VOTING

BEHAVIOR
Factors and biases
affecting the voting
behavior of people

Group 5
Gursartaj Singh Nijjar (1311091)
Lavanya (1311097)
Raj Kumar (1311111)
Shrikant Vijayrao Nikade (1311123)
02ndDecember 2013

Anup Unnithan Chandramohanan (1311134)

Table of Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 3
Objective .................................................................................................................................... 3
Scope and Methodology ............................................................................................................ 3
Factors affecting Voting behaviour ........................................................................................... 4
Analysis...................................................................................................................................... 5
Demographics of respondents ................................................................................................ 5
Hypothesis.................................................................................................................................. 6
1. Analysis of factors influencing voter preference for Narendra Modi ............................. 6
2. Analysis of factors influencing Vote preference for Rahul Gandhi ................................ 7
3. Analysis of voters behaviour of sharing political views on social media ...................... 8
4. Analysis of voter behaviour depending on its profession and family income................. 9
5. Experiment checking offering none of the above option ............................................ 11
Limitations of study ................................................................................................................. 13
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 13
Appendix .................................................................................................................................. 14
Survey Voting behaviour - General Election ........................................................................... 16

Introduction
General election is the biggest political event in India. Being the largest democracy makes it
even more important. This makes voting behaviour an important area of research in field of
political science and psychology. Studying voting behaviour can explain why certain
decisions are made by voters and why political parties adopt certain ways to attract voters. To
carry out the study and draw inferences about behaviour concerned to voting decision, certain
factors such as gender, religion, region, culture etc need to be considered. Apart from these,
key influencers such as emotion, political socialization, media, and diverse political views
play major roles. The study focuses mainly on establishing a relation between different
factors discussed above and the voting pattern of individuals. We are also trying to find out
certain biases such as status quo through a separate experiment. The results would be very
helpful for general public as well as political parties. The study may help voters to take
informed decision by taking into account the biases and effect of different factors. Political
parties can design and define their strategies accordingly to have anticipated impact on the
public and hence get desired result.

Objective
1. To study what factors influence the voting behaviour of people
2. To analyse how social media influence political behaviour of people
3. To study the impact of offering none of the option to voters when the candidates are
not strong or deviate from party ideology

Scope and Methodology

The scope of the study includes the voting population of our country. To meet the objectives
stated above the responses of the people were recorded through online form and specially
designed questionnaire. The online form asked the voters about their demographic data,
income, profession, friends opinion etc and preference for party, candidate. It also asked the
voters about their political activities on internet and social media and how does it influence
their voting decision. Two questionnaires were presented to people with the character sketch
of two different candidates from different parties. First questionnaire asked the people to
choose the candidate with third option none placed at last. The second questionnaire kept
the none option at first but preselected. The basic idea behind this questionnaire is to find
the difference between the voting behaviour of people when none option is made available.

Factors affecting Voting behaviour

A persons decision on whom to vote depends on multiple factors in his or her immediate
surroundings. These factors influence people to alter their decisions or help to strengthen
them. The voters demographic factors, his sex, age, family background, location, friend
circle, financial condition, religion, profession, influence of social media are some of the
factors which impact his voting behaviour. His voting decision also depends on his
perception about the candidate. The candidates past experience, the party which he belongs
to, his image in public, his personality are some of the factors which decide whether people
will vote for him or not. Of all these, some of the major factors which influence peoples
voting behaviour are briefly explained below:
Voter
1. Religion Religion is one of the crucial factors in India. Some parties are perceived
as secular and working for the benefits of people of all castes and religions. Some
parties are considered as non secular and biased for certain sets of people.
2. Profession- Profession also influences peoples voting decisions. Working class
perceives some parties as beneficial for them while people owning their own
businesses consider some other parties as better.
3. Family background and friend circle- Some peoples voting decisions depends on
which parties or candidates their families support. Talks in friend circle about a
certain party or a candidate also influences voting decisions.
4. Location- Some parties are considered very strong in certain regions in India. Even if
other parties try to do their level best to influence people, they fail to do it.
5. Influences of Social Media- Many parties are hiring advertising companies to create,
maintain or improve their image on social media. Of about 150 million people today
use internet in India, 65 million people are on facebook and 35 million people
approximately use twitter. According to a study, 45% of people connect on social
media to discuss politics. Thus social media forms a very important element
influencing voters decisions and has become a crucial factor for parties and
individual candidates to plan their strategies.

