Emerging Markets Insight - India Transportation and Infrastructure Sector Report Segmentation

- 1 -
Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited.

Copyright 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.
Produced by:
Agriculture
Sector
India

April 2014

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-mdidemo from 115.111.95.19 on 2014-06-18 12:26:25 EDT. DownloadPDF.
Downloaded by in-mdidemo from 115.111.95.19 at 2014-06-18 12:26:25 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited.
- 15 -
II. Farming
Indias fiscal year runs from Apr 1 to March 31. Thus, FY 2014 (also called fiscal 2014) means Apr 1, 2013 Mar 31, 2014. In Indian documents, FY (fiscal) 2014 is also labeled FY13-14.
The remaining nine months of calendar 2014, i.e. Apr-Dec, belong to fiscal year 2015.
In order to better align with calendar years and make international comparisons more meaningful, in the Major Players section of this report, Emerging Markets Insight has chosen to label data by
the year in which most of the result occurred. Unless otherwise stated, in the Major Players section of this report, 2012, for example, means the 12 months between Apr 1, 2012 - Mar 31, 2013, or
what in India is referred to as FY 2013. This applies to Indian companies only and may not apply to companies with global operations, which may be presented in this report.
When sources have not provided details on their year labeling policy, year labels in graphs and tables featured in this report appear as provided by the source.
- 16 -
Source:
Output
Comments
Product-wise farming output
Farming output (constant prices FY2004-2005)
Farming output, current prices
CEIC
High product prices push up farming output in nominal terms
and result in two-digit annual growth rates. The increase in the
output quantities is however moderate and varies among
products.
Most of the farming output comes from cereals, followed by
fruits and vegetables.

5,861
6,816
7,570
8,588
10,519
12.0%
16.3%
11.6% 11.6% 11.6%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Output, INR bn Change yoy, %
5,031
5,326
5,250 5,241
5,761
3.8%
5.9%
-1.4%
-0.2%
9.9%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Output, INR bn Change yoy, %
Cereals 28.6%
Fruits and
Vegetables
23.9%
Oilseeds 9.5%
Fibres 6.6%
Sugar 6.5%
Other Crops
6.0%
Pulses 4.8%
Spices 4.4%
Coffee, Tea,
Tabacco 3.5%
Others 6.2%
- 17 -
Source:
Sown Area
Total sown area
Farm Crops Planting Structure Comments
CEIC
There hasnt been substantial change in the sown area in
India, the total acreage standing at about 120-127 mn ha.
About 60% (ca. 70 mn ha) of the area is sown with kharif
crop (planted for autumn harvest, also called summer or
monsoon crop), the remaining 40% - with rabi (crop sown
in winter and harvested in the spring).
About 60% of the cropped area is rainfed, i.e. subject to
weather conditions, which hinders the realization of
maximum yield.
1
2
3
.
2

1
2
2
.
8

1
2
3
.
9

1
2
1
.
0

1
2
3
.
6

1
2
3
.
9

1
2
5
.
2

1
2
3
.
1

1
2
1
.
1

1
2
2
.
8

1
1
3
.
9

1
2
3

1
2
0
.
1

1
2
1
.
6

1
2
3
.
7

1
2
4
.
1

1
2
2
.
9

1
2
1
.
3

1
2
6
.
7

1
2
4
.
8

1
2
0
.
2

1.1%
-0.3%
0.9%
-2.3%
2.1%
0.2%
1.1%
-1.6% -1.7%
1.4%
-7.3%
8.4%
-2.7%
1.3%
1.7%
0.3%
-1.0% -1.2%
4.4%
-1.5%
-3.7%
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
Area, mn ha Change yoy, %
Coarse cereals
22.2%
Main Oilseeds
21.4%
Pulses 19.2%
Other Cash
Crops 12.9%
Others 24.3%
- 18 -
Source:
Production and Yield
Farming production
Yield
CEIC
1
7
9
.
5

