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1NC Debris
Space debris is on the brink now Plan increases debris with each
launch that makes space un-usable which turns the case
(Clark 10)
Stuart Clark, PHD in Astrophysics, 2010. - holds a frst class honours degree and a PhD in astrophysics. He is a ello! o" the #oyal Astrono$ical Society
and a "or$er %ice Chair o" the Association o" &ritish Science 'riters. %isiting "ello! o" Pu(lic Astrono$y )ducation at the *ni+ersity o" Hert"ordshire. ,-'ho
you gonna call. /unk (usters01 2e! Scientist, Septe$(er 11, 2010. 3e4is,
We'll soon be cut of rom space i we don't deal with the debris in or(it, !arns Stuart
Clark )A#5H6S rings ha+e ne+er looked so (eauti"ul, you think as you look up at the pallid sli+er o" light arcing through the night sky. 7et unlike Saturn6s
$agnifcent (ands o" dust and ru((le, )arth6s halo is one o" our o!n $aking. 8t is nothing (ut space 9unk, s$ashed-up de(ris "ro$ thousands o" satellites
that once $onitored our cli$ate, (ea$ed do!n 5% progra$$es and helped us fnd our !ay around. 5his scenario is e+ery space engineer6s night$are. 8t
is kno!n as the :essler syndro$e a"ter Donald :essler, "or$erly at 2ASA6s /ohnson Space Center in Houston, 5e4as. &ack in 1;<=, he and colleague &urton
Cour-Palais proposed that as the nu$(er o" satellites rose, so !ould the risk o" accidental collisions. Such disasters !ould create large clouds o" shrapnel,
$aking "urther collisions !ith other satellites $ore likely and sparking a chain reaction that !ould s!i"tly surround the )arth !ith (elts o" de(ris. >r(its
!ould (eco$e so clogged as to (e unusa(le and e+entually our access to space !ould (e co$pletely (locked. >n 10 e(ruary 200; it started to happen.
8n the frst collision (et!een t!o intact satellites, the de"unct #ussian cra"t :os$os-22?1 struck co$$unications satellite 8ridiu$ @@ at a speed o" A2,100
kilo$etres per hour. 5he i$pact shattered one o" 8ridiu$ @@6s solar panels and sent the satellite into a helpless tu$(le. :os$os-22?1 !as utterly
destroyed. 5he t!o or(its are no! ho$e to clouds o" de(ris that, according to the *S $ilitary6s Space Sur+eillance 2et!ork ,SS2B, contain $ore than 2000
"rag$ents larger than 10 centi$etres. 5he collision $ay also ha+e produced hundreds o" thousands o" s$aller "rag$ents, !hich cannot currently (e
tracked "ro$ )arth. Such de(ris is a serious !orry. 'ith satellites tra+elling at tens o" thousands o" kilo$etres per hour, any encounter !ith de(ris could
(e lethal. C!ein" hit b# a 1-centimetre ob$ect at orbital %elocit# is the
e&ui%alent o e'plodin" a hand "renade ne't to a satellite() says Heiner
:linkrad, head o" the space de(ris oDce at the )uropean Space Agency in Dar$stadt, Eer$any. ) *ridium and +osmos was
an earl# indication o the +essler s#ndrome,) Space 9unk isn6t 9ust $ade up o" dead satellites. 8t
also includes spent upper-stage rockets, used to lo"t the satellites into or(it, and ite$s that ha+e escaped the grasp o" (utterfngered astronauts, such as
the glo+e )d 'hite dropped in 1;F? as he (eca$e the frst A$erican to !alk in space, and the tool kit that slipped "ro$ Heide Ste"anyshyn-Piper6s hand
during a 200= space !alk. Protecti+e co+ers and the e4plosi+e (olts used to separate the$ "ro$ uncre!ed spacecra"t ha+e also (een le"t to Goat a!ay,
along !ith a "e! lens caps "or good $easure. So$e o" these o(9ects re-enter the at$osphere and (urn up, (ut $ost are still up there. 5he SS2 has
catalogued 12,000 o(9ects in )arth or(it that are at least 10 centi$etres in siHe, a(out three-Iuarters o" !hich are space 9unk. or o(9ects (igger than 1
centi$etre, the esti$ates are "righteningJ there are anything "ro$ hundreds o" thousands to $illions o" the$, $ostly in unkno!n or(its and each capa(le
o" s$ashing a satellite to s$ithereens. -%er# rocket launch creates #et more space debris (
ed"in" us e%er closer to the +essler s#ndrome becomin" a realit#.
