NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-02-2014

652

650

648

646

643

640

638

636

634

SYBEANIDR

20-02-2014

3440

3420

3400

3380

3360

3340

3320

3300

3280

RMSEED

20-02-2014

4320

4300

4280

4260

4240

4210

4190

4170

4150

JEERAUNJHA

20-02-2014

15990

15890 15790

15690

15590 15490 15390 15290 15190

CHANA

20-02-2014

3560

3540

3520

3500

3480

3450

3430

3410

3390

CASTORSEED

20-02-2014

5100

5080

5060

5040

5000

4970

4950

4930

4910

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-02-2014

660

656

652

648

644

640

636

632

628

SYBEANIDR

20-02-2014

3520

3480

3440

3400

3360

3320

3180

3140

3100

RMSEED

20-02-2014

4370

4330

4300

4280

4240

4200

4160

4120

4080

JEERAUNJHA

20-02-2014

16300

16100 15900

15700

15500 15300 15100 14900 14700

CHANA

20-02-2014

3620

3580

3540

3500

3460

3420

3380

3340

3300

CASTORSEED

20-02-2014

5150

5100

5050

5000

4950

4900

4850

4800

4750

 MCX DAILY LEVELS

DALLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-01-2015 119

118

117

116

115

114

113

112

111

COPPER

27-02-2015 404

402

400

398

396

394

392

390

388

CRUDE OIL

16-01-2015 3450

3430

3410

3390

3370

3350

3330

3310

3290

GOLD

05-02-2015 27400

27300

27200

27100

27000

26800

26700

26600

26500

LEAD

30-01-2015 121

120

119

118

117

115

114

113

112

NATURAL GAS 27-01-2015 204

203

202

201

200

199

198

197

196

NICKEL

30-01-2015 975

950

930

910

880

860

840

820

800

SILVER

05-03-2015 37400

37200

37000

36800

36600

36400

36200

36000

35800

ZINC

30-01-2015 143

142

141

140

139

138

137

136

135

S2

S3

S4

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

ALUMINIUM

30-01-2015

123

121

COPPER

27-02-2015

410

406

CRUDE OIL

16-01-2015

3520

GOLD

05-02-2015 27900

LEAD

30-01-2015

124

122

NATURAL GAS

27-01-2015

208

206

NICKEL

30-01-2015

1050

SILVER

05-03-2015

ZINC

30-01-2015

R2
119

R1

PP

S1

117

115

113

111

109

107

402

399

396

393

390

387

384

3490

3460

3430

3400

3270

3240

3210

3180

27700

27500

27300

27100

26800

26600

26400

26200

118

116

114

112

110

108

204

202

200

198

196

194

192

1010

980

940

900

860

840

800

760

38100

37700

37300

37000

36600

36300

36000

35700

35400

147

145

143

141

139

137

135

133

131

120

 MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
US Unemployment Claims rose to 298,000 in the last week. Chicago PMI fell to 58.3-mark in
December from 60.8 levels in November. Pending Home Sales gained 0.8 percent in November
as compared to a decline of 1.2 percent in October.
Activity in China's factory sector shrank for the first time in seven months in December, a
private survey showed on Wednesday, highlighting the urgency behind a series of surprise
easing moves by Beijing in the past two months.
Crude inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts'
expectations for an decrease of 67,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 3.0 million barrels,
compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a gain of 2.1 million barrels.
Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.9 million barrels, versus
expectations for a 1.5 million barrel increase, the EIA data showed.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the risk of the central bank not fulfilling
its mandate of preserving price stability was higher now than half a year ago, and reiterated its
readiness to act early this year should it become necessary.

1.
1.
2.
3.

Major global markets remain closed yesterday on New Years Eve.

LME Copper stocks jumped by a whopping 2.8 percent on Tuesday.
US Unemployment Claims rose to 298,000 in the last week.
Selling of the greenback by exporters supports Indian Rupee

The US Dollar Index (DX) traded higher by 0.4 percent on Wednesday owing to rise in risk
aversion in the market sentiments that led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency.
However, mixed economic data restricted sharp upside. The currency touched an intra day high
of 90.67 and closed at 90.65 on Wednesday.
PRECIOUS METALS
Spot silver prices declined by 3.7 percent and closed at $15.7/oz. The fall was in tandem with
falling gold prices. Strength in the dollar index coupled with weakness in the base metals pack
exerted downside pressure on prices.
On the MCX, silver prices gained by 3.65 percent on Thursday and closed at Rs.36210/10 gms.
Gold fell 1.5 percent on pressure from weak oil prices and gains in the U.S. dollar on
Wednesday, and was poised to end 2014 down a slight 2 percent after falling below $1,200 an
ounce.

