University of Connecticut

Human Judgment and Decision Processes (PSYC 390)

Spring 2005


Professor: Dr. R. J ames Holzworth
Office: 137 Psychology Bldg.
Hours: Th 12:00-1:30 p.m.
Other times by appointment
Office Phone: 860-486-5728
Avery Point: 860-405-9029 (voice mail)
Email address: holz@uconn.edu

Text: Hastie, R., & Dawes, R. M. (2001). Rational choice in an uncertain world: The psychology
of judgment and decision making. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Additional reading assignments include journal articles and book chapters on reserve in the UConn
Psychology Center at the front of the Psychology Building.

Course Description

The course will begin with an overview of three major areas of judgment and decision making
(J DM) theory and application: decision theory, judgment theory, and judgmental heuristics and
biases. These areas will then be covered in much greater detail, in an attempt to elucidate, evaluate,
and critique theories and research methodologies. Attention will be given to decision analysis,
multiattribute evaluation, judgment analysis (policy capturing), clinical vs. actuarial models of
judgment, bootstrapping, biases in judgment, and common simplifying strategies often used when
making judgments and decisions. In addition to theory and technical aspects of methodology, class
discussion will focus on recent applications involving such decision makers as
industrial/organizational and clinical psychologists, psychiatrists, physicians, nurses, loan officers,
accountants, labor-management negotiators, and government planners.

Perhaps the major objective of this course is that students will begin to think seriously about
research concerning judgment and decision making and will carry away a sound proposal for an
interesting research project.


A conceptual understanding of analysis of variance and multiple regression analysis will be needed
to understand and use the research methodologies. Each student will be required to conduct a
decision analysis and a judgment analysis during the semester (each worth 25% of course grade).
An 8-10 page research proposal will also be required (25% of course grade). Fifteen percent (15%)
of the course grade will be based on a mid-semester exam concerning important concepts and
principles. Ten percent (10%) of the course grade will be based on class participation.



JDM Web Sites

Here are some web sites relevant to our course on judgment and decision making (J DM). Each has
quite a few additional links.

Society for Judgment and Decision Making web page: http://www.sjdm.org/

Brunswik Society web page: http://www.brunswik.org/

Student Conduct Reminder (mandatory)


According to the UConn Student Conduct Code, Responsibilities of Community Life: The Student
Code, available in booklet form and on the World Wide Web at
http://vm.uconn.edu/~dosa8/code2.html, Students are expected to conduct themselves in a manner
that is consistent with the values embraced by the University community and reflected in its various
policies, contracts, rules and regulations, including those contained herein. Academic misconduct,
particularly cheating and plagiarism, will not be condoned.

The following quotation comes from the Preamble of the Student Code:

The spirit of inquiry can only flourish in an environment of mutual trust and respect, and
that environment cannot be limited to the classroom or to the lab. Each member of the
community must have the opportunity to participate fully in the process of learning and
understanding if the community as a whole is to remain strong and vital. Therefore, all
members must accept responsibility for creating an environment that promotes individual
growth and builds community through the safe, respectful exchange of diverse thought,
opinion, and feeling.


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University of Connecticut
Human Judgment and Decision Processes (PSYC 390)
Spring 2005

Professor: Dr. R. J ames Holzworth
Office: 137 Psychology Bldg.
Hours: Th 12:00-1:30 p.m.
Other times by appointment
Office Phone: 860-486-5728
Avery Point: 860-405-9029 (voice mail)
Email address: holz@uconn.edu

Text: Hastie, R., & Dawes, R. M. (2001). Rational choice in an uncertain world: The psychology
of judgment and decision making. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Additional reading assignments include journal articles and book chapters on reserve in the UConn
Psychology Center at the front of the Psychology Building.

Course Outline

J an. 20

Introduction to course and professor
Hand out assignments and discuss course exercises
Discussion concerning judgment, decision making, and rationality
J elly Beans and the three door problem

J an. 27 Judgment and decision research: Some historical context
Hastie & Dawes (2001) Chapter 1 Thinking and deciding
Hastie & Dawes (2001) Appendix: Basic principles of probability theory

Feb. 3 Signal detection and irreducible error
Kaufman (1974, pp. 76-81) for a tiny bit of biology
Swets (1988). Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems
Introduction to Bayesian statistics (handouts)

Feb. 10 Decision analysis
Hastie & Dawes (2001) Chapter 2 What is decision making?
Edwards & Barron (1994) SMARTS and SMARTER
Inform Holzworth about choice of problem for decision analysis, including a
tentative list of options and attributes.

Feb. 17 Social judgment theory and methods
Hastie & Dawes (2001) Chapter 3 A general framework for judgment
Holzworth (2001) J udgment analysis
Goldstein (2004) Social judgment theory: Applying and extending Brunswiks
probabilistic functionalism.


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Feb. 24 Social judgment theory and methods continued
Cooksey (1996b) The methodology of social judgment theory
Doherty & Brehmer (1997) The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment
Submit topic for judgment analysis, including a table of task characteristics
(cues and cue levels).

