!"#$% '()*+% ,-./ 0/.1( 2#+$(3/44 5.

+("

!"# %&'()*+', -.)*/0+1'2
!"#$%&'"(')* ,-.%$%'&'"#'/ "$01#2 3'"#$)/1" 0.- 456 %7)81-')*

!"#$%&'()* ,- ./"(0 !"#$
!
"
#
$
%
&

!
"
#
$
%
$

n
1
n
u

n
o
r
w
e
g
l
a
n

u
n
l
v
e
r
s
l
L
y

o
f


S
c
l
e
n
c
e

a
n
d

1
e
c
h
n
o
l
o
g
y

l
a
c
u
l
L
y

o
f

L
n
g
l
n
e
e
r
l
n
g

S
c
l
e
n
c
e

a
n
d

1
e
c
h
n
o
l
o
g
y

u
e
p
a
r
L
m
e
n
L

o
f

L
n
e
r
g
y

a
n
d

r
o
c
e
s
s

L
n
g
l
n
e
e
r
l
n
g




l
reface
1hls masLer Lhesls ls wrlLLen as a parL of Lhe flve year MasLer uegree rogram aL Lhe ueparLmenL of
Lnergy and rocess Lnglneerlng aL Lhe norweglan unlverslLy of Sclence and 1echnology (n1nu). llrsL
of all l wlsh Lo express my graLlLude Lo my supervlsor 8eldar krlsLoffersen. Cver my flnal year as a
sLudenL aL n1nu he has glven me good academlc guldance on reporL maLLers and greaL freedom ln
chooslng a Loplc of lnLeresL.

1he Lhesls ls wrlLLen ln cooperaLlon wlLh unv CL. Lars eLLer 8llkom, SegmenL ulrecLor for naLural
Cas, unv CL, has been my lndusLrlal supervlsor. l would llke Lo Lhank Mr. 8llkom for provldlng me
wlLh asslsLance on Lhe Loplc and valuable lnslghL from Lhe lndusLry. Pls supporL and encouragemenL
LhroughouL Lhe process has been hlghly appreclaLed. l also wlsh Lo Lhank Lhe 8oLLerdam Leam aL unv
CL MaarL[e lolberL and uennls van Meulen and Lhe speclallsLs on naLural gas aL unv CL Pvlk, Lrlk
SkramsLad and kaLrlne Lle SLrm, for Lhelr help on Lechnlcal maLLers. lndlvlduals who conLrlbuLed
wlLh lnslghL, relevanL maLerlal and sofLware guldance lnclude, Srldhar keLavarpu, 8aghunaLhan
8amanl and Ceok Poon Cng (unv CL).


nora Marle Lundevall ArneL


ll
Abstract
1he envlronmenLal and economlcal advanLages of uslng LnC as marlne fuel have been recognlzed by
Lhe lndusLry. ln response Lo lncreaslng demand, consLrucLlon of LnC bunkerlng lnfrasLrucLure ls under
rapld developmenL. Several porLs are preparlng Lo supply LnC, buL uncerLalnLles concernlng Lhe
bunkerlng process and operaLlonal safeLy sLlll exlsL.

8ecenLly, much work has been done Lo sLandardlze LnC bunkerlng soluLlons, lncludlng a launch of an
lSC guldellne and a 8ecommended racLlce (8) by unv. Cne of Lhe maln Loplcs of Lhese documenLs
and of lnLernaLlonal dlscusslon ls operaLlonal safeLy and Lhe esLabllshmenL of safeLy zones around Lhe
operaLlons. Plgh rlsk ls parLlcularly assoclaLed wlLh vulnerable ob[ecLs" (l.e. Lhlrd parLles, llke ferry
passengers) ln Lhe vlclnlLy of Lhe bunkerlng operaLlon. lerrles are currenLly Lhe maln LnC fuel
consumer and some ferrles have passengers on aL all Llmes. CurrenL regulaLlons do noL allow
passenger presence durlng bunkerlng. 1hls llmlLaLlon reduces Lhe funcLlonallLy and compeLlLlveness
of LnC, and has proved Lo be problemaLlc for ferry companles.

1he goal of Lhls Lhesls ls Lo esLabllsh probablllsLlc safeLy zones for a generlc shlp-Lo-shlp (S1S)
bunkerlng case. 1hreaLs Lo vulnerable ob[ecLs and Lhe assoclaLed llkellhood, ln Lhe evenL of an LnC
leak, ls ldenLlfled. 1he speclflc purpose ls Lo deLermlne wheLher accepLable safeLy levels for
passengers are presenL onboard a ferry performlng LnC bunkerlng operaLlons. 1hls sLudy wlll assess
Lhe rlsks lnvolved and calculaLe safeLy zones Lhrough an esLabllshed probablllsLlc approach, known as
CuanLlLaLlve 8lsk AssessmenL (C8A) meLhodology. 1hls meLhod lncludes frequency and consequence
calculaLlons of posslble Loss of ConLalnmenL (LCC) scenarlos. 1he accepLable rlsk level for Lhlrd parLles
per bunkerlng operaLlon ls assessed agalnsL Lhe wldely used crlLerla of 10
-6
.

8ased on Lhe conLour resulLs provlded by PAS18lsk (Lhe unv rlsk analysls sofLware Lool), lL ls clearly
demonsLraLed LhaL passenger safeLy can be malnLalned durlng bunkerlng operaLlons. 1hls sLudy
concludes LhaL Lhere ls no unreasonlng rlsk ln allowlng passenger presence durlng bunkerlng.
assenger safeLy lssues should consequenLly noL llmlL Lhe appllcaLlon of LnC as fuel for ferrles.



lll
Sammendrag
ue mll[messlge og konomlske fordelene ved bruke LnC som marlnL drlvsLoff er anerk[enL av
brans[en. Som svar p kende eLLersprsel er bygglng av lnfrasLrukLur for LnC-bunkrlng under
uLvlkllng. llere havner forbereder seg p levere LnC, men uslkkerheL rundL bunkrlngsprosessen og
drlfLsslkkerheLen ekslsLerer forLsaLL.

Mye arbeld har l den senesLe Lld bllLL uLfrL for sLandardlsere lsnlnger for LnC-bunkrlng, lnkluderL
en lanserlng av lSC reLnlngslln[er og en 8ecommended racLlce (8) av unv. LLL av de vlkLlgsLe
Lemaene l dlsse dokumenLene, og l lnLernas[onale dlskus[oner, er operas[onell slkkerheL og eLablerlng
av slkkerheLssoner rundL drlfLen. lerger er l dag den sLrsLe forbruker av LnC som drlvsLoff. noen
ferger har Lred[eparLer ombord Lll alle Llder, l form av passas[erer, og en hy rlslko anLas nr deL
g[elder dlsse srbare ob[ekLene (Lred[eparLene) l nrheLen av bunkrlngsoperas[onen. uagens
regelverk LlllaLer lkke LllsLedevrelse av passas[erer under bunkrlng . uenne begrensnlngen reduserer
funks[onallLeLen og konkurransedykLlgheLen Lll LnC, og har vlsL seg vre problemaLlsk for
fergeselskaper .

MleL med denne avhandllngen er eLablere probablllsLlske slkkerheLssoner for eL generlsk sklp-Lll-
sklp (S1S) bunkrlngsanlegg. 1rusler moL srbare ob[ekLer, og deres sannsynllgheL for lnnLreffe l
Lllfelle av en LnC-lekkas[e, er ldenLlflserL . ueL speslflkke formleL er avg[re om aksepLable
slkkerheLssoner for passas[erene er Lll sLede om bord p en ferge, under uLfrlngen av LnC
bunkrlngsoperas[oner. ueLLe sLudleL vll vurdere rlslkoen og beregne avsLander g[ennom en eLablerL
probablllsLlsk LllnrmlngsmeLode, k[enL som 'CuanLlLaLlve 8lsk AssessmenL' (C8A). uenne meLoden
lnkluderer frekvens og konsekvensanalyse av mullge 'Loss of ConLalnmenL' (LCC) (norsk: Lap av
sysLem lnLegrlLeL) scenarler. nlveL for aksepLabel rlslko for Lred[eparLer per bunkrlngs operas[on er
vurderL opp moL deL mesL brukLe krlLerleL p 10
-6
.

8aserL p konLurresulLaLene glLL av PAS18lsk (rlslkoanalyse-sofLware fra unv), er deL Lydellg
demonsLrerL aL passas[erenes slkkerheL kan oppreLLholdes under bunkrlngsoperas[oner. 8esulLaLene l
deLLe sLudleL konkluderer med aL deL lkke er noen urlmellg rlslko forbundeL med passas[erers nrvr
under bunkrlng. assas[erenes slkkerheL br derfor lkke vre en barrlere moL bruken av LnC som
drlvsLoff for ferger.



lv

Content
1 8ackground ........................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 MoLlvaLlon ...................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 underlylng PypoLhesls ................................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Maln Coal of 1hesls ........................................................................................................................ 3
1.4 Scope of 1hesls ............................................................................................................................... 3
2 MeLhodology ......................................................................................................................................... 4
2.1 SafeLy Zone ..................................................................................................................................... 4
2.1.1 8lsk AccepLance CrlLerla .......................................................................................................... 4
2.1.2 urpose of Lhe SafeLy Zone ..................................................................................................... 3
2.1.3 SlLe-Speclflc LlmlLaLlon ............................................................................................................ 3
2.1.4 Layers of uefense (LCu) .......................................................................................................... 3
2.2 MeLhod ........................................................................................................................................... 6
2.2.1 ueLermlnlsLlc Approach ........................................................................................................... 6
2.2.2 robablllsLlc Approach ............................................................................................................ 6
2.3 8lsk ManagemenL ........................................................................................................................... 7
2.3.1 LsLabllshlng Lhe ConLexL .......................................................................................................... 7
2.3.2 8lsk AssessmenL ...................................................................................................................... 7
2.3.3 8lsk 1reaLmenL ........................................................................................................................ 8
2.3.4 8lsk ldenLlflcaLlon .................................................................................................................... 8
2.3.3 8lsk Analysls ............................................................................................................................ 8
2.3.6 8lsk LvaluaLlon ........................................................................................................................ 9
2.4 SofLware 1ools .............................................................................................................................. 10
2.4.1 lrequency Analysls 1ools .......................................................................................................... 10
2.4.1.1 laulL 1ree ........................................................................................................................... 10
2.4.1.2 LLAk .................................................................................................................................... 10
2.4.2 Consequence Modellng 1ools ................................................................................................... 11
2.4.2.1 PAS1 6.7 ........................................................................................................................... 11
2.4.2.2 PAS18lsk 6.7 (SafeLl) ........................................................................................................ 11
3 LsLabllshlng Lhe conLexL ...................................................................................................................... 12
3.1 S1S 8unkerlng SysLem .................................................................................................................. 12
3.2 LnC 8unkerlng ConflguraLlons ..................................................................................................... 12
3.3 S1S 8unkerlng - 8ase Case ........................................................................................................... 13
3.3.1 ersonnel and lndlvldual lnvolvemenL .................................................................................. 13
3.3.2 SysLem 8egulaLlons ............................................................................................................... 13
3.3.3 SysLem LlmlLaLlons ................................................................................................................ 13
3.3.4 SysLem 8oundarles ................................................................................................................ 14
3.3.3 S1S 8unkerlng rocedure ...................................................................................................... 14
3.3.6 CperaLlonal uaLa ................................................................................................................... 13
3.3.7 1ransfer roperLles ................................................................................................................ 13
3.3.8 LqulpmenL ulmenslons ......................................................................................................... 16
3.4 LnC ............................................................................................................................................... 17
3.4.1 LnC CharacLerlsLlcs ............................................................................................................... 17
3.4.2 LnC SafeLy lssues .................................................................................................................. 17
3.4.3 CuLflow Scenarlos ................................................................................................................. 18
3.3 nauLlcal AcLlvlLy ........................................................................................................................... 20
3.3.1 SecurlLy Zone ......................................................................................................................... 20
3.6 WeaLher CondlLlons ..................................................................................................................... 21
3.6.1 asqull SLablllLy ..................................................................................................................... 21
3.6.2 Wlnd 8ose ............................................................................................................................. 21
3.7 lmplemenLed Safeguards ............................................................................................................. 23
3.7.1 AuLomaLlc lsolaLlon ............................................................................................................... 23


v
3.7.2 CperaLor lnLervenLlon ........................................................................................................... 24
3.7.3 lsolaLlon 1lmes ...................................................................................................................... 24
3.7.4 robablllLles of lallure ........................................................................................................... 23
4 8lsk AssessmenL .................................................................................................................................. 26
4.1 8lsk ldenLlflcaLlon ............................................................................................................................. 26
4.1.1 Pazard ldenLlflcaLlon (PAZlu) .................................................................................................... 26
4.1.2 8ow-1le Model .......................................................................................................................... 26
4.1.3 LnC Leak Causes ........................................................................................................................ 27
4.1.3.1 ldenLlflcaLlon of Loss of ConLalnmenL Scenarlos ................................................................ 28
4.1.4 LnC Leak Consequences ............................................................................................................ 29
4.2 8lsk Analysls ..................................................................................................................................... 30
4.2.1 lrequency Analysls .................................................................................................................... 30
4.2.2 1ransfer Pose lallure lrequencles ............................................................................................ 30
4.2.2.1 laulL 1ree ........................................................................................................................... 31
4.2.2.2 1ransfer Pose lallure lrequency Cvervlew ....................................................................... 34
4.2.2.3 vapor 8eLurn ...................................................................................................................... 34
4.2.3 rocess LqulpmenL lallure lrequency ...................................................................................... 33
4.2.3.1 rocess LqulpmenL lallure lrequencles Cvervlew ............................................................ 39
4.3.4 1anks lallure lrequencles ......................................................................................................... 40
4.2.2 Consequence Modellng ............................................................................................................. 41
4.2.2.1 lrequency LlmlL .................................................................................................................. 41
4.2.2.2 lnvenLory ............................................................................................................................ 31
4.2.2.3 ulscharge 8aLe .................................................................................................................... 31
4.2.2.4 AssumpLlons for PAS1 Modellng ...................................................................................... 32
4.2.2.3 8asLer lmage - S1S 8unker ConflguraLlon ........................................................................... 32
4.2.2.6 AssumpLlons for PAS18lsk Modellng ............................................................................... 32
4.2.2.7 PAS1 Worklng rocedure ................................................................................................. 33
4.2.2.8 PAS18lsk Worklng rocedure ........................................................................................... 33
4.3 8lsk LvaluaLlon ................................................................................................................................. 34
4.3.1 PAS1 8esulLs ............................................................................................................................ 34
4.3.1.1 vapor 8eLurn Llne ............................................................................................................... 34
4.3.1.2 LnC Llne ............................................................................................................................. 34
4.3.1.3 SecurlLy Zones .................................................................................................................... 36
4.3.1.4 LlL 8esulLs .......................................................................................................................... 37
4.3.2 PAS18lsk 8esulLs ..................................................................................................................... 38
4.3.2.1 1oLal ConLour 8esulLs for xLlL ........................................................................................... 38
4.3.2.2 lncreased nauLlcal AcLlvlLy ConLour 8esulLs ...................................................................... 39
4.3.2.3 LlL ConLour 8esulLs ............................................................................................................ 60
4.3.2.4 rocess SecLlon ConLour 8esulLs ........................................................................................ 60
4.3.3 1echnology AdvancemenLs ....................................................................................................... 62
4.3.3.1 Casnor Lxperlences ............................................................................................................ 62
3 Concluslon ........................................................................................................................................... 63
6 1reaLmenL of 8esldual 8lsk .................................................................................................................. 64
6.1 CperaLlng CondlLlons ................................................................................................................... 64
6.2 Pose ulmenslons .......................................................................................................................... 63
6.3 Lmergency 8elease Couplers ....................................................................................................... 63
6.4 lsolaLlon 1lmes ............................................................................................................................. 63
6.3 8elease arameLers ...................................................................................................................... 63
6.6 robablllLy of llre ......................................................................................................................... 66
Appendlx A - asqull SLablllLy lacLors ................................................................................................... 67
Appendlx 8 - PAZlu for S1S 8unkerlng .................................................................................................. 68
Appendlx C - 8lsk 8anklng MaLrlx .......................................................................................................... 71
Appendlx u - unv 8 accldenL scenarlos .............................................................................................. 72
Appendlx L - laulL 1ree Model .............................................................................................................. 74
Appendlx l - Pose lallure lrequency CalculaLlons ................................................................................ 76
Appendlx C - PAS1 8esulLs (Maxlmum ulsperslon ulsLances) ............................................................ 77


vl
Appendlx P - PAS18lsk 8esulL (SofLware vlew) ................................................................................... 83
8eference LlsL ......................................................................................................................................... 84




vll
L|st of I|gures
llgure 1: LCA zones (source unv) ............................................................................................................ 2
llgure 2: 8lsk conLours example (source unv 8) ................................................................................... 4
llgure 3: Layers of uefense (LCu) bow Lle model (source unv 8) ......................................................... 3
llgure 4: 8lsk ManagemenL ConLenL ........................................................................................................ 7
llgure 3: 8lsk assessmenL conLenL ........................................................................................................... 8
llgure 6: lllusLraLlon of Lwo-phase release of LnC (source unv 8) ....................................................... 9
llgure 7: S1S 8unkerlng ArrangemenL ................................................................................................... 13
llgure 8: LnC 8unkerlng 1ransfer SysLem .............................................................................................. 14
llgure 9: Lxploslon/llammablllLy Curve ................................................................................................. 18
llgure 10: Wlnd rose example, Sola, SLavanger. .................................................................................... 22
llgure 11: 8ule for bunkerlng arrangemenL (source unv) ..................................................................... 24
llgure 12: ldenLlfled fallure mechanlsms - LnC leakage causes ............................................................ 27
llgure 13: LnC bunkerlng Lransfer sysLem process secLlons .................................................................. 28
llgure 14: laulL Lree - hose leak from damage/rupLure ........................................................................ 31
llgure 13: laulL Lree - hose leak from dlsconnecLlon ............................................................................. 31
llgure 16: LvenL 1ree of Leak Scenarlos ................................................................................................. 38
llgure 17: LLAk lallure lrequencles for rocess LqulpmenL ................................................................. 39
llgure 18: 1oLal LLAk lallure lrequencles for rocess LqulpmenL ........................................................ 39
llgure 19: 1oLal xLlL resulLs .................................................................................................................. 38
llgure 20: lncreased nauLlcal acLlvlLy for xLlL conLour resulLs ............................................................. 39
llgure 21: LlL conLour resulLs ................................................................................................................ 60
llgure 22: 1ransfer Pose conLour resulLs ............................................................................................... 60
llgure 23: rocess equlpmenL conLour resulLs ...................................................................................... 61
llgure 24: 1ank conLour resulLs .............................................................................................................. 61



vlll
L|st of Abbrev|at|ons
nC - naLural Cas
LnC -Llquefled naLural Cas
PlC - Peavy luel Cll
MuC - Marlne ulesel Cll
MCC - Marlne Cas Cll
LCC - Loss of ConLalnmenL
C8A - CuanLlLaLlve 8lsk AssessmenL
lMC - lnLernaLlonal MarlLlme CrganlzaLlon
lSC - lnLernaLlonal CrganlzaLlon for SLandardlzaLlon
8 - 8ecommended racLlce
LCA - Lmlsslon ConLrol Area
S1S - Shlp-Lo-Shlp
11S - 1ruck-Lo-Shlp
1S - 1ermlnal (lpellne)-Lo-Shlp
LCu - Layer of uefense
Al8 - AccepLable lndlvldual 8lsk
LSl8 - LocaLlon-Speclflc lndlvldual 8lsk
PC8u - Pydrocarbon 8elease uaLabase
PSL - SafeLy LxecuLlve
LLL - Lower Lxploslon Level
uLL - upper Lxploslon Level
LlL - Lower llammablllLy Level
ulL - upper llammablllLy Level
x LlL - half Lower llammablllLy Level
L8C - Lmergency Culck 8elease ConnecLor/Couplers
LSu - Lmergency ShuLdown SysLems
L8S - Lmergency 8elease SysLems
ACuS - Advlsory CommlLLee on uangerous SubsLances
SlMCS - SlmulLaneous CperaLlons
LC - rogrammable Loglc ConLroller
LCv - Level ConLrol valve
&lu - lplng and lnsLrumenLaLlon dlagram

SorLed afLer order of appearance ln Lhe documenL.
1
1 8ackground
1.1 Mot|vat|on
1be lNC loJostty ls tbe fostest qtowloq seqmeot of tbe eoetqy loJostty otoooJ tbe wotlJ. Clobal oll
ls growlng abouL 0.9 per annum, global gas aL 2, whlle Llquefled naLural Cas (LnC) has been
growlng aL a comparaLlvely soarlng 4.3.
1


lloyJs keqlstet belleves lNC coolJ occooot fot op to 9X of totol booket foel JemooJ by 2025.
2

Small-scale dlsLrlbuLlon and bunkerlng of LnC has been boomlng as well.
3
LnC was creaLed as an
alLernaLlve Lo plpellnes for LransporLaLlon of naLural gas (nC) over long dlsLances ln a more
economlcal way. LnC ls reduced Lo approxlmaLely 1/600
Lh
ln volume Lhrough llquefacLlon.
1ransporLaLlon and handllng of LnC as cargo on boLh land and sea have been proven for many
decades. WlLh new emlsslon regulaLlons Lhe poLenLlal appllcaLlons for LnC ls expandlng. Among Lhese
appllcaLlons ls use of LnC as marlne fuel. LnC ls parLlcularly aLLracLlve for marlne vessels Lravellng seL
rouLes ln near coasL waLers such as LugboaLs, ferrles, and supporL vessels.

Peavy luel Cll (PlC), Marlne ulesel Cll (MuC) and Marlne Cas Cll (MCC) are all currenL convenLlonal
bunkerlng fuels. Shlp based fuel ls a large parL of oll consumpLlon and all Lhese fuels are hlgh on
emlsslon raLes. 8ased on a revlew of exlsLlng marlne englne Lechnology, reducLlons ln emlsslon from
uslng LnC as a fuel are: CC
2
and CPC 20-23, SC
x
and parLlculaLes approxlmaLely 100 and nC
x
83-
90. lor furLher lnformaLlon, see pro[ecL reporL secLlon 3.1.4: naLural Cas - 1he SoluLlon.