1
8
4
.
3

1
9
1
.
5

1
8
0
.
4

1
9
9
.
4

1
9
2
.
3

2
0
3
.
6

2
0
9
.
8

1
9
6
.
8

2
1
2
.
9

1
7
4
.
8

2
1
3
.
2

1
9
8
.
4

2
0
8
.
6

2
1
7
.
3

2
3
0
.
8

2
3
4
.
5

2
1
8
.
1

2
4
4
.
5

2
5
9
.
3

2
5
5
.
4

6.6%
2.7%
3.9%
-5.8%
10.5%
-3.6%
5.9%
3.0%
-6.2%
8.1%
-17.9%
22.0%
-7.0%
5.2%
4.2%
6.2%
1.6%
-7.0%
12.1%
6.0%
-1.5%
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
Production, mn tonnes Change yoy, %
1
,
4
5
7

1
,
5
0
1

1
,
5
4
6

1
,
4
9
1

1
,
6
1
4

1
,
5
5
2

1
,
6
2
7

1
,
7
0
4

1
,
6
2
6

1
,
7
3
4

1
,
5
3
5

1
,
7
2
7

1
,
6
5
2

1
,
7
1
5

1
,
7
5
6

1
,
8
6
0

1
,
9
0
9

1
,
7
9
8

1
,
9
3
0

2
,
0
7
8

2
,
1
2
5

5.4% 3.0% 3.0%
-3.6%
8.2%
-3.8%
4.8% 4.7%
-4.6%
6.6%
-11.5%
12.5%
-4.3%
3.8%
2.4%
5.9%
2.6%
-5.8%
7.3% 7.7%
2.3%
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
Yield, kg/ha Change yoy, %
- 19 -
Source:
Food Balance, Targets and Achievement
Target - achieved production for major crops , mn tonnes
Food balance for 2013-2014 marketing year, thou tonnes
CEIC; Ministry of Agriculture Agricultural outlook and situation analysis report Oct-Dec 2013; *marketing year 2014-2015
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
target achieved diff. target achieved diff. target achieved diff. target achieved diff. target achieved diff.
Rice 97.0 99.2 -2.2 100.5 89.1 11.4 102.0 96.0 6.0 102.0 104.3 -2.3 104.0 104.4 -0.4
Wheat 78.5 80.7 -2.2 79.0 80.8 -1.8 82.0 86.9 -4.9 84.0 93.9 -9.9 88.0 92.5 -4.5
Coearse Cereals 42.0 40.0 2.0 43.1 33.6 9.6 44.0 43.4 0.3 42.0 42.0 0.0 44.0 40.1 3.9
Pulses 15.5 14.6 0.9 16.5 14.7 1.8 16.5 18.2 -1.7 17.0 17.2 -0.2 18.2 18.5 -0.2
Foodgrains 233.0 234.5 -1.5 239.1 218.1 21.0 244.5 244.5 -0.3 245.0 257.4 -12.4 254.2 255.4 -1.1
Oilseeds 31.8 27.7 4.0 31.6 24.9 6.7 33.2 32.5 0.7 33.6 30.0 3.6 33.5 31.0 2.5
Sugarcane 340.0 285.0 55.0 340.0 292.3 47.7 315.0 342.4 -27.4 350.0 357.7 -7.7 352.0 339.0 13.0
Cotton 26.0 22.3 3.7 26.0 24.0 2.0 26.0 33.0 -7.0 34.0 35.2 -1.2 35.0 34.0 1.0
Jute and mesta 11.0 10.4 0.6 11.2 11.8 -0.6 11.5 10.6 0.9 12.3 11.6 0.7 12.0 11.3 0.7
Rice Wheat* Maize Pulses Edible oil Sugar Onion Potato
Beginning stock 23,000 1,900 550 1,966 1,643 8,800 657 2,450
Production 160,500 97,500 23,500 19,700 10,000 24,500 18,300 44,800
Imports 0 0 0 3,500 10,300 0 0 0
Total supply 129,500 116,500 24,050 25,164 21,943 33,300 18,967 47,250
Domestic consumption 98,000 92,500 19,850 23,000 19,200 23,000 17,310 44,550
Exports 9,000 4,000 3,000 200 100 2,000 1,000 250
Total Utilisation 107,000 96,500 22,850 23,200 19,300 25,000 18,310 44,800
Ending stock 22,500 20,000 1,200 1,964 2,643 8,300 657 2,450
- 20 -
Comments
Source:
Fertilizers - Consumption
Fertilizers consumption grew at a CAGR of 2.5% in the period 2007-2012. The annual rate of growth has been decelerating since 2008 and
moved to negative territory in the last couple of years.
The highest consumption is in the regions of Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.
Type-wise fertilizer consumption, mn tonnes Region-wise fertilizers consumption, mn tonnes
CEIC
5.5
6.5 6.6
7.2 7.3
5.5
6.7
7.2
8.1
9.2 8.6
7.6
7.0
7.4
7.8
7.9
7.9
8.3
3.2
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
0.25
0.26
0.28
0.31
0.31
0.32
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
North-East
Zone
East Zone
North Zone
West Zone
South Zone
115.3
127.2
135.3
146.3
139.7
128.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Nitrogen Phosphate Potash Consumption kg per hectare
- 21 -
Comments
Source:
Fertilizers Production and Import