Era+eyards and Ho$(ies So !hat can (e done. or a start, !e can try not to $ake the pro(le$ !orse. 5his can (e as si$ple as ensuring that protecti+e
co+ers are tethered to spacecra"t rather than 9ettisoned. 8t also includes sticking to international guidelines intended to $ini$ise ne! de(ris, dra!n up (y
the 8nter-Agency Space De(ris Coordination Co$$ittee ,8ADCB, !hich represents all the !orld6s $a9or space agencies. 5hese reIuire, "or e4a$ple, that
spacecra"t in lo! )arth or(it $ust (e $ade to re-enter the at$osphere and (urn up !ithin 2? years o" fnishing their $issions. Co$$unications satellites
in the high-altitude geostationary or(it cannot (e (rought do!n practically. 8nstead, the guidelines say operators should use the last o" their satellites6 "uel
to (oost the$ into a Cgra+eyard or(itC @00 kilo$etres higher up ,see diagra$, page A;B. 7et e+en !ith these guidelines in place, :linkrad says, C8t is pretty
co$$on to lea+e your spacecra"t stranded.C 5!el+e satellites in geosynchronous or(it "ailed in 200=, (ut only se+en !ere (oosted in accordance !ith the
guidelines. And $ore than =00 o" the 1200 tracka(le o(9ects near the geostationary corridor are not acti+e satellites. 5he $ost recent dra$a there
in+ol+ed the co$$unications satellite Eala4y 1?, !hich (eca$e !idely kno!n as the CHo$(ie satelliteC ,see CKarch o" the Ho$(ieC, page A=B. -%en
i the "uidelines were ollowed to the letter( the number o debris
ra"ments would still "o up. C'e could e+en stop launching and the a$ount o" de(ris !ould still rise,C says Hugh 3e!is
o" the *ni+ersity o" Southa$pton in the *:. 5hat6s (ecause accidental collisions !ould still happen. :essler predicted that i" nothing !ere done to re$o+e
de(ris, !e !ould (egin to suLer the conseIuences in 2000. As it turned out, the 8ridiu$ and :os$os collision did not happen "or another nine years. 5he
$ain reason "or our period o" grace $ay (e that $odern satellites are $anoeu+ra(le. 'hen a piece o" space de(ris is seen approaching, satellite
operators can $o+e their C(irdC out o" the !ay. Such ducking and dodging used to (e rare. 2ot any longer. A "e! years ago, operators !ere recei+ing one
or t!o !arnings o" space de(ris a $onthM no! it can (e t!o or three ti$es a !eek. )+ery ti$e a ne! !arning co$es in, they $ust (egin a <2-hour
tracking ca$paign using ground-(ased radar to refne the or(it o" the o(9ect and esta(lish !hether to take e+asi+e action or not. As i" accidents !eren6t
(ad enough, in 200< China launched a missile that destro#ed their eng 7un 1C
weather satellite. 8t !as an ostentatious display o" $ilitary capa(ility, perhaps intended as a !arning to anyone thinking o" putting
!eapons into space, (ut it also sent shock !a+es through space operations centres around the !orld. .hat incident( in
combination with the *ridium s$ash in 200;, created so much debris that the
number o ra"ments in lo! )arth or(it large enough to be tracked "ro$ the ground al$ost doubled.
So$e cra"t are $ore +ulnera(le to de(ris than others, says 3e!is, !ho has de+eloped so"t!are to $odel ho! space 9unk spreads and e+ol+es o+er ti$e.
5ake the A-train NM "our satellites that or(it )arth one (ehind the other, $onitoring the at$osphere as they go. 5he closest pair are 9ust 1? seconds apart,
and this pro4i$ity $akes the A-train especially +ulnera(le. Should one o" the A-train6s units (e s$ashed (y an inco$ing piece o" de(ris, the chances are
!e could lose all "our. As things stand, re$ediation NM as space engineers call it NM is a necessity. 8n other !ords, so$eone !ill ha+e to go up there and
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(ring the stuL do!n. &ut !hich (its. 'ho !ill do it. Ho! !ill they do it. And !ho is going to pay. 8nitially the te$ptation $ight (e to (ring do!n as $uch
as !e can, (ut this !ill cost. C8t !ill (e so e4pensi+e to re$o+e satellites "ro$ or(it that you !ill ha+e to target !hich ones you !ant to take do!n,C 3e!is
says. He has in+estigated a nu$(er o" approaches that ai$ to identi"y the $ost dangerous space 9unk. 5he $ost o(+ious strategy $ight (e to target the
(iggest o(9ects, (ut 3e!is6s analysis sho!s that this $ay not (e (est. /ust (ecause so$ething presents a large target does not $ean that it !ould i$peril
other satellites. 8t $ay (e that a s$aller de"unct satellite in a particular or(it presents $ore danger to a greater nu$(er o" li+e cra"t. 5o $ake this idea
$ore tangi(le, 3e!is is treating satellites and space 9unk as ele$ents in a kind o" $athe$atical net!ork, a net!ork !hose connections re+eal ho! $any
o(9ects a gi+en satellite approaches in or(it ,Acta Astronautica, +ol FF, p 2?<B. C8t is like Eoogle page-ranking. 5he $ost connected o(9ects co$e up near
the top o" the list,C says 3e!is. 5hese or(ital connections can (e used to decide !hich o(9ects are the $ost dangerous. &ring those do!n and you halt the
:essler syndro$e in its tracks. 3e!is !on6t (e dra!n on !hich (its o" 9unk are the $ost dangerous, ho!e+erM he is loath to rile their o!ners. A range o"
