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Commodity Report by Ways2Capital 19 Jan 2015
Commodity Report by Ways2Capital 19 Jan 2015
DALLY
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-02-2014
666
664
662
660
658
656
654
652
650
SYBEANIDR
20-02-2014
3545
3525
3505
3485
3470
3450
3430
3410
3380
RMSEED
20-04-2014
3530
3510
3490
3470
3450
3420
3400
3380
3360
JEERAUNJHA
20-02-2014
16800
16700 16600
16500
CHANA
20-02-2014
3490
3470
3450
3430
3410
3380
3360
3340
3320
CASTORSEED
20-02-2014
4690
4670
4650
4620
4600
4580
4560
4540
4520
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
SYOREFIDR
20-02-2014
671
668
665
662
659
656
653
650
647
SYBEANIDR
20-02-2014
3585
3540
3500
3470
3440
3410
3370
3340
3310
RMSEED
20-04-2014
3575
3540
3510
3480
3440
3410
3380
3350
3310
JEERAUNJHA
20-02-2014
17300
17100 16900
16700
CHANA
20-02-2014
3555
3520
3485
3450
3410
3370
3330
3290
3260
CASTORSEED
20-02-2014
4750
4710
4670
4630
4590
4550
4510
4470
4430
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30-01-2015 118
117
116
115
114
113
112
111
110
COPPER
27-02-2015 367
365
363
360
357
354
351
348
345
CRUDE OIL
16-01-2015 3070
3050
3030
3010
2980
2960
2940
2920
2900
GOLD
05-02-2015 28200
28100
28000
27900
27600
27500
27400
24300
27200
LEAD
30-01-2015 119
118
117
116
115
114
113
112
111
199
197
195
193
191
189
187
185
NICKEL
30-01-2015 925
910
900
890
880
870
860
850
840
SILVER
05-03-2015 39800
39600
39400
39200
39000
38800
38600
38400
38200
ZINC
30-01-2015 134
133
132
131
130
129
128
127
126
EXPIRY
R4
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
S4
ALUMINIUM
30-01-2015 123
121
118
116
114
112
110
108
106
COPPER
27-02-2015 373
369
365
361
357
353
349
345
341
CRUDE OIL
16-01-2015 3180
3140
3100
3075
3030
3000
2970
2940
2900
GOLD
05-02-2015 28600
28400
28200
28000
27800
27600
27400
27200 27000
LEAD
30-01-2015 125
123
120
117
114
112
110
108
106
NATURAL GAS
27-01-2015 205
202
199
196
193
190
187
184
181
NICKEL
30-01-2015 960
930
900
870
840
810
780
750
720
SILVER
05-03-2015 40400
40200
40000
39800
39600
39400
39200
39000 38800
ZINC
30-01-2015 139
137
135
133
131
129
127
125
123
PRECIOUS METAL
Gold rose as much as 3 percent to a four-month high on Thursday after Switzerland's central
bank unexpectedly abandoned its three-year cap on the franc sent global shares and bond yields
into turmoil.
Swiss franc soared nearly 28 percent against the dollar, and the euro slid as much as 30 percent
below the 1.20 cap to a record low of 0.8500 francs per euro.
Gold has benefited from years of increased central banks' liquidity following the 2008 financial
crisis, but more monetary stimulus in the euro zone could result in a stronger dollar and, in turn,
lower gold prices. UBS lowered its gold price forecast for the year to $1,190 from $1,200,
saying it had underestimated the downside risks.
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a negative note yesterday declining by 0.2 percent as
retail sales in the U.S. slumped in December by the most in almost a year, pushing back the
time line for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
BASE METAL
Copper rose on Thursday on a mix of bargain-hunting, short-covering and hedging by
consumers, a day after its biggest slide in more than three years, but more losses were expected.
The price tumbled more than 8 percent at one point in Wednesday's session, to a 5-1/2 year low
of $5,353.25 a tonne, after a downward revision to global growth by the World Bank and falls
in oil prices amplified fears about the outlook for the economy and demand. Supporting the
market, investors bet on an increased chance of policy stimulus after disappointing China bank
loan data. But adding to bearish sentiment, Japan's core machinery orders rose less than
expected in November, as renewed global growth concerns appeared to temper corporate
spending plans and cast fresh doubts over how quickly the economy can recover from
recession. In other markets, a shock move by Switzerland to abandon its more than three-yearold cap on the franc sent the currency soaring and Europe's shares and bond yields tumbling.
ENERGY
Oil prices declined on Thursday as an erratic dollar and expectations of weakening demand
dashed hopes that a strong rally Wednesday might have signaled a bottom to the seven-month
price rout. Wednesday's surge was the biggest in 2-1/2 years and continued early Thursday,
with both benchmarks breaking above $50 before giving back gains.