Fertilizers production grew at a compound rate of 1.5% in the 2007-2012 period and recorded an annual decline in the last two years.
Thus, the intensive use of fertilizers was not covered by respective increase in production. As a result in 2012 domestic made fertilizers
catered for only 60% of the demand, the share dropping from about 90% in 2002.
Production, mn tonnes Import, mn tonnes
CEIC
10.9
10.9
11.9
12.2
12.3
12.2
3.8
3.5
4.3
4.2
4.1
3.5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Phospate Nitrogen
3.7
3.8
3.4
4.6
5.6
4.8
1.3
3.1
2.8
3.7
4.3
2.8
2.7
3.4
2.9
3.9
2.5
1.6
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Potash Phosphate Nitrogen
- 22 -
Comments
Source:
Seeds

Global seed market growth rate decelerated from 11.9% yoy in 2011 to 8.8% in 2012.
India is among the top five players, with market share of about 5%.
Global Seed Market, USD bn Country-wise global seed market breakdown
Global Seed Market Report 2013 - Philipps McDougal
31
35
37.6
2010 2011 2012 USA 28%
China 22%
France 6%
Brazil 5%
India 5% Japan 3%
Germany 3%
Rest of the
world 29%
- 23 -
Source:
Minimum Support Prices
Comments
MSP for rabi season crops (INR per tonne)
MSP for kharif season crops (INR per tonne)
MSP for other crops
Ministry of Agriculture - crop years
Minimum support price (MSP) is a measure introduced by Indian
government to protect agriculture producers. MSP is set price at which
the government purchases the products, whatever their market price is,
thus ensuring farmers certain profit. The procured products are later
sold to weaker sections of the population throughout India at affordable
prices.
The first MSP were introduced in the late 60s for the purchase of wheat,
but have thereafter spread over 25 main crops (14 kharif crops; 7 rabi
crops and 4 others).
Prices are introduces at the beginning of every harvest season i.e.
August and December.
MSP are constantly increasing, thus supporting the food inflation in the
country.
1
1
,
0
0
0

7
,
8
0
0

2
1
,
0
0
0

2
2
,
5
0
0

1
8
,
5
0
0

1
8
,
0
0
0

1
2
,
8
5
0

9
,
8
0
0
2
8
,
0
0
0

2
8
,
0
0
0

2
5
,
0
0
0

2
5
,
0
0
0

1
3
,
5
0
0

9
,
8
0
0

3
0
,
0
0
0

2
9
,
0
0
0

3
0
,
0
0
0

2
8
,
0
0
0

1
4
,
0
0
0

1
1
,
0
0
0
3
1
,
0
0
0

2
9
,
5
0
0

3
0
,
5
0
0

3
0
,
0
0
0

Wheat Barley Gram Masur Rapeseed/
Mustard
Safflower
2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
8
,
8
0
0

8
,
8
0
0

2
5
,
0
0
0

3
0
,
0
0
0

2
3
,
5
0
0

1
4
,
4
0
0

9
,
8
0
0

9
,
8
0
0

2
8
,
0
0
0

3
3
,
0
0
0

2
8
,
0
0
0

1
6
,
9
0
0

1
5
,
0
0
0

1
1
,
7
5
0

3
6
,
0
0
0

3
9
,
0
0
0

3
7
,
0
0
0

2
2
,
4
0
0

1
5
,
0
0
0

1
3
,
1
0
0

3
7
,
0
0
0

4
0
,
0
0
0

4
0
,
0
0
0

2
5
,
6
0
0

Jowar
(Hybrid)
Maize Cotton
medium
staple
Cotton long
sstaple
Groundnut Soyabean
Yellow
2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014
4
4
,
5
0
0

