Mexico GDP 1Q2014

by Eduardo Petazze
In 1Q2014 Mexico's GDP grew by 1.84% Y/Y (+0.28% Q/Q, SA)
By 2014 it is estimated that GDP will regain momentum with a growth of 1.6% from 1.1% in 2013
INEGI of Mexico released GDP data, production approach, for 1Q2014 (pdf, 13 pages)
The following summary contains our estimate for the remainder of 2014 and projection for 2015

Annual data
Millions (2008) pesos, NSA
Primary Activities
Mining
Electricity, water and gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Financial services and insurance
Real estate
Professional,
Management of companies
Services business
Education
Health care
Recreational, cultural and
Accommodation and .
Other Services government
Government
GVA
Taxes
GDP
Y/Y
Primary Activities
Mining
Electricity, water and gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Financial services and insurance
Real estate
Professional,
Management of companies
Services business
Education
Health care
Recreational, cultural and
Accommodation and .
Other Services government
Government
GVA
Taxes
GDP
Own estimate

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,571,936 1,532,636 1,544,222 1,508,771 1,617,914 1,622,560 1,662,697 1,692,325
4,218,764 4,048,288 4,083,971 4,068,817 4,104,998 4,037,103 4,008,253 3,975,746
1,010,207 1,023,353 1,069,620 1,143,918 1,171,305 1,173,084 1,184,757 1,194,789
4,122,838 3,872,799 3,902,028 4,060,396 4,143,417 3,957,668 3,820,316 3,663,785
8,109,019 7,431,627 8,066,818 8,437,260 8,772,278 8,899,356 9,176,805 9,403,477
7,143,762 6,254,081 6,996,152 7,676,249 8,038,642 8,261,474 8,428,823 8,619,455
2,802,228 2,600,033 2,800,479 2,913,693 3,032,502 3,077,378 3,127,502 3,175,559
1,297,935 1,407,852 1,421,348 1,484,219 1,730,305 1,822,079 1,913,069 1,995,983
1,562,199 1,615,779 1,954,473 2,093,270 2,271,615 2,358,380 2,416,125 2,480,525
5,793,505 5,856,125 6,018,175 6,194,039 6,353,622 6,447,781 6,588,399 6,707,675
1,155,420 1,097,854 1,096,682 1,153,154 1,166,238 1,154,311 1,151,995 1,146,170
297,402