Around Lhe world new LnC pro[ecLs, appllcaLlons and Lechnologlcal advancemenLs are belng
announced regularly.
4
CurrenLly Lhere are 38 LnC fueled shlps ln operaLlon and 74 conflrmed
conLracLs for consLrucLlon. 1he reason for Lhls sLrong lncrease and lnLeresL ln LnC as a marlne fuel ls
based on Lwo maln facLors:
1. 1he Marlne LnvlronmenLal roLecLlon CommlLLee, parL of lnLernaLlonal MarlLlme
CrganlzaLlon (lMC), ls lnLroduclng emlsslon conLrols, consLralnlng Lhe exLenL of exhausL gas
emlsslon. 1hls ls forclng Lhe lndusLry Lo reLhlnk lLs fuellng opLlons and LnC ls provlng Lo be a
solld alLernaLlve.
3

2. 1he avallablllLy of nC has lncreased due Lo large offshore dlscoverles and unconvenLlonal gas
flndlngs ln Lhe uS (shale gas), creaLlng lower prlces on nC compared Lo convenLlonal fuels.
1hls creaLes a drlve ln Lhe lndusLry, as consumers are able Lo obLaln commerclal savlng
agalnsL alLernaLlve fuels.

ln response Lo lncreaslng demand, consLrucLlon of LnC bunkerlng lnfrasLrucLure ls under
developmenL.
6
uevelopmenL of a worldwlde LnC supply chaln based on shlp-Lo-shlp or shore-Lo-shlp
bunkerlng ls of paramounL lmporLance for LnC Lo become a real alLernaLlve Lo heavy fuel oll.
7








2
1.2 Under|y|ng nypothes|s
1he developmenL of LnC bunkerlng faclllLles has obLalned lncreased focus ln several counLrles
8
and
especlally Lhose wlLhln Lmlsslon ConLrol Area (LCA), see flgure 1 and pro[ecL reporL secLlon 3.2.1
Lmlsslon ConLrol. Several porLs are preparlng Lo supply LnC, buL uncerLalnLles concernlng Lhe
bunkerlng process and operaLlonal safeLy sLlll exlsL. 8unkerlng wlLh convenLlonal marlne fuels or large
scale bunkerlng offshore ls aL Lhls sLage noL coverlng Lhe relevanL rlsk for small scale bunkerlng ln a
porL.


I|gure 1: LCA zones (source DNV)
9


LnC ls sLored aL low LemperaLures and developmenL of a gas cloud ln Lhe evenL of an unexpecLed
release Lo Lhe surroundlngs, requlres lnslghL Lo Lhe rlsks. 1he rlsks are analyzed Lhrough evaluaLlng
frequencles and consequences of leak scenarlos. 8lsk resulLs wlll provlde lnslghL as Lo whaL safeLy
dlsLance should be Laken lnLo accounL, glven a speclflc bunker conflguraLlon. As such lL can be used as
an lnlLlal screenlng Lool for sulLablllLy of bunker locaLlons ln Lhe porL area.
10


8ecenLly, much work has been done Lo sLandardlze LnC bunkerlng soluLlons, lncludlng a launch of an
lnLernaLlonal CrganlzaLlon for SLandardlzaLlon (lSC) guldellne
11
and a 8ecommended racLlce (8) by
unv
12
. Cne of Lhe maln Loplcs of Lhese documenLs and of lnLernaLlonal dlscusslon ls operaLlonal
safeLy and Lhe esLabllshmenL of safeLy zones around operaLlons. A dlrecLlon for esLabllshlng safeLy
zones has been provlded by Lhe lSC and unv 8, buL Lhus far no lnLernaLlonal consensus has been
reached on Lhe meLhod and resulLs.
13
ConsequenLly, Lhere are dlfferences ln pracLlces and
precauLlons on exlsLlng operaLlons.

WhaL Lhe bunkerlng procedure currenLly conslders as hlgh rlsk wlLh respecL Lo Lhlrd parLles ln Lhe
vlclnlLy of Lhe operaLlon (vulnerable ob[ecLs), ls noL yeL advlsed by offlclal guldellnes. 1hls ls especlally
problemaLlc for ferrles (assumed Lo be Lhe LnC fuel's maln markeL), whlch have passengers on aL all
Llmes. 1he funcLlonallLy and sLrengLhs of LnC compared Lo oLher fuels wlll be conslderably reduced lf
vulnerable ob[ecLs Lo Lhe bunkerlng operaLlon (l.e. lndlvlduals who are noL operaLlonal personnel)
can'L be presenL ln Lhe area.

3
lf passenger presence durlng bunkerlng ls a real LhreaL lL ls lmporLanL Lo esLabllsh Lhls before Lhe
consLrucLlon of a large LnC bunkerlng lnfrasLrucLure ls commenced. lL would be equally unforLunaLe lf
Lhe expanslon of LnC as a fuel was held back due Lo percelved safeLy barrlers affecLlng lLs appllcaLlon.
lor successful lncorporaLlon of bunkerlng ln porLs lL ls essenLlal LhaL Lhe safeLy zones allow Lhe
bunkerlng operaLlon Lo remaln pracLlcal. 1he securlLy and safeLy zones Lherefore need Lo be
esLabllshed concluslvely for generlc appllcaLlons.


1.3 Ma|n Goa| of 1hes|s
1he goal of Lhls Lhesls ls Lo esLabllsh probablllsLlc safeLy zones for a generlc shlp-Lo-shlp (S1S)
bunkerlng case. 1hreaLs Lo vulnerable ob[ecLs and Lhelr llkellhood of Laklng place, ln Lhe evenL of an
LnC leak, wlll be ldenLlfled. vulnerable ob[ecLs ln our sLudy are Lo be undersLood as ferry passengers.
1he speclflc purpose ls Lo deLermlne wheLher accepLable safeLy zones (for vulnerable ob[ecLs) ls
presenL onboard a ferry performlng LnC bunkerlng operaLlons.

So far Lhere are few sLudles LhaL have sysLemaLlcally assessed LnC bunkerlng hazards. 1hls sLudy wlll
assess Lhe rlsks lnvolved and calculaLe dlsLances Lhrough an esLabllshed probablllsLlc approach,
known as CuanLlLaLlve 8lsk AssessmenL (C8A) meLhodology. 1he meLhod lncludes frequency and
consequence calculaLlons of posslble Loss of ConLalnmenL (LCC) scenarlos. 8oLh Lhe probablllsLlc
approach and Lhe sLages of a C8A analysls wlll be expressed ln chapLer 2: MeLhodology.

1.4 Scope of 1hes|s
1he Lhesls wlll cover meLhodology, esLabllsh Lhe conLexL, rlsk analysls and rlsk LreaLmenL. 1he conLexL
wlll ouLllne Lhe base case consldered ln Lhe sLudy, lncludlng deflnlLlon of essenLlal parameLers and
senslLlvlLles. 8lsk analysls wlll lnvolve Lhe C8A meLhod, lncludlng frequency and consequence
calculaLlons, and an evaluaLlon of wheLher regulaLory requlremenLs are meL. 8lsk LreaLmenL wlll
provlde Lhe concludlng remarks Lo Lhe sLudy. 1he reporL ls llmlLed by Lhe avallable descrlpLlon of
bunkerlng Lechnologles, slLe-speclflc lnformaLlon, and hlsLorlcal daLa on bunkerlng processes. use of
Lhe flndlngs would requlre conslderaLlon of sysLem and slLe-speclflc Lo Lhe appllcaLlon.

1hls Lhesls use maLerlal from Lhe pro[ecL reporL volootloo of tecbolcol cbolleoqes ooJ oeeJ fot
stooJotJlzotloo fot lNC booketloq whlch was wrlLLen as an lnLroducLlon Lo Lhe Loplc of LnC
bunkerlng. 1he pro[ecL reporL looked aL varlous sysLems and meLhodology for LnC bunkerlng
employed ln presenL operaLlons Lo deflne a Lyplcal or "besL pracLlce" approach Loday. ln Lhls masLer
Lhesls some of Lhe key elemenLs dlscussed ln Lhe pro[ecL reporL wlll be recaplLulaLed. 1o a cerLaln
exLenL lL wlll be advanLageous buL noL necessary for Lhe reader Lo have undersLandlng and knowledge
of Lhls reporL prlor Lo readlng Lhls sLudy. 1he reporL presenLs physlcal hardware, operaLlng
procedures and Lhe advanLages of uslng LnC as a bunker fuel.
4
2 Methodo|ogy
2.1 Safety 2one
1be mlolmom sofety zooe sboll be JefloeJ os tbe oteo otoooJ tbe booketloq focllltles wbete tbe
llkellbooJ of flommoble mlxtotes Joe to lNC ot NC teleoses ftom tbe booketloq exceeJs 10
-6
pet
booketloq opetotloo.
14


1he safeLy zone ls Lhe conLour of a cumulaLlve frequency of an lgnlLable gas cloud (uslng 100 LlL) >
10
-6
per bunkerlng. 1hls means LhaL a 10
-6
rlsk conLour per operaLlon for flash flres mark Lhe safeLy
zone dlsLance and necessary boundarles for an operaLlon. 1o produce rlsk conLour resulLs, a
probablllsLlc assessmenL of all release scenarlos from all processlng equlpmenL ln Lhe bunkerlng
lnsLallaLlon (hose, plplng, Lanks, connecLors, flanges, valves, eLc.) ls requlred.
2.1.1 k|sk Acceptance Cr|ter|a
1o be able Lo deflne zones, rlsk accepLance crlLerla for lndlvlduals need Lo be recognlzed. 1he
accepLance crlLerla used ln Lhls sLudy ls ln allgnmenL wlLh regulaLory requlremenLs. 1he unv 8 and
lSC guldellnes express Lhe followlng rlsk accepLance crlLerla for LnC bunkerlng operaLlons:

Ind|v|dua| r|sk App||es to Acceptance cr|ter|a
1
st
party Crew and personnel Al8 < 10
-3
2
nd
party orL personnel Al8 < 3x10
-6
3
rd
party Ceneral publlc wlLhouL lnvolvemenL ln Lhe
acLlvlLy (passengers)
Al8 < 10
-6

AccepLable lndlvldual 8lsk (Al8) ls Lhe mosL common rlsk crlLerla used ln Lhe lndusLry ln rlsk
assessmenL for relaLlng rlsk Lo people. ln Lhls assessmenL we are concerned wlLh passenger presence
onboard ferrles durlng S1S bunkerlng. lerry passengers are classlfled as Lhlrd parLy lndlvldual rlsk wlLh
an accepLance crlLerlon of 10
-6
per bunkerlng operaLlon.

1he LocaLlon-Speclflc lndlvldual 8lsk (LSl8) ls usually presenLed ln Lerms of rlsk conLours. An example
of whaL rlsk conLours are can be seen ln flgure 1. Lvery llne ln Lhls plcLure represenLs a rlsk level: l.e.:
10
-3
could be Lhe lnner mosL clrcle and Lhen lL decreases from Lhere on ouL. ln Lhls sLudy, Lhe rlsk
analysls wlll Lhrough Lhe use of sofLware Lools (explalned ln secLlon 2.4) produce resulLs ln Lhe form of
conLours, relevanL and proporLlonal Lo a S1S bunkerlng arrangemenL layouL.

I|gure 2: k|sk contours examp|e (source DNV k)

3
2.1.2 urpose of the Safety 2one
1he purpose of Lhe safeLy zone ls Lo reduce Lhe llkellhood of lgnlLlng leaked nC. 1he ldea ls LhaL Lhe
scenarlo of an unconLrolled LnC release should aL all Llmes be avolded. Measures Lo reduce
unconLrolled releases are parL of Lhe flrsL layer of defense. lf, however, a leak was Lo Lake place,
measures need Lo be lmplemenLed Lo reduce Lhe llkellhood of lgnlLlng Lhe dlsperslng cloud. 1he
prevenLlon of lgnlLlon ls parL of Lhe second layer of defense. 1he safeLy zone reduces Lhe probablllLy
of lgnlLlon by excludlng unconLrolled and conLrolled lgnlLlon sources from Lhe zone. 1hls ls achleved
by noL allowlng any non-essenLlal personnel or acLlvlLles wlLhln Lhe deflned safeLy zone. 1hls wlll also
reduce Lhe number of people who could be exposed Lo a hazardous evenL.
13

2.1.3 S|te-Spec|f|c L|m|tat|on
Any zone lmplemenLaLlon should be a resulL of a slLe-speclflc rlsk assessmenL. 8esulLs obLalned ln Lhls
generlc sLudy oughL Lo noL be lmplemenLed dlrecLly Lo a real llfe bunkerlng sysLem. 1he alm here ls Lo
creaLe a generlc resulL, whlch can provlde lnslghL as Lo how hazardous a bunkerlng case ls, and
posslbly as a Lool Lo compleLe sysLem speclflc calculaLlons.
2.1.4 Layers of Defense (LCD)
1o ensure safe operaLlon of LnC bunkerlng, Lhe lSC guldellnes and Lhe unv 8 promoLes layers of
defense (LCu). LCu ls a concepL for how Lo undersLand Lhe causes and consequences of a LnC or nC
release and lnLroduces Lhree levels of how Lhelr effecLs can be reduced.
1
sL
LCu: requlremenLs Lo prevenL an accldenLal release
2
nd
LCu: requlremenLs Lo conLaln and conLrol a hazardous slLuaLlon
3
rd
LCu: procedures Lo mlnlmlze consequences and harmful effecLs
16

1he below flgure, flgure Lwo, ls known as a bow-Lle model and lllusLraLes Lhe concepL of Lhree layers
of defense. llrsL LCu ls prevenLlve and prlor Lo any acLual release, Lhe second LCu ls lmmedlaLely
afLer Lhe release and Lhls ls where Lhe safeLy zone comes ln as a prevenLlve Lool. llnally Lhe Lhlrd LCu
are measures Laken when Lhe release has Laken place.

As parL of Lhls sLudy, a bow-Lle analysls wlll be underLaken ln Lhe lnlLlal sLages, see secLlon 4.1: 8lsk
ldenLlflcaLlon. ln Lhls secLlon, Lhe causes leadlng Lo a LnC or nC release and Lhe consequences of Lhls
release wlll be ouLllned.


I|gure 3: Layers of Defense (LCD) bow t|e mode| (source DNV k)
6
2.2 Method
1he lSC guldellnes propose Lwo approaches Lo calculaLe a safeLy zone for any process: deLermlnlsLlc
or probablllsLlc. 1hls secLlon wlll glve a shorL lnLroducLlon Lo Lhe Lwo approaches and argumenL for
Lhe cholce made.
2.2.1 Determ|n|st|c Approach
A deLermlnlsLlc approach ls only appllcable for sLandard bunkerlng scenarlos where all funcLlonal
requlremenLs ln Lhe lSC guldellnes are meL. 1he safeLy zone ls ln Lhls case deLermlned by a
consequence-based meLhodology. 1he calculaLlons are based on a maxlmum credlble dlsperslon
scenarlo, and Lhe resulLs lnclude maxlmum dlsLances from Lhe bunkerlng acLlvlLy where Lhe cloud of
nC could be flammable. 1hls approach ls consldered very slmple and conservaLlve, and wlll lead Lo
large safeLy zones, as no safeguards are lncluded ln Lhe analysls.
17


2.2.2 robab|||st|c Approach
1he probablllsLlc meLhod follows a rlsk-based approach, whlch requlres a more complex analysls of
Lhe operaLlon. lL conslders Lhe maxlmum dlsLance Lo flammable concenLraLlon of each posslble
release scenarlo as well as lLs llkellhood (l.e. boLh quallLaLlve and quanLlLaLlve aspecLs of Lhe
procedure). 1he safeLy zone ls deflned by Lhe dlsLance aL whlch Lhe frequency of Lhe occurrence of a
flammable cloud ls equal Lo one occurrence every mllllon operaLlons (l.e. 10
-6
).

1he probablllsLlc approach credlL safeguards and conslder Lhe llkellhood of Lhe varlous scenarlos.
ConsequenLly, Lhls meLhod wlll lead Lo smaller safeLy zones. lL ls Lherefore Lyplcally used for locaLlons
wlLh space consLralnLs and where large safeLy zones cannoL be lmplemenLed. lf passengers are
onboard Lhe ferrles durlng bunkerlng operaLlons, Lhe safeLy zone needs Lo be esLabllshed, buL lL ls
also clear LhaL an unreasonably large zone can'L be lmplemenLed. 1he probablllsLlc approach offers a
more raLlonal basls for maklng lnformed declslons Lhan an approach based on slngle, large evenL
scenarlos, as ln Lhe deLermlnlsLlc. AlLhough more Lhorough and Llme consumlng, Lhe probablllsLlc
meLhod ls chosen.
18


!"!"!"# %&' ()*+,-
1he rlsk dlsLance ls modeled and quanLlfled uslng CuanLlLaLlve 8lsk AssessmenL (C8A). 1he C8A
meLhod ls a recognlzed approach ln calculaLlng rlsk dlsLances Lo vulnerable ob[ecLs ln Lhe evenL of a
hazardous subsLance leakage. 1he assessmenL conslders consequence esLlmaLes and Lhe probablllLles
for quanLlLy of release, process secLlon of release (l.e. hose, Lank or process equlpmenL), operaLlonal
procedures and probablllLy of lgnlLlon as a funcLlon of Llme afLer Lhe release. 1hrough calculaLlng Lhe
poLenLlal effecL of varlous scenarlos for a speclflc sysLem and Lhelr probablllLy of occurrence, lL ls able
Lo provlde lnslghL on Lhe rlsk of human llfe.
19


1he worklng process of C8A covers:
Pazard ldenLlflcaLlon - whaL can go wrong?
Consequence modellng - how bad?
lrequency esLlmaLlon - how ofLen?
8lsk assessmenL - so whaL?
8lsk managemenL - whaL can be done abouL lL?
20




7
2.3 k|sk Management
1he overall Lheme of Lhe reporL ls rlsk managemenL, ln Lerms of evaluaLlng Lhe rlsks lnvolved ln S1S
bunkerlng of LnC. 8lsk managemenL wlll lnvolve Lhree maln componenLs as can be seen from flgure
3. 1he rlsk managemenL process ls ln accordance wlLh Lhe lSC 31000.

8lsk managemenL lnvolves lnLroduclng rlsk reducLlon measures Lo make a process accepLable, lf
necessary. lf rlsk crlLerla are noL meL ln Lhe flrsL C8A, addlLlonal mlLlgaLlng measures wlll be
lnLroduced, and Lhe C8A wlll be repeaLed. ueLalled lnvesLlgaLlon of rlsk mlLlgaLlng measures and Lhelr
lmpacL on rlsk calculaLlons wlll noL be lncluded ln Lhls sLudy.



I|gure 4: k|sk Management Content

2.3.1 Lstab||sh|ng the Context
1he ob[ecLlve of Lhls chapLer ls Lo esLabllsh Lhe conLexL of Lhls sLudy. 1hls lnvolves esLabllshlng Lhe
scope, crlLerla and sysLem boundarles for Lhe rlsk managemenL process. 1he conLexL overvlew wlll
lnclude bunkerlng arrangemenL, process equlpmenL speclflc lnformaLlon, and LnC characLerlsLlcs and
hazards.
21

2.3.2 k|sk Assessment
klsk ossessmeot ls tbe ovetoll ptocess of tlsk lJeotlflcotloo, tlsk ooolysls ooJ tlsk evolootloo. klsk
ossessmeot ptovlJes oo ooJetstooJloq of tlsks, tbelt cooses, coosepoeoces ooJ tbelt ptobobllltles.
22


1he approach ldenLlfles hazards assoclaLed wlLh a glven pro[ecL or operaLlon. lncludlng ldenLlflcaLlon
of how Lhe hazards maLerlallze lnLo an accldenL and an accounL of prevenLlve barrlers ln place. 8lsk
assessmenL ls when Lhe Lechnlcal lnformaLlon from rlsk analysls ls comblned wlLh rlsk crlLerla Lo
evaluaLe wheLher Lhe rlsks are lnLolerable or negllglble, or Lo make oLher value [udgmenLs abouL Lhelr
slgnlflcance.
23
ln oLher words, Lhe Lechnlcal and facLual ls comblned wlLh Lhe non-Lechnlcal, and Lhe
elemenL of declslon-maklng and human error ls lnLroduced. ueLalls of Lhe approach can be seen from
flgure 4.

8lsk ManagemenL
LsLabllshlng Lhe
conLexL
SysLem descrlpuon LnC CharacLerlsucs
8lsk AssessmenL 8lsk 1reaLmenL
8
2.3.3 k|sk 1reatment
8lsk LreaLmenL conslders Lhe calculaLed and evaluaLed rlsk, and proposes furLher hazard reduclng
measures lf needed. ln Lhls sLudy, Lhls chapLer wlll lnclude a dlscusslon on oLher senslLlvlLles LhaL
could have been consldered, and LhaL should be consldered ln real llfe scenarlos (l.e. furLher sLudles).




I|gure S: k|sk assessment content
2.3.4 k|sk Ident|f|cat|on
8lsk ldenLlflcaLlon wlll lnvolve a PAZlu (Pazard ldenLlflcaLlon) process, whlch ls a sLrucLured and
speclflc meLhod for ldenLlfylng hazards and evaluaLlng Lhem for relevance. lor every ma[or hazard,
such as an LnC leak, Lhe source of Lhe evenL (cause), Lhe effecLs of Lhe evenL (consequence) and Lhe
lmplemenLed safeguards, wlll be ldenLlfled.
24


&./0 ./ *+) /)1)2.*3 ,4 *+) )1)5*6 789*.:9.)- ;.*+ *+) 9.0)9.+,,- ,4 *+) )1)5*"
2.3.S k|sk Ana|ys|s
ln Lhls secLlon lL ls lmporLanL LhaL all assumpLlons, ldenLlfled uncerLalnLles, modellng cholces and
seLLlngs of calculaLlon parameLers are documenLed.

