Monthly news summary

(Jan. 2015)
This monthly news summary highlights the situation in the eastern Ukraine and on the Crimean
peninsula, focuses on Ukraines economy and its challenges, and analyses Ukrainian and
international statements delivered throughout the month as well as the international support provided
to Ukraine.
Throughout January, the situation in the ATO area kept on methodically escalating. Beginning
with gradual ceasefire violations by increasing the amount and shelling intensity, the militants, starting
from Jan. 12, took a course on escalation of the situation in the ATO area. In a short period of time, the
shelling intensity reached 600 attacks per week, and then climbed up to 800. The militants managed to
seize more Ukrainian territory as a result of an offensive on Donetsk airport, Vuhlehirsk, Debaltseve
and other ATO areas that resulted in significant civilian and military casualties.
Russian Federation bears full responsibility for the escalation of the conflict in Donbas.
Kremlin continued to demonstrate its support of LPR and DPR by deploying Russian military
units in eastern Ukraine, dispatching humanitarian and military convoys and providing technical,
financial and political support to the terrorists. It was reported that for the first time the number of
terrorist groups and Russian military units has greatly exceeded the number of Ukrainian troops.
According to NDSC, 29th and 31st checkpoints have been attacked by Russian regular military
units on Jan. 20. As the conflict kept on drastically escalating, Ukraine urged the international
community to provide an adequate response to a full-scale fighting between Ukrainian Army forces
and Russian regular units that is going on in Donbas.
Due to the possible beginning of a full-scale war against Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko stated that
Ukrainian side has to start an offensive on the terrorist positions. Ukraine is ready to sign a ceasefire
agreement if only there is a guarantee that Minsk Protocol will be fulfilled by the opposite side, the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine said in a public statement.
Terrible acts of terrorism carried out by Russian terrorist groups against the civilian population
(a Grad rocket that hit the bus near Volnovakha, terrorist attacks in Kharkiv, Odesa, Zaporizhia, the
bloody offensive on Mariupol) became one of the bloodiest attacks of the conflict.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine pointed out that Russian authorities, that finance
insurgents, are fully responsible for the deaths of civilians. P. Klimkin informed that Ukraine plans to
sue Russia in international courts for its violation of the Terrorist Financing Convention. The actions
of DPR and LPR were fully supported by Russia but strongly condemned by the international
community (both European and world leaders and international organizations UN, EU, NATO,
OSCE and Council of Europe).

Ukraine called on the democratic world to unite its efforts in the fight against terrorism and to
include DPR and LPR to the list of terrorist organizations. Because the full-scale hostilities began in

Donbas, Ukraine recognized Russia as an aggressor state and called on its international partners to
hold Kremlin accountable for the crimes against humanity committed since the beginning of its
aggression against Ukraine. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has adopted a
resolution that strongly condemned Russian aggression and its expansionist policy that not only poses
a threat to the unity and independence of Ukraine, but also creates a potential threat to the EU. EP
representatives condemned the undeclared and hybrid war against Ukraine that includes information
war with the elements of a cyber-war, use of regular and irregular military forces, propaganda,
energetic blackmail, and economic pressure, diplomatic and political destabilization. The MEP urged
Moscow to stop escalating the situation, halt immediately the flow of weapons, rebels and regular
troops deployed to support separatist armed groups, and also use their influence on the rebels to stop
the blooshed.
Another crucial event for Ukraine was a PACE resolution on the humanitarian situation in
Ukraine that was approved by a majority of votes. In a separate paragraph, the resolution called on
Russia to release N. Savchenko and all other "prisoners of war". A decision to suspend the voting
rights of Russian delegation was another Councils important decision. In response, Russian delegation
said it would boycott PACE sessions until the end of 2015.
The militants (O. Zaharchenkos statements about an offensive to be launched soon on
Ukraines territory, Minsk peace talks getting called off because of rebels unwillingness to build a
constructive dialogue, militants new demands) and Russia considerably contributed to the escalation
of the conflict in Donbas. Both sides demonstrated no willingness to move towards the peaceful
settlement of the situation (neither in Normandy format, nor in the framework of the Trilateral
Contact Group in Minsk). As the situation in Ukraine escalates