Running head: PREDICING EMOTIONAL STATE OF AN EVENT

Can People Predict, with Accuracy, Their Emotional State of an Event? Natasha Lewis Salt Lake Community College

PREDICING EMOTIONAL STATE OF AN EVENT Abstract After reading five articles that compare research findings on predicting ones emotional state-his/her open-mindedness, past, and impact bias are the key factors in having the ability to predict future emotions. Research shows that people will either overestimate their reaction to an event or will overlook the impact it has on their thoughts and feelings. Two of the articles listed skills that people use to adequately predict the future. They also explain the significant role of the past and its immense influence on prediction-accuracy. The past is the key and once people

realize its influence, they will be able to manipulate and predict their future sentiments. Research also found that not focusing enough on the past and allowing the impact bias to influence them will leave them lacking of this unique skill. More evidence is needed to see if the skills they listed actually help people predict how they will react to a futuristic event.

PREDICING EMOTIONAL STATE OF AN EVENT Can People Predict, with Accuracy, Their Emotional State of an Event?

Picture this, 10 years from now you will have won the lottery! How do you think you will feel at that time? What will your reaction be? Predicting the future is fun and something most people put a lot of time and effort into thinking about. It is amusing to see how we will react in any give situation in fact this is useful in making daily decisions. For example, when getting married people need to be able to predict what it will be like to be with their future-spouse for the rest of time, in order to choose them as a partner. Predicting the future is useful and needed in our lives. But studies have shown that people tend to not accurately predict their future emotions (Ayton, Pott, & Elwakili, 2007). First I will be discussing how people struggle with predicting their future emotions during an event. Wilson and Gilbert (2005) went on to say that people miss-predict how they will react to feeling pleasure or displeasure in future events, which leads people to not being able to reach their full potential for happiness. Ayton, Pott and Elwakili (2007) said that people shouldnt be surprised that they are surprised by how things turn out, because they dont give the right amount of feeling to a future event. How then are they able to predict accurately how they will feel about an event in the future? Secondly, research has shown that the key to accurately predict the future, is to be able to imagine the future (Tonn & Conrad, 2007). Taking the example from above about marriage, one must be able to imagine a future with that person in order to marry them. People need to be able to paint a picture, so that they can make good (present) choices as they prepare for yet to come. Tonn and Conrad claimed that once people can envision a future they tend to worry less about it. They also went on to say that if people can improve their ability to deal with the future, then it

PREDICING EMOTIONAL STATE OF AN EVENT will help them cope with the day-to-day struggles. Ayton, Pott and Elwakili (2007) found that if people could do the three things it would help them better predict the future.

I personally had one psychologist tell me that most people dont tell the full story of how they feel and people tend to twist things to better suite their beliefs. These ideas that have been present by Tonn and Conrad (2007), and Ayton, Pott and Elwakili (2007), seem to be unrealistic. More evidence is needed to prove these findings to be accurate. Lastly, I will discuss how the past is important and can help us predict the future. Leslie T. Chang once said The past has been there all along, reminding us: This time--maybe, hopefully, against all odds, we will get it right. Caruso, Gilbert, and Wilson (2008) said that people place more emphasis on future events over past ones. They also tell us that it is wise to place a value on an event before it happens, as their study shows that people tend to rate things lower after they happen. Their study goes hand-in-hand with the Agerstrom, Bjorklund, and Carlsson (2012) study. Both of these discoveries insure the idea that people place more importance on the distant future over the past. Based on the five articles, I found that people cannot adequately predict the future. This is because people are unable to accurately know how they will feel on a given situation. People tend to either over or under emphasize how they will emotionally feel about the event (impact bias). Even though people are unable to perfectly predict the future, people still try. Why can't we predict our future emotions? Wilson and Gilbert (2005) gave a few different examples of why people cant predict their emotional state in the future. Whereas Ayton, Pott, and Elwakili (2007) gave a study to show us that people are unable to predict how they would feel in the future. Both articles showed how people overestimate how intense their emotions will be and how they lack the ability to

PREDICING EMOTIONAL STATE OF AN EVENT predict the duration of the reaction. In the study that Ayton, Pott, and Elwakili did they showed the reader that people defocus the future. People tend focus on the changes that come from the future and defocus on other factors that influence how they actual feel. Ayton, Pott, and Elwakili (2007) did a study on how people would contemplate the impact of paraplegia on future happiness. They found that people focused on the change it brought and ignored other influential factors. Wilson and Gilbert (2005) studied the impact of

focalism. Focalism is when people overestimate thinking about a future event and underestimate how the event will sway their thoughts and feelings. Wilson and Gilbert (2005) provided another example as to why individuals are unable to predict their future emotions. Immune neglect, where they overlook the process of coping during/after a traumatic event. I have heard from numerous friends if he breaks up with me, it will be the end of the world. What they forget is that they each have a psychological immune system that will help their emotional state during a negative experience. This psychological immune system will help them see that their ex-partner is less suitable for them. It is truly amazing what the human body is capable of and how each are programmed to overcome hard events throughout life. The thought of it being the end of the world is natural, but the fact is, it's not. People are able to cope with traumatic events. When people try to predict their emotional state of an event they need to keep a few things in mind. First is that their psychological immune system will help them overcome negative events. The second is people need to give an honest estimate about how much it truly will impact them, and not underestimate the influences. By remembering these two thing it will help them to be able to predict how they will feel in the future.

