability of use of these weapons is considered to be rather high). Automatic control systems are becoming increasingly sophisticated, and plans are made to reduce the manning requirement from current two or three persons to one. A panoramic multisensor system is being designed for simultaneous detection and tracking of 15-20 targets. The weight of most modern tanks varies between 40 and 60 tons, and designers are working to reduce it to 20-30 tons in order to increase air transportability. Successful tank operation is possible only in close interaction with reconnaissance and air power, which provide information on the enemy's location. In the not-so-distant past, Soviet tanks, such as the T-34 and T-72, were enormously popular, and 35,000-40,000 of each were produced. Russian-made tanks are present in the military arsenals of more than 30 countries. By the Cold War's end in the 1980s, the Soviet Union's Armed Forces had approximately 65,000 tanks. Russia's newest tanks, T-90 and T-95, are much better than the older models. Artillery has come a long way in its development from smooth-barreled to rifled, long-range, rapid-fire, recoilless... Guns and cannons have been continually modernized to boost their firing power, mobility and serviceability. Automatic cannons, flak cannons, mine throwers and large-caliber coastal-artillery installations have appeared. Projectiles have also seen improvement: Some of the modern varieties boast trajectorycorrection systems and auxiliary jet engines. Other developments in this field include projectiles for remote mining and fuel-air explosive shells or vacuum bombs. Detonation of such a bomb creates a deadly pressure
The Soviet Union's Navy comprised a total of about 1,000 surface battleships and battle boats. In addition to support vessels of various types. As of the end of 2008, the United States had 280 battleships (the corresponding number for 1987 was approximately 600), Russia had 215 battleships and China had 203 battleships. 42 A variant of dynamic protection is a box filled with plastic explosive which detonates on the impact and "screens off" the crew. 43 Simple antitank guns and Molotov cocktails were widely and effectively used during Word War II. Modern antitank weapons are handheld rocket launchers, including those with extra rocket specially designed to neutralize dynamic protection.
40 41

Chapter 12

185

drop within a volume of hundreds of cubic meters. A test explosion of a 13-ton vacuum bomb performed in Russia in the fall of 2007 led to conclude that the development of this kind of bomb will help create weapons comparable in power with nuclear weapons, but free from surface and atmospheric pollution. One of history's largest cannons, Big Bertha, was designed and produced by the Germans during World War I. Its barrel was 34 meters long, it weighed 125 tons and was able to send a 120-kilogram projectile a distance of up to 130 kilometers. Later, in the 1930s, similar cannons were built with a firing range of 165 kilometers44. Already in that time, the idea was announced to provide projectiles with jet engines. Progress in the laser technology translates into progress in aiming and targeting systems, as well as blinding laser weapons, or dazzlers. Active research work is underway in the United States aimed at creating powerful laser radiation emitters that could be used in missile defense or to knock down satellites and aircraft. Laser weapons are inertia-free and support continuous aiming. Therefore, there are reasons to expect that the hulls of missiles and warplanes will be made resistant to laser radiation by means of applying, for example, reflective or refractory coatings45. Firearms are clear leaders in terms of numbers produced: Combined annual production output is measured in the tens of millions of units46. Since the last world war, mostly automatic rifles with a rate of fire of 400-600 (sometimes 1,800 and more) shots per minutes have been in use. The Soviet-designed Kalashnikov has become most widespread due to its very high reliability. Kalashnikovs are produced in many countries, and the total number to have been produced to date is reportedly somewhere around 100 million. Firearms differ in caliber and aiming systems: In addition to optical sights, laser and infrared targeting systems are being increasingly employed in modern firearms. With the help of a small pyrotechnic charge put inside a bullet's base, a tracer-bullet effect is achieved. A tracer bullet is visible with the naked eye along its trajectory so that the shooter can make prompt aiming corrections. Another type of "smart bullet" emits smoke upon impact; the smoke is visible to the shooter and allows him to adjust fire. It is believed that firearms represent the dominant type of weapons used in more than 90% of armed conflicts. Systems are being developed to allow targeting to be made from a shelter so that the shooter need not take the risk of coming under enemy fire. Automatic rifles with underbarrel grenade launchers continue our list of modern sophisticated firearms. Research is underway to develop grenades that will explode at a preset distance for example, immediately as they fly past the enemy's defensive line. Arsenals for special forces include noiseless guns and underwater guns. A modern sniper rifle, especially a large-caliber one, allows for aimed fire within a range of over 1 kilometer. Machine-guns of various types are widely used as an infantry weapon as well as installed on tanks, aircraft and battleships. Large-caliber machine-guns can have a rate of fire as high as up to 1,000 shots per minute and an effective range of about 2 kilometers. Large-caliber machine-guns are often used for hitting airborne targets. According to US press reports, the equipment of the infantryman's poised to undergo drastic changes in the near future. Under development is a sophisticated helmet for foot soldiers containing a built-in minicomputer (in addition to a main computer in a backpack), nightvision device, sensors warning of chemical or bacteriological attack, and a communicator to stay in touch with the command and send intelligence. Another innovation designed to make the soldier's life more pleasant is a climate-controlled uniform. What will definitely gladden soldiers of the future regarding their equipment is the weight: It will be half that of a modern-day full combat set. Such a dramatic reduction will be achieved primarily because sleeping bags, warm clothes, chemicalprotection suits and other special equipment will no longer be needed. In addition, the equipment of the future soldier will have built-in sensors to monitor blood pressure, pulse and body temperature. The standard firearm will be a two-barrel piece comprising a 5.56-mm-caliber automatic rifle and a 20-mm grenade launcher. Modern flamethrowers can be carried by infantrymen as well as installed on tanks or other vehicles. Handheld flamethrowers have 20-liter tanks filled with flammable liquid, and heavier apparatuses may incorporate tanks of many hundreds of liters. The effective range of a flamethrower is several tens of meters. Other innovative types of weapons. Military specialists are focusing their efforts on achieving maximum possible use of computers and other sophisticated data processing and storage systems. The task has been set to minimize human involvement in the basic combat sequence: Reconnaissance-target detection-target hitting. It is possible that portable minitanks with artificial intelligence and high combat efficiency that are remotely controlled or even capable of independent decision-making will be widely used in the future (in a certain sense, this
44 The German engineers Max Valier and Hermann Oberth once proposed designing a cannon capable of throwing a 1.2-meter-diameter projectile to the Moon. This would require its barrel to be 900 meters long, and the cannon itself would have to be installed at a height of about 5 kilometers above sea level. Here it is appropriate to recall that the idea of using cannons for putting satellites into orbit was first expressed by Isaac Newton back in the 17th century. 45 Information has leaked to the press about the U.S. plans to commission warplanes carrying laser cannons by 2012, and possibly to deploy laser weapons on orbiting satellites by year 2020. 46 There are 640 million pieces of firearms in the world today, in other words; that is, there is one gun for every ten inhabitants of the planet, and the annually produced 12 billion cartridges are enough to kill each one twice.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

186

would be a kind of man-tank hybrid). Already today remotely controlled apparatuses are used for demining. Achievements in nanotechnology will probably make it possible to make compact and difficult-to-detect spying devices that can be sent into the enemy's position. Even such eccentric ideas as using insects as carriers of spying devices or infectious germs are being considered. One of the main areas of military science is development of high-precision projectiles, bombs and rockets for hitting targets at various distances. High-precision and powerful conventional weapons may push nuclear weapons to the sidelines. Research is underway aimed at developing weapons based on new physical principles, specifically weapons that could be effective against militants entrenched in a village or a town; reports have spread about emitters of microwave radiation, which causes internal bodily overheating, rendering affected people temporarily inactive47. High-density pulses of ultrahigh-frequency radiation can destroy microcircuits in an enemy's control systems. Another area of weapons research is aimed at creating effective nonlethal weapons. Such weapons include tranquilizers, low-frequency vibration emitters (infrasound48 and laxative49 cannons) and ultracaustic50 and ultraadhesive substances. In the United States, research in this area is performed at the Institute for Nonlethal Defense Technologies. The use of genetically engineered microorganisms opens new opportunities for destroying enemy hardware. It appears that genetic engineering can create microbes capable of digesting almost all sorts of materials, including metals, hydrocarbons, cellulose, industrial chemicals, etc. With the help of such organisms, it is possible to drastically accelerate such processes as rusting or aging of materials: Processes that normally take months or years will take only several tens of hours. The new products that may be used in warfare are called GAMAs, or Genetically Engineered Antimaterial Agents. The United States is probably the leader in their development and production at the moment. The appearance of ICBMs stimulated the development of space-based observation and detection systems. Such systems are installed on satellites. Bombs aimed with the help of satellites were used in the Afghan and Iraq wars. The United States spends $15 billion or $20 billion on military space programs, which amounts to 90% of global spending on such programs. Being investigated are possibilities for using space vehicles not only for reconnaissance and communication, but for active military actions. One such application is destroying an enemy's satellites51. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union exploded, just for the sake of experiment, a number of nuclear bombs in near space that created an artificial "radiation belt" dangerous for the electronic equipment of satellites, this "belt" remaining active for quite a long time. Such explosions may disrupt the work of various surface facilities as well. In that time, the Soviet Union was developing a military space station, Almaz-Salyut, which was to have been manned and tasked to watch and, if necessary, to knock down enemy satellites and rockets52. There are publications about a U.S. project of developing orbiting bomber capable of delivering payloads to distances up to 17,000 kilometers. Its designed speed will be some 8 times the speed of sound. Research is being performed into methods of influencing the environment for military purposes, such as causing artificial earthquakes or volcano eruptions by means of nuclear explosions, floods, tsunamis53, etc. There is a special program called the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program, or HAARP. Intentional pollution of enemy territory can also be achieved though acts of sabotage at nuclear power plants, chemical plants, etc54. A number of other areas research into which may lead to the creation of new killing or injury systems are discussed in the next chapter. As can easily be seen, in addition to the creation of various sophisticated machines and appliances (for example, nuclear or laser), as well as chemical and biological weapons, activity has been underway aimed at having other discoveries and natural phenomena employed for the industry of war.
47 The following is an excerpt from a recent press report heralding the use of a new type of weapon ADS or Active Denial System (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_Denial_System) in Iraq: "A microwave cannon emits high intensity flux of electromagnetic radiation to a distance of about 1 kilometer. Within its effective range, the radiation causes acute pain as blood and other body liquids start boiling 0.3 mm under the skin. It is only needed to step out of the area covered by the weapon's effect for the pain to immediately stop." 48 Low frequency vibrations (http://www.multi-science.co.uk/lowfreq.htm) (7-8 Hz and some other frequencies) may cause pain and pathology in the brain and other organs. 49 Causing rectal relaxation. 50 For example, substances with stable and strong caustic odor. 51 Soviet interceptor satellites were tested back in 1960-1980s. Recently, in 2007, the Chinese knocked down their own satellite with a multistage rocket launched from the ground. The U.S. performed experiments of "blinding" a satellite by a surface-based laser. 52 See http://www.mai.ru/colleges/war/ballist/books/Afanasiev-Un/aib1/text/11.htm 53 "Hypothetical possibilities gave been considered of using unusually strong hydrogen bombs (1,000-10,000 megatons). The weight of such bombs would range from 50 to 500 tons; they could be delivered beforehand by sea to the ports of a potential enemy state. Such bombs would lay waste to territories with a radius of up to 200-300 kilometers and more and could generate tsunamis reaching to ports and cities within thousands of kilometers" (Anatoly Melnik, http://zhurnal.lib.ru/m/melxnik_anatolij_antonowich/bomba-idoc.shtml). 54 Such methods are fraught with most devastating global consequences, up to a global disaster.

Chapter 12

187

One peculiar direction of this field of research is the training of dolphins and other animals for military use. During the Cold War, work was underway in the United States and the Soviet Union aimed at training dolphins to detect mines, defend military bases and attack enemy vessels55. Alternatively, dolphins can be trained to detect leaks in underwater gas pipelines and serve other peaceful missions. Information war. The term "information war" acquired new meaning in the last couple of decades with the development of information technologies and the increasing role of information in state management and the military sphere. In its modern meaning, the term covers much more than just propaganda and manipulation of public consciousness (see Chapter 3). The "Joint Doctrine for Information Operations" adopted in 1998 specifically reads that "information war is a comprehensive influence on the adversary's state and military management systems that would completely paralyze state infrastructures." Information war includes psychological operations aimed against personnel and decision-makers, intrusion into the adversary's control systems (cyberwar56), misinformation, targeted influence on people's consciousness all measures that can disrupt operation of life-support systems, factories, energy systems and other vital infrastructure. The Chinese concept of information war incorporates specific Chinese ideas of warfare, with the main accent being on deceit and searching for asymmetric advantages over the adversary. Information war is defined as "transition from the industrial epoch's mechanized warfare to the war of decisions and style of governance, war for knowledge and war of intellect." In 2000, Russia adopted an "Information Security Doctrine" that sets the task of ensuring information security for individuals, groups and communities. Fortifications. The first examples of fortifications were ramparts that surrounded ancient towns and settlements to protect them from enemy attacks. Having first appeared in time immemorial, earthen fortifications were widely used in World War II and are applicable for modern-day warfare57. Roman walls, an important part of the Roman Empire's defenses, were built of stone and earth and were several meters high. To defend the empire from barbarian attacks, Roman walls were erected at strategic locations (the present territory of Great Britain, Germany and Romania) and were guarded by many-thousand-strong armies. Roman walls extended for many kilometers, huge ditches were dug along the walls and watchtowers were erected at regular intervals. In approximately the same epoch, similar fortifications were built in the Kerch Peninsula and in a number of other locations. A special place in the history of fortifications belongs to the Great Wall of China (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Wall_of_China), the construction of which was started in the 3rd century BC to protect China from nomadic attacks coming form the northwest; since then, the wall was upgraded many times over the next 2,000 years. The wall is over 6 meters high and 6,700 kilometers long (In Chinese the wall is called 'Wan-Li Qang-Qeng' which means 10000-Li Long Wall ). The recently built walls are the Berlin Wall, the wall between the South and the North Koreas and the wall enclosing part of the Israeli territory. In the 20th century, imposing fortifications of modern materials and built using modern construction equipment appeared in Europe. Examples of such include the Maginot Line (France), Siegfried Line (Germany) and Atlantic Wall and Mannerheim Line in Finland. The Mannerheim Line played a significant role in the Winter War (also known as the Soviet-Finnish War) of 1939-1940. The Mannerheim Line was a 135kilometer-long and 90-kilometer-deep system of fortifications. Concrete facilities were connected with each other by underpasses, and there were barbed wire fences, mine fields, antitank hedgehogs, ditches, etc. In the second half of the 20th century, the opposing superpowers built deep underground facilities, missile silos, huge shelters to accommodate nuclear plants and submarine bases, underground cities connected by
"Dolphins were on permanent duty at the Sevastopol Harbor entrance. If they noticed a trespasser, they reported to the operator and, if given an order, could carry out a combat mission on their own. Special face masks with attached spears were designed for that purpose" (Izvestia, April 17, 2007). 56 The following is an excerpt from the speech of a NATO functionary: "A cyber war can be quite effective due to the low risk for the attacking side, low cost, high destructive effect and the possibility of quick and easy deployment of the 'weapon' at any spot on the globe. It is virtually impossible to effectively counteract a properly targeted and massive cyberattack against an online infrastructure." Plans call for the U.S. to establish a special Digital Force by 2010. 57 The Brest Fortress resisted enemy attacks for a whole month in 1941.
55

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

188

strong enough to protect people from a nuclear explosion (such doors can be seen in many metro stations). For people to survive in bomb shelters it is necessary to create reserves of food and other staple items for such 'underground cities' to last for several decades until when radioactive pollution of the earth's surface drops to a tolerable level. According to information published in the press, modern underground command points have spring pads to protect equipment in the event of a nuclear explosion on the surface58. Meanwhile, special warheads capable of destroying thick layers of concrete or natural rock have been designed. They are called cavitation bombs or bunker busters. (As the 2006 events in Lebanon demonstrated, it is difficult for civilian population to hide from modern bomb strikes 59). Air and missile defense (AMD) systems are being developed as well. In the near future, AMDs are expected to be able to intercept a limited number of missiles Chair on the Place des Naperhaps a few dozen. The cost of the AMD program is estimated at $300 billion-400 Broken tions in Geneva It symbolizes opbillion. Antiballistic missiles (ABMs) are installed to protect vitally important faciliposition to land mines ties. These missiles are targeted with the help of surface-based and orbiting tracking stations. However, none of the existing defensive systems can ensure reliable protection for cities from chemical, bacteriological or nuclear attack (especially if weapons of mass destruction happen to be used by terrorists). Equally dangerous are the dirty nuclear bombs. Unfortunately, it is not possible to establish a 100% reliable system to prevent trafficking in or local fabrication or assemblage of weapons of mass destruction. Given the abundance of destructive weapons and sophisticated techniques for manipulating consciousness to train suicide bombers, a comprehensive and reliable security system would require thorough and constant monitoring of many (maybe all?) people. It is not clear at this point whether such a system is technically possible or how it would blend with the principles of democracy. As things stand today, the gap between the efficiency of offensive weapons and that of defensive systems is only widening. Now for a few words about personal protective equipment and gear, which has seen a dramatic improvement with the invention of new materials. Light and strong bulletproof vests have replaced heavy shields and suits of armor. Modern bulletproof vests can be worn under ordinary clothes, including by civilians. It is possible that more breakthroughs will occur in this field as new materials appear, including those manufactured with the help of nanotechnologies. Mines. Land mines are classified as an "inhumane weapon" (although the word "humane" is hardly applicable to any weapon). The purpose of mines is to hamper the advance of enemy troops in certain directions. Demining efforts are countered by modern mining methods, including from helicopters or aircraft or with artillery shells. Modern mines are equipped with built-in microprocessors transmitting information about enemy location and numbers and receiving commands. Such "smart mines" can be temporarily switched off, for example, to allow own troops to pass. Mines capable of moving and developing their own tactic of behavior are in development. Mines are often abandoned, remaining for years in former conflict areas endangering the civilian population. According to statistics, approximately 20,000 people are killed around the world (mostly in Afghanistan, Angola, Cambodia and Yugoslavia) every year by mine explosions. The combined total stockpile of mines is estimated at 230 million, of which 120 million are planted within the territories of 70 countries. The "Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Antipersonnel Mines and on Their Destruction" was signed in Canada in 1997. The convention particularly called for providing each mine to be produced in the next 10 years with a self-destruction system that would go off a certain time after the mine is planted. The majority of countries pledged to stop the production and use of antipersonnel mines; however, some countries refrained from signing the convention, including the United States, the Russian Federation, China, Israel and a number more. Russia was motivated by the need to defend its long land border. The First Review Conference of the States Parties to the "Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Antipersonnel Mines and on Their Destruction" took place in 2004. By that time the convention had been joined by 144 states, and a considerable reduction was achieved in world production of antipersonnel mines, with the United States, Russia and China introducing a ban on dissemination of this type of weapon. Thirty-seven million were destroyed in warehouses. Another problem is demining sea and river floors, with the Baltic Sea alone harboring more than 50,000 mines left from World War Two.

58 The

command point of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is under a 600-meter-thick layer of granite and occupies an area of about two hectares. 59 The author of this book has personal experience of hiding in bomb shelters during Nazi bombings of Moscow in 1941. At the time, bomb shelters could offer a good chance for survival.

Chapter 12

189

Arms trade. The arms trade turnover on the world market plummeted by almost 50% following the end of the Cold War, down from approximately $40 billion ($60 billion, according to other sources) as of the mid-1990s; however, in the last few years, it rose again to exceed $35 billion (according to SIPRI). During the period from 1999 to 2004, the United States and Russia each contributed approximately 30% of supplies to the world weapons market. In the last few years, Russia has climbed to the top position, primarily thanks to sales of its state-of-the-art aircraft and battleships. The market shares of France, Great Britain and Germany are between 5 and 9% each. Other weapons sellers on the world market are China, Ukraine and Israel. The United States supplies weapons mostly to Taiwan, Egypt, Great Britain, Greece, Turkey and Japan, while Russia's main clients are China and India and Iran. China is buying the newest weapon samples with the aim of organizing its own production. At one time, Russia supplied many weapons to Iraq, a total of approximately $30 billion over the period from 1958 to 1990. Recently, Russia signed contacts with Venezuela to supply weapons worth a total of $3 billion60. The newest weapons are regularly presented at specialized shows and fairs. Most popular with buyers on the weapons market are aircraft, tanks, submarines, antimissile systems and Kalashnikovs. In addition to the countries listed above, Latin American countries, among others, are seeking to modernize their military arsenals. Not many countries are able to maintain weapons research and development on a sufficiently high level; for the vast majority of countries, it is easier to buy weapons than to develop them. As long as the world is divided, there are state borders and armies and there is a threat of military conflicts, it will be difficult to close the weapons market. In addition to making a profit, the sale of weapons gives the opportunity to support friendly regimes and assert one's influence in the world. The money obtained from weapons sales is mostly used to finance new developments in military industry. During the Cold War, each of the opposing superpowers armed its allies, with arms very often supplied free or on credit. Debts owed by allies of the former Soviet Union allies for weapons supplied in that time are measured in tens of billions of dollars. The UN is taking measures to prevent weapons supplies to the areas of military conflicts (Rwanda, Liberia and Somalia), as well as to various insurgent and terrorist organizations. In 2004, there were 23 international embargoes in effect imposed by the UN or certain groups of countries. Arms smuggling, however, is unending and represents a channel for weapons proliferation throughout the world. According to experts, arms smuggling amounts to 5-10% of legal exports, which translates into $1 billion to $2 billion a year; in times of conflict escalation, the illegal arms market soars up to $5 billion a year. There are a number of international treaties in effect, including the EU "Code of Conduct in Arms Exports," aimed at restricting proliferation of weapons of mass destruction technologies, weapons of mass destruction delivery systems and dual-purpose technologies. Nevertheless, the restricted knowledge has been sold or otherwise released to ineligible countries or regimes several times in recent history. The great powers committed dubious acts driven by political or opportunistic motives. The United States helped Iraq in organizing chemical-weapons production and probably shared some biological weapons secrets, the Soviet Union helped China in developing nuclear technologies and there have been a number of other examples61. In concluding this chapter, I would like to note that all (or almost all) of the weapons described above are sometimes collectively referred to as firearms. However, when speaking of protracted confrontations that can last for tens or even hundreds of years, other factors need to be taken into account. In the longer run, the winner may be the country where the population grows faster or is already much larger. Playing a part in victory in such a longstanding opposition is the presence of ideology, which turns people into zombies and justifies huge losses of one's own population. It is sufficient to review the history of conflicts in the Islamic World, the situation in Kosovo and demographic trends in certain diasporas in Western countries to understand that in the longer run victory may be not for those who are in possession of the best weapons62. Every nation and every state is obviously interested in stable development for a time longer than just the next 5-10 years; therefore, the factors outlined above should not be ignored.

60 According to available information, Russia supplied its foreign customers with weapons and military equipment to the total of $8.35 billion in 2008. Orders in the pipeline are worth over $25 billion. Russia's defense industry currently gives employ to 2.5-3 million people or some 20% of the total number of people employed in the industry in Russia today. Taking into account the fact that most of the military orders are denominated in U.S. dollars, the recent fall of the ruble to the dollar works to boost profit margin for Russia's military exports. 61 North Korea has supplied sensitive equipment to Iran and other countries. John Bolton, US undersecretary of state for arms control, said that North Korea is "the world's foremost peddler of ballistic-missile-related equipment, components, materials, and technical expertise." China has sold missiles to Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and other countries, and the United States is supplying SLBM to Great Britain. 62 It is believed by some that the laws and democratic principles adopted and practiced in the Western world do not permit taking decisive measures to stop the immigration and "creeping expansion" of Muslims, while at the same time Islamist ideology allows its apologists to use such practice as a method of conquest.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

190

Naturally, the most effective defensive strategy for the Western countries will be propagandization of Western democracy and way of life and dissemination of a Western mindset, not just weapons development and purely military or police actions. No less important is stimulation of the birth rate and population growth. Speaking of the need to transform the consciousness of large masses of people, we are coming close to a more general question, that of global security, the determining role in which also belongs to ideology, mindset and upbringing. These issues are discussed in other chapters of this book.

Chapter 13

191

Chapter 13

The Possibilities and Threats of New Technologies In the next few decades, research in some rapidly developing fields of science may result, instead of means for peace and prosperity, in the production of new weapons of mass destruction. This may happen in such areas as nanotechnology, robotics (the development of artificial intelligence) and genetic engineering. It is likely that there will be no need for large-scale (state-run) production, as is the case for nuclear and other kinds of weapons of mass destruction, to produce such armaments. Controlling the proliferation of new means of destruction may turn out to be a very complicated task.

his chapter is devoted to discussing achievements in and predictions related to rapidly developing fields of science and technology, such as nanotechnology, robotics and genetic engineering.

Nanotechnology Nanorobots are hypothetical machines with sizes as small as several hundred nanometers (the prefix "nano" comes from the Greek word nanos, meaning "dwarf"; 1 nanometer is 10-9 m), the development of which has recently started. (For comparison, a the diameter of a human hair is 80,000 nanometers and the size of modern microchips is tens of nanometers). Like ordinary robots, nanorobots will be of various designs and have different spheres of application, being able to move, performing mechanical and other types of operations and being controlled either remotely or with the help of a built-in microprocessor. Nanorobots will be particularly useful for the creation of new substances and assemblage of sophisticated mechanisms, this type of robots being referred to as "assemblers" or "replicators." Nanorobots can also be programmed for utilization or elimination of hazardous materials. The ultimate success in this area would be the creation of nanorobots capable of making copies of themselves, i.e., capable of reproduction. It is believed that in this century nanotechnologies may create a revolution similar in scale and significance to the one created by computers in the field of information in the 20th century. The idea that matter can be controlled on the submolecular level was first expressed back in 1959 by Nobel Prize winner Richard Feynman. Later, in the 1980s, devices came into being capable of handling a single atom; for example, they could literally take an atom and move it to a new location. Thus, for example, there has been a segmented, swinging mechanism made of several DNA chains that was chemically controlled and could bend back and forth, as well as were nanotransistors of only a few atoms. Specialists in the area have learned to write the names and logos of companies using atoms instead of paint. One of the newest directions of work is the construction of nanotubes1. Nanotechnology is receiving huge investments, and many companies are involved2. Nanorobots could work inside human organisms to clear them of cancer cells or cholesterol plaques, deliver medicines precisely to where they are needed, they could be programmed to analyze and correct flaws in cells and tissues, monitor tear and wear of the organs and do regular maintenance and service. While working on the restoration of damaged tissues, nanorobots could erect 'nanoscaffolds' of nanofibers that would dissolve after the work is complete. There are reasons to hope that such organism-restoration technologies will be put to use already in the foreseeable future. As DNA replicates itself using simple molecules from a nutrient solution as building material, nanorobots would be able to make copies of themselves or other objects according to a program. Almost anything could be used as raw material, from fallen leaves to sea water, the nanorobot using its own intelligence to find what it needs and use it appropriately. They will reproduce, grow, learn and perform other functions, needing only the appropriate software and the simplest building materials. The major problems

1 Carbon nanotubes are cylindrical structures, ten or several tens of nanometers in diameter and up to several centimeters in length. Their specific conductivity is comparable with that of metals while they can support current densities an order of magnitude higher than metals can.

Schematic view of a nanotube. The US Congress has allocated nearly $4 billion (in addition to private investments) to finance nanotechnology projects for the next four years. Russia has also announced a national five-year program in this area beginning in 2007, with a budget of over $1 billion. It is believed that nanotechnologies will open new horizons everywhere, from agriculture to space research. It is predicted that products fabricated with the use of nanotechnology would sell around $1 trillion annually by 2010.
2

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

3

192

and cost will be related to their design and software development, which may take quite a time . There is a lot in common between such robots and living organisms: They reproduce, grow, give birth to new generations all thanks to their program and out of the available materials food, water, heat and air4.
It is well known that all objects in the Universe are composed of atoms (such as carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, etc.); it is the order in which these atoms are organized and connected to each other that determines the matter's type and properties. In other words, the diversity of nature stems from the diversity of atomic combinations. By changing the order of atoms nature creates various substances. It would be extremely tempting to master the technique of changing atomic arrangement. If we manage that we will be able to get everything we could wish from simple and cheap materials. Now mankind is at the doorstep of a breakthrough that is without a precedent in the history of human civilization.

These tiny machines (or creatures?), nanorobots, can be easily transported over long distances in the form of dust clouds or like locusts, and can be used for both peaceful (like cleaning our planet of pollutants) and destructive purposes5. During the development and fabrication of new materials such important mechanical properties as hardness, strength, plasticity and yield point can improve drastically when we shift from macro- to microscopic objects. It may be possible to teach nanorobots to produce foods, and we will no longer need to grow plants or breed animals, or to assemble huge mechanical structures under a program and using prescribed materials. Much success has already been achieved on the way of microminiaturization. Microscopic medical instruments have found application in surgery, and serially produced microscopic actuators, sensors and other micromechanisms are widely employed in many areas. Doctors will soon begin using special diagnostic micropills with miniature cameras that will take hundreds of photographs inside a patient's body. Robots capable of coordinated activity, i.e., working as a team, are expected to appear soon6. In the future, nanotechnology is poised to make a breakthrough to making devices with sizes on the atomic scale7. However, as happens all too often, scientific breakthroughs may have negative consequences. Let us imagine a situation in which a malfunction occurs in a system designed for industrial waste disposal and the system begins to destroy useful substances in the biosphere that are essential for human life. A nanorobot's ability to self-replicate may be particularly dangerous in such a situation. Self-replicating nanorobots that have been deliberately programmed for destruction or have spun out of control due to a program glitch or malfunction may become a very real threat to life on the planet. For example, nanorobots programmed to destroy protein organisms will turn the Earth's biosphere into a lifeless mass of nanomachines, a gray goo. Substances detrimental for the human organism, such as sterilizing agents, may also possibly be fabricated, and their intentional or accidental release might have grave consequences. Nanotechnologies may also lead to the creation of selective weapons targeted at certain ethnic groups or geographical areas. Massive application of such weapons would not even require sophisticated production facilities or large financial allocations. A single device will be self-sufficient and have the potential to reproduce and perfect itself according to
3 Prizes have been instituted for the creation of a nanorobot's hand and a nanocomputer. The 'hand' should be not bigger than 100 cubic nanometers in volume and should perform controlled displacement and mating of molecules and atoms. The 'nanocomputer' should be less than 50 cubic nanometers in volume and has sufficient calculating power for summation of any pairs of 8-bit binary numbers. 4 During cell division in plant or animal tissues molecules are taken from out of Brownian chaos and set in place within the double helix and the DNA under construction is bombarded by molecules, each waiting for its turn to be set in its proper location. It is even possible to say that every living cell is a nanorobot, with its DNA being the controlling computer. Such amazingly complicated self-organization engineered by the nature and present in the millions of plant and animal species cannot but arouse admiration, especially given that it appeared at the very start of evolution, at the moment when dead matter turned into living matter. 5 The following is an excerpt from English philosopher Nick Bostrom: "Nanotechnology would enable the construction of self-replicating machines on the molecular scale, a kind of mechanical bacteria, that could feed on organic matter and cause the extinction of intelligent life on Earth. Technology of creating destructive nanorobots appears to be simpler than that of creating effective protection from such nanoattacks kind of a global-scale nano-immune system. Each side will be tempted to deal the fist strike." 6 Work is currently in progress on developing such devices. With modern technologies, it will be possible to make them of the size of a tennis ball, and they may be very useful for applications in space, for example, exploring caves on Mars. 7 Nanocrystalline coatings are already applied onto critical structures to enhance their thermal resistance, durability and other important properties. Carbon tubes (carbon nanotubes) a nanometer wide and several dozens of micrometers long have been created that are remarkable in that their electrical conductivity is two orders of magnitude higher than that of copper. It is interesting to note that nanostructures sometimes unexpectedly display selforganization properties. Such properties, in combination with their miniature dimensions, make nanostructures reminiscent of organic substances. Nanotechnologies open new horizons for information systems as well. For example, data storage on an atomic level will allow storage capacity to be increased by several orders of magnitude.

Chapter 13

193

a program. In the event of a leak of the relevant knowledge, a small group of people or even a lone terrorist would be able to produce and launch a killer device. Robotics. Artificial Intelligence "Intelligent machines" are a rapidly developing industry. In the next few decades, computers are predicted to become millions of times more powerful than they are today. It will then be possible to make machines that are more effective than people in most kinds of mental work, and it will be logical to use them to resolve the most challenging problems in the economy, politics, social sphere and many other fields. Many critical tasks in science, defense and other important areas are already assigned to machines, and there are many full-cycle productions serviced by a few workers. A good example is the automobile industry. Home service robots are also undergoing quick modernization. The latest models of household robots boast spatial orientation and obstacle avoidance and are voice controlled, some even having facial expressions8. Robots outwardly resembling humans, i.e., Computer Evolution with two feet and two hands, walking and doing things in a "human" manner, are in the process of being designed. Competitive races of robots are no longer a novelty. Robotic surgical assistants are capable of taking a surgeon's instructions given orally during operation and give required instruments to him or her9. Another remarkable achievement in this field is Cyberhand, a new-generation prosthetic device. Patients equipped with such a device will actually be able to feel what they are doing. Teaching robots and other sophisticated appliances are not far off. Plans call for bringing robots up to a level sufficient to support full-fledged man-robot communication by 202510. The progress in robotic engineering and automated production confirms that the present-day level of science and technology is sufficient to support well-being for all people on the planet. All that is needed is to disseminate the knowledge and know-how and overcome the contradictions between various communities and groups of people. Of course, depletion of the Earth resources of the Earth is a serious problem, but there is a huge field still waiting to be plowed outer space. We will return to this subject and discuss it again in greater detail in the final chapters of the book. The problem of creating artificial intelligence essentially boils down to formalizing the process of cognition11. After all, it is both cheaper and safer to use robots for exploring difficult-to-access areas on the Earth as well as is outer space. The number of applications in which robots can be more effective than human beings is constantly increasing. It appears quite paradoxical that the human brain, the product of a hundred million years of evolution, is now creating machines capable of doing sophisticated mental work much faster, and often much better, than do human beings. Moreover, such intellectual machines have taken only a few decades to be designed and produced12.

There are more than 70 known projects devoted to creating anthropomorphic robots, that is, androids. It is believed that by the middle of this century human beings will have no chance in a game of soccer played against a team of such machines. 9 Robots will be getting more affordable to consumers, and they will be having increasing influence on our work, studies, pastimes and communications, like it happened with personal computers over the last 30 years, Bill Gates forecasts. 10 In Japan, where deficit of manpower is forecast, there are plans of wide use of robots. By year 2025, they plan to use about 970,000 robots as nurses and sick attendants, another 450,000 robots in agriculture and 1.5 million robots as janitors and couriers. 11 It is important to include perceptual analysis, the path from the particular to the general. Perceiving a new object as a combination of signals generated by its sensors, a computer will make a hypothesis about what it is, then analyzing the hypothesis and either proving or disproving it. 12 The following is an excerpt from Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, 2005: "Man is losing his central position as the most intelligent and efficient creature of the Earth. A bit earlier than in 2099 we will be able to scan human brain and record each combination of neurons, neurotransmitters, each synaptic connection and each cell in full detail. Having done that, we will be able to copy human brain into a strong computer to make an ideal copy of thoughts, recollections and all what we can do." (http://www.automatesintelligents.com/). Hence there will be a chance to replace defective segments of human brain with microcircuits, and, therefore, return vision to the blind, hearting to the deaf and ability to move to the paralyzed. Kurzweil further wrote: "Synergy and progressive development of new technologies will result in a fundamental transformation of the world. What will happen will be a mutual penetration and mutual strengthening of Man and his technological resources. It will expand the realm of intelligent life beyond any conceivable bounds. Our intelligence will gradually break free from its biological vessel (the brain) and will become billion times mightier compared to what it is today. In the new world that comes, distinctions between man and machine and between actual and virtual reality will gradually disappear. People will be able to get new bodies and create several versions of their consciousness. With such abilities, people will put diseases and aging under control, clean the environment and resolve the problems of hunger and poverty worldwide. All this might come true in the next 10-50 years."

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

194

It is no coincidence that beat the world chess champion. With progress in hardware and software, it will be increasingly difficult for human beings to stand up in competition with machines. It is obvious that the companies and countries that outrace others in delegating control to the machines will have an advantage. It is difficult to make far-reaching forecasts at this point, but in the final analysis human beings will likely face the problem of keeping its machines under control. Here it is appropriate to recall the famous Three Laws of Robotics of Isaac Asimov's science-fiction stories: "1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. 2. A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. 3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law." Of course, it is not a problem to keep your desktop computer, laptop under control but what about the powerful machines that control production, energy, requisition, defense and other critical areas? Efficient command requires delegation of decision-making authority to subordinates. The problem is that it may become impossible for an intelligent machine to explain its decision-making motives to a human operator who might be less intelligent and less competent. What if a situation occurs in which a decision needs to be made very quickly? In both market competition and warfare, it will be logical to delegate maximum authority to artificial intelligence systems after bringing their capacity up to a maximum and providing them with the greatest possible degree of protection. All we can do at this point is speculate about possible trends and future scenarios. Probably the best outcome would be a carefree existence for the human species with intelligent machines working under their control. Thus, machines would provide people with everything necessary for life and save them time for creative work in the sciences and arts, as well as for sports, travel and entertainment. The danger is that one day the machines may decide to play their own game for goals not coinciding with those of people. Nobody knows how a selflearning and self-reproducing artificial intelligence will behave. Such robots might, for example, come to want to increase their self-reproduction and seek to use as many resources as possible for this purpose. The capacity for quick self-reproduction might become particularly important in the event of a war between different groups of people and/or computers. At a certain moment, the question may arise of which deserves more resources, people or machines. In a different scenario, control of the machines might be usurped by a small group of people. Then, this group will have the power to decide what to do with the others, whether to let them live or leave them to die. There is no need to dig deeply into the past to find examples of cruel dictators coming to power. Despite the gradual development and changes in human society, it cannot be ruled out that some vestiges and atavisms of old mentality, such as aggressiveness, cruelty, etc., will remain among a certain part of society and determine their behavior. Such people could be particularly dangerous in a world with high-tech intelligence. An opinion exists that the replacement of humans with better-fitted machines represents a natural evolutionary process after all, those best adapted and most viable have always won out and dominated their environment. Accordingly, it would be senseless to put obstacles on the way of progress by destroying intelligent machines recall how unsuccessful the Luddites were in their senseless struggle against machines and the industrial Revolution in the 17th century. There is every reason to fear that humans may lose out in competition to robots unless they manage to keep things under control and do not let the Genie out of the bottle. Would it be possible to implant the idea of humanism into the "mind" of the future artificial intelligence? Robots will a priori have many advantages over human beings: they will be able to exist and operate in various kinds of atmospheres and a wide range of pressures, including vacuum. They will not be sensitive to radiation, temperature, gravitation, etc., not to mention not needing to eat or relax. An intelligent system capable of self-reproduction and self-education, which can exist in a wide range of environmental conditions, may develop quite unexpected qualities (a "mindset" or "character," perhaps) that we cannot anticipate at this moment. As was noted above, the main problem will be our ability to control them. Incidentally, situations in which an assistant gains power and ultimately replaces his superior are not uncommon at all, and with robots something like that may happen on the planetary scale. If the worst-case scenario comes to pass, the question is what our fate will Robot designed for servicing outdoor equipbe like: will machines treat us just like we treat animals13? Or will they ment on a space station. Populyarnaya mekhave some respect for their creators14? The scenario cannot be ruled out hanika (Popular Mechanics), October 2005.
"Human aggressiveness will probably be neutralized by various controls and genetic manipulation. In order to keep people occupied, an increasingly enjoyable 'matrix' will be created for them that will ultimately become a supernarcotic removing people from reality. People will willingly choose to live in a constant virtual reality because they will have nothing to do outside it." (Alexei Turchin, The Structure of Global Catastrophe, 2007). 14 "Regardless of who becomes the creator of the first artificial intelligence, it will bear the imprint of the mindset and basic values of its creator or creators, accepting this system of values as the ultimate and only truth. It might be 'good for all' or 'good for all orthodox Muslims' or 'good
13

Chapter 13

195

in which industrial and home robots, which will be widespread throughout the planet, will suddenly be infected with a computer virus that reprograms them for aggression against people. There is, however, an alternative path. I mean by this the creation of cyborgs, i.e., human-machine hybrids. We are not after all squeamish about such examples of man-machine symbiosis as human-steered automobiles, airplanes, cranes, and so forth. (why not, if this helps us become thousand of times stronger or faster). We already use computers as an extension of our memory or brainpower. Will it violate a matter of principle if we allow microchips to be connected directly to our brains, creating a hybrid of natural and artificial intelligence (see footnote 10)? Will this be a solution to the problem of a potential rivalry between humans and intelligent machines? Experiments of electrode implantation into animal and not only animal brains, including for remote control, have been conducted for a long time. To a certain extent this will, of course, mean the end of traditional homo sapiens and its replacement with a somewhat different form of living matter. Another question is whether we should seek to avoid robotization, to what extent it might be bad or dangerous for us, or, on the contrary, might become a new stage of our evolution and progress. The modernization of the human organism is a purely technological issue (though its moral aspect will be addressed below) and can be approached from several directions. One possible approach is fusion of the human organism with mechanical components. This would to a certain extent resemble the implantation of prosthetic devices with which many of us are familiar, like false teeth, artificial limbs, cardiostimulators, etc. Here it is appropriate to quote the American Alexander Bolonkin: "If our brain had consisted of chips, instead of biological molecules, it would mean that we had immortality. Then our biological body would have become a heavy burden to us. It freezes, suffers from heat, requires clothes and care and is easily injured. It is more convenient to have steel hands and legs possessing huge power that are insensitive to cold and heat and for which food and oxygen are not necessary. Even if they were to be broken, there would be nothing to complain about, as we could buy and install new ones that are even better and more modern. But one still would have the most important things ones consciousness, memory, imagination and habits, i.e., everything that the brain contains. Outwardly one could be given the same human and or an even more graceful shape, for example, a nice young face, a trim figure, a delicate satiny skin, etc. Moreover, this shape can be changed at will, according to fashion, taste and ideas about beauty of the individual." It must be noted that the end result of evolution on this plant is a very sophisticated but very ephemeral species; therefore, our challenge is to engineer organisms that will be much more efficient and more viable. The same Alexander Bolonkin argues for the possibility of creating intelligent compact creatures capable of traveling in space and feeding directly on solar energy, which "will not need air, heat, water, food, clothes, homes or comfortable environmental conditions, i.e., the things that it takes 99.9% of our time and energy to provide ourselves with." Also, it is possible to speculate about the creation of a new type of intelligent living being for the colonization of oceanic depths. An alternative, genetic, approach to modernizing the human organism will be discussed in the next section. In any case, the new opportunities opened by technological progress, the human desire for new abilities and skills, tough competition and other factors will inevitably stimulate expansion of human capabilities by means of techniques that currently seem inconceivable. This development will be much faster than natural evolution was, with the ultimate result perhaps being the creation of a next variant of homo sapiens. Something being studied as a possible way to preserve human consciousness after the organism's biological death is information transfer from the brain to a computer. This, however, would produce a new, different person, a double. In the more distant future, it will likely be possible to preserve one's personality after the organism's physical death by transferring the brain into a new body, which may resemble the old one or be completely different, as one desires15. New opportunities may also come from cloning technology. Clones may be grown specifically as sources of human spare parts, which will help resolve the problem of tissue rejection, one of the largest problems hampering transplantation of organs. Genetic Engineering Although genetics was labeled as a "false science" in the Soviet Union, this designation was overcome by events. Genes (from the Greek genos, which translates as "gender" or "origin") determine most of the features of living organisms. Appearance, organic structure, basic traits of character, life expectancy and many other features and properties of a living organism are to a large extent determined by a program recorded in each of its cells. This program is recorded on the DNA molecule, a twisted double helical molecule composed of four basic structural units, nucleotides, repeating in a different order one after another. A human DNA molecule contains tens of thousands of genes that, all combined, use approximately 3 billion nucleotide pairs; each gene (or combination of
for the computer programmers who created it.' In this sense, the moment of the first AI creation will be a bifurcation point for human civilization with a large number of possible variants" (Ibid.) 15 These issues are addressed by the new science of "settleretics," or mind uploading (see, for example, Yan Korchmaryuk in the References).

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

196

Will it be ever possible for human beings to become immortal? Genetic engineering will help enhance the quality of our lives, and, probably, the genes responsible for aging will ultimately be identified and rendered harmless. However, it is rather difficult to make long-term predictions regarding genetic engineering and its probable consequences. Gene transplantation changes the entire program of the recipient organism, and its cells start to function in a different way and produce new substances that may cause side effects. For example, a gene transplantation may cause an organism to generate toxins or allergens. There is a record of illnesses and poisoning caused by the consumption of insufficiently tested genetically modified (transgenetic) products. Organisms produced by genetic engineering are capable of reproduction. They can crossbreed with "natural" species18, and the results for the planet's ecosystem of such crossbreeding are totally unpredictable. The opinion exists that genetic engineering is a risky affair fraught with bringing disturbances into a balanced ecosystem that accommodates numerous living forms created by many millions of years of evolution.
It will not be very long until the time when a genetic passport will be issued to every newborn child, specifying all individual features of his or her DNA and susceptibilities to various diseases, if any. With this information it will be possible to prescribe an optimal course of medical treatment and determine the most suitable field of occupation, while the negative of this will be some inequality in job placement and some other situations.

It should be noted that many of the existing cultivated plants are crossbreeds. In the form they are grown today, wheat, corn, soybeans, bananas and many other edible plants are products of selection and crossbreeding. Now, as genetics engineering has been recognized as harmless, its large-scale application has been launched in many countries. In the United States, for example, a large proportion of cultivated corn, soybeans and other food crops have undergone genetic modifications, and such experiments are actively being performed in Argentina, Canada, Brazil, China and a number of other countries. As the potential of traditional selection has been almost exhausted, major hopes are being placed in innovative methods.

genes) is responsible for a certain property of feature of an organism. Genes determine the structural organization and functioning of trillions of cells in the human organism. DNA tests are widely used in forensic practice for obtaining evidence of a cell's origin in a particular organism. A single cell is sufficient for reproducing a completely identical organism, a clone16. The Human Genome Project, which was successfully completed recently, was an almost 15-year-long collective effort by over 20 research centers around the world with a budget of nearly $3 billion one of the largest scientific projects ever. The human genome may have been accurately deciphered, but much effort is still required to systematize the results and put them to practical use. An even larger program is currently under way, Genomics: GTL (Genomes To Life), which was launched recently by the US Department of Energy. In parallel with research, legal activities are in process to patent the discovered structures of individual genes. The United States Patent and Trademark Office has already issued patents covering a large number of the deciphered human DNA genes17. Studies are being performed to determine susceptibility to hereditary and other types of diseases. A new area has appeared at the forefront of medicine, gene therapy, the technique of inserting genes into an individual's cells and tissues, thus changing the organism's properties in a desired direction. New organisms have already been created that combine the properties of plants and animals. With the help of these techniques, it will be possible to create special microorganisms for various applications, such as, for example, waste disposal. Another rapidly developing area of genetic engineering is the construction of microorganisms capable of destroying inorganic substances, for example, parts of military hardware (see Chapter 12). Over billions of years, evolution worked to create a wide variety of species using two major tools: mutation (changes in the genetic code) and competition (adaptability and the struggle for survival, i.e., natural selection). Recently, the "toolkit" incorporated artificial techniques of incorporating DNA segments into natural systems to make them acquire fundamentally new properties. Genetic engineering opens new opportunities for the creation of microscopic organisms capable of synthesizing new chemical substances that can be used for medicinal purposes, for the removal of toxic components from sewage and other applications. There are plans for creating artificial leucocytes that would synthesize useful proteins or destroy pathogenic microbes or cancer cells inside an organism. The new scientific discoveries serve to expand the known limits of living and dead matter, and artificial, organisms are appearing that possess new genetically engineered properties. For example, there are plans for creating new, more productive plant species with longer shelf lives, enhanced pesticide and drought resistance, higher nutritional value and other useful qualities. In a number of countries, it is legal to produce and sell genetically modified foodstuffs. In effect, the path is open to engineering new organisms, from useful ones to bloodcurdling monsters. As with robotics, it is hard to predict at this point what the ultimate results of human experiments with genetic engineering will be. Unfortunately, biological weapons developers have also obtained a powerful tool.

A number of problems do arise in relation to the possibility of human genome modification. There is no doubt that those genes that are responsible for serious hereditary diseases should be cleaned out. Genetic consultations
Regeneration of skin, corneas or bones using transplants grown from the patient's own cells has become a routine procedure, and the first attempts are being made to grow whole organs from individual cells. 17 Commercialization of biotechnologies is causing many problems, including related to the right of ownership to discoveries made in this area. 18 For example, such crossbreeding might result in a new, herbicide-resistant variety of weed.
16

Chapter 13

197

Eugenics. Charles Darwin believed that homo sapiens might not be the apex of evolution. He alleged that homo sapiens will be followed by homo super sapiens, however, probably no sooner than in many thousand years. Friedrich Nietzsche referred to homo sapiens as a bridge between apes and ubermensch. Francis Fukuyama argues that artificial development of the human species may aggravate the problem of social stratification. The most significant threat posed by contemporary biotechnology is the possibility that it will alter human nature and thereby move us into a 'posthuman' stage of history, he maintains. A society where the notion of human unity is lost might become much more hierarchical and competitive compared to the present one, and, as a consequence, more susceptible to social conflicts, Fukuyama warns. It is difficult to imagine at this point where this would lead us and what laws would be adopted by a new society to function and regulate itself. Eugenics (from the Greek word eugenes, "of good birth"), the attempt to improve human characteristics through breeding, has been advocated before. In a letter to Stalin written in the 1930s, a number of eminent German scientists argued that the socialist system represented a perfect opportunity for "improving the human species." In Nazi Germany tens of thousands of mentally disturbed or disabled people were sterilized and the idea of breeding a "pure Aryan race" was preached. Recently it has come to light that compulsory sterilization of "mentally retarded" people was practiced in Sweden from 1935 to 1975. After this information leaked to the press, there was a huge scandal and monetary compensations were paid to the victims. In the United States, sterilization of mentally handicapped people plus alcoholics, recidivists, vagrants and some other categories of people the government considered it undesirable to have children were sterilized. As of 1935, nearly 30 states had similar laws. The history of humanity has seen several other examples of intervention into the natural ways of human evolution, such as in Sparta and China. It cannot be ruled out that, after a global nuclear disaster, the only possible way to preserve the human species would lie in the use of artificial selection and genetic engineering. Already today we have medicines that cure not only the body, but also the brain, sometimes enhancing one's intellectual potential, and there is reason to expect new medicines to appear that will correct such seemingly incurable problems as underdevelopment of certain segments inside the brain. Psychosurgery the technique of modulating the performance of the brain with the help of electronic implants is gaining momentum as well. However, the most sophisticated methods of genetic engineering are entering our life slowly and are being introduced with great caution. The role of these disciplines will increase as they become more understandable and more essential for humanity. After all, the percentage of children born with hereditary defects tends increases due to unfavorable environmental conditions, alcohol or drug abuse by their parents, etc.19,20

have been provided for a long time in order to warn future parents about potentially dangerous or unfavorable gene combinations fraught with congenital defects. Genetic tests can be performed at the early stage of a fetus' development. But how should we deal with the genes responsible alcoholism, drug addition or aggressiveness? It is far from easy to draw the line between "dangerous aggressiveness" and exuberance or enthusiasm. Moreover, genetically transmitted susceptibilities may be triggered or remain latent, depending on the specific environment and upbringing. Even if DNA correction becomes technically possible, there will always be ethical and moral aspects of it that challenge the accepted norms of human society. In the future, genetic engineering will become capable of providing people with enhanced intellectual potential or, alternatively, enhanced stamina and obedience. The latter will represent a temptation hard to resist for certain groups or countries. It cannot be ruled out that genetic engineering will go so far as to create fundamentally new organisms having little or nothing in common with human beings or other known species. After all, there is no limit to a designer's inventiveness, and it is difficult to predict at this point what kinds of unusual creatures might thus appear. As was noted above in the Nanotechnology section, it may become possible to make weapons that would selectively destroy particular ethnic groups. The possibility of a genetic weapon has been a recent subject of discussion. Thus, Academician Mikhail Paltsev warns that "weapons of mass destruction that are enormously powerful and difficult to detect can be created by means of imbuing aggressor-genes into edible plants. Such genes, added in negligibly small amounts, will cause the normally harmless nutritional plants to generate toxins or bioregulators. Genetic engineering is also capable of producing extremely dangerous viruses with long periods of incubation targeted at the human brain and nervous system. Other possibilities include the creation of modified causal agents of the most dangerous and highly contagious diseases, etc... Killer genes are being created capable of producing terribly destructive effects on the human organism." Such activities could lead to the development of a new-generation weapon of mass destruction sometimes referred to as a "genetic bomb" or "ethnic bomb." It cannot be ruled out that such weapons are already being secretly tested somewhere in the world, and later they may be used on a massive scale. The governments of the world's leading countries understand well how progress in science is essential for many spheres of life. In the United States, for example, it is planned to double funding for basic research by 2010, with a specific significant increase of work anticipated in biomedical technology.

