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‫ﺃأﻱي ﺣﻞ ﳌﺸ ﻠﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬
‫ﺍا ﻜﻮﻣﻲ ﻣﺼﺮ؟‪  ‬‬
‫ﺩدﺍاﻟﻴﺒﻮﺭر ﺭرﻭو ﺎ ﺶ‪  ‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻣﺤﻠ ‪  ‬ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﻣﺮﻛﺰ )ﺍا ﺮﺔ ﻭو ﺯزﺩد ﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ(‪  ‬ﺍاﻟﺘﺎ ﻊ ﻟـ)ﻣﻌ ﺪ ﻛﻴﺘﻮ(‪  ‬‬

‫‪Solving Egypt’s Subsidy Problem‬‬
‫‪Dalibor Rohac‬‬
‫‪  ‬‬

‫ﺗﺮﺟﻤﺔ‪  :‬ﻋ ﺍا ﺎﺭرﺱس‪  ‬‬
‫‪  ‬‬

‫‪52‬‬

‫ﻣ ﺺ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻱي‪  ‬‬
‫ﺸ ﻞ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺣﻮﺍا ﺛﻠﺚ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ ﺳ ﻼﻛﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻤﺎ ﻓ ﺎ ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﻭوﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‪،‬‬

‫ﻢ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺒﻠﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻮ ﺴﺘ ﻑف )‪  (%13‬ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍاﻟﻮﻃ ‪   .‬ﻭوﻻ ﺗﻘﺘﺼﺮ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕت ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﻋ‬

‫ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓة‬

‫ﻋﺪﻡم ﻛﻔﺎﺀءﺗﻪﮫ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮﺍاﺀء‪ ،‬ﻓ ﻮ ﻳﻤﺜﻞ ﻳﻮﻣﺎ ﻌﺪ ﻳﻮﻡم ﺳ ﺒﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﺳﺒﺎﺏب ﺍاﻟ ﺪﺭر ﺍاﻟﻼﻣﺴﺘﺪﺍاﻡم ﻟﻸﻣﻮﺍاﻝل‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭوﺍاﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺟﻨ ﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ‪  .‬ﻭوﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺬﻩ ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﻓﺈﻥن‬

‫ﻣﻞ ﺑﺈﺻﻼﺡح ﺬﻩ ﺍاﳌﺸ ﻠﺔ ﻌﺘ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺍاﻟﺸﺎﺋﻜﺔ‬
‫ﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍاﺭر‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻌﻮﺩد ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺳﺒﺎﺏب ﺇإ ﺃأﻥن ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣ ﺎ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺑ ﺌﺔ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺗﻔﺘﻘﺮ ﺇإ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺸ ﻞ ﺩدﺍاﺓة ﺍاﻟﺮﺋ ﺴﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﻋﺎﻧﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺃأﺛﺮ ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺍاﻗﺘﻔﻴﻨﺎ ‪  ‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﻭوﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺳ ﻼﻛﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻓﺴﻨﺠﺪ ﺑﺄ ﺎ ﻌﻮﺩد ﺇإ ﺃأﻭوﺍاﺋﻞ ﻋﺸﺮ ﻴﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻘﺮﻥن ﺍاﳌﺎ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ‬

‫؛ ﻭو ﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺍاﻟﻴﻮﻡم ﺍاﻟﻜﺜ ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﻘﺎﺭر ﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻭوﻃﺄﺓة ﺬﻩ ﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت ﺃأﻭو ﺍاﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣ ﺎ ﻠﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ‬
‫ﺍاﳌﺤﺎﻭوﻻﺕت ﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺒﻠﺪ‪،‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻣﻨ ﺖ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﺸﻞ‬

‫ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﻣﺎ ﻧﻈﺮﻧﺎ ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍاﻟﺮﺍا ﻦ ﻓﺴ ﺴﺘ ﺘﺞ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺃأﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻓﻌﻠﻪﮫ ﻮ ﺍاﻟ ﻮﺀء ﺇإ‬
‫ﻭوﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﻘﺮﺍاﺀء‪  .‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻭو ﺳﺘﻌﺎﺿﺔ ﻋﻨﻪﮫ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻧﻪﮫ ﺃأﻥن‬

‫ﻳﺆﺩدﻱي ﺇإ ﺗﻮﻓ ﻛﺒ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺇإﻧﻪﮫ ﻣﻦ ﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍاﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺎ‪  .‬ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺃأﺭرﺩدﻧﺎ ﺍاﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡح‬
‫ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺧﺮﻯى ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﻮﺩد‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻓﻼ ﺑﺪ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺮﺍاﻓﻘ ﺎ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﻜﻤﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺴ ﺪﻑف ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍا ﻌﺪﺍاﻡم ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍا ﻲ ﻭوﺗﺤﺴ ﻥن ﺳﻼﺳﻞ ﺍاﻟ ﻭو ﺪ‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺍاﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺲ‪   .‬ﺛﻢ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﺧﺘﺘﺎﻡم ﺍا‬
‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﻣﺎﻛﺮﻭوﺍاﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﺣﻜﻴﻤﺔ )ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴ ﺎ‪  :‬ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘ‬
‫ﺍاﺣﺘﻮﺍاﺀء ﺍاﻟﺘﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت ﺍاﳌﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻻﺭرﺗﻔﺎﻉع ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد‬
‫ﻓﻘﺮﺍا‪  .‬‬
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‫ﻮﺩد ﺑﺎﺗﺒﺎﻉع‬

‫ﻢ(‪  ‬ﻻ ﻏ ﻋ ﺎ‬
‫ﻭوﺟﻪﮫ ﺳﺮ ﺷﺪ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪  ‬‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﺣﺪﺙث ﻌﺪ ﺍاﻧﻘﻼﺏب ‪ 30‬ﻳﻮﻧﻴﻮ ﻣﺼﺮ ﻳﺒ ّ ﻥن ﻟﻨﺎ ﺃأﻥن ﺭرﺣﻠﺔ ﻣﺼﺮ ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﻔﺘﺤﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺣﺮ ﺳﺘ ﻮﻥن ﺭرﺣﻠﺔ ﻃﻮ ﻠﺔ ﺗﻜﺘﻨﻔ ﺎ ﺍاﻟﺼﻌﻮ ﺎﺕت؛ ﻭو ﻠﻨﺎ ﺃأﻣﻞ‬
‫ﺑﺄﻥن ﺗﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻼ‬

‫ﻧﺰﻻﻕق ﺇإ ﺣﺮﺏب ﺃأ ﻠﻴﺔ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺄﻥن ﻻ ﺗﺘﻜﺮﺭر ﻣﺸﺎ ﺪ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﻨﻒ ﺍاﻟﺮ ﻴﺒﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺷﺎ ﺪﻧﺎ ﺎ ﻌﺪ ﺇإﻣﺴﺎﻙك ﺍا ﺶ ﺑﻤﻘﺎﻟﻴﺪ ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺄﻥن ﺴﺘﺠﻴﺐ‬
‫ﻗﻴﺎﺩدﺓة ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد ﳌﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺍاﻟﺸﻌﺐ ﺑﺘﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﺍاﻟﻨﻔﺎﺫذ ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﻔﺮﺹص‬

‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﻭو ﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻣﺴﺆﻭوﻟﺔ‪  .‬ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﻏﻀﻀﻨﺎ ﺍاﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺸ ﻠﺔ ﻗﻮﺓة ﺍا ﺶ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻏﻀﺐ ﺍا ﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕت‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻳ ﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﳌﻴﺪﺍاﻥن ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻳ ﻨﺎﺯزﻋﻪﮫ ﺍا ﻼﻑف‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﻨﻼﺣﻆ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺒﻠﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺬﻱي‬

‫ﻳﺘﻔﻮﻕق ﻌﺪﺩد ﺳ ﺎﻧﻪﮫ ﻋ ﺃأﻱي ﺩدﻭوﻟﺔ ﻋﺮ ﻴﺔ ﺃأﺧﺮﻯى‪ ،‬ﻌﺎ ﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸ ﻠﺔ ﺃأﻛ ﻣﺴﺎﺳﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻴﺎﺓة ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜ ﺎ ﺗﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍاﳌﺸﻜﻼﺕت ﺧﺮﻯى‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﺇإ ﺎﺣ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻣﺸ ﻠﺔ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺍاﻟﻼﻣﺴﺘﺪﺍاﻡم‪  .‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﺛﻠﺚ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﻳﺨﺼﺺ ﺳﻨﻮ ﺎ ﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺳﻠﻊ ﺍاﺳ ﻼﻛﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﺗ ﺍاﻭوﺡح ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺸﺎﻱي؛ ﻭوﻗﺪ ﻭوﺻﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﺐﺀء ﺍاﳌﺎ ﻟ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﺇإ ﺃأﻛ ﻣﻦ )‪   (%13‬ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍاﻟﻮﻃ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺇإﻥن ﺍاﺳﺘ ﺍاﺩد ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺴﺘ ﻑف ﺍاﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺟﻨ ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻟﻢ ﺗﺤﺎﻓﻆ ﻣﺴﺘﻮ ﺎﺕت ﺬﺍا ﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ‬
‫ﻋ ﺛﺒﺎ ﺎ ﺇإﻻ ﺑﻔﻀﻞ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﻭوﺍاﻟﻘﺮﻭوﺽض ﻗﺼ ﺓة ﻣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺩدﻭوﻝل ﺍا ﻠﻴﺞ ﻌﺪ‬
‫ﻧﻘﻼﺏب ﺍاﻟﻌﺴﻜﺮﻱي‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻌ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃأﻥن ﻳﺤﺎﻓﻆ ﻋ ﺍاﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر ﺘﻪﮫ ﻭوﺇإﻻ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥن ﺍاﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍاﳌﺎ ﻟﻠﺒﻼﺩد ﺳ ﺴﻮﺀء ﻭوﺳﺘﺼﻞ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺇإ ﺣﺪ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻼﺍاﺳﺘﺪﺍاﻣﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﳌﺎﺫذﺍا ﻌﺎ ﻲ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯى ﺍاﻟﺜﻘﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺍاﻟ ﺪﺭر ﻭوﺍا ﻌﺪﺍاﻡم ﺍاﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀءﺓة؟ ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺃأﻭوﻻ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥن ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ ﻭوﺗﺤﺎﻓﻆ ﻋ‬

‫ﺬﻩ ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‬

‫ﺗﺤﺖ ﻣﺴﺘﻮ ﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺆﺩدﻱي ﺇإ ﺗﺤﻔ ﺍاﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠ ﺎ‪  .‬ﻭوﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻣﻦ‬
‫‪52‬‬

‫ﺃأﺟﻞ ﺍا ﻴﻠﻮﻟﺔ ﺩدﻭوﻥن ﺍاﻟ ﺴ ﺐ ﺑﺎﻷﺯزﻣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺗ ﺘﺞ ﺸ ﻞ ﻃﺒﻴ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺴﻌﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺍا‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺳﻘﻒ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ )ﺍاﻟﻌﺮﺽض(‪  ‬ﻟﺰ ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺍاﳌﻌﺮﻭوﺽض ﺍاﻟﻜ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺠﺮﻱي ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺫذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺗﻮﻓ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕت ﺭرﺧﻴﺼﺔ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺃأﻭو ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﻗﻴﺎﻡم ﺍا‬
‫ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺍا‬
‫ﺪﻑف ﺿﻤﺎﻥن ‪  ‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺎﻟ ﻭو ﺪ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓة؛ ﻭوﻋ ﺳ ﻴﻞ ﺍاﳌﺜﺎﻝل‪  :‬‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻡم ﺗﻘﻮﻡم ﺍا‬

‫ﻟ ﺒﺎﺯز ﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺸ ﻳﻪﮫ ﺍا‬

‫ﺎﺕت ﺗﺰﻭو ﺪ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺩدﻗﻴﻖ ﻗﻤﺢ ﻣﺪﻋﻮﻡم‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭرﺍاﻟﺴﻮﻕق ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪  1.‬‬

‫ﻭوﻧ ﻴﺠﺔ ﳌﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺃأﺩدﻯى ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺇإ‬

‫ﻓﺮﺍاﻁط‬

‫ﺳ ﻼﻙك‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺸﻮ ﻪﮫ‬

‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻭو ﺪ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻠﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺭرﺩدﻉع ﺍاﻟﺮﺍاﻏﺒ ﻥن ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝل ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺲ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإ ﺳﻠﻊ ﺭرﺩدﻳﺌﺔ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻨﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻭوﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕت ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩد ﻋﻠ ﺎ‪  .‬ﻭو ﻤﺎ ﺃأﻥن ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺸﻮﻩ ﺳﻌﺎﺭرﻓﻘﺪ‬
‫ﺃأﺗﺎﺣﺖ ﺍاﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﻊ ﺍاﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩد ﻭو ﺳﻮﺍاﻕق ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﺩدﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺮ ﺐ‪  2.‬‬
‫ﻭو)ﺍاﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺍاﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩد (‪  ‬ﻳﺤﺪﺙث ﺴ ﺐ ﻭوﺟﻮﺩد ﺃأﺳﻮﺍاﻕق ﺗﺘﺎﺟﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭر‬
‫ﻏ ﻣﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ؛ ﻭوﻣﻦ ﺃأﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﺫذﻟﻚ‪  :‬ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯزﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭو ﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻝل )‪  (LPG‬ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻳﺒﺎﻉع ﻟﻸﺳﺮﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ‬
‫ﻋ ﺷ ﻞ ﻋﺒﻮﺍاﺕت ﺴﻌﺮ )‪ 1.14‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر(‪  ‬ﻟ ﻞ )‪ 12.5‬ﻛﻎ(‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍاﺕت ﻳ ﺘ‬

‫ﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﻄﺎﻑف ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﻕق ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﺩدﺍاﺀء ﻟﻴﻌﺎﺩد ﺑﻴﻌ ﺎ ﻌﺸﺮﺓة ﺃأﺿﻌﺎﻑف ﺍاﻟﺴﻌﺮﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺗﻘﺮ ﺒﺎ‪  3.‬‬
‫ﻭو ّ‬
‫ﻐﺾ ﺍاﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﻤﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺷﺮ ﺤﺔ ﻌﻴ ﺎ؛ ﻓﺈﺫذﺍا ﺎﻧﺖ ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﻳﺔ ﻣﻨﻪﮫ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺟﻮﺍاﻧﺒﻪﮫ ﻻ ﺴ ﺪﻑف‬

‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻭوﻃﺄﺓة ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮ ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻮﻝل‬

‫‪   1‬ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣ ﻥن ‪ 2010‬ﻭو‪ 2011‬ﺎﻥن )‪  (%70‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﺳﻤﺮ ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡم ﺇإﻧﺘﺎﺝج ﺍا )ﺍاﻟﺒﻠﺪﻱي(‪  ‬ﺿﻤﻦ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍا ﺎﺹص؛ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻗﺎﻡم ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﺍاﳌﺪﺓة ﻧﻔﺴ ﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘ ﺍاﺩد ﺣﻮﺍا )‪  (%61‬ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬
‫ﺍاﻟ ﺴﺘﻮﺭرﺩد ﺎ ﻣﺼﺮ‪  .‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪  :‬ﺍاﻟﺘﻘﺮﺮ ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱي ﻟ ﺒﻮﺏب ﻭوﺍاﻟﻌﻠﻒ ﻣﺼﺮ‪  ..‬ﺍاﺭرﺗﻔﺎﻉع ﺇإﻧﺘﺎﺝج ﺍاﻟﻘﻤﺢ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺬﺭرﺓة‪  :‬ﺻﻼﺡح‬
‫ﻣﻨﺼﻮﺭر )ﻡم‪  .(1‬‬
‫ﺎﻳﺔ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺪﺭرﺍاﺳﺔ ﻟﻼﻃﻼﻉع ﻋ ﺗﻔﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﺑ ﺒﻠﻴﻮﻏﺮﺍاﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝل ﺇإ ﺍاﳌﺴﺮﺩد ﺍاﻟﺒ ﺒﻠﻴﻮﻏﺮﺍا‬
‫)ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻐﺎﺕت‪  ‬ﺻﻠﻴﺔ(‪  ‬ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺍاﺟﻊ ﺍاﳌﺬ ﻮﺭرﺓة‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﺑﺤﺴﺐ ﺍاﻟﺮﻗﻢ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻳ ﺍاﺳﻢ ﺍاﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺮﻴﺔ )ﻡم‪ 1‬ﻣﺜﻼ(‪].‬ﺍاﳌ ﺟﻢ[‪  ‬‬
‫‪  2‬ﻇﺎ ﺮﺓة ﺃأﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻏﺰﺓة‪  ..‬ﻟﻴﺎﺕت ﻏ ﺍاﳌﻘﺼﻮﺩدﺓة ﻟ ﺼﺎﺭر ﺳﺮﺍاﺋﻴ ‪  :‬ﻧﻴ ﻮﻻﺱس ﺑﻴﻼﻡم )ﻡم‪(2‬؛ ﺹص‪.31-6‬‬
‫‪   3‬ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ﺗ ﻠﻔﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻭو ﺪ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯز ﺣﻮﺍا )‪ 9-5‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭرﺍاﺕت( ‪  ‬ﻟ ﻞ ﻋﺒﻮﺓة‪   .‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪   :‬ﻞ ﻭوﺻﻠﺖ‬
‫ﻓﻼﺩد ﺴﻼﻑف ﻓﻮﺳﻴ ﻴﻚ )ﻡم‪.(3‬‬
‫"ﻗﺼﺔ ﺍاﻟﺒﻮﺗﺎﻏﺎﺯز ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي‪  "  ‬ﺇإ ﺎﻳ ﺎ؟‪    :‬‬
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‫ﺑﺄﻧﻪﮫ ﻻ ﻳﺤﻘﻖ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﻳﺔ ﺇإﻃﻼﻗﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﻷﻧﻪﮫ ﻳﻘﻮﻡم‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻧﻔﺴﻪﮫ ﺑﺪﻋﻢ ﺳ ﻼﻙك‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻳﺠﺮﻱي ﺿﻤﻦ ﺷﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﻻ ﺗﺤﺘﺎﺟﻪﮫ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭوﺭرﺓة؛ ﺑﻞ ﺇإﻥن ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺴ ﻠﻚ ﻛﻤﻴﺎﺕت‬
‫ﺃأﻛ ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻏ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻟ ﺬﺍا ﻓﺈﻥن ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﳌﻮﺟﻪﮫ ﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺳ ﻼﻛﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻮﻣﻲ ‪  ‬‬

‫ﻳﺨﺪﻡم ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﻏ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن ﺃأﻛ ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺨﺪﻡم ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺷﺪ ﻓﻘﺮﺍا‪  .‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻳﺪﺧﻞ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺍاﳌﺸ ﺪ‬

‫ﺻﻤﻴﻢ ﺍاﳌﺸ ﺪ ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺮ ﻲ ﺸ ﻞ ﻋﺎﻡم‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭرﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺩدﻭوﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺸﻴﻊ ﺍاﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍاﻣ ﺎ‬

‫ﻷﻏﺮﺍاﺽض ﻋﺎﻧﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪  .‬ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﺤﺎﻭوﻻﺕت ﻐﻴ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺗﻮﺍاﺟﻪﮫ ﻣﻌﺎﺭرﺿﺔ ﺷﻌﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺗﺠﻠﺖ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﳌﻌﺎﺭرﺿﺔ ﺑﺄﻭو‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﺻﻮﺭر ﺎ‬

‫ﺣﺘﺠﺎﺟﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻌﻨﻴﻔﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺷ ﺪ ﺎ ﻣﺪﻥن ﻣﺼﺮ ﻌﺪ ﻗﺮﺍاﺭرﺍاﻟﺮﺋ ﺲ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺃأﻧﻮﺭر ﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺩدﺍاﺕت‬
‫ﺑﺈﻳﻘﺎﻑف ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺋﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪  .1977‬‬

‫ﻭو ﺸﻤﻞ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺳ ﻼﻛﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ‪  :‬ﻣﺸﺘﻘﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻝل‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﳌﻮﺍاﺩد ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺋﻴﺔ ﺫذﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺤﺘﻮﻯى ﺍاﻟﻌﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴﻌﺮﺍاﺕت ﺍا ﺮﺍاﺭر ﺔ ﻭوﺍاﳌﺤﺘﻮﻯى ﺍاﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺋﻴﺔ‬
‫)ﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻜﺮﻭوﺍاﻟﺰ ﺖ ﺍاﻟﻨﺒﺎ ﻲ(‪  .‬ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺩدﻓﻌﺖ ﺳﻌﺎﺭرﺍاﳌﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍاﳌﺰ ﻔﺔ‬
‫‪  ‬‬
‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺮﺯز ﻭو‬

‫ﺑﺎﳌﺴ ﻠﻜ ﻥن ﺇإ ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﻃﻠ ﻢ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺃأﺩدﻯى ﻓﺮﺍاﻁط‬

‫ﺍاﺳ ﻼﻙك ﺍاﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ ﺇإ ﺟﻮﺍاﻧﺐ ﺧﺎﺭرﺟﻴﺔ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺗ ﻨﻮﻉع ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺍاﻟﺒﻴ ﻴﺔ ﺇإ ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ‬
‫ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ 4.‬ﻭوﻋﻼﻭوﺓة ﻋ‬

‫ﺫذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻟ ﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻮﺍا‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺎﻧﺖ ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ ﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻭوﻃﺄﺓة ﺍاﻟﻔﺸﻞ ﺍاﳌﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕق‬

‫ﺍاﻟ ﻭو ﺪ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ؛ ﺑﻞ ﺇإﻥن ﻣﺮ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺫذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﺆﺩدﻱي ﺇإ ﺗﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت‬
‫ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﻋ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ )ﺍاﻟﻌﺮﺽض( ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻷﺧﺺ‬

‫ﺎﻳﺔ ﺍاﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕق ﺍاﳌﺴ ﺪﻑف‪ 5،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻘﻮﻡم‬

‫ﺑﺘ ﺒﻴﻂ ﺍاﻟﺪﺍاﺧﻠ ﻥن ﺍا ﺪﺩد ﻭوﺗﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯى ﺍاﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺲ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﻕق‪ ،‬ﻧﺎ ﻴﻚ ﻋﻦ ﺯزﻣﺎﺕت‬

‫‪  4‬ﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺃأﺩدﻟﺔ ﺸ ﺇإ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑ ﻥن ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺳ ﻼﻛﻴﺔ ﻣﺼﺮ ﻭو ﻥن ﺍاﻟﺴﻤﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺮﺿﻴﺔ‪  .‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪  :‬ﻞ‬
‫ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﺍا ﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻋ ﺍاﻧ ﺸﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﺴﻤﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺮﺿﻴﺔ؟‪  ..‬ﺃأﺩدﻟﺔ ﺗﺠﺮ ﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺮ‪  :‬ﺁآﺑﺎﻱي ﺁآﺳﻔﺎﻭو‬
‫)ﻡم‪(4‬؛ ﺹص‪  .701-687‬‬
‫‪  5‬ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﺍاﻟﻌﺮﻲ‪  :‬ﺑﺎﺳﻢ ﻓﺘﻮﺡح ﻭوﻟﻮﺭرﺍا ﺍاﻟﻜﺘ ﻱي )ﻡم‪(5‬؛ ﺹص‪  .29‬‬
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‫ﺗﺤﺪﺙث ﺴ ﺐ ﺇإﺑﻘﺎﺀء ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺗﺤﺖ ﻣﺴﺘﻮ ﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﻭو ﺴ ﺐ ﻋﻘﻮﺩد ﻣﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻌﺎ ﻲ‬

‫ﺍا ﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺸﺎﺷﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﻋﺘﻪﮫ ﺿﺪ ﺗﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕت‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬

‫ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺇإﻥن‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻨﻔﺎﺫذ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻱي ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﺸ ﻞ ﺎﺟﺴﺎ ﻣﻘﻠﻘﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺍاﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽض ﺍاﻟ ﻭوﺩد‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻌﺮﺍاﺕت ﺍا ﺮﺍاﺭر ﺔ ﺸ ﻞ ﻭوﺛﻴﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮ ﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮ‪  7.‬‬
‫ﳌ ﺎﺫذﺍا ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ؟ ﻳﺤﺎ‬

‫ﻌﺾ ﺍاﳌﺨﺘﺼ ﻥن ﺑﺄﻥن ﺍاﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺌﺔ‬

‫ﻊ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻋﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺎ ﺇإﻟ ﺎ ﻓﺘﻘﺎﺭر ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﻘﺪﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺩدﺍاﺭر ﺔ ﺍاﻟﻼﺯزﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺠﻌﻞ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺷﻜﻼ ﺟﺬﺍاﺑﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﺷ ﺎﻝل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺍاﻟ ﻭوﺓة‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ‬

