Marcel Probability Olympic Drug Testing

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Objectives (1) Students will be introduced to discrete probability. (2) Students will calculate the conditional probability of a real life problem dealing with drug tests. Overview This activity deals with determining the conditional probability of a real life problem. More specifically, determining what is the probability that an athlete who tests positive actually uses drugs. Problem Drug testing is an important topic in all sports and especially during the Olympics. However, how accurate are these drugs tests? How reliable are they? For this activity assume that each athlete is only tested once. Instructor Steps (1) Begin the lesson by discussing the problem. If needed please view the lecture supplement video under online connections + instructor background to understand the process of this worksheet. (2) Explain to the students that you are going to need to use the ideas behind conditional probability in order to solve number three. (3) Have each student complete the activity individually except for the last question. (4) Once everyone is finished with the individual work have the students form small groups in order to determine how the test could be improved. (5) Discuss possible answers to the final question. (6) If students are still confused please have them watch the lecture supplement video under online connections + instructor background.

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Materials "Olympic Drug Testing" activity sheet Time Introduction to problem (5 minutes), individual work (15 minutes), group discussions (10 minutes), & class discussion (10 minutes). Online Connections + Instructor Background Lecture Supplement https://vimeo.com/92811174

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Olympic Drug Testing
Olympic athletes are tested for drugs by the International Olympic Committee. The IOC is using a test that is 99% accurate. In past years, athletes use drugs such as steroids and marijuana at about 1 athlete per 100.

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1) Out of 20,000 athletes, about how many can be expected to test positive for drugs?!

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2) Of the athletes that test positive, about how many actually use drugs?!

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Fun Fact Norway has won the most medals (263 and counting) at the Winter Games. The United States has won more medals (2,189 and counting) at the Summer Games than any other country.

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3) What is the probability that an athlete that tests positive uses drugs?!

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4) How could the drug test be improved? If the test was 99.9% accurate what is the answer to question three?

Fun Fact The early Olympic Games were celebrated as a religious festival from 776 B.C. until 393 A.D., when the games were banned for being a pagan festival (the Olympics celebrated the Greek god Zeus). In 1894, a French educator Baron Pierre de Coubertin, proposed a revival of the ancient tradition, and thus the modern-day Olympic Summer Games were born.