THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY

OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS

THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD


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THE
FIELD
POLL
Release #2490 Release Date: Friday, October 31, 2014
HEAVY SUPPORT FOR PROP. 1 (WATER
BONDS). BIG SWING TO THE NO SIDE ON
PROP. 45 (HEALTH INSURANCE RATE
CHANGES) AND PROP. 46 (DRUG TESTING
OF DOCTORS/MEDICAL NEGLIGENCE
LAWSUITS). CONTINUING SUPPORT FOR
PROP. 47 (CRIMINAL SENTENCES).
IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is
subject to revocation if publication or broadcast
takes place before release date or if contents are
divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff
prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)
By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field
In its final statewide survey before next Tuesdays election, The Field Poll finds continuing strong
support for Proposition 1, the state water bonds ballot measure. One week before the election 54%
of likely voters say they will be voting Yes, just 22% are intending to vote No, while 24% are
undecided. These results are similar to a Field Poll completed earlier this fall.
On the other hand, in the face of heavy campaign advertising, voter sentiment has turned completely
around with regard to two other health-related ballot initiatives Proposition 45, Health Insurance
Rate Changes, and Proposition 46, Drug Testing of Doctors/Medical Negligence Lawsuits. In the
latest poll, voters have moved to vote No on both measures. In the case of Prop. 45, 30% of likely
voters are now in favor, while 42% are opposed and 28% remain undecided. On Prop. 46, 32% are
intending to vote Yes, 49% are on the No side and 19% are undecided. Both measures were
supported by wide margins in the summer.
Voters continue to support another statewide ballot initiative, Proposition 47, the Criminal
Sentences initiative. The poll finds 51% of likely voters on the Yes side, 23% opposed and 26%
undecided.
These are the topline findings from The Field Polls final pre-election survey reporting likely voter
preferences on various statewide ballot propositions to be decided in next weeks election.


The Field Poll #2490
Friday, October 31, 2014 Page 2
Note: Prop. 1 not measured in Late June/early July Field Poll. Prop. 47 not measured in Late August/early September Field Poll.

Proposition 1 (Water Bonds)
Proposition 1 would authorize $7.5 billion in general obligation bonds for state water supply
infrastructure projects and drinking water protection.
Support for the proposal is extremely broad-based, with large majorities or pluralities across all
major voter subgroups lining up on the Yes side. Support is greatest among Democrats, strong
liberals, voters under age 30 and the states ethnic voter populations. But, it is also receiving
majority support from precinct and mail ballot voters, and voters in both Southern and Northern
California.
The only major subgroup where opponents outnumber supporters are voters who identify
themselves as strongly conservative in politics, who oppose it narrowly.

Table 1
Trend of likely voter preferences toward selected statewide ballot
propositions in the November 2014 general election
Voting
Yes
Voting
No

Undecided
Prop. 1 (Water Bonds)
Late October 54% 22 24
Late August/early September 52% 27 21

Prop. 45 (Health Insurance Rate Changes)
Late October 30% 42 28
Late August/early September 41% 26 33
Late June/early July 69% 16 15

Prop. 46 (Drug Testing of Doctors/Medical Negligence Lawsuits)
Late October 32% 49 19
Late August/early September 34% 37 29
Late June/early July 58% 30 12