4
7
,
7
5
0

1
5
,
7
5
0

1
,
3
9
1
4
5
,
2
5
0

5
3
,
5
0
0

1
6
,
7
5
0

1
,
4
5
0

5
1
,
0
0
0

5
3
,
5
0
0

2
2
,
0
0
0

1
,
7
0
0

5
2
,
5
0
0

5
5
,
0
0
0

2
4
,
0
0
0

2
,
2
0
0

Copra (millling) Copra (Ball) Jute Sugarcane
2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
- 24 -
Source:
Cereals
Sown area (5 year average) and yield
Comments
Production (mn tonnes)
CEIC; Kharif crop-summer crop; Rabi crop- winter crop; Sorghum-Jowar
Due to the specific climate of the country, two harvests are
possible. The fist in the monsoon season (summer harvest) and
the second in the winter. Although the output is largely
dependent on the weather conditions, the two harvests often
offset each other.
28.9 29.2 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.7
1,142
1,231
1,277 1,290
1,364
1,444
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sown area, mn ha Yield, kg/ha
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Rice Kharif 82.7 84.9 75.9 80.7 92.8 92.4
Rice Rabi 14.0 14.3 13.2 15.3 12.5 12.9
Jowar Kharif 4.1 3.1 2.8 3.4 3.3 2.8
Jowar 7.9 7.2 6.7 7.0 6.0 5.3
Maize Kharif 15.1 14.1 12.3 16.6 16.5 16.2
Maize Rabi 3.8 5.6 4.4 5.1 5.3 6.1
Wheat Rabi 78.6 80.7 80.8 86.9 94.9 93.5
Total cereals
production
230.8 234.5 218.1 244.5 259.3 257.1
Rice stock
(end-Mar)
13.8 21.6 26.7 28.8 33.4 35.5
Wheat stock
(end-Mar)
5.8 13.4 16.1 15.4 20.0 24.2
- 25 -
Source:
Comments
Prices
Government measures to curb inflation in India have had only partial effect and although food inflation fall below 10% in the past years, it remains
significant. After peeking up at 20% in Nov 2013, food prices lower to 8% in March. Recent weather conditions (unseasonal rain and hail storms) have
damaged crops, vegetables and fruits harvest and pushed up prices, especially of melon and cucumbers. After the unexpected rains in March, the rain in
the monsoon season will be very important for restraining food prices growth. If the period comes dry, the Reserve Bank might be forced to rise interest
rates again to push down inflation (but this would not support growth). Moreover since the government subsidizes food for big part of the population, the
inflation has direct negative effect on the budget balance. (5.2% of GDP deficit in 2012). Food inflation also hurts consumption, the balance of payments
and monetary policy flexibility.
Annual average and monthly inflation of main grain crops (yoy, %)
CEIC; EMIS calculation; The Wall Street Journal
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dec'13 Jan'14
Grains Cereals Jowar Maize Barley
- 26 -
Source:
Wheat
Indias share in world wheat export in value terms, 2012
India is among the top three global producers of wheat.
Yet it is not a major exporter since most of the output is
consumed domestically. Local needs are for about 76-77
mn tonnes per annum.
The major producing regions are Uttar Pradesh, Haryana,
Panjab, Rajastan and Madhya Pradesh.
In 2012-2013 wheat output reached 94.9 mn tonnes a
record high level. It is expected that the harvest in 2013-
2014 will be better, as preliminary estimations are for
annual increase of about 3.5 mn tonnes to 96.0 mn.
The average yieled will ease to 3.0 tonnes per hectare,
but due to favourable weather conditions and higher
support prices the sown area was expanded by 6% yoy to
a record 31.5 mn acres.
However the stronger harvest might not lead to equal
boost in exports as domestic procurement prices are high,
while international prices are expected to remain
depressed and export will not be so attractive for
producers.
On the other hand restricted export from Ukraine may
lead to wheat price hikes and increased export from India.
From Feb 2007 up to Sep 2011 the export of wheat from
India was prohibited. The ban was lifted in 2011 but only
for private traders. In 2012 the government allowed
shipments from state warehouses and state-supported
trader could export up to 2mn tonnes via tenders annualy.
Domestic wheat prices (yoy change, %)