Mutations caused by nuclear test blasts (of which there have been nearly 2000) may also take e toll. Damage accumulated in parental organisms over their lifetimes may be inheritable, which is why children with hereditary defects are born more often from middle-aged parents. 20 In terms of gene-pool quality, Russia is ranked in fourth place among the 193 countries included in research recently performed by US experts in the field. Moreover, in terms of inborn cardiac valve defects, blood diseases, Down's syndrome and a number of other defects, our gene pool
19

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

198

The Italian philosopher and writer Tommaso Campanella (1568-1639) preached the ideas of state control over breeding and upbringing: " the race is managed for the good of the commonwealth, and not of private individuals, and the magistrates must be obeyed. Therefore the breeding of children has reference to the commonwealth, and not to individuals, except insofar as they are constituents of the commonwealth individuals for the most part bring forth children wrongly and educate them wrongly" Konstantin Tsiolkovsky also took a tough stand on this issue: "We should seek to eradicate imperfect beings, for example, rapists, cripples, the sickly, imbeciles, etc. They must be given all care possible, but they should not have children." Here are some excerpts of what notable people have said about eugenics. Academician Nikolai Amosov wrote in 1992 that "our gene pool has been irreparably compromised by medicine and humanistic values, and natural selection is virtually blocked. The accumulation of genetic ballast is the inevitable price we pay for our humanism and the achievements brought about by progress." Akop Nazaretian wrote in 2001 that "the possibility of genetic correction of embryonic cells, combined with artificial insemination, gives a new life to the old discipline of eugenics, the technique of improving the human stock. The time is coming for changes in the public's cautious attitudes regarding the idea of radical intervention into human nature, including compulsory medical treatment (under a court verdict, of course) for malicious criminals This, however, is where we enter the land of utopia. Why will decide which people and which societies have the right to live on this planet?" Mikhail Lobashev wrote in 1967 that "we need to develop the discipline of eugenics to study the paths, methods and peculiarities of human evolution." In 1980, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote that "finally, looking ahead to the end of the century, the possibility of biochemical mind control and genetic tinkering with man, including beings that will function like men and reason like them as well, could give rise to some difficult questions." In concluding this chapter, I would like to present some fantasies (or possibly scientific predictions) about immortality. In view of the potential opportunities promised by genetic engineering, there are reasons to believe that one day it will be possible to achieve a dramatic increase in the human life span, or even to remove limits upon it at all, which would mean immortality. Already today there are effective rejuvenation procedures for the human organism. In the future, a method will probably be developed to introduce preprogrammed stem cells into a sick person's bloodstream to infiltrate the organism's affected systems (the brain, cardiovascular system, etc.) and perform the necessary repairs21. It may become possible to disable the mechanism of aging and to support cell regeneration on the genetic level by means of modifications at the embryonic stage as Lee Silver said, to "write immortality into the genes of the human race." Such technologies, however, would definitely be expensive, and, therefore, immortality would be accessible only to a limited circle of people, which means that the future world population will be divided into mortals and immortals. The issue of social justice would become very acute and needing prompt resolution22. For several decades a number of companies have specialized in deep freezing people's bodies after biological death with the hope that future technologies will allow them to be revitalized. Freezing here is performed in a special way so as to preserve the blood vessels and organs. It cannot be ruled out that there may be several billion people entitled to immortality, with new ones would joining the select only in the event of the accidental death of one of its permanent members. The latter scenario would mean a full stop to natural evolution; however, the possibility would remain of targeted modernization of the human species by means of genetic engineering (this is based on the book by Professor of Bioethics John Harris Clones, Genes, and Immortality: Ethics and the Genetic Revolution, Oxford University Press, 1998). Life extension will wreak havoc with most existing age-graded hierarchies and have dramatic effects on people's attitudes toward death. People might start treating it not as a natural and inevitable aspect of life but as a curable problem like polio or measles. In the final analysis, biotechnology will cause us to lose our human identity. We may find ourselves on the other side of the barrier between the human and posthuman histories, Fukuyama (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Fukuyama)alerts.

The modern progress of civilization gives the opportunity to live and even to reproduce to people are physically or mentally handicapped and would have died in their early years had they been born in the past. The result of this is a growing percentage of people suffering from various kinds of disability, a trend it is difficult to fight. This is not only because of our humanistic outlook, but also because it is not always possible to make a 100% incontestable diagnosis: there is always a chance that defects will disappear or functions be restored over time or with the help of modern medicine.

*** In addition to the fields of science and technology which were discussed above, others may emerge that will lead to surprising, unexpected and earlier inconceivable opportunities. The variants described above are likely, but not guaranteed, scenarios of development. All we can do is to presume that each of these fields of research will lead to new discoveries. Future developments are likely to boost labor productivity and contribute to the resolution of many existing problems, primarily to improve the quality of life for everyone. However, they will also help create new kinds of weapons. A number of discoveries will probably be made at the intersections of

has proven to be one of the best in the world. The troubles of the last few generations have in all likelihood not yet affected the nation's genetic pool. The scope of the study, however, did not include congenital abnormalities caused by alcoholism, drug addiction or infectious diseases. 21 Stem cells are undifferentiated cells from which any kind of tissue can be derived. Stem cells are particularly widespread in embryos, however, they are still found in grown up organisms too. Theoretically, any organ can be grown from stem cells. Research in this sphere may result in the opportunity to cure any illness. 22 Optimistic researchers maintain that ways will be found to extend active human life to several hundred years already in this century.

Chapter 13

199

disciplines. For example, possible applications of artificial intelligence may include nanorobots and genetic research, while genetic engineering may find applications in nanotechnologies, etc.23 It is important to note that, unlike nuclear, chemical or biological weapons of mass destruction, which from the very start were developed in government-controlled laboratories and intended for military purposes, many of the newer cutting edge technologies have been developed by privately owned companies as part of commercial, profitoriented projects. However, the existing policy of protection of technological secrets makes it hard to monitor or control progress in these fields. Nuclear test blasts can be detected with the help of seismographs and radiation sensors, but in order to ensure adequate monitoring of high-tech research, it will be necessary to organize special inspections, similar to those performed for monitoring of biological weapons, but on a much greater scale. Here it is appropriate to quote Andrei Sakharov's Nobel Prize Lecture delivered on December 11, 1975: "We cannot reject the idea of a more and more widespread use of the results of medical research or the extension of research in all its branches, including bacteriology and virology, neurophysiology, human genetics, and gene surgery, no matter what potential dangers lurk in their abuse and the undesirable social consequences of this research. This also applies to research that aims at creating systems for imitating intellectual processes and research involving the control of mass human behavior It is quite clear that, in the hands of irresponsible, bureaucratic authorities operating under the cover of secrecy, all this research may prove exceptionally dangerous (epoch of mass destruction knowledge is coming), but at the same time it may prove extremely important and necessary for mankind, if it is carried out under state control, testing and socioscientific analysis."24 It will probably take a decade or two before these technologies reach a dangerous level, but the issue already needs international attention no less than that of controlling existing weapons. It would be good if politicians were to pay more attention to watching progress in science and analyzing its potential consequences. When making decision on fund allocations for this or that research project, those in power are not always aware of its potential consequences or which powers it may bring to bear25. Much less are they aware of its long-term consequences and influence on our lives26. In order to respond to the challenges facing mankind (not only in the technical sphere, but in the humanitarian domain as well), it is essential to make the best possible use of the available high-technology tools and bring together the most talented specialists to join efforts on crucial, top priority areas.

There are reasons to expect extensive integration of computer science and genetic engineering. Although these two disciplines might seem absolutely different at first glance, they really have much in common. Written in the genes is information accumulated by a species during evolution, as well as an organism's developmental program, basic instincts and patterns of response to external influences, including both routine behavior and emergency situations such as microbial attack, poisoning, etc. We can only be surprised how it is possible for such a microscopic molecule as DNA to contain more information than a high capacity modern computer. A symbiosis of genetic engineering and computer science will open new vistas. 24 Here it is appropriate to present a quote from the Russian economist and informational technologies expert Yuri Bobylov: "High-tech terrorism is related to activities by informal teams of research scientists that may be located within any kind of institution, including in the defense industry, the Academy of Sciences or university or industrial research centers... Even state-sponsored high-tech terrorism is possible." 25 Lev Artsimovich, a famous Soviet physicist and a participant in the Soviet nuclear research programs, liked to say that "science is the opium of governments." 26 According to Sergey Kapitsa, "the mental gap inside humanity continues to widen; those belonging to the top stratum in terms of knowledge base, power and universality of intellect and access to information have gone a long way from the past century's intellectual elite, not to mention ancient thinkers."

23

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

200

Chapter 14

Environment and Dangers From Without The increasing population, growing industrial exhausts, the use of poisonous chemicals in agriculture, and pollution caused by nuclear facilities and nuclear tests are worsening the general environmental situation. There are regions where the level of pollution exceeds acceptable limits, thus, according to statistics, raising the mortality rate and ruining the gene pool on an increasing scale. According to estimates, many of the planet's resources may last only for the next 50 or 100 years. Therefore, urgent and radical measures need to be taken to secure a life for our descendants. It is a banal but never-followed maxim that nature should be used in such a way that it can be recovered and renewed. Another problem we are facing is that of timely detection of dangers coming from space asteroids or intense radiation flows. Space-born disasters appear to have occurred on the Earth many times. The present level of knowledge, however, makes it possible to deal with most of the above-mentioned hazards.
ne or two hundred years ago, anthropogenic influence on the Earth was relatively small. It is true that some animal species had been reduced to extinction, forests cut, and other damage inflicted on nature, but on a planetary scale there was no significant anthropogenic impact. The situation changed drastically with the start of the Industrial Revolution, which brought rapid growth of productive capacities and individual consumption; people's relationship with nature tended to acquire an increasingly destructive character. A considerable number of people, approximately 1 billion, who live in developed countries, consume much more energy and natural resources than in past centuries and much more than those who live in backward countries today. Energy production and consumption are rapidly increasing: over the 20 years from 1980 to 2000, the world's combined energy consumption increased 35%, and it is forecast to increase a further 50% in the next 20 years. The amounts of coal, oil, and gas burnt every year took several millions of years to accumulate on the planet in the long-age past. We are currently experiencing a shortage of potable water, and massive deforestation is threatening oxygen recuperation. A large part of the planet's land area is tilled and is heavily treated with fertilizers and pesticides, and the proportion of cultivated land area increased from 20% as of the beginning of the 20th century to about 60% at its end. The world population is now approximately 7 billion and continues to grow1. The "prosperity club" of those with high levels of consumption is being joined by more and more countries. Motor vehicles, which number in the hundreds of millions, consume more oxygen than all people combined. If we assume that oxygen consumption continues to grow at its present rate, there will be no oxygen in the Earth's atmosphere in the next 200 years. As Academician Vladimir Vernadsky said, "man a rational component of living matter has become a geological force Now he should think and act not only in the categories of individual, family, clan, country, or union, but in the category of the planet." What is going on is unification of man and nature, which together form a complex system (noosphere) the evolution of which depends on both human activities and natural factors both terrestrial and cosmic. Our planet cannot cope indefinitely with growing depletion of its natural resources and worsening of its habitat. "People have been changing the biosphere more quickly than they have been understanding it. Like a worm that eats away at the fruit from the inside, human beings are building their civilization inside the biosphere at the cost of its partial destruction," Viktor Danilov-Danilyan, Kim Losev and Igor Reif stated in their book, In Front of the Civilization's Main Challenge. Accumulation of new substances alien to nature is causing instability in natural processes2. In order to reverse these negative trends, it is required to adopt different models of development that will decelerate depletion of the Earth's resources or allow mankind to take resources from outer space.

These adverse trends were perceived back in the 19th century by the Russian philosophers of Cosmism3. They warned of the danger of a global crisis in the future caused by excessive anthropogenic impact on nature and called upon "people of different nationalities and religions, rich and poor, educated and uneducated, to work together to preserve the environment."4

Global production is forecast to grow 300-400% in the next 50 years; environmental impact will increase accordingly. In his report "Biosphere and Humanity" (1968), Nikolai Timofeev-Resovsky compared the biosphere to a gigantic living factory transforming energy and substance matter on the planet's surface, forming equilibrium compositions of atmosphere and natural waters and maintaining, through the atmosphere, the planet's entire energy balance, including its climate. 3 The Russian school of Cosmism was founded by Nikolai Fyodorov, Vladimir Solovyov and others. 4 At approximately the same time, Jean-Baptiste Lamarck, the creator of the first modern theory of evolution, made the rather pessimistic statement that "the purpose of the human race is self-destruction after having made the Earth unfit for life."
1 2

Chapter 14

201

People, like most other living organisms, can survive within a rather narrow range of ambient conditions. The habitat of the great majority of living beings on the planet is limited to a 10-kilometer zone. Compared to the Earth's dimensions, this is like a sheet of paper on a schoolroom globe.5 The Earth's biosphere is squeezed between the cold of space above and the melted magma below and is sometimes called a film of life on the Earth's surface. Most areas of human habitation are located no higher than 1 kilometer from the sea level (some mountain peoples live up to 3-4 kilometers in altitude and alpinists climb up to nearly 9 kilometers, though most often they use oxygen masks at such heights). Some organisms can live within a temperature range from 60 to +100 degrees Celsius, though for human beings the range is narrower. The range of atmospheric pressure fit for life is also rather narrow. (In the event of space colonization, gravity will become a significant factor). Cosmic radiation and, of course, solar radiation play an important role in life and evolution on Earth (for more details, see below), with the atmosphere partly shielding us from solar radiation, as well as from most meteorites. In addition, the biosphere is affected by such natural cataclysms as earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, etc., that is, phenomena related to processes within the Earth's interior of which we have a rather vague notion; recurrent temperature reductions, advance of glaciers6; intensification of cosmic radiation. Despite all these natural limitations, human civilization is rapidly gaining momentum, growing in the number, developing industries, and detonating nuclear warheads7. Human activity is affecting the landscape, the climate, and the variety of plant and animal species living on the planet. Over the last hundred years, animal species have gone extinct at an increasing rate, with up to several thousand species vanishing every year8. The last several decades witnessed heavy pollution of the atmosphere, water, and soil, and the human organism cannot adapt to such rapid changes in habitat. Therefore, the only chance for us to survive is to try to preserve the environmental conditions to which we are used and are suitable for living9. As it is written in the Humanist Manifesto 2000, "each generation must do its best to leave the world in a better condition than had received it We should see to it that the human race does not bring the atmosphere, water, and soil to a condition that would seriously undermine the very possibility of life on this planet."
"Thus, the world has been converted in an instant of time from a wild natural one to one in which humans, one of an estimated 10 million or more species, are consuming, wasting, or diverting an estimated 45% of the total net biological productivity on land and using more than half of the renewable fresh water We must adopt new ways of thinking that will serve our descendants well in a world that is crowded beyond imagining, a world in which we shall always be the major ecological force; unless, of course, we destroy ourselves... Over the past half century, we have lost a fifth of the world's topsoil, a fifth of its agricultural land, and a third of its forests," as it was put in the paper "Science, Sustainability, and the Human Prospect" by Peter H. Raven (Science, vol. 297, 2002).

The main examples of depletion, poisoning and shrinking of our habitat are: Atmospheric pollution, acid rain, changes in atmospheric composition, radioactive fallout, ozone-layer depletion, deforestation, and atmospheric poisoning by automotive transport, toxic discharges of the garbageincinerating plants and other industries. The intense fossil-fuel processing and burning in the last 100 years has led to a 30% increase in carbon dioxide and a 150% increase in methane content in the atmosphere. Forest areas have diminished10. Pollution of the World Ocean and internal freshwater reservoirs, rivers, lakes, and groundwater with industrial and household wastes. Fresh water constitutes only 2.5% of the total water reserves and two-thirds of it are stored in the glaciers11. Twenty billion tons of toxic substances are discharged into the World Ocean every year. More than 1 billion tons of hydrocarbons, 600,000 tons of detergents, and 100,000 tons of mercury have been dumped into the Mediterranean Sea.

5 Living beings taken together represent a self-developing system composed of billions of different species that have reproduced and spread over the planet at the expense of dead matter. Living matter and dead matter make up an integral whole called the biosphere. The two types of matter coexist and develop while interacting with each other. 6 The most recent cooling in Europe, which was relatively minor in the magnitude, occurred roughly during the period from 1300 to 1850. It sent people away from Greenland, caused degradation of the Viking civilization and famine in several areas. 7 This will be obviously an unpleasant metaphor for us, but it has been said that, as seen from space, the growing deserts, poisoned lakes, smokestacks and other results of human activity look very much like mildew spreading over the surface of our planet. 8 It is believed that two or three plant and animal species become extinct with every passing hour. 9 Alternatively, we may choose to upgrade human organism artificially, but this sounds like science fiction today. 10 "If fossil-fuel combustion continues at its present rate, carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere will double by 2060, which will cause a global average temperature increase from the present 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius" (according to Kirill Kondratyev, Kim Losev and, others). It cannot be ruled out that the climatic warming of the last several decades may already be causing increased toxic atmospheric precipitation and natural disasters. 11 "In 46 countries with a combined population of 2.7 billion people there is a danger of crises and conflicts caused by lack of water." UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said in March 2008. "Lack of water is causing death of 1.5 million children every year," he emphasized.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

202

Soil depletion and its pollution with chemicals and industrial waste, fertility loss, and desertification (with desert areas having increased at a rate of more than 20 million hectares a year since the end of the 20th century). Pollution with household wastes and garbage12. Degradation of natural ecological system13. Impoverishment of flora and fauna and extinction of many plant and animal species. (Today, the scale and rate of extinction exceed those during the disappearance of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago). Extensive consumption of coal, oil, and gas. Depletion of accessible subsoil layers where fossil fuels, minerals, and metal ores are found. Weather anomalies causing floods and other natural disasters are probably due to global warming influenced by the human factor. Pollution caused by production-induced catastrophes which are tending to increase in both frequency and scale (see also Chapter 16). Areas suitable for human habitation may shrink as the World Ocean level rises due to global warming. Military factor: military actions, military exercises, and nuclear testing14, missiles and space objects. It is our duty, the Earth Charter of 1999 reads, to "protect the environment from large-scale, long-term, or damaging consequences of military actions." "Human civilization is a product of invasion into the environment and transformation of the latter to the satisfaction of human beings. In essence, it was a very real war waged against nature in which people could not but win because the speed of technical progress was rapidly growing, by the end of the 20th century exceeding the speed of natural evolution by five orders of magnitude, or 100,000 times," Kim Losev wrote. In some regions, environmental pressure has a catastrophic character. The consequences include an increase in the rate of allergic and other diseases caused by penetration of hazardous substances into the human organism, an increase in the number of congenital disorders, and gene-pool degradation. These processes are further aggravated, as natural selection no longer works. The Chernobyl disaster, the largestever technogenic catastrophe, affected millions of people. (This disaster prompted a number of countries to cut their use of nuclear energy15, although it is still debated whether nuclear power plants or conventional fossil-fuel ones are more harmful to the environment. In any case, in the world as a whole, both fossil-fuel-fired plants and nuclear power plants are being constructed and commissioned. Environmental problems facing mankind today include nuclear and chemical waste neutralization, reprocessing, and burial; mine disposal; decommissioning and utilization of nuclear submarines; disposal of missiles; etc.16. In addition, a serious danger is posed by leakage from containers containing chemical weapons that were dumped into the seas and oceans during World War II. With growing toxic emissions, environmental problems began receiving more attention. The United Nations addressed the issue in the second half of the 20th century. A United Nations Conference on the Human Environment was held in Stockholm in 1972, and at approximately the same time a number of popular movements appeared, such as Greenpeace, and international treaties aimed at curbing environmental pollution were signed, including the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. Greenhouse gases are probably one of the causes of the global warming now endangering the planet. The task has been set to reduce greenhouse emissions to the 1990 level. The Kyoto Protocol, which recently came into force, is intended to regulate greenhouse emissions into the atmosphere. Those countries that exceed their greenhouse emission quotas will be fined, while those that manage to stay below their quotas will have the opportunity to sell the balance to others. (Russia will be among those with the opportunity to sell their greenhouse gas emission quotas, as its industrial output has dropped dramatically over the last 25 years.) The end of the arms race beAmong the indicators used for assessing the degree of environmental protection is the proportion of household wastes collected for recycling. In California and Canada this proportion is as high as 70%, in large cities of Australia it is 60%, in European megapolises it is 50% and in Moscow it is only 1%. In Switzerland, for example, one risks being detained by the police if one drops a PET bottle into a glass waste collector container. 13 The most pessimistic experts maintain that the processes of environmental pollution and ecosystem degradation have already acquired an irreversible character and are beyond repair. To add gloom to their forecasts, they predict that "our successors on the planet may be insects with a short reproduction cycle and enormous adaptability," as Stanislav Grof put it in The Consciousness Revolution. 14 According to calculations by Andrey Sakharov, the amount of 14 released by the explosion of a 1-megaton bomb into the atmosphere ultimately causes the death of 6500 people over the next several generations by hereditary diseases, cancer, and leukemia. In addition, 137Cs and 90 Sr will bring the number of victims of such a bomb to 10,000. 15 Germany is most active in closing its nuclear power plants: in the 20 years to come, the Germans plan to close all nuclear power plants in the country. The energy deficit will be covered partly by alternative power sources such as wind and solar cells. However, in a number of countries, a large part of energy is provided by nuclear power plants. The leaders here are France, Belgium, and Sweden, where nuclear power plants account for 50-75% percent of national energy production. Approximately 450 nuclear power generating reactors are operated in the world today. Most countries are developing their nuclear power industries. The number of nuclear power generating reactors is forecast to hit 5,000 by the end of this century. 16 Though the issue of environmental pollution was much less acute several hundred years ago, there were people who cared about it at the time. A 19th-century decree by Peter the Great runs as follows: "Trash generated by ship cleaning and repair must be properly disposed of so that nothing falls down into the sea. If caught guilty once, the officer in charge shall be fined a one-month salary; if caught for a second time, he shall be fined a 6-month salary; and if caught for a third time, he shall be sent to do hard labor in Siberia."
12

Chapter 14

203

Many countries have their own programs in the field of environmental protection. Thus, in the United States plans have been announced for improving heat insulation of buildings to reduce energy consumption for their heating, to transfer automotive transport over to using a more environment friendly fuel, to adopt stricter sanitary and hygienic standards for drinking water, to ban the use of aerosols, etc.17. The United States, Japan18 and several other countries are developing low-fuel-consumption automobiles. Simultaneously, there is a noticeable tendency toward people coming to prefer environmentally responsible products, voluntarily limiting their consumption, practicing and propagandizing vegetarianism, refusing to wear fur, shifting to more economical vehicles, etc. Here it is appropriate to recall that the United States accounts for approximately 35% of the total amount of pollutants discharged into the environment, with a population of only 4.5% of the world population. The EU is implementing a program aimed at reducing the content of toxic substances in exhaust gases: New standards, from Euro-1 to Euro-5, are establishing progressively lower permissible concentrations of hazardous substances. Russia plans to gradually enforce these standards in the next 10 years. By 2010, the EU plans to produce at least 12% of its electricity from renewable sources, such as tides, wind, and solar radiation. Spain is the leader in the use of sustainable energy.

tween the superpowers served to somewhat reduce environmental pressure close to the end of the 20th century. The World Ocean, with its undisturbed ecosystems, and the virgin forests of Russia, Canada and Brazil, with a combined area of 13.5 million square kilometers, play a major role in environment stabilization. Here it is appropriate to quote the United Nations Millennium Declaration (2000): "We must spare no effort to free all of humanity, and above all our children and grandchildren, from the threat of living on a planet irredeemably spoilt by human activities and the resources of which would no longer be sufficient for their needs." The following is an excerpt from the declaration of the World Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg, South Africa, in 2002 (informally referred to as Rio + 10): "The global environment continues to suffer. Loss of biodiversity continues, fish stocks continue to be depleted, desertification claims more and more fertile land, the adverse effects of climate change are already evident, natural disasters are more frequent and more devastating, developing countries are more vulnerable, and air, water and marine pollution continue to rob millions of a decent life."

In the U.S. Department of Defense-sponsored Weather Report 2010-2020 it is forecast that climatic changes on the Earth may not be limited to just gradual changes; catastrophic ones may also take place with the potential of wreaking

The existing international treaties and relatively sluggish efforts by the world community in this field give no grounds to hope for a resolution of environmental problems soon. It seems that success in this field will only be possible with simultaneous progress in certain other issues that are no less important for the preservation of the human species, such as disarmament, peace, changes in geopolitics, etc. (see Chapter 18). It is well known what, specifically, needs to be done to preserve our habitat: develop environmentally responsible technologies, cut excessive consumption, stop population growth, restore forests and lakes, etc. This will, first of all, require an imposition of certain limits (restraints) on the quality of life of the so-called "golden billion." However, even with restraints imposed on the "golden billion," the planet will not be able to sustain the growth of well-being in the developing countries. After all, how will it be possible for the planet to support dramatically increased consumption on the part of 8 (or even 9-10) billion people? (Some ecologists believe that the optimal number of world population is somewhere in the range between 300 million and 900 million people). The only possible solution to the problem is to supplement the measures described above with simultaneous accelerated development of the nearest zone of outer space, including the Moon, artificial satellites, and deploying solar cells there. In subsequent phases, it will be possible to organize production facilities in orbit to fabricate parts and components for future space construction. These forecasts are based on the successful experience generated over the first 50 years of the space era; moreover, there are no technical problems that preclude large-scale development of near-zone outer space. Here, I am largely repeating the ideas expressed by Konstantin Tsiolkovsky a hundred years ago that mankind should expand its habitat to outer space (see Chapter 17). The difference is that the question of preserving the human species is now much more acute than it was in the time of Tsiolkovsky. Mankind has come close to the limits set by the available planetary resources. Speaking of the problem of mankind's survival in a broader sense, we must add one more factor into our consideration the possibility of physical destruction.

17 The following figures illustrate the attention the U.S. government is paying to environmental issues (from Washington ProFile): In 2008, the United States defense spending totaled about $600 billion while some $7 billion were spent on fighting global warming; allocations for climate research totaled approx. $4 billion, while military development costs hit $77 billion. 18 Japan was in a catastrophic state after World War II, nevertheless they set environmental protection as their national priority and were spending up to 6% of their national budget on environmental protection programs. Now Japan is one of the cleanest countries in the world with the longest life expectancy. Russia, in the best times, spent about 0.5% of its budget on environmental programs; currently the corresponding figure is only 0.1% (From Alexey Yablokov, Ecology and Human Rights, Communication No. ECO-HR.3251, June 29, 2009).

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

204

havoc with global political situation. The World Ocean's regime may change suddenly and radically so that Europe, Asia and North America are deprived of the heat supply they are accustomed to; instead, it will be warmer in the Southern Hemisphere19. Possibilities listed in the report include hunger in Europe and rivalry of the nuclear superpowers over water resources. The epoch known as the Little Ice Age was not very long ago, the Report continues, it lasted roughly from 1300 until 1850. The cold forced Europeans to abandon Greenland and caused the Viking civilization to degrade. During the period from 1315 to 1319 alone there was a hunger with the death toll of tens of thousands (mankind was much smaller in the number back then). Less recent phenomenon of similar kind occurred 8,200 years ago. Despite the tremendous progress in science and technology, mankind remains extremely vulnerable to natural hazards. Now the Earth's population is colossal with many people living in areas which are zones of risks from the natural hazard viewpoint. In the event of a catastrophic change of the climate, the main dangers facing mankind will be lack of food, water, mineral resources, including petroleum.20 Since there are only five or six major granaries in the world (the United States, Australia, Argentine, Russia, China and India), their reserves might not be sufficient in the event of a global disaster21.

Asteroidal and Other Dangers from Without t is well known that numerous celestial objects with sizes ranging from microscopic to relatively large are orbiting around the Sun. In addition to them, celestial objects of various sizes penetrate into our solar system from deep space. Some of these space wanderers end up colliding with planets. At the moment of impact, their speed may be as high as several dozen kilometers per second, and if their mass is great enough, the energy released by such a collision will be equivalent to a number of H-bomb explosions22. Craters formed by collisions with asteroids and comets are found on the Earth's surface and the surfaces of other planets. Most extraterrestrial objects colliding with the Earth are small, so they burn up in the atmosphere, leaving only glow trails on the sky. However, rarely, once in several tens of millions of years, our planet collides with large asteroids a kilometer or more in diameter. Such collisions have catastrophic consequences: colossal amounts of soil are raised into the sky and screen sunlight from the surface for many years. A climate change of this kind is termed "nuclear winter." Such climatic catastrophes (long winters) have probably happened on the Earth, causing periodic losses of life that have been detected by paleontologists. The latest major cataclysm occurred approximately 65 million years ago and caused the extinction of a large number of the living organisms that populated the planet (probably, over 90%), in particular the dinosaurs23, while, in the meantime, other species, including our ancestors the mammals, reproduced at accelerated rates. The asteroid (or comet) that hit the Earth at that time was 10-20 kilometers in diameter, and the collision pushed trillions of tons of ground up into the sky. The crater, which is 180 kilometers in diameter, is located on the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico. During such collisions, the asteroidal material partly melts, burns, or evaporates, but some fragments may receive sufficient kinetic momentum to escape from the Earth's gravitational field. (For example, fragments of Mars and other planets of the Solar System that have been knocked off by asteroids occasionally fall to Earth). Traces of the Yucatan catastrophe (iridium, carbon black, and other substances aged 65 million years) have been found at numerous locations around the globe. An even larger extraterrestrial object hit the Earth approximately 250 million years ago. Dozens of objects with diameters of 5 or more kilometers may have collided with the Earth in the last 500 million years. Atmospheric pollution caused by such cataclysms screens the Earth's surface from sunlight for a long time. Evaporation from the surface sharply drops, monsoons cease occurring, water transfer from the oceans to the continents stops, and the atmosphere becomes dry and cold. Most plants and animals cannot live in such conditions. Geological processes gradually cover the traces of such cataclysms, and many ancient craters can be found only with the help of aerial photography. Approximately 230 large craters have been detected on the Earth's surface, and there are probably more on the ocean floor. It cannot be ruled out that some of the circular structures seen on the planet's surface may also be traces left by past collisions of large meteorites with our planet. If a large extra19 Here it is appropriate to recall that deep under the Earth's surface (under the mantle, at the depth of about 2,000 kilometers) there is a huge body the Core which is formed of compressed and overheated liquid with a huge amount of dissolved gases. If these gases find their way to the surface, all surface forms of life will be eliminated. 20 There are even more categorical opinions in regard to the global warming problem. "The planet's ecosystem is currently on the verge of collapse. If we do not take urgent action, the world will be facing unprecedented threats such as global droughts and floods, catastrophic cyclones , pandemics of tropical diseases, military conflicts and unprecedented migrations"(from the speeches made at the 14th UN Climate Change Conference in Poznan, Poland, 2008). According to the UN estimates, climatic changes may cause 600 million people to suffer from hunger, 1.8 billion will suffer from lack of water and 330 million will be forced into migration. 21 Long-term climate cycles (over the period of many thousand years) were identified from the results of Antarctic ice studies. These cycles are believed to result from variations in the average distance between the Earth and the Sun. Alternatively, climate changes could results from the periodically occurring magnetic pole variations. 22 The amount of cosmic matter falling on the Earth every year measures tens of thousands of tons. 23 Some 250 known reptile species, which had dominated the planet for over 150 million years, died off.

Chapter 14

205

terrestrial object falls into water, a tsunami is generated that causes catastrophic destruction on the continents. If you take a look at the Moon through a primitive telescope or even with a naked eye, you will see what the Earth would be like if it were not for geological processes and vegetation (although some craters may have a volcanic origin). Those meteorites that happen to reach the Earth's surface are usually small in size, and destruction inflicted by their fall is minor. Over 1 million space objects solid rock fragments with orbits located within 50 million kilometers of the Earth's orbit, are known to the astronomers today. Approximately 5,000 of them are cataloged and are being watched, 700 of them are particularly dangerous as they are large in size. According to estimates, however, hardly any of them will collide with the Earth over the foreseeable future. But can we be equally certain about the remaining hundreds of thousands, let alone millions, which are farther from our planet at this moment? Moreover, asteroidal trajectories may change under the influence of other planets, i.e. they may be pulled into a dangerous proximity of the Earth. One of the latest "bullet-burns" occurred in July 2006, when the 500-meter 2004 XP 14 asteroid hurtled past the Earth at a distance of only 430,000 kilometers. An asteroid of several tens meters in diameter sped past Earth at the distance of approximately 80,000 kilometers in March 200924. There is a danger of Earth colliding with the 320-meter diameter asteroid Apophis on April 13, 2029. Other "apocalyptic" dates have been identified as well. Now that mankind is in possession of powerful nuclear weapons and missiles, it will probably be possible to destroy or divert potentially dangerous asteroids while they are far away from our planet. craters of diameters of 10 kilometers and more Experiments involving bombardment of extraterrestrial ob- Ancient discovered with the help of an aerial photo survey jects have already started: in July 2005, the spacecraft Deep (Vokrug Sveta, July, 2003) Impact successfully hit Comet Tempel 1. Special services have been established, such as Spaceguard, which monitors near space25. If timely detected, attempts will be made to destroy potentially dangerous extraterrestrial objects or change their trajectory to avoid catastrophic collision. Earth's collision with a comet also cannot be ruled out and had probably occurred in the past (the Tungus Catastrophe of 1908?). Obviously dangerous are stray objects penetrating into the Solar System from beyond, as it is much harder to detect and compute the trajectories of such objects than those revolving around the Sun26. Earth is permanently bombarded with cosmic dust solid particles with sizes up to hundreds of micrometers; reportedly, the total amount of cosmic dust deposited on the Earth's surface annually is in the range from 100,000 tons to 1 million tons. As extraterrestrial bodies periodically bombard our plant, it cannot be ruled out that they may bring organic molecules or even some protozoa with them. This provides the basis for the so-called theory of panspermia, according to which the seeds of life were brought to Earth by comets or asteroids from deep space. (This theory, however, still leaves unanswered the question of the origin of life, only shifting it further away into deep space). According to another theory, life on the planet originated from molecules that formed here on Earth in extreme conditions, such as volcanic eruptions. Another possible danger might come from alien microbes, viruses, or other unknown organisms A crater 180 kilometers in diameter located near the coast of Mexico (Vokrug Sveta magazine, July 2003) that happen to survive here, coexisting and even come into symbiosis with native organisms.

Interestingly, it was detected when only few days were left to its rapprochement with the Earth. Beginning from 1998, NASA sponsored efforts by a group of observatories to ensure timely detection of up to 90% of all objects which are over 800 meters in diameter. The estimated number of such objects that have entered the Earth's neighborhood since the project's start is 1,100; three-quarters of them have been detected. By year 2020 it is planned to upgrade Spaceguard to a new level of accuracy so that smaller objects (from 150 meters in diameter) could be detected. The estimated number of such objects is approximately 12,000. To achieve this goal it will be required to commission a number of new telescopes in the State of Hawaii, continental United States and Chile. 26 It is not clear whether it is possible for an asteroid made of antimatter to appear in the Solar System. If such a thing were to happen, an asteroid with relatively small mass could inflict major damage (see Footnote 9 to Chapter 12). All we know for certain at this point is that the flows of cosmic particles reaching our planet do contain antiparticles.
24 25

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

206

Although we have become used to the thought that we are self-contained and independent, that we live on a separate planet provided with everything necessary plus solar radiation, the truth is that the Earth, in addition to bombardment by extraterrestrial solid objects, is regularly subjected to external irradiation of various kinds. Some of these radiations are benign, but others may be dangerous for humans. Benign, to a certain extent, are the flows of cosmic particles that come from deep space and are flying through all of us at every minute. The origin of these particles is not known (they may be generated by catastrophes occurring in deep space), but their energy is so high that some of them penetrate the atmosphere and are not diverted by the Earth's magnetic field. Adding to this is Solar radiation. While passing through the human body, high-speed elementary particles produce an ionizing effect, causing us to receive doses of radiation. Other sources of radiation include subsoil rocks that contain radioactive materials and, of course, technogenic sources. Such doses, however, cause no harm to the human organism. Moreover, they often produce the positive effect of promoting mutation. The result is that children are not just exact copies of their parents; i.e., the necessary condition for evolution is met. After all, homo sapiens appeared as a result of numerous stages of accumulation and hereditary transmission of mutations that proved useful and contributed to the organism's survivability. There are many causes of mutations, but irradiation, specifically exposure to cosmic rays, has been one of the main driving forces of evolution on this planet. An increased rate of mutation and, therefore, speed of evolution may be caused by increased cosmic radiation, which, in turn, may be caused by supernova explosions (see below) or weakening of the Earth's magnetic field (specifically in periods of polar reversal). It is important to note that going into outer space means losing the protection of the Earth's atmosphere and magnetic field. Therefore, creation of artificial protective screens will be required27.

In addition to bombardment with accelerated cosmic particles and asteroids, the Earth may be subjected to the influence of other types of cosmic radiation. First of all, it is well known that bursts and explosions take place on the Sun at regular intervals. These bursts send intense flows of particles to Earth that cause weather change, failures in systems of communication and electricity supply, and may adversely affect human health28. (During periods of increased solar activity, astronauts move to more protected areas of their spacecraft). With our limited knowledge, we are unable to provide a full, reliable description of the processes taking place on the Sun and, hence, cannot predict what occurs there. We possess much less information about the countless faraway starts, some of which explode and sometimes turn into black holes or collapsars that consume other objects. Many cosmic processes generate bursts of powerful radiation, and the high-speed particles that reach to us influence our biosphere, as well as the Earth's surface and its deep interior. It is quite probable that these phenomena and processes have strongly influenced our planet and were among the causes of periodic extinctions of living beings on the Earth29 (or, conversely, they may have increased the rate of mutation, thus accelerating evolution). Some studies indicate that there is a certain correlation between cosmic radiation bursts and events on the Earth. Despite the fact that the sources of such radiation outbursts (novas and supernovas) are very far away, the intensity of radiation coming from them may exceed that generated by chromospheric solar flares. Radiy Prasolov argues that the intensity of the radiation generated by supernovas on the Earth's orbital path may be 100 or even 1,000 times higher than that generated by solar blasts; radiation of such intensity can cause massive extinction of plant and animal species30. With the appearance of new space observation instruments, more and more supernovas are detected, and it is becoming clear that they represent not a rare phenomenon, but rather a routine occurrence in the universe. It is good that there is normally a rather long time interval between the beginning of a blast and the moment when the emission reaches its maximum. Therefore, there is always some time left for us to take measures to protect ourselves: there are hundreds of days between the beginning of the process and its peak point. (It is not a coincidence that animals start behaving strangely before earthquakes or other natural disasters). Satellites that perform regular monitoring of outer space will probably provide us with early warning of approaching dangerous radiation. Our planet, together with the Solar System, is part of the Galaxy, and, together with the Galaxy, it travels through space in a complicated trajectory, periodically (once in many millions of years) entering dangerous zones. Collisions between stars and even constellations are not unusual for the universe. Fortunately, astronomers do not forecast cataclysms of such a scale in our neighborhood in the foreseeable future.

27 The atmospheric column above each square meter of the Earth's surface weighs 10 tons, and it is fairly difficult to provide a spacecraft with an equivalent "shield." It is also difficult to generate a protective magnetic field equivalent to the natural magnetic field of our planet. Pilots and passengers in modern airplanes (flying at heights over 10 kilometers) are also subject to additional irradiation. 28 The Russian scientist Alexander Chizhevsky, who lived and worked in the 20th century, believed that social disturbances, wars, revolutions, etc. are connected with solar activity.. 29 It cannot be ruled out that solar activity is responsible for climatic changes on the Earth, such as cooling, advancement of glaciers, ocean level changes, etc. However, changes in the Earth's orbit, migration of the Earth's poles, and other astronomical and geological processes are alternative causes of all these phenomena. It has been determined from studies of sea-floor sediments that major catastrophes causing the extinction of 30-95% of biological species have occurred five times over the past 450 million years with intervals of about 100 million years between them. 30 Effects of such radiation can be particularly catastrophic if their arrival coincides in time with a period of weakening of the Earth's magnetic field.

Chapter 15

207

Chapter 15

Crime (see also Criminal Psychology in Chapter 2) Violation of law, shadow economy and corruption exert a major influence on society. Crime, which is present in all spheres of life, is able to weaken and even destroy the state. In addition to crimes committed by individuals, there are crimes committed by the governments and power structures against their own people and other states acts that may inflict irreparable damages. The latter include aggressive wars, genocide, repressions, deportations, creation and support of corruption-infested systems of governance. Also bordering on crime are acts of expropriation, currency devaluation and similar anti-popular measures. Totalitarian despotic regimes are primarily guilty of such. Nevertheless, ghastly events, sometimes big-time ones, also happen in countries that portray themselves as democratic and progressive.
n primitive ancient societies, governance was based primarily on personal responsibility enforced in a family or clan. This system worked well at that stage of development. Later, as governments appeared, laws were written and law enforcement agencies were established, crime became an increasingly tempting occupation, and this stimulated its own "development" in terms of both scale and intricacy. Simultaneously, the influence of crime on social life increased. In the modern word, massive violations of the law, the shadow economy and corruption are causing many to change their views and lifestyle. Pervading almost all spheres of life, crime has the potential to weaken governments and even cause them to fall1. Although crime has been traditionally understood mostly as an individual or group activity, it is not rare for crimes to be committed by governments or parts of them. Here, we will discuss the following categories of crime: Crimes by the state against people, such as repression; violation of rights and freedoms; ethnically, socially or racially motivated discrimination; etc. Crimes by one state against another, such as violation of international treaties, wars of aggression, etc. Crimes by individuals or groups of people, such as murder, theft, banditry, swindling, fraudulent financial schemes, false advertising, etc. Crimes by officials, such as corruption, abuse of office for personal enrichment, or intentional violation of office policies and regulations, similar violations committed by judicial bodies. Crimes by the State against People It is obvious that the first two types of crime, i.e., statesponsored ones, bring more harm to people than the last two types. History has seen many despotic and/or totalitarian regimes that practiced massive repression. The most recent examples include the Soviet Union's GULAG, Nazi Germany's death camps and genocide in Cambodia. Rather often, governments have substituted "the principle of expediency" for law and used secret police and psychiatry (electroshock, lobotomy, drugs) as means of political struggle. Special psychiatric clinics2 have been established for this purpose. Such fundamental principles as presumption of innocence, the right to protection from retroactive criminal law, equality before the law and freedom of speech were neglected by the Soviet government, although they were formally recognized. Engaging in "anti-Soviet propaganda" was a punishable crime, and the Soviet state was terribly harsh on those who criticized the system or its leaders. Massive political repressions have taken place in many countries. It is enough to recall the notorious Cultural Revolution and Tiananmen Square events in China, political repressions in Argentina, Chile, etc. Although international human rights organizations were established and have been active since the early 20th century, the governments of many countries are still violating human rights and freedoms and practicing repression against their own people. Until recently, the democratic countries and the world community as a whole of1 According to official statistics, 200,000 crimes are committed on the planet every hour. In all likelihood, the real number is much bigger because most of the committed crimes remain unrecorded. 2 Quite often the use of such "methods" reduces people to mental and physical degradation.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

208

States often practice other types of violations that significantly affect social life and public attitudes. For example, though never officially declared or even admitted, ethnic discrimination in education and employment was practiced in the Soviet Union. State and Communist Party functionaries received regular off-payroll extra payments (kind of a second salary), enjoyed special allocation of normally unobtainable products at half its normal price as well as premium class services also at severely reduced state-subsidized prices (the so-called "Kremlin rations")3, apartments were provided to them at a floor-space-per-person quota considerably higher than that established for ordinary people, and they enjoyed many other privileges.

ten lacked the will (or decisiveness) to intervene in order to stop massive legal violations from being committed in a sovereign state, but the world is gradually changing and the practice of imposing sanctions against countries where people's rights are curtailed has come into being.

Crimes against the environment, such as heavy toxic emissions, air, water and soil pollution and industrial safety violations fraught with danger to human health and life are often left with impunity. According to Andrei Sakharov's assessments, a nuclear test explosion in the atmosphere equivalent to one megaton of TNT will causes the premature death of 6,500 people. (Recall the insane experiment of exploding a 50megaton H-bomb near Novaya Zemlya). It is well known that industry is harmful for the environment. Maximum permissible discharges and maximum permissible concentrations for practically all known toxic substances found in industrial emissions have been determined and reflected in the appropriate antipollution standards. These norms, however, are often violated, and there are many cities in the world where people are living in conditions almost unbearable and unsuitable for human life. One should not forget that one of the basic functions of government is to ensure safety (protection from both internal and external threats) for its citizens. Situations in which governments use their power for criminal ends while demonstrating an inability to curb crime, reduce technogenic disasters, control industrial emissions, etc., should not be tolerated4. During periods of reform, it is particularly difficult to judge what is right and what is wrong. After all, reforms sometimes reverse laws, and what was condemned as criminal activity against the former regime is praised as progressive and rightful. Economic and business policies and systems also undergo sweeping changes. For example, before the free market reforms of the 1990s, almost all kinds of private entrepreneurship, as well as foreign currency exchange, were classified as crimes in the Soviet Union, the law stipulating severe punishment for such activities, up to the death sentence. Therefore, in times of reform, the notions of permissible and forbidden may become vague and overlapping, which provides the adventurous people with the opportunity to indulge in questionable activities, while the government, for its part, acquires the opportunity to prosecute those who have barely violated the newly established, and sometimes vaguely worded, laws. It takes time for a new order to be understood and accepted by the broad public and for the law enforcement agencies to become accustomed to the new rules. The peak moments of a change of power are often accompanied by disturbances, looting, plundering, mafia-style clashes and other crimes (here it is appropriate to recall the much troubled 1990s in Russia). Becoming engulfed in such criminal activities are often those who seemed to be quiet and law-abiding people, as their base instincts have gotten the better of them under the influence of mob law (see Chapter 2). The latter, however, belongs to the third type of crime on my list: "crimes by individuals or groups of ordinary people." Crimes by One State Against Another

Military conflicts and wars were discussed before. Here, I will limit myself to reiterating that as a rule the party that begins a war is committing a crime, except for cases of defensive wars or wars for liberation waged against invaders. Recently, the list of justifiable wars has added so-called "preventive wars," provided that they are sufficiently motivated and directed against a real danger. In many cases, however, states follow the Carl Von Clausewitz's famous line: "war is merely a continuation of politics by other means." In practice, war criminals are rarely taken to courts5. It seems obvious that preparation for war, aggression, or development of weapons of mass destruction should be regarded as sufficient grounds for international organizations to intervene. Nevertheless, international interference does not take place every time it is appropriate and justifiable. One can only be surprised that general public tends to perceive news about military invasions as something far less shocking than news about a "common" murder. This can be explained (but not pardoned) by the fact that military conflicts have become a frequent occurrence and, hence, are
A popular joke at that time was that "the People and Party Are One Team, but They Go To Different Stores." It is well known that, unlike crimes committed by individuals or groups of people, state-sponsored crimes rarely get taken to court. 5 Such rare incidents include, for example, the Nuremberg Trial and the trials of the former Yugoslavia and Iraq leaders.
3 4

Chapter 15

209

pardoned) by the fact that military conflicts have become a frequent occurrence and, hence, are perceived as a routine, almost banal piece of news. A special place is occupied by terrorism: with the present high level of technology, it is possible for small groups to attack strong and well-armed countries and commit mass murder of civilians. From the viewpoint of internationally accepted norms and conventions, such activities are classified as "crime," but terrorists are of a different opinion based on their own understanding of what is right and what is wrong. Means of combating terrorism include preventive military campaigns against countries where terrorist bases are located, as well as against countries that have come close to producing weapons of mass destruction. These are wars that are ongoing, and they are not always mandated by international organizations. The line between justifiable and criminal war is sometimes hard to draw. A recent example of an unmotivated and brutal war is the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan, a war with the death toll of approximately one million Afghanis and 15,000 Soviet servicemen6. A war, which deserves to be classified as almost an aggressive war, is being waged by the United States on Iraq and serious clashes are taking place between the Palestinians and the Israeli (see also Chapter 5). The cataclysms and anarchy that accompany wars create a fertile medium for violence against civilians and prisoners of war, plundering, looting and other crimes. It takes time for a war-troubled society to return to peaceful life and for its people to depart from an all-pervasive criminal lifestyle. As was more than once noted in the previous chapters, it is time for mankind to adopt a radically different mentality and for the governments of certain countries to change their policies, as the current tendency toward escalation of war is fraught with the danger of a disaster on a global scale. Crimes by Individuals or Groups of People Each person has genetically imbued positive and negative traits, and the development of these traits depends on their upbringing, living conditions and circumstances, fear of punishment, etc. It often happens that a person is tempted to violate the law, hoping to get away with it. A definitive statement on this issue was once made by Leo Tolstoy: "Nine out of every ten acts of wrongdoing can be adequately explained by stupidity." In many cases crimes are committed out of need, under coercion, under the influence of a bad example, or in a state of alcohol or drug intoxication. Serving a sentence in a penitentiary system facility often fails to achieve its correctional goal, but rather works to develop one's criminal inclinations. Therefore, the penitentiary system is more of something to frighten those who have not yet committed a crime. Juvenile crime represents a special problem, as those who are under legal age are immune to criminal prosecution, and this immunity is often used by adult criminals who entice adolescents into criminal activities7. Children often do not understand what they are doing or the consequences of their activities, and the natural aggressive instincts are stronger in them. Widespread crimes against children are household violence (126,000 cases per year, according to Izvestia, June 18, 2009) and pedophilia. A special category of crimes is those committed by people in altered states of consciousness, specifically in the affective state; being in an altered state of consciousness is recognized as sufficient grounds for a person to be relieved of legal responsibility for his or her behavior (for more details, see Chapter 2). The list of dangerous crimes includes such crimes as fraud, tax evasion, money laundering, unofficial salaries paid in cash, money counterfeiting8, etc. It is not always possible to draw a clear line between criminal activity and business entrepreneurship. In the recent past in Russia, financial pyramids and other fraudulent financial schemes were enormously popular, in which some profited on the broad public's ignorance of the market economy. Other countries were through this plague a few centuries ago (see, for example, Charles Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds, cited in the References section of this book). In addiThe more recent antiterrorist operation led by the United States and Great Britain and spearheaded against the Taliban failed to achieve liquidation of organizational and financial infrastructures of the world Islamic network. 7 In Russia, potentially dangerous as culprits of future crimes are the 800,000 people who are currently serving time or have served their sentence and set free. In addition to that, there are hundreds of thousands (maybe even millions) of homeless children. Reportedly, about 3,000 murders are committed by children in Russia every year. 8 Counterfeit dollar bills currently circulating in the world amount to $100 million; there are approximately three counterfeit dollar bills per every 10,000 genuine ones.
6

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

210

tion to educating and warning the public, governments should take other preventive measures against such fraudulent activity. Among other appalling activities I would like to note misleading advertising; sale of substandard goods instead of standard ones, especially falsified pharmaceuticals; political fraud; and promulgation of false information through the media. Piracy at sea has seen a revival recently, particularly off-shore Somalia and Nigeria. There were some 300 pirate attacks in 2008, with 49 vessels and 900 people seized. The amount harvested by the pirates in ransoms hit $150 million. A joint naval force of several states has so far been unable to put an end to the pirate attacks. Progress in information technology has begotten a new type of crime that has become very widespread in the developed word. These crimes include hacking; promulgation of slander, pornography, or extremist or nationalist propaganda on the Internet or other common access networks; theft of confidential information (including "personality theft" the use of stolen credit cards, checkbooks, etc.). Another serious problem is insufficient protection for intellectual property and copyrights on the Internet and in print. Pirated material constitutes about one-third of the world sale of music CDs (in Russia, the figure is close to two-thirds), which inflicts billion-dollar damages in lost profit to copyright holders. Losses of the same scale are suffered by the film industry. Damage from obtrusive advertisement, specifically junk mail or spam often paid for by the recipient, are equal to several dozens of billions of dollars a year. The weakening of law enforcement and state control agencies in Russia has caused a sizable growth in the crime rate: counterfeit vodka alone reaps a death toll of about 100 people every day, with murder accounting for the same number of deaths. Murder is often a continuation of household squabbles and violence. Almost every business in this country, big or small, pays tribute or "shadow taxes" to criminal structures. The term for this illegal practice is kryshevaniye ("paying the roof"). In rural areas, well-to-do farmers happen to be attacked. They work really hard and, unlike many of their alcohol-indulgent neighbors, manage to earn a decent living. Press reports on the crime situation in Russia lead us to conclude that violent crime remains one of the most acute problems in this part of the world9. In a situation of moral decline and poor efficiency of law enforcement agencies, contract murder has become one of the most convenient ways of getting rid of a person who has gotten in the way, be it a competitor, a journalist, a financier or a law enforcement officer. There are about 700 convicted criminals serving time in prisons and hard labor camps per every 100,000 of the adult population in Russia. In the United States, the figure is roughly the same. The corresponding figure for Great Britain is 125, for Germany and France it is 90, and for Finland it is about 50. Criminal kingpins are obviously interested in securing high posts in the power structures in order to acquire immunity from criminal prosecution. They often succeed in this, and the door opens for them to commit crimes with impunity, without any fear of prosecution. Criminal groups widely use the latest achievements of science and technology and hire the best experts and professionals to serve their needs. They manage to produce explosives out of substances and components available for industrial, agricultural, or medical use, and use mobile telephones, cooker timers and other available machines to produce time bombs. In Russia, criminals and terrorists take advantage of the abundance of ammunition dumps in the country, the poor control and guarding of them and the proneness of the guards to corruption. Many who have failed to make a decent carrier get dragged into the criminal world, and once there cannot find a way back. Criminal communities protect their members, render them assistance, and even help them out of prison using huge amounts of money from the community's common cash fund, the so-called "obshchak." Criminal communities often resemble miniature societies with their own codes of law; their members are well disciplined and strictly observe the code. Criminals often appear more dynamic and effective than lawmakers and law-enforcement agencies. They manage to launch their own "businesses" by finding loopholes in legislation or breaches in the system of control10, even developing their own ideologies to justify criminal activity. As far as murder is concerned (understood in the broad sense), there are reasons to hope that it will be completely outlawed in the future in all its forms, including war and the death penalty. The history of mankind is a ghastly picture of endless killing. Despite declaring forgiveness as their fundamental principle, the world religions found ways to justify murder. The Bible Encyclopedia (Nikifor, 1891) says that "not

Crime rate tends to increase in time: In Moscow, for example, the per capita rate of violent crimes has increased approximately ten-fold over the last 150 years. It turns out that the progress of science and technology as well as the growing intricacy of the state bureaucratic structures stimulate both crime rate and crime variety. Improvements in the legislation, criminal investigation and crime control as well as the numerical strength of the law enforcement agencies fail to keep pace with the growth of crime. 10 Similar "methods" are often employed by legal entrepreneurs too, especially during times of reforms, when, as was noted above, it is difficult to draw a distinct line between what is legal and what is not.
9

Chapter 15

211

every act of taking away of a human life shall be classified as a crime of murder. The exceptions include the following cases: a) when life is taken away from a criminal who is sentenced to death; b) when one kills at war fighting for one's monarch and motherland." According to the Amnesty International data, 1,252 people were executed in 24 countries of the world in 2007 and another 3,347 people were death-sentenced in 51 countries. Capital punishment is abolished in 130 countries while it is actually practiced in some 70 countries. One of mankind's most acute problems today is growing drug abuse11. According to assessments made by the US National Institute on Drug Abuse, the country's losses related to drug addition reach up to $150 billion per year. Revenues from drug sales worldwide are estimated at $500 billion per year12. In Russia, the number of drug users is estimated at 4 million to 6 million people; dozens of tons of drugs are confiscated by the police every year. Russia is on the drug route from Afghanistan (which accounts for 93% of the world opium poppies production13) to Europe, and is a major market for drugs in its own right. Much effort is put into combating drug addiction on both national and international levels, but by and large these measures are not sufficiently effective and fail to produce any significant reduction in the drug consumption. Globalization and related processes give momentum to such dangerous crimes as drug trafficking, the illegal weapons trade14, illegal transportation of people across the borders for subsequent criminal exploitation, smuggling and counterfeiting of valuable cultural relics, money laundering, computer crimes, piracy, etc. The most recent criminal activity is trade in human organs15. The international trade in human beings is estimated at about 1 million of people a year, a considerable proportion of them being so-called sex slaves16. Many billions of criminal dollars are laundered every year. The existence and use of offshore zones is only marginally acceptable or even beyond the legally tolerable limit. International crime is well organized, boasting an intricate hierarchical system and a widespread network of outlets and divisions with clear-cut instructions in effect for each tier of the system; also, they enjoy the support of the media, the best lawyers and even some government officials. The turnover of the world shadow economy comes to several trillions of dollars and is comparable to the turnover of the legal economy. Crimes of Officials The most widespread crimes by state servants include bribery, criminal negligence and abuse of office for personal gains. "For all forms of government it is most important to arrange things so that functionaries cannot capitalize," as Aristotle wrote in the 4th century BC. Corruption (from the Latin word corruptio) is a plague of both totalitarian and democratic countries17. According to information available from the International Monetary Fund, the share of the shadow economy in GDP ranges in different countries from 10 to 70%, and is perpetually increasing. A few years ago, it was reported to be 9-10% in the United States, Austria and Switzerland and 15-20% in the Scandinavian countries. As far as Russia is concerned, the State Statistics Committee (Goskomstat) recently reported it to be 1520%, while the Ministry of Internal Affairs estimated it at 40%. Russia was No. 147 out of a total of
11 There are many myths created to justify the use of narcotic drugs, including statements that drugs are cure from depression, means of getting more joy of sex, etc. Also stimulating drug addiction are the widely publicized stories about drug-related adventures of various rock stars who are perceived as idols by many young people. 12 Opium production in Afghanistan has come close to 15,000 tons annually. 13 Since 2001, when the U.S. and NATO military contingents were introduced in Afghanistan, the opium poppies production in that country has increased nearly 50-fold. 14 It is appropriate to note that legal trade in weapons is an anachronism too in our time when the very existence of mankind is at stake and depends on how quickly we will manage to break the habit of "toying" with weapons inventing, duplicating, proliferating and, of course, using. The issue of curbing these activities must be put on the todays agenda. I would like to hope that the day is coming soon when all kinds of trade in weapons for general public (except, perhaps, hunting guns) will be banned. 15 The United Nations General Assembly is too taking measures aimed at combating international crime. The Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children, and a number of other international acts have been adopted. 16 According to information published in open sources, the combined number of people kept as slaves in the world currently equals several dozens of millions. 17 "Before the 18th century, the practice of bribe-taking by government officials was legal in Russia. State officials were supposed to live off the 'feeding' provided to them by those interested in their activity. Bribery in any form was classified as criminal offense in 1715 beginning when state officials in Russia started being paid fixed salaries. As things stand today, the volume of corruption in Russia is estimated at $250-300 billion per year (this does not include corruption on the top federal level of authority and business elite). Bribes normally given by businessmen to state officials are in the range of $10,000-$150,000." (quoted from Wikipedia).