Candidate
1. Political Party- Some people have preferences for certain political party. The voting
decision for them depends mostly on the party to which the candidate belongs to and
nothing else.
2. Candidates past work/ experience- Some people value candidates past experience
more than anything else. They analyse the past work of the candidate before voting.
3. Personality of the candidate- The overall personality of the candidate is also an
important factor for voters. For them, it determines his eligibility and his decision
making powers.
4. General perception about the candidate and image on social media- The general
perception about the candidate does influence the voting decisions of certain people.
This perception is sometimes created by social media. Some leaders are always talked
about positively in social media and they maintain a very clean image through this.
Candidates also try to connect with the voters frequently on social media and project
their good work continuously. Some candidates who fail to do so or are projected in
bad light on various social mediums create a bad image for themselves. This can play
as a catalyst and influence vast majority of people very quickly.

Analysis
The objectives of this study have been achieved by using the primary data collected through
the survey conducted. The right statistical tools such as regression analysis, F-test and t-stat
test have been used to prove or disprove the hypothesis set so as to reach the objectives.
Demographics of respondents

Age

Gender

Family Income (INR Lac PA)

14%

69%

18-25

21%

24%

31%

25-35

29%

76%

Male

Female

0-5

5-10

36%

10-20

> 20

Profession
4%
9%

6%

7%
74%

Student

Self-employed

Salaried Non-Govt

Govt

Other

Religion
5%

1%

7% 5%

82%

Hindu

Muslim

Sikh

Christian

Others

Hypothesis
1) Factors influencing voter preference for Narendra Modi
2) Factors influencing Vote preference for Rahul Gandhi
3) Factors affecting Voters behaviour of sharing political views on social media
4) Factors affecting voter behaviour depending on its profession and family income
5) Effect of None of the above option

1. Analysis of factors influencing voter preference for Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi is the prime ministerial candidate of BJP. He is one of the most important
national leaders of today. BJP is relying a lot on him for turning the results of next parliament
election towards themselves and once again come in power.
The study is to find out which factors are really influencing the decision of people while
voting in favour of Narendra Modi.

Hypothesis
Party, past performance, personality, clean image, anti-incumbency affect the voting decision
of people while deciding their vote for Narendra Modi.
Model (Only includes significant variables)
Modi_vote = 0.3559 + 0.3544 * Imp_Party + 0.5646 * Imp_Pastperf
Dependent variable
Modi_vote: votes in favour of Narendra Modi
Independent variable

Imp_Party : importance of party

Imp_Pastperf: importance of past performance
Imp_Pers: importance of performace
Imp_CleanImg: importance of clean image
Antiincumbency: anti-incumbency factor

From the regression analysis (included in appendix) it can be deducted that out of all the
factors, only party and past performance of Narendra Modi significantly drive the voters in
his favour.

2. Analysis of factors influencing Vote preference for Rahul Gandhi

We have already seen that the factors which affect the voting behaviour of people include the
candidates party, his past performance, clean image etc. In our primary data collected (online
survey), we took voters views on these factors. We asked them to rate on the scale of 1 to 5 (1
being strongly disagree and 5 being strongly agree) the factors like candidates party, past
performance, candidates clean image, candidates personality and the antiincumbancy effect
that exist against Congress, which influences their decision to vote.
Rahul Gandhi is perceived as the prime ministerial candidate by most of the people. Congress
too rely largely on him, and is said to lead congress in the coming elections.
To check, which of the above factors actually affects the voting behaviour for voters for
Rahul Gandhi, we regressed all these factors against the factor that them voting Rahul Gandhi
in the election (included in appendix).