The impact of a stronger dollar was partially offset by demand from investors worried about
tensions in Russia and political uncertainty in Greece. Bullion was on track for a small fall this
year after a turbulent 2013, when prices fell by a third following 12 years of gains.
Gold's main driver in 2014 has been a buoyant dollar, which was poised to post its biggest
yearly gain since 2005, and anticipated U.S. interest rate hikes may strengthen the greenback's
appeal in the coming year. Higher rates weigh on non-interest-bearing bullion.

BASE METAL
Copper was set to end 2014 with a loss of nearly 15 percent, its worst annual decline in three
years, on concerns that a supply surplus will hit the market next year just as Chinese economic
growth shifts down another gear.
Losses in copper, the most widely followed metal, were set to be exceeded only by lead - a
market that was in surplus in the year to September - while nickel was poised to be the best
performing metal with gains of 8 percent for the year thanks to Indonesia's ore export ban.
Copper prices ended 2014 with a loss of 14 percent, their biggest annual decline in three years,
on concerns that a supply surplus will hit the market next year just as Chinese economic growth
shifts down another gear. Losses in copper, the most widely followed metal, were matched by
tin and exceeded only by lead - a market that was in surplus in the year to September - while
nickel was the best-performing metal thanks to Indonesia's ore export ban. Year end
adjustments to market positions helped copper bounce off 4-1/2-year lows of $6,230 a tonne
earlier this week, but it resumed its decline on Wednesday, ending down 0.41 percent on the
day at $6,299 a tonne.
Weighing on the metal this year, the global copper market is expected to record a surplus of
about 390,000 tonnes in 2015, according to an industry group. That would follow five straight
years of deficit. Data on Wednesday showed activity in China's factory sector shrank for the
first time in seven months in December, highlighting the urgency behind a series of surprise
easing moves by Beijing in the past two months.

ENERGY
Oil prices fell on Wednesday to a 5-1/2-year low and ended with their second-biggest annual
decline ever, down by half since June under pressure from a global glut of crude.
Just before the close, Brent and U.S. oil futures bounced off session lows. But prices still
settled at their lowest since May 2009. Weekly U.S. data showed crude oil stockpiles fell more
than expected, but inventories at the oil hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, grew, keeping prices
depressed.

Oil prices have collapsed this year as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
opted to maintain the same level of output despite a global glut caused by expanding U.S. shale
output and diminished demand growth from China.
U.S. crude closed with its second-largest annual decline on record. The biggest came in 2008,
when prices collapsed in the wake of the financial crisis. The last round of OPEC output cuts
eventually brought them off lows near $30 a barrel. In contrast, OPEC at a Nov. 27 meeting this
year decided against cutting output. Despite its own forecasts of a growing surplus, the group
opted to defend its market share against shale oil and other rival supply sources. Turmoil in
Libya dented OPEC supply in December to a six-month low, a Reuters survey showed,
although forecasts still point to a glut.
U.S. natural gas prices ended the year down more than 30 percent for their worst performance
since 2011 after unseasonably warm weather raised questions on whether gas in storage was
excessive for the heating required in coming months. While weather forecasts from this week
onward have turned cold, price rebounds have been restrained by worries about whether gas in
storage was possibly higher than needed when cold weather peaks in January and February.
Latest weekly consumption numbers for gas from the U.S. Energy Information Administration
showed a draw of 26 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the Christmas week ended Dec. 26. A Reuters
poll of analysts had predicted a 38-bcf draw.