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

212

180 countries that appeared on a world corruption ranking list by the Transparency International Center, 200818. Almost any bureaucrat can expedite or, on the contrary, slow down the process of document processing. If a bureaucrat has the authority to make decisions, he or she thus acquires the opportunity to extort illegal fees or bribes19. It is very difficult to catch this person red-handed, and even if caught, a corrupt official still has the chance to get away with it by bribing the inspector20. Kickbacks or bribes are commonly given to bureaucrats for their assistance in expediting execution of contracts, business registration, etc.21 Profitable positions are also a merchandise22. Bribery in higher educational institutions has acquired an unprecedented scale: the "fee" for enrollment is up to several dozens of thousands of dollars and, the "pass-your-exam fee" can run up to several hundreds of dollars23. Corruption is becoming appalling in the state agencies in charge of law enforcement and control. "The judicial system has become one of Russia's largest 'corruption markets.' Judiciary corruption comprises several tiers and levels. For example, there is a system for causing criminal cases to fall apart and there is a system for supporting unfriendly takeovers" (Valery Zorkin, chairman of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation, 2000)24. It is believed that 90% of the total amount of bribe money is consumed by the executive branch of power25. As regards legislators and their aides, there is a legitimized system for them to harvest extra money lobbyism26. In effect, lobbyism means that corporate interests prevail over those of the broad public when it comes to legislative decision-making. There are countries where lobbyism is banned, but there are others who argue that it helps in finding the best solutions. According to expert estimates, the amount of money given out in bribes in Russia today is several tens of billions of dollars a year. In China, local experts assess corruption-related losses at 8% of GDP. Trials of state officials, including topranking ones, are routine in China. Moreover, they are often publicly executed. A million-person-strong army of people who live off bribes, who found a niche for themselves in the system of corruption, is interested in the preservation of the status quo and is opposed to any radical change. According to Sabir Kekhlerov, deputy prosecutor general of the Russian Federation, "only 1-2% of incidents of bribery end up in criminal punishment for the culprit." "Without genuine competition in the political area, it is senseless to take measures to curb corruption. Those in power will never pull themselves out of the morass of corruption unless they feel watched by poLast position in the rating corresponds to the highest level of corruption. In a poll held to find out what people think to be the main causes of corruption, 40% named law imperfection and government inefficiency, approximately the same number of respondents named greed and moral decline, and the remaining 20% named general public's ignorance of law and legal policies and practices (from Izvestia, July 27, 2005). 20 Back in pre-Revolutionary Russia, a popular saying went that "our land is plentiful in resources, but is badly ruled." 21 Kickbacks can reach as high as 30% of the subject contract's value. In dollar terms, this translated into hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars. One does not have to carry out a special investigation to see that the number of those buying elite class apartments and countryside houses is well above the number of legally operating businessmen and other categories of people whose legal income is of that order of magnitude.. 22 The following is what Izvestia analyst and reviewer Valery Vyzhutovich wrote about the prices of high administrative posts in the Republic of Dagestan, Russian Federation: "Though exact prices may vary depending on the market situation, basic tariffs are no secret. The post of regional administration head sells for $150,000 and the minister post is from $450,000 to $500,000." (Izvestia, June 30, 2005). Kickback rates in Russia today are as follows: The cost of receiving a government contract is 20% of the contract's value; the cost of evading taxation is 30-50% of the amount due paid; the cost of getting a post in the top echelons of power is $ 5-10 million (Izvestia, Nedelya v Moskve, February 22, 2008). According to the recent publication in Izvestia (Izvestia, May 08, 2009), the cost of receiving a position in the Moscow's criminal police is up to $25,000, depending on how high the desired position is. 23 According to the information published in the press, this kind of bribes sum up to over $300 million per year in Russia (see, for example, Izvestia, June 21, 2005). 24 The number of complaints filed by Russian Federation citizens with the European Court totaled 19,000 in 2004. 25 According to Transparency International, the proportion of those in the Russian population who had at least once given a bribe increased from 17% as of 2007 to 29% as of 2009. 26 For example, a parliament member can draw the attention of his colleagues to a certain issue, arrange for his "client" to meet with an influential government functionary, file a parliamentary inquiry, etc. For each of these actions he may charge several thousands of dollars. Here it is appropriate to quote the Argumenty i Fakty newspaper, No 46, 2004: "An oil tycoon frankly told us: '$200 million will be enough to buy up half the State Duma and have 200 faithful partners there. As regards ourselves, we have 30-40 trusted people in the parliament. This is enough for us to get the laws we want passed.'" One can also read in Argumenty I Fakty (No 48, 2004) that "we should have a law stipulating a harsher punishment for bribery and corruption in office. Irresponsibility begets impunity, impunity begets arbitrariness which is followed by chaos, anarchy and collapse of the state."
18 19

Chapter 15

213

litical competitors and society The struggle against corruption cannot be effective in a situation in which there are no independent media," Ella Panfilova, director of the Russian Center for Anticorruption Initiatives, said. "It is the 'corruption tax' that makes our economy uncompetitive. The system of kickbacks has a detrimental impact on the efficiency of state regulatory mechanisms" (Leonid Radzikhovsky, Izvestia, July 2006). Sometimes bordering on the illegal are such activities where a country launches a campaign of lobbying its interests (or propagandizing its views) in other countries. Widespread practice nowadays is that of sponsoring the publication of desired articles and interviews in foreign medias (see also Chapter 3). Russia is now attempting to curb corruption. The following are excerpts from the speech made by President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev at the 5th Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum held on February 15, 2008: " Civil servants must realize that they are in the employ of society and that they are responsible before the whole of Russian society, before Russia's citizens. While cutting back excess numbers of civil servants we also need to introduce a system of suitable material incentives to encourage highly qualified professionals into the civil service. Perhaps most important point of all is that in carrying out these measures we must also enter into real battle, a difficult battle, with the serious disease that has infected our society corruption. We must protect the real independence of the media, which provides the channels for feedback between society as a whole and the state authorities. We must eliminate the practice of unfair decisions made through connections or for money. We need to draw up a system of measures aimed at compensating citizens and organizations for losses suffered as a result of unjust decisions and red tape in the court system. We need to work further on making our justice system more human, above all by relaxing suppression measures taken before a court verdict is passed, and also by improving conditions in the countrys prison system. ..." One of the possible ways to combat corruption is to introduce a more transparent procedure of decision-making and the practice of paying incentive bonuses to bureaucrats for a long exemplary service record. In a number of countries, state officials have to prove the legal origin of the money they pay for their property and are not allowed to go into business. It might be helpful to cut the number of bureaucratic structures required to pass to obtain a document approval, to promote transparency on all levels of authority and to minimize personal contacts between bureaucrats and their potential "clients." For the latter purpose, it would be useful to require all document exchanges to be made via e-mail. In the coming information era, it will be possible for many important decisions to be made without the personal involvement of people; they will be made by an artificial-intelligence-enabled computer (of course, if the idea is not be spoiled by programming such supercomputers to charge bribes and kickbacks). Russia, along with other countries, has signed the Council of Europe's Criminal Law Convention on Corruption. It is not the product of a whim that effective struggle against corruption is one of the requirements set for a country to be admitted to the European Union. It would not be correct to say that corruption is an inevitable evil. There are countries where corruption is almost nonexistent Finland, New Zealand, Denmark, Iceland and several more. There are known examples where governments have succeeded in rooting out corruption within a historically brief period of time. Usually, the most effective means for curbing corruption have been measures of effective political and public control over bureaucrats. A dictatorship is also effective for phasing corruption out. The example of Singapore, which was one of world's the most corrupt and economically inefficient countries in the middle of the 20th century, is instructive. Today, Singapore is among the world's five least corrupt countries. It is also important for a government to maintain a culture of safety at a high level, as this directly affects the quality of life (see the next chapter for more details). Most dangerous are blunders committed out of negligence by officers in charge of hazardous facilities. Sometimes such mistakes are considered a punishable clime. Finally, there is the ugly phenomenon of hazing in the army. Newly recruited conscripts are often severely brutalized, even murdered, including by their officers. In concluding this chapter, I would like to note that criminal science and criminal investigation techniques are on a par with the evolution and increasing sophistication of crime. The so-called truth serums, substances that affect human consciousness in such a way that a person loses the ability to tell lies or conceal information, appeared in the 20th century27. Similar results can be achieved by using a polygraph, a device monitoring human organism somatic reactions during interrogation28. In the United States, such devices have been used for about 40 years, and they are known in Russia as well29; Legal asFor example, scopolamine, mescaline, sodium pentothal, LSD and marijuana. It is proven that a person who is telling lies develops a faster heartbeat, voice and facial expression undergo changes, sweating beings or increases, etc. 29 The use of polygraphs gained momentum in Russia after the adoption of the "Law on Anti-Crime Operations and Crime Detection" in 1992. Reportedly, 50,000 people undergo lie detector tests every year.
27 28

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

214

pects of and possible limits to use of polygraphs are being considered and discussions are under way as to what categories of suspects can be subjected to polygraph interrogation and to what extent the results of such interrogation can be trusted30. It is believed that polygraphs are 90-95% reliable. *** In addition to the official crime statistics, one should not forget that a large number of crimes are never recorded (presumably over one-half), especially domestic violence31. As regards the prospects for the future, it is hardly reasonable to hope that mankind will overcome crime any time soon. Motivations for crime will remain strong as long as social and material inequality, poor upbringing, obsessive ambitions, etc exist. Adding to these are crimes committed in a state of psychological disturbance and in times of social crisis. Law enforcement officers joke that "if you are not in prison, it doesn't mean that you are very honest; it only means that we are not doing our job well enough." As the old saying goes, "no one is safe from poverty or prison." Generally speaking, the struggle against crime and ensuring public safety are primarily the duty of the government. Progress in crime-rate reduction depends primarily on the performance of the law-enforcement agencies, though anticrime propaganda and proper education and enlightenment of the population are also important. In certain countries, sometimes referred to as "law-abiding countries," not only is the overwhelming majority of the population obedient of the law, but also each citizen considers it to be his or her duty to immediately report a noticed legal violation to the police. (This, however, does not mean that these countries are 100% free from crime.) The understanding of crime may differ depending on religion, constitution and public consciousness. For example, moneylending, adultery and antireligious statements are classified as criminal offenses in Islamic states. Much of what is allowable and even normal in the West can cost one's life in the East. Here it is appropriate to recall that in certain epochs in a number of countries various fanatic acts, such as human sacrifice, were perceived as normal. Laws change, and these changes are to a large extent dictated by the needs of a country's survival. The last few centuries saw radical changes in the human mentality thanks to the dissemination of humanism and liberalism, but this has not eliminated crime. Even the bestgoverned countries cannot boast a full victory over this evil. A criminal world ruled by criminal kingpins is a source of support for terrorists and a fertile medium in which they may be born.

The use of the lie detector has a long historical record. As far back as 2000 years ago there was a practice in China whereby a suspect placed a handful of dry rice into his mouth: if the rice remained dry (no salivation), this was accepted as proof of guilt. Blood pressure measurement during interrogation was practiced in the United States back in 1913. These are but a few examples. 31 According to the World Health Organization's death statistics for 2000, 310,000 people died in military conflicts, 199,000 fell victims to domestic violence and 815,000 committed suicide.
30

Chapter 16

215

Chapter 16

Culture of Security Though civilization has succeeded in lengthening the average life span, it has given birth to quite a few destructive factors such as traffic accidents, industrial failures, environmental pollution, and others. People's safety often depends on the culture of their behavior: carelessness, underestimation of danger, or neglect of preventive measures often bring about disease or deaths. As the encyclopedia Globalistics puts it, "as far as global threats, dangers to the whole world, are concerned, experience proves that spontaneous economic steps are unable to reduce them. It is necessary to establish norms of behavior for everyone to obey. These norms should include a ban on the use of force and an overall democratic concept of world development."
t might appear that our dominant position on the planet and the growth of living standards for a considerable part of the world population are grounds for optimism. At the same time, in many countries most people have poor life expectancy with lives heavily loaded with hardship; at the other extreme, the wealthy citizens of the rich countries face the risk of being killed in a traffic accident or technogenic catastrophe or becoming a victim of food poisoning, crime, drug abuse, etc. Although civilization has succeeded in nearly quadrupling the average life expectancy as compared to that in the primitive era, it has begotten many harmful technogenic effects. In the modern era, serious illness or even death are often caused by carelessness, underestimation of danger or neglect of preventive measures. Therefore, the culture of security represents an essential component of the general culture. Previous chapters featured the issues of environmental pollution, resource depletion, weapons of mass destruction and threats from without, and the conclusion was drawn that further pursuit of aggressive policies by the countries of the world is impermissible. For the sake of better stability and safety, new solutions need to be found for industries, transportation, power generation, etc. and more effective medicines and health care techniques need to be developed and implemented. These are but a few of the tasks that need to be accomplished. Listed herebelow are the principal hazards facing mankind as a whole and each individual inhabitant of the planet in particular: Natural disasters: fires, floods, earthquakes, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunamis, avalanches, rockfalls, glacial collapse, landslides and mudflows. Natural effects: temperature that is too high or too low, solar radiation, lightning, poisonous insects, wild animals and birds1. Hazards related to seas and deserts. Asteroids and cosmic radiation2. Technogenic effects: accidents at factories, nuclear power plants, chemical plants and oil and gas storage facilities; during rocket launches; during transportation or storage of hazardous materials, such as ammunition, chemicals and radioactive materials; accidents at oil- and gas pipelines and high-voltage power lines; ground sinking; and topographic changes caused by major construction or fluid injection, including induced seismicity. The development of space has led to the appearance of another hazard orbiting trash3. Environmental pollution (air, water and soil pollution) with toxic chemicals, such as DDT, dioxins, pesticides, etc., and radioactive contamination. Global warming and sea level rise (here it is appropriate to recall that about 60% of the global population live in the coastal zones or lowlands). Destruction of gas hydrates near the sea floor and release of huge amounts of methane into the atmosphere. World economic crises engulfing many countries might trigger political or military clashes. Energy safety. The risk of interruptions of energy supply to industrial facilities and critical infrastructure. The risk of accidents at critical engineering structures, such as bridges, dams and tunnels, and on passenger transport, including motor vehicles, ships, railway trains and airplanes4. Household injuries, such as electrical shock, food poisoning, gas poisoning, falling elevators and utility line failure. Famine, bad foods or water. Insufficient health and medical care, stress, disease, suicide, health-destroying lifestyles, the effect of harmful radiations (with the long-term effects of radiation from mobile telephones still unknown), noise and vibra1 This includes the hazard of airplane collisions with birds: there are several thousand such accidents every year. Modern airliners are designed to withstand collision with birds, but may suffer damage if the latter is very large. Tame and trained predatory birds are specially kept by airports to scare off other birds. 2 See Chapter 14. 3 As things stand today, there are about 3,000 tons of orbiting trash comprising several thousand broken devices, parts and components. 4 According to U.S. statistics, civil aviation pilots and fishing fleet sailors are among the most dangerous professions, with workplace fatality rates of about 90 out of every 100,000 employees a year. In Russia, the most dangerous professions are firemen, policemen and businessmen (!).

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

216

One of the disasters which, strange as it may seem, mankind has almost gotten accustomed to is the huge death toll reaped by traffic accidents. Worldwide, some 1.2 million people are killed and another 20 million injured in traffic accidents during every year12. In dollar terms, the combined damages inflicted by traffic accidents total to over $500 billion. The total number of cars in the world is over 600 million. In Russia, the traffic accident mortality rate (calculated as the number of deaths for every 100,000 vehicles per year) is about 120, while the corresponding numbers in Sweden, Norway, Switzerland and Japan are in the range of 7-8. In Iran, however, it is 600, and in several African countries it is around one thousand. The death toll of traffic accidents in Russia is about 35,000 per year. The causes of such a high death rate in Russia are of both psychological (people's poor discipline) and technical (poor condition of roads and vehicles) origin13,14. Air transport is much safer compared to motor vehicles. The death toll of airplane crashes worldwide sums up to several thousand a year, while the combined distance covered by airline passengers is comparable to that covered by car
5 A general smallpox vaccination program was recently adopted in the United States. Similar plans have been adopted in Russia as well. "According to available forecasts, the probability is high of the appearance of a pandemic virus that would quickly spread around the world, killing dozens of millions, or maybe even hundreds of millions, of people," says Academician Dmitry Lvov, director of the Virology Institute. 6 In Russia, there are many thousands of burials of cattle killed by anthrax. Burial does not kill anthrax spores, which, like cholera germs, can remain dangerous for several decades. 7 The cause of drug addiction is the desire to escape from reality into altered states of consciousness. In addition to drugs, gambling (casinos, cards, races, gambling machines and other games of chance), computer games, television, etc. can be addictive. 8 This risk is primarily related to the fact that there may be some fundamental laws of nature which we have not discovered yet. For example, there are certain risks associated with the explosion of a powerful H-bomb. Currently being discussed are the risks associated with the launch of the Large Hadrone Collider built by the European Organization for Nuclear Research http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CERN (CERN). Also posing a threat are leaks of pathogenic germs. In the future, danger may come from nanorobots, various genetically modified organisms, etc. 9 War is the example of the most blatant neglect of human life security. 10 One of the most dangerous accidents involved the Soviet Union's first H-bomb-carrying submarine, K-19, in 1961. The accident could have triggered a nuclear war (see the American movie K-19: the Widowmaker). Later, there were several more accidents involving this submarine, in one of which nearly 30 of the crew were killed. In addition to K-19, there have been a number of accidents involving both Soviet and American nuclear submarines. 11 There is the Index of State Weakness in the Developing World http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2008/02_weak_states_index.aspx issued by the Brookings Institution the oldest think tank in the United States. The index is derived from such indicators as tempo of economic growth, per capita GDP, rate of inflation, income gap between the rich and the poor strata of the population. Also taken into account is the efficiency of law enforcement, government transparency and accountability, corruption, personal freedom, situation with the observance of human rights. Besides, it includes juvenile death rate, accessibility of education and life expectancy. According to recent rankings, Russia was 65 out of total 141 countries rated. 12According to statistics, a car ride is an order of magnitude more dangerous than an airplane flight of the same distance. 13 Russia recently adopted a Federal Target Program for Heightening Traffic Safety for the period from 2006-2012 with a budget of $2 billion, 15% of which is earmarked for financing propaganda of rule abeyance. 14 It is hardly reasonable to expect that the growing global-scale automobilization can be stopped. According to predictions, the yearly road fatality rate may exceed 2 million by 2020. At this moment, we can only fantasize that a solution to the problem will be found in the progress in information technologies that will make it possible for more people to work from home and, hence, help reduce traffic intensity. (It is presumed that staple provisions will be better organized as well and it will not be necessary to visit stores very often). Furthermore, progress in the field of vehicle steering automation will make car riding significantly safer. Finally, public transportation will probably improve as well. And, hopefully, people will become more disciplined.

tions, delayed or ill-qualified medical aid, epidemics caused by either natural or artificial pathogens5 or pathogens that have preserved in old burial sites6, addiction to drugs, alcohol, nicotine and other toxic substances7, obesity. Crime, including violent crime, domestic violence, sex crimes, financial fraud and corruption, and terrorism. Hazards related to staying in prison or a hard labor camp, in a sect or a criminal gang. Acts of lawlessness committed by the state against its citizens and other countries. Extreme sports, travel or fairground attractions such as bungee jumping, rollercoasters, etc., or hunting and other activities involving weapons. Scientific research, experiments involving chemical or biological material, explosives, radiation, lasers, new types of weapons, or nuclear tests. Experiments capable of causing unpredictable and dangerous consequences8. War9, including frontline clashes, actions against the civilian population; sieges; occupations; the use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons; mines and other hidden weapons; buried chemical weapons; civil war; intentional poisoning of the environment; extermination of plants and animals (the worst scenario here being a global-scale nuclear war followed by "nuclear winter"); use of weapons of mass destruction; accidents with carriers of weapons of mass destruction10, or accidents during the fabrication or transportation of such weapons. Other serious hazards include breaches of national security, social disturbance, (understood in the broad sense, including environmental, economic, technological and other aspects), leaks of secret information, social explosions, various misbegotten and not uncommon social experiments, moral decline of citizens and rulers, or misanthropic, chauvinistic ideologies or religious extremism leading to atrocities and massive extermination of people. Many of these problems are further exacerbated by rapid population growth, widening of the gap between the rich and the poor11.

Chapter 16

217

riders15. In the United States alone, the number of airline passengers is approaching 2 billion a year. Trains are also safer than cars. The problem of fossil fuel resource depletion is currently a subject of heated debate. Most "popular" fossil fuels will last for another 30-50 years, probably 100, provided that advanced (and more expensive) extraction methods are implemented. The resources of fuel for nuclear power plants will last much longer, and there are processes for nuclear fuel regeneration. The use of renewable energy sources, such as winds and tides, as well as natural fuels, is gaining momentum. For more than 50 years now, research has been under way with the aim to obtain a controllable nuclear fusion reaction, and a solution will probably be found within several decades. The technologies of obtaining usable energy from the light of the Sun are developing and becoming increasingly efficient. Technologies for energy saving and thrifty use of energy are far from the least important, Japan being the world leader in them. Technological breakthroughs and progress in development of space will open new horizons for human civilization. The possible consequences of such developments cannot be formulated at this point. Given that colossal amounts of energy are stored in matter (e = mc2), there are reasons to hope that ways will be found in the future to put this energy to use, not just the small portion of this energy that is released by nuclear fission or fusion used in present-day nuclear power plants and the hypothetical thermonuclear power plants of the future. The issue of achieving and strengthening energy security is addressed in The European Energy Charter of 1991, which has been ratified by nearly 50 countries.

Some 300 natural disasters and 500 technogenic catastrophes reportedly occur in the Russian Federation every year, impacting on thousands of people. Thirty thousand lives are snuffed out in murders, and the death toll from drinking fake vodka is probably even higher. Approximately one hundred people become HIVinfected in Russia every day. Sixty-five percent of men and some 30% of women are smokers16. High mortality rates are associated with various hazardous occupations, particularly coal mining every million tons of coal are paid for with more than one human life. Two hundred and fifty people were killed in 19 terrorist acts that occurred in 2003, and in 2004 the Beslan terrorist act alone claimed 331 human lives. Eleven thousand fires occurred in Moscow in 2003. Hundreds of thousands of people suffered from the nuclear accident in the Urals in 1957, many millions were victimized by the Chernobyl disaster of 198617, 18; and no adequate measures were taken to save the Aral Sea. There have been several events in recent history where millions died of hunger as a result of natural disasters and poor state management. Thus, 9.5 million people died in China in 1877-1878 and over 4 million people died in the Soviet Union in the 1930s. Hunger is still causing massive deaths today in a number of poor countries of the world. From time to time, massive deaths are caused by floods. Thus, 3.7 million people died in the 1931 Huang He flood and one million died in the 1970 flood in Bangladesh. The rate of natural disasters is tending to increase, which probably is related to global warming of the climate and our careless interference in the environment. The number of victims resulting from the choice of potentially dangerous places for a living is increasing with every passing year. Damages inflicted by natural disasters worldwide exceeded 100 billion in 2004, and in 2005 the US losses from Hurricane Katrina alone were twice that. "Particularly dangerous for Russian cities are floods (746 cities affected), landslides and landfalls (725 cities affected), earthquakes (103 cities affected), tornadoes (500 cities affected), avalanches (5 cities affected), mudflows (90 cities affected) and tsunamis (9 cities affected)," according to President of the Russian Academy of Science Yuri Osipov in 2002. Natural disasters often come as a result of a combination of a large number of lowprobability circumstances or events. Predictions that the World Ocean level will rise are creating concern. The development of human civilization and quest for new ways of moving forward have always been connected with risk and inevitable loss, but it is easy to see that these losses are not inevitably so high. Common causes of tragedy are inadequate care, negligence and lack of respect for the value of human life. Human life, which is already short for natural reasons, is further cut down by crime and other causes described above. Sixty to eighty percent of technological catastrophes occur as a result of the human factor, or, in other words, an unprofessional action or lack of knowledge or skill. In addition to incompetence, negative factors include irresponsibility and moral degradation of officials, which come from mentality and upbringing.

The accident rate in the air transport is normally calculated in terms of accidents per million flights. In 2006, for Western airlines this was equal to 0.65, while the corresponding figure for the CIS countries was in excess of 8. In Russia, airplane crashes in 2006 claimed about 300 human lives. 16 Approximately 25% of regular smokers die prematurely of lung cancer, cardiovascular diseases and lung emphysema. Approximately 5 million people die in the world every year of smoking-related diseases. It many developed countries of the world it is prohibited to smoke in public places, including Israel, Great Britain, the United States, Italy, Spain, France, Slovenia and some other. 17 Speaking at the 54th session of the UN General Assembly, then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan particularly noted: "The unprecedented nuclear catastrophe in Chernobyl directly affected the lives of more than 7 million people, including over 3 million children; the disaster caused nuclear contamination of 155,000 square kilometers worth of land area." 18 In his speech at the 5th Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum (February 2008), Russian President Dmitry Medvedev emphasized that: " we must first reduce deaths and disability caused by diseases that modern medicine already knows how to cure. We must work over these coming years to substantially reduce deaths from heart attacks, strokes, malignant tumors and road accidents, tackle infectious diseases and reduce the number of cases of disability caused by complex forms of diabetes and allergies. This is just the minimum program we need to carry out."
15

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

218

Obviously, in addition to heightened responsibility, risk reduction requires additional expenses. In any society or state, public security also depends on the distribution of wealth. The necessary calculations will inevitably involve such parameters as the costs of life and health. In developed countries, this problematic parameter is $250,000 or more (up to $3 million in the United States), while in other countries it can be as low as a few thousand dollars or even less. Until recently, insurance payments in Russia were as low as 100,000 rubles per airplane crash fatality, rarely higher. Recently, however, it was raised up to 2 million rubles. It is obvious that, more often than not, the best way of doing things is described in the simple truth that it is much easier, and cheaper, to prevent something bad from happening than to take corrective action afterward. In each particular case the degree of public safety depends on such factors as the country's social and economic development and its wealth, cultural development, climate and environmental conditions, historical traditions, etc. In Russia, the Ministry for Emergency Situations is in charge of public security, while in the United States the corresponding government structure is the Federal Emergency Management Agency or FEMA. Risk Science, in other words, Culture of Security, includes the Theory of Risks and Catastrophes plus a number of applied disciplines in various fields related to social life and activity. Risk Science is primarily targeted at perfecting security enhancement methods and introducing them into practice. Risk Science deals with statistics and development of security enhancement methods for the most vulnerable areas; development of alternative, less hazardous, processes; organization of training and information; prediction of accidents and catastrophes; improving the efficiency of emergency response and rescue teams; ways to reduce the number of victims and material losses during accidents; improvement of epidemic prevention and response services and institutions; and video monitoring and other real-time control mechanisms. There are special agencies in charge of studying the probability of social disturbances and ways of prevention them. In the situation of an increased terrorist threat, the United States and other countries are facing a dilemma: either they take the high risk of suffering major losses or they take preventive military actions, up to occupying entire countries. Regarding the recent trend toward heightened security controls within countries, analysis say that societies now have to choose between security and individual freedom19. A serious problem related to social security is the prevention of leaks of confidential information, including industrial, government, military and other secrets. Leaks of information regarding armaments, cutting edge technologies, strategic plans, corporate secrets and individual private information are fraught with highly undesirable consequences. (It should be no surprise that the names of the state structures responsible for public security are so imposing: the State Security Committee, Federal Security Service, etc.). Poor safekeeping of information may cause a strong army to suffer defeat, a good company to go bankrupt, a government to fall or other catastrophic consequences. (See Chapter 12 for more details on information war). The problem of terrorism is deserving of special attention. Increasingly sophisticated methods and systems of terrorist training, especially the massive training of suicide bombers, pose a serious threat. In the course of its development, civilization has not learned to protect itself from destructive weapons, much less against ideologies allowing their massive use against civilians. The right to personal security is one of the fundamental human rights, and it is to a large extent ensured by the state. The main components of personal security are protection from hazards related to foreign military invasion, food security, environmental security and medical security. Here it is appropriate to note that the security of a country, and hence, its citizens, in the modern world is based on the following four pillars: a strong economy, social order (internal policy), defense capacity and foreign policy. In the 20th century, Russia set a graphic example of this: a faulty policy after October 1917, lack of preparedness for the war with Germany, and finally, the arms race during the Cold War that led the country to weaken and collapse. Despite its colossal military might, the country turned out to be unable to preserve its structure, and suffered both territorial and population losses. A drop in average life expectancy combined with a decline in the birth rate have led to a situation in which Russia is losing 0.7 million people every year. It is difficult to make precise assessments, but it will be no exaggeration to say that the mistaken policy in the past century cost Russia tens of millions of human lives or more, if unborn children are included in the count20. Recently, the Russian government adopted the program "Natural and Technological Disaster Reduction and Mitigation." This program is intended to take place over several years. Public education in the field of safety is gaining momentum and is sponsored and encouraged by the state. For example, a special course called Safety Guide for Everyday Life has been introduced into secondary schools as a mandatory discipline. "The cost of predicting and getting prepared for a natural disaster is up to 15 times as low as that of the losses that might be inflicted by such disaster," President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Yuri Osipov says. On the one hand, "as we come to use more sophisticated equipment, the higher the probability is of its failure and the more precautions that need to be taken," according to the Theory of
19 In July 2006, Russia adopted a set of legal amendments to the Federal Law on Combating Terrorism that introduced a broad range of antiterrorism acts inside the country and cooperation with other countries. 20 Doctor of Economics Anatoly Vishnevesky argues that "Russia lost a total of over 70 million people in the 20th century, all catastrophes included," Izvestia, December 2, 2005.

Chapter 16

219

The degree of risk and safety margins tend to change with the development of new technologies and changes in the general political situation in the world. As it turned out, the World Trade Center, destroyed in the 9-11 terrorist attack, was designed to withstand a collision with an airplane, but not a crash of a huge airliner loaded heavily with fuel. As a result, the destruction was not limited to the buildings' top floors, but rather both towers collapsed. It is obvious now that skyscrapers should be afforded with a higher class of protection; however, the question is what magnitude of impact they should be designed to withstand. It is impossible, for example, to construct a building that would resist a nuclear explosion. Major storage dams, which are often located in close proximity to big cities, are also unable to withstand nuclear explosions. When they were built, nobody thought about the risk of an artificial tsunami, and hence no provisions were made for such. Therefore, in the event of a nuclear blast, the dams will collapse and the neighboring cities destroyed. It is becoming obvious now that megalopolises, which are rapidly growing all over the world, are extremely vulnerable to any kind of weapons of mass destruction. This notwithstanding, construction standards for skyscrapers have not been revised. Here it is appropriate to ask if we should adopt different construction standards, or impose heightened security measures and take extra precautions, or perhaps take radical action to reverse the destructive trends which are gaining momentum. It seems that people should not build homes and settle at places where floods, catastrophic earthquakes, mudflows, landslides or avalanches take place at regular intervals. However, in practice it turns out that if no natural disasters occur at a site for several decades (sometimes even several years are enough), people will resettle the area, ignoring the risk. Here it is appropriate to recall a number of major tragedies related to natural disasters in the 20th century: 1.3 million people died in the Yangtze flood in China in 1931, 650,000 people were killed by the Tien-Shan earthquake of 1976, and the Bangladesh flood of 1970 claimed 500,000 human lives and 28 million people were left homeless. There have been a number of other catastrophe claiming many hundreds of thousands of human lives. One of the largest known volcanic eruptions was that of Krakatoa (Indonesia) in 1883. The eruption pushed gases, steam, ash and rock fragments up to a height of 50-70 meters and scattered them around an area of about 1 million square kilometers. The eruption-induced oceanic wave made a whole circle around the world and the air wave circled the Earth three times. Tsunami waves reached a height of 30 meters. Cities, villages and forests in the neighborhood of the island of Java were wiped off the face of the Earth. The roar of the eruption was audible in the city of Manila (2,000 kilometers from Krakatoa) and in central Australia (at a distance of 3,600 kilometers from the event's epicenter). Even with the means and knowledge available today, much less with those available back in 1883, it does not appear possible either to predict or effectively resist such a natural disaster23. The December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake triggered a series of devastating tsunamis with a death toll of over 250,000 people in ten countries, and the material damages inflicted by the earthquake were estimated at about $15 billion24. Recent excavations in Crete gave rise to the hypothesis that one of the most developed and flourishing ancient civilizations, the Minoan civilization, was destroyed 3,500 years ago by a gigantic tsunami, this event being linked with the legend
Sailing vessels are equipped with the newest systems of communication, navigation and information on accidents and assaults. Ports are equipped with closed-circuit television, cargo and vessel monitoring and other security systems. 22 As usual, the conference was accompanied by demonstrations by various peace-promoting organizations. Their slogans, among others, included: "We want genuine security and millions of new jobs, not billions spent on armaments!" 23 Geological excavations can also provide information about catastrophes that occurred in prehistoric times. It is quite possible that many ancient myths, such as those of the Flood, or Atlantis, have their roots in ancient cataclysms. 24 "More than 7,000 natural disasters with the death toll of at least 2.5 million have been recorded over the last 48 years. The damage inflicted by these catastrophes is in excess of $2 trillion," quoted from the World Economic and Social Survey 2008: Overcoming Economic Insecurity.
21

Catastrophes developed by Academician Valery Legasov. On the other hand, with civilization's progress and increase in labor productivity, people become wealthier and able to spend more on comfort, reliability and risk reduction. The most important achievement is a considerable increase in life expectancy in the developed and prospering countries. Among the recently adopted international treaties and conventions important for ensuring public security, I would like to name the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code21, the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants and the Kyoto Protocol. In certain regions there are special services at work for early warning of tsunamis; after the recent catastrophic ones in Southeast Asian, the global natural-disaster earlywarning system has undergone modernization. Rescue efforts are assisted by satellites belonging to the global communications system. International conventions in effect provide for rendering assistance to those in distress, and there are various security treaties and treaties on cooperation in combating terrorism. The International Human Security Network (http://www.humansecuritynetwork.org/) has been created, embracing Canada, Norway, Switzerland and a number of other countries, and discussions are under way over the proposal to establish a unified international security code that would cover a wide range of issues from day-to-day housekeeping to nature conservation. International Security Policy conferences are held annually in Munich. The 45th conference took place in February 2009, and was attended by representatives from 50 countries. As usual, the conference discussed current issues of international security, specifically possibilities for cooperation between the United States and Russia in the creation of missile defense systems in Europe, peaceful deterrence of Iran and elimination of Talibs in Afghanistan. "It is our common interest to get Russia involved in the future architecture of security," Angela Merkel noted in her speech at the conference. Apart from that, the conference discussed issues of energy security, NATO status and other matters22.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

220

of Atlantis). There have been even greater natural catastrophes. There are indications that about 2 million years ago a tsunami wave as high as about 100 meters emerged in the Hawaiian archipelago and pounded heavily on the American coastline. It is believed that one of the biggest hazards comes from the reawakening of the Canary Islands' Teide volcano, which might trigger a tsunami that would be dangerous for several continents25. Other risky areas include the densely populated state of California with its major fault, most of the territory of Japan and the Chilean and Peruvian coastlines. In addition, tornadoes occur over a large part of the United States, and its densely populated southern areas are below the sea level are hence are susceptible to floods. Seismic and hurricane hazards are taken into account in the construction of bridges, buildings and other critical facilities. Statistics for such natural phenomena cannot be compiled for a period of more than several hundred years, at best 1,000 years using ancient records. Even without such statistics, it can be concluded that stronger natural cataclysms probably have taken place in the past and, theoretically, can occur at any given moment. For example, a huge bridge connecting the Peloponnesus Peninsula with continental Greece was commissioned in 2004. The bridge is designed to withstand earthquakes with magnitudes up to 7 on the Richter Scale, a windstorm up to 250 km/h and collision with a tanker with displacement tonnage up to 180,000 tons. The chances are high that these safety margins will be enough for the bridge to last to the end of its service life. Of course, if a more powerful natural or man-triggered disaster besets the bridge, it will collapse. Here it is appropriate to recall the mid-20th-century catastrophe in which one of the gigantic suspended bridges in the state of Washington collapsed due to the combined effects of strong wind and resonance. According to available statistics and research, nearly one-third of the territory of the Russian Federation falls within an earthquake risk zone in which events with magnitudes from 8-10 on the Richter Scale occur with an average frequency of once every 5,000 years. Although five thousand years is a lot of time, there is always a non-zero probability of a seismic event of that size occurring, say, tomorrow. There is a federal targeted program called "Seismic Security of Russia," but its efficiency remains poor due to insufficient funding, and its management leaves much to be desired as well.

As one can easily derive from what was said above, the degree of security depends not only on designers and engineers and not only on our knowledge about natural phenomena, but also on the mindset of the broad masses of people. Sometimes public security suffers from people's excessive proneness to risk. According to the concept of "acceptable risk," security measures are not taken if risk lies within an adopted tolerable limit. Usually, the level of "acceptable" risk for people's safety and health is set higher in poor and/or poorly governed countries. Commitment to risk reduction, healthy lifestyle, the ability to determine a sensible degree of tolerable risk or even deciding in favor of a ban on all hazardous technologies, activities and habits and to declare hazardous areas prohibited from being settled, etc., must become our key guidelines. Exactly as we did when dealing with the problem of global standoff and global conflicts, here we should again change eradicate our old habits and patterns of behavior and develop and adopt new mindsets and new traditions. Public security levels are very different in different countries, which means that those that are behind can look and learn from the leaders. The most general indicator characterizing public security level is average life expectancy. As was noted above, for Russia the figures for this are 58 years for men and 72.5 years for women. For comparison, the corresponding figures for Japan and the European Union are 77 years and 73-75 years for men and 84 and 80-80 years for women, respectively. Moreover, for example, in Japan predictions are made for life expectancy in the country to increase further and reach 120 in the near future. Returning to the main theme of this book, I would like to remind you that the most fundamental problem of security and safety in our time is the issue of the preservation of mankind as a whole, preservation of the environment and prevention of war, other crises and mass destruction. An ad hoc term, Global Security, has come into being recently for use in reviews and discussions devoted to the problem. The following are several excerpts from the Globalistics encyclopedia (2003): "For the policy of global security, it is important to figure out the primary sources of those problems and contradictions that are putting the very existence of our civilization in jeopardy Over the decades that have passed since the time when the very first global projections were made, it has become clear that natural, spontaneous economic mechanisms are unable to reduce the global hazards facing mankind. It is obvious now that without political regulation, without adaptation to the new realities, a tragic outcome is becoming increasingly likely. "Global political culture should determine and enforce norms and governing principles of political behavior that would meet the requirements of preserving life during our present perilous era and determine certain limits that cannot be surpassed because surpassing them would be endanger the very existence of our civilization or narrow its survival chances A normative model includes a ban on the use of force and a democratic concept of world development." A number of works devoted to the issue of global risk assessment have appeared recently. The following is derived from quotes from articles listed in the References section of the book26:
But even the most powerful eruptions on Earth look like minor fireworks compared to those occurring on other planets of the Solar System, not to mention faraway star systems and galaxies. For example, the magnitude of the year 2001 eruption on Jupiter's satellite Io, which is several times smaller than the Earth, exceeded the magnitude of the Earth's most powerful eruption by a factor of 10,000. 26 By Nick Bostrom, Eliezer Yudkowsky and Alexei Turchin. See also Global Catastrophes in Wikipedia.
25

Chapter 16

221

It is a mistake to think that global risks are something farfetched that have nothing to do with the foreseeable future. In reality, for a young man or woman living today, the risk of dying in a global catastrophe is comparable with the other risks of life loss of individual or group character. People are commonly mistaken when it comes to the assessment of certain rare kinds of risks. Thus, people tend to have little or no concern about global risks because they are accustomed to their inevitable death in the next several decades and, therefore, have developed mechanisms of psychological protection from such thoughts. Each person has a "horizon of events," while everything that lies beyond it represents a purely contemplative or speculative interest. Most people believe that global risks are something of a distant future many decades from today. Fear is activated in response to a specific stimulus in a specific situation. The security of a given country increases as it accumulates nuclear and bacteriological weapons; on the other hand, an arms race negatively affects the security of the world as a whole. As things stand today, each given country is spending more on its national security than it is spending on global security. In the meantime, the danger posed by global risks is tending to increase. Until the mid 20th century there had been no theoretically supported concept of a global catastrophe. Nowadays, there are several variants which render themselves to mathematical modeling. The number of such scenarios is growing as mankind masters increasingly powerful sources of energy, discovers new physical laws are acquires opportunities to create various types of destructive weapons. A considerable part of the global risks which appeared in the 20th century are associated with the fundamentally innovative and unexpected discoveries. A global catastrophe might develop as a combination of processes. Several processes, each being understandable and not overly dangerous, may form into a destructive "superprocess." This phenomenon can be called "self-organizing destruction." A good prediction is not a forecast of specific events or developments, but a space of probable scenarios. Each world religion (or ideology) claims to be working for mankind's survival, maintaining that all other religions and ideas are only obstructing its work. Opposition between the world's would-be saviors may also be a threat to life on the planet. Another potential hazard is rooted in competition between different groups of people advocating various approaches to resolving the problem of global risk. There are several subjects commonly raised in discussions about the future that, strangely enough, do not overlap, almost as if the speakers were living in different worlds. The following are the most common subjects of such discussions: Singularity, supercomputers, biotechnology and nanorobots; Systemic crises in the economy; geopolitics, wars; Demography, ecology, global warming, resource depletion, etc.; Cosmic catastrophes, such as collision with asteroids, supernovae, or explosions on the Sun; catastrophic volcano eruptions, geomagnetic reversal, or religious scenarios. (This conclusion does not apply to this book, which is an attempt to address a wide variety of hazards facing mankind and propose ways to mitigate or eliminate these hazards Evgeny Abramyan.) Systems (including civilization) are better adaptive to slow changes, while rapid changes often cause them to collapse. Catastrophes are more dangerous than gradual decay. There is no clear understanding about who the discussions on global risks are addressed to or targeted at ordinary citizens who have no opportunity to change anything, the civil responsibility of scientists, the governments of the world's leading powers and the UN, or foundations and commissions specially set up to hold off global risks? The latter have little leverage to influence the situation. We do not have a professionally made "dossier" of all these risks. References to the opinions of great people should not be taken as sufficient grounds for concluding that something is safe or harmless. Only studies, research, discussions among specialists and analysis can be accepted as adequate support of such conclusions. It is quite possible that people obsessed with the desire of destroying the world might emerge on the scenes. Therefore, we should seriously consider all scenarios, including those which involve people working long and hard to accomplish such a goal. As far as global risks are concerned, experiments cannot be used as the criterion of truth, because experiments are precisely what we wish to avoid. As long as we cannot resort to experimentation, it is impossible to identify what mistakes are compromising our global risk assessments. There cannot be any statistics for global risks. The methods we use to manage economic and other risks are inapplicable to global ones; for global risks, even the tiniest probability of occurrence is inadmissible.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

222

Chapter 17

Variants of the Future: Inevitable Chaos or Sustainable Development? The worst possible variant of the human civilization's future is an aggravation of the current practice of resolving conflicts by force and using increasingly destructive weapons. This practice is most likely to end up in a massive annihilation. Leaving wars aside, the prospect of human existence is made problematic by environmental pollution and resource depletion. The alternative is to implement radical changes and adopt a new system of life peaceful cooperation between all nations and communities, involving democracy in its best form, reasonable levels of consumption, and, as a consequence, sustainable development. This is the most desirable scenario for humanity's favorable existence, though many think it utopian. A third variant is a largescale military conflict with part of the population surviving. After such calamity, various scenarios are possible: from gangs living in the wilderness and struggling for survival to gradual peaceful evolution of a small number of survivors and the restoration of the gene pool.
ith the development of human civilization, world's population is increasing and more new machines and technologies are being put to use. Human activities inevitably produce an impact on the environment both on the planet's surface, in the atmosphere, and beyond. These and a number of other anthropogenic effects have led to a situation where mankind, in order to survive and to be able to develop further, should unite into a historically new form of community: a lot of things need to be changed and made adequate to the realities of life. "The world that emerges rapidly as a result of collision of new values and technology, new geopolitical relations, new ways of communication and life styles requires absolutely new ideas and notions," as American futurologist Alvin Toffler said. "The modern world, interconnected and interdependent as it is, is now facing the contradiction between the objective necessity and subjective unreadiness of various countries, peoples and regions to cooperate with each other due to existing civilizational, ethnic and ideological barriers," quoted from the Gorbachev-Fund materials. The existing tendencies and customary styles of behavior will most probably to lead us to a global catastrophe; it is obvious that just one or two global military conflicts may be enough for civilization to be destroyed. The main tasks of the contemporary world are to overcome the arising challenges, find the most favorable variant for development and plan the future and start bringing it about in an effective way. These issues were discussed in the previous chapters of this book, and the following, final chapter, is an attempt to review and analyze possible ways of resolving the problems facing mankind. Chapter 18 contains a set of recommendations and five long-term global programs (projects). Lots of books and articles on futurology and globalistics have been published over the last 50 years. "Foreknowledge of the future is absolutely necessary for motivation and control of action. Moreover, foreknowledge that is shared and supported by many other people and made an aim to strive for can make many systems a reality" (Donella Meadows et al.). The majority of analysts agree that we are approaching another period of radical reforms in the world. It is believed that during a crisis (a bifurcation) it is difficult to predict how complex systems will develop further, this possibly also depending upon unanticipated factors. Even if a way to survive has been found, it will not be easy to do so, as many things (and people) will resist efforts to implement radical reforms. However, the human species is distinguished by the fact that it has intelligence, which must be used to deal with emerging challenges. We can hear statements being made increasingly often that "a short-term harmonious development strategy for humanity should be developed" on the basis of various possible scenarios. Let us assume that we can identify a range of conditions and activities the implementation of which may allow for and facilitate further sustainable development of civilization and that we shall be able to form a defense and block development of threatening scenarios. This task is quite difficult to carry out it requires an aggregation of effort and funds, but there is no other way to survive in this complicated world. Opposed approaches believing in an inevitable apocalypse and submissively waiting for it, or hoping that everything is guaranteed to be fine I consider unacceptable. Upon implementation of the chosen favorable scenario for the near future 30-50 years (or for the whole of the 21st century)1 it is quite possible that mankind will be able to plan for a next path forward. As a result of insufficient understanding of the present-day tendencies, lack of determination and solidarity in the world community, and unwillingness to think about these seemingly remote issues, the start date of taking radical action is being
1 This

time frame is proposed by a number of futurologists quoted in this book. I have the same opinion on the issue.

Chapter 17

223

indefinitely postponed. Before I move on to Chapter 18, the final chapter herein, which describes specific possibilities, let us review some possible scenarios for future development. New Humanism In 1977, Aurelio Peccei, the founder of the Club of Rome (Chapter 1), wrote a fundamental book Human Properties which addressed the crisis of civilization and the role of human mentality. The following is an excerpt from the book: "A new split is emerging in the world between the superdeveloped and undeveloped countries The scientific and technological revolution2 is becoming increasingly pressing and difficult to manage. Having endued us with power that has never before existed, the scientific and technological revolution has not given us the wisdom to keep our capabilities and desires under control. Thus, our generation has to finally understand that this only open us on which everything depends, whether we shall be able to overcome this critical gap, since, for the first time in history, it will affect not just certain countries and regions but the entire human species. Our choice is what determines the way humanity will take to develop further and whether or not it will be able to avoid selfdestruction and create conditions to have its demands and ambitions satisfied. "Taking into account that the problem of this critical stage in development is inside, and not outside, human beings, the way to resolve it should also be found, first and foremost, inside human beings. This problem is the result of human characteristics, and ways to improve them must be sought. It is necessary to think, first of all, about changing human beings themselves, about a revolution inside them. These tasks can be accomplished, provided that we realize what is at stake. "The new humanism should be of a revolutionary nature. It should replace the current unshakable principles and norms, aiding development of new values and incentives mental, philosophical, ethical, social, aesthetic and cultural that can meet the requirements of our time. The new humanism can facilitate transformation of human beings, improving their characteristics and capabilities up a level that corresponds to a new type of collective responsibility. It should change the worldviews and behaviors of not just certain groups and layers of society for this will not be sufficient for homo sapiens to survive and become once again master of its destiny it should become an integral and organic matrix for the ideology of the mass population of our world. We should aim at radical improvement of the characteristics and capabilities of human society if we want to achieve mental stability and a harmonic and happy coexistence with nature. Only provided that this condition is fulfilled may the human century not turn into a century of catastrophe and continue on as a long and stable epoch of a truly mature human society. "New humanism: this is a feeling of being a part of the global world; the appreciation of fair play and intolerance with respect to violence. People of different educational backgrounds are doomed to failing to comprehend the essence of global problems until they are able to see reality as it is, and we should make things such that as many people as possible are capable of making such an abrupt improvement in their understanding of the reality." At the time when those lines were published, the Cuban Missile Crisis a point where mankind stood at the edge of a new, nuclear, war was still fresh in the memory. The number of warheads on each of the opposed parties was sufficient to destroy civilization several times over. Later, the Cold War ended and some disarmament began, the challenges and threats regarding our future becoming weaker; at one point in time, it seemed that there was no real danger standing before us. However, after a short while, new confrontation between ideologies started, as well as military strikes now done in the form of a terrorist war. The contours and contradictions of a new multipolar world are beginning to take shape. Economic crises are just a manifestation of the dangers associated with the existing instable equilibrium. Meanwhile, weapons of mass destruction continue to spread about the world and the potential for even more dangerous and affordable means of destruction has been developed. Thus, the observations made by Aurelio Peccei back in 1977 have become even more important today: there have been almost no attempts made to reverse the old trends or, to be more precise, those that were made were inadequate. An Ideal Scenario for the Future; Alternative Civilization A new term sustainable development was first introduced at the conference called by the UN in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, this meaning a stable and controllable development to preserve human civilization and the environment and avoid calamities. One can try to imagine how an ideal society one not vulnerable to self-destruction might look.
2

I.e. the present-day rapid progress in science and technology.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

224

First of all, we may succeed in changing ways of thinking and develop a tolerant attitude with rejection of using force and with a universally high standard of living. "The future of mankind, if it survives, will have very little in common with the present-day life... It will depend on the spread of learning and knowledge and the educational level and culture of all. It will depend on people's ability to identify and strictly observe necessary prohibitions and on the ability to develop and maintain a universal global ideology. New forms of life will make themselves felt in all its areas economics, means of production, culture, ethnic relations and features of civil society provided that people have a clear understanding that old standards have no prospects and that a common, united will is required to reverse the situation. No country alone is able to facilitate its own sustainability," Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Nikita Moiseev wrote in 1998. Liberalism, democracy and peaceful relations between all nations and communities will prevail in this future society. Maintaining (by force, or by persuasion and other democratic means) a scientifically grounded population size and consumption rate that depend on the capacity of the environment, parameters that will change based on the level of technology and development of resources in space. One of the basic motifs will be that nature should be used in such a way that it can be recovered and preserved for the future generations. Military forces, which will be designed and used only to fight criminals and maintain public order, will be under heavy control. Monitoring, strict control and openness in scientific research and termination of research aimed at developing of ways of harming people will take place (further research and development of destructive weapons probably will go on, but only with the purpose of preventing dangers to the planet arising from space. Maintaining such an approach will require a fast response and scientifically based approach to any emerging or potential violations and will require openness and collective reasoning.). A similar understanding of an alternative civilization is characteristic of Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, one of the most active futurologists in our country: energy production based on renewable resources, maintaining an ecological and demographic balance, complete disarmament, and "a true humanity that has gone beyond the current anti-culture." It should be noted that ideal communities have long been dreamed of. Back in the early 16th century Thomas More wrote a book where he described the ideal society on the Utopia island. Tommaso Campanella (Italian philosopher and writer, 15681639), in his utopian novel Sun City, wrote that we need to stop "fratricidal" wars between nations, the mechanism for global unity of mind being "Christianity purified of wrongdoing," and that, due to free travel and communications, "sciences and knowledge will increase and universal brotherhood will be established." He also wrote about a need for integrated global management. Another version of a "bright future where everybody is happy" was presented in A Modern Utopia by H.G. Wells (1905). "Bright future is promised by Christianity, Buddhism and Islam, and the Jews, being scattered around the world, are dreaming of such too, calling it their Promised Land. Many centuries have come and gone, social orders and systems of government have changed one another many times, lots of inventions and discoveries have been made and people have harnessed fire and water, air and soil, but the dream about a better future remains exactly the same as it had been thousands of years ago: people still dream of equality and fraternity." The great Russian scientist Konstantin Tsiolkovsky (18571935) said about the bright future that "in perspective, the human species will merge into a single entity and be managed by one unique elected deliberating body This deliberating body will cope with and eliminate all human disasters. Physical development will be focused on increasing length of life, perfecting the beauty of the human body, and further improving the organs of sense and motion" (The Living Universe, 1923). However, even in the very best scenario of a future society, it is impossible to imagine it without contradictions and conflicts. Within any community of active people, their points of view, interests and ambitions and the outcomes of their actions will diverge due to different inborn peculiarities temper, industry, or mental and physical differences to say the least. In addition we must factor into this different environments that may lead to differing levels of success. For these and other reasons people will have different social statuses, with people attempting to improve theirs and, so, competing with others. ("Freedom and equality are two contradictory notions. Freedom, because of being different from others, causes inequality, irrespective of what the social institutions may be. Inequality, whether national, legal or especially material, is associated with tension and instability These contradictions are eternal. They are natural, and without them no development is possible. There will be different ways to reach compromises because all people differ from each other, and so do their values," as Nikita Moiseev wrote.) It has already been noted above that "equal opportunities" do not imply "equal outcomes." Many problems and causes of conflicts are rooted in the differences of characters, attitudes and mindsets of people which manifest themselves as different tastes, different attitudes toward religion, unrequited love, jealousy, misunderstanding, quarrels with friends and relatives, etc. Envy of those who are luckier may also be present sometimes. Development of novelties and original ideas in many cases requires individual creativity, and innovative notions and inventions are often not understood and rejected by the majority, which is another source of tension and contradiction. Incompatibility of the characters of certain individuals also should not be disregarded. Thus, it seems there is only one acceptable way to behave to spare no effort to ensure that, in a future, best society, conflicts and ways of settling them will be civilized and safe for the parties involved. Apart from developing attitudes and improving

Chapter 17

225

It is a peculiarity of our time is that we can no longer settle for just making declarations of ideas we need to act. The human species has little chance to survive without reforming itself in a radical way. Each person and every community are capable of working miracles and accomplishing great things in extraordinary circumstances, for example when one's life or the lives of our near ones are in danger. In our case it looks like we shall have to "work miracles" under the threat of the death of our entire race. We are running a high risk by maintaining the current trends, which is becoming increasingly apparent to the majority of citizens of the world, and so one of the missions of this book is to call out for active efforts once again.
In his book Philosophy of Freedom Nikolai Berdyaev addresses some aspects of religious and socialistic vision of the future: "Teaching about progress, about the meaning of history inevitably provides for a favorable end of history. Survival is a victory over the actual origin of the world's viciousness, wresting out the roots of evil; survival is a comprehensive reform of the entire way of existence, a giving birth to new life. The process of humanizing the human species, transforming it from a natural animal condition, releasing human strengths, and turning the human personality from an inverted one to a basic normal position should be completed. The meaning of world history lies in releasing the human strengths that shall make the final choice between the two worlds the good and the evil. The full and complete misery of evil will be clearly seen only at the end of history when evil reaches its fullest form. There will not be such murder, execution and racketeering, nor such ignorance, such need and helplessness in the face of nature."

consciousness, this implies that means of destruction and dangerous weapons, especially weapons of mass destruction, should either not exist or be under strict control. Complicated and, so far, unclear is the process of moving from the contemporary way of doing things to the scenario described here. Of course, such a society is reminiscent of many varieties of utopian socialism or communism that were offered long ago and the implementation of which either never started or resulted in monstrous systems that were later very hard to get rid of.

