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Impact of the Surge in Chinese Import on Indian Manufacturing Sector

Jitender Singh
Assistant Director
RESEARCH STUDIES
OFFICE OF THE ECONOMIC ADVISER
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY AND PROMOTION
MINISTRY OF COMMERCE & INDUSTRY
UDYOG BHAWAN, NEW DELHI
INDIA
July, 2012
Views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and may not be attributed to the
Government of India.
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Acknowledgement
This Study would not have been possible without the help of a number of people
who with their k ind cooperation, active supervision and steadf ast support have made
this research work reality.
I am extremely grateful to Principal Adviser Dr. Manjula Krishnan, whose k een
continuous encouragement and suggestions helped to complete this work .
I am thank ful to Shri Srik ara Naik , Economic Adviser and Shri M.C. Singhi, Senior
Economic Adviser for his valuable comments and encouragement to complete this work . I
also extend my sincere gratitude to Ms. Manisha Meena, Assistant Director for sharing
her valuable thoughts and helping in understanding the data. I also thank Shri Purohit,
Economic Officer who provided the data support.
Place:
Date: Jitender Singh
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Impact of the Surge in Chinese Import on Indian Manufacturing Sector
Abstract
Indian import trend reported a surge in recent past few years, possibly because
of cheap import of Chinese manuf acturing goods. The trade def icit with China is also
rising along with rising request for introducing anti dumping measures against Chinese
import. These trend points the need to check the profile of import from China and its
relation with our domestic manuf acturing production structure. The major question
addressed in this research study is: How are trends in import from China associated
w ith import and manufacturing in specif ic industry sub-group in India?
A concordance between Indian Trade Clarif ication based on Harmoniz ed System
(ITC-HS) Code and National Industry Classif ication (NIC) at 5 digit level is developed for
last 7 years for 268 items of IIP (Index of Industrial Production) and import, and
separately with import from China. The indices for the import, IIP (268 items) and
industry subgroups have been constructed. The export index (used same methodology
and concordance) is tak en from an earlier Study by Singhi, M.C. 2011.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for 268 items, Index for Import from all
countries (Import Index from now) and Index for Export has grown respectively by 107.8
%, 1773.1 %, and 143.4% in 2010-11 over the base of 2004-05. The Chinese import
index (Chinese index from now) for same items has grown by 4618.4% in 2010-11 over
the base 2005-06, which is much higher than the import index. The share of the imports
of 268 items from China in total imports from China to India has jumped to 41.3% in
2010-11 from 26.3% in 2005-06.
There are enough evidence to suspect that import to India from countries other
than China are now increasingly been replaced by cheap Chinese import. Therefore the
import to India is progressively concentrating with China. Broadly the Basic Goods and
the Intermediate Goods sectors seem
to be negatively affected from the cheap Chinese import. However, across
industry sub-group there are number of products having negatively impacted by Chinese
import.
The large import from China are noticed in industry sub-group of radio, television
and communication equipment , followed by Machinery and equipment , office
accounting and computing machinery , other transport equipment , electrical machinery
and apparatus , Basic Metals , Fabricated metal products, except machinery ,
Chemical and chemical products , motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers , and rubber
and plastic products.
***
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Impact of the Surge in Chinese import on Indian Manufacturing
INTRODUCTION
Th e t r en d in impor t s t o In dia s h ows a s u r ge in ch ea p Ch in es e impor t s of
ma n u fa ct u r in g goods t o In dia , a ccu mu la t ion in In dia s t r a de deficit wit h Ch in a
a n d r is in g r equ es t for in t r odu cin g a n t i du mpin g mea s u r es a ga in s t Ch in es e
impor t s poin t s t h e n eed t o ch eck t h e pr ofile of impor t s fr om Ch in a a n d it s
r ela t ion wit h ou r domes t ic ma n u fa ct u r in g pr odu ct ion s t r u ct u r e. Th e ma jor
question this research study attempt to address is: How trends in imports from
China are associated with manufacturing production in India?
Th e ma s s ive diver s ified ma n u fa ct u r in g ca pa cit y cr ea t ion in Ch in a du r in g
r ecen t pa s t h a s r es u lt ed in domes t ic ma r ket s u r plu s es of ma n u fa ct u r ed
pr odu ct s . Th e h u n t for n ew ma r ket s ou t s ide t o du mp t h is glu t pr odu ct ion is
well ca pt u r ed in t h e s t a t is t ics . Ch in a s s h a r e in wor ld expor t s bet ween 2000
a n d 2010 increas ed by 6.5 per cen t a ge poin t s compa r ed t o In dia n just 0.8
per cen t a ge poin t s . Ar ou n d h a lf of t h is t ot a l in cr ea s e in t h e Ch in a s share is
with emer gin g a n d developin g cou n t r ies wh ile for In dia it is on ly 6 per cen t of
the t ot a l in cr ea s e (Econ omic Su r vey, 2011-12). Th e ea s y t a r get for Ch in es e
expor t s is it s pr oximit y t o In dia wh er e ma n u fa ct u r in g s ect or is s t r u gglin g t o
impr ove it s r ela t ive s t r en gt h in t h e econ omy (ma n u fa ct u r in g s h a r e in GDP is
s t a gn a n t ) a n d expor t of ma n u fa ct u r in g goods is la den on t h e s ma ll s ca le s ect or
or based on the use of imported raw materials. A rising input requirements for
in du s t r y a n d ma n u fa ct u r in g goods dema n d in In dia is r eflect ed in in cr ea s e in
the Non-POL non-bullion imports i.e. by 29.3 per cent in 2010-11.
China h a s become t h e la r ges t s ou r ce of In dia n impor t s wit h a n 11.7 per
cen t s h a r e in it s t ot a l impor t s . In dia s low expor t / impor t r a t io (0.45 in 2010-
11) wit h Ch in a is r es u lt in g in h u ge t r a de deficit . Tr a de deficit of In dia wit h
China have in cr ea s ed fr om US$ 19.2 billion in 2009-10 t o US$ 23.9 billion in
2010-11 indicating the surge in imports from China.
Ch ea p Ch in es e impor t s h a ve a ls o s u r ged in Afr ica , US a n d La t in
Amer ica n Cou n t r ies . Ch in a beca me bigges t t r a din g pa r t n er of Sou t h Afr ica in
a s h or t s pa n of t ime. Th e Ch in es e expor t s t o Sou t h Afr ica es pecia lly in textile
sector, a r e bu llyin g loca l in du s t r ies in Sou t h Afr ica . In Br a zil in du s t r ia l ou t pu t
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is a ls o get t in g a dver s ely impa ct ed fr om impor t s fr om Ch in a bes ides du e t o the
sluggish global economy.
In t h is ba ckdr op t h e mos t obviou s qu es t ion s likely t o be r a is ed a r e: why
is there a surge in exp ort from China to India in recent year? Whether
China s manufacturing is acquiring comp etitiveness over the time
compared to India? The outward oriented growth in Chinese economy may be
t h e r ea s on t o boos t t h e expor t a n d t h er efor e s u r ge of impor t s t o In dia . Or
Whether Indian manufacturing is losing its comp etitiveness against
China? On e ma y s u s pect a bou t los s of compet it iven es s of Indian
Manufacturing in past few years, primarily due to fast rising cost of production,
and infrastructure bottlenecks.
Or Is there any unfair p lay by the China to dump the glut in India?
Th e u n fa ir pr a ct ices s u ch a s du mpin g of s u bs t a n da r d glu t pr odu ct ion in t o
India from China also seems to partially responsible for surge in import. In dia s
anti-dumping in it iat ion s in cr ea s ed t o 55 in 2008, fell t o 31 in 2009, bu t a ga in
in cr ea s ed t o 41 in 2010. The main cou n t r ies in volved in t h es e in ves t iga t ion s
a r e Kor ea RP, Ch in es e, Ta ipei (Taiwan), etc.. Or Are imp ort from other than
China to India is getting rep laced by Chinese imp ort? It ma y be pos s ible
t h a t t h e impor t fr om cou n t r ies ot h er t h a n Ch in a t o In dia is in cr ea s in g bein g
replaced by cheap Chinese import.
Th e los s of compet it iven es s by t h e In dian in du s t r y a n d t h e u n fa ir pla y, if
any, are the most important questions to be answered first. If the answer is yes
for on e or bot h , t h en cer t a in ly it wou ld ca r r y t h e pot en t ia l t o ca u s e in ju r y t o
t h e In dia n ma n u fa ct u r in g in s h or t a n d lon g r u n . Th is s t u dy is a pr elimin a r y
investigation to look into the questions.
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY:
(i). To iden t ify t h e in du s t r y s u b-group, a n d pr odu ct s wh er e t h e impor t ,
especially form Chinese, is impacting t h e domes t ic manufacturing
production;
(ii). To iden t ify t h e in du s t r y s u bgr ou p, a n d pr odu ct s wh er e t h e impor t fr om
China is replacing the import to India from countries other than China;
DATA SOURCES & METHODOLOGY
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The data of industrial production for 268 items is sourced from the Office
of t h e Econ omic Advis er , Depa r t men t of In du s t r ia l Pr odu ct ion & Policy (DIPP),
Min is t r y of Commer ce & In du s t r y. Th e da t a on expor t s a n d impor t s is t a ken
from the Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce & Industry. The data
on impor t , expor t a n d domes t ic pr odu ct ion for 268 it ems is synchronized by a
con cor da n ce bet ween t h e ITC (HS) code and NIC Cla s s ifica t ion of in du s t r ia l
Pr odu ct ion a t 5 Digit level. Ea ch HS code it em for impor t is regrouped against
it s r es pect ive domes t ic in du s t r ia l pr odu ct ion a t NIC-5 digit code. Th e impor t
fr om Ch in a for t h e 268 it ems h a s a ls o been h a r mon ized in t o t h e NIC
cla s s ifica t ion a t 5 digit level. The s t u dy cover s a period of s even yea r s 2004-05
to 2010-11.
Even a ft er con cor da n ce, t h e figu r e for impor t , expor t a n d domes t ic
industrial production may not directly be comparable. The domestic production
figures for the 268 items are reported in different units e.g. tones, rupee crores,
met er s et c., a n d ma y n ot be dir ect ly compa r a ble wit h on e a n ot h er a n d wit h
impor t figu r es . Th e impor t figu r es h owever , a r e a va ila ble u n ifor mly in va lu e
t er ms a n d t h er efor e ca r r y effect of t h e in fla t ion , wh ich ma y be abs en t fr om
ma n y of t h e domes t ic pr odu ct ion figu r es r epor t ed in t er ms of ph ys ica l ou t pu t .
Th er efor e t h e in dices a r e con s t r u ct ed for t h e domes t ic pr odu ct ion a n d impor t
to make these comparable.
Th e in dex of t h e impor t is defla t ed wit h t h e a ppr opr ia t e pr ice in dex
con s t r u ct ed fr om t h e Wh oles a le Pr ice In dex (WPI) t o elimin a t e t h e in fla t ion
effect on impor t . Simila r ly, for t h e it ems wh er e domes t ic pr odu ct ion is r epor t ed
in va lu e t er ms , t h e s a me is defla t ed wit h a ppr opr ia t e pr ice in dices . Th e u s e-
ba s ed in dices a r e defla t ed wit h t h e over a ll WPI in dex for t h e 268 it ems . Th e
fin a l in dices for expor t for 2004-11 a r e t a ken fr om a n ea r lier Res ea r ch St u dy
by Mr . M.C. Sin gh i, Sr . Econ omic Advis er , 2011, for Office of t h e Econ omic
Adviser.
Th es e 268 it ems a ccou n t for 60.4% weigh t in t h e ma n u fa ct u r in g s ect or
a n d 45.6% weigh t in t h e over a ll In dex of In du s t r ia l Pr odu ct ion (IIP). Th e
cover a ge of DIPP a t br oa d gr ou ps of ma n u fa ct u r in g va r ies fr om a low of 1.1%
for manufacture of coke, r efin ed pet r oleu m pr odu ct s a n d n u clea r fu el t o
100% in 15 groups (Singhi, M.C. 2011).
LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY:
Th e s t u dy cover s on ly 45.6% of t h e weigh t s of IIP, 268 DIPP it ems , for
wh ich t h e pr odu ct ion da t a is a va ila ble wit h t h e Depa r t men t of In du s t r ia l
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Pr odu ct ion & Pr omot ion (DIPP). Th er efor e a ll t h e limit a t ion s of IIP a r e in h er en t
in the analysis.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for 268 Items
The 268 items accounted for 23 % of the total Import to India in 2010-11
a n d 45.6 % of t h e In dex of In du s t r ia l Pr odu ct ion . Th e in dices of IIP (268
it ems ), Impor t a n d Expor t respectively h a ve gr own t o 207.8, 1873.1, a n d 243.4
in 2010-11 over t h e ba s e of 2004-05 (Table-1). Th e impor t h a s been gr owin g
consistently above the growth of IIP and the Export. In 2010-11 there is a surge
in t h e impor t gr owt h . Th e con s is t en t a n d r ela t ively h igh impor t gr owt h h a s led
t o in cr ea s e in t h e s h a r e of 268 it ems impor t in t ot a l impor t t o 27% in 2008-09
and 23% in 2010-11 (Table- 29 in Annexure).
Table 1. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) (268 items), Import and Export Indices and Growth
Year IIP
Index

