March 05, 2014

SECTOR RESEARCH | Singapore

Office REITs
Big supply leaves rents in limbo

The key to rental rate increase in the Central Area lies in continued hiring in the financial, insurance and business services sectors. But an uptick in headcount is unlikely this year, considering sub-trend GDP growth, sluggish financial services activities, lower hiring expectations and tightening labour market Short-term reprieve next year but ample supply still looms. With vacancy rate tipped to rise in 2016, we see modest rental upticks of 3%/5% in FY14/15 before sliding 2% in 2016.

NEUTRAL
Analyst Ong Kian Lin (65) 6432 1470

(unchanged)

ongkianlin@maybank-ke.com.sg

Whats New
The office REITs segment was recently abuzz with renewed interest from investors after the Urban Redevelopment Authoritys Office Property Rental Index recorded a ~1% YoY increase in rent for both the Central Area and Central Region in both 3Q13 and 4Q13. The uptick came on the back of four consecutive quarters of YoY decline since 3Q12.

Whats Our View

Abundant supply a nagging worry. While we anticipate a reprieve from new office space next year, the fact remains that there is still ample supply an estimated 6.4m sq ft of net leasable area in the Central Business District (CBD) is expected to come on-stream in 2014-2017. With the labour market moderating and overall hiring expectations on the wane, we do not think headcount numbers will jump sharply this year, especially considering the sub-trend GDP growth and financial services activities remaining sluggish. We estimate net absorption during this year and next would balance out previous outstanding (~4.8m sq ft in the Central Area) and new incoming supplies, leading to an occupancy rate of 90-92% in the Downtown Core (4Q13: 90%). However, in 2016-2017, occupancy rate could slide to 88-90% as ~5m sq ft of new office space becomes available. Maintain Neutral. With vacancy rate tipped to creep up only in 2016, we see rents rising a modest 3% in 2014 and 5% in 2015 before declining 2% in 2016. We maintain our Neutral stance on the office REITs sector, with HOLD calls on CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT, TP SGD1.50) and Keppel REIT (KREIT, TP SGD1.25). The key downside risk to our call is an abrupt capital flight from Asia. Liquidity outflows will not only hit asset prices sorely, but may also lead to a cutback in headcount for the financial, insurance and business sectors, causing a dent in rentals.
MBKE Office REITs coverage
Rating

Price* (SGD)

TP (SGD)

Upside (%)

DPU yield (%) FY14E FY15E

Price/DPU (x) FY14E FY15E

P/BV (x) FY14E FY15E

CapitaCommercial Trust HOLD 1.465 1.50 Keppel REIT HOLD 1.175 1.25 *Closing price as of 28 Feb 2014. Source: Maybank KE, Bloomberg

2.4 6.4

5.5 6.8

5.9 6.8

18 15

17 15

0.88 0.94

0.90 0.96

SEE PAGE 14 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Singapore Office REITs

Key charts at a glance

Figure 1: Known office supply pipeline in CBD
6.4m sq ft of space to come on-stream in 2014-2017 (or 1.62m sq ft pa)
(m sqft) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2014 3% 2015 2016 2017 20% 18%

Figure 2: New supply as a percentage of Central Area stock

(%) 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2014 0.3 2015 2016 2017 2.6 2.2 Proportion of Centra Area stock 7.6

CBD Office Space Pipeline [LHS] Proportion of New Supply [RHS]

59%

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Source: CBRE

Source: CBRE, URA

Figure 3: Downtown Core annual net supply and absorption vs occupancy rate
4.4 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 (0.4) (0.8) (1.2) (1.6) (Net absorption 0.97m sq ft from 2009-2013
Net Supply ('m sqft) Net Absorption ('m sqft) Occupancy (%) [RHS]

Figure 4: 84% correlation between Median Cat 1 signed rents and Downtown Core occupancy
Median Cat 1 rental signed
14.0 12.0

100 95 90
10.0

Occupancy

96.0 94.0 92.0 90.0 88.0 86.0 84.0 82.0

85 80
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

8.0 6.0 4.0

75 70

04Q1 04Q4 05Q3 06Q2 07Q1 07Q4 08Q3 09Q2 10Q1 10Q4 11Q3 12Q2 13Q1 13Q4

80.0

Source: URA, CBRE, Maybank KE

Source: URA

Figure 5: Office Property Price Index

Office prices have surpassed the 2000 and 2008 peak levels
Islandwide 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 30 10 75Q4 80Q3 85Q2 90Q1 Central Area (#2) Fringe Area (#3)

Figure 6: Office Property Rental Index

Office rentals have moderated but still below the 2008 peak
Central Area Central Region Fringe Area 220 210 URA Office Property Rental Index (4Q98=100) 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 (4Q98=100) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1987Q2 89Q1 90Q4 92Q3 94Q2 96Q1 97Q4 99Q3 01Q2 03Q1 04Q4 06Q3 08Q2 10Q1 11Q4 13Q3

URA Office Property Price Index (4Q98=100)

(4Q98=100)
94Q4 99Q3 04Q2 09Q1 13Q4

Source: URA

Source: URA

March 05, 2014

Singapore Office REITs

An overview

Rents edge up, optimism rekindled. The office REITs segment was recently abuzz with renewed interest from investors after the Urban Redevelopment Authoritys (URA) Office Property Rental Index recorded a ~1% YoY rise in rent for the Central Area and Central Region in both 3Q13 and 4Q13. The uptick came after four consecutive quarters of YoY decline.
Figure 7: Office property price growth (YoY %)
Property price growth has slowed since 2Q13 when QE taper talk began