Pessimistic Scenarios of the Future The investigation of this problem will not be complete if we do not consider some unfavorable possibilities of further historical development. One of these is a global war using the accumulated means of mass destruction. This might take place in the event of one of the military conflicts that take place periodically and have a tendency to escalate. If a conflict acquires a military character, then usually the situation escalates to use of everything available in the arsenal. The development of conflict and war has its own logic, and previous experience proves that in most cases they cannot be stopped until they reach their logical (!?) end, with the leaders of the losing side being ready to commit mass murder and kill themselves rather than face death at the hands of others. As I have already mentioned, thousands of nuclear bombs, tens of thousands of poisonous substances and an unquantifiable biological-weapons potential have the ability to ruin our habitat for a long time and wipe out the most life on Earth. No defense from a massive attack using these weapons exists. The issue of delivering them is not of that great importance: a global "nuclear winter" can take place regardless of the location of the explosion if a large quantity of bombs are used. In case of a nuclear war and concurrent detonation of 5,000-7,000 bombs or more, it is possible "to save" on delivery if it is understood that the result will be global suicide (nuclear winter and our planet turning into a desert). This leads to the simple conclusion that manufacture and accumulation of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons runs counter to common sense3, although I would like to note that such a fatal scenario remains possible today. Research that is underway in the laboratories of a number of countries may result in production of new even more powerful weapons as early as the first half of this century (see Chapter 13). "People have now reached the edge of the abyssJust one unwary step and humanity may vanish from the surface of the Earth. Only collective reasoning can prevent the emerging catastrophe If people are not able to get rid of primitive savagery and aggressiveness, then the fatal end may happen in the near future," as Nikita Moiseev says or, to cite a pessimistic observation by Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, "global catastrophe is inevitable in view of the passiveness of the international public and the leading states' governments' failure to act." (Let us hope that these words were uttered mainly to overcome the misunderstanding of the situation by the ruling elite!) If one wishes to see examples of the cruelty and willingness to commit mass murders, then it is enough to recall the killings of millions of civilians in the recent past in Turkey, in the Soviet Union, in Germany, in Cambodia and in Africa. There were hundreds of thousands of civilians in Dresden and other German cities killed during bombings during World War II, and hundreds of thousands of Japanese killed by nuclear bombs. Cruel murders in Srebrenica and Beslan and numerous victims of terrorist attacks are a few more examples of that. Many tens of millions of people were killed in the course of the World Wars of the last century. Moreover, in
3 This is also true regarding other types of existing or newly developed weapons. Academician Vladimir Skulachev said about bacteriological weapons that "experts have calculated that one gram of tetanotoxin sprayed from an airplane is sufficient to kill life throughout all of Europe. This is a purely technical problem: How to disseminate this one gram evenly" (Izvestia, November 2001).

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

226

addition to the inherent cruelty of the normal individual (or group of individuals), the course of events can be affected by people with abnormal psychologies or affective states A number of countries have for many years been preparing well-equipped shelters, and there is a chance that a limited number of people would be able to survive4. Even if such occurs, the questions remain as to how long the resources necessary to stay alive will suffice and whether it will be possible to reestablish civilization. Will the will and resources be sufficient to manage matters under extremely complicated conditions5? (Speaking of the planet's future after such cataclysms, it should be noted that, as an example, organisms with a short reproductive cycle and high adaptability, such as insects, bacteria, and viruses, will have a better chance to survive and adjust to the new conditions in case of widespread and significant pollution of the environment.). A model of life for millions of people within an environment lacking laws and legal infrastructure has existed before in the history of our civilization many regions in Europe after the fall of the Roman Empire: armed gangs ruled over vast territories and it took hundreds of years to have states restored and law put back into action. However, it should be noted that only a small part of the planet was involved and there were no toxic agents or radiation. Sometimes we hear people say that the elite, being limited in terms of the number of its members and after having provided itself with stores of everything necessary to survive, is capable of carrying out a deliberate "sanitatization" of the planet. Extremists from powerful countries, members of terrorist organizations and fanatics belonging to certain movements might also desire this. The press contains observations such as "a mere couple of billion dollars and about 10 years will put you in opposition to the rest of the world." The issue is whether or not humanity will be able to identify and neutralize monsters that have decided to work on such a criminal act.
Sergei Kara-Murza describes something similar in an open and precise way: "we can admit that as of the current moment, psychologically and ideologically, the Western community is ready for any, even the most destructive, acts against the 'outraged hungry hordes' that may make up their mind to challenge the well-being of 'the golden billion in some way.' Humanity has already split into two subclasses that are now in the conditions of a deadly hot-cold war. 'The golden billion' will be represented by a special international race with absolutely different morals and different rights than the 'defeated,' and reproduction of 'the defeated' will be controlled based on 'common human interests' (that is, will be rapidly decreasing). The behavior of the 'defeated' still left alive will be controlled using the most violent means belonging to the other side of 'the good and the evil.'" (The Concept of The Golden Billion (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_billion) and the New World Order (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_world_order)). The Russian philosopher Daniil Andreev (19061959) said that "some communities traumatized by the horrors of the World Wars are now trying to unite, so that, in the future, this political unity may embrace the entire globe. However, who can guarantee that such a superstate, using the support of morally undeveloped classes of people and there are still many more in the world than one would like will not again turn into a dictatorship or tyranny, next to which all the previous ones would pale?" Sometimes a future community is described consisting of a ruling elite and professionals-experts who ensure the production of things important for life, such as robots. We have already had, in the real world, the experience of totalitarian regimes trying to create "robot anthills" out of their countries." According to polls, (Washington ProFile, January 16, 2009), the majority of the U.S. residents (51%) say probability is high that a large-scale nuclear war will occur in the next several decades.

Accidental use of weapons of mass destruction may also take place: taking into account the ongoing work in the areas of weapons research and production, we should always remember the well-known thesis that "an unloaded gun does fire sometimes." Arsenals in train cars loaded with ordinary projectiles have exploded many times, planes have accidentally released hydrogen bombs, submarines with nuclear weapons on board have been lost, and security personnel at strategic missile units have lost their self-control and killed each other. And there have been false alarms of nuclear missile launch from the opposite side. Many people have also been killed by emissions from chemical and biological laboratories. It is dangerous if, in case of another large conflict, the predominant opinion implies that a cataclysm is inevitable. In such a case, it will be probable that someone will decide to be first to put weapons of mass destruction to use in order to gain some (apparent) advantage over others. "The real problem of violence is that it cannot be predicted. It goes beyond control and breaks all laws easily. But I hope that there will be no wars in the future," as the 14th Dalai Lama puts it. It is not easy to survive inside a deadly arsenal, which our planet is. With another round of tension, such as another Cold War, "the fear-based balance" may turn out to be less stable. It is clear that it is better to look for peaceful ways of settling issues rather than gambling. "We may be able to continue living as we do now for several more decades from 20-30 to 40-50 years" (Igor Bestuzhev-Lada). There is another science-fiction option that humanity will develop and use a new type of weapon microorganisms able to destroy and put out of operation any material, be they metal, plastic or of another constructive material (see Chapter 12). They would destroy both military and non-military machinery, plants, roads, railroads
4 Multiply branched underground tunnels and cities designed for many thousands of people exist in many countries, including the United States, Great Britain, Russia, and China. 5 Not to mention that survivors on the surface will try to expel those hiding in the shelters.

Chapter 17

227

and other attributes of civilization, resulting in humanity regressing to a condition close to a primitive age. Life expectancy will again be short (due to a lack of medical aids and tools), and even if humanity still has wars, they will look like the picture in Chapter 1. Another possibility is a restricted use of weapons of mass destruction during a military conflict (probably not by the superstates but by countries with a small quantity of such weapons), resulting in local catastrophes and death (probably in quantities greater than in Hiroshima). Following this will be horror and indignation on the part of the world community, wide coverage of the event by the mass media, and the world community (eventually) implementing radical moves to prevent military conflicts in the future and engaging in other activities to facilitate sustainable development. In line with what was written in the beginning of this book, extraordinary violent events work like a vaccination that develops the immune defense so that they do not recur. They can result in more serious efforts on part of the world community to "design" its future. But are not the cost and the risk of running into a global catastrophe too high? The Future in Literature Some philosophers and sociologists have used fiction to describe their visions of the future. Together with writers of books and screenwriters, they have created many visions of life centuries or thousands of years in the future. Such works of literature are projections of the present into the future; in many cases they are of an admonitory nature and may be treated as a guide for action. As far as scientific achievements are concerned, the authors of scientific fiction do not have to imagine much; instead, what they do mostly is extrapolate from ideas already developed or being still processed in the minds of professionals. Scientific fiction originated from religious sources predictions of apocalypses, the Last Judgment, etc.6 (See references to Utopia by Thomas Moore and The City of the Sun by Tommaso Campanella in the beginning of this chapter.) The prime of the prediction and fantastic type literature development occurred in the end of the 19th and in the 20th century. One of the important books of the beginning of the last century was Anticipations of the Reaction of Mechanical and Scientific Progress upon Human Life and Thought (Herbert George Wells, 1901). The World Set Free (H.G. Wells, 1913) contains the first mentioning of atomic bomb and the use of the energy contained in the matter7. The range of these predictions corresponded significantly to what is shown in the picture on page XX of this book, varying from the extinction of life on Earth to developing outer space. According to some visions, the humanity is splitting into several branches, one of which toils and is sometimes even preyed upon by the other (for example, Herbert George Wells, The Time Machine). In other cases technocrats restore the civilization (now having been humanized) after a total cataclysm (Herbert George Wells, The Shape of Things to Come). There are stories and books describing a supertotalitarian society (Robert Sheckley, Academy; Ray Bradbury, The Pedestrian; and others), wars in space (Friedrich Durrenmatt, The Mission of the Vega; the Star Wars movies; etc.); the victory of technological civilization (by many authors), etc. A harmonious life was described by Ivan Efremov (Andromeda), Stanislaw Lem (Magellan Cloud), and the Strugatskiy brothers (Homecoming). A typical example of social scientific fiction is George Orwell's dystopia 1984 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four), which was not that far ahead of many realities of the totalitarian countries of our epoch. Andrey Tarkovsky's The Sacrifice shows the necessity of making sacrifices today for the sake of future generations. One of the most impressing variants of the future is discussed by Stanislaw Lem in his Summa Technologiae civilization develops and conquers space, manages stars and is close to filling the entire universe. His point of view agrees with Konstantin Tsiolkovsky's idea of settling people in space that is described below. Lots of movies have been produced picturing different variants of the future, including film versions of the novels mentioned above, thrilling space travel odysseys and bloodcurdling films-catastrophes. The recent TV documentary, Life After People (http://www.boingboing.net/2008/01/18/life-after-people-ne.html), shows the destruction and decay of everything produced by the human civilization in a hypothetic situation where all people on the planet suddenly die. It is shown that virtually no traces of our civilization will remain on the Earth in a million years after that. In fact, the human mind engages in much guesswork as to what is waiting for us in the future. In religious thought this problem is also one of the main ones, as mentioned above. Human beings have been asking about what will come after their allotted life spans ever since thinking began. What will happen to him, to his relatives, to everybody around him? Then notions of the end of the world or of a future Last Judgment appeared, and, at the same time, of the continuation of life but in a different world an underworld, in this case. New religions appeared sometimes sects as well as predictions sometimes giving exact dates of the end of the world. But the dates passed and humanity continued, rapidly
6 They say that science fiction has predicted many discoveries but "the number of technologies not yet predicted by science fiction is so much greater that I would not consider it to be the source of predictions and the locomotive of civilization" (Boris Strugatskiy). 7 "Atom, which was originally thought to be the smallest particle of matter, solid and impermeable, indivisible and lifeless, has turned out to be a reservoir of colossal energy... Inconceivable amounts of energy are locked everywhere around us. We cannot break the lock at the moment, but we will break it one day!" (H.G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1913).

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

228

increasing the size of the population, improving knowledge and developing means of destruction. The current challenges discussed in this book, which are based on real, reliable facts, may be considered alarmism ungrounded fear. It is up to each of us to understand the current and the future problems and whether to agree or not that there is a current danger for the future of the humanity. There are, at least, reasons to start thinking about probable variants of the future that are significantly dependent on the tendencies being developed today. Predictions for the Near Future. Versions of the U.S. intelligence services8 The U.S. National Intelligence Council under the CIA has recently published a report on global future development for the next 15 years (Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project)9. The 2020 report states that most probable is the continuation of globalization, with the role of nongovernmental organizations becoming more significant in public management10, as well as aggressive development of information and nanotechnology spheres and development of new materials and industry. The world's economic growth is predicted to be 80% and the revenue per capita increase 50%, but the gap between rich and poor will increase as well. A number of countries will acquire weapons of mass destruction. The probability cyber attacks with a physical impact on the computer-aided vital infrastructures of various countries will increase. The potential growth of China and India will become a significant factor in global politics and the economy, with both turning into leading world nations. The population of India by 2020 will reach 1.3 billion people, and that of China 1.4 billion. What is even more significant is that both countries are making large investments in basic research in advanced technologies and, in some areas, may outstrip the Western countries. It is quite possible that the United States will lose its leading position in many areas. As far as Europe is concerned, it is said that, "first, it must make a 'large economic breakthrough' and then expand. The typical characteristics of the West and East, North and South, countries that have joined the Union and those that have not, developed and undeveloped, may change significantly within the reported period." The report stresses that "it is impossible to forecast what the world will be like in the year of 2020 (this is obviously beyond our capacities); however the actual purpose is be more thoroughly prepared to meet various upcoming challenges (this conclusion is fully supported by the author of this book). We have held discussions with experts from around the world to identify realistic global perspectives. We have hosted conferences in five continents to become familiar with the points of view of the international experts regarding their regions development perspectives for the next 15 years." So it continues: "By 2020 we can foresee a wide spreading of a feeling of instability caused by not only physical challenges but many psychological factors as well. Although the world will become richer on the whole, globalization will change the common status of things so much that as consequence it will result in huge economic, cultural and, as a another consequence, political convulsions. Weak governments, floundering economies, religious extremism and abundance of young people will create a perfect fuel for internal conflicts in some of the regions. Conflicts where ethnic groups are involved with their actual living territories going beyond the national boundaries run the risk of turning into regional ones. These conflicts in their extreme form can cause complete failure of the government structure and, consequently, vast territories and population will be deprived of effective government control. Such territories may become a shelter for international terrorists (like Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan quite recently) or for criminals and drug rings (like Columbia)." The report states regarding religious conflicts that "we assume that religion will play an increasingly important role in the way of thinking of people. Within many communities, the boundaries between religious groups and inside them can become as important as the national borders. As an example, we can foresee Christian-Muslim disagreements in Central Asia, a dissension between the Shiite and the Sunni communities, and potential religious and ethnic conflict spots in Europe, Russia and China, which will become significant factors in the general world picture of 2020."

The report provides more details regarding Islamist terrorism: "The key factors contributing to international terrorism today will not make their impact weaker within the next 15 years. The rebirth of the Muslim religion, which is supported by the development of global means of communication, is creating a framework for a wide dissemination of radical Islamist ideology in the Middle East and abroad it, including southwest Asia, Central Asia and Western Europe, where the Muslim religion has never been that popular. This rebirth will be accompanied by increasing solidarity with Muslims who are in the middle of national or regional separatist struggles, similar to what is now underway in Palestine, Chechnya, Iraq, Kashmir and southern Thailand, which is a
8 9

See also the prognoses of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the end of Chapter 7. World Trends2010 and Global Trends2015 reports were published earlier. The most recent report, Project-2025, highlights basically similar tendencies. 10 "It is unlikely that the globalization process can be slowed down or even stopped. The globalization epoch in the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century crashed as a result of catastrophic wars and a global crisis the Cold War" (from the report).

Chapter 17

229

response to oppression on the side of the government or it being corrupt and inefficient. We shall further see a continuous establishment of informal networks of charitable foundations and madrasas and their utilization by radical elements; reality will push unemployed young people to join those who are afterward recruited by terrorists Serious interest by terrorists in acquiring chemical, biological, radioactive and nuclear weapons increases the potential for large terrorist attacks using weapons of mass destruction." The report also states that "experiencing a new pandemic is just a matter of time. They will be devastating and spread all over the world rapidly if they occur in the huge cities of the developing part of the world with a poorly developed health care system African countries located to the south of the Sahara, China, India, Bangladesh or Pakistan. Globalization will be put in danger if the number of victims in some of the most important countries reaches millions, whereas the mere spread of a disease will interrupt the deliveries of people and goods around the world for a lengthy period of time and make governments allocate huge funds to medical needs. However, new achievements in biotechnology make us hope for further success in controlling the spread of diseases."

It is reported that the status of women status in the global community will have changed: "By 2020 women will gain many rights and freedoms: in majority of the countries of the world they will have increased access to education and political life, and they will be more successful in their struggle for equal rights in employment and labor. In many countries their agenda includes a comprehensive reform program, including management reform and employment reform, which all together creates a basis for the status of women to increase. Development of information and communications infrastructure leads to making the opportunities of men and women equal in terms of receiving education and work, and it helps women to establish social and political organizations. Despite the fact that the number of women holding managerial positions at a national level has increased insignificantly (today, only about ten countries have female leaders), their involvement in politics at the peripheral and municipal level is in increasing a noteworthy manner, especially in rural areas far from political centers." The report also states that "the clandestine market in women, with the revenues of about $4 billion worldwide, will continue developing even further and will occupy second place in terms of profit-making among criminal businesses, yielding only to the drug business. Another trend of concern is feminization of AIDS. The share of women infected with the immune deficiency virus is growing on all continents, except for Western Europe and Australia. Young women comprise 75% of the total number of the infected." The 2020 Project reviews four scenarios of changes in the next 15 years. Those scenarios describe possible "worlds," depending on which trend dominates: Davos World. "The Davos Forum made its own contribution to globalization by way of opening access to the old privileged club of the Western countries to many other states. The roles and statuses of China and India have been changing radically. Their stable economic growth over the next 15 years may impact the globalization process and make it 'less of a Western' type. The Asian giants, as well as other developing countries, continue to develop their economies at a faster rate than those of the Western countries, with their huge internal consumer markets becoming centers of attraction for world business and technology.
"In accordance with the Davos World situation development scenario, stable economic economy will apparently be able to help countries overcome the barriers separating them from each other and may involve a large number of countries and regions in the new world order. On the other hand, those rapid changes may cause tensions and violence. One of the lessons learned from the analysis of this and other scenarios is the conclusion that the process of globalization should be controlled so as not to let it be derailed.

"It is quite possible that Brazil, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates and, with a large caveat, Russia will be able to achieve significant economic progress. External factors climate change, epidemics and an aging population in some countries (a high percentage of unemployed) may be considered potential challenges. The danger of a severe crisis exists as a remote possibility in countries with economies based on supplies of natural resources oil and gas including Russia, Venezuela and others11. "Terrorism remains a physical and strategic challenge. We were forced to establish barriers to be able to protect ourselves; however, the problem is that we have gone so far in it that now we are running a risk of undermining the basis of globalization itself which is free movement of capital, goods, people, etc. The United States is concerned with the fact that they are losing their leadership in development of science and technology, which is passing to Asia." Pax Americana. The United States remains at the center of international politics and maintains its leading role in ensuring global security by means of its presence and activity in hotspots. The current situation continues to be maintained, with the "golden billion" far ahead of others. Political and other discrepancies exist with Europe, and economic confrontation goes on with China. The United States is doomed to face discontent from the side of the poor and developing countries. The problem of Islamic radicalism persists, especially in the Mid11

It is also noted that Russia "is facing a serious demographic crisis caused by a low birth rate, decline of the health care system and a potentially catastrophic situation with continuing spread of AIDS."

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

230

dle East. The international politics of Russia here depends significantly upon its ties with Europe, which is interested in stable supplies of fuel, and confrontation with China, which is aiming at vast uninhabited territories in Siberia. New Caliphate. The Muslims of the world display an active interest and unity in forming a unified supranational theocratic community, the principles and ideals of which contradict Western ones. This movement interferes with the efforts to develop a global informational community, as this community, many people assume, will replace the social structures that have existed in many countries since the Middle Ages. Countries that support this option will face an economic decline and a social crisis as a consequence, and it may also be accompanied by intensification of struggles between different religious movements (similar to the current collision between the Shiites and the Sunnites). Russia will experience problems escalating on its southern borders, and the growth of the Muslim population by many tens of percents will be a significant factor in the domestic politics. Circle of Fear. A significant proliferation of weapons of mass destruction leads to an avalanche effect in which each country, to protect itself (or attack someone), tries to obtain such weapons. This is similar to what is going on with conventional weapons at present. This will make the most powerful countries perform large-scale operations and "preventive interventions" to ensure their own and global security. In this case the process of globalization ceases and the rate of development of the global economy slows. A feeling of insecurity occurs, this becoming a determining factor in international relations. Such scenario may result in an Orwellian world being established all over the planet. A global catastrophe will likely not be far behind. Pessimistic forecasts for the near future have gained momentum under the influence of the global economic crisis, cooperation between Al-Qaeda and Taliban and the recent developments in Pakistan. Options under consideration include a major (probably nuclear) terrorist attack followed by a U.S. retaliatory strike on the Pakistani nuclear centers. The list of predictions also includes escalation of the U.S. and NATO military activities in Transcaucasia with the aim of neutralizing Iran. As was noted above, the present economic crisis might trigger a number of forceful and risky activities. The United States and the West in general are concerned about possible future penetration of China into the raw-material-abundant areas of Siberia and Russia's Far East. Attempts might be made to counteract the growing Chinese influence in the Central Asia. To conclude, it should be mentioned that the scenarios described above have been extrapolated from the current status of affairs in the world and the most probable options based on contemporary criteria have been taken into consideration. However, it should be remembered that unexpected and unpredictable events are quite possible, as has been proven by history and supported by the experience of synergy (see Chapter 1). In politics and sociology, as in technological development, unpredictable events are quite possible. In any case, we should be prepared for the worst, and this is what the authors of the report recommend us to do. Crises in the Evolution of Life on Earth Changes of the environmental conditions have occurred more than once during the four billion years long evolution on the Planet Earth. Such changes involved the atmospheric composition and temperature, Solar radiation intensity, continental topography, cosmic radiation, etc. As it follows from the evolution studies, living organisms demonstrated surprising adaptability to new external conditions, even in the times when most radical changes had occurred. First, protozoa types underwent structural transformations, then primitive organisms developed into more complex species, the transformations being accompanied by the acquisition of new body parts and systems of behavior. At times, natural catastrophes led to almost complete extinction of fauna and flora, but every time some (sometimes a very small fraction) of the organisms survived, transformed and formed the basis for new sprouts of life. One of the first crises associated with external environment changes on our planet was the so-called "oxygen revolution" which occurred approximately 2 billion years ago. It is believed that the Earth's original atmosphere was formed by mantle degassing and had a reductive character. Its main components were carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, ammonia and methane. Then, as a result of several processes which took place on the planet during the first several billion years of its existence, oxygen had accumulated in the Earth's atmosphere, and eventually the atmosphere became oxidative. One of the sources of oxygen were photosynthetic archaebacteria. (According to one version, these processes were stimulated by the reduced nickel content due to the decay in the volcanic activity). Since on the initial stage of evolution most organisms were adapted to oxygen-free atmosphere, the oxygen-emitting cyanobacteria were replaced by carbon-dioxide producing aerobic bacteria. Later, the presence of molecular oxygen in the atmosphere led to the formation of the Earth's ozone shield. Conditions on the planet thus became suitable for a much wider variety of organisms and species with energetically advantageous oxygen breathing had proliferated. This was, in fact, a coevolution a mutually interdependent alteration of living organisms and external environment. In order to survive in an oxygen atmosphere, living organisms "invented" new mechanisms of adaptation (gills, lungs, etc.).

Chapter 17

231

Another important crisis in the Earth's history occurred approximately 530 million years ago. It is commonly referred to as Cambrian Explosion. Some unknown phenomena (of either terrestrial or extraterrestrial origin) led to the appearance of a fundamentally new biological variety. The Cambrian Explosion marked the end of the epoch when the planet was dominated by unicellular organisms and a shift to the development of metazoa and, eventually, large animals. The mystery of the Cambrian Explosion lies in the fact that the shift from the bacteria and protozoa to the new, sophisticated organisms, involved no transitional forms. There are no indications that the shift was preceded by a lengthy process of the accumulation of gradual changes. The new types of organisms appeared within 3-5 million years a negligibly short period on the geological time scale. Also deserving to be noted here is the cataclysm which occurred 245 million years ago, during the Permian Period, when 95% of then oceanic fauna had become extinct. Of the recent cataclysms, best studied is the one associated with the Earth's collision with an asteroid which hit the Yucatan Peninsula approximately 65 million years ago. The explosion led to a kind of a "nuclear winter" causing the extinction of the dinosaurs and many other large animals. At the same time, favorable conditions had formed for the development of the mammals, including our pre-ancestors. Studies of the remnants of fauna and flora found in deep excavations indicate that quite a few cataclysms had occurred in the history of our planet that caused extinction of certain species. Such global catastrophes are believed to be somehow linked to cosmic radiation intensity peaks, Earth's position in the Galaxy, phenomena occurring deep inside the Earth and other factors. Also, global cataclysms occur as the result of the Earth's collisions with large asteroids which apparently take place once in several tens of millions of years. The appearance of homo sapiens and the activities of the human civilization can also be classified as a crisis in the Earth's history (or, to put it mildly, a singular event) which affected the organisms living on the planet12. The last several hundreds of years have witnessed extermination of numerous plant and animal species, massive deforestation, expansion of the deserts, pollution of water, atmosphere and near space. These processes are much faster compared to those described above (several hundreds of years compared to hundreds of thousands or millions of years). In a historically brief period of time, the number of humans on this planet has increased by tens of thousands times and by tens of thousand times exceeds the number of species of similar weight and size.

Thousands and millions of generations came and went, natural selection did its work and numerous mutations occurred; as a result, different forms of life inhabited the terrestrial parts of the globe, the oceans and seas and the air. Various properties, features, structures of organisms and ways of life developed and allowed living beings to perform their main functions adapt to changing habitat, survive and reproduce. Different properties were required depending on the habitat. Mimicry, poison, the complicated collective behavior of ants and bees and so forth developed (according to Darwin) as a result of random changes and were preserved in the following generations. Due to new geological and meteorological conditions, as well as because of the appearance of new and hostile organisms in the area, new ways to survive had to be found. We can only be surprised at the variety and abundance of living organisms, the creativity of nature and its ability to create the most sophisticated species. All the wonderful variety that we can see in flora and fauna have evolved from ancient primitive organisms by means of branching development and adaptation to a changing environment. The mechanisms for developing new features mutations and the wide versatile range of new properties and further selection among them were so efficient that life has been maintained for billions years and, moreover, has been producing increasingly complicated and sophisticated entities as sophisticated as homo sapiens. (Science is continuously discovering new facts proving the possibility of existence of living organisms in the most unusual conditions inside cosmic objects, on the ocean floor, deep inside the Earth, in ice, etc.).

Studying the evolution of our predecessors, their capability to survive and adjust to seemingly unbearable conditions give us grounds for a certain optimism; it means that we may also find our way out of the crisis. However, we need to remember that there is a huge principle difference between our current problems and the wonders of evolution the unusual solutions that were developed by nature over thousands or millions of generations: we do not have millions of years for the changes we need to make. In the present epoch, many factors that determine our life (cause crises), such as changes in the environment, world population and power of weapons, take shape within the lifetime of just a couple of generations (rather often even within the lifetime of one generation), so we cannot hope that we will be able to gradually adjust to the new conditions. However, there is also a positive difference from the earlier situation we have intellect. This allows us understand what is going on and may be quite sufficient to find a way out. All that we have to do now is think, using the most of our minds to resolve the problem of survival. The results of research on the 4-billion-year process of evolution should give us confidence and determination to find a way out, given that blind nature was able to do it many times. According to Ervin Laszlo, the dominance of experience over instinct is what distin12

Here it is appropriate to note that the appearance of consciousness and the power of thought (speech, intellect, written language) represented a qualitative shift the role of which in the evolution was no less important than that of the natural cataclysms mentioned hereabove. The appearance of human consciousness (and the physical enlargement of human brain) as well as the mechanisms of thought, memory, instincts, hereditary transmission, etc. are still an unsolved mystery.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

232

Drawing parallels with the history of our planet, we can speculate on the concept of evolution on a broader scale within the bounds of known Universe. By analogy to the Earth, we can presume that life can emerge and develop on other planets with suitable conditions. High viability of living organisms and the mechanisms of evolution lead to the development of increasingly sophisticated forms of life and, eventually, rational beings appear. They actively embark on the cognition process and soon get hold of the powerful means of destruction. Competition, struggle for survival and inability to keep weapons of mass destruction under control lead the developing civilization to a complete or partial self-destruction of (see Appendix 1).If part of the population survives, there will be a revival, but if there are no survivors, a new evolution cycle will start again from the primitive forms of life (which usually better survive catastrophes). It took only several millions of years for homo sapiens to evolve from primitive animals, and there are lots of "candidates" for becoming pre-ancestors of rational beings in a new evolution cycle. Why similar mutations and developments cannot take place once again? If the mechanisms of mutation and natural selection could make an amoeba into a dinosaur and further into a rational being, it is reasonable to hypothesize that such cycles may occur (or have already occurred?) more than once. The fact that we are not finding any traces of the past civilizations can be explained by geological perturbations. After all, glaciers moved around the plant sweeping everything off on their way, volcanoes erupted, asteroids bombarded the planet, flora and fauna underwent radical transformations under the influence of cosmic radiation, rivers appeared at new places, strong tectonic motions caused mountains to appear there where deep waters had once been, etc. Incidentally, the theory of catastrophes, revivals and cyclicity of civilizations was upheld by many ancient thinkers.

guishes the rapid cultural evolution of human beings from the slower genetic evolution of animals. We are capable of learning from experience, and our consciousness, enriched by the acquired experience, is able to govern our instincts and transcend the limits of the inherited instincts, Laszlo wrote. The very near future will show if our intellect-supported adaptive abilities will be sufficient for civilization to survive.

Technologies of the Near Future Much scientific and technical research is being targeted at specific goals with much allocation of resources; however, the main question remains of whether the estimated results can be achieved in 3, 5, 10 or, maybe, 2030 years. The following are main areas of current research in which advancements and inventions are quite probable, in some instances guaranteed, in the near future:

A world information network easily accessible to almost every person in the world receiving any type of information in any place. The global spread of personal television movies, soap operas, educational and other programs, articles, books via the Internet or other similar systems. Accessibility of the Internet in near space. Digital televisions, stereo television, distance transmittal of odors and stimulation of various emotions. Mobile phones replacing stationary ones, a wide dissemination of affordable devices that are a combination of computers and communication systems. Cheap housing construction. Wide-reaching international educational programs of different levels; development of talent search systems and individual training. Digital cameras and television and video devices. Virtual actors in the film industry. Portable individual oral translators. Development of high-speed trains (300-500 km/hour); unmanned transport. Safe vehicles and roads (computer-aided). Development of significantly more efficient and compact means of transportation; support-based devices with gyroscopic stabilization; portable vertical take-off flying apparatuses; compact cars. Wide use of electric cars of hybrid type and operating on hydrogen fuel. Use of dirigibles in different areas. Wide use of ionic, plasma engines and solar sails in space flight; creation of a nuclear jet engine as a first-stage for space launch apparatuses; creation of electromagnetic acceleration systems and other systems with much higher efficiency than modern space apparatuses have (see below). Construction of living premises, including tourist hotels, workshops and production lines in near space. Space becomes a part of the world economy. Protection of the planet from dangerous asteroids. Further development of telescopes and other instruments for getting new information about the structure of the Universe, possible presence of life in other constellations. Nanotechnology; microscopic mechanisms, surgical microrobots (for example, to remove cancer tumors); new materials and mechanisms with unique properties, production of materials, substances and devices in accordance with the uploaded program. Voice command of machines; Discovery and use of new types of fields, including biological ones; development of remote control systems based on mental field.

Chapter 17

233

Such projects are being discussed as construction of a railroad from America to Siberia, transcontinental routes with magnetic-suspension trains and using the North Sea route and other North Arctic Ocean routes on regular basis, especially taking this region's warming potential into account. The possibility of using submarines for transporting cargo is also being discussed. Mobile (to be assembled in situ) atomic power stations are currently in the process of construction. Various possibilities for using nuclear explosions for peaceful purposes, for example, for large-scale ground excavations13, intensification of oil and gas production, or placing heavy spacecraft into orbit, are proposed on occasion. Work on obtaining larger-scale use out of the World Ocean is underway. Covering as it does most of the planet's surface, the ocean affects the planet climate significantly; it contains huge amounts of edible material and mineral and energy resources. We still have a lot to learn about other living organisms, volcanic activity and other phenomena of the depths of the sea. It will be also interesting to have research laboratories and premises suitable for people to stay there long-term. Construction of transport tunnels and connection of island states to the continents will continue. It cannot be ruled out that a transatlantic transportation tunnel connecting the Old World with the New World will be built one day and a bridge over the Bering Strait connecting Asia and America.
13

High-temperature superconductor materials (at close to indoor temperature?); development of electrical devices of new types; Development of new energy transmission and accumulation systems. High-efficiency solar-energy generators; construction of large solar power stations, for example, in Sahara. Orbiting solar-cell power generating stations transmitting electrical power back to Earth. Electric storage batteries that last for decades. Wide use of renewable sources of energy wind, tidal and others; use of biological fuels. Helium-fuel-based nuclear power stations; fast-breeder neutron reactors. Hydrogen power generation: efficient production of hydrogen with use of it as a basic type of fuel. Thermonuclear power stations. Steam-gas-fuel-based power stations among the most common power stations. Wide use of new types of solid fuel and new mining techniques. Energy-saving and quickly rechargeable batteries. Expanding use of radiation technology in industries. Advanced organic compounds synthesis (medications, foodstuff, etc.) using genetic engineering and nanotechnology. Wide use of robots with a near-human intellect. Predomination of robotized and computer-aided operations in plants. Further advancement and expansion of use of laser systems. Direct implantation of computer systems into the human brain; wide use of artificial imitators of muscle and bone controlled directly by impulses from the brain. Creation of bioelectrical suits to make the physical load on invalids and elderly people easier. Merging of living cells with microchips. Independently powered artificial heart, other artificial organs, artificial blood. Advanced artificial production of human embryos. Generation of certain parts of a patient's cells. Progress in the use of stem cells (treatment, rejuvenation, etc.). Refinement of cloning techniques. Genetic therapy DNA repair. Means to fight cancer, AIDS and other widespread diseases. Significant expansion and increasing efficiency of the global epidemiological laboratories and medical institutions system to fight the newly emerging virus and other infections. In medicine, focusing on early diagnosis and preventive treatment of diseases; automatic recording (and analysis) of the condition of the organism on a regular basis; implanted chips; medical preparations of high-precision targeted action. Deciphering and description of each person's genome. Wide use of correction of genetic defects. Mastering a genetic mechanism for significant extension of lifespan. Comprehending mechanisms of animal communication. Reconstruction of a number of extinct species. Understanding of phenomena and life at the bottom of the ocean and processes in the deep interior of the Earth. Forecasting earthquakes and other natural calamities; understanding of the impact solar and cosmic radiation have on the environment and organisms on Earth. Artificial extension of the onshore area; construction of man-made islands. Improved shopping areas malls and automatic (cashier-free) payment for purchases made.

To study these possibilities, dozens of test nuclear blasts were performed in the United States and Soviet Union from 1960 to 1980.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

234

It should be noted that, in the case of an unfavorable global political scenario, the trend toward construction of large engineering facilities ships, buildings, bridges, tunnels, etc. may decline, as well as that of building huge cities. Challenges related to struggles with terrorism, with the possibility of weapons of mass destruction being used, may change the way of life of the current population especially taking into account that we can spend the predominant part of our time outside cities in autonomous houses where everything required for normal life is assured.

New tools for microworld research are being developed charged particle accelerators. The Large Hadron Collider of about 8.5 kilometers in diameter is scheduled to be put into operation at the European Research Center CERN very soon. A plan for construction of a linear 30-kilometers-long fast breeder is being discussed. The outcomes of the experiments at such facilities will allow us to move forward in our understanding of the structure of matter, the origin and structure of the Universe. The structure of substance and the behavior and classification of elementary particles are the fundamental issues of the universe. Fundamental changes are likely to take place in systems of education to change the ratio of highly educated specialists to medium and low-qualified workers. Workplace training and education over a person's entire service life will intensify and become increasingly widespread. The possibilities of several new and rapidly developing sciences are described in Chapter 13, and of new types of weapons in Chapter 12. It is practically impossible to describe all of the expected outcomes in development of numerous areas of research. It seems that there are changes to be made to the organization of research itself the boundaries between different areas of research should be eliminated, the methodologies should be made consistent with each other and trends should be used that seem to belong to different areas the requirement of developing a universal (cognitive) science is being increasingly discussed The forecasts of the British Foundation of the Future regarding people's health and improvements in standard of living are that by the end of the 21st century life expectancy will going to be around 125 years. People will being learning at 3, with many obtaining up to three higher educations in the course of their lives, the last one at the age of 60 or higher. The potential development of the political situation is described in Chapters 9, 11, 17 and 18 in this book. (For predictions regarding the size of the population of the planet, see Chapter 4, the section on demography. A number of experts' observations and considerations regarding the future are contained in other chapters.)

Past experience and chaos theory prove that, apart from the forecast and quite possible achievements in progress described above herein, some unexpected discoveries will also occur, including ones that contradict our current perceptions and theories (or, to be more precise, that expand and further develop ). Taking a look back, we can recall that many radical inventions and events, even on the very eve of them being made or taking place, were considered to be absolutely impossible: experts were denying the possibility of heavier-than-air flight just a few years before the construction of the first airplane, and the possibility of generating nuclear power was denied not long before World War II. The possibility (and need) to of wide use of televisions, computers and a number of other inventions, which have changed life all over the planet, was also denied some time ago14.. There is no doubt that we have many radical changes ahead in many different areas of knowledge first and foremost in those that are most perplexing. This includes investigation of the origin and structure of the universe, the structure of matter, the origin of life, the existence of other fields and ways of communication between living beings and probably the social and political structure of the world. With the natural sciences developing, human society seems to be ready for almost any unexpected information, for new phenomena to which we could actually apply the word "magic" though not the way the Bible implies it, of course. This is what makes a significant part of the population expect new miracles, in many cases it inclining them to believe in extraordinary theories and phenomena parapsychology, telekinesis, UFOs and many other such things15. Developing Space Many predictions for the near future are connected with the development of outer space. New data regarding the structure and origin of the universe and planets around other solar systems continue to be reported based on the results of current studies. Advanced construction, technology and computers make it possible to

14 "If the Americans need telephones, that's their problem. We are quite fine with using copyboys" (said by the head of the English Postal Service after the first telephone set was demonstrated to him. 15 The natural question arises as to what exactly is to be done to believe or not believe in UFOs, telepathy, parapsychology and the like. The answer is: don't hurry to make up your mind. Wait until the discovery is repeated and tested, until experts have proven that it is a fact and not a figment of the mind. It does not necessarily even need to be explained. We know many facts and phenomena that are proven to exist in reality although we are still unable to comprehend them in full detail. A great number of attempts have been made to explain mysterious (as of today) phenomena using scientific knowledge. For example, aircraft crashing in the Bermuda triangular may be explained by an unknown natural source generated ultrasonic pulses capable of causing a failure in the pilot's consciousness, or long-distance transmission of information by some special encoding of signals from the brain that can be received only by close relatives. Of course, one should try to follow the development of natural science as much as possible; however, researchers provide explanations that popularize the achievements, ideas and possibilities

Chapter 17

235

We are not far from a time in which it will be more useful to fabricate fragments of space station facilities at locations not on Earth on the Moon or artificial satellites. In this way, the problem of the Earth's gravity will be resolved to a significant extent. As mentioned before, it seems that almost material can be recovered in the Moon, Mars or the asteroids. Under the control of robots or a small number of people, facilities will produce equipment required for the construction of space industrial facilities and settlements, as well as means for ensuring lives and other products. We shall have to pass through a difficult stage moving the first operations out to extraterrestrial space. Then, and on this basis, we shall be able to accelerate construction activities in space. Resources and energy are actually not limited in the extraterrestrial space (even within our Solar System alone) at least, as compared to what we have on Earth and we need to make an effort to start using them on a large
16 "There are a total of approximately 800 spacecraft in outer space, over 400 of which belong to the United States and about 100 to Russia. Of those orbiting satellites that belong to Russia, 55 serve the Defense Ministry, 35 serve the national economy, and one is for research purposes" (Anatoly Perminov, director of Federal Space Agency, Izvestia, March 2005). "Two hundred and fifty thousand people work in the rocket-building and space industries of Russia, which have 112 enterprises, including 66 research and engineering organizations" (Izvestia, July, 2006).

start designing a telescope of approximately 40 (or even 100) meters in diameter consisting of many sections. There are possibilities of elevating large telescopes to the upper levels of the atmosphere using dirigibles, and the potential of radiotelescopes is also rapidly expanding. Therefore, we are likely to start getting much new information soon. SETI program the search for signals from or traces of extraterrestrial civilizations that has been enthusiastically performed since the second half of the 20th century is alive and active today. Following the discovery of some 350 plants (though significantly larger than ours) over the recent few years, the Kepler telescope designed to discover Earth-like planets was launched in March 2009. Probability is high that many of such planets have suitable conditions for the origin of life and evolution of living organisms. Nevertheless, it is is still unlikely that we ever receive any signals from extraterrestrial civilizations (due to reasons provided in Appendix 1). As far as the potential rate of development of near space for current common needs is concerned, it was mentioned hereabove that in the course of the first 10 years of astronautics, the weight of satellites has increased by nearly 1,500 times from 83 kilograms for the first satellite to over 100 tons (under the Apollo Program, followed by Space-Shuttle and Buran), not to mention the complexity of the devices installed inside them. Speaking in general, in the research and technology of the 20th century, growth of some parameters by thousands or even millions of times within one or a few decades happened quite often: such rapid leaps took place in generation of isotopes in the atomic industry; in computer parameters, and in communications development, of the Mars landing of the Phoenix automatic not to mention bombs. In the very beginning of the last cen- Reconstruction station (NASA/JPL- Caltech/University of Arizona) tury, less than 10 years passed between the flight of the first aircraft and their mass production. For the majority of people, going into space seemed to be a matter of a far future just before the first satellite appeared; however, now, 50 years since then, the space around the Earth is so full of manmade objects that avoiding collisions with them is a problem. "What seemed to be unrealistic for centuries, what used to be a challenging dream yesterday, today is a realistic task, and tomorrow just a fact" (Academician Sergei Korolyov). The rate of progress depends, to a significant extent, on what is required and what resources and funds are available for the problem to be solved. A short thesis is almost enough to describe the status of the development of research and technology: "Whatever can be implemented in principle will be implemented in fact." The most important issue is to what extent the global community can focus joint efforts on resolving problems in such areas as the development of space, ecology, medicine, etc. As far as new space development projects are concerned, the leading countries almost in every case have doubts about whether to develop space stations, bases on the Moon, are ships to travel to Mars jointly by themselves. The following are just a few of the largest international spacedevelopment projects: joint launches of research devices, communications systems, a space station capable of years-long operation, and a platform for launching rockets from equatorial latitudes. The trend toward doing things jointly will inevitably increase and predominate if military aspects of the new activities are excluded16.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

236

Two NASA self-propelled apparatuses have been successfully exploring the surface of Mars for over two years now. Plans for sending apparatuses to the Moon are being discussed by the European Union, Japan and China. One of the addresses made by the former president of the United States announced that the mission of the country should be "implementing in reality the brave vision of continuous and acceptable development of space by means of manned ships and automatic apparatus, starting with developing the Moon as a first step followed by further expeditions to Mars and so on." According to one plan, four U.S. astronauts will spend a week on the Moon in 2018, the cost of this program being in the range of $100 billion. (Probability is high that these plans, just like several others, will be revised under the pressure of the global economic crisis.) In the near future, the Russian Soyuz and American Space Shuttle are planned to be used for transportation of cargo and astronauts to a space station. According to another plan for a flight to the Moon, the United States will construct a six-person ship, the Orion, of approximately 25 tons in weight. The possibility is also being discussed of constructing the Clipper a shuttle of a new type designed and developed in Russia. The main, front cabin is designed for multiple uses; the total weight is 15 tons, with a crew of 6 people plus 700 kilograms of a cargo (versus the three-person and 200-kilogram capacity of a Soyuz). It will be launched with the help of the new Onega Russian rocket a variant of the Soyuz. The ship can take off and land at different sites. The possibility also exists that a modernized Soyuz will fly to the Moon. There are also several other projects now being proposed by different Russian organizations. It is probable that we will be able to develop cooperation with the European Union and even make a joint flight to the Moon.

scale. Some steps can be made in the near future: reports give a potential time frame for development of an inhabited base on the Moon before 2020, and for manned flights to Mars around the 2030s.

For extensive development of space there are other research areas of interest that are focused on finding new and radically more efficient ways to overcome the problem of gravity. Today the weight of a satellite when it is in Earth orbit is only several percent of its weight at launch. In this case, at the start, the engine power and fuel quantity must be such that a huge device can take off and accelerate. Moreover, the low efficiency causes significant pollution of the atmosphere from the rocket engine that will soon be unacceptable. The assumption can be made that soon approaches will be used under in which only the last one or two rocket stages are accelerated in a partially vacuumed long channel17. Back in the first half of the last century, a type of weapon was discussed for which a one- or several-stage rocket was used as a missile. Electromagnetic18 or other acceleration techniques can be used in such a device. So far, unfortunately, there are no such analogues with similar parameters; however, use of efficient electron accelerators increasing particle velocity almost up to that of light with an efficiency close to 95% causes optimism. Similar plants were used to run successful tests on efficient acceleration of ions particles thousands of times heavier than electrons. (Although it is true that these are charged microparticles, even in this case we have experienced significant difficulties that took us decades to overcome)19. In recent years a number of publications have appeared on accelerating macroobjects up to cosmic velocities20. The use of special aircraft for the initial acceleration of space objects is reported to be quite promising. Successful results in this area were obtained recently by the American SpaceShipOne. The cost of a flight beyond the atmosphere per person has dropped down to $150,000-200,000, and thousands of people are getting on the list to wait for their time to make such a flight. The intent is to start flights on a regular basis in the near future, and then the cost may drop even further. One such program provides for Russia to be involved and use its carrier aircraft for launch17 A recently declassified U.S. project called for accelerating a 120-ton apparatus to a speed of 2.5 km/sec in a 3-kilometer long, 7 m diameter tunnel, with the help of compressed hydrogen (320 atmospheres; 1,700oC.). The compression and heating of hydrogen was to have been accomplished with the help of superheated and compressed steam (550oC and over 500 atmospheres). Steam tank was designed as a spherical vessel made of steel with the diameter of 100 meters. The steam tank was to be connected with the hydrogen tank (a 400 meter long cylinder with the diameter of 25 meters) positioned over it though a system of 70 rapid response valves. Upon leaving the tunnel, the apparatus was to be further accelerated to the first cosmic velocity by a booster rocket (Popular Mechanics, August, 2007). 18 See, for example: Mikhail Galanin et al., Numerical Modeling of Spatial 3D Phenomena Upon Electromagnetic Acceleration of Conductive Macrobodies// Mathematical Modeling, 1999, Vol. 11, No. 8, pp. 3-22. 19 Evgeny Abramyan et al., Intensive Electronic Beams, 1984. 20 Apparently, one of the reasons why no research was conducted on injection (acceleration) for heavy facilities without rocket engines was that most of the researchers were aimed at resolving "defense" issues: the desire was for each military rocket to be located separately from the others, with some changing location systematically. This is why it was not practical to construct huge attackable launching facilities.

Chapter 17

237

ing a space vehicle. There are plans for the near future to build hotels in the space for tourists and organize tours. In the picture above, a variant of such a hotel is shown several separate blocks arranged in the form of a cluster. It is possible that inflatable constructions with multiple layer shells will be used that will take on a predetermined shape in orbital conditions. Research and development of an apparatus that would be accelerated by a direct-flow type of engine to up to ten times the speed of sound, which will be used for a space ship to reach the edge of the atmosphere, is taking place. There are publications in the press regarding a possibility of creating space elevators that would transport cargo into orbit with the help of wire made of ultrastrong materials. A satellite will be launched out to an equatorial geosynchronous orbit of 36,000 kilometers and hang over the same point of the Earth's surface on a permanent basis. A cable will be laid from the satellite down to the Earth, with an elevator traveling along it. The major issue here is the durability of the cable material, which needs to be many times higher than that of any currently existing materials. Such devices could significantly reduce the cost of cargo transportation to Earth orbit from the $10,00020,000 per kilogram it costs today. However fantastic it may seem, it cannot be ruled out that the durability problem will be solved by the rapidly developing science of nanotechnology. For flights to Mars and other remote celestial objects, it is suggested to accelerate the spacecraft, which would have first been first raised to near space area, using a "cosmic drive" a device similar to a sling.