Prop. 47 (Criminal Sentences)
Late October 51% 23 26
Late June/early July 57% 24 19
The Field Poll #2490
Friday, October 31, 2014 Page 3
* Small sample base.
Table 2
Likely voter preferences on Proposition 1 Water Bonds
(Late October 2014)
Voting Yes Voting No Undecided
Total statewide 54% 22 24
Voting method
(.40) Precinct voter 51% 21 28
(.60) Mail ballot voter 55% 23 22
Party registration
(.43) Democrats 65% 10 25
(.34) Republicans 39% 37 24
(.23) No party preference/other 54% 25 21
Political ideology
(.20) Strongly conservative 36% 41 23
(.11) Moderately conservative 43% 31 26
(.41) Middle-of-the-road 55% 19 26
(.11) Moderately liberal 59% 14 27
(.17) Strongly liberal 72% 9 19
Section
(.57) Southern California 53% 23 24
(.43) Northern California 54% 21 25
Area
(.70) Coastal counties 55% 22 23
(.30) Inland counties 50% 23 27
Region
(.22) Los Angeles County 55% 21 24
(.35) Other Southern California 51% 24 25
(.16) Central Valley 56% 20 24
(.21) San Francisco Bay Area 58% 20 22
(.06) Other Northern California* 37% 30 33
Gender
(.50) Male 57% 27 16
(.50) Female 50% 18 32
Age
(.11) 18 29 65% 18 17
(.14) 30 39 54% 27 19
(.16) 40 49 47% 20 33
(.32) 50 64 48% 24 28
(.27) 65 or older 59% 21 20
Race/ethnicity
(.70) White non-Hispanic 54% 25 21
(.16) Latino 49% 18 33
(.06) African American* 60% 13 27
(.08) Asian American/other* 56% 13 31
The Field Poll #2490
Friday, October 31, 2014 Page 4
Proposition 45 (Health Insurance Rate Changes)
Prop. 45 requires the Insurance Commissioners approval before a health insurer can change its
rates or do anything affecting the charges associated with health insurance.
Opposition to Prop. 45 is greatest among Republicans, strong conservatives, and voters age 65 or
older, where it is opposed by margins of two or three to one. Opponents also significantly
outnumber supporters among independent or no party preference voters and white non-Hispanics.
Several segments of the likely voter population remain supportive of the initiative. This includes
registered Democrats, liberals, voters under age 30, Latinos, Asian-Americans and low income
voters. However, in each case Yes side support does not constitute a majority.


The Field Poll #2490
Friday, October 31, 2014 Page 5
* Small sample base.

Table 3
Likely voter preferences on Proposition 45 Health Insurance Rate Changes
(Late October 2014)
Voting Yes Voting No Undecided
Total statewide 30% 42 28
Voting method
(.40) Precinct voter 26% 41 33
(.60) Mail ballot voter 33% 43 24
Party registration
(.43) Democrats 41% 31 28
(.34) Republicans 19% 56 25
(.23) No party preference/other 26% 43 31
Political ideology
(.20) Strongly conservative 18% 61 21
(.11) Moderately conservative 20% 47 33
(.41) Middle-of-the-road 34% 40 26
(.11) Moderately liberal 33% 28 39
(.17) Strongly liberal 40% 35 25
Area
(.70) Coastal counties 30% 42 28
(.30) Inland counties 30% 45 25
Region
(.22) Los Angeles County 31% 40 29
(.35) Other Southern California 29% 43 28
(.16) Central Valley 29% 48 23
(.21) San Francisco Bay Area 33% 40 27
(.06) Other Northern California* 24% 46 30
Gender
(.50) Male 33% 46 21
(.50) Female 27% 38 35
Age
(.11) 18 29 45% 26 29
(.14) 30 39 28% 46 26
(.16) 40 49 30% 37 33
(.32) 50 64 29% 43 28
(.27) 65 or older 26% 50 24
Race/ethnicity
(.70) White non-Hispanic 27% 47 26
(.16) Latino 39% 30 31
(.06) African American* 36% 38 26
(.08) Asian American/other* 36% 30 34
Household income
(.12) Less than $20,000 37% 35 28
(.15) $20,000 - $39,999 31% 40 29
(.13) $40,000 - $59,999 37% 41 22
(.22) $60,000 - $99,999 23% 48 29
(.26) $100,000 or more 31% 43 26
The Field Poll #2490
Friday, October 31, 2014 Page 6
Proposition 46 (Drug Testing of Doctors/Medical Negligence Lawsuits)
This measure requires drug and alcohol testing of doctors and a review of a statewide prescription
database before controlled substances can be prescribed. It also increases the current $250,000 limit
on pain and suffering damages in medical negligence lawsuits to account for inflation.
Majorities or pluralities of voters across all parties, political ideologies, regions, age and education
segments, as well as both men and women, are now opposing Prop 46. The only voter segments
where supporters outnumber opponents of the initiative are Latinos, African-Americans and voters
under age 30.

