Dr Simon Michaux

Summary
Current industrial network
Peak industrialisation and the coming transformation Fragmentation of the current single paradigm into three parallel paradigms
1. Increasing irrational and extreme defence of the current system to maintain the Status Quo

2.
3.

Development of a self-sufficient community to meet fundamental needs.

Development of new society against a new set of paradigms. This will mean transforming the existing industrial technology grid into something else. This will take decades of hard work

An attempt to show how all three paradigms will interact over time

The writing on the wall

Everything we need/want to operate is drawn from nonrenewable natural resources in a finite system

Most of those natural resources are depleting or will soon

Demand for everything we need/want is expanding fast When these trends meet, there will come a point where how we do things will fundamentally change None of these issues can be seen in isolation.

Current Network System

Inputs Inputs

Fragile

Isolationist in form
Inputs Inputs

Utterly dependant utilities and institutions to function

Output (Inputs to another system)

Each corporate chain Government division Social structures

Modus Operandi structured in context of reliable communications grid and ease of transport over long distances

Unbalanced, High energy, High tech, Unsustainable

Current Network System

Conceptual Current Paradigm

The Current Industrial Network

Retail Just In Time Supply Grid Industrial Agriculture Manufacture of Goods Construction of Infrastructure Manufacture of Structural Materials Mining of Raw Materials
Iron Ore
Copper Nickel Zinc Gold

Fertiliser Pesticides Herbicides

Finance

Energy
Plastics Oil Gas Uranium Coal Contingent on a stable climate and unchanging environment

Industrial Chemicals Aluminium

Steel
Cement

48% Decrease in Multifactor Productivity

110

Indexed 2000-01 = 100

100 90 80 70 60 50

Topp et al. (2008)

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012)

Ore Grades Are Decreasing

Conventional mining practice is struggling to remain economically viable

Production is Increasing

Driven by increasing demand

Total Mining costs have also risen

200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

Total Income Total Expenses

ABS 1350.0 Financial Markets - Long term http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/1350.0Jul%202012?OpenDocument ABARES - Australian Mineral Statistics March 2011

Metal Price Cost (Indexed to the year 2000)

700
600 Au Pb Cu Zn Year 2008 (GFC)

Real Price Indexed 2000-01 = 100

500

Ag
Al

Ni

300 200 100 0

ABS 1350.0 Financial Markets - Long term http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/1350.0Jul%202012?OpenDocument ABARES - Australian Mineral Statistics March 2011

Mining crash

400

Fe Ore

Peak Conventional Oil Production - 2006

World Crude Oil & Lease Condensate Production, Including Canada Oil Sands

GFC 2008
Oil spot price vs. global production -transition point in behaviour
Price $50 USD/barrel Price $147 USD/barrel

International Energy Agency

Source: EIA, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Megaprojects, Tony Erikson ace theoildrum.com

http://makewealthhistory.org/2010/11/11/iea-peak-oil-happened-in-2006/

Oil Demand & supply & the GFC

Oil is the ability to do work

GFC

China industrial demand dominated the rest of the planet

China now dominates manufacturing and resource consumption

Metal Price Cost (Indexed to the year 2000)

700
600 Au Pb Cu Zn Chinese industrial demand

Real Price Indexed 2000-01 = 100

500

Ag
Al

Ni
Fe Ore

400
300 200 100 0

Oil supply became inelastic

Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) 2008

Energy consumption in mining increased 450% in the last 40 years

Case Study: Coal Seam Gas

How will government and corporate culture behave while managing a needed resource in an era of scarcity?