‫ﻏﻴﺎﺏب ﺃأﻱي ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﺯز ﻊ ﺍاﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ 8.‬ﻭو ﺒﺪﻭو ﺑﺄﻥن ﺬﺍا ﻣﺮ ﻻ ﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋ ﻣﺼﺮ‬
‫ﻭوﺣﺴﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﻧﻤﺎ ﺸﻤﻞ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﺧﺮﻯى ﺫذﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍاﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺃأﻭو ﺍاﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﻤﻦ‬
‫ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡم ﺃأﺳﻠﻮﺏب ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻭوﺿﻮﺡح‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀءﺓة ﺍاﳌﻄﻠﻮ ﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﺼﺮ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻤ ﺓة ﺑﺬﺍا ﺎ ﺴ ﺐ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﻪﮫ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﳌﺠﺎﻟ ﻥن ﺍاﻟﺼ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻮ‬

‫ﻢ ﻳﺘﻔﻮﻕق ﻋ‬

‫ﺰﻩ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻠﻮﻍغ‬
‫ﻢ ﺍاﻟ ﺎﺋﻞ ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕق‬

‫ﻢ ﺇإﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴ ﻣﺠﺘﻤﻌ ﻥن‪  .‬‬

‫ﻭو ﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻮﻝل ﻋ ﺍاﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯى ﺍاﻟﺘﻘ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﻣﻌﻘﺪﺓة؛ ﻓﻌﻮﺿﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻟ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟ ﺲ ﻣ ﻤﺔ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﻮﺟﻪﮫ ﻣﻌﻮﻧﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺮﻋﺎﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻋ ﺷ ﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺴﺘﻠﻤ ﺎ ﺳﺮﺍاﳌﺤﺘﺎﺟﺔ؛ ﻟﻜﻦ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺘﻐﻴ ﺍاﳌﻮﺟﻪﮫ‬
‫ﺭر ﻤﺎ ﻻ ﻳ ﻮﻥن ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎ ﻋ ﺍاﳌﺪﻯى ﺍاﻟﻘﺮ ﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻌﻮﺩد ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺐ‬
‫ﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍاﺭر ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإ ﻏﻴﺎﺏب ﺍاﻟﻘﺪﺭرﺓة‬

‫ﺫذﻟﻚ ﺇإ ﻋﺪﻡم‬

‫ﺩدﺍاﺭر ﺔ ﺍاﻟﻼﺯزﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺳﺮ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻔﻘ ﺓة ﻭوﺍاﺳ ﺪﺍاﻓ ﺎ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪   .‬ﻭوﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺫذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺇإﻣ ﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬
‫‪  6‬ﺍاﳌﺼﺪﺭرﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ؛ ﺹص‪  .31‬‬
‫‪  7‬ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍا ﻲ ﻭوﺿﻌﻒ ﻣﺼﺮ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﳌﺠﺎﻝل‪  :‬ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟ )ﻡم‪  .(6‬‬
‫‪  8‬ﺩدﻟﻴﻞ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ ﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪  :‬ﺳﻴﻤﻮﻥن ﻮﻣﺎﻧﺪﺭر )ﻡم‪.(7‬‬
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‫ﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﻓﻮﺭرﻱي ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ‬

‫ﺇإ ﺸﺎﺀء ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻋ ﺃأﺳﺎﺱس ﺳﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕق‬

‫ﻋ ﺍاﳌﺪﻯى ﺍاﻟﺒﻌﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻧﻔﺴﻪﮫ ﻋ‬

‫ﺳﺘﻌﺎﺿﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﺑ ﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﺸﻤﻞ ﺍا ﻤﻴﻊ ﺸ ﻞ ﻣﺆﻗﺖ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻭوﺣ ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺍاﺳ ﻨﺪﻧﺎ ﺇإ ﺍاﻓ ﺍاﺿﺎﺕت ﺷﺪﻳﺪﺓة ﺍاﻟﺘﺤﻔﻆ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﻞ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬
‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺳﻴﺆﺩدﻱي ﺇإ ﺗﻮﻓ ﻛﺒ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍاﻣﻪﮫ ﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن؛‬

‫ﺍا‬

‫ﻓ ﺈﺫذﺍا ﺎﻥن ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺸﻤﻞ ﺍا ﻤﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺎﻥن )‪  (%50‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﻓ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي‬
‫ﻳ ﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡم‬

‫ﻌﻮ ﺾ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻮﻝل ﺑﺄﻥن ﻞ‬

‫ﺃأﺳﺮﺓة ﻣﺼﺮ ﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺳﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋ )‪ 373‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر(‪  ‬ﺳﻨﻮ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺬﺍا ﺍاﳌﺒﻠﻎ ﻻ ﻌﺪ ﻗﻠﻴﻼ‬
‫ﺑﻠﺪ ﻳﺼﻞ ﻓﻴﻪﮫ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺩدﺧﻞ ﺍاﻟﻔﺮﺩد ﺇإ )‪ 6,700‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر(‪ 9‬ﻭو ﻌ ﺶ ﻓﻴﻪﮫ )‪  (%25.2‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن ﺗﺤﺖ ﺧﻂ ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮ )‪ 440‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر ﺳﻨﻮ ﺎ(‪ 10.‬ﻭوﺭر ﻤﺎ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺣ ﺍاﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍاﻡم ﺟﺰﺀء‬
‫ﺃأﻛ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﻓ ﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺬﺍا ﺟﺮﺍاﺀء ﻳ ﻴﺢ ﺍاﳌﺠﺎﻝل ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ﺃأﻛ ﻟ ﻞ‬
‫ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر(‪  ‬ﺳﻨﻮ ﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍاﻡم )‪  (%70‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﻓ ‪  .‬ﻭوﻻ ﺷﻚ‬
‫ﺃأﺳﺮﺓة ﻗﺪ ﻳﺼﻞ ﺇإ )‪   522‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴ‬

‫ﺃأﻥن‬

‫ﺇإ ﺗﻮﻓ ﺃأﻛ ﻌ ﺍاﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽض ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻤ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺗﺼﻞ ﺇإ )‪224‬‬

‫ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر(‪  ‬ﻟ ﻞ ﺃأﺳﺮﺓة ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺑﺈﻋﺎﺩدﺓة ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪﮫ )‪  (%30‬ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌﻮﺍاﺭرﺩد ﺍاﳌﻮﻓﺮﺓة ﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‪  .‬‬
‫ﺳﺮ ﻋ ﺃأﺳﺎﺱس ﺍاﻟ ﻭوﺓة ﺃأﻭو‬
‫‪  ‬‬
‫ﻭو ﻤﻜﻦ ﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﺑﻤﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺴﻴﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻴ ﺑ ﻥن‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺗﻮﻓ ﻛﺒ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮﺍاﺯزﻱي ﻣﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻮﺟ ﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺷﺪ ﻓﻘﺮﺍا‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺍاﻓ ﺿﻨﺎ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃأﺧﻤﺎﺱس ﺍاﻟﺸﻌﺐ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي )ﺍا ﺰﺀء‬
‫ﻓﻘﺮ(‪  ‬ﺳﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﺆﺧﺬ ﻣﻦ )‪  (%50‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﻓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﺘﺤﺼﻞ‬
‫ﻞ ﻋﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﻋ‬

‫ﻌﻮ ﺾ ﻣﻘﺪﺍاﺭرﻩ )‪ 622‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭرﺳﻨﻮ ﺎ(‪  .‬‬

‫‪  9‬ﺩدﻟﻴﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ )‪  :(2013‬ﻭو ﺎﻟﺔ ﺳﺘﺨﺒﺎﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺍاﳌﺮﻛﺰﺔ ﻣﺮ ﻜﻴﺔ )ﻡم‪  .(8‬‬
‫‪   10‬ﺳﻮﺃأ ﻣﻦ ﺫذﻟﻚ ﺃأﻥن ‪  (%4.8)  ‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺸﻌﺐ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي ﻌ ﺶ "ﻓﻘﺮ ﻣﺪﻗﻊ"‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻮ ﻌ ﺍاﻟﻌ ﺶ ﺑﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﻓﺮﺩدﻱي ﺳﻨﻮﻱي ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ )‪ 294‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر(‪  .‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪  :‬ﺍا ﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﺼﺮﺡح ﺑﺄﻥن ﻣﻌﺪﻝل ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮ ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺇإ ‪  (%25.2)  ‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‪  :‬‬
‫ﻴﻔﺔ ﺇإﻳﺠﺒﺖ ﺇإﻧﺪﺑﻨﺪﻧﺖ )ﻡم‪  .(9‬ﻭو ﺷﻤﺎﻝل ﻣﺼﺮ ﻳﺼﻞ ﻣﻌﺪﻝل ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮ ﺇإ ﺿﻌﻔﻲ ﺍاﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍاﻟﻮﻃ )‪  .(%51.4‬‬
‫‪52‬‬

‫ﺇإﻥن‬

‫ﻟﻠﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﻨﺎ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻻ ﺑﺪ ﺃأﻥن ﻳﺼﻄﺪﻡم ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﻌﺘ ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺼ ﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻏﻴﺎﺏب ﺍاﻟﻘﺪﺭرﺓة ﺩدﺍاﺭر ﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﻨﻈﺮﺓة ﺍاﻟﺸﻌﺒﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺎﺕت ﺫذﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺟ ﺔ ﺗﻔﺘﻘﺮ‬

‫ﺇإ ﺍاﳌﻮﺛﻮﻗﻴﺔ؛ ﻭوﻣﻊ ﺫذﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥن ﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻤﻜﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺳﻴﻔﺮﺽض ﺍاﻟﻮﺍاﻗﻊ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻱي ﺍاﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡم‬
‫ﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ ‪  .‬ﻭوﻻ ﺑﺪ ﺃأﻥن ﻳ ﻮﻥن ﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﻨﺎ‬
‫‪  ‬‬
‫ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﺃأﺷ ﺎﻝل‬

‫ﻣﻔﺼﻼ ﻭوﺳﺮ ﻌﺎ‬

‫ﻭو ﺴﻴﻄﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻻ ﺑﺪ ﺃأﻥن ﺗ ﻮﻥن ﺧﻄﺘﻪﮫ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺟ ﺔ ﻧﺤﻮ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن ﺸ ﻞ ﻋﺎﻡم‪ ،‬ﻭوﻻ ﺑﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺗﻜﻤﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺴ ﻥن ﺃأﺩدﺍاﺀء ﺳﻮﺍاﻕق‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﺪﻋﻤ ﺎ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺍا ﻠﻔﻴﺔ‪  ‬‬
‫ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺗﺎﺭر ﺦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺼﻌﻮ ﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺍا ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻛﺘﻨﻔﺖ ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻠﺖ ﺍا ﺮﺏب ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻭو ‪ ،‬ﻓﺤﻴ ﺎ ﺑﺪﺃأﺕت ﺍا‬
‫ﻛﻤﻴﺎﺕت ﻛﺒ ﺓة ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﻭو ﻴﻌ ﺎ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﻣﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘ ﺍاﺩد‬

‫ﻣﺘﺎﺟﺮ ﺗﻤﻠﻜ ﺎ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‪ 11.‬ﺛﻢ‬

‫ﺟﺎﺀءﺕت ﺍا ﺮﺏب ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻭوﺟﻠﺒﺖ ﻣﻌ ﺎ ﺃأﺳﻠﻮﺏب )ﺍا ﺼﺺ ﺍاﻟﺘﻤﻮ ﻴﺔ( ‪  ‬ﻛﺈﺟﺮﺍاﺀء‬
‫ﻣﺆﻗﺖ‬

‫ﻭوﻗﺖ ﺍا ﺮﺏب ﺪﻑف ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺸ ﻠﺔ ﻧﺪﺭرﺓة ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺎﻟﻘﻤﺢ‬

‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﺴﻜﺮ‪  .‬ﻭوﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺍا‬

‫ﺒﺖ ﺑﺮ ﻄﺎﻧﻴﺎ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 1956‬ﺎﻥن ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﺃأﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻌﻘﺪ ﺟﺘﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭوﺍاﳌﺎﺀء ﻭوﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻥن ﺸﻤﻞ‪  :‬ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺍاﳌﻮﺍاﺻﻼﺕت ﻭو ﺳ ﺎﻥن‬

‫ﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺇإﻧﻪﮫ ﺎﻥن ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍاﻟﺼﺎﺑﻮﻥن ﻭوﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﻭو ﺎﻥن ﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺰﺭرﺍا‬
‫ﻷﻧﻪﮫ ﺃأﺩدﻯى ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺸ ﻞ ﺟﺰﺀءﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 1956‬ﺑﻤﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﺩدﻓﻌﺔ‬

‫ﺎﺋﺮﺃأﻳﻀﺎ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ‬

‫ﺎﻓﺔ ﺟﻮﺍاﻧﺐ ﺇإﻧﺘﺎﺝج ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺗﻮﺯز ﻌﻪﮫ‪.‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎ‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫ﻟﻘﺪ ﺑﺪﺃأ ﺃأﺳﻠﻮﺏب )ﺍا ﺼﺺ ﺍاﻟﺘﻤﻮ ﻴﺔ( ‪ ،‬ﺛﻢ ﺗﻮﻗﻒ‪ ،‬ﺛﻢ ﻋﺎﺩد ﻣﺠﺪﺩدﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪1966‬؛‬

‫ﺎﻧﺖ ﺗﺪﻳﺮ ﺎ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻟﻢ ﺗﻜﻦ‬

‫ﻭوﻣﻦ ﺍا ﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺬﻛﺮ ﻨﺎ ﺃأﻥن ﺍاﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺋﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ‬
‫‪  11‬ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻭو ﻤﻜﻦ ﻃﻼﻉع ﻋ‬
‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫‪  12‬ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ‬

‫ﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭرﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻣﺼﺮ‪  :‬ﺃأﺣﻤﺪ ﻓﺎﺭرﻭوﻕق ﻏﻨﻴﻢ )ﻡم‪(10‬؛ ﺹص‪  .7-5‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﺭرﺦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻣﺼﺮ ‪  :‬‬
‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻣﺼﺮ‪  ..‬ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻴﺔ ﻭو ﺩدﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺧﻴﺎﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺻﻼﺡح‪  :‬ﺃأﺧ ﺃأﺣﻤﺪ ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )ﻡم‪  .(11‬‬
‫ﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‪  ..‬ﺍا ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ‪  :‬ﺗﺎﻣﺎﺭر ﻏﻮﺗ )ﻡم‪(12‬؛ ﺹص‪  .461‬‬
‫‪52‬‬

‫ﺗﺘﻜﺒﺪ ﺍا ﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﺸ ﻞ ﺩدﺍاﺋﻢ‪ ،‬ﻓﺒﻤﺎ ﺃأ ﺎ ﺎﻧﺖ ﻌﻤﻞ ﻛﺠ ﺔ ﺍاﺣﺘ ﺎﺭر ﺔ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺎﻧﺖ‬
‫ﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺭر ﺎﺡح‬

‫ﺃأﻭوﺍاﺋﻞ ﺍاﻟﺴﺒﻌﻴ ﻴﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕت ﺸ ﻞ ﺎﺋﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣ ﻥن ‪ 1973‬ﻭو‪    13.1974‬‬
‫ﻭوﻧ ﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺩدﺃأﺑﺖ ﻧﻔﻘﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﻭوﺻﻠﺖ ﺇإ ﻣﺴﺘﻮ ﺎﺕت ﻻﻣﺴﺘﺪﺍاﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻋ‬

‫ﺭرﺗﻔﺎﻉع ﺣ‬
‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺜﻤﺎﻧﻴ ﻴﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺣﻴ ﺎ ﺃأﺟﺮﺕت ﺍا‬

‫ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺧﻔﻀﺖ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﺍاﳌﻄﻠﻖ ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺴ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﻭوﻟﻮ ﺸ ﻞ ﻣﺆﻗﺖ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻭوﺿﻌﺖ ﺣﺪﺍا ﻟﻌﺪﺩد ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﻟ‬
‫‪  ‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪،‬‬

‫ﺸﻤﻠ ﺎ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‪  .‬‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻳﺠﺐ ﺩدﻋﻤﻪﮫ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻛﻢ ﻳ ﺒ ﺇإﻧﻔﺎﻗﻪﮫ ﻋ ﺫذﻟﻚ؟‪  ‬‬
‫ﻳﺬ ﺐ ﺍا ﺰﺀء ﻛ ﻣﻦ ﺇإﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻣﺼﺮﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‪،‬‬
‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺸ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍاﺕت ﻭو ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ )‪   (IEA‬ﺇإ ﺃأﻥن ﻣﻌﺪﻝل ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺍاﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﺤﻠﻴﺎ ﻗﺪ ﺑﻠﻎ ﺣﺪﺍا ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺎ )ﺃأﻛ ﻣﻦ ‪ 14.(%50‬ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي ﻷﻧﻮﺍاﻉع ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺃأﺧﺬﻧﺎ ﺍاﳌﻌﺎﻳ‬

‫ﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻌ ﻥن ﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭر ﻓﺴﻨﺠﺪ ﺑﺄﻥن ﻣﺼﺮ ﻻ ﺸ ﻞ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬

‫ﺗﻮﺯزﻋﻪﮫ ﻣﻦ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺣ ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2010‬ﺑﻠﻐﺖ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍا ﺰﺍاﺋﺮ ﻭوﺍاﻟﻌﺮﺍاﻕق ﻭوﺇإﻳﺮﺍاﻥن ﻣﺴﺘﻮ ﺎﺕت ﺃأﻋ ﻣﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍاﳌﻌﺪﻻﺕت ﺸ ﻞ ﻋﺒﺌﺎ ﺛﻘﻴﻼ ﻋ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‪  ‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد‪  ‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪﮫ‬

‫ﺎ ﻞ ﺍاﻟﺘﻤﻮ ﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ‪   ،‬ﻭوﻻ ﺷﻚ‬

‫ﻣﺎ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬
‫ﺃأﻥن ﺬﻩ‬

‫ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل‪  .  ‬‬

‫‪  2013/2012  2012/2011  2011/2010  2010/2009  2009/2008  2008/2007‬‬
‫‪  2,356‬‬
‫‪  8,632‬‬

‫‪  3,019‬‬
‫‪  8,983‬‬

‫‪  4,691‬‬
‫‪  9,696‬‬

‫‪  2,410‬‬
‫‪  9,531‬‬

‫‪  13‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫)ﻡم‪(13‬؛ ﺹص‪  .224‬‬
‫‪  14‬ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﺍاﻟﻌﺮﻲ )ﻡم‪(5‬؛ ﺹص‪  .22‬‬
‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‬

‫‪  4,338‬‬
‫‪  13,687‬‬

‫‪  3,811‬‬
‫‪  10,029‬‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ‪  ..‬ﺩدﺭرﻭوﺱس ﻭوﺧﻴﺎﺭرﺍاﺕت‪  :‬ﺎﺭرﻭوﻟﺪ ﺁآﻟﺪﺭرﻣﺎﻥن ﻭوﺟﻮﺍاﻛﻴﻢ ﻓﻮﻥن ﺑﺮﺍاﻭوﻥن‬

‫‪52‬‬

‫ﺍا ﺪﻭوﻝل )‪ :(1‬ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ )ﻣﻘﺪﺭرﺍا ﺑﻤﻼﻳ ﻥن ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻻﺭرﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﻭوﻓﻖ ﺳﻌﺎﺭرﺍا ﺎﻟﻴﺔ(‪  15‬‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﺍا ﺪﻭوﻝل )‪  (1‬ﺃأﻥن ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪  (2012/2011‬ﻭوﺻﻞ ﻓ ﺎ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‬
‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺇإ ﺣﻮﺍا )‪ 18‬ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭر ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر(‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍا ﺪﻭوﻝل ﻳﻘﺪﻡم ﻟﻨﺎ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕت ﺣﻮﻝل ﺍاﳌﻘﺪﺍاﺭر‬
‫ﺍاﳌﻄﻠﻖ ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺸ ﻞ ﺍا ﺰﺀء‬

‫ﻛ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﺑﺪﺀءﺍا ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪  .(2008/2007‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺇإﻥن ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد‬
‫ﺸ ﻞ ﺣﻮﺍا ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃأﺭر ﺎﻉع ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﻣﺠﻤﻞ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‪ ،‬ﺃأﻣﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳ ﺒﻘﻰ ﻓ ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡم ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕق‬
‫ﻋ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء )ﺍا‬

‫ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ(؛ ﻭو ﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇإ ﻣﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﻓﺈﻥن ﺍاﺳ ﻼﻙك ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﻠﻘﻰ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻨﻪﮫ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﻣﺘﻮﺍاﺿﻊ ﺴ ﻴﺎ )‪ 720‬ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥن ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪   .(2013/2012‬ﺇإﻥن ﺃأﺭرﻗﺎﻡم ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪   (2013/2012‬ﻻ ﻌﻜﺲ ﺇإﻻ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﻲ؛ ﻓﺈﺫذﺍا ﺃأﺧﺬﻧﺎ ﻌ ﻥن ﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭرﺍاﺕت‬
‫ﺍا ﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺸ ﺪ ﺎ ﻣﺼﺮ ﻓﺈﻥن ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻧ ﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺧﻄﻄﺖ ﻟﻪﮫ‬

‫ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟ ﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﺇإﻧﺠﺎﺯزﻩ؛ ﻭو ﺸ ﺍاﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍاﺕت ﺇإ ﺃأﻥن ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻋ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪   (2013/2012‬ﻗﺪ ﺃأﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﻻﺭرﺗﻔﺎﻉع ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍاﺕت ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪  16.‬‬

‫ﺹص‪    .60‬‬

‫‪   15‬ﺍاﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥن ﺍاﳌﺎ ﻟﻠﻤ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭوﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪   :2013/2012‬ﻭوﺯزﺍاﺭرﺓة ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ )ﻡم‪(14‬؛‬

‫ﺟﺮﻯى‪  ‬ﺍاﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩد ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍاﻟﺼﺮﻑف ﺍاﳌﻮﺍاﻓﻖ ﻟـ‪ 16‬ﻣﺎﻳﻮ ‪ 1)   2013‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر =‪ 6.98  ‬ﺟﻨﻴﻪﮫ ﻣﺼﺮﻱي‪ ،(  ‬ﻭو ﻣﺎ ﻳﺨﺺ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﺟﺮﻯى‪  ‬ﺍاﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩد ﺃأﺭرﻗﺎﻡم ﺍاﻟ ﻴﺌﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﻟﺘﻤﻮ ﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺍا ﺔ ﺍاﳌﺴﺆﻭوﻟﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‪.‬‬
‫ﻭوﺗﺠﺪﺭر ﺷﺎﺭرﺓة ﺇإ ﺃأﻥن ﺭرﻗﺎﻡم ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪   (2013/2012‬ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻤﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃأﻣﺎ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق‬
‫ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻓﻴﻤﻴﻞ ﺇإ ﺭرﺗﻔﺎﻉع ﺃأﻛ ‪.‬‬
‫‪  16‬ﺃأﺯزﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﻥن ﺇإ ﺣﺎﻓﺔ ﻴﺎﺭر‪  :‬ﺑﻮﻝل ﺗﺎﻳﻠﻮﺭر ﻭوﺻﺎ ﻳﺎﺳﻤ ﻥن )ﻡم‪.(15‬‬
‫‪520‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺸ ﻞ )‪   :(1‬ﺑ ﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﻮﺩد‬

‫)‪ ،(2013/2012‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺑﻠﻎ ﺃأﻛ ﻣﻦ )‪ 10‬ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭرﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر(‬

‫ﻣ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪17‬‬

‫‪  ‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺸ ﻞ )‪   :(2‬ﺑ ﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‬

‫)‪ ،(2013/2012‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺑﻠﻎ )‪ 3.8‬ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭرﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر(‬

‫ﻣ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪18‬‬

‫‪  ‬‬

‫ﻳﻘﺪﻡم ﺍاﻟﺸﻜﻼﻥن ﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺎﻥن ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻼ ﺑ ﻛﻴﺒﺔ ﺑ ﻴﺔ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪ (2013/2012‬؛ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺬ ﺐ ﺍا ﺰﺀء ﻛ ﻣﻦ ﺩدﻋﻢ‬

‫‪  17‬ﺍاﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥن ﺍاﳌﺎ ﻟﻠﻤ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭوﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪)  2013/2012‬ﻡم‪.(14‬‬
‫‪  18‬ﺍاﳌﺼﺪﺭرﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪.‬‬
‫‪521‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡم‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﻱي‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺭرﺍاﺟﻌﻨﺎ ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺼﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪   (2013/2012‬ﻓﺴﻨﻼﺣﻆ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺣﺼﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻗﺪ ﺍاﻧﺨﻔﻀﺖ ﺸ ﻞ ﻣ ﻮﻅظ ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺎﻧﺖ ﻓ ﺎ ﺣﺼﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﻧﺼﻒ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻤﻴﺔ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺣﺼﺺ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻟﻠﻮﻗﻮﺩد‪   .‬ﺃأﻣﺎ ﺍاﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻳ ﺍاﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل‬

‫ﻟﻠﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﻓ ﻮ ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯز ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭو ﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻝل )‪ ،(LPG‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻳﺠﺮﻱي ﺗﻮﺯز ﻌﻪﮫ‬