Longer-Term Forecasts Konstantin Tsiolkovsky's book The Living Universe, written about a hundred years ago, contains some interesting statements: "A flow of life will head out for the Sun, residing around it in man-made houses constructed and located between the Martian and Earth orbits, as well as closer and further from the Sun. The Solar System will not only be comfortable for life, but also inhabited quite soonThere will many versatile and perfect, in their way, varieties of people adjusted to different atmospheres, to life in vacuum, etc. A human type will have been developed that will be able to live on just solar light. (In addition, it is quite possible that a variety of people may exist born and living at zero gravity with thin bones and weak muscles, not able to exist under gravity or, vice versa, able to live on larger planets than the Earth Evgeny Abramyan). "The excess population that was too large for the Sun to cope with will be sent to the free, uninhabited solar systems. Given that interplanetary trips take years, interstellar ones may take hundreds of thousand. Machines going on such trips will be huge not only in terms of the number of passengers, but also in the size of the energy and material stores, which must be sufficient for voyages of thousands of years in the cold stellar desert21. What is impossible about this, and can it be any other way? If minerals were transformed into a human being, then how can a human being live on with all his faults, not getting rid of them and not striving for a perfect form? If we have passed over from dead to living matter, to a way of thinking, to modern intellectual and technical progress, then just imagine what we will develop ourselves into within millions of years! If a being has reached a stage of understanding the universe in its development, become able to construct railroads, ships, factories, aircraft, telegraph, the radio, speaking devices, etc., why not hope for progress to go on and take us to the stage of victors over all the planetary system and the suns around us? The progress in modern machinery that shocks us now is a matter of a couple of hundred years (N.B. Evgeny Abramyan) but there are thousands and millions of years more ahead. Who of the most brilliant people of ancient times foresaw the present progress? Just like them, we cannot foresee the future."22 One of the leaders of the Soviet space program, Academician Valentin Glushko, said that "the human species is making only the initial steps in the way path out by Tsiolkovsky: 'this is the path to the limitless space of the universe, and this path has no end, just as the progress of humanity has no end.'" Some famous physicists of the second half of the 20th century also talked about developing space. Freeman Dyson (United States, 1960) said that "within several thousand years after entering the stage of technological development, any intellectually capable species will occupy the artificial biosphere surrounding its mother star (for us, it is the Sun)." In the 1980s, Gerard O'Neil, an American physicist, made the suggestion to start designing space colonies. A colony for 10,000 people, according to his design, was to be 1 kilometer long and 100 meters wide in radius. Stephen
21 Of course, it is not easy to imagine your life in a closed ship flying to another world for a long time. It would be like a tribe isolated from the rest of the world in the jungle of the Amazon River Basin, only at a different intellect and different way of sustaining life, although the crew would be able to be involved in some events on Earth for some period of time with the means of communication currently available. Such a ship would not to carry people of different specializations to ensure a full-fledged life for many generations. It is impossible for contemporary science to envision an appropriate mindset for such a crew. 22 Above, it was written that the intellect, which developed in the process of evolution as a powerful means of preserving the human species, has improved so much that it has presented a danger to its own survival. However, if the Tsiolkovsky scenario is implemented, then the entire evolution of the intellect will have contributed to the main mission preservation and wide propagation of the species although in an extremely wide and universal scope that is difficult to imagine today.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

238

Hawking, one of the best-known contemporary physicists, said in 2001 that "I do not think that the human species will survive the next thousand years unless we go into space."23. Quite recently a project Life Boat was started in Europe that is based on the concept of giant circumterrestrial space settlements "arks." The participants in the project say that their idea and the facility constructed based on it would cause a radical change in the evolution of civilization. One of the arguments in favor of such a plan is that there are no large technical restrictions on such facilities. Andrey Sakharov, in his Nobel Lecture "World. Progress. Human Rights" (1975), said about civilizations in the universe in a wider context that "I support the cosmological hypothesis in accordance with which the development of the universe repeats in its larger aspects an infinite number of times. In this case other civilizations, including most fortunate ones, must have existed an infinite number of times in some 'past' and will exist on 'future' pages of the book of the universe. However, this should not denigrate our sincere desire to respond to the call of the Reason and ensure a decent life in this world, where we have appeared for a brief moment from the black nothingness of the unconscious existence of matter, like a flash in the dark ..." As was described above, predictions for the long-term future concern not only the development of space and study of the laws of nature, but also the modification of human nature and the intellect and, consequently, social and political changes. Various combinations of and symbioses between organic, natural organisms human beings and artificially created intellectual devices may become realistic if the rate of gathering knowledge continues to grow. Artificially created intelligent constructs would include artificial intelligence, robots, cyborgs, and genetically modified human beings. This is to repeat what Tsiolkovsky said: "there will many versatile and perfect, in their way, varieties of people." Some of our contemporaries, for example, Francis Fukuyama and many others, write about the same issue. Moreover, it is likely that human beings will be managing the evolution of other species on a wider scale, creating new beings with desired properties. Several different scenarios of development are possible, and each of them will lead us to create technoorganic and intelligent beings, and it is quite possible that they will compete with each other. The quality of civilization will change or, if otherwise, its carrier will be different (See also Chapter 13). One of the basic issues is to what extent new generations understand and use the experience of their predecessors, without which it is impossible for civilization to survive and develop. As in our century, the coexistence of different communities and generations and the prevention of mortal struggle between them will be one of the main issues. Living space and resources are usually limited, and it is always "better to preserve them the elite" those who are needed more or are judged more valuable based on some criteria. Thus, the eternal principle of evolution may become the most critical one: it is the strongest who survive, or, more precisely, the one who can better adapt. Of course, we can hope that, at a higher level of rational development (be it natural, artificial or a combination thereof), the understanding of the fact that wars are unacceptable will prevail, that emotions and instincts are secondary and that it is always easier to find a compromise. Using contemporary language, we can also say that we will have to deal with social and political issues ensuring tolerance, peaceful coexistence, etc. We cannot say now what our future generations or successors will be. In the era of artificial intelligence, if it comes, many current environmental problems will vanish, because the new intelligent beings will be able to exist in a wider range of environmental parameters. With respect to this, we should note that another approach exists, according to which the current stage of the development of the intellect is a type of intrauterine growth, whereas at further stages the intellect will qualitatively change, breaking free into space and developing remote worlds on a wide scale24. "The ever-living human-computer will no longer be a human being. It will be a superhuman, a cyborg but not a human being in any way. It is irrelevant if it is better or worse, because it will be different in all respects intellectually, psychologically and emotionally. It will be a different species, not like us at all" (Boris Strugatsky). Among other predictions there is a one that a technological singularity (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity) would occur in the middle of this century, and, therefore, no accurate predictions can be made for the following developments. We can go far in imagining the remote future; however, in this book the author is making an attempt to focus on the issues of the near future and on the ways of coping with current critical problems.

23 "Using the process of annihilation of matter and antimatter it will be possible to accelerate a spacecraft to a sub-light speed and reach a neighboring stellar system as quickly as within six years, while the crew of that spacecraft would perceive that somewhat less time had elapsed," quoted from Stephen Hawking. 24 The same ideas are sometimes expressed in other words: the increasing growth of knowledge and achievements in the area of high technology gives us grounds to believe that the world is moving toward a certain evolutionary asymptote, with many development parameters tending toward infinity as they approach it. That is, civilization is approaching a critical period, and it is difficult to say what damage will be caused by passing through it. To be truthful, as in similar processes occurring in a number of physical systems, the suggestion can be made that such explosive instabilities at some point in time will lead to saturation and cause no cataclysm. The same situation can also be described in a different way: we are approaching a technological singularity, a transhuman period of development, and the human species is just an intermediary and not the final chain in evolution.

Chapter 17

239

Other possible discoveries and sensations of the future include development (or discovery in space) and use of antimatter, preservation of the mind of a dying individual, achieving immortality (see Chapter 13) and creation of artificial "living" organisms (probably on an inorganic basis). Another brave (?) idea is being discussed regarding implanting a "humanistic" taboo into the brain of all people that prohibits wars and causing damage to others25. Examples of such unusual, fantastic ideas can be taken from any field of knowledge. Here, it is appropriate to again keep in mind that the most significant breakthroughs in science and technology, followed by truly fantastic changes in people's life, are often catalysed by radical, sometimes unexpected, inventions or discoveries. It should be noted that numerous achievements in research and science go along with a number of paradoxes and, to be frank, complete incomprehension of some radical events and facts. These include the fact that our universe was born out of nothing (?) about 13.7 billion years ago; the existence of unknown dark matter and dark energy, which make up about 95% of the entire universe and about which we know almost nothing; enormous cataclysms far out in space; development of a living matter from inorganic substance; and a number of other facts that can not be explained at present. It is not surprising that researchers discuss ideas that seem almost insane (or mystical) that seem to contradict to existing knowledge and making a radical breakthrough in new areas of research26; in this case the stages of our comprehension of the new corresponding to what Ernest Rutherford says on the subject in Footnote 16 to Chapter 2 how to distinguish these revelations and tell actual discoveries from the mad, seemingly absurd, ideas that are pouring into many areas of research as if from a horn of plenty?

25

26 The

Alexei Gorodetsky sang that "Only the genes of theft and murder cannot be removed from people." possibility of traveling in time and the parallel existence of many worlds in different dimensions, as well as the origin of "space-time bubbles" and others.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

240

Chapter 18

Global Projects That May Help Civilization In order to survive, human civilization should undertake efforts aimed at changing its pattern of development, which is currently spontaneous and uncontrolled. Rearrangement of mindsets and abolition of a number of dogmas, practices, and systems of relations between countries, communities, and individuals is an area of unmatched importance. Consciousness transformation programs should be supplemented with radical changes (global projects) in the spheres of disarmament, technology, economy, and geopolitics. The technological and organizational projects of the previous century were monumental in scale, but the time has come to ascend to a higher level of projects in terms of scope, complexity, investment and duration. To succeed, the relevant programs should be worked out in painstaking detail and broadly promoted. Gifted young people will have to be selected, trained, and educated to carry them out. The 21st century should become an age of a new way of life that of nonviolence and tolerance, the age of a turning point in the world outlook of an overwhelming majority of people, or at least in that of our leaders. The age of Ivory Tower speculations and dreams is over. The age of action is upon us if we really want to survive.
f the possible futures enumerated in the previous chapter, the most desirable and acceptable is a stable and sustainable development in which mankind controls its own evolution and minimizes the risk of global catastrophes. When contemplating this option of the future, the emphasis is always placed on the necessity to modify our consciousness, mindset, and modes of behavior, which are rooted in ages long passed that are no longer acceptable in the world we live in. An ideology of peace must be worked out and implemented. What else is of vital importance? The existing arsenals should be eliminated, and research and production of weapons (weapons of mass destruction, first and foremost) ended. Scientific and technological advances, and technologies as such, should be oriented to environmental conservation and the solution of the humanitarian problems of the sustainable existence of civilization. Economic development of the backward countries is another necessity. The gap in living standards the last several centuries have generated must be bridged. Finally, a new geopolitics is needed for the purpose of arranging the world order in such a manner as to a priori rule out the necessity of armies and probability of armed clashes.

Implementation of the necessary reforms will only be possible through dramatic changes in numerous aspects of our lives. Hereinafter, we will ponder a variant of modernization split into five global programs or projects centered on mindset, disarmament, technology, economics, and geopolitics. Their organization may draw on the experience of the successful national and international projects of the recent past the Manhattan Project, the Soviet nuclear and rocket programs, the Apollo lunar program, and the decoding of the human genome. These programs owe their success to gifted specialists, sound basic assumptions, proper organization, and corresponding financing1. These projects also do not represent all the experience available to be drawn upon. There is also the European Union, an alliance of peace made by the majority of European countries, which constitutes a truly unique experience of political and socioeconomic reform. These programs and events have had a radical effect on the world. It does not really matter (for the purposes of this chapter) that most of the above-mentioned programs were essentially military. That is to be expected of mankind: the greatest advances and discoveries are made in pursuit

Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Nikita Moiseev stressed that "mankind is approaching another turning point in history, one that with a high degree of probability will change the planetary picture and deposit us in new channels of development with new concepts of values and new stimuli We should be looking for reasonable ways, for means to alter the human mindset and values in accordance with the living conditions awaiting us Man's collective intelligence is the only means to avert the forthcoming catastrophe." Echoing him, American astronaut Edgar Mitchell wrote that "we need collective political will to make the necessary steps on the global scale or we will suffer the consequences of our inaction The choice of the course leading to a stable future depends on our perception and wisdom." Professor Akop Nazaretian for his part warned that "the critically important question of today is whether mankind manages to develop comprehensive mechanisms of control in the spheres of technology, law, politics, morals and psychology adequate to the rapid technical progress before it is too late."

1 The Soviet nuclear program, for example, was launched in a devastated country that had lost millions of lives in the worst war in history. It took the Soviet Union several years to set up an unprecedented industry that comprised hundreds of enterprises with previously unknown technologies, to build dozens of cities and to train personnel from technicians to scientists. Hundreds of thousands were mobilized and set to work on what certainly constituted an unusual task. The Soviet Union became the leader in the level and scope of projects in a matter of years. If that is not an example of an ability to rise up to a grandiose and unusual intellectual and organizational challenge, then I do not know what is.

Chapter 18 241

of military objectives. It is necessary to display the same adroitness in peaceful matters, in the organization of projects to preserve civilization of gargantuan scope and complexity. The global crisis we see developing in our era does not have analogs in history, and getting out of it seems to require ascending to a higher level of the scope, complexity, and time span of the projects to be undertaken2. Much will be required. The services of the best specialists in their respective fields will have to be enlisted, young talents spotted and nurtured, actions planned in detail, projects as such divided into phases, means invented to introduce the necessary corrections as the projects proceed along the charted paths, and other organizational steps taken. Difficulties should be expected as well, not the least of them being the resistance of those to be affected by the intended changes, be it a reduction of their status, loss (albeit provisional) of income, or loss of whatever benefits people have learned to accept as a given. Opposition to these projects will be ferocious, as is always the case when changes are sufficiently drastic. Their arguments are fairly predictable: Are these dangers so pressing that we really have to abandon our habits and rules and the old ways? How serious is the threat of a global catastrophe?3 The content of the programs discussed below corresponds to our current knowledge and understanding of the problems facing us. Both will change and improve as the years pass. All the programs are interrelated and mutually complementary. They encompass a spectrum of questions, more or less, that have been debated over since the previous century. The funds required will amount to trillions of dollars, but several potential sources may already be listed: reduction and eventual suspension of arms expenditures and what is spent on maintenance of standing armies; reserves and surplus fortunes of the wealthiest states, corporations, and charity funds; education and advanced training of the population of the developing countries; growth of average labor productivity throughout the world caused by scientific and technological advance, the broad use of robots, and computerization of industry; transition to less consumption in the wealthy countries; and development of extraterrestrial resources. I. Consciousness The main features of consciousness4, that manifest themselves in traditions, ways of life, modes of behavior, and morality have evolved in the long struggle for survival shaped by the environment, the need to serve physiological needs, and the basic instincts. The changing conditions of life necessitated transformation of consciousness. Whoever had the best-adapted mindset, capable of rising up to the situation, won out and survived. (It was the strongest, the cleverest, the better organized, and frequently the most aggressive who stood a better chance of survival.) In recent history, however, the rapid and ever-increasing pace of changes spanning many spheres of life has left the transformation of consciousness far behind and unable to work out new and necessary traits at a more or less corresponding rate. Consciousness lacks the time it needs to mold itself to the new circumstances, to provide a kind of anchor in the fluently changing world, and this lag becomes a threat to mankind's very existence5. Nevertheless, as the philosopher and futurist Ervin Laszlo says, "cultural mutation is faster and more efficient than that of the gene pool It may be consciously planned and deliberately implemented. This is becoming a prerequisite for survival in the 21st century. We are facing a choice between degradation that will lead to crisis and collapse and evolution that will open way to a new world." ("I have no doubt concerning consciousness' capacity for a deep transformation at the personal level, or that this transformation provided it takes place on a major scale will improve our chances for survival," quoted from Stanislav Grof.)

2 Projects to save human civilization and the idea of using the experience of the 20th century's jumbo projects were originally put forth by the author of this book back in 2000 in the article Dinosaurs Died Quickly. Aren't We Up to the Same Fate? published in the Argumenty i Fakty newspaper (No. 25, 2000) (see the References section). 3 The Russian philosopher Pyotr Shchedrovitsky stated on the technology of promotion of new ideas that "to begin with, new and unusual ideas should be planted in the ideology of the elite, of the individuals and strata that command respect and whose authority is unchallenged. These ideas should then make it into textbooks and curricula. The new curricula should be used to get people accustomed to the new ideas. Implementation of innovations requires an adequate level of culture and education and requires readiness of the mind for change. The appearance of a new social technology takes a considerable time interval" (Fortune Telling The Shocking Truth from Sergey Lukyanenko, Vladimir Levi, and Sergey Kapitsa by Dmitry Aksenov). 4 The notion of "human traits" is also used to convey what is termed "consciousness" or "mindset," (see quotes from Aurelio Peccei in Chapter 17). It was Peccei who validated the necessity of radical changes in "human traits." 5 "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them," Albert Einstein said. Hence, the principal objective is to abandon the old mindset and march ahead.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

242

As the 20th century's Russian philosopher Daniil Andreev put it, "the prime tasks are the raising of a noble individual, the installation of universal prosperity, assistance to the development in mankind of the highest abilities and serene creativity, consolidation of efforts with all scientists in humanistic fields, and the transformation of the World Federation of states into a Brotherhood."

A thoroughly planned and considered rearrangement, a rupture, of consciousness is needed. The methods of solving to the existing problems must be brought in line with reality. Recognition of the inadequacy and shortcomings of our mindset should provide an impetus for its reinvigoration6. The pace of transformation of consciousness is of paramount importance as well, as it should match the rate of development of the technogenic era. We cannot hope to meet the challenges generated by the existing difficulties (ecological, economic, social, demographic, political, religious, and others) without having our consciousness transformed first. Some quotations that convey the same idea follow. "The challenges that we face are enormous and deeply rooted in relationships neglected for far too long New ways of thinking an integrated multidimensional approach to the problems of global sustainability have long been needed, and it is now up to us to decide whether the especially difficult challenges that we are facing today will jolt us into finding and accepting them" ("Science, Sustainability, and the Human Prospect," Peter H. Raven, Science, vol. 297, 2002). "The backward mindset of the political establishment in the world powers is one of the most serious challenges mankind faces" (political scientist Sergey Karaganov). "Survival requires that people profoundly revise the key notions of man and society and abandon their ethnic and religious identification Civilization on this planet is otherwise doomed" (Akop Nazaretian). One of the millions of species, the species that views itself as the prime intelligence on Earth behaves in a manner that in the long run collides with its own interests, Philosopher Peter Russell comes to conclude. Evolution of consciousness and changes in man's inner world, he went on to say, are needed so as to correspond to the fantastic achievements in the sphere of material development. "Man is laying his hands on dreadful weapons that make all previous ones look like toys. Mankind's future depends on a mental breakthrough, on morality" (Nikolai Berdyaev). Vyacheslav Stepin has written that "it is important that mankind shift from the old technogenic mentality to a new vision of the world. Certain limits must be imposed on my choice of methods so that I pick up only those scenarios where survival is guaranteed. These limitations shall be based not only on the objective knowledge of possible directions of the system's development, but also on certain moral values, acknowledgment of the priority of virtue, beauty and human life. If this new mentality is the necessary condition for mankind's survival, then the ethics of nonviolence shall be considered to be fundamental, and, I would like to add, the very best and inspiring part of this new mentality." To a considerable extent, the changes that have taken place in the world are inseparable from mankind's intellectual activities. The human intellect and common sense are capable (we earnestly hope) of removing the discrepancy between reality and the old methods of dealing with pressing problems. The list of traits and instincts that interfere with our existence and generate dangers is easy to compile: it includes aggressiveness, belligerence (the inability or unwillingness to stop, regardless of a looming conflict), cruelty, bigotry, desire for unrestricted consumption, barbaric treatment of the environment, and disinclination to contemplate potentially dangerous consequences of our present-day actions. It also includes religious (or ideological) zealotry and the birth rate (on the global scale), which is clearly beyond our abilities to cope with and therefore does not facilitate the survival of civilization in the long run. (The list of our vices also includes a penchant for criminal propensity and a willingness to succumb to the temptations offered by drugs, alcohol, gambling, and so on.) In other words, consciousness and the inner life should be rearranged with an emphasis on the following virtues: tolerance, reasonable consumption, environmental friendliness, high level of morality, peaceful solutions to problems that arise, and moderate reproduction. The strength of every one of these traits differs from stratum to stratum and from individual to individual. It is common knowledge that they can be altered in the psychological makeup of adults, although the process is much easier when the subject is still immature. If we want the necessary traits developed and inculcated, it will be necessary to convince people that this rearrangement of world outlook is a necessity for the survival of their immediate descendants. The majority living in need and overwhelmed by daily cares (frequently hungry and lacking a residence) will accept these changes only with simultaneous efforts to increase their living standards and modernize their economies.

Given that the list of our shortcomings and vices is long, it is necessary to point out that there have been many schools, families, religious groups, and strata with the skills to bring up young people of rectitude and practically without the above-listed negative traits. If people are brought up in this manner in a positive environment, this only enhances the traits inculcated by upbringing. Whenever an adverse genetic makeup, inadequate upbringing, mental abnormalities, or other factors compel an individual to act in a manner unacceptable to society, this individual is ostracized or subjected to cor-

"Nothing will change for the better without a global revolution in the sphere of consciousness, and the catastrophe the world is heading for collapse of civilization becomes inevitable" (Vaclav Havel, president of the Czech Republic, addressing a forum in Washington in 1991).

Chapter 18 243

While in the past education of new generations was targeted primarily to serve the task of ensuring existence of certain states, ethnic or social communities, today the task of ensuring the survival of mankind as a whole is coming to the foreground. In the minds of the next generations the word motherland should be associated with the whole world, not with a particular area or people of a certain nationality7. This can be achieved only through an appropriate system of global education and a different media policy. Mankind can survive only as an integral whole. In the coming epoch the only way to stability lies through radical transformation of the world by means of education and life practices. (see Chapter 3). The problem is that these ideas contradict to the concepts and paradigms of the majority of the states. What needs to be done to switch the attention of the state leaders, to make them focused on the global issue the issue of mankind's preservation?

rectional mechanisms. Unfortunately, our penitentiary establishments are not very efficient and individuals revert to crime even after correctional procedures have been applied. The crime rate is going up, and new kinds of crime crop up with frightening regularity. This does not mean, of course, that this is a problem without a solution. It merely shows how difficult formation of the needed mindset is as a task and how much effort its accomplishment will require.

Civilization has known different systems of education. Asian states practiced intensive education of a select few and demonstrated absolute neglect of the masses millennia ago. In the Europe of several centuries ago, a brilliant cultural upbringing was the prerogative of the privileged classes only, while the masses were left with but a minimum in terms of knowledge. There were the cultural eras now known as the Elizabethan Era, the Renaissance, and the Victorian Era, with its poets and writers. There were the poets and musicians of Germany and constellations of artists of the Italian, Dutch, and Spanish schools. (Restricted to only some classes or strata, all of that did not apply to the populations at large.) Later, younger states like the United States, Australia, and Canada came up with universal schooling, an innovation adopted by practically all of the civilized world since then. We need a reorganization of the systems of upbringing and education and their adaptation to the forthcoming era. As Alice Bailey has said, "the processes of upbringing, properly organized and controlled and systematically planned and infused with ideology, have a powerful effect, particularly when the child is small and has been isolated from other opposed teachings for a long time. The future upbringing may be defined as a science of correct human relations and social organization." Modern Technologies Allow for a Profound Impact on Consciousness

The conclusion to be drawn from the aforesaid is clear: what is needed is organization of upbringing of the young and a rearrangement of the mindset of the rest by talented, forward-looking, devoted pedagogues, propagandists and other specialists8,9. Modern education is "a thoughtless holdover of the past, as it is not based on any perception of the future or on the understanding of what knowledge and skills man needs to survive in the epicenter of changes," American sociologist and futurist Alvin Toffler wrote. The framework of education needs to be converted into a forward-looking self-organizing system, with no more passing down to the next generation an unstable and pathological way of life or outmoded values, knowledge, and skills that bring a global catastrophe closer. The modern-day "developing education" may give way to "forestalling education." The services of the mass media should be enlisted in the effort to maintain a sound spirit for society and produce the best traits of human nature. Fortunately, rapidly progressing technologies make the job easier. The future belongs to long-distance education and swiftly expanding global information networks. Educational globalization
At the risk of attracting sharp criticism by those to who the word "cosmopolitanism" is a curse, I must say that it is becoming increasingly obvious that cosmopolitanism which, as introduced by ancient philosophers, meant citizenship of the world is something we will need for survival. "The division of the world into countries is nothing but a social conventionality... Regardless of the people's feelings and their perception of homeland as something sacred, the truth is that countries are only artificial and temporary structures... In the next hundred years the notion of national belonging will become rudimentary, and all nations and states will recognize a common, global authority. By the end of the 21st century the notion of 'world citizenship' will acquire its proper meaning" (U.S. politician Strobe Talbot, 1992). 8 There is nothing new about the idea that reorganization of society requires rearrangement of the framework of upbringing and education. Trying out such ideas in practice, the Utopian Socialist Robert Owen established schools for workers' children at his factory in England in the early 19th century. He established New Institution for the Formation of Character, which is regarded today as an example of integral and progressive organization of education. The New Institution included an infant school, a nursery for children under 6, a primary school and evening school for working teenagers, and consultations and lyceums for adults. The religion-free curricula were based on exact sciences. Some prominent scientists and pedagogues backed Owen, but this experiment, like his others, was soon suspended. It stands to reason to assume that the "critical mass" of the involved was too small and the time was not yet ripe for so radical a change. 9 Russian philosopher Daniil Andreev wrote on the educational establishments of the future that "I perceive a college coupled with a boarding school, located either in the city environs or in its outskirts, as the principle type of secondary school. It should become something in between a company and a family. No aperture of the military duty waiting for the young people; no arms race or rivalry between two political and economic systems accelerating the pace of life. If a person finishes his or her higher education by the age 30 or so, it will only mean that the person is embarking on the road of life as an individual with all that this conveys, not as a single-function worker."
7

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

244

It is of principal importance to teach people to think comprehensively. "In order to comprehend the problems of the world, it is required to reform the way of thought. Cognition of the world as an integral whole is becoming vitally important... Our knowledge, fractured and scattered over different fields and disciplines, is inadequate to the task of comprehending the realities and problems which are acquiring increasingly global, multidisciplinary, multidimensional and planetary character," quoted from Edgar Morin, French philosopher and sociologist. A comprehensive and integral perception of the world, not just in-depth study of individual sciences, is becoming one of the main tasks of reforming the system of education. This thesis is particularly important now, in an era in which only a broad outlook and appreciation of the state of affairs in the entire world and tendencies of development will enable people to choose the correct path. Withdrawal into the sphere of professional interests or the lives of a few gives birth to tunnel vision that will never see global problems solved. The radical changes taking place in the world, changes effected by rapid technological development and other factors, require new ideas and modes of behavior. Thoroughness, precision, responsibility, and vision are becoming necessary traits for a larger portion of the world population (if not the overwhelming majority). The mass media, coupled with methods of indoctrination, permit reaching the population of the whole world. This opportunity should be used, but its realization will require special effort on the part of the ruling elites and enlightened and well-educated people throughout the world who are aware of the gravity of the situation.

should follow economic. The wealthy countries should be persuaded to raise money and install classrooms equipped with television sets and Internet-connected computer terminals10 in all odd corners of the world (television set and computer will probably be a single unit soon) in order to broadcast educational programs and lessons in the language of the natives. Teachers should be sent there from abroad or locally trained. Targeted educational broadcasts will then need to be organized, and it will be necessary to use all available methods of influencing consciousness and install and support progressive concepts. The existing teaching aids, which are thoroughly prejudiced more often than not, should be abandoned in favor of specially written textbooks published in all languages on history, the world order, the principal laws of the society of the future, and whatever else is needed to build this society. It will be necessary exhibit and disseminate works of art that illustrate the characters and actions society needs. Some technologies described in Chapter 3, Manipulation of Consciousness, may and should be used in pursuit of the noble objective of the formation of a new society. Blockbusters and television series, show-business stars, and public-relations specialists should be put to use. Instead of promoting animosity or advertising products, they should speak up in support of sustainable development projects. Constant feedback will allow for instant assistance to students and selection of the most promising for advanced training. It is up to psychologists, sociologists, pedagogues, writers, and public-relations specialists to chart the curricula and phases of installation of the new planetary mindset. "The general level of society's education is a major prop for democratic institutions11. Lacking sufficient education, people cannot follow democratic debates or participate in them," as Francis Fukuyama observed. Also, "we need a new turn in our policy in the sphere of education and communications. We need to elaborate worldwide programs based on the assumption that the survival of mankind is inseparable from the development of a creative and compassionate planetary consciousness," as Dr. Karan Singh, a Hindu spiritual leader, once said. "Ideas are imbued into public consciousness by means of systematic ideological and propagandistic activities the basic techniques of which are emotional influence, neuroinduction, simplification of ideas and their combination with populist desires," Russian philosopher Vyacheslav Stepin argued.

The United States and its allies, on the one hand, and the Soviet Union, on the other, succeeded in mounting efficient propaganda campaigns in the Cold War, and did so on a global scale. Round-the-clock broadcasts in foreign languages were but one of the weapons with which this war was waged. Moreover, their technical capabilities were incomparably less advanced that they now are. Distance education (combined with full-time classes attending form) may continue throughout an individual's whole life. It is the task of skilled specialists in the social sciences to maintain interest in learning in the public, to stimulate their desire to improve their skills12. This is a must in the new, information-oriented phase of society's development in any case. Interest and attention should be maintained by an undeniable quality of teaching and persistent encouragement, to say nothing of competitiveness, financial incentives, and other factors. In the meantime, all of this should take place against a background of economic reforms and determined efforts to improve the shape backward countries are in (see below). Launching worldwide propaganda campaigns and installing modern intellectual technologies without profound social and political changes will be an exercise in futility. "People expend colossal efforts to explore the outer world, for example, by means of space flight. There are, however, immense vistas of the inner world that have to be studied. This undertaking will be considerably cheaper," from the 14th Dalai Lama. As Mahatma Gandhi said, "if you want to change the world, change yourself." That the mission is definitely possible that of transforming consciousness of a great many people, beginning with the elites is undeniable. Examples from recent past demonstrate that a brief period of 15-20
The number of Internet regular users hit 1.5 billion in 2009. Unlike it was in the primitive (and in certain contemporary) societies where authorities were interested in keeping their people ignorant. 12 "Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe," H.G. Wells said in the early 20th century.
10 11

Chapter 18 245

Russian futurologist Vladimir Tsaplin has expressed the following opinion on this subject:. "fewer then 2-3% of mankind rise to the level of a full-fledged mindset. Their behavior is based on unbiased analysis, rational thinking, creative work, profound altruism, and humanism. The mindset of three-fourths of the population of Earth in the meantime remains primitive, their conduct guided by myths, superstition, stereotypes, and instincts A full-fledged mindset involves analyticity, adequacy, rationality, and rejection of everything supernatural and illogical. The further progressive and harmonious development of civilization necessitates mass action orchestrated by deliberate and rational thinking. By leaving the individual brain of every newborn child to be randomly shaped by fortuitous and irrational phenomena, we doom mankind to a future that is essentially a blind alley. It follows that a full-fledged mindset should be nurtured. Transition to such a fashion of upbringing requires thousands of 'correct' mentors and teachers who will be instrumental in shaping the mindset of the young generation. They may be recruited from among the 2-3% of the intellectuals who are to be found in every country. In practical terms, this whole undertaking is only feasible if and when these people pass on their experience to children in special elementary boarding schools specializing in formation of the basis of a full-fledged mindset (since the traditional system of education is sadly inadequate for the task). At five or six, children leave the elementary establishments
It was recently stated in the media that "the colossal complexity of modern social systems being taken into account, processes of social transformation require communication of an enormous bulk of information and its implanting in target society. Moreover, information should be effectively implanted in social structures and mass consciousness. It should be noted that this aspect of the process of social transformation was totally neglected when the Soviet perestroika and ensuing free market reforms in Russia were planned." 14 See, for example, http://www.old.savefuture.ru/other_articles.htm, the essay "40 Years of the First Student Body of the Novosibirsk Institute of Physics and Technology."
13

years may be sufficient for altering the mentality of huge masses of people, populations of whole countries. Ideological and religious shifts or similar changes may even require mere months in the case of some individuals. The duration is mostly determined by the individual's psychological makeup and the missionaries' skills and the sophistication of propaganda techniques today. An energetic worldwide campaign is needed against the numerous Internet websites (as well as printed and other material) that foster feelings of hatred and incite ethnic or religious intolerance. The campaign should strive to nullify their influence. Winning people over and having them understand their true interests depends, in the long run, on how keen and pervasive the propaganda is13. "The new humanism should be revolutionary in nature. It should replace principles and norms that appear inviolable now. It should facilitate the generation of new spiritual, philosophical, ethical, social, aesthetic, and creative values and motives that measure up to the dictates of the time," Aurelio Peccei wrote. In their book The Consciousness Revolution, Ervin Laszlo, Stanislav Grof and Peter Russell raised the following important questions: Can we set up a system that will enable us to be benign and gallant, indulgent and credulous, but realists at the same time wise and generous instead of egotistical? Can we remove violence and savagery from our movies, books, thoughts, and aspirations? Instead of bans and restrictions, our struggle for culture should be centered on modification of consciousness and development of compelling software, television, and other programs. E-learning stipulates regular contacts with a teacher and interaction with software designed to keep track of the acquired knowledge on a regular basis. The leading universities, business schools, and similar establishments have been putting e-learning programs up on the Internet for years. These programs, teachers, and films make visual information alive and dynamic, and the accompanying audio enhances the effect. Making elearning individual-oriented is much easier than learning using textbooks or in groups. Reference books and other sources are easily available. Long-distance interaction between learners poses no problems either. The programs we are talking about will take years if the desired results are to be attained and developed; hence, the importance we attach to personnel selection and training in various countries of the world. The establishment of schools training specialists in consciousness transformation, sustainable development, and accompanying public-relations should begin without delay. Teachers and students should be handpicked and boarding schools set up where expert pedagogues will set out to form a new mindset different from the current one. They will impart their own mindset and world outlook to students, which will set our future development on the correct path. The situation in which teaching, from elementary schools on up, is one of the least-paid and small-time professions, as it is in Russia and many other countries, must be changed. (See the section Education in Chapter 3.) Special departments should be established within establishments of higher education, refresher courses for tutors, and so on. The experience of the Soviet schools of physics and mathematics for particularly promising teenagers in Moscow, Novosibirsk, and other cities and that of MIT, the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, and other universities and colleges will be useful, because their graduates are specialists who can easily maneuver in a rapidly changing world14. The involvement of talented people in dealing with social and humanitarian problems is of undeniable importance because it is the gap between the physical sciences and "human studies" that is at the root of the present-day difficulties. It is the next generation and its descendants that will run the risk of encountering formidable dangers and, fortunately, stand a good chance of averting them.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

246

for high boarding schools promoting similar principles in matters of mindset and education." Tsaplin also maintains that "the surplus powers of the mind have doomed mankind to self-education and gradual maturity, which have lasted for millennia It does not necessarily occur to us that the behavior, deeds, and accomplishments of our progenitors corresponded to the period of mankind's childhood." "We should nurture personalities and individualities. They do not number in the millions, but what of it? Let them number several thousand, several thousands of fighters for supreme social ideals, a cohort of people dedicated to a higher collective code of ethics, of people prepared to sacrifice themselves for the sake of mankind. These people may sweep millions along with them," the writer and philosopher Alexander Zinovyev once noted15. "Without doubt it is possible to achieve a deep transformation of consciousness on the personal level and such transformation will definitely boost our chances for survival provided that it is implemented on a massive scale," Stanislav Grof wrote.

Basic Aspects of Consciousness Transformation Tolerance should come to replace aggressiveness and xenophobia. "Either man will put an end to war, or war will put an end to man," John F. Kennedy said. Propaganda can and should facilitate mutual understanding, tolerance, pluralism, reconciliation, and solidarity among people, within ethnic enclaves, and among nations and dialogue and cooperation between cultures. Schools and the whole process of upbringing should concentrate on mending public consciousness and uprooting brutality, bellicosity, intolerance, and bigotry. Other traits should be nurtured in the process, necessary ones like capacity for work, perseverance, a strong will, boldness in the search for the new, and even a critical attitude with regard to maxims. As I wrote in Chapter 5, the task of mankind is to achieve such a level in quality of life, mutual relations and consciousness where a war or any kind of fighting is unacceptable for all and where the nonviolent principles put forth by Mahatma Gandhi and Leo Tolstoy would become common guidance.

"Is a nonkilling society possible?" is the subject of special interest of the American Professor Emeritus of Political Science Glenn Paige, one he has dedicated years of studies to. He writes in one of his works that "the best creative facilities lend themselves to the art of killing. Nonviolent alternatives require a creative potential of equal potency. All sciences, representatives of all professions, every one of us should be conditioned to reject killing. We need leaders and followers who reject violence It is necessary to concentrate on purposeful interference with the sources of violence with a view to putting an end to their activities. It is necessary to set up mechanisms of acknowledgment of responsibility for atrocities and arrange for preventive structural changes that will pave the way for appearance of nonviolent societies A nonviolent solution to problems means rejection of killing and, also importantly, constructive efforts aimed at obviation of the basic needs." Paige points out that, throughout a major part of history, only 1-2% of human beings killed other human beings. Seventy-five countries or so have abolished capital punishment, thirty do not have regular armies, and about fifty acknowledge the right of citizens to refuse conscription. Paige also writes that "our traditions taught us that we must kill to be free, equal, and protected; our present is teaching us that, unless we abandon killing, freedom and equality will be in jeopardy, and survival itself problematic."16. Paige promotes reorientation of power structures, political parties, educational institutions, etc. (state and social institutions, in other words) to nonviolent procedures and objectives. It was already mentioned above that the basis may and should be provided by the reorganized systems of education, propaganda, media outlets' style and general disposition, and so on. Paige bitterly comments that "political models that accept violence and discourage ideas of nonviolence, dismissing them as 'utopian,' 'idealistic,' and 'unrealistic,' are therefore doomed to violence." Referring to certain traits of our mindset that cause conflicts and wars, some psychologists even suggest the use of new informational means and technologies in a computer-generated simulation of a World War. They suggest a simulation, as realistic as possible, of battles and mass casualties (virtual, of course) down to the individual fate of every participant along with
15 A great deal of the questions the world is now discussing in connection with the problems of the future were actually formulated by various schools of thought of the past ancient philosophy, religion, Utopian socialism, etc. Esoteric writers, who are quite popular today, formulate "the main questions of our existence" as "What is man? What is the physical universe (cosmos) he lives in? How can the impending crisis be avoided? What is the best society for man's progressive self-evolution?" This author does not agree with its gurus in everything (for example, they insist on the existence of some higher world and imply the possibility of "transfer of knowledge from the higher world to the lower one") but he certainly applauds and welcomes the energy with which they contribute to development of a new mindset, establish special schools and participate in other actions. These leader's theses concerning the importance of inner evolution, transformation of consciousness and the "necessity to take the next step in mental development" are indisputable as well. "It is necessary to impart to man the knowledge of fundamental laws of creation and set the standards of behavior in accordance with which he will evolve in peace and harmony" (Education in the New Age, Alice Bailey, 1954). She also states that "man should learn patience, daringly and enthusiastically joining in the process of construction of a new civilization. Reasonable and cooperation-oriented public opinion must be formed in all countries. If people of good will are truly active, the results will be achieved inside of 25 years" (! Evgeny Abramyan). 16 "Although the abolition of war has been the dream of man for centuries every proposition to that end has been promptly discarded as impossible and fantastic. But that was before the science of the past decade made mass destruction a reality It is no longer an ethical equation to be pondered solely by learned philosophers and ecclesiastics but a hard-core one for the decision of the masses whose survival is the issue. We are in a new era. The old methods and solutions no longer suffice. We must have new thoughts, new ideas, new conceptsWe must break out of the straitjacket of the past" (U.S. General Douglas MacArthur, speech before the American Legion, January 26, 1955).

Chapter 18 247

the sufferings of their families. Such a lesson may have a profound effect on the mindset, a kind of vaccination such as we discussed in Chapter 1.

Religion and ideology play a fundamental part in consciousness and behavior. Mankind cannot get by without them being restructured, without reconciliation and the abolition of zealotry. "Doctrines do no matter. The spirit of religion that manifests itself in love, solidarity, and compassion does," as the Dalai Lama says. Faith has always been a disciplinary factor, something that facilitates a solid existence for societies and implants codes of ethics. If it slips into fundamentalism, however, the church will find "good reasons" for religious persecution, wars, torture, and executions. Discounting these extremes, the majority of large religions, embracing more than half of the global population, are centered on postulates that bear a strong resemblance to one another. Discord between religions is usually rooted in the venial interests of hierarchies or elites that manipulate the faithful to their own ends. We see how rituals or phrases (provisions) that are fairly unimportant in everyday life split the world into antagonistic groups of countries (and even civilizations), with far-reaching and frequently dreadful consequences. Media outlets should undergo a thorough renovation and focus their efforts on explanation and propaganda of objective truths17. "There will be peace only to the extent that mankind as a whole rediscovers its fundamental calling to be one family, a family in which the dignity and rights of the individuals whatever their status, race or religion are accepted as prior and superior to any kind of difference or distinction" (Message of His Holiness Pope John Paul II for the celebration of the World Day of Peace, January 2000). "Human beings must respect one other, in all their diversity of belief, culture and language. Differences within and between societies should be neither feared nor repressed, but cherished as a precious asset of mankind" (United Nations Millennium Declaration, 2000)18. Religions experience difficulties with the compatibility between their ideas and the ever-expanding scientific picture of the world beginning with the fundamental questions of the origin of the world, human species, the time that elapsed from the start of evolution and the nature of evolution. If they had concentrated on promotion of peacefulness, rectitude, tolerance, and other traits necessary for the survival of the world, religious postulates could be playing a more important role even now. The religious thesis that man should dedicate this life to preparation for a transition to some other world, to salvation and eternal life beyond (as an antithesis to the theses of atheistic humanism promising freedom and happiness in this world) is questionable as well. The knot of contradictions and clashes between religions has more than once drawn states and their armies into a vortex of violence. Man "has developed his reason to the point where he is solving the riddles of nature. But when he is at the threshold of a new world, he has succumbed to the power of the very things and organizations he has created I believe that the only force that can save us from self-destruction is reason; the capacity to penetrate to the reality veiled by the layers and layers of deception and ideologies," as Erich Fromm wrote in his Credo of 1962. "Ideology and religion exist for people, not the other way around. Ideology and religion are secondary. We must understand that mankind is primary," the Dalai Lama stressed. Considering the similarity of the contents of most religions and the chance to do away with contradictions they offer, one would think the idea of a unified religion logical. Protestants are particularly ardent promoters of the unification of churches. "We may be in need of a synthetic religion, a Newest Testament that will agree with the needs of global development. The canons of all religions should be revised," Russian ecologist Nikolai Reimers maintained. Awakening to the dangers their flock is facing should have its effect on clerics and impel them to take action to pacify their congregations and remove artificially invented and played-upon controversies19. Realistically thinking materialists do not need religions; neither do they feel the necessity to shroud various aspects of life in myths. Already today, such people constitute a large portion of mankind. The problem to a
17

In France, the Muslim community numbers nearly 6 million people and includes 1,200 imams performing rites. The government of France has organized secular training courses where French legislation, history, and culture are taught. Other European governments are promoting "moderate Islam" as well. All these campaigns have brought down the number of the mosques known as odious throughout the continent. On the other hand, they do not seem to be much help in stabilization of the situation within diasporas. 18 Reconciliation between religions and the role of the Church in the general peace process were discussed during the funeral of Pope John Paul II in the Vatican. "People of different religions, cultures and nationalities assembled. Practically all political leaders came. They united to say how they appreciate and respect the role John Paul played in establishment of peace and solidarity between peoples. This is what the Church is supposed to be doing. If it can act as a go-between in reconciliation of people, not only the believers but people in general, then it is truly playing the part it is supposed to be playing. Modification of believers' mindset and disposal of hatred and confrontation has become one of the priorities of propaganda." (Radio Liberty). 19 The following is an excerpt from what Francis Fukuyama wrote in 2007 regarding the present-day role and place of religion: "A most surprising thing occurred in the 21st century. People expected modernization to be of a secular nature and that it would lead to a general atheization of the world. Instead, things have taken quite an opposite course. Religion is being revived and is back in numerous placed throughout the world; it is becoming a new power attracting people. It appears to me that this indicates that the idea of modernism, the idea of enlightenment, has a defect in the moral domain, a vacuum, which cannot be filled by contemporary society."

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

248

Russian ecologist and evolutionist Vsevolod Zubakov suggests that "upon coming of age, every citizen of Planet Earth must pass initiation rites and give a pledge never to undertake anything that may harm the biosphere or other people. The citizen will be responsible for observance of the taboo always thereafter. Environmental general education should precede and prepare a procedure for acknowledgment of a young individual as a worthy citizen of Planet Earth."

Exactly what morals will turn out to be adequate for the near future is hard to say, but mankind has been altering its morality from one era to another throughout its history. Mankind has been upgrading and adapting it to new conditions and it has survived!21. As Friedrich von Hayek said, human society may avert the threat of selfdestruction only through readiness to work out a new global morality. Men of the arts need a constructive way of thinking to help society raise the matters of the future, and the cultural dimension should prevail over immature political decisions. "Egotism, lying, lechery, and so forth have attained a global magnitude Mankind is at a junction. If it chooses the currently predominant framework of ethics based on the idea of consumption, it will keep traveling down the path of devastation of its own physical and moral habitat, which sooner or later will bring about its doom," as Rector of the Moscow State University, Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Viktor Sadovnichiy pointed out. As interaction between people from different states and regions and with different outlooks gains in intensity, reconciliation and integration of notions of different civilizations is going to be a difficult undertaking, to say the least: trying to reconcile Anglo-Saxon pragmatism and individualism, Islamic monotheism and fanaticism, Hindu and Buddhist transcendentalism, the flavor of Russian mindset and that of South Americans, the mysticism of Africa, and so on. "A person should always remember that his actions and views have a direct and indirect influence on others and sooner or later on himself A worthy, self-organizing society will only last when every person acts as though he, within the framework of his or her activities, is responsible for everyone," as Physicist Hermann Haken said. It have already mentioned that most people choose to worry about their daily problems instead of thinking in terms of the far-reaching consequences of existing tendencies. One of the peculiarities of our consciousness is to forget, or almost forget, the facts and circumstances that happened decades ago. It is also typical of how people think about the past, but doubly so regarding thinking of what may yet come to pass. It is no surprise that people are so passive in their recognition and neutralization of future threats. It is therefore up to politicians, leaders of society, scientists, and intellectuals to explain the existing state of affairs, direct the mindset into the necessary channels, and orchestrate efforts to ensure future security. The development of farsightedness is therefore a task of paramount importance. People are sufficiently intelligent to recognize the existence of a connection between their actions today and the potential consequences. Granted, this is immeasurably more difficult now than it was a couple of centuries ago, as the pace of change is not what it was, the ramifications of scientific and technological innovations are not as easy to grasp, and forces of an incomparably greater potential are involved. Self-preservation has always been one of human beings' central ideas, and maintaining a sustainable existence is not becoming any easier in terms of the effort that has to be expended22. As the writer Fazil Iskander said, "man has two minds a technological one and an ethical one. The technological mind has developed enormously. Any school graduate knows a million times more about this world than Socrates did. At the same time, a modern-day philosopher may find it hard to comprehend the ethical issues Socrates studied."23

Moral principles, rectitude, liberal traditions, and individual freedom apparently require certain corrections as well, first and foremost, because of the individual's now grossly enhanced powers to affect the lives of thousands and millions with his or her actions. Mankind needs a new system of ethics stipulating every individual's responsibility for the development of civilization. Sustainable development is only possible in a wholly new society20.

certain extent is rooted in the difficulty of "shaking metaphysical convictions because they command the power to lock dissonant information out," as Stanislaw Lem puts it. In order to explain certain natural phenomena, such as the origin of the Universe, the origin of life and evolution, etc., which cannot be adequately explained by modern science, the notion of Supreme Intelligence is sometimes employed as a substitute of God.

Equality of ethnicities is another thesis that must be implanted in consciousness to become an element of new mindset. To begin with, people should grasp the idea that the notion of ethnic origin is essentially a convention. Hundreds and thousands years of migration have shuffled the genes so thoroughly that the ancestry of very many people, albeit unknown to themselves, may be traced to various peoples. On the one hand, our distant ancestors split into tribes, peoples, and races that occupied different territories. On the other, the genetic

"Man established certain taboos and passed laws throughout history, moral principles affecting the very nature of historical processes appeared in society. This did not make the development of mankind controllable, but it did direct it somewhat, as though keeping the river of development within certain banks," Nikita Moiseev wrote. 21 Do not forget the societies that failed to do so and crumpled under the impact of inner controversies or external forces they could withstand. 22 "If only I had known, I would have become a watchmaker," Albert Einstein said when commenting on the bombing of Hiroshima. "I have always condemned the use of the atomic bomb against Japan" he said in 1953 and admitted that thwarting that "fatal decision" was beyond him. 23 The late philosopher Alexander Zinovyev was even less compromising on the subject: "civilized, kind, romantic and nonegotistical man no longer exists. Egotistical, Spartan and fiercely savage, a modern barbarian covered head to foot with hi-tech equipment, defeated him in a vicious battle where no quarter was given or expected. We have to begin from scratch begin with formation of a new man."
20

Chapter 18 249

pool is certainly intermingled for many reasons. The notion of "purity of blood" is ephemeral. Moreover, when residents of distant territories (genetic branches independent of each other) interbreed, their alliances usually produce healthier and more capable descendants. Groups the members of which never deny one another active support and assistance are no longer established along ethnic lines. Today, it is possible to belong to a group of patriots (of townships and areas), sports clubs, or fans of some band or other. Ideally, collisions over preferences and debates are not supposed to deteriorate into extremes or foment hatred and violence. Education and propaganda should concentrate on promotion of nonviolent relations and tolerance24. The Humanist Manifesto 2000 specifically warns against placing an emphasis on ethnic and cultural particularities that may foster alienation and be essentially destructive. Cultural differences should be tolerated unless the cultures themselves are intolerant and aggressive. The time has come to abandon clannishness and discover a moral basis common for all. Ethnic groups are a product of the former social and geographic isolation, which is certainly a thing of the past in the international community, a community in which heterogeneous marriages are actually a necessity and should be encouraged as such. Implantation of new postulates is bound to encounter, according to Vladimir Tsaplin, "resistance from nationalist and religious circles. There is nothing unusual about this, because a novel step in circumstances such as these always looks like an outrageous heresy and infringement on stability. Sooner or later, however, mass consciousness makes the leap and understands that what is suggested constitutes the only chance for mankind to make the move from the phase of a fork between myths and knowledge to the phase of integral, harmonious, and dynamic development." Restriction of consumption. The desire for ever-increasing consumption is one of the primary urges. The desire to possess is a basic instinct, and in the case of some it knows no limits. Moreover, much information imparted by the media implies that making money and leading a well-off (or affluent) existence is all that really counts. This generates the illusion that having a lot of money will automatically solve all problems: "the objectives a substantial part of mankind is aspiring for are of a hedonistic consumption nature" (Stanislaw Lem); "as long as everybody wants to have more in global terms, there must be international war" (Erich Fromm). Selfimposed restriction, a dramatic change in consciousness, needs a stimulus, a pressure applied by an emergency (which the world appears to be experiencing) and energetic propaganda. "The capitalist doctrine of permissiveness is based on the assumption that uninhibited promotion of one's own interests benefits everyone the best. Unless this permissiveness is restricted by acknowledgment of the fact that common interests should prevail over individual ones, our present-day system is subject to destruction" (George Soros). The number of people with private assets in excess of $1 million is over 10 million. Almost one thousand billionaires boast of a combined wealth of several trillions of dollars. Hundreds of millions of people worldwide can afford to spend $50-100 or more a day. The environmental impact and consumption rate of an average American or citizen of any other advanced state is dozens of times that of an average citizen of a developing country. According to available estimates, 10% of the world's population consumes about three-quarters of the planet's recovered resources. The "Society of Consumers" is almost fully confident that this state of affairs the gap between the wealthy and the poor should and must be preserved. Companies obsessed with output growth without a thought to environmental pollution deliberately encourage wasteful consumption25. The vast majority of people in the developed world are obsessed with so-called "demonstrative consumption" the desire to keep up in terms of consumption with their friends, acquaintances or even the characters of various television shows. "Emotional purchases," in which an individual gets pleasure out of shopping, are not uncommon (psychologists say that this happens when the parencephalon, that is, the right cerebral hemisphere, which is in charge of the artistic and creative drives, takes over). "An accent is needed on sufficiency and quality of life, which requires maturity and wisdom from mankind" as it was put in The Limits to Growth, by Donella H. Meadows, et al. "A limited scope of values and lifestyles is inculcated into the consumers' consciousness in line with the widely promoted, sometimes globally advertised, brands. Many renovate their wardrobes or change their cars not in order to replace the no longer usable items but out of the ephemeral desire to stay in and to be fashionable as glossy magazines and ubiquitous ads demand them to be," quoted from No Logo: Taking Aim at the Brand Bullies (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Logo), a book by Canadian journalist Naomi Klein, first published in January 2000). If, hypothetically, the vast majority of the Earth's inhabitants somehow managed to rise up to the level of consumption typical of the wealthiest countries of the world today, the planet would not be able to sustain such a load.
24 American writer Arthur Miller surmised that the man's mystery probably lies precisely in his being webbed up in numerous clan and racial prejudices which can, when the moment comes, set reason at defiance and acquire the strength that can destroy the world. Bertrand Russell, for his part, maintained that a cure for that lied not in a heroic decisiveness, but in efforts by individual people to develop a more reasonable and balanced viewpoint on our relations with the others and the world. 25 For example, sets of dozens of suits and hundreds of pairs of shoes, three to five or more homes, several cars, yachts, and jets and clothes worth millions. "We want more and more in terms of money, power, status, or fame. This is a model of permanent gluttony that has nothing to do with individual accomplishments, coupled with a general loss of point, values and perspectives" (Stanislav Grof).