IMP
Index
Export
Index*
Growth
2004-05

100 100 100 IIP Import Export
Index of
Chinese
Imports

Share of 268
items in total
imports from
China
2005-06

114.7

199.2 116.5 14.7 99.2 16.5 100.0

26.3
2006-07

132.1

235.6 138.2 15.2 18.2 18.6 2330.0

25.5
2007-08

176.5

319.7 144.8 33.6 35.7 4.8 1560.4

33.9
2008-09

178.7

432.4 205.2 1.2 35.3 41.7 3033.3

39.7
2009-10

187.0

607.4 179.3 4.6 40.5 -12.6 1235.4

42.9
2010-11

207.8

1873.1 243.4 11.1 208.4 35.8 4718.4

41.3
* Export Index is taken from the Research Study by Mr. M.C. Singhi, Sr. Economic Adviser, 2011, for Office of
the Economic Adviser.

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Th e in dex of impor t fr om Ch in a (Ch in es e In dex fr om n ow) for 268 it ems
h a s gr own even fa s t er t o 4718.4 in 2010-11 over t h e ba s e of 2005-06,
compa r ed t o in dex of impor t fr om a ll cou n t r ies (Impor t In dex fr om n ow). Th is
ma mmot h gr owt h in Ch in es e In dex fr om pa s t s ix yea r s h a s been con s ider a bly
h igh er t h a n t h e Impor t In dex. Th er efor e, t h e Ch in es e impor t s h a r e of t h es e
it ems in t ot a l Ch in es e impor t s is ju mped t o 41.3% in 2010-11 fr om 26.3% in
2005-06. Th is in dica t es t h a t In dia is pr ogr es s ively s ou r cin g impor t s of t h es e
it ems fr om Ch in a t h er efor e t h e impor t fr om cou n t r ies ot h er t h a n Ch in a a r e
now increasingly being replaced by Chinese imports in these selected items.
USE BASED CLASSIFICATION
As per t h e Use-based cla s s ifica t ion of IIP (268 it ems ), t h e impor t s h a r e of
t h e Ca pit a l Goods is la r ges t (8.8% in 2010-11), followed by Con s u mer Goods
(6.5% a n d in t er media t e goods (4.7%), a n d Ba s ic Goods (2.9%) (Table 29. in
Annexure).
Basic Goods
Th e va lu e of t h e IIP of Ba s ic Goods h a s gr own t o 168.4 in 2010-11 over
the base 2004-05 (Table 2). Comparatively the Import Index has grown to 534.6
du r in g s a me per iod. Th e Ch in es e In dex h owever , h a s gr own even fa s t er to
4307.4 in 2010-11 over t h e ba s e of 2005-06 t h a n Impor t In dex a n d IIP. Th e
s h a r e of t h e Ba s ic goods it ems in t h e t ot a l Ch in es e impor t , h owever r ema in
a lmos t s t a gn a n t . Ma jor Ba s ic Goods , in t er ms of va lu e, impor t ed fr om Ch in a
are Alu min u m, Copper a n d Copper Pr odu ct s , Alu min u m Sh eet s / Pla t es ,
Aluminum Foils, Carbon Black, Wires (Copper), and Cement All Kinds.
The Ch in a s s h a r e in t ot a l impor t t o In dia for the C.I. Ca s t in gs ,
Alu min iu m Foils , Alu min iu m wir es & ext r u s ion s , Alu min iu m s heets/Plates,
An ilin e, Ca r bon Bla ck, Cemen t All Kin ds , Alu min iu m, Su lph u r ic Acid In cl.
Oleum, Copper and Copper Products etc increased considerably in 2006-09 but
moderated thereafter. The period, 2006-09, is of high industrial growth in India
wh ich migh t s u bs t a n t ia t e t h a t t h e h igh domes t ic in du s t r ia l gr owt h is
increasingly fueled by larger import of basic goods from China.

Table 2. Basic Goods

Year
IIP Index IMP Index Chinese Import
2004-05
100 100
Growth IMP Growth
Index Share
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2005-06 113.6 158.0 13.6 58.0 100.0 1.5
2006-07 122.6 279.5 7.9 76.9 2060.2 1.7
2007-08 140.3 395.8 14.4 41.6 3515.4 2.0
2008-09 147.1 697.3 4.9 76.2 2302.7 1.8
2009-10 161.0 499.9 9.5 -28.3 3204.0 1.5
2010-11 168.4 534.6 4.6 6.9 4307.4 1.6
Capital Goods
Th e in dex of ca pit a l goods in du s t r y h a s gr own t o 138.6 in 2010-11 over
t h e ba s e of 2004-05 compa r ed t o Impor t in dex 565.5 du r in g t h e s a me per iod
(Table 3). Th e domes t ic pr odu ct ion of t h e ca pit a l goods declin ed in du r in g t h e
2008-09, the crisis time, however, the imports growth jumped to 43.4%. Later,
t h e gr owt h of t h e impor t h owever h a s declin ed t o zer o in r ecen t yea r , wh er eby
t h e Ch in es e In dex h a s ju mped con s ider a bly over t h e ba s e of 2005-06 t o
10793.1 in 2010-11.
Th e h igh gr owt h in Ch in es e In dex over Impor t In dex s ign a ls t h a t t h e
In dia n impor t of Ca pit a l Goods a r e r eloca t in g it s elf fr om r es t of t h e wor ld t o
China, es pecia lly for t h e it ems s u ch a s H.T. Insulators, Boilers, Footwear
except lea t h er , Refr a ct or y Br icks , Computers, Hea t Exch a n ger s , Grinding
Wheels, Pa cka gin g Ma ch in er y, Air Con dit ion er (Pa cka ged), Chillers, Electric
Welding Machines, Fibre Optic Cable, Electric Motors Phase-I, Cooling Towers,
Printers, Compu t er Per iph er a ls , Cranes, Tu r bin es & Acces s or ies ,
Lift s / Eleva t or s & Compon en t s t h er eof, Ma gn es it e, Dea d Bu r n t , Cylinders,
Pr in t in g Ma ch in er y, Sh ip Bu ildin g & Repa ir s , In s u la t ed Ca bles / Wir es a ll Kin d,
Sola r Power Sys t ems , Air & Ga s Compr es s or s , Text ile Ma ch in er y, Industrial
Chains, Agr icu lt u r a l Ma ch in er y, UPS/Inverter/Converter, Construction
Machine/Equipment, In du s t r ia l Blower s , Forklift, Tr a n s for mer s (Small),
Loaders, DC Mot or s , Air Br ea k Swit ch es / Cir cu it , Breakers, An d
Generator/Alternator.
Table 3. Capital Goods

Years IIP IMP Index Chinese Imports
2004-05 100 100
Growth IIP Growth of IMP
Index Share
2005-06 108.2 332.8 8.2 232.8 100.0 15.8
2006-07 119.8 276.5 10.7 -16.9 4396.4 12.8
2007-08 127.9 354.2 6.8 28.1 1829.7 15.2
2008-09 127.7 507.8 -0.1 43.4 6091.5 14.3
2009-10 131.2 565.3 2.7 11.3 1090.1 16.3
Pa g e | 10

2010-11 138.6 565.5 5.6 0.0 10793.1 15.8

Ma in ca pit a l goods it ems impor t ed fr om Ch in a , in t er ms of va lu e,
includes Sh ip Bu ildin g & Repa ir s , Compu t er s , Text ile Ma ch in er y, Air
Con dit ion er (Pa cka ged), Pr in t in g Ma ch in er y, Compu t er Per iph er a ls , Boiler s ,
In s u la t ed Ca bles / Wir es a ll Kin d, Ma ch in e Tools , Con s t r u ct ion
Machine/Equipmen, St a bilis er s , Tu r bin es & Acces s or ies , Refr a ct or y Br icks ,
Air & Ga s Compr es s or s , Elect r ic Mot or s Ph a s e-I, Lift s / Eleva t or s &
Compon en t s t h er eof, Pu mps (in clu din g power dr iven pu mps ), Medica l a n d
Su r gica l Equ ipmen t (except x-r a y), Sola r Power Sys t ems , En gin es In cl. In t er n a l
Combu s t ion a n d Dies el, En gin e, Agr icu lt u r a l Ma ch in er y, Transformers (Small),
Gen er a t or / Alt er n a t or , UPS/ In ver t er / Con ver t er , Pla s t ic Ma ch in er y In cl.
Mou ldin g Ma ch in er y, Cr a n es , Air Br ea k Swit ch es / Cir cu it Br ea ker s , Ch iller s ,
DC Motors, and Electric Motors(Excl. Phase-I).
Intermediate Goods
Th e va lu e of IIP for in t er media t e goods h a ve in cr ea s ed t o 303.0 in 2010-
11 a t t h e ba s e of 2004-05, compa r ed t o t h e impor t in dex va lu e of 781.5 du r in g
t h e s a me per iod (Table 4). Th e impor t of in t er media t e goods h a ve gr own fa s t er
t h a n t h e domes t ic pr odu ct ion , a n d t h e impor t s of in t er media t e goods fr om
China have grown even faster than the Import Index.
The import it ems wh er e t h e Ch in a is get ting its h old a r e Parts

Bicycle,
Au t o An cilla r y & Pa r t s , Sodiu m Hydr os u lph a t e/ Sodiu m, Hydr os u lph it e, Glass
Sheet, Tou gh en ed Gla s s , Fibr e Gla s s , Dyes, Magnets, Plywood, Tin Con t a in er s ,
Weldin g Rods , Wh it en in g Agen t s , Power Ca pa cit or s , Graphite
Electrodes/Anodes, St r a w An d Pa per Boa r ds of All Kin ds , Pla s t ic Film Excl.
Bopp Film, St eel St r u ct u r es , Wood Ven eer , Alu min iu m Tu bes / Pipes , Glass
Bottles, Bea r in gs (Ba ll/ Roller ), HDPE Woven Sa cks , Ru bber Ch emica l, Plastic
Sheets, Adhesives, Colou r TV Pict u r e Tu bes , Len s of All Kin ds , a n d IC Ch ips &
Transistors.
Table 4. Intermediate Goods

Years IIP Index IMP Index Growth Chinese Import
2004-05
100 100 IIP IMPORT Index Share
2005-06
116.5 149.0 16.5 49.0 100.0 4.7
2006-07
140.6 218.9 20.7 46.9 2234.0 5.7
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2007-08
265.0 267.0 88.5 22.0 954.8 6.3
2008-09
281.1 337.2 6.1 26.3 1619.8 5.7
2009-10
274.0 498.6 -2.5 47.8 1281.7 5.4
2010-11
303.0 781.5 10.6 56.8 899.3 5.2

Th e ma jor impor t s fr om Ch in a , in t er ms of va lu e, a r e Au t o An cilla r y &
Pa r t s , IC Ch ips & Tr a n s is t or s , Bea r in gs (Ba ll/ Roller ), Pa r t s