‫ﻋﺒﻮﺍاﺕت ﻣﻌﺪﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻋ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺱس ﺍاﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻮﻧﻪﮫ ﻟﻠﻄﺒﺦ‪   .‬ﺃأﻣﺎ ﺍاﻟﺸ ﻞ ﺍاﻟﺜﺎ ﻲ ﻓﻴﻮ‬

‫ﻟﻨﺎ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺍا ﺼﺔ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﺗﺬ ﺐ ﺇإ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻛ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺘﻪﮫ‬

‫ﻭوﺍاﳌﺎﺩدﺓة ﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬

‫)ﺩدﻗﻴﻖ ﺍاﻟﻘﻤﺢ(‪ ،‬ﺛﻢ ﻳﻠﻴﻪﮫ ﺍاﻟﺰ ﺖ ﺍاﻟﻨﺒﺎ ﻲ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺴﻜﺮ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺮﺯز‪  .  ‬‬
‫ﻭو ﺒ‬
‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل‬
‫ﻓﺎﻟﺘ ﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬

‫ﺃأﻥن ﻻ ﻧ‬

‫ﻨﺎ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺍاﻟﺘ ﻠﻔﺔ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓة ﺍاﻟ ﺗﺘﺤﻤﻠ ﺎ ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ‬

‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ؛‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺗﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍاﻟﺘ ﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬

‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﺸﻤﻞ ﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍاﻣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍاﺭرﺩد ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺩدﺭرﺓة ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﺗﻮﺟ ﺎ ﺪﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌ ﺳ ﻴﻞ ﺍاﳌﺜﺎﻝل‪  :‬ﻳﺤﺎ‬

‫ﻳﺠﺮﻱي‬

‫ﺴﺎﻡم ﻓﺘﻮﺡح‬

‫ﻭوﻟﻮﺭرﺍا ﺍاﻟﻜﺘ ﻱي ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌ ﺪ ﺃأﻭوﻛﺴﻔﻮﺭرﺩد ﻟﺪﺭرﺍاﺳﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪  19‬ﺑﺄﻥن ﺗ ﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍاﻟﻔﺮﺹص ﺬﻩ ﻗﺪ‬
‫ﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﺗﺼﻞ ﺇإ ﺣﻮﺍا ﺿﻌﻔﻲ ﺍاﻟﺘ ﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪  .‬ﻭو ﻀﺎﻑف ﺇإ ﺫذﻟﻚ‬

‫ﺃأﻥن ﺍاﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍاﺕت ﻧﻔﺴ ﺎ ﺗﺘﺠﺎ ﻞ ﺍاﻟﺘﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﺎ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﻋ‬

‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺸ ﻞ ﻋﺎﻡم‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﻴﻊ ﻋ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻓﺮﺍاﻁط ﺍاﺳ ﻼﻙك ﻣﻮﺍاﺭرﺩد‬

‫ﻌﻴ ﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‪ ،‬ﻭوﺗﺜ ﻴﻂ ﺩدﺧﻮﻝل ﺍاﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴ ﻥن ﺍاﳌﺤﺘﻤﻠ ﻥن ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﻕق‪  .  ‬‬
‫ﻭوﻣ ﻤﺎ ﻳﻜﻦ ﻣﺮ ﻓﺈﻥن ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ ﺴﺘ ﻑف ﺟﺰﺀءﺍا ﻛﺒ ﺍا ﻣﻦ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻭوﺃأﻛ ﻣﻦ )‪   (%13‬ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍاﻟﻮﻃ ؛‪ 20‬ﻭوﻟﻮ ﻟﻢ ﻳﻜﻦ ﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺬﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﻟ ﺎﻧﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﻛﺒ‬

‫‪  19‬ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﺍاﻟﻌﺮﻲ )ﻡم‪(5‬؛ ﺹص‪  .38‬‬
‫‪  20‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ ﺍا ﺪﻭوﻝل )‪  .(2‬‬
‫‪522‬‬

‫ﻣ ﺍاﻧﻴ ﺎ‪ .‬ﻭو ﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺃأﻥن ﻧ ﺒ ﻥن ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺸ ﻠ ﻥن )‪  (3‬ﻭو)‪  (4‬ﺑﺄﻥن ﺍاﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍاﳌﺎ ﻟﻠﺒﻼﺩد ﻳﺘﺪ ﻮﺭر ﻣﻨﺬ ﺑﺪﺍاﻳﺔ ﺯزﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ،2008‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻭوﺻﻞ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم‬

‫ﺰ ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ ﺇإ ﺃأﻛ ﻣﻦ )‪  (%10‬ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍاﻟﻮﻃ ‪  .‬ﻭو‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍاﻟﺮﺍا ﻦ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺗﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍاﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻘﺪﻣ ﺎ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩدﻳﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﻮ ﺖ ﻭو ﻣﺎﺭرﺍاﺕت‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﻭوﻋﺪﺕت ﺑﺄﻥن ﺗﻘﺪﻡم ﳌﺼﺮ ﻣﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪﮫ )‪ 12‬ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭر‬
‫ﻨﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﻌﺪ ﻋﺰﻝل ﺍاﻟﺮﺋ ﺲ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﻣﺮ‬

‫ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر( ‪  ‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﺮﻭوﺽض ﻭوﺍاﳌﻨﺢ ﻭو‬
‫ﻛﺮ‬

‫ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ‪  21.‬‬
‫ﻭو ﻐﺾ ﺍاﻟﻨﻈﺮﻋﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت ﺍاﳌ ﺗﺒﺔ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻮ ﺩدﻳﻦ ﻳﺄ ﻲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ‬

‫ﺗﻤﻮ ﻠﻪﮫ ﻣﻦ ﺍا ﺎﻧﺐ ﺍاﳌﺤ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻳﺆﺩدﻱي ﺇإ ﺿﻴﺎﻉع ﺍاﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺟﻨ ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﻷﻥن ﺍاﻟﻜﺜ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻤﺎ ﻓ ﺎ ﺍاﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل ﻭوﺍاﻟﻘﻤﺢ‪،‬‬
‫ﺳﻠﻊ ﻳﺠﺮﻱي ﺍاﺳﺘ ﺍاﺩد ﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻘﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻷﺧﺺ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‪  .‬ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺳﺎﺀء ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺃأﻛ ﻭوﺃأﻛ‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل‪ 22،‬ﻭوﺳﺎ ﻢ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﺣﺪﺙث ﺃأﻭوﺍاﺋﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم‬

‫‪ 2013‬ﻣﻦ ﻧﻀﻮﺏب ﺳﺮ ﻊ ﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺟﻨ ‪  23.‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ‬
‫ﻭوﺍاﳌﻨﺢ ﻭوﺍاﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ‬
‫ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟ ﺴﺒﺔ ﺇإ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍاﻟﻮﻃ ‪  ‬‬

‫‪/2007‬‬
‫‪  2008‬‬
‫‪  17,801‬‬

‫‪/2008‬‬
‫‪  2009‬‬
‫‪  20,095‬‬

‫‪/2009‬‬
‫‪  2010‬‬
‫‪  20,395‬‬

‫‪/2010‬‬
‫‪  2011‬‬
‫‪  24,107‬‬

‫‪/2011‬‬
‫‪  2012‬‬
‫‪  29,291‬‬

‫‪/2012‬‬
‫‪  2013‬‬
‫‪  20,894‬‬

‫‪  %13.8‬‬

‫‪  %13.5‬‬

‫‪  %11.8‬‬

‫‪  %12.2‬‬

‫‪  %13.3‬‬

‫ﻏ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮ‪  ‬‬

‫‪   21‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ‪  ..‬ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي ﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺗﺨﻄﻲ ﺯزﻣﺔ ﺑﺼﻌﻮ ﺔ ﺑﻔﻀﻞ ﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺍاﺕت ﺍا ﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪  :‬ﺑﺎﺗﺮ ﻚ‬
‫ﻭو ﺮ )ﻡم‪.(16‬‬
‫‪22‬‬
‫‪  ‬ﺍاﻟﻘﺼﺔ ﺍا ﻔﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻳﺰﻝل ﻣﺼﺮ‪  :‬ﻓﺮﺡح ﺣﻠﻴﻤﺔ )ﻡم‪.(17‬‬
‫‪  23‬ﺍاﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﻣﺼﺮﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪ‪  ‬ﺟﻨ ﻳﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺇإ ﺃأﺩد ﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮ ﺎﺗﻪﮫ ‪ 15‬ﻋﺎﻣﺎ‪  :‬ﺃأﺣﻤﺪ ﻌﻤﺔ ﷲ ﻭوﻧﺎﺩدﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺮﻭو )ﻡم‪.(18‬‬
‫‪523‬‬

‫ﺍا ﺪﻭوﻝل )‪  :(2‬ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪)   2007‬ﻣﻘﺪﺭرﺍا‬

‫ﺑﻤﻼﻳ ﻥن ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻻﺭرﺍاﺕت(‪  24‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺸ ﻞ )‪  :(3‬ﺴﺒﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﺇإ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍاﻟﻮﻃ‬
‫‪(2013‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺸ ﻞ )‪   :(4‬ﺴﺒﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺰ ﺇإ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍاﻟﻮﻃ‬
‫‪(2006‬‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ )‪-2006‬‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ )ﻣﻨﺬ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم‬

‫‪26‬‬

‫‪  24‬ﺍاﻟﺒﻴﺎﻥن ﺍاﳌﺎ ﻟﻠﻤ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭوﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪)  2013/2012‬ﻡم‪  .(14‬‬
‫ﺭرﻗﺎﻡم ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪  (2013/2012‬ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻤﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃأﻣﺎ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻓﻴﻤﻴﻞ ﺇإ‬
‫ﺭرﺗﻔﺎﻉع ﺃأﻛ ‪.‬‬
‫‪  25‬ﻧﻈﺮﺓة ﺇإ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟ )ﻡم‪.(19‬‬
‫‪  26‬ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻑف ﺍاﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱي ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي )ﻡم‪  .(20‬‬
‫‪524‬‬

‫ﺇإﻥن ﻓﺪﺍاﺣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺸ ﻠﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺗ ﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﺍاﻟ ﺗ ﺴ ﺐ ﺎ ﺳﻌﺎﺭرﺍاﳌﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﻄﻨﻌﺔ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺮﺍاﻁط‬

‫ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺆﺩدﻱي ﺇإ‬

‫ﺍاﺳ ﻼﻙك ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ ﻭو ﺴﺮ ﺎ ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﻕق ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﺩدﺍاﺀء‪  .‬‬

‫ﻭوﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﻥن ﻣﻌﺪﻝل ﺍاﺳ ﻼﻙك ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃأﻱي‪   :‬ﻭوﺣﺪﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻟ ﻞ ﻭوﺣﺪﺓة ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍاﻟﻮﻃ ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪ ﺍاﻧﺨﻔﻀﺖ‬
‫ﻓﺈ ﺎ ﺩدﺃأﺑﺖ ﻋ‬

‫ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﺍاﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻋ ﺍاﻣﺘﺪﺍاﺩد ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ‪،‬‬

‫ﺯزﺩدﻳﺎﺩد ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﺍاﻟ ﺗﺪﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد‪ ،‬ﺑﻤﺎ ﻓ ﺎ ﻣﺼﺮ‪  27.‬‬

‫ﻭو ﻐﺾ ﺍاﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘ ﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﻭوﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺳ ﻼﻛﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن‬
‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺇإ ﻋﺪﺩد ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟ ﺸﻮ ﺎﺕت ﺧﺮﻯى‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻞ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟ ﺸﻮ ﺎﺕت ﻗﺪ ﻭوﺻﻠﺖ‬
‫ﺇإ ﺩدﺭرﺟﺔ ﺣﺎﺩدﺓة‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕق ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي؛ ﻭوﻋ ﺳ ﻴﻞ ﺍاﳌﺜﺎﻝل‪  :‬ﺇإﻥن ﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺆﺛﺮﺓة ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺗﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﻏ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺬﺍا ﻻ ﻳﺆﺩدﻱي ﻓﺤﺴﺐ‬

‫ﺇإ ﺗ‬

‫ﻢ ﺗ ﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭرﻩ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﻟ ﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﻧﻤﺎ ﻳ ﺴ ﺐ ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ‬

‫ﺑﺘﺪﻣ‬

‫ﺪﻑف ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﻛﺄﺩدﺍاﺓة ﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓة ﺍاﳌﺤﺘﺎﺟ ﻥن‪  .‬‬
‫ﻭو ﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻮﻝل ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺼﺎ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻌﻤﻞ ﻛﺜ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺎﻥن‬

‫ﺸ ﻞ ﺍاﺭرﺗﺪﺍاﺩدﻱي؛‪ 28‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺒ ﻥن ﺍاﻟﺸ ﻞ )‪  (5‬ﺑﺄﻥن ﺍا ﻤﺲ ﻏ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‪ ،‬ﺍاﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ‬
‫ﺍا ﻀﺮ ﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺮ ﻔﻴﺔ ﻋ ﺣﺪ ﺳﻮﺍاﺀء‪ ،‬ﺴﺘﻠﻢ ﺸ ﻞ ﻋﺎﻡم ﺍا ﺼﺔ‬
‫ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻛ ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺄﻥن ﺣﺼﺔ ﺳﺮ ﺧﺮﻯى ﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺗ ﻨﺎﻗﺺ ﻣﻊ‬

‫ﺗﻨﺎﻗﺺ ﺛﺮﻭوﺍا ﺎ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻤﺜﻠ ﺎ ﺍاﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕت ﺳﺮ ﺔ‪   .‬ﻭو ﺒﺪﻭو ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺘﻔﺎﻭوﺕت ﺸ ﻞ ﺃأﻭو‬
‫ﺍاﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍا ﻀﺮ ﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﺴ ﺐ ﺍاﻣﺘﻼﻙك ﺳﺮ ﻏ ﻷﻛ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺭرﺓة‬

‫ﺳﺮﺓة‬

‫‪  27‬ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﺍاﻟﻌﺮﻲ )ﻡم‪(5‬؛ ﺹص‪.25‬‬
‫‪   28‬ﻳﺘﻮﺍاﻓﻖ ﺬﺍا ﺳﺘ ﺘﺎﺝج ﻣﻊ ﺩدﺭرﺍاﺳﺔ ﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو ﺷﻤﻠﺖ ﻧﻤﺎﺫذﺝج ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﺓة ﺩدﻭوﻝل ﻧﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﻭوﺟﺪﺕت ﺃأﻥن ﺍا ﻤﺲ ﻭوﻝل ﺗﻮﺯز ﻊ ﺍاﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺴﺘﻠﻢ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﺩدﺓة ﺳﺘﺔ ﺃأﺿﻌﺎﻑف ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﻮﺩد‬
‫ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍا ﻤﺲ ﺧ ‪   .‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪   :‬ﺍاﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻏ ﺍاﳌ ﺴﺎﻭو ﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﻮﺩد‪   ..‬ﺍاﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍاﺽض ﻷﺩدﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪  :‬ﺧﺎﻓﻴ ﺁآﺭرﺯزﻱي ﺩدﻳﻞ ﻏﺮﺍاﻧﺪﻭو ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )ﻡم‪.(21‬‬
‫‪525‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻮﺍاﺣﺪﺓة‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻼﺣﻆ‬

‫ﺬﻩ ﺍاﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺍا ﻤﺲ ﻋ‬

‫ﺛﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺃأﺿﻌﺎﻑف ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﺗﻮﺯزﻉع ﺍاﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺴﺘﻠﻢ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺴﺘﻠﻤﻪﮫ ﺍا ﻤﺲ ﺩد ﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﻠﻦ ﻧﺘﻔﺎﺟﺄ‬

‫ﻌﺪ ﺎ ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺎﻥن ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯزﻭوﻟ ﻥن ﻮ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻌﻤﻞ ﺸ ﻞ ﺍاﺭرﺗﺪﺍاﺩدﻱي ﺃأﻛ ﻣﻦ ﻏ ﻩ‪  29.‬‬
‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﺸ ﻞ )‪  (6‬ﻳﺒ ﻥن ﺃأﻥن ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﺗﺘﻮﺯزﻉع ﺸ ﻞ ﺃأﻛ ﺴﺎﻭو ﺎ‬

‫ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺑﻤﻘﺎﺭرﻧﺘﻪﮫ ﻣﻊ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ؛ ﻟﻜﻦ‬

‫ﺫذﻟﻚ ﻻ ﻳﻤﻨﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﻥن ﻳ ﻮﻥن ﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﺍاﻧﺤﻴﺎﺯزﺇإ ﺻﻒ ﺍاﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍا ﻀﺮ ﺔ ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ‪  30.‬‬
‫ﻭو ﻀﺎﻑف ﺇإ ﺫذﻟﻚ ﺃأﻥن ﺍاﻟ ﺴﺮ ﺎﺕت )ﻣﻘﺪﺍاﺭر ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﻟ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﺩدﺍاﺀء( ‪  ‬ﺗﺒﻠﻎ‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫)ﺍاﻟﺒﻠﺪﻱي( ‪  ‬‬

‫ﻌﺎﺩد ﺑﻴﻌ ﺎ‬

‫ﻤﺎ ﻛﺒ ﺍا ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺎﻧﺖ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ )‪   (%31‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻌﺮﺽض‬

‫ﺳﻮﺍاﻕق‬
‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪ ،(2009/2008‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽض ﻋﻦ ﺍاﻟ ﺴﺒﺔ‬

‫)‪   (%40.8‬ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪ ،(2005/2004‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﻠﻐﺖ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟ ﺴﺒﺔ )‪   (%20‬ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻜﺮﻭوﺍاﻟﺰ ﺖ ﺍاﻟﻨﺒﺎ ﻲ‪ 31.‬ﻭو ﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﺃأﻋﺪﻩ ﺍاﳌﺮﻛﺰﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي‬
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‫ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺪﻋﻢ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺪﺭرﺍاﺳﺎﺕت‬

‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﻭوﺭرﺩدﺕت ﻓﻴﻪﮫ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍاﺕت ﺃأﻋ ﺑﻜﺜ ؛‪ 32‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺧﺮﺝج ﺗﻘﺮ ﺮ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻚ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو ﺑﺎﺳﺘ ﺘﺎﺝج ﻣﻔﺎﺩدﻩ ﺃأﻧﻪﮫ "ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺃأﻣﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟ ﺴﺮﺏب ﻭوﺗﻘﻠﻴﺺ ﻧﻄﺎﻕق‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻐﻄﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﻳﻤﻜ ﺎ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﻮﻓﺮﻣﺎ ﻳﺼﻞ ﺇإ )‪  (%73‬ﻣﻦ ﺗ ﻠﻔﺔ‬

‫ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء"‪  33.‬‬

‫‪   29‬ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت‬
‫ﻓﺎﻏﻠﻴﺎﺳﻨﺪﻱي )ﻡم‪.(22‬‬
‫‪  30‬ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻣﺼﺮ )ﻡم‪(11‬؛ ﺹص‪  .xii‬‬
‫‪  31‬ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻣﺼﺮ‪  ..‬ﻣﻌﺪﻝل ﻧﺘﻔﺎﻉع ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺴﺮ ﺎﺕت‪  :‬ﺍاﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو )ﻡم‪(23‬؛ ﺹص‪.86‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮ‪   ..‬ﺑﺪﺍاﺋﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﺟﻞ ﺻﻼﺡح‪   :‬ﺍاﳌﺮﻛﺰ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي ﻟﻠﺪﺭرﺍاﺳﺎﺕت‬
‫‪   32‬ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ‬
‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ )ﻡم‪  .(24‬‬
‫‪  33‬ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻣﺼﺮ )ﻡم‪(23‬؛ ﺹص‪.i‬‬
‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪   ..‬ﻧﻈﺮﺓة ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺍاﻟﺮﺋ ﺴﻴﺔ‪   :‬ﻣﺎﺭر ﺎ‬

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‫ﺍاﻟﺸ ﻞ )‪   :(5‬ﺗﻮﺯزﻉع ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﻋ ﺃأﺧﻤﺎﺱس ﺷﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق‬

‫ﺍاﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍا ﻀﺮ ﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺮ ﻔﻴﺔ ﻣﺼﺮ )ﻣﻘﺪ ‪  ‬ﺭرﺍا ﺑﺎﻟ ﺴﺒﺔ ﺍاﳌﺌﻮ ﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ(‬

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‫ﻭو ﺍا ﺎﻻﺕت ﺟﻤﻴﻌ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭر ﻌﺾ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺋﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ ﺫذﺍاﺕت‬
‫ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﺪﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺠﺮﻱي ﺳﺘﻌﺎﺿﺔ ﻋ ﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺫذﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻋ ﺑﺒﺪﺍاﺋﻞ ﺫذﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺃأﻓﻀﻞ؛ ﻭو ﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻮﻝل ﻌﺒﺎﺭرﺓة ﺃأﺧﺮﻯى ﺃأﻥن ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﻨﻈﺮ‬

‫ﺇإﻟﻴﻪﮫ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭرﻩ "ﺫذﻛﻴﺎ" ‪  ‬ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺎﻧﺖ ﺳﺮ ﻓﻘﺮ ﺳﺘﺨﺘﺎﺭر ﺷﺮﺍاﺀء ﻛﻤﻴﺎﺕت ﺃأﻛ ﻣﻦ ﺬﻩ‬
‫ﻏﺬﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺳﺮ ﻏ ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺆﺩدﻱي ﺇإ ﺣﺼﻮﻟ ﺎ ﻋ ﺣﺼﺔ ﺃأﻛ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‪   .‬ﻭو ﺼﺪﻕق ﺬﺍا ﻣﺮ ﺸ ﻞ ﺧﺎﺹص ﻋ ﺿﻮﺀء ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺃأﺩدﺧﻠﺖ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺜﻤﺎﻧﻴ ﻴﺎﺕت ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌﻴ ﻴﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺃأﻟﻐﺖ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺋﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ‬
‫ﺍاﳌﺒﺪﺃأ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل‬

‫ﺴ ﻠﻜ ﺎ ﻏﻨﻴﺎﺀء ﺃأﻛ ﻣﻦ ﻏ ﻢ‪ 35.‬ﻭو ﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻮﻝل ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻳﻤﻜ ﺎ ﺗﻜﺮﺍاﺭر ﺃأﻣﺜﺎﻝل ﺬﻩ ﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت "ﺍاﻟﺬﻛﻴﺔ" ‪  ‬ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬

‫‪   34‬ﺃأﺑﻮ ﺍاﻟﻌﻴﻨ ﻥن ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )ﻡم‪ ،(25‬ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩد ﻋ ﻣ‬
‫ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﺔ )ﻡم‪.(26‬‬
‫‪   35‬ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻣﺼﺮ‪   ..‬ﻋﻤﻠ ﺎ ﻭوﺗﺄﺛ ﺍا ﺎ ﻋ‬
‫ﻭوﺭر ﺸﺎﺭرﺩد ﺁآﺩدﺍاﻣﺰ )ﻡم‪(27‬؛ ﺹص‪.1791-1777‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭو ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻭو ﺳ ﻼﻙك ﻟﺪﻯى ﺳﺮﺓة‬

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‫ﺗﻮﺯزﻉع ﺍاﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪   :‬ﺳﻮﻧﻴﺎ ﻋ‬

‫ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺇإﻳﻘﺎﻑف ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺭرﺗﺪﺍاﺩدﻱي ﻭو ﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻳﻨ‬

‫ﺍاﺳ ﺪﺍاﻑف ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮﺍاﺀء‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ‪  :‬ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯزﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻝل‪  36.‬‬

‫ﺃأﻛ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺸ ﻞ )‪  :(6‬ﺍاﳌﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﻮ ﺔ ﺍاﻟﻔﺮﺩدﻳﺔ ﺍاﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء )ﻣﻘﺪﺭرﺓة‬

‫ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻭوﻻﺭر ﻣﺮ ﻲ(‪  37‬‬
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‫ﻞ ﺗﺎﺭر‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪ ﺣﺎﻭوﻟﺖ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﻟ ﺪﺭر‬

‫ﺣﺎﻓﻞ ﺑﺎﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻔﺎﺷﻠﺔ‪  ‬‬
‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﻣﺮﺍاﺭرﺍا ﻭوﺗﻜﺮﺍاﺭرﺍا ﺧﻼﻝل ﺍاﻟﻘﺮﻥن ﺍاﻟﻌﺸﺮ ﻦ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺼ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺃأﻭو ﺗﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻨﻪﮫ؛ ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 1977‬ﻗﺪﻡم ﺍاﻟﺮﺋ ﺲ ﺃأﻧﻮﺭر ﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺩدﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﺇإﺻﻼﺣﺎﺗﻪﮫ ﺍاﻟﺸ ﺓة ﺍاﳌﺒﻜﺮﺓة‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‪ ،‬ﻭوﺣﺪﺙث ﺫذﻟﻚ ﻛﺠﺰﺀء ﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌﻔﺎﻭوﺿﺎﺕت‬

‫ﻣﻊ ﺻﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو )‪ 38(IMF‬ﻭوﺟﺎﺀء ﻌﺪ ﺣﻮﺍا ﻋﻘﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺍاﺕت ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‬