COMTRADE, CEIC; EMIS calculations; Reuters
7.3
9.9
12.8
3.0
-1.8
15.5
7.6
6.8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dec'13 Jan'14
26.6%
16.8%
13.9%
12.6%
9.3%
6.1%
4.8%
3.3%
2.8%
E
U
U
S
A
A
u
s
t
r
a
l
i
a
C
a
n
a
d
a
R
u
s
s
i
a
A
r
g
e
n
t
i
n
a
U
k
r
a
i
n
e
K
a
z
a
h
s
t
a
n
I
n
d
i
a
- 27 -
Source:
Rice
Indias share in world rice export in value terms, 2012
The major rice producing regions are West Bengal,
Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. About 70% of
the global basmati rice is produced in India.
India is top rice exporter, holding more than a quarter
of the world market. Although domestic prices have
been below international, it wasnt until the export
ban was lifted in Sep 2011, that India could cash on
the price advantage. The country exported record
high 7.2 bn in 2011 and a further increase was
estimated for 2012. In Apr-Dec 2013 exports of
basmati rice have risen 46 % to USD 3.47bn,
compared with USD 2.37bn a year ago. Exports of
non-basmati rice rose 7% yoy to USD 2.13bn from
USD 1.99 bn in Apr-Dec 2012. According to the
president of All India Rice Exporters Association, rice
exports might rise 7.8% in FY2013-2014, with
basmati rice sales being 14% up yoy (to 4 mn
tonnes), while non-basmati rise exports will be 4%
higher (to 7 mn tonnes).
The increasing stocks of Thai basmati rise, along
with the falling global prices will push the competition
for India exports.
Since rice acreage could not be expanded much
further, future increase in rice production could come
only from yield enhancing technologies (hybrid rice
cultivation) or development of the irrigation system.
Domestic rice prices (yoy change, %)
COMTRADE, CEIC; EMIS calculations; Bloomberg
11.3
14.8
12.3
5.9
3.1
12.7
13.5 13.4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dec'13 Jan'14
27.1%
20.5%
11.7%
9.2%
8.3%
7.3%
2.4%
1.6%
India Thailand Vietnam USA Pakistan EU Brazil Australia
- 28 -
Comments
Source:
Grain Crops: Pulses
The world production of tur (pigeon pea or gungo pea) is around 3.25 mn tonnes per annum. Due to favourable climate conditions, the main producers of
this crop are the countries in the Indian subcontinent, Africa and Central America. Among them, India is the leader, producing about 85% of the worlds
total amount. The crop is mainly grown in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. Pigeon pea accounts for app. 20% of the pulses
sown in India. Despite the huge production, as domestic demand is high, India does not export tur, but import additional quantities from Myanmar and
Tanzania to cover consumption.
The same is also true for the other pulses. India is net importer of those products to fill the production-consumption gap. The import duty is zero.
Sown area (5 year average) and yield Pulses production (mn tonnes)
CEIC; CNR; Kharif crop-summer crop; Rabi crop- winter crop;
22.2
22.5
23.1
22.8
22.9
23.7
24.0
593 594
610
614
625
644
662
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Kharif 6.4 4.7 4.2 7.1 6.1 5.9
Rabi 8.4 9.9 10.5 11.1 11.0 12.4
Tur 3.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 2.7 3.0
Gram 5.7 7.1 7.5 8.2 7.7 8.8
Total 14.8 14.6 14.7 18.2 17.1 18.3
- 29 -
Comments
Source:
Oil-breading Crops
Soyabean accounts for almost half of the total oilseed crops production in the country. The crop is produced in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra
and Rajastan among others.
India is among the top five exporters of soyabean meal with its main partners being the other Asia countries.
Regarding trade policy, there is a 30% duty on oilseeds imports, zero duty on crude oils and 7.5% on refined oils.
The export of edible oils is prohibited, while oilmeals trade is fully liberalized.
Sown area (5 year average) and yield for Nine main Oilseeds Oilseeds production (mn tonnes)
CEIC; Kharif crop-summer crop; Rabi crop- winter crop;
24.6
25.4
26.5
27.2
26.9
26.8
26.8
918 918
995
985
1,000
1,039
1,081
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Kharif 20.7 17.8 15.7 21.9 20.7 20.8
