Climate Change- Human Health Effects of the Future

Ryan Chowdhury, B.B.A.

Chester Zarnoch, Ph. D
Abstract
I did my research paper on the effects of climate change on human health.
Climate change plays a significant role in people's health. Even though many people
disprove that climate change is occurring or will occur in the future, the truth is it is
happening right now. I have researched numerous publications and articles about the
effects climate change can have on human health. Some publications and articles are
based on solely on one effect, i.e. heat waves, while others encompass all the effects.
My research paper states some of all the possible effects climate change can have on
the human body. The first effect is the increase in temperature which will result in hotter
days, and more frequent and longer heat waves. Climate change also has a big impact
on vector borne infections. We will see a rise in vector borne infections due to increases
in temperature. On the other hand, some infections will intensify while others will
decrease. I discuss the impacts of heat waves and vector borne infections will have on
New York City. I also researched on the globalization processes that will change due to
climate change. Lastly, I researched possible solutions to combat the adverse effects of
climate change. This is a big issue that the government is pushing aside. Millions, if not
billions of people will be affected in the future by climate change. And all will be
impacted one way or another.
Introduction
To understand how climate change affects the human health we have to look
climate change first. Climate change is a result of an overall increase in temperature of
the entire planet-Earth. Temperature is increasing because of the greenhouse effect
which is a natural phenomenon. The greenhouse effect is when sunlight hits the Earth
and some of the heat is reflected back into the space, but some are absorbed by
greenhouse gases. The major greenhouse gasses are methane (CH4), carbon dioxide
(CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O). These gases are naturally occurring in the Earth and
are responsible in keeping the Earth warm to sustain life. Unfortunately, we have
increased the production of these greenhouse gasses through power plants, fossil fuels,
and automobiles, etc. Henceforth, since there are more greenhouse gasses, more heat
is absorbed from the sun and that raises the temperature internally. This increase of
temperature can have devastating effect on the entire planet and all the different kind of
species that inhabit it. I would like to focus on the effects on human health. Most of the
research done was based on developed countries, which is a concern because under-
developing countries will experience a greater impact.
Heat Waves
Climate change will have a big impact on heat waves. It is projected by the IPCC
(Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Control) that temperatures will increase to 1.5
degrees Celsius to 6 degrees Celsius (IPCC, 2007). The world is predicted to have
longer summers and shorter winter seasons. Heat waves are defined as period of time
where temperature is more than standard and it causes health risks. It is also defined as
heavy warm air masses and consecutive days with high temperature (Luber, 2008). It
also consists of high heat and high humidity. USA will experience more than 150 days
of heat waves of 38 degree Celsius. (IPCC, 2007) The human body reacts to thermal
stress by producing sweat, increasing cardiac output, and redirecting blood flow to the
skin. This allows heat loss through radiation and conduction. Mortality has increased
during heat waves up to 90%, 52%, and 14% for cardiovascular, central nervous
system, and respiratory systems, respectively, for not being able to function properly
(Patz, Campbell-Lendrum, Holloway and Foley, 2005). Heat waves cause a wide range
of medical conditions. The most common are heat cramps, heat rash, and heat
exhaustions. Heat cramps are caused when the body losing bodly fluids and loss due to
sweating. Heat exhaustion is when the body lost water and salts through a prolonged
amount of heavy sweating. Heat rash is a skin irritation due to sweat not evaporating
from the skin (Abernethy, Fawzy, and Lyerly, 2013). The most fatal condition is heat
stroke. This is when the body is not able to regulate its internal core temperature;
basically the body is not able to go back to homeostasis. The body stops producing
sweat hence it cannot relieve the excess heat from the body. This can result in death if
medical attention is not given. Heat related death is the number one killer in the US, its
more than any other weather related disasters.
Heat waves have a big impact in the death rate of the population. Studies have
shown an increase of 7 to 147 percent (Kravchenko, Abernethy, Fawzy, and Lyerly,
2013). There are many incidents where heat waves caused mortalities. In 1995,
Chicago heat wave caused 700 deaths in a one week period. In 2003, the European
heat wave caused about 70,000 deaths. US cities have fewer deaths due to the
availability of air conditioning while the rest of the world does not have the same
resources. Moreover, more people were geographically dispersed which would explain
that people couldnt get the medical help they needed. There are complications when
estimating the deaths related to heat due to the fact that some are unrecognized as
heat related death and classifies as something else (Haines, 2004). This might explain
why the toll isnt high enough to create a public attention. Heat related death is usually
classified as a person found in an enclosed environment with a high ambient
temperature without adequate cooling devices (Luber, 2008).