‫‪   36‬ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻼﻳﻘ ﻥن ﺍاﻟﻜﺒ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻳﻠﻒ ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﺟﻪﮫ ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺟ ﻮﺩد‬
‫" ﺳ ﺪﺍاﻑف ﺍاﻟﺬﺍا ﻲ" ‪  ‬ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﺭر ﻤﺎ ﻳﺠﺮﻱي ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺎ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ؛ ﻓﻔﻲ ﺩد ﺴﻤ ‪   2012‬ﺗﻢ ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺩدﻋﻢ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯزﻭوﻟ ﻥن ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻭوﻛﺘﺎﻥن‪ ،‬ﻭوﻧﻮﻗﺶ ﺃأﺳﻠﻮﺏب ﺍاﻟﺒﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺬﻛﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺯز ﻊ ﺣﺼﺺ ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯزﻭوﻟ ﻥن‪  .‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪  :‬ﺍاﳌﺌﺎﺕت ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺃأ ﺎﺏب ﺍاﳌﺨﺎﺑﺰ ﻳﻘﺘﺤﻤﻮﻥن ﻭوﺯزﺍاﺭرﺓة ﺍاﻟﺘﻤﻮ ﻦ ﻣﺠﺪﺩدﺍا )ﻡم‪.(28‬‬
‫‪  37‬ﺃأﺑﻮ ﺍاﻟﻌﻴﻨ ﻥن )ﻡم‪.(29‬‬
‫‪  38‬ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ ﻟﻺﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﺼﺮ‪  ..‬ﻓ ﻢ ﺩدﻭوﺭر ﺍاﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕت‪  :‬ﺳﻔﻴﺎﻥن ﺍاﻟﻌ )ﻡم‪  .(30‬‬
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‫ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻭوﺻﻞ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺇإ ﺩدﺭرﺟﺔ ﺷﻤﻞ ﻓ ﺎ ﻋﺪﺩدﺍا ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺋﻴﺔ ﺍا ﺪﻳﺪﺓة ﺎﻟﺬﺭرﺓة ﻭوﺍاﻟﺮﺯز ﻭوﺍاﻟﺴﻤﻚ ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﻢ ﺍاﳌﺠﻤﺪ ﻭوﻏ ﺎ‪  39.‬‬
‫ﻭوﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺘﺠﺎﺟﺎﺕت ﺍا ﻤﺎ ﻳﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻋﺮﻓﺖ ﺑﺎﺳﻢ "ﺍاﻧﺘﻔﺎﺿﺔ ﺍا‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥن ﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺃأﻋﻠﻦ ﻋﻨﻪﮫ‬

‫ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪ 1977‬ﻟﻢ ﻳﻜﻦ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺒﻠﺪﻱي ﺃأﻭو ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﻋﺪﺩد ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺋﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺮﺋ ﺴﻴﺔ‬

‫"‪،‬‬

‫ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍا‬
‫ﺧﺮﻯى ﺎﻟﻌﺪﺱس‬

‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﻔﺎﺻﻮﻟﻴﺎﺀء ‪  ‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺰ ﺖ ﺍاﻟﻨﺒﺎ ﻲ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺴﻜﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﻧﻤﺎ ﺎﻥن ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺸﻤﻞ ﻧﻮﻋﺎ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﺃأﻏ ﺛﻤﻨﺎ )ﺍاﻟﻔﻴﻨﻮ(‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﺑﻴﺾ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻳﺼﻨﻊ ﻣﻨﻪﮫ ﺬﺍا ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻝل ﻭوﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯزﻭوﻟ ﻥن ﻭوﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺎﺋﺮ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺸﺎﻱي‪.‬‬

‫ﻭو ﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭر ﺔ ﺸ ﻞ ﺭرﺋ‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﺩدﻓﻊ ﺍا‬

‫ﻋﻤﺪﺕت ﻌﺪ ﺎ ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﺃأﻛ‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺍاﻧﺪﻟﻌﺖ‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺮﺯز ‪  ‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯز‬

‫ﺣﺘﺠﺎﺟﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻘﺎ ﺮﺓة‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺇإ ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺇإﻥن ﺍا‬

‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪  .‬‬

‫ﻭوﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺫذﻟﻚ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﺒ ﻥن ﺳﺮ ﻌﺎ ﺃأﻥن ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﻻﻣﺴﺘﺪﺍاﻡم‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻋﻠﻨﺖ‬
‫ﺣ ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺮﺋ ﺲ ﻣﺒﺎﺭرﻙك‬

‫ﺃأﻭوﺍاﺋﻞ ﺍاﻟﺜﻤﺎﻧﻴ ﻴﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓة ﻣﻦ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺗﻀﻤﻨﺖ‪  :‬‬
‫ﺑﺬﻝل ﻣﺤﺎﻭوﻻﺕت‬

‫ﻌﻞ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺴ ﺪﻑف ﺷﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﻌﻴ ﺎ ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺧﻼﻝل ﺇإﺻﺪﺍاﺭر ﻧﻮﻋ ﻥن ﻣﻦ ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕت )ﺍا ﺼﺺ ﺍاﻟﺘﻤﻮ ﻴﺔ(‪   :‬ﺧﻀﺮﺍاﺀء‬
‫ﻭوﺣﻤﺮﺍاﺀء‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻧﺖ ﺍا ﻤﺮﺍاﺀء ﺗﻘﺪﻡم ﺩدﻋﻤﺎ ﺃأﻗﻞ ﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻏﺬﺍاﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﺤﺪﺩدﺓة‪  .‬‬
‫ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺩدﻋﻢ ﻌﺾ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺎﻟ ﻮﻡم ﻭوﺍاﻟﺴﻤﻚ‪  .‬‬

‫‪  39‬ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻣﺼﺮ )ﻡم‪(11‬؛ ﺹص‪  .6‬‬
‫‪  40‬ﺍاﳌﺼﺪﺭرﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ؛ ﺹص‪.7‬‬
‫‪529‬‬

‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻋﺪﺩد ﺍاﳌﺆ ﻠ ﻥن ﻟﺘﻠﻘﻲ ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕت )ﺍا ﺼﺺ ﺍاﻟﺘﻤﻮ ﻴﺔ( ‪  ‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺃأﻭوﺍاﺋﻞ ﺍاﻟﺜﻤﺎﻧﻴ ﻴﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﺇإ ﺣﻮﺍا )‪  (%70‬‬

‫)‪  (%99‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪  41.1998‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺍاﻟﺘﺪﺭر‬

‫ﻋﻦ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﻌﺾ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭو ﺳﺘﻌﺎﺿﺔ ﻋ ﺎ ﺑﺒﺪﺍاﺋﻞ‬

‫ﺃأﺧﻒ ﻭوﻃﺄﺓة‪  .‬‬
‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻭوﺯزﻥن ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻴﻒ ﺍاﻟﺒﻠﺪﻱي ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻡم ﻣﻦ )‪168‬ﻍغ(‪  ‬ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 1981‬ﺇإ‬
‫)‪130‬ﻍغ(‪  ‬ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪  42.1991‬‬
‫ﻭوﻧ ﻴﺠﺔ ﻟ ﺬﻩ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻧﺨﻔﺾ ﺍاﻟﻌﺐﺀء ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‬
‫ﺍاﳌﺪﺓة )‪ ،(1994-1980‬ﻟﻜﻨﻪﮫ ﺍاﺳﺘﺄﻧﻒ ﺍاﺭرﺗﻔﺎﻋﻪﮫ ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪  43.‬‬
‫ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﻘﺪ ﻭوﻝل ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﺮﻥن ﺍا ﺎ ﺃأﻃﻠﻘﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺇإﺻﻼﺣﺎ ﻭوﺍاﺳﻌﺎ‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل‬

‫ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺰﺍاﺩدﺕت ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯزﻭوﻟ ﻥن ﻭوﺍاﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل ﻭوﻃﺒﻘﺖ ﺁآﻟﻴﺎﺕت ﻟﺰ ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‬
‫ﺸ ﻞ ﺗﺪﺭر ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺣﺪﺙث ﺫذﻟﻚ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺪﺓة )‪  .(2008-2005‬ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2008‬ﺟﺮﺕت ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة‬

‫ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯز ﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻝل ﻭوﻭوﺿﻌﺖ ﺧﻄﻂ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﺍاﻟﺘﺪﺭر‬
‫‪ 2014‬؛ ﻟﻜﻦ ﺬﻩ ﺍا‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم‬

‫ﻮﺩد ﺗﻢ ﺍاﻟﺘﺨ ﻋ ﺎ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2009‬ﻣﻊ ﺑﺪﺍاﻳﺔ ﺯزﻣﺔ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﺯزﺩدﺍاﺩد ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺇإ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﺍاﻩ ﺍا ﺎ ﺍاﻟﻼﻣﺴﺘﺪﺍاﻡم‪  44.‬‬

‫ﻭو ﻌﺪ ﺍاﻟﺮ ﻴﻊ ﺍاﻟﻌﺮ ﻲ ﻟﻢ ﺴﺘﻄﻊ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﻣﺤﺎﻭوﻻﺕت ﺻﻼﺡح ﺃأﻥن ﻌﻤﺮ ﻃﻮ ﻼ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻨﺎﻣﻰ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ؛ ‪  ‬ﻭوﺩدﺃأﺑﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﻋ ﺇإﺻﺪﺍاﺭر ﺇإﻋﻼﻧﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺷﺒﻪﮫ ﺃأﺳﺒﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺣﻮﻝل ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺴﺒ ﺖ ﺬﻩ ﻋﻼﻧﺎﺕت‬
‫ﺑﻤﻮﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﻌﺾ ﺣﻴﺎﻥن‬

‫ﻂ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺣﺼﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍاﻗﺘﺤﺎﻡم ﻭوﺯزﺍاﺭرﺓة ﺍاﻟﺘﻤﻮ ﻦ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺓة ﺍاﻟﺪﺍاﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ‬

‫‪  41‬ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ ﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء )ﻡم‪(12‬؛ ﺹص‪.463‬‬
‫‪  42‬ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻣﺼﺮ )ﻡم‪(11‬؛ ﺹص‪.9‬‬
‫‪  43‬ﺍاﳌﺼﺪﺭرﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ؛ ﺹص‪.8‬‬
‫‪  44‬ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﺼﺮ‪  :‬ﻓ ﺴ ﺖ ﺎﺳ ﻴﻞ )ﻡم‪.(31‬‬
‫‪520‬‬

‫ﻗﺒﻞ ﺃأ‬

‫ﺎﺏب ﺍاﳌﺨﺎﺑﺰ ﻣﺎﺭرﺱس ‪2013‬؛‪ 45‬ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺩدﺭرﺟﺖ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﺩدﺓة ﻋ ﺇإﻋﻼﻥن ﺍاﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕت ﺩدﻭوﻥن‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻘﻴﺪ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﺃأﺩدﻯى ﺇإ ﺗﺪﻣ ﻣﺼﺪﺍاﻗﻴﺔ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﳌﺠﺎﻝل‪  46.‬‬

‫ﻭوﻟﺘﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺍاﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﻋﺘﺒﺎﻃﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺻﻼﺡح ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﺑﻤﺎ ﺣﺪﺙث‬
‫ﺩد ﺴﻤ ‪ ،2012‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃأﻋﻠﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﺨ ﻋﻦ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯزﻭوﻟ ﻥن ‪ 95‬ﺃأﻭوﻛﺘﺎﻥن‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻪﮫ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﻏ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﻥن‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺬﺍا ﺟﺮﺍاﺀء ﻟﻢ ﻳﺆﺩد ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﻓ‬
‫ﺎﻧﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕت ﻛﻤﺎ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﺄﻣﻞ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺇإﻧﻪﮫ ﺩدﻓﻊ ﺍاﳌﺴ ﻠﻜ ﻥن ﺇإ ﺷﺮﺍاﺀء ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯزﻭوﻟ ﻥن ‪ 92‬ﺃأﻭوﻛﺘﺎﻥن‪ 47،‬ﻓﺨﻠﻖ‬

‫ﺫذﻟﻚ ﺃأﺯزﻣﺎﺕت ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﻨﻮﻉع ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد‪  .‬ﻭو ﻣﺎﺭرﺱس ‪ 2013‬ﺃأﻋﻠﻨﺖ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯز ﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻝل ﺑ ﺴﺒﺔ )‪   (%60‬ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍاﻡم ﺍاﳌ‬

‫ﻭو ﺴﺒﺔ )‪   (%100‬ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍاﻡم‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﻱي‪ 48.  ‬ﻭوﻣﻨﺬ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2012‬ﻌﺎ ﻲ ﻣﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﺯزﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺴﺘﻮﺭرﺩد‬

‫)‪   (%70‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﺎﺟ ﺎ ﺇإﻟﻴﻪﮫ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻋﻮﺿﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺳﻌﺮ‬

‫ﻣﻮﺍاﺟ ﺔ ﺍاﻟﻀﻐﻮﻁط ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﺪﻳﺰﻝل‪ ،‬ﺎﻧﺖ‬

‫ﺑﻴﻊ ﻣﻘﺪﺍاﺭر ﺃأﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺬﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد‪ 49،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺬﺍا ﺟﺮﺍاﺀء ﻟﻢ ﻳﻘﺪﻡم ﺣﻼ ﻧﺎﺟﻌﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺸ ﻠﺔ‪   .‬ﻭو‬

‫ﻢ ﻣﻤﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺃأﻥن‬

‫ﺃأﺳﻠﻮﺏب )ﺍا ﺼﺺ(‪  ‬ﺗﻮﺯز ﻊ ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻳﺒﺎﻉع ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﻣﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ ﺟﺮﻯى ﺗﺄﺟﻴﻠﻪﮫ ﺣ‬
‫ﺳ ﺘﻤ ‪ ، 2013‬ﻭوﺣ‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺟﺮﺍاﺀء ﻻ ﻳﻘﺪﻡم ﺣﻼ ﺩدﺍاﺋﻤﺎ ﳌﺸ ﻠﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﻥن ﺎﻥن ﻳﺨﻔﻒ‬

‫ﻌﺾ ﺍاﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﺍاﳌﺎ ﺍاﻟﺮﺍا ﻦ ﻋﻦ ﺎ ﻞ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ؛ ﺃأﻣﺎ ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺣﺼﻞ ﻧﻘﻼﺏب‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻠ ﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻮﺍا‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺎﻥن ﺣ‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺘﻐﻴ ﺍاﻟﻀ ﻴﻞ ﺳﻴﺄﺧﺬ ﻃﺮ ﻘﻪﮫ ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬

‫ﻋ ﺃأﺭرﺽض ﺍاﻟﻮﺍاﻗﻊ‪  .‬‬

‫‪  45‬ﺍاﳌﺌﺎﺕت ﻣﻦ ﺃأ ﺎﺏب ﺍاﳌﺨﺎﺑﺰ ﻳﻘﺘﺤﻤﻮﻥن ﻭوﺯزﺍاﺭرﺓة ﺍاﻟﺘﻤﻮ ﻦ ﻣﺠﺪﺩدﺍا )ﻡم‪.(28‬‬
‫‪  46‬ﻭوﺟﺒﺔ ﺍاﻟﻔﻄﻮﺭر‪  ..  ‬ﻣﺼﺮ ﺗﺨﻔﻒ ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪  :‬ﻓﺮﺡح ﺣﻠﻴﻤﺔ )ﻡم‪.(32‬‬
‫‪  47‬ﺇإﻋﺎﺩدﺓة ﺍاﺑﺘ ﺎﺭرﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﺼﺮ‪  :‬ﻓﺮﺡح ﺣﻠﻴﻤﺔ )ﻡم‪.(33‬‬
‫‪  48‬ﺃأﺯزﻣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل ﺗﻔﺎﻗﻢ ﺍاﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕت ﻣﺼﺮ‪  :‬ﺑﻮﺭرﺯزﻭو ﺩدﺍاﺭرﺍاﻏﺎ )ﻡم‪.(34‬‬
‫‪  49‬ﺍاﳌﺼﺪﺭرﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪.‬‬
‫‪521‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺏب ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻜﻮﻣﻲ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﻣﺎ ﻌﺎﻧﻴﻪﮫ ﻣﺼﺮ ﺟﺮﺍاﺀء ﻣﺸ ﻠﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟ ﺲ ﺃأﻣﺮﺍا ﺧﺎﺻﺎ ﺎ ﺩدﻭوﻥن‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﻕق ﻭوﺳﻂ‬

‫ﺫذﻟﻚ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺍاﻃﻠﻌﻨﺎ ﻋ ﺃأﺣﻮﺍاﻝل ﺷﻘﻴﻘﺎ ﺎ‬
‫ﻏ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭو‬
‫ﱠ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪﺍاﺭرﺍاﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡح ﺟ ﻮﺩد ﺻﻼﺡح ﻭوﺍاﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر ﺔ ﺬﻩ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت‬
‫ﻭوﺷﻤﺎﻝل ﺃأﻓﺮ ﻘﻴﺎ؛ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺇإﻥن‬
‫ﻳﺘﻔﺎﻭوﺕت ﻣﻦ ﻣ ﺎﻥن ﻵﺧﺮ ﻋ ﺍاﻣﺘﺪﺍاﺩد ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺏب ﺍاﻟ ﻧ‬

‫ﺖ ﺸ ﻞ ﻭوﺍا‬

‫ﻣﺴﺎﻋ ﺎ ﻻ ﺸ ﻞ ﺇإﻻ ﻗﻠﺔ ﻗﻠﻴﻠﺔ؛‪ 50‬ﺃأﻣﺎ ﻋ ﺻﻌﻴﺪ ﺍاﳌﺤﻴﻂ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي ﻓﻘﺪ ﺣﺎﻭوﻟﺖ‬
‫ﻋﺪﺓة ﺩدﻭوﻝل ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺼ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻓ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺟﺎﺀءﺕت ﺍاﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭوﺗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻠﺪ‬

‫ﻵﺧﺮ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻓﻔﻲ ﺗﻮ ﺲ‪ ،‬ﻋ ﺳ ﻴﻞ ﺍاﳌﺜﺎﻝل‪ ،‬ﺸ ﻞ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬

‫ﺣﻮﺍا )‪   (%5‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻟﻢ ﻳﺒﺬﻝل ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺃأﻱي ﺟ ﻮﺩد ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻟﻢ ﻳﺤﺼﻞ ﺳﻮﻯى ﺍاﺭرﺗﻔﺎﻉع ﻣﺮﺗﺠﻞ ﻟﻸﺳﻌﺎﺭر‬

‫ﻭو‪ ،2007‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇإ ﻭوﺿﻊ ﺳﻘﻒ ﻟﻠﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫‪ 2012‬ﺯزﺍاﺩدﺕت ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣ ﻥن ‪2005‬‬

‫ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪2009‬؛ ﻭو ﺳ ﺘﻤ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯزﻭوﻟ ﻥن ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍاﺭر )‪   (%7.3‬ﻭوﺳﻌﺮ ﺍاﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍاﺭر‬

‫)‪  51.(%7.9‬‬
‫ﻭو ﺍاﳌﻐﺮﺏب‪ ،‬ﻭوﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌﺤﺎﻭوﻻﺕت ﺍاﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩدﺓة ﻟﻺﺻﻼﺡح‪ ،‬ﺑﻠﻐﺖ ﺣﺼﺔ ﺩدﻋﻢ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺣﻮﺍا )‪   (%15‬ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻭوﺻﻠﺖ ﻗﻴﻤ ﺎ ﺍاﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﺇإ ﺣﻮﺍا‬

‫ﺿﻌﻔﻲ ﻣﺎ ﺎﻧﺖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪﮫ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪  52.2010‬‬
‫ﻭو ﺳﻮﺭر ﺎ ﺗﻀﻤﻨﺖ ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت ﺻﻼﺡح‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺗﻢ ﺗ ﻨ ﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪،2011‬‬
‫ﺇإ ﺸﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﺍاﻟﻮﻃ‬

‫ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻮﻧﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺷﺮﺍاﻑف ﻋ‬

‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬

‫‪  50‬ﺩدﻟﻴﻞ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ ﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ )ﻡم‪(7‬؛ ﺹص‪.10‬‬
‫‪   51‬ﺍاﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑ ﻥن ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﺟﻨﻮﺏب ﻭوﺷﺮﻕق ﺍاﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪   :‬ﺇإﻳﻤﺎﻧﻮ ﻞ‬
‫ﺑ ﻏﺎ ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )ﻡم‪(35‬؛ ﺹص‪.18‬‬
‫‪   52‬ﺍاﳌﻐﺮﺏب ﻌﻠﻦ ﺑﺄﻧﻪﮫ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت ﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻳﻮﻧﻴﻮ ‪   :2013‬ﻋﺰﺰ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻴﻌﻘﻮ ﻲ )ﻡم‪.(36‬‬
‫‪522‬‬

‫ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺍاﻟﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺬﻩ ﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت ﺗﻮﻗﻔﺖ ﻌﺪ ﺍاﻧﺪﻻﻉع‬
‫ﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍا ﺮﺏب‬
‫ﻭو‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺒﻠﺪ‪  53.‬‬

‫ﺭرﺩدﻥن ﺃأﻗﺮﺕت ﺍا‬

‫ﳌﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2010‬ﺇإﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﻭوﺍاﺳﻌﺔ ﺍاﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕق‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺷ ﺪ ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﻛﺒ ﺓة ﻌﺪ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺮ ﻴﻊ ﺍاﻟﻌﺮ ﻲ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺎﻥن ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺸ ﻞ ﺣﻮﺍا )‪  (%1‬ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ ﺍاﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍاﻟﻮﻃ‬
‫ﻟﻴﺼﻞ ﻌﺪ ﺎ ﺇإ ﺃأﻛ ﻣﻦ )‪  (%6‬ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪  54.2011‬‬
‫ﻭو ﺇإﻳﺮﺍاﻥن ﺑﺎﺷﺮﺕت ﺍا‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2010‬ﺑﺈﺻﻼﺡح ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﳌﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ 55،‬ﻭوﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﻥن ﺍاﳌﺮﺍاﺣﻞ ﻭو ﻟﻺﺻﻼﺡح‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺗﻀﻤﻨﺖ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬

‫ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺷﻤﻠﺖ ﺍا ﻤﻴﻊ ﺗﻘﺮ ﺒﺎ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪ ﺣﻘﻘﺖ ﺍاﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡح‬

‫ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍاﻟﺒﻌﺾ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺃأﻭوﻗﻔﺖ ﺟ ﻮﺩد ﺎ ﻹ ﺸﺎﺀء ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﺤﻘﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓة ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ؛ ﻭوﻧﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺫذﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺍاﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺩدﻭوﻥن ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺨﻄﻂ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻷﻱي ﺟ ﻮﺩد ﺇإﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺗﺠﺎﻩ‬

‫ﺗﺤﺮ ﺮ ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‪  56.‬‬
‫ﻭوﻟﻼﻃﻼﻉع ﻋ‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﺔ ﻭوﺍا‬

‫ﺗﺠﺎﺭرﺏب ﻧﺎ‬

‫ﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻼ ﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍا ﺮﻭوﺝج ﻣﻦ ﺩدﺍاﺋﺮﺓة ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﻕق ﻭوﺳﻂ ﻭوﺷﻤﺎﻝل ﺃأﻓﺮ ﻘﻴﺎ؛ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺸ‬

‫ﺗﻘﺮ ﺮ ﺣﺪﻳﺚ ﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو‬
‫ﻭوﺃأﻭوﻏﻨﺪﺍا ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭر ﺎ ﺩدﻭوﻻ ﻧ‬

‫ﺖ‬

‫‪57‬‬

‫ﺇإ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺎ ﻭوﺍاﻟﻔﻠﺒ ﻥن ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻞ ﻭو ﺸﻴ ﻭوﻛﻴ ﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺇإﻗﺮﺍاﺭر ﺇإﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت‬

‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﻥن‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻢ ﻣ ﺍاﻧﻴﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﻮﺩد‬

‫ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﺃأﻗﻞ ﺑﻜﺜ‬

‫‪  53‬ﺍاﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑ ﻥن ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﺟﻨﻮﺏب ﻭوﺷﺮﻕق ﺍاﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ )ﻡم‪(35‬؛ ﺹص‪.22‬‬
‫‪  54‬ﺭرﺩدﻥن‪  ..‬ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﺎﺭرﺓة‪  :‬ﺻﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو )ﻡم‪.(37‬‬
‫ﻮﺩد ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ‪   :‬ﺩدﻭوﻣﻴ ﻴﻚ ﻏﻴﻠﻴﺎﻡم ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )‪(38‬؛‬
‫‪   55‬ﺇإﻳﺮﺍاﻥن‪   ..‬ﻋﺮﺽض ﺯزﻣ‬
‫ﺹص‪.6‬‬

‫‪56‬‬

‫‪  ‬ﺩدﺭرﺍاﺳﺎﺕت ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺣﻮﻝل ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫)ﻡم‪(39‬؛ ﺹص‪.28‬‬
‫‪  57‬ﺍاﳌﺼﺪﺭرﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪  .‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪   ..‬ﺩدﺭرﻭوﺱس ﻭوﺗﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت‪   :‬ﺻﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو‬