Bicycle, St eel
St r u ct u r es , St r a w An d Pa per Boa r ds of All Kin ds , Dyes , Power Ca pa cit or s ,
Gr a ph it e Elect r odes / An odes , Pr in t ed Cir cu it Boa r d/ Pla t e, Fibr e Gla s s ,
Ma gn et s , Colou r TV Pict u r e Tu bes , Syn t h et ic Ru bber , Ru bber Ch emica l,
Weldin g Rods , Plywood, Adh es ives , Gea r Boxes , Tou gh en ed Gla s s , PVC Res in s ,
Newsprint, Plastic Sheets, Plastic Film Excl. Bopp Film, and Printing Ink.
Consumer Goods
Th e va lu e of t h e In dex of Con s u mer Goods h a s gr own t o 205.9 in 2010-
11 over t h e ba s e of 2004-05 (Table 5). However , Impor t In dex h a s gr own
r ela t ively mu ch fa s t er t o 3551.7 du r in g s a me s even yea r s . Th e gr owt h of t h e
Impor t In dex h a s been fa s t er t h a n t h e domes t ic pr odu ct ion of t h e con s u mer
goods . Th e va lu e of t h e Ch in es e In dex h a s been con s ider a bly h igh er t h a n IIP
a n d Impor t In dex. Th e s h a r e of t h e Ch in es e impor t s h a s a ls o ju mped t o 18.8 %
in 2010-11 compa r ed t o ju s t 4.3 % in 2005-06. Th e impor t s of Con s u mer
Du r a bles Goods is gr owin g a t mu ch fa s t er r a t e t h a n even t h e ot h er u s e ba s ed
in du s t r ies a n d t h er efor e pu s h in g t h e s h a r e of Con s u mer Goods in t ot a l impor t
from China.
Th e it ems wh er e t h e Ch in a s s h a r e in t ot a l impor t s of t h e r es pect ive
it ems is r is in g a r e Bicycles, PVC/ Pla s t ic Su it ca s es , Ter r y Towel, Calculators,
Glucose( powder & liquid), Ru bber Fla ps , Flu or es cen t Tu bes , Lea t h er Sh oes ,
Fans, Ba t t er y Ch a r ger , Tyr e, Tr u ck/ Bu s , Mixer s & Gr in der s , Tube,
Cycle/Rickshaw, Tyr e, Cycle/ Ricks h a w, Tu be, Tr u ck, Teleph on e In s t r u men t s
Including, Mobile Ph on e An d Acces s or ies , Wood Fu r n it u r e, Air Con dit ion er
(Room), Vitamins, Por cela in An d Cer a mic Sa n it a r y, Wa r es , Amplifier, Leather
Ba gs , Wa llet s , Pu r s es , Tyr e, Mot or Cycle , Pr es s u r e Cooker , Mot or Cycles ,
Lea t h er Ga r men t s , Toot h Br u s h , Wa s h in g Ma ch in es , Apparels, Incandescent
Lamp, Spor t s Goods , Ru bber , Ra zor Bla des / Sa fet y Bla des , Pen s of All Kin d,
Gla zed Tiles / Cer a mic Tiles , Tyr e, Ca r / Ca b , Polyt h en e Ba gs In cl. Hdpe &
Ldpe, Ba gs , Scoot er a n d Mopeds , Squ a s h es , J a ms , J ellies , Ket ch u ps ,Et c.,
Pa g e | 12

Ca t t le a n d Pou lt r y Feed, Refrigerators, Ma r ble Tiles / Sla bs , Cock (Fa u cet s ),
Syringes, Compu t er St a t ion er y, Lea t h er Gloves , Condoms, Cigarettes, Fruit
Juices, PVC Pipes a n d Tu bes , Elect r ic met er of a ll kin ds , Wa t er met er of a ll
kinds, Clock/ Wa t ch / Timepiece Movemen t , Food Pr oces s in g Ma ch in er y,
Antibiotics & It's Preparations, Elastic Tape, And Toilet Soap.
Ma jor con s u mer du r a ble it ems , impor t ed fr om Ch in a , in t er ms of va lu e,
are Teleph on e In s t r u men t s In clu din g Mobile Ph on e a n d Acces s or ies , Air
Con dit ion er (Room), Tyr e, Tr u ck/ Bu s , Wood Fu r n it u r e, Wa s h in g Ma ch in es ,
Cock (Fa u cet s ), Fa n s , Pvc/ Pla s t ic Su it ca s es , Tyr e, Ca r / Ca b , Bicycles ,
Ca lcu la t or s , Por cela in An d Cer a mic Sa n it a r y, Wa r es , Clock/ Wa t ch / Timepiece
Movement, Battery Charger, Refrigerators, Watches, Amplifier, Books, and
Tyr e, Mot or Cycle .
Table 5. Consumer Goods

Years IIP IMP Index Growth Chinese Import
2004-05 100 100 IIP IMP Index Share
2005-06 117.9 151.0 17.9 51.0 100.0 4.3
2006-07 137.2 209.1 16.3 38.5 907.2 5.3
2007-08 164.7 308.9 20.1 47.7 1362.6 10.4
2008-09 159.5 377.0 -3.2 22.0 1732.0 18.0
2009-10 178.4 713.9 11.9 89.4 945.7 19.7
2010-11 205.9 3551.7 15.4 397.5 2503.1 18.8

Table 6. Correlation Coefficients of the Growth Rates

Capital
Goods
Basic
Goods
Intermediate
Goods
Consumer
Goods
Over All
Import Index 0.148 -0.230 -0.624 0.194 -0.094
Chinese Index 0.760 -0.012 -0.088 0.314 -0.229

The correlation coefficient (see Table 6) is used as to identify the direction
of t h e co-movemen t in t h e gr owt h r a t es of t h e domes t ic pr odu ct ion a n d t h e
impor t s . Th e pos it ive s ign of t h e coefficien t in dica t es t h a t t h e impor t gr owt h
a n d domes t ic pr odu ct ion gr owt h is movin g t oget h er in t h e s a me dir ect ion . On e
ca n in fer fr om t h e s a me dir ect ion a l co-movemen t of t h e gr owt h r a t es t h a t t h e
domes t ic pr odu ct ion a n d t h e impor t s eem t o be complemen t a r y, a n d n ot
s u bs t it u t e. Rega r din g t h e ca pit a l goods a n d t h e Con s u mer goods t h e
cor r ela t ion is pos it ive bet ween impor t in dices a n d t h e domes t ic pr odu ct ion
in dices . However , t h e cor r ela t ion r ega r din g over a ll IIP, ba s ic Goods a n d
Pa g e | 13

in t er media t e Goods is n egat ive, s h owin g t h a t t h e gr owt h of t h e domes t ic
pr odu ct ion is movin g in oppos it e dir ect ion t o t h e impor t gr owt h . Sin ce t h e
Ch in es e In dex is h igh er t h a n t h e IIP, t h e n ega t ive cor r ela t ion coefficien t s h ows
t h a t t h e impor t in Ba s ic Goods a n d In t er media t e Goods a r e n ega t ively
impa ct in g t h e domes t ic ma n u fa ct u r in g pr odu ct ion in t h es e gr ou ps . Th e
ma n u fa ct u r in g gr owt h r a t e a ls o s eems t o be a dver s ely a ffect ed du e t o a dver s e
impact of the growth Basic and Intermediate goods.
INDUSTRY SUB-GROUPS
Manufacture of food products and Beverages
Th e IIP value of food Pr odu ct s & Bever a ges h a s gr own t o 167.7 in 2010-
11 over t h e ba s e of 2004-05 compa r ed t o Impor t In dex t o 9635.7 a n d expor t
in dex 148.3 du r in g t h e s a me period (Table 7). Th e va lu e of t h e Ch in es e In dex
h a s been s ign ifica n t ly gr own t o 12791.3 in 2010-11 over 2005-06 ba s e,
compa r ed t o IIP a n d t h e Impor t In dex. Th is in dica t es t h a t t h e impor t fr om
Ch in a in t h is s u bgr ou p of in du s t r y h a s in cr ea s ed t r emen dou s ly in pa s t s even
yea r s . Th e it ems ma in ly s ou r ced fr om Ch in a , in t er ms of s h a r e in t ot a l impor t s
of t h e it em in In dia , a r e Glucose (powder & liqu id), Squ a s h es , J a ms , J ellies ,
Ketchups, etc., Cattle and Poultry Feed, a nd Fruit Juices.
Top five it ems impor t ed fr om Ch in a , in t er ms of t h eir va lu e, a r e
Industrial Alcoh ol(Rect ified/ Den a t u r ed Spir it ), Ca t t le a n d Pou lt r y Feed,
Glu cos e(powder &liqu id), Fr u it J u ices , In dia n ma de For eign Liqu or , Squ a s h es ,
Jams, Jellies, Ketchups,Etc..
Table 7. Manufacture of food products and Beverages

Years IIP Index

IMP Index EXP Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr.

EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100

100

100

Index Growth Share
2005-06

113.6

151.6

109.5

13.6

51.6

9.5

100.0 0.31
2006-07

126.2

190.4

111.3

11.1

25.6

1.6

5713.1 5613.1 0.45
2007-08

144.9

364.9

148.3

14.8

91.6

33.2

7693.2 34.7 0.25
2008-09

149.6

360.8

148.9

3.3

-1.1

0.4

5191.8 -32.5 0.18
2009-10

159.2

1468.8

129.0

6.4

307.1

-13.4

3444.8 -33.6 0.20
2010-11

167.7

9635.7

148.3

5.3

556.0

15.0

12791.3

271.3 0.22

Manufacture of Tobacco Products
Pa g e | 14

Th e IIP of Toba cco in cr ea s ed t o ju s t five per cen t in 2010-11 compa r ed t o
2004-05, wh ile expor t h a s gr own by fift y five per cen t a n d impor t by mor e t h a n
fou r t imes in pa s t s even yea r s (Table. 8). Th e impor t of Toba cco fr om Ch in a is
on a decline during past six years. Cigarette is the main item in this category of
import from China.
Table. 8 Manufacture of Tobacco Products

Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr.

EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100 Index Growth Share
2005-06

104.8 48.8 97.3 4.8 -51.2 -2.7 100.0 0.01
2006-07

107.7 67.7 114.7 2.7 38.7 17.9 0.5 -99.5 0.00
2007-08

98.8 84.7 118.0 -8.2 25.0 2.9 29.6 5713.0 0.00
2008-09

103.9 353.4 140.8 5.2 317.3 19.3 38.9 31.6 0.00
2009-10

104.2 483.8 140.5 0.2 36.9 -0.2 32.7 -16.0 0.00
2010-11

105.5 427.2 155.7 1.3 -11.7 10.8 96.8 196.0 0.00

Manufacture of Textiles
Th e Text ile is expor t or ien t a t ed in du s t r y. Th e va lu e of IIP for t ext iles h a s
grown almost equal to the Export Index in 2010-11 over the base of 2004-05 to
155 (Table 9). However, the Import Index surged during the crises year of 2008-
09, t o 248, a lt h ou gh it h a s declin ed t h er ea ft er t o 149.3. Th e Ch in es e In dex
a ls o ju mped t o 9608.1 in 2008-09 a lon g wit h t h e s h a r e of in du s t r y in t ot a l
impor t s fr om Ch in a t o 0.03%. However , t h e impor t fr om Ch in a h a s declin ed
fr om 2009-10 on wa r ds . Ma in impor t it ems , in t er ms of va lu e, fr om Ch in a a r e
Terry Towel and Elastic Tapes.
Table 9. Manufacture of Textiles

Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100
IIP Gr. IMP Gr.