ne! technology could (e used to (ring do!n dead satellites, 3e!is says, and it !ould itsel" (e satellite-(ased. A specialised satellite could fre a laser at a
derelict cra"t, $elting co$ponents and releasing gas that !ould propel it out o" har$6s !ay. >r the clearance satellite could play an or(ital ga$e o" Cpin
the tail on the donkeyC, attaching tethers to the dead satellite to increase at$ospheric drag and cause it to (urn up in the at$osphere. >n the "ace o" it,
e+ery country ought to !elco$e the de+elop$ent o" ne! technology to clean up space. 8n reality, the picture is clouded (y the o(+ious $ilitary
applications. C8" you can (ring do!n dead satellites, you can (ring do!n li+e ones too,C 3e!is says. Space (ounty 5hen there are the legal issues around
space de(ris. *nder $ariti$e la!, anyone can re$o+e an a(andoned ship !ithout the o!ner6s per$ission. 2ot so "or space +ehicles, as stipulated in the
1;F< >uter Space 5reaty. C>nce you put it up there, it is yours "or li"e,C says /a$es Dunstan, a la!yer specialising in issues to do !ith space and "ounder o"
Ko(ius 3egal Eroup in 'ashington DC. So the *S $ay not re$o+e a #ussian satellite "ro$ or(it !ith i$punity, e+en i" that satellite !ere co$pletely dead
and presenting a danger to !orking spacecra"t. 5ogether !ith &erin SHoka o" the Progress and reedo$ oundation, a think-tank also (ased in 'ashington
DC, Dunstan has created the outlines o" an econo$ic $odel that !ould see pri+ate industry taking responsi(ility "or re$o+ing space de(ris. An
international (ody, such as the 8ADC, !ould put a price NM rather like a (ounty NM on e+ery de"unct satellite. Pri+ate co$panies can lodge (ids !ith satellite
o!ners "or the right to (uy and de-or(it their spacecra"t. >nce de-or(iting is success"ully co$pleted, the co$pany could pocket the (ounty, !hich !ould
(e "unded out o" a ne! ta4 that satellite operators !ould ha+e to pay. &ut !hy (ring these things do!n 9ust to (urn up in the at$osphere !hen they are
potentially +alua(le. Dunstan esti$ates that o" the F000 tonnes o" $aterial in )arth or(it, one-si4th is high-grade alu$iniu$ in the "or$ o" discarded
upper rocket stages. 5hese e$pty "uel tanks ha+e an internal +olu$e 20 ti$es that o" the 8nternational Space Station. 8" they could only (e corralled, they
!ould $ake an ine4pensi+e space station or, Dunstan suggests, they could (e cut into shielding $aterial to protect other satellites. C'hy not set up /oe6s
Shingle Shack in or(it.C he asks, only hal"-9oking. 'hile the or(ital eIui+alent o" a used-car sales$an selling satellite parts is so$e !ay oL, the need to do
$ore a(out space 9unk is i$$ediate. C/ur uture abilit# to use space is directl#
$eopardised b# space debris () says SHoka. )ncouragingly, the )uropean Space Agency has signed a contract !ith
Spanish co$pany 8ndra )spacio to de+elop a radar syste$ to track space de(ris. 8n the *S, &all Aerospace and 5echnologies has colla(orated !ith &oeing
on the Space &ased Space Sur+eillance satellite, a dedicated space-9unk telescope a!aiting launch. C8t is +ery urgent that !e (egin to re$o+e $ass "ro$
or(it,C says :linkrad. )+en as !e talk, his tea$ is (eginning another tracking ca$paign. So$ething is stalking )SA6s )#S-1 satellite, and they ha+e to
decide in the ne4t day or t!o !hether or not to use precious "uel to $o+e the spacecra"t. As :linkrad says in a resigned +oice, C5his is (eco$ing an
e+eryday situation.C n Stuart Clark is author o" 5he &ig OuestionsJ 5he *ni+erse ,Ouercus, 2010B. ind his (log at !!!.stuartclark.co$ )0 ew
#ears a"o( we were recei%in" one or two w arnin" s o space debris a
month, 1ow it's three a week) Karch o" the Po$(i) Eala4y 1? is a na$e to strike terror into the hearts o" satellite
operators around the !orld. >nce an ordinary and largely anony$ous teleco$$unications satellite, it is no! a Ho$(ie. 8t stopped talking to its $asters on
? April, 9ust as a solar stor$ (attered the )arth. 5he satellite6s o!ner 8ntelsat is still in+estigating !hether this caused Eala4y 1? to lose its $ind. &ut
Eala4y 1? is not only a pro(le$ "or its o!ner. ollo!ing its $al"unction, it (egan an ine4ora(le $arch across space, (ound "or a natural or(ital gra+eyard
created (y )arth6s gra+ity. 8n its (lind stu$(le to get there, Eala4y 1? risks colliding !ith other satellites. 8t has already $enaced three and has at least
three others in its path. 5o a+ert destruction, satellite operators $ust !ait "or the Ho$(ie to dra! close and then $anoeu+re their o!n satellite to
Cleap"rogC it. 'hat $akes Eala4y 1? particularly annoying is that its $ain trans$itter and recei+er are still !orking. As it dri"ts across the path o" another
!orking satellite, it could inter"ere !ith co$$unications. 5o a+oid this, satellite operators are signalling on tighter (ea$s !ith larger antennae and less
po!er. 8n eLect they are !hispering to their satellites in the hope they !on6t attract the Ho$(ie6s attention. All o" this is costing $oney NM (ig $oney.
