Climate Change and its Projected Effects on

the Alameda Whipsnake

Prepared for: Fernando Villalba
Natural Resource Specialist
National Parks Service
Prepared by: Gabriela De La Cruz Tello
San Jose State University
Department of Meteorology and Climate Science


Executive Summary
The Alameda Whipsnake is threatened at a federal and at a state level. Its habitat lies in the
Chaparral and Shrub biome located North of Santa Clara County, South of Alameda County, West
of San Joaquin County, and East of the Bay Area. The purpose of this analysis was to find
whether climate change projected at the Representative Concentrations Pathways 8.5 (RCP 8.5)
scenario was going to threaten the already threatened Alameda Whipsnake anymore than it already is
threatened. Five climate models were used for this analysis, each chosen due to it having at least four
ensemble runs. The reason that each model had to meet this criteria was to account for as much
between and within model variation. The models with five ensemble runs each were the CANESM2,
CCSM4, and CSIRO-mk3-6-0. The models with four ensemble runs each were the HADGEM2-ES
and the IPS1-c5a-1r. One notable difference between the CCSM4 model and the rest of the models
was that the CCSM4 model tended to run cooler. The Alameda Whipsnake is more active than usual
during the mating season (March through June), and during the hatching season (August through
November). Analysis of all model means for the mating season during the 1960s compared to the
2060s showed an increase of 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit between both the minimum and maximum
ends of the temperature ranges. For the hatching season during the 1960s compared to the 2060s,
there was an increase of 7.8 degrees Fahrenheit between the maximum ends of the temperature
ranges, and a 7.6 degree Fahrenheit difference between the minimum ends of the temperature
ranges. Because the Alameda Whipsnake and the Chaparral biome are adapted to the Hot -Summer
Mediterranean Climate (Csa), they probably will not be negatively affected by increasing
temperatures.














Introduction
The Alameda Whipsnake has been designated as a state and federally threatened snake by
the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Threatened species are one step away from becoming
endangered. Its habitat lies in the area South of Alameda County, North of Santa Clara County,
West of San Joaquin County, and East of the Bay Area. It is threatened due to human expansion
and development, and the residual effects associated with them (USFWS 2005).
There is much concern regarding this snakes habitat because it relies on chaparral and shrub
vegetation communities. Shrub and chaparral vegetation is ideal for the Alameda Whipsnake because
it offers enough ground cover for protection from predators, but not so much to inhibit the snakes
from getting enough sunlight to heat their bodies (ECCC 2006).
This project seeks to answer the question of whether climate change projected at the
Representative Concentrations Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5) will threaten this already threatened
snake even more. RCPs are the Watts per square meter added to the atmosphere due to greenhouse
gas (ghg) concentrations in 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels (Skeptical Science 2013).
Methodology
This project used five climate model ensembles to answer the previously stated question.
The downscaled Climate Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) runs were used as long
as they had four or more ensemble members. The models that met this criteria were the CANESM2,
CCSM4, CSIRO-mk3-6-0, HADGEM2-ES, and the IPS1-c5a-1r. The first three had five ensemble
runs, and the last two had four ensemble runs. The reason for so many ensemble runs was to
account for all of the variability between models and runs. In other words, it was better to have as
many ensemble runs as possible because variability between and within models would smooth out
when more models were included in any averaging.
The projections for the data were made for January 1950 to January 2099. The resolution
was at 1/8
th
of a degree, which translates to about 87 square miles per grid cell. The variable that was
analyzed was monthly maximum temperature. The latitude ranged from 37.4375N to 37.9375 N and
the longitude ranged from 238.0114E to 238.1050E. Such high resolution was only possible thanks
to the Downscaled Climate Projections Archive version 2.0 development group.
Two seasons of increased activity for the Alameda Whipsnake were analyzed. First was the
mating season, which was from March through June. Second was the hatching season, which was
from August through November (EPA 2010).
Results
Figure 1 shows the means for each ensemble and the ensemble means for all five models in
our dataset.
The thick lines are the ensemble means for all five models, and the thinner lines surrounding the
thicker lines are the means for each ensemble belonging to each model. One thing to note is that all
models except for the CCSM4 model seem to follow the same trajectory. The CCSM4 model seems
to run cooler than the rest. One clear trend amongst all five models is the dramatic warming that
begins at about 2040, which is expected from the RCP 8.5 worst case scenario. The change seen in
this figure ranges from about 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit increase over the 149 years.
Figure 2 shows the mating season temperature model means for the decades of the 1960s
compared to the 2060s. The X-axis is each year corresponding to the 1960s and the 2060s, which
means that the spot for 61 will apply to 1961 and to 2061. The Y-axis is maximum temperature in
Fahrenheit. The magenta line is the all-models mean for the 2060s, and the blue line is the all-
models mean for the 1960s. There was quite a bit of variability between models for the mating
season, so the difference between the maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures for the
past and future decades was 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.
Figure 3 shows the hatching season temperature model means for the same decades of the
1960s and the 2060s. The X-axis corresponds to the same years as in figure 2. The Y-axis is also
maximum temperature in Fahrenheit. The magenta line corresponds to the all-model mean for the
2060s, and the blue line corresponds to the all-model mean for the 1960s. Variability between
models for the future and past projections was much smaller than during the mating season, so the
average maximum temperature difference was much more obvious. There was a 7.8 degree
Figure 1
Fahrenheit difference between the maximum ends of the past and future temperature ranges and a
7.6 degree Fahrenheit difference between the minimum ends of the past and future temperature
ranges.
Figure 2

Conclusions
The hatching season (August through November) had more warming than the mating
season (March through June). The difference in warming between high-activity seasons was about 7
degrees Fahrenheit. The Chaparral biome and the Alameda Whipsnake are both adapted to the
Hot-Summer Mediterranean Climate (Csa). This climate is characterized by the winter months
getting about 3-4 inches of rain, and the hottest summer month consistently being over 72 degrees
Fahrenheit. Therefore, the projected temperature increase probably will not endanger the Alameda
Whipsnake or its habitat any further, because they are both suited to high temperatures. The
Alameda Whipsnake is an ectotherm, which means that it gets its body heat from its environment,
so it may thrive in high temperatures. Other factors like human development will probably do more
damage than increasing temperatures. Variables like precipitation and fire frequency will probably be
important to analyze next, because they will likely have a larger effect on the Alameda Whipsnake
and its habitat than warming temperatures.
Figure 3



REFERENCES
Environmental Protection Agency, cited 2010: Endangered Species Facts: Alameda Whipsnake.
[Available online at: http://www.epa.gov/espp/factsheets/alameda-whipsnake.pdf]

East Contra Costa County, cited 2006: Reptiles: Alameda Whipsnake.
[Available online at: http://www.co.contra-costa.ca.us/depart/cd/water/hcp/archive/final-
hcp/pdfs/apps/appd/08a_alawhipsnake_9-28-06_profile.pdf]

Skeptical Science, cited 2013: The Beginners Guide to Representative Concentration Pathways.
[Available online at: http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3#PrimaryCharacteristics]

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, cited 2005: Species Account: Alameda Whipsnake.
[Available online at: http://www.fws.gov/sacramento/es_species/Accounts/Amphibians-
Reptiles/Documents/alameda_whipsnake.pdf]