EX G
Index Growth Share
2005-06

118.4 131.9 162.6 18.4 31.9 62.6 100.0 0.01
2006-07

127.7 68.8 161.8 7.8 -47.8 -0.5 259.6 159.6 0.00
2007-08

133.7 137.5 167.7 4.7 99.7 3.7 915.6 252.7 0.01
2008-09

130.3 248.4 186.6 -2.6 80.6 11.3 9608.1

949.4 0.03
2009-10

145.3 137.6 180.6 11.5 -44.6 -3.2 357.9 -96.3 0.00
2010-11

155.5 149.3 154.1 7.0 8.5 -14.7 225.6 -37.0 0.00

Manufacture of wearing Apparel; Dressing and dyeing of fur
Th e va lu e of t h e IIP for wear in g Appa r el; Dr es s in g a n d dyein g et c. h a s
in cr ea s ed t o 120 in 2010-11 over t h e ba s e of 2004-05 (Table 10). Th er e is a
Pa g e | 15

declin e in t h e pr odu ct ion s in ce 2008-09 in t h is s egmen t . Th is is ma in ly on
accou n t of t h e declin e in t h e expor t gr owt h in t h is s ect or du r in g pa s t t h r ee
yea r s except 2009-10. At t h e s a me t ime va lu e of t h e Impor t In dex h a s gr own t o
489.8 over the base of 2004-05. The Chinese import are growing at much faster
r a t e t h a n r es t of t h e cou n t r ies , Ch in es e In dex in cr ea s ed t o 690.3 in 2010-11
over the base of 2005-06. The declining domestic production may be the cause
of t h e declin e in t h e expor t . Bu t t h e s u r ge in impor t fr om Ch in a is cer t a in ly a
ca u s e of con cer n . Th e Ch in a s impor t s h a r e in t ot a l impor t of Appa r els a n d
Lea t h er Ga r men t s h a s ju mped t o 39 % a n d 43 in 2010-11 compa r ed t o ju s t 17
% a n d 18% r es pect ively. This indicates that the Chinese import has been
replacing the import f rom other countries over the time in these subgroup
commodities.
Table 10. Manufacture of wearing Apparel; Dressing and dyeing of fur

Years IIP Index IMP Index

EX Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr. EX G
Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100 Index Growth Share
2005-06

106.5 160.9 108.7 6.5 60.9 8.7 100.0 0.0
2006-07

117.6 195.4 103.1 10.4 21.5 -5.2 188.5 88.5 0.0
2007-08

129.7 317.5 101.9 10.3 62.5 -1.2 255.2 35.4 0.0
2008-09

121.5 414.1 141.4 -6.3 30.4 38.8 365.6 43.2 0.0
2009-10

119.6 307.2 129.9 -1.6 -25.8 -8.2 371.1 1.5 0.0
2010-11

120.2 489.8 108.2 0.5 59.5 -16.7 690.3 86.0 0.0

Tanning and Dressing of Leather
Th e domes t ic pr odu ct ion of lea t h er In du s t r y is gr owin g a t a s low pa ce
s in ce 2004-05, a n d it h a s declin ed du r in g 2008-10 (Table 11). Th e gr owt h of
domestic production of this sector seems to be correlated to the export growth.
Table 11. Tanning and Dressing of Leather
Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr.

EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100 Index Growth Share
2005-06

97.4 182.1 97.0 -2.6 82.1 -3.0 100.0 0.2
2006-07

115.7 246.4 103.3 18.9 35.3 6.5 345.1 245.1 0.2
2007-08

125.3 297.2 98.5 8.3 20.6 -4.6 415.2 20.3 0.1
2008-09

116.1 305.0 115.6 -7.4 2.6 17.4 405.2 -2.4 0.1
2009-10

112.2 714.0 105.6 -3.4 134.1 -8.7 214.6 -47.0 0.1
2010-11

126.4 472.4 112.7 12.7 -33.8 6.7 340.2 58.6 0.2

Pa g e | 16

Compa r ed t o domes t ic pr odu ct ion t h e impor t in t h is s ect or h a s been
gr owin g at a r ela t ively h igh er r a t e except in r ecen t yea r . Th e impor t fr om
Ch in a h a s declin ed du r in g 2008-10 followin g t h e declin e in t h e domes t ic
production. Ma in it ems of impor t , in t er ms of va lu e, fr om Ch in a a r e Foot wea r
except lea t h er , Lea t h er Sh oes , Ta n n ed or Ch r ome Skin s a n d Lea t h er s , Lea t h er
Ba gs , Wa llet s , Pu r s es , and Leather Gloves.
Manufacture of wood and wood products
Th e va lu e of t h e IIP for Woods & Woods pr odu ct s h a s in cr ea s ed t o 139.6
in 2010-11 over t h e ba s e of 2004-05 compa r ed t o shrinking Export Index of
ju s t 57.7 du r in g t h e s a me per iod (Table 12). Th e gr owt h of IIP has declin ed
during past three years. The growth of the export is also declining continuously
during pa s t fou r yea r s . Th e Import In dex h owever , h a s r is en t o 486.3 a n d its
gr owt h h a s been ver y h igh a n d pos it ive in a ll s even yea r s except 2009-10. Th e
Ch in es e In dex h a s been even h igh er t h a n t h e Impor t In dex. Th e domes t ic
pr odu ct ion migh t be u n der s t r es s du e t o en vir on men t a l r egu la t ion et c.. Main
items of Import from China are Plywood, Wood Veneer and Particle Boards.
Table 12. Manufacture of wood and wood products

Years IIP Index

IMP Index

EX Index

IIP Gr.

IMP Gr.

EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100 Index

Growth

Share

2005-06

103.9 166.4 106.9 3.9 66.4 6.9 100.0

0.1
2006-07

117.0 215.9 129.6 12.6 29.7 21.3 215.2

115.2 0.1
2007-08

134.9 297.0 122.1 15.3 37.6 -5.8 229.4

6.6 0.1
2008-09

140.3 339.0 111.4 4.0 14.1 -8.7 211.3

-7.9 0.0
2009-10

142.6 350.3 78.8 1.6 3.3 -29.3 295.9

40.0 0.1
2010-11

139.6 486.3 57.7 -2.1 38.8 -26.8 614.5

107.7 0.1

Manufacture of paper and paper products
The IIP for pa per & pa per pr odu ct s h a s gr own by 36 % in 2010-11
compa r ed t o 2004-05, and annual gr owt h of IIP h a s been low es pecia lly du r in g
2007-09 a n d n ega t ive in 2009-10 (Table 13). Su r pr is in gly t h e beh a vior of t h e
expor t gr owt h in t h is s ect or h a s been qu it e con t r a s t in g t o t h e gr owt h of t h e
domes t ic pr odu ct ion . Th e Ch in es e impor t s a r e con t r a ct in g du r in g pa s t t wo
years. Ma jor it ems of impor t fr om Ch in a a r e St r a w a n d Pa per Boa r ds of All
Kin ds , News pr in t , Wr it in g & Pr in t in g Pa per , Cr a ft Pa per (Kr a ft Pa per ), Pu lp
Rayon Grade, Computer Stationery.
Pa g e | 17

Table 13. Manufacture of paper and paper products

Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr. EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100 Index Growth Share
2005-06

107.0 143.5 103.7 7.0 43.5 3.7 100.0 0.3
2006-07

116.4 208.1 119.0 8.8 45.1 14.7 2311.4

2211.4 0.8
2007-08

121.6 184.4 103.0 4.4 -11.4 -13.4 1998.0

-13.6 0.6
2008-09

124.5 237.6 120.6 2.4 28.8 17.1 3508.6

75.6 0.7
2009-10

124.2 365.3 139.6 -0.3 53.7 15.8 1477.5

-57.9 0.5
2010-11

136.0 160.3 104.1 9.5 -56.1 -25.4 844.8 -42.8 0.4

Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media
The value of the IIP of this industry sub group has grown to 132 in 2010-
11 at the base of 2004-05, and the growth has been quite low during past three
con t in u ou s yea r s (Table 14). Th e va lu e of t h e Expor t In dex in t h is s ect or h a s
gr own t o 175.4 in 2010-11. Th er e is h owever , con t in u ou s declin e in t h e impor t
s in ce 2004-05 except 2009-10 in wh ich t h er e is a s u dden r is e in impor t . Th e
gr owt h of impor t fr om Ch in a h a s been qu it e h igh except 2009-10. Th e impor t
surge in 2009-10 s eems t o be fr om cou n t r ies ot h er t h a n Ch in a . Th e on ly it em
imported from China under this category is Books.
Table 14. Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media

Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100
IIP Gr. IMP Gr.

EX G
Index Growth Share
2005-06

112.4 71.1 118.5 12.4 -28.9 18.5 100.0 0.0
2006-07

119.4 82.9 140.1 6.2 16.6 18.3 187.9 87.9 0.0
2007-08

133.4 70.3 146.4 11.7 -15.3 4.5 259.4 38.1 0.0
2008-09

133.9 73.3 179.4 0.4 4.2 22.5 620.0 139.0 0.0
2009-10

129.3 2349.0 161.5 -3.4 3106.1 -10.0 346.0 -44.2 0.0
2010-11

132.4 175.4 2.4 -100.0 8.6 377.5 9.1 0.0

Manufacture of Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel
Ca r bon Bla ck is t h e on ly pr odu ct con s ider ed for t h e a n a lys is u n der t h is
subgroup of in du s t r y a n d wh ich is a pa r t of 268 DIPP it ems (Table 15). Th e
domes t ic pr odu ct ion of t h e pr odu ct h a s in cr ea s ed ju s t by 15 % in la s t s even
yea r s . However , t h e expor t h a s in cr ea s ed by 92 % a n d impor t by 74 %
respectively in 2010-11 compa r ed over 2004-05. Th e ma s s ive impor t fr om
Pa g e | 18

Ch in a s eems t o pu t ch a llen ge befor e t h e domes t ic in du s t r y. Bla ck Ca r bon
ma r ket bein g oligopolis t ic in In dia s eems t o be fa cin g pr oblem of du mpin g of
the cheap product from China.
Table 15. Manufacture of Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel
Years

IIP Index

IMP Index EX Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr.

EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100 Index Growth Share
2005-06

102.8 85.8 77.9 2.8 -14.2 -22.1 100.0 0.0
2006-07

107.8 124.0 64.5 4.9 44.6 -17.2 605.5 505.5 0.0
2007-08

115.6 177.9 79.8 7.2 43.5 23.7 812.7 34.2 0.0
2008-09

107.3 197.6 88.1 -7.1 11.1 10.4 1210.6 49.0 0.0
2009-10

112.7 174.3 171.1 5.0 -11.8 94.2 1137.3 -6.1 0.1
2010-11

115.2 186.4 192.0 2.2 6.9 12.2 1103.6 -3.0 0.0

Manufacture of Chemical and chemical products
The IIP in t h is s egmen t of in du s t r y h a s gr own con s is t en t ly du r in g pa s t
s even yea r s . Th e va lu e of t h e IIP h a s gr own t o 142.8 in 2010-11 compa r ed t o
2004-05 (Table 16). During the same years the Export Index reached to highest
501.8 in 2008-09, befor e it declin ed t o 456.9 in 2010-11. Th e Impor t In dex
h owever , is gr owin g a t fa s t er r a t e a n d r ea ch ed 456.9 levels in 2010-11. Th e
growth of the Chinese Index seems to be even faster than the Import Index. The
ma jor it ems imported, in t er ms of va lu e, fr om Ch in a a r e Dyes , Vit a min s ,
Syn t h et ic Ru bber , Ru bber Ch emica l, Adh es ives , PVC Res in s , Pr in t in g In k,
Aniline, and Sodium Hydrosulphate/Sodium Hydrosulphite.
Table 16. Manufacture of Chemical and chemical products

Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100
IIP Gr.

IMP Gr.

