Flood Risk to London: London suffers from: Flooding 700,000 properties at risk, built up, heavy rainfall and

nd lots of surface runoff causes floods. As well as fluvial and tidal flooding along the Thames. Pandemic Flu A virus which people have little existing immunity too. Can spread and become an international problem. Storms and Gales strong winds damage buildings and power lines, disruption to transport systems and national services. (The Great storm of 1987 winds up to 122mph for 4 consecutive hours. 2 billion in insurance) Transport accident 249 miles of London Underground which carries 1 billion people a year. Risk of train derailment. Utility failure National power loses, piped water, gas and telecommunications. Cold weather and Snow Causes transport disruption and health impacts. Terrorism July 2005 bombings Flooding Nature: Hydro-meteorological Past events: July 2007: o Parts of south London were hard-hit on 20 July. o Most of the London Underground suffered severe delays, many roads were forced to close and the overground rail network struggled to cope with the evening rush hour. o Heavy rain and flash floods also led to 141 flights in and out of Heathrow Airport being cancelled that day. Likelihood/Potential severity: The impact of floods may also worsen because new developments are planned within the floodplain increasing the number of people and properties potentially at risk. 91 per cent of new homes and 1 million m2 of commercial property proposed for London Thames Gateway are likely to be located in the floodplain The protected area already contains nearly half a million properties and includes eight power stations, 400 schools, 16 hospitals and many underground and railway stations Without flood defences, 15 per cent of Londons homes would suffer a 0.1 per cent chance of tidal flooding each year, a percentage that would increase as sea level rises Flooding causes risk and disruption to peoples lives and the damage takes substantial amounts of money to repair. For example, the floods across Britain in 2000 caused by heavy rainfall were estimated to have caused 1.4 billion in damages. The historic pattern of building in the Thames floodplain is likely to continue due to land values in and around London and the scarcity of alternative sites. The number of people living in the floodplain is also expected to increase in east London because sites potentially at flood risk,

which were previously industrial, are being developed to include residential buildings.

Is it linked with Climate Change? The likelihood of a tidal flood is increasing because sea level is rising due to a number of factors: o Tidal and fluvial flooding are also predicted to increase as a result of climate change. o According to the recent Association of British Insurers (ABI) report, climate change could increase fluvial and coastal flood risk by a factor of 8 to 12 times. By the 2080s, winters will become wetter by up to 30 per cent, heavy winter rainfall could occur twice as frequently, and the number of storms each winter crossing the UK could increase from five (the 1961-90 average) to eight. Relative sea level in the Thames Estuary will continue to rise, and will be between 26 and 86cm by the 2080s with extreme sea levels experienced more frequently. Climate change will bring wetter winters with more extreme downpours, rising sea levels and higher tidal surges. All of which increases flood risk for London significantly. Sea levels are set to rise by a metre by 2100. London is already vulnerable to flooding. Some 15% of London lies on river floodplains and within this area lies much of the infrastructure we rely on day to day and in emergencies 49 railway stations, 75 underground stations and 10 hospitals. Around 680,000 London properties are at risk of surface water flooding, including properties in some of the poorest neighbourhoods.

The London Plan provides: The land use policy basis for assessing flood risk and in particular promotes: greater emphasis on flood resilience sustainable drainage techniques increased coordination between land use planning and emergency planning. A substantial part of London is built on the floodplain of the Thames and its tributaries and is prevented from flooding by a complex system of flood defences. There are flood defence measures in place against two major kinds of flooding

 Tidal flooding occurs when high tide and storm surges coincide and fluvial flooding occurs when rivers overflow due to high or intense rainfall. Heat-waves Nature: Hydro-meteorological Past events: Summer 2003 o 600 Londoners died o Differences of up to 10C between city and rural temperatures were measured o UK's highest recorded temperature 38.5 C (101.3 F) at Faversham in Kent on 10 August Summer 2013 o May have killed about 760 people (650 heat-related deaths) o Affinity Water Ltd. said peak demand has increased by as much as 27% o Temperature reached 32C (89.6 degrees Fahrenheit) Likelihood/Potential severity: Anticipated temperature rise due to the urban heat island effect that London is especially vulnerable to By the middle of this century summer temperatures of 30C could be the norm with London having a climate similar to that of New York, Rome or Madrid of today Rising temperatures will increase the need for air conditioning inside buildings, tubes and buses simply adding to the problem due to increased use of fuels to generate the electricity It is true that a reduction in the need to heat property would offset this slightly, but it is looking increasingly likely that a fundamental new approach in the way that buildings are designed (and where they should be built) is going to be needed Hotter, drier summers might be great for the tourism industry and kids on their school holidays, but will have detrimental effects on water resources and air quality Is it linked with Climate Change? Research has shown that both summer heat island intensity and frequency are increasing as climate changes The most noticeable and uncomfortable effect of this would be on nighttime temperatures Summers as hot as 2003 could happen every other year by the year 2050 as a result of climate change due to human activities Droughts Hydro meteroligcal disaster

RISK: we already take more water out of the environment than it can sustain. In an average current year, supply and demand pretty much balance out. But in a dry year, Thames Water forecasts that current demand would be 80Ml/d greater than available supply. Climate change = more frequent and severe dry seasons Londons growing population, changing demographics and hotter summers will increase the demand for water, while drier summers will reduce supply. CASE STUDY London and the Southeast are currently experiencing a drought due to two years of below average rain. The past two winters have been especially dry, and it is winter rainfall that is vital to refilling our water supplies for the next year. Groundwater levels are lower than they were during the last serious drought (1976). Three of Londons four water companies (Thames Water, Sutton & East Surrey, Veolia Water Central) are implementing a Temporary Uses Ban from midnight on 04 April 2012. The aim of the ban is to encourage people not to waste water. The GLA has been working with the partners to improve the water and energy efficiency of Londoners homes through the RE:NEW programme. To date 61,500 homes have been improved through this scheme. The average retrofit package saves each home over 35,000 litres of water per year. The GLA is responsible for Trafalgar Square and is working with Thames Water to find alternative sources of water to refill the fountains in the square so they can continue to be used through the summer whilst complying with the ban.

Tornadoes Case study A number of houses were so badly damaged by the tornado that struck north-west London this morning they may have to be demolished, it has emerged. At least six people were injured and hundreds left homeless when the tornado swept through Kensal Rise at around 11am, tearing the roofs and walls off houses. Eyewitnesses said it lasted for up to 40 seconds; one man said he heard a sound "like standing behind a jetliner".

A spokesman for the London ambulance service said one man in his 50s was taken to Central Middlesex hospital with a head injury, while five other people were treated at the scene for minor injuries and shock.

The tornado forced the evacuation of Manor primary school, also in Chamberlayne Road. The school's roof was damaged and the roof of its swimming pool ripped off, but there were no reports of injuries. Earthquakes o Risk

Often underappreciated Risk is far greater than usually realised Unlikely to be hit by sever earthquakes, such as those seen elsewhere London should be prepared for earthquakes that produce shaking Magnitude 5 earthquake will occur on average every 100 years in the UK Londons clay soils tend to amplify any shaking Londons population is 50 times greater than in 1850, so effects will be greater o Example 1931 Biggest earthquake in UK occurred in North Sea Off Yorkshire Coast Magnitude 6.1 Shook East of England, right down to London 1850 Tremor centred over the Dover Straits Damaged large numbers of buildings in London Killed two people 2008 Biggest earthquake in 25 years 5.2 magnitude 10 second long tremor