Ch04-Solns-All Skuce 2e

Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 4
Chapter 4 Solutions

Develop Your Skills 4.1
1a. Sample space:
246 employees commute more than 40 km by car
350-246=104 commute s 40 km by car

P(randomly selected employee commutes > 40 km by car) = 246/350 = 0.7029

1b. Sample space:
150 employees arrange rides with others
350-150=200 ride alone
P(randomly selected employee arranges rides with others) = 150/350 = 0.4286

Note that the sample space need not be more complicated than necessary. A full
description of the sample space, for both worker characteristics (commuting distance
and arranging rides) could look as follows.

Commuting Characteristics of Car Part Manufacturing Plant
Arrange Rides With Others Ride Alone Totals
Commute > 40 km 246-135=111 135 246
Commute s 40 km 104-65=39 200-135=65 350-246=104
Totals 150 350-150=200 350

2. Sample space:
We are interested only in managers, so the sample space is as follows:

Only High-School Education: 0
Grad Degree Or Post-Grad Studies: 10
up To 4 Years Of Post-Secondary Education: 37 10 0 = 27

P(randomly selected manager has up to 4 years of post-secondary
education)=27/37=0.7297

3. Sample space:
Professional Employees: 372
Managers: 37
(Note that "managerial" and "professional" are separate job classifications, so
managers are not included in the count of professional workers.)
Clerical Employees: 520-372-37 = 111

P(randomly selected employee is professional) = 372/520 = 0.7154
P(randomly selected employee is clerical) = 111/520 = 0.2135

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 65
4. Sample space:

Shoppers Doing A Quick Trip: 62
Shoppers Doing A Major Stock-Up: 13
Shoppers Doing A Fill-In Shop: 100-62-13=25

P(randomly selected customer is doing a fill-in shop) = 25/100 = 0.25

5. Sample space:

Loved Previous Math Courses: 56
Worked Very Hard In Previous Math Courses, But Did Not Enjoy Them, Or Thought
Previous Math Courses Were Far Too Difficult, Or Equated Previous Math Courses
With Sticking Needles In The Eyes: 225-56=169

P(randomly selected student did not love his/her previous math
courses)=169/225=0.7511

6. These probabilities are given:
P(pays with credit card) =P(CC) = 0.80
P(buys something other than gas) P(OTG) = 0.25
P(pays with credit card and buys something other than gas) =P(CC & OTG)= 0.20

Want to know
P(pays with credit card GIVEN buys something other than gas)
= P(CC OTG)
80 . 0
25 . 0
20 . 0
) OTG ( P
) OTG & CC ( P
= = =

Also want to know
P(buys something other than gas GIVEN pays with a credit card)
=P(OTG CC)
25 . 0
80 . 0
20 . 0
) CC ( P
) OTG & CC ( P
= = =

To check for independence, compare P(CC OTG) with P(CC).
The two probabilities are equal. So, paying with a credit card and buying something
other than gas are independent (not related).

7. P(honey-nut flavour GIVEN family size box)
5714 . 0
315
180
) size family P(
) size family & nut P(honey
= =
=
To check for independence, compare this with
P(honey-nut flavour)
900
180 315 +
= = 0.55
Since the two probabilities are NOT equal, the events are NOT independent, that is,
the size of the box and the flavour are related, in terms of sales.

8. P(female given employed in agriculture industry)

2951 . 0
327
5 . 96
) 5 . 230 5 . 96 (
5 . 96
= =
+
=

P(employed in public administration, given male)

0503 . 0
3 . 021 , 9
454
= =

P(employed in public administration)

0541 . 0
8 . 125 , 17
7 . 925
) 5 . 104 , 8 3 . 021 , 9 (
7 . 471 454
= =
+
+
=

Since P(employed in public administration, given male) P(employed in public
administration), we can say that sex of the employee and industry of employment
were not independent in Canada in 2008. However, the difference in probabilities is
not that great (both are around 5%).

However, we can see that
P(employed in manufacturing)

1150 . 0
8 . 125 , 17
3 . 970 , 1
) 5 . 8104 3 . 021 , 9 (
9 . 559 4 . 410 , 1
= =
+
+
=

which is not equal to
P(employed in manufacturing given male)
1563 . 0
3 . 021 , 9
4 . 410 , 1
= =

This is more convincing evidence that sex of the employee was not independent of the
industry of employment in Canada in 2008.
9. It is easiest to proceed if we first compute row and column totals for the table.

