September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

September 2009
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Real Estate Market Report
October 8, 2009
provided courtesy of
and Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker,

Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors
October 8, 2009
HOME SALES REPORT

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County October 8, 2009
H
# Home S l
Sales 2008 2009 % Ch
Change
762
September ź 80 71 -11.25% 603
Year To Date ź 762 603 -20.87%

2008 2009
d 1
Median Sales Price 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
2008 2009 % Change $198k $189k
September Ÿ $199,942 $203,000 1.53%

Year To Date ź $197,900 $190,000 -3.99%
2008 2009
Average Sales Price 2008 2009 % Change $225k $220k
September Ÿ $216,034 $219,781 1.73%

Year To Date ź $223,704 $219,956 -1.68%
2008 2009
Average Days on Market

190
2008 2009 % Change 157
September Ÿ 200 219 9.50%

Year To Date Ÿ 167 189 13.17%
2008 2009
Perhaps as a result of the $8,000 tax credit, this month we see that home sales both the median sales price and average sales price increased when comparing
were not as low as could be expected given the year-to-date trends. During the first September 2009 sales to September 2008 sales. The year-to-date median and
nine months of this year, we have seen an overall decline of 21% in home sales, yet average sales prices are still showing declines (4%, 2%), so we won’t call this a trend
September 2009 versus September 2008 only shows a 11% decline. Furthermore, yet -- but hopefully a sign of positive changes to come.
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors. Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
October 8, 2009

Month-By-Month Home Sales History
200 2005
2006
2007
175 2008
2009
150
Single Familyy, Townhome & Condo Sales
125
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
100
95
86
75
75 77
71
50 57
53 51
1
37
25
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Between 2005 and 2008, sales declined an average of 28% between August and buyer to receive the $8,000 tax credit is November 30th, thus we will likely continue
September. This year, however, we have only seen an 8% decline in home sales. to see relatively strong sales through October and November, at least in the lower
This, again, is likely an elevated number of home sales related to the $8,000 tax price ranges, and as compared to previous years. Within the next month we should
credit to first time home buyers. The deadline for closing on a home as a first time also know whether Congress will extend this tax credit.
October 8, 2009

Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes
Sum of Preceding 12 Months
1,800
1,600
1,400
1 400
1,200
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
This graph tracks the overall pace of home sales in our market, after eliminating total number of home sales between October 1, 2008 and September 30, 2009.
the seasonal increases and decreases that we always experience regardless of Home sales continue to decline when examined from this perspective, and I predict
the annual pace of sales. Each data point on this graph represents the sum of the that we may see several more months of declines before this trendline (hopefully)
previous 12 months of home sales, thus the most recent data point is showing the stabilizes and starts to slowly increase.
October 8, 2009

Home Sales & Price Trends
Single Family Homes & Townhomes
1,800 $250,000
1,669
+11%
1,600
$195,500
$195,100
-14%
$190,000
1,507
+14% 1,438 +1% +0.2%
$200,000
1 400
1,400
1,324
-13%
$192,983
+15% 1,248
+14%
1,200 1,153
+8%
9,900
1,071 -25%
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
+14% $150 000
$150,000
$169
1,000
$149,000
+29% 936
+17%
829
-0.3% +4%
800 $127,700
$122,,900
$122,,588
+6%
00
$116,00
$100,000
603
600
400
$50,000
200
0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
This graph provides excellent overall insight into the performance of the residential between 2007 and 2008. The median sales price, shown with the blue line, continues
real estate market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We see, via the yellow to stay relatively stable, though with a slight decrease when comparing 2008 and
bars, that the pace of home sales will likely again show a decline when 2009 draws 2009. This decrease is actually a bit larger when considering the changes in the
to a close, though we are not likely to see another 25% decline as we experienced context of moderate year to year inflation.
October 8, 2009

Single Family Homes
1,200 $275,000
$226,800
0
$223,575
$215,000
$209,000
1,024 n/a 1,025
-11% -1%
-4%
1,000 $225,000
+16%
+8%
8% 909
868 +3% 880
$210,000
-2% 851 -12%
+24% 798
800 $175,000
+29%
-18%
00
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$170,00
674
+16% 654
+8%
$147,000
+2%
600 $125,000
$136,000
133,239
+9%
$122,850
$1
412
400 $75,000
200 $25,000
0 -$25,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Single family homes continue to show a moderate decline in median sales price, as but is quite mild within the context of sales price and value declines seen in most
shown by the blue line in this graph. We have now seen an overall decline of 7.8% other parts of Virginia and the nation as a whole. The pace of single family homes
between 2006 and 2009 year-to-date. This averages out to an approximate 2.5% also continues to slow, with only 412 home sales thus far this year, as compared to
decline per year during this time frame. This decline is unfortunate for home owners, the total of 654 sales in 2008.
October 8, 2009