!"<"="# >2)?8)5@3 '5A93/./
AfLer Lhe hazards of a sysLem or process have been ldenLlfled, Lhe nexL sLep ln performlng Lhe C8A ls
Lo esLlmaLe Lhe frequency aL whlch Lhe hazardous evenLs may occur. 1he selecLed Lechnlque and
Lools used depend on Lhe avallablllLy of hlsLorlc daLa and sLaLlsLlcs. Avallable Lools and Lechnlques are:
Analysls of hlsLorlcal daLa
laulL Lree analysls or evenL Lree analysls
SlmulaLlons

8lsk AssessmenL
8lsk
ldenucauon
Pazards Scenarlos
8lsk Analysls
lrequency
Analysls (LLAk)
Consequence
Modelllng
(hasL)
8lsk Lvaluauon
AssesmenL of
accepLablllLy
9
!"<"="! B,5/)?8)5@) (,-)9.5C
Consequence modellng evaluaLes Lhe resulLlng effecLs lf Lhe accldenLs occur, and Lhelr lmpacL on
personnel and Lhe sysLem. 1he consequence of any flre Laklng place ls predomlnanLly dependenL on
Lhe Lype of LCC scenarlo and Lhe process condlLlons (l.e. pressure, LemperaLure) durlng Lhe release.
23


1be coosepoeoce ossessmeot sboll be cottleJ oot osloq tecoqolzeJ coosepoeoce moJelloq tools tbot
ote copoble of Jetetmloloq tbe tesoltloq effects ooJ tbelt lmpoct oo petsoooel, epolpmeot ooJ
sttoctotes, ot tbe eovltoomeot. 1bls sboll be vollJoteJ by expetlmeotol test Joto opptoptlote fot tbe
slze ooJ cooJltloos of tbe bozotJ to be evolooteJ.
26


llgure 3 shows an example, whlch lllusLraLe a Lwo-phase release of LnC:
1he accldenLal release develops a [eL flow due Lo pressure
1he llquld [eL breaks lnLo aerosol
Some dropleLs wlll parLly or fully evaporaLe, whlle Lhe remalnlng llquld ralns ouL Lo form a
pool of LnC
27



I|gure 6: I||ustrat|on of two-phase re|ease of LNG (source DNV k)
1he consequence modellng lnvolves Lhe followlng consecuLlve sLeps:
1. ulscharge calculaLlons - carrled ouL Lo seL release characLerlsLlcs for Lhe LnC (lncludlng
depressurlzaLlon Lo amblenL). Scenarlos LhaL wlll be modeled are deflned by Lhe LCC
scenarlos llsL. Leak scenarlos Lo be consldered are boLh non-pressurlzed and pressurlzed
releases, as deflned by Lhe bunker sysLem.
2. ulsperslon calculaLlons - carrled ouL Lo deLermlne Lhe concenLraLlons of gas when Lhe cloud
Lravels ln Lhe downwlnd dlrecLlon. 1he chosen Lool needs Lo be able Lo accounL for effecLs of
[eL, heavy-gas and passlve dlsperslon. ln Lhe case of a Lwo-phase release, ralnouL may occur
and pool formaLlon or spreadlng and re-evaporaLlon shall be modeled accordlngly.
3. llre calculaLlons - carrled ouL Lo produce Lhe flnal rlsk level resulLs. 1he calculaLlon Lakes
lgnlLlon probablllLy lnLo accounL, comblned wlLh dlscharge and dlsperslon effecLs.
4. Lxploslon calculaLlons - ls parL of Lhe requlred calculaLlons lf Lhe sysLem ls parLlally or fully
wlLhln enclosed spaces.
2.3.6 k|sk Lva|uat|on
1he resulLs are presenLed and Lhe rlsk of Lhe evenLs Lo lndlvlduals ls quanLlfled and evaluaLed agalnsL
Lhe rlsk accepLance crlLerla.
10
2.4 Software 1oo|s
1he rlsk analysls wlll lnvolve Lhe use of sofLware Lools. 1hls secLlon provldes a shorL descrlpLlon of
whlch funcLlons Lhey perform ln Lhe calculaLlons. 1he use and speclflc examples wlll be provlded ln
chapLer 4: 8lsk AssessmenL as parL of Lhe rlsk analysls ln Lhls sLudy.
2.4.1 Irequency Ana|ys|s 1oo|s
2.4.1.1 Iau|t 1ree
laulL Lree excel ad-ln ls a unv sofLware Lool, creaLed Lo easlly calculaLe how lnlLlal evenLs comblne
wlLh and/or gaLes and creaLe overall evenL frequencles for a speclflc process secLlon of Lhe Lransfer
sysLem. lor creaLlng Lhe model, evenLs (L) and gaLes (C) needs Lo be named and comblned
accordlngly. lnlLlal frequencles Lo Lhe maln evenLs are added by Lhe evenLs. 1he frequencles of Lhe
gaLes, whlch also can be known as grouped or maln evenLs, wlll be calculaLed by Lhe faulL Lree
Lool/sofLware.
2.4.1.2 LLAk
1he unv sofLware LLAk ls used Lo esLlmaLe Lhe leak frequencles. 1he sofLware uses sLaLlsLlcal daLa
from Lhe Pydrocarbon 8elease uaLabase (PC8u), complled by Lhe uk PealLh and SafeLy LxecuLlve
(PSL). 1he daLabase ls exLenslve and covers leak reglsLraLlons over a 20-year perlod, buL ls llmlLed Lo
Lhe 8rlLlsh Cll and Cas secLor and offshore operaLlons. 1hls means LhaL lL wlll noL provlde fallure raLes
for LnC operaLlons and cryogenlc equlpmenL speclflcally. Any daLa concernlng cryogenlc or LnC-
speclflc appllcaLlons ls currenLly llmlLed.
28


ltepoeocy estlmotes ote tecoqolzeJ os ooe of tbe lotqest sootces of oocettoloty lo OkA stoJles.
1be molo tlsk Jtlvets oo oo lNC slte ote eveots tbot ote oollkely to be wltblo tbe Jltect expetleoce of
loJlvlJool ploots ooJ tetmlools. stobllsbloq tbe ftepoeocles of socb eveots ls Jlfflcolt, pteclsely
becoose of tbelt totlty. lt tepoltes systemotlc Joto collectloo, fot leoks ooJ exposeJ epolpmeot
popolotloo, ovet mooy ploots fot mooy yeots. 5ocb Joto collectloo ls tlme-coosomloq ooJ beoce
ooosool.
29
1he relevance of PC8u offshore daLa ls compensaLed by Lhe welghL of sLaLlsLlcal daLa
supporLlng Lhe derlved fallure raLes for speclflc equlpmenL lLems, compared Lo Lhe llmlLed daLa on
LnC and cryogenlc faclllLles. 1he generlc daLa derlved from Lhe PC8u has Lherefore been applled
dlrecLly wlLhouL any modlflcaLlon.


11
2.4.2 Consequence Mode||ng 1oo|s
1he consequence modellng Lools used ln Lhls sLudy ls unv's sofLware Lools called PAS1 and
PAS18lsk. 1ogeLher Lhey glve a comprehenslve overvlew of posslble ouLcomes and lmpacL poLenLlal
assoclaLed wlLh Lhe release of a hazardous maLerlal. 8oLh programs can accounL for a whole range of
facLors (senslLlvlLles) LhaL affecL Lhe developmenL of a loss of conLalnmenL scenarlo for Lhe process
lndusLry. 1he ouLcomes can undergo a full analysls ln a slngle lnLegraLed calculaLlon run by uLlllzlng
llnked models.
30


PAS1 undergoes conLlnuous lmprovemenLs and one of Lhe recenL developmenLs ln Lhe 6.7 verslon,
lncludes valldaLlon for release of LnC/nC (meLhane). unLll recenLly Lhls had noL been posslble, buL lL
has been drlven by a need by Lhe lndusLry. 1hls ls why sLudles such as Lhls masLer Lhesls are emerglng
rapldly and are of hlgh lmporLance and lnLeresL aL Lhe momenL.
31


2.4.2.1 nAS1 6.7
PAS1 provldes dlscharge calculaLlons, whlch produce release raLes and maxlmum dlsLances. PAS1
ls a Lool for Lhe deLermlnlsLlc approach.

2.4.2.2 nAS1k|sk 6.7 (Safet|)
PAS18lsk, also known as SafeLl, ls a C8A sofLware Lool used Lo compleLe Lhe consequence
calculaLlons for a probablllsLlc approach. PAS18lsk wlll Lake PAS1 ouLpuL and add furLher
senslLlvlLles such as weaLher condlLlons and Lhe bunkerlng layouL arrangemenL. PAS18lsk wlll
lncorporaLe vlsuallzaLlon Lools, whlch allow Lhe lmpacL ranges Lo be lmposed on locaLlon maps (l.e.
plcLures of Lhe bunkerlng layouL), provldlng a clear undersLandlng of Lhe resulLs. uslng exLenslve and
valldaLed models one can qulckly and easlly slmulaLe accldenL scenarlos, lncludlng Lhe exLenL of
dlscharge, dlsperslon, flammable, exploslve and Loxlc effecLs, for a speclflc subsLance.
32









12
3 Lstab||sh|ng the context
Cverall Lhls secLlon provldes a deLalled overvlew of Lhe sLudy and presenL assumpLlons made wlLh
respecL Lo Lhe chosen base case.

3.1 S1S 8unker|ng System
1be Jefloltloo of lNC booketloq ls tbe smoll-scole ttoosfet of lNC to vessels tepoltloq lNC os o foel
fot ose wltblo qos ot Jool foeleJ eoqloes. lNC booketloq tokes ploce wltblo potts ot otbet sbelteteJ
locotloos.
JJ
8unkerlng should noL be consldered ln Lhe same conLexL as large scale, commerclal
Lransfer of cargo beLween ocean-golng LnC carrlers, wlLh volume Lransfers Lyplcally above
100,000m
3
.
34


1o correcLly assess and quanLlfy Lhe rlsks of LnC bunkerlng lL ls essenLlal Lo deflne Lhe sysLem LhaL wlll
be analyzed. 1hls chapLer of Lhe reporL wlll presenL bunkerlng conflguraLlons, descrlbe Lhe selecLed
bunkerlng conflguraLlon for Lhls sLudy, and esLabllsh Lhe base case lncludlng relevanL process
parameLers and assumpLlons made.

3.2 LNG 8unker|ng Conf|gurat|ons
1he lndusLry dlfferenLlaLes beLween Lhree Lypes of bunkerlng conflguraLlons.
1ruck-Lo-Shlp (11S): mlcro bunkerlng, dlscharglng unlL ls a LnC road Lanker wlLh slze of
approxlmaLely 30-100m
3
.
Shlp-Lo-Shlp Lransfer (S1S): dlscharglng unlL ls a bunker vessel or barge wlLh slze 200-
10,000m
3
.
1ermlnal (lpellne)-Lo-Shlp (1S): saLelllLe Lermlnal bunkerlng serves as Lhe dlscharglng unlL.
Supply slzes are approxlmaLely 100-10,000m
3
.
1S and 11S are Lhe mosL esLabllshed bunkerlng conflguraLlons as of Loday, and Lhey are boLh
classlfled as onshore supply. S1S wlll also Lake place whlle Lhe recelvlng unlL ls aL dock or ln a porL
envlronmenL, buL boLh unlLs lnvolved ln Lhe Lransfer are seaborne and Lhe Lransfer ls Lherefore
classlfled as offshore. use of S1S makes Lhe bunkerlng locaLlon more flexlble Lhan 1S, and lL can
supply hlgher volumes Lhan 11S. uevelopmenLs wlLhln Lhls conflguraLlon are Lhe mosL feaslble and
are Lherefore essenLlal ln maklng LnC compeLlLlve agalnsL oLher marlne fuels, especlally for larger
shlps.
33
Lach conflguraLlon has speclflc rlsks dependlng on arrangemenL and equlpmenL used. 1he
mosL lmporLanL equlpmenL dlfference ls wheLher Lhe sysLem uses hose or loadlng arm for Lhe
Lransfer.

13
3.3 S1S 8unker|ng - 8ase Case
S1S wlLh flexlble cryogenlc Lransfer hose ls Lhe chosen conflguraLlon for Lhls sLudy. 1he base case
deflned wlll make generlc assumpLlons for S1S bunkerlng and wlll noL represenL a speclflc real llfe
case. A slmpllfled bunkerlng arrangemenL has been made and can be seen ln flgure 6. 1he lllusLraLlon,
alLhough slmpllfled, ls proporLlonally drawn Lo scale and wlll be used for modellng purposes laLer ln
Lhe sLudy.


I|gure 7: S1S 8unker|ng Arrangement
1he LnC fueled vessel ls a passenger ferry and wlll be referred Lo, as Lhe recelvlng unlL whlle Lhe
bunker vessel/barge ls Lhe dlscharglng unlL. 1he recelvlng vessel ls moored Lo shore and Lhe
dlscharglng ls moored Lo Lhe recelvlng. 1he red boxes mark Lhe process secLlons, Lhe small box ls Lhe
bunker process secLlon lncludlng Lransfer hose, whlle Lhe larger process secLlons lnclude all process
equlpmenL for bunkerlng. 1he green boxes mark Lhe 23m safeLy zone around Lhe Lwo process
secLlons respecLlvely. 1he 23m safeLy zone ls Lhe currenL lndusLry sLandard.
3.3.1 ersonne| and Ind|v|dua| Invo|vement
1he dlscharglng slde wlll only lnclude operaLors lnvolved ln Lhe LnC Lransfer speclflcally. lor Lhe
recelvlng slde Lhe ferry wlll lnclude, operaLors, ferry crew and ferry passengers. 1he passengers are
Lhe maln concern, maklng Lhe recelvlng shlp Lhe focus ln Lhls rlsk assessmenL.
3.3.2 System kegu|at|ons
1he bunker barge ls deslgned and bullL accordlng Lo Lhe lCC Code and Lhe LnC fueled vessel ls
deslgned and bullL accordlng Lo Lhe MSC283(86) (see pro[ecL reporL chapLer 3: 8egulaLlons). rocess
equlpmenL used ln Lhe Lransfer process ls accordlng Lo naLlonal regulaLlons, regulaLlons equlvalenL Lo
Ln 1474 or nlA 39 (see pro[ecL reporL secLlon 4.4: LqulpmenL).
3.3.3 System L|m|tat|ons
Conslderable efforLs have been made Lo make reasonable assumpLlons. ln an aLLempL Lo noL
underesLlmaLe any of Lhe rlsks relaLed Lo LnC bunkerlng, Lhe 'conservaLlve besL-esLlmaLe' has been
chosen for areas where case cholces were requlred. LfforLs have been made Lo make Lhe assessmenL
14
as deLalled and reallsLlc as posslble. noneLheless, Lhe reporL does noL cover a speclflc real llfe
bunkerlng case. ConsequenLly, parameLers have been chosen broadly from represenLaLlve daLa
almlng aL descrlblng a Lyplcal exlsLlng S1S bunkerlng arrangemenL. AddlLlonally, as Lechnology
advances, fuLure real llfe bunkerlng conflguraLlons mlghL have dlfferenL characLerlsLlcs. Any resulLs
presenLed should Lherefore be lnLerpreLed wlLh care.
3.3.4 System 8oundar|es
ln Lhls sLudy Lhe enLlre Lransfer sysLem wlll be lncluded ln Lhe calculaLlon of Lhe safeLy dlsLances. 1hls
lncludes process equlpmenL (pump, plplng, valves, flanges eLc.) and Lanks for boLh unlLs and Lhe hose.
1he sysLem ls addlLlonally equlpped wlLh a vapor reLurn llne, whlch runs ln parallel wlLh Lhe maln LnC
llne. 1he fallure scenarlos accounLed for are llnked Lo LnC leakage. All poLenLlal release scenarlos
wlLhln Lhese sysLem boundarles wlll be accounLed for.

llgure 7, represenL a slmpllfled LnC bunkerlng sysLem. AlLhough slmpllfled, lL marks Lhe Lransfer
sysLem boundarles for Lhls sLudy, deflnes Lhe process secLlons LhaL wlll be consldered, and provldes a
bunker layouL overvlew. 1hls model ls, conversely Lo Lhe prevlous, noL drawn Lo scale. A real llfe
Lransfer sysLem ls much more complex as lL lncludes addlLlonal process equlpmenL LhaL need Lo be
consldered for frequency calculaLlons. ln secLlon 4.2.3: rocess LqulpmenL lallure lrequency, a full
process equlpmenL counL ls presenLed for Lhe Lwo unlLs.


I|gure 8: LNG 8unker|ng 1ransfer System
3.3.S S1S 8unker|ng rocedure
A full sLep-by-sLep descrlpLlon of Lhe bunkerlng procedure ls provlded ln Lhe pro[ecL reporL secLlon 4.3:
LnC 8unkerlng rocedure. 1he maln sLeps ln a S1S bunkerlng procedure are:
1. Arrlval and moorlng
2. Cool down sysLem
3. Croundlng and connecLlon of bunker hose
4. lnerLlng and purglng of fllllng llnes
3. 1ransfer (Lop and boLLom)
6. SLrlpplng, lnerLlng and purglng of fllllng llnes
7. ulsconnecLlon of bunker hose
8. unmoorlng and deparLure
1he maln sLep of lnLeresL ls sLep 3, Lhe Lransfer sequence. 1hls ls Lhe parL of Lhe procedure where all
consldered process secLlons are fllled wlLh LnC/nC.
13
3.3.6 Cperat|ona| Data
8unkerlng for vessels of Lhls slze ls esLlmaLed Lo Lake abouL one hour, however, bunkerlng Llme ofLen
lncrease as Lop fllllng has Lo be used more Lhan whaL accounLed for, so a conservaLlve assumpLlons ls
Lo conslder Lwo hours for bunkerlng Llme per operaLlon. All frequencles and scenarlos wlll be
consldered on a per operaLlon basls.

3.3.7 1ransfer ropert|es
1he acLual bunkerlng arrangemenL ls noL avallable, and Lhe exacL process characLerlsLlcs vary from
case Lo case. 1he Lransfer properLles selecLed are Lherefore conservaLlve, based on regulaLory
requlremenLs or values obLalned from a represenLaLlve case.

llow veloclLy wlll be seL Lo 10m/s as Lhls ls Lhe maxlmum veloclLy for Lhe hoses Lyplcally used by Lhe
lndusLry.
36
8unker barges/vessels of Lhls slze have fllllng capaclLles from 180-3000m
3
/hour.
37
1he flow
raLes wlll vary from one bunkerlng acLlvlLy Lo anoLher, dependlng on fllllng meLhod (Lop or boLLom)
and bunker parameLers (l.e. LemperaLure and pressure of Lhe llquld). 1he flow raLe wlll noL be
evaluaLed for senslLlvlLles and wlll Lherefore be seL as a consLanL parameLer, assumed Lo be 300m
3
/h
for Lhls sLudy.

LNG propert|es
MeLhane ls Lhe deflned maLerlal/worklng fluld, wlLh 3-13 (LLL-uLL) and lgnlLlon
LemperaLure of 300C.
LNG ||ne - process equ|pment and hose
CperaLlng pressure ls seL Lo 10 bar(g). 1hls ls Lhe maxlmum operaLlng pressure for LnC
process equlpmenL accordlng Lo Luropean deslgn sLandard Ln1472-2.
J8

CperaLlng LemperaLure ls seL Lo -162C Lo keep Lhe lnvenLory ln llquefled sLaLe. 1he bunker
vessel (dlscharglng unlL) ls assumed Lo be able Lo malnLaln Lhls consLanL LemperaLure durlng
Lhe LransporLaLlon Lo slLe.
uenslLy depends on LemperaLure and pressure. 8ased on Lhe deflned process parameLers
Lhe denslLy ls 423kg/m
3
.
Vapor return ||ne (NG) - process equ|pment and hose
ressure ls seL Lo 2bar(g) as lL wlll be reduced compared Lo LnC llne.
1emperaLure ls seL Lo -100C. 1he llquld has been warmed and ls now ln a vapor sLaLe.
uenslLy 4.3kg/m
3

1anks
1he pressure ln Lhe Lanks ls seL Lo 2 bar(g). 1he Swedlsh Marlne 1echnology lorum, LogeLher
wlLh unv and oLhers, have sLaLed LhaL Lhe barge can operaLe wlLh a pressure of up Lo 3
bar(g) aL -163C. 1he Lyplcal operaLlng pressure wlll however be closer Lo 2 bar(g).
39

16
3.3.8 Lqu|pment D|mens|ons
nose
Cne LnC llne and one nC (vapor reLurn llne) for Lhe sysLem.
LnC: 6 lnch (132mm) dlameLer
nC (vapor reLurn): 2 lnch (31mm) dlameLer
10m lengLh (correcL lengLh depends on Lhe vessels freeboard changes and movemenLs
40
)
|p|ng
6 lnch dlameLer (same as hose)
10m lengLh on dlscharglng and 20m lengLh on recelvlng. 1he lengLhs are based on
assumpLlons wlLh regards Lo vessels slze (dlscharglng ls smaller Lhan recelvlng).
1anks
ulscharglng unlL: 200m
3
Lank
8ecelvlng unlL: 200m
3
x 2 Lanks
1anks are consldered ln Lhe analysls, as Lhey are consldered Lo be locaLed exLernally (l.e. noL
ln a conflned space). LnC fuel and sLorage Lanks are ofLen exLernal due Lo LnC Lank slze (ln
case of an LnC fuel converslon). 1he Lanks wlll ofLen have Lo be placed ln an unenclosed area
on Lhe vessel, meanlng LhaL Lhe conservaLlve approach ls Lo lnclude Lanks.


17
3.4 LNG
1hls secLlon wlll descrlbe Lhe characLerlsLlcs and hazards assoclaLed wlLh an LnC leakage/release, and
deflne Lhe relevanL groups of ouLflow scenarlos.
3.4.1 LNG Character|st|cs
LnC ls nC cooled Lo abouL -162C (-260l) aL aLmospherlc pressure. lL ls a condensed mlxLure of
meLhane (CP
4
), approxlmaLely 83-96mol, and a small percenLage of heavler hydrocarbons. LnC ls
clear, colorless, odorless, non-corroslve and non-Loxlc. ln llquld form lL ls approxlmaLely 43 Lhe
denslLy of waLer, and as vapor lL ls approxlmaLely 30 denslLy of alr and wlll rlse under normal
aLmospherlc condlLlons. LnC ls called a cryogenlc llquld- deflned as subsLances LhaL llquefles aL a
LemperaLure below -73C (-100l) aL aLmospherlc pressure. 1he process of llquefacLlon reduces Lhe
volume Lo 1/600
Lh
of lLs orlglnal volume, provldlng efflclenL sLorage and LransporL.
41


3.4.2 LNG Safety Issues
ln lLs llquld form, LnC cannoL explode and lL ls noL flammable. Pazards arlse when LnC reLurns Lo lLs
gaseous sLaLe Lhrough an unconLrolled release. 1he release can for lnsLance be caused by a Lank
rupLure due Lo exLernal lmpacL, leaks from flanges ln Lhe plpework, or a plpe break eLc.

1he hazards can be dlvlded lnLo Lwo caLegorles:
1. Cryogenlc effecLs from LnC
Lxposure Lo a llquld aL -163C wlll cause humans Lo freeze and sLeel equlpmenL Lo become
brlLLle. 8rlLLle sLeel can break and cause addlLlonal secondary fallures.

2. llre and exploslon
Cnce Lhe LnC has leaked, lL wlll form a pool of llquld LnC. 1hls pool wlll sLarL Lo evaporaLe
and form a cloud of gas, prlmarlly conslsLlng of meLhane. 1hls gas wlll sLarL mlxlng wlLh alr
(wlLh a 20.9 oxygen raLlo), and once lL reaches a mlxLure beLween 3-13 gas, lL ls lgnlLable.
CuLslde Lhe crlLlcal level, an exploslon or flre wlll noL occur. 8elow Lhe lower exploslon level
(LLL) Lhere ls lnsufflclenL amounL of meLhane. Slmllarly, above Lhe upper exploslon level
(uLL) Lhere ls lnsufflclenL amounL of oxygen presenL. 1he crlLlcal flammablllLy and exploslon
level ls a 9 raLlo of nC Lo alr, see flgure 8.