C5hese satellites are proft centres $aking $illions o" dollars a $onth,C says /a$es Dunstan o" Ko(ius 3egal Eroup in 'ashington DC. -%er#
dod"e to a+oid a collision eats around 210 million into a satellite's pro3ts. 5hat6s
(ecause collision a%oidance manoeu%res waste precious uel that would
otherwise be used to combat the tendenc# or satellites to drit of
into orbital "ra%e#ards, Although co$panies do not di+ulge ho! $uch "uel they use in collision a+oidance $anoeu+res,
Dunstan esti$ates that each one $ust shorten a satellite6s li"espan (y (et!een "our and 12 $onths. He says dealing !ith Eala4y 1? could easily cost the
teleco$$s industry Q100 $illion. 5o(ias 2assi" o" 8ntelsat sees it diLerently. He says that constant +igilance $eans that $ost collision $anoeu+res can (e
(uilt into ones $ade "ortnightly to stop satellites dri"ting. CSpace de(ris is not a gra+e concern,C he says, C(ut it is al!ays on our $ind.C
Debris also cause a US-Russian War due to miscalculation
(Lewis 04)
Post doctorate Fellow in the Advanced Methods of Cooperative Security Program, (Jeffery, July hat if Space ere eaponi!ed" Possi#le
Conse$uences for Conflict Scenarios% Center for &efense 'nformation, http())www*cdi*org)P&Fs)scenarios*pdf+
'hat !ould happen i a piece o" space debris !ere to disable a 4ussian early-!arning satellite under these
conditions. Could the 4ussian $ilitary distin"uish between an accident in space and the frst
phase o" a *.S. attack. Kost #ussian early-!arning satellites are in elliptical Kolniya or(its ,a "e! are in E)>B and thus diDcult to attack "ro$ the
ground or air. At a $ini$u$, Kosco! !ould pro(a(ly ha+e so$e tactical !arning o" such a suspicious launch, (ut gi+en the sorr# state
o 4ussia5s warnin", optical i$aging and signals intelligence satellites there is reason to
ask the &uestion. urther, the ad+ent o" *.S. on-or(it ASA5s, as no! en+isioned?0 could $ake (oth the $ore diDcult or(ital plane and
any !arning syste$s $oot. 5he unpleasant truth is that the 4ussians likely would ha%e to make a
$ud"ment call. 2o state has the a(ility to defniti+ely deter$ine the cause o" the satelliteRs "ailure. )+en the *nited States does not
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$aintain ,nor is it likely to ha+e in place (y 2010B a sophisticated space sur+eillance syste$ that !ould allo! it to distinguish (et!een a satellite
$al"unction, a de(ris strike or a deli(erate attack N and #ussian space sur+eillance capa(ilities are $uch $ore li$ited (y co$parison. )+en the risk
assess$ents "or collision !ith de(ris are speculati+e, particularly "or the uniIue or(its in !hich #ussian early-!arning satellites operate. During peaceti$e,
it is easy to i$agine that the #ussians !ould conclude that the loss o" a satellite !as either a $al"unction or a de(ris strike. &ut ho! confdent could *.S.
planners (e that the #ussians !ould (e so cal$ i" the accident in space occurred in tande$ !ith a second "alse alar$, or occurred during the $iddle o" a
crisis. 'hat $ight happen i" the de(ris strike occurred shortly a"ter a "alse alar$ sho!ing a $issile launch. alse alar$s are appallingly co$$on N
according to in"or$ation o(tained under the reedo$ o" 8n"or$ation Act, the *.S.-Canadian 2orth A$erican Aerospace De"ense Co$$and ,2>#ADB
e4perienced 1,1<2 -$oderately serious1 "alse alar$s (et!een 1;<< and 1;=@ N an a+erage o" al$ost three "alse alar$s per !eek. Co$para(le
in"or$ation is not a+aila(le a(out the #ussian syste$, (ut there is no reason to (elie+e that it is any $ore relia(le.?1 Assessing the likelihood o" these
sorts o" coincidences is diDcult (ecause #ussia has ne+er pro+ided data a(out the "reIuency or duration o" "alse alar$sM nor indicated ho! seriously early-
!arning data is taken (y #ussian leaders. Koreo+er, there is no relia(le esti$ate o" the de(ris risk "or #ussian satellites in highly elliptical or(its.?2 5he
i$portant point, ho!e+er, is that such a coincidence !ould only appear suspicious i" the *nited States !ere in the (usiness o" disa(ling satellites N in
other !ords, there is $uch less risk i" 'ashington does not de+elop ASA5s. 5he loss o" an early-!arning satellite could look rather o$inous i" it occurred
during a period o" $a9or tension in the relationship. 'hile 2A5> no longer sees #ussia as $uch o" a threat, the sa$e cannot (e said o" the con+erse.