EX G
Index Growth Share
2005-06

109.0 139.9 111.8 9.0 39.9 11.8 100.0 1.3
2006-07

119.3 232.6 124.7 9.5 66.3 11.5 192.6 92.6 1.2
2007-08

125.3 272.4 151.4 5.0 17.1 21.4 379.7 97.2 1.2
2008-09

127.9 501.8 192.6 2.1 84.2 27.2 306.8 -19.2 0.8
2009-10

135.4 416.5 182.3 5.8 -17.0 -5.4 566.1 84.6 0.9
2010-11

142.8 456.9 194.5 5.5 9.7 6.7 654.2 15.6 0.8

Manufacture of rubber and plastic products
Pa g e | 19

The IIP of Ru bber & Pla s t ic in du s t r y gr ou p has in cr ea s ed by 74.5% in
2010-11 compa r ed t o 2004-05, wh er ea s t h e Expor t In dex h a s gr own by 48 %
and Import Index by a massive 3155 % during the same period (Table 17). The
gr owt h of expor t h a s been n ega t ive in 2007-08 a n d 2009-10. Th e Ch in es e
In dex is gr owin g a t mor e t h a n 200% a n d 300% in 2006-07 a n d 2007-08
r es pect ively, followin g a declin e t h er ea ft er . Some of t h e ma jor it ems impor t ed
fr om Ch in a a r e Tyr e, Tr u ck/ Bu s , PVC/ Pla s t ic Su it ca s es , Tyr e, Ca r / Ca b ,
Plastic Sheets, Plastic Film Excl. Bopp Film, Rubber Transmission And V Belts,
HDPE Woven Sacks, Tyre, Motor Cycle, Tube, Truck , a n d Plastic Bottles.
The it ems ma in ly s ou r ced fr om Ch in a a r e Pvc/ Pla s t ic, Su it ca s es , Ru bber
Fla ps , Tyr e, Tr u ck/ Bu s , Tu be, Cycle/ Ricks h a w, Tyr e, Cycle/ Ricks h a w, Tu be,
Tr u ck , Tyr e, Mot or Cycle , Tyr e, Ca r / Ca b , Pla s t ic Film Excl., Bopp Film,
Polythene Bags, Incl. Hdpe & Ldpe, Bags, and HDPE Woven Sacks.
Table 17. Manufacture of rubber and plastic products

Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100
IIP Gr.

IMP Gr. EX G
Index Growth Share
2005-06

113.3 128.8 120.9 13.3 28.8 20.9 100.0 0.5
2006-07

126.8 172.8 131.9 11.9 34.1 9.1 339.1 239.1 0.6
2007-08

139.7 205.4 124.5 10.1 18.9 -5.6 1398.9

312.5 0.8
2008-09

141.0 207.5 150.2 0.9 1.0 20.7 657.9 -53.0 0.6
2009-10

162.2 258.7 135.6 15.0 24.7 -9.7 515.8 -21.6 0.8
2010-11

174.5 3255.1 148.1 7.6 1158.1 9.2 570.3 10.6 0.8

Manufacture of other Non-metallic Mineral Products
The IIP of n on -met a llic min er a ls h a s in cr ea s ed t o 138.7 in 2010-11
compared to 2004-05 (Table 18). The IIP has grown at average of 8.0 %, except
2008-10, wh en t h e gr owt h of IIP declin ed t o les s t h a n on e per cen t . Th e
s lu ggis h gr owt h in t h e IIP h a s a ls o led t o declin e in t h e expor t of t h is s egmen t .
Vis ible lin ka ge of pr odu ct ion a n d expor t of t h is s ect or r ein for ces t h e expor t
depen den cy. Th e Impor t In dex h a s gr own t o 650 over t h e ba s e of 2004-05
compa r ed t o Ch in es e In dex 21302.9 in 2008-09 over t h e ba s e of 2005-06.
Rela t ively h igh gr owt h of t h e Ch in es e impor t over r es t of t h e cou n t r ies s ign a ls
that the Chinese import is replacing the import of non-metallic minerals.
Th e it ems wh er e Ch in a is r epla cin g ot h er cou n t r ies a r e H.T.Insulators,
Refr a ct or y Br icks , Gla s s Sh eet , Tou gh en ed Gla s s , Por cela in a n d Cer a mic,
Pa g e | 20

Sa n it a r y Wa r es , Fibr e Gla s s , Ma gn es it e, Dea d Bu r n t , Gla zed Tiles / Cer a mic,
Tiles, Glass Bottles, and Marble Tiles/Slabs. Major items imported, in terms of
value, fr om Ch in a a r e Refr a ct or y Br icks , Fibr e Gla s s , Tou gh en ed Gla s s ,
Por cela in An d Cer a mic Sa n it a r y Wa r es , Ma gn es it e, Dea d Bu r n t , Cemen t All
Kinds, Glass Sheet, Glass Bottles, H.T.Insulators, Marble and Tiles/Slabs.
Table 18 Manufacture of other Non-metallic Mineral Products

Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

IIP Gr.

IMP Gr.

EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100 Index Growth Share
2005-06

107.7 175.8 101.6 7.7 75.8 1.6 100.0 0.9
2006-07

115.9 314.1 118.3 7.6 78.7 16.5 15097.9

14997.9

1.0
2007-08

125.9 336.3 103.1 8.6 7.1 -12.9 2448.4 -83.8 0.8
2008-09

124.6 580.8 103.6 -1.0 72.7 0.5 21302.9

770.1 0.8
2009-10

126.4 1203.4 92.7 1.5 107.2 -10.5 768.9 -96.4 0.9
2010-11

138.7 650.2 103.2 9.7 -46.0 11.3 35071.6

4461.0 0.8

Manufacture of Basic Metals
Th e IIP for t h e ba s ic met a ls h a s gr own t o 147.6 in 2010-11 compa r ed t o
export in dex of 401.4 a n d impor t in dex of 394.1 over t h e ba s e of 2004-05
(Table 19). Th e s h r in kin g expor t of t h e ba s ic met a ls in 2007-08 is followed by
declin e in t h e domes t ic pr odu ct ion in 2008-09. Th e gr owt h of t h e impor t h a s
a ls o been ver y h igh except 2007-08. The import of Basic Metal form China is
growing at much f aster rate than the import from other countries, which is
another instance of Chinese imports replacing the imports from other countries.
Table 19. Manufacture of Basic Metals

Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr. EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100

100

100

Index Growth Share
2005-06

117.8

169.1

140.1

17.8

69.1

40.1

100.0 1.4
2006-07

131.5

199.1

234.1

11.6

17.7

67.1

543.3 443.3 1.6
2007-08

140.2

202.0

201.3

6.6

1.5

-14.0

1547.2 184.8 1.9
2008-09

132.7

228.8

147.2

-5.3

13.3

-26.9

2465.9 59.4 1.7
2009-10

140.3

249.3

143.5

5.7

9.0

-2.5

3484.5 41.3 1.3
2010-11

147.6

394.1

401.4

5.2

58.1

179.7

4608.1 32.2 1.5

Pa g e | 21

The items which are increasing sourced from China are Aluminium Foils,
Alu min iu m wir es & ext r u s ion s , Alu min iu m Sh eet s / Pla t es , Alu min iu m
Tu bes / Pipes , Alu min iu m, An d Copper a n d Copper Pr odu ct s . The ma jor it ems
of impor t , in t er ms of va lu e fr om Ch in a are a lu min iu m, Copper a n d Copper
Pr odu ct s , Alu min iu m Sh eet s / Pla t es , Alu min iu m Foils , Wir es (Copper ),
a luminium Tubes/Pipes, and C.I. Castings.
Manufacture of Fabricated metal products, except machinery
Th e impor t of Fa br ica t ed met a l pr odu ct s , except ma ch in er y

h a s gr own
fa s t er t h a n t h e domes t ic pr odu ct ion a n d expor t . Th e gr owt h in t h e domes t ic
pr odu ct ion h a s been declin in g du r in g 2005-06 t o 2008-09. However, t h e
gr owt h of t h e impor t has in cr ea s ed t ill 2007-08 (Table 20). Th e impor t fr om
Ch in a du r in g t h is per iod h a s in cr ea s ed by 3805% over t h e ba s e of 2005-06.
The correlation between imports and the domestic production indicates some of
the negative impact of the import from China on domestic production of this
sector.
The main imported items, in terms of value, from China are Boilers, Steel
St r u ct u r es , Cock (Fa u cet s ), Cylin der s , Ra zor Bla des / Sa fet y Bla des , Tin
Con t a in er s a n d St a mpin gs & For gin gs . Th e it ems wh er e t h e impor t s fr om
Ch in a a r e in cr ea s in g r epla cin g t h e impor t s fr om ot h er cou n t r ies a r e Boilers,
Tin Con t a in er s , Ra zor Bla des / Sa fet y Bla des , Cylin der s , St eel St r u ct u r es , An d
Cock (Faucets).
Table 20. Manufacture of Fabricated metal products, except machinery

Years IIP Index

IMP Index EX Index Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100
IIP Gr. IMP Gr. EX G
Index Growth Share
2005-06

120.0 152.0 122.6 20.0 52.0 22.6 100.0 0.4
2006-07

139.0 189.1 146.6 15.9 24.4 19.6 9466.4 9366.4 0.5
2007-08

149.8 468.3 178.3 7.7 147.7 21.6 852.3 -91.0 2.3
2008-09

147.8 608.9 191.9 -1.3 30.0 7.6 3905.6 358.2 2.3
2009-10

174.7 694.8 157.1 18.2 14.1 -18.1 4030.1 3.2 1.8
2010-11

191.9 2055.9 159.3 9.8 195.9 1.4 2264.9 -43.8 1.2

Manufacture of Machinery and equipment
The IIP for Ma ch in er y a n d equ ipmen t h a s gr own con s is t en t ly a t a r ou n d
20 % per yea r s in ce 2004-05, except 2008-09 (Table 21). Th e expor t s h a ve a ls o
gr own a t r ela t ively h igh er r a t e t h a n IIP du r in g t h e s ame per iod, except a
Pa g e | 22

n ega t ive gr owt h in bot h t h e s ect or s (impor t s & expor t s ) in 2009-10. Th e
Ch in es e In dex h a s gr own by 5204% s in ce 2005-06. Th e gr owt h of t h e Ch in es e
impor t s h a s declin ed over t h e t ime t ill 2009-10 wh ich h a s s u r ged by 250.7% in
2010-11.
Table 21. Manufacture of Machinery and equipment

Years IIP Index

IMP Index EX Index Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100
IIP Gr.

IMP Gr. EX G
Index Growth Share
2005-06

124.1 151.6 117.6 24.1 51.6 17.6 100.0 6.1
2006-07

153.0 235.0 136.1 23.3 55.0 15.7 1590.3 1490.3 6.3
2007-08

209.9 294.0 164.8 37.2 25.1 21.1 1859.2 16.9 6.5
2008-09

196.1 448.9 237.9 -6.6 52.7 44.3 1546.4 -16.8 6.9
2009-10

221.8 344.7 181.7 13.1 -23.2 -23.6 1512.6 -2.2 8.4
2010-11

274.9 458.1 242.1 23.9 32.9 33.2 5304.0 250.7 8.0

Th e it ems impor t ed fr om Ch in a wh ich ca r r y valu e of mor e t h a n Rs .
10000 la cs in 2010-11 a r e Text ile Ma ch in er y, Air Con dit ion er (Pa cka ged),
Pr in t in g Ma ch in er y, Air Con dit ion er (Room), Bea r in gs (Ba ll/ Roller ), Ma ch in e
Tools , Con s t r u ct ion Ma ch in e/ Equ ipmen t , Tu r bin es & Acces s or ies , Air & Ga s
Compr es s or s , Wa s h in g Ma ch in es , Lift s / Eleva t or s & Compon en t s t h er eof,
Pu mps (in clu din g power dr iven pu mps ), Sola r Power Sys t ems , En gin es In cl.
In t er n a l Combu s t ion a n d Dies el En gin e, Fa n s , Agr icu lt u r a l Ma ch in er y, Pla s t ic
Ma ch in er y In cl. Mou ldin g Ma ch in er y, Cr a n es , and Chillers. Th e in cr ea s in g
imports of these items probably impacting negatively the domestic production.
Th e impor t fr om Ch in a is r epla cin g t h e impor t fr om ot h er cou n t r ies in
t h e it ems s u ch a s Fa n s , Air Con dit ion er (Room), Hea t Exch a n ger s , Packaging
Ma ch in er y, Air Con dit ion er (Pa cka ged), Ch iller s , Elect r ic Weldin g Ma ch in es ,
Cr a n es , Tu r bin es & Acces s or ies , Lift s / Eleva t or s & Compon en t s t h er eof,
Pr in t in g Ma ch in er y, Sola r Power Sys t ems , Air & Ga s Compr es s or s , Text ile
Mach in er y, In du s t r ia l Ch a in s , Agr icu lt u r a l Ma ch in er y, Con s t r u ct ion , a n d
Machine/Equipment.
Manufacture of office, accounting and computing machinery
The IIP h a s gr own by 263% in 2010-11 compa r ed t o expor t in dex by
193% a n d impor t in dex by 122% over t h e ba s e of 2004-05 (Table 22). However
t h e gr owt h of domes t ic pr odu ct ion a ft er 2007-08 h a s n ot been ver y impr es s ive
Pa g e | 23

a n d dipped t o -11.6 % in 2009-10. Th e gr owt h of t h e Ch in es e impor t h a s
increased in past two years.
Ma in it ems impor t ed fr om Ch in a a r e Compu t er s , Compu t er Per iph er a ls ,
Ca lcu la t or s a n d Pr in t er s . Compu t er s a n d ca lcu la t or s a r e in cr ea s in gly s ou r ced
from the China compared to other countries.
Table 22. Manufacture of office, accounting and computing machinery

Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100
IIP Gr. IMP Gr.