WlLhouL an lgnlLlon source, Lhe gas wlll conLlnue Lo evaporaLe, dlsperse aL ground level whlle
cold, sLarL Lo warm and rlse Lo Lhe sky (as meLhane ls llghLer Lhan alr), and LhereafLer drlfL
away unLll Lhe enLlre llquld pool ls gone. LnC evaporaLes qulckly, and dlsperses, leavlng no
resldue. 1here ls no envlronmenLal cleanup needed for LnC spllls on waLer or land. lf an
lgnlLlon source ls presenL, Lhe gas cloud could lgnlLe, buL only aL Lhe edges where Lhe
meLhane concenLraLlon ls wlLhln Lhe aforemenLloned range. 1here wlll be an lnlLlal flash, noL
very vlolenL, as Lhe gas cloud lgnlLes, and lL wlll conLlnue Lo burn back Lo Lhe pool as a flash
flre. 1he gas wlll conLlnue Lo burn as lL evaporaLes unLll Lhe pool of LnC ls gone.

lor an exploslon Lo Lake place Lhe gas Lyplcally needs Lo be ln a conflned space (such as
lnslde a bulldlng or vessel), reach Lhe rlghL mlxLure wlLh oxygen and have Lhe presence of an
lgnlLlon source. ln Lhls evenL, Lhere could be an exploslon causlng overpressure, drag loads
and poLenLlal damage Lo llfe and properLy.
42



18

I|gure 9: Lxp|os|on]I|ammab|||ty Curve
43



3.4.3 Cutf|ow Scenar|os
<"D"<"# EA50 /:.99/ F 5,5G:2)//82.H)- IJK
LnC sLored ln Lanks wlll be aL aLmospherlc pressure (l.e. non-pressurlzed). ressure rellef valves are
lmplemenLed and flxed Lo only allow small levels of neL poslLlve pressure and any boll-off gas ls
collecLed. A release of non-pressurlzed LnC wlll noL lnclude pressure flashlng from llquld Lo gas. 1he
phase change occurs due Lo rapld heaL Lransfer and boll-off. uependlng on Lhe leak slze and helghL of
release, LnC can elLher evaporaLe lmmedlaLely or form pools, as descrlbed earller.
44


<"D"<"! L.:)GM:2,@)// )?8.:7)5* /:.99/ F :2)//82.H)- IJK
LnC process equlpmenL for Lransfers wlll have some degree of pressure Lo allow for Lhe Lransfer Lo
Lake place. ressure ln Lhe process equlpmenL can range from 0-10bar(g), as descrlbed ln secLlon
3.3.7: 1ransfer roperLles. 1yplcal operaLlng pressure ls 3bar(g).
43
CuLflow scenarlos ln Lhese process
secLlons wlll depend on Lhe pressure ln addlLlon Lo Lhe sLaLlc head. uue Lo Lhe pressure, llquld sprays
and [eL scan can Lake place and be slgnlflcanL Lo Lhe ouLflow form. lormaLlon of llquld pools wlll be
equlvalenL Lo non-pressurlzed releases.
46


<"D"<"< N./:)2/.,5
uue Lo condensaLlon of aLmospherlc molsLure and Lhe lnlLlal very cold LemperaLure of Lhe llquld, Lhe
meLhane and oLher presenL heavy hydrocarbons wlll form a dense gas when evaporaLlng from Lhe
pool. 1hese clouds wlll dlsperse wlLh Lhe wlnd and mlx wlLh Lhe alr. CravlLaLlonal effecLs caused by
denslLy relaLlons, aLmospherlc Lurbulence (asqull sLablllLy) and heaL Lransfer wlLh Lhe alr creaLes Lhe
blend. lurLher deLalls on Lhls wlll be presenLed under secLlon 3.6: WeaLher CondlLlons.
47


<"D"<"D >9A/+ >.2)
llash flre ls when Lhe meLhane cloud has caughL flre ln lLs cloud edges, where Lhe concenLraLlon level
of meLhane ls wlLhln Lhe LlL-ulL range due Lo dlsperslon effecLs. lf a cloud caLches flre lL wlll flash
back" across all lLs flammable mass (l.e. mass wlLhln Lhe flammable range), followed by burnlng aL Lhe
ulL boundary unLll everyLhlng ls dlspersed and consumed. ool flres are lgnlLed and formed when Lhe
flash flre reaches Lhe evaporaLlng pool of LnC. 1he flre wlll burn above Lhe pool ln Lhe evaporaLed gas
ln combusLlble gas-alr concenLraLlons.
48


19
CLher Lypes of flres and exploslons can also Lake place afLer an LnC leak, such as flreball, 8LLvL,
vapor cloud exploslon and [eL flre. 1hese Lypes of flres and exploslons are however less llkely Lo Lake
place. Lxploslons wlll noL Lake place as Lhe enLlre Lransfer sysLem for S1S ls exLerlor (l.e. noL ln a
conflned space), and lf flres Lakes place Lhey wlll ln mosL cases lead Lo flash flres. A flash flre ls
consldered Lo have Lhe maxlmal hazardous effecLs on a LCC scenarlo. 1herefore Lhe addlLlonal
reacLlons wlll noL be dlscussed ln Lhls secLlon nor lncluded ln Lhe analysls.

<"D"<"= >9A77AO.9.*3MPQ:9,/.,5 I.7.*/
LLL and LlL (same goes for uLL and ulL) ls Lhe same unlL and are used lnLerchangeably ln Lhe
lndusLry. 1hls ls because Lhe exploslon (LLL) and flammablllLy (LlL) ranges are Lhe same.

lgnlLlon leadlng Lo flash flre (or exploslons) can occur as far ouL (/away from Lhe leak) as Lhe Lower
llammable LlmlL (LlL). 1he dlsLance effecL shall be calculaLed uslng xLlL (2.3 meLhane). 1he
fracLlon of Lhe LlL ls lncluded Lo accounL for uncerLalnLles ln Lhe dlsperslon and effecLs of lmperfecL
mlxlng. 1hls facLor wlll be lncluded ln Lhe analysls and modellng.
49



20
3.S Naut|ca| Act|v|ty
1he rlsks assoclaLed wlLh LnC bunkerlng can be spllL lnLo rlsks lnherenL Lo Lhe process equlpmenL and
rlsks speclflc Lo Lhe bunkerlng locaLlon. Scenarlos relaLed Lo locaLlon can ln many cases be domlnanL
for Lhe overall rlsk plcLure. ConsequenLly lL ls lmporLanL Lo hlghllghL locaLlon requlremenLs ldenLlfled
by auLhorlLles.

A parL of Lhe locaLlon deLalls ls already deflned wlLhln Lhe deflnlLlon of bunkerlng, lL should be locaLed
wlLhln porLs or shelLered locaLlons. AddlLlonally we know LhaL boLh unlLs wlll be seaborne for S1S.
WlLh basls ln Lhls, Lhe followlng assumpLlons are made wlLh respecL Lo Lhe bunkerlng locaLlon and
nauLlcal acLlvlLy:
1he area ls overall quallfled as very low ln Lerms of nauLlcal acLlvlLy/Lrafflc denslLy.
CLher shlps/vessels ln lmmedlaLe presence are berLhed whlle Lhe bunkerlng Lakes place.
Any movlng vessel wlll have a veloclLy of 3 knoLs or less (Lyplcal porL speed llmlL). 1hls wlll
ensure llmlLed lmpacL energy ln case of colllslon.
30

LocaLlon characLerlsLlcs are ofLen spllL lnLo onshore or offshore slmulLaneous operaLlons (SlMCS).
lurLher deLalls on Lhls wlll be explalned ln secLlon 4.2.1: lrequency Analysls.
3.S.1 Secur|ty 2one
ln Lhe unv 8 a securlLy zone ls recommended. A securlLy zone ls Lhe safeLy dlsLance Lo oLher passlng
vessels. 1hls zone ls esLabllshed as a flrsL layer of defense ln reduclng Lhe frequency of LnC LCC
scenarlos. 1he purpose of Lhe securlLy zone ls Lo reduce Lhe llkellhood of LnC release caused by
exLernal lmpacLs. 8educLlon ls achleved by monlLorlng acLlvlLles and Lrafflc wlLhln Lhe zone.

1he securlLy zone ls noL an excluslon zone, whlch ls anoLher well-used zone ln Lhe lndusLry LhaL marks
speclflc boundarles for all oLher forms of operaLlon. ulsLance beLween Lhe bunkerlng area Lo oLher
passlng vessels or oLher slmulLaneous operaLlons ls currenLly noL unlversally deflned, as Lhls dlsLance
wlll depend on bunkerlng conflguraLlon, sysLem and process parameLers. 1he Lerm 'lmmedlaLe
presence' ls Lherefore currenLly used ln Lhe 8. 1he securlLy zone wlll be dlscussed based on Lhe
flndlngs from Lhe rlsk assessmenL. Maxlmum dlscharge lengLhs ln Lhe evenL of a LCC are Lhe key
parameLers for esLabllshlng Lhe zones. 1hls wlll be dlscussed furLher ln secLlon 4.3.1.3: SecurlLy zones.


21
3.6 Weather Cond|t|ons
1he consequence of Lhe releases of flammable and Loxlc maLerlals lnLo Lhe aLmosphere depends
sLrongly upon Lhe raLe aL whlch Lhe released maLerlal ls dlluLed and dlspersed Lo safe concenLraLlons.
1he raLe of dlsperslon depends upon Lhe meLeorologlcal condlLlons prevalllng aL Lhe Llme of release.
MeLeorologlcal parameLers such as Lhe wlnd speed, dlrecLlon and Lurbulence facLors are of
lmporLance.

WeaLher condlLlons wlll be consldered ln Lhe senslLlvlLy analysls. Slx represenLaLlve weaLher scenarlos
wlLh varlous condlLlons have been esLabllshed. 1he condlLlons vary beLween Lwo Lypes of wlnd
speeds and Lhree Lypes of sLablllLy facLors. 1he oLher facLors (LemperaLure, humldlLy and solar
radlaLlon flux) remaln consLanL.

Weather data
W|nd speed m/s 2 3 2 3 2 3
asqu|| stab|||ty A A C C L L
Atm. 1emp C 20 20 20 20 20 20
ke|at|ve num|d|ty 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
So|ar rad|at|on f|ux kW/m2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Surface type Cpen waLer (splll over waLer) / uefaulL (splll over land)

3.6.1 asqu|| Stab|||ty
1hls descrlbes Lhe amounL of Lurbulence ln Lhe aLmosphere. 1he sLablllLy depends on several
condlLlons such as Llme of day, solar radlaLlon and wlnd speed.
31
See Appendlx A, for an example of
sLablllLy facLors.

A: very unsLable - sunny, llghL wlnds
C: neuLral - llLLle sun and hlgh wlnd or overcasL/wlndy nlghL
L: moderaLely sLable - less overcasL and less wlndy nlghL

3.6.2 W|nd kose
1he lnfluence of any speclflc weaLher caLegory and dlrecLlon wlll vary for each and every release. 1he
dlsperslon and consequences assoclaLed wlLh LnC (and oLher dense gas releases) are relaLlvely
senslLlve Lo assumpLlons affecLlng Lhe heaL Lransfer Lo Lhe cloud. Pence, Lhe above values are
relaLlvely conservaLlve represenLaLlve condlLlons, buL wlll noL necessarlly correspond Lo Lhe worsL-
case dlsperslon condlLlons LhaL may occur. Cverall, Lhe resulLlng lnfluence of any changes ln Lhe
meLrologlcal assumpLlons wlll have negllglble lnfluence on Lhe rlsk resulLs.
32


1he wlnd dlrecLlons ln a speclflc locaLlon are lncluded ln Lhe analysls Lhrough Lhe wlnd rose lnpuLs ln
PAS18lsk. 1yplcal wlnd rose degrees for any locaLlon can be found ln publlc domalns. lor a wlnd rose
example, see flgure 9 of LnC planL ln Sola, SLavanger.
33
ln Lhls reporL, locaLlon ls noL deflned
speclflcally, Lhus generlc and equal dlsLrlbuLlon over all angles ls assumed.

22

I|gure 10: W|nd rose examp|e, So|a, Stavanger.
23
3.7 Imp|emented Safeguards
1here are varlous represslve sysLems (safeguards) presenL wlLhln Lhe esLabllshmenL. 1hese sysLems
can reduce Lhe ouLflow duraLlon ln Lhe case of a fallure scenarlo, llmlLlng Lhe leak/loss of
conLalnmenL. 1he ouLflow duraLlon (Llme lL Lakes from scenarlo lnlLlaLlon Lo sLop) ls known as
lsolaLlon Llme. 1he presenL secLlon provldes an overvlew over Lhe represslve sysLems, deflnes Lhe
relevanL lsolaLlon Llme (whlch wlll be lncluded ln Lhe C8A) and Lhelr probablllLles of fallure.
3.7.1 Automat|c Iso|at|on
<"R"#"# B,5*2,9 A5- (,5.*,2.5C S3/*)7/
ConLrol and MonlLorlng SysLems need Lo comply wlLh Lhe lMC documenL MSC 283(86). All
lnsLallaLlons need Lo be equlpped wlLh conLrol monlLorlng and safeLy sysLems. 1he mosL essenLlal
monlLorlng sysLem ls gas deLecLlon. 1he process secLlons LhaL are crlLlcal for supervlslon are secLlons
where unlnLended release of gas can occur such as around manlfolds, double walled plpes and
enclosed areas conLalnlng plpe work assoclaLed wlLh Lhe bunkerlng operaLlon.
34


1he conLrol and monlLorlng sysLem should be dlrecLly llnked Lo Lhe Lmergency ShuLdown SysLem
(LSu). 1he lndlvldual shuLdown lnlLlaLors wlll vary for each lnsLallaLlon. Mlnlmum conLrol and
monlLorlng requlremenLs, on boLh dlsLrlbuLlng and recelvlng unlLs, are:
1. oslLlon (open/closed) and hlgh-pressure deLecLor ln all bunker manlfold valves.
2. CperaLlon of any manual emergency sLop push buLLon.
3. 'CuL of range' senslng on Lhe flxed loadlng arm.
4. Cas deLecLlon (above 40 LLL)
3. llre deLecLlon
6. Plgh-pressure and hlgh-level deLecLors ln recelvlng LnC Lank.
7. Plgh/low-pressure and hlgh-level deLecLors ln dlsLrlbuLlng LnC sLorage Lank.
<"R"#"! P7)2C)5@3 S+8*-,;5 S3/*)7 TPSNU
LSu ls Lhe maln componenL ln Lhe auLomaLlc blocklng. 1be ptlmoty fooctloo of tbe 5u system ls to
stop llpolJ ooJ vopot ttoosfet lo tbe eveot of oo oosofe cooJltloo ooJ btloq tbe lNC ttoosfet system to
o sofe, stotlc cooJltloo.
33
ln Lhe S1S bunkerlng arrangemenL, only Lhe dlscharglng unlL wlll have an
LSu. 1hls ls based on Lhe class rules for bunkerlng arrangemenL, whlch sLaLes LhaL lL ls noL mandaLory
for Lhe recelvlng unlL Lo have an LSu valve (see flgure 10). 1he conservaLlve assumpLlon ls Lherefore
LhaL lL ls noL presenL.
24

I|gure 11: ku|e for bunker|ng arrangement (source DNV)

<"R"#"< P7)2C)5@3 &)9)A/) B,8:9)2/ TP&BU
Lmergency 8elease Couplers (L8C) or breakaway couplers are Lo be flLLed on boLh unlLs, beLween Lhe
flexlble cryogenlc Lransfer hose and Lhe flange connecLlon. 1he L8C ls Lo lncorporaLe lnLegral
auLomaLlc valves LhaL wlll close when separaLed, elLher by naLure of lLs deslgn or by remoLe
moLorlzed operaLlon. lLs funcLlon ls Lo prevenL release of llquld or vapor Lo Lhe surroundlngs Lhrough
rapld closure. under excesslve Lenslon (l.e. ln a rupLure evenL) lL serves as a weak llnk provldlng
auLomaLed release Lo avold Lhe hose from breaklng. lL allows for qulck connecLlon and
dlsconnecLlon.
36
L8C manufacLurers reporL LhaL closure of Lhe ouLflow area ls mechanlcally drlven and
Lakes less Lhan a second Lo reacL.
37
1hls lmmedlaLe response ln Lhe L8C makes lL a very effecLlve Lool
for subsLanLlally reduclng LCC ln Lhe case of a LhreaLenlng scenarlo.

3.7.2 Cperator Intervent|on
A Lralned operaLor should be avallable on slLe Lo supervlse and lnLervene ln any unsafe slLuaLlons LhaL
mlghL arlse, LhroughouL Lhe process. CperaLor lnLervenLlon wlll Lake place lf Lhe auLomaLlc sysLem
falls.
3.7.3 Iso|at|on 1|mes
lsolaLlon Llmes wlll vary for each scenarlo and mlLlgaLlng measure. keeplng Lhe lnLervenLlon Llme low
ls slgnlflcanL ln llmlLlng Lhe amounL of subsLance released durlng LCC. Several bunkerlng guldellnes
and pasL sLudles provlde varlous reacLlon Llmes for Lhe sysLem conLrlbuLlng Lo Lhe overall lsolaLlon
Llme. AfLer conslderlng several opLlons dependlng on effecLlveness, and conslderlng LhaL lsolaLlon
Llme ls a parameLer whlch wlll lmprove as Lechnology advances, Lhe followlng Llmes ln seconds are
deflned
38
:
Small leak, LSu works: 120s
Medlum and large leak, LSu works: 13s (qulcker deLecLlon)
S, M and L, LSu falls buL operaLor lnLervenes: 120s (operaLors are aL all Llmes managlng Lhe
bunkerlng process and wearlng gas measurlng equlpmenL)
S, M and L, LSu and operaLor falls: 1800s (maxlmum ouLflow Llme)

23
3.7.4 robab|||t|es of Ia||ure
1he mlLlgaLlng acLlons need Lo be deflned for Lhelr probablllLles of fallure. 8eference sources
dlsLlngulsh beLween Lhree Lypes of operaLed valves. 1he LSu ls consldered connecLed Lo a
compuLerlzed sysLem and ls Lherefore classlfled as auLomaLlc wlLh a 0.001 probablllLy of fallure per
operaLlon. CperaLor lnLeracLlons have a 0.1 probablllLy Lo fall.
39


ln Lhe evenL of hose dlsconnecLlon Lhe L8C (break-away) sysLem ls lnvolved. robablllLy of fallure daLa
has been dlfflculL Lo obLaln, buL ls consldered hlghly rellable. neverLheless, for Lhls sLudy a 0.1
probablllLy of fallure ls assumed.
60













26
4 k|sk Assessment
4.1 k|sk Ident|f|cat|on
4.1.1 nazard Ident|f|cat|on (nA2ID)
1o undersLand Lhe rlsks lnvolved ln LnC bunkerlng, a Lechnlque called Pazard ldenLlflcaLlon (PAZlu) ls
employed. 1he varlous scenarlos of a LnC bunkerlng operaLlon are sysLemaLlcally analyzed Lo ldenLlfy
Lhe rlsks and Lhey are Lhen sub[ecL Lo frequency esLlmaLlons and consequence modellng. 1he maln
hazards recognlzed ln Lhls sLudy relaLe Lo LnC leakage, also know as LCC of LnC, excluslvely durlng
Lhe bunkerlng operaLlon. Pazards LhaL arlse from lnLermedlaLe LnC sLorage (l.e. on land sLorage or ln
shuLLle Lankers used Lo LransporL LnC) are noL consldered wlLhln Lhe scope of Lhls sLudy. uurlng Lhe
hazard ldenLlflcaLlon, Lhe cause, consequence and credlblllLy of each of Lhe hazards have been
ldenLlfled.

1he work process ln Lhls sLudy sLarLed by comparlng PAZluS ln pasL unv pro[ecLs on LnC. ln Appendlx
8, an example of Lhe process secLlons, equlpmenL and scenarlos LhaL are consldered are llsLed. 1he
unv 8 recommends Lhls Lable. PAZlu resulLs lnclude a llsL descrlblng Lhe LhreaLs and a rlsk-ranklng
maLrlx. 8lsk-ranklng maLrlxes prlorlLlze Lhe evenLs Lhrough evaluaLlon of Lhelr severlLy. Medlum- and
hlgh-rlsk evenLs should be analyzed numerlcally ln Lhe C8A. 8oLh of Lhese Lables can be seen ln
Appendlx 8 and C. 1he PAZlu resulLs wlll be used Lo form Lhe bow-Lle model explalned below.

4.1.2 8ow-1|e Mode|
PAZlu ls a process performed Lo undersLand Lhe poLenLlal causes and consequences of an LnC
leakage. 1hls lnformaLlon ls fundamenLal Lo bulld a bow-Lle model, whlch ls a Lool for undersLandlng
Lhe mechanlsms of a hazardous evenL.
27
4.1.3 LNG Leak Causes
ln flgure 11, a hlerarchy of ldenLlfled fallure mechanlsms LhaL could lnlLlaLe a LnC leak/LCC durlng
bunkerlng ls shown.


I|gure 12: Ident|f|ed fa||ure mechan|sms - LNG |eakage causes
1he orange colored boxes represenL Lhe lnlLlal evenLs. 1hese could Lhen lead Lo Lhe secondary evenLs,
whlch are represenLed by Lhe Lurquolse colored boxes, and flnally, Lhe purple colored boxes
represenL a leak. lor unplanned dlsconnecLlon Lhe evenLs are exacLly Lhe same as for damage/rupLure
case (Lhls ls marked by Lhe [*] box), Lo slmpllfy Lhe model (l.e. Lhe evenL Lree ls exacLly Lhe same for
boLh maln evenLs excepL for Lhe addlLlonal fallure of poorly made up connecLlons ln Lhe sysLem).

lor ease of modellng Lhe LnC sysLem ls spllL lnLo process secLlons. llgure 12 shows how Lhe sysLem
has been spllL ln Lhls sLudy. 1he varlous process secLlons have dlfferenL Lypes of equlpmenL, whlch
needs Lo be consldered, and wlll Lherefore be calculaLed and modeled for frequencles ln dlfferenL
ways.

28

I|gure 13: LNG bunker|ng transfer system process sect|ons

4.1.3.1 Ident|f|cat|on of Loss of Conta|nment Scenar|os
8ased on Lhe process secLlon separaLlon, a llsL of LCC scenarlos has been ldenLlfled.
1. Pose leakage - small
2. Pose leakage - medlum
3. Pose leakage - large (l88)
4. Pose dlsconnecLlon - L8C works
3. Pose dlsconnecLlon - L8C falls (l88)
6. ulscharglng Lank leakage
7. 8ecelvlng Lank leakage
8. ulscharge llne (plplng, flanges, valves, pump eLc.) leakage - small
9. ulscharge llne leakage - medlum
10. ulscharge llne leakage - large (l88)
11. 8ecelvlng llne leakage - small
12. 8ecelvlng llne leakage - medlum
13. 8ecelvlng llne leakage - large (l88)
All of Lhese scenarlos wlll be evaluaLed for emergency shuLdown sysLem (LSu) worklng, LSu fallure
wlLh operaLor lnLervenLlon, and LSu and operaLor fallure.

LnC leakage
ulscharglng
unlL
rocess
equlpmenL
leak
uamaged /
8upLure /
unexpecLed
release
1ank leak
uamaged /
8upLure
lnLerface
Pose leak
uamaged /
8upLure
ulsconnecuon
(unplanned)
8ecelvlng unlL
rocess
equlpmenL
leak
uamaged /
8upLure /
unexpecLed
release
1ank leak
uamaged /
8upLure
29
4.1.4 LNG Leak Consequences
1he consequences reflecL Lhe LnC hazards and ouLcomes of a leak dlscussed ln secLlon 3.4: LnC.
Puman accldenLs due Lo frosL burns requlre very close conLacL wlLh LnC, and reallsLlcally Lhls wlll only
be a rlsk Lo Lhe LnC Lransfer operaLors, noL Lhlrd parLy lndlvlduals. LqulpmenL damage and
envlronmenLal effecLs are also crlLlcal lssues, buL noL relaLed Lo safeLy zone calculaLlons. 1he maln
concern for Lhls sLudy ls Lhe consequence of flre and exploslons. llre and exploslons does however
noL happen as a dlrecL resulL of Lhe leak. llre and exploslon requlres a leak, a mlx wlLh alr aL correcL
concenLraLlons and Lhe presence of an lgnlLlon source. 1he calculaLlon of leak probablllLy ls Lhe largesL
parL of Lhe workload, whlle Lhe llkellhood of lgnlLlon presences ls added as a slngle probablllLy ranglng
from 0-100 probablllLy per leak evenL.