Despite the !ar$ talk, #ussian leaders re$ain !ary o" 2A5> e4pansion, particularly the eLect e4pansion $ay ha+e on the &altic port o" :aliningrad.
Although part o" #ussia, :aliningrad is separated "ro$ the rest o" #ussia (y 3ithuania and Poland. #ussia has already co$plained a(out its decreasing lack
o" access to the port, particularly the uncooperati+e attitude o" the 3ithuanian go+ern-$ent.?@ 2e!s reports suggest that an ed"#
4ussia ma# ha%e mo%ed tactical nuclear weapons into the encla%e,?A 8"
the 3ithuanian go+ern$ent !ere to close access to :aliningrad in a ft o" piIue, this !ould trigger a $a9or crisis (et!een 2A5> and #ussia. *nder these
circu$stances, the loss o" an early-!arning satellite !ould (e e4tre$ely suspicious. 8t is any $ilitaryRs nature during a crisis to interpret e+ents in their
!orst-case light. or e4a$ple, consider the coincidences that occurred in early Septe$(er 1;?F, during the e4traordinarily tense period in international
relations $arked (y the SueH Crisis and Hungarian uprising.?? >n one e+ening the 'hite House recei+ed $essages indicatingJ 1. the 5urkish Air orce had
gone on alert in response to unidentifed aircra"t penetrating its airspaceM 2. one hundred So+iet KiE-1?s !ere Gying o+er SyriaM @. a &ritish Can(erra
(o$(er had (een shot do!n o+er Syria, $ost likely (y a KiEM and A. 5he #ussian Geet !as $o+ing through the Dardanelles. Een. Andre! Eoodpaster !as
reported to ha+e !orried that the conGuence o" e+ents -$ight trigger oL S the 2A5> operations plan1 that called "or a nuclear strike on the So+iet *nion.
7et, all o" these reports !ere "alse. 5he -9ets1 o+er 5urkey !ere a Gock o" s!ansM the So+iet KiEs o+er Syria !ere a s$aller, routine escort returning the
president "ro$ a state +isit to Kosco!M the (o$(er crashed due to $echanical diDcultiesM and the So+iet Geet !as (eginning long-scheduled e4ercises. 8n
an i$portant sense, these !ere not -coincidences1 (ut rather diLerent $ani"estations o" a co$$on "ailure N hu$an error resulting "ro$ e4tre$e tension
o" an international crisis. As one author noted, -5he detection and $isinterpretation o" these e+ents, against the conte4t o" !orld tensions "ro$ Hungary
and SueH, !as the frst $a9or e4a$ple o" ho! the siHe and co$ple4ity o" !orld!ide electronic !arning syste$s could, at certain critical ti$es, create
$o$entu$ o" its o!n.1 Perhaps $ost !orriso$e, the 6nited States mi"ht be blithel# unaware o the
de"ree to which the 4ussians were concerned a(out its actions and
inad%ertentl# escalate a crisis. During the early 1;=0s, the So+iet *nion suLered a $a9or -!ar scare1 during !hich
ti$e its leadership concluded that (ilateral relations !ere rapidly declining. 5his !ar scare !as dri+en in part (y the rhetoric o" the #eagan ad$inistration,
"ortifed (y the selecti+e reading o" intelligence. During this period, 2A5> conducted a $a9or co$$and post e4ercise, A(le Archer, that caused so$e
ele$ents o" the So+iet $ilitary to raise their alert status. A$erican oDcials !ere stunned to learn, a"ter the "act, that the :re$lin had (een acutely
ner+ous a(out an A$erican frst strike during this period.?F
NC Debris (!"e# Sa# Debris $ne%itable)
.he# conceded that debris are ine%itable .hat5s their 77777777
ar"ument .his is crucial because it disables the abilit# o an#
or"ani8ation to use space that is the Clark in 10 piece o e%idence
that is because there would be a shell o debris completel#
soundin" -arth .his acts as a one hundred percent sol%enc# take
out which #ou should ha%e a low threshold or %otin" or because o
concessions b# the 90C these are their own ar"uments
:ere5s some more e%idence increase o debris renders space
useless
(Wilder 10)
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&en9a$in, 3ieutenant Co$$ander, *nited States 2a+y, &.S., *ni+ersity o" South Ala(a$a, 2a+al Postgraduate School, 5hesis "or a Kaster o" Science in
Physics at the 2a+al Postgraduate School, Po!er &ea$ing, >r(ital De(ris #e$o+al, And >ther Space Applications >" A Eround &ased ree )lectron 3aser,
Karch 2010, httpJTTdodreports.co$Tpd"Tada?1=F;F.pd".