Townhomes
700
50
$167,25
$163,800
644
$163,000
$160,850
$180,000
+2%
600 +2%
$160,000
+33% +19%
529
500 483 $140,000

-18% -15%
444 450
34,950
d 1 3,100
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$103 +9% +14% $120,000
+47%
$13
$94,600
400
$118,500
$89,000
+10%
+5% $100,000
$108,200
-37%
+9%
302
300 +6% 282
$80 000
$80,000
+49%
203 $60,000
191
200
+31%
155
$40,000
100
$20,000
0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Between 2006 and 2008, townhomes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County relatively small year-to-year shift in the number of townhomes in 2009 compared to
managed to escape the general sales price declines seen in the overall residential 2008. This is in contrast to the staggering 37% decline in townhome sales between
market. However, it appears that there will be a small downward shift in this median 2007 and 2008. This may be related to the $8,000 tax credit for first time home
home price by the time 2009 comes to a close. Thankfully, however, there has been a buyers, as many first time buyers purchase townhomes.
October 8, 2009

Inventory Levels
1200
1000
944 932 932
928 917 914
909 904
888
866
8
828 838
794
800
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
600
400
200
0
Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09
While our local market still has an excess of supply of homes for sale (as shown on trend is any indication, we should start to see steady declines in inventory as we
the next page), we do still see a decline in overall inventory levels when comparing move through October, November, December and January -- as many homeowners
September 2009 to September 2008. Ultimately, however, we will need to see more decide to take their homes off the market during this time frame. This will mean
of a decline to return to a closer balance between buyers and sellers. If last year’s (perhaps only marginally) fewer choices for buyers.
October 8, 2009

Housing Supply Trends by Price Range
$0 - $200k $200k - $300k $300k - $400k $400k +
30
27 27
25 25 26
25 25
24 25
24 24
23
22
22
20
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
16 16 16 17
16
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
15 15
14 14
13 13
12
12 12 12
11 11
10 10 10 10
10 10
8 9
8 8 8 8
8
0
Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09
The supply levels shown above are calculated by comparing the number of homes on the price range of the subject property. There is a gradually growing supply of
currently on the market with the average number sold per month over the past year. sub-$200k homes for sale, but this price range continues to have the healthiest
This graph examines supply trends in several different price ranges, and as becomes balance between buyers and sellers. The most serious inbalance is in the $400k+
quickly evident, the balance between buyers and sellers differs drastically depending price range where supply levels exceed two years.
October 8, 2009

Median Price Per Square Foot Trends
Single Family Homes
$150.00
$131
$130
$129
$128
$127
$126
$126
$126
$125
$125
$123
$121
$120
$119
$117
$125.00
$116
$115
$113
$
$105
$105
$99
$96
$100.00
$92
$90
$87
$86
84
83
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$82
2
$8
$8
$80
$79
$78
$77
$76
$76
$74
$73
$73
$73
$75.00
$50.00
$25.00
$0.00
2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1
Another measurement of value over time is shown in the median price per square is not an absolute guide on what to expect to pay for a house in today’s market, since
foot of single family homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- pictured this median value includes new homes, very old homes, homes with and without
above. As can be seen, this value has gradually shifted down since 2006, as we saw basements and garages, and many other variations of homes that could affect the
in the median sales price of single family homes during this same time period. This oversimplified value judgement of price per square foot.
October 8, 2009

Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size
Single Family Homes
0 - 1,499 SF 1,500 - 2,500 SF 2,500+ SF
150
$140
140 $138
$
$133
130 $128
$123 $123 $123
$120
120 $122 $116
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$113 $119
$115
110
$105
$106
100 $105
$93 $94
$89
90
$84 $92
$84
80 $77 $77 $83

$74
$71
70
$71 $72
$68
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Expect to pay a bit more per square foot for smaller homes --- it has been that way over the past nine years, but have separated quite dramatically over the past year.
for almost 10 years now. The graph above shows how median price per square foot Price per square foot of the largest homes in our market is now just over $100 per
varies based on the size of the house in question. Interestingly, the median price per square foot, while the median price per square foot of mid-sized homes is much
square foot of mid-sized and large homes have remained relatively closely paired closer to the overall median value for this metric.
October 8, 2009