LnC leakage
Puman healLh - frosL
burns, ln[urles and
faLallues
LqulpmenL and shlp -
cryogenlc damage
and/or embrlulemenL
(meLal)
Pull breach
(lurLher LCC
posslble)
ulsrupuons/delay of
operauons and
deparLure plans
LnvlronmenLal
damage caused by
emlsslons
>.2) A5- PQ:9,/.,5/
TV4 .C5.W,5 /,82@) ./
:2)/)5*U
30
4.2 k|sk Ana|ys|s
4.2.1 Irequency Ana|ys|s
1he frequency analysls deLermlnes Lhe llkellhood of a release of hazardous LnC/nC from process
equlpmenL for LnC bunkerlng. 1he ob[ecLlve of Lhe LLAk frequency analysls ls Lo esLlmaLe Lhe
frequency of accldenLal releases orlglnaLlng from Lhe process equlpmenL of Lhe dlscharglng and
recelvlng unlL ln a shlp-Lo-shlp (S1S) LnC bunkerlng sysLem. 1he lnLerface beLween Lhe dlscharglng
and recelvlng unlLs, Lhe cryogenlc Lransfer hose, wlll be covered separaLely Lhrough faulL Lree analysls.

1he frequency analysls comblned wlLh Lhe hole slze dlsLrlbuLlon are fundamenLal for Lhe
consequence- and rlsk esLlmaLes.
61
1he aggregaLe frequency analysls resulL wlll subsequenLly provlde
lnpuLs for PAS1 and PAS18lsk calculaLlons and modellng. All frequencles wlll be esLabllshed on a
per bunkerlng operaLlon basls.
4.2.2 1ransfer nose Ia||ure Irequenc|es
1he lnLerface beLween Lhe Lwo unlLs covers Lhe cryogenlc hose and vapor reLurn llne. 1hls process
secLlon cannoL be calculaLed uslng LLAk sofLware as Lhere ls no daLa coverlng hoses and ln parLlcular
noL cryogenlc. 1o produce leak frequencles for Lhe hose, a faulL Lree ls creaLed and evenLs leadlng Lo a
leakage are consldered aL a fundamenLal level. 1he alm ls Lo creaLe generlc fallure frequencles for
flexlble cryogenlc Lransfer hoses.

CurrenL sLandard pracLlce ls Lo use daLa from Advlsory CommlLLee on uangerous SubsLances (ACuS)
on loadlng arm frequencles dlrecLly. ACuS ls consldered Lhe mosL represenLaLlve daLa on LnC
bunkerlng sysLems so far. Loadlng arms are more complex flxed plpes wlLh mulLlple swlvel sysLems,
and dlffer slgnlflcanLly from hose based sysLems ln Lerms of Lhe faulL Lree. Loadlng arms wlll as a
consequence lnclude oLher facLors ln addlLlon Lo conslderlng Lhe ACuS. 1hls wlll be a more
conservaLlve approach, and lL also shows Lhe procedure ln calculaLlng frequencles from lnlLlal Lo maln
evenL.

1hls secLlon wlll presenL whaL ls consldered lnlLlal evenLs, whlch could lead Lo LnC leakage or LCC
Laklng place and explanaLlons for deLermlnlng evenL frequencles. 1he assumpLlons made wlll be
summarlzed. When Lhe relevanL evenLs are deLermlned, Lhe faulL Lree" (excel add-ln) wlll be used Lo
calculaLe Lhe frequencles for Lhls process secLlon of Lhe Lransfer sysLem.

8ased on Lhe PAZlu Lwo maln Lypes of fallures have been ldenLlfled for Lhe flexlble cryogenlc Lransfer
hose: an unplanned dlsconnecLlon (of Lhe breakaway coupllng) and damage or rupLure of Lhe hose,
see flgure 12.

31
4.2.2.1 Iau|t 1ree
ln Lhls sLudy, nlne lnlLlal evenLs have been ldenLlfled, and flve gaLes. A full plcLure and lnpuL overvlew
for Lhe faulL Lree model can be seen ln Appendlx L. 1he followlng Lwo flgures, 13 and 14, wlll provlde
an overvlew over lnlLlal evenLs consldered (purple colored boxes) and gaLes (blue colored boxes) for
esLabllshlng Lhe frequencles. uue Lo space llmlLaLlons Lhe LoLal model ls spllL ln Lwo secLlons: flgure 13
covers damage rupLure evenLs and flgure 14 covers dlsconnecLlon.

I|gure 14: Iau|t tree - hose |eak from damage]rupture


I|gure 1S: Iau|t tree - hose |eak from d|sconnect|on
32
4.2.2.1.1 SIMCS Cffshore
SlMCS Cffshore are slmulLaneous operaLlons Laklng place offshore. 1hls fallure evenL relaLes Lo
colllslon rlsk and frequencles. 1hls Lype of fallure ls slLe-speclflc, meanlng LhaL lL wlll vary dependlng
on Lhe porL Lrafflc ln LhaL speclflc locaLlon. ln slLe-speclflc sLudles, nauLlcal acLlvlLy ln a porL ls
consldered and colllslon frequencles and Lhelr lmpacL energles are calculaLed speclflcally. 1he
assessmenL wlll furLher cover Lhe probablllLy of LCC scenarlos. Cverall, Lhe assessmenL requlres hlgh
amounLs of porL daLa Lo be compleLed.

1hls Lhesls ls generlc and noL slLe-speclflc. As such lL does noL lnclude conslderaLlons relevanL Lo a
speclflc slLe. 1he selecLed fallure frequency represenLs colllslons as a whole and does noL lnclude
lnformaLlon on Lhe slze and force of Lhe lmpacL, nor Lhe ensulng consequences. 1he frequency ls
consldered low, and Lo be conservaLlve lL ls assumed LhaL all colllslons lead Lo LCC fallures for Lhe
hose. A low SlMCS Cffshore frequency ls reasonable slnce Lhe bunkerlng ls consldered Lo Lake place
ln porLs or oLher shelLered locaLlons, as dlscussed ln secLlon 3.3: nauLlcal AcLlvlLy.

ACuS loadlng arm frequency conslder colllslons as one of lLs conLrlbuLors Lo fallure. 1he frequency
consequenLly used ls 2.30L-07.
62
Leak frequencles presenLed ln ACuS ls based on fllllng of LnC
Lankers, whlch Lyplcally lasL for 18-24hours. A ferry has a much shorLer duraLlon, assumed Lo lasL Lwo
hours per bunkerlng operaLlon, ln Lhls sLudy. 1he frequencles are consequenLly modlfled accordlng Lo
duraLlon.

SLaLlsLlcs musL be gaLhered over several decades Lo glve rellable ouLcome (sample populaLlon). Small-
scale S1S bunkerlng has only been a Lechnlcal soluLlon slnce 2001 (norweglan ferry CluLra was Lhe
flrsL LnC fueled shlp), and any daLa complled ls noL consldered sufflclenL. 1he chosen frequency ls
conservaLlve conslderlng LhaL colllslon evenLs have been reduced over Llme, aLLrlbuLed Lo
lnLroducLlon of dynamlc poslLlonlng sysLems and lmproved communlcaLlon sysLems, elecLronlc
charLlng, navlgaLlonal Lechnlques and lmproved procedures. 8ased on Lhls, any colllslon frequency
chosen based on hlsLorlcal daLa should be conservaLlve Lo currenL expecLed frequency.

D"!"!"#"! SV(XLS X5/+,2)
SlMCS Cnshore are slmulLaneous operaLlons Laklng place onshore and refers Lo fallures such as
dropped ob[ecLs, falllng goods and lmpacLs. 1he LnC fueled vessel (recelvlng unlL) wlll ln Lhe case of
small-scale LnC bunkerlng be moored Lo dock. ln Lhe case of llmlLed porL Llme, slmulLaneous
operaLlons such as llfLlng of goods mlghL Lake place. lf Lhese operaLlons fall, lL could have
consequences for Lhe LnC process equlpmenL.

OCl - klsk Assessmeot uoto ultectoty, kepott No. 4J4-08 Mecboolcol llftloq follotes, ls used Lo
provlde frequencles for SlMCS Cffshore. ln parL Lwo, summary of recommended daLa, ln Lhe Lable
uropped ob[ecL probablllLles for moblle unlLs (per llfL)". 1he moblle unlL's probablllLy ls used lnsLead
of Lhe flxed as Lhe recelvlng shlp could experlence movemenL and for S1S boLh unlLs are seaborne. 1o
be conservaLlve ln Lhe cholce of frequency Lhe LoLal frequency used ls 1.4L-03. 1hls frequency
lncludes all Lypes of llfLlng fallures for moblle unlLs. lL ls also assumed LhaL SlMCS Cnshore Lakes
place once for every bunker operaLlon. 8y assumlng Lhls we can apply Lhe frequency dlrecLly as a per
operaLlon frequency. 1he assumpLlon Lo assume SlMCS every Llme ls very conservaLlve as currenL
LnC bunkerlng guldellnes advlce agalnsL such operaLlons whlle bunkerlng Lakes place.

33
D"!"!"#"< N2.4*G,44
urlfL-off fallures develop from moorlng fallure and loss of sLablllLy ln vessels. 1hls frequency can also
be provlded by ACuS (as for SlMCS Cffshore). 1he drlfL-off frequency ls consequenLly 6.70L-07 for
loadlng arm fallure for larger Lransfers. 1hls frequency wlll also be alLered Lo flL Lhe currenL sLudy.

D"!"!"#"D X1)24.99.5C6 X1)2:2)//82) A5- B,,9G-,;5
Cverfllllng and overpressure ln Lhe Lanks, can lead Lo fallures ln Lhe resL of Lhe process equlpmenL.
8apld cool-down ls a rlsk Lo Lhe enLlre process equlpmenL. 1hese Lypes of evenLs are furLher dlvlded
lnLo Lwo lnlLlal evenLs, whlch lnclude lnsLrumenLaLlon and/or sysLem fallure or operaLor error.

4.2.2.2.4.1 Contro| Ia||ure |n Instrumentat|on and Systems
ConLrol fallures ln lnsLrumenLaLlon and sysLems are dlvlded lnLo Lhree Lypes of fallures. lrequency
lnformaLlon on Lhese lnsLrumenLaLlons ls gaLhered from OkuA, Offsbote kelloblllty uoto 5
tb
eJltloo
2009, volome 1 - 1opslJe polpmeot (poqes 457, 479 ooJ 497). 1he fallure raLes glven are per hour of
operaLlon. 1here are 8760 hours ln a year, buL bunkerlng only Lakes place a fracLlon of Lhese hours.
LC (rogrammable Loglc ConLroller): 17.37L-06
LCv (Level ConLrol valve): 2.98L-06
Sensors: 3.33L-06
1hese frequencles wlll be modlfled Lo accounL for frequency per bunkerlng operaLlon.

4.2.2.2.4.2 Cperator Lrror (Mon|tor|ng)
OCl - klsk Assessmeot uoto ultectoty, kepott No. 4J4-05 nomoo foctots, ln C8A Lable 2.7 ls used Lo
provlde lnformaLlon on Lhe Puman Lrrors". Cnce proper Lralnlng has been provlded, monlLorlng of
Lhe operaLlon for an operaLor ls uncompllcaLed and repeLlLlve. 1he recelvlng unlL's conLrol room,
where monlLorlng Lakes place, should be sLress-free when ln porL. 8ased on Lhese assumpLlons, Lhe
operaLor error for monlLorlng quallfles as human error Lype 2, wlLh frequency 10L-04 per demand.
1hls number ls dlrecLly used as Lhe operaLor error per Lransfer.

D"!"!"#"= B,55)@*.,5 >A.982)/
lor unplanned dlsconnecLlon scenarlos, connecLlon fallure ls an addlLlonal evenL, whlch can Lake
place. ConnecLlon fallures can be dlvlded beLween equlpmenL fallures and operaLor error. 8oLh of
Lhese fallures can be obLalned from Lhe ACuS and once agaln Lhey wlll be modlfled Lo comply wlLh
bunkerlng Llme.

4.2.2.1.S.1 Lqu|pment Ia||ures
1he frequency ls comblned from Lwo lnlLlal sources and lncludes poor [olnLlng or connecLlon beLween
Lhe hose and plpework, and fallures ln Lhe qulck release connecLors. A leak could occur aL Lhe flange
face, resulLlng ln an lnlLlal slow release wlLh llLLle lmpacL aL flrsL, buL laLer develop Lhrough eroslon of
Lhe flange face maLerlal by Lhe leaklng fluld. 1he compleLe frequency for Lhls fallure ls 6.88L-03.

4.2.2.1.S.2 Cperator error (Connect|ons)
rlor Lo bunkerlng, Lhe hose ls connecLed Lo Lhe vessel's manlfold. 1he connecLlon ls esLabllshed
manually by an operaLor, whlch could lead Lo connecLlon errors for Lhe hose.
1he ACuS provldes a speclflc fallure raLe for connecLlon fallures by Lhe operaLor, 6.10L-06, whlch wlll
be used and modlfled accordlng Lo bunkerlng Llme.

34
4.2.2.2 1ransfer nose Ia||ure Irequency Cverv|ew
1hls Lable ls a summary of Lhe lnlLlal evenL frequencles LhaL wlll be used ln Lhe faulL Lree calculaLlons.
1he values presenLed represenL fallures per bunker operaLlon, afLer havlng been modlfled as
descrlbed for each speclflc fallure evenL. 1he compleLe calculaLlons for Lransfer hose (lnLerface)
fallure frequency can be seen ln Appendlx l.

In|t|a| fa||ure event Irequency [per bunker operat|on]
SIMCS Cffshore 2.30L-08
SIMCS Cnshore 1.40L-03
Dr|ft off 6.70L-08
LC 3.47L-03
LCV 3.96L-06
Sensor 7.06L-06
Cperat|ng error (mon|tor|ng) 1.00L-03
Lqu|pment fa||ures 6.88L-06
Cperator error (connect|on) 6.10L-07

When Lhls lnformaLlon ls added Lo Lhe faulL Lree excel add-ln, (Appendlx L), Lhe followlng resulLs are
produced:

Leakage scenar|o Irequency [per operat|on]
Damaged]ruptured tota| 1.41L-03
Small (70) 9.87L-06
Medlum (23) 3.33L-06
Large (3) 7.03L-07
D|sconnect|on tota| 8.33L-03

Leak slze dlsLrlbuLlon ls anoLher lmporLanL feaLure Lo Lhe analysls. lor dlsconnecLlon fallures, 100 of
Lhe LoLal frequency ls referred Lo as a large release or full bore rupLure (l88). ln Lhe case of
damaged/rupLured fallures, 70 ls a small leak, 23 ls a medlum leak and Lhe lasL 3 are large leaks.
1he uuLch guldellne for rlsk calculaLlons, also known as PA8l, ls a source open Lo Lhe publlc. lL
esLlmaLes LhaL hose leakage leads Lo rupLure ln 10 of Lhe cases when hoses are lnvolved. 1hls ls
however noL lncludlng LnC Lransfer hoses wlLh lLs advanced Lechnologles. unv CL pracLlce ln newer
frequency analysls sLudles esLlmaLe LhaL a 3 rupLure scenarlo for large leaks ls sufflclenLly
conservaLlve.

1he caLegorlzaLlon of leak evenL lnLo large (rupLure), medlum and small slzes ls a [udgmenL based on
unv's esLlmaLes of Lhe leak slzes Lyplcal for all hose fallures, LogeLher wlLh comparlson agalnsL hole
slze dlsLrlbuLlons for Lyplcal process leaks.

4.2.2.3 Vapor keturn
1he Lransfer sysLem ls equlpped wlLh a vapor reLurn llne. Source daLa provlded and gaLhered does noL
cover Lhe vapor reLurn llne expllclLly. vapor reLurn llne leaks are generally much less slgnlflcanL Lhan
for Lhe LnC llne lLself. 1he same frequencles wlll be used for Lhe vapor reLurn llne as for Lhe LnC llne
for Lhe varlous process secLlons. 1hls means LhaL we conslder Lhe same fallure raLes for vapor reLurn
llne as LnC llne. vapor reLurn llne wlll be parallel Lo Lhe LnC llne for every process secLlon lncludlng,
dlscharglng llne, recelvlng llne and Lransfer hose.

33
4.2.3 rocess Lqu|pment Ia||ure Irequency
1o calculaLe frequencles for Lhe process equlpmenL on elLher unlL (excepL for Lanks, see secLlon 4.3.4:
1anks lallure lrequency), LLAk sofLware can be used. 1o obLaln Lhe correcL frequencles Lhe sysLem
needs Lo be analyzed and equlpmenL needs Lo be counLed, and grouped LogeLher. lplng and
lnsLrumenLaLlon dlagram (&lu) has been analyzed for bunkerlng scenarlos and Lhe followlng sysLem
Lable has been concluded as represenLaLlve of a Lyplcal S1S arrangemenL.

S1S bunker|ng equ|pment count for LLAk
rocess sect|on L|ne (Segment) Lqu|pment
1ype Number S|ze (|nch)
D|scharg|ng Un|t
LnC ump LnC llne Small bore flLLlngs 7 0.3
llanges 1 1
1 4
7 6
4 10
AcLuaLed valve 1 2
1 4
1 6
Manual valve 13 1
10 2
1 3
3 4
1 6
1 10
ump 1 -
vapor reLurn llne Small 8ore flLLlngs 4 0.3
llanges 3 1
2 2
1 4
AcLuaLed valve 1 2
Manual valve 7 1
7 2
llow meLer LnC llne Small bore flLLlngs 14 0.3
llanges 6 6
10 8
AcLuaLed valve - -
Manual valve 10 1
4 2
10 6
vapor reLurn llne Small bore flLLlngs 1 0.3
llanges 4 4
AcLuaLed valve - -
Manual valve - -
upsLream Lo LSu
valve
LnC llne Small bore flLLlngs - -
llanges - -
AcLuaLed valve 1 6
36
Manual valve 3 1
1 2
1 3
1 6
vapor reLurn llne Small bore flLLlngs - -
llanges - -
AcLuaLed valve - -
Manual valve - -
uownsLream LSu
valve
LnC llne Small bore flLLlngs 6 0.3
llanges 2 6
AcLuaLed valve - -
Manual valve 3 1
3 2
vapor reLurn llne Small bore flLLlngs - -
llanges 1 4
AcLuaLed valve 1 2
Manual valve 2 1
3 2
1 6
kece|v|ng Un|t
8unker/ lnleL area

LnC llne Small bore flLLlngs 6 0.3
llanges 2 6
AcLuaLed valve - -
Manual valve 10 1
4 2
1 3
1 6
vapor reLurn llne Small bore flLLlngs - -
llanges 1 4
AcLuaLed valve 1 2
Manual valve 2 1
3 1
1 6
llow meLer LnC llne Small bore flLLlngs 14 0.3
llanges 6 6
10 8
AcLuaLed valve - -
Manual valve 10 1
4 2
10 6
vapor reLurn llne Small bore flLLlngs 1 0.3
llanges 4 4
AcLuaLed valve - -
Manual valve - -

37
D"!"<"#"# IP'Y '//87:*.,5/
1he followlng operaLlonal assumpLlons form Lhe basls of Lhe process LLAk frequency analysls:
1he operaLlng pressure ls seL Lo 10 bar(g) for Lhe LnC llne and 2 bar(g) for Lhe vapor reLurn
llne.
1he gas/llquld dlsLrlbuLlon raLlo ls 0/100 for Lhe LnC llne and 93/3 for Lhe vapor reLurn llne.
ump and LSu (auLomaLed valve) ls only presenL on Lhe dlscharglng slde.
8oLh sldes have flow meLer.
1he sysLem boundarles exclude Lhe nlLrogen Lanks and Lhe equlpmenL relaLed Lo purglng
excluslvely.
SysLem ModlflcaLlon lacLor" (a funcLlon ln LLAk sofLware) ls applled, whlch allows for plplng
Lo be excluded as separaLe process equlpmenL.
All componenLs are consldered Lo have LnC or nC presence aL all Llmes durlng Lhe acLlve
bunkerlng hours.
CaLegory calculaLlon basls ls seL Lo hole slze (noL release raLe). Leak wlll be calculaLed for
Lhree slzes: small, medlum and large (full bore rupLure). See Lable below
rocess Llme/acLlvlLy level ls seL Lo Lwo hours

no|e s|ze ranges M|n (mm) Max (mm)
Sma|| 0 3
Med|um 3 23
Large (I8k) 23 >23
Pole slzes and formaL ls based on lndusLry sLandard.
63


rocess equlpmenL Lypes are dlvlded lnLo Lwo caLegorles
1. ulameLer dependenL: process plpes, flanges, manual and acLuaLed valves
2. ulameLer lndependenL: all oLher equlpmenL e.g. pumps. lor Lhls caLegory Lhe leak slzes are
quoLed on an equlpmenL slze of 6 lnches. Allowed, as leak frequencles remaln Lhe same for
larger dlameLers.

D"!"<"#"! L.:) I.5)
A common aspecL of uncerLalnLy ln C8A ls assoclaLed wlLh Lhe frequency of lnLer-unlL plpellne
releases. AppllcaLlon of process plpework fallure daLa wlll Lend Lo glve overly conservaLlve values wlLh
respecL Lo longer lnLer-unlL plpe segmenLs. 1he hlsLorlcal daLa for process plplng from Lhe PC8u ls
Lherefore noL used for Lhls parL of Lhe assessmenL. lnsLead, Lhe normal pracLlce ls used, whlch ls Lo
apply a facLor of 23 Lo Lhe overall release frequency Lo accounL for process plplng conLrlbuLlon.
64


1here ls however evldence LhaL Lhe PC8u daLa glves much hlgher fallure frequencles Lhan whaL ls
expecLed based on hlsLorlcal evldence for LnC faclllLles. Clven Lhe percelved rlsks assoclaLed wlLh LnC
lL ls ofLen Lhe case LhaL fully welded plpellnes and connecLlons are employed. 1hls means LhaL ln a
&lu, all valves are noL necessarlly flanged.
63
8ased on Lhe flndlngs of Lhe sLaLlsLlcal analysls, Lhe
conLrlbuLlon from plplng ln Lhe LnC faclllLy ls reduced Lo 10 of LhaL of process plplng on a regular Cll
& Cas offshore plaLform. Cverall plplng conLrlbuLlon Lo Lhe release frequency ls Lhen 2.3. 1opslde
process equlpmenL conLrlbuLes Lo 97.3 of Lhe release frequency and ls noL Lhe same as lnLer-unlL
plpework. 1o accounL for Lopslde process equlpmenL, 100 ls dlvlded by 97.3. 1he overall facLor
applled Lo Lhe deLalled parL counL Lo lnclude Lhe plplng conLrlbuLlon ls 1.026 (l.e. Lhe lncrease ls
2.6).
66

38
D"!"<"#"< IP'Y S@)5A2.,/
1he PC8u daLa lncludes many leaks LhaL have occurred aL low sysLem pressures. LLAk sofLware ls
consequenLly seL Lo separaLe beLween dlfferenL Lypes of leak pressures. llgure 13 dlsplays Lhe leak
scenarlos, Lhelr raLlos and how Lhey relaLe.