Accounts Receivable for a Roofing Company
amount
age s$5,000 $5,000 - <$10,000 >$10,000 total
< 30 days 12 15 10 37
30 - <60 days 7 11 2 20
60 days and over 3 4 1 8
total 22 30 13 65

For the accounts receivable at this roofing company:
P(< 30 days ) = 37/65 = 0.5692
P( < 30 days s$5000) = 12/22 = 0.5455
Since the two probabilities are not equal, account age and amount are not
independent.

10. First calculate the row and column totals to make the probability calculations easier.

Customer Survey for a Dry Cleaning Company
Service
Rating
Will Use
Services Again
Will Not Use
Services Again
Total
Poor 174 986 1,160
Fair 232 928 1,160
Good 2,436 174 2,610
Excellent 754 116 870
Total 3,596 2,204 5,800

P(customer will use dry cleaning companys services again)
= =
5800
3596
0.62

P(customer will not use the dry cleaning companys services again, given a rating of
good or excellent)
0833 . 0
870 2610
116 174
=
+
+
=

This is interesting, because about 8% of customers are not planning on using the dry
cleaning companys services again, even though they rate the service as good or
excellent. Clearly something other than the service is keeping these customers away.

To test for independence, we could compare P(customer will not use the dry cleaning
companys services again) with the conditional probability we just calculated above.

P(customer will not use the dry cleaning companys services again)
=1 P(customers will use dry cleaning companys services again)
=1 0.620 = 0.38 = 0.0833

Since these probabilities are not equal, the events are not independent. There is a
relationship between the rating of the service and the tendency to use it again.
Overall, 38% of customers dont plan to use the service again. However, only about
8% of those who rated the service positively dont plan to use it again.

11. We are told that the two employees live in different parts of the city, and so
presumably could not be held up by the same traffic problems. Assume that each
employees lateness is independent of the others lateness. Then
P(both are late)
=P(Jane is late and Oscar is late)
=0.02 0.04 = 0.0008
The probability is low that both Jane and Oscar will be late for work.

12. We are told the friends are very different, and will assume that any one of them
getting a job in the financial services industry is independent of the others getting
such a job. Label the friends 1, 2 and 3.

a. P(all three of them succeed)
=P(1 does and 2 does and 3 does)
=0.4 0.5 0.35 = 0.07

b. P(none of them succeeds)
=P(1 does not and 2 does not and 3 does not)
=(1-0.4)(1-0.5)(1-0.35)
=0.60.50.65=0.195

c. P(at least one of them succeeds)
=1-P(none of them succeeds)
=1-0.195= 0.805
Using the complement rule here is a life-saver!

13. P(game aimed at 15-25 year olds succeeding) = 0.34
P(accounting program for small business succeeding) = 0.12
P(payroll system for government organizations succeeding) = 0.10
We are told to assume that the events are independent.
P(all three succeed) = 0.34 0.12 0.10 = 0.00408

For calculation of at least two out of three succeeding, we need to think about what
this means, in terms of the sample space. At least two out of three succeeding means
exactly two out of the three succeeding, or all three succeeding. A tree diagram
might be helpful to picture this. We need to calculate and add the probabilities for
the cases shown in bolded letters on the right-hand side of the tree diagram.

0.90
0.10 S
F
0.10 S
F
0.90
S
payroll
system
F
0.90
0.10
0.88
0.12
F
0.12
0.88
accounting
program
0.90
0.10
S
F
0.66
0.34
game
F
S
S
F
S
SSS
SSF
SFS
SFF
FSS
FSF
FFS
FFF

Once we have the cases identified, it is just a matter of arithmetic.