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

250

Depletion of resources and contamination of environment may be restricted by several different means at once the restriction of excessive individual consumption; decrease in population; expansion of frontiers, that is, exploration of outer space; and, of course, by advancement of energy-efficient and other technologies that allow for low-energy production and environmental conservation (see Project III. Technology). "Homo sapience stands for moderation" should become one of the postulates of the new consciousness. Ervin Laszlo stated this well: "We of the West live amidst an aggressive and competitive culture. That the material standard of life equals quality is a false premise. One may lead a simple way of life of unquestionable quality or live expansively, boastfully, and for effect. We make a choice as to way of life, and this includes everything from the choice of occupation and furniture to the choice of friends Should the citizens of China emulate what they believe are Western values, they will certainly start making the mistakes we've already made. Exporting into the developing countries our system of values and way of life in their present-day form constitutes a formula of global suicide A revolution of consciousness is already under way in our part of the world. The question is, is it rapid enough?" A flash of insight does illuminate the blind alley every once in a while, and timid attempts are made to modify the mindsets of the advanced countries. The television program Affluenza appeared in the United States in 1998 on a pandemic of consumption jeopardizing the world, followed by the book Affluenza. The All-Consuming Epidemic by John de Graaf, David Wann, and Thomas H. Naylor in 2003. The authors promote reasonable consumption and explain the dangers the world is facing. "The mass consciousness is gradually coming to understand that we are unviable as a system, unviable is our consciousness which determines our attitude toward the world," quoted from Ervin Laszlo, Stanislav Grof and Peter Russell, The Consciousness Revolution. Even legislative measures may be used to facilitate a solution progressive charge for consumption above and beyond the established quotas, a progressive charge for the use of the biosphere, and so on26. The orientation of the media is important as well. It is media outlets, after all, that tell the audience who it is that commands respect in society, it is media outlets that set examples for millions and billions (as do characters in soap operas). It is also possible to make use of religious postulates that call for moderation in all things (even though not every ecclesiastic is exactly an example himself). Many celebrities have embraced Buddhism, another nuance that may be useful if played upon skillfully. Charity has a major role in the world's wealthy countries: private funding of medical research and other studies, support of educational institutions, and grants for specialists and promising young people. Citizens of the United States alone raise almost $250 billion for charity every year. (This is, however, several times less than the national military spending, or about 2% of GDP; in Russia, the corresponding figures are approximately 15 billion rubles and 0.02% of GDP). Feelings of satisfaction, an awareness of high status, and knowledge that the money given will benefit one's country and mankind in general should increase this activity27. The use of advanced countries' experience and technologies has permitted some recently backward countries to make a transition to the industrial and information phase of development much more rapidly than the countries of the West themselves had done in centuries past. It may prove a salvation for mankind if the vast developing world never tarries in a phase of excessive consumption and makes a jump into the phase of "rational sufficiency." In other words, it should satisfy a normal amount of wants material, spiritual, and otherwise but not excessive consumption. Ideally, it would be expedient to achieve, in the near future, radical transformations in both consciousness and consumption in the rich countries too; this would help to narrow the gap between the quality of life in different countries and their environmental impact28. Today, some politicians in the so-called Golden Billion show a tendency toward keep the rest of the world industrially primitive so as to use it as a source of cheap mineral resources and, to a certain extent, as a dump for hazardous wastes. This policy, or even mindset, is an extension of the previous phases of history ruled by the sword. Colonialism, exportation of slaves by the million, and exploitation of foreign countries were the way of life for millennia on end. These relics of the past mindset need to be finally abandoned if the world is to survive. What was the norm in the past is no longer acceptable. This is precisely what the new planetary mindset is about. When dismantling of the old patterns of thinking is discussed, it is mindset of the wealthy and the powers-thatbe that is meant. The assumption that some countries are so advanced now that they are capable of summarily dealing with those that have fallen behind is definitely erroneous. The terrorist war and its development and the proliferation of
New carrier vehicles may be designed and developed as well something more compact and energy-conserving. For example, Bill Gates and his wife donated almost $30 billion to charity and it was announced that Bill Gates would work almost entirely with charity. Warren Buffett, formerly one of the wealthiest persons in the world, donated approximately $30 billion (a major part of his fortune) to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The Moores donated $7.3 billion to charity, and George Soros $5.2 billion. Imagine what the world would be like now had hundreds of billionaires and thousands of millionaires become active benefactors as well. They would have made a great source of project budgeting. In the long run, this is investment in one's own descendants. 28 All of that bears a resemblance to the future dreamed of by communists and thinkers of certain Utopian schools. However, some of what they promoted was quite reasonable and may even be implemented at some phase of development. It is clear, after all, that the spectrum of possible futures is not that broad peace and public well-being, or stratification, confrontations and wars.
26 27

Chapter 18 251

weapons of mass destruction should have taught us differently. The wealthy countries and their populations are surrounded by the resentful and seething hordes of the famished, illiterate, and unemployed. Also, it is necessary to add that these hordes are capable of taking action that poses a deadly menace to the world. Shielding this world off from the latest technological advances is impossible for any significant length of time. The ability to raise fundamentalists (shahids), augmented by a dense population and a high birth rate, compound to make it an extremely dangerous enemy in the ongoing confrontation. Family planning programs. The birth rate has been always determined by traditions (religion and mindset) as well as material considerations the need to have helpers for doing work, support in one's old age, and so on. Population growth has also been promoted by advances in the sphere of medicine a drop in child mortality and an increase in longevity. The propaganda and state-sponsored measures taken in China and India to limit the birthrate have produced only relatively minor effects. Qualitative changes in child-bearing took place in the advanced countries in the last century, and, as it turned out, higher living standards and a higher level of civilization have a negative effect on the birth rate. Age-old traditions changed. Women in the advanced countries work on their careers, enjoy large pensions, and have expanded horizons and interests. The number of marriages has dropped. The birthrate in Sweden, France, Germany, and some other countries is down to 1.2-1.3 children per woman (when the ratio should be 2.2-2.3 if the population size is to be stable). The local population is aging and dying out, while the birth rate among immigrants remains high, and which is another problem. Improvement of living standards in the economically backward countries does therefore offer a hope of solution. Work on economic renewal may resolve the demographic crisis. On the other hand, it is impossible to calculate in advance the pace of the parallel processes a high birth rate spurred on by traditions and its reduction caused by the new circumstances. In fact, a noticeable reduction of the population worldwide may require several generations. To survive this period, the nuances and phases of which cannot be foreseen in detail, it is required to vigorously perform work directed at altering consciousness and traditional mentality in the countries with high birth rate. Every propagandistic method discussed here, everything necessary should be used. Fortunately, science is still looking for better contraceptives. As the problem of fertility has been brought up, it is appropriate to mention some other changes in modern sophisticated society: the importance of the institution of marriage is crumbling, and the stability (sanctity) of the family as a social unit is not what it once was. Society and the state may find themselves saddled with bringing up new generations, with taking care of children to an ever-increasing extent29. The role of women in social and political life is too little. Their ever-secondary position (by a good margin) is a tribute to a mindset shaped by the millennia-long development of civilization. "Nonuniform distribution of power, resources, and duties between the sexes is rooted in ancient traditions and laws," as the British Professor Paul Kelly put it. Physique was at one time a decisive factor that allowed men to take leading positions. Children and the necessity to care of them (a time-consuming undertaking in itself, and reserved solely for women) were another reason. The world is different today, and women occupy the commanding heights more and more often. Bringing up a child or two requires less effort than before. Household appliances have decreased the relative expense in terms of labor and time and extended the average lifespan. Mass consciousness should be amended to grant women a more active part in management, outlook and policy formation, and decisionmaking in matters of importance. Women's liberation theory and gender philosophy-based political movements for women's rights have figured significantly for the past two centuries. Being less aggressive by nature, women can, and should, contribute to the formation of a peaceful global mindset30. Much of what has been said here regarding modifying consciousness has been stated before in a number of recent documents. "The Earth Charter" (1999) promotes the following principles:
"Uphold the rights of all Eliminate discrimination in all its forms, such as that based on race, color, sex, sexual orientation, religion, language, or national, ethnic, or social origin. Enhance the role of the mass media in raising awareness of ecological and social challenges. Affirm the right of indigenous peoples to their spirituality, knowledge, lands, and resources and to their related practice of sustainable livelihoods.

29 Granted that this smacks of the ideas of upbringing were promoted in the Russian revolution in the early 20th century, there is something to this that may be useful under different circumstances and with more adequate implementation. Some situations described and discussed here bring to mind the proverb that all the future exists in the past. 30 There have been more categorical positions on this matter:. "Males rebelled and toppled matriarchy, the women who ruled the world, and the rebellion became a fundamental phase in society formation. Attempts to demean women and restrict them in all things have never ceased since. What do all Islamic fundamentalists begin with upon coming to power? They begin with Sharia law, social and sexual enslavement of women. To make them wear sacks, to begin with. If this is a success, proceed with a radical program of mangling their genitalia and depriving them of sensuality. Similar tendencies are even glimpsed in the Hebrew-Christian tradition. On the other hand, Christian Europe through a series of sexual revolutions. It removed its Catholic ayatollahs and partially restored woman to the pedestal that was hers at the dawn of history" ("Long Live Number One Satan!" by Andrey Piontkovsky, 2006).

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

252

Recognize that the world is a wholeness created by correct relationships with oneself, other persons, other cultures, and other lives. Make the knowledge, values, and skills needed for just and sustainable communities an integral part of formal education and lifelong learning for all."

*** It is not difficult to see, therefore, that transformation of consciousness and inculcation of a new mindset are essential for all layers of society. The elite, the Golden Billion, need to learn to restrict consumption and curb their ambitions. They should concentrate on greater charity, become peace-oriented (life without armed conflicts), and turn to spiritual values. The poor, for their part, should aspire for education (which should be made available to everyone in the first place), a higher cultural level, and less procreation (because something has to be done about the birth rate). Tolerance and the suppression of aggressiveness and national and religious prejudices should become the core of a new mindset of all mankind31. Concluding this section, let's sum up what is the essence of Project I. Consciousness: Transformation of consciousness and mindset, modification of patterns of behavior established historically but no longer acceptable in the world as it is. Global (or at least applied to a larger portion of the population) upbringing, propaganda, and education aiming to inculcate tolerance, peacefulness, and equal rights; to obviate aggressiveness, ethnic, and religious hatred; and to restrict consumption and procreation. II. Disarmament The desire to be well-armed arose at the dawn of human evolution to be able to hunt and defend oneself or, not infrequently, to raid neighbors. Even today, the maintenance of a battle-ready army and arsenals that are as sophisticated as national resources permit remains one of the prime objectives for many countries. The population and the international community are reassured again and again that this is done for the purposes of self-defense, but militarization itself enhances the risk of conflicts. Wealthy states aspire to have sophisticated weapons, including weapons of mass destruction (as do states that are poor but aggressive). The world tottered on the brink of their being used more than once in the 20th century, actually crossing into the red zone in some episodes. Billions and billions of dollars worth of merchandise are sold and bought throughout the world every year, this being a considerable stimulus for the sellers to keep up (or even expand) production of military hardware. General Considerations Regarding Disarmament It is clear now that the authorities of the world powers in the 20th century failed to grasp the idea that a buildup of weapons of mass destruction and plans to use them are but a cul-de-sac leading to selfannihilation. Cause and effect changed places at times: it was not political considerations that demanded ever-increasing production of weapons, it was policy that was tailored to the interests of weapons designers and makers or a military eager to strengthen its position. That considerably smaller arsenals would have sufficed as a deterrent is recognized now. Colossal funds were consequently spent in an effort to stock up horrendously expensive and essentially unnecessary hardware. Not only are all these weapons useless, dismantling them is not easy at all. It takes money, special technologies, and years of dedicated effort. Security is needed, as are waste-burial sites and transportation (made difficult by safety regulations and security considerations), and there is always the risk of leaking to be considered. This applies equally to nuclear weapons and means of chemical and germ warfare. For a long time, it was
31 Some of the suggestions and ideas described in Project I. Consciousness have been proposed before more than once. Here I follow the principles that the report of the Club of Rome "First Global Revolution" (1990) is based on: Involvement and participation of everyone in dealing with the myriad of problems the world is facing; That the capacity for constructive changes in the world is rooted in the motives and values that shape behavioral patterns; Thousands of minor but rational decisions reflecting the new level of consciousness of the masses. This footnote and others plainly show that the author did not have to invent anything new. It was only necessary to analyze and codify what had been said and done over the past 50 years and the tendencies of development the same period displayed, as well as to use the imagination to figure out what may happen now, as well as to advance an idea or two on what is to be done to ensure survival and transformation of life on Earth into something more prosperous and stable. Many of the proposals discussed in this chapter have long since been promulgated by the world religions and thinkers, including prohibition of murder, anger, envy, theft, doing to others what one does not wish having done to himself, etc.

Chapter 18 253

commonly believed that a country with nuclear weapons would be able to resolve any conflict to its own benefit with the threat to use them or with their actual use. By the end of the 20th century the destructive capacity of the accumulated weapons reached a level such that they could not be employed without the risk of fomenting a global conflict and, eventually, a global catastrophe. Indeed, a "moderate" nuclear conflict may unexpectedly escalate into an exchange of strike involving almost all of the available arsenals and until a complete devastation of the planet. Even the threat to employ weapons of mass destruction against states that do not possess them is losing its potency particularly against states that train shahids en masse and make preparations for a terrorist war on a large scale. There is also the possibility that some countries and groups may lay their hands on dangerous technologies one day. The use of "dirty bombs," agents, and germs is technically a possibility as well today. Given sufficient determination and favorable circumstances, even a "standard" nuclear weapon may be stolen or assembled. Disarmament is about diminishing toward zero the factor of military strength in international relations. Mankind is gradually coming to terms with the idea that the respect a country commands and the prosperity of its population do not depend on military might as such. They depend on its economic and social accomplishments, command of advanced peaceful technologies, and cultural level. The processes of globalization, ever-increasing transparency of borders, and freedom of travel work against military confrontation and conflict. Many a state with no natural resources of their own to speak of has set an example of advances in living standards, owing this exclusively to properly organized national economies, rational policy, and a new mindset. "Every gun that is fired, every warship launched signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. The world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children Under the cloud of threatening war, it is mankind hanging from a cross of iron" (President of the United States Dwight D. Eisenhower's "The Chance for Peace" address, delivered before the American Society of Newspaper Editors on April 16, 1953). (This was not the only incident of such statements being made by a professional military). The heads of the world powers should admit that the arms race after World War II was a mistake. First, this morbid competition in design and production of weapons endangered all of civilization. Second, the wasted funds and efforts would have sufficed to elevate living standards in dozens of developing countries32. And, finally, a number of terrorist organizations that plague the world today were formed (and frequently trained and armed as well) in the Cold War confrontation. Repentance for the mistakes of the past will provide a reasonably good framework for the combined work to preserve civilization. It will not hurt to admit that the so called war of ideologies was in fact "a war for global leadership, for the ability of a group of individuals or countries to rule others," as I wrote in Chapter 133. The previous Pope set an example of penitence for the past sins of the Roman Catholic Church (see Footnote 9 in Chapter 8). Mankind should do so as well, and do it now. The pace of life is accelerating, and we do not have much time to recognize mistakes of the past for what they really were. The force of inertia and the old dogmas in the mindset of the international community determines the behavior of most countries today. Work on new weapons and their proliferation continues unchecked. The conclusion follows that the intentions (or desires) to settle disputes by the force of arms are obviously still there. Or, conversely, the accumulation of weapons sometimes helps to alleviate fears of being attacked by a neighbor. It follows that genuine and complete disarmament is only possible simultaneously with dramatic changes in the world and the establishment of effective international organizations and mechanisms of conflict prevention. Mankind has been seeking a means of peaceful settlement of conflicts for more than 85 years, ever since before the League of Nations, and the time has come for it to finally do so. From this point on, development must not be a path of armed clashes of ever-increasing intensity. Simultaneous and concerted implementation of the five projects described here is one of the options. Post-Cold War Disarmament The foolish, risky nature of armed confrontation on such a scale became clear to policy makers during the Cold War. Steps to reduce tension were taken. The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 was probably the first major landmark here. This phase of history ended with a profound change in the global policy of the Soviet Union in the 1980s, when it was forced to admit its inability to maintain parity or hope to win a future hypothetical
Our descendants will probably speak of poor judgment in potential prevention of the arms race, of separateness of states and peoples in the efforts to overcome the global crisis, of the lack of political will on the part of statesmen, politicians and the select. Human beings have been making the same mistakes over and over again for centuries and paying dearly for it. (Ivan Yakovlev, The History of Humanity, 2006). 33 It will probably be eventually recognized that the crisis in the relationship between the West and Islamic fundamentalism today is sponsored to a considerable degree by the wealthy and powerful (at least in the Islamic world) and that the masses of the poor serve as a tool for promotion of their interests.
32

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

254

war. Withdrawal from the German Democratic Republic and from the rest of Eastern Europe, the pullout from Afghanistan, and reforms in the county itself put an end to long years of confrontation. "The Limited Test Ban Treaty" was signed in 1963; "Treaty on Nonproliferation" in 1970; "Treaty on the Prohibition of the Emplacement of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction on the Seabed and on the Ocean Floor and in the Subsoil Thereof" in 1972; "Antiballistic Missile Defense Treaty" in 1972; "Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction" in 1975; and "Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques" in 1978. Other documents were signed as well. In the 1980s, information was shared on the potential tragic global consequences of mass-scale employment of nuclear weapons. This information-sharing gave birth to mutual understanding. Manufacture of weapons of mass destruction continued (see the table in Chapter 12), but the confrontation began to slacken. More profound treaties were signed and came into force in the late 1980s the "Treaty on Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles" (1988)34, "Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe" or CFE Treaty (1990; a revision came into being in 1999)35, "Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty," or START-1, was signed in 1991 and START-2 was signed in 1993. Later, the United States withdrew from START-2 and Russia renounced its ratification36; "Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction" (1997); "Nuclear Free Zone Treaty" (1986, 1997); "Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production, and Transfer Antipersonnel Mines and on Destruction" (1997); and "Open Skies Treaty" (2002)37. Norway, Russia, and the United States signed the "Arctic Military Environment Cooperation" in 1996 regarding use of nuclear submarines and recycling of nuclear wastes 38. There is a UN Security Council's resolution (Resolution No. 1540 of 2004) imposing a ban of the support of nongovernmental structures in the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction, and a number of other documents. The Russian-U.S. "Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty" (signed in 2002, it came into force in June 2003) is one of the nuclear disarmament landmarks regarding the near future. The document calls for the United States and Russia to have between 1,700 and 2,200 strategic warheads deployed each by the end of 2012. Therefore, the number of warheads will be reduced by more than 15 times compared to year 1986. (See Reference 36 for the very latest plans). As things stand today, the total aggregate number of warheads has been reduced from 70,000 as of 1986 to less than 12,000. Different sources name different figures: According to one of them, the United States had 2,126 strategic nuclear warheads as of May 2009. In the meantime, arsenals throughout the world still contain half-finished mothballed articles and nuclear materials by the thousands. Missile complexes remain in operational readiness with a so-called zero mission profile. The missiles have no target coordinates to zero in on, and using them requires elaborate prelaunch sequences. Moscow and Washington pledged to share information on the number of nuclear warheads, silo locations, and the technical specifications of the existing weapons and the ones being designed. Their representatives are empowered to inspect submarine bases and launching pads. This task being of truly unprecedented importance, one may say that common sense and reason seem to be getting the upper hand. The risk of accidental launches went down. A next step is being prepared to achieve further reduction in the number of nuclear warheads. Radical proposals related to stepwise elimination of nuclear weapons (tentatively, a complete liquidation of nuclear weapons is to be achieved by 2030) are being considered by the Global Zero organization which was established in 2008 by politicians and military from various countries of the world.This idea is fully supported by the author of this book, however with a reservation that liquidation of nuclear weapons should be done concomitantly with liquidation of other types of weapons of mass destruction and research and development of such weapons should be stopped; besides, other projects described herebelow (Disarmament in the Future and others), or similar, should also be implemented. It could have been believed that we are moving in the right direction if it were not for the fact that military research and development continues and newest submarines and other cutting edge military hardware are being developed and manufactured. Arousing serious disagreements and disputes are the U.S. ABM systems development plans, most of all the plans of deploying such systems on the territories of Russia's neighbor states. The U.S. maintain that these systems are intended for defense against Iran and other countries. Com2,700 missiles had been eliminated under this treaty by June 1991. In accordance with the treaty's new edition, 12,000 pieces of military hardware were eliminated in Russia. However, in July 2007, Russia suspended her participation in the treaty referring to the fact that it was never ratified and was not properly observed by several member countries. 36 START is scheduled to expire as of 2009 and plans call for signing a new treaty toward the end of the year. The new treaty will allow each side to have some 1,500 warheads and 500 (1100) carriers. Adjustments need to be made for different carrier types. 37 The document allows for periodic inspection flights of unarmed craft above the territories of other signatories. 38 The problem of submarines was quite urgent at the time. Russia discarded 95 nuclear submarines of the Northern Fleet and 70 of the Pacific by 1997, and about 100 more wait for their turn.
34 35

Chapter 18 255

bined with granting NATO membership to the Baltic States, Slovenia and other countries of Eastern Europe, such activities work to considerably undermine Russia's defenses. Debates are under way regarding banning weapons in outer space, but the world powers with space flight capacity are understandably tempted to employ defensive and offensive systems beyond the atmosphere. At the very least, what they fear is being late and having their enemies put weapons in orbit. As things stand today, the number of Russia's orbiting satellites is only one-fourth of that of the United States (approximately 100 Russian satellites vs. 400 American). It cannot be ruled out that supersonic bombers capable of traveling beyond the atmosphere (advanced versions of Shuttle and Buran) may come into being in the next 15-20 years. The European Union adopted a "Strategy Against Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction" in 2003 and extended its program of surplus weapons utilization assistance to Russia39. Global spending on arms went down 1.5 times, from $1.4 trillion to $0.8 billion-$0.85 billion over a decade in the late 20th century40. Unfortunately, it has been creeping up for some years now and topped the $1 trillion mark again due to the opposition between the West and the extremist Islamic groups and a cooldown in the Russian-American relations. some. The scope of international trade in conventional weapons went down from $40 billion in 1998 to $18 billion in 2003 (according to SIPRI) and rebounded again. A convention on transparency of conventional arms deals Chemical weapons liquidation process was signed in 2002 and "The G8 Global Partnership Against (Izvestia, June 20, 2008) 41 the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction" was signed in 2002-2003. The United States buys uranium from Russia, helping the latter secure the colossal nuclear potential inherited from the late Soviet Union42. All Soviet nuclear arsenals were withdrawn to the territory of Russia so as not to leave them in the newly sovereign countries. In the meantime, the nuclear powers were compelled to make room in the nuclear club for India, Pakistan, Israel, South Africa, and North Korea. The former two obtained nuclear weapons openly, but information on the nuclear arsenals of the rest is practically nonexistent. The United States, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan, and a number of other foreign countries have given Russia over $15 billion to finance the disposal of nuclear submarines and chemical weapons as well as measures for safekeeping and burial of nuclear materials, etc. While the two world powers are striving to mitigate the hugely excessive arsenals of the Cold War, other countries (some of them fairly small) are building up stores of conventional armaments and aspire to learn the secrets of weapons of mass destruction. One hundred and fifty-nine states answered the call for "complete and general disarmament under effective international control" at a special session of the UN General Assembly in 1978. The "Proliferation Security Initiative" was launched in 2003, which boils down to an agreement of approximately 60 countries on cooperation and interaction between their law enforcement agencies, military structures, and ministries of foreign affairs to minimize the risk that weapons of mass destruction or their components will end up in the hands of terrorists or violators of the nonproliferation regime43. Needless to say, some countries object to the existing state of affairs, in which unrestricted nuclear technologies are "monopolized" by a dozen states. Iran is one of them. A wealthy country and once a major empire, Iran claims that its rights are being infringed upon. The international community and international organizations have concentrated on nuclear disarmament, but other weapons of mass destruction (chemical and germ warfare) are no less dangerous. A great deal of these munitions was accumulated in the Cold War. Disposal of chemical weapons requires special facilities and years of effort44. Suspension of research into germ warfare is also not easy to control. Work on new chemical and germ weapons may be taking place in different countries, and rapid technological advances make this more and more of a danger.
This concerns utilization of weapons-grade plutonium and providing equipment for liquidating chemical weapons. Spending on arms worldwide in 1993-2002 amounted to 2.9-2.3% of GDP (5-6% for some countries). 41 See end of Chapter 12 for arms deals. 42 Germany and the United States are assisting Russia with improvement of nuclear weapons storage facility security systems. It costs them about $50 million per year (Izvestia, May 2005). 43 Lack of equal opportunities for countries in the matter of possession of nuclear weapons may look definitely unfair, but easing of the danger of their employment is only possible at this point through their dismantlement by the countries that already possess them. 44 Russia and the United States have to liquidate about 40,000 tons of chemical weapons each. U.S. specialists claim that the national program will cost American taxpayers $25 billion. Experts differ on the required duration of the programs. They may end in 2012 or even later. See also Footnote 13 in Chapter 12.
39 40

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

256

With the Cold War over, the former antagonists reduced the numerical strength of their regular armies and level of armaments. The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe is in place today. The conventional downgrading Russia carried out was the largest in scope. The number of servicemen went down dramatically from approximately 5.5 million, and, according to the government decisions published in 2009, will be brought down to 1 million in the near future. The number of tanks was cut from 65,000 in the 1980s to 24,000 in 1996 and to 5000 or so by early 2004 (approximate figures from press publications). Of course, much military hardware remained at storage facilities throughout what had been the Soviet Union. The weapons industry and military budget are but shades of their former selves. The following figures lend a glimpse of the number of tanks in armies of foreign countries as of January 2004, i.e. 15 years after the end of the Cold War: 560 in the United States, 2,170 in Germany, 1,000 in France, 1,200 in Italy, 420 in Great Britain, 3,500 in Ukraine and 1,580 in Belarus (leftovers from the Soviet Army). There are approximately 30,000 tanks in the world today (SIPRI Yearbook 2004) and more or less as many armored fighting vehicles and artillery pieces. There are hundreds of aircraft as well (Russia has more than 2,000) and battleships. Of the 30 TU-160 large strategic bombers, only 14 remain45. The reduction of arsenals and slowdown of the armaments industry have been under way for quite a while now, but upgrading and design of new weapons (missiles, aircraft, tanks and so on) is still vigorously pursued. Construction of sophisticated nuclear submarines (each one costing about $2 billion)46 and other military assets and objects continues. Plagued by a shortage of budget funds, Russia sells newly designed military hardware to foreign customers more often than to its own Armed Forces. Disarmament in the Future Once the policy of disarmament is adopted and the economy converted to it and once social adaptation of servicemen and weapons specialists is under way, an even more radical disarmament will have to be launched. The international community should make a collective decision on phases of disarmament and the level of weapons to be left when each consecutive phase is implemented. Control and suppression mechanisms will remain necessary for as long as groups and states exist that may deliver a strike. The overall strength of armies and production of weapons in the meantime should be brought down from their current levels. Mankind should set itself the task of abolishing all the world's armies over the next 20-30 (or perhaps 30-50) years and leave police forces only. The vast quantities of military hardware that exist today are not needed to fight crime. This concerns abolition of conventional weapons and, of course, nuclear missile potential47. The task is to break the vicious circle in which the developed countries produce arms in order to protect themselves from various threats, including from the danger posed by the dissatisfaction of the poor countries with the present world order, while the gap in the quality of life cannot be bridged because the money, energy and enthusiasm are being spent on weapons development and production. Weapons are also possessed for prestige and sometimes as a means to an end (when the threat to use them is expected to accomplish a given purpose). The task mankind is facing is formulated in international documents: to "demilitarize national security systems to the level of a nonprovocative defense posture, and convert military resources to peaceful purposes. Eliminate nuclear, biological, and toxic weapons and other weapons of mass destruction" (The Earth Charter, 1999). In the Humanist Manifesto (2000) it is stressed that mankind should pass into an era in which the world will only need efficient police forces to prevent regional conflicts or resolve them through negotiations. Other documents contain similar conclusions and appeals48. It will hardly be possible to quickly resolve the problems this book is addressing, but we must be more decisive in our attempts at resolving them because the growing effectiveness of new weapons and their proliferation will be making armed conflicts more and more dangerous. Russia and the United States should play an instrumental part in arms control and elimination of armaments, because they have more weapons than any other countries in the world and possess technologies of weapons of mass destruction to a larger degree. Accordingly, these two countries should shoulder the responsibility (again, to a larger extent than any other country) and enlist other countries' support, financial and otherwise, in design and production of systems of detection, control, prevention, and elimination of germ and chemical weapons. These two countries should
Information has been recently leaked to the press that fabrication of these warplanes has resumed. The United States plan to build eight 7,800 ton nuclear submarines by 2020 which will cost the aggregate of $14 billion. There are five such submarines in the world today; according to plans, their number will be brought to 30. China plans to join the submarine race too. 47 "We live in a probabilistic world. By signing treaties on nonproliferation and nuclear weapons limitations and promising not to be the first to employ these weapons, we only reduce the risk of their employment. The chances of their employment will be zero only if and when we destroy the missiles" (Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Valery Legasov, 1984). 48 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) facilitates understanding of the problems the world is facing. A major center in the sphere of disarmament and international security, SIPRI collects data on weapons, conflicts and other events and publishes them on an annual basis. Current updates on weapons, disarmament and security can be found in the latest SIPRI issue (http://www.sipri.org/yearbook) which is available on the Internet.
46 45

Chapter 18 257

Ending efforts to develop and improve weapons is a more complicated issue than one might think. The day may come when means of destruction will be needed to defend the planet from massive celestial bodies on a collision course (to destroy them or change their trajectory). The possible existence of extraterrestrial intelligence and contacts with it constitute another factor that has to be taken into account. Should an alien spaceship park in orbit around Earth, the aliens' technological level and mindset (and particularly their intentions and actions concerning mankind) will be issues of unprecedented importance. At best, we will exchange information once purely technical problems have been taken care of (reciprocal protection from bacteria, different atmospheres, etc.). At worst, mankind will be forced to repel an aggression and attempts at colonization. The capacity for planetary defense will decide everything in such a case. The last thing mankind wants, after all, is to find itself in the position of the American or Australian aborigines of several centuries ago or, even worse, an anthill about to be destroyed in the course of building a highway. These considerations may look like the stuff of science fiction, but the possibility of this turn of events exists and should be taken into account. It follows that research in fields that may lead to the appearance of new destructive methods and weapons may be needed after all, as long as it is done on a limited scope and under control. All these matters warrant a special discussion.
Prof. Akop Nazaretian wrote in his book The Anthropology of Violence (2007) that "The possessor of a powerful force must learn self-control or perish." Later in the same book, he writes that "we are currently facing the danger of a rapid collapse of our entire planetary civilization. Our task for today is to develop humanitarian thinking to balance the increasingly intricate technologies that, becoming widely accessible, are fraught with global threats."
49

actively propose organizational and legislative initiatives that will avert these dangers, coordinating their actions in international organizations. (It is also an exceptional opportunity to preserve their greatness and importance in the world!) As for reduction of nuclear arsenals, the two nuclear powers have pledged to keep up their efforts in this sphere, and other countries offer the process their wholehearted support. Here it is appropriate to quote Dwight Eisenhower, the 34th president of the United States and a five-star general in the United States Army: "If men can develop weapons that are so terrifying as to make the thought of global war include almost a sentence for suicide, you would think that man's intelligence and his comprehension... would include also his ability to find a peaceful solution." Conversion of the military-industrial sector, re-training and finding new jobs for weapon scientists, weaponmakers, servicemen and specialists represents a big issue. The effort will affect millions of people, particularly in the states which were the major players in the Cold War. Focus on the military and aggressive propaganda of the dangers posed by the West in the Soviet Union and vice versa resulted in the militarization of consciousness. Refocusing it on economic issues is not easy. Controlling the new technologies which are gaining momentum today (genetic engineering, robotics, and nanotechnology) will be difficult as well. Unlike nuclear, biological and chemical weapons which were from the very start developed in restrictedaccess state-controlled laboratories for military purposes, many of the present-day cutting edge research are being performed by privately-owned companies in pursuit of profit. The existing policy in technological secrecy protection seriously complicates placing such research under control. Unlike nuclear testing control which is easy due to seismic tremors and radiation emissions, control of lab research in the fields listed above requires special checkups similar to those used for bacteriological weapons control, but on a bigger scale. Experts say, research in these directions may reach a dangerous threshold in 20-30 years, but already today the issue requires international attention as no less important than measures of containing existing weapons. It may be added that the spread of learning and elevation of the cultural, professional, and intellectual level of the developing countries the billions lagging behind will expand the circle of persons capable of expounding new technologies, including those needed for weapons production. Nuclear physics is one of the fields where this trend is already noticeable. Many medical methods, atomic power engineering, and nuclear weapons are based on nuclear physics. Widening the distribution of atomic scientists will spread this dangerous knowledge. The same applies to chemists, geneticists, and other scientists. A pacifistic upbringing and other measures discussed in this chapter are the only cure. Abolition of armies and weapons being a must, dealing with the psychological and ideological "weapons" used in the terrorist war is also of paramount importance. The attacker's strength is determined to a considerable extent by his skills in indoctrination and ability to convince others to sacrifice themselves for the sake of some "great objective." Even mass casualties in the attacker's own population are acceptable. Common substances available at every store can be used in subversive actions. Efforts to end the terrorist war should concentrate on elimination of what is causing the conflict in the first place, propaganda, and webs of informants in the underworld for the purposes of prevention of terrorist acts. Victory in the terrorist war (or its abolition) requires modification of consciousness (see the previous chapter). Implementation of the projects suggested in this book will eliminate the causes of the terrorist war. The future of mankind will be determined by success (or failure) of modification of consciousness, first and foremost, of those who make decisions and set policies, ideologies and so on49.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

258

In summing up, Project II. Disarmament50 is: Gradual disarmament with the ultimate goal of abolition of national armies and setting up an international police force for maintaining safety and security. An end to development and production of conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction. International control over new scientific breakthroughs. III. Technology It has already been mentioned in this book that research and technological developments are mostly centered on two tasks the development of military items (offensive and defensive) and improvement of living standards and extension of the life span. Some effort is put into expanding mankind's knowledge of nature and the fundamental questions of the world, how it came to be, and the evolution, appearance, activity, and now engineering of living organisms. As soon as mankind learns to make some new means of destruction, however, researchers nearly always shift from scientific pursuits to military development (either by themselves or on orders from their superiors). Attempts made to protect and restore the environment are relatively bloodless. With the scientific and technological accomplishments of the last several centuries, mankind could provide decent living standards for all (meaning 7 billion people, this being the latest estimate of the global population) in terms of subsistence, comfort regardless of climatic conditions, and communications. Unfortunately, these accomplishments have failed to become global due to a number of political, social, and other reasons. Humanitarian technologies (sciences). The developments described in previous chapters call for setting scientific research on a new path. Priority, or at least a much bigger attention, should be attached to technologies of transformation of consciousness, implantation of new principles and modes of behavior, technologies of propaganda (see Project I. Consciousness), and, in the long run, establishment of a sustainable and prosperous world. This all concerns economic, social, psychological, and political studies within the framework of the humanitarian, social sciences and technologies. "The development of science and technology oriented toward income, war, and destruction should give way to a search for the conditions that will enable man to survive," as Nikita Moiseev said, and "scientists conquer newer and newer domains of the universe, but the world of man is undoubtedly the last of these domains It is necessary to develop social sciences that contribute to the transformation of the world," in the words of the American sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein. Radical breakthroughs in the humanitarian spheres are not impossible; for instance, more efficient systems of community management, methods of rearing children, propaganda of a new way of life, and methods of conflict resolution51 may be devised. The opinion even exists that "the 21st century will be a century of human sciences or it won't be at all" (the French sociologist Claude Levi-Strauss). A new social science is needed to study the new historical reality, define ways of development, and look for the optimum alternative futures. "Perhaps we will take a look at ourselves one fine day, become horrified, and finally understand that in order to remain human beings and survive, we should create and not destroy, give and not consume, evolve spiritually and not just administer to ever-growing physiological needs," Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Viktor Sadovnichiy wrote. Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, for his part, maintained that: "We will never live to see the end of the 21st century without science. Science in working partnership with all other forms of public consciousness will have to tackle the global problems of modernity of unprecedented complexity, beginning with demographic, ecological, and energy ones and ending with scientific substantiation of the humanization of the mankind's transition to a qualitatively different state." Social technology. This term may be used to denote matters of social welfare, the availability of education and medical services to all, and openness of information on the activities of the structures in control. A perfect system should be free of corruption, have competent officials, and have laws that are observed52. Economics is close to the social technologies also. The level it is at today is inadequate for coping with global or even regional tasks. This leads to large-scale economic crises.
50 In discussing this part of the book with specialists, the author heard the opinion that radical disarmament on a global scale is a fantastic idea that cannot be realized. Indeed, this disarmament is only possible simultaneously with or in the wake of a change in the global mindset and frameworks of interrelations. In other words, it is possible provided the programs suggested in this book (and analogous programs) are implemented. Otherwise, mankind must come up with other ways and means of saving itself. The author assumes that the trends and laws of development are leading mankind to catastrophe. The purpose of this book therefore is suggesting that the general public give a serious thought to what is happening and to the possible variants of the future (say, the next 30-50 years). 51 Save for some exceptions, the list of probable technologies of the near future (see Chapter 17) does not include humanitarian ones. This is an indication of their secondary role in present-day research. This state of affairs must be changed. 52 Finland is setting an example. Education, even higher education, is available to all citizens. Children are escorted to school and back. At school, children master several languages. Teachers command respect and are handsomely paid. It is thus no wonder that this northern country, with practically no resources of its own, is the best in the world in many parameters. The situation in Sweden and some other countries is similar.

Chapter 18 259

Political technologies. The issues of regulating interstate relations, dispute settlement, UN refurbishment or establishing a different organization in its place (a world government?) are paramount for future stability on the planet. These issues are analyzed in Chapter 11 and some other sections of this book, and the effectiveness of their resolution will be crucial for the very existence of mankind53. Industrial technologies. Where food and other vitally needed stuff is concerned, manufacturing techniques are developing rapidly and will apparently continue to do so. Productivity, assortment, and quality are rising, as costs fall. Information technologies and robotics are opening a new vista of opportunities for dealing with the problems discussed in this book. Continued studies of the universe, microcosm, and the human genome promise many unpredictable discoveries. A major part will be played by changes in the structure of expenses, reorientation of funding and researchers' attention from military programs to peaceful objectives and insurance of sustainable development. Caution is advised in fields that may lead to invention of new means of destruction; research in such areas should be suspended or placed under rigid control. New lines of research should be carefully studied for traps. In any case, it is progress in knowledge that has made civilization what it is (with all its successes and shortcomings), and a more skillful regulation of this process is needed henceforth. Environmental-protection technologies and security culture. Along with the above-mentioned fields of science, the participation of which in global changes is a necessity, mankind should redouble its efforts to perfect energy-saving, material-economic, and non-waste technologies. They are needed to prevent harm to the soil, subsurface resources, bodies of water, the atmosphere and near space. Conservation and restoration of lost forests, some species, and other valuable assets is one priority. Medical research retains importance. Active measures are needed to ensure a global spread of the already existing technologies and their installation in the backward countries. Most work will be done at home in the future information society; commuting will diminish in scope, which will offer a partial solution to the problems of congested highways, energy expenditure, and environmental pollution. The science of security in all aspects and spheres of life (from industry to civilian construction, from medical aid to accident-safe transport and production plants) should be elevated to a new level. The Earth Charter (1999) advocates research that contributes to environmental protection and recovery and increases living standards on a global scale. This document also suggests that the international community "reduce, reuse, and recycle the materials used in production and consumption systems, and ensure that residual waste can be assimilated by ecological systems act with restraint and efficiency when using energy, and rely increasingly on renewable energy sources such as solar and wind promote the development, adoption, and equitable transfer of ecologically sound technologies [and] ensure universal access to health care that fosters reproductive health and responsible reproduction." Studies of whatever natural phenomena may pose a danger (asteroids, cosmic radiation, geological disasters, and new disease agents) belong in the same category. The United States appears to have embarked on some radical changes in the approaches to government support of fundamental and research science. In a speech he made in April 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama heralded redoubled funding of fundamental science, allocation of $150 billion "over 10 years to invest in sources of renewable energy as well as energy efficiency" and set a goal of reducing America's carbon pollution by more than 80 percent by 2050. "Today I'm announcing a renewed commitment to education in mathematics and science. Through this commitment, American students will move from the middle to the top of the pack in science and math over the next decade. In biomedicine, just to give you an example of what PCAST [Presidents Council of Advisors on Science and Technology ] can do, we can harness the historic convergence between life sciences and physical sciences that's underway today. In environmental science, it will require strengthening our weather forecasting. The commitment I am making today will fuel our success for another 50 years. This work begins with a historic commitment to basic science and applied research, from the labs of renowned universities to the proving grounds of innovative companies. We know that the quality of math and science teachers is the most influential single factor in determining whether a student will succeed or fail in these subjects," Barack Obama said. Space exploration technologies should move to a more important position in mankind's research and plans. I have mentioned before in this book that mankind is on the threshold of an advance into outer space on a major scale. It is about to start tapping practically unlimited resources of energy and practically all the elements of Mendeleyev Periodic Table. The establishment of bases on the Moon and orbital production plants and settlements will soon become a reality. No insurmountable limitations have revealed themselves in this sphere over the 50 years of space exploration. The major problem today lies in finding cheaper ways of overcoming the force of gravity. A recent breakthrough in launch techniques brings implementation of exploration plans up a bit: modified airplanes are being used for the initial acceleration of spacecraft. The cost of bringing objects to
53 "We should develop a better self-awareness in order to find ways out of the dead ends we are getting into. Humanity will not perish, however, on the one condition that it will be managed in a more professional way," Academician Vyacheslav Ivanov said.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

260

outer space may decrease drastically in the near future: A brief visit to beyond the atmosphere for a space tourist may well go down to $150,000-200,000 and eventually to $20,000-30,000 (from the recent $20 million). Thousands are already putting themselves on the waiting list. (See Chapter 17 for other launch options.) Once the first extraterrestrial production plants are built (on the Moon, asteroids, or artificial satellites), equipment for and parts of future space objects may be built there. Progress will therefore shed its dependence on solving the problem of negotiating gravity. Robot-controlled or manned by skeleton crews, these plants will be able to produce whatever is needed for construction of space settlements, industries and means of subsistence. Unlike colossal Earth itself, artificial objects will be maneuverable and thus easily defensible from asteroids. Just imagine what may be accomplished in this very century provided the army of specialists and factories currently deployed in military programs joins the outer space exploration effort. The following kinds of technologies will determine our future: Humanitarian technology that regulates and transforms our consciousness, behavior, and mindset (methods of upbringing, propaganda, and so on)54 technology that defines political and social makeup of society. Technology of subsistence production; information facilities, and artificial intelligence. Environmental-protection technology. Space-exploration technology: the establishment of a production base and use of extraterrestrial resources. Intense study of nature. Civilization's archives and vaults. Being an optimist by nature convinced that the international community will recognize the dangers facing it and make the necessary transformation, the author nevertheless deems it expedient to establish well-protected storage facilities to accommodate human civilization's most valuable information, samples of materials and equipment, and floral and faunal genetic materials. They may become needed for civilization's recovery after a cataclysm a natural or a man-triggered one. The first of such facilities is the Doomsday Seed Vault recently built on the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen55 (see photo in Chapter 2). Now let's summarize Project III. Technology: Development of humanitarian technologies providing for transformation of the mindset and consciousness in accordance with Project I. Development of technologies that will ensure high living standards and environmental protection. Establishment of extraterrestrial industrial facilities. IV. Economics The above-mentioned projects plainly show that a transformation of consciousness is necessary for global reorganization and making the world sustainable. A revolution in the military sphere is needed at the same time: nondesign and nonproduction of armaments instead of the active production of weapons typical of our past. Scientific and technological research should concentrate on perfection of technologies that boost living standards, extend the life span, and conserve the environment (and on continuation of studies of nature, of course). The humanitarian sciences need to focus on the technologies of consciousness transformation and community management. This project, Project IV, places an emphasis on the introduction of cutting-edge technologies in the developing countries, alongside political and social achievements. Project III. Technology mentioned the necessity of enlisting the services of specialists in the human sciences. They latter are to find the means to overcome the inertia of old ways and traditions and replace or modify religious and ideological dogmas that collide with innovations or a progressive and democratic outlook (the process will be difficult, of course, but it must be made as painless and conflict-free as possible). These specialists will instill a new culture and a new mindset. Elimination (at first a substantial narrowing down) of the financial, technological, and cultural gap will require investment and purely financial steps56. It will also require mass training of local personnel and involvement of specialists from advanced countries. The resistance put up by local rulers and unwilling strata of the population should be neutralized. "Everyone needs economic growth, but nobody wants changes," the American economist Paul Romer said. National leaders commanding respect with their peoples will play a major (or even decisive) part in this undertaking. "Some countries have leaders who use their time in office to try to drive modernization
The term human studies was used in the past. The vault has the capacity to store 4.5 million food seed samples. The vault is dug into the permafrost of the mountain and designed to withstand both man-made and natural disasters, including power system's failure. There are reasons to believe the vault is secure enough to keep the seed fund for hundreds or even thousands of years. In the meantime, some experts suggest establishing a "DNA archive" on the Moon. 56 Andrey Sakharov once made the radical suggestion to "impose a kind of tax on the advanced countries, something about 25% of their national income, for the next 15 years or so."
54 55

Chapter 18 261

rather than personally enrich themselves. And some countries simply have venal elites, who use their time in office to line their pockets and then invest those riches in Swiss real estate" (Thomas Friedman, The World Is Flat, 2005) . Land should be parceled out to the poor57 in some countries. Most developing countries are governed "by corrupt and incompetent dictators whose conduct makes economic development impossible and pushes their countries into civil war. What these countries need is not much more money but better government" ( Robert Skidelski, member of the House of Lords of the British Parliament). Unfortunately, the experience of the countries that shed their colonial status has not always been positive. Putting them on the right track requires transformation of the consciousness of the population (along with political decisions at the international level and proper management), and that in its turn requires activeness of the local media outlets and international information network. Transformation totalitarian states involves problems of a similar nature. "The political regimes that replace authoritarian ones frequently lack historic legitimation or traditions providing for stability of governance. There are no guarantees that establishment of sustainable democratic institutions will follow," as Yegor Gaidar describes things in his The Death of Empire. "Many states and territories throughout the world cannot offer normal living standards to their respective populations. They are known as 'falling' (they were known as developing countries in the past) or already 'fallen' ('failed states'). They are sources of all sorts of trouble, from environmental pollution to demographic problems, and they breed instability, terrorism, and so on. By establishing a bipolar world and fighting each other, the Soviet Union and United States made a mistake [? Evgeny Abramyan] in the 1950-1960s when they acknowledged many territories as sovereign states. One hundred sovereign states joined the 50 that existed in the world by the end of World War II. (The UN already includes 200 states.) How sovereign are these states if they cannot provide normal life and development on their territories?" (political scientist Sergey Karaganov). "Regimes that doom their peoples to impoverishment are irresponsible and amoral. Development is needed in the name of peoples, not bureaucratic elites of postcolonial societies or local fiefdoms" (Professor of Economics Vladislav Inozemtsev). "An Agenda for Peace," a 1992 UN report, introduced the notion of peace-building, which implied, among other things, assignment of UN personnel to the backward countries that had been devastated by wars to promote observance of human rights; aid with the return of refugees, restoration of state institutions, and disarmament; monitor elections; and so on. Sometimes such missions are accompanied with military operations needed to stop conflicts. This has been done in Africa, in postconflict Kosovo, and in East Timor. Today, such operations are under way in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Other steps in the same direction include duty-free imports from the developing countries to the European Union and other advanced states and the writing-off of the debts of 18 poor African countries, totaling approximately $40 billion (the G8 made this decision in 2005). The governments of the African countries, in their turn, should develop democracy and civil societies, overcome corruption, make their budgets "transparent," and rule by law (see the end of Chapter 8). Back in 1970, the world powers pledged to allocate the equivalent of 0.7% of their GDPs to aid the poorest countries of the world. Some 40 years have elapsed since then, but this still remains to be just a good idea58. Several countries with various backgrounds, some of them devastated by war, successfully reformed their national economies in the second half of the 20th century. Almost a dozen countries changed their mindsets, performed an "economic miracle," and reached impressive living standards (see Chapter 8). What they accomplished should be repeated by the developing countries today (with the specifics taken into account, of course), with financial and organizational assistance from the advanced countries. Everything depends on a determined and skillful effort of all involved parties (the helpers and the helped) and on their readiness to finance the transformation programs. The reduction of the military industry and the availability of means, jobs, and specialists in the advanced countries create favorable conditions for refocusing efforts on the projects we are discussing59. Other financial sources that may be tapped have been mentioned earlier in this chapter. One might object that this successful transformation will leave the world absolutely unable to cope with billions of people enjoying high living standards and actively (and dangerously) affecting their habitat. A solution
57 Latifundists own practically all of the land in many countries. They do not want it farmed. Neither are they interested in introduction of high farming methods. 58 The July 2009 G8 forum adopted the decision to invest $15 billion in support of agriculture development in the world's poorest countries over the next three years. The West has been trying to invigorate the economies of these countries for several decades now. All in vain. The truth, however, lies in the fact that African economies will not get any better until they are liberalized and until corruption and bad management are done away with and cease to be habitual phenomena. 59 "A mankind that spends trillions on the newest methods of warfare but cannot pool its efforts to put an end to starvation is pretty worthless," the journalist Semyon Novoprudsky said. He is correct of course, but mankind means all of us and trying to transform it and fighting for a sustainable future is really our only option.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

262

"Insufficient nutrition, poor sanitary conditions, and poor health are typical for millions throughout the world. In fact, they are typical for many people in the so-called wealthy countries. The benefits and costs of globalization are spread unevenly, and this global disparity may actually take root. The future of civilization is put in jeopardy because the economic policies of most states come down to primitive industrialism at all costs, without regard to the grave consequences for the global habitat. Unless measures are taken to change the lives of the poor, they may lose faith in their representatives and in democratic systems. The participants in the conference reaffirmed their determination to increase the capacities for satisfying basic needs (drinkable water, sanitation, adequate housing, energy, health care, and food security), provide jobs and guarantees of employment, and ensure social protection for the elderly and special programs for the physically handicapped. It is necessary to help everyone gain access to financial resources, benefit from open markets, increase potentials, and use modern technologies in the interests of development. Measures are needed to take care of transfer of technologies, the development of human potential, education, and personnel training. This will make backwardness a thing of the past. The process should be all-encompassing, embracing all major groups and governments. These latter should make concrete efforts toward the target of 0.7% of the GNP [provided that military spending is reduced, this figure can be considerably increased Evgeny Abramyan] as official development assistance." Mankind must pool its efforts and close ranks to save the planet, facilitate development of human potential, and establish universal prosperity and peace. The conference called for bold and innovative ideas aimed at maximal acceleration of human progress on a global scale.

to the problem can be seen in the coordinated realization of all five projects, careful planning of their phases, and monitoring of their implementation. Undue strain on environment, for example, may be prevented by concentration on energy-efficient technologies, environmental action, space exploration, and an ideology of rational consumption (of the Golden Billion, to begin with, and then of all the rest, along with improvement of their living standards). It is necessary to make provisions for a decent life in the developing countries, making health care services available and education within reach and realization of individual potentials possible, but immoderation and overconsumption must be avoided. I have already mentioned that the coming changes and improvement of living standards will bring the birth rate down, and population size will be described by a moderately sloping curve (see diagram in Chapter 1). The following are selected excerpts from the resolutions of the 2002 Rio+10 conference on sustainable development:

"The free market system is blind when it comes to long-term, strategic planning. It is best equipped for reacting on current demand and its near-term forecasts as well as on the ever-changing trends in profitability, etc. In other words, free market mechanisms are especially good for formulating near-term, sometimes medium-term, projects. In the public consciousness, including in Russia, the stereotype has formed that a free-market-based society is an embodiment of democ60 Here is an excerpt from a speech at Davos in 2005. "The aggregate turnover of the world's 100 largest enterprises exceeded $7 trillion in 2004. One-third of the population, a privileged minority in the unstable world, is involved in the globalized economy. This state of affairs implies dire consequences. Development of the backward countries is the principal challenge and a long overdue necessity of our era. The young generations in Africa, Asia and Latin America are laying a fair claim to their right to the future. They are prepared to commit their energy and skills as soon as the opportunity to do so presents itself. Overcoming impoverishment by a combination of market relations and solidarity is our common task. Left to their own devices, economic forces become blind; they can only exacerbate the state of affairs for the poor. Progress of democracy, better governance, war on corruption these are the top priorities of securing economic growth. Abolition of impoverishment requires only 3% of the annual increment of the global wealth ($3 trillion). The developing countries need stable and predictable financing, i.e., based on long-term mechanisms."

A recent report, "On the Implementation of the UN Millennium Declaration," drafted by 265 UN experts, suggests some specific proposals. It points out that implementation of them will enable "more than 500 million to extricate themselves from impoverishment, 250 million more will no longer starve, and 30 million children will be saved." The report was drafted by working groups covering all matters from education to malaria to hunger. The document calls for a radical revision of the international system of development, which is showing its shortcomings organizational flaws and inefficiency all too frequently. The authors of the report maintain that only 30 cents (!) out of every dollar of international aid are actually spent on regional development programs. (The World Economic Forum in Davos60 discussed the same matters in 2005.) It is fairly clear that the high productivity of labor in production of necessities that mankind has achieved to date is sufficient to clothe, feed, and house everyone. A single worker at a modern enterprise produces enough goods for hundreds and thousands (see Chapter 4). It follows that the problem boils down to worldwide dissemination of the existing knowledge and technologies, in addition to abolition of wasteful expenditures (on armaments and armed conflicts) and reduction (or, even better, abolition) of crime, which inevitably brings losses. If mankind succeeds in making use of the enormously high potential of technological development and almost unlimited resources of outer space, the most complicated problem will be that of organizing human communities, establishing durable economic, political and social systems and eliminating vices. The need for restructure and upgrade of existing economic system is addressed in the book by Viktor Danilov-Danilyan, Kim Losev and Igor Reif, In Front of the Civilization's Main Challenge (2005). The following is an excerpt from the book:

Chapter 18 263

racy and freedom. However, the truth is that even in the most democratic countries, firms and corporations utilize very authoritarian schemes of corporate governance: their employees are not only not admitted to electing their top managers, but are also not admitted to high level decision-making. "It is well known that market relations can cause people to change. In some people, the free market catalyzes ambitions, hunger for money, or the desire to push competitors out of the business at any cost, while others are infected with a mania for purchasing items. (With the removal of all ethical restraints, such marginal and pernicious businesses as gambling, prostitution, pornography and narcotics become very profitable ones). The post-World War II world economic system has, on the one hand, demonstrated unprecedented capacities for economic growth, particularly in the developed countries. Certain positive developments have taken shape in the Third World as well. However, at the turn of the 21st century, the situation began to worsen again. Proportion of the poor in the world population remained stable from 1985 to 1990; then, in the 1990s, it began to increase, most rapidly after the 1997-1998 financial crisis. Thus, the gap between the Golden Billion and the Third World has widened, which, to a considerable extent, has come as the result of the protectionist policy in trade practiced by the developed countries." The excerpt refers to the type of economy that was prevalent in the United States and a number of other countries in the late 20th century and the early 21st century with maximum of freedom and minimum of regulation (sometimes referred to as Reaganomics). As was noted in the end of Chapter 9, the current world economic crisis (2007-2011?) is expected to bring about some radical changes to economic management on the global scale, specifically more rigid controls and regulation mechanisms are likely to be introduced, the existing international financial institutions are likely to be modified or replaced, limits might be imposed on the consumption in the developed world and among the top income bracket of the population and action taken to enforce a thriftier use of the natural resources. In other words, there will be a shift to the left (from the Friedman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman) economic model to the Keynesian (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics) one).

The gist of Project IV. Economics is: Improving the economies of the developing countries: introduction of latest technologies, training personnel, and rendering material assistance; establishment of fair and stable social systems. Elimination of the gap in living standards, regulation of economy on a global scale to prevent global economic crisis from occurring. V. Geopolitics The structure of the interrelation between the communities making up the world is one of the essential factors that determine the life of mankind. Civilization began with settlements and states with the population running into first thousands and then millions. The rise and fall of countries and empires were accompanied by wars and, not infrequently, ethnic hatred. There are over 225 countries in the world today, concerned with preservation of their territorial integrity and sovereignty61 and sometimes entertaining expansionary ideas. Religious and ideological solidarity play an essential role in the world structure, because they recognize no borders and create alliances that span whole countries and regions. Some wholly new phenomena have appeared in the world in recent decades. Structures born of globalization (economic, industrial, information, and otherwise; see Article 9) are superimposed on the existing network of state formations. The importance of state borders is therefore diminishing: actual conquest is no longer needed to operate in a foreign country and have an impact on life in it because economic, cultural, or intellectual activeness will suffice. The notion of state is transforming and losing a great deal of its previous connotations. To this should be added the growing awareness of the unacceptability of wars, which may escalate into global annihilation, and the following conclusion becomes inevitable: mankind is facing the necessity of a radical revision of the old traditions of international, planetary existence. ("The international security system should be inclusive, and security cooperation and mutual reassurance should replace mutual deterrence, associated with balance-ofpower policies" (Adam Rotfeld, SIPRI Yearbook 2000). "I consider negotiation of the split of the world into antagonistic alliances particularly important" (Andrey Sakharov). Western Europe once presented an example of progressive reforms on a major scale (the Renaissance). In the th 20 century, it launched another transformation and established the European Union, an ultramodern framework. This new and unprecedented formation a voluntary alliance of dozens of countries and nationalities has been established gradually, step by step, since the late 1940s. It is a union of countries that were at each other's throats for centuries, losing millions of lives in these wars, a union of states that have abolished borders
61 Countries, even the smallest ones, nearly always aspire for sovereignty. More often than not, this is due to a desire to get rid of dominance and oppression by a stronger neighbor and local leaders' and elites' eagerness to rule alone. A natural instinct to be first and subjugate others is typical of groups of individuals and even whole countries. Many countries established in the last several eras cannot cope with domestic problems the economy, social issues and so on. They instead arm themselves in the meantime and frequently wage civil wars or fight each other.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

264

The 27 countries of the European Union (with a population of almost half a billion) have common laws and governance. Increasing the standard of living on their territory and assuming their position among the advanced countries of the world is virtually their sole concern. The expansion of the community to 27 member states will occur in a matter of a few years. Unification took almost half a century. Time is needed to make the European Union more monolithic, to enable it to reach a commonality of economies, social structures, and so forth. Difficulties are encountered, for instance, recently with the adoption of the EU constitution. Attempts are made to pursue the policy of "multiplicity of cultures," tolerance, and respect for all groups. Internal conflicts do become acute on occasion, mostly because of the appearance of large diasporas representing Muslim and other cultures. The armies that used to stand on the borders have been disbanded, and spending on their maintenance and armament is no longer necessary. Confrontation, and therefore the danger of armed conflicts, is eliminated. No armies means no danger of aggression and no militarist indoctrination of the population. It does away with the whole list of the conflicts so typical of the world we live in.

and visas and set up a joint parliament and other joint systems of governance. Alyson J.K. Bailes points out in SIPRI Yearbook 2003 that the end of World War II offered Europe a unique opportunity that was acted on in a similarly unique manner. The integrated community was given a kind of blanket jurisdiction, pooled resources, and opportunities of close cooperation between member states in domestic policies, and supranational governance)62. These relationships between sovereign states know no analogs in history, either before or after the creation of the European Union. The nearly genetic animosity between Germans and French, Poles and Germans, Lithuanians and Poles, and others has been overcome. Some wariness and doubt exists even now, but reason has suppressed actual hatred and introduced a new mode of behavior63. This is a perfect example for the world, for all peoples that are still at odds with each other. Awareness of the reality and changes in behavioral patterns are only possible if and when the actual cause of discontent is addressed, when relationships of equality and partnership are established, when equal opportunity is ensured and living standards rise. In other words, it becomes possible when common sense prevails, and common sense plainly shows that the old aspirations, ambitions, and grievances only lead into a blind alley and entail loss.