I|gure 16: Lvent 1ree of Leak Scenar|os
67

LLAk funcLlons ls seL Lo calculaLe separaLe hole slze frequencles for Lhe Lree Lypes of leak scenarlos:
1oLal leak frequency (100)
lull pressure leak frequency (94): assume a leak Lrough Lhe deflned hole, beglnnlng aL Lhe
normal operaLlng pressure, unLll conLrolled by lsolaLlon and blow down, wlLh a probablllLy of
lsolaLlon/blow down fallure.
Zero pressure leak frequency (6): Lhls scenarlo lncludes all leaks where Lhe pressure lnslde
Lhe leaklng equlpmenL ls vlrLually zero (0.01bar(g) or less).
normally a quanLlLaLlve rlsk assessmenL wlll assume LhaL all leaks are full leaks because Lhese have
Lhe poLenLlal of developlng lnLo serlous evenLs endangerlng personnel and crlLlcal safeLy funcLlons.
68

Powever, ln Lhls sLudy, Lhe pressure ln Lhe sysLem ls seL Lo 10 bar(g), whlch ls qulLe hlgh. Zero
pressure leaks wlll Lherefore be lncluded as lL ls reasonable LhaL pressures can be lower Lhan 10bar(g).

1he LLAk sofLware ls presenLly noL capable of produclng resulLs for all Lhe dlfferenL leak pressures ln
one operaLlon. 1he LoLal leak frequencles produced wlll consequenLly have an error. AddlLlonally Lhe
resulLs wlll produce yearly averaged frequencles and noL Lhe per operaLlon frequencles whlch Lhls
sLudy requlres. CerLaln parLs of Lhe LLAk frequency analysls have consequenLly been done manually.
1. 8un leak wlLh normal operaLlng pressure Lo esLlmaLe full pressure leak frequencles.
lf llmlLed leak (31) or full leak (49) ls needed speclflcally Lhe values can be obLalned
from Laklng Lhe correcL raLlo from Lhe full pressure leaks.
2. Change pressure Lo 0.01 bar(g) for Lhe enLlre sysLem and re-run Lhe model, ln order Lo geL
Lhe leak frequency dlsLrlbuLlon for zero pressure leaks.
3. Add full pressure leak and zero pressure leak frequencles Lo yleld Lhe correcL LoLal leak
frequencles.
4. LLAk generaLes averaged yearly frequencles. 1here are 8760 hours ln a year and a bunkerlng
operaLlon Lakes Lwo hours. 1he frequencles are modlfled accordlngly.



1oLal Leak (100)
lull pressure leaks (94)
lull leak (49)
LlmlLed leak (31)
Zero pressure leaks (6)
39
4.2.3.1 rocess Lqu|pment Ia||ure Irequenc|es Cverv|ew
LLAk wlll produce large amounLs of daLa for Lhe dlfferenL seLLlngs, such as: leak scenarlos, hole slzes,
process secLlons, segmenLs and equlpmenL. ln Lhls sLudy, LoLal leaks (100) have been consldered. All
Lhree-hole slzes have been consldered ln order Lo ascerLaln compaLlblllLy wlLh ouLflow modellng ln
C8A. 1he relevanL frequencles, for Lhls sLudy, ln Lerms of process secLlons, are Lhe ones where Lhe
maln LnC llne ls spllL from Lhe vapor reLurn llne, and Lhe dlscharglng and Lhe recelvlng sldes are
separaLed from each oLher (see flgure 16 and 17). llgure 16 provldes Lhe lnlLlal resulLs from LLAk wlLh
full and zero pressure leaks. ln Lhe nexL flgure, Lhe LoLal leak has been calculaLed. llrsL column ls
calculaLed as yearly average, whlle Lhe second ls per operaLlon. 1he frequency cells marked wlLh blue
Lo Lhe far rlghL ln flgure 17, are Lhe frequencles used for consequence modellng.


I|gure 17: LLAk Ia||ure Irequenc|es for rocess Lqu|pment



I|gure 18: 1ota| LLAk Ia||ure Irequenc|es for rocess Lqu|pment
40
1he below Lable LLAk lrequency ulsLrlbuLlon by rocess SecLlon", lncludes lnformaLlon whlch wlll
noL dlrecLly be used ln consequence modellng. lL ls however added Lo demonsLraLe Lhe varlaLlon ln
fallure frequency dependlng on process secLlon, and how fallure wlll vary beLween dlfferenL hole slze
caLegorles. Small leaks have a much hlgher llkellhood of Laklng place Lhan large leaks.



4.3.4 1anks Ia||ure Irequenc|es
1he frequency for dlscharglng and recelvlng Lanks wlll be seL as Lhe colllslon frequency, because
rupLure ln Lhe Lank ls only dependenL on colllslons as a reallsLlc opLlon. 1he frequencles wlll Lherefore
be Lhe same as Lhe SlMCSs frequency for Lhe hose. 1he bunker barge Lank ls ln general more
exposed compared Lo recelvlng Lank LhaL ls usually lnLegraLed lnLo Lhe sLrucLure. lL ls assumed LhaL
colllslon only leads Lo Lank damages 3 of Lhe Llme for dlscharglng unlL, and 1 for Lhe recelvlng unlL.
1hese assumpLlons are also based on shlp slze and sLrucLure. 1he LnC Lanks are double hull, able Lo
wlLhsLand relaLlvely hlgh lmpacLs of ouLslde force before rupLure.

lor SlMCS Cffshore Lhe represenLaLlve frequency ls 2.30L-07, reduced wlLh facLor of 10 Lo be
conslsLenL wlLh bunkerlng Llme of Lwo hours and mulLlplled wlLh Lhe relevanL probablllLles of rupLure
due Lo colllslon.
ulscharglng (3): 1.13L-09
8ecelvlng (1): 2.30L-10
When Lanks rupLure Lhere are no meLhod for sLopplng Lhe leak, so ln Lhls scenarlo Lhe whole sLaLlc
lnvenLory wlll dlsperse and be losL. 1hls means LhaL Lhere ls no lsolaLlon Llme and no dynamlc
lnvenLory for Lhls rlsk scenarlo. 1he Lanks wlll be consldered full of LnC ln Lhe case of a rupLure.


41
4.2.2 Consequence Mode||ng
ln Lhls secLlon, ouLpuL ls generaLed whlch wlll provlde lnpuL for concludlng Lhe necessary range of
safeLy zones. 1hls secLlon wlll cover PAS1 and PAS18lsk lnpuL values (l.e. consLanL and varlable
parameLers), assumpLlons made and sofLware worklng procedure.

lnpuL daLa for PAS1 lncludes frequency and lnvenLory calculaLlon. lor calculaLlon purposes, Lhe daLa
wlll be added ln excel. 1he flle ls called 'Consequence Modellng CalculaLlons'. 1he flle ls lncorporaLed
and lLs conLenL lncludes:
lnu1S: consLanL parameLers, dlmenslons and weaLher daLa.
l8LCuLnClLS: frequencles for Lhe lnlLlal 13 LCC scenarlos before spllL lnLo Lhe sub scenarlos
of LSu and L8C fallures.
18AnSlL8 PCSL: Lwo Lables, Lhe flrsL Lable lncludes lnpuL daLa (frequencles, lsolaLlon Llme
and hole slze), and Lhe second Lable provldlng wlLh PAS1 ouLpuLs (release raLe and
duraLlon) and compleLe lnvenLory calculaLlons.
8CCLSS LCulMLn1: spllL beLween dlscharglng and recelvlng llne. lncludes Lhe same Lwo
Lables as for Lransfer hose.
1AnkS: equal lnformaLlon as for Lransfer hose.

4.2.2.1 Irequency L|m|t
unv lnLernal guldellnes for frequency calculaLlons (C16 LnC guldellnes) suggesL noL lncludlng
scenarlos wlLh frequencles lower Lhan 10
-8
. 1hls ls because Lhese scenarlos are Loo small Lo conLrlbuLe
Lo Lhe 10
-6
conLour.

All Lhe frequencles ldenLlfled on Lhe 'l8LCuLnClLS' page should be consldered buL when Lhey
undergo Lhe flnal sub scenarlo dlsLrlbuLlon of LSu and L8C fallure Lhe frequencles drop conslderably.
1he flnal scenarlo frequency consldered ln PAS1 and PAS18lsk modellng wlll be lncluded ln Lhe
Lables for '18AnSlL8 PCSL', '8CCLSS LCulMLn1' and '1AnkS' respecLlvely. Many of Lhese are well
below Lhe llmlL (l.e. Lank frequencles of 10
-11
and 10
-12
) and could Lherefore have been excluded.
Lxcluslon Lakes place ln modellng as Lhere ls addlLlonal work Lo addlng any rlsk scenarlo. All scenarlos,
regardless of low frequency, wlll be consldered ln Lhls sLudy Lo provlde resulLs for all process secLlons
of Lhe bunkerlng sysLem. A LoLal of 63 LCC scenarlos are assessed.
42



43


44
































43
46

47
48


49

30



31
4.2.2.2 Inventory
When lL comes Lo Lhe PAS1 lnpuLs, some values are ldenLlfled and oLhers, llke Lhe lnvenLory, need Lo
be calculaLed. 1he lnvenLory ls Lhe LoLal mass released [kg] ln Lhe evenL of any rlsk scenarlo. 1he
lnvenLory conslsLs of sLaLlc and dynamlc lnvenLory.
SLaLlc lnvenLory ls Lhe LnC/nC volume LhaL a speclflc process secLlon can hold. 1he volume
depends on Lhe dlmenslons of Lhe hose, plplng or Lank wlLhln Lhe deflned process secLlon.
uynamlc lnvenLory ls whaL can be released lf Lhe sysLem ls noL shuL down lmmedlaLely and
LnC/nC ls sLlll pushed" Lhrough Lhe sysLem. 1he volume slze of Lhe dynamlc lnvenLory also
depends on dlmenslons, buL lL addlLlonally depend on pump raLe, pressure, Llme Lo sLop
(lsolaLlon Llme) eLc.
lor smaller leaks, Lhe lnvenLory ls llmlLed by Lhe release raLe durlng Lhe Llme before LSu plus Lhe
conLenL of Lhe hose. lor larger leaks, wlLh a release raLe hlgher Lhan Lhe pump flow, Lhe lnvenLory ls
assumed Lo be equal Lo 120 of Lhe pump flow (see dlscharge raLe below) mulLlplled by Lhe Llme Lo
LSu plus Lhe hose conLenL.

D"!"!"!"# V51)5*,23 BA9@89A*.,5/

Stat|c Inventory (SI)
!" !!"! ! !"#$%& !
!
! !"#$%&' !"!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! ! !
Dynam|c Inventory (DI)

!" !" ! !"#"$%" !"#$ !"!! ! !"#$%&'#( !"#$ ! ! !! ! !"
1ota| |nventory (1I)
!" !" ! !" !" ! !" !"

8elease raLe (88) ls a PAS1 ouLpuL. 1hls means LhaL ul and 1l wlll noL be fully calculaLed unLll Lhe
model has had a run Lhrough wlLh Sl daLa. 88 ls dependenL on Lhe hole slze for damaged/rupLured
scenarlos, and ls dependenL on pump raLe Llmes Lhe dlscharge raLe for Lhe leak ln full bore rupLure
(l88) scenarlo.

4.2.2.3 D|scharge kate
1he pump dlscharge raLe should be seL beLween 120-130 of Lhe nomlnal pump flow, Lo accounL for
Lhe sudden pressure loss downsLream and Lhe subsequenL reacLlon of a cenLrlfugal pump upsLream
of Lhe rupLure. 1he lower value can be used lf Lhere ls a slngle hose and Lhe loadlng llne ls shorL and
across level ground. 1he laLLer value ls used, lf Lhere are several loadlng arms, Lhe loadlng llne ls long
and Lhe Lanks are elevaLed. ln Lhls base case, Lhere ls one hose and relaLlvely shorL loadlng llnes, and
only a sllghL elevaLlon ln Lhe process sysLem. 1he mosL reallsLlc and reasonable assumpLlon ls
Lherefore esLlmaLed Lo be 120.
32
4.2.2.4 Assumpt|ons for nAS1 Mode||ng
arameLers noL menLloned are seL aL defaulL value by Lhe sofLware, as used by unv
8elease Lype: consLanL raLe
8elease dlrecLlon: horlzonLal
ulsperslons parameLer: splll wlll Lake place on waLer as surface
ool vaporlzaLlon: bund surface ls waLer
8elease helghL: 1m above ground
CalculaLlon parameLers: flash flre vulnerablllLy ls seL Lo 1, all oLher seL Lo 0 (l.e.
[eL/pool/flre/exploslon)
ulsperslon helghL measured as 0.3m form Lhe ground (see secLlon 4.3.1: PAS1 resulLs)

4.2.2.S kaster Image - S1S 8unker Conf|gurat|on
1he bunker arrangemenL and slze LhaL wlll be used for Lhe rasLer lmage" ln PAS1 wlll be based on
Lhe lmage provlded ln chapLer 3, flgure 6. asslng vessels and oLher vulnerable ob[ecL wlll noL be
lncluded ln Lhe lmage as Lhese are slLe-speclflc deLalls. 1he scope of Lhls reporL has been Lo evaluaLe a
generlc LnC bunkerlng arrangemenL, and noL Lo look aL slLe-speclflc lssues. AddlLlonally, Lhe maln
ob[ecLlve ls Lo evaluaLe Lhe rlsks for passengers onboard durlng bunkerlng. 1hls means LhaL Lhe
relevanL consequence conLours for Lhls reporL, relaLe Lo how much of Lhe LnC fueled vessel (recelvlng
unlL) ls wlLhln Lhe varlous rlsk crlLerla's (l.e. 10
-6
per bunkerlng operaLlon), and noL surroundlng
elemenLs.

4.2.2.6 Assumpt|ons for nAS1k|sk Mode||ng
Wlnd rose ls seL Lo have equal dlsLrlbuLlon of wlnds ln all dlrecLlons.
1he sofLware dlfferenLlaLes beLween day and nlghL Llme operaLlons, buL for Lhls sLudy we wlll
noL dlfferenLlaLe beLween Lhe Lwo.
1he dlsperslons are measured aL 0.3m helghL from Lhe ground.
LxporLed (ouLpuL) daLa conslders: flammable dlsperslon, for LlL facLlon, aL 0.3m effecL helghL
and aL maxlmum concenLraLlon.
Modellng: 1o calculaLe Lhe requlred ouLcome correcLly, Lhe flash flre vulnerablllLy should be
seL Lo 1, and all oLher vulnerablllLles Lo flammable effecLs should be seL Lo 0 ([eL/pool flre/
exploslons eLc.) 1he evenL Lree ls modlfled ln such a way LhaL delayed lgnlLlons wlll only
resulL ln flash flres and noL exploslons.
lgnlLlon mode ls seL Lo defaulL.
lgnlLlon probablllLy ls seL Lo 100. 1hls means LhaL Lhere wlll always be flre when Lhere ls a
leak (hlghly conservaLlve).

33
4.2.2.7 nAS1 Work|ng rocedure
1. 8ulld Lhe sysLem Lree accordlng Lo Lhe scenarlos deflned ln Lhe excel sheeLs
a. lolder for each process secLlon and Lhe evenL group scenarlos
b. 8oLLom evenLs added as vessel or plpe source"
2. Add Lhe daLa for each source
a. MaLerlal lnpuLs: subsLance Lype (meLhane), Lemp value, pressure value and a
Lemporary lnpuL for lnvenLory (Lhe correcL values wlll be provlded afLer Lhe flrsL
slmulaLlon)
b. Scenarlo lnpuLs: leak Lype, ouLdoor (ln or ouL), phase ls auLomaLlcally generaLes
based on Lemp an pressure, hole dlameLers (S, M, L)
c. LocaLlon lnpuLs: seL elevaLlon helghL
3. 8un Lhe model
4. Access Lhe resulLs and gaLher release raLes for all hole slzes, Lhe LnC and vapor reLurn llne
(LoLal of slx release raLes)
a. Maxlmum release raLe for large leaks needs Lo be modlfled Lo whaL ls acLually
posslble based on Lhe lnvenLory and dlscharge calculaLlons, lnlLlal resulL from PAS1
ls noL correcL
b. 8ased on Lhls lnformaLlon Lhe lnvenLory calculaLlons can be compleLed
3. Add compleLed lnvenLory calculaLlons resulLs and correcL release raLes Lo Lhe PAS1
sofLware
6. 8e-run Lhe model Lo produce correcL dlsperslon values
a. Maxlmum dlsperslon values for Lhe maln LnC llne for 1/2 LlL aL 0.3m reglsLraLlon
helghL can be seen ln Appendlx C

4.2.2.8 nAS1k|sk Work|ng rocedure
1. 1he sysLem Lree now needs Lo be converLed Lo PAS18lsk
a. Make sure Lhe daLa ls Lransferred properly
b. Add Lhe respecLlve frequencles Lo each scenarlo (parL of Lhe sysLem Lree lnpuLs)
2. Addlng Lhe lmage of Lhe bunkerlng layouL
a. SeL Lhe scales, dlmenslons and orlgln (also known as fallure polnLs, doLs on Lhe
rasLer lmage). 1hls ls where Lhe process secLlon fallure case scenarlos are rooLed
b. 8eglsLer Lhe coordlnaLes for Lhe dlfferenL process secLlons: hose, dlscharglng llne,
recelvlng llne and Lanks.
3. Add weaLher lnformaLlon accordlng Lo speclflcaLlon. WeaLher was dlscussed ln secLlon 3.6.
4. uaLa/parameLer changes
a. Add meLrologlcal daLa (wlnd rose)
b. SeL Lo flash flre
c. uay/nlghL Llme dlsLrlbuLlons
3. 8un model Lo obLaln conLours
34
4.3 k|sk Lva|uat|on
4.3.1 nAS1 kesu|ts
PAS1 produce resulLs for maxlmum dlsperslon dlsLances for all LCC scenarlos. 1he resulLs below are
summarlzed dlsLances for x LlL measured aL 0.3m above ground for Lhe maln LnC llne. CompleLe llsL
of dlsLances can be seen ln Appendlx P.

x LIL resu|ts Max D|stance [m]

Average D|stance [m]
1ransfer nose 463 192
rocess Lqu|pment 463 133
1anks 1193 664

As deflned ln Lhe assumpLlons, leak ls seL Lo Lake place 1m above ground LhroughouL Lhe bunkerlng
sysLem. ulsperslon dlsLances are measured aL 0.3m above ground, as Lhls ls Lhe helghL, whlch gave
Lhe largesL dlsperslon lengLhs, compared Lo ground level and 1m measuremenLs. lor small leaks, 1m
above ground, LnC would evaporaLe due Lo heaL Lransfer wlLh alr before lL reached Lhe ground, buL lL
would noL necessarlly remaln aL a helghL of 1m elLher, as an lnlLlal drop due Lo gravlLaLlonal effecLs
wlll be experlenced before evaporaLlon Lakes place.
4.3.1.1 Vapor keturn L|ne
vapor reLurn llne only accounL for 10 of Lhe released amounLs ln Lhe LnC llne ln Lhe same process
secLlon. 1he vapor reLurn llne has noL been assessed ln Lerms of lLs dlsperslon effecLs, and lL could
have been excluded from Lhe sLudy as a whole. lL ls however lncluded ln Lhe overall rlsk plcLure, buL
noL ln Lerms of dlsperslon effecLs. 1he longesL dlsperslon dlsLance recorded for vapor reLurn llne was
32m.

4.3.1.2 LNG L|ne
D"<"#"!"# E2A5/4)2 Z,/)
1he maln facLor affecLlng dlsperslon ls Lhe slze of Lhe hole ln Lhe hose. 1he Lable below provldes
mlnlmum and maxlmum dlsperslon dlsLances for each slze of hole. lurLher dlscusslons on dlsperslon
dlsLances wlll be based on dlsperslon versus hole slze dlsLrlbuLlon. lacLors LhaL wlll be dlscussed
lnclude:
Wlnd speed 2m/s or 3m/s
asqull sLablllLy: A (unsLable), C (moderaLe) and L (sLable)
lsolaLlon Llmes: LSu works (fasL), LSu falls wlLh operaLor lnLervenLlon (moderaLe) and LSu
and operaLor fallure (slow)
A hypoLhesls for gas dlsperslon ls LhaL for small leaks LurbulenL wlnds and hlgh veloclLles, lL can be
beneflclal Lo ellmlnaLe" Lhe gas cloud qulckly. 1hen for larger leaks (l88) Lhe amounLs could be so
large and Lhe denslLy very hlgh, such LhaL wlnds only maxlmlzes Lhe dlsperslon dlsLance. Wlnd wlll mlx
alr and gas. WheLher Lhe mlxLure reaches LlL depends on Lhe amounL of gas released, Lhe wlnd and
Lhe wlnd mlxlng acLlon. lsolaLlon Llme (l.e. release duraLlon) ls a key facLor for release dlsLances: Lhe
longer Lhe release Lhe larger Lhe volume released.


33



no|e s|ze d|str|but|on M|n D|stance [m]

Max D|stance [m]
Sma|| 17 31
Med|um 100 138
Large (I8k) 229 463

1he small hole slze has a low release raLe of 0.34m
3
/s LnC aL polnL of release. under Lhese condlLlons
evaporaLed LnC (l.e. nC) wlll dlluLe qulckly Lo below LlL levels due Lo dlsperslon effecLs. WeaLher
Lype 3A resulL ln Lhe smallesL dlsperslon dlsLance. 1hls ls Lhe hlghesL wlnd speed and Lurbulence
facLor comblned. 1he followlng dlsLances from low Lo hlgh are: 3C, 3L, 2A, 2C and 2L. 1hls means LhaL
hlgh wlnd speed and unsLable condlLlons ls Lhe mosL effecLlve ln dlluLlng Lhe LnC concenLraLlons for
small slzes and LhaL wlnd speed ls Lhe mosL lmporLanL facLor Lo sLablllLy. ln Lerms of Lhe fallure
modes, whlch provlde dlfferenL lsolaLlon Llmes, Lhls ls lrrelevanL Lo Lhe dlsperslon dlsLance for small
hole slze.