Rabi 9.0 9.9 9.2 10.6 9.1 10.2
Groundnut Kharif 9.2 7.2 5.4 8.3 7.0 4.7
Groundnut Rabi 7.4 5.6 3.9 6.6 5.1 3.2
Castorseed Kharif 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.5
Sesamun Kharif 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.4 2.3 2.0
Rapeseed and
Mustard Rabi
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Sunflower Kharif 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2
Sunflower Rabi 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4
Soyabean Kharif 11.0 9.9 10.0 12.7 12.2 14.7
Total 29.8 27.7 24.9 32.5 29.8 30.9
- 30 -
Source:
Cotton
Sown area and cotton yield
Cotton is among the leading crops in India and is
especially important for the textile sector, as it
accounts for more than half of the fibre consumption.
Its production, however, is largely dependent on
weather conditions with nearly 65% of the cultivation
area being rainfed.
The cotton season 2012-2013 started with delayed
sowing in North India due to late harvesting, while
switching to other competing crops lead to lower
acreage of about 6%. Moreover the delayed
monsoon across the cotton belt and the southern
states also resulted in lower acreage. The hectares
were 3-12 % down yoy in all states except for
Andhra Pradesh, where the acreage was increased
by more than 20% to 2.3 mn hectres. Overall the
sown area decreased by app 10% in 2012.
The lower acreage was reflected in lower production
and import of cotton in some staples. At the same
time huge increase of import by China added to the
price increase.
Cotton output (mn bales)
CEIC; Cotton Advisory Board
9.4 9.4
10.3
11.1
12.2
11.6
554
524
503
517
493
489
2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013
Area, mn hectares Yields, kg per hectare
13.7
16.4
18.5
22.6
25.9
22.3
24.0
33.0
35.2
34.2
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
- 31 -
Source:
Sugar
Sown area (5 year average) and yield
Sugarcane production was liberalized lately, as the
government abolished the requirement for mills to provide
10% of their production at a set rate to the Public
Distribution System. This allows firms to invest more in
upgrading and expanding their operations and is expected
to bring positive development of the sector.
The Indian government has had a very inconsistent policy
regarding sugarcane trade. Since 2006 a ban on exports
has been imposed and lifted several times.
At the moment, the domestic sugar supply situation is
favourable due to lager carryover stocks despite a decline
in production.
Export prospects however are not good, with higher
production cost and prevailing lower international prices.
According to the Agriculture Ministry, Indias
competitiveness in the international sugar market will
continue to be tempered by lower production, high
domestic prices and increasing sugarcane prices in the
context of rising global production and record stocks
leading to declining international prices. Moreover, as
most international trade in sugar is in raw form against
Indias production of white sugar, Indian sugar mills mightl
have to think of diversifying into raw sugar production to
grab market share.
In Feb 2014 the government decides to provide an export
subsidy of INR 3,333 per tonne for exports of 4 million
tonnes of raw sugar in two years.
Sugarcane output (mn tonnes)
CEIC; Ministry of Agriculture report Oct-Dec 2013
4.15
4.29
4.40
4.50
4.60
4.74 4.71
64,473
64,969
66,151
67,024
67,929
68,554
69,118
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
233.9
237.1
281.2
355.5
348.2
285.0
292.3
342.4
361.0
341.2
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
- 32 -
Source:
Tobacco and Vegetables
Tobacco area, production and yield index (1993=100)
Other fruits and vegetables
Onion and potato
CEIC
88
84
96
105
141 141
89
84
94
107
119 119
99
88
102
110
119 119
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Production Area Yield
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
B
a
n
a
n
a