There are many countries with several (or even many) ethnicities and languages: Switzerland, Belgium, Canada, China, India, and others. The Soviet Union was a colossal formation, and Russia remains a multiethnic country even now. States where a single ethnic group is predominant are actually few in number. Mankind also knows examples of close long-term political, commercial, and other relations between countries: the British Commonwealth of Nations; US-EU cooperation; cooperation between the United States and Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan; and so on. Political and economic alliances exist and function: ASEAN, NAFTA, Mercosur (Mercado Comun del Sur or Common Market of the Southern Cone), the Organization of African Unity, Organization of American States, Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation, Shanghai Cooperation Organization64, NATO, and many others. Unfortunately, these links are clearly inadequate for dealing with the global problems of our era. Had other regions of the world followed in the steps of the European Union, the threats that appear that are linked to, and colossal and wasteful spending on, weapons, armies, and recurring conflicts would have been abolished65. Other groups of sovereign states may form in this century (greatly facilitated by the implementation of the projects described in this chapter). This should all be carried out simultaneously: transformation of consciousness; new levels of education, economies, and social systems; elimination of borders; and abolition of standing armies and weapons. Broader use of the EU experience is needed in establishment of similar unions66 in other parts of the world. It is necessary to find ways for large alliances to cooperate. Ideally, mankind should strive for establishment of a world community where armed forces and clashes will be as much a chimera as wars between EU members are today. There are no other humane alternatives that ensure the survival of civilization. Drawing on the League of Nations and UN experience, the worldwide community should finally establish effective international organizations
62 Speaking of the unique opportunities offered by the end of World War II, it is necessary recall that some broad perspectives were also opened to the antifascist coalition of the world powers that had fought in the war side by side and won it despite their different systems of state and polar ideologies. Instead of advancing and developing cooperation in a time of peace, however, the former allies began viewing each other as enemies in a global confrontation. With each side striving for victory, the world found itself in the Cold War with all its expenditures and dangers. Even worse, it found itself in the grips of the old pattern of relationships between people and communities involving ambitions, conflicts and even the occasional threat of mutual extermination. It is clear that the antifascist coalition was born of the awareness of the hopelessness of the situation, of the threat of imminent destruction by the German military machine. From this we draw the conclusion that mankind needs to recognize pressing nature of the existing threats to unite and act together in order to save civilization (this idea runs through this book). 63 So-called ancestral guilt is history now, i.e., blame for the errors of the past is no longer pinned on the new generation. 64 See Chapter 9. 65 It would have also made impossible criminal massacres of populations by their own rulers that happen while international organizations and democracies remain helpless observers, made so by the lack of legitimate grounds to interfere in order to stop and punish the guilty. 66 Ervin Laszlo in his Macroshift mentions the following variants: the North American Union, Latin American Union, North African Union, Mideast Union, African Union of sub-Sahara, Central Asian Union, South and South-Eastern Union and Australian-Asian-Pacific Union. Introduction of a common monetary unit in the ASEAN countries, establishment of a free trade zone in America and other steps in the same correct direction are being discussed today, along with the use of the associated member status as a transitional stage.

Chapter 18 265

(world government?) adequate to reality67. The new world community should be a perfect civil society in which every citizen will understand the necessity of democratic procedures and laws and do what is necessary to uphold them. There are many things that are difficult to imagine at this point, such as the amalgamation of Russia and the European Union: Russia's vast population, different mindset, and the mutual animosity fomented by the period of ideological confrontation and some episodes in history preclude it. Confederations of other states with a history of conflict between them is also difficult to imagine. On the other hand, hostility was once typical of the relationships between very many of the countries that comprise the European Union. The disintegration of the Soviet Union, which was a monolithic state for decades on end, essentially a single nation, appears to have been a step backward. The situation in Yugoslavia was even more problematic. Chauvinistic trends were particularly strong there, and wars took place. Some (or all?) of the peoples of the former Yugoslavia may eventually unite again within the framework of Greater Europe the European Union. What will the world be like if these unification trends are given decades to develop? The national consciousnesses of the formerly militaristic Germany and Japan took only 5-10 years to undergo dramatic transformation after 1945. The mindsets of populations of other countries did so as well in the following decades. Positive, unifying trends should be supported, or even promoted, and negative ones resolutely curtailed. Deterioration of the latter to the point where they may get out of hand must be prevented. A lot of proposals to transform the world order and reconstruct its geopolitical picture were voiced in the second half of the 20th century68. Unfortunately, the obviousness of the lethality of the arms race never taught mankind to know better than drive itself into dead ends. Stoked by the intensity of the confrontation, local wars continued even when the antagonists were aware of the inevitability of nuclear winter and the impossibility of victory. The Cold War ended only when one of the antagonists had weakened to the point where it could no longer meet new challenges. Regrettably, the relations between the former enemies are not settled even today, and their policies with regard to each other keep changing, albeit in a less dangerous fashion. "The new world order will not make many countries happy, and its rapid installation is therefore out of the question. Even the world powers fail to display the necessary psychological, moral, intellectual, and political readiness for the installation of a new system," as political scientist, professor Sergey Karaganov said. Nevertheless, the global situation has greatly improved, what with the experience of joint disarmament and close cooperation between the former antagonists. The radical changes of our era take the form of cooperation in dealing with nuclear materials, cutting arsenals, financial and technological aid in destruction of chemical-weapon stockpiles, declassification of former military secrets, foreign specialists' visits to classified installations, and what amounts to almost joint military operations against the Talibs in Afghanistan. The prominent American sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein also speaks of a new era in the life of mankind: "Much as I think that the next 25-50 years will be terrible ones in terms of human social relations, the period of disintegration of our existing historical social system and of transition towards an uncertain alternative The systematic crisis will force social reflection" ("Social Science and the Quest for a Just Society," American Journal of Sociology, March 1997). According to Wallerstein, mankind, if it would influence the changes taking place in the world, must face up to the fact that the state is not the principal locomotive force of progress. It is rather an obstacle. Recognition of the fact that state structures have become (or have always been?) a major obstacle to transformation of the world order is the original basis of the considerable discontent with the state in practically all countries. Bearing in mind the aforementioned factors and the necessity of finding a safer structure for the international community, we draw the conclusion that the geopolitical changes discussed here are important and possible. No alternative variants of ensuring survival come to mind. Project V. Geopolitics can be summarized as follows: Unification of states (along the lines of the European Union), abolition of borders and standing armies, establishment a world community with a common world government) in other words, a political, perhaps even social, globalization.
The EU is becoming a center of crystallization. By sending a contingent into the restless Balkans, for example, it would have surely pacified the region. Assimilation of Turkey may set an example for other Muslim countries cooperation with which is impeded by difficulties. A budding world community may take the form of the appearance of new analogs to the EU and expansion of already existing alliances. 68 For example, "this idea, of an end of nations and the creation of a world government, has been a dream of intellectuals since Kant. Though Utopian, it recurs in every generation" (Death of the West by American politician Patrick Buchanan, 2002). "Political scientists and futurologists dwell on what Russia will be like in the late 21st century or what China will be like There will be no Russia, [United] States, Uganda, or China! States as we know them will be history. Macrogroup cultures, i.e., cultures based on 'us and them' will cease to exist. There will be no Russians, Chinese, Christians, or Muslims" (philosopher and psychologist Akop Nazaretian). Writer Chingiz Aitmatov, in connection with the recent events in his native Kyrgyzstan, stated that "I have been promoting the idea of regional integration, Central Asian integration, Eurasian integration as a synthesis that opens new prospects and possibilities." The Russian philosopher Daniil Andreyev believes that the world community will eventually become something like a flower, what he called the Rose of the World, where each petal is a people with its religion, traditions and culture.
67

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

266

*** As it was stated above, a qualitatively new model for development of civilization is needed globally managed development of society and nature instead of an unconstrained spontaneous movement ("manual control," in technical vocabulary). Some processes should be slowed down or put on hold and others stimulated, accelerated, and refocused on new objectives when needed. First and foremost, this concerns science, education, and many other social, economic, and cultural processes. This book offers but a sketchy description of the projects. It will take dedicated specialists and painstaking effort to chart them all in detail69. The blind and accelerating development of the world can be put in order and changed (if and when we decide to do this) not at once but over a long period of time, perhaps several decades. Continual efforts will then be required for maintaining peace on the planet. "The time-lags built into the dynamics of our world are considerable. We would have had to change yesterday, so to speak, to head off the crisis tomorrow," as Ervin Laszlo said. The problem is that a host of other complicated programs should be implemented at the same time. Not one of them may be delayed much longer. The most essential project will be the need to transform consciousness, to overcome many accepted dogmas and habits, and to renounce the myths that guide our life to a large extent. It will be necessary to show readiness for sacrifices (not human ones, of course) in the name of ensuring our descendants, the entire world community, and the planet as a habitat. A great many steps will affect the interests of different groups. It follows that people will accept what needs to be done only on the basis of an objective appraisal of the world situation. Energetic fulfillment of the programs is possible only in periods of relative calm, in the absence of global clashes. Since the necessity of dramatic changes in the life of the world is not questioned, we should begin making preparations for them in advance, charting out variants of plans and programs, setting up educational institutions, altering the orientation of the media and works of art, and so on. There is a need to choose participants in the projects, training and educating promising young people as was done, for instance, in the past century in the best educational centers of some of the leading countries when the survival of the state depended on the level of scientific and technical advancement. One of the most concrete steps for launching the movement will be a broad propaganda campaign, training activists who are aware of the problem and are ready to join in the work. It will be necessary to intensify the work when the moment is right. Given how things were in the past century, it is probably safe to assume that periods of upheaval and calm will alternate. Mankind cannot afford any more delays, as the situation may worsen or even become irreversible. Probably there will be many who will agree that the measures listed above (or similar ones) are necessary for civilization's maintenance. However, the main thing is to accept these measures not only passively, but rather to start promoting them actively, spending time, effort, and resources on them. This runs counter to our habitual goals and life standards: everyone, and society as a whole, is already busy with present-day problems. Very intense efforts are required for changing the way of life and today's activities70. The ruling circles (at least in the developed countries) are well aware of the danger of the growing crisis. Nevertheless, the approach of hushing things up has been employed so far. This is probably because they fear to lose their present comfortable positions and partly because the problem does not appear to have any simple solutions. Of course, if planning is limited to 10-15 years, as is most often the case, both the tasks and the methods are completely different. For example, Russia and a number of developed countries are now looking for ways to stimulate population growth, while on the global scale mankind is confronting overpopulation. The security of a number of countries rests upon their nuclear arsenals, while the global-scale task is complete and general disarmament. A very high level of understanding of the long-term problems is required in order to overcome the contradiction between the near-term and the long-term goals. It needs to be realized that action in the given areas is much more important than the solution of problems of the sort we are used to. Observance of the new norms may have to be forced on some groups of the population71.
69 Sustainable development projects have been proposed by many thinkers who address the problems facing our civilization and its future. For instance, Ervin Laszlo lists the following goals and imperatives of our time: Think globally, act responsibly; Create a new culture of entrepreneurship; Bring the understanding of mankind's pressing problems on the part of political leaders to a higher level; Respect the moral code of environmental protection and preservation; Create a culture of coexistence; and Develop our individual and collective consciousness. 70 "Who and in what units would measure the inertia of a ship the name of which is 'mankind'? It is loaded heavily with the age-old traditions and deeply rooted psychological stereotypes. The acknowledgment of the hazard endangering the future generations (our great-grandchildren, maybe even our grandchildren) should arm mankind with the decisiveness it is presently lacking" (Before Civilization's Main Challenge). 71 At moments when radical changes of state or national policy are required, the country's ruling elite and government should assume, for example, a line of behavior similar to that assumed by John F. Kennedy at a moment when U.S. technological backwardness in certain fields endangered the security of the state. His Special Address to Congress on the Importance of Space in 1961 stated that "I am asking Congress and the

Chapter 18 267

Of course, a person may always set him or herself the task of making his or her own life comfortable, without giving a thought to later generations, and the current mode of behavior works just fine in such instances. On the other hand, it will involve continuing natural disasters, death from starvation and in local conflicts, and accruing loss of life in the advanced countries because of the mounting aggressiveness of those who have lagged behind. As the US Central Intelligence Agency and National Intelligence Council put it in "Global Trends 2015: a Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernment Experts" (SIPRI Yearbook 2003), "countries and groups feeling left behind will face deepening economic stagnation, political instability, and cultural alienation. They will foster political, ethnic, ideological, and religious extremism, along with the violence that often accompanies it." Terrorist acts, the riots in France in late 2005, and other episodes are dramatic examples of this. Some groups may prefer the scenario described in the subchapter "Pessimistic Scenarios of the Future" (Chapter 17): why bother with restriction of consumption, apportioning of Earth's resources, and spending decades on difficult programs to save civilization when a simpler way exists: the use of military force to take over on a global scale and install the rule of the Golden Billion or something of a similar nature? The idea of world supremacy has tempted many a leader in the past. Now that the planet is becoming more cramped and dangerous, the temptation may prove to be too strong to resist. In the meantime, there exist several powerful forces, enclaves, and groups in the world, and conquering them all without the risk of the total extinction of life is hardly possible. In other words, the circumstances themselves dictate the necessity of making an agreement with everyone and proceeding together along the path of peaceful, stable, and controllable development.

"The process of transition will bring people face to face with opposition the forces existing and thriving on violence. They include those who benefit from the culture of killing economically, politically, or psychologically," as Glenn Paige, the founder and president of the Center for Global Nonviolence, expressed it. In the opinion of Ervin Laszlo, one of the difficulties associated with the new mindset's development and dissemination lies in its inevitable opposition to the dominant paradigm. It is likely that alliances with Greenpeace, pacifist organizations, peaceful religions, and other groups that are aware of the gravity of the situation and are prepared to work on its amelioration will be needed. History knows examples of religions and ideologies sweeping across the face of the planet. It took them hundreds of years, which is certainly more time than we have now. The pace of installation and acceptance of new ideas and concepts is determined to a large extent by how intensive the demand for them is. This is how things stand: in order to concentrate on the suggested programs, mankind needs the understanding that their implementation (or implementation of similar projects) offers the only chance of survival. Unfortunately, a broad understanding of the existence of the problem is lacking. It will be wrong to rule out the possibility that only new cataclysms with great losses of life will result in mankind finally seeing the light and setting about correcting the existing trends.

As Alice Ann Bailey wrote in 1954 in Education in the New Age, "It is bridging work which has now to be done bridging between what is today and what can be in the future. If we develop this technique of bridging the many cleavages found in the human family and in offsetting the racial hatreds and the separate attitudes of nations and people, we shall have succeeded in implementing a world in which war will be impossible and mankind will be realizing itself as one human family and not as a fighting aggregate of many nations and people, competitively engaged in getting the best of each other and successfully fostering prejudices and hatred. This has, as we have seen, been the history of the past. Man has been developed from an isolated animal, prompted only by the instincts of self-preservation, eating, and mating, through the stages of family life, tribal life and national life to the point where today a still broader ideal is grasped by him international unity or the smooth functioning of the One Mankind It is difficult for modern man to conceive of a time when there will be no racial, national or separate religious consciousness present in human thinking It will be obvious that very many decades must elapse before such a state of affairs will be actively present but it will be decades and not centuries, if mankind can learn the lessons of war" Contributing to the proposed activities is the fact that there is much in the present-day world that brings people together and makes them interdependent. These are, apart from economic globalization, the formation of political and administrative alliances joint efforts in combating diseases and epidemics and protecting the environment (al though these are not active enough at present), in improving transportation and communication systems, and in putting joint crews of astronauts into orbit. There are mutual aid and rescue efforts in the wake of disasters, and there are also studies of weather, asteroidal dangers, and other natural phenomena. Progress in these fields is necessary for all nations, and combined efforts alone can bring results. Harmonization of educational systems, the equalization of curricula and diplomas, and other projects are under way. Lunar and Martian expeditions may be launched in the decades to come, and they will probably be interna-

country to accept a firm commitment to a new course of action a course which will last for many years and carry very heavy costs... This decision demands ... material and facilities, and ... a degree of dedication, organization and discipline which have not always characterized our research and development efforts."

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

268

tional. It is obvious that the development of science and knowledge has long been restricted within the limits of the old international relations. Joint research and efforts aimed at preventing risk are incompatible with restrictions on the borders, with opposition between ideologies and religions and with militarism and military conflict. Neither is progress facilitated by the excessive secrecy imposed by the rivaling countries as well as all the rest "just in case" (here we are not questioning the need for copyright protection). Scientific, medical, and frequently social achievements become res communis; many a cultural and athletic event becomes an event of global importance, watched by millions of spectators. Joint projects, action, and experience bring people together and help them recognize themselves as citizens of a common world community. Practice breaks old barriers down. It is true that there is no formulated strategy of survival today. Moreover, very little is being done to seek one out. Isolated statements are made, studies conducted, manifestos and charters adopted, organizations and commissions established, books published (including this one), and conferences and UN events take place, with little to show for it in terms of adequacy to the seriousness of the problem. A certain feeling of respite came about in the world community for a short time following the end of the Cold War. The short period of calm now being over, life is once again taking place on in accordance with the formula "aggravations on a world scale occur regularly, at an internal of several dozens of years." After coming out unhurt, half by accident, from the Cold War, mankind is now facing a tidal wave of terrorism and exacerbation of conflicts involving communities from the Islamic world. If one attentively looks at the contradictions which exist in the modern world, he will see that some of them have a potential of developing into military conflicts and mankind will once again face the question of refraining from the use of means of destruction and, thus, saving civilization. The proposals cited above are in a certain sense a continuation of the old Utopian concept of building a just human society. Missionaries of the major religions, Utopian socialists, and pacifist movements have always promoted a peaceful, conflict-free vision of the existence of mankind. The problems of preservation and existence without wars have always been pressing, but it is clear that these ideas and slogans have defied practically all attempts to put them into practice. Mankind has by and large moving toward ever-more-vicious conflicts incurring ever-greater loss of life. The 20th century set a record in loss of life, and mankind was on the brink of self-destruction on several occasions. The means for doing this exist (and the process of making them increasingly destructive continues). The time when one could limit oneself just to talk and dreams has gone; it is time for action. In principle, the goal is attainable. Reason should take the upper hand over apathy of some, the rapacity of others, and the incomprehension of yet more. The 20th century is often referred to as a warning century; the 21st century should become, accordingly, a century of a turning point, a change in outlook, an assertion of a new style of life, an age of nonviolence and tolerance. Compromise, unification, mutual assistance and the old commandment "Thou Shalt Not Kill," given new life today, should become the principal world ideas. Of course, a painstaking effort will be required to develop a different lifestyle that would support a lasting and durable existence for humanity. What needs to be done to avoid future conflicts between different groups of people, between mankind and nature or between mankind and some cosmic phenomena, such as cataclysms in space or perhaps interactions with extraterrestrial living beings? Which supra-national governing bodies need to be established to address these issues? How do we combine further studies of nature with regulation and restraint of the potentially destructive forces that may be uncovered and gotten hold of? How do we interact with the new, almost live (at least, rational) objects which are likely to be created in research laboratories? Various religions and ideologies attempted creating stable systems for humanity to be fit into and live in. It is the resolution of this fundamental problem that is poised to crown our efforts to save the future.

Conclusions

269

Conclusions
n their hopes for a better future, people often proceed from the assumption that there is an ultimate goal for humanity and that we are destined for a prosperous and happy life. This thought is rooted not only in our congenital optimism but is also based on the knowledge we have about nature, Earth and the Universe. Until recently, it was believed that life on our planet, particularly its highly organized forms, is a unique phenomenon, one of a kind, and that it originated from inanimate matter as a result of an extremely low-probability turn of events or by the effect of supernatural forces. Other celestial bodies, star systems and galaxies are clusters of inanimate matter; their evolution and cataclysms have nothing in common with life or the evolution of animals and plants. There was a time when Earth was thought to be the center of the Universe. It was believed that the origin of man was the sole purpose the world was created for. It was difficult to imagine that such a unique phenomenon as human race with all its fantastic achievements might disappear from the face of the Earth. The talk of imminent apocalypse was basically limited to the domain of religion, while materialists did not tend to take such threats seriously. However, the latest data indicate that the probability is high that life is widespread in the Universe. Traces of organic molecules have been found in meteorites and comets, which supports the hypothesis that these traveling celestial objects may be carriers of life across the Universe (the theory of panspermia). Complex organisms have been found on the ocean floor, without oxygen or solar heat. The miracle of evolution generates organisms with surprising adaptability, such intricate living beings displaying a variety of behavior patterns, which serves to prove the possibility of broad occurrence of life in very different environmental conditions. The probability is high that in some faraway worlds life may have taken other forms we cannot even imagine. It is not a surprise that it is hypothesized that other living beings possessing an intellect and cognitive nature may exist somewhere in the Universe (SETI). However, the question arises as to why we have not received any verifiable information about them. After all, the Universe is many billions of years old, and other worlds could have appeared earlier and sent messages about themselves. Was it the mastery of the mighty forces of nature that led these civilizations to collapse? It is most probable that information about other civilizations may have reached our planet at times when there were no rational beings here capable of receiving and reading it. Perhaps information is still on its way and will reach our planet later. By analogy with the Earth, it is possible to presume that rational beings may appear elsewhere in the Universe only after billions of years of evolution. If the lifetime of a civilization of rational beings is limited to, say, thousands or even millions of years, the probability of a "contact window" for different civilizations in the Universe will be negligibly small. This is because a civilization's lifetime is only a small fraction of a percentage compared to the duration of evolution (see Appendix 1). It is, therefore, quite probable that we are just one of numerous sprouts of life that appear and perish in the Universe. It is known that, however intricate evolution is, it cannot guarantee survival for any plant or animal species. Therefore, unless we want to leave our fate to the mercy of chance, it is only our mind, our power to analyze the situation and manage our own development that may help us to preserve ourselves for a long time to come. Although the author of this book is a proponent of a materialistic view of the world, the conclusion that follows from the analysis of the civilization's developmental trends, particularly those of contemporary history, is, in a certain sense, close to the views of the future characteristic of a number of the world's main religions. I am speaking of the worst scenario, in which our civilization dies in a cataclysm, or the "end of the world." However, unlike the Biblical predictions of imminent apocalypse, I believe that we are able to change the course of events and make a transition toward sustainable development. Means for survival are summarized in five projects in the final chapter of this book, and some of the ideas expressed there almost fully coincide with Biblical Commandments. (This coincidence is not all too surprising: After all, religions have absorbed both the humanity's experience and much common sense and simple truth). It is obviously senseless to compete in making increasingly detailed forecasts for the future. The task lies not in guessing which variant of the future would eventually actualize itself, but in finding ways to control the development of our civilization and curb undesired trends. The purpose of this book is to show how such understanding and adequate action are important. Mankind has experience in solving complicated organizational and technical problems. Now this experience should be brought to bear to solve the most pressing problem of our time. The effort will probably itself generate new inventive and nonstandard approaches. We should not forget that the later we proceed with active work on the problem, the narrower will be the choice of remaining options. We can no longer afford the habitual confrontational approach that leads to wars and use of the newest means of destruction.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

270

Not waiting, but preventing should be our motto if we really want to avert the threat of self-destruction. Either we take this motto for guidance and start working in this direction, or we risk facing the realization of one of the worst, tragic scenarios of our civilization's future. Practically the only way to preserve our civilization is to exclude the possibility of global conflicts in the future, i.e., to eliminate both their causes and means. In concluding this book, I would like to note that the abundance of information available on the subject and the diversity of the subject itself prevented me from incorporating everything I deemed interesting and worthwhile and forced me to limit myself to a somewhat ascetic presentation of material. This book is an attempt at presenting a multifaceted picture, a panoramic view of the present-day world in its development, and at outlining the principal measures that need to be taken to preserve life on the planet, supported with quotes from eminent people who tackled the problem. The author of this book tried to put together the most graphic and indicative facts and data to characterize each facet and phenomenon of modern life. I would like to hope that the book will stimulate discussions on the current status of human civilization and will give an impetus to active work directed at ensuring sustainable development of human civilization. It is highly desirable that a right shift in public attitudes and mindset should occur before a next large catastrophe breaks out claiming millions of human lives.

Final comments 271

Final Comments
What Is Happening to Our Planet? Over billions of years of evolution, primitive creatures transformed into sophisticated organisms, the last few millions of years having given the world the crown of creation - human beings. It was not until recently that we have acquired a better understanding of nature, learned to design fabulous machines, and seemed to have grown "wiser." Many have even begun to live four times longer than primitive people did. Nevertheless, people have begun to increasingly use the riches of nature and intensively transform (and pollute) the environment. It is true that there is enough wealth on the Earth to last for the next 50-100 (or 150) years. But how about those who will come next? Are we expected to show concern about them, or should we leave them to the mercy of fate? Beside, there are enormously destructive weapons in our possession while we have not yet learned to live without wars. There are nuclear, chemical, and bacteriological weapons. In the hot-tempered atmosphere of a conflict, their use becomes very likely. Experts also predict the appearance of even more dangerous weapons that will be very difficult to detect or control. Since the middle of the last century, much has been written about possible dramatic futures, and ways of stopping the sad march of events have been explored. One would think that our intellectual capacities, consciousness, and ability to make remarkable discoveries should help us find ways of surviving. These problems are the subject of this book. The book contains descriptions of various aspects of life that have plunged mankind into a grim situation at the beginning of the third millennium. The author tries to find an answer to the perennial question "what is to be done?" and puts forth programs that may help save our civilization or, as they say today, ensure its sustainable development.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

272

Appendix 1

Civilizations in the Universe. A Version

TO THE PROBLEM OF SEARCH OF EXTRATERRESTRIAL INTELLIGENCE ccording to the available scientific data, the Universe appeared about 13.7 billion years ago as a result of a very strange phenomenon called the Big Bang. First there was a diffuse substance, which formed into clusters and then into burning hot stars and relatively cold planets1. On one such planet, the Earth, water and continents appeared about 4 billion years ago, and conditions on its surface became suitable to support life. In all likelihood, life originated from organic substances that were brought to Earth by meteorites or comets. (We do not know where or how these organic substances were initially formed, as we cannot fully comprehend the nature of the Big Bang itself.) According to another hypothesis, life on our planet originated from molecules that formed in extreme conditions related to volcanic activities. First, life appeared in the most primitive form. Organic molecules gradually grew more and more complicated, changing their structure adapting to changing environment, and thus the long path of evolution began2. Over the next thousands and millions of generations, the structures of these organisms underwent fundamental changes. Finally, the time around 500 million years ago came for animals, and then the primates, to appear on the stage. The main driving force behind evolution was the struggle for survival, in which organisms needed to acquire new abilities and characteristics so that their offspring had advantages. Evolution was absolutely merciless to those who were weaker or less adept, or bred more slowly, or lacked other critical survival qualities. In the course of evolution, organisms had to acquire and preserve characteristics and abilities that would give them necessary advantages and help them win at each and every stage. Otherwise, how would it be possible to traverse the lengthy path from bacteria to complex organisms? (In this essay I will not discuss the mechanisms of genetic code changes, mutations and adaptation to environmental conditions, changes in behavior, appearance of new functional organs, etc.). In the last millions of years, the primates, our ancestors, acquired a bigger brain, consciousness, speech, and, finally, intelligence and thus did homo sapiens emerge on the scene. Then civilization appeared, giving impetus to the development of science and mastery of the mighty forces of the nature. (It is, however, unclear if homo sapiens possesses sufficient intelligence to preserve itself as a species and last for long time). "We are like a spark in the darkness; we appeared for a quick moment out of the black nonbeing of the unconscious existence of matter," quoted from Andrei Sakharov. It follows from the above that those who made it to the apex of the evolution pyramid cannot but possess the qualities of the very best fighters, who are often aggressive and fierce3. This is confirmed by civilizations history, which is a chain of wars with a death toll of millions and millions of people (not even to mention that it appears that cannibalism was the norm in the primitive epoch). The necessity to stand up in the never-ending struggle for survival prompted man to invent more and more sophisticated weapons. Finally, weapons were invented capable of wiping civilization from the face of the Earth. By the 1980s, the nuclear arsenals accumulated on the planet contained 70,000 H-bombs, while it is enough to explode 5,000-7,000 such bombs to cause a "nuclear winter" that would effectively end all life on the planet; it is difficult to say for how many years such a "nuclear winter" would render our planet unsuitable for life. No less dangerous are the chemical and biological weapons, as well as other means of mass destruction, information about which leaks into the mass media from time to time. Many thousands of bombs are ready for use today. It cannot be ruled out that one day a global conflict may break out that or the deadly arsenals might be detonated by an extremist or a careless ruler. Will our civilization manage to survive such a scenario? As a result, it may happen that, following a not very long, but very spectacular, period (several thousand years of civilization and some more years of supercivilization4, nature may return to its original, primitive state. If this
1 The primordial gas and dust cloud was compressed for billions of years by the force of gravity. The bulk of the matter in the center was compacted so tightly that a thermonuclear reaction began. This is how the Sun was born. Smaller clusters formed from the remains of the cloud became the planets of the Solar System. 2 Over 99% of the species which existed on the Earth had become extinct before homo sapiens appeared. 3 As the struggle for survival, resources, continuation of the race, territory, etc, became increasingly fierce, the Earth's inhabitants developed ways of suppressing, subduing or even eliminating other creatures, including their fellows. Such ways of behavior proved to be more effective for survival. It is therefore not surprising that people are often more active in a state of fury and rage and that people demonstrate a morbidly high interest in brutalities. 4 The present level of science and technology achieved in a certain part of the world is also characterized by such terms as postindustrial society or information society.

Appendix 1

273

"short-lived structure" collapses, then, most likely, everything will start again from the beginning a long path of evolution toward new rational living beings. (However, next time the way may be shorter, because the entire path from protein molecules need not be traversed. Dolphins or other animals that survive the cataclysm may acquire intelligence, as it had once happened to the primates: It took them "only" several million years to develop their brain and become intelligent). It is obvious that the threats facing our civilization are rooted largely in that virtually no progress has been achieved over the last several thousand years in building relations and finding ways to resolve conflicts, and now the human mentality is absolutely inadequate to the means of destruction at the mankind's disposal. The destructive power accumulated by the human species has increased by millions, even billions of times. Just compare an ancient warrior with a sword and a present-day military man with his finger on the button, the pressing of which will detonate megatons of explosives and kill millions. With the progress of science and natural studies, we have come to the point of asking the question about the possible existence of other civilizations. What proposals or hypotheses can we make based on our experience and the available data from space exploration? Is it possible to detect other rational beings in the Universe and establish contact with them? It is believed that evolutionary processes similar to those that took place on the Earth can also take place on other planets where conditions are suitable for the appearance and development of life. And there, too, protein molecules brought from somewhere may give a start to evolution. Here it is appropriate to recall that there are tens of billions of stars in our galaxy, the Milky Way, and there are more than one hundred billion galaxies in the Universe. Methods for finding planets in remote star systems have been actively developed recently; over 20 new planets are discovered every year. More than 350 extrasolar planets have been discovered to date. However, most of these planets are apparently unsuitable for life. Probability is high that with new, enhanced methods, it will soon become possible to find planets similar to the one we live on. Perhaps the Kepler Mission launched in March 2009 will help achieve some success in this direction. Until recently, planet detection was limited to our galaxy, i.e. within the range of tens of thousands of light years, but the most recent reports allege that a planet has been detected as far as 2.5 million light years away from the Earth. Many stars may have planets with conditions suitable for evolution similar to the one which took place on the Earth, not to mention the possibility of existence of different forms of life. Studying the laws of evolution here on the Earth, we find out that it can develop in seemingly impossible conditions: Living organisms are found in different media (even in acids), in the absence of solar heat, in a very wide range of temperatures, and deep inside the Earth. Another important feature of evolution is its ability to give rise to increasingly complex organisms, with rational beings appearing at a certain stage. Based on our knowledge about the Universe, it can be argued that conditions suitable for life may have formed on different planets at different times after the Big Bang, probably several billion years before or after such conditions formed on the Earth. There are many galaxies where we can see very different stages of the evolution of nebular matter. On "lucky" planets (where conditions are suitable for life) rational beings and civilizations could develop within several billion years. Thinking similarly, we can presume that rational beings, if they appear, would make instruments to explore the sky and weapons to fight with each other5. Many situations and tendencies in the development of extraterrestrial organisms might be very much like ours. (As was noted above, certain tendencies are determined by the laws of evolution). However, if instability is the immanent feature of a civilization of rational beings, the prospects for interplanetary contacts might be poor. In addition to the fact that wars have been abundant in our own history, there is another consideration that gives little optimism: The means to make us noticeable to other civilizations and the means of destroying ourselves appeared almost simultaneously, in the previous century. All appeared at once: On the one hand, radio signals, powerful explosions, and atmospheric emissions are sending messages about our existence, while on the other hand, there are numerous weapons of mass destruction, enough for mankind to commit suicide. The same epoch saw the invention of instruments to observe faraway planets. Both technological achievements the means of observation and means of destruction required nearly the same level of knowledge and intelligence. What a phenomenal coincidence: After 4 billion years of evolution, it took a short moment (less than one hundred years) for the presence of rational beings on the Earth to become visible from the outside, and simultaneously the human race acquired means of self-destruction. Historical studies and prospects for the human race lead us to conclude that the existence of rational beings and their civilizations might be limited to a historically brief period. For how long can we expect human civilization to
There have been speculations about intelligent matter existing in such forms as an ocean (Stanislaw Lem) or mildew (Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Andrey Kolmogorov), although it is hard to imagine a civilization that has no tools, means of transportation or communication.
5

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

274

last? If our civilization lasts for several thousands (even tens of thousands) of years, it will be only a quick moment compared to the whole period of existence of life on the planet. Who in the Universe will be able to catch such a short (by cosmic standards) message? Information about us travels through space at the speed of light, which means it will reach other worlds in thousands or even millions or billions of years. Will there be anyone there at that moment to receive and read our "message"? Reciprocally: Will a message from another civilization happen to reach the Earth at exactly the time in which we have already built (but have not yet destroyed) radio telescopes and other sophisticated instrumentation? Figure 1 illustrates the simplest example, where there are two similar planets which formed at one and the same time and where evolution of living beings proceeded in similar patterns and on a similar time scale (some items in the figure are not shown to scale). Rational beings and civilizations on these planets would appear in approximately 4 billion years. Obviously, information (radio signals, etc.) emitted from one planet reaches the other planet in the time equal to the distance between the two planets expressed in light-years. In the figure, this is time = 300,000 years. It might happen that, by the time when signals about our civilization reach the other planet, there will be nobody living there to receive them. As was already noted above, a civilization is unlikely to last for 300,000 years or more. (Meant here is a civilization developed to a level similar to our present-day level, i.e. what we called a supercivilization above). A more generalized case is illustrated in Figs. 2 and 2a. Planets are born at different locations in the Universe at different times, and life may emerge on some of them. The evolution of living organisms may take different periods of time, ranging from a few billions to hundreds of millions of years. The most important question here is for how long the resulting rational beings will manage to last. If the laws of development are similar, it cannot be ruled out that at a certain moment all civilizations will face the threat of self-destruction. Figure 2 graphically illustrates the likely correlation between the time of evolution and the lifetime of a civilization. As it follows from the above, the most dangerous period is that of supercivilization, that is, when powerful means of destruction, like nuclear weapons, are created. As I said earlier, the main question is whether a civilization is able to avoid a large-scale use of weapons of mass destruction, and to live, while possessing such weapons, for a long time. After all, there is plenty of knowledge and the resources (if we look at the neighboring planets) needed by a civilization to last for a long time. The primary concerns include creating the right system of organization, behavior, mentality, and other things described above. I want to reiterate that many millions of civilizations probably exist in the Universe and that there is still a chance, albeit a slight one, that a meaningful signal from one of them might, after many light-years, reach another planet at a moment when living rational beings capable of receiving the message are present there. The chance will be the slighter the longer the distance between the planets, because the signal intensity decays as the square of distance plus losses caused by absorption. The intensity of message signals from remote zones of the Universe has to be comparable with the light intensity of stars we are able to detect with the help of the instruments at our disposal. Considering the factors described above, we must conclude that receiving signal messages from other civilizations is a very unlikely event, although civilizations might well exist at many locations throughout the Universe. I want to note once again that my pessimism is based largely on the conclusion that only those types of living beings for which struggle for survival and conflicts occupy a significant place in life are capable of going through all the stags of evolution and reaching the heights of intelligence. At least, this conclusion follows from the experience of our planet. How can they survive with such a mentality? They will become rational and intelligent, but go on fighting, using more and more sophisticated and powerful weapons. Our sole hope lies with the human race becoming aware of the danger and managing to achieve a radical change in the pattern of behavior. How many civilizations in the Universe manage to do such? Why isn't it possible for us to have an optimistic scenario for our civilization realized here on this planet? Becoming aware of the dangers facing our civilization, "coming to senses," changing our ways of life, ceasing to wage wars, laying destructive weapons down, and living for a long time? But how can we acknowledge this, and how can we accomplish this? One of many possible scenarios is described in the book. If we only manage to pull through the present "explosive" era, will it then be possible to develop a path forward toward a sustainable and peaceful life? In any case, we cannot know at this point how long (thousands or millions of years) a developed civilization can last, provided that it is actively exploring and cognizing the mysteries of nature, even if it succeeds in taking a peaceful path and becomes capable of standing up to catastrophes on a cosmic scale. Of course, all what was said above does not apply to primitive forms of life, i.e., those devoid of intelligence. The latter are apparently able to exist in a wide range of conditions and last for billions of years; as we already know, complex organic molecules, which can be called "germs of life," can survive even on asteroids and comets for billions of years. After all, they are not clever enough to annihilate the celestial object that gives them a home.

Appendix 1

275

The "to be or not to be" dilemma is faced by those civilizations that have managed to get control over mighty destructive forces. In summing up, I would like to note that, despite all the above pessimistic conclusions, it cannot be ruled out that some other, fundamentally different and unimaginable for the human brain, evolutionary scenarios yielding different outcomes could be realized on some of the Universe's numerous planets. Another chance for a community of rational beings to survive on a planet for a longer time is a rebirth after a collapse. Forearmed with this information, a community of intelligent beings would be able to take timely measures to ensure self-preservation. The main thing as far as preserving civilization is concerned is to overcome and pass through the period of crisis in which old forms of consciousness and manners of behavior passed down from evolution and the period of barbarism are still retained, while in our hands we have weapons of mass destruction. "What will happen earlier: A suicidal massacre or mankind's shift into a qualitatively new state a one where massacre becomes senseless and absolutely impossible," Igor Bestuzhev-Lada wrote. In an ideal situation, the existence of civilization will depend upon the lifetime of the mother star (analogous to the Sun). For our Earth, this is several billion years, and if one can imagine that a rational civilization could endure for so long, it is possible to think that it will be able to migrate to another solar system with acceptable conditions. Now, a final thought. If a species of rational creatures manages to last for a very long time, enough for its message to be received by another civilization, it will hardly be possible to arrange for a conversation and exchange information between the two, for the simple reason that a signal (which travels at the speed of light) will take thousands or even millions of years to travel between these two planets. We repeat that all these conclusions are drawn on the basis of the available contemporary scientific data.
Protected by copyright law. Certificate No 11173 of December 26, 2006 Also, see video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixI-mHeklyk

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

276

Another planet (similar to Earth)

=300,000 years

Distance, light years

Distance: 300,000 light years

Information Information from the reaches the other Earth planet after the
period of time equal to (when rational beings might not be there any longer)

Earth
0.5 billion years

Information to the Earth

Evolution about 4 billion years

Civilization lifetime Appearance of rational beings

Birth of planets

Start of evolution

Time

Fig. 1. Example of evolution of two simultaneously developing planets

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

277

1 bill.light years

Other (faraway) planets where civilizations have appeared

Distance, billion light years

Earth's trajectory in time

| -6

| -5

| -4

| -3

| -2

| -1

| 0

Time,
billion years

Fig. 2. Green lines show spread of information about civilizations in the Universe.

__________________________________________________________________|
Fig. 2 Relative lifetime of a civilization as compared to the overall time of evolution. Pink line depicts the approximate period of evolution which is several billion years. Lifetime of a civilization corresponds to less than the thickness of the green bar on the right. Therefore, the period of time when information about the existence of rational beings can be emitted into the outer space is only about 10-510-4 % of the period required for evolution; in view of that, it is obvious that the probability of a civilization receiving information emitted by another civilization is negligible.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

278

Appendix 2

The Einstein-Freud Correspondence

(selected excerpts)

Why War? "Open letters" between Einstein & Freud, The New Commonwealth, No. 6, 1934.

The correspondence was initiated under the proposal of the League of Nations in the situation of the physically felt escalation of the Pan-European psychosis which led the Nazis to power in Germany and, eventually, to World War II.
Einstein to Freud July 30, 1932 Dear Professor Freud: The proposal of the League of Nations and its International Institute of Intellectual Co-operation at Paris that I should invite a person, to be chosen by myself, to a frank exchange of views on any problem that I might select affords me a very welcome opportunity of conferring with you upon a question which, as things now are, seems the most insistent of all the problems civilization has to face. This is the problem: Is there any way of delivering mankind from the menace of war? It is common knowledge that, with the advance of modern science, this issue has come to mean a matter of life and death for Civilization as we know it; nevertheless, for all the zeal displayed, every attempt at its solution has ended in a lamentable breakdown. I believe, moreover, that those whose duty it is to tackle the problem professionally and practically are growing only too aware of their impotence to deal with it, and have now a very lively desire to learn the views of men who, absorbed in the pursuit of science, can see world problems in the perspective distance lends. As for me, the normal objective of my thought affords no insight into the dark places of human will and feeling. Thus, in the inquiry now proposed, I can do little more than to seek to clarify the question at issue and, clearing the ground of the more obvious solutions, enable you to bring the light of your far-reaching knowledge of man's instinctive life to bear upon the problem. There are certain psychological obstacles whose existence a layman in the mental sciences may dimly surmise, but whose interrelations and vagaries he is incompetent to fathom; you, I am convinced, will be able to suggest educative methods, lying more or less outside the scope of politics, which will eliminate these obstacles. As one immune from nationalist bias, I personally see a simple way of dealing with the superficial (i.e., administrative) aspect of the problem: the setting up, by international consent, of a legislative and judicial body to settle every conflict arising between nations. Each nation would undertake to abide by the orders issued by this legislative body, to invoke its decision in every dispute, to accept its judgments unreservedly and to carry out every measure the tribunal deems necessary for the execution of its decrees. But here, at the outset, I come up against a difficulty; a tribunal is a human institution which, in proportion as the power at its disposal is inadequate to enforce its verdicts, is all the more prone to suffer these to be deflected by extrajudicial pressure. This is a fact with which we have to reckon; law and might inevitably go hand in hand, and juridical decisions approach more nearly the ideal justice demanded by the community (in whose name and interests these verdicts are pronounced) insofar as the community has effective power to compel respect of its juridical ideal. But at present we are far from possessing any supranational organization competent to render verdicts of incontestable authority and enforce absolute submission to the execution of its verdicts. Thus I am led to my first axiom: The quest of international security involves the unconditional surrender by every nation, in a certain measure, of its liberty of action its sovereignty that is to say--and it is clear beyond all doubt that no other road can lead to such security. The ill success, despite their obvious sincerity, of all the efforts made during the last decade to reach this goal leaves us no room to doubt that strong psychological factors are at work which paralyze these efforts. Some of these factors are not far to seek. The craving for power which characterizes the governing class in every nation is hostile to any limitation of the national sovereignty. This political power hunger is often supported by the activities of another group, whose aspirations are on purely mercenary, economic lines. I have especially in mind that small but determined group, active in every nation, composed of individuals who, indif-

Attachment 2

279

ferent to social considerations and restraints, regard warfare, the manufacture and sale of arms, simply as an occasion to advance their personal interests and enlarge their personal authority. Another question follows hard upon it: How is it possible for this small clique to bend the will of the majority, who stand to lose and suffer by a state of war, to the service of their ambitions. (Saying "majority" I do not exclude the military of any rank, those who chose war for their profession and who believe that they are defending supreme interests of their race and that attack is the best form of defense.) An obvious answer to this question would seem to be that the minority, the ruling class at present, has the schools and press, usually the Church as well, under its thumb. This enables it to organize and sway the emotions of the masses, and makes its tool of them. Another question arises from it: How is it that these devices succeed so well in rousing men to such wild enthusiasm, even to sacrifice their lives? Only one answer is possible. Because man has within him a lust for hatred and destruction. In normal times this passion exists in a latent state, it emerges only in unusual circumstances. And so we come to our last question. Is it possible to control man's mental evolution so as to make him proof against the psychosis of hate and destructiveness? Here I am thinking by no means only of the socalled uncultured masses. Experience proves that it is rather the so-called "intelligentsia" that is most apt to yield to these disastrous collective suggestions. To conclude: I have so far been speaking only of wars between nations; what are known as international conflicts. But I am well aware that the aggressive instinct operates under other forms and in other circumstances. (I am thinking of civil wars, for instance, due in earlier days to religious zeal, but nowadays to social factors; or, again, the persecution of racial minorities.) I know that in your writings we may find answers, explicit or implied, to all the issues of this urgent and absorbing problem. But it would be of the greatest service to us all were you to present the problem of world peace in the light of your most recent discoveries, for such a presentation well might blaze the trail for new and fruitful modes of action. Yours very sincerely, A. Einstein Freud to Einstein September 1932 Dear Mr. Einstein: When I learned of your intention to invite me to a mutual exchange of views upon a subject which not only interested you personally but seemed deserving, too, of public interest, I cordially assented. Thus the question which you put me what is to be done to rid mankind of the war menace? took me by surprise. How can a psychologist answer the question about the prevention of wars? You begin with the relations between might and right, and this is assuredly the proper starting point for our inquiry. Conflicts of interest between man and man are resolved, in principle, by the recourse to violence. It is the same in the animal kingdom, from which man cannot claim exclusion; nevertheless, men are also prone to conflicts of opinion, touching, on occasion, the loftiest peaks of abstract thought, which seem to call for settlement by quite another method.. To start with, group force was the factor which, in small communities, decided points of ownership and the question which man's will was to prevail. Very soon physical force was implemented, then replaced, by the use of various adjuncts; he proved the victor whose weapon was the better, or handled the more skillfully. Now, for the first time, with the coming of weapons, superior brains began to oust brute force, but the object of the conflict remained the same: one party was to be constrained, by the injury done him or impairment of his strength, to retract a claim or a refusal. This end is most effectively gained when the opponent is definitely put out of action in other words, is killed. This procedure has two advantages: the enemy cannot renew hostilities, and, secondly, his fate deters others from following his example. Moreover, the slaughter of a foe gratifies an instinctive craving a point to which we shall revert hereafter. Thus, under primitive conditions, it is superior force brute violence, or violence backed by arms that lords it everywhere. The situation is always complicated by the fact that, from the outset, the group includes elements of unequal power, men and women, elders and children, and, very soon, as a result of war and conquest, victors and the vanquished i.e., masters and slaves as well. From this time on the common law takes

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

280

notice of these inequalities of power, laws are made by and for the rulers, giving the servile classes fewer rights. Thenceforward there exist within the state two factors making for legal instability, but legislative evolution, too: first, the attempts by members of the ruling class to set themselves above the law's restrictions and, secondly, the constant struggle of the ruled to extend their rights and see each gain embodied in the code, replacing legal disabilities by equal laws for all. The second of these tendencies will be particularly marked when there takes place a positive mutation of the balance of power within the community, the frequent outcome of certain historical conditions. In such cases the laws may gradually be adjusted to the changed conditions or (as more usually ensues) the ruling class is loath to rush in with the new developments, the result being insurrections and civil wars, a period when law is in abeyance and force once more the arbiter, followed by a new regime of law. Thus we see that, even within the group itself, the exercise of violence cannot be avoided when conflicting interests are at stake. Yet the most casual glance at world history will show an unending series of conflicts between one community and another or a group of others, between large and smaller units, between cities, countries, races, tribes and kingdoms, almost all of which were settled by the ordeal of war. No single all-embracing judgment can be passed on these wars of aggrandizement. Some, like the war between the Mongols and the Turks, have led to unmitigated misery; others, however, have furthered the transition from violence to law, since they brought larger units into being, within whose limits a recourse to violence was banned and a new regime determined all disputes. Thus the Roman conquest brought that boon, the pax Romana, to the Mediterranean lands. The French kings' lust for aggrandizement created a new France, flourishing in peace and unity. Paradoxical as its sounds, we must admit that warfare well might serve to pave the way to that unbroken peace we so desire, for it is war that brings vast empires into being, within whose frontiers all warfare is proscribed by a strong central power. In practice, however, this end is not attained, for as a rule the fruits of victory are but short-lived, the new-created unit falls asunder once again, generally because there can be no true cohesion between the parts that violence has welded. Hitherto, moreover, such conquests have only led to aggregations which, for all their magnitude, had limits, and disputes between these units could be resolved only by recourse to arms. For humanity at large the sole result of all these military enterprises was that, instead of frequent, not to say incessant, little wars, they had now to face great wars which, for all they came less often, were so much the more destructive. Regarding the world of today the same conclusion holds good, and you, too, have reached it, though by a shorter path. There is but one sure way of ending war and that is the establishment, by common consent, of a central control which shall have the last word in every conflict of interests. For this, two things are needed: first, the creation of such a supreme court of judicature; secondly, its investment with adequate executive force. Unless this second requirement be fulfilled, the first is unavailing. Obviously the League of Nations, acting as a Supreme Court, fulfills the first condition; it does not fulfill the second. It has no force at its disposal and can only get it if the members of the new body, its constituent nations, furnish it. And, as things are, this is a forlorn hope. Still we should be taking a very shortsighted view of the League of Nations were we to ignore the fact that here is an experiment the like of which has rarely never before, perhaps, on such a scale--been attempted in the course of history. It is an attempt to acquire the authority (in other words, coercive influence), which hitherto reposed exclusively in the possession of power, by calling into play certain idealistic attitudes of mind. We have seen that there are two factors of cohesion in a community: violent compulsion and ties of sentiment ("identifications," in technical parlance) between the members of the group. If one of these factors becomes inoperative, the other may still suffice to hold the group together. Obviously such notions as these can only be significant when they are the expression of a deeply rooted sense of unity, shared by all. It is necessary, therefore, to gauge the efficacy of such sentiments. History tells us that, on occasion, they have been effective. For example, the Panhellenic conception, the Greeks' awareness of superiority over their barbarian neighbors, which found expression in the Amphictyonies, the Oracles and Games, was strong enough to humanize the methods of warfare as between Greeks, though inevitably it failed to prevent conflicts between different elements of the Hellenic race or even to deter a city or group of cities from joining forces with their racial foe, the Persians, for the discomfiture of a rival. The solidarity of Christendom in the Renaissance age was no more effective, despite its vast authority, in hindering Christian nations, large and small alike, from calling in the Sultan to their aid. And, in our times, we look in vain for some such unifying notion whose authority would be unquestioned. It is all too clear that the nationalistic ideas, paramount today in every country, operate in quite a contrary direction. Some there are who hold that the Bolshevik conceptions may make an end of war, but, as things are, that goal lies very far away and, perhaps, could only be attained after a spell of brutal internecine

Attachment 2

281

warfare. Thus it would seem that any effort to replace brute force by the might of an ideal is, under present conditions, doomed to fail. Our logic is at fault if we ignore the fact that right is founded on brute force and even today needs violence to maintain it. You are amazed that it is so easy to infect men with the war fever, and you surmise that man has in him an active instinct for hatred and destruction, amenable to such stimulations. I entirely agree with you. I believe in the existence of this instinct and have been recently at pains to study its manifestations. In this connection may I set out a fragment of that knowledge of the instincts, which we psychoanalysts, after so many tentative essays and gropings in the dark, have compassed? We assume that human instincts are of two kinds: those that conserve and unify, which we call "erotic," and, secondly, the instincts to destroy and kill, which we assimilate as the aggressive or destructive instincts. It seems that an instinct of either category can operate but rarely in isolation; it is always blended. Thus, when a nation is summoned to engage in war, a whole gamut of human motives may respond to this appeal--high and low motives, some openly avowed, others slurred over. The lust for aggression and destruction is certainly included; the innumerable cruelties of history and man's daily life confirm its prevalence and strength. The stimulation of these destructive impulses by appeals to idealism and the erotic instinct naturally facilitate their release. Musing on the atrocities recorded on history's page, we feel that the ideal motive has often served as a camouflage for the dust of destruction; sometimes, as with the cruelties of the Inquisition, it seems that, while the ideal motives occupied the foreground of consciousness, they drew their strength from the destructive instincts submerged in the unconscious. Both interpretations are feasible. You are interested, I know, in the prevention of war, not in our theories, and I keep this fact in mind. Yet I would like to dwell a little longer on this destructive instinct which is seldom given the attention that its importance warrants. With the least of speculative efforts we are led to conclude that this instinct functions in every living being, striving to work its ruin and reduce life to its primal state of inert matter. The death instinct becomes an impulse to destruction when, with the aid of certain organs, it directs its action outward, against external objects. The living being, that is to say, defends its own existence by destroying foreign bodies. Here is then the biological justification for all those vile, pernicious propensities which we are now combating. We can but own that they are really more akin to nature than this our stand against them, which, in fact, remains to be accounted for. The Bolsheviks, too, aspire to do away with human aggressiveness by insuring the satisfaction of material needs and enforcing equality between man and man. To me this hope seems vain. Meanwhile they busily perfect their armaments, and their hatred of outsiders is not the least of the factors of cohesion among themselves. All that brings out the significant resemblances between men calls into play this feeling of community, identification, whereon is founded, in large measure, the whole edifice of human society. In your strictures on the abuse of authority I find another suggestion for an indirect attack on the war impulse. That men are divided into the leaders and the led is but another manifestation of their inborn and irremediable inequality. The second class constitutes the vast majority; they need a high command to make decisions for them, to which decisions they usually bow without demur. In this context we would point out that men should be at greater pains than heretofore to form a superior class of independent thinkers, unamenable to intimidation and fervent in the quest of truth, whose function it would be to guide the masses dependent on their lead. The ideal conditions would obviously be found in a community where every man subordinated his instinctive life to the dictates of reason. The other indirect methods of preventing war are certainly more feasible, but entail no quick results. Moreover, wars, as now conducted, afford no scope for acts of heroism according to the old ideals and, given the high perfection of modern arms, war today would mean the sheer extermination of one of the combatants, if not of both. The cultural development of mankind (some, I know, prefer to call it civilization) has been in progress since immemorial antiquity. To this processus we owe all that is best in our composition, but also much that makes for human suffering. Its origins and causes are obscure, its issue is uncertain, but some of its characteristics are easy to perceive. It well may lead to the extinction of mankind, for it impairs the sexual function in more than one respect, and even today the uncivilized races and the backward classes of all nations are multiplying more rapidly than the cultured elements. The psychic changes which accompany this process of cultural change are striking, and not to be gainsaid. They consist in the progressive rejection of instinctive ends and a scaling down of instinctive reactions. Sensations which delighted our forefathers have become neutral or unbearable to us; and, if our ethical and aesthetic ideals have undergone a change, the causes of this are ultimately organic. On the psychological side two of the most important phenomena of culture are, firstly, a strengthening of the intellect, which tends to master our

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

282

instinctive life, and, secondly, an introversion of the aggressive impulse, with all its consequent benefits and perils. Now war runs most emphatically counter to the psychic disposition imposed on us by the growth of culture; we are therefore bound to resent war, to find it utterly intolerable. With pacifists like us it is not merely an intellectual and affective repulsion, but a constitutional intolerance, an idiosyncrasy in its most drastic form. And it would seem that the aesthetic ignominies of warfare play almost as large a part in this repugnance as war's atrocities. How long have we to wait before the rest of men turn pacifist? Impossible to say, and yet perhaps our hope that these two factors man's cultural disposition and a well-founded dread of the form that future wars will take may serve to put an end to war in the near future, is not chimerical. But by what ways or byways this will come about, we cannot guess. Your, Sigmund Freud

Appendix 3

283

Appendix 3

A Conversation Overheard at the Beginning of the 21st Century

For those who don't like serious reading
Sociologist (S): It is odd that we do not think about the future. I do not mean the coming months or years, but, say, 3050 or 100 years, when our grandchildren, great grandchildren and, well, the following generations will live.. On the one hand, we take care of them, trying to raise them, get them education, help them to choose a good career, and will probably leave something for them in our wills. But it is no less important to leave a friendly environment for them to live in. What will happen to the planet? Will it still be suitable for life?