Model (Only includes significant variables)

RG_Vote = 2.6765 + 0.3745 * Imp_CleanImg - 0.4100 * Antiincumbency
Dependent variable
Modi_vote: votes in favour of Rahul Gandhi
Independent variable:

Imp_Party : importance of party

Imp_Pastperf: importance of past performance
Imp_Pers: importance of performace
Imp_CleanImg: importance of clean image
Antiincumbency: anti-incumbency factor

From the regression analysis, we find that only the clean image and the antiincumbancy
factor against congress are the only significant factors which influences voters decision to
vote for Rahul Gandhi. The coefficient for antiincumbancy factor is negative, which shows
that though the factor is significant, as the factor becomes more negative, the voters
inclination to vote for Rahul Gandhi decreases.

3. Analysis of voters behaviour of sharing political views on social media

Hypothesis:
BJP supporters share articles which portray positive image of Narendra Modi.
To test this we performed a regression keeping the 5 articles as dependent variables and votes
to Narendra Modi as the independent variable. Some of the headlines were hypothetical to
test whether people would share only on basis of content.
Model (Only includes significant variables)
Modi_vote = 2.5820 - 0.2915 * Share1 + 0.4517 * Share3
From the regression analysis, the p value is significant only in case of articles 1 and 3. Article
1 was against Narendra Modi, which is seen in the negative value of its coefficient. Article 2
was in favor and hence the positive coefficient. But, articles 2 and 4 are not significant.

Hypothesis
Congress supporters share articles, which portray positive image of Rahul Gandhi.
To test this we performed a regression keeping the 5 articles as dependent variables and votes
to Rahul Gandhi as the independent variable.
From the regression analysis, the p value is significant only in case of article 1 only. Article 1
was against Narendra Modi, which is seen in the positive value of its coefficient. But, articles
2,3,4 and 5 are not significant.

Model (Only includes significant variables)

Modi_vote = 2.88415 + 0.30159 * Share1
Dependent variable
Modi_vote: votes in favour of Narendra Modi
Independent variable
The independent variables are likelihood of people to share the following news:
Share1:Cobrapost reveals how Narendra Modi Manipulated social media Source:bbc.co.uk
Share2: Cobrapost article is just a propaganda against BJP, says LK Advani,
source:indiatoda.intoday.in
Share 3: Congress MLA paid Rs 25000 to buy 10K likes!, Source: ra-say.blogspot.in
Share4 : BJP employed 11 agencies to ensure favourable articles and editorials,
source:the.deshbhakt.wordpress.in
Share 5: the next government will be an unstable one, sources: the-truth-revealed.blog.com

4. Analysis of voter behaviour depending on its profession and family income

Objective:To study if Modi is equally popular among young voters and professionals and to
distinguish his popularity among people in different family income groups.
For any political party, the youth and students are active stakeholders for coming to power.
Narendra Modi is considered to be very popular among the youth for his firebrand

speeches.However, recent media reports speculate that NaMo is losing steam building up to
the elections as the crowds at his recent rallies are dwindling1.
Traditionally the upper income groups show variation in voting patterns when compared to
weaker sections of the society, especially in times of growing inflation and slowdown of
economy. The urban-high income brackets may support industrialization and the Gujarat
model. The identification of this trend can help political party address issues relevant to the
target group & garner support.
Hypothesis
a) Ho: Narendra Modi is equally popular among the youth/students and professionals.
Result:
p1= The proportion of respondents among students in favour of Modi.
p2= The proportion of respondents among professionals in favour of Modi.
n1= The number of students.
n2= The number of professionals.
x1= Number ofrespondents among students in favour of Modi.
x2= Number of respondents among professionals in favour of Modi.