‫‪523‬‬

‫ﻣﻤﺎ ﻧﻼﺣﻈﻪﮫ‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﺍا ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ‪   .‬ﻭو ﻐﺾ ﺍاﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﻦ ﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽض ﺍاﻟ ﺴ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‬
‫ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﻧﺘ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺍا ﺮﻭوﺝج ﺑﺪﺭرﻭوﺱس ﻣﻔﻴﺪﺓة ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺎ ﺩدﻭوﻝل ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﺧﺮﻯى‬

‫ﻃﻼﻉع ﻋ‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﳌﺠﺎﻝل ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺎ‪  ‬‬
‫ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 1990‬ﺎﻧﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻛﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد‪ ،‬ﻓ ﺎﻧﺖ ﺗﺼﺪﺭر ﺃأﻭوﺍاﻣﺮ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﻳﺪﻳﺮ ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭو‬

‫ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‪ ،‬ﻭوﺗﺪﻋﻢ ﺬﻩ‬

‫ﻭوﺍاﳌﺴ ﻠﻜ ﻥن ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﺍاﺀء‪  .‬ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 1990‬ﺑﺪﺃأﺕت ﺧ‬

‫ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺠ ﻥن‬

‫ﺼﺔ ﺍاﻟﺸﺮ ﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺍاﺳﺘﻜﺸﺎﻑف ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻝل ﻭوﺗﻮﺯز ﻊ ﺍاﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺗﻢ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍاﻟﻀﻮﺍاﺑﻂ‬

‫ﻌﻤﻞ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﻔﺮﻭوﺿﺔ ﻋ‬
‫ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌ‬

‫ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺸ ﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪   .‬ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 1998‬ﺗﺒ ﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺃأﺳﻠﻮﺏب‬

‫ﻓﻮﺿﻌﺖ ﺳﻘﻔﺎ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ ﻭوﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻸﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻭوﻣﻊ‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍاﻋﺎﺓة ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﺼﺮﻑف ﺍاﻟﺮﺍا ﻨﺔ‪   .‬ﻭوﻋ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺤﺮ ﺮ ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻧﺨﻔﺎﺿ ﺎ ﻋﻦ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻘﻒ ﺍاﳌﺤﺪﺩد‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﻭوﻗﻔﺖ ﻣﻌﻮﻗﺎﺕت ﻣ ﻤﺔ ﻭوﺟﻪﮫ ﺍاﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝل ﺇإ‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻧﺖ‬

‫ﺬﻩ ﺍاﳌﻌﻮﻗﺎﺕت ﺗﺤﺎ ﻲ ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺍاﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺮ ﺮ )ﺗﺮﻭوﺭرﺍاﺱس ‪  .(Truras‬ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪2003‬‬
‫ﺃأ ﺸ ﺖ ﻭو ﺎﻟﺔ ﺣ ﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﻀﺒﻂ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﻭوﺗﻢ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍاﻟﻀﻮﺍاﺑﻂ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺗﻘﻴﺪ ﺳﻮﻕق ﺍاﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺛﻢ ﺟﺮﻯى ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2005‬ﺗﺤﺮ ﺮ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺸ ﻞ‬
‫ﺎﻣﻞ‪  .‬ﻭوﻟﻢ ﺗ ﺄ ﺍا ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻛﻴﺔ ﺇإ ﺃأﺳﻠﻮﺏب ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﻧﻤﺎ ّ‬
‫ﻗﺪﻣﺖ‬
‫ﺇإﻋﻔﺎﺀءﺍاﺕت ﺿﺮ ﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺿﺮ ﺒﺔ ﺍاﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍاﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻭوﻏ ﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻀﺮﺍاﺋﺐ ﺳ ﻼﻛﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺸﺮ ﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻟﻠﻐﺎﺯزﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻝل‪ ،‬ﻭوﻟﻠﺪﻳﺰﻝل ﺍاﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡم ﺍاﻟﺰﺭرﺍاﻋﺔ‪  58.‬‬
‫ﻭوﻋ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎ ﻲ‬

‫ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣﻤﺎﺛﻞ‪ ،‬ﺎﻧﺖ ﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻭوﺣﻴﺪﺓة )‪   (TEK‬ﻴﻤﻦ ﻋ‬

‫ﺳﻮﻕق‬

‫ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺴﻴﻄﺮ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭوﺍاﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺘﻮﺯز ﻊ؛ ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺑﺪﺃأ ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ ،1993‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺟ ﻮﺩد ﺍا‬

‫ﺼﺔ ﻟﻢ ﺗﺒﺪﺃأ ﺇإﻻ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪  .1999‬ﻭو‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2001‬ﺑﺪﺃأﺕت ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕت ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﺃأﺧﺮﻯى ﻟﺸﺮ ﺎﺕت ﻣﻤﻠﻮﻛﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭوﻟﺔ ﻌﻤﻞ‬
‫‪  58‬ﺍاﳌﺼﺪﺭرﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ؛ ﺹص‪.69-67‬‬
‫‪524‬‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2008‬ﺃأﻋﻠﻨﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺰ ﺎﺩدﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇإ ﺁآﻟﻴﺔ ﺴﻌ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘ ﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﻘﻮﻡم ﺑﺘﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﻞ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ‬
‫ﺃأﺷ ﺮ‪  59.‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻔﻠﺒ ﻥن‪  ‬‬
‫ﺍاﺳﺘﻤﺮ ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻴ ﺲ ﻳﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺸﺆﻭوﻥن ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌ‬
‫ﺎﻳﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌﻴ ﻴﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻧﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻗﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻔﻠﺒ ﻥن ﺣ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﻤﻌﻈﻢ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭو ‪،‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃأﻗﺮﺕت ﻋﺪﺓة ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﻛﺒ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭرﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪  .‬ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 1997‬ﺃأﻗﺪﻣﺖ‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﻔﻠﺒﻴ ﻴﺔ ﻋ‬

‫ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﻀﻮﺍاﺑﻂ ﺍاﳌﻔﺮﻭوﺿﺔ ﻋ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭو ؛ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ‬

‫ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﻭوﺣﺮﺭرﺕت‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻧﻔﺴﻪﮫ ﺑﺈﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺻﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﺗﺜ ﻴﺖ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺎﻥن ﻳﺠﻤﻊ ﺃأﻭو ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺍاﻟﻔﺮﻕق ﻣﺎ ﺑ ﻥن ﺍاﻟﺘ ﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭرﺩدﺓة ﻭو ﻥن ﺳﻌﺎﺭرﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ‪  60.‬‬
‫ﻭو ﺸ ﻞ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪﮫ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﻔﻠﺒﻴ ﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2001‬ﺑﺈﻃﻼﻕق ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭوﺍاﺳﻌﺔ ﺍاﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕق ﻹﻋﺎﺩدﺓة ﻴ ﻠﺔ ﻗﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺗﺪﻳﺮﻩ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭوﺍاﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺪﺃأﺕت ﺟ ﻮﺩدﺍا ﻟ‬
‫‪ 2004‬ﻭو‪ 2005‬ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺍاﺕت ﻛﺒ ﺓة‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍاﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر ﺍا‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃأﻗﺮﺕت ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﺼﻠﺖ ﺑ ﻥن‬

‫ﺼﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺣﺮﺭرﺕت ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‪   .‬ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺷ ﺪ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣﺎﻥن‬
‫ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﻭوﺻﻠﺖ ﺇإ ﺣﻮﺍا )‪ ،(%30‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ‬

‫ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺭرﺳﻮﻡم ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﺪﻓﻌ ﺎ ﺳﺮ ﺍاﻟﻔﻘ ﺓة‪.‬‬

‫‪61‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻋﺪﺓة ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت ﻟﻠﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻣ ﺎ‪  :‬ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺭرﺳﻮﻡم ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﻟﻸﺳﺮ ﺷﺪ‬

‫‪   59‬ﻟﻼﻃﻼﻉع ﻋ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺷ ﺪ ﺎ ﺳﻮﻕق ﻗﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺎ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉع ﺇإ ‪  :‬ﺻﻼﺡح‬
‫ﻗﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻲ‪  ..‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ‪  :‬ﺇإﺭر ﺎﻥن ‪  ‬ﺇإﺭرﺩدﻭوﻏﺪﻭو )ﻡم‪(40‬؛ ﺹص‪.993-984‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴ‬
‫‪60‬‬
‫‪  ‬ﺩدﺭرﺍاﺳﺎﺕت ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺣﻮﻝل ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ )ﻡم‪(39‬؛ ﺹص‪.62-60‬‬
‫‪   61‬ﻟﻼﻃﻼﻉع ﻋ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺷ ﺪ ﺎ ﺳﻮﻕق ﻗﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﻔﻠﺒ ﻥن ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉع ﺇإ ‪  :‬ﺗﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت‬
‫ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻗﻄﺎﻉع ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻋﺎﻳﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﻔﻠﺒ ﻥن‪  :‬ﻧﺎ ﺴﻮ ﻮ ﺗﻮ ﺎ )ﻡم‪(41‬؛ ﺹص‪.6162-6145‬‬
‫‪525‬‬

‫ﻓﻘﺮﺍا‪ ،‬ﻭوﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻣﻨﺢ ﺩدﺭرﺍاﺳﻴﺔ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺗﻮﺯز ﻊ ﺍاﻟﺮﺯز ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻡم‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇإ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﻣﺸﺮﻭوﻁط ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪  62.‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻞ‪  ‬‬
‫ﻴﻤﻨﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻠﻴﺔ ﳌﺪﺓة ﻃﻮ ﻠﺔ ﻋ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻝل ﺍاﳌﻤﻠﻮﻛﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭوﻟﺔ‬

‫ﺑ ﻭو ﺮﺍاﺱس )‪(Petrobras‬؛ ﻓ ﺎﻧﺖ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯز ﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻝل ﻭوﺍاﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل ﺃأﻗﻞ ﺩدﺍاﺋﻤﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗ ﺎﻟﻴﻔ ﺎ‬
‫ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻛﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت ﻣﺴﺘﻮﺭرﺩدﺓة‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﺃأﺩدﻯى ﺇإ ﻣﻌﺎﻧﺎﺓة ﺍا‬
‫ﺰ ﻛﺒ ﺓة‬

‫ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ‪   .‬ﻭو ﺃأﻭوﺍاﺋﻞ ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌﻴ ﻴﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﺃأﻗﺪﻣﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺗﻼ ﻤﺎ ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯزﻭوﻟ ﻥن‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪،1996‬‬

‫ﻋ ﺗﺤﺮ ﺮ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺳﻔﻠﺖ ﻭوﺯز ﻮﺕت ﺍاﻟ‬
‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯز ﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻝل‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻭو ﻭو ﺮﺍاﺱس ﻣﻦ ﺣﺎﻻﺕت‬

‫‪ ،1998‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝل‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺩدﻭوﻥن ﺗﺤﺮ ﺮ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ،2001‬ﻭوﻟﻢ ﻳﺒﻖ ﻨﺎﻟﻚ‬
‫‪63‬‬

‫ﻭوﻗﺪ‬

‫ﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﻣ ﺎ‪  :‬ﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر ﺣ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪2012‬‬
‫ﺍا ﺮﺍاﺭر ﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‬

‫ﺄﺕت ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2002‬ﺃأﻱي ﺳﻌﺮ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻠﻴﺔ ﺇإ ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻪﮫ ﺍاﳌﺤﻄﺎﺕت‬

‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺃأﻣﺎﺯزﻭوﻧﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺗﻮﺯز ﻊ ﻗﺴﺎﺋﻢ ﺗﺤﻘﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﺯز ﻊ ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯز‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻝل‪ ،‬ﻭوﺗﻮﺯز ﻊ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭوﻃﺔ ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻥن ﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﻥن ﺧ ﺍاﻥن ﺟﺰﺀءﺍا ﻣﻦ ﺧﻄﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺮﻋﺎﻳﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻋﺮﻓﺖ ﺑﺎﺳﻢ ﺑﻮﻟﺴﺎ ﻓﺎﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎ )‪  64.(Bolsa Família‬‬
‫ﻭو‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺪﺓة )‪   (2003-1993‬ﺗﺎ ﻌﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﺼﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀء ﻐﻴ ﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻠﻴﺔ ﺟ ﻮﺩد ﺎ ﻓ ﺄﺕت ﺇإ‬

‫ﺴﻌ ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺗﺄﺳ ﺲ‬

‫‪   62‬ﻧﻈﺮﺓة ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠ ﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍاﳌﺸﺮﻭوﻁط ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃأﻭوﻟﻔﻴﻨﺪﻭو )ﻡم‪  .(42‬‬
‫‪   63‬ﻟﻼﻃﻼﻉع ﻋ ﻧﻈﺮﺓة ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﺣﻮﻝل ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺷ ﺪ ﺎ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻞ‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉع ﺇإ ‪   :‬ﺩدﺭرﻭوﺱس ﻣﻦ ﺗﺠﺮﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺣﻔﻮﺭرﻱي ﻭوﺇإﺻﻼﺣ ﺎ‪   :‬ﺃأﺩدﻳﻠﺴﻮﻥن ﺩدﻱي‬
‫ﺃأﻭوﻟﻴﻔ ﺍا ﻭوﺗﺎﺭرﺍا ﻻﻥن )ﻡم‪.(43‬‬
‫‪   64‬ﺍاﻟﺘﻔﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻟ ﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﻮﻟﺴﺎ ﻓﺎﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻞ‪   ..‬ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺃأﺳﻠﻮﺏب ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﺸﺮﻭوﻃﺔ‬
‫ﺿﻤﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﻕق ﻻﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱي‪  :  ‬ﺎ ﻲ ﻟﻴﻨﺪﻳﺮﺕت ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )ﻡم‪.(44‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻔﻠﺒ ﻥن‪   :‬ﻟﻮ ﺰﺍا ﻓﺮﻧﺎﻧﺪﻳﺰ ﻭوﺭرﻭوﺯز ﺸ ﻥن‬

‫‪526‬‬

‫ﻭو ﺎﻟﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓة ﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺷﺆﻭوﻥن ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‪ 65.‬ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺎﻧﺖ ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﻗﺒﻞ ﺬﻩ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﻻ‬
‫ﻌﻜﺲ ﺍاﻟﺘ ﺎﻟﻴﻒ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻥن ﻗﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻌﺎ ﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﻭوﻗﻌﺖ ﻋ‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﺎ ﻞ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺸ ﻞ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻱي‪   .‬ﻭو ﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺬﻩ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻌﺾ ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍاﳌﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ )‪ ،(cross-subsidies‬ﻭو ﺎﻷﺧﺺ‪   :‬ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻞ ﺍاﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍاﻟﺮ ﻔﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺷﺆﻭوﻥن‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﺻﺪﺍاﺭرﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭرﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻟﻸﺳﺮ ﺷﺪ ﻓﻘﺮﺍا‪  .‬‬

‫ﺸﻴ ‪  ‬‬
‫ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣﻐﺎﻳﺮ ﳌﺎ ﺣﺪﺙث‬

‫ﻋ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﺧﺮﻯى‪ ،‬ﻌﺮﺿﺖ ﺃأﺳﻮﺍاﻕق ﺍاﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺸﻴ ﻟﻠﻜﺜ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺎﻻﺕت ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌﻴ ﻴﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ؛ ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 1991‬ﺗﻢ ﺗﺄﺳ ﺲ ﺻﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺗﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺍاﻟ‬
‫ﺗﺼ ﺐ ﺍاﳌﺴ ﻠﻚ ﺍاﻟ ﺎ ﻲ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﻟﻢ ﻌﺪ ﻗﺎﺩدﺭرﺍا‬
‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﻌﺸﺮ ﻦ ﻋ‬

‫ﻳﻔﺎﺀء ﺑﺎﻟ ﺍاﻣﺎﺗﻪﮫ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭوﺗﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺍا‬

‫ﺃأﻭوﺍاﺋﻞ ﺍاﻟﻘﺮﻥن ﺍا ﺎﺩدﻱي‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺇإﻧﻘﺎﺫذﻩ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﺑﻤﺒﻠﻎ )‪26‬‬

‫ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥن ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر(‪ 66.‬ﻭوﻣﻊ ﻣﺮﻭوﺭر ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺩدﺧﻠﺖ ﺍاﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺗﺪﺭر ﺠﻴﺎ ﺇإ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭوﻕق‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺇإﻃﻼﻉع ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺱس ﺸ ﻞ ﺻﺮ ﺢ ﻋ ﻣﻌﺎﺩدﻟﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌ ﺍاﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ )ﻣﺜﻼ(‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﺟﺮﻯى ﺣﺼﺮﻩ ﺑﺄﻧﻮﺍاﻉع ﺃأﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد‪  .‬ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪2005‬‬
‫‪  ‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﻧﻄﺎﻕق ﻋﻤﻞ ﺬﺍا‬
‫ﺃأﻗﺮﺕت ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺻﻨﺪﻭوﻗﺎ ﺗﺜ ﻴ ﻴﺎ ﻣﺆﻗﺘﺎ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺗﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﻭو ﺪ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻠﺖ‬

‫ﺇإﻋﺼﺎﺭر ﺎﺗﺮ ﻨﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺍاﺳﺘﻤﺮ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺣ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪  .2010‬‬
‫ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2011‬ﺗﻢ ‪  ‬ﺳﺘﻌﺎﺿﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﺘﺜ ﻴ ﻴﺔ ﺑﺂﻟﻴﺔ ﺿﺮ ﻴﺔ‬

‫ُ‪  ‬ﺩدﻋﻴﺖ )ﺳ ﺒ ﻮ ‪   :SIPCO‬ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺍاﳌﺴ ﻠﻚ ﻟﻀﺮﺍاﺋﺐ ﻧﺘﺎﺝج ﺍاﳌﺤ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﻮﺩد(‪  ‬‬
‫ﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺿﺮﺍاﺋﺐ ﻧﺘﺎﺝج ﺍاﳌﺤ‬

‫ﻠﻤﺎ ﺍاﺭرﺗﻔﻌﺖ ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻓﻮﻕق ﻧﻄﺎﻕق ﻣﺤﺪﺩد‬

‫‪   65‬ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﻥن ﺇإﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌﻴ ﻴﺎﺕت ﻗﻄﻌﺖ ﺷﻮﻃﺎ ﻃﻮ ﻼ ﺍاﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ ﺍا ﻌﺪﺍاﻡم ﺍاﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀءﺓة‬
‫ﺿﻤﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟ ﺗﺪﻳﺮ ﺎ ﺍا ﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻼ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻮﻝل ﺑﺄ ﺎ ﺣﻘﻘﺖ ﺍاﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡح ﺍاﻟﺘﺎﻡم ﺧﻠﻖ ﺑ ﺌﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ ﺗﻤﺘ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺍاﺧﻠ ﻥن ﺇإﻟ ﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍا ﺎﺹص‪   .‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪   :‬ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻠﻴﺔ‪   :‬ﺃأﻭوﻏﺴﺘﻮ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺪﻭو ﺴﺎ ﻭو ﺎﺭرﻭوﻝل ﺩدﺍاﻝل )ﻡم‪(45‬؛ ﺹص‪  .83-73‬‬
‫‪  66‬ﺗﺄﺛ ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺸﻴ ‪  :‬ﺭرﺍاﻭوﻭوﻝل ﺃأﻭوﺭرﺍاﻳﺎﻥن ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )ﻡم‪(46‬؛ ﺹص‪.126‬‬
‫‪527‬‬

‫ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﻣﺮﺟﻌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﻀﺮﺍاﺋﺐ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍاﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽض ﺗﻠﻚ ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‪   67.‬ﻭوﻋ‬
‫ﺳﺘﻌﺎﺿﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺻﻨﺎﺩدﻳﻖ ﺍاﻟﺘﺜ ﻴﺖ ﺑﺂﻟﻴﺔ ﺿﺮ ﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺬﻩ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﺒﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺰﺍاﻝل ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺸﻮ ﺎ ﻏ ﺿﺮﻭوﺭرﻱي ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺎ ﺎﻥن ﺳﺎﺋﺪﺍا ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪  .1991‬‬

‫ﻛﻴ ﻴﺎ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺎﻧﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﻜﻴ ﻴﺔ ﺗﺜ ّ ﺖ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﻗﺒﻞ ﺣﻠﻮﻝل ﺍاﻟﻘﺮﻥن ﺍا ﺎﺩدﻱي‬

‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﻌﺸﺮ ﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﻋ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﺃأﻥن ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍا ﺎﺹص ﺩدﺧﻞ ﺇإ‬

‫ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌﻴ ﻴﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﺴ ﺐ ﻋﺪﻡم ﻗﺪﺭرﺓة ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﺍا‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﳌﺠﺎﻝل‬

‫ﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻋ‬

‫ﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر‬

‫ﺗﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻳﺪ‪   .‬ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2005‬ﺣﺼﻠﺖ ﻣﺮﺍاﺟﻌﺔ ﻟﺒ ﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﺟﻌﻞ‬
‫ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍا ﺪﻳﺪﺓة ﻌﻜﺲ ﺍاﻟﺘ ﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍاﻟ ﺎﻣﺸﻴﺔ ﻌﻴﺪﺓة ﺍاﳌﺪﻯى ﻭوﺍاﻟﺘﻐ ﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕت ﻭوﺗ ﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕت ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﺼﺮﻑف‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﺃأﺩدﻯى ﺇإ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻀﻤ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺎﻧﺖ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻈﻰ ﺑﻪﮫ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ؛ ﻓﻘﺒﻞ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺎﻥن ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬

‫ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﻷﻥن ﺫذﻟﻚ ﺎﻥن ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍاﻟﻜﺜ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﻔﺎﻭوﺽض ﻣﻊ ﺟ ﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺳ ﻼﻙك‬

‫ﺍا ﺎﺻﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻥن ﻳ ﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺫذﻟﻚ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺣ ﻮﻣﻲ ﺿﻤ ﺃأﻭو ﻣﻜﺸﻮﻑف ﻭوﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‪ 68.‬ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌ ﺍا ﺪﻳﺪﺓة ﻣﻨﺬ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2005‬ﻭوﻻﻗﺖ ﻗﺒﻮﻻ‬
‫ﺷﻌﺒﻴﺎ ﻷﻥن ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘ ﺎ ﺗﺮﺍاﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر ﺍاﺳ ﺜﻤﺎﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓة ّ‬
‫ﺣﺴ ﺖ ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﻭوﺗﻮﺯز ﻌ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد‬

‫ﺍاﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍاﻟﺮ ﻔﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺧﺺ‪ 69.‬ﻭو ﺴ ﺐ ﺍاﻟﻘﺤﻂ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺿﺮﺏب‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣ ﻥن ‪ 2008‬ﻭو‪ 2009‬ﻌﺎ ﺍاﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺑﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر‬

‫‪   67‬ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺔ ﳌﺎ ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﻭوﻧﻔﻘﺎﺕت ﺿﺮ ﻴﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺄﻧﻮﺍاﻉع ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺣﻔﻮﺭرﻱي‪  :‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭوﻥن ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻱي ﻭوﺍاﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ )ﻡم‪  .(47‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ ﺹص‪ 95‬ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﻟﻼﻃﻼﻉع ﻋ ﺗﻔﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﺣﻮﻝل ﺁآﻟﻴﺔ ﺳ ﺒ ﻮ‪.‬‬
‫‪  68‬ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪  ..‬ﻧﻈﺮﺓة ﻋﺎﻣﺔ‪  :‬ﺭرﻭو ﺮﺕت ﺑﺎ ﻮﻥن ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )ﻡم‪(48‬؛ ﺹص‪.95‬‬
‫‪   69‬ﻣﻦ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻋ ﺫذﻟﻚ‪  :‬ﺗﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﺍاﻟﺸﺒ ﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺼﻐ ﺓة ﺍاﳌﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﻤﻌﺎﺕت‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺷﺒ ﺎﺕت ﻻ ﻳﺨﻀﻊ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻈﻤ ﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ‪  .‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪  :‬ﺷﺒ ﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺼﻐ ﺓة ﺍاﳌﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﻤﻌﺎﺕت ﻳﻤﻜ ﺎ ﺍاﳌﺴﺎ ﻤﺔ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺮﻒ‪  ..‬ﺃأﺩدﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻴ ﻴﺎ‪  :‬ﺸﺎﺭرﻟﺰﻛ ﻭو ﻲ ﻭوﺁآﺭرﻥن ﺟﺎ ﻮ ﺴﻮﻥن )ﻡم‪(49‬؛ ﺹص‪  .1221-1208‬‬
‫‪528‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‪ ،‬ﻓﺠﺮﻱي‪  ‬ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺳﻌﺮﺿﺮ ﺒﺔ ﺍاﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍاﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮﺎﺀء ﻣﻦ )‪  (%16‬‬
‫ﺇإ )‪  70.(%12‬‬

‫ﺃأﻭوﻏﻨﺪﺍا‪  ‬‬
‫ﻴﻤﻨﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻭوﻏﻨﺪﻳﺔ ﻃﻮ ﻼ ﻋ‬