Coal Seam Gas

CSG projects in Australia have been rushed through the system and all of them were accepted If due process was properly followed, then the majority of CSG projects would have been rejected

Private companies and government have colluded together at the expense of the people on the ground
Extensive legal and political resources have been applied to ensure the continued development of CSG Concerns of the people on the ground are the loss of drinking water and environmental pollution in the region where they live and where they earn their livelihood
The charge is that the State Governments (desperate for revenue) have sold out the public in exchange for a mining royalties revenue stream

Peak Gas
Year 2011 Year 2010

Source: The Energy Bulletin & APSO

In 2011, available gas data was dodgy

US Shale Gas Fracking Boom

US Shale Gas Fracking Boom

US Shale Gas Fracking Bust

How does the EIA get these fantastic future predictions?
Take the best gas content of the sweet spots in each fracking field Take the highest recovery rates of the best fracking wells in each fracking field

Extend both of these to the entire volume of the fracking gas field
Sum all fields together, ignore logistical issues and process issues

Production from shale gas fracked wells typically declines 80 to 95% in the first 36 months of operation

For US shale gas industry to maintain 2013 production rates, it needs to drill approx. 7200 new wells each year
CSG in SE Qld is considered less productive than US unconventional gas plays

Peak Gas
Year 2018

Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013

CSG and Shale Gas has pushed this date back from approx. 2010

Peak Coal

Year 2020

Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013

This should frighten the hell out of any thinking politician

World supply of fossil fuels and uranium

Peak energy approx. 2017

Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013

What happens to democracy and due process when there is not enough to resources to go around?

Fiat currency meltdown

Fiat currency meltdown Currency devaluation & reset Sovereign debt default Debt saturation Credit freeze Hyper-inflation Hyper-deflation Hyper-stagflation

Until we change how money works, we change nothing at all

World is saturated in debt

(1/2/2014)

90% Debt/GDP = Crossing the Rubicon

(Its all good as long as we can continue to expand and no one calls in the debts)

Industrial Procurement Currency Trade Links

Disrupt USA, EU & Japan as places to do business with

Disrupt $USD as a world reserve currency

Disrupt China as a world industry life support

The Industrial Big Picture

Expansion of production needed to stay viable Peak Mining =

Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Peak Fossil + Grind size + Depth + Grade Fuel
Expansion of money needed to service debt Sovereign Debt FIAT + Credit + Structural + Default Currency Inflation Freeze Devaluation

Peak Finance =

Peak Manufacturing Peak Industrialisation

The End of the Industrial Revolution

The End of Materialism

Population Overshoot

Financial Systemic Meltdown

Reset all FIAT currencies asset based Restructure all debt Need to grow into new system

Energy supply disrupted then unavailable

Cannot sustain growth Cannot grow economy system Change to alternative energy system Rebuild all infrastructure to meet requirements of new energy system

Natural raw materials unavailable for industrialisation

Systemic environmental disruption

Cannot supply raw materials for construction or manufacture at needed rate or volume, if at all Need to reassess what is really needed Mine our rubbish dumps

Puts pressure on all other sectors except finance Most people of which have few relevant skills outside existing paradigm Wilful ignorance & aggressive apathy

Cannot run any existing system for very long Resilience and redundancy required on all fronts Practical carrying capacity vastly reduced

The fate of the current system of industrial management

This is not the end of industrialization but the end of the current way of doing this. A new system will be developed through necessity.

When?
The party is over when demand for something vital outstrips supply Some vital service ceases to function reliably or at all The average people en-masse understands that the world they live in is no longer possible And there is no easy solution at hand that allows their life to continue in the fashion they have become accustomed to
At which point, its on like Donkey Kong!!!

Civil unrest all over the world (1/2/2014)

Ukraine Jan 2014

Civil unrest all over the world (1/2/2014)

Civil unrest all over the world (1/2/2014)

Civil unrest all over the world (1/2/2014)

Civil unrest all over the world (1/2/2014)

Civil unrest all over the world (1/2/2014)

Food and civil unrest

Inability to buy food correlates with civil unrest

Food and the price of oil

Source: Adapted from DECPG data.