Lot Sales & Median Prices
less than 1 acre
450 $120,000
408
$99,900
400
$100,000
350
$76,500
304
300 $80,000
5,250
d 1
261
7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$65
$58,300
247
250
$54,500
$60,000
201
200
$42,,000
$36,900
165
$32,208
$30,500
150 $40,000
$26,000
111
100 85
74
$20,000
50
30
0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The graph above illustrates the drastic decrease in lot sales that our local market longer buying building lots and building houses speculatively. Furthermore, many lot
has experienced over the past several years. With lot sizes smaller than one acre, “end users” are no longer considering building, because of changing circumstances
most of these lots are in subdivisions, on public water and sewer. The main cause with their finances, or because of general economic and market uncertainties. The
for this drastic decrease is that new construction has slowed -- most builders are no decrease in median lot prices is not surprising, given the large decrease in sales.
October 8, 2009

Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre
1 acre or more
180 $30,000
168
$24,184
160
$25,000
250
140
$21,2
$17,713
120 $20,000
107
24
$15,42
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
0
$15,000
100
87 $15,000
$12,003
83
80 76
$9,535 77
$8,333
$8,245
58
60 $10,000
53
42
40
$8,234
30
$5,000
20
0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Land sales of parcels larger than one acre have not decreased as significantly as land that is selling has slipped tremendously over the past two years, from a high
small lot sales have. We continue to see a decline, but aside from the spike in land of $24k per acre down to the current level of $15k per acre. This is likely to slip a
sales in 2005, there has always been quite a bit of variation in the number of land bit further if land sales continue to decline, or even if they continue to stay at their
sales happening in a given year. Of note, however, the median price per acre of the current low level.
October 8, 2009

New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends
Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
200
186
180 200
158
160
140 139
$144
138 137
140
$138
150
$150
121
146
d 1
120 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$1
109
$133
100
$114
89
100
105
$1
9
$99
80
$94
$87
60 56
50
40
20
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
This graph isolates new or almost new single family homes that have sold for each of metric includes houses with significant variation in their characteristics (basement,
the past ten years. We have seen a steady decline in the number of new construction garage, lot size), this price per square foot metric can likely be a helpful rule of thumb
single family homes selling since 2005, but of note, the median price per square foot in discussing price per square foot or building costs with a builder.
of these homes has not shifted as much as we might otherwise expect. While this
October 8, 2009
H i b
Harrisonburg R ki h
& Rockingham C
County
Days on Market Analysis
Residential Listings Sold Apr '09 - Sept '09
< 2 years
4
1%
1 - 2 years
53
12%
0 - 3 months
139
9 - 12 months 30%
45
d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
10%
6 - 9 months
67
15%
3 - 6 months
147
32%
Most homes that sell (62%) are selling (and closing) within six months of coming the closing table, it is quite remarkable that a full 30% of home sales in the past six
onto the market. This, of course, does not factor in the many (many) homes that months have taken place within 3 months of the date when those properties came
languish on the market and do not sell -- leading to a higher average days on market on the market. This means that they were under contract within the first 30 or 45
statistic. Given that it typically takes 45 - 60 days to move from a ratified contract to days of being listed, which is likely a surprising figure for many hopeful sellers.
October 8, 2009

Days on Market Analysis by Price Range
April 2009 - September 2009
0 -3 Months 3 - 6 Months 6 - 9 Months 9 - 12 Months 1 - 2 Years 2+ Years
All Homes 31% 32% 15% 10% 12%
Under $200k 37% 31% 13% 11% 9%

d 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
$200k - $300k 27% 33% 17% 6% 14% 2%
$300k - $400k 7% 40% 24% 14% 14%
$400k and up 26% 26% 7% 15% 26%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
The time that it takes to sell a home in today’s market varies quite significantly based time period. On the other end of the spectrum, only 9% of homes that sold for less
on the price range of the home in question. For example, a full 37% of homes that than $200,000 took more than a year to sell, but a full 26% of homes priced over
sold for less than $200,000 sold in the first 90 days of being on the market, while $400,000 took over a year to sell.
only 7% of homes between $300,000 and $400,000 were able to sell in that same

September 2009 Harrisonburg &amp; Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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September 2009

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

and Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker,

HOME SALES REPORT

September ź 80 71 -11.25% 603

Year To Date ź 762 603 -20.87%

September Ÿ $199,942 $203,000 1.53%

Average Sales Price 2008 2009 % Change $225k $220k

September Ÿ $216,034 $219,781 1.73%

Average Days on Market

September Ÿ 200 219 9.50%

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

500 483 $140,000

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

80 $77 $77 $83

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

All Homes 31% 32% 15% 10% 12%

Under $200k 37% 31% 13% 11% 9%

$200k - $300k 27% 33% 17% 6% 14% 2%

$300k - $400k 7% 40% 24% 14% 14%

$400k and up 26% 26% 7% 15% 26%

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September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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