Figure 8: Office rental growth (YoY %)

Office rentals have started to turn around since 3Q13

Source: URA

Source: URA

Temporary shortage boosts near-term optimism. We attribute the rental rate rise to slower office completions in 2013, with Asia Square Tower 2 (780k sq ft of net lettable area or NLA) being the only development in the Central Area to obtain a Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) in 3Q13. This came almost more than a year after the last major Grade A office buildings were completed, namely, One Raffles Place Tower 2 (TOP: 2Q-3Q12) and Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) Tower 3 (TOP: 1Q12). Since early 2013, office landlords have taken advantage of the relative lack of new supply to hold rents steady, with leasing activities for the most part driven by smallspace occupiers from the energy and commodities, professional services and IT sectors. Demand from large-space occupiers was more muted as the financial sector kept a tight lid on costs. This in turn helped Grade A completions such as MBFC Tower 3 and Asia Square Tower 1 to progressively fill up to over 90% occupancy rate. Booking.com, for example, took up 45k sq ft recently at MBFC Tower 3. Asia Square Tower 2 is also 60% filled to date, with Mizuho Bank and Allianz as the anchor tenants alongside other tenants such as Swiss Re, National Australia Bank and Nikko Asset Management. One Raffles Place Tower 2 also achieved ~80% occupancy as of 4Q13. Figure 10 illustrates the existing tenants of these completed Grade A office developments.

March 05, 2014

Singapore Office REITs

Figure 9: Recent leasing transactions

Property Asia Square Tower 2 Asia Square Tower 2 Asia Square Tower 2 Asia Square Tower 2 Marina Bay Financial Tower 3 Marina Bay Financial Tower 3 Marina Bay Financial Tower 3 South Beach Tower PWC Building Ocean Financial Centre Ocean Financial Centre Ocean Financial Centre Millenia Tower Millenia Tower Millenia Tower Millenia Tower Keppel Bay Towers Wheelock Place 80 Robinson Road Location Marina Bay Marina Bay Marina Bay Marina Bay Marina Bay Marina Bay Marina Bay Beach Road Raffles Place Raffles Place Raffles Place Raffles Place Temasek Avenue Temasek Avenue Temasek Avenue Temasek Avenue Harbourfront Avenue Orchard Road Raffles Place Tenant Mizuho Bank National Australia Bank PT Bank Mandiri Citco Booking.com Gunvor Nabarro Rabobank Tripadvisor Olswang Asia Linc Energy BGC Group Palo Alto Networks Aisling Analytics Barry Callebaut Cocoa Asia Dymon Asia Capital Swatch T. Rowe Price Havas Worldwide Remarks Leased ~100k sq ft. Shifted from Capital Tower Shifted from Suntec City Shifted from Springleaf Tower Leased ~11k sq ft Leased ~45k sq ft Leased ~22k sq ft. Shifted from Maybank Tower Shifted from Singapore Land Tower Leased ~30k sq ft. Moving from 77 Robinson Road

Moving Moving Moving Moving Moving Moving

from Suntec City from Suntec City from Suntec City from Suntec City from Wheelock Place from Paragon