EX G
Index Growth Share
2005-06

123.0 146.3 147.9 23.0 46.3 47.9 100.0 6.7
2006-07

136.6 212.1 172.8 11.1 45.0 16.8 90.7 -9.3 3.9
2007-08

365.9 192.6 170.5 167.9 -9.2 -1.3 138.6 52.8 4.2
2008-09

382.4 169.0 212.0 4.5 -12.3 24.3 115.3 -16.8 2.7
2009-10

338.0 196.5 241.4 -11.6 16.3 13.9 159.7 38.6 3.5
2010-11

363.0 222.8 293.5 7.4 13.4 21.6 206.9 29.6 3.5

Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus
Th e domes t ic pr odu ct ion of t h e elect r ic ma ch in er y a n d a ppa r a t u s h a s
in cr ea s ed by 263% in 2010-11 compa r ed t o expor t by 182 a n d impor t by 171
% over t h e ba s e of 2004-05. Th e gr owt h of t h e impor t s h owever , h a s been
h igh er in t h os e yea r s wh er e t h e domes t ic pr odu ct ion gr owt h h a s been low,
except 2009-10 when the growth of the import, export and domestic production
h a s been n ega t ive. Th e gr owt h of impor t fr om Ch in a h a s been ver y h igh du r in g
three years, 2005-06 to 2008-09, however, declined in 2009-10.
Table 23. Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus
Years

IIP Index

IMP Index EX Index Chinese Imports
2004-05

100.0 100.0 100.0
IIP Gr.

IMP Gr.

EX G
Index Growth Share
2005-06

123.0 593.9 149.8 23.0 493.9 49.8 100.0 2.5
2006-07

136.6 242.3 244.1 11.1 -59.2 63.0 239.8 139.8 2.5
2007-08

365.9 241.9 246.7 167.9 -0.2 1.1 537.0 124.0 3.4
2008-09

382.4 313.1 337.9 4.5 29.4 37.0 1066.4 98.6 3.6
2009-10

338.0 226.4 267.1 -11.6 -27.7 -21.0 562.6 -47.2 2.9
2010-11

363.0 271.4 282.7 7.4 19.9 5.9 641.2 14.0 2.4

Ma in it ems impor t ed, in t er ms of va lu e, fr om Ch in a a r e Insulated
Ca bles / Wir es a ll Kin d, Stabilisers, Elect r ic Mot or s Ph a s e-I, Graphite
Pa g e | 24

Electrodes/Anodes, Tr a n s for mer s (Sma ll), Magnets, Generator/Alternator,
UPS/Inverter/Converter, Weldin g Rods , Air Br ea k Swit ch es / Cir cu it
Breakers, DC Mot or s , Elect r ic Mot or s (Excl.Ph a s e-I), Flu or es cen t Tu bes ,
Elect r ica l Swit ch boa r d, Ba t t er y Ch a r ger , In ca n des cen t La mp, Rela ys , Fu s es
An d Swit ch gea r s , Fibr e Opt ic Ca ble, Tr a n s for mer s (P.D.T & Specia l Type), a n d
Cable, Rubber Insulated.
Th e it ems in cr ea s in gly s ou r ced fr om Ch in a a r e Flu or es cen t Tu bes ,
Ba t t er y Ch a r ger , Ma gn et s , Fibr e Opt ic Ca ble, Elect r ic Mot or s Ph a s e-I,
Incandescent Lamp, Insulated Cables/Wires all Kind, UPS/Inverter/Converter,
Transformers (Sma ll), DC Mot or s , Air Br ea k Swit ch es / Cir cu it , Br ea ker s ,
Gen er a t or / Alt er n a t or , St a bilis er s , Rela ys , Fu s es An d Swit ch gea r s ,
Tr a n s for mer s (P.D.T & Specia l Type), Elect r ic Mot or s (Excl.Ph a s e-I), An d
Electrical Switchboard.
Manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment
Th e gr owt h of IIP for r a dio, t elevis ion a n d commu n ica t ion equ ipment h a s
declin ed over t h e yea r s (Table 24). Th e expor t growth has been bet t er except in
2005-06 a n d 2009-10. Th e impor t is gr owin g a t mor e t h a n 35% a ver a ge except
a dip in 2009-10. Th e Ch in es e In dex has gr own t o a r ela t ively h igh er level in
past six years, although the growth has moderated over the years.
Th e s h a r e of impor t of r a dio, t elevis ion a n d commu n ica t ion equ ip in t h e
t ot a l t h e Ch in es e impor t h a ve impr oved con s ider a bly fr om ju s t 3.1% in 2005-
06 t o 16.5 % in 2010-11. Th is in dica t es t h a t t h e gr owt h of t h e impor t of r a dio,
t elevis ion a n d commu n ica t ion equ ip fr om Ch in a h a s been mu ch h igh er t h an
the total imports growth from Chinese.
Table 24. Manufacture of radio, television and communication equip

Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr.

EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100 Index Growth Share
2005-06

122.1 132.7 98.8 22.1 32.7 -1.2 100.0 3.1
2006-07

238.1 180.3 139.5 94.9 35.9 41.2 221.1 121.1 3.6
2007-08

418.9 257.1 181.4 75.9 42.6 30.0 514.3 132.6 8.5
2008-09

492.0 405.2 1211.9 17.5 57.6 567.9 717.3 39.5 16.5
2009-10

542.5 370.4 895.3 10.3 -8.6 -26.1 801.2 11.7 18.1
2010-11

616.0 467.1 1641.5 13.5 26.1 83.3 1014.2 26.6 16.5
Pa g e | 25

Main impor t ed it ems fr om Ch in a a r e Teleph on e In s t r u men t s In clu din g
Mobile Ph on e a n d Acces s or ies , IC Ch ips & Tr a n s is t or s , Power Ca pa cit or s ,
Printed Circuit Board/Plate, and Colour TV Picture Tubes.
Manufacture of medical precision and optical instruments
The IIP h a s gr own ju s t by 19% in 2010-11 over t h e ba s e of 2004-05
(Table 25). Th e expor t a lt h ou gh is s h r in kin g du r in g pa s t t wo yea r s , wh ile
impor t h a s gr own well du r in g pa s t s even yea r s except 2008-09. Th e Chinese
In dex on ot h er h a n d is gr owin g a t mu ch fa s t er r a t e t h a n Impor t In dex a n d IIP.
Th is s ign a ls t h a t t h e domes t ic dema n d of t h e pr odu ct is fu lfilled by t h e ch ea p
import from China.
Ma in impor t ed items , in t er ms of va lu e, a r e Medica l a n d Su r gical
Equ ipmen t (except x-r a y), Clock/ Wa t ch / Timepiece Movemen t , Wa t ch es , Len s
of All Kinds, and Syringes
Table 25 Manufacture of medical precision and optical instruments

Years IIP Index

IMP Index EX Index IIP Gr. IMP Gr. EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100 Index Growth Share
2005-06

110.2 160.9 96.3 10.2 60.9 -3.7 100.0 0.3
2006-07

115.0 255.3 106.1 4.3 58.7 10.1 138.1 38.1 0.3
2007-08

121.6 338.9 106.2 5.8 32.8 0.1 367.9 166.4 0.3
2008-09

120.1 307.1 125.2 -1.2 -9.4 17.8 521.1 41.7 0.3
2009-10

110.0 350.3 122.5 -8.4 14.1 -2.1 542.4 4.1 0.4
2010-11

119.1 685.6 47.0 8.3 95.7 -61.6 654.5 20.7 0.3

Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
Ther e is a s u r ge in t h e impor t of t h e mot or veh icles , t r a iler s a n d s emi-
t r a iler s in t h e cou n t r y con s is t en t ly during pa s t s even yea r s (Table 26). Th e
impor t s ar e gr owin g a lon g wit h t h e domes t ic pr odu ct ion of t h is in du s t r y s u b-
group, except in 2008-09.
Th e impor t fr om Ch in a h a s been ver y h igh du r in g 2006-08 a n d 2010-11.
Its share in total Chinese import has also doubled in past six years.
Pa g e | 26

Main impor t ed it ems , in t er ms of va lu e, fr om Ch in a a r e Au t o An cilla r y &
Pa r t s , Gea r Boxes a n d Ut ilit y/ Mu lt i-Purpose Vehicles. Th e Au t o An cilla r y &
Parts are increasingly been imported from China.
Table 26. Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers

Years IIP Index

IMP Index EX Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr. EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100 Index Growth Share
2005-06

113.9 450.8 118.2 13.9 350.8 18.2 100.0 0.4
2006-07

134.3 737.5 128.7 17.9 63.6 9.0 261.2 161.2 0.7
2007-08

147.3 1458.1 160.1 9.7 97.7 24.4 464.4 77.8 0.6
2008-09

132.1 2054.9 444.7 -10.3 40.9 177.7 485.2 4.5 0.6
2009-10

153.4 2362.0 488.6 16.2 14.9 9.9 433.5 -10.6 0.7
2010-11

198.5 3692.0 909.0 29.4 56.3 86.1 1150.0 165.3 0.8

Manufacture of other transport equipments
Th e impor t of t h e ot h er t r a n s por t equ ipmen t has in cr ea s ed by 2679% in
2010-11 over t h e ba s e of 2004-05, compa r ed t o IIP in cr ea s ed by 105 % a n d
expor t by 455% (Table 27). Th e impor t a n d t h e expor t gr owt h of t h e t r a n s por t
equ ipmen t is movin g mor e or les s in oppos it e dir ect ion to the IIP du r in g pa s t
seven years. However, there are positive correlation between import growth and
t h e expor t gr owt h of t h e t r a n s por t equ ipmen t s . Th is in dica t es t h a t eit h er t h er e
a r e a la g bet ween domes t ic pr odu ct ion a n d t r a de or t h e impor t is u s ed a s an
in pu t in t h e expor t . Gr owt h of impor t of ot h er t r a n s por t equ ipmen t s fr om
China has been very high during 2007-08, and 2010-11.
Table 27. Manufacture of other transport equipment

Years IIP Index

IMP Index EX Index IIP Gr. IMP Gr. EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100 Index Growth Share
2005-06

105.6 345.8 158.4 5.6 245.8 58.4 100.0 1.4
2006-07

120.3 750.3 178.8 14.0 117.0 12.9 499.3 399.3 1.3
2007-08

123.1 1155.0 211.2 2.3 53.9 18.1 3558.3 612.6 1.8
2008-09

127.2 1778.9 433.7 3.3 54.0 105.4 4903.3 37.8 1.4
2009-10

174.5 1611.5 351.5 37.2 -9.4 -19.0 956.0 -80.5 1.9
2010-11

205.9 2779.6 555.2 18.0 72.5 58.0 2378.1 148.7 3.3

Th e s h a r e of t h e Ch in es e impor t of ot h er t r a n s por t equ ipmen t s in t ot al
Ch in es e impor t s h a ve dou bled in pa s t s ix yea r s . Ma in it ems impor t ed fr om
Ch in a a r e Sh ip Bu ildin g & Repa ir s , Pa r t s

Bicycle, Bicycles , Scoot er a n d
Pa g e | 27

Mopeds a n d Mot or Cycles . Ch in a is becomin g a n impor t a n t s ou r ce of t h e
imports for Bicycles , Pa r t s

Bicycle, Mot or Cycles a n d Sh ip Bu ildin g &
Repairs.
Manufacturing of furniture
The IIP for fu r n it u r e h a s gr own u p by 42% in 2010-11, wh ile expor t h a s
been declining a ft er gr owin g by 67% in 2008-09 over bas e of 2004-05 (Table
28). Th e impor t gr owt h is movin g t oget h er wit h t h e domes t ic pr odu ct ion
gr owt h . Th e gr owt h of t h e impor t fr om Ch in a is a ls o movin g a lon g t h e gr owth
of Import Index.
Ma in it ems of impor t , in t er ms of va lu e, fr om Ch in a a r e Wood Fu r n it u r e,
Pen s of All Kin d, Toot h Br u s h , a n d Gems a n d J eweller y. Wood fu r n it u r e is
increasingly sourced from China.
Table 28. Manufacturing of furniture
Years IIP Index IMP Index EX Index

IIP Gr. IMP Gr.