Area (thoun ha) 533 709 770 830 796 776
Production (thou tonnes) 17 647 26 217 26 470 29 780 28 455 26 509
Yield (kg/ha) 33 141 36 977 34 363 35 880 35 725 34 161
B
l
a
c
k

P
e
p
p
e
r

Area (thou ha) 197 239 196 184 200 125
Production (thou tonnes) 47 47 51 52 41 53
Yield (kg/ha) 239 199 260 183 203 422
G
a
r
l
i
c

Area (thou ha) 205 181 165 201 243 248
Production (thou tonnes) 1 068 821 834 1 058 1 228 1 259
Yield (kg/ha) 5 210 4 535 5 059 5 264 5 065 5 088
S
w
e
e
t

P
o
t
a
t
o

Area (thou ha) 106 124 119 113 114 114
Production (thou tonnes) 943 1 120 1 095 1 047 1 071 1 071
Yield (kg/ha) 8 892 9 032 9 202 9 265 9 364 9 364

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
P
o
t
a
t
o
e

Area (mn ha) 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0
Production (mn
tonnes)
28.5 34.4 36.6 42.3 41.5 45.3
Yield (kg/ha) 18 331 18 810 19 951 22 724 21 753 22 784
O
n
i
o
n

Area (mn ha) 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1
Production (mn
tonnes)
9.1 13.5 12.2 15.1 17.5 16.8
Yield (kg/ha) 12 974 16 260 16 079 14 210 16 109 16 010
- 33 -
Source:
Price Dynamics
Oil breading seeds (yoy change, %)
Cotton, Sugar , Tobacco (yoy change, %)
Pulses (yoy change, %)
Fruit, Vegetables (yoy change, %)
CEIC; Emerging Markets Insight calculations
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dec'13 Jan'14
Raw Cotton Sugarcane Tobacco
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dec'13 Jan'14
Vegetables Fruits Potatoes Onion
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dec'13 Jan'14
Oil seeds Rape and Mustard Safflower Soyabean
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dec'13 Jan'14
Pulses Gram Masur
- 34 -
Source:
Government Undertakings
NAFED
The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India is the nodal procurement agency for oilseeds and
pulses. When the market prices for oilseeds and pulses drops below the government-set MSP, it purchases quantities from
the farmers.

CCI
Founded in 1970, the Cotton Corporation of India is a Government undertaking, controlled by the Ministry of Textile.
Its main function is to undertake price support operations, without any quantitative limit, whenever the market prices of
seed cotton reach the support prices announced by the Government. Those purchases are made at CCI own risk. The
Corporation also buys cotton to meet export commitments
FCI
The price support operations in the foodgrains segment are conducted by the Food Corporation of India. Headquartered in
Channai, the corporation has five zonal offices and 50 regional offices. It purchases about 20% of the wheat harvest and
around 15% of the rice output in India.
The following companies purchase farm-products on MSP and distribute them throughout India. The difference between the purchase and the
sale price is covered by the Government through subsidy.
Company data
- 35 -
III. Livestock and Fishery
Indias fiscal year runs from Apr 1 to March 31. Thus, FY 2014 (also called fiscal 2014) means Apr 1, 2013 Mar 31, 2014. In Indian documents, FY (fiscal) 2014 is also labeled FY13-14.
The remaining nine months of calendar 2014, i.e. Apr-Dec, belong to fiscal year 2015.
In order to better align with calendar years and make international comparisons more meaningful, in the Major Players section of this report, Emerging Markets Insight has chosen to label data by
the year in which most of the result occurred. Unless otherwise stated, in the Major Players section of this report, 2012, for example, means the 12 months between Apr 1, 2012 - Mar 31, 2013, or
what in India is referred to as FY 2013. This applies to Indian companies only and may not apply to companies with global operations, which may be presented in this report.
When sources have not provided details on their year labeling policy, year labels in graphs and tables featured in this report appear as provided by the source.
- 36 -
Comments
Source:
Livestock Output
Although it is not the leading agriculture segment, livestock breeding is gradually expanding and increase in importance for the India economy.
In regional terms, livestock breeding is concentrated in southern India.
Livestock Output (INR bn) Product-wise output distribution
CEIC
1
,
9
3
5