Trading was choppy as U.S. crude briefly surged ahead of Brent early in the day. The move
came on the last day of trading for the Brent contract.
The Swiss National Bank abandoned its cap against the euro, pushing the Swiss currency up
sharply and depressing the euro. But the dollar's movements were erratic over the course of the
day, and expectations of lessening demand across the globe depressed the markets. Jobless
claims in the U.S. are up, while factory activity is down, according to reports from the Labor
Department and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank. Christina Lagarde, managing director of
the International Monetary Fund, said investment and consumption were weak in many
economies, including China, the world's second-biggest consumer.
U.S. natural gas futures lost 2.3 percent in volatile trade on Thursday on forecasts calling for
slightly less cold over the next two weeks despite a bigger-than-expected storage draw. The
latest weather models for the lower 48 U.S. states called for slightly less frigid, but still belownormal temperatures over the next two weeks, especially at the end of the month, with an
expected 492 heating degree days (HDD). The U.S. Energy Information Administration said
utilities pulled 236 billion cubic feet of gas from storage during the cold weather last week,
topping analysts estimates in a Reuters poll for a draw of 224 bcf. That was the biggest weekly
decrease since the polar vortex blanketed much of the nation last February and easily topped
the 131-bcf draw in the previous week and the five-year average draw of 190 bcf. It was well
short of the record 268-bcf decrease of a year earlier
LME INVENTORIES
LME Inventories
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Aluminium
Nickel
Current Stock
198725
215825
661375
4131350
418332
Change
4725
-3350
-9225
12
% Change
2.44%
0.00%
-0.50%
-0.22%
0.00%
JEERA
Firm trend persisted for Jeera as markets traded with high volatility. Export demand started
rising and an overall fall in crop production reports kept supporting the prices.
Cool weather in growing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan amid reports of rains in some areas
(reportedly good for the standing crop productivity) did pressurize prices to some extent.
The recent rains in the growing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan had created possibilities of
improved crop productivity. However with International markets opening after the recent
holidays, export demand has started rising.
As per latest Govt reports, in Gujarat, normal area is approximately 388,000 hectares. Till
5.1.2015, only 2.64 lakh ha have sown as compared to 4.54 lakh ha last year. Sowing area
during current year likely to go down in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to lower price as compared
to Coriander. Area may shift to Coriander and Fenugreek seed. Cumin output is expected to fall
steeply in Gujarat this year. Output was 3.46 lakh tons in the state last year but may fall this
year as acreage is slashed by 42%. However, yield is expected to improve after the rainfall that
the state received recently. Still, there is less probability of the output to cross 2 lakh tons.
The exports have already shot up 40% during the 1st half of the quarter. It is expected to remain
high in coming months too which could create a Bullish sentiment in the long term for the
commodity. Finally a fall in area as reported amidst adverse weather conditions in growing
areas could help keep market sentiments firm in the medium term.
CHANA
NCDEX Chana Feb. futures closed down 0.83 % on third consecutive day mainly due weak
spot demand and expectation of new crop arrivals in less than a months time. Overall
sentiments looks mixed for Chana amid expected lower output and duty free export allowed till
Mar 2015.
As per the Govt data, Chana has been sown over 81.01 lakh hectares which are less 15.4 % on
Jan 9, 2015 as compared to last year. Weather so far has been conducive for the growth of
Chana crop in the growing states. Considering favorable weather conditions in the coming days
and thereby a normal yield, we expect Chana production to hover around 84-86 lakh tonnes in
2014-15
REFI. SOYA
Ref Soy Oil found good support at these levels as International markets rates too traded slight
firm. The uptrend however was limited with bearish WASDE reports for Oil complex. Good
demand persisted in domestic markets. Sources indicate some more recovery possible in the
near term as demand picks up further.
The recent hike in Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil and refined edible oil would have a
medium term Bullish impact on pricesas per sources. Import Duty on Crude Edible Oil hiked
from 2.5% to 7.5% and on Refined Edible Oil hiked to 15% from 10%. Fall in International
markets had so far kept pressure on the market sentiments while domestic markets traded firm.
Rates however continue to find strong psychological Resistance at the 600 level.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.0 million tons, down slightly due
to a small reduction in cottonseed.
Soybean exports are increased 40 million bushels to 1,760 million reflecting the record export
pace in recent weeks and prospects for additional sales and shipments ahead of the South
American harvest.
India imported 11.62 million tonnes of edible oil during Sep-Oct 2013/14 compared to 10.68
million tonnes during the same period previous season, stated the Solvent Extrac-tors'
Association (SEA).
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