Considerin" the alarmin" rate o or(ital debris "eneration( the era o
mankind5s open and relati+ely simple access to space ma# be comin" to
an end , 0n# increase o" ra"mentation e%ents, such as through a "uture !ar !ith anti-satellite engage$ents or
si$ply "ro$ the continued collisions in cro!ded or(its, has the potential to render those orbits +irtually
useless "or generations to co$e. 8" the Chinese ASA5 engage$ent a(o+e generated U@,000 pieces o" de(ris, an anti-satellite !ar that destroys
only 10 satellites could i$$ediately dou(le the current de(ris population, and this large de(ris feld !ould spread o+er ti$e to other or(its 1near1 the
parent satellite. Currently, there are no progra$s "or the re$o+al o" space de(ris "ro$ or(it, and the 2ational Aeronautics and Space Ad$inistration
,2ASAB has only recently enacted guidelines to li$it the creation o" or(ital de(ris. 3ike!ise, the space debris problem will
not ;sol%e itsel< in the near uture, .he anticipated orbital lietime
o debris in the =001100 k$ range is on the order o 10(000 #ears V?2, p. ?<FW. 5he space tug concept
discussed in Chapter % $ay (e one $ethod to reduce the a$ount o" large de(ris, such as rocket (odies and non-"unctional spacecra"t, (y hauling these
ite$s into lo!er disposal or(its that e4perience higher at$ospheric drag. Si$ilarly, (y reducing the larger parent o(9ects, $uch o" the "uture
"rag$entation de(ris gro!th could (e a+oided. or s$aller de(ris, the $ost-pro$ising, near-ter$ $ethod o" de(ris re$o+al is through the illu$ination o"
de(ris clouds !ith a high energy laser to lo!er the perigee o" their or(its as proposed (y Pro9ect >rion.
01=( the# don5t assume the +essler S#ndrome plan causes a
positi%e eed back loop which onl# maks e%en more debris
(West et al, 0>)
/essica 'est, 'ade Huntley, #a$ /akhu, /ohn Sie(ert, #ay 'illia$son, Space Security 200;, httpJTT!!!.spacesecurity.orgTSS8200;.pd"W
5!o key "actors aLecting the a$ount o" space de(ris are the nu$(er o" o(9ects in or(it and the nu$(er o" de(ris-creating launches each year.
?rowth in the debris population increases the probabilit# o inter-debris
collisions that ha%e the potential to create e%en more debris. A recent study
(y 2ASA has sho!n that, in 3)>, inter-de(ris-de(ris collisions !ill (eco$e the do$inant source o" de(ris production !ithin the ne4t ?0 years. 0s
debris collides and multiplies( it will e%entuall# create a ;cascade o
collisions< that will spread debris to le%els threatenin" sustainable
space access,
NC Debris (!"e# Sa# Debris &ana'eable)
.he plan increases the amount o debris in orbit that5s a
concession b# the 90C it onl# becomes a &uestion o whether or
not debris poses a risk to usa"e o space -'tend the Clark in 9010
piece o e%idence debris destro#s the abilit# o -arth to use space
because * creates a shell o impermeable debris around -arth /ur
0uthor compares a collision with a piece o debris like a hand
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"renade e'plodin" ne't to the s#stem .his should be enou"h to
pro%e debris is detrimental to the use o space
:ere5s some more e%idence increase o debris renders space
useless
(Wilder 10)
&en9a$in, 3ieutenant Co$$ander, *nited States 2a+y, &.S., *ni+ersity o" South Ala(a$a, 2a+al Postgraduate School, 5hesis "or a Kaster o" Science in
Physics at the 2a+al Postgraduate School, Po!er &ea$ing, >r(ital De(ris #e$o+al, And >ther Space Applications >" A Eround &ased ree )lectron 3aser,
Karch 2010, httpJTTdodreports.co$Tpd"Tada?1=F;F.pd".
Considerin" the alarmin" rate o or(ital debris "eneration( the era o
mankind5s open and relati+ely simple access to space ma# be comin" to
an end , 0n# increase o" ra"mentation e%ents, such as through a "uture !ar !ith anti-satellite engage$ents or
si$ply "ro$ the continued collisions in cro!ded or(its, has the potential to render those orbits +irtually
useless "or generations to co$e. 8" the Chinese ASA5 engage$ent a(o+e generated U@,000 pieces o" de(ris, an anti-satellite !ar that destroys
only 10 satellites could i$$ediately dou(le the current de(ris population, and this large de(ris feld !ould spread o+er ti$e to other or(its 1near1 the
parent satellite. Currently, there are no progra$s "or the re$o+al o" space de(ris "ro$ or(it, and the 2ational Aeronautics and Space Ad$inistration
,2ASAB has only recently enacted guidelines to li$it the creation o" or(ital de(ris. 3ike!ise, the space debris problem will
not ;sol%e itsel< in the near uture, .he anticipated orbital lietime
o debris in the =001100 k$ range is on the order o 10(000 #ears V?2, p. ?<FW. 5he space tug concept
discussed in Chapter % $ay (e one $ethod to reduce the a$ount o" large de(ris, such as rocket (odies and non-"unctional spacecra"t, (y hauling these
ite$s into lo!er disposal or(its that e4perience higher at$ospheric drag. Si$ilarly, (y reducing the larger parent o(9ects, $uch o" the "uture
"rag$entation de(ris gro!th could (e a+oided. or s$aller de(ris, the $ost-pro$ising, near-ter$ $ethod o" de(ris re$o+al is through the illu$ination o"
de(ris clouds !ith a high energy laser to lo!er the perigee o" their or(its as proposed (y Pro9ect >rion.