Industrial agriculture is failing

Petro-chemical fertilisers and herbicides are increasingly less effective, requiring more each year for the same output
Every year, 0.30.8% of global arable land (24 billion tons of fertile soil) disappear/year and is rendered unsuitable for agricultural production 52% of the land used for agriculture is moderately or severely affected by soil degradation Arable land loss estimated at 30 to 35 times the historical rate In Australia, organic matter humus content has fallen from approx. 5% to less than 1% (needs to be approx. 20%)

Conventional food sources are in the process of failing

So fix it!
Individual Family or Household Town or City Nation State
Functional society basics Food / water / sewerage / power Secondary order services Mechanics / plumbers / etc

Distribution networks

Tertiary order services Manufacture of parts Heavy industrial manufacture Mining Industry / supply of raw materials and energy

With 20/20 hindsight

Where we should be
business as usual
Mounting Stress Early small scale crisis Deterioration and Fragmentation

Fundamental Reform

Inelastic oil supply 2005

Where we are
Temporary solution loop
business as usual
Mounting Stress Early small scale crisis

We are here

Existential large scale crisis

Peak Total Energy 2017

Writeoff/Reset All 5 Stages of Human Grief at all scales

Deterioration and Fragmentation Existential large scale crisis

Decay/Collapse
Conquest of another system

Understand true implications

Forced Transformation

This diagnoses a certain outcome

Society will Break into 3 Paradigm Streams

Paradigm 1 ~ Defend Status Quo at all costs Paradigm 2 ~ Develop a low energy self sufficient society to meet the here and now needs like food & water Paradigm 3 ~ Develop a new industrial grid to meet a new set of requirements

Current Paradigm

Manic Defence of the Status Quo at all costs

Continuity of Government

Bail in Asset Confiscation

Severe Austerity & Poverty

Rationing & Shortages

Industrial Agriculture
Fertiliser Pesticides Herbicides

Finance
New Corp/Gov Entity

Energy
Military Plastics engagements to secure assets in resource wars Oil Gas Uranium Coal Phosphate Fossilized water Rare Earth Elements

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1
Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

$
Paradigm 1 Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1
Paradigm 1

High risk, Class warfare, Necessity only

Defend the Status Quo at all costs

Conquest and theft of wealth to sustain the unstainable
Bail ins on money in public bank accounts

Confiscation of Superannuation
Forced foreclosure on debts associated with post crash valuable assets Printing of money

Coercion to get the voting public to accept crushing austerity Continuity of Government Protocols Constant breakdown of major services and the quick papering over of the breach

Defend the Status Quo at all costs

Military engagements over natural resources Increasingly irrational logic and problem solving from politicians, as shown by main stream media Fire sale of public assets to corporation interests Bailout of to big to fail banks and big corporations with toxic assets Sale of natural resource deposits to foreign nation states at a fraction of their value in exchange for future under the table deals Bread and Circuss to reassure the public that all is well

Paradigm 1 Defence of Status Quo Visit to the Zoo

The known knowns

The things we know that we do know

The known unknowns

The things we know that we dont know

The unknown unknowns

The things we dont know that we dont know

Food Stores
The is a need for storages of supplies, especially food, to buffer against variability in supply If there was a fuel disruption event (a high probability actually considering our reliance on Middle East crude processed in Singapore) then there would be food shortages within weeks

Resilience the capacity to withstand shocks is very much about buffers in the system and storage of food/fuel/water is a very important part of that
Most households only have one week of food in the cupboard Ideally, one year of food supply stored under CO2 at home 3-6 months of long life food on a rationing basis
Australias estimated stockholdings at point of use

Buy yourself a learning curve

Australia Liquid Fuel Security: A Report for NMRA Motoring and Services (Feb 2013)

1. Shock or Disbelief 2. Denial 3. Anger 4. Bargaining 5. Guilt 6. Depression 7. Acceptance and Hope

So who will respond effectively?

Government will be too overwhelmed to be useful Corporate sector wont be able to function effectively The people on the ground have the flexibility and capability to respond, once they had changed their thinking The work required for self sufficiency is too much for most individuals or even a single family household to be completely self sufficient A community of 30-40 households can respond and could be resilient enough to meet these issues

We the people at the grassroots level. As it was always going to be so, it comes down to us.