P(at least two out of three succeed)
=(0.34 0.12 0.10)+(0.34 0.12 0.90)+(0.34 0.88 0.10)+(0.66 0.12 0.10)
=0.00408+0.03672+0.02992+0.00792=0.07864

14. A fully-labelled tree diagram for the GeorgeConn customer data is shown below.
R
U
S
N
S
N
P(NR)=1/4
P(U)=6/10
P(NU)=2/6
P(SU)=4/6
P(R)=4/10
P(SR)=3/4
P(U and N)=0.2
P(U and S)=0.4
P(R and N)=0.1
P(R and S)=0.3

Another way to set up the tree diagram:
S
N
R
U
R
U
P(US)=4/7
P(N)=3/10
P(UN)=2/3
P(RN)=1/3
P(S)=7/10
P(RS)=3/7
P(N and U)=0.2
P(N and R)=0.1
P(S and U)=0.4
P(S and R)=0.3


15. P(hourly worker or only high school education)
=P(hourly worker) + P(only high school education) P(hourly worker and only high
school education)
= (790+265+2)/1345 + (790+7+1+0)/1345 790/1345
= (790 + 265 + 2 + 7 + 1)/1345
= 1065/1345
= 0.7918

Chapter Review Exercises

1. P(account paid early)
= =
750
119
0.1587

P(account paid on time)
= =
750
320
0.4267

P(account paid late)
= =
750
200
0.2667

P(account uncollectible)
= =
750
111
0.1480

2. The probability calculations may seem easier if you organize the information into a
table, as follows.

Business Diploma No Business Diploma Total
Men 30 30 60
Women 25 15 40
Total 55 45 100

a. P(employee is a man)
= =
100
60
0.60

b. P(employee is a man with a Business diploma)
= =
100
30
0.30

c. P(employee is a woman)
= =
100
40
0.40

d. P(employee is a woman with a Business diploma)
= =
100
25
0.25

e. P(employee has a Business diploma)
= =
100
55
0.55

f. P(employee is a man without a Business diploma)
= =
100
30
0.30

g. P(employee is without a Business diploma)
= =
100
45
0.45

h. P(employee is a woman without a Business diploma)
= =
100
15
0.15

i. P(employee is a woman or employee with a Business diploma)
= + =
100
25
100
55
100
40
0.70

j. P(employee is a man or employee with a Business diploma)
= + =
100
30
100
55
100
60
0.85

k. P(employee is a woman or employee without a Business diploma)
= + =
100
15
100
45
100
40
0.70

l. P(employee is a man or employee without a Business diploma)
= + =
100
30
100
45
100
60
0.75

3. P(employee has Business diploma given she is a woman)

= =
40
25
0.625

To test to see if gender and possession of a Business diploma are related for
GeorgeConn employees, we can compare the probability above to

P(employee has a Business diploma)

= =
100
55
0.55

P(employee has Business diploma given she is a woman)) P(employee has a
Business diploma), so gender and possession of a Business diploma are related for
GeorgeConn employees. Female employees are more likely to have a Business
diploma.

4. P(caller directly connected) = 0.80
P(caller forced to wait) = 0.20

P(caller connected directly for three different calls)
= P(caller connected on first day AND connected on second day AND connected on
third day)
= 0.8 0.8 0.8
= 0.512

P(caller forced to wait for three different calls)
= P(caller forced to wait on first day AND forced to wait on second day AND forced
to wait on third day)
= 0.2 0.2 0.2
= 0.008

5. Start by totalling the rows and columns of the table. This will speed up the
probability calculations.

a. P(primary skill is bookkeeping)
= =
100
30
0.30

b. P(employee has less than one year of experience)
= =
100
50
0.50

c. P(primary skill is reception)
= =
100
25
0.25

d. P(employee has one to two years of experience)
= =
100
23
0.23

e. P(primary skill is document management)
= =
100
45
0.45

f. P(employee has more than two years of experience)
= =
100
27
0.27

6. Begin by totalling rows and columns.

Survey of Restaurant Customers
Opinion About Food Satisfied with Service Not Satisfied with Service Totals
Excellent 0.36 0.06 0.42
Good 0.18 0.07 0.25
Fair 0.10 0.08 0.18
Poor 0.05 0.10 0.15
Totals 0.69 0.31

a. P(customer is satisfied with service and rates the food as poor)
= 0.05

b. P(customer is not satisfied with service)
= 0.31

c. P(not satisfied with service given food rated as poor)
= =
15 . 0
10 . 0
0.6667

d. To test for independence, we could compare the probability in part c with
P(not satisfied with service)
=0.31

The two probabilities are not equal, so the service rating and the food rating are
related (that is, NOT independent). People who rate the food as poor are more likely
to be dissatisfied with the service.