Source: Corporate Locations, The Business Times, The Straits Times

Figure 10: Existing tenants at selected properties as of 17 Feb 2014 site inspection
MBFC Tower 3 (~90%) Aryzta Asia Pacific Ashurst LLP Bank of Montreal Berge Bulk Booking.com Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd Clifford Capital Pte Ltd Clifford Chance Clyde & Co Clasis Singapore Pte Ltd Credit Industriel et Commercial DBS Endurance Specialty Insurance Ltd Enso Singapore Pte Ltd Evercore Asia (Singapore) Pte Ltd Fitness First Platinum Geo Energy Resources Limited Goldin Group (Investment) Pte Ltd Gunvor Singapore Pte Ltd Kimberly-Clark Asia Pacific LEGO Singapore Pte Ltd Louis Dreyfus Commodities Asia Pte Ltd Lynx Energy Group M&A Development Pte Ltd McGraw Hill Financial Mead Johnson Nutrition (Asia Pacific) Pte Ltd Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy LLP Nabarro LLP Pavilion Energy Pte Ltd/Pavilion Gas Pte Ltd Regus Management Singapore Pte Ltd Rio Tinto Group Simmons & Simmons/TMI Associates Software AG The Islamic Bank of Asia The Norinchukin Bank, Singapore Branch Trammo Pte Ltd/Trammo Navigation Pte Ltd UnionPay International, SEA Wong Partnership LLP Woori I&S Asia Pte Ltd/Woori Absolute Yamai Trade Pte Ltd Asia Square Tower 1 (~90%) ADS Securities Asia Square Management Office Asia Square Show Suite Allied World Assurance Amobee Bank J. Safra Sarasin Bank Julius Baer BG Group BlackRock Bumi Hasta Mukti CTBC Bank Citi China CITIC Bank International Dimensional Fund Advisors E.SUN Bank Edrington Singapore Fidelity Worldwide Investment Flow Traders Asia GDF SUEZ Trading General Atlantic GMG Global Google Asia Pacific Hontop Energy IHS ILFC Intermediate Capital Group Jump Trading Pacific KKR Lloyd's Asia Liberty Commodities Asia Materials Industry And Trade Marsh & McLennan Companies Marex Spectron Asia MP & Silva OpenLink Financial Pure Group Putnam Investments Raffles Medical Regus Reynolds Porter Chamberlain LLP Re Suisse Financial Services Royal Bank of Canada Sinochem International Source Profit SWIFT Swiss National Bank Wanxiang Resources White & Case Wirecard Asia XL Group Asia Square Tower 2 (~60%) Allianz Euler Hermes Citco Gateway JustOffice TransRe Gulfstream Mercuria Energy Trading Mizuho Bank Mundipharmal Pte Limited National Australia Bank Platinum Equity Advisers International PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Mandiri Investment Management PT Mandiri Sekuritas Scor Services Asia-Pacific Swiss Re ORP Tower 2 (~80%) ADC International Far East Pte Ltd Aegis Media Asia Pacific Akamai Technologies APJ Pte Ltd Akamai Technologies Singapore Pte Ltd AXA Asia Regional Centre Pte Ltd BDO Unibank Inc Representative Office Borrelli Walsh Pte Ltd Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CCI China Merchants Bank Co Ltd Christie Corporate Services Pte Ltd CHS Singapore Trading Company Pte Ltd Chubu Energy Trading Singapore Pte Ltd Dolphin Capital Asia Pte Ltd EDF Trading Singapore Pte Ltd Global Ore Pte Ltd iProspect Kumiai Navigation (Pte) Ltd Majestic Rock Resources Group Pte Ltd Michael Page International Pte Ltd Miller Insurance Services (Singapore) Pte Ltd Mubadala Petroleum (SE Asia) Ltd Phorm Singapore Pte Ltd Posterscope Pramerica Real Estate Investors (Asia) Pte Ltd Pramerica Financial Asia HQ Pte Ltd Prologis Singapore Pte Ltd Regus Business Centres Rock Capital Management Pte Ltd Smile Inc Dental Surgeons Pte Ltd Triumph Global Pte Ltd Tshin Boto Pte Ltd TUS Isobar Uttam International Pte Ltd Vizeum Ocean Financial Centre (100%) ABN AMRO Bank Addleshaw Goddard LLP Allegro Development Asia Pte Ltd Anglo American Australia and New Zealand Banking Grp Bestor Investers Pte Ltd BNP Paribas CBRE Global Investors (Singapore) Pte Ltd CBRE GMM Asia Pacific Fund Management Consulate of the Republic of Cyprus Dentons UKMEA LLP Digital Realty Dolby Singapore Pte Ltd Drew & Napier LLC Drewcorp Services Pte Ltd DT Group Enerfo Pte Ltd Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer Fundsupermart.com Gazprom Marketing & Trading Singapore Hanergy Global Investment and Sales iFast Corporation Pte Ltd iFast Financial Pte Ltd Impala NEMS K&L Gates LLP Klako Group Lee & Lee (Dental Surgeons) Pte Ltd Looi Teck Kheong (A Law Firm) Loomis Sayles Investments Asia Pte Ltd Luxe Real Estate Mandiri Investment Management Pte Ltd Matson, Driscoll & Damico Pte Ltd Neuberger Berman Sinapore Pte Ltd NGAM Singapore Nigel Frank International Ocean Properties LLP Oiswang Asia LLP OSK|DMG DMG & Partners Securities OSK International Asset Management Reed Smith Pte Ltd SBICAPS Spencer Stuart Squire Sanders (Singapore) LLP Stamford Law Stone Chambers Singapore Su E-min & Co (Singapore) Pte The Abraaj Group The Croesus Group The Executive Centre Trafigura Pte Ltd True Yoga V-cube Global Services Pte Ltd Verdant Capital Management Pte Ltd Verizon Wexford Connelly Pte Ltd YKVN LLP Zafferano

Note: Number within brackets denotes occupancy rate Source: Maybank KE, Companies

March 05, 2014

Singapore Office REITs

But main demand drivers sorely lacking. Based on the statistics released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapores GDP grew 4.1% YoY in 2013 and is expected to remain on track at 2-4% in 2014. Business expectations improved marginally between 4Q12 and 3Q13 1 , giving spot rents a fillip in 2013. Nonetheless, local and regional economic growth remains challenging and expectations for 2014 may have to be moderated, in our view. The latest 4Q13 Business Expectations Survey, conducted by the Ministry of Trade and Industry from Sep 2013 to mid-Oct 2013, painted a deterioration in business outlook for Jan-Jun 2014. It showed that a net weighted balance of 1% of firms is optimistic about business prospects for the six-month period ending Jun 2014. The magnitude of the positive net weighted balance recorded for Jan-Jun 2014 is considerably lower than for Oct 2013-Mar 2014 in the previous quarters survey when the positive net weighted balance was 8%. Who holds the key to rental rate increase? To determine the drivers for office demand and hence, rental growth, we examine Singapores GDP growth figures for the past two decades and job creation statistics at key service industries such as information and communications, real estate services, financial and insurance, and business services. Our findings show that the correlation with GDP growth is not as robust as with headcount changes in employment services. One reason could be the GDP numbers are not as direct and more often than not skewed by the volatile biomedical output. In particular, our study shows that rental growth in the Central Area exhibits a strong relationship with headcount additions in both the financial and insurance services and business services, with a whopping 76% correlation based on their combined employee net additions between 1Q04 and 4Q13. The impact from the information and communications, real estate, professional and administrative and support services remains modest at best, suggesting that the financial and business services sectors remain key in uplifting rentals in the Central Area.
Figure 11: Central Area rental growth has only a 19% correlation with GDP growth
(%) 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 (2) (4) (6) (8) (10) (12) GDP Growth YoY [LHS] Rent Growth YoY [RHS] (%) 64 56 48 40 32 24 16 8 0 (8) (16) (24) (32)

