Cambridge Manufacturing Futures: Linking Futurists' and Strategic Planners' Methods and Content

Aims
To develop a tool for capturing in a common format, assessing and interpreting futures information, and to understand how insights on futures are embedded in strategic planning processes in manufacturing companies. This project is one of the key activities at the newly established Futures Group under the Centre for Economics and Policy at the Institute for Manufacturing. IFP is designed to tackle these issues. It aims to:

Capture international views on the factors and trends influencing manufacturing industry Develop tools and techniques for the assessment and interpretation of futures information Provide opportunities for discussion and debate on the implications of futures information Enable participants to embed views of the future in their strategic planning processes

Background
Where are technology, society, economy and markets going? What would the manufacturing world look like in 5, 10 and 20 years? How can the best information be obtained and interpreted effectively? These are some questions managers in manufacturing companies have to answer as they make strategic decisions and plan for the future. Much preparatory work has been done. Early consultations with industrial partners highlighted the need for more comprehensive and coherent approach to capturing and making full use of futures information. Two major international conferences in March 2000, and October 2002 attracted representatives from more than 15 countries and all agreed that much remain to be done to provide a more systematic approach.

The diagram shows the structure and major activities of the Futures Group

Research Approach
The project is divided into 3 phases:

Phase 1: Framework Development (Oct 00 - Oct 01)

A framework will be developed, drawing on the following sources:

Literature in the fields of Futures Studies, Foresight, Strategic Management, Decision Science and Risk Management National Foresight programmes (through desk research and interviews) Activities of organisations, which provide futures information (through desk research) Strategic planning and futures studies practices in manufacturing companies (through interviews)

Phase 2: Framework Refinement (Oct 01 - Mar 03)

The preliminary framework is refined by studying a Eureka factory project, Informan 2000+. This 3-year project aims to structure foresight information in a common format to facilitates analysis and transfer between countries and to various user groups such as companies and trade organisations. Informan is completed in March 2003.

Phase 3: Framework Assessment (March 03 - Oct 03)

Finally, the framework will be assessed through interviews with practitioners in manufacturing firms, leading to guidelines for good practice illustrated with examples.

Current state:
The review of relevant literature, national Foresight programmes and activities of futures organisations, the following issues are highlighted:

Available futures information from Foresight programmes and other sources tend to be at a different level of analysis and timeframe than the inputs to strategic planning There are a wide range of tools and methods of futures studies, but only a few are mentioned in strategic management literature It is not clear in the models of strategic planning processes, where and how the methods and content of futures studies should be integrated.

The review of strategic planning and futures studies practices in real companies identifies the following needs:

More systematic approach in understanding long term futures (including interactions of trends and their impacts on industry and business) and integrating them into strategic planning process Futures information which is relevant, high quality, has international perspective, and from various different sectors

Deliverables:
The main research output is the framework. However, other deliverables include

A review of tools and methods in strategic planning and futures studies Key sources of futures information Key trends and factors affecting manufacturing Futures-oriented strategic planning process