Political Scientist (PS): Indeed, if we stop for one short moment, take a look at what is going on and at the tendencies, the chances are high that we will get very depressed. Physicist (P): Let's recall achievements first. To begin with, the last two or three centuries, particularly the last 50-100 years, have been fundamentally different from the entire history that preceded them. The Industrial Revolution and the progress of science brought to us more knowledge about the laws and regularities of nature than the preceding 30,000-50,000 years. Not only have we come to learn about all these laws and regularities, but we have started using them to create machines and technologies which would have been called fantasies not very long ago. S: And now we live much longer. In a number of countries life expectancy has quadrupled compared to ancient times: People live 75-85 years now instead of 20-25 back at the dawn of our civilization. And in Japan they promise to bring life expectancy up to nearly 120 years in the near future. P: Achievements in medicine, science and technology have enabled us to properly diagnose and treat various diseases, improve diet and adjust physical loads. If, say, a person gets injured in a traffic accident, the ambulance arrives quickly enough to save his or her life. Environmental engineer (EE): Regrettably, here in Russia one often has to wait 30-40 minutes or more for the ambulance to arrive. However, Russia and its problems represent a separate topic for discussion. S: Nevertheless, today's realities include a dramatic progress in science and technology, increase in the quality of life and life expectancy for a part of the world population, the so-called golden billion of those who live in the world's developed countries. But there are problems that spoil the seemingly optimistic picture of our civilization's development. First of all, there is a huge gap in the quality of life between the rich and the poor. On the one pole people spend $50-100 and even more a day, while on the opposite pole the corresponding amount is less than $1 and people are dying of hunger or lack of medical aid. In addition to such a situation being awful and impermissible, it works to fuel dangerous confrontation, which is growing, while no recipes have so far been devised to resolve the problem.

P: Here we come to another serious problem the possibility of a massive destruction that will make our planet unsuitable for life, the development of increasingly sophisticated varieties of weapons of mass destruction. In ancient times battles a soldier could kill one or several people, while today one pushed button would

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

284

result in thousands and millions of human lives terminated. The accumulated weapon stocks are enough to eliminate all people on the planet several times over, literally to wipe human civilization away from the face of the Earth. S: People have always waged wars be it for power, territory or wealth but the losses sustained in such wars have always been replenished. There have been thousands of wars in the history of civilization, and their death toll counts in the billions. But despite the growing death toll of wars, the world's population has been steadily climbing up. World population has nearly quadrupled over the last 100 years, and there are 7 billion of us living on the planet today. PS: World population is growing at an increasing rate, and, if the trend persists, there will be 10-12 billion people living on the planet by 2050. What next? Obviously, the population cannot grow endlessly; a showdown is imminent. P: In the conditions of unregulated development of the human civilization it is impossible to make any plans or forecasts for the future. The figure above illustrates several of the many possible scenarios of human civilization's future: Sustainable development. The world's population is contained so that the environment is conserved and is capable of neutralizing the impacts of human activities and important resources are not depleted and remain on a level sufficient to support the life of future generations. This presupposes preemptive use of environmentally friendly technologies and renewable energy sources. Space development on a large scale. This scenario presupposes deployment of Population Growth and Some Possible Variants of the Future factories and electrical power plants in outer space and the use of minerals taken from the Moon and the asteroids. Maybe space settlement will become possible in the future. Probably many breakthroughs will occur in this century. Finally, the most unpleasant scenario: A global catastrophe where either no one survives or a few survivors try to restore civilization from scratch. EE: Back in the 1980s, military experts from the Soviet Union and the United States had calculated (and shared their results) that the explosion of 5,000-7,000 H-bombs would not only destroy the cities and produce deadly radioactive pollution, but would also bring masses of earth into the sky, thus causing a "nuclear winter." It would become colder and darker everywhere; agriculture and other necessary activities would become impossible for many months to come. Survivors would be limited to a few species, particularly those living very deep in the sea. People would last for some time as well. In bomb shelters. PS: How would the survivors get out to the surface and what would they do there? P: Besides, as it has turned out now, the stocks of chemical weapons are colossal as well. Russia and the United States have undertaken to reprocess about 40,000 tons worth of chemical weapons each (the lethal dose of each of these substances is much smaller than one gram). The effort would require special plants and would take more than one year. EE: Information on biological weapons is not disclosed, and, perhaps, even specialists do not have a full understanding of the possible scale and consequences of a biological attack. Even without human interference, spontaneous mutations occur from time to time in nature; new pathogens appear and are sometimes transmitted from animals to humans. Now we are facing the danger of rapidly spreading HIV. There are countries where the number of HIV carriers has come close to 50% of the population. Besides, there is avian flu, pig flu and mad cow disease... S: Bacteria, viruses, prions... What else is there in the arsenals of nature? EE: We should remember that viruses and other pathogens show an outstanding ability for adaptation. They become resistant to medicines as soon as we develop them. P: In addition, while nature keeps on producing new pathogens, we keep on trying to create more deadly material in our laboratories. PS: As I seem to remember, there is a saying: "Whatever people do, one of the end products is always a weapon."

Appendix 3

285

S: Indeed, the probability is high that a number of new methods and means of warfare will be developed in the next several decades. Some might be more dangerous than the existing ones. S: I would guess that pilot projects in this field are being worked on now. P: First of all, let's consider robots or artificial-intelligence-enabled machines. It is possible to imagine a wide variety of smart war machines: moving overland, sailing on water or under water, flying in the air or in outer space. Such smart war machines will be capable of finding and destroying the enemy without any human involvement. EE: Yes, something like this is already appearing. P: With the development of artificial intelligence, machines will start making decisions on their own. Computers are getting cleverer with every passing year. In a few decades the brainpower of computers might well become equal to that of humans, and some time later computers will leave humans behind. Machines will become capable of not only self-learning and self-upgrading but also of self-reproduction or multiplication. They will be able to function in a wider (compared to humans) range of ambient conditions, such as temperature, pressure, air composition, etc. After all, humans are very vulnerable creatures: it is enough to change, say, the oxygen content in the atmosphere or the solar radiation spectrum, and they will suffer. Machines do not need to stop for sleep or relaxation, and they need much less time for replenishing themselves. PS: Ideal war machines are in the offing This means humans will not need to appear on the battlefield in person. Their role will be limited to commanding or just watching. However, if robots become cleverer than people, they will be able to perform the commanding job better. It is reasonable to delegate power to robots to the maximum extent possible. The side which does that quicker will win. EE: This is the point where we come to the question which concerns everyone: What will humans then be needed for? To reap the harvest and enjoy the fruits? What if a smart machine or a group of smart machines, well, let's say a machine civilization, comes to have its own interests and plans? S: It is not rare in real life for one to train an assistant who later dethrones the boss. There is a risk that such might occur on a macro scale. What will be the fate of humans if the worst scenario is realized? Will machines treat us like we treat inferior creatures? Will they use us for unskilled labor, or will they put us into a zoo? PS: In all likelihood, we will have to deal with this problem: at a certain moment we should exercise caution not to let the genie out of the bottle. Of course, in all times there have been no shortage of evil-doers. Besides, there might be purely technical or programmatic errors or psychological problems with the AI creators and developers. P: Let's not forget about nanotechnology a cutting edge direction of science and technology. Nanorobots tiny mechanisms with sizes of tens or hundreds of nanometers will probably be created. Like the robots we can see today, nanorobots will feature various designs and purposes: They will be able to move, perform mechanical or other operations, and will be controlled either remotely or by a built-in preprogrammed computer. Moreover, nanorobots can be programmed for self-replication or reproduction. EE: On the one hand, nanorobots will be useful for producing materials with fantastic properties, for curing deadly diseases and for achieving a breakthrough in labor productivity. PS: But on the other hand... They can be programmed for killing people within a certain geographical area or people belonging to a certain ethnic group. Nanorobots might become a new weapon of mass destruction. S: Being, as seen by the human eyes, just tiny particles, nanorobots will be able to travel long distances laying waste everywhere, like locusts. P: As soon as technologies of nanorobot fabrication, programming and control become available, the fabrication of nanorobots will become possible even by small groups of people, even by individuals, all the more so that nanorobots can be self-reproduction enabled. Unlike in the nuclear industry, nanorobot production will not require any large factories, special "closed cities" and tens of thousands of highly skilled specialists. All that is needed is to devise a mechanism capable of producing copies of itself and develop software for it. PS: Yes, and it will not be necessary to spend time on their education and training everything will be in the software. EE: This is fairly probable. Nanotechnology today is one of the trendiest and most promising fields of research. Investments in nanotechnology research have climbed to many billions of dollars a year.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

286

S: Do you mean a success or a threat may arise in the next few decades? P: The progress of science and technology has been truly impressive over the recent epoch: basic performance characteristics of the cutting edge devices have improved a thousand times, even a million times, during a decade or several decades, and that has not been seen as something unusual. The most impressive breakthroughs have occurred in the nuclear industry in the production of fissile isotopes, in the computer technology, in the weight of orbiting apparatuses, and in television broadcasting techniques, not to mention weapons of mass destruction. All depends on the amount of resources, both mental and financial, mobilized for the problem's resolution. EE: How about disarmament? After all, the most destructive and widespread weapons are being gradually eliminated. PS: Gradually, indeed. It would be more correct to say that we are witnessing a process of arms modification and upgrading. Old weapons are being eliminated only to be replaced with new, modern ones. The total amount sufficient for a global disaster is always present. P: Now we have approached another problem a paradox that governs our life today and will probably determine the future of our civilization. I'm speaking about the paradox of nonuniform development: the increase in technocratic civilization accompanied by a relatively slow development of the human sciences, which study people's behavior and their relations between one another. Now we are witnessing a peculiar situation that is without precedent in history: we are able to eliminate ourselves, more easily with every passing day, while at the same time we are unable, or to be more precise, we are not always able, to achieve peaceful resolution of disputes. The old, forceful, methods of resolving contradictions between people have seen very little change since many hundreds of years ago and are now totally inadequate to the available means of destruction. History contains numerous examples of how lack of reason and morals led national leaders to crushing defeats as they started wars while absolutely certain about their victory. If in the past such misbegotten forays ended up in huge loss of life, sometimes including the culprit's own, now an ill-advised action by those in charge of the nuclear button is enormously dangerous for the entire planet. S: Indeed, there is little difference between the intrigues played out in Ancient Egypt or Medieval Europe and the modern-day ones. There are same ambitions and same erroneous perception of reality. For the more than 40 years of the Cold War the world was balancing on the edge like a tightrope walker. The opposing sides approached the dangerous line more than once. One could not be certain that nuclear weapons would not be used. PS: Fortunately, it is all over now. Millions of people died in local wars waged during the Cold War era, and, finally, one of the opposing sides failed to hold up. But we have avoided a global-scale war and devastation of the planet. Will it be possible for the world to survive the conflicts still to come? As we can see, conflicts emerge at regular intervals: in contemporary history, global-scale conflicts have occurred every decade or several decades. Different conflicts involve different countries, have different causes and geography, but with the development and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction such conflicts are becoming increasingly dangerous. PS: Shortage of energy resources might well become the cause of a future war. S: Indeed, energy shortage might develop into a dominant problem as it affects industries, transport, home heating, food and medicine production and other vital areas. EE: Environmental problems might also become a cause for a global conflict: For example, some countries might want to stop their neighbors from polluting the water and atmosphere, from activities leading to territories becoming unsuitable for living. Also, the rise of the ocean level may force hundreds of millions of people to leave their homelands and seek refuge in other countries. It is easy to imagine how a conflict might arise between neighboring countries if one of them is doing harm to the environment. P: Unfortunately, we cannot exclude the possibility for a global catastrophe to be caused by suicidal maniacs who manage to get hold of cutting edge technologies. For the sake of some supposed supreme goals, like, say, deliverance of humanity from all problems, they may launch a weapon of mass destruction. This might be biological weapon or something else. There are several examples in history of massive murder and suicide under such slogans. S: In fact, millions of people died in wars or from state-sponsored repressions under the banners of communism, the Thousand-Year Reich, united Europe, etc. And now they have begun killing people under the slogan of "extermination of the infidel" and "creation of a worldwide caliphate." The list can be continued. PS: In focus today is opposition between the West and a number of other countries, including groups of countries belonging to the Third World. On the frontline, there are the United States and Israel, on the Western side, and radical Islamic groups and Iran on the other side. The confrontation is rooted primarily in the differences in the quality of life, mentality and way of life. Also fueling the opposition are various religious or ideological dogmas and customs; the situation is further complicated by conservatism, that is, unwillingness to accept new realities and change accordingly. S: It is hard for the backward countries to catch up with the leaders. In the meantime, thanks to modern means of communication, information about the bonanza of the world's richest countries is coming to the re-

Appendix 3

287

motest spots on the globe. Some countries, however, have managed to make a breakthrough, and climbed up to the level of the developed world within a historically brief period of time. I'm thinking of the so-called Asian Tigers South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. A number of other countries followed suit. Yet earlier, shortly after World War II, similar breakthroughs were achieved by Germany and Japan. EE: Alas, not all countries have been that successful many backward countries have been and are spending most of their resources and energy on internecine feuds, while the goods provided for free as international assistance often wind up in the pockets of a narrow circle on the top. PS: Another problem comes from the existence of sharp cultural and ethical differences between countries. For example, how would the East perceive the explicit shows which are usual in the West? How would you convince a Muslim that it is more correct to live with one wife than with four? On the other hand, how would you convince a person belonging to the Western culture that alcohol is totally inadmissible or persuade the owner of a bank to issue interest-free loans? How would a Muslim perceive the high crime rate characteristic of many Western countries? What would be his attitude toward the collapse of the family institution that is manifested in a high divorce rate, promiscuity and increase in the number of broken families? Orthodox Sharia Law forbids television and many kinds of music. S: How about women's status? In a large part of the Muslim world women have much fewer rights than men. They are not allowed to study or work, and female genital mutilation is practiced in dozens of Muslim countries. EE: If women had ruled the world or, at least, if they had equal men access to power as men would there have been fewer wars? Why wage wars and kill each other if the main task is to give birth and preserve life? The urge to fight is much stronger in men, being rooted in the time when men were hunters and had to kill animals for food. P: Let's return to the 9/11 catastrophe in New York and other terrorist attacks that followed. The weapon of the poor suicide bombers is now being used against the population of the superpowers. In return, Afghanistan and Iraq have been defeated and occupied. S: In certain countries, shahids are being trained on a massive scale. By means of special training or hypnotization it is possible to make one believe in almost anything. Alternatively, the trainers may use psychotropic or narcotic substances. Islam promises its martyrs 72 virgins in heaven and many other pleasures. PS: To be more convincing, it is possible to arrange for a private harem entertainment sance. Shows of this kind were organized as far back as about 1,000 years ago by the Islamic sect of Assassins. S: In the future it will become easier to make people do "heroic deeds" it will be enough to implant special chips into their brains and control them remotely. Such experiments are already being conducted with animals, in particular with insects. P: It appears that we are witnessing the birth of a new method of waging wars. Consider the following scenario, for example: a country, which is apparently weaker, stages a number of unexpected but devastating acts of terrorism in various regions around the globe; then, to consolidate the results, it uses dirty nuclear bombs, chemical or biological or other kinds of WMD which might appear in the future. S: It is impossible to prevent proliferation of innovative technologies; sooner or later they will become common knowledge. Besides, those who are very interested may try to kidnap scientists or specialists. EE: In return, the other party in the conflict would deal strikes on the enemy's actual or suspected bases or even choose to expand the geography of preventive strikes over entire countries. PS: Certain groups in the East have gone as far as proclaiming their ultimate goal as the creation of an Islamic World Caliphate; they justify the use of any weapons, including against the civilian population. The wealthy and strong countries are trying to preserve the existing world order established after World War II. S: In the meantime, the world's mightiest superpower, the United States, is showing signs of drifting away from democracy toward totalitarian control over its citizens, imposing a stricter visa regime, etc. Unfortunately, current confrontation might cause the developed world to lose some of its freedoms. P: While resolving problems, it is important not to cause new problems to appear. What to Do? EE: So far we have discussed conflicts and problems the world is facing at this moment, the problems of today. But what should we do about the adverse global trends that are manifested in the accumulation of destructive forces and global crises occurring at regular intervals? Besides, we need to do something to stop the increasing environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources, demographic explosion, etc. S: I must agree that these problems are putting our future in question. At this moment, people's consciousness is not sufficiently developed to resolve these problems; in other words, people are not clever enough to understand properly what is going on, to join efforts instead of fighting and find ways to combat risks.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

288

PS: Scientists and philosophers have spoken about thus. "Man is laying his hands on dreadful weapons that make all previous ones look like toys. Humanity's future depends entirely on a mental breakthrough, on morality," according to Nikolai Berdyaev. Bertrand Russell thought that "human beings, who believe themselves to be the cleverest species on the planet, are behaving such that... in the long run their activity will come to contradict their own interests ... People need to develop their human consciousness, achieve changes in the inner world, i.e., the world of consciousness and awareness, to bring them into line with the fantastic achievements in the material sphere." EE: I believe our powers of reason and understanding will help us find solutions and preserve our civilization. Therefore, now we need to develop and implement programs that will help solve the problems we are facing. P: First of all, we should look ahead and review options for development, not for the next 10-15 yeas as we are used to doing, but for 30-50 years or until the end of the century. This is not an indulgence, but a vital necessity. A graphic example is that a number of the world's great powers are maintaining their military potential or even increasing it. But if the primary goal is set as achieving long term stability on the planet, quite the opposite activities are required to disarm and eliminate weapons of mass destruction. PS: Yes, and to see that nobody secures such weapons. S: Let us consider one more aspect of the situation. Quite a few countries today are concerned about their zero or negative population growth, while on the global scale it is desirable to curb population growth, maybe even to reduce the number of people living on the planet. After all, it is obvious that if an improvement in the quality of life is achieved for the majority of the world population which needs to be done anyway the planet will not sustain 7-10 billion people. EE: Unless we manage to settle in space. P: I believe humanity has enough power of reason and enough resources to preserve our civilization first over this century, and then, based on the lessons learned, over subsequent epochs. Let's recall that there is experience of successful performance of unusual and large-scale projects involving hundreds of thousands of people for periods of many years. We know that such projects often yielded quite impressive results. I mean certain research and development efforts, such as the Manhattan Project or Apollo Project. Although honestly much of that was done with the aim of creating new kinds of weapons of mass destruction, not for relieving millions of people of poverty. PS: The Soviet Union also accomplished gigantic projects in the nuclear and missile fields. The experience accumulated in these projects can be useful for peaceful undertakings. S: In none of these projects was it possible to include everything into a plan, and there was no clarity about the final result as well. That notwithstanding, ideas were developed, people were mobilized, funds were allocated, and in a few years truly fantastic projects were completed. PS: Yes, projects of that scale and ambition had been without a precedent in the previous history of human civilization. The two great powers mustered strength and, without exaggeration, worked a miracle. There is no a less graphic example of international cooperation in a large-scale peaceful project. That, however, was not a technological but a political project the European Union a voluntary unification of 27 countries with a combined population of nearly half a billion people. In this case, the task was not that of solving scientific or technical problems, but that of transforming the people's mentality and consciousness, plus resolving a set of economic and social problems. The result is that a way was found to arrange for a peaceful life over most of Europe's area. S: The EU project took several decades to implement and required changes in habitual traditions and stereotypes. In terms of scale, the EU project definitely eclipses the technological efforts described above. If we count in present-day US dollars, the Moon exploration program would be worth a total of about $100120 billion, while the creation of such the superstate of the European Union is obviously bigger in both value and significance. EE: This is without a precedent in history. Peoples who had warred for many centuries are now united and are citizens of a union state. S: If we take the Holy Roman Empire as the previous example of European unification, the time interval between the two was about 2,000 years. There existed an almost genetically imbued hatred between the Germans and the French, the Poles and the Germans, the Lithuanians and the Poles... Many millions of people were killed in numerous conflicts. PS: It's all becoming history now. State borders have been removed, military units which defended them are gone, and a common legislation and a common parliament have been established. You do not need any visas or special permits to travel, live or do business anywhere within the borders of the new superstate. War is simply impossible within the EU because there are no opposing armies and no war propaganda setting peoples against one another. EE: Of course, there is a common military force to defend the union from external threats. PS: Not much is left to be done: only to implement similar projects with the remaining countries, and in the longer run to have the entire world population living in one state.

Appendix 3

289

EE: Do you mean a united world community with no wars and conflicts? S: I believe this is the ideal we should strive for. Why isn't this possible? Maybe we are all too different in our habits, standards of living and aspirations? EE: As regards aspirations, I would not say they are so strongly different. First and foremost, everybody wants to live well... PS: This is where problems begin: some people understand "living well" as having enough food, the opportunity to bring up and educate their children, a decent home to live in, quality medical service and freedom. Others, who already live in luxury, view what they have as not enough. Some people are willing to work, while others are not. S: Here we have approached the main problem: What to do about people's upbringing and organization to suppress the development of such negative instincts as aggressiveness, presumptuousness, consumer hedonism, etc., and to make it so that their mindset and consciousness are in harmony with the community's possibilities and needs. EE: I would add that they should be in harmony with the capacity of our Earth in other words, the environment. PS: What to do to prevent humanity from marching toward a chasm led by not the best slogans and by far not the most honest leaders? S: The future of our descendants strongly depends on our success in limiting world population and consumption and learning to regulate conflicts peacefully. P: We need to develop and implement an international program that would include propaganda and education of qualities in people, citizens of planet Earth, that are required for the preservation of human civilization: sensible consumption, tolerance, a limited birthrate, all that is required for sustainability. We should teach our children to live in a different world, in a world where there are no wars, no ethnic hatred, and where there is one common homeland for all the planet Earth. If we take the task seriously and mobilize the available information technologies, media, talented teachers, propagandists and cultural activists, it will be possible to reach the entire world population and achieve radical changes in global consciousness, mindset and habits within the period of two or three generations. Incidentally, cheap notebook computers have already appeared that are designed to provide a window to the world for the most backward tribes. It is possible to disseminate information in all languages and to present it in the most comprehensible way. PS: It is necessary to see to it that such information is humanistic in nature and leading toward a better world, not inflaming conflicts on each and every pretext. S: Such a global project needs to be adequately funded and needs to have public support... EE: The latter may be most difficult to achieve as it will require many to discard long-standing habits and amenities, such as excessive consumption. Some will have to change their occupation or drop their ambitions. PS: This is one side of the problem. It will not be possible to achieve the desired changes in people's consciousness unless we achieve an improvement in the quality of life for the billions of the backward nations, unless we share new technologies and medical achievements with them, and provide them with social welfare and other benefits enjoyed by the citizens of the developed countries. S: This is a real problem! How can we achieve an increase in the quality of life of several billions of people? PS: As long as this is not done, the backward nations will not only hate the developed ones, but will be seeking to join efforts, to unite, in order to grab the wealth of or, at least, to infiltrate into the rich countries. EE: Indeed, this is precisely what is happening today; moreover, this is happening on an increasing scale. S: It all sounds fair and good, but... Isn't this basically the same as what was once been propagandized by the utopian socialists, communists and some religions? We know that these ideas have never succeeded anywhere on the globe. PS: Regrettably, yes, you are right. But given the threats our civilization is facing today, and that these threats are all too real, we simply have no choice but to subject ourselves to a radical transformation. P: Simultaneously, it is necessary to look for ways to solve some other problems . By this I mean that we should stop the process of proliferation and improvement of weapons, first of all weapons of mass destruction, and we should put an end to environmental pollution and depletion. PS: We should first and foremost break the historical trends of warring and killing.

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

290

Programs for Survival PS: Now we have approached the most important issue. I'll repeat: there is only one way out to develop and implement programs that would help solve our problems. We have to organize and work patiently. Such programs will require more time and money than the projects accomplished in the world over the last century. EE: Perhaps five to ten times the amount. P: Yes. Not 100 billion dollars; maybe an order of magnitude more. And not three or five years, but probably 30 or even 50. S: We will need to climb up to the next, higher, level, compared to the last century's projects. P: And the task to be resolved is fundamentally different too. In the last century, we developed weapons to threaten our neighbors, even to subdue or eliminate them. Moon expeditions were to a large extent an ambitious project aimed at demonstrating technological superiority; obtaining new information about our natural satellite was only second on the list. Now we are speaking of a project the objective of which is to save life on the planet, which means that billions of human lives are at stake. EE: Yes, our task is to preserve the unique phenomenon of homo sapiens. PS: Let's not hurry to get afraid of fantastic spending or a long time frame. The world's combined military spending currently is about one trillion dollars per year; the Cold War cost more than 10 trillion dollars. Everybody has grown used to such expenses and regards them as something normal. P: We need common sense to understand how ludicrous such a situation is. S: If common sense prevails and we decide to give a chance to our descendants and preserve our habitat, one of the main tasks will be to curb military spending and redirect the money thus released to finance sustainability programs. PS: Yes, we will need to develop and implement a number of programs to achieve transformation of consciousness, modernization of the backward economies, general and radical disarmament and gradual removal of state borders as per the EU example. Let me briefly summarize these programs: Change of global mentality and mindset (Project Consciousness). Propaganda and education directed at promoting tolerance, peacefulness and equality, suppression of aggressiveness, ethnic and religious hatred, and restriction of consumption. Disarmament. Disarmament and disbandment of armies. Only an international contingent will be preserved for security purposes. Termination of weapons research and their large scale production. Technology. Development of technologies ensuring high quality of life and preservation of the environment as well as humanitarian technologies required for the transformation of human consciousness and mindset. Economy. Help the developed countries achieve economic improvement. Establish stable political and social systems based on social justice. Eliminate the quality of life gap. Geopolitics. Unification of countries on the EU model with the aim of establishing a common world community. S: As regards the money required for these programs, we can consider the following potential sources of funding: Reduction and subsequent termination of spending on arms and armies. Available financial reserves and surplus capital from the richest countries; voluntary contributions from companies and individuals. Education and growth of people's knowledge and skills in the developing world. Growth of the average labor productivity worldwide thanks to scientific-technical progress. Wide use of robototechnics and computerization. Transition to moderate consumption in the wealthiest countries. Extensive development of extraterrestrial resources. EE: Well, that looks very much like a mirage. P: Are there any alternative options? To continue arming, warring with increasingly dangerous weapons and on an increasing scale? Wait until a weapon of mass destruction is used, the few survivors rebuild human civilization, and, with such a lesson learned, the new civilization lives in peace? S: That would be a brutal and risky scenario. Many people would die and there is no certainty about restoration. PS: I don't see any other sensible options but the one where we radically change the situation and decisively abandon the policy of confrontations and wars. Of course, these programs can be formulated in different ways, something can be added or postponed for a time, but the ideas expressed represent the main points that are necessary.

Appendix 3

291

EE: If, however, the goal is to live today without caring about the future generations, it is possible to stay the course. In such a case, the consequences will not be long in coming: increasingly severe natural disasters, loss of life due to famines and local conflicts, and increased casualties among the developed world's citizens as a result of growing aggressiveness on the part of those who have been left behind. P: The 20th century is often referred to as a century of warning, and, therefore, the 21st century is poised to become the century of the turning point it will bring a change in the people's mentality and a new way of life based on nonviolence and tolerance. The ideas of compromise, unification, mutual assistance and the old but still vitally important commandment "Thou Shalt Not Kill" should become the world's dominating principles. EE: The commandment is several thousand years old, but it is now for the first time that humanity's survival depends on it. This is at least what follows from a sensible analysis of the present situation. PS: Therefore, more than just a little needs to be done: to convince the world community, or to be more precise, those who make decisions... S: Those in power, those belonging to the elite, people of authority and, generally speaking, those who are well-educated, knowledgeable, and thinking. PS: In addition to convincing them, it is required to launch the effort. Of course, we will need to organize propaganda and education among the rest of the people, first of all, among the younger generation who are more receptive of new ideas and more strongly motivated to save the world. S: The sequence of implementing these efforts and projects, as well as other details are, in fact, not very important. The main question is whether we address the issue with all seriousness and take a right course of action right now, or do we need a catastrophe to occur to get shaken up and pushed in the right direction? In the worst case, such a catastrophe will leave no survivors. EE: It appears that despite the problem's complexity, we do have at least an approximate plan of what needs to be done to preserve civilization. The question is how to ensure the desired rate. First of all, it is necessary to start working without waiting for the situation to worsen. S: The worst case will be if the situation becomes irreversible. PS: We need enthusiasts, we need propaganda of a world-saving program, we need to ally with Greenpeace as well as with pacifist associations. The UN should also be active and should probably be reformed; also, activity is required from everyone who agrees with the analyses and ideas formulated hereabove. P: The result of our conversation can be formulated as "let's review the facts, study the proposals and begin to work." Concluding Remarks: Skeptic: It is hard to disagree with the analysis of the world situation as well as with the recommendations proposed for humanity's salvation. Unfortunately, it does not appear realistic that in the near future it will be possible to achieve a transformation in the people's consciousness that would turn humanity onto a different path of development where major efforts and resources would be allocated to combat the emerging, though yet faraway, threats. Given that, two of the scenarios mentioned above appear fairly realistic. The first is a limited war with the use of weapons of mass destruction in which part of humanity survives, and then takes on a different way of life. The second scenario is the gloomiest, that is, a global cataclysm. It is difficult to imagine that the increasingly modernized and spread so widely over the world weapons of mass destruction will never be used. Author: Now we can conclude that the problems complicating the human race's survival in the present century are almost defined. We are sorely ill and the disease's outcome is unknown, but still it would be good for us to abide by the rule "If one is badly or even terminally ill, but there is the tiniest chance to survive, life should be struggled for."

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

292

References
Books 1. Evgeny Abramyan, How Much Longer Are We Expected To Live? The Destiny of Civilization, 20061 (in Russian) 2. Evgeny Abramyan, The Destiny of Civilization, 2007 (in Russian) 3. Evgeny Abramyan, Civilization in the 21st Century, 2008 (in English) 4. Isaac Asimov, A Choice of Catastrophes, 1979 5. Daniil Andreyev, The Rose of the World, 1991 (in Russian) 6. Viktor Astafiev, The Cursed and the Slain, 1994 (in Russian) 7. Aidar Abdullin, The Essentials of Globalistics, 1999 (in Russian) 8. Dmitry Aksyonov, Predictions for the Future The Shocking Truth, 2006 (in Russian) 9. The White Book. Russian Federation and Weapons of Mass Destruction Nonproliferation Status, 2006 (in Russian) 10. Alice Bailey, Problems of Humanity, 1947 11. Alice Bailey, Education in the New Age, 1954 12. Daniel Bell, The Coming of Postindustrial Society, 1973 13. Leonard Berkowitz, Aggression. Its Causes, Consequences and Control, 1993 14. Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, The Alternative Civilization, 1998 (in Russian) 15. Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, The 21st Century Is around the Corner. Anthology of Modern Classical Prognostics, 2000 (in Russian) 16. Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, Russia and the World, 2006-2015: Challenges and Responses, 2005 (in Russian) 17. Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, The History of Mankind, INES Publishers, 2007 (in Russian) 18. Vladimir Bekhterev, Suggestion and Its Role in Social Life, 1903 (in Russian) 19. Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, Basic Books, 1997 20. Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Technetronic Era, 1970 21. Nick Bostrom, Existential Risks, Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002. 22. Nick Bostrom and Max Tegmark, How Unlikely is a Doomsday Catastrophe? // Nature, Vol. 438, No. 7069, p. 754, 2005. 23. Arthur Bloch, Murphy's Law, 1983 24. Yuri Bobylov, Genetic Bomb. Secret Scenarios of Bioterrorism, 2006 (in Russian) 25. Valery Bulatov, Russia: Environment and the Army, 1999 (in Russian) 26. Patrick J. Buchanan, The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilization, 2002 27. Immanuel Wallerstein, The Modern World System, 1974-1989 28. Immanuel Wallerstein, After Liberalism, 2003 29. Lev Voznesensky, For the Sake of Truth, 2004 (in Russian) 30. Nikolay Voznesensky, The Soviet Union's Military Economy during the World War II, 1947 (in Russian) 31. Yegor Gaidar, The Anomalies of Economic Growth, 1996 (in Russian) 32. Yegor Gaidar, Lasting Time. Russia in the World, 2005 (in Russian) 33. Yegor Gaidar, The Collapse of Empire. Lessons for Modern Russia, 2006 (in Russian) 34. Pyotr Galperin, Lectures on Psychology, 2002 (in Russian) 35. Hazel Henderson, Paradigms in Progress: Life Beyond Economics, 1991 36. Vitaly Ginzburg, About Science, Myself and Others, 2001 (in Russian) 37. Nikolay Glazovsky et al., Transition to Sustainable Development: Global, Regional and Local Levels, 2002 (in Russian) 38. Michael Grant, The Fall of the Roman Empire, 1998 39. Globalistics. Encyclopedia, Moscow, Raduga Publishers, 2003 (in Russian) 40. John De Graaf, David Wann, Thomas H. Nylor, Affluenza: The All-Consuming Epidemic, 2003 41. Ervin Laszlo, Stanislav Grof, Peter Russell, The Consciousness Revolution, 2004 42. Pavel Gurevich, Culturology, M., Gardariki Publishers, 1999 (in Russian) 43. Pyotr Deinichenko, 21st Century: History Does Not End Here, 2003 (in Russian)
1 Some chapters were published in the magazines Diplomatic Service (Diplomaticheskaya sluzhba) and International Economy (Mezhdunarodnaya ekonomika), 2006

References

293

44. Richard Dawkins, The God Delusion, 2006 45. Anatoly Dyakov, ed., Physical and Technical Problems of Electrical Energy Transmittal, 1998 (in Russian) 46. Wolfgang Ebeling, Rainer Feistel, Chaos und Kosmos Prinzipien der Evolution, 1994. 47. Viktor Danilov-Danilyan, Kim Losev, Igor Reif, In Front of the Civilization's Main Challenge, 2005 (in Russian) 48. Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World, N.Y.-L. : W.W. Norton, 2008 49. Vsevolod Zubakov, Endoecological Poisoning and Evolution: The Survival Strategy, 2002 (in Russian) 50. Vladislav Inozemtsev, ed., A New Postindustrial Wave in the West: - A collection of articles translated from English, 1999 (in Russian) 51. Rondo Cameron, A Concise Economic History of the World: From Paleolithic Times to the Present, 1993 52. Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener, The Year 2000, 1967 53. Sergey Kapitsa, Sergey Kurdyumov, Georgy Malinetskiy, Synergetics and Prognoses for the Future, Moscow, Nauka, 1997 (in Russian) 54. Sergey Kara-Murza, The Manipulation of Consciousness, 2000 (in Russian) 55. Rushworth Kidder, Reinventing the Future: Global Goals for the 21st Century, 1987 56. Alexander Klizovsky, Basics of World Outlook of the New Epoch, 1934 (in Russian) 57. Naomi Klein, The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, 2007 58. John Coleman, Committee of 300, 2000 59. Andrey Korotaev et al, The Laws of History. Mathematical Modeling, KomKniga, 2007 (in Russian) 60. Ivan Korsuntsev, In the World of Contemporary Scientific Mythology, 2004 (in Russian) 61. Naomi Klein, No Logo: Taking Aim at the Brand Bullies, 2000 62. Boris Kuzyk, Yuri Yakovets, Alexander Nekipelov, Civilization: Theory, History, Dialog, Future, 2004 (in Russian) 63. Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, 2005 64. Vladimir Kutyrev, Culture and Technology: The War of the Worlds, 2001 (in Russian) 65. Ervin Laszlo, My Vision of Europe, Journal of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, 2003 66. Ervin Laszlo, Macroshift: Navigating the Transformation to a Sustainable World, 2004 67. Ervin Laszlo, Third Millennium: The Challenge and the Vision, 1997 68. Gustave Le Bon, The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind, 1895 69. Stanislaw Lem, Summa Technologiae, 1963 70. Stanislaw Lem, Fantasy and Futurology, 1970 71. Konrad Lorentz, Civilized Man's Eight Deadly Sins, 1973 72. Konrad Lorentz, Behind the Mirror, 1973 73. Konrad Lorentz, The So-Called Evil, 1963 74. Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, 1852 75. Robert MacNeil, The People Machine: The Influence of Television on American Politics, 1968 76. Russian Concise Encyclopedia of Prognostics, editor-in-chief Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, IES Publishers, 2007 (in Russian) 77. Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels, Collected Works, Vol. 42, p. 124 (in Russian) 78. Martin Rees, Our Final Hour, New York, 2003 79. Donella Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, 1972 80. Mihajlo Mesarovic and Eduard Pestel, Strategy for Survival, 1974 81. Sergo Mikoyan, Anatomy of the Caribbean Crisis, 2006 (in Russian) 82. Nikita Moiseyev, The Destiny of Civilization. The Way of Reason, 1998 (in Russian) 83. Gennady Molokanov, Systems Ecology, 1995 (in Russian) 84. Edgar Morin, La mthode l. la nature de la nature, 1981 (In French) 85. Alexander Dynkin, Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, -ed., World Economy: Forecasts to Year 2020, 2007 (in Russian) 86. Serge Moscovici, La Machine faire les dieux, 1988 (In French) 87. Alexander Nikitin and Stanislav Stepanov, ed., Ecology. Environmental Protection. Environmental Security, 2000 (in Russian) 88. Akop Nazaretian, Civilization Crises within the Context of Universal History, 2001 (in Russian) 89. Akop Nazaretian, The Anthology of Violence and Culture of Self-Organization, LKI Publishers, 2007 (in Russian) 90. Joseph S. Nye, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics, 2004 91. Alexander Neklessa, Controllable Chaos: Movement toward a Nonstationary System of World Ties, 2002 (in Russian) 92. Alexander Nikonov, Civilizer's Fate. The End of Empires: Theory and Practice, 2006 (in Russian) 93. A New Paradigm of Prognostication,. The Nikolay Kondratyev International Foundation, M.: MFK Publishers, 2007 (in Russian)

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

294

94. Larisa Osipova-Derbas, Evolution of Civilization, 2002 (In Russian) 95. Cyril Northcote Parkinson, Parkinson's Law, or the Rising Pyramid, 1959 96. Aurelio Peccei, The Human Quality, 1977 97. Glenn D. Paige, Is a Nonkilling Society Possible?, 2005. 98. Radiy Prasolov et al., Ecology, Catastrophes, Prognostication, Spontaneous Natural Processes: Geographic, Ecological and Socioeconomic Aspects, 2002 (in Russian) 99. Radiy Prasolov, Cosmogeodynamics, Time, Energy, Catastrophes (in Russian) 100. Laurence J. Peter, Raymond Hall, The Peter Principle, 1971 101. Elgiz Pozdnyakov, The Philosophy of Crime, 2001 (in Russian) 102. Georgy Pushkin, Russia-2012, History of the Future, 2006 (in Russian) 103. Erich Maria Remarque, The Night in Lisbon, 1962 104. Nikolay Roerich, Culture and Civilization, 1997 (in Russian) 105. Alexander Ageyev, Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, ed., Russia and the World: A View From Year 2017, INES Publishers, 2007 (in Russian) 106. Maria Rybalkina, Nanotechnology for Everyone, 2005 (in Russian) 107. Mikhail Saltykov-Shchedrin, The History of a Town, 1870 (in Russian) 108. Scipio Sighele, La folla delinquente, Torino: Fratelli Bocca, 1892 (in Italian) 109. Tatyana Sidorina, Crisis Philosophy, 2003 (in Russian) 110. Vyacheslav Stepin, Theoretical Knowledge. Structure, Historical Evolution, 2000 (in Russian) 111. Bruce Sterling, The Future Begins Today, 2002 112. Andrei Strygin, World Economy, (a textbook for polytechnic universities), 2008 (in Russian) 113. Several authors, Synergy Paradigm, 2002 114. Yearbooks of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Armements, Disarmament and International Security, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. 115. Jean-Gabriel de Tarde, L'opinion et la foule, 1901 (in French) 116. Margaret Thatcher, Statecraft, 2002 117. Arnold Toynbee, A Study of History, 1950 118. Alvin Toffler, Future Shock, 1970 119. Alvin Toffler, The Third Wave, 1980 120. Arkady Ulugbekov, The Treasury of Extraterrestrial Resources, 1984 (in Russian) 121. Anatoly Utkin, Globalization: The Process and Conceptualization, 2001 (in Russian) 122. Lev Fyodorov: Chemical Weapons A War Against Own People. The Tragic Russian Experience, in three volumes, published in Moscow by the Lesnaya Strana Publishers, 2009 (in Russian) 123. Arkadiy Fedotov, Globalistics: The Basics of the Modern World Science, 2002 (in Russian) 124. Jay Wright Forrester, World Dynamics, 1973 125. Sigmund Freud, Group Psychology and Ego Analysis, 1920 126. Erich Fromm, To Have or To Be?, 1976 127. Thomas Friedman, The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century, 2005 128. Francis Fukuyama, Our Posthuman Future: The Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution, 2002 129. Francis Fukuyama, America at the Crossroads, 2007 130. Lee Harris, The Suicide of Reason, 2008 131. Eric Hoffer, The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements, 1951 132. Vladimir Tsaplin, A Version of the Future, 2003 (in Russian) 133. Vladimir Tsaplin, A Strange Civilization, 2005 (in Russian) 134. Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, Outer Space Exploration Using Reactive Apparatuses, 1903 (in Russian) 135. Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, The Live Universe, 1923 (in Russian) 136. Anatoly Chernyaev, The Diary, 2008 (in Russian) 137. Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, The Cosmic Philosophy, 1981 (in Russian) 138. Friedrich Engels, The Origin of the Family, Private Property, and the State, 1884 139. The Encyclopedia of Russian Weapons and Technologies. 21st Century, ed. Sergey Ivanov, 2000-2007 (in Russian) 140. Robert Jungk, Tomorrow Is Already Here, 1952 141. Alexander Yakovlev, Twilight, Materik Publishing House, Moscow, 2003 (in Russian) 142. Igor Yakovlev, History of Mankind. History of Man-Nature Relations as a Civilizational Process, 2006 (in Russian) 143. Eliezer Yudkowsky, Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk. Global Catastrophic Risks, Oxford University Press, 2007

References

295

Articles, Declarations, etc. 1. Evgeny Abramyan, Articles published in the Argumenty i Fakty weekly: Dinosaurs Died Quickly. Aren't We Up to the Same Fate? No. 25, 2000 (in Russian); How Many Years Our Grandchildren and Great Grandchildren Are Fated to Live? No. 47, 2001 (in Russian); Is it Possible to Predict the Future of Mankind? No. 47, 2002 (in Russian). 2. Eduard Artemiev et al., Problems of the Global Crisis: An Open Letter of the Club of Moscow, Izvestia, No. 175, 2004 (in Russian) 3. Yuri Afanasyev, We Are Not Slaves, Novaya Gazeta, December 2008 (in Russian) 4. Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, Mankind Is Doomed to Extinction, Moskovsky Komsomolets, May 2006 (in Russian) 5. Nick Bostrom, Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards, Journal of Evolution and Technology, No. 9, 2001 6. Lev Voznesensky, Ideas for the Constitutional Commission, 1968 (in Russian) 7. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted by the General Assembly of the United Nations on December 10, 1948 8. Mikhail Galanin et al., Numerical Modeling of Spatial 3D Phenomena Upon Electromagnetic Acceleration of Conductive Macrobodies// Mathematical Modeling, 1999, Vol. 11, No. 8, pp. 3-22. 9. The Humanist Manifesto 2000: A Call for a New Planetary Humanism, 2000 10. A Secular Humanist Declaration, 1980 11. The Declaration of Interdependence, 1988 12. Bill Joy, Why the Future Doesn't Need Us?, Wired, 2000 13. U.S. National Intelligence Council report, Global Trends 2015: Dialog on the Future With Nongovernmental Experts, 2000 14. Tatyana Zaslavskaya, Russia: C-Minuses, Novaya Gazeta, No. 22, 2005 (in Russian) 15. Vladislav Inozemtsev, Small Countries in Big Politics, Svobodnaya Mysl, No. 3, 2006 (in Russian) 16. Karel van Wolferen, The Enigma of Japanese Power, 1989 17. Yuri Kogan, interview with V Mire Nauki, No. 4, 2006 (in Russian) 18. Kirill Kondratyev, Global Changes at the Turn of the Century, Vestnik Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, 2000, Vol. 70, No. 9 (in Russian) 19. Kirill Kondratyev, Kim Losev et al, The Cost of Russia's Environmental Services, Vestnik Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, 2003, Vol. 73, No. 1 (in Russian) 20. Yan Korchmaruk, Migrants-2: Transplantation of Consciousness, Khimiya i Zhizn, Nos. 5, 6, 1999 21. Georges Krassovsky, The Charter for the Third Millennium, 2000 22. Andrey Kurayev, How Should We Perceive Islam after Beslan?, Izvestia, No. 170, 2004 (in Russian) 23. Anatoly Luxemburg, Vladimir Simkin, The Dictatorship of the Natural Sciences, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February, 1994 (in Russian) 24. Dmitry Medvedev, Speech at the V Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum (http://www.medvedev2008.ru/english_2008_02_15.htm), February 15, 2008 25. Akop Nazaretian, Synergetics in Humanitarian Knowledge. Preliminary Results, Social Sciences and Modernity, No. 2, 1997 (in Russian) 26. Gennady Onishchenko, Bioterrorism, Vestnik Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, Vol. 73, No. 3, 2003 (in Russian) 27. Appeal of Russian Science to the World Scientific Community, January, 2005 (in Russian) 28. Radiy Prasolov, Looking for Traces Left by the Operation of Modern Uranium-235 Nuclear Reactors, Proceedings of the Belorussian Academy of Sciences, Physics and Technology Series, No. 1, 1974 (in Russian) 29. Ilya Prigogine, Letter to Future Generations, 2000 30. Peter H. Raven, Science, Sustainability, and the Human Prospect, Science, Vol. 297, 2002 31. Anatoly Rakitov, Peeping into the Future, 2001 (in Russian) 32. Bertrand Russell, Albert Einstein et al., Manifesto, 1955 33. Nikolai Reimers, Hopes for Mankind's Survival, Conceptual Ecology, 1992 (in Russian) 34. Martin Rees, Our Final Hour, 2003 35. Viktor Sadovnichiy, A Wise Man's Way, V Mire Nauki, 1, 2006 (in Russian) 36. Andrey Sakharov, Pondering on the Progress, 1968 (in Russian) 37. Andrey Sakharov, The World in the Next 50 Years, 1974 (in Russian) 38. Andrey Sakharov, Nobel Lecture: Peace, Progress, Human Rights (http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/1975/sakharov-lecture.html), 1975 (in English) 39. Yevgeny Strigin, Infiltration Into the Kremlin, 2008 (in Russian)

Evgeny Abramyan. CIVILIZATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

296

40. Strobe Talbot, America Abroad; The Birth of the Global Nation, Time, July 20, 1992 41. Proceedings of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd International Conferences (2001, 2004 and 2006, Moscow): World Against Globalization of Crime and Terrorism (in Russian) 42. Nikolay Timofeev-Ressovsky, Biosphere and Humanity, 1968 (in Russian) 43. H.G. Wells, The World Set Free, 1913 44. Francis Fukuyama, The End of History?, 1992 45. Francis Fukuyama, Confucianism and Democracy, Journal of Democracy, 1995, Vol. 6, No 2 46. Francis Fukuyama, Has History Started Again?, 2002 47. Francis Fukuyama, After the Neocons: America at the Crossroads, 2006 48. Rafael Khakimov, Critical Thinking and Revamp of Islam, 2003 (in Russian) 49. John Harris, Clones, Genes, and Immortality: Ethics and the Genetic Revolution, Oxford University Press, 1998 50. The Earth Charter, 1999 51. Nikolai Shmelev, Why Did We Need "Perestroika"?, 2004 (in Russian) 52. Ekonomicheskiye Strategii (Economic Strategies) (in Russian) 53. Leonid Feoktistov, Igor Kuzmin, Viktor Popov, Energy and Technology of Tomorrow, Energiya, No. 8, 1996 (in Russian) 54. Clark R. Chapman and David Morrison, Impacts on the Earth by Asteroids and Comets: Assessing the Hazard, Nature, Vol. 367, 1994 55. Concept of Long-Term Social and Economic Development in the Russian Federation Until 2020, Government of the Russian Federation, 2008. Websites and pages 1. http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html. (Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project) 2. http://www.computerra.ru/xterra/37626/ 3. http://www.humansecuritynetwork.org 4. http:// www.membrana.ru 5. http:// www.planetspace.org 6. http://www.plesetzk.ru/index.php?p=topol-m&d=doc/rn 7. http://www.pmicro.kz (Sergey Lachinian, "Mental Drugs") 8. http://www.savefuture.net 9. http://www.war.lib.ru/ 10.http://www.dtic.mil/ndia/NLD3/camp.pdf/J.Cambell (Protection against Biodegradation of Military Material/Presentation at the 3rd Nonlethal Defense Symposium, Feb. 1998) 11. http://www.proza.ru/texts/2007/06/08-21.html). Alexei Turchin, Common Errors Associated with Global Risk Argumentation 12. http://zhurnal.lib.ru/m/melxnik_anatolij_antonowich/bomba-idoc.shtml, Anatoly Melnik, Do Not Look for Nuclear Briefcases 13. http://spkurdyumov.narod.ru/Panov.htm, A.D. Panov, Planetary Cycle Crisis in Universal History 14. http://filosof.historic.ru/books/, Vyacheslav Stepin, The Epoch of Change and Scenarios for the Future, 1996 15. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixI-mHeklyk, The Destiny of Civilization video. 16. http://katastrofa.h12.ru/turchin.htm, Alexei Turchin, The Structure of Global Catastrophe 17. http://www.wmdcommission.org/ 18. http://www.utechke-net.ru/ 19. http://spkurdyumov.narod.ru/Start1N.htm 20. http://spkurdyumov.narod.ru/Panov.htm 21. http://www.medvedev2008.ru/performance_2008_02_15.htm Scientific research works 1. Evgeny Abramyan, Boris Alterkop and Georgy Kuleshov, Intensive Electron Beams, 1984 2. Evgeny Abramyan, Industrial Electron Accelerators and Applications, 1988

The book addresses the main aspects of reality affecting the evolution of human civilization from psychological peculiarities to technological progress, from culture and education to environmental protection and space exploration. Although it is widely believed that making forecasts for the future is senseless, in the case where the very existence of mankind, its life or death, are at stake, we should analyze possible variants for the future and try our best to influence the course of events to make them develop according to the most favorable scenario. Slants and imperfections of human consciousness and mentality are often causes of various calamities from wars to premature deaths of million of people from starvation and diseases. Specifically, these problems include such human traits as aggression, presumptuousness, religious or ideological fanaticism, lack of compassion, laziness and self-distrust. The two world wars of the 20th century claimed many millions of human lives, and during the Cold War we came close to the edge of self-annihilation. The new type of warfare terrorist attacks have brought an appalling death toll among the civilian population throughout the world. Now that the means of destruction are getting increasingly sophisticated and their proliferation is fraught with the danger of their use by extremists, the only way for mankind to preserve itself is to stop the endless chain of wars and crises by way of negotiations and compromise. This can be achieved only through a number of radical steps. One of the possible variants is to develop and implement a set of global-scale projects. Let's provisionally call them consciousness, disarmament, technology, economy and geopolitics. These projects can be developed along the lines of the successful national and international programs of the recent past, such as the Manhattan Project, the Soviet nuclear and rocketry programs, the Apollo project and the European Union creation project. However, the problems we are dealing with would require us to rise by one level higher in terms of scale, complexity and duration as compared to the 20th century projects; this time we will be working exclusively for peaceful cause and purpose. We can no longer afford to limit ourselves to dreaming and projecting: Now it is time to work. Although these plans may seem to be reminiscent of the old utopian ideas of building a society of justice, the today's situation leaves us with no choice, but to establish a system of peaceful coexistence, a different system of life on the planet. Not to wait, but to forestall this motto should be adopted by humanity as a modus operandi if we do not want to face the doom of self-annihilation.