EX G Chinese Imports
2004-05

100 100 100 Index Growth Share
2005-06

106.8 111.9 102.8 6.8 11.9 2.8 100.0 0.4
2006-07

106.1 111.8 108.6 -0.6 -0.1 5.7 107.3 7.3 0.4
2007-08

120.9 131.3 92.2 14.0 17.5 -15.1 147.6 37.5 0.4
2008-09

131.4 144.1 167.2 8.7 9.8 81.3 152.3 3.2 0.3
2009-10

134.8 122.3 138.2 2.6 -15.1 -17.3 145.7 -4.4 0.4
2010-11

142.2 137.5 108.1 5.4 12.4 -21.8 156.8 7.6 0.4

CONCLUSION
The trends in imports to India shows a surge in cheap Chinese imports of
ma n u fa ct u r in g goods t o In dia , a ccu mu la t ion in In dia s t r a de deficit wit h Ch in a
a n d r is in g r equ es t for in t r odu cin g a n t i du mpin g mea s u r es a ga in s t Ch in es e
impor t s poin t s t h e n eed t o ch eck t h e pr ofile of impor t s fr om Ch in a a n d it s
r ela t ion wit h ou r domes t ic ma n u fa ct u r in g pr odu ct ion s t r u ct u r e. Th e ma jor
qu es t ion of t h is r es ea r ch s t u dy is : How t r en ds in impor t s fr om Ch in a a r e
associated with domestic manufacturing production in India?
A con cor da n ce bet ween ITC (HS) Code for t h e impor t s a n d NIC
cla s s ifica t ion of in du s t r ies a t 5 digit level is developed for la s t 7 yea r s for 268
it ems of IIP a n d impor t s , a n d s epa r a t ely wit h impor t s fr om Ch in a . Th e in dices
for t h e impor t , IIP (268 it ems ) a n d in du s t r y s u bgr ou ps h a ve been con s t r u ct ed.
The export index is taken from an earlier Study by Singhi, M.C. 2011.
Pa g e | 28

Th e in dices of IIP (268 it ems ), Impor t for a ll cou n t r ies (Impor t in dex fr om
now) and Export have grown by 107.8 %, 1773.1 %, and 143.4% respectively in
2010-11 over t h e ba s e of 2004-05. Th e Ch in es e in dex for s a me it ems h a s
gr own by 4618.4% in 2010-11 over t h e ba s e 2005-06, wh ich is mu ch h igh er
t h a n t h e impor t in dex. Th e s h a r e of t h e impor t s of 268 it ems fr om Ch in a in
t ot a l impor t s fr om Ch in a t o In dia h a s ju mped t o 41.3% in 2010-11 fr om 26.3%
in 2005-06.
Th er e a r e en ou gh eviden ce t o s u s pect t h a t impor t s t o In dia fr om ot h er
t h a n Ch in a a r e n ow in cr ea s in gly been r epla ced by ch ea p Ch in es e impor t s .
Th er efor e t h e impor t s t o In dia a r e in cr ea s in g con cen t r a t ed wit h Ch in a . Br oa dly
the Basic Goods and the Intermediate Goods sectors are seems to be negatively
a ffect ed fr om t h e ch ea p Ch in es e impor t s a lon g wit h s ome it ems in t h e Ca pit a l
goods and the Consumer Goods sectors.
Th e la r ges t impor t s fr om Ch in a a r e n ot iced in in du s t r y s u b-gr ou p of
r a dio, t elevis ion a n d commu n ica t ion equ ipmen t , followed by Ma ch in er y a n d
equ ipmen t , office a ccou n t in g a n d compu t in g ma ch in er y, ot h er t r a n s por t
equ ipmen t , elect r ica l ma ch in er y a n d a ppa r a t u s , Ba s ic Met a ls , Fa br ica t ed
met a l pr odu ct s , except ma ch in er y, Ch emica l a n d ch emica l pr odu ct s , mot or
vehicles, trailers and semi-t r a iler s , a n d r u bber a n d pla s t ic pr odu ct s .
***
Pa g e | 29

Annexure
Table 29. Share in Total Imports
2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-
11
IIP (268) 20.0

23.0

23.6

26.5

27.6

25.3

23.0

Basic 3.1

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.6

3.1

2.9

Capital 9.4

11.6

11.7

13.3

11.8

10.7

8.8

Intermediate 4.3

4.2

4.5

4.7

5.1

4.7

4.7

Consumer 3.2

3.5

4.0

5.3

7.1

6.8

6.5

Consumer NON 0.7

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.5

Consumer Durable

2.5

2.8

3.3

4.6

6.5

6.1

6.0

Pa g e | 30

Table 30. Share of imports from China in Total Imports to India
NIC-
5d Item group
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