‫ﺳﻮﻕق ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺷﺮﻛﺔ‬

‫ﺣ ﻮﻣﻴﺔ ) ﻴﺌﺔ ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﻭوﻏﻨﺪﻳﺔ( ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﺃأﺩدﻯى ﺇإ ﺃأﺣﺪ ﺃأﺧﻔﺾ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻨﻔﺎﺫذ ﺇإ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻋ‬

‫ﺍا‬

‫ﺩدﻭوﻝل ﺟﻨﻮﺏب ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺮﺍاﺀء‬

‫ﻓﺮ ﻘﻴﺔ‪   .‬ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 1999‬ﺃأﻗﺪﻣﺖ‬

‫ﺇإﻋﺎﺩدﺓة ﻴ ﻠﺔ ﻗﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﻭوﺧ‬

‫ﺼﺘﻪﮫ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺷﺮ ﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬

‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﺘﻮﺯز ﻊ ﺍا ﺎﺻﺔ ﻭوﺍاﺟ ﺖ ﺍاﻟﺼﻌﻮ ﺎﺕت‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻷﺧﺺ ﻌﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﺎﺕت ﺍا ﻔﺎﻑف‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣ ﻥن‬

‫‪ 2005‬ﻭو‪ ، 2006‬ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺃأﺩدﺕت ﺇإ ﺍا ﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﺎ ﺍاﻟﺴﺪﻭوﺩد‪ ،‬ﻓﻨﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺸ ﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻟ ﺗﻔﻊ ﻣﻦ )‪  (%0.6‬ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺟﻤﺎ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻮﻃ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2006‬ﺇإ )‪   (%1.1‬ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 71.2011‬ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2012‬ﻭوﺍاﻓﻘﺖ‬

‫ﺍا‬

‫ﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻋ ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﻛﺒ ﺓة‬

‫ﺭرﺳﻮﻡم ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﻭوﺻﻠﺖ ﺇإ )‪  (%45‬ﻭوﺳﻄﻴﺎ؛‬

‫ﻭوﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻧﺪ ﻻﻉع ﻌﺾ ﺣﺘﺠﺎﺟﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺸﻌﺒﻴﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻋ ﺍاﺽض ﺍاﻟ ﳌﺎﻥن ﻋ‬

‫‪72‬‬

‫ﺬﺍا‬

‫ﺟﺮﺍاﺀء‪ 73‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺍاﺳﺘﻄﺎﻉع ﺃأﻥن ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻃﺮ ﻘﻪﮫ ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍاﻟﻔﻌ ‪  .‬ﻭو ﺤﺴﺐ ﺭرﺃأﻱي ﺻﻨﺪﻭوﻕق‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو ﻓﻘﺪ ﺎﻥن ﺬﺍا ﺟﺮﺍاﺀء ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱي ﻌﺾ ﺍا ﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺎﻧﺖ ﺿﺮﻭوﺭر ﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻨﺠﺎﺣﻪﮫ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻣ ﺎ‪   :‬ﺍاﺳ ﺍاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺍاﺻﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮﺓة ﺍاﺳﺘﻄﺎﻋﺖ ﺃأﻥن ﺸﺮﺡح ﻟﻠﻨﺎﺱس ﻛﻴﻒ ﺃأﻥن‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺗﺘﺠﻤﻊ‬

‫ﺃأﻳﺪﻱي ﻏﻨﻴﺎﺀء ﻭوﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﺼﻨﺎ‬

‫ﻭوﺃأﻥن ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺳﺘ ﻴﺢ‬

‫ﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﺃأﻥن ﻳﺤﺴﻦ ﻓﺮﺹص ﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩدﺓة ﻣﻨﻪﮫ ﻭوﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﺛﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻭو ﺪ؛ ﺃأﻣﺎ ﺳﺮ‬
‫ﺷﺪ ﻓﻘﺮﺍا ﻓﻘﺪ ﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﺤﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‪  .‬‬
‫‪  70‬ﺩدﺭرﺍاﺳﺎﺕت ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺣﻮﻝل ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫‪  71‬ﺍاﳌﺼﺪﺭرﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ؛ ﺹص‪.114‬‬
‫‪   72‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﻮﺍاﻗﺐ ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ ﻭوﻏﻨﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪   :2013/2012‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﺮﺍا ﺲ ﻭوﻭوﺗﺮ ﺎﻭوﺱس ﻮ ﺮﺯز‬
‫)ﻡم‪(50‬؛ ﺹص‪  .24‬‬
‫‪  73‬ﺃأﻭوﻏﻨﺪﺍا ﺗ ﺍاﺟﻊ ﻋﻦ ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‪  :‬ﻧﻴ ﻮﻻﺱس ﺑﺎﺭرﻮ )ﻡم‪  .(51‬‬
‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ )ﻡم‪(39‬؛ ﺹص‪.90‬‬

‫‪529‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﺭرﻭوﺱس ﺍاﳌﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩدﺓة ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺏب ﺍاﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭرﺓة‪  ‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﺍاﻟ ﻧﺎﻗﺸﻨﺎ ﺗﺠﺎﺭر ﺎ‬
‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﻳﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻌﻀ ﺎ ﻋﻦ ﻌﺾ‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﺄﺕت ﺇإﻟﻴﻪﮫ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺮﺍاﻣﺞ ﺻﻼﺡح‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺫذﻟﻚ ﻻ ﻳﻤﻨﻊ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍا ﺮﻭوﺝج ﻌﺪﺓة ﺩدﺭرﻭوﺱس ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺏب ﺍاﻟﻨﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺘﻔﻮ ﺾ ﻣﺘ ﻥن ﻣﻦ ﺷﻌﻮ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍا‬

‫ﺔ؛ ﻭوﺃأﻭوﻟ ﺎ‪  :‬ﺃأﻥن ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻨﻈﺮ ﺇإﻟ ﺎ ﺷﻌﻮ ﺎ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎ ‪  ‬ﺭر ﺎ‬

‫ﺟﺪﻳﺮﺓة ﺑﺎﻟﺜﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻜ ﺎ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺤﺼﻞ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﻘﻮﺓة ﺍاﻟﻼﺯزﻣﺔ ﻹﻃﻼﻕق ﻣﺎ ﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﻪﮫ ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬
‫ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﻻ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻌﺒﻴﺔ‪  .‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺪﺭرﺱس ﺍاﻟﺜﺎ ﻲ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻧﺘﻌﻠﻤﻪﮫ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺏب‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺟﻤﻴﻌ ﺎ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ‬

‫ﺿﺮﻭوﺭرﺓة ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ ﺃأﻭو ﺍاﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡم‬

‫ﳌﻮﺍاﺯزﻧﺔ ﺗﺄﺛ‬

‫ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍاﺀء ﺟﺎﺀءﺕت ﻋ ﺷ ﻞ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃأﻡم‬

‫ﻐﻴ ﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥن ﺍاﻟﻀﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺃأﻡم ﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﺃأﺷ ﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍاﳌﺴ ﺪﻑف ﺍاﳌﺤﺪﻭوﺩد‬

‫ﻤﺎ ﻭوﻧﻄﺎﻗﺎ؛ ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺃأﺧﺬﻧﺎ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺍا ﺎ‬

‫ﻢ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﻭوﻃﺒﻴﻌﺘﻪﮫ ﺍاﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬

‫ﻓﻼ ﻳﺒﺪﻭو ﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺿﺮ ﺒﺔ ﺍاﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺳﺘﻜﻔﻲ ﻟﻮﺣﺪ ﺎ ﻛﺂﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﺗﺤﻮﻝل ﺩدﻭوﻥن ﺇإﻏﻀﺎﺏب ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺱس‪  .‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺪﺭرﺱس ﺍاﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ‬

‫ﺃأﻥن ﺍاﻟﻼﺗﻮﺍاﺯزﻥن ﺍاﳌﺎ‬

‫ﻳﺒﺪﻭو ﻣﺤﻔﺰﺍا ﻗﻮ ﺎ ﻟﻺﺻﻼﺡح‪  .‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺪﺭرﺱس ﺍاﻟﺮﺍا ﻊ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺸ ﺇإﻟﻴﻪﮫ ﺍا ﺎﻻﺕت ﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺟﻤﻴﻌ ﺎ‬
‫ﺸ ﺇإ ﺃأﻥن ﺇإﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺎﻧﺖ ﺟﺰﺀءﺍا ﻣﻦ ﺣﺰﻡم ﺇإﺻﻼﺣﻴﺔ ﺃأﻛ‬

‫ﺪﻑف‬

‫ﺇإ ﺗﺤﺴ ﻥن ﺃأﺩدﺍاﺀء ﺃأﺳﻮﺍاﻕق ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ؛ ﻓﻔﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﺗﺮﺍاﻓﻘﺖ ﺇإﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﻣﻊ ﺇإﻋﺎﺩدﺓة ﺍاﻟ ﻴ ﻠﺔ ﻭوﺍا‬

‫ﺼﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻥن ﻟﺘﺤﺴﻦ ﺍاﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀءﺓة ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي‬

‫ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺑﻔﻀﻞ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺘﻐﻴ ﺍاﺕت ﺷﻤﻞ ﺩدﻭوﺭر‬

‫ﺗﻤﺘ ﻥن ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﻭوﺣﻤﺎﻳ ﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﻱي‬

‫ﺗﻘ ﻘﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒ ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻄﺮ ﻖ ﺇإ ﺍا ﻞ‪  ‬‬
‫ﻛﻴﻒ ﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﻣﺼﺮ ﺍاﳌ‬

‫ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺪﺭرﻭوﺱس ﺍاﻟ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻌﻠﻤ ﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺠﺎﺭرﺏب ﺩدﻭوﻝل ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ‬

‫‪520‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ؟ ﻓﻌ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ‬

‫ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﺬﻩ ﺍاﳌﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‪،‬‬

‫ﻳﺠﺪﺭر ﺑﺼﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﺃأﻥن ﻳ ﺘ ﻮﺍا ﺇإ ﻣﺎ ﻌﺎﻧﻴﻪﮫ ﺣ ﻮﻣ ﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻓﻘﺪﺍاﻥن‬

‫ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺛﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟﻘﺪﺭرﺓة ﺩدﺍاﺭر ﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇإ ﻭوﺟﻮﺩد ﺟ ﺎﺕت ﻣﺼ ﻴﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪﺓة‪  74.‬‬
‫ﻭوﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﻥن ﺻﺎ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﻳﻮﺍاﺟ ﻮﻥن ﻻﺋﺤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍا ﻴﺎﺭرﺍاﺕت‬
‫‪  ‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇإﻻ ﺃأﻥن ﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﻨﺎ‬

‫ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃأﻥن ﻳﺘﺼﻒ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺴﺎﻃﺔ؛ ﻭوﻻ‬

‫ﺑﺪ ﺃأﻥن ﺗ ﻮﻥن ﺧﻄﺘﻪﮫ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺟ ﺔ ﻟﻠﺴ ﺎﻥن ﺸ ﻞ ﻋﺎﻡم‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇإ ﺇإﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت‬
‫ﺗﻜﻤﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺿﺮﻭوﺭر ﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺴ ﻥن ﺃأﺩدﺍاﺀء ﺳﻮﺍاﻕق‬
‫ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ‪  .‬ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺎﻥن ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﻜﻼﻡم ﻳﺘﻤﺎ‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺸﻤﻠ ﺎ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬

‫ﺸ ﻞ ﻋﺎﻡم ﻣﻊ ﺳﺘ ﺘﺎﺟﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ ﺇإﻟ ﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﺭرﺍاﺳﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺣﻠﻠﺖ ﺍاﻟﺪﺭرﻭوﺱس ﺍاﳌﺴﺘﻘﺎﺓة ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻋ ﺍاﻣﺘﺪﺍاﺩد ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ‪ 75،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪﮫ ﻳﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻋ ﺎ ﺑﺄﻧﻪﮫ ﻳﺼﺮﺡح ﺸ ﻞ ﻭوﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺸ ﻠﺔ ﺍاﻟﺮﺋ ﺴﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﻌﺎ ﻲ ﻣ ﺎ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت‬

‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺑﺄﻥن‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ‬

‫ﺑﻤﻮﺛﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﻭوﺍاﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕت ﺑﺈﻣ ﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺟﻊ ﻋ ﺎ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ‪  76.‬‬
‫ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺎﻧﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﻣﺼﻤﻤﺔ ﻋ ﺍاﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡح‬

‫ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﳌﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍاﻟﺒ ﺌﺔ ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍا ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻼ ﺑﺪ ﺃأﻥن ﻳ ﻮﻥن ﺬﺍا ﺻﻼﺡح ﺳﺮ ﻌﺎ ﻭوﻏ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻟﻠ ﺍاﺟﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺃأﻥن ﻳﺤﺮﺹص ﻋ ﻗﻴﺎﻡم ﺍاﳌﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍا ﺪﻳﺪﺓة ﻟ ﺴﻌ ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‬
‫ﺑﺨﻠﻖ ﻣﺤﻔﺰﺍاﺕت ﻗﻮ ﺔ ﺗﺤﻮﻝل ﺩدﻭوﻥن ﺣﺪﻭوﺙث ﺃأﻱي ﺗﺮﺍاﺟﻊ‪   .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺇإﻥن ﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺳﻘﻔﺎ ﻣﺤﺪﺩدﺍا‬
‫‪  74‬ﻗﺎﺭرﻥن ﻣﻊ ﻣﺎ ﻭوﺭرﺩد ‪  :‬ﺩدﻟﻴﻞ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ‬
‫‪  75‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ ﻋ ﺳ ﻴﻞ ﺍاﳌﺜﺎﻝل‪  :‬‬
‫ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ )ﻡم‪  .(22‬‬
‫ﺩدﻟﻴﻞ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ ﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪)  ‬ﻡم‪  .(7‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮ‪   ..‬ﻧﺤﻮ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍاﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃأﻛ ﺗﺄﺛ ﺍا‪   ..‬ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻭوﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍا ﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪   :‬ﺍاﻟﺒﻨﻚ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو )ﻡم‪  .(52‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ‪  ..‬ﻣ ﻠﻒ ﻭوﻏ ﻣﻨﺼﻒ ﻭوﻣ ﺍاﻳﺪ‪  :‬ﺩدﻳﻔﻴﺪ ﻮﺩدﻱي ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )ﻡم‪  .(53‬‬
‫ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪  ..‬ﺩدﺭرﻭوﺱس ﻭوﺗﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت‪  :‬ﺻﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو )ﻡم‪.(54‬‬
‫‪   76‬ﺑ ّ ﻥن ﺑﻴ ﺑ ﺘ ﻲ )ﺧﺒ ﺍاﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻱي ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺟﻮﺭرﺝج ﻣﺎﺳﻮﻥن‪  (  ‬ﺑﺄﻥن ﻓﻘﺪﺍاﻥن ﺍاﳌﻮﺛﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺃأﺩدﻯى ﺍا ﺇإﺟ ﺎﺽض‬
‫ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﺭرﻭوﺳﻴﺎ ﺣﻘﺒﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻌﺪ ﺍاﻟﺸﻴﻮﻋﻴﺔ‪  .‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪  :‬ﺍاﳌﻮﺛﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭو ﻟ ﺍاﻡم ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﻓﻴﻴ ‪  :‬ﺑﻴ ﺑ ﺘ ﻲ )ﻡم‪(55‬؛ ﺹص‪  .275-247‬‬
‫ﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫‪521‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ )ﻡم‪(7‬؛ ﺹص‪.18-17‬‬

‫ﻟ ﺪ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺼﻞ ﺇإﻟﻴﻪﮫ ﺍا‬

‫ﻴﺌﺔ ﺍاﺳ ﺍاﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻌﻴﺪﺓة ﺍاﳌﺪﺓة ﻭوﺫذﺍاﺕت‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺪﺍاﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺸ ﻞ ﺗﺪﺭر‬

‫ﻭوﻣﺮﺣ ﻋ ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻮ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻨ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﻷﻥن ﺍاﻟﺘﻐﻴ ﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺒﻄﻴﺌﺔ‬

‫ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄ ﺎ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺆﺩدﻱي ﺇإ ﺍاﺿﻄﺮﺍاﺑﺎﺕت ﺃأﺻﻐﺮ‬

‫ﺑﺄ ﺎ ﺳﺘﻌﻤﻞ ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺎﻧﺖ ﺍاﻟﺸ ﻮﻙك ﺗﺤﻮﻡم ﺣﻮﻝل ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﻡم‬

‫ﺍا ﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﺮﺍا ﻦ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﺮ‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر‬

‫ﺑﻪﮫ‬

‫ﻣﺎ‬

‫ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت‪  .‬ﻭو ﻀﺎﻑف ﺇإ ﺫذﻟﻚ ﺃأﺧ ﺍا ﺃأﻧﻪﮫ ﻟ ﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻮﺍا‬

‫ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺎﻧﺖ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺗﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﺮﻏﻮ ﺔ )ﺑﻤﺎ ﻓ ﺎ‪  :‬ﺇإ ﺸﺎﺀء ﻭو ﺎﻻﺕت ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺨﻀﻊ‬
‫ﺸ ﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻻﺟ ﺎﺩدﺍاﺕت ﺍا‬
‫ﺿﻮﺀء ﻣﺎ ﻌﺎﻧﻴﻪﮫ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺁآﻟﻴﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌ‬

‫( ‪  ‬ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺇإﻧﺠﺎﺯز ﺎ ﺑﻨﺠﺎﺡح‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺿﺂﻟﺔ ﺍاﳌﻮﺛﻮﻗﻴﺔ‪  77.‬‬

‫ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺃأﺧﺬﻧﺎ ﻌ ﻥن ﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭر‬

‫ﻢ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻭوﺍا ﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉع‪ ،‬ﻓﺴ ﺒﺪﻭو ﻟﻨﺎ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺻﻼﺡح ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃأﻥن ﻳ ﺍاﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﺧﻄﺔ ﻌﻮ ﺾ‬
‫ﺗﺨﻔﻒ ﺗﺄﺛ ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻋ ﻓﻘﺮﺍاﺀء ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﻥن‪ 78.‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﻣﺞ ﺳ ﺪﺍاﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍا ﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺮﻭوﺍاﺗﺐ ﺍاﻟﺘﻘﺎﻋﺪﻳﺔ ﻭوﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﳌﺸﺮﻭوﻋﺎﺕت ﺳ ﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻭوﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺃأﺷﺒﻪﮫ ﻟ ﺴﺖ ﺇإﻻ ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت ﺿ ﻴﻠﺔ ﺳﻮﺍاﺀء ﺎﻥن ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤ ﺎ ﺸ ﻞ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ﺃأﻡم ﺴ ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺴ ﺐ ﻏﻴﺎﺏب ﺍاﻟﺘﻐﻄﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﻨﻈﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﺳﺮ ﺍاﻟﻔﻘ ﺓة‪ 79،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺇإﻥن ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﻔﺘﻘﺮ ﺇإ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻘﺪﺭرﺓة ﺩدﺍاﺭر ﺔ ﺍاﻟﻼﺯزﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍاﻟﺘﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت ﺍا ﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎ )ﺑﻤﺎ‬

‫ﺫذﻟﻚ‪  :‬‬

‫ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻃﺮﺍاﻑف ﺍاﻟﺮﺍاﺑﺤﺔ ﻭوﺍا ﺎﺳﺮﺓة ﺴ ﺒﻪﮫ(‪ ،‬ﻭوﻻﺳ ﺪﺍاﻑف ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺷﺪ ﻓﻘﺮﺍا ﺑﺎﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫‪   77‬ﻌﺘ ﻓﺸﻞ ﻧﻴﺠ ﻳﺎ ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﻟﺪ ﺎ ﺑﻤﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﺜﺎﻝل ﺻﺎﺭرﺥخ ﻋ ﺇإﻣ ﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﻗﻒ ﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺇإﻻ‬
‫ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺍاﻧﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯى ﺛﻘﺔ ﺍاﻟﺸﻌﺐ ﺑﺎ ﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﺣﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺱس ﺇإﻟ ﺎ ﺑﺄ ﺎ ﻻ ﺘﻢ ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﻔﺴ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺄ ﺎ ﺗ ﺐ ﻣﻤﺘﻠ ﺎ ﻢ‪   .‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪   :‬ﺩدﻟﻴﻞ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩد ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎ ﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ )ﻡم‪(7‬؛‬
‫ﺹص‪.26-25‬‬
‫‪78‬‬
‫‪  ‬ﻳﻘﺪﻡم ﺍا ﺍاﺀء ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﻮﻥن ﺍاﳌﺮﻛﺰ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي ﻟﻠﺪﺭرﺍاﺳﺎﺕت ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻨﺎﺕت ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﺗﻮﺍاﺯزﻧﻴﺔ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻼﻑف ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻟ ﺴﺎﺏب ﺣﻮﻝل ﺗﺄﺛ ﺍاﺕت ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻋ ﺍاﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯى ﺍاﳌﻌ‬
‫ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪  :‬ﺗﺄﺛ ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺼﺮ‪  :‬ﺳ ﺃأﺑﻮ ﺍاﻟﻌﻴﻨ ﻥن ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )ﻡم‪.(56‬‬
‫‪   79‬ﺍاﺳ ﺪﺍاﻑف ‪  ‬ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮﺍاﺀء ‪    ‬ﻣﺼﺮ‪   ..‬ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ‪  ‬ﻣﻨﺤ ‪  ‬ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ‪  ‬ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ‪  ‬ﺍاﻟ ﺸﻐﻴﻞ ‪   :(ROC)  ‬ﻣﺎﺟﺪ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥن‬
‫ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )ﻡم‪(57‬؛ ﺹص‪  .3‬‬
‫‪522‬‬

‫ﺇإﻥن ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺷﺪ ﻓﻘﺮﺍا ﺭر ﻤﺎ ﻻ ﻳﻤﺜﻞ ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀء ﺎﻓﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌﻘﺎﻭوﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺸﻌﺒﻴﺔ ﺿﺪ ﺻﻼﺡح‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻣﻘﺎﻭوﻣﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺄ ﻲ ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺮﺍاﺋﺢ‬
‫ﺍاﳌﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي ﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪ ﺩدﻭوﻥن ﺍاﺳﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕق ﻣﻦ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ؛ ﻭوﻟ ﺬﺍا ﻓﺈﻥن‬

‫ﺃأﻏ‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﻌﻮ ﺾ ﺷﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺩدﺧﻞ ﺃأﺧﺮﻯى ﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻀﻄﺮ ﺇإ‬

‫ﻐﺮﺽض ﺍا ﺼﻮﻝل ﻋ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺃأﻭوﺳﻊ ﺑﻄﺮ ﻘﺔ ﺧﻔﻴﺔ‪  .‬ﻭوﻻ ﺑﺪ ﻟ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺎﻳﺔ ﺍاﳌﻄﺎﻑف ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺸ ﻠﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﻭوﻣﺔ ﺻﻼﺡح ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﺒﺪ ﺎ ﺍا‬

‫ﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡم ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬

‫ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺸ ﻞ ﻛﺒ‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ‪  .‬‬

‫ﻛﺘﻤﺎﻝل‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟﺴﺮﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺴﺎﻃﺔ‪  ‬‬
‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻮﻝل ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﺜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃأﻥن ﻌﻤﻞ‬
‫ﻋ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘ ﺎ ﺣ ﻮﻣﺎﺕت ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﻭو ﻟ ﺍاﻡم ﺑﺘﺤﺴ ﻥن ﺍاﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ؛ ﻟﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺆﺳﻒ ﻟﻪﮫ ﺃأﻥن ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺗﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﻈﺮﻭوﻑف؛ ﻓﺎ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺟﻨ‬
‫ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜ ﺎ ﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭر ﺣ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﻌﺎ ﻲ ﺍاﺳﺘ ﺍاﻓﺎ ﺳﺮ ﻌﺎ ﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃ ﺎ ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺴ ﺐ ﺍا ﺳﺘ ﺍاﺩد ﺎ ﳌﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺋﻴﺔ ﻭوﺍاﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺸﻤﻠ ﺎ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺃأﺭرﺍاﺩدﺕت ﺍا‬

‫ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺸ ﻠﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﻓﻼﺱس ﻓﻴﺠﺐ ﻋﻠ ﺎ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺣ ﻭوﺇإﻥن ﺎﻥن ﺫذﻟﻚ ﻌ ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬

‫ﻇﺮﻭوﻑف ﻏ‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻭوﻣﻦ ﺳﺒﻞ ﺍا ﻴﻠﻮﻟﺔ ﺩدﻭوﻥن ﺿﻄﺮﺍاﺭرﺇإ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺟﻊ ﻋﻦ ‪  ‬ﺻﻼﺡح‪  :‬ﺃأﻥن ﺗﻘﻮﻡم ﺍا‬
‫ﺑ ﻢ ﻧﻔﺴ ﺎ ﻋﻦ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺍاﻟﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻦ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﻠﻴﺎ ﻭوﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺎ ﺎ ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺳﻮﺍاﻕق ﺫذﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻷﺳﻮﺍاﻕق ﺍا ﺎﺻﺔ ﺍاﳌﺘ ﻨﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟﻜﻔﻮﺀءﺓة ﻳﻤﻜ ﺎ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺤﺼﻞ ﻋ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺸﻌﺒﻴﺔ ﻭوﺃأﻥن ﺗﺨﻠﻖ ﺷﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺗﺠﺪ ﻣﺼ‬