01=( the# don5t assume the +essler S#ndrome plan causes a
positi%e eed back loop which onl# maks e%en more debris
(West et al, 0>)
/essica 'est, 'ade Huntley, #a$ /akhu, /ohn Sie(ert, #ay 'illia$son, Space Security 200;, httpJTT!!!.spacesecurity.orgTSS8200;.pd"W
5!o key "actors aLecting the a$ount o" space de(ris are the nu$(er o" o(9ects in or(it and the nu$(er o" de(ris-creating launches each year.
?rowth in the debris population increases the probabilit# o inter-debris
collisions that ha%e the potential to create e%en more debris. A recent study
(y 2ASA has sho!n that, in 3)>, inter-de(ris-de(ris collisions !ill (eco$e the do$inant source o" de(ris production !ithin the ne4t ?0 years. 0s
debris collides and multiplies( it will e%entuall# create a ;cascade o
collisions< that will spread debris to le%els threatenin" sustainable
space access,
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(!) S*ace is !oo +ast
Space isn5t ;.oo lar"e< to be efected b# debris recent collisions
pro%e we are reachin" a tippin" point where we can5t use space
(=unstan and S8oka 0>)
/a$es and &erin, practices space and technology la! at Ear+ey Schu(ert &arer., and Senior ello! at 5he Progress X reedo$ oundation, a Director o"
the Space rontier oundation, C&e!are o" space 9unkJ Elo(al 'ar$ing isnRt the only $a9or en+iron$ental pro(le$C
httpJTTspace"rontier.orgT200;T12T20T(e!are-o"-space-9unk-glo(al-!ar$ing-isnt-the-only-$a9or-en+iron$ental-pro(le$T
5he engineering !iHards !ho ha+e "ueled the 8n"or$ation #e+olution through the use o" satellites as co$$unications and in"or$ation-gathering tools also
o+erlooked the pollution they !ere causing. 5hey operated under the ;!i" Sk#< theor#@ Space is so %ast(
#ou don5t ha%e to worr# about cleanin" up a"ter yoursel". .he# were wron". /ust
last e(ruary, two satellites collided or the 3rst time( creatin" o+er 1(A00 new
pieces o $unk. Kany e'perts belie%e we are nearin" the ;tippin" point<
where these collisions will cascade ( makin" $any orbits unusable,
(!) &obilit#
Bobilit# is inefecti%e e%en i it can be done it drasticall# reduces
the lie o satellites
(-%erett 0C)
5erry, #epresentati+e o" Congress, Chair$an o" the House Ar$ed Ser+ice Co$$ittee, Strategic Studies Ouarterly, CArguing "or a Co$prehensi+e Space
Protection StrategyC!!!.au.a".$ilTauTssIT200<TallT)+erett.pd"
5he likely result is that the space shuttle ( the *nternational Space Station, and $any satellites in lo! )arth or(it
will need to e'pend precious uel to maneu%er around de(ris. At so$e point, our satellite
operators will determine the loss o ;mission lie< due to this e'tra
maneu%erin", .his could be a si8eable impact when we are talkin"
about multibillion-dollar satellites desi"ned or lietimes o 3%e to
10 #ears. 8n recent testi$ony (e"ore the Strategic orces Su(co$$ittee, Een /a$es cartwri"ht, co$- $ander, *S Strategic
co$$and, commented that ;we are "oin" to ha%e to make si"ni3cant
ad$ustments as collision, or, as !e call it, con9unction opportunities occur o%er the ne't 90-plus
#ears. . . . 5hat is going to ha+e an eLect on (usiness, on co$$erce. And it is going to ha+e an eLect on our national assets that are in lo! )arth
or(it.1?
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(!) &iti'ation ,--orts Sol%e
Biti"ation eforts don5t sol%e scienti3c consensus is that onl#
acti%e remo%al can limit
(0nsdell 10)
Kegan Ansdell, 10 Space Policy 8nstitute, E'*, Spring 2010 V/ournal o" Pu(lic and 8nternational ALairs, Princeton, +ol 21, p=W
8n light o" these threats, certain $easures ha+e (een taken to address the issue o" space de(ris. 8n particular, internationall#
adopted debris miti"ation "uidelines are reducin" the introduction
o new ra"ments into )arthRs or(it. :owe%er( there is a "rowin" consensus
within the space debris communit# that miti"ation is insuDcient to
constrain the or(iting debris population, and that ensurin" a sae uture or space
acti%ities will re&uire the de%elopment and deplo#ment o s#stems
that acti%el# remo%e debris rom -arth5s orbit. 5he frst-e+er 8nternational Con"erence on >r(ital
De(ris #e$o+al, held in Dece$(er 200; and co-hosted (y the 2ational Aeronautics and Space Ad$inistration ,2ASAB and De"ense Ad+anced #esearch
Pro9ects Agency ,DA#PAB, illustrated this gro!ing concern.Y
(!) S"ieldin' Sol%es
Shieldin" ails lar"er debris still penetrate shields
(0nsdell 10)
Kegan Ansdell, Space Policy 8nstitute, E'*, Spring 2010,/ournal o" Pu(lic and 8nternational ALairs, Princeton, +ol 21, p=W
5he $ost dangerous pieces o" space debris are those ran"in" in diameter rom one to ten
centimeters, o" !hich there are roughly @00,000 in or(it. .hese are lar"e enou"h to cause
serious dama"e ( #et current sensor net!orks cannot track them and there is no
practical method or shieldin" spacecrat a"ainst them , ConseIuently, this class
o" or(ital de(ris poses an in%isible threat to operating satellites ,'right 200<, @FB. =ebris lar"er than
ten centimeters, o" !hich there are roughly 1;,000 in or(it, can also incapacitate satellites (ut
they are large enough to (e tracked and thus potentially a+oided. De(ris s$aller than one centi$eter, in contrast, can- not (e tracked or a+oided, (ut can
(e protected against (y using relati+ely si$ple shielding ,'right 200<, @FB.