Figure 12: but a 76% correlation with headcount growth in the financial, insurance and business services sectors
Employment Additions in Financial, Insurance and Business Services Rent Growth YoY (%) [RHS]

2001Q1

2002Q1

2003Q1

2004Q1

2005Q1

2006Q1

2007Q1

2008Q1

2009Q1

2010Q1

2011Q1

2012Q1

Source: URA, CEIC

1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1

Source: URA, CEIC

The net weighted balance of firms in the service sector expecting positive business prospects in the next six months increased progressively from +1% in 4Q12 to +8% in 3Q13.
5

March 05, 2014

2013Q1

80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 (10,000) (20,000) (30,000) (40,000)

(%) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (10) (20) (30) (40)

Singapore Office REITs

Figure 13: Correlation of Central Area YoY rental growth vis--vis different service sectors
Employee net additions Overall Services Sector Information & Communications Financial & Insurance Services Business Services Financial, Insurance and Biz Services Real Estate Services Administrative & Support Services Community, Social & Personal Services Note: The correlation data is derived based on data from 1Q04 to 4Q13 Source: URA, CEIC Correlation with rental growth (% YoY) 68 26 66 68 76 8 -18 17

Hiring expectations on the wane

Intention to hire decrease. According to leading recruitment agency Hudson, Singapores labour market is expected to tighten this year with overall hiring expectations down in 1Q14 2 compared with the previous quarter. It marks the second consecutive quarter of a decrease in intention to hire for almost all industries. The exception was the banking and financial services sector, which has seen a 7.4ppt QoQ increase in positive hiring intentions to 50%. Positive hiring intentions in this sector have risen for over three consecutive quarters, thanks to increasing confidence in Singapore as an offshore trading centre for the Chinese yuan following the two countries decision to trade currencies directly. Hudson sees heightened demand for risk and compliance professionals, especially those with the right skill set as well as local market knowledge and experience. Nonetheless, the recent announcements by Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland to cut their global workforce by 12,000 and 30,000, respectively, continue to cast a shadow on hiring prospects for investment banking professionals. We note that net job creations in the financial and insurance services sector bottomed out in 2Q13, with the numbers still below the 2007 and 2010 peak levels. Nonetheless, we do not expect a sharp rise in employment figures, given the sub-trend GDP growth and unlikely pick-up in financial services activities in 2014. On the other hand, a bigger slip-up, one that many had feared would follow in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, did not appear on the cards as well, with stronger growth in the West and China pushing ahead with its structural reforms. Office rentals thus may see modest, if not steady growth this year on account of subdued headcount additions.

Employment Trends 1Q2014: Hiring expectations in Singapore edged down 4.3ppts, with 39.5% of employers intending to increase headcount this quarter. Expectations to decrease headcount have gone up 2.9ppts to 7.3%.
6

March 05, 2014

Singapore Office REITs

Figure 14: Quarterly net employee additions in financial and insurance services
Employment Net additions to the Financial & Insurance service sector 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
04Q1 04Q3 05Q1 05Q3 06Q1 06Q3 07Q1 07Q3 08Q1 08Q3 09Q1 09Q3 10Q1 10Q3 11Q1 11Q3 12Q1 12Q3 13Q1

(2,000) (4,000)

Source: CEIC

Supply dynamics poised to change

Near-term positive. In our view, this year and next may be a good, albeit short-lived, period for the office market in terms of supply. The dynamics would change when the 700,000-sq-ft CapitaGreen and 527,000-sq-ft South Beach Development are completed in 4Q14. And when both developments commence active marketing nearer their TOP date, it may lead to further downward pressure on office rentals.
Figure 15: Known office supply pipeline in the Central Business District
(m sqft) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2014 3% 2015 2016 2017 20% 18% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Source: URA

Figure 16: URAs demarcation of Central Area/Central Region and Fringe Area

CBD Office Space Pipeline [LHS] Proportion of New Supply [RHS]

59%

Source: CBRE

Competition from decentralised developments. Also not to be ignored is the impact of office supply from Outside Central Region (OCR) on CBD rentals. We cannot rule out the possibility of high-quality decentralised developments like Westgate Tower in Jurong, Mapletree Business City Phase 1 at Pasir Panjang Road and The Metropolis at Buona Vista drawing tenants (albeit smaller floor-plate at times) away from CBD office buildings. Already, Mapletree Business City has attracted big names such as Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Credit Agricole, Unilever, Nike, Toshiba and Samsung Asia, while potential tenants at The Metropolis include Shell, NOL, Procter & Gamble and GlaxoSmithKline. And within the CBD, a hollowing out could occur when tenants exit buildings earmarked for en bloc redevelopment (possibly The Arcade at Raffles Place in the near term), sparking further substantial declines in Grade B office rentals. Figure 17 highlights some of the decentralised developments scheduled for completion in 2014-2017.