‫ﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻓﺎﻉع ﻋﻦ ﺍاﻟﻮﺍاﻗﻊ ﺍا ﺪﻳﺪ‪  .‬ﻭوﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ‬

‫ﺳﺘﻌﺎﺿﺔ ﺑﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺓة ﺍا ﻤﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬
‫ﺃأﻥن ﺸ ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﻜﺜ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎ ﺔ‬
‫ُ‬
‫ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﻤﺎ ﻻ ﺷﻚ ﻓﻴﻪﮫ ﺃأﻥن ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﺪﺭر ﺠﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻃ ِّﺒﻘﺖ ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﻕق‬
‫ﻭوﺳﻂ ﻭوﺷﻤﺎﻝل ﺃأﻓﺮ ﻘﻴﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻣﻨ ﺖ ﺟﻤﻴﻌ ﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﺸﻞ ﺍاﻟﺬﺭر ﻊ‪   .‬ﻭوﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﻥن‬
‫‪523‬‬

‫ﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺘﺪﺭر‬

‫ﻗﺪ ﻳﻨ ‪ ،‬ﻋ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺪﺍاﻗﻴﺔ ﻟ ﺍاﻡم ﺑﻤﺴﺎﺭرﺇإﺻﻼ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻨ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍاﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱي‪،‬‬

‫ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺗﻤﺘﻠﻚ‬

‫ﻳﺪﻭوﻡم ﻋﺪﺓة ﺳﻨﻮﺍاﺕت‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺬﺍا ﻣﺮ ﻟ ﺲ ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬

‫ﺑﻪﮫ ﺍا ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﺍاﳌﺼ ﺍاﻟﻘﺎﺩدﻡم ﻳﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪﮫ ﺃأﻥن ﻳﺰ ﺪ ﺛﻤﻦ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺟﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺍا ﺪ ﺸ ﻞ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺼﻮﺩد ﻣﻦ ﻗﺪﺭرﺓة ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي ﻋ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺬﺍا ﻗﺪ ﻌ‬
‫ﺇإﻏﻼﻕق ﺍاﳌ ﺎﺗﺐ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﻨﺨﺮﻃﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﻤﺎ ﻓ ﺎ‪  :‬ﺍاﻟ ﻴﺌﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻤﻮ ﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﻏﻼﻕق ﺃأﻗﺴﺎﻡم ﻭوﺯزﺍاﺭرﺓة ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻝل ﺍاﳌﺴﺆﻭوﻟﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ؛ ﻭو ﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻮﻝل‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﺜﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺄﻥن ﺬﺍا ﺻﻼﺡح ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻤﻪﮫ‬
‫ﻛﺠﺰﺀء ﻣﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺃأﻭوﺳﻊ ﻹﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﻀﻮﺍاﺑﻂ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﻇﻤﺔ ﻷﺳﻮﺍاﻕق ﺍاﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻮ ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻗﺪ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﻭوﺯزﺍاﺭرﺓة ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻝل ﺸ ﻞ ﺎﻣﻞ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﻣﺆﺧﺮﺍا ﺑﺎ ﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﺪﺭرﺓة ﻋ ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﻭوﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬

‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﻣﻌﻘﺪﺓة‪ ،‬ﻭوﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺃأﺻﺒﺢ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻮﺍاﺟﺐ ﻋ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺃأﻥن ﺗ ﺘﻌﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺍا ﻄﻂ‬
‫ﺫذﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻘﻴﺪ ﺍاﻟﺸﺪﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍاﺀء ﺎﻥن ﺫذﻟﻚ ﺍاﻟ ﺴﻌ ﺃأﻡم ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ؛ ﱡ‬
‫ﻓﺘﻌﺪﺩد ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭرﺃأﻱي‬
‫ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻮ ﺃأﻣﺮ ﻋﺎﺟﺰ ﻋﻦ ﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر ﻷﻧﻪﮫ ﻳﺨﻠﻖ ﻓﺮﺻﺎ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﻊ ﺍاﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩد ‪ ،‬ﺃأﻣﺎ ﺧﻄﻂ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ ﺍاﳌﻌﻘﺪﺓة ﺍاﻟ ﺗﺤﺎﻭوﻝل ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪﮫ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻧﺤﻮ ﺳﺮ ﺍاﻟﻔﻘ ﺓة ﺃأﻭو ﻭوﺿﻊ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻭوﻁط ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻓﺈ ﺎ ﺗﻔ ﺽض ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻗﺎﺩدﺭرﺓة ﻋ ﺗﻤﻴ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺴﺘﺤﻘﺔ ﻭوﻣﺮﺍاﻗﺒ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻛ ﺓة ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺏب ﺍاﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬

‫ﺳﺮ‬

‫ﺃأﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ‬

‫ﺳﺮ ﺍاﻟﻔﻘ ﺓة‪ ،‬ﺑﻤﺎ ﻓ ﺎ‪   :‬ﺳ ﺪﺍاﻑف ﺍا ﻐﺮﺍا ﻭو ﻌﻮ ﻀﺎﺕت ﺭرﺳﻮﻡم ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء ﻭوﻭو ﺎﻻﺕت‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ‪ 80،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺏب ﻟﻢ ﺗﺠﺪ ﻃﺮ ﻘ ﺎ ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋ ﻧﻄﺎﻕق ﻭوﺍاﺳﻊ‪  .‬‬

‫‪   80‬ﻣﺼﺮ‪  ..‬ﻧﺤﻮ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍاﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃأﻛ ﺗﺄﺛ ﺍا‪  ..‬ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو )ﻡم‪(58‬؛ ﺹص‪  .15‬‬
‫ﻭوﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ‪   :‬ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻼﻧﻴﺔ‪   ..‬ﺍاﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﺳ ﺪﺍاﻑف ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮ‪  :‬ﺃأﺧ ﺃأﺣﻤﺪ ﻭو ﻮﺍاﺭرﺙث ﺑﻮﺍاﺯز )ﻡم‪(59‬؛ ﺹص‪  .540-519‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻭوﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍا ﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪  :‬ﺍاﻟﺒﻨﻚ‬

‫‪524‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﻞ ﻣﺎ ﺃأﻭوﺭرﺩدﻧﺎﻩ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ ﺣﻮﻝل ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻗﺪ ﺗﻀﻤﻨﺖ ﻌﺾ ﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺔ ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﺗ ﺍاﻭوﺡح ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﻣﺤﺪﻭوﺩد‬

‫ﺴ ﺪﻑف ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺷﺪ ﻓﻘﺮﺍا ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‪ ،‬ﺇإ ﻐﻴ ﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥن ﺍاﻟﻀﺮ ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻭو ﺒﺪﻭو ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻌﻘﻼ ﻲ ﻓ ﺍاﺽض ﺑﺄﻧﻪﮫ ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﻛﻨﺎ ﻧﺮ ﺪ ﻗﺒﻮﻻ ﺷﻌﺒﻴﺎ ﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻓﻼ ﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﻥن ﻳ ﺍاﻓﻖ ﺫذﻟﻚ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻘﻮ ﺔ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍا ﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺮﺍا ﻨﺔ‪ 81،‬ﺃأﻭو ﺑﺰ ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺍاﳌ ﺪﺩدﺓة‪ 82.‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺇإﻥن ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ ﺍاﻟﻮﺍاﺳﻌﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺸ ﻞ ﻋﻨﺼﺮﺍا ﻻ ﻏ ﻋﻨﻪﮫ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺪﺍاﻗﻴﺔ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬

‫ﺸ ﺃأﺣﺪ ﺗﻘﺎﺭر ﺮ ﺍاﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو ﺇإ ﺃأﻥن ﺍاﻟ ﺸﺎﺭرﻙك ﺍاﻟﻮﺍاﺳﻊ‬

‫ﺭر ﺎﺡح "ﻳﺠﻠﺐ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬

‫ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﺍا ﺪﻳﺪﺓة ﻭو ﺨﻠﻖ ﺣﺎﺟﺰﺍا ﻗﻮ ﺎ ﺿﺪ ﺃأﻱي ﻣﺤﺎﻭوﻟﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠ ﺍاﺟﻊ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺻﻼﺡح"‪  83.‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻮﻓﻮﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪  ‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﺎﺕت ﻏ‬
‫ﺍاﳌﺴ ﺪﻓﺔ‪  ‬‬

‫‪  %90‬‬
‫‪  %70‬‬
‫‪  %50‬‬
‫‪  %30‬‬

‫‪  75‬‬
‫‪  224‬‬
‫‪  373‬‬
‫‪  522‬‬

‫ﺍا ﻤﺲ ﺍاﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
‫ﺗﺮﺗ ﺐ ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮ‪  ‬‬
‫‪  124‬‬
‫‪  373‬‬
‫‪  622‬‬
‫‪  871‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺴ ﺪﻓﺔ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺍا ﻤﺲ ﻭوﻝل‬
‫ﺍا ﻤﺲ ﺍاﻟﺜﺎ ﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺮﺗ ﺐ ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺗﺮﺗ ﺐ ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮ‪  ‬‬
‫‪  373‬‬
‫‪  187‬‬
‫‪  1120‬‬
‫‪  560‬‬
‫‪  1866‬‬
‫‪  933‬‬
‫‪  2612‬‬
‫‪  1306‬‬

‫‪   81‬ﻳﺘﺤﻤﻞ )ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍاﻟﺘ ﺎﻓﻞ ﺟﺘﻤﺎ (‪  ‬ﻣﺼﺮ ﺍاﳌﺴﺆﻭوﻟﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺮﺋ ﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻸﺳﺮ ﺷﺪ ﻓﻘﺮﺍا ﺧﺎﺭرﺝج ﺇإﻃﺎﺭرﺍاﻟﻘﻮﺓة ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫‪  82‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ ﻋ ﺳ ﻴﻞ ﺍاﳌﺜﺎﻝل‪  :‬ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ‪  ‬ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ )ﻡم‪.(22‬‬
‫‪   83‬ﻟ ﺍاﻡم ﺍاﳌﻮﺛﻮﻕق ﻭوﺍاﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡح ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﳌﺸﺮﻭوﻋﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪   :‬ﺧﻮﺳﻴﻪﮫ ﺇإﺩدﻏﺎﺭرﺩدﻭو ﺎﻣﺒﻮﺱس ﻭو ﺎﺩدﻱي‬
‫ﺃأﺻﻔ ﺎ ﻲ )ﻡم‪(60‬؛ ﺹص‪  .228‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺍاﳌﻌﻮﻧﺎﺕت ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫‪525‬‬

‫ﺍا ﺪﻭوﻝل )‪   :(3‬ﺍاﻟﻮﻓﻮﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﺑﻔﻀﻞ ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺴﻨﻮ ﺔ ﺍاﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻟ ﻞ ﺃأﺳﺮﺓة )ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻭوﻻﺭر ﻣﺮ ﻲ(‪  84.‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﺪﻡم ﺍا ﺪﻭوﻝل )‪   (3‬ﻌﺾ ﺍا ﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕت ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻴﺎﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﻋ ﺃأﺳﺎﺱس ﺍاﻓ ﺍاﺿﺎﺕت ﻣﺘﺤﻔﻈﺔ؛‬

‫ﻭو ﺬﻩ ﺍا ﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕت ﺗﻘﻮﻡم ﻋ ﻣﺒﺪﺃأ ﺴﻴﻂ ﻮ ﺇإﺩدﺧﺎﻝل ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍاﻟﻮﻓﻮﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﻗﺪ ﺗ ﺘﺞ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺋﻴﺔ ﻭوﺍاﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﺴﺐ ﻣﺎ ﺟﺎﺀءﺕت ﺑﻪﮫ ﺃأﺭرﻗﺎﻡم ﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻧﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺔ ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪ (2013/2012‬ﻣﻊ ﻧ ﺒﺎﻩ ﺇإ ﺃأﻥن ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻳﺮ‬
‫ﺑﻜﺜ ‪،‬‬

‫ﺑﺄﻧﻪﮫ ﺃأﻛ‬

‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏب ﺍا ﻴﺎﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺍاﳌﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﺾ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‪  .‬ﻓﺈﺫذﺍا ﺎﻧﺖ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻏ ﻣﺸﺮﻭوﻃﺔ ﻭوﻛﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﻏﺐ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍاﻡم )‪   (%50‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻮﻓﻮﺭرﺍاﺕت ﻓﺤﻴ ﺎ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻸﺳﺮﺓة‬
‫ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﺍاﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺤﺼﻞ ﻋ )‪ 373‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر(‪  ‬ﺳﻨﻮ ﺎ‪  .‬ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﻛﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﻏﺐ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮﻓ ﺃأﻛ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﺃأﻗﻞ‪ ،‬ﺃأﻱي‪ 224)   :‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر( ‪  ‬ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﻛﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﻏﺐ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍاﻡم‬
‫)‪  (%30‬ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌﻮﺍاﺭرﺩد ﺍاﳌﻮﻓﺮﺓة‬
‫ﺑﺄﻥن ﺍاﳌﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﻏ‬

‫ﻌﻮ ﺾ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‪  .‬ﻭو ﻤﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﻘﻮﻝل ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﺒﺪﺃأ‬

‫ﺳ ﺪﺍاﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃأﻥن ﺗ ﻮﻥن ﺳ ﻠﺔ ﺍاﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬

‫ﺴ ﻴﺎ ﺑﻔﻀﻞ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻤﺘﻠﻜﻪﮫ ﻣﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺇإﻟﻜ ﻭوﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﻮ ﺔ‪  85.‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﻣﺎ ﺃأﻭوﺭرﺩدﻧﺎﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕت ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ‪ ،‬ﺸ ﻞ ﻋﺎﻡم‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ‬
‫ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻄﺒﻘ ﺎ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﺧﺮﻯى؛ ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻞ )ﻳﺼﻞ ﻣﻌﺪﻝل‬
‫‪   84‬ﺗﻢ ﺇإﻋﺪﺍاﺩد ﺍا ﺪﻭوﻝل ﻭوﻓﻖ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺎﺗﺐ ﻭو ﺎﻻﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﺑﺄﺭرﻗﺎﻡم ﻭوﺯزﺍاﺭرﺓة ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﺔ )‪،(2012‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮ )‪ ،(2012‬ﻭوﺩدﻟﻴﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ )‪   (2013‬ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﻌﺪﻩ ﻭو ﺎﻟﺔ ﺳﺘﺨﺒﺎﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺍاﳌﺮﻛﺰ ﺔ‬
‫ﻭوﺍاﳌ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎ ﻲ ﺍاﻟﺼ‬
‫ﻣﺮ ﻜﻴﺔ )ﻡم‪  .(8‬‬
‫‪   85‬ﺇإﻋﺎﺩدﺓة ﺍاﺑﺘ ﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﺼﺮ )ﻡم‪   .(33‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻭوﺭرﺩد ﻓﻴﻪﮫ ﺍاﻗ ﺍاﺡح ﻮ ﻲ ﻭو ﺴﺖ‬
‫)‪   (Johnny West‬ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺃأﻭو ﻦ ﺃأﻭو ﻞ )‪   (Open Oil‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍاﻡم ﺷﺒ ﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺎﺗﻒ ﺍاﳌﺤﻤﻮﻝل ﻛﺸ ﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﺷ ﺎﻝل‬
‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻮ ﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﻋ ﺃأﺳﺎﺱس ﺗﺠﺎﺭرﺏب ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﻓﻘﺮ ﻛ ﺎﻳ ﻭوﻛﻴ ﻴﺎ؛ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻘ ﺏب ﻣﻌﺪﻝل ﺍاﻟﻨﻔﺎﺫذ ﺇإ‬
‫ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﻣﻦ )‪   (%100‬ﻣﺼﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈ ﺎ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻼ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎ ﺃأﻱي ﻗﻀﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻤﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺍاﻟ ﻮ ﺔ‪  .‬ﻭو ﻀﻴﻒ ﻭو ﺴﺖ ﺇإ ﺍاﻗ ﺍاﺣﻪﮫ ﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺗﺪﺭر ﺠﻴﺔ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻡم ﺑﺎﻟ ﺍاﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﻏ‬
‫ﺍاﺳ ﺪﺍاﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ﺧﻼﻝل ﻣﺪﺓة ﺗﺰ ﺪ ﻋ ﺧﻤﺲ ﺳﻨﻮﺍاﺕت‪  .‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﳌﻘﺎﺭرﺔ ﻌﺎ ﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸ ﻠﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺃأ ﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺠﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﻞ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺟﻊ ﻋﻦ ﺻﻼﺡح‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﺇإﺷﺎﺭرﺓة ﺗﺪﻝل ﻋ ﺍاﻓﺘﻘﺎﺭر ﻟ ﺍاﻡم ﺑﺎﻹﺻﻼﺡح ﺇإ ﺍاﳌﺼﺪﺍاﻗﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪526‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍاﻟﻔﺮﺩدﻱي ﻓ ﺎ ﺇإ ﺣﻮﺍا ﺿﻌﻔﻲ ﻣﺜﻴﻠﻪﮫ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ(‪  ‬ﻭوﺻﻞ ﻣﻘﺪﺍاﺭر ﺍاﳌﻨﺤﺔ ﺍاﻟﺸ ﺮ ﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻘﺪﻣ ﺎ ﺧﻄﺔ )ﺑﻮﻟﺴﺎ ﻓﺎﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎ( ‪  ‬ﺇإ )‪ 31‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر = ‪ 70  ‬ﺭر ﺎﻝل ﺑﺮﺍاﺯز (‪ 86.‬ﻭو‬
‫ﺗﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕت ﺍاﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍاﻟﻔﺮﺩدﻱي ﻓ ﺎ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺜﻴﻼ ﺎ‬

‫)ﺍاﻟ‬

‫ﺭرﺩدﻥن‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ( ‪  ‬ﻳﻘﺪﻡم ﺻﻨﺪﻭوﻕق‬

‫ﺍاﳌﻌﻮﻧﺔ ﺍاﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ )‪  (NAF‬ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﺷ ﺮ ﺔ ﺗ ﺍاﻭوﺡح ﺑ ﻥن )‪ 254-56‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر =‪180-40  ‬‬
‫ﺩدﻳﻨﺎﺭر ﺃأﺭرﺩد ﻲ(‪ 87.‬ﻭو ﺍاﻟﻴﻤﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭو‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﺩدﻭوﻟﺔ ﻌﺎ ﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮ ﻋ ﻧﺤﻮ ﺃأﺷﺪ ﺑﻜﺜ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺪﻡم‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﺍاﺳ ﺪﺍاﻓﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﻘﺪﺍاﺭر )‪ 20‬ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر =‪ 4,000  ‬ﺭر ﺎﻝل ﻳﻤ (‪  88.‬‬
‫ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺗﻤﻜﻨﺖ ﻣﺼﺮ‬

‫ﺎﻳﺔ ﺍاﳌﻄﺎﻑف ﻣﻦ ﺗﺄﺳ ﺲ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺭرﺋ ﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻴ ﺑ ﻥن‬

‫ﺳﺮﻋ ﺃأﺳﺎﺱس ﺍاﻟ ﻭوﺓة‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺣﻴ ﺎ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻭوﻓﻮﺭرﺍاﺕت ﻛﺒ ﺓة ﻣﻊ ‪  ‬ﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ‬
‫ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﺴ ﺪﻑف ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺷﺪ ﻓﻘﺮﺍا ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن‪   .‬ﻓﺈﺫذﺍا ﺍاﻗﺘﺼﺮﺕت ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﻋ‬

‫ﺧﻤﺎﺱس ﺍاﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﺷﺪ ﻓﻘﺮﺍا ﻣﻦ ﺳﺮﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍاﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍاﻡم )‪  (%50‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻮﻓﻮﺭرﺍاﺕت ﻟ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﺎ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻸﺳﺮﺓة ﺍاﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺤﺼﻞ ﻋ )‪622‬‬
‫ﺩدﻭوﻻﺭر(‪  .‬ﺇإﻥن ﺬﻩ ﺧﻤﺎﺱس ﺍاﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن ﺸ ﻞ ﺃأﻏﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻣﻦ ﺷﺄ ﺎ ﺃأﻥن‬
‫ﺗﻤﻴﻞ ﺇإ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺻﻼﺡح؛ ﻭو ﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻺﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﺃأﻥن ﺴﻠﻚ ﻣﺴﺎﺭرﺍا ﻋﻘﻼﻧﻴﺎ‬
‫ﺃأﺩدﺍا ﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺍاﻟﺒﺪﺀء ﺑﻤﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﻏ ﺍاﺳ ﺪﺍاﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺛﻢ ﺗﺒﺪﺃأ ﺬﻩ ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝل ﺇإ ﺍاﺳ ﺪﺍاﻓﻴﺔ ﺧﻼﻝل )‪  (5-3‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍاﺕت‪ ،‬ﺛﻢ ﺴﺘﻌﺎﺽض ﻋ ﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟ ﺎﻳﺔ ﺑﻤﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺗﺤﻘﻘﻴﺔ ﺴ ﺪﻑف ﺳﺮﺍاﻟﻔﻘ ﺓة ﻓﻘﻂ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﻜﻤﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﺍاﳌﻮﺍاﻃﻦ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﺩدﻱي ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬

‫ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭرﻩ ﺃأﻣﺮﺍا ﻳﺮﻏﺐ ﺑﻪﮫ ﻛﺈﺟﺮﺍاﺀء ﻳﺤﻤﻴﻪﮫ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕت ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬

‫)ﻡم‪.(61‬‬

‫‪  86‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ ﺍاﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ ﺍاﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺍاﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻜ ﻭو ﻲ ﻟﻮﺯزﺍاﺭرﺓة ﺍاﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫‪87‬‬

‫‪  ‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ ﺍاﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ ﺍاﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻜ ﻭو ﻲ ﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ )ﻡم‪.(62‬‬
‫‪   88‬ﺗﺤﻮ ﻞ ﺃأﺳﻠﻮﺏب ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ‪   ..‬ﺻﻨﺪﻭوﻕق ﺍاﻟﺮﻋﺎﻳﺔ ﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﻴﻤﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭر ﺍاﻧﺘﻔﺎ‬
‫ﻭوﺍاﺟﺘﻤﺎ ‪  :‬ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻘﺎﺵش )ﻡم‪(63‬؛ ﺹص‪.32‬‬
‫‪527‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﺸ ﻞ ﺟﺰﺀءﺍا ﻣﻦ ﺣﺰﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺗﺠﻌﻞ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬

‫ﺍا‬

‫ﺃأﻗﻞ ﻣﻼﺀءﻣﺔ ﻹﻣ ﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﻮﺍاﻃﻦ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺠﻌﻞ ﺳﻠﺴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻭو ﺪ ﺎ ﺫذﺍاﺕت ﻣﻮﺛﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺃأﻗﻞ؛‬
‫ﻭوﻋ ﺳ ﻴﻞ ﺍاﳌﺜﺎﻝل‪   :‬ﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﻥن ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد ﺗﺘﻐ ﻭوﻓﻖ ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺻﻌﻮ ﺔ ﻛﺒ ﺓة ﺗﻜﺘﻨﻒ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻀ ﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺬﺍا ﻌ ﺑﺄﻥن ﺍاﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽض‬
‫ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟ ﻳﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌ ﺎ ﺍاﳌﺴ ﻠﻚ‬

‫ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ‪  ‬ﻻ ﻳ ﺟﻢ ﺇإ ﺍاﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽض‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي‪ 89،‬ﻓﺤ ﻣﻊ ﺍاﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽض ﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‬
‫ﻢ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺘ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﻋﻦ )‪ ، (%10‬ﻭو ﺬﺍا ﺸ ﺇإ ﻭوﺟﻮﺩد ﻋﺎﻣﻠ ﻥن ﻳﺠﺐ ﻋ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت‬
‫ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 2008‬ﻟﻢ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻣﻌﺪﻝل‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﺃأﻥن ﻳﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﻮﺍا ﻣﻌ ﻤﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﻭوﻉع‬

‫ﺻﺎ‬

‫ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻤﺎ‪  :‬‬
‫ﻢ‪  ‬‬

‫‪  .1‬ﺍاﻟﺘ‬

‫ﺑﻤﺎ ﺃأﻥن ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﻋ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺍاﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩد ﺸ ﻞ ﺟﺰﺀءﺍا ﻛﺒ ﺍا ﻣﻦ ﻧﻔﺎﻕق ﺳ ﻼ ﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺃأﻱي ﻐﻴ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻑف ﺍاﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱي ﺑﺈﺟﺮﺍاﺀء ﻣﻮﺛﻮﻕق ﳌ ﺎﻓﺤﺔ ﺍاﻟﺘ‬
‫ﺑﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺏب ﺍاﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝل ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻱي‬
‫ﻟﻸﺳﻌﺎﺭر‬
‫ﻟﻸﺳﻌﺎﺭر‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺘ‬

‫ﻢ؛ ﻭو ﻤﻜﻦ ﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﳌﺠﺎﻝل‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﺍاﻟﺸﻴﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃأﺩدﻯى ﺍاﻟﺘﺤﺮ ﺮ ﺍاﻟﻜﺒ‬

‫ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﺇإ ﺿﻐﻮﻁط ﺗ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺃأﺟﻞ ﺍاﻟﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃأﻥن ﻳ ﺍاﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻗﻴﺎﻡم‬

‫ﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻗﺪ ﺗﺮﺍاﻭوﺡح ﺃأﺩدﺍاﺀء ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬

‫ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺼﻌﻮ ﺎﺕت‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺷ ﺮ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻠﺖ ﺍاﻟﺘﺤﺮ ﺮ ﺷﺒﻪﮫ ﺍاﻟﻜ‬

‫ﺸﻴ ﻮﺳﻠﻮﻓﺎﻛﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻡم ‪ 1991‬ﺍاﺳﺘﻄﺎﻉع ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺃأﻥن ﻳﺤﺘﻮﻱي ﺿﻐﻮﻁط‬

‫ﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭوﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﻨﻀﺒﻄﺔ‪  90.‬‬

‫‪  89‬ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﺼﺮ )ﻡم‪(31‬؛ ﺹص‪  .7‬‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﻮﻣﻲ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺘﻮﺍاﺯزﻧﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺩدﻭوﻝل ﺟﻨﻮﺏب ﺍاﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪  :‬ﺭرﻭوﻧﺎﻟﺪ ﺃأﻟ ﺯز ﻭوﻣﺎﺭرﻏﺎ ﺑﻴ ﺯز )ﻡم‪  .(64‬‬
‫‪  90‬ﺍاﻟﺘ ﻢ ﻳﻮﻏﺴﻼﻓﻴﺎ ‪  :1991-1985‬ﺯزﺩدﻳ ﻴﻚ ﺩدﺭرﺍاﺑﻴﻚ ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )ﻡم‪.(65‬‬
‫‪528‬‬

‫‪  .2‬ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺓة ﻭوﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﻕق‪    ‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﺻﻌﻮ ﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺒ ﻥن ﻣﻦ ﺃأﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‬
‫ﻇﺎ ﺮﺓة ﺗ ﺍاﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﺍاﻟﺒ ﺌﺔ ﺍاﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻔﺘﻘﺮ ﺇإ ﺍاﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺲ؛ ﻓﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﺸ ﻞ ﻣﻔﺮﻁط‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﺘﻀﺎﻓﺮ ﻣﻊ ﻋﻮﺍاﻣﻞ ﺃأﺧﺮﻯى‬

‫ﻓﻴ ﺴ ﺐ ﺑﻔﻘﺪﺍاﻥن ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍا ﻲ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ‪،‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد‪ 91.‬ﻭوﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃأﻥن ﻣﺼﺮ ﺗﻮﺍاﺟﻪﮫ ﺣﺪﻭوﺩدﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﳌﻮﺍاﺭرﺩد ﺍاﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺎﻷﺧﺺ‬

‫ﻭوﺍاﳌﻴﺎﻩ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺍا‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻷﺭرﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻊ ﺇإﻧﺘﺎﺝج ﻣﺤﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﺍا ﺒﻮﺏب‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺰﺭرﺍاﻋﺔ ﻻ ﻳﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﺮﺩدﻭوﺩد ﺎ )ﻟ ﻞ ﻜﺘﺎﺭر(‪  ‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﺇإﻻ ﺟﺰﺀءﺍا ﺿ ﻴﻼ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍاﳌﻘﺎﺭرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺮﺩدﻭوﺩد ﺎ‬
‫‪  ‬‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ 92.‬ﺇإﻥن ﺬﻩ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﻌﺘ ﻏ ﻣﺜﻤﺮﺓة ﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺃأﺧﺬﻧﺎ ﻌ ﻥن ﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭر ﻣﺤﺪﻭوﺩدﻳﺔ ﺍاﳌﻮﺍاﺭرﺩد ﺍاﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد‪ ،‬ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺗﺠﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻏ ﺍاﳌﺮ‬

‫ﳌﺼﺮ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﻛﺘﻔﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺬﺍا ﻲ‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺇإﻧﺘﺎﺝج‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء؛ ﻭو ﻤﺎ ﺃأﻥن ﻭوﺟﻮﺩد ﺳﻮﺍاﻕق ﺍا ﺎﺻﺔ ﺍاﳌﺘ ﻨﺔ ﻭو ﻧﺨﺮﺍاﻁط‬

‫ﻣﺴﺎﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺓة‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻌﺘ ﻋﻼﺟﺎﺕت ﻧﺎﺟﻌﺔ ﻟﻔﻘﺪﺍاﻥن ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍا ﻲ‪ 93،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﻳﺠﺐ‬

‫ﻋﻠ ﺎ ﺃأﻥن ﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻋ ﻥن ﺍاﻟﺰﺭرﺍا‬

‫ﻭوﺍاﻟﺼﻨﺎ‬

‫ﺑﺘﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﺻﺎﺩدﺭرﺍا ﻤﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀء‬

‫ﺴﻴﻂ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺇإﺯزﺍاﻟﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﻮﺍاﺋﻖ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻘﻒ ﻭوﺟﻪﮫ ﺍاﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺲ ﻭوﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺓة‪  .‬‬
‫ﻭوﻋ ﺍاﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺣﺮﺍاﺯز ﻌﺾ ﺍاﻟﺘﻘﺪﻡم‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺇإﺯزﺍاﻟﺔ ﻋﻮﺍاﺋﻖ ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺓة‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﻕق‬

‫ﻭوﺳﻂ ﻭوﺷﻤﺎﻝل ﺃأﻓﺮ ﻘﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺬﻩ ﺍاﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺰﺍاﻝل ﻌﺎ ﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻏﻴﺎﺏب ﺳﻮﺍاﻕق‬
‫ﺍاﳌﻨﺨﺮﻃﺔ ﺸ ﻞ ﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻟﻮﺣﺪ ﺎ ﺑﺎﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓة ﻋ‬
‫ﻓﻌ‬

‫ﺷﺆﻭوﻥن ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‪  .‬ﻭو ﻤﻜﻦ ﻟ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﻘﻮﻡم‬

‫ﻧﺨﺮﺍاﻁط ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﻱي ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺇإﺯزﺍاﻟﺔ ﻌﺾ ﺍاﻟﻌﻮﺍاﺋﻖ ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓة؛‬

‫ﺳ ﻴﻞ ﺍاﳌﺜﺎﻝل‪   :‬ﺗ ﺴ ﺐ ﺇإﺟﺮﺍاﺀءﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﺘﺨﻠﻴﺺ ﺍا ﻤﺮ ﻲ ﺍاﳌﻌﻘﺪﺓة ﻋ‬

‫ﺍا ﺪﻭوﺩد‬

‫‪   91‬ﻣﺎ ﻌﺪ ﺍاﻟ ﻮﺓة ﺍاﻟﻌﺮﻴﺔ‪  ..‬ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﻭو ﺳ ﺜﻤﺎﺭرﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﺍاﻟﻔﻘﺮ ﻭو ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍا ﻲ‪  :‬‬
‫ﻠﻴﻤﻴ ﺲ ﺑﺮ ﺴ ﻨﻐﺮ ﻭوﺁآﺧﺮﻭوﻥن )ﻡم‪.(66‬‬
‫‪  92‬ﺳﻮﺃأ ﻣﻦ ﺫذﻟﻚ ﻭوﺟﻮﺩد ﻧﻘﺎﺵش ﻏ ﺭرﺳ ﺣﻮﻝل ﻛﺘﻔﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺬﺍا ﻲ ﺇإﻧﺘﺎﺝج ﺍا ﺒﻮﺏب‪  .‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪  :‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﺤﺮ ﺮ‬
‫ﺇإ ﻛﺘﻔﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺬﺍا ﻲ‪  ..‬ﻣﺼﺮ ﺗﺮﺳﻢ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺯزﺭرﺍاﻋﻴﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓة‪  :‬ﻣﺮﻭو‪  ‬ﺓة ﺣﺴ ﻥن )ﻡم‪  .(67‬‬
‫‪   93‬ﺭرﺍاﺟﻊ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻼ‪ ،‬ﺍاﻟﺘﻘﺮﺮ ﺍاﻟﺬﻱي ﺻﺪﺭر ﺣﺪﻳﺜﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺍا ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻳﻄﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮﺍاﻥن‪  :‬ﻞ ﺗﺆﺩدﻱي ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺓة‬
‫ﺇإ ﺗﺤﺴ ﻥن ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍا ﻲ؟ )ﻡم‪.(68‬‬
‫‪529‬‬

‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺩدﺍاﺀء ﺍاﻟﻠﻮﺟﺴ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻚ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭو‬

‫ﺑﺎﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽض ﺗﺮﺗ ﺐ ﻣﺼﺮ ﺇإ ﺍاﳌﺮﺍاﺗﺐ ﺍاﻟﺪﻧﻴﺎ‬

‫)ﺍاﳌﺮﺗﺒﺔ ‪ 92‬ﻋﺎﳌﻴﺎ(‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻮ ﺗﻘﺮ ﺮ ﺗﺨﻤﻴ ﻳﻘﻮﻡم ﻋ ﻣ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ‪  .‬ﻭو ﺒ ﻋ ﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻮ ﺲ‪ ،‬ﻭو‬

‫ﺩدﺍاﺀء ﺍاﻟﻠﻮﺟﺴ‬

‫ﺩدﻭوﻝل‬

‫‪  ‬ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃأﺧ ﺍا‪ ،‬ﺃأﻥن ﺗﻮﺳﻊ ﺍاﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﺍا ﺎﺻﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻘﻼﻝل ﺍاﻟﺬﺍا ﻲ ﺴ ﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺟﻨﻮﺏب ﺷﺮﻕق ﻗﻨﺎﺓة‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻮ ﺲ )ﺫذﺍاﺕت ﺿﺮﺍاﺋﺐ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻭوﻣﻌﺎﻳ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﺴﻴﻄﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻭوﺃأﻥن ﺗﻘﺪﻡم ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻯى‪  .‬‬
‫ﻋ ﺇإ ﺸﺎﺀء ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﺃأﺧﺮ ‪  ‬‬
‫ﻭوﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌﻼﺣﻆ ﺃأﻥن ﻗﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﺼﺮ ﻌﺎ ﻲ ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻭوﻃﺄﺓة ﺍاﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﺍاﳌﻔﺮﻁط‬
‫ﻟ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭر ﺍاﳌﺪﻋﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﺘﻀﺎﻓﺮ ﻣﻊ ﺳﻴﻄﺮﺓة ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻟﻴﺔ ﻭوﺗﻮﺯز ﻌ ﺎ ﻟﺘ ﺴ ﺐ ﺑﺮﺩدﻉع ﺩدﺧﻮﻝل ﺍاﳌﺴ ﺜﻤﺮ ﻦ ﺇإ‬
‫ﺃأﺯزﻣﺎﺕت‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﻋ‬

‫ﺗﻜﺮ ﺮ ﺍاﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕت‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﳌﺠﺎﻝل ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳﺆﺩدﻱي ﺇإ‬

‫ﺩدﺍاﺋﻤﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﺍاﻟ ﻴﺌﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺒ ﻭوﻝل‪ ،‬ﻭو‬

‫ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﺪﻳﺮ ﺎ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﺤﻜﻢ‬

‫ﺑﺠﺰﺀء ﻛﺒ ﻣﻦ ﺇإﻧﺘﺎﺝج ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻝل ﻭوﺍاﻟ ﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﺮﺋ ﺴﻴﺔ ﺧﺮﻯى‪ ،‬ﺑﻤﺎ ﻓ ﺎ‪  :‬ﺍاﺳﺘ ﺍاﺩد ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻝل‬
‫ﺍا ﺎﻡم ﻭوﺗﻜﺮ ﺮﻩ‪  .‬ﻭوﻋ ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪﮫ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﺍاﻟﻘﺎﺑﻀﺔ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﺯزﺍاﺕت ﺍاﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭو ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﺪﻳﺮ ﺎ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺗﻜﺘﻔﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻜﺸﺎﻑف ﻣ ﺎﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯز ﺍاﻟﻄﺒﻴ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺒﻼﺩد ﻭوﺣﺴﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﻧﻤﺎ ﺗﻘﻮﻡم ﺇإ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺫذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺩدﺍاﺭرﺓة ﺟﻮﺍاﻧﺐ ﺃأﺧﺮﻯى ﺿﻤﻦ ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯز‬
‫ﺍاﳌﺴﺎﻝل‪   .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺇإﻥن ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﻨﺨﺮﻁط‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻄﺒﻴ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻤﺎ‬

‫ﺫذﻟﻚ‪   :‬ﺍاﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍاﻡم ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯز ﺍاﻟﻄﺒﻴ‬

‫ﺸ ﻞ ﻣﻔﺮﻁط‬

‫ﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕت ﻓﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﻣﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯزﻭوﻟ ﻥن ﻳﻘﻊ )‪  (%33.5‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺳﻮﻕق ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻴﻄﺮﺓة )ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﺼﺮ ﻟﻠﺒ ﻭوﻝل(‪  ‬ﺍاﻟ ﺗﺪﻳﺮ ﺎ ﺍا‬
‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇإ‬
‫ﻭوﺫذﻟﻚ ‪  ‬‬

‫ﺴﺒﺔ ﺃأﺧﺮﻯى )‪   (%30‬ﺴﻴﻄﺮ ﻋﻠ ﺎ ﺍا ﻤﻌﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭوﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒ ﻭوﻝل‪،‬‬

‫ﻭو ﺃأﺣﺪ ﺃأﺫذﺭرﻉع ﺍاﻟ ﻴﺌﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺒ ﻭوﻝل‪  94.‬‬

‫‪  94‬ﻣ‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ‪،‬‬

‫ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕق ﻣﺼﺮ‪  ..‬ﺍاﻟﺒ ﻭوﻝل ﻭوﺍاﻟﻐﺎﺯز‪  :‬ﻭوﺯزﺍاﺭرﺓة ﺍاﻟﺸﺆﻭوﻥن ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻮﻟﻨﺪﻳﺔ )ﻡم‪.(69‬‬
‫‪520‬‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻭوﻛﻨ ﻴﺠﺔ ﳌﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺑﺪ ﻷﻱي ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻟﻠﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬
‫ﻳ ﺍاﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﺇإﻋﺎﺩدﺓة ﻴ ﻠﺔ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ﻟ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع ﻭوﺧ‬

‫ﻣﺠﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺃأﻥن‬

‫ﺼﺘﻪﮫ؛ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ‬

‫ﺣﺰﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﺪﻳﺮ ﺎ ﺍاﻟ ﻴﺌﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺒ ﻭوﻝل ﻭوﻏ ﺎ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺸﺮ ﺎﺕت ﺍاﳌﻤﻠﻮﻛﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭوﻟﺔ ﻭوﺧ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺮ ﻥن ﺃأﻥن ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻤﻮﺍا‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﺼﺔ ﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺬﻩ ﺍاﻟ ﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕت ﻋ ﺣﺪﺓة‪ ،‬ﻭو ﻤﻜﻦ‬

‫ﺬﺍا ﺍاﳌﺠﺎﻝل ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺏب ﺍاﻟﻨﺎ‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﻣﻤﺎ ﺷ ﺪﻩ ﻗﻄﺎﻉع ﺍاﻟﻜ ﺮ ﺎﺀء‬

‫ﺔ‬

‫ﺇإﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺑﻠﺪﺍاﻥن ﻣﻦ ﺃأﻣﺜﺎﻝل ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺯز ﻞ‬

‫ﻭوﺗﺮﻛﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺮﺍاﻓﻖ ﺇإﻟﻐﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﻓ ﺎ ﻣﻊ‪  :‬ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻹﻋﺎﺩدﺓة ﻴ ﻠﺔ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉع‪،‬‬
‫ﻭوﺯز ﺎﺩدﺓة ﺍاﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺲ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺗﺤﺴ ﻥن ﺍاﻟﻨﻔﺎﺫذ ﻭوﺍاﻟﻨﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻭوﻣﻮﺛﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﻌﺮﻭوﺽض‪  .‬‬
‫ﺍا ﻼﺻﺔ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﺻﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت ﻣﺼﺮﻳﺠﺪﻭوﻥن ﺃأﻧﻔﺴ ﻢ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺍاﻟﻨﻔﺎﺩد ﺍاﻟﺘﺪﺭر‬

‫ﻣﻮﻗﻒ ﺻﻌﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍاﺭرﺩد ﺍاﻟﻼﺯزﻣﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍاﺭر ﺑﻤﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻳﺠﻌﻞ ﻐﻴ ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕت‪ ،‬ﻣ ﻤﺎ ﺎﻥن ﻧﻮﻉع ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺘﻐﻴ ‪ ،‬ﺃأﻣﺮﺍا ﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺍا ﻴﻠﻮﻟﺔ ﺩدﻭوﻥن‬
‫ﻭوﻗﻮﻋﻪﮫ‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﳌﻤﺎﻃﻠﺔ ﻳ ﺒ ﻋ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮ ﺔ ﺃأﻥن ﺗﺘﺼﺮﻑف ﺍاﻟﻴﻮﻡم ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍاﻟﻐﺪ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺇإﻥن ﺻﻼﺡح ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﳌﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ّ‬
‫ﻳﺼﻤﻢ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭرﻩ‬
‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻳﺠﺐ ﺃأﻥن‬

‫ﻐﻴ ﺍا ﺩدﺍاﺋﻤﺎ ﻻ ﺍاﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝل ﻓﻴﻪﮫ ﻹﻣ ﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺟﻊ ﻷﻏﺮﺍاﺽض ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻧﺤﻮ ﺩدﻋﻢ ﺍاﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬
‫ﺳ ﻼﻛﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ؛ ﻭوﻟ ﻴﻠﻮﻟﺔ ﺩدﻭوﻥن ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟ ﺍاﺟﻊ ﻳﺠﺐ ﻋ‬

‫ﺷﺮﺍاﺋﺢ ﺗﺪﻋﻤﻪﮫ ﳌﻨﻊ ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴ ﻥن ﻣﻦ ﺇإﺣﻴﺎﺀء ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﺻﻼﺡح ﺃأﻥن ﻳﺨﻠﻖ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴﺒﻞ‬

‫ﺍاﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻟﻔﻌﻞ ﺫذﻟﻚ‪  :‬ﺿﻤﺎﻥن ﻓ ﻢ ﺍا ﺰﺀء ﻛ ‪  ‬ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺱس ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩدﻳﺔ ﻟﻺﺻﻼﺡح‬
‫ﻭوﺃأﻥن ﺴﺘﻄﻴﻌﻮﺍا ﺍاﻟﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺎ‪   .‬ﻭو ﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﺠﺐ ﻋ‬
‫ﺃأﻧﻔﺴ ﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝل ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﺍا‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴ ﻥن ﺃأﻥن ﻳﻘﻴﺪﻭوﺍا‬

‫ﺎﺯز ﺩدﺍاﺭرﻱي ﺍاﳌﻨﺨﺮﻁط ﺗﻮﺯز ﻊ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﻭوﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺳﻌﺎﺭر‪  .‬‬

‫ﻭوﻟﻠﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺤﺪﺛﻪﮫ ﺬﺍا ﺻﻼﺡح ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﻂ ﺷﻌ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥن ﺍا ﻞ ﻛ‬

‫ﻭوﺍاﻗﻌﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺑﺪ ﺃأﻥن ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺧﻄﺔ ﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺳ ﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻻ ﺷﻚ ﻨﺎ‬

‫ﺃأﻥن ﺍاﳌﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍاﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍاﻟﺘﻌﻮ ﻀﻴﺔ ﻣﻠﻴﺌﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﻜﻼﺕت ﺍاﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ‬
‫‪521‬‬

‫ﺎﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻝل ﻭوﺍاﻟﺸﻌﺒﻮ ﺔ ﺍاﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜ ﺎ ﻌﺘ ﺗﺤﺴ ﻨﺎ ﻭوﺍا‬

‫ﺎ‬

‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬

‫ﺃأﻭوﺳﻊ ﺗﻘﻮﻡم ﻋ ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣ ﺍاﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﺮﺍا ﻨﺔ‪  .‬ﻭوﺃأﺧ ﺍا‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺑﺪ ﻟﻺﺻﻼﺡح ﺃأﻥن ﻳ ﻮﻥن ﺟﺰﺀءﺍا ﻣﻦ ﺣﺰﻣﺔ ‪  ‬‬
‫ﺑﺘﺤﺮ ﺮ ﺃأﺳﻮﺍاﻕق ﺍاﻟﻐﺬﺍاﺀء ﻭوﺍاﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭوﺍاﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋ ﺍاﻧﺨﺮﺍاﻁط ﻣﺼﺮ ﺸ ﻞ ﺃأﻓﻀﻞ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭرﺓة‬

‫ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺇإﻥن ﻣﺸ ﻠﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻣﺼﺮﻟ ﺴﺖ ﺃأﻣﺮﺍا ﻳﻨﻔﺮﺩد ﺑﻪﮫ ﺬﺍا ﺍاﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺩدﻭوﻥن ﻏ ﻩ‬

‫ّ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺑﻠﺪﺍاﻥن ﺍاﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜ ﺎ ﺸ ﻞ ﺍا ﺎﻟﺔ‬

‫ﻛ ﻭوﺿﻮﺣﺎ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺸﺮﻕق ﻭوﺳﻂ ﻭوﺷﻤﺎﻝل‬

‫ﺃأﻓﺮ ﻘﻴﺎ ﺸ ﻞ ﻋﺎﻡم‪ ،‬ﻭو ﺘﻔﺎﻗﻢ ﻣﺮ ﺃأﻛ ﻣﻊ ﺍا ﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﺗﻘﻮﻝل ﺑﺄﻥن ﻣﺼﺮ ﺗﻀﻢ ﺑ ﻥن‬
‫ﺟﻨﺒﺎ ﺎ ﺃأﻛ ﻋﺪﺩد ﻣﻦ ﺍاﻟﺴ ﺎﻥن ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭرﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺑﺎ ﺍاﻟﺪﻭوﻝل ﺍاﻟﻌﺮ ﻴﺔ؛ ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺍاﺳﺘﻄﺎﻋﺖ ﻣﺼﺮ‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝل ﺇإ ﺣﻞ ﺣﺎﺳﻢ ﳌﺸ ﻠﺔ ﺍاﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍا‬

‫ﻮﻣﻲ ﻓﺈﻥن ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺬﺍا ﺍا ﻞ ﻟﻦ ﺗﻨﻔﻊ‬

‫ﺍاﻟﺸﻌﺐ ﺍاﳌﺼﺮﻱي ﻭوﺣﺴﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺇإﻧﻤﺎ ﺳﺘﻘﺪﻡم ﺃأﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﺜﺎﻻ ﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪ ﻣﻨﻪﮫ ﺍاﳌﺼ ﻮﻥن‬
‫ﺍاﻟﻘﺎﺩدﻣﻮﻥن ﺍاﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕت‪  ‬‬
‫ﺃأﻭوﺩد‬

‫ﻴﻞ ﺷﻜﺮﻱي ﻟﻠﺘﻌﻠﻴﻘﺎﺕت ﺍاﻟ ﺃأﺑﺪﺍا ﺎ ﻞ ﻣﻦ‪   :‬ﻟﻮﺭرﺍا ﺍاﻟﻜﺘ ﻱي‪ ،‬ﻭوﻣﺎﺭرﺗ ﻥن‬

‫ﺭر ﻜﻴ ﺲ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺳ ﻴﻔﺎ ﻲ ﺭرﻭوﻏﻮﻟﻮ‪ ،‬ﻭوﻟ ﻥن ﺷﺎ ﻠﺘﻮﻥن‪ ،‬ﻭوﺩدﻳﻔﻴﺪ ﺳ ﺎﺭر ﻴﻚ‪ ،‬ﻭوﺃأﻟﻜﺴﺎﻧﺪﺭرﺗ ﺘﻠﺒﻮ ﻢ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻭوﻻ ﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺎﺭرﺓة ﺇإ ﺍا ﻮﺩد ﺍاﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ ﺍاﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯزﺓة ﻭوﺍاﳌﻌﻮﻧﺔ ﺍاﻟﺘﺤﺮ ﺮ ﺔ ﺍاﻟ ﻗﺪﻣ ﺎ ﻣﺎﺭر ﺎ‬
‫ﺃأﻧﺪﺭرﺳﻦ‪  .‬ﻭوﺇإﺫذﺍا ﺍاﺣﺘﻮﻯى ﺍاﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋ ﺃأﺧﻄﺎﺀء ﻓﺄﻧﺎ ﺍاﳌﺴﺆﻭوﻝل ﻋ ﺎ ﺟﻤﻠﺔ ﻭوﺗﻔﺼﻴﻼ‪.‬‬
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