(!) Will .all /ut Naturall#
=ebris won5t ;Eall out< debris will sta# in ?-/
(.a#lor 0C)
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*SA &.A., &erry CollegeM /.D., *ni+ersity o" EeorgiaM 33.K. ,Air and Space 3a!B, KcEill *ni+ersity, is the Chie" o" the Space and 8nternational 3a! Di+ision
at HeadIuarters *nited States Air orce Space Co$$and at Peterson Air orce &ase in Colorado Springs, Colorado VKichael, CA#58C3)J 5rashing the Solar
Syste$ >ne Planet at a 5i$eJ )arth6s >r(ital De(ris Pro(le$C Eeorgeto!n 8nternational )n+iron$ental 3a! #e+ie! 20 Eeo. 8nt6l )n+tl. 3. #e+. 1W
*nlike 3)> satellites, !hich co$plete $any or(its in a day, satellites in E)> or(it )arth once a day. n@2 5he $ost "reIuently used type o" E)> is
geostationary, !hich is a circular or(it around the eIuator at an altitude o" @?,<=F kilo$eters. n@@ A geostationary satellite appears as a f4ed point to
o(ser+ers on the ground t!enty-"our hours a day. n@A Satellites in a geostationary or(it can CseeC nearly hal" o" the )arth, $aking this or(it especially
use"ul "or (roadcasting, !eather, and teleco$$unications satellites. n@? 'ithin the geostationary or(it, certain areas are $ore congested than others. or
e4a$ple, satellite operators $ust use relati+ely narro! (ands o" the or(it "or VZ<W a tele+ision (roadcasting satellite that can reach (oth the east and
!est coasts o" 2orth A$erica. or o(+ious reasons, satellites tend to cluster in these highly co+eted positions. n@F *n"ortunately, only a fnite nu$(er o"
satellites can use these regions (ecause satellites $ust $aintain separation "ro$ each other in order to a+oid (oth collisions and radio co$$unication
"reIuency inter"erence. n@< &ecause E)> is a li$ited natural resource in high de$and, the international co$$unity has created a uniIue legal regi$e,
ad$inistered (y the 8nternational 5eleco$$unications *nion, to deal !ith the congestion pro(le$. n@= )4perts esti$ate that or(ital de(ris in E)> !ill last
any!here "ro$ 1 $illion to 10 $illion years. n@; *nlike 3)>, atmospheric dra" will not naturall#
remo%e ob$ects in ?-/. 8nstead( the debris mo%es in an enormous
dou"hnut-shaped rin" around the e&uator as "ra%itational orces
pull on the ob$ects. nA0 Eunctionin" ?-/ satellites must constantl#
maneu%er to a%oid collisions with the debris( causin" problems or
satellite operators,
(!) Debris !oo Small
Small =ebris still dama"e %elocit# and lack o trackin" can take
down assets
(Wri"ht 0C)
Da+id 'right, *nion o" Concerned Scientists, Da+id 'right is a senior scientist and co-director o" the Elo(al Security Progra$ at the *nion o" Concerned
Scientists ,*CSB. He is an esta(lished e4pert on the technical aspects o" ar$s control, particularly those related to $issile de"ense syste$s, $issile
proli"eration, and space !eapons, >cto(er 200<, Physics 5oday %olu$e F0 8ssue 10 page @? pg online [
physicstoday.orgTresourceT1TphtoadT+F0Ti10Tp@?\s1T
=ebris between 1 mm and 1 cm in siHe can dama"e a satellite i" it hits a +ulnera(le
area. Shielding can protect against o(9ects o" that siHe, (ut adding shielding increases the cost (oth o" (uilding satellites and o" launching the$, and $any
satellites ha+e $ini$al shielding. =ebris lar"er than about 1 cm can seriousl# dama"e
or destro# a satellite in a collision( and there is no efecti%e
shieldin" a"ainst such particles, =ebris particles lar"er than 1 cm
but too small to be tracked are especiall# dan"erous because
satellites are unlikel# to ha%e warnin" to allow them to a%oid
collidin" with such ob$ects, De(ris larger than 10 c$ $ay (e $assi+e enough to create large a$ounts o" additional
de(ris in a collision !ith a satellite or another large piece o" de(ris.
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