Medlum hole slze has a release raLe of 8.38m
3
/s. 1he dlsperslon resulLs for Lhls hole slze has less
Lendencles Lhan for small. When wlnd speed ls aL 3m/s, 3A ls sLlll Lhe weaLher facLor wlLh Lhe smallesL
dlsLances, buL ln Lhls case lL ls followed by 3L flrsL and Lhen 3C. 1hls means LhaL for Lhese release
amounLs, unsLable condlLlons are noL havlng Lhe same dlluLlon effecL. 1he reason LhaL Lhe same
dlluLlon effecLs are noL experlenced, ls posslbly because Lhe concenLraLlons are Loo hlgh Lo be dlluLed
effecLlvely, and LhaL lnsLablllLy makes Lhe dlspersed area larger. lor a wlnd speed of 2m/s, Lhere are
even less clear Lrends Lo whaL generaLes Lhe long dlsperslon dlsLances. 1he lsolaLlon Llme seem Lo
have some lnfluence on Lhe resulLs. LSu works" provlde beLLer resulLs Lhan Lhe Lwo oLher fallure
modes, buL Lhere ls noL much dlfference beLween operaLor lnLervenLlon" and compleLe fallure"
modes. ln Lerms of wlnd sLablllLy, lL ls mlxed, buL sLablllLy facLor A ls overall provldlng shorL dlsLances
Lhan C.

Large hole slze has a conslderably large release raLe of 73m
3
/s. 1hls makes Lhe resulLs even more
scaLLered dependlng on Lhe varlous facLors affecLlng dlsperslon. lsolaLlon Llme ls lncreaslngly relevanL
and fasL lsolaLlon response Llme produce Lhe lower half of Lhe dlsperslon resulLs. When lL comes Lo
weaLher parameLers Lhere ls no clear Lrends. 1he smallesL dlsLance ls now 2A wlLh LSu works" fallure
mode. 1he largesL dlsLance ls 2C wlLh LSu fallure and operaLor lnLervenLlon. CperaLor lnLervenLlon
does noL glve Lhe longesL lsolaLlon Llme. AL flrsL glance lL ls counLer lnLulLlve how Lhls can be Lhe
hlghesL when LSu and operaLor fallure ls much longer. 1o undersLand Lhls resulL, Lhe wldLh of Lhe
spread also has Lo be consldered. lor moderaLe lsolaLlon Llme Lhe dlsLance ls longer buL narrower, for
slow lsolaLlon Llme lL ls wlder. WldLh ls less of an lssue ln Lerms of dlsperslon and for deflnlng zones,
as Lhe dlsLances measured are consldered as a radlus and noL as a dlsLance ln a speclflc dlrecLlon.
Large hole slze glve Lhe same resulLs for boLh rupLure and dlsconnecLlon.

36
D"<"#"!"! L2,@)// P?8.:7)5*
rocess equlpmenL has Lhe same hole slzes and release raLes. AlLhough Lhere are more modeled
scenarlos for process equlpmenL, dlscharglng and recelvlng sldes are equal and Lhey boLh reflecL Lhe
modeled scenarlos for Lransfer hose rupLure. 1hls means LhaL all hole slze dlsLrlbuLlons are Lhe same
and ls why Lhe maxlmum release ls Lhe same ln boLh cases as lndlcaLed ln Lhe flrsL Lable ln Lhls
secLlon. 1he only reason why Lransfer hose has a hlgher average ls because lL lnvolves more large leak
scenarlos, as lL conslders dlsconnecLlon fallures Loo.

1he dlsperslon resulLs colnclde wlLh parLs of Lhe hypoLhesls. lsolaLlon Llme ls relevanL buL only for
larger hole slzes. WeaLher lnduced Lurbulence was lmporLanL ln dlsperslon of smaller leaks, buL
provlded varylng resulLs for larger leaks.

D"<"#"!"< EA50/
1anks are noL consldered for lsolaLlon Llmes buL dlscussed ln Lerms of weaLher parameLers. Sequence
of dlsperslon lengLhs (low Lo hlgh): 3A, 2A, 3C, 2C, 3L and 2L. 1he dlsperslon dlsLances are sysLemaLlc
wlLh changes ln weaLher. 1he released volume ls Lhe same ln all scenarlos, maklng weaLher Lhe
senslLlvlLy Lo conslder. unsLable weaLher and hlgh wlnd speeds provlde Lhe shorLesL dlsperslon lengLh
of 266m. 1hls means LhaL LurbulenL weaLhers ls more beneflclal ln a large release scenarlo, as lL
dlluLes LnC wlLh alr qulcker Lo a concenLraLlons below 2.3 meLhane (xLlL).


4.3.1.3 Secur|ty 2ones
As dlscussed ln secLlon 3.3: nauLlcal AcLlvlLy, securlLy zone can be esLabllshed based on Lhe dlsperslon
resulLs. When assesslng Lhe sysLem for dlsperslon resulLs vapor llne ls excluded as lL produces only a
small fracLlon of Lhe maln LnC llne dlsperslon ranges. AddlLlonally, Lank rupLure ls consldered very
unllkely and safeLy zones have noL been based on Lank rupLure up Lo now. rocess equlpmenL and
Lransfer hose have equal maxlmum dlsperslon resulLs. 1helr averages dlfferenLlaLe, as Lransfer hose
fallures lnclude addlLlonal cases of large leak fallure scenarlos Lhrough lLs dlsconnecLlon fallures. 1he
average ls mosL Lelllng for Lhe Lyplcal slLuaLlons raLher Lhan conslderlng Lhe maxlmum, as lL
represenLs an exLreme case wlLh dlsperslon lengLhs more Lhan Lwlce Lhe average. All scenarlos have
low llkellhood of Laklng place and especlally Lhe large releases, whlch conLrlbuLe Lo Lhe longesL
dlsperslon dlsLances.

ln Lhe porL of 8oLLerdam S1S, safeLy dlsLances for passlng shlps (securlLy zones) were calculaLed based
on LlL dlsperslon dlsLances (noL xLlL). 1he S1S case sLudled ln Lhls reporL had Lwo bunker hoses and
Lhe leak scenarlo consldered was slmulLaneous dlsconnecLlon of boLh hoses. 1he sLudy concluded
wlLh assumlng 233m safeLy dlsLance. 1he S1S base case for Lhls sLudy has only one Lransfer hose, wlLh
Lhls ln mlnd Lhe average dlsperslon dlsLance resulLs for Lransfers hose leakage would be a good
securlLy zone esLlmaLe. A deflnlLe securlLy zone wlll noL be expressed ln Lhls secLlon as lL would ln
elLher case requlre more locaLlon speclflc lnformaLlon, buL hopefully Lhls glves an undersLandlng of
Lhe meLhod and process.

37
4.3.1.4 LIL kesu|ts
lSC Culdellnes for LnC bunkerlng requlres LhaL x LlL ls used for rlsk assessmenL. SLlll, LlL resulLs are
enclosed Lo demonsLraLe Lhe dlfference beLween conslderlng LlL, whlch ls Lhe acLual rlsk level,
compared Lo xLlL, whlch ls conservaLlve.

LIL resu|ts Max D|stance [m]

Average D|stance [m]
1ransfer nose 360 148
rocess Lqu|pment 360 79
1anks 630 406

1he resulLs for LlL are conslderably reduced and lllusLraLe Lhe conservaLlve naLure of conslderlng
xLlL Lo LlL. 1he below Lable show Lhe percenLage reducLlon.
xLIL vs. LIL resu|ts Max D|stance [m]

Average D|stance [m]
1ransfer nose -23 -23
rocess Lqu|pment -23 -48
1anks -47 -39
38
4.3.2 nAS1k|sk kesu|ts
PAS18lsk produce conLour resulLs Lhrough aggregaLlon of rlsk (l.e. Lhe flammable effecLs) on grld
cells. 1he sofLware produces xLlL dlsLances (and LlL), excluslvely based on leak Laklng place.

PAS1 produced long dlsperslon dlsLances. 1hese resulLs modeled wlLh worsL case scenarlos would be
consldered ln a deLermlnlsLlc approach for safeLy zones. ln a probablllsLlc approach Lhey are only
consldered for securlLy zone purposes. ulsperslon dlsLances could provlde severe consequences, buL
comblned wlLh Lhe frequency, Lhe rlsk ls slgnlflcanLly reduced. PAS18lsk provldes a compleLe rlsk
plcLure overvlew by belng able Lo comblne frequency wlLh consequences.

1he daLa has been added and rlsk levels have been seL Lo provlde conLours. ConLours wlll be seL from
10
-3
Lo 10
-11
, dependlng on relevance and conLours provlded. 8lsk conLour resulLs wlll be consldered
for nauLlcal acLlvlLy levels, LlL level, and process secLlon.

4.3.2.1 1ota| Contour kesu|ts for xLIL
1he flgure below lncludes Lhe LoLal resulLs for xLlL, produced by all Lhe lnpuL parameLers dlscussed ln
Lhls sLudy.


I|gure 19: 1ota| xLIL resu|ts
1he lmmedlaLe polnL of lnLeresL ls LhaL conLour 10
-8
(yellow llne) obLalns a slmllar shape Lo Lhe safeLy
zone boundarles used Loday of '23m dlsLances from process equlpmenL'. Powever, as ls evldenL,
Lhere ls no 10
-6
conLour Lo be dlscussed. 1he 10
-7
conLour (blue llne) ls excluslvely wlLhln Lhe
bunkerlng process secLlon on Lhe recelvlng unlL (ferry). 1he bunker barge wlll only have flrsL parLy
personnel lnvolvemenL (operaLors). 1he waLer area wlLhln Lhe conLour should under no clrcumsLances
be occupled whlle bunkerlng ls Laklng place, as advlsed and regulaLed by guldellnes and sLandards for
bunkerlng.





39
4.3.2.2 Increased Naut|ca| Act|v|ty Contour kesu|ts
1he Lrafflc level ls sald Lo have greaL lnfluence on rlsk levels. lor process equlpmenL, calculaLed ln
LLAk, varylng speclflc Lypes of lnlLlal fallures ls noL posslble as LLAk produces LoLal fallure frequency
for a process componenL. ln Lhe frequency analysls, nauLlcal acLlvlLy ls descrlbed as Lhe SlMCS
Cffshore fallure frequency, and lL ls used for hose fallure frequency and Lanks. 1he lnlLlal SlMCS
Cffshore frequency consldered was 2.30L-08. 1hls ls Lhe frequency provlded by ACuS daLa and
Lherefore Lhe only frequency used Loday lf slLe-speclflc lnformaLlon ls noL consldered ln deLall. lor
Lanks, Lhe frequency accounLed for was even lower conslderlng Lhe llkellhood LhaL a colllslon would
lead Lo addlLlonal fallures.

1he SlMCS Cffshore fallure frequency for Lhe Lransfer hose can be alLered Lo be more slgnlflcanL by
mulLlplylng Lhe frequency by a facLor of 100 (100 Llmes as many colllslons wlll occur per operaLlon
Lhan whaL ls currenLly assumed). 1he resulLlng frequency was 2.30L-06. lnLroduclng Lhls as parL of Lhe
hose fallure frequency produced Lhe followlng conLour resulLs.


I|gure 20: Increased naut|ca| act|v|ty for xLIL contour resu|ts
Cverall Lhe dlfferences beLween Lhe Lwo levels of nauLlcal acLlvlLy produced small dlfferences Lo Lhe
conLours and elLher way Lhe levels are well wlLhln Lhe llmlLs of 10
-6
per bunkerlng operaLlon.





60
4.3.2.3 LIL Contour kesu|ts
AlLhough xLlL ls consldered Lhe correcL level for evaluaLlng degree of dlsperslon, LlL was also LesLed
for low nauLlcal acLlvlLy. llgure 20 shows Lhe resulLs obLalned. As expecLed, Lhe conLour ranges are
sllghLly reduced, and Lhe 10
-8
conLour ls now well wlLhln Lhe 23m zone of Lhe crlLlcal process
equlpmenL (l.e. where Lhe Lransfer hose and mosL of Lhe process plplng ls slLuaLed).


I|gure 21: LIL contour resu|ts

4.3.2.4 rocess Sect|on Contour kesu|ts
1he followlng lmages provlde conLour resulLs for leak from one process secLlon aL Lhe Llme. 1hey are
all based on Lhe parameLers deflned (l.e. regular nauLlcal acLlvlLy and xLlL).
D"<"!"D"# E2A5/4)2 Z,/)

I|gure 22: 1ransfer nose contour resu|ts
1he lndusLry has ofLen expressed Lhe hose as Lhe mosL hazardous process secLlon of Lhe LnC process
sysLem. 1hls bellef seems Lo agree wlLh Lhe resulLs (see flgure 21). Lucklly Lhe lndusLry has made
aLLempLs Lowards hose lmprovemenLs, and from recenL LesLs lL ls proved LhaL Lhe crlLlcal process
equlpmenL relaLed Lo Lhe bunkerlng process secLlon on elLher slde, wlll experlences problems well
before any hose damage or rupLure.
61

lL should be kepL ln mlnd LhaL Lhe hose ls Lhe only equlpmenL analyzed wlLh dlfferenL Lools and
calculaLlons Lhan Lhe resL of Lhe process equlpmenL. lL could hence be argued LhaL Lhe analysls has
been overly conservaLlve. As Lhls ls Lhe process secLlon of Lhe analysls, wlLh Lhe greaLesL amounLs of
assumpLlons requlred, lL proves LhaL Lhe sLudy has noL undermlned Lhe effecLs of Lhe hose (whlch was
Lhe alm, Lo be reallsLlc buL conservaLlve).

D"<"!"D"! L2,@)// P?8.:7)5*

I|gure 23: rocess equ|pment contour resu|ts
D"<"!"D"< EA50/
lor Lhe Lanks, Lhe rlsk level had Lo be seL Lo 10
-11
as no oLher rlsk level would glve conLour resulLs.
Accordlng Lo C8A meLhods, low frequencles (<10
-8
) could have been excluded from consequence
modellng. lf Lhey had been excluded, Lanks would noL have provlded any conLour resulLs.


I|gure 24: 1ank contour resu|ts

62
4.3.3 1echno|ogy Advancements
SysLem speclflcs ln Lhls sLudy have been conservaLlve and especlally when conslderlng LhaL Lechnlcal
advancemenLs wlll Lake place ln Lhe fuLure. lrequencles used Loday are based on hlsLorlcal daLa,
whlch of course also reflecLs fallures ln earller verslons of Lhe equlpmenL.

Several sLudles characLerlze Lhe hose or loadlng arm as Lhe crlLlcal process secLlon ln bunkerlng
processes. naLurally, as lL ls Lhe lnLerface beLween Lhe Lwo unlLs and lL ls very exposed compared Lo
Lhe resL of Lhe process equlpmenL. 1he percelved fears for Lhe bunker hose has caused Lhe lndusLry Lo
focus Lhelr efforLs on maklng Lhe mosL endurable hoses wlLh speclflc quallLles such as sLrengLh and
flexlblllLy, and Lhe ablllLy Lo wlLhsLand cryogenlc LemperaLures. 1he sLrucLure, maLerlal and deslgn
chosen are Loday so advanced LhaL Lhe lndusLry conslders Lhe hoses exLremely rellable.

Cne of Lhe maln sLrengLhs of Lhe hose ls L8C (breakaway coupllng). L8C ls so effecLlve, and Lhe hose
sLrucLure ls so much sLronger, Lo Lhe exLenL LhaL any Lenslon wlll resulL ln L8C acLlvaLlon raLher Lhan
rupLure. L8C would have Lo fall, whlch ls acLually yeL Lo be seen. A Lrlggered L8C ln any evenL ls a
safe" reacLlon.

1o demonsLraLe Lhe hlgh level of securlLy of a cryogenlc Lransfer hose, Casnor reporLs on slLe
experlences uslng cryogenlc Lransfer hoses has been lncluded.
4.3.3.1 Gasnor Lxper|ences
nose fa||ure |n f|ex|b|e |oad|ng and un|oad|ng hoses
69

ln Lhe perlod from May 2003 Lo uecember 2010, approxlmaLely 42,000 loadlng, unloadlng and
bunkerlng operaLlons have been carrled ouL wlLhouL deLecLlon or lndlcaLlon of any hose fallures.
Pose rupLure ls ofLen Lhe dlmenslonlng case when accounLlng for rlsk assessmenLs relaLed Lo Lhe
locaLlon of LnC Lermlnals and ln relaLlon Lo llcenses Lo carry ouL loadlng and unloadlng operaLlons
wlLh LnC.

Cn Lhe basls of Lhls Casnor AS has compleLed a revlew of Lhese Lypes of operaLlons. Some of Lhe
resulLs are presenLed here:
no hose fallure recorded
no drlp leaks deLecLed
Mlnor gas leaks / "sweaLlng" from snake recorded. (1oLal flve cases, malnly beLween onshore
faclllLles and vessels).
Leaks from Lhe coupllngs are reglsLered:
o roducLlon Lrror: spray leak from Lhe hole ln Lhe coupllng
o urlp leakage due Lo conLracLlon when coollng Lakes place. 8y reLlghLen Lhe
connecLlon Lhe leak sLopped.
o Leakage ln Lhe breakaway coupllng (Lwlce).
CperaLlon and malnLenance programmes lncludes dally lnspecLlons of Lhe hose and Lransmlsslon
preparaLlons (purglng and lnerLlng). ln Lhe sLudy perlod, Casnor has replaced approxlmaLely 20 hoses
due Lo sweaLLlng. AddlLlonaly some hoses have been replaced due Lo vlsual wear and Lear, wlLhouL
any lndlcaLlon of leak.

1he reporL concluded wlLh, revlew shows Lhere ls noL reglsLered any hose fallure due Lo normal
operaLlon. nor revealed slLuaLlons where a hose rupLure have been lmmlnenL. lnspecLlon,
malnLenance and cholce of hlgh quallLy hoses wlll conLlnue Lo be lmporLanL Lo prevenL hose fallure ln
Lhe fuLure."
63
S Conc|us|on
1he envlronmenLal and economlcal advanLages of uslng LnC as a marlne fuel are already recognlzed.
1he lndusLry has responded and are now preparlng for fuel converslon, wlLh Lhe ferry markeL as Lhe
blggesL consumer. Plgh rlsks are assumed when lL comes Lo vulnerable ob[ecLs (Lhlrd parLles ln Lhe
vlclnlLy of Lhe operaLlon) durlng bunkerlng. lerrles have Lhus far been lnsLrucLed noL Lo allow
passenger presence durlng bunkerlng. 1he funcLlonallLy and sLrengLhs of LnC are qulckly reduced and
Lhls resLrlcLlon ln parLlcular ls provlng problemaLlc for ferry companles, whlch have passengers
onboard aL all Llmes.

ln response Lo Lhe percelved rlsks assoclaLed wlLh LnC bunkerlng operaLlons, Lhls sLudy has focused
on ouLllnlng Lhe rlsks, and quanLlfylng Lhem Lo provlde a deLalled rlsk plcLure. 1he purpose of Lhls
sLudy was Lo creaLe probablllsLlc safeLy dlsLances for LnC bunkerlng. 1he [usLlflcaLlon ln dolng Lhls
was Lo evaluaLe Lhe level of safeLy for passengers onboard LnC fueled vessels durlng bunkerlng. 1he
evaluaLlon has been based on achlevlng Lhe accepLed lSC sLandard requlremenL of a probablllLy of
flammable gas ouLslde Lhe safeLy zone belng less Lhan 10
-6
per bunkerlng operaLlon as a crlLerlon.

8ased on Lhe resulLs provlded by PAS18lsk ln secLlon 4.3: 8lsk LvaluaLlon, lL clearly demonsLraLes
LhaL passenger safeLy can be malnLalned durlng bunkerlng operaLlons. 1he resulLs of Lhls sLudy
conclude LhaL Lhere ls no unreasonable rlsk assoclaLed wlLh allowlng passenger presence durlng
bunkerlng. assenger safeLy lssues should as such noL llmlL Lhe appllcaLlon of LnC as fuel for ferrles.
1he areas onboard wlLhed vessels are aL Lhe mosL lnslde a 10
-8
rlsk level. 1hls ls Lhe lowesL level of rlsk
consldered by any lndusLry. 1he only expense and concern of Lhe lndusLry aL Lhls momenL should
consequenLly be on economlcally esLabllshlng susLalnable lnfrasLrucLure for small-scale bunkerlng.

1he assessmenL made here ls generlc, and even Lhough lL could be ad[usLed for lndlvldual bunkerlng
cases, lL ls noL expecLed LhaL slgnlflcanL varlaLlons ln rlsk conLours wlll be experlenced from Lyplcal
sysLem varlaLlons Lo Lhls base case. 1he varlaLlons ln resulLs have more scope for slLe-speclflc lssues
llke weaLher and Lrafflc denslLy ln Lhe porL area. WeaLher cannoL be conLrolled, buL should be
evaluaLed before chooslng a speclflc bunkerlng locaLlon. 8ased on Lhe PAS1 dlsperslon resulLs,
unsLable weaLher and hlgh wlnds resulLed ln shorLer dlsLances for all hole slzes. 1he remalnlng
elemenL lefL Lo conslder ls nauLlcal acLlvlLy and Lhe SlMCS fallures hlgh acLlvlLy lnLroduce. 1here are
several zones LhaL can be esLabllshed Lo conLrol Lhe rlsk of Lhls caLegory, whlch means LhaL lf
excluslon zones or securlLy zones are properly deflned Lhen safeLy zones for passengers wlll noL be an
lssue.
64
6 1reatment of kes|dua| k|sk
lor sLudles of rlsk Lhere ls large number of senslLlvlLles LhaL can be analyzed, and furLher sLudles
should be made. 1hls sLudy has focused on Lhe senslLlvlLles, whlch are belleved Lo have a slgnlflcanL
effecL wlLh respecL Lo calculaLlons of Lhe safeLy zone. 1hls lncludes weaLher senslLlvlLles, hole slze
dlsLrlbuLlons and some varlaLlons ln Lhe SlMCS Cffshore frequency Lo accounL for varylng nauLlcal
acLlvlLy.

As dlscussed, rlsks assoclaLed wlLh LnC bunkerlng can be dlvlded lnLo rlsks lnherenL Lo Lhe process
equlpmenL (sysLem speclflc) and rlsks speclflc Lo Lhe bunkerlng locaLlon (slLe-speclflc). 1he slLe-
speclflc senslLlvlLles can have an affecL on Lhe rlsk level prlor, such as porL Lrafflc and some have an
effecL when an accldenL lnvolvlng a leak has Laken place, llke weaLher. WeaLher senslLlvlLles are
consldered ln Lhe sLudy and Lo some exLenL porL Lrafflc, buL any safeLy zone lmplemenLed needs Lo be
carefully evaluaLed agalnsL speclflc slLe deLalls.

LnC bunkerlng sysLems can have some varlaLlons ln deslgn, buL Lhe baslc prlnclples wlll for pracLlcal
purposes be Lhe same. Several of Lhe process parameLers and funcLlons are seL by Lhe physlcs of LnC
and Lhe guldellnes and sLandards. 1he sysLem speclflc soluLlons LhaL were noL analyzed for senslLlvlLy
ln Lhls sLudy were seL Lo be Lhe mosL conservaLlve Lo avold underesLlmaLlng Lhe rlsk. ln Lhls sLudy a
slngle loadlng hose was assumed, lnsLead of Lwo or Lhree LhaL could be used ln shore Lo shlp
appllcaLlons. 1he reason for Lhls ls LhaL one loadlng hose ls more relevanL for Lhe cosLal appllcaLlons
LhaL have been Lhe maln focus of Lhls sLudy. 8egulaLory requlremenLs llmlL exLenslve sysLem
varlaLlons, and seL a number of sLandard LhaL musL be meL even before Lhe securlLy zone comes lnLo
quesLlon. lf regulaLory requlremenLs are followed Lhls would mean LhaL rlsk conLours would noL be
larger Lhan Lhe presenLed even lf Lhere were changes Lo Lhe sysLem or operaLlng parameLers.
lollowlng, ls a dlscusslon on senslLlvlLles LhaL could be consldered ln fuLure rlsk assessmenLs for LnC
bunkerlng.