March 05, 2014

13Q3

Singapore Office REITs

Figure 17: New completions (including relevant business parks) in Outside Central Region in 2014-2017
Expected completion Proposed project 2014 Westgate Tower Paya Lebar Square 2014 2015 Galaxis 2015 Futuris/ Synthesis/ Kinesis 2015 Centropod @ Changi Mediapolis 2015 2016 Mapletree Business City Phase 2 2017 Site at Venture Avenue Total Source: CBRE, Maybank KE Developer CapitaLand Guthrie, Siong Feng Development and Sun Venture Commercial Ascendas Fusion 5 Pte Ltd JTC Corporation Roxy Pacific Ascendas Land (Singapore) Mapletree Sim Lian Location Western suburbs Paya Lebar Road West One North Changi Road One North (Portsdown Road, Mediapolis) Alexandra Road Jurong Gateway NLA (sq ft) 306,400 430,000 43,055 99,000 53,700 584,270 1,120,000 500,000 3,136,425

Medium term: Still limited upside for office REITS. Currently, the known pipeline of Central Area private office space in 2014-2017 consists of 6.4m sq ft of net lettable area, which is a significant 13% of the total private office stock in the Central Area as of 4Q13. This figure is almost identical to the ~6.8m sq ft of new completions which came on-stream in 2010-2013. We note that it took a good 3-4 years for office supply in the Downtown Core (including Downtown@Marina Bay) to be absorbed. With a similar onslaught in 2014-2017, we expect rentals to remain under pressure. In short, there appears to be limited upside for office REITS from a rental reversion perspective.
Figure 18: Office completions in the Central Area in 2010-2013 totalled ~6.8m sq ft
Completion date Project 2010 Marina Bay Financial Centre Towers 1-2 (Phase 1) 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 Total Source: CBRE, URA, Maybank KE Tokio Marine Centre 50 North Canal Road Ocean Financial Centre (OFC) OUE Bayfront Asia Square Tower 1 Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3 (Phase 2) Office at Upp Pickering Street 1 Raffles Place (Tower 2) Asia Square Tower 2 Developer/Owner Location Central Boulevard Development Marina Boulevard Pte Ltd TM Asia Insurance Maybank Keppel Land OUE MGPA McCallum Street North Bridge Road Collyer Quay Collyer Quay Occupancy (%) 100 NA 100 100 95.9 ~90 ~90 NA ~80 ~60 NLA (sq ft) 1,652,667 114,000 50,000 885,450 382,675 1,260,000 1,300,000 70,000 350,000 782,000 6,846,792

Marina View Central Boulevard Development Marina Boulevard Pte Ltd Hotel Plaza Property (Singapore) Upper Pickering Street Pte Ltd OUB Centre Ltd MGPA Raffles Place Marina View

March 05, 2014

Singapore Office REITs

Figure 19: Schedule of new office completions in the Central Area in 2014-2017
Expected completion Proposed project 1Q14 Orchardgateway (office component) 4Q14 CapitaGreen 4Q14 4Q15 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 Total Note: Red box denotes substantial NLA completions Source: CBRE, URA, Maybank KE South Beach Development PS 100 (strata titled) EON Shenton Marina One Duo Guoco Tower Redevelopment of International Factors Building and Robinson Towers V on Shenton Robinson Square (strata titled) Index - SBF Centre (strata titled) Oxley Tower Cecil Street/Telok Ayer Street Developer United Engineers CapitaLand, CCT and Mitsubishi Estate Asia CDL, IOI Far East Organization 70 Shenton Pte Ltd M+S Pte Ltd M+S Pte Ltd GuocoLand Tuan Sing UIC Land Oxley Holdings FEO Oxley Holdings F&N Location Orchard Road Raffles Place Beach Rd/City Hall Tanjong Pagar Shenton Way Marina Bay Beach Rd/City Hall Tanjong Pagar Robinson Road Shenton Way Robinson Road Robinson Road Robinson Road Tanjong Pagar NLA (sq ft) 37,000 700,000 527,450 70,650 101,045 1,880,000 570,000 850,000 215,280 290,000 38,642 353,480 111,439 720,000 6,464,986

On an annualised basis, annual net supply in the Downtown Core area over 2009-2013 averaged 1.2m sq ft while net absorption averaged 1.0m sq ft pa. With ~6m sq ft of new office space coming into the market over 2014-2017, this equates to approximately 1.6m sq ft of supply pa, hardly a trivial number in our view.
Figure 20: Average annual net supply and absorption for Downtown Core
Cumulative supply (m sq ft) 16.02 7.42 5.54 6.15 6.07 4.99 3.30 1.11 Cumulative absorption (m sq ft) 15.24 8.55 5.44 4.21 4.83 5.51 4.10 2.34 Avg annual supply (m sq ft) 0.76 0.67 0.79 1.02 1.21 1.25 1.10 0.55 Avg annual absorption (m sq ft) 0.73 0.78 0.78 0.70 0.97 1.38 1.37 1.17

1993-2013 2003-2013 2007-2013 2008-2013 2009-2013 2010-2013 2011-2013 2012-2013 Source: URA

There were only two occasions when average demand in the Downtown Core area exceeded 1.6 m sq ft pa in 2000 and 2011 (Figure 21). The first was due to a pick-up in demand following the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the second could be attributed to the attendant slack take-up post GFC. These two periods were then followed by years of diminishing demand as the previous outstanding supply was absorbed by the market. We do not expect annual demand in 2014 to surpass those levels, and the progressive supply (1.2m sq ft alone this year) and accompanying forward leasing activities (typically 6-9 months ahead of TOP) are also likely to put a lid on any significant rental upside.

March 05, 2014

Singapore Office REITs

Figure 21: Downtown Core annual net supply and absorption vs occupancy rate
(m sqft) 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

(Net absorption 0.97m sq ft from 2009-2013

Net Supply [LHS] Net Absorption [LHS] Occupancy (%) [RHS]

(%) 100

95

90

85

80
2017E

0.0 (0.4) (0.8) (1.2) (1.6)

75

70

Source: URA, CBRE, Maybank KE

Long term: More office space sprouting up. Based on the URA Draft Master Plan 2013 released last November, Marina Bay will offer at least another 1m sq m (10.7m sq ft) of office space within the Central Area in addition to the 4.6 m sq m (49.4m sq ft) already available. In particular, new office space will sprout up on the belt along Bayfront Avenue, which stretches from Marina Bay Sands to Marina Bay Station Square. We view this upcoming supply as an overhang on office REITs, diminishing the prospects for a sustained spike in office demand in the CBD area.

