The Economist November 1st 2014

Zimbabwe

The Mugabe brawl

HARARE

A erce party spat surrounds Africas

oldest leader. Did he engineer it?

HE Mugabe family loves a good

punch-up. The old man, Robert, Zimbabwes president, has always been a brawler, though a sly and eloquent one. His specialism is to set up ambitious underlings in
the ruling Zanu-PF party to ght so that he
can eventually chide them for factionalism
and push aside the likely winner, perpetually eliminating potential rivals. The system has worked well since he took over the
party in 1975. Aged 90 now, he still commands the stage.
His wife, Grace, is a chip o the old
block. Aged 49, she recently started a
punch-up unlike any the party has seen,
forgoing the subtle ambiguities with
which Bob, as he is universally known, has
often wrapped his verbal blows. Her barbs
have been aimed at Joice Mujuru, the 59year-old vice-president, who was handpicked years ago by the old man and until
last month seemed to be the front-runner
in the treacherous race to succeed him.
The rst ladys attacks have been vitriolic in the extreme, even by local standards, suggesting that Ms Mujuru might be
killed and that dogs and eas would not
disturb her carcass. During an ill-tempered cross-country tour, involving ten rallies, the rst lady repeatedly called for the
vice-presidents resignation and endorsed
as a replacement the 68-year-old justice
minister, Emmerson Mnangagwa, one of
the partys hard men.
In 2004 the former spymaster was himself purged as the partys prospective number two under similar circumstances.
Then, as now, the rank-and-le had started
to glance past the president toward possible successors. In the case of Ms Mujuru,
the axe seems to be coming down very
publicly. Front pages of ocial newspapers amplied the rst ladys accusations
ofcorruption, leading many to suspect that
Mr Mugabe, who stayed quiet in public,
had given his consent.
A new twist in the old game is the suggestion that Grace could succeed to the
presidency, establishing a Mugabe dynasty. She was recently made head of the
partys womens league, putting her in the
politburo. She was also awarded a dodgy
doctorate in sociology, based on two
months study, from the University of Zimbabwe (from the hands of her husband).
And posters of her suddenly adorn public
buses. At one rally she asked, why
shouldnt I be president?
But few think the former typist, without

Middle East and Africa 49

liberation-war credentials, is made of the
right stu. Countless nicknames attest to
the popular distaste she evokes: Lady
McGabe, DisGrace, First Shopper (for her
free-spending habits in foreign capitals).
Her recent speeches, seen as unsavoury,
over-the-top and unworthy of a dignitary,
have further tarnished her reputation.
While the vice-president has avoided
responding to the allegations made against
her, surrogates including war veteran leaders have returned re, broadening the
brawl. This is the end game, says Ibbo
Mandaza, a prominent local analyst. But is
it? On October 28th the president stepped
back into the ring. He lambasted his party,
neither mentioning his wife nor protecting
her, but calling for an end to the war. Taking charge, he brought forward a party congress in December by a week. It will settle
the senior line-up for the next ve years.
The talk in Harare is of new rules for nominations to the politburo, even of an entirely new slate. The justice minister, who is
suspected of complicity in the rst ladys
crusade, seems as damaged by the past few
weeks inghting as the vice-president.
The president, meanwhile, looks and
sounds in ne form for his age. Regardless
of who will be elevated or demoted, he has
shown himself to be the ringmaster. Everything must change so that all can remain
the sameuntil the presidents clock runs
out and he can no longer defuse the bombs
he plants. Investors, who are desperately
needed in the ailing economy, are disconcerted either way. Under todays regime,
little can be trusted for long. Yet what
comes after is even less clear. 7

By the Grace of Bob

Ebola

A glimmer of hope

BAMAKO AND FREETOWN

Some rare good news from the Ebola

epidemic

UST two months ago the bodies of Ebola

victims turned away from teeming treatment centres lay dead in the streets of
Monrovia, the capital of Liberia. Now, in
those same facilities, many of the beds lie
empty. Could the outbreak that has so devastated the country nally be subsiding?
It is too early to say for sure but Bruce
Aylward, who leads the World Health Organisations response to the Ebola crisis, is
cautiously optimistic. The number of new
cases in Liberia, which has been hardest
hit, appears to be falling. The data are unreliable since many cases go unreported, not
least because families are afraid of hospitals. But the trend seems real, says Dr Aylward, citing a levelling-o of lab-conrmed cases and a decline in burials. The
Red Cross collected 117 bodies in the last
full week of October in and around Monrovia, compared with a peak of 315 a week.
If the good news is conrmed, changes
in behaviourprodded by a vigorous public-awareness campaignare the likely
cause. Dr Aylward credits a rapid
scale-up in safe burials and reduced contact between the healthy and the ill. Liberia has also isolated a huge number of
Ebola patients and traced many of those
who have come into contact with them.
With beds now lying empty, it may
seem unnecessary for America to full its
promise of building 17 new 100-bed Ebola
treatment centres in Liberia. But Dr Aylward believes the resources are still needed; there is a danger that the disease will be
pushed back in one area only to re-emerge
elsewhere. It has happened before.
The broader epidemic is far from over.
The overall number of infections has risen
to 13,703, from 9,936 a week agothough
this is largely due to the late reporting of
old cases. Almost 5,000 people have died.
In parts of Guinea and Sierra Leone the
number of cases has surged recently. Suspicion runs deep. This week an Ebola ambulance was forced o the road in the Port
Loko district of Sierra Leone after being
stoned by irate youths, unhappy that their
relatives were being taken away. An angry
mob in Freetown ripped down Ebola posters, until police intervened with tear gas.
Meanwhile in Mali, the bus journey of
an infected two-year-old girl from Guinea
has raised worries that the epidemic might
keep spreading. Dr Aylward says the rst
glimmer of hope does not mean that Ebola
has been tamed. Its like saying your pet tiger is under control. 7