Electricity Power
Existing system is very fragile and vulnerable in its current form Dependant on delicate parts manufactured far from here Delicate electronics need pure sine wave power
(computers/Digital TVs)

Rolling blackouts/brownouts and power spikes will be the norm As things get more difficult, government will not be able to maintain the grid to the same standard it does now Probable contraction of power grid around major cities and services will be withdrawn from regional areas Most electrical equipment is not made to last and will quickly degrade Standalone power systems are now required What power is for needs to be completely reassessed

The Low Energy Steady State Network

Money
Dynamic and intimate interaction with environment with a changing climate

Energy
Recycle/Repurpose Iron Ore Balanced, Low energy, Low tech, Sustainable Copper Zinc

Nickel

Gold

Paradigm 2

Solutions in common across historical events

Be socially flexible know who to depend on Self sufficient at the household property Assist in society transformation Low profile problem solving Growing your own food Collect your own drinking water Manage your own sewerage sanitisation Barter based trade Reduce energy needs to bare minimum Dispose of rubbish carefully Manage your own health needs Transport needs cut to bare minimum Education of children self managed Spend time and serious resources replenishing local environment land stewardship

Understand that there are two scales of thinking that happen simultaneously
1. The self sufficient household property
How might your current household transform to become resilient to change and volatility in the coming world?

2. The community need that brings these households together

How your family might retrain into a useful job in this environment and interact with the community around it in a way that is perceived to be needed?

Think of these in short, medium and long term scales

Household: Ideal Capabilities

Power Generation
Diesel Generator Solar hot water Pure Sine Inverter Solar Panel Deep Cycle Batteries Windmill Fireplace Heating

Lighting
LED lights Gas & Oil Lanterns Candles

Refrigerator
Kalgoorlie Fridge

Household Cooking
Gas BBQ Open Fire Hearth Wood Stove Range

Workshop
Hand Tools Conventional Power Tools Electric Car (golf car)

Sewerage System
Septic or Grey Water System Compost Toilet

Washing Machine
Bucket & Wringer

Water Tank
Hand Pump Water Filtration Unit

Transport
Horse(s) Good Walking Shoes Bicycle Diesel Vehicle

Growing Food
Vegetable garden A Milking Cow Chicken Run Compost Heap

Library Rubbish
Recycling

General Stores
workshop disposables (nails & screws) 10 days drinking water Fertilizer Petrol/Diesel 90 days food Vitamins Toiletries Bottled Gas Medication

Communications
Computer Battery Radio Land Line Telephone

Incinerator

Heritage Seeds

Fire wood

Form a Community
Management of appropriate land stewardship in community environment
Attended to by people in the community, to be used by the community A series of local village councils, each representing a geographic area small enough for people to walk to meetings What needs to be done? Who will do it? Where it will be done? Who benefits from the outcome? What tools and community assets will be used? Mapping what is where in the community

Community scale food and product crops

Maintaining communication hubs Building and construction of community assets Dispute resolution Interaction and trade with surrounding communities

Who?

Mandate

Tasks

The Village Community

crops
Storage sheds Meeting Hall Storage sheds
Tasked vacant land

livestock
Work sheds

crops crops
crops

crops crops
livestock

crops
livestock

This is a basic idea. Perhaps you could refit it to suit your local area?

The Network of Communities

Textiles Beef & Leather Products Dairy Products

Metal Casting & Fabrication

Fruit & Vegetables

Hospital

Food Production
Required to be completely organic in method No petroleum based herbicides/pesticides/fertilisers Land stewardship very important
Balance between fruit & vegetables vs. livestock Allowing soil/land to recover effectively & sustainably

Managing seasons with planting calendars critical Seed saving needs to be done in a way that does not impact the rest of the crops Based on soil health
Mineral balance Humus levels Micro-organism content

Nutrition will be more important than ever before Food preservation, canning and meat smoking will be important
The key to a communities health is the quality of its food source

Community Monetary exchange

What does money really do and who for? Revise and restructure the concept of debt

Revise and restructure the concept of ownership

The individual vs. the community

what you see is what you get

Get off fiat electronic currency as a medium of exchange

Have practical logistical support to engage local business with:

Barter in some form (a LETS scheme) The purchase large scale goods (like real estate) with gold or silver bullion Existing Federally issued fiat currency

Food could become money

Whatever the Australian Federal Government recommends as a replacement for the existing Australian fiat currency dollar

Have the authority for local community to make a legally accepted choice with regard to which of the above options is exercised

What will our future technology manufacture profile look like?