Lofty capital values likely to hold up

According to the URA, office prices in the Central Area have increased by 46% over 2010-2013 in the aftermath of the GFC and are currently 10.6% above the 2008 peak levels. But they still pale in comparison with prices in the industrial warehouse segment, which have shot up a whopping 115% over the same period and are currently 71% above the 2008 peak levels. Based on property consultancy CBREs records, cap rates of Grade A office space have also come off from a peak of 6.6% in 3Q08 to a trough of 3.71% in 1Q-3Q13 on the back of yield compression. Cap rates have bottomed out to 3.8% in 4Q13. We do not think there will be further compression and cap rates will remain at ~4% levels in 2014-2016.

March 05, 2014

10

Singapore Office REITs

Reiterate HOLD on CCT, KREIT. We see net absorption in 2014-2015 mostly balancing out previous outstanding and new incoming supplies, resulting in an occupancy rate of 90-92% for the Downtown Core area (4Q13: 90%). Come 2016-2017 however, we expect occupancy rate to slide to 88-90% as ~5m sq ft of new office space comes on-stream. With vacancy rate tipped to rise only in 2016, we see rents edging up a modest 3% in 2014 and 5% in 2015 before declining 2% in 2016. We also expect capital values to hold up at SGD2,424 psf in 2014 and SGD2,472 psf in 2015 (2013: SGD2,400 psf) before softening to SGD2,448 psf in 2016 with the onslaught of 3.84m sq ft of new office supply in that year. CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) and Keppel REIT (KREIT) have all their Singapore properties in the Central Area, amounting to, respectively, 2.9m sq ft and 2.4 m sq ft of attributable net leasable office area. In terms of AUM, the Singapore assets constitute 100% of CCTs and 88% of KREITs investment properties. (KREIT also has five Australian properties.) We reiterate our Neutral stance on the office REITs sector, with HOLD calls on CCT (TP SGD1.50) and KREIT (TP SGD1.25).
Figure 22: CCT breakdown of portfolio value
Twenty Anson 6% HSBC Building 6% Wilkie Edge 3% Bugis Village 1% Golden Shoe 2% CapitaGreen 8% Capital Tower 18%
MBFC Phase 1 22%

Investment theme for office REITs

Figure 23: KREIT breakdown of portfolio value

c

Raffles City 25%

One Raffles Quay 17%

Prudential Tower 7% Bugis Junction 7%

One George Street 13%

Six Battery Road 18%

Australian Properties 12%

Ocean Financial Centre 35%

Source: Company

Source: Company

Figure 24: Rental and capital value assumptions

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Category 1 rents(SGD psf/mth) 6.56 6.22 5.45 4.86 5.05 5.30 7.82 13.32 13.14 8.76 8.75 9.54 9.35 9.46 9.75 10.24 10.03 % change Capital value (SGD psf) % change Occupancy (%) Net yield (%) Source: Maybank KE, URA, CBRE 87.8 (5.2) (12.4) (10.9) 1,436 1,240 1,050 (13.6) (15.3) 88.1 83.1 980 (6.7) 80.4 4.0 0.0 82.4 4.9 2.0 86.6 47.5 70.2 (1.3) (33.3) (0.1) 9.0 18.2 86.1 4.1 (2.0) (7.7) 3.8 1.2 0.0 3.8 3.0 1.0 91.0 3.9 5.0 2.0 92.0 4.0 (2.0) (1.0) 90.0 4.0 980 1,000 1,500 3,100 2,600 1,550 2,200 2,600 2,400 2,400 2,424 2,472 2,448 50.0 106.7 (16.1) (40.4) 41.9 88.6 95.1 5.59 92.5 5.8 86.7 86.5 4.9 4.3 89.0 90.2

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Singapore Office REITs

Our view is premised on the assumption that the US Federal Reserve will continue to progressively taper its USD65b-a-month quantitative easing programme, completing the stimulus withdrawal by year-end, after another seven rounds of FOMC meetings in 2014. A sudden and complete withdrawal may lead to an abrupt capital flight from Asia and have a negative impact on asset prices in Singapore (property-led price declines as liquidity flows out of the city-state), thus challenging our Neutral call on the office REITs sector. Conversely, should the Fed taper at a slower rate than expected, or reverse course and increase its US securities purchases, then liquidity could easily flow back to Singapore and lift asset prices once more. On the office front, a capital flight from Asia or ASEAN may also lead to a cutback in headcount for the financial, insurance and business services sectors. Singapores status as a regional financial centre makes it especially vulnerable to external shocks and financial contagion. If job cuts and layoffs occur, there would be further downward pressure on office rents, on top of the anticipated ~6.4m sq ft of new supply in the Central Area in 2014-2017.

What could make us wrong?