2008-
09
2009-
10
2010-
11
26915

H.T.Insulators 0.10

85.00

86.30

93.94

30.15

98.17

35921

Bicycles 95.25

93.90

91.00

94.22

95.18

95.06

25204

Pvc/Plastic Suitcases 65.66

79.24

86.04

93.14

93.54

94.07

35923

Parts - Bicycle 82.50

89.66

92.96

88.34

92.11

94.03

17296

Terry Towel 82.57

67.98

46.65

76.40

83.22

90.09

28133

Boilers 24.02

54.84

86.24

93.17

92.01

88.36

34300

Auto Ancillary & Parts 61.73

80.45

80.49

80.70

82.81

82.77

19201

Footwear except leather 76.39

85.74

89.28

84.47

76.88

82.23

30003

Calculators 69.58

38.84

57.84

63.79

80.37

80.43

15209

Glucose(powder&liquid) 1.56

60.11

66.05

30.42

35.29

79.68

25119

Rubber Flaps 61.99

45.86

44.08

42.39

96.14

79.63

31503

Fluorescent Tubes 40.86

52.85

58.99

73.59

80.90

78.07

19201

Leather Shoes 57.18

55.10

54.84

55.24

59.60

74.48

29303

Fans 66.06

65.53

74.68

63.60

74.29

73.96

31109

Battery Charger 59.50

0.14

61.26

87.98

78.96

72.25

25111

Tyre, Truck/Bus 78.06

77.80

88.94

80.88

78.52

71.74

29308

Mixers & Grinders 43.66

39.36

66.41

68.19

74.58

68.72

26921

Refractory Bricks 46.44

64.67

59.41

55.11

69.61

68.49

25113

Tube, Cycle/Rickshaw 21.19

71.10

99.78

66.09

25113

Tyre, Cycle/Rickshaw 16.64

26.96

37.49

45.15

6.40

65.50

30006

Computers 33.81

32.63

36.45

43.52

62.25

65.47

24117

Sodium
Hydrosulphate/Sodium
Hydrosulphite 32.04

54.16

31.19

58.23

67.03

64.20

25111

Tube, Truck 80.00

94.91

94.62

98.83

97.26

60.91

32204

Telephone Instruments
Including Mobile Phone And
Accessories 13.97

20.23

41.41

55.46

61.81

59.66

36101

Wood Furniture 38.96

43.78

48.89

47.22

53.41

59.15

29192

Air Conditioner (Room) 48.03

42.88

62.34

53.99

54.72

57.99

26101

Glass Sheet 82.23

79.54

74.15

61.70

53.45

57.86

24232

Vitamins 47.23

57.42

55.52

62.70

58.46

57.72

26101

Toughened Glass 17.12

36.54

34.87

37.84

41.31

57.40

26911

Porcelain And Ceramic
Sanitary Wares 43.37

52.95

53.74

57.74

63.59

55.63

32309

Amplifier 42.24

45.70

39.97

39.91

42.37

55.37

29198

Heat Exchangers 8.97

20.81

41.71

19.87

9.07

55.18

26993

Grinding Wheels 15.45

39.53

35.00

26.23

1.62

54.35

29195

Packaging Machinery 14.89

9.36

39.68

37.19

27.01

54.35

19122

Leather Bags, Wallets,
Purses 38.11

34.66

33.27

29.15

53.63

53.85

25111

Tyre, Motor Cycle 41.42

29.83

19.87

29.37

33.13

53.41

28997

Pressure Cooker 57.37

39.37

20.64

58.69

12.75

52.85

Pa g e | 31

26102

Fibre Glass 27.03

34.73

48.56

53.45

54.50

50.38

29192

Air Conditioner (Packaged) 37.91

40.50

54.42

44.97

45.88

49.24

27310

C.I. Castings 1.00

33.32

66.81

46.14

93.08

48.07

24114

Dyes 43.60

41.95

44.50

37.86

43.25

47.20

35911

Motor Cycles 6.66

16.57

90.74

83.02

12.99

46.68

31904

Magnets 32.23

32.57

36.09

30.88

42.88

45.88

29306

Chillers 15.53

27.67

22.38

18.19

26.87

44.91

29199

Electric Welding Machines 6.24

27.92

17.15

34.06

49.48

44.31

31300

Fibre Optic Cable 51.72

38.24

2.65

47.96

57.99

43.60

18104

Leather Garments 18.66

28.43

23.40

26.36

62.77

43.17

20211

Plywood 42.97

49.94

39.48

37.34

33.73

43.03

28129

Tin Containers 0.33

69.29

11.18

57.02

4.04

42.67

31103

Electric Motors Phase-I 20.91

23.80

30.68

31.88

31.01

42.50

36997

Tooth Brush 77.14

85.44

73.15

40.11

42.80

41.32

29308

Washing Machines 12.63

16.99

17.51

20.94

27.19

40.50

33130

Cooling Towers 23.91

21.95

19.35

60.68

41.82

40.21

31908

Welding Rods 4.13

11.65

9.48

19.68

28.77

39.76

27203

Aluminium Foils 20.77

34.21

46.63

57.91

29.95

39.46

18101

Apparels 17.85

28.20

23.79

25.36

24.11

39.29

31501

Incandescent Lamp 24.96

24.05

26.95

25.38

31.28

38.57

24243

Whitening Agents 32.31

32.39

32.73

30.81

38.55

38.24

30007

Printers 17.86

7.81

34.25

10.41

4.31

37.83

30007

Computer Peripherals 36.57

19.60

37.78

33.30

24.44

37.53

32102

Power Capacitors 25.00

24.52

34.21

15.01

31.18

37.16

31908

Graphite Electrodes/Anodes

10.06

23.04

29.65

59.78

34.15

37.15

29151

Cranes 10.86

26.05

35.62

50.76

12.44

37.14

36934

Sports Goods, Rubber 13.28

39.34

43.51

51.54

48.07

37.09

28931

Razor Blades/Safety Blades

13.21

15.42

22.14

11.99

38.30

36.88

29119

Turbines & Accessories 12.93

11.71

20.63

32.40

58.69

36.71

36991

Pens of All Kind 30.24

37.43

39.23

35.68

36.28

36.09

27203

Aluminium wires &
extrusions 2.83

8.73

45.86

63.75

42.51

35.50

29151

Lifts/Elevators &
Components thereof 15.77

16.52

30.15

35.03

48.90

35.45

26922

Magnesite, Dead Burnt 58.53

59.31

47.64

39.99

25.79

34.78

28121

Cylinders 21.61

28.12

23.64

43.94

54.05

34.45

29294

Printing Machinery 6.53

9.94

19.55

25.10

26.78

34.41

26933

Glazed Tiles /Ceramic Tiles 66.28

74.33

79.45

76.35

51.98

34.37

35119

Ship Building & Repairs 3.96

3.67

7.88

6.39

12.51

34.10

25111

Tyre, Car/Cab 26.85

37.25

35.86

34.16

38.47

33.22

21015

Straw And Paper Boards of
All Kinds 14.78

19.15

27.14

24.67

27.60

33.03

25202

Plastic Film Excl. Bopp Film 8.36

16.87

12.70

10.89

12.40

31.68

Pa g e | 32

25202

Polythene Bags Incl. Hdpe
& Ldpe Bags 1.42

86.31

62.10

33.04

20.12

31.55

31200

Insulated Cables/Wires all
Kind 25.30

25.45

26.44

38.89

33.54

30.84

29305

Solar Power Systems 7.84

6.12

5.78

6.61

13.69

30.30

29121

Air & Gas Compressors 12.08

16.02

7.76

8.36

29.16

30.18

29262

Textile Machinery 16.59

19.13

19.01

30.67

36.01

30.16

27203

Aluminium Sheets/Plates 20.83

26.78

38.36

38.97

28.08

29.97

35912

Scooter and Mopeds 38.08

83.69

81.93

87.76

55.96

29.64

29131

Industrial Chains 21.31

29.78

22.96

22.46

30.75

28.61

29211

Agricultural Machinery 19.86

15.13

18.65

20.92

45.20

28.04

31104

UPS/Inverter/Converter 20.53

13.02

27.54

25.09

28.79

27.96

29119

Construction
Machine/Equipment 3.44

11.87

13.43

18.38

23.11

27.54

29303

Industrial Blowers 28.55

1.61

23.49

14.84

37.18

26.80

28112

Steel Structures 26.56

31.21

59.09

38.25

54.21

26.71

29191

Forklift 2.76

4.72

9.44

25.36

19.47

26.57

20211

Wood Veneer 4.31

9.80

10.12

7.19

15.11

26.51

31102

Transformers (Small) 52.29

63.26

53.39

59.99

55.54

26.28

27203

Aluminium Tubes/Pipes 15.51

30.12

29.70

35.46

34.73

26.07

26103

Glass Bottles 13.99

21.90

22.37

20.00

21.37

25.74

15135

Squashes, Jams, Jellies,
Ketchups,Etc. 31.80

39.22

54.06

36.12

38.54

25.73

29244

Loaders 40.12

67.90

77.54

9.42

10.97

25.50

15331

Cattle and Poultry Feed 20.67

16.10

20.88

22.14

23.09

24.78

24111

Aniline 16.81

9.69

60.97

22.96

28.34

24.60

29131

Bearings (Ball/Roller) 10.14

11.97

15.07

15.37

20.20

24.33

25202

HDPE Woven Sacks 15.39

24.42

34.13

35.88

27.36

24.14

31103

DC Motors 9.65

18.27

15.27

15.20

21.12

23.90

24219

Rubber Chemical 19.44

24.47

28.42

25.85

25.03

23.88

25209

Plastic Sheets 28.85

23.18

15.67

18.74

16.08

23.83

29306

Refrigerators 8.68

6.86

13.44

17.68

28.40

23.78

31200

Air Break Switches /
Circuit Breakers 24.70

23.99

33.28

30.85

20.19

23.08

24295

Adhesives 10.24

9.19

0.00

0.00

19.61

22.53

31901

Generator/Alternator 2.16

13.71

51.95

26.70

37.76

21.34

26960

Marble Tiles/Slabs 7.79

6.10

17.09

20.91

31.93

20.58

25192

Rubber Transmission And V
Belts 6.09

8.68

9.02

17.55

17.79

19.62

29254

Sugar Machinery 0.56

0.75

0.38

2.46

1.36

19.56

28994

Cock (Faucets) 4.35

7.35

7.25

10.82

16.79

18.99

23109

Carbon Black 3.70

15.50

14.49

19.41

20.66

18.76

31901

Stabilisers 12.55

13.70

18.52

23.23

21.40

18.57

32101

Colour TV Picture Tubes 8.89

16.80

22.90

17.85

17.80

18.25

Steel 4.93

11.53

16.08

16.97

9.09

18.12

Pa g e | 33

33201

Lens of All Kinds 7.85

7.44

5.04

16.00

14.25

17.81

33112

Syringes 6.52

0.66

1.30

12.31

2.63

17.17

32105

IC Chips & Transistors 12.36

8.79

13.14

17.18

21.74

17.14

21098

Computer Stationery 1.69

3.16

6.28

8.67

12.39

16.03

19129

Leather Gloves 7.98

29.12

34.64

23.50

13.97

15.70

25193

Condoms 1.08

2.67

0.05

22.58

32.00

15.69

26942

Cement All Kinds 19.98

34.82

6.47

7.84

24.35

15.39

16003

Cigarettes 12.49

0.05

6.05

5.34

5.29

15.32

15134

Fruit Juices 13.41

20.75

31.05

9.71

12.06

14.80

25202

Plastic Bottles 21.77

15.50

13.00

9.39

11.42

14.54

29121

Pumps (including power
driven pumps) 7.31

6.74

9.64

14.05

14.98

14.50

32109

Printed Circuit Board/Plate 7.03

9.01

11.39

11.75

13.61

14.41

29229

Machine Tools 5.52

7.60

10.61

9.71

12.79

14.40

31103

Relays, Fuses And
Switchgears 10.95

8.54

15.21

17.91

14.52

14.38

31102

Transformers (P.D.T &
Special Type) 2.42

22.08

36.11

31.59

10.36

14.25

25209

PVC Pipes and Tubes 3.24

8.86

28.83

18.09

12.80

14.13

29142

Furnaces 7.92

6.35

11.51

19.19

22.20

14.12

21022

Corrugated and Other
Paper Boxes 22.17

16.73

11.11

16.90

2.74

14.02

31103

Electric Motors(Excl.Phase-
I) 2.90

6.36

12.64

11.78

13.51

13.43

33122

Electric meter of all kinds 29.80

31.97

17.01

42.05

32.23

13.40

33122

Water meter of all kinds 29.80

31.97

17.01

42.05

32.23

13.40

33301

Clock/Watch/Timepiece
Movement 18.97

20.01

17.09

13.79

24.88

12.76

29258

Food Processing Machinery 5.28

5.17

5.16

10.73

13.77

12.67

25191

Hose Pipe 0.97

4.21

79.36

45.30

18.52

12.65

29291

Plastic Machinery Incl.
Moulding Machinery 17.68

20.26

26.79

19.43

12.00

12.50

24232

Antibiotics & It's
Preparations 5.49

20.60

13.76

7.69

4.23

12.33

29251

Dairy Machinery 0.01

4.08

3.93

1.58

2.96

11.69

27203

Aluminium 9.36

10.34

16.57

17.34

11.72

11.63

24112

Sulphuric Acid, Incl. Oleum 0.00

0.00

0.38

0.03

1.03

11.29

29299

Driers 3.47

0.06

18.52

0.02

0.00

11.26

24223

Printing Ink 21.54

23.14

29.77

18.56

31.24

10.95

17297

Elastic Tape 1.34

7.25

25.62

41.72

22.74

10.81

24241

Toilet Soap 5.39

6.55

3.09

2.48

1.60

10.74

27201

Copper and Copper
Products 4.48

6.91

7.00

7.47

8.43

10.48

33112

Medical and Surgical
Equipment (except x-ray) 3.62

4.27

5.13

6.76

7.14

10.10

24248

Agarbattis and Dhoop 17.60

12.43

13.15

16.44

21.37

9.88

33301

Watches 0.88

1.24

12.00

10.35

14.25

9.39

Pa g e | 34

29211

Tractors (complete) 24.33

53.09

17.36

7.33

8.84

8.93

31200

Electrical Switchboard 3.04

14.27

14.85

11.78

18.38

8.19

24297

Leather Finishing
Chemicals & Auxiliaries 0.00

0.00

8.55

19.17

0.01

7.47

28910

Stampings & Forgings 2.02

5.79

2.71

6.19

1.76

7.01

24241

Washing Soap 3.35

2.68

2.91

4.13

6.61

6.82

34300

Gear Boxes 3.99

6.68

4.40

3.41

4.17

6.73

29112

Engines Incl. Internal
Combustion and Diesel
Engine 2.58

4.44

3.19

4.77

5.92

6.48

22110

Books 1.68

3.04

4.12

9.22

7.75

6.30

33121

Valve 4.04

4.02

1.75

2.14

0.28

6.19

15531

Beer 0.01

0.35

1.12

1.46

1.81

6.00

29242

Drilling Equipment 3.57

3.68

2.58

9.62

7.40

5.97

24222

Paints of All Kinds 1.67

3.10

5.19

6.47

5.98

4.95

29249

Mining Equipment 2.51

0.66

27.07

41.43

6.80

4.79

24241

Synthetic Detergents 1.05

0.28

2.74

2.78

1.64

4.40

21012

Writing & Printing Paper 1.23

0.99

1.49

1.28

2.04

4.10

15519

Indust.
Alcohol(Rectified/Denatured
Spirit) 7.01

7.31

5.26

4.50

3.86

4.02

24134

Synthetic Rubber 5.52

2.18

2.36

1.50

1.91

3.77

24132

PVC Resins 11.04

46.28

45.40

17.21

10.82

3.46

27201

Wires (Copper) 1.32

1.77

2.59

3.11

3.04

3.39

20213

Particle Boards 5.36

8.63

4.51

3.08

2.03

3.25

24111

Dissolved Acetylene Gas 0.11

0.07

1.02

0.00

5.71

2.97

24301

Viscose Staple Fibre 10.89

11.42

21.89

3.09

44.95

2.97

21014

Craft Paper(Kraft Paper) 1.48

1.99

3.02

3.11

2.11

2.83

16006

Zarda/ Chewing Tobacco 0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2.63

31300

Cable, Rubber Insulated 0.11

0.60

1.84

28.62

10.75

2.44

24111

Oxygen 0.00

0.00

0.14

0.00

0.49

2.38

19119

Tanned or Chrome Skins
and Leathers 2.73

2.83

2.31

1.50

1.50

2.36

34101

Commercial Vehicles 13.29

16.23

26.37

11.72

8.43

2.25

15433

Instant Food Mixes (Ready
to eat) 1.24

0.39

0.07

12.82

0.80

2.17

21013

Newsprint 0.12

15.85

14.72

16.71

10.12

2.07

25111

Tyre, Tractor Front 85.02

85.32

15.51

30.81

2.07

15532

Indian made Foreign Liquor

0.04

28.68

0.01

0.39

0.12

1.99

24118

Glycerine 0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.83

15412

Biscuits 2.12

5.93

15.70

5.71

1.61

1.68

17223

Woollen Carpets 2.64

0.00

23.24

28.21

0.11

1.65

15541

Aerated Waters & Soft
Drinks 3.52

0.65

1.97

0.00

0.26

1.59

34104

Utility/Multi-Purpose
Vehicles 0.69

2.33

2.59

3.17

0.90

1.58

Pa g e | 35

25111

Tyre, Tractor, Rear 20.63

5.27

0.88

18.71

3.08

1.51

24246

Tooth Paste 0.09

2.70

3.63

0.51

0.05

1.47

15494

Malted Foods 0.21

0.75

1.67

1.66

3.53

1.47

24118

Fatty Acid 1.44

1.46

0.66

0.54

2.01

1.22

15432

Chocolate 3.68

10.06

16.52

3.93

0.62

0.87

36911

Gems And Jewellery 0.49

0.29

0.15

0.39

0.79

0.86

19201

Shoe Uppers (Leather) 6.05

41.24

30.27

61.27

0.00

0.81

21012

Pulp Rayon Grade 2.82

4.32

0.30

0.01

1.28

0.80

15321

Starch 0.02

1.61

4.09

0.39

0.24

0.73

24112

Phosphoric Acid 0.26

0.26

0.25

0.72

0.26

0.63

15311

Bran 0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.57

Petrolium Product 1.43

2.04

1.50

1.17

0.39

0.57

33111

X-ray equipment 1.26

0.13

0.21

0.11

0.33

0.42

24233

Ayurvedic Medicaments 2.00

0.45

0.88

1.14

0.12

0.25

26960

Granites 0.97

0.81

0.00

3.11

0.68

0.20

15493

Cashew Kernels 0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.20

34103

Passenger Cars 0.04

0.00

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.13

24245

Tooth Powder 0.00

0.00

0.05

0.00

0.13

0.06

28991

Fasteners (Excl. Zip-
Fastener) 1.70

0.00

2.38

4.68

1.79

0.04

***