MARKET RESEARCH

Apr 14th Apr 18th

SPOTLIGHT
United Kingdom Unemployment Rate
(% of Labor Force)

PSI20 rises as Portuguese debt yields fall

Last week, PSI20 rose 1.04%. According to data released by OECD, the employment rate in Portugal rose from 60.1% in the first quarter to 62% in the fourth quarter of 2013, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, but remained below the OECD average (65.3%). This week, the "yields" of Government Bonds continued to tumble. In fact, the "yield" of five-year Government Bond hit historical low levels on Wednesday. IGCP announced that "it will be held on April 23 at 10.30 am auction of Treasury bonds maturing in February 2024 in an indicative amount between 500 million and 750 million euro." It is the first issuance of long-term debt without recourse to a banking syndicate since 2011.

8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0%

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INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Apr 14
PSI 20 STOXX 50 FTSE 100 DAX CAC 40 NIKKEI 225 HANG SENG
7,310.83 3,131.57 6,583.76 9,339.17 4,384.56 13,910.16 23,038.80

Apr 15
7,188.30 3,091.52 6,541.61 9,173.71 4,345.35 13,996.81 22,671.26

Apr 16
7,342.57 3,139.26 6,584.17 9,317.82 4,405.66 14,417.68 22,696.01

Apr 17
7,410.05 3,155.81 6,625.25 9,409.71 4,431.81 14,417.53 22,760.24

Apr 18
7,410.05 3,155.81 6,625.25 9,409.71 4,431.81 14,516.27 22,760.24

Wkly Chg
1.04% 1.26% 0.97% 1.01% 1.51% 3.98% -1.06%

Mixed data lead European Indexes higher

European stock markets advanced last week, with STOXX50 gaining 1.26%. The ZEW Centre for Economic Research said its economic sentiment index fell more-than-expected last month. ZEWs index of German business sentiment fell to 43.2, from 46.6 in the preceding month. According to the Office for National Statistics, the U.K. unemployment rate fell to a five year low in the three months to February. ONS reported that the number of people in employment increased to 30.39 million in the same period, leading the overall unemployment rate to fall to 6.9%, from 7.2%. Destatis revelead that Germanys producer price index fell unexpectedly last month. The institution said that Producer Price Inflation fell to an annual rate of 0.3%, from 0.0% last month.

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CURRENCIES
Apr 14
EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/YUAN AUD/JPY
1.382 1.216 0.826 140.810 8.593 95.920

Apr 15
1.381 1.216 0.826 140.710 8.594 95.170

Apr 16
1.382 1.219 0.823 141.290 8.599 95.800

Apr 17
1.381 1.220 0.823 141.500 8.592 95.590

Apr 18
1.381 1.220 0.823 141.410 8.615 95.600

Wkly Chg
-0.54% 0.30% -0.88% 0.21% -0.11% 0.08%

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REFERENCE RATES
Apr 14 Euribor 1M Euribor 3M Euribor 6M Euribor 12M Eonia 0.252% 0.328% 0.427% 0.599% 0.323% Apr 15 0.251% 0.327% 0.426% 0.598% 0.207% Apr 16 0.248% 0.327% 0.427% 0.598% 0.204% Apr 17 0.246% 0.328% 0.426% 0.599% 0.221% Apr 18 -

Chinas GDP growth slows

Asian stocks rose this week after U.S. data and earnings boosted optimism about the countrys economy while further signs of slowdown in China stoked speculation the government will add stimulus to stabilize growth. Chinas GDP rose 7.4% (YoY) in the January-to-March period, the weakest pace of expansion in six quarters. Foreign Direct Investment into China declined by 1.47% in March to USD 12.24 billion, the first drop in over a year. Moreover, Chinas industrial production increased 8.8% in March, less than projected. Japans consumer confidence fell to 37.5 by 1 from the previous month. As a sales-tax increase sapped the publics spending power, Japanese government cut its economic assessment for the first time in 17 months.