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Singapore Office REITs Research Offices

REGIONAL
WONG Chew Hann, CA Regional Head of Institutional Research (603) 2297 8686 wchewh@maybank-ib.com ONG Seng Yeow Regional Head of Retail Research (65) 6432 1453 ongsengyeow@maybank-ke.com.sg Alexander GARTHOFF Institutional Product Manager (852) 2268 0638 alexgarthoff@kimeng.com.hk

HONG KONG / CHINA

Howard WONG Head of Research (852) 2268 0648 howardwong@kimeng.com.hk Oil & Gas - Regional Alexander LATZER (852) 2268 0647 alexanderlatzer@kimeng.com.hk Metals & Mining - Regional Jacqueline KO, CFA (852) 2268 0633 jacquelineko@kimeng.com.hk Consumer Karen KWAN (852) 2268 0640 karenkwan@kimeng.com.hk Property & REITs Osbert TANG, CFA (86) 21 5096 8370 osberttang@kimeng.com.hk Transport & Industrials Philip TSE, CFA FRM (852) 2268 0643 philiptse@kimeng.com.hk Property & REITs Ricky WK NG, CFA (852) 2268 0689 rickyng@kimeng.com.hk Utilities & Renewable Energy Simon QIAN, CFA (852) 2268 0634 simonqian@kimeng.com.hk Telecom & Internet Steven ST CHAN (852) 2268 0645 stevenchan@kimeng.com.hk Banking & Financials Warren LAU (852) 2268 0644 warrenlau@kimeng.com.hk Technology Regional William YANG (852) 2268 0675 williamyang@kimeng.com.hk Technology Regional

INDONESIA
Wilianto IE Head of Research (62) 21 2557 1125 wilianto.ie@maybank-ke.co.id Strategy Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 rahmi.marina@maybank-ke.co.id Banking & Finance Aurellia SETIABUDI (62) 21 2953 0785 aurellia.setiabudi@maybank-ke.co.id Property Anthony YUNUS (62) 21 2557 1136 anthony.yunus@maybank-ke.co.id Consumer Poultry Isnaputra ISKANDAR (62) 21 2557 1129 isnaputra.iskandar@maybank-ke.co.id Metals & Mining Cement Pandu ANUGRAH (62) 21 2557 1137 pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id Infrastructure Construction Transport Janni ASMAN (62) 21 2953 0784 janni.asman@maybank-ke.co.id Cigarette Healthcare Retail

Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1470 Surachai.p@maybank-ke.co.th Auto Conmat Contractor Steel Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 suttatip.p@maybank-ke.co.th Media Commerce Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400 sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th Energy Petrochem Termporn TANTIVIVAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 termporn.t@maybank-ke.co.th Property Woraphon WIROONSRI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1560 woraphon.w@maybank-ke.co.th Banking & Finance Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 jaroonpan.w@maybank-ke.co.th Transportation Small cap Chatchai JINDARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1401 chatchai.j@maybank-ke.co.th Electronics

ECONOMICS
Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist Singapore | Malaysia (603) 2297 8682 suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com Luz LORENZO Philippines (63) 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com Tim LEELAHAPHAN Thailand (662) 658 1420 tim.l@maybank-ke.co.th JUNIMAN Chief Economist, BII Indonesia (62) 21 29228888 ext 29682 Juniman@bankbii.com Josua PARDEDE Economist / Industry Analyst, BII Indonesia (62) 21 29228888 ext 29695 JPardede@bankbii.com

PHILIPPINES
Luz LORENZO Head of Research (63) 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com Strategy Laura DY-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com Utilities Conglomerates Telcos Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 lovell_sarreal@maybank-atrke.com Consumer Media Cement Rommel RODRIGO (63) 2 849 8839 rommel_rodrigo@maybank-atrke.com Conglomerates Property Gaming Ports/ Logistics Katherine TAN (63) 2 849 8843 kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com Banks Construction Ramon ADVIENTO (63) 2 849 8845 ramon_adviento@maybank-atrke.com Mining

VIETNAM
LE Hong Lien, ACCA Head of Institutional Research (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8181 lien.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Strategy Consumer Diversified Utilities THAI Quang Trung, CFA, Deputy Manager, Institutional Research (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8180 trung.thai@maybankkimeng.com.vn Real Estate Construction Materials TRUONG Thanh Hang (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8085 hang.truong@maybankkimeng.com.vn Consumer Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8082 chuyen.le@maybankkimeng.com.vn Oil & Gas NGUYEN Thi Ngan Tuyen, Head of Retail Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8081 tuyen.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Food & Beverage Oil&Gas Banking NGUYEN Trung Hoa, Dy Head of Retail Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8088 hoa.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Macro Steel Real estate TRINH Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8208 diep.trinh@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Technology Utilities Construction TRUONG Quang Binh (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8087 binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Rubber plantation Tyres and Tubes Oil&Gas PHAM Nhat Bich (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8083 bich.pham@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Consumer Manufacturing Fishery NGUYEN Thi Sony Tra Mi (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8084 mi.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Port operation Pharmaceutical Food & Beverage

MALAYSIA
WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research (603) 2297 8686 wchewh@maybank-ib.com Strategy Construction & Infrastructure Desmond CHNG, ACA (603) 2297 8680 desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com Banking & Finance LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 tjliaw@maybank-ib.com Oil & Gas - Regional Shipping ONG Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678 ct.ong@maybank-ib.com Plantations - Regional Mohshin AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 mohshin.aziz@maybank-ib.com Aviation - Regional Petrochem YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916 samuel.y@maybank-ib.com Gaming Regional Media TAN Chi Wei, CFA (603) 2297 8690 chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com Power Telcos WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679 weisum@maybank-ib.com Property & REITs LEE Yen Ling (603) 2297 8691 lee.yl@maybank-ib.com Building Materials Glove Producers CHAI Li Shin (603) 2297 8684 lishin.c@maybank-ib.com Plantation Construction & Infrastructure KANG Chun Ee (603) 2297 8675 chunee@maybank-ib.com Consumer Ivan YAP (603) 2297 8612 ivan.yap@maybank-ib.com Automotive LEE Cheng Hooi Regional Chartist (603) 2297 8694 chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com Tee Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research (603) 2297 6858 szechiah.t@maybank-ib.com