Certain groups of people are more susceptible to heat related illness and they
are the elderly population, urban residents, and people with chronic diseases. A
phenomenon called urban heat island, is when urban areas are 2 to 10 degrees Celsius
higher than the nearby rural areas. This is a result of heat being absorbed by paved
surfaces and buildings, lack of vegetation, and reduced airflow in the city (Kovats,
Campbell-Lendrum, and Matthies, 2005). Additionally, since more heat is absorbed
during the day, the heat is emitted throughout the night and amplifies the rise in
temperatures. With more than half of the seven billion people, living in dense populated
urban areas and more projected to go there; heat waves will be a big concern.
Individuals with chronic diseases such as cardiovascular, kidney, and respiratory
disease will have an increase risk of death of higher temperatures (Haines, 2004). The
elder population is expected to double to 83 million in 2050, and individuals of ages 65
and over are the most vulnerable in the US. Historically, people aged 75 years
accounted for more than 80 percent of the total mortality during the heat waves (Kovats,
Campbell-Lendrum, and Matthies, 2005). It has shown from 2005 to 2050, which heat
related illnesses will increase and surpass cold related illnesses (McMichael, Woodruff,
and Hales, 2006).
Malaria and Dengue
As global climate continues to increase, it paves the way for many infections to
spread. The three categories of infections are water, food, and vector. I investigated
vector borne infections. To briefly summarize the other two infections, food infections
are increased rapidly due to bacteria like salmonella being able to last longer in the host
and water borne infections bacteria such as cholera being able to multiply faster in
warmer temperatures (McMichael, Woodruff, and Hales, 2006). Vector borne infections
are carried by the vector which is the insect or carrier that transmits the parasite which
lives and reproduces inside its host. The vector serves two vital functions for the
parasite. The vector is part of the parasites development cycle and it allows the
parasite to be transmitted directly to new hosts ( Patza, and Reisenb, 2001). Most
common vectors are usually arthropods or mammals. The two most common arthropod
vectors are mosquitoes and ticks. Mosquitoes are known to transmit malaria, dengue
fever, and yellow fever. Ticks transmit Lyme diseases, rock mountain spotted fever, and
babesiosis.
One of the most perilous parasites mosquitoes carry is malaria. Malaria is a
protozoan named genus Plasmodium and is spread by the mosquitoes of the genus
Anopheles (Reiter, 2000). Once the parasite enters the human body, it attaches itself
with the red blood cells. This causes the person to have high fevers, chills, and flu-like
illness. Increases in temperature shows that mosquitoes are able to increases larvae
eggs, biting and reduce extrinsic incubation period (Vorhess, Gray, and Bradley, 2013).
Rainfall can provide mosquitoes with pools of water where they can breed and
reproduce faster. The pathogen in higher temperature allows the pathogens to multiply
faster which in turn increases the number of infections to spread (White,
Pukrittayakamee, Hien, Faiz, Mokuolu, and Dondorp, 2014). In addition, they tend to
more active at higher temperatures. They need temperatures of 60 F to be able to
complete their life cycles (Benitez, 2009). Seasonality is also a factor. Summer
temperature allows the mosquitoes to thrive but during the winter they are reduced. If
temperature were to increases overall, seasonality would be a non factor since summer
will be longer annually. A risk matrix framework was created to shows the overall risk of
certain diseases (Patza, and Reisenb, 2001). Diseases such as white pine blister rust
Cronartium ribicola, which thrive in cooler temperature, are projected to decrease. While
malaria is positively correlated with higher temperatures.
Another common disease the mosquitoes infect humans with is dengue fever.
Dengue fever is carried by the mosquito specie Aedes Aegypti (Reiter, 2000). This
species is found mostly in urban areas and has a high survival rate. Dengue viruses is
from the genus Flavivirus and is classified as four closely related viruses names Den-1,
Den-2, Den-3, and Den-4 (Reiter, 2000). When dengue virus enters the human body, it
invades the immature dendritic cells in the skin and this is transported to the lymph
nodes where viral antigens activate the host immune response (Reiter, 2000). It
progresses to the stage where the blood vessels become permeable which causes the
circulatory system to collapse and could result in death The symptoms of the virus is
high fever, severe headache, vomiting, extreme muscle and joint pain. A big concern is
that a vaccine hasnt been created yet. Dengue fever is reported in warm, rainy
seasons. So far, this is seasonal. However, with increases in temperature and
precipitation, Aedes Aegypti is projected to increase exponentially (Vorhess, Gray, and
Bradley, 2013). It has shown that average life of Aedes Aegypti is about 9 days. Aedes
Aegypti females were observed to be able to feed two or three times interrupted with
resumption on the same or different host (Halstead, 2008). Another effect an increase of
temperature will have is it will extend the transmission season and this will increase the
rate of infections. When precipitation and rain fall increase, there will be areas of
breeding sites which Aedes Aegypti are able to produce more larval habitats and this
increases the number of Aedes Aegypti.