Mar. 3 Heuristics and biases
Hastie & Dawes (2001) Chapter 4 J udgments from memory; Chapter 5 Anchoring;
Chapter 6 J udgment by similarity; Chapter 7 J udging by scenario and explanation
Decision analysis due

Mar. 5-13 Spring Break

Mar. 17 In-class exam concerning what weve covered so far.

Mar. 24 Coherence and correspondence theories in judgment and decision making
Hammond (2000) Coherence and correspondence theories in judgment and decision
making
Hammond (1996, Chapters 6 & 7) Reducing rivalry through compromise
Submit one-page outline of research proposal, including IVs and DVs.

Mar. 31 Misconception about chance
Hastie & Dawes (2001) Chapter 8 Thinking about randomness and causation
Hastie & Dawes (2001) Chapter 9 Thinking rationally about uncertainty

Apr. 7 Normative, rational decision theory
Hastie & Dawes (2001) Chapter 10 Evaluating consequences: Simple values
Hastie & Dawes (2001) Chapter 11 Complex values and attitudes
Hastie & Dawes (2001) Chapter 12 A normative, rational decision theory
Judgment analysis due

Apr. 14 Behavioral decision theory
Hastie & Dawes (2001) Chapter 13 A descriptive, psychological decision theory
Gigerenzer (2004) Fast and frugal heuristics: The tools of bounded rationality.
SIOP Meeting in Los Angeles, April 15-17 (Workshops 4/14)

Apr. 21 Behavioral decision theory (more on heuristics and biases)
Kahneman & Tversky (1996) On the reality of cognitive illusions
Gigerenzer (1996) On narrow norms and vague heuristics

Apr. 28 In praise of uncertainty
Hastie & Dawes (2001) Chapter 14 In praise of uncertainty
Research proposal due

May 2-7 Final Exam Week
No Final Exam
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Readings on Human Judgment and Decision Processes