Rare examples of early twenty-first century technology Hybrid constructions from recycled parts used innovatively 1930s (pre transistor) technology (what we can manufacture from obsolete equipment around us)

1880s base level technology (what we can create from scratch from the surrounding environment)
We are well past the point where this will be smooth, easy or even polite

Recycle and Recover

Nails, bolts, washers and screws Electrical/ Mechanical parts Leather Wood Metal Plastic Rubber Glass

Supporting Technology
Electrical power

Metal Machining Workshop

Milling Machine

Feed Raw Materials

Tree felling & timber dressing

Skill Set
Woodwork

Welding Power tools

Energy Source
Solar Power

Hydraulic Press Wood Turning Metal Lathe Leather Work Basket weaving Textiles and rope Manufacture of useful devices fit for purpose Forge & bellows Blacksmith Wind power Biogas Water wheel Steam Technology

Animal hide
Bamboo, Hemp & Plant

Shredded rubber Metal feed stock

Rubber Casting Blast furnace Raw materials to provide energy to run (gas, charcoal or coal)

Metal Casting
Pottery Kiln Clay feedstock Ground glass Pottery Glass Kiln Glass Blowing

The New Industrial Network

People supported externally with necessities Must have a closed loop footprint. Must not generate much pollution

Something of physical value Finance to industry

Industrial Chemicals

Simplify

Aluminium

Steel
Cement Plastics Recycling

Manufacture of Simplified Goods Goods Construction of Infrastructure Manufacture of Structural Materials Mining of Raw Materials
Iron Ore
Copper Nickel Zinc Gold

Self Sufficient Energy Energy

Oil Gas Uranium Coal

There are vast reserves left. No longer to be consumed on a whim.

Develop a new industrial grid to meet a new set of requirements

Periodic external input Long periods of dormancy Simplified tech output

Paradigm 3

Paradigm 3 Self Sufficient Industrial

Will function like a self sufficient community village
Each industrial unit will support others to generate a final product The whole is greater than the sum of the parts

All necessary components will be on the same physical site

From raw materials to delivery of final manufactured product

What is produced will be vastly simplified and to a different mandate Recycling and repurposing will be vital Based on trust around practical delivered capability Will need to be supported by a network of self sufficient communities

Money exchange in new industrial sector

Money may be replaced with useful physical goods

Industrial Manufacture Node would be Completely Self Sufficient

Recycled steel

Recycled Copper
Recycled Rubber

Small Scale Foundry

Furnace & Kiln

Clay Lime/Silica & Gypsum

People

Cement Factory Industrial Solar

Steel Ingots Copper Ingots Rubber Casting Bricks Mortar Power Source

Metal Casting Foundry

Medium Scale Machine Shop

Industrial Wind

Industrial Biomass

All located on the same physical site

Method of Transport to Installation Site

How I think all 3 paradigms will interact over a 20 year time frame

Current Paradigm

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2 Paradigm 1

Paradigm 2
Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2 Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2

Paradigm 3 Paradigm 2

Paradigm 3

Paradigm 2 Paradigm 4

Paradigm 2
Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2 Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2

The most difficult but significant task in front of us is a revolution in perception and a restructuring of social responsibility

You have a choice

Questions???

My wife and I in 40 years time

(its up to you to keep up)

Slides for Q&A

What to do when challenged to a debate

Accept your past without regret, handle your present with confidence and face your future without fear!

Energy Density of Oil

Put 1 litre of petrol in your car Drive it till it runs out Push car back to start point

At $15/hour 1 litre of petrol = $1981.20 1 litre of Petrol = 132 hours of hard labour

EROEI (The song and dance needed to get the energy)

Conventional Oil Tar Sands Oil Shale Oil Coal Conventional LNG gas Shale Gas Hydro Power Solar Power Wind Power Conventional Nuclear 12-18:1 3:1 Some Perspective 5:1 European medieval society EROEI was 50-80:1 Approx 1.5:1 10:1 6.5:1 Biogas 1.3:1 20-40:1 Bio-ethanol 1.3:1 2-8:1 18:1 5:1 including the energy cost of mining U (10:1 as quoted)