The Field Poll #2490
Friday, October 31, 2014 Page 7
* Small sample base.

Table 4
Likely voter preferences on Proposition 46 Drug Testing of Doctors/
Medical Negligence Lawsuits (Late October 2014)
Voting Yes Voting No Undecided
Total statewide 32% 49 19
Voting method
(.40) Precinct voter 29% 49 22
(.60) Mail ballot voter 34% 48 18
Party registration
(.43) Democrats 38% 43 19
(.34) Republicans 24% 55 21
(.23) No party preference/other 31% 50 19
Political ideology
(.20) Strongly conservative 25% 59 16
(.11) Moderately conservative 33% 42 25
(.41) Middle-of-the-road 33% 46 21
(.11) Moderately liberal 36% 42 22
(.17) Strongly liberal 31% 52 17
Area
(.70) Coastal counties 32% 48 20
(.30) Inland counties 31% 49 20
Region
(.22) Los Angeles County 39% 43 18
(.35) Other Southern California 27% 50 23
(.16) Central Valley 27% 55 18
(.21) San Francisco Bay Area 36% 46 18
(.06) Other Northern California* 31% 53 16
Gender
(.50) Male 32% 53 15
(.50) Female 31% 44 25
Age
(.11) 18 29 47% 39 14
(.14) 30 39 42% 42 16
(.16) 40 49 32% 44 24
(.32) 50 64 26% 50 24
(.27) 65 or older 26% 57 17
Race/ethnicity
(.70) White non-Hispanic 25% 55 20
(.16) Latino 52% 32 16
(.06) African American* 49% 29 22
(.08) Asian American/other* 40% 38 22
Education
(.16) High school graduate or less 37% 42 21
(.34) Some college/trade school 32% 47 21
(.24) College graduate 28% 51 21
(.26) Post-graduate work 31% 52 17
The Field Poll #2490
Friday, October 31, 2014 Page 8
Proposition 47 (Criminal Sentences)
This initiative requires a misdemeanor instead of a felony sentence for certain drug and property
offenses. It does not apply to persons with a prior conviction for serious or violent crime and
registered sex offenders.
Prop. 47 receives its strongest backing from the states Democrats, non-partisans, liberals, ethnic
voters, those under age 50, and voters in Los Angeles County, the San Francisco Bay Area and
other parts of Northern California. While voters who identify themselves as strongly conservative in
politics are evenly divided on the measure, all other major subgroups are backing the initiative.

The Field Poll #2490
Friday, October 31, 2014 Page 9
* Small sample base.