Beach, L. R. (1996). Decision making in the workplace: A unified perspective. Mahwah, NJ :
Lawrence Erlbaum.
Beach, L. R. (1998). Image theory: Theoretical and empirical foundations. Mahwah, NJ :
Lawrence Erlbaum.
Behn, R.D., & Vaupel, J .W. (1982). Quick analysis for busy decision makers. New York: Basic
Books.
Behn, R.D., & Vaupel, J .W. (1983). Quick analysis: Analytical thinking for busy decision makers.
Management Review, September, 26-28,37.
Biederman, I., & Shiffrar, M. M. (1987). Sexing day-old chicks: A case study and expert systems
analysis of a difficult perceptual-learning task. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning,
Memory, and Cognition, 13, 640-645.
Brehmer, B. (1988). The development of social judgment theory. In B. Brehmer, & C. R. B. J oyce,
(Eds.). Human judgment: The SJT view, Chapter 1. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Brehmer, A. & Brehmer, B. (1988). What have we learned about human judgment from thirty years
of policy capturing? In B. Brehmer, & C. R. B. J oyce, (Eds.). Human judgment: The SJT view,
Chapter 3. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Connolly, T., Arkes, H. A., & Hammond, K. R. (2000). Judgment and decision making: An
interdisciplinary reader (second edition). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Cooksey, R. W. (1996a). Judgment analysis: Theory, methods, and applications. San Diego:
Academic Press
Cooksey, R. W. (1996b). The methodology of social judgement theory. Thinking and Reasoning,
2, (2/3), 141-173.
Dalgleish, L. I. (1988). Decision making in child abuse cases: Applications of social judgment
theory and signal detection theory. In B. Brehmer and C. B. R. J oyce (Eds.), Human judgment:
The SJT view. North-Holland: Elsevier Science.
Dawes, R. M. (1988). Rational choice in an uncertain world. New York: Harcourt Brace
J ovanovich.
Dawes, R. M. (1998). Behavioral decision making and judgment. In D. T. Gilbert, S. T. Fiske, &
G. Lindzey (Eds.), The handbook of social psychology (4th edition, volume I, pp.497-548).
New York: McGraw-Hill.
Dawes, R. M., Faust, D. & Meehl, P.E. (1989). Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science, 243,
1668-1674.0.
Degani, A. (2003). Taming HAL: designing human interfaces beyond 2001. New York, NY:
Palgrave-Mcmillan.
Doherty, M. E., & Brehmer, B. (1997). The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment. In
W. M. Goldstein & R. M. Hogarth (Eds.), Research on judgment and decision making:
Currents, contents, and controversies (pp. 537-551). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University
Press.
Doherty, M. E., & Kurz, E. (1996). Social judgement theory. Thinking and Reasoning, 2, (2/3),
109-140.
Edwards, W. & Barron, F. H. (1994). SMARTS and SMARTER: Improved simple methods for
multiattribute utility measurement. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,
60, 306-325.
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Edwards, W., & von Winterfeldt, D. (1986). On cognitive illusions and their implications. In H.
R. Arkes & K. R. Hammond, (Eds.), Judgment and decision making: An interdisciplinary
reader. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Gardiner, P. C., & Edwards, W. (1975). Public values: Multiattribute-utility measurement for social
decision making. In M. F. Kaplan & S. Schwartz (Eds.), Human judgment and decision
processes. New York: Academic Press.
Gigerenzer, G. (1996). On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky
(1996). Psychological Review, 103, 592-596.
Gigerenzer, R. (2004). Fast and frugal heuristics: The tools of bounded rationality. In D. J .
Koehler, & N. Harvey (Eds.), Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision-making (pp. 64-
88). Malden, MA: Blackwell.
Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M., & ABC Research Group (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart.
New York: Oxford University Press.
Goldstein, W. M. (2004). Social judgment theory: Applying and extending Brunswiks
probabilistic functionalism. In D. J . Koehler, & N. Harvey (Eds.), Blackwell handbook of
judgment and decision-making (pp. 37-61). Malden, MA: Blackwell.
Goldstein, W. M., & Hogarth, R. M. (1997). J udgment and decision research: Some historical
context. In W. M. Goldstein & R. M. Hogarth (Eds.), Research on judgment and decision
making: Currents, contents, and controversies (pp. 3-65). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge
University Press.
Hammond, K. R. (1996). Human judgment and social policy: Irreducible uncertainty, inevitable
error, unavoidable injustice. New York: Oxford University Press.
Hammond, K. R. (1999). Judgments under stress. New York: Oxford University Press.
Hammond, K.R. (2000). Coherence and correspondence theories in judgment and decision
making. In T. Connolly, H. A. Arkes, & K. R. Hammond (Eds.), Judgment and decision
making: An interdisciplinary reader (second edition) (pp. 53-65). New York: Cambridge
University Press.
Hammond, K. R., & Adelman, L. (1976). Science, values, and human judgment. Science, 194, 389-
396.
Hammond, K. R., Hamm, R. M., Grassia, J ., & Pearson, T. (1987). Direct comparison of the
efficacy of intuitive and analytic cognition in expert judgment. IEEE Transactions on Systems,
Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-17(5), 753-770.
Hammond, K. R., Harvey, L. O., & Hastie, R. (1992). Making better use of scientific knowledge:
Separating truth from justice. Psychological Science, 3, 80-87.
Hammond, K. R., & Stewart, T. R. (Eds.). (2000). The essential Brunswik: Beginnings,
explications, applications. New York: Oxford University Press.
Harvey, L.O., J r. (1992). The critical operating characteristic and the evaluation of expert opinion.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53, 229-251.
Hastie, R., & Dawes, R. M. (2001). Rational choice in an uncertain world: The psychology of
judgment and decision making. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Holzworth, R. J . (1996). Policy capturing with ridge regression. Organizational Behavior and
Human Decision Processes, 68, 171-179.
Holzworth, R. J . (2001). J udgment analysis. In K. R. Hammond & T. R. Stewart (Eds.), The
essential Brunswik: Beginnings, explications, applications (pp. 324-327). New York: Oxford
University Press.
J uslin, P., & Montgomery, H. (1999). Judgment and decision making: Neo-Brunswikian and
process tracing approaches. Mahwah, NJ : Lawrence Erlbaum.
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J ungermann, H. (1983). The two camps on rationality. In R. W. Scholz (Ed.), Decision making
under uncertainty. Amsterdam: Elsevier. Pp. 63-86.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1996). On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review,
103, 582-591.
Kaufman, L. (1974). Sight and mind: An introduction to visual perception. New York: Oxford
University Press.
Keeney, R. L. (1979). Decision analysis: How to cope with increasing complexity. Management
Review, September, 24-40.
Keeney, R. L. (1982). Decision analysis: An overview. Operations Research, 30, 803-838.
Keren, G. (1996). Perspectives of behavioral decision making: Some critical notes. Organizational
Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 169-178.
Koehler, D. J ., & Harvey, N. (2004). Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision-making.
Malden, MA: Blackwell.
Len, O. G. (1997). On the death of SMART and the birth of GRAPA. Organizational Behavior
and Human Decision Processes, 71, 249-262.
Levin, I.P., Schneider, S. L., & Gaeth, G. J . (1998). All frames are not created equal: A typology
and critical analysis of framing effects. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision
Processes, 76, 149-188.
Soman, D. (2004). Framing, loss aversion, and mental accounting. In D. J . Koehler, & N. Harvey
(Eds.), Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision-making (pp. 379-398). Malden, MA:
Blackwell.
Stewart, T. R. (1988). J udgment analysis: Procedures. In B. Brehmer, & C. R. B. J oyce, (Eds.).
Human judgment: The SJT view, Chapter 2. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Stewart, T. R., Roebber, P. J ., & Bosart, L. F. (1997). The importance of the task in analyzing
expert judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process, 69, 205-219.
Swets, J . A. (1988). Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science, 240, 1285-1293.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice.
Science, 211, 453-458.
Wu, G., Zhang, J ., & Gonzales, R. (2004). Decision under uncertainty. In D. J . Koehler, & N.
Harvey (Eds.), Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision-making (pp. 399-423). Malden,
MA: Blackwell.


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