Quantity of Energy at Application

Current oil demand is 87.4 Mb/day or 31.9Gb a year This translates to a little under 62 GW of energy

The average coal power station outputs 650MW

The average gas power station outputs 550 MW The average Nuclear power station outputs 850MW The gigantic Three Gorges Dam hydro project in China outputs 18.2 GW

The new solar power stations being commissioned output 350MW

An offshore wind turbine on average outputs 3.6MW

So I year current demand for oil, could be replaced with:

191 coal fired power stations each year for 50 years
248 gas power stations each year for 50 years 354 industrial scale solar power stations each year for 50 years

146 nuclear power plants each year for 50 years

7 Three Gorges Dams projects each year for 50 years

34 400 off shore wind turbines each year for 50 years

Oil supply conventional and unconventional

Year 2012

Tar and oil sands have pushed back the peak of total oil supply back 6-7 years

There are resource depletion limits which heavily influence other processes in negative feed back loops

Oil Production Static

GFC

What Does All This Mean For The Energy Grid?

Peak oil means the node of petroleum energy supply is about to be disrupted All links in the network system supported by petroleum will be logistically traumatized

As it stands, any replacement energy is less dense per unit volume and requires extensive infrastructure to be built
This means the replacement network system will need to be less complex than the current one, once fully operational It will also take time for the network to reach full complexity

The same thing will happen in a few years for gas and in 10 years time for coal

Ore is shifted with diesel fuel (oil)

1 truck = 3400 donkey loads 255 tonne load capacity
Bingham: Would we cart 5000tph of rock for 10tph of copper (0.2% grade) without oil? Or run 66 000 donkey loads an hour..

200kg (?) load capacity

Not without its logistical problems

Escondida: 1/3 of total energy consumed is in haulage of ore from pit to plant

There comes a point when something has to give.

General form of the Energy-Size relationship

Hukki 1962

A decrease in metal grain size

Energy, kWh/t

A decrease in = plant final grind size P80

An exponential increase in power draw

We Use a lot of Energy

The demand end of the equation needs surgery

Non-renewable natural resource use

Humans like most other biological organisms use the highest quality, richest and easiest to obtain resources first. (Chris Martenson 2008)

Copper is a finite resource like any other

Global Cu production by principal geological deposit types

Forecast Historical

Everything has a cycle

(no really, who?)

The Five Stages of Collapse

1) Financial Collapse
Faith in business as usual is lost. The future no longer resembles the past. Financial institutions become insolvent, savings wiped out, access to capital lost

2)

Commercial Collapse
Faith that the market will fix it is lost. Retail crashes. Rolling shortages

3)
4) 5)

Political Collapse
Faith that the government will save us is lost.

Social Collapse
Faith that your people will take care of you is lost. Social institutions fail.

Cultural Collapse
Faith in humanity is lost. Families disband and compete for resources as individuals.

Network Analysis Reveals Super Entity of Global Corporate Control

In the first such analysis ever conducted, Swiss economic researchers have conducted a global network analysis of 43 000 of the most powerful transnational corporations (TNCs) drawn from a sample of 37 million economic actors in the Orbis database). The resulting TNC network produced a graph with 600,508 nodes and 1,006,987 ownership connections. Their results have revealed a core of 787 firms with control of 80% of this network, and a super entity comprised of 147 corporations that have a controlling interest in 40% of the networks TNCs. Transnational corporations form a giant bow-tie structure and that a large portion of control ows to a small tightly-knit core of nancial institutions.

Who actually owns these corporations?

Less than 1% of corporations controls 60% of entire revenue 21 hedge funds 147 corporations

True influence unknown

1318 corporations

Directly Controls 80% of entire network of corporations

37 million economic actors

Would this corporate entity do the right and ethical thing with regard to developing society on behalf of humanity at large?

Geopolitical negative Reinforcing Loop

The banking/financial sector claims to be eliminating risk, but what it's actually doing is perfecting the threats that will destroy the system from within. Another way to understand this is to look at what happened to home mortgages in the runup to the meltdown of 2008: the "safest" part of the financial sector ended up triggering the collapse of the entire pyramid of risk.