30

Table 5
Likely voter preferences on Proposition 47 Criminal Sentences
(Late October 2014)
Voting Yes Voting No Undecided
Total statewide 51% 23 26
Voting method
(.40) Precinct voter 52% 18 30
(.60) Mail ballot voter 51% 26 23
Party registration
(.43) Democrats 58% 16 26
(.34) Republicans 38% 35 27
(.23) No party preference/other 58% 20 22
Political ideology
(.20) Strongly conservative 38% 39 23
(.11) Moderately conservative 43% 33 24
(.41) Middle-of-the-road 51% 23 26
(.11) Moderately liberal 62% 7 31
(.17) Strongly liberal 66% 11 23
Area
(.70) Coastal counties 55% 21 24
(.30) Inland counties 44% 28 28
Region
(.22) Los Angeles County 55% 21 24
(.35) Other Southern California 48% 27 25
(.16) Central Valley 42% 28 30
(.21) San Francisco Bay Area 60% 17 23
(.06) Other Northern California* 56% 15 29
Gender
(.50) Male 56% 27 17
(.50) Female 47% 20 33
Age
(.11) 18 29 63% 18 19
(.14) 30 39 63% 17 20
(.16) 40 49 56% 15 29
(.32) 50 64 48% 25 27
(.27) 65 or older 43% 31 26
Race/ethnicity
(.70) White non-Hispanic 50% 25 25
(.16) Latino 57% 19 24
(.06) African American* 59% 18 23
(.08) Asian American/other* 54% 16 30
The Field Poll #2490
Friday, October 31, 2014 Page 10
Information About The Survey
Methodological Details
The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll completed October 15-28, 2014 among 1,536 registered
voters in California, 941 of whom are considered likely to vote in the November 2014 general election. Interviews
were administered by telephone using live interviewers in English and Spanish.
Individual voters were sampled at random from listings derived from the statewide voter registration rolls. Once a
voters name and telephone number had been selected, interviews were attempted with voters on their landline or
cell phone depending on the source of the listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. Up to six
attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of
day during the interviewing period. After the completion of interviewing, the sample was weighted to
demographic, geographic and party registration characteristics of the state's overall registered voter population.
Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and the
percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the likely voter sample is
+/- 3.4 percentage points. These estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling distribution
(i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at or near either end of the tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to
10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys of
public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to
minimize these other possible errors.
The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor. The
Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The
Field Poll receives financial support from leading California newspapers and television stations, who purchase the
rights of first release to Field Poll reports in their primary viewer or readership markets. The Poll also receives
funding from the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from
each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes, as well as from
foundations, non-profit organizations, and others as part of the Polls policy research sponsor program.
Questions Asked
Proposition 1 is called Water Bond, Funding for Water Quality, Supply, Treatment and Storage Projects. It
authorizes 7.5 billion dollars in general obligation bonds for state water supply infrastructure projects, including
surface and groundwater storage, ecosystem and watershed protection and restoration, and drinking water
protection. Fiscal Impact: Increased state bond costs averaging 360 million dollars annually for 40 years. Local
government savings for water-related project, likely averaging a couple hundred million dollars annually over the
next few decades. (IF LIKELY TO VOTE) If the election were being held today, would you vote YES or NO on
Proposition 1? (IF ALREADY VOTED) Did you vote YES or NO on Proposition 1?
Proposition 45 is the Health Care Insurance; Rate Changes initiative. It requires the Insurance Commissioners
approval before a health insurer can change its rates or do anything else affecting the charges associated with
health insurance. It provides for public notice, disclosure and hearing, and subsequent judicial review, and
exempts employer large group health plans. Fiscal impact: Increased state administrative costs to regulate health
insurance, likely not exceeding the low millions of dollars annually, funded from fees paid by health insurance
companies. (IF LIKELY TO VOTE) If the election were being held today, would you vote YES or NO on Proposition
45? (IF ALREADY VOTED) Did you vote YES or NO on Proposition 45?
Proposition 46 is the Drug and Alcohol Testing of Doctors; Medical Negligence Lawsuits initiative. It requires
drug testing of doctors and a review of a statewide prescription database before prescribing controlled substances.
It increases the 250 thousand dollar pain and suffering cap in medical negligence lawsuits to account for inflation.
Fiscal impact: State and local government costs from raising the cap on medical malpractice damages, ranging
from tens of millions to several hundred million dollars annually, offset to some extent by savings from
requirements on health care providers. (IF LIKELY TO VOTE) If the election were being held today, would you vote
YES or NO on Proposition 46? (IF ALREADY VOTED) Did you vote YES or NO on Proposition 46?
Proposition 47 is the Criminal Sentences, Misdemeanor Penalties initiative. It requires a misdemeanor sentence
instead of a felony for certain drug and property offenses and is inapplicable to persons with a prior conviction for
serious or violent crime, and registered sex offenders. Fiscal impact: State and county criminal justice savings
potentially in the high hundreds of millions of dollars annually. (IF LIKELY TO VOTE) If the election were being
held today, would you vote YES or NO on Proposition 47? (IF ALREADY VOTED) Did you vote YES or NO on
Proposition 47?