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BOND YIELDS
Apr 14 Portugal 6M Portugal 5Y Portugal 10Y Spain 10Y France 10Y Italy 10Y Germany 10Y UK 10Y Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr 18

0.65%
2.627% 3.899% 3.138% 2.019% 3.174% 1.528% 2.636%

0.65%
2.608% 3.865% 3.086% 1.945% 3.111% 1.474% 2.594%

0.62%
2.506% 3.737% 3.067% 1.958% 3.102% 1.487% 2.641%

0.65%
2.486% 3.729% 3.100% 2.013% 3.132% 1.516% 2.696%

2.490% 3.731% 3.101% 1.992% 3.124% -

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SPOTLIGHT
U.S. Core Retail Sales (MoM)

S&P 500 performed the best since July

The S&P 500 rose each day this week to erase its decline for the year. The increase of 2.7% lead S&P 500 Index to its best week since July, as earnings from General Electric Co. and Morgan Stanley beat estimates and concern eased that the Ukraine crisis may worsen. On the economic front, U.S. core retail sales rose above expectations to a seasonally adjusted 0.7%, from 0.3% in the preceding month. Moreover, U.S. core CPI rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.2%, from 0.1% in the preceding month. Analysts had expected U.S. core CPI to rise 0.1% last month. Housing Starts and Building Permits of March both came in weaker than expected. For Housing Starts, economists were expecting a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 970K, but the actual rate was just 946K. Similarly, Building Permits totalled 990K, which was below forecasts of 1,010K. Finally, jobless claims increased less than expected to 304,000 in the week ended April 12, from a revised 302,000 the prior period.

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INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Apr 14
S&P 500 DJIA NQ 100 S&P Lac 40
1,830.61 16,173.24 3,474.63 3,744.13

Apr 15
1,842.98 16,262.56 3,487.85 3,662.04

Apr 16
1,862.31 16,424.85 3,533.09 3,694.01

Apr 17
1,864.85 16,408.54 3,534.53 3,736.47

Apr 18
1,864.85 16,408.54 3,534.53 3,736.47

Wkly Chg
2.71% 2.38% 2.54% -0.09%

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CURRENCIES
Apr 14
USD/JPY USD/YUAN AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD
101.920 6.219 0.941 1.673 0.880 1.097

Good news released in Brazil

Apr 18
102.420 6.235 0.933 1.680 0.884 1.102

Apr 15
101.880 6.222 0.934 1.672 0.881 1.099

Apr 16
102.220 6.221 0.937 1.680 0.882 1.101

Apr 17
102.460 6.219 0.933 1.678 0.883 1.101

Wkly Chg
0.79% 0.38% -0.68% 0.43% 0.86% 0.38%

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COMMODITIES
1.15% 2.44% 2.33% -0.65%
Crude Oil WTI Natural Gas Crude Oil Brent Corn

In Argentina, inflation, as measured by the consumerprice index, rose 2.6% in March from the previous month. Analysts had expected Argentinian CPI to rose 3% last month. February's retail sales jumped 8.5% in Brazil from the year-earlier period, more than the 8.1% estimation by analysts. Finally, Brazils nonseasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell from 5.1%. in February to 5.0% in March.

-1.80% -1.73% 0.26% -0.77%

Gold Silver Copper Sugar

Oil rose on escalated tension over Crimea

Oil futures settled near six-week highs as concerns over the crisis in Ukraine continued to underpin prices, while upbeat U.S. economic data bolstered the demand outlook. Besides, natural gas prices soared after a weekly U.S. stockpile report revealed inventories grew at a slower clip than markets were expecting. On the metals front, gold and silver prices ended the week sharply lower as indications that the U.S. economic recovery is progressing dampened safe haven demand for the precious metal. Lastly, Coffee futures surged 8.1 percent, the most in six weeks, as concerns mounted that crop losses from a drought will increase in Brazil, the worlds biggest producer and exporter.

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US TREASUR Y YIELDS
Apr 14 US 3M US 1Y US 10 Y US 30 Y 0.035% 0.098% 2.648% 3.489% Apr 15 0.035% 0.096% 2.627% 3.459% Apr 16 0.033% 0.093% 2.634% 3.450% Apr 17 0.030% 0.093% 2.721% 3.517% Apr 18 -

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Ana Reis

Beatriz Fougo

David Novo

Jos Silva

Pratik Ashok

Pedro Santos

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