The Real Financial Structure

Corporate lobby groups

Credit Default Swaps & Derivatives

International Tax Havens

Interlocking Corporate Ownership

Corporate Law Maritime Law Questionable leadership

A system where a small group of insiders are protected and everyone else is drained

Outcome: Class Warfare

Fraud: manipulation of all public disclosures

Fiat Currencies

Fractional Reserve banking

Creation of unsustainable debt

Who really runs this world and are we really a democracy?

The is a reasonably serious campaign to discourage whistle-blowers

Real growth is dependant on energy and real resources

Price of oil to make oil exploration economic Approx. - $USD 100/barrel

The End of Growth (R. Heinberg 2012)

Price of oil above which economic growth is very difficult Approx. - $USD 100/barrel

Club of Rome 1972

Conclusions from Limits to Growth (as briefed to CFR 1972)

The basic behavior mode of the world system is exponential growth of population and capital followed by collapse

Application of technology to the apparent problem of resource depletion or pollution or food shortages has no impact on the essential problem of exponential growth. Population crisis & crash can be postponed but not indefinitely
Unconventional solution exponentially growing population needed

But corporate culture must grow to survive

Current business culture must expand and show a profit If a business doesnt show a profit of 5-10%, financial investment is withdrawn and sent else where Most businesses are not financially self sufficient and depend on investment to operate The need for growth is a key KPI for survival Most businesses are armpit deep in debt Its getting increasingly difficult to grow without going further into debt

So what do we do?

What kind of world do we want to live in

Who are we?

Certain behaviours have got to go

Who to trust?

Learn discernment in character judgement

Deforestation of Borneo over the last few decades

An island of trash twice the size of Texas floats in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, circulated by the currents of the North Pacific Gyre. The trash, which is mostly made up of plastic debris, floats as deep as 30 feet below the

Deep Water Horizon

Deep Water Horizon

For a short time, the global Gulf Stream was cut

Real time satellite data maps of the Gulf of Mexico: Real time surface height maps (above) and sea suface velocity maps (below) starting April 22nd 2010 until June 12th 2010 processed by CCAR and checked at

For a short time, the global Gulf Stream was cut

A theory has been put forward that this single incident has disrupted the global Global Conveyor Belt Stream or Loop Stream ocean current, where such a large volume of oil (different density to water) still sits below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico.

Released by US Navy

Polar Vortex Structures

A new weather structure, last seen a few hundred years ago in the little ice age

Weather in the Northern Hemisphere has been really cold for the last few years

Warm water is no longer being transported to Northern Europe at the same rate as before. London traditionally has relative mild winters, where Canada to the west and Moscow to the east (at the same latitude) are known for harsh winters of temperatures of -40C. The British Isles and Northern Europe have had very cold winters for the last few years.

Fukashima the gift that keeps on giving

Dec 23 2013

Gulf of Mexico oil spill 2010

Fukashima nuclear meltdown 2011

It doesnt have to be this way

For each bushel of wheat sent to market, 0.8 cubic meters of soil is made infertile. Natural habitats are destroyed. Intimately dependant on petroleum products. Employs an unstainable economies of scale.

The use of GMOs has the potential to devastate whole regions of the food chain.

Not only is this not very good for the health of these chickens

But the sheer volume of grain required to feed these animals and the petroleum products needed to run this fragile network are staggering

Not only is this not very good for the health of these livestock

But the sheer volume of grain required to feed these animals and the petroleum products needed to run this fragile network are staggering

All of our current efforts are pushing in the wrong direction and are ultimately irrelevant!!!!

The push for growth on all fronts must come crashing to a stop in a finite system eventually

Why was this allowed to happen?

our current developed culture

Because they could We were convinced it was OK

And we never understood the true consequences

Expecting corporate culture to act for the greater good is inappropriate

If it incurs a profit loss

Or threatens their business model Once survival becomes an issue

Never try to teach a pig to sing

You waste your time and you upset the pig

You cannot just tell someone what is happening that might change their world. They have to see it for themselves then seek knowledge on their own

The best laid plans are still vulnerable to the random chaos

Situation awareness Flexibility Capability Resilience

The Auxiliary Novelty Bridge Club Reassembles