Survey 1
Survey 2

) (

X
36
7

N
58
20

P
0.62
0.35

P cap=0.55
Z=2.0988
We conduct a two-tailed test for the above values. This value corresponds to a significance
level of 2% and shows that we can conclude with 98% confidence that being a professional
impacts the choice of candidate.

b) Narendra Modi is more popular among the high family income group (>5 lakh) than
in low income group (<5 lakh)
Result:
1

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/bjp-pm-candidate-narendra-modi-agra-rally-mulayam-singhyadav/1/325877.html

10

p1= The proportion of respondents among high income group in favour of Modi.
p2= The proportion of respondents among low income group in favour of Modi.
n1= The number of people in high income group.
n2= The number of people in low income group.
x1= Number of respondents in high income groupin favour of Modi.
x2= Number of respondents in low income group in favour of Modi.

Survey 1
Survey 2

) (

X
25
20

n
54
34

p
0.568
0.588

P cap=0.5769
Z= 0.177
For a two-tailed test this value suggests very low confidence interval ~12% for rejecting the
null hypothesis.
Thus we conclude there is no difference between high and low income group in terms of
popularity of Modi.

5. Experiment checking offering none of the above option

To study the impact of offering none of the option to voters when the candidates are not
strong or deviate from party ideology.
Relevance
There many times candidates with controversial past contest and win as voters do not have a
third alternative. According to a report in Times of India, about 40% candidates of 2004
assembly elections had previous criminal records2.The 2014 assembly elections will be the
first time NOTA or None of the above option will be provided to candidates. The voter will

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2004-04-17/mumbai/28346695_1_candidates-face-criminalcharges-lok-sabha-candidates-democratic-reforms-adr

11

have an option to reject all candidates by pressing NOTA on EVM machine with NOTA
option provided after the last candidates name in the ballot3.
The study is to assess the impact of providing explicit information and publicity about the
option to voters prior to voting and providing a None of the below option instead. A strong
influence will make it mandatory for parties to contest elections with candidates of strong
credentials.
Hypothesis
The voters irrespective of party affiliation will exercise the none of the option in the same
proportion irrespective of whether the option is provided at the first or at the last to the voter.
Result
p1= The proportion of respondents of survey 1 who voted for None of the above option.
P2= The proportion of respondents of survey 2 who voted for None of the below option.
n1= The proportion of respondents of survey 1.
n2= The proportion of respondents of survey 2.
x1= Number of respondents of survey 1 who voted for None of the above option.
x2= Number of respondents of survey 2 who voted for None of the below option.

) (

)
X

Survey 1

18

44

0.409

Survey 2

31

54

0.574

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/assembly-polls/none-of-the-above-option-in-pink-in-assembly-pollswhite-in-parliamentary-440634

12

P=0.5
Z=1.584
This value corresponds to significance level of 12% for a two-tailed test for a normal
distribution curve. This implies at 88% confidence interval the null hypothesis (Ho) can be
rejected.
With 88% confidence we can say that the voters are more averse to give vote to a candidate
with dubious records when they are offered a None of the below option and well-informed
about the option in advance.

Limitations of study

Limited number of survey respondents: we have taken sample size of 78 people on the
basis of survey responses received.

Reliability of self-reported data: in the study the results are totally relied upon the self
reported data provided by respondents.

In the study, we have limited our focus area to Narendra Modi (BJP candidate) and
Rahul Gandhi (Congress candidate)

Conclusion
We set out to find out whether any trends exist in the voting behaviour exhibited by people.
There are several hypotheses that one can come up with intuitively but we also wanted to test
our intuition mathematically. Based on our hypotheses, we tested the data and came up with
some interesting findings. As expected perception matters. It was Narendra Modis party and
his past performance which influenced people to vote for him, whereas it was Rahul Gandhis
clean image which made him a favourite.
We also conducted an experiment which seemed to show that more people thought they had
to make a choice between two candidates, when none of the above was also an option.
However, they chose to exercise their veto power when none of the below was listed first.