6.1 Cperat|ng Cond|t|ons
ln Lhls sLudy, consLanL cargo LemperaLure was assumed for boLh Lhe maln LnC llne and Lhe vapor
reLurn llne. 1hls means LhaL Lhe dlscharglng unlL (Lhe bunker barge) has Lo dellver Lhe same cargo
LemperaLures for every operaLlon. 8eallsLlcally, Lhls ls noL Lhe case, and cargo LemperaLures are
expecLed Lo vary beLween -140 Lo -162
o
C on arrlval Lo Lhe bunkerlng slLe. 1emperaLure varlaLlons
could also lead Lo varlaLlons ln denslLy and pressure, whlch wlll have an effecL on Lhe Lransfer
operaLlon and how Lhe varylng denslLy wlll lnfluence Lhe developmenL of Lhe gas leak. SenslLlvlLy
analysls on varylng LemperaLures could have been performed, buL was consldered ouLslde Lhe scope
of Lhls sLudy. 1hls sLudy has chosen Lhe LemperaLure assumpLlon LhaL ls Lhe mosL conservaLlve, whlch
are Lhe coldesL LemperaLures and consequenLly Lhe hlghesL denslLy. 1hls makes Lhe evaporaLlon
slowesL ln Lhe slLuaLlon of an LnC release.

ConsLanL pressure LhroughouL Lhe plplng sysLem ls noL a reallLy durlng bunkerlng operaLlons, as Lhe
flowlng sysLem wlll see Lhe pressure drop Lhrough lLs equlpmenL and plpe conflguraLlons. ressure
changes and pressure varlaLlons could have been calculaLed uslng 8ernoulll. 1hls would have requlred
more speclflc daLa on Lhe sysLem such as, process equlpmenL, speclflc lengLhs of plpes, plplng
conflguraLlons, eLc., wlLh Lhe assoclaLed frlcLlon facLors wlLhln Lhe plpes and hoses. lncludlng Lhls ln
Lhe calculaLlons would have made Lhe model more advanced. 1he hlghesL allowed pressure was
assumed ln all parLs of Lhe sysLem for Lhe purpose of deLermlnlng probablllsLlc safeLy zones. lL would
63
have glven lower calculaLed consequences of a leak Lhan Lhe ouLcome of Lhls sLudy and Lhe
recommendaLlons made.

AnoLher unv reporL dld sLudy Lhe effecL of pressure varlaLlons, and Lhls was Lhe concludlng remark:
wbeo stoyloq lo o teosoooble tooqe of ptessote otoooJ tbe bose cose, tbe opetotloq ptessote bos
llttle lofloeoce oo tbe flool tesolt. 1be votlotloo of opetotloq ptessote bos o qteotet lmpoct ot low
ptessote (l.e. 1-2bot(q)), tboo fot blqbet ptessotes. lowet ptessotes osoolly tesolt lo sbottet sofety
Jlstooces, except fot lotqe leok lo wloJy weotbet cooJltloos.
70


6.2 nose D|mens|ons
1ransfer hoses are produced wlLh varylng dlmenslons, and boLh lengLh and dlameLer could have been
analyzed as senslLlvlLy. AnoLher unv sLudy looked aL Lhe effecL of varylng dlmenslons.
71
Cverall lL
proved LhaL hose lengLh had llLLle effecL, whlle hose dlameLer was slgnlflcanL ln Lhe case of full bore
rupLure. 1he varlaLlon ln hose lengLh malnly lmpacLs Lhe sLaLlc lnvenLory LhaL would be released as a
consequence of a hose rupLure.

6.3 Lmergency ke|ease Coup|ers
ln Lhls reporL we assumed LhaL Lhe hoses would be equlpped wlLh breakaway coupllngs (or L8C). 1hls
ls recommended and seems already Lo have become a sLandard pracLlce ln Lhe lndusLry. 8reakaway
coupllngs wlll ensure LhaL Lhe weak polnL of Lhe hose ls aL Lhe coupllng. 1he cryogenlc Lransfer hose
has a breaklng sLrengLh, whlch wlll exceed Lhe sLrengLh of Lhe breakaway coupllng leadlng Lo
acLlvaLlon of Lhe emergency funcLlon of Lhe breakaway coupllng. When acLlvaLed, Lhe breakaway
coupllng wlll close ln less Lhan a second by Lhe mechanlcal closlng sysLem (valve). 1he qulck closure
slgnlflcanLly reduces any released volumes. 8ased on bunkerlng guldellnes and recommendaLlon from
auLhorlLles, whlch sLress Lhe use of L8C, lL has been assumed LhaL Lhls ls presenL and Lhe use ls besL
pracLlce, buL neverLheless senslLlvlLles could also have been performed.

6.4 Iso|at|on 1|mes
lsolaLlon Llmes depend on Lhe sysLem used and Lhere can be many varlaLlons. 1he values chosen ln
Lhe sLudy are conservaLlve as Lhere are many sLudles operaLlng wlLh shorLer lsolaLlon Llmes. Cne such
example ls Lhe Skangas reporL on LnC bunkerlng ln 8lsavlka, SLavanger, whlch shows LhaL LSu
reacLlon Llme ls consldered Lo be 90 seconds, 60 seconds for deLecLlon and reacLlon, and 30 seconds
Lo close lL down. ln Lhls sLudy lL was declded Lo use Lhe longer (more conservaLlve) closlng Llmes
publlshed ln Lechnlcal guldellnes. 1he effecLs of reduced lsolaLlon Llmes would probably be slmllar Lo
Lhe resulLs Lhls sLudy prescrlbes, and for smaller leaks lsolaLlon Llme ls pracLlcally lrrelevanL, buL for
larger leaks lL ls a greaL conLrlbuLlng facLor. 1he Skangas reporL concluded LhaL Lhe conLour llnes and
safeLy zones are lncreaslngly reduced wlLh shorLer closlng Llmes.

6.S ke|ease arameters
8aLe, dlrecLlon and helghL of release are all facLors LhaL can and should be analyzed ln furLher sLudles.
PelghL and dlrecLlon can boLh glve subsLanLlal dlfferences ln Lhe formaLlon of a llquld pool. Lspeclally
for small and medlum hole slzes Lhls could affecL Lhe dlfference of lnsLanL evaporaLlon versus pool
formaLlon and prolonged evaporaLlon. 1he release raLe depends on pump flow raLes, and wlll
naLurally have a large effecL on Lhe released amounL. neverLheless, slnce Lhe value chosen ln Lhls
66
sLudy was based on maxlmum raLes advlsed by auLhorlLles, Lhe resulLlng safeLy zone should noL have
become any larger.


6.6 robab|||ty of I|re
1he probablllLy of flammable effecL was seL Lo 100 probablllLy, Lo correlaLe wlLh currenL C8A
pracLlce ln Lhe lndusLry. 1hls assumpLlon does noL represenL real llfe evenLs, as lgnlLlon sources are
llmlLed. 1he effecL of varylng flammable probablllLles could have been an lnLeresLlng assessmenL, as
Lhe llkellhood ls consldered very low.





67
Append|x A - asqu|| Stab|||ty Iactors


W|ndspeed Day: So|ar kad|at|on N|ght: C|oud Cover
(m/s) (mph) Strong Moderate S||ght 1h|n
<40
Moderate Cvercast
>80
< 2 < 3 A A-8 8 - - u
2 - 3 3 - 7 A-8 8 C L l u
3 - 3 7 - 11 8 8-C C u L u
3 - 6 11 - 13 C C-u u u u u
> 6 > 13 C u u u u u
Source: http:]]www.ready.noaa.gov]kLADpgc|ass.php



68
Append|x 8 - nA2ID for S1S 8unker|ng



69

70



71
Append|x C - k|sk kank|ng Matr|x

72
Append|x D - DNV k acc|dent scenar|os
AccldenLs scenarlos, whlch should be consldered for relevance.

LNG acc|dent scenar|os
Source of release Scenario Possible causes
Ceneral process
and cargo handllng
AccldenLal release
from equlpmenL
and plplng
Lack of flange LlghLness
uefecLlve gaskeL
Weld defecLs
Corroslon
lmpacL
SupporLlng sLrucLure damage
LxLernal flre
Cverpressure (e.g. pressure LesLs durlng commlsslon)
LmbrlLLlemenL
LarLhquake, floods and oLher naLural hazards
AccldenLal release
from LnC Lanks aL
[eLLy or on shlps
Shlp colllslon asslng shlp adrlfL
Shlp pressure rellef
valve
Cverpressure
8ollover
Cnshore sLorage 1ank leakage uropped ln Lank pump
lnLernal or exLernal leak ln Lank boLLom or wall
LarLhquake
CaLasLrophlc rupLure and leakages
1ank Sv release 1ank overfllllng
1ank overpressure
8ollover
8LLvL llre lmpacL on pressurlzed hydrocarbon llquld
conLalners. 8LLvL ls only consldered as a poLenLlal
LhreaL for pressurlsed sLorage Lank, where Lhe
loadbearlng sLrucLure ls exposed Lo flre loads.
Loadlng/unloadlng
llnes
Leaks from plplng
and manlfold
See general
AccldenLal release
from Lhe loadlng
arm or hose
Leak /full bore
rupLure
Mechanlcal fallure mode
Loss of moorlng, drlfL off
asslng shlp adrlfL
Shlp colllslon
LnC Lruck 8eleases durlng
Lransfer
8upLure of Lransfer hoses, Lruck or plplng. CperaLlonal
errors, mechanlcal errors
CaLasLrophlc rupLure, warm 8LLvL
LnC supply shlp Leakage from
cargo Lank
SLrucLural damage
73
LNG acc|dent scenar|os
Source of release Scenario Possible causes
Colllslon damage lf Lhls ls ldenLlfled as a credlble rlsk ln
Lhe PAZlu
74
Append|x L - Iau|t 1ree Mode|

1hese are Lhe excel lnpuL values. 1he nexL page lllusLraLes Lhe calculaLlons made and Lhe model.
73















































76
Append|x I - nose Ia||ure Irequency Ca|cu|at|ons



77
Append|x G - nAS1 kesu|ts (Max|mum D|spers|on D|stances)

78


79

80



81



82


83
Append|x n - nAS1k|sk kesu|t (Software V|ew)
84
keference L|st

1
!ames, C. 2013. 8ldlng 1he Wave. Amerlcan Cas, Aprll
2
!ames, C. 2013. Peavy uuLy SLuff: LnC as 1ransporL luel. Amerlcan Cas, Aprll.
2
!ames, C. 2013. Peavy uuLy SLuff: LnC as 1ransporL luel. Amerlcan Cas, Aprll.
3
LnC Shlpplng 8evlew. 2012. veka-Croup uevelops Small LnC 1ankers.
4
!ames, C. 2013. 8ldlng 1he Wave. Amerlcan Cas, Aprll
3
Cermanlscher Lloyd. 2013. llnal 8eporL Luropean MarlLlme SafeLy Agency (LMSA) SLudy on
SLandards and 8ules for 8unkerlng of Cas-lueled Shlps. [reporL].
6
Cermanlscher Lloyd. 2013. llnal 8eporL Luropean MarlLlme SafeLy Agency (LMSA) SLudy on
SLandards and 8ules for 8unkerlng of Cas-lueled Shlps. [reporL].
7
Shell Shlpplng. 2012. LnC 8unkerlng lnsLallaLlon Culdellnes SS102167. [reporL].
8
8llkom, L.., & lolberL, M. (2013, 29). unv CL 8log - Lnergy of Lhe luLure. now to colcolote sofety
zooes fot lNC booketloq. 8eLrleved november 29, 2013, from
hLLp://blogs.dnv.com/lng/2013/11/how-Lo-calculaLe-safeLy-zones-for-lng-bunkerlng-2/
9
ueL norske verlLas. 2011. uNv tepott oo tbe poteotlol of lNC sblpploq lo tbe 8oltlc. [reporL].
10
u. van Meulen (2012) lott toolklt tlsk ptoflle - lNC booketloq, 8oLLerdam: ueL norske verlLas.
[reporL]
11
lSC 1echnlcal ComeLee (2013) l5O/1c 67/wC 10 1ecbolcol kepott: lnLernaLlonal CrganlzaLlon for
SLandardlzaLlon. [reporL]
12
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
13
8llkom, L.., & lolberL, M. (2013, 29). unv CL 8log - Lnergy of Lhe luLure. now to colcolote sofety
zooes fot lNC booketloq. 8eLrleved november 29, 2013, from
hLLp://blogs.dnv.com/lng/2013/11/how-Lo-calculaLe-safeLy-zones-for-lng-bunkerlng-2/
14
8llkom, L.., & lolberL, M. (2013, 29). unv CL 8log - Lnergy of Lhe luLure. now to colcolote sofety
zooes fot lNC booketloq. 8eLrleved november 29, 2013, from
hLLp://blogs.dnv.com/lng/2013/11/how-Lo-calculaLe-safeLy-zones-for-lng-bunkerlng-2/
13
8llkom, L.., & lolberL, M. (2013, 29). unv CL 8log - Lnergy of Lhe luLure. now to colcolote sofety
zooes fot lNC booketloq. 8eLrleved november 29, 2013, from
hLLp://blogs.dnv.com/lng/2013/11/how-Lo-calculaLe-safeLy-zones-for-lng-bunkerlng-2/
16
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
17
8llkom, L.., & lolberL, M. (2013, 29). unv CL 8log - Lnergy of Lhe luLure. now to colcolote sofety
zooes fot lNC booketloq. 8eLrleved november 29, 2013, from
hLLp://blogs.dnv.com/lng/2013/11/how-Lo-calculaLe-safeLy-zones-for-lng-bunkerlng-2/
18
8llkom, L.., & lolberL, M. (2013, 29). unv CL 8log - Lnergy of Lhe luLure. now to colcolote sofety
zooes fot lNC booketloq. 8eLrleved november 29, 2013, from
hLLp://blogs.dnv.com/lng/2013/11/how-Lo-calculaLe-safeLy-zones-for-lng-bunkerlng-2/
19
8lvM (2009) uotcb kefeteoce Mooool klsk Assessmeots - lotple 8ook, 3.2 edn., Lhe neLherlands:
naLlonal lnsLlLuLe of ubllc PealLh and Lhe LnvlronmenL (8lvM).
20
8lvM (2009) uotcb kefeteoce Mooool klsk Assessmeots - lotple 8ook, 3.2 edn., Lhe neLherlands:
naLlonal lnsLlLuLe of ubllc PealLh and Lhe LnvlronmenL (8lvM).
21
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
22
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
23
u. van Meulen (2012) lott toolklt tlsk ptoflle - lNC booketloq, 8oLLerdam: ueL norske verlLas.
[reporL]
24
unv CL (2013) lollote ltepoeocy ColJe - ptocess epolpmeot leok ftepoeocles Joto fot ose lo OkA, :
unv Servlng Lhe rocesss lndusLry.
23
u. van Meulen (2012) lott toolklt tlsk ptoflle - lNC booketloq, 8oLLerdam: ueL norske verlLas.
[reporL]
26
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
27
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
28
unv CL (2013) lollote ltepoeocy ColJe - ptocess epolpmeot leok ftepoeocles Joto fot ose lo OkA, :
unv Servlng Lhe rocesss lndusLry.
83

29
unv CL (2013) lollote ltepoeocy ColJe - ptocess epolpmeot leok ftepoeocles Joto fot ose lo OkA, :
unv Servlng Lhe rocesss lndusLry.
30
ueL norske verlLas (2013) 'hasL1M - Addlng value Lo Lhe emergency plannlng and response
process', uNv 5oftwote, (), pp. [Cnllne]. Avallable aL:
bttp.//www.Jov.com/blootles/1J0J_lbostX20metqeocyX20kespoose_J_tcm4-546982.pJf
[Accessed: 12Lh november 2014].
31
unv CL (2013) lbost, Avallable aL:
bttp.//www.Jov.com/setvlces/softwote/ptoJocts/pbost_sofetl/pbost/ [Accessed: 29Lh november
2010].
32
unv SofLware (2013) obooce yoot nA2lu osloq lbost, Avallable aL:
bttp.//www.Jov.com/blootles/nA2lu_0412_oqllsb_tcm4-5251J4.pJf (Accessed: 29Lh november
2010).
33
Shell Shlpplng. 2012. lNC 8ooketloq lostollotloo ColJelloes 55102167. [reporL].
34
Shell Shlpplng. 2012. lNC 8ooketloq lostollotloo ColJelloes 55102167. [reporL].
33
Shell Shlpplng. 2012. lNC 8ooketloq lostollotloo ColJelloes 55102167. [reporL].
36
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
37
Swedlsh Marlne 1echnology lorum, Llnde Cryo A8, lkA8 Marlne ueslgn, ueL norske verlLas AS, LnC
CC1 and WhlLe Smoke A8. 2010. lNC sblp to sblp booketloq ptoceJote. Creenshlpplng. [reporL].
38
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
39
Swedlsh Marlne 1echnology lorum, Llnde Cryo A8, lkA8 Marlne ueslgn, ueL norske verlLas AS, LnC
CC1 and WhlLe Smoke A8. 2010. lNC sblp to sblp booketloq ptoceJote. Creenshlpplng. [reporL].
40
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
41
eLLersen, !. 2012. Compendlum LnC 1echnology. 1l4185 Nototol Cos 1ecbooloqy - N1Nu.
42
8logs.dnv.com. 2013. 8oslcs of lNC sofety { uNv 8loq - oetqy of tbe lotote. [onllne] Avallable aL:
hLLp://blogs.dnv.com/lng/lars-peLLer-bllkom/ [Accessed: 23 Aprll 2013].
43
klaussen, C. 2013. Cas course caLegory A, 8 and C - for crew of gas-fulled shlps. Cosstekolkk.
44
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
43
C. van der Wel[de and n. Mallon (!une 19-24, 2011) Ooollflcotloo of Moltl-composlte noses fot 515
lNC 1toosfet, l58N. 978-0-7918-44JJ-5, pp. 209-215, 8oLLerdam, 1he neLherlands: ASML 2011 30Lh
lnLernaLlonal Conference on Ccean, Cffshore and ArcLlc Lnglneerlng.
46
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
47
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
48
1ellkamp, !., & Lle SLrm, k. (2013). unv 8ecommended racLlce for LnC bunkerlng lnsLallaLlons.
49
unv SofLware (2013) obooce yoot nA2lu osloq lbost, Avallable aL:
bttp.//www.Jov.com/blootles/nA2lu_0412_oqllsb_tcm4-5251J4.pJf (Accessed: 29Lh november
2010).
30
u. van Meulen (2012) lott toolklt tlsk ptoflle - lNC booketloq, 8oLLerdam: ueL norske verlLas.
[reporL]
31
Alr 8esources LaboraLory (2011) lospolll 5toblllty closses, Avallable aL:
bttp.//www.teoJy.oooo.qov/kAupqcloss.pbp |Accessed: 13Lh november 2010].
32
WeaLher Measure (2007) wbot ls o wloJ kose?, Avallable aL:
bttp.//www.weotbetmeosote.com/2007/0J/wbot-ls-wloJ-tose.btml [Accessed: 13Lh november
2010].
33
WeaLher Measure (2007) wbot ls o wloJ kose?, Avallable aL:
bttp.//www.weotbetmeosote.com/2007/0J/wbot-ls-wloJ-tose.btml [Accessed: 13Lh november
2010].
34
Shell Shlpplng. 2012. lNC 8ooketloq lostollotloo ColJelloes 55102167. [reporL].
33
Shell Shlpplng. 2012. lNC 8ooketloq lostollotloo ColJelloes 55102167. [reporL].
36
Shell Shlpplng. 2012. lNC 8ooketloq lostollotloo ColJelloes 55102167. [reporL].
37
u. van Meulen (2012) lott toolklt tlsk ptoflle - lNC booketloq, 8oLLerdam: ueL norske
verlLas.[reporL]
38
8lvM (2009) uotcb kefeteoce Mooool klsk Assessmeots - lotple 8ook, 3.2 edn., Lhe neLherlands:
naLlonal lnsLlLuLe of ubllc PealLh and Lhe LnvlronmenL (8lvM).
86

39
8lvM (2009) uotcb kefeteoce Mooool klsk Assessmeots - lotple 8ook, 3.2 edn., Lhe neLherlands:
naLlonal lnsLlLuLe of ubllc PealLh and Lhe LnvlronmenL (8lvM).
60
8lvM (2009) uotcb kefeteoce Mooool klsk Assessmeots - lotple 8ook, 3.2 edn., Lhe neLherlands:
naLlonal lnsLlLuLe of ubllc PealLh and Lhe LnvlronmenL (8lvM).
61
ueL norske verlLas (2013) AppeoJlx u - leok ltepoeocles Aoolysls kepott No./uNv keq No..201J-
4091/171l129-J, SLavanger, norway: Skangass AS. [reporL]
62
ueL norske verlLas (2013) AppeoJlx A - leok ltepoeocles Aoolysls kepott No./uNv keq No..201J-
4091/171l129-J, SLavanger, norway: Skangass AS. [reporL]
63
8lvM (2009) uotcb kefeteoce Mooool klsk Assessmeots - lotple 8ook, 3.2 edn., Lhe neLherlands:
naLlonal lnsLlLuLe of ubllc PealLh and Lhe LnvlronmenL (8lvM).
64
8lvM (2009) uotcb kefeteoce Mooool klsk Assessmeots - lotple 8ook, 3.2 edn., Lhe neLherlands:
naLlonal lnsLlLuLe of ubllc PealLh and Lhe LnvlronmenL (8lvM).
63
unv CL (2013) lollote ltepoeocy ColJe - ptocess epolpmeot leok ftepoeocles Joto fot ose lo OkA, :
unv Servlng Lhe rocess lndusLry.
66
unv CL (2013) lollote ltepoeocy ColJe - ptocess epolpmeot leok ftepoeocles Joto fot ose lo OkA, :
unv Servlng Lhe rocess lndusLry.
67
unv CL (2013) lollote ltepoeocy ColJe - ptocess epolpmeot leok ftepoeocles Joto fot ose lo OkA, :
unv Servlng Lhe rocess lndusLry.
68
unv CL (2013) lollote ltepoeocy ColJe - ptocess epolpmeot leok ftepoeocles Joto fot ose lo OkA, :
unv Servlng Lhe rocess lndusLry.
69
1. A. edersen & n. !. LlndLner (2011) tfotloqet - slooqebtoJJ l flekslble loste-/losseslooqet. CA5-
2\-001-04, : Casnor, Slangebrudd-erfarlnger 2003-2010. [reporL]
70
C. 8aldan (2013) lNC 8ooketloq. 5ofety ulstooces, : ueL norske verlLas. [reporL]
71
C. 8aldan (2013) lNC 8ooketloq. 5ofety ulstooces, : ueL norske verlLas. [reporL]