INDIA
Jigar SHAH Head of Research (91) 22 6623 2601 jigar@maybank-ke.co.in Oil & Gas Automobile Cement Anubhav GUPTA (91) 22 6623 2605 anubhav@maybank-ke.co.in Metal & Mining Capital Goods Property Urmil SHAH (91) 22 6623 2606 urmil@maybank-ke.co.in Technology Media

SINGAPORE
NG Wee Siang Head of Research (65) 6432 1467 ngweesiang@maybank-ke.com.sg Banking & Finance Gregory YAP (65) 6432 1450 gyap@maybank-ke.com.sg SMID Caps Regional Technology & Manufacturing Telcos Wilson LIEW (65) 6432 1454 wilsonliew@maybank-ke.com.sg Property Developers ONG Kian Lin (65) 6432 1470 ongkianlin@maybank-ke.com.sg S-REITs James KOH (65) 6432 1431 jameskoh@maybank-ke.com.sg Consumer - Regional YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6432 1460 yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg Offshore & Marine Derrick HENG (65) 6432 1446 derrickheng@maybank-ke.com.sg Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation) WEI Bin (65) 6432 1455 weibin@maybank-ke.com.sg Commodity Logistics S-chips John CHEONG (65) 6432 1461 johncheong@maybank-ke.com.sg Small & Mid Caps Healthcare

THAILAND
Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 Maria.L@maybank-ke.co.th Consumer / Materials Jesada TECHAHASDIN, CFA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394 Jesada.T@maybank-ke.co.th Financial Services Kittisorn PRUITIPAT, CFA, FRM (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395 Kittisorn.P@maybank-ke.co.th Real Estate Sittichai DUANGRATTANACHAYA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393 Sittichai.D@maybank-ke.co.th Services Sector Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Retail Research (66) 2658 6300 ext 5090 Sukit.u@maybank-ke.co.th Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 mayuree.c@maybank-ke.co.th Strategy Padon VANNARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1450 Padon.v@maybank-ke.co.th Strategy

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APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES
DISCLAIMERS This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each securitys price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdictions stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors returns may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, MKE) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, Representatives) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as anticipate, believe, estimate, intend, plan, expect, forecast, predict and project and statements that an event or result may, will, can, should, could or might occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. MKE may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report. This report is prepared for the use of MKEs clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report. Malaysia Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. Singapore This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (Maybank KERPL) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law. Thailand The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (MBKET) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of MBKET. MBKET accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. US This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the United States (US) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (Maybank KESUSA), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations. UK This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (Maybank KESL) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.

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DISCLOSURES
Legal Entities Disclosures Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Kim Eng Securities (PTKES) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities Limited (License Number: 117/GP-UBCK) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (KESI) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 5 March 2014, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. As of 5 March 2014, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.

OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.

Ong Seng Yeow | Executive Director, Maybank Kim Eng Research

Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) HOLD Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) SELL Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)

Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.

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Malaysia
Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194 Stockbroking Business: Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888 Fax: (603) 2282 5136

Singapore
Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd 9 Temasek Boulevard #39-00 Suntec Tower 2 Singapore 038989 Tel: (65) 6336 9090 Fax: (65) 6339 6003

London
Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd 6/F, 20 St. Dunstans Hill London EC3R 8HY, UK Tel: (44) 20 7621 9298 Dealers Tel: (44) 20 7626 2828 Fax: (44) 20 7283 6674

New York
Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc 777 Third Avenue, 21st Floor New York, NY 10017, U.S.A. Tel: (212) 688 8886 Fax: (212) 688 3500

Hong Kong
Kim Eng Securities (HK) Ltd Level 30, Three Pacific Place, 1 Queens Road East, Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2268 0800 Fax: (852) 2877 0104

Indonesia
PT Maybank Kim Eng Securities Plaza Bapindo Citibank Tower 17th Floor Jl Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54-55 Jakarta 12190, Indonesia Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188 Fax: (62) 21 2557 1189

India
Kim Eng Securities India Pvt Ltd 2nd Floor, The International 16, Maharishi Karve Road, Churchgate Station, Mumbai City - 400 020, India Tel: (91).22.6623.2600 Fax: (91).22.6623.2604

Philippines
Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities Inc. 17/F, Tower One & Exchange Plaza Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue Makati City, Philippines 1200 Tel: (63) 2 849 8888 Fax: (63) 2 848 5738

Thailand
Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited 999/9 The Offices at Central World, 20th - 21st Floor, Rama 1 Road Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330, Thailand Tel: (66) 2 658 6817 (sales) Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)

Vietnam
Maybank Kim Eng Securities Limited 4A-15+16 Floor Vincom Center Dong Khoi, 72 Le Thanh Ton St. District 1 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Tel : (84) 844 555 888 Fax : (84) 8 38 271 030

Saudi Arabia
In association with

Anfaal Capital Villa 47, Tujjar Jeddah Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Street P .O. Box 126575 Jeddah 21352 Tel: (966) 2 6068686 Fax: (966) 26068787

South Asia Sales Trading

Kevin FOY kevinfoy@maybank-ke.com.sg Tel: (65) 6336-5157 US Toll Free: 1-866-406-7447

North Asia Sales Trading

Alex TSUN alextsun@kimeng.com.hk Tel: (852) 2268 0228 US Toll Free: 1 877 837 7635

www.maybank-ke.com | www.maybank-keresearch.com

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