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Good morning, and welcome to The Rundown. Turns out, 95 percent of Crimeans love Russia and want to be part of the Putin experience. Who knew? Vladimir Putin, thats who. And it also turns out that in this world, if youre committed to a particular outcome (cc: Rouhani, Kim, Assad), youll beat out the guy whos playing golf. Happy snow day . . . again. Your AEI Foreign and Defense Policy Studies team

Tweet of the Week

Danielle Pletka @DPletka Leaning in RT @NotMattBellamy: @DPletka The problem with Putin is that he's too damn bossy.

In the News
Ukraine
To no one's surprise, Ukraine's autonomous Crimea region has voted overwhelmingly to break from Ukraine and join Russia. But what happens next is far from certain. After the successful uprising of the Ukrainian people and the aggressive, illegal response by Russia, no leader from the Democrats or Republicans has called for the United States to stay on the sidelines because the situation isn't relevant to America's security, prosperity, or values. Good news indeed, and all the more because it contrasts so sharply with the prevailing anti-internationalist mood in Washington. Former Senators Jon Kyl and Joseph Lieberman write for Real Clear World: There has been much debate some manufactured, to be sure about partisanship and criticism of the handling of crises such as the one in Crimea. Underlying the made-for-television histrionics, however, is a troubling truth: There is still work to be done to restore the bipartisan consensus that for so long has served as the foundation of U.S. global leadership. Vladimir Putin sees his mission as recovering the Russian states political, economic, social, cultural and

geostrategic assets that were lost in the Soviet collapse and reestablishing the states control over politics, the legal system, the economy (first and foremost, oil and gas), and the national cultural narrative. Check out Leon Aron's piece for POLITICO: This vision of Russias geostrategy explains why a Europe-bound Ukraine is such a sharp and deep setback for the Putin regime and why it necessitated such a swift response. . . . Containment, destabilization and, if possible, derailment of the new, pro-Western Ukraine have become (and will continue to be) a key domestic political issue for Putin, whose legitimacy is being threatened by Ukraines exit from Russias sphere of influence. Also check back on AEI.org for video of Arons appearance on CNBCs Squawk Box, discussing the latest situation in Ukraine. While more Russian forces were pouring into Crimea, where was our commander in chief? Monitoring events in the Situation Room? Meeting with the Joint Chiefs at the Pentagon? Holding an emergency meeting of NATO leaders? Nope. He was enjoying the Florida sunshine with his family at an oceanfront resort in Key Largo. And Vice President Biden? He was on vacation in the Virgin Islands. What should Obama and Biden do now that they are back from spring break? Marc Thiessen writes that Obama should stop treating this as a crisis to be managed and explain to Americans what is at stak e why Russian aggression must not be allowed to stand and why the universal values on which our country was founded must be defended.

Syria
This week the Syria crisis reached another ominous milestone, passing the three-year mark with well over 100,000 deaths, millions displaced, and no clear sign of an end to the death, destruction, and suffering. There is a widespread belief among American diplomats and statesmen that it never hurts to talk. Michael Rubin refutes this common misconception for AEIdeas, arguing that diplomacy is neither cost-free nor a panacea: "Alas, Assad has become exhibit number one in why diplomacy with rogues is exorbitant in cost but ineffective in result. Diplomats often whitewash rogues to suggest diplomacy can work. . . . Handshakes and hugs for the Syrian thug accomplished little but to demoralize political prisoners and a terrorized public who saw state television broadcast the images as endorsement for the regime." For more on this topic, be sure to check out Rubins latest book, "Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes."

Defense
The White House has yet to send the US Congress a line-by-line breakdown of its fiscal year 2015 $56 billion Opportunity, Growth, and Security Initiative of which $26 billion is earmarked for the Pentagon. But getting support from Congress for the spending plan tacked onto the new budget request seems unlikely. President Obamas latest defense budget would shrink the US Navys fleet from 11 aircraft carriers to 10, absent additional funding. But the truth is that America is currently a nine-carrier nation. Whereas the question used to be Where are the carriers? a new question emerges What carriers? Mackenzie Eaglen and Bryan McGrath argue that Congress must now decide if Americas single-digit carrier fleet is enough to meet the global demands of a superpower. They conclude that the US should return to a three hub Navy and build the carrier force to twelve. This would provide the president an d the next with credible options in each of the three areas of broad US strategic interest. 12 carriers would provide

those who wish to disturb the peace with a powerful, persistent and present reason to reconsider. Also read Eaglens latest piece for Breaking Defense, clearing some of the fog on the most confusing defense budget submission in recent times. There is a widespread view that the federal acquisition system is broken. This long-standing conclusion has heralded in 50 years of acquisition reform, yet dissatisfaction with the system is greater than ever within Congress, the executive branch, and the industrial base. After hundreds of studies and the enactment of decades of legislation, regulations, policies, and rules, it appears Congress is on the cusp of yet another potential new reform effort. William Greenwalt reviews the historical framework and reveals the nature of the acquisition problem in his latest piece for Public Spend Forum. ICYMI: Read Phillip Lohaus and Christopher Griffin for Real Clear Defense: "Joint Strike Fighter: No longer just 'too big to kill'". They argue, The F-35 program has made hard choices to implement needed reforms, and America and its allies will ultimately be more secure as a result. Whether the administration and Congress can work together to ensure that this vital asset remains a budgetary priority, unfortunately, remains to be seen."

Afghanistan
In his final address to Afghanistans parliament on Saturday, President Hamid Karzai told the United States its soldiers can leave at the end of the year because his military, which already protects 93 percent of the country, was ready to take over entirely. As US forces prepare to leave Afghanistan after nearly 13 years of war, much of Washington has focused on Karzai's refusal to sign a security agreement that would keep a small contingent of US troops in Afghanistan. In the midst of this political posturing, Afghanistan is readying itself for its April presidential election. This election promises a new page not only for the country but also for US-Afghan relations. On March 24, just a few weeks before Afghanistan's presidential election, AEI will host a discussion on Afghanistan's changing political and security landscape and what the new landscape means for future US involvement in the region.

Asia
Japanese Prime Minister Shinz Abe said on Friday that his government would not revise a landmark 1993 apology to women, many Korean, forced to serve in wartime military brothels, as Washington presses for better ties between its two Asian allies. In making clear that his government will not revise the official 1993 apology, Japans Prime Minister Abe has taken a major step to defang some of the strongest foreign criticism of his supposedly dangerous nationalism. Michael Auslin covers this for AEIdeas: In making clear that his government is, at least for now, as realistic about history as his critics were delusional, Abe should have put paid to the grosser defamations of his character. Perhaps he will reveal his true stripes in a few years tim e, but more likely, his critics have already revealed theirs. And hot on the heels of deciding not to revise the 1993 comfort women apology, Abe is calling for a trilateral summit with President Obama and South Korean President Park Geun-Hye. Auslin argues that Washington should strongly encourage (if not pressure) Park to agree to Abes offer. It should make it clear

to Seoul that continued animosity between Japan and South Korea is making it increasingly difficult for American policymakers and defense planners to respond to Northeast Asias changing security environment.

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