LME INVENTORIES
LME Inventories

Copper

Lead

Zinc

Aluminium

Nickel

Current Stock

177025

221975

691600

4210275

413148

Change

4775

-25

-3300

-6575

444

% Change

2.77%

-0.01%

-0.47%

-0.16%

0.11%

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

JEERA
Jeera traded with high volatility as the initial uptrend was followed by massive profit booking
by end of the day. Rains in parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat are creating a selling pressure as
rains at this stage are good for the sown crop. Closure on many International markets too has
adversely affected the export demand for the time being. Short term trend likely to show some
more dips but as skies clear and exports rise next week, sentiments likely to firm up again as a
fall in production this year keeps long term sentiments Bullish.
As per latest Govt reports, in Gujarat, normal area for Jeera crop is approximately 388,000
hectares. Till 17.11.2014, 60,900 ha have sown as compared to 74100 ha last year. The sowing
area during the According to Gujarat government data releases on 29th Dec 14, Jeera recorded
42% less sowing compared to last years 4.4 lakh hac. Sowing of the spice has almost over both
in Gujarat and Rajasthan reported lower acreage. The tight supply and good demand in spot
market coupled with the slight expected delay of new crop due to late sowing support the prices
during the period.
Export orders are diverted to India due to Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey. .Jeera
(cumin) exports have been 87,500 tonnes in the first six months (Apr-Sep) of 2014-15, a rise of
25% from the corresponding period of the previous (Source: Spices Board)
Current year likely to go down in Gujarat and Rajasthan growing regions due to lower price as
compared to Coriander. Area may shift to Coriander and Fenugreek seed. Total Jeera area is
likely to go down by 25 -30% during the current period as per trader estimates.
The latest report from Spice Board of India indicates a pickup in ex-ports during April-Sept
2014 period at 87500 tonnes (up from 70243 in April-Sept 2013) a rise of 25% in Quantity
and 2% in value (due to fall in rates during that time). The targeted Export for 2014-15 period
is 1,00,000 tonnes. With Indian produce being of superior quality, they fetch a premium w.r.t.
International market producing countries. Adverse reports from International producers would
be beneficial for the Indian markets in the long term. The exports have already shot up 40%
during the 1st half of the quarter. It is expected to remain high in coming months too which
could create a Bullish sentiment in the long term for the commodity. Finally a fall in area as
reported amid adverse weather conditions in growing areas could help keep market sentiments
firm in the medium term.

CHANA
Rains in many parts of North-West and Central India keeps market sentiments weak on
anticipations of that being good for the standing crop. Extending Duty-free import for Pulses
till March 31 created a further selling pressure for Pulses complex. Profit booking at the higher
levels amidst reports that Government may not be willing to impose 10% import duty on Pulses
also kept trend weak. Domestic demand however likely to pick up again at the lower levels as
overall market sentiments remain firm. Fall in Rabi sowing area for Rabi Pulses and lower
International production prospects could support prices in medium to long term however.
As per USDA, expected pulses production in USA is up by 8% to 2,232,630 metric tonne
during 2014 from last year. Reports from Canada indicate chickpea production there expected
to fall to 0.14 million MT in 2014-15down from 0.18 million MT in 2013-14due to lower
yield. Reports from Australia indicate a 22.5% fall in Pulses production and more than 30% fall
in Chick Peas production in 2014-15 vs that in 2013-14.
Latest report from AP Agri Dept indicate Rabi Pulses sowing down 6% from 6.43 lakh ha as on
24.12.2013 to 6.02 lakh ha as on 24.12.2014. Rajasthan Agri Dept for Rabi Pulses indicates
sowing indicates area at 15.36 lakh ha as on 19.12.2014, vs 15.28 lakh ha as on 19.12.2013. MP
Agri Dept indicates Rabi Pulses sowing at 35.81 lakh ha as on 19.12.2014 vs 42.44 lakh ha
previous yeardown by 15.6%. As per 1st Advanced crop estimates for 2014-15 by Govt of
India, India is likely to produce Kharif Food grains of 120.27 million tonnes, which is down by
8.97 million tonnes from the record 129.24 million tonnes achieved in Kharif 2013-14.

SOYABEAN
Rains in MP and Rajasthan keep sentiments down for the counter even as International markets
remained closed. Overall weakness in International markets due to increased global production
are likely to keep further pressure on the market sentiments.
USDA raised its forecast for global production, and expects inventories to reach an all-time
high. Bigger global grain and oilseed supplies have pushed world food costs to a 4-year low.
Soybean futures are heading for second straight annual losses, the longest slides since 1999.
The market analysts are of the opinion that even with record demand, the leftover supply of
soybeans before next years harvest will be record large. Brazils government forecast agency
Conab raised its outlook for the domestic crop to a record 9.58 crore tons. Thats bigger than

the USDA estimate for 9.4 crore tons.