13

Appendix
Hypothesis
1) Factors influencing voter preference for Narendra Modi:
Regression Statistics

0.42003
0.17643
0.11923
1.36669
78

R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Total Number Of Cases
ANOVA

d.f.

SS

5.
72.
77.

Regression
Residual
Total

Coefficients

-0.087

0.18013

-0.18309
0.18598

0.23165
0.18446

Imp_Pastperf (1-5)
Imp_Pers (1-5)

2)

Standard
Error

1.54042
0.135
0.18273

Imp_Party (1-5)

Antiincumbency

28.80971
134.48516
163.29487

0.35592
0.35437
0.56459

Intercept

Imp_CleanImg (1-5)

MS

5.76194
1.86785

LCL

2.21088
0.12942
0.2601
0.38716
0.56908
-0.1214

3.0848

p-level

0.01404

UCL

t Stat

2.92272
0.57933
0.86907

0.23105
2.62491
3.08972
0.48299
0.79036
1.00819

0.21315
0.20291
0.49335

Factors influencing Vote preference for Rahul Gandhi

Regression Statistics
R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Total Number Of
Cases

0.37758
0.14257
0.08302
1.09693
78

ANOVA
d.f.
Regression
Residual

5.
72.

SS
14.40457
86.6339

MS
F
p-level
2.88091 2.39428 0.04574
1.20325
14

p-level

0.81793
0.01058
0.00285
0.63057
0.43192
0.31674

Total

Intercept
Imp_Party (1-5)
Imp_Pastperf
(1-5)
Imp_Pers (1-5)
Imp_CleanImg
(1-5)

77.

101.03846

Coefficients
2.67655
0.00572

Standard
Error
1.23637
0.10836

0.11097

0.14666

-0.14613

0.14458

0.37455

0.18593

-0.41001
0.14805
Antiincumbency
T (10%)
1.66629
LCL - Lower value of a reliable interval (LCL)
UCL - Upper value of a reliable interval (UCL)

LCL
UCL
t Stat p-level
0.6164 4.73669 2.16485 0.03371
-0.17484 0.18627 0.05278 0.95806
-0.13341 0.35535 0.75665 0.45173
-0.38704 0.09477 1.01077 0.31551
0.06474 0.68435 2.01449 0.04769
-0.65671 0.16331 2.76932 0.00714

3) Factors affecting Voters behaviour of sharing political views on social media

BJP supporters share articles which portray positive image of Narendra Modi
R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Total Number Of Cases

0.37036
0.13717
0.07725
1.39889
78

ANOVA
d.f.
Regression

5.

SS
22.39916

Standard
Coefficients
Error
LCL
2.582
0.49606
1.75542
Intercept
-0.29147
0.1592
-0.55675
Share1
0.20447
0.13267
-0.01661
Share2
0.45172
0.1963
0.12463
Share3
0.11549
0.17338
-0.17341
Share4
-0.13643
0.16227
-0.40683
Share5
T (10%)
1.66629
LCL - Lower value of a reliable interval (LCL)
UCL - Upper value of a reliable interval (UCL)
Residual
72.
140.89571
Total
77.
163.29487

MS
4.47983
UCL
3.40859
-0.0262
0.42554
0.77881
0.4044
0.13396

F
2.28927

t Stat
5.20499
-1.83086
1.54111
2.30119
0.66612
-0.84077

1.95688

Congress supporters share articles which portray positive image of Rahul Gandhi
15

p-level
0.
0.07126
0.12767
0.02428
0.50746
0.40326

Regression Statistics
R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Total Number Of Cases

0.30229
0.09138
0.02828
1.1292
78

ANOVA
d.f.
Regression
Residual
Total

5.
72.
77.