2
,
1
5
4

2
,
4
7
2

2
,
9
2
1

3
,
4
6
1

4
,
0
1
2

7.5%
11.3%
14.8%
18.2%
18.5%
15.9%
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
Output, INR bn Change yoy,%
Milk 65.8%
Meat 19.4%
Dung 6.9%
Egg 3.8%
Other 4.1%
- 37 -
Source:
Livestock Production
Livestock production Milk production (thou tonnes)
CEIC; Business Standard; Reuters
Milk is the main product of the husbandry subsector and most
of it comes from caws.
In India, caws are breeded only for milk. Caw slaughter is
prohibited in most of the states, except for Kerala, West Bengal
and the north-eastern region.
In all, India has half the buffaloes in the world, according to the
Indian Council of Agricultural Research, and the largest number
of cattle, with 327 mn heads, according to the US department
of Agriculture.
Milk availability per capita has increased by more than 25% in
2002-2010 to 281 grams per day.
Exports of dairy products recorded 138 % growth in Apr-Dec
2013 at USD 435.93mn, against USD183.24mn in the
corresponding period last year.
46,822
49,810 52,200 54,903
57,770 59,805
22,809
23,650
24,238
25,348
26,695
27,421
56,630
57,895
59,758
62,350
65,352
67,675
4,481
4,478
4,467
4,594
4,782
4,950
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Goat
Buffaloe
Non
Descript
Cows
Crossed
Cows
53,565 55,562
60,267
63,024
66,450
69,731
4,009 4,280 4,566 4,869 5,514 5,948
130,742
135,833
140,663
147,195
154,599
159,851
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Eggs (mn units) Meat (thou tonnes) Milk (thou tonnes)
- 38 -
Source:
Livestock Production (contd)
Eggs production (mn unit) Meat production (thou tonnes)
CEIC; The New Indian Express
Egg production in India increased by a compound rate of 5.4%
in 2007-2012. Among the two main segments, duck eggs
expanded by 4.9% in terms of volume, while fowls by 4.8%.
Fowls eggs are produced predominantly in Andhra Pradesh
and Tamil Nadu, while duck eggs in West Bengal. The share
of the later segment is however less than 3% of all eggs
produced in India.
India is top exporter of beef. It is mainly produced in Uttar
Pradesh and, as the country is very sensitive to beef eating due
to religious reasons, about 70% of the output is placed on the
international market.
In 2012 beef export is estimated at 1.89mn tonnes, which is a
50% increase over the past five years.
Poultry export amounted to 3.5 mn tonnes, placing India among
the top three global exporters following the USA and Brazil.
The major meat export markets are the USA, Europe, as well
as the Gulf and South-east Asia countries.
Kerala is the biggest meat-consumer region in the country.
1,516 1,576 1,539 1,604 1,703 1,927
52,049
53,986
58,728
61,420
64,747 65,643
53,565
55,562
60,267
63,024
66,450
69,731
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Fowls
Ducks
Total
232 250 223 211 286 327
557 623 670
805
976
1,104
294
312 341
369
399
441
769
786
814
846
905
941
370
388
391
402
459
453
1,755
1,884
2,087
2,193
2,483
2,682
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Poultry
Pig
Goat
Sheep
Buffalo
Cattle
- 39 -
Source:
Fishery
Comments
Fisheries export
Fisheries output (INR bn)
Fish production (thou tonnes)
CEIC
Fish production in India increased by a compound rate of 5% in
2007-2011. Among the two segments, inland fishery expanded
by 5.9% in terms of volume, while marine by 3.7%.
Production is concentrated in Andhra Pradesh and West
Bengal, the two regions providing 35% of the total output.
About 10% of the production is exported.
Fish seed produced in India reached 36,566 mn fry in 2011,
rising by 4.5% yoy.
2,919 2,978 2,989
3,220 3,371
4,207
4,638
4,862
5,070
5,295
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Inland
Marine
2
1
3
.
0

2
3
0
.
5

2
3
9
.
9

2
5
7
.
8

2
8
2
.
1

2
0
3
.
9

2
2
7
.
1

2
7
6
.
6

3
3
1
.
4

3
9
0
.
7

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Marine fish Inland fish
73.0
76.2
86.1
129.0
166.0
4.0% 4.5%
13.0%
49.9%
28.7%
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
Export, INR bn Change yoy,%
- 40 -
Source:
Prices
Milk and Egg (yoy change, %)
CEIC; Emerging Markets Insight calculations
Meat (yoy change, %)
Fish (yoy change, %)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dec'13 Jan'14
Milk Egg
-20
0
20
40
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dec'13 Jan'14
Inland fish Marine fish
-5
15
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dec'13 Jan'14
Mufflon Beef and Buffalo Meat Poultry Chicken Pork

Emerging Markets Insight - India Transportation and Infrastructure Sector Report Segmentation

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Emerging Markets Insight - India Transportation and Infrastructure Sector Report Segmentation

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

- 1 -

Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited.

You might also like