272,977
287,340
297,531
317,634
299,698
306,065
299,884
1,595,093 1,483,147 1,493,663 1,582,785 1,652,496 1,716,459 1,729,687 1,762,137
1,888,635 1,892,109 1,895,409 1,925,122 1,967,976 1,989,428 2,028,743 2,063,629
1,000,434 1,020,935 1,019,754 1,041,376 1,063,773 1,085,081 1,098,761 1,113,615
229,412
220,096
229,184
227,503
234,187
234,390
227,916
224,543
1,111,290 1,004,269 1,023,618 1,039,281 1,096,262 1,119,397 1,142,161 1,165,738
1,022,461 1,016,394 1,026,697 1,045,882 1,068,172 1,086,091 1,088,878 1,095,473
1,832,256 1,869,406 1,915,082 1,888,412 1,960,974 1,976,684 2,028,654 2,074,931
47,764,798 45,519,761 47,844,715 49,781,679 51,764,310 52,318,403 53,129,605 53,855,441
1,262,656 1,203,236 1,265,920 1,315,292 1,367,900 1,382,542 1,404,194 1,423,579
49,027,454 46,722,997 49,110,635 51,096,971 53,132,210 53,700,945 54,533,799 55,279,020
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1.32%
-2.50%
0.76%
-2.30%
7.23%
0.29%
2.47%
1.78%
-3.72%
-4.04%
0.88%
-0.37%
0.89%
-1.65%
-0.71%
-0.81%
1.27%
1.30%
4.52%
6.95%
2.39%
0.15%
1.00%
0.85%
3.81%
-6.06%
0.75%
4.06%
2.04%
-4.48%
-3.47%
-4.10%
-1.01%
-8.35%
8.55%
4.59%
3.97%
1.45%
3.12%
2.47%
0.15%
-12.45%
11.87%
9.72%
4.72%
2.77%
2.03%
2.26%
-0.08%
-7.22%
7.71%
4.04%
4.08%
1.48%
1.63%
1.54%
5.99%
8.47%
0.96%
4.42%
16.58%
5.30%
4.99%
4.33%
21.94%
3.43%
20.96%
7.10%
8.52%
3.82%
2.45%
2.67%
3.28%
1.08%
2.77%
2.92%
2.58%
1.48%
2.18%
1.81%
3.12%
-4.98%
-0.11%
5.15%
1.13%
-1.02%
-0.20%
-0.51%
7.50%
-8.21%
5.26%
3.55%
6.76%
-5.65%
2.12%
-2.02%
2.15%
-7.02%
0.71%
5.97%
4.40%
3.87%
0.77%
1.88%
1.15%
0.18%
0.17%
1.57%
2.23%
1.09%
1.98%
1.72%
1.28%
2.05%
-0.12%
2.12%
2.15%
2.00%
1.26%
1.35%
0.28%
-4.06%
4.13%
-0.73%
2.94%
0.09%
-2.76%
-1.48%
0.06%
-9.63%
1.93%
1.53%
5.48%
2.11%
2.03%
2.06%
1.28%
-0.59%
1.01%
1.87%
2.13%
1.68%
0.26%
0.61%
1.99%
2.03%
2.44%
-1.39%
3.84%
0.80%
2.63%
2.28%
1.40%
-4.70%
5.11%
4.05%
3.98%
1.07%
1.55%
1.37%
1.45%
-4.71%
5.21%
3.90%
4.00%
1.07%
1.57%
1.38%
1.40%
-4.70%
5.11%
4.04%
3.98%
1.07%
1.55%
1.37%