7. P(salesperson will exceed targets two years in a row)
= P(salesperson exceeds target this year and exceeds target next year)
= P(exceeds target this year) P(exceeds target next year exceeds target this year)
= 0.78 0.15 = 0.0117

8. Begin by summing rows and columns of the table.

Follow-up Survey of Customers
Who Bought Netbook Computers

Satisfied Not Satisfied Totals
1 GB of RAM or Less 0.30 0.05 0.35
More than 1 GB of RAM 0.50 0.15 0.65
Totals 0.80 0.20

a. P(satisfied with his/her purchase)
= 0.30 + 0.50 = 0.80

b. P(satisfied with his/her purchase more than 1 GB of RAM)
= 0.50/(0.50 + 0.15) = 0.7692

c. The amount of RAM affects whether or not the purchaser was satisfied with his/her
purchase. P(satisfied more than 1 GB of RAM) = 0.7692 P(satisfied) = 0.80.
Customers who bought netbooks with more than 1 GB of RAM were less likely to be
satisfied with their purchases. This may seem odd, because generally more RAM
means a better computer. However, it is possible that customers buying machines
with more RAM had higher performance expectations that could not be met with
slower processors.

9. A tree diagram is helpful:

P(pass with no more than two attempts)
= P(pass the first time) + P(fail the first time and pass the second time)
= 0.75 + 0.225 = 0.975

10. Again, begin by summing rows and columns in the table.

Customers of an Insurance Company
Single Married Divorced Totals
Male 25 125 30 180
Female 50 50 20 120
Totals 75 175 50
P(P)=0.75
P
F
P
F
P(F and P)
=0.25 0.90
=0.225
P(F and F)
=0.25 0.10
=0.025
P(P)=0.75
P(PF)=0.90
P(FF)=0.10
P(F)=0.25

a. P(female or married)
= P(female) + P(married) P( female and married)
= (50+50+20)/300 + (125 + 50)/300 50/300
= (50 + 50 + 20 + 125 + 50 - 50)/300 = 245/300 = 0.8167

b. P(married male)
= P(married and male)/P(male)
= (125/300) / (25 + 125 + 30)/300
= 125/ (180) =0.6944

c. P(married)
= (125 + 50)/300 = 0.5833 P(married male) = 0.6944
Since the probabilities are not equal, gender and marital status are not independent.

11. R: market rises
R
C
: market does not rise
P: newsletter predicts rise
P
C
: newsletter predicts market will not rise
R
R
C

P
P
C
P
P
C
P(R and P)
=0.60 0.70
P(P
C
R)=0.30
P(R
C
)=0.40
P(P
C
R
C
)=0.70
P(PR
C
)=0.30
P(R)=0.60
P(PR)=0.70
=0.42
P(R and P
C
)
=0.60 0.30
=0.18
P(R
C
and P)
=0.40 0.30
=0.12
P(R
C
and P
C
)
=0.40 0.70
=0.28

P(correct prediction)
= P(market rises and newsletter predicts rise)
+ P(market does not rise and newsletter predicts market will not rise)
= 0.42 + 0.28 (from tree diagram)
= 0.70

12. P(all of the students selected by the company are female)
= 6/10 5/9 4/8
= 120/720 = 0.1667

P(all of the students selected by the company are male)
= 4/10 3/9 2/8
= 24/720 = 0.0333

13. If we can identify one situation where gender and tendency to use the health facilities
are related, we can say that gender and the tendency to use health facilities are
related.

Compare P(used the facilities) with P(used the facilities male)
P(used the facilities) = 210/350 = 0.6
P(used the facilities male) = 65/170 = 0.3824
Since these two probabilities are not equal, gender and tendency to use the health and
fitness facilities are not independent (that is, they are related).

14.
U
D
M
F
M
F
P(U and M)
=65/350
P(FU)=145/210
P(D)= 140/350
P(FD)=35/140
P(MD)=105/140
P(U)= 210/350
P(MU)=65/210
=0.1857
P(U and F)
=145/350
=0.4143
P(D and M)
=105/350
=0.3
P(D and F)
=35/350
=0.1

The joint probabilities are the same, as we would expect them to be.