Climate change will have a big impact in the entire world. Higher temperature
allows mosquitoes to expand to new territories and the already high populated areas
rapidly increase. Cool temperatures are the only barrier to stop mosquitoes from
expanding but if there isnt any more winter then mosquitoes theoretically have no
barriers to growth. The pathogens inside the mosquitoes also thrive in warmer
temperatures because the developmental cycle is shorter and it is able to reproduce
faster in favorable conditions (Lafferty, 2009). In addition, higher latitudes and altitudes
will not have a negative effect to mosquitos population. This allows mosquitoes to
expand towards those areas where people settle to avoid them. Another implication of
bigger mosquito populations is that it affects the elder population and pre-adolescent
children whose immune system isnt strong enough to fight off these infections. There
will be more mortality in elders and children.
New York City
New York City residents will be affected by climate. It is projected that more New
York residents will die from heat related illness due to more heat waves. It is projected
that by 2020 there will an increase of 20 percent in mortality and a shocking 90 percent
in 2080(Freeman, 2013). This is a reasonable estimate because monthly temperature
will increase dramatically and there will be extended heat waves of 36 degree Celsius
(Freeman, 2013). Furthermore, New York City is becoming denser because more
people are moving in and our buildings are not equipped to reduce the heat. New York
City is also hotter because of the urban island phenomena. With more rainfall and
weather events like Hurricane Sandy, this allows mosquitoes to flourish in the city. They
are able to breed in more places and spread the infections faster due to the close
proximity of people living together. Higher temperatures and humidity will allow
mosquitoes to thrive and reproduce faster. These are two of the many problems New
York City will face in the future. The best thing to do is Mayor Bill de Blasio to create
policies and programs to find solutions to these problems. One thing to do is construct
buildings that reflect sun radiation to reduce urban island effect. Another thing to do is
create a power source that has a small carbon footprint like nuclear or solar energy. We
need these sources to power the air conditioning in buildings to reduce heat related
illnesses. Another thing we can do is educated New Yorkers of malaria and dengue
fever to make sure they seek medical help. In addition, we should try to create vaccines
and make sure everyone receives one.
Globalization
Another area we have to consider is the globalization effects of climate change. It
is projected that by 2050 that the human population will increase to 9.2 billion people
(Anthony, 2013). This means more resources are consumed and more greenhouse
gases are produces which increases the climate change projections. The demographic
changes in the future will also be the increase of urbanization and elderly population
increase. Urbanization increases will create cities with highly dense area of people living
with each other. This is a big issue especially when mosquito population starts to grow,
they will have more people to infect. Hence, infections start spreading rapidly. Another
thing to consider is the economic activity of climate change. There will be a huge gap
between the rich and the poor. The poor will be the ones witnessing the full effect of
climate change. Underdeveloped and developing nations that do not have the
infrastructure to cope with prolonged heat waves and mosquito population. Health care
of many countries will be overtaxes due to the medical issues from heat waves and
infections. These issues all in a whole put more stress to the environment.
Conclusion
There are a lot of solutions and polices to combat climate change. We can
reduce our footprint while saving more lives. We can design energy efficient buildings
and facilities for everyone. Buildings could use solar power or wind energy and buildings
should be constructed with well insulated materials. We should look at nuclear energy
which shows promise to provide power to buildings. This prevents heat related
illnesses. We should also increase funding towards vaccines and cures for malaria and
dengue fever. This will allow us to decrease causalities in the future form those
infections. We should advocate to the public that climate is a big problem and we need
to reduce greenhouse gases in order to decrease the health effects of climate change.
Every nation needs to unite to be able to make any progress towards solving climate
change. These are but a few solutions. There are more human health effects besides
heat related illnesses and vector borne infections. Hopefully, these points should
encourage readers to try and make a difference in the world and save the world.
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