Coefficients

SS
9.23251
91.80595
101.03846

MS
1.8465
1.27508

Standard
Error

LCL

2.88415
0.34642
Intercept
0.30159
0.13821
Share1
-0.05781
0.1153
Share2
-0.16289
0.14955
Share3
-0.11554
0.1604
Share4
-0.07864
0.13875
Share5
T (10%)
1.66629
LCL - Lower value of a reliable interval (LCL)
UCL - Upper value of a reliable interval (UCL)

2.30691
0.0713
-0.24993
-0.41209
-0.38281
-0.30983

Survey Form

Voting behaviour - General Election

* Required
Age *
o

18-25

25-35

35-50

> 50
Gender *

Male

Female

16

F
1.44814

p-level
0.21762

UCL

t Stat

3.46139
0.53189
0.13431
0.08631
0.15173
0.15255

8.32553
2.18217
-0.5014
-1.08915
-0.72032
-0.56679

p-level
3.78275E12
0.03236
0.61762
0.27972
0.47366
0.57262

Religion *
o

Hindu

Muslim

Sikh

Christian

Other
Profession *

Self-employed

Salaried Non-Government

Government

Student

Other
Family Income (in LPA) *

0-5

5-10

10-20

> 20
Which state were you brought up in? *

Are you influenced with the opinion of your friends in making decisions? *

Strongly disagree

Strongly agree

Select a value from a range of 1,Strongly disagree, to 5,Strongly agree,.

Have you ever voted before? *

o
o

Yes
No
How likely are you to vote in the coming elections? *

1
Very unlikely

Very likely

Select a value from a range of 1,Very unlikely , to 5,Very likely ,.

17

Rate the following based on its importance while voting for a Member of Parliament nominee in
your constituency? *

1 - Least
important

The party he/she

represents
Handling of local
issues/ past
performance
Personality of the
candidate
Clean image of the
candidate
How likely are you to vote for BJP? *

Very unlikely

Very likely

Select a value from a range of 1,Very unlikely , to 5,Very likely ,.

How likely are you to vote for Congress? *

1
Vey unlikely

Very likely

Select a value from a range of 1,Vey unlikely , to 5 ,Very likely ,.

Your parents are most likely to vote for? *

o

BJP

Congress

o
o

Others
Do you feel Gujarat Model is right for the country AND should be replicated? *
Yes
No
Do you feel a strong third alternative is required in the 2014 General Elections? *

18

5 - Most
important

Yes

No

Can't say
Which party you think should lead the Central Government? *

BJP

Congress

Other
According to you, which candidate do you feel is ideal to be the Prime Minister? *

Rahul Gandhi

Narendra Modi

Other
How many hours on an average do you spend on internet daily? *

0-2

2-5

5-10

o
o

> 10
Are you follower of any political party/ leader on social media? *
Yes
No
How likely are you to share the twitter feed, facebook post or article about your favorite
leader? *

Very unlikely

Very likely

Select a value from a range of 1,Very unlikely , to 5,Very likely ,.

Do you give importance to political news, critics on social media? *

Strongly disagree

Strongly agree

Select a value from a range of 1,Strongly disagree, to 5,Strongly agree,.

Do you feel social media plays an important role in influencing the voting behaviour of people? *

19

Strongly disagree

Strongly agree

Select a value from a range of 1,Strongly disagree, to 5,Strongly agree,.

Do you think a strong anti-incumbency factor (against current government) prevails? *

Strongly disagree

Strongly agree

Select a value from a range of 1,Strongly disagree, to 5,Strongly agree,.

How willing are you to share the following posts on social media? *

Very
likely

Likely

"Cobrapost reveals how

Narendra Modi manipulated
social media"
Source: bbc.co.uk
"Cobrapost article is just a
propaganda against BJP,
says LK Advani"
Source:indiatoday.intoday.in
"Congress MLA paid Rs
25000 to buy 10k likes!"
Source: raj-says.blogspot.in
"BJP employed 11 agencies
to ensure favourable articles
and editorials" Source: thedeshbhakt.wordpress.com
"The next government will
be an unstable one"
Source: the-truthrevealed.blog.com

20

Undecided

Unlikely

Very
unlikely