Expectation of fall in soymeal export from April 14 to March 15. Soymeal export likely to fall
by 29 % to 20 lakh ton. Last year export 28 lakh ton Low export may pressurize the sentiments.
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 530.7 million tons, up 1.8 million
tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change on increases
for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed. Global soybean production is project-ed at a record
312.8 million tons with gains this month for Canada, Ukraine, and Paraguay. Global rapeseed
production is projected at a record 71.9 million tons, up 1.2 million mainly on increased
production for Canada, which is estimated at 15.6 million tons based on the latest survey results
from Statistics Canada.
Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.1 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month
and 23.5 million above year-earlier levels. Increased rapeseed stocks in Canada and higher
soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset with lower soybean stocks in the
United States.

REFI. SOYA
Moderate weakness was noted for Soy Oil as the higher levels recently touched from hike in
Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil and refined edible oil were not sustainable. Profit booking
was noted at the higher levels. Some more short term dips may be likely as International
markets cool down. Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil hiked from 2.5% to 7.5% and on Refined
Edible Oil hiked to 15% from 10%.
Fall in International markets had so far kept pressure on the market sentiments while domestic
markets traded firm. Rates however continue to find strong psychological Resistance at the 600
level.
Recently, the customs duty on crude oil has been increased to 7.5 per cent from 2.5 per cent
earlier, while the duty on refined edible oil has been raised to 15 per cent from 10 per cent, as
per the notification issued by the Central Board of Excise and Customs.
In month of Nov 14, there is an increase of 700% import of Crude soybean oil to 121,097
tonnes as compared to last year. It is mainly due to high prices of soybean and lesser realization
for oil and soybean meal in export market, resulted in lower crushing and availability of

domestic oil coupled with anticipated increase in import duty by the GOI. Total U.S. oilseed
production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.0 million tons, down slightly due to a small
reduction in cottonseed.
Soybean exports are increased 40 million bushels to 1,760 million reflecting the record
export pace in recent weeks and prospects for additional sales and shipments ahead of the
South American harvest.With crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are
projected at 410 million bushels, down 40 million from last month but still the highest since
2006/07.
India imported 11.62 million tonnes of edible oil during Sep-Oct 2013/14 compared to 10.68
million tonnes during the same period previous season, stated the Solvent Extrac-tors'
Association (SEA). Indias 2013/14 soyoil imports stood at 1.95 Mn T against 1.09 Mn T in
2012/13 season. Palm oil purchases were slightly lower at 7.29 Mn T against 8.29 Mn T last
season. Sunflower oil imports were recorded at 1.51 Mn T against 0.97 Mn T in 2012/13

RM SEED
Rains in growing states of Rajasthan, Gujarat and UP kept trend weak for RMSeed as that is
reportedly good for the sown crop. Short term some more dips may be there but overall
sentiments likely to remain firm however as good demand for Mustard Oil continued. Reports
of crop damage from parts of Rajasthan from recent rains also kept prices firm. Demand rose
further for Mustard Oil amidst falling stocks ahead of the Festival season. Cool weather in
growing states keep production prospects good though reports of damage to crop in some areas
in Rajasthan from the recent rains supported the market sentiments.
As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi season 2014-15 till 24
December was 26.40 lakh ha vs 29.73 lakh ha in 2013-14. The government has set a target of
29 lakh for this year. The fall in area was due to high temperature in Oct and lack of rains.
Farmer are reportedly shifting to Barley and Wheat. Crops also faced germination problem due
to the high Temperature.
Haryana area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 24 December was reportedly 5.25 lakh ha while it
was 5.47 lakh ha in 2013-14 during this time. The reason is again the high temperature during
Oct. MP area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 24 December was 6.46 lakh ha while it was 7.87 in
2013-14. Due to good rains in Oct and fields being unused, early sowing was possible there. UP
area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 24 December was 11.42 lakh ha while it was 10.37 lakh ha

in 2013-14 during this period. As fields this year were unused in kharif season, so farmers had
sown Mustard early in UP.
European Union rapeseed output rose to 22.5 million tons this year from 20.9 million tons,data
from the 28-nation bloc show. Gains for EU are partly offset by a reduction for Australia where
dry conditions in the southeast have reduced yield prospects. Global sunflowerseed production
is reduced 0.4 million tons to 39.8 million on lower fore-casts for Russia and Kazakhstan.

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