RESEARCH POSTERPRESENTATIONDESIGN 2012

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Former Indiana state treasurer and US Senate
candidate Richard Mourdock courted similar
controversy when he responded to a question
about rape and abortion during a televised
debate. Much like Akin, Mourdocks reply led
to intense attention and criticism:
even if life begins in that horrible
situation of rape, that it is something
that God intended to happen."
Indiana: something that God
intended to happen
Former US Representative Todd Akin
represented the Republican party in Missouri
for US Senate. During an interview, Akin was
asked whether women who are raped and
become pregnant should have the option of
abortion. His response created a firestorm of
attention and critque:
If its a legitimate rape, the female
body has ways to try to shut that
whole thing down.
Missouri: legitimate rape
Analysis
Both states have a long history of voting
predominantly Republican. To examine how
the statements by the candidates may have
impacted the outcomes of each election, we
assessed the change in support for the
Republican candidate from the previous US
Senate election in each state; both elections
were in 2010 and both were won by
Republican candidates.

We mapped these shifts in support by county
using GIS and used the resulting spatial
patterns to conclude that the statements had
significant impacts, but that the impacts
varied between states and were unevenly
distributed within each state.
Department of Geography, Ball State University
Katelyn Himes and Steven M. Radil
The geography of social politics: Rape and the 2012 election
The Republican vote declined in all 115 counties in Missouri
and in 88 out of the 92 counties in Indiana.

The average decline in Missouri (30.4%) was more than twice
the average decline in Indiana (14.6%).

Indianas decline was centered on urban areas; rural counties
in Missouri were more likely to see large declines than were
rural counties in Indiana.
Percent Change in Republican Votes from 2010 to 2012
The 2012 election and rape
A series of controversial statements about
rape, pregnancy, and abortion by Republican
US Senate candidates Todd Akin (Missouri) and
Richard Mourdock (Indiana) dominated
headlines during the 2012 election cycle. The
surrounding controversies have been
identified by some as a principal factor in
their election losses which helped Democrats
retain control of the Senate. The statements
may have also impacted the presidential race
as women supported Barack Obama by a
significant margin.
We explored the question of the impact of
the controversies on the Senate elections by
considering the geography of the vote
within each state.
Findings
Support for the Republican US Senate
candidates dropped starkly in both states
from 2010 to 2012. However, the average drop
in support in Missouri was more than double
that in Indiana. Within each state, different
patterns emerged as well.

In Indiana, the largest decline in support
came from counties near urban places while
some rural counties actually had increased
support. In Missouri, support declined more
uniformly and was less centered on urban
areas; rural counties were more likely to
realize declines than in Indiana.

Conclusions
Both candidates controversial comments led
to a large loss in support, but those impacts
varied between and within each state.
Despite the emphasis on economic and
pocketbook issues by national candidates in
the 2012 election cycle and a history of
Republican dominance in these two states,
social issues clearly mattered in these
particular elections.