15. One of the ways to test for independence (or lack of it) is as follows.

P(purchased the product)
= =
300
228
0.76

P(purchased the product given saw the TV ad)
188
152
36 152
152
=
+
= = 0.8085

These two probabilities are not equal, so purchasing behaviour is related to seeing
the TV ad. Those who saw the ad were more likely to purchase the product.

16. A: Brenda moves to Alberta
A
C
: Brenda does not move to Alberta
B: Brenda is offered the job at Canadas largest bank
B
C
: Brenda is not offered the job at Canadas largest bank

B
B
C

A
A
C
A
P(B
C
and A
C
)
=0.75 0.65
=0.4875
P(A
C
B)=0.3
P(B
C
)=0.75
P(A
C
B
C
)=0.65
P(AB
C
)=0.35
P(B)=0.25
P(AB)=0.7
A
C

P(B and A)
=0.25 0.7
=0.175
P(B and A
C
)
=0.25 0.3
=0.075
P(B
C
and A)
=0.75 0.35
=0.2625

From the tree diagram:
P(Brenda will be offered the job and not move to Alberta) = 0.075

17. I: Canadian adult has taken instruction in canoeing
I
C
: Canadian adult has not taken instruction in canoeing
CT: Canadian adult is going on a canoe trip this summer
CT
C
: Canadian adult is not going on a canoe trip this summer
P(CT
C
I
C
)=0.80
P(CT I
C
)=0.20
P(CT
C
I)=0.54
P(CT I)=0.46
P(I
C
)=0.97
P(I)=0.03
CT
CT
C
CT
C
CT
I
C
I
P(I and CT)
=0.03 0.46
=0.0138
P(I and CT
C
)
=0.03 0.54
=0.0162
P(I
C
and CT)
=0.97 0.20
=0.194
P(I
C
and CT
C
)
=0.97 0.80
=0.776

18. P(a randomly-selected Canadian adult is going on a canoe trip this summer, and has
taken some canoeing instruction) = 0.0138
P(a randomly-selected Canadian adult is going on a canoe trip this summer, and has
not taken any canoeing instruction) = 0.194

19. P(a randomly-selected customer from one of these stores uses a cash/debit card or a
credit card for payment) = (150 + 180)/500 = 0.66

20. If we can identify one situation where payment method and store location are related,
we can say that they are related in general.

One approach is to compare P(cheque) with P(cheque Store A)
P(cheque) = 170/500 = 0.34
P(cheque Store A) = 30/100 = 0.30
Since these two probabilities are not equal, payment method and store location are
not independent.

21. For people who visit the facility:
P(buy a membership) = 0.40
P(buy a membership and sign up for fitness classes) = 0.30
P(fitness classes bought a membership)
=0.30/0.40 = 0.75

22. Buying a membership and signing up for fitness classes are NOT mutually exclusive.
We are told that P(buy a membership and sign up for fitness classes) = 0.30 0. A
person can do both, so the events are not mutually exclusive.

We cannot assess independence without more information. For example if we knew
P(fitness classes), we could compare that with P(fitness classes bought a
membership).

23. If we can identify one situation where gender and type of alcoholic drink are related,
we can say that they are related in general.
However, there is no case where gender and type of alcoholic drink are related.

P(wine) = (36 + 54)/(42 + 63 + 36 + 54 + 22 + 33)=90/250=0.36
P(wine female) = 54/(63 + 54 + 33) = 0.36
P(wine male) = 36/(42 + 36 + 22) = 0.36
So we can see that P(wine) = P(wine female) = P(wine male).

Similarly, P(beer) = P(beer female) = P(beer male).

As well, P(other alcoholic drinks) = P(other alcoholic drinks female)
= P(other alcoholic drinks male).

We cannot identify a situation where gender and type of alcoholic drink are not
independent, so we conclude that gender and type of alcoholic drink ordered are
independent in this sample.

24. 500 circuit boards, of which 30 are defective, 470 are not defective
P(all three are defective)
=30/500 29/499 28/498
=24,360/124,251,000 = 0.000196054

P(defective board on 1
st
selection) = 30/500 = 0.06
P(all 3 boards defective, assuming independence) = 0.06 0.06 0.06 = 0.000216
The probabilities agree, to four decimal places.

25. In this case, we are stuck. We have only one probability (25%), but we do not have
independent events. Once the first randomly-selected Canadian is asked about RRSP
plans, he/she is removed from further consideration. Depending whether this person
plans to make an RRSP contribution over the next year, this will affect the 25%
probability of making a contribution. However, it will not affect it very much,
because there are many millions of Canadians. So, although the events are not really
independent, we can still use the probability as if they were.

P(all four intend to contribute to their RRSPs over the next year)
= 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 = 0.0039

26. This looks like a long and complicated question, but it isn't, as long as the
information is organized properly. You can use the Sort tool (under the Data tab) in
Excel to help organize the data as you require it (the use of the Sort tool was
described in Chapter 1). You might also explore the use of the Filter tool (use Excel's
Help function if you can't see how it works.) There are 24 employees in total.

a. P(employee has low experience)
= =
24
13
0.5417

P(employee has high experience)
= =
24
11
0.4583

P(employee has a specialty in spreadsheet software)
= =
24
11
0.4583

P(employee has a specialty in presentation software)
= =
24
4
0.1667

b. There are 11 employees who specialize in spreadsheet software.

P(first employee selected has high experience given specialization in spreadsheet
software)
= =
11
4
0.3636

P(second employee selected has high experience given specialization in spreadsheet
software given first employee had high experience given specialization in
spreadsheet software)
= =
10
3
0.30

P(both employees selected have high experience, given specialization in spreadsheet
software)
110
12
10
3
11
4
= - = =0.1091

P(at least one of the two employees has high experience)
= 1 P(none of the employees has high experience)
6182 . 0
110
68
110
42
1
10
6
11
7
1 = = =
|
.
|
\
|
- =

c. The joint probability table is shown below.

Database
Software
Presentation
Software
Spreadsheet
Software
Word Processing
Software
Totals
Low 0 4 7 2 13
High 1 0 4 6 11
Totals 1 4 11 8 24

P(high experience, given specialty is word processing)
= =
8
6
0.75

P(low experience, given specialty is spreadsheet)
= =
11
7
0.6364

d. The joint probability table is shown below.

Database
Software
Presentation
Software
Spreadsheet
Software
Word Processing
Software
Totals
F 0 3 5 4 12
M 1 1 6 4 12
Totals 1 4 11 8 24

P(word processing specialization given female)
= =
12
4
0.3333

P(male given spreadsheet specialization)
= =
11
6
0.5455

e. Because the tree diagram has three stages, it takes up an entire page (see the next
page).

Notice that the end-stage probabilities could have been calculated directly from the
table of information about the employees. It is useful to explore the structure of the
sample space with the tree diagram.

M: Male
F: Female

D: Specializes in Database Software
P: Specializes in Presentation Software
S: Specializes in Spreadsheet Software
W: Specializes in Word Processing Software

L: Low Experience
H: High Experience


L
0

0/1
D 1/1
1/24
H
1/12
1/24
L
1/1
P
0/1
1/12
H
0
M 3/24
L
6/12
3/6
S
3/6
3/24
H 12/24
4/12
1/24
1/4 L
W
3/4
3/24
H
0
0/0 L
0/0
D
0
H
0/12
3/24
12/24 3/3 L
3/12 P
0/3
0 H
F
4/24 5/12
4/5 L
S
1/5
1/24
H
4/12
1/24 1/4 L
W
3/4
H 3/24
f. This tree diagram is just another way of representing the sample space. The end-
stage probabilities match those in part e.

1/24
D
P
S
W
D
P
S
W
D
P
S
W
D
M
1/7
0/7
3/7
3/7
F
M
3/8
0/8
1/8
4/8
F
H
7/11
L
8/13

1/5
3/5
1/5
0/5
3/4
1/4
0/4
0/4
5/13
4/11
11/24
13/24
W
S
P
0/24
3/24
3/24
0/24
0/24
1/24
3/24
0/24
1/24
3/24
1/24
0/24
3/24
4/24
1/24

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Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 4

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