Quarterly data
Gross data (as reported)
Millions (2008) pesos, NSA
Primary Activities
Mining
Electricity, water and gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Financial services and insurance
Real estate
Professional,
Management of companies
Services business
Education
Health care
Recreational, cultural and
Accommodation and .
Other Services government
Government
GVA
Taxes
GDP
Y/Y
Primary Activities
Mining
Electricity, water and gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Financial services and insurance
Real estate
Professional,
Management of companies
Services business
Education
Health care
Recreational, cultural and
Accommodation and .
Other Services government
Government
GVA
Taxes
GDP
Last data
Own estimate

2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
357,268
441,953
336,809
486,531
374,624
445,661
348,596
493,816
994,990 1,002,847 1,012,890 1,026,375
994,712 1,001,133 1,002,468 1,009,940
282,668
275,259
312,255
302,902
286,745
278,256
315,733
304,022
943,874
981,580
984,028 1,048,185
917,579
942,776
957,641 1,002,319
2,151,765 2,257,593 2,261,276 2,228,723 2,243,517 2,308,667 2,316,822 2,307,799
1,965,977 2,085,006 2,068,086 2,142,405 2,007,783 2,107,464 2,113,977 2,199,599
750,042
771,473
772,525
783,338
762,251
781,139
784,848
799,264
449,165
444,216
460,521
468,176
463,008
472,989
484,407
492,664
575,112
585,158
590,065
608,046
585,670
592,588
614,225
623,641
1,627,028 1,576,396 1,609,171 1,635,186 1,662,817 1,614,546 1,641,697 1,669,339
283,724
280,766
279,225
310,595
283,164
283,445
279,040
306,347
70,781
75,352
79,838
73,727
74,117
76,144
78,572
77,232
422,087
419,893
421,879
452,600
419,058
425,420
431,111
454,097
499,975
475,853
495,334
518,266
513,656
482,315
505,240
527,533
276,561
261,064
275,439
272,017
277,155
267,504
278,384
275,717
56,030
54,915
58,841
64,605
53,919
54,169
57,316
62,512
277,223
271,179
284,044
286,951
282,286
278,100
290,265
291,511
268,577
266,561
275,002
275,950
266,975
267,064
275,807
279,032
475,564
503,017
484,385
513,717
493,250
520,642
491,688
523,074
12,728,412 13,030,081 13,061,616 13,498,295 12,962,288 13,200,023 13,267,836 13,699,457
336,355
344,327
345,160
356,700
342,535
348,853
350,640
362,166
13,064,767 13,374,408 13,406,776 13,854,994 13,304,823 13,548,876 13,618,476 14,061,623
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
-2.20%
2.57%
0.83%
-0.24%
4.86%
0.84%
3.50%
1.50%
-1.81%
-2.08%
-1.84%
-0.91%
-0.03%
-0.17%
-1.03%
-1.60%
-1.12%
0.13%
0.80%
0.70%
1.44%
1.09%
1.11%
0.37%
-2.97%
-3.57%
-6.63%
-4.62%
-2.79%
-3.95%
-2.68%
-4.38%
-1.02%
2.01%
2.91%
1.87%
4.26%
2.26%
2.46%
3.55%
0.54%
3.74%
4.41%
2.38%
2.13%
1.08%
2.22%
2.67%
0.47%
1.84%
2.31%
1.30%
1.63%
1.25%
1.60%
2.03%
10.86%
6.33%
4.91%
-0.05%
3.08%
6.48%
5.19%
5.23%
3.82%
7.19%
3.09%
1.45%
1.84%
1.27%
4.09%
2.56%
1.81%
1.63%
1.46%
1.04%
2.20%
2.42%
2.02%
2.09%
0.98%
-0.64%
-3.04%
-1.31%
-0.20%
0.95%
-0.07%
-1.37%
-1.12%
-2.84%
-1.92%
-15.35%
4.71%
1.05%
-1.59%
4.75%
6.27%
3.79%
2.80%
2.78%
-0.72%
1.32%
2.19%
0.33%
-0.24%
1.78%
1.32%
1.54%
2.74%
1.36%
2.00%
1.79%
3.50%
2.59%
0.93%
1.05%
0.21%
2.47%
1.07%
1.36%
2.84%
-1.73%
-0.61%
-0.02%
-3.77%
-1.36%
-2.59%
-3.24%
3.91%
1.11%
1.69%
1.78%
1.83%
2.55%
2.19%
1.59%
2.36%
1.98%
1.73%
0.68%
-0.60%
0.19%
0.29%
1.12%
-0.05%
-1.35%
2.77%
1.94%
3.72%
3.50%
1.51%
1.82%
0.64%
1.60%
1.40%
0.66%
1.84%
1.30%
1.58%
1.49%
0.64%
1.60%
1.40%
0.66%
1.84%
1.31%
1.59%
1.53%
0.64%
1.60%
1.40%
0.66%
1.84%
1.30%
1.58%
1.49%

Seasonally adjusted data (own estimate)