PREDICING EMOTIONAL STATE OF AN EVENT How can we adequately predict our future?

If people are able to gain skills needed to predict the emotional state of their future, it will help them greatly! Tonn and Conrad (2007) give the key to being able to predict the future; whereas Ayton, Pott, and Elwakili (2007) gives a step-by-step explanation on how to achieve this ability. If people are able to imagine the future, Tonn and Conrad said, then they will have a clearer perception. They also said that if individuals can imagine a better future, then they should worry less about the yet to come. Doing this will also help them cope with their day-to-day struggles. Tonn and Conrad's study was inconclusive, but it still showed the importance of accurately predicting one's future. Ayton, Pott, and Elwakili (2007) collected data to not only prove what Tonn and Conrad (2007) said but also to provide three steps needed to predict one's emotional future with accuracy. First people would need to make an effort to compare past experiences with future ones. Second, even if making the effort, they would have to decide which of their many past experiences were applicable to the future being contemplated. Third, even when making the effort to think about past events and also selecting an appropriate event, they would need to recall accurately how they felt (p.66). In the two studies they did, they found that people underestimated how they would react to the happiness they actual experienced. This goes to show that even if the keys to mastering how to predict one's emotional state are obtained, they are often neglected or misused. If people were to use each of these keys proponents, they would have the ability to clearly predict their reaction to an event, at least in theory. More evidence is needed to show the effectiveness of the steps. How does the past impact the future? Caruso, Gilbert, and Wilson (2008) did a study contrasting the importance an individual places on the before and after of an occurrence. They found that most put more value on the prior

PREDICING EMOTIONAL STATE OF AN EVENT rather than the after. Using the example of the jurors and the accident victims; Caruso, Gilbert and Wilson were able to demonstrate how sympathy was given to those who were currently suffering or predicted-to, rather than those who were post-accident and healthy. Another discovery from the above study was that people tend to know less about the future than the past. They also noted that the future holds more value to people because it can change, whereas the past cant. This finding is important to note because people will value the future more than the past, and yet it was told by Ayton, Pott, and Elwakili (2007) that the past holds to keys to unlocking the impending future. Their study has similar findings to Agerstrom, Bjorklund, and Carlsson (2012).

Agerstrom, Bjorklund, and Carlsson (2012) found that people place more value on events that are in the distant-future over the near-future. They also found that the amount of emotion given is based on the persons temporal perspective. Based on both of the articles, people tend to disregard the past and give more emotion to the future event, based on their present understanding. Future Research. Based on the five articles I chose, I found that more evidence is needed to show how we are able to predict the future. In two of the articles, they give people an idea of how they are able to predict the future I want to see these findings put into action. I want to know how reliable their ideas are and if they are practical. I also feel that if someone was to study this, then they would need to find a way to make sure people are being honest on how they feel about a past event so they can compare it to the future. Conclusion.

PREDICING EMOTIONAL STATE OF AN EVENT

The five articles did a good job showing the reader how people are unable to predict how they will react to a future event, emotionally. The researchers found that the past does play a significant role in how people will react emotionally to a futuristic event. This is important to remember as it is key to unlocking how to predict the outcome of an emotional event. They also provided the reader with a few ideas on how to predict the future more efficiently, which is important to making better decisions in the present.

PREDICING EMOTIONAL STATE OF AN EVENT References Agerstrom, J., Bjorklund, F., & Carlsson, R. (2012). Emotions in time: Moral emotions appear more intense with temporal distance. Social Cognition, 30 (2), 181-198. Doi: 10.1521/soco.2012.30.2.181. Ayton, P., Pott, A., & Elwakili, N. (2007). Affective forecasting: Why cant people predict their emotions? Psychology Press 13 (1), 62-80. Doi: 10.1080/13546780600872726

Caruso, E. M., Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2008). A wrinkle in time asymmetric valuation of past and future events. Psychological Science, 19 (8) 796-801. Doi: 10.1111/j.14679280.2008.02159.x Good Reads (2014). Quotes About Past and Future. Retrieved from http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/past-and-future Tonn, B.E., & Conrad F. (2007). Thinking about the future: A psychological analysis. Social Behavior and Personality, 35 (7), p889-902. http://web.b.ebscohost.com.dbprox.slcc.edu/ehost/detail?vid=4&sid=c238db87-c4e4-49a5-b6b1fdc8a16afd1a%40sessionmgr110&hid=121&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db= pbh&AN=27552618 Wilson, T.D. & Gilbert, D.T. (2005). Affective forecasting knowing what to want. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 14 (3) 131-134. Doi: 10.1111/j.09637214.2005.00355.x