RAVENS EFFICIENT ON OFFENSE, DEFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS

The Ravens quickly became advanced metrics darlings during the early portion of this
season. During their road to leading the NFL in point differential (plus-89), the gurus who
track overall value catapulted Baltimore into the upper-echelon of NFL teams. Football
Outsiders utilizes the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks
down every single NFL play and compares a teams performance to a league baseline
based on situation in order to determine value over average. Through those rankings,
Baltimore finds itself second in the league in overall efficiency on offense, defense and
special teams. Recent struggles slid the Bengals back to 13th. Here are the current DVOA
rankings:
One game can cause a significant change in where a team falls in regards to DVOA, partic-
ularly one as statistically heinous as the Bengals loss to the Colts. Cincinnati dropped from
fifth in the DVOA rankings last week to 13th this week.
VICTORY OVER RAVENS WOULD ENHANCE PLAYOFF POSSIBILITY
Attempting to place a quantity on the importance of this game can be challenging. Very
tall casinos are paid for by those attempting to predict how the final nine weeks of an NFL
season will play out. The folks at fivethirtyeight.com, however, put together a formula
ranking each team against the average in order to quantify what each game on the
schedule means in regards to the others. They currently project the Bengals as having
a 55.8 percent chance of making the playoffs this year. This Sundays game against Balti-
more, however, could swing that number 27.2 points depending on the result. That swing
number for Cincinnati ranks as the highest of any game on the NFL slate this weekend:
In the end, it is little more than mathematical gymnastics, but does reiterate the long-view
importance of this weeks outcome.
DEN BAL GB SEA IND PHI DAL SD KC MIA NE DET CIN PIT
48.7
28.5
26.1
22.7
19.4
14.5
13.7 13.2
9.9
6.8
5.7
5.2
2.7
2.2
If the
Bengals
lose
Current
Bengals
chances
If the
Bengals
win
39.8
%
55.8
%
67.0
%
advanced
analytics
AP/NICK WASS
Mohamed Sanu
12 WR 6-2 210 3
Brandon Tate
19 WR 6-1 195 6
Andrew Whitworth
77 LT 6-7 335 9
Clint Boling
65 LG 6-5 310 4
Russell Bodine
61 C 6-3 306 R
Kevin Zeitler
68 RG 6-4 315 3
Andre Smith
71 RT 6-4 340 6
Jermaine Gresham
84 TE 6-5 260 5
Ryan Hewitt
89 HB 6-4 254 R
Andy Dalton
14 QB 6-2 220 4
Giovani Bernard
25 RB 5-9 208 2
Carlos Dunlap
96 DE 6-6 280 5
Geno Atkins
97 DT 6-1 303 5
Domata Peko
94 DT 6-3 322 9
Wallace Gilberry
92 DE 6-2 275 7
Emmanuel Lamur
59 LB 6-4 240 3
Vinny Rey
57 LB 6-0 255 4
Vontaze Burfct
55 LB 6-1 248 3
Leon Hall
29 CB 5-11 195 8
Terence Newman
23 CB 5-10 197 12
George Iloka
43 S 6-4 220 3
Reggie Nelson
20 S 5-11 210 8
PROBABLE OFFENSE
PROBABLE DEFENSE
cincinnati
starters
Torrey Smith
82 WR 6-0 205 4
Steve Smith Sr.
89 WR 5-9 195 14
Eugene Monroe
60 LT 6-5 300 6
Kelechi Osemele
72 LF 6-5 330 3
Jeremy Zuttah
53 C 6-4 300 7
Marshal Yanda
73 RB 6-5 305 8
Rick Wagner
71 RT 6-6 310 2
Crockett Gillmore
80 TE 6-6 251 1
Joe Flacco
6 QB 6-6 245 7
Kyle Juszczy
44 FB 6-1 248 2
Justin Forsett
29 RB 5-8 197 7
Haloti Ngata
92 DT 6-4 340 9
Brandon Williams
98 NT 6-1 335 2
DeAngelo Tyson
93 DE 6-2 315 3
Terrell Suggs
55 OLB 6-3 260 12
C.J. Mosley
57 ILB 6-2 235 R
Daryl Smith
51 ILB 6-2 250 11
Courtney Upshaw
91 Sam 6-2 272 3
Lardarius Webb
21 CB 5-10 182 6
Matt Elam
26 S 5-10 200 2
Darian Stewart
24 S 5-11 214 5
Jimmy Smith
22 CB 6-2 209 4
PROBABLE OFFENSE
PROBABLE DEFENSE
baltimore
starters
THE ENQUIRER /// SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2014 I3