Million (2008) pesos, SA
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
Primary Activities
395,412
413,481
403,911
409,757
411,575
418,254
415,279
417,588
Mining
1,010,947 1,001,733 1,007,227 1,017,196 1,008,167
999,165
998,213 1,002,708
Electricity, water and gas
291,064
292,712
293,241
296,068
296,311
296,025
295,373
297,049
Construction
1,003,953 1,002,449
968,477
982,788
969,454
964,926
944,627
941,310
Manufacturing
2,179,409 2,236,196 2,254,107 2,229,645 2,277,319 2,293,889 2,306,943 2,298,654
Trade
2,017,292 2,080,894 2,086,400 2,076,888 2,066,192 2,107,839 2,124,729 2,130,063
Transportation and Warehousing
760,194
771,284
774,626
771,275
775,194
781,881
785,363
785,063
Information
456,124
449,815
459,144
456,996
471,591
475,348
481,445
484,684
Financial services and insurance
578,502
600,976
584,474
594,428
590,690
607,783
606,116
611,536
Real estate
1,606,170 1,606,704 1,616,458 1,618,449 1,643,841 1,643,621 1,648,794 1,652,144
Professional,
292,337
286,332
285,052
290,590
291,091
287,151
285,838
287,914
Management of companies
76,840
76,463
78,080
68,314
79,255
77,358
77,172
72,280
Services business
427,528
426,062
425,114
437,755
423,468
430,777
433,234
442,207
Education
490,785
499,834
498,110
500,699
503,651
507,506
508,086
509,500
Health care
272,312
268,490
271,793
272,486
274,131
273,043
275,230
276,356
Recreational, cultural and
58,939
57,224
58,502
59,725
56,158
56,412
57,170
58,176
Accommodation and .
278,943
276,924
279,801
283,729
283,067
284,423
285,948
288,723
Other Services government
270,716
271,683
273,097
270,594
269,381
272,033
274,018
273,445
Government
488,847
483,817
501,389
502,632
506,814
502,243
507,844
511,753
GVA
12,956,313 13,103,073 13,119,003 13,140,014 13,197,352 13,279,679 13,311,421 13,341,152
Taxes
342,417
346,256
346,723
347,146
348,822
350,993
351,843
352,536
GDP
13,298,730 13,449,329 13,465,725 13,487,160 13,546,174 13,630,672 13,663,264 13,693,688
Q/Q (own estimate)
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
Primary Activities
-3.82%
4.57%
-2.31%
1.45%
0.44%
1.62%
-0.71%
0.56%
Mining
-1.32%
-0.91%
0.55%
0.99%
-0.89%
-0.89%
-0.10%
0.45%
Electricity, water and gas
-0.74%
0.57%
0.18%
0.96%
0.08%
-0.10%
-0.22%
0.57%
Construction
-2.40%
-0.15%
-3.39%
1.48%
-1.36%
-0.47%
-2.10%
-0.35%
Manufacturing
-0.38%
2.61%
0.80%
-1.09%
2.14%
0.73%
0.57%
-0.36%
Trade
-0.96%
3.15%
0.26%
-0.46%
-0.52%
2.02%
0.80%
0.25%
Transportation and Warehousing
-0.17%
1.46%
0.43%
-0.43%
0.51%
0.86%
0.45%
-0.04%
Information
-0.76%
-1.38%
2.07%
-0.47%
3.19%
0.80%
1.28%
0.67%
Financial services and insurance
-0.30%
3.88%
-2.75%
1.70%
-0.63%
2.89%
-0.27%
0.89%
Real estate
0.30%
0.03%
0.61%
0.12%
1.57%
-0.01%
0.31%
0.20%
Professional,
-1.05%
-2.05%
-0.45%
1.94%
0.17%
-1.35%
-0.46%
0.73%
Management of companies
-5.18%
-0.49%
2.11%
-12.51%
16.02%
-2.39%
-0.24%
-6.34%
Services business
-0.06%
-0.34%
-0.22%
2.97%
-3.26%
1.73%
0.57%
2.07%
Education
-0.61%
1.84%
-0.35%
0.52%
0.59%
0.77%
0.11%
0.28%
Health care
0.96%
-1.40%
1.23%
0.25%
0.60%
-0.40%
0.80%
0.41%
Recreational, cultural and
-1.74%
-2.91%
2.23%
2.09%
-5.97%
0.45%
1.34%
1.76%
Accommodation and .
0.14%
-0.72%
1.04%
1.40%
-0.23%
0.48%
0.54%
0.97%
Other Services government
0.71%
0.36%
0.52%
-0.92%
-0.45%
0.98%
0.73%
-0.21%
Government
-0.38%
-1.03%
3.63%
0.25%
0.83%
-0.90%
1.12%
0.77%
GVA
-0.72%
1.13%
0.12%
0.16%
0.44%
0.62%
0.24%
0.22%
Taxes
-0.71%
1.12%
0.13%
0.12%
0.48%
0.62%
0.24%
0.20%
GDP
-0.72%
1.13%
0.12%
0.16%
0.44%
0.62%
0.24%
0.22%
Last data SA is our own estimate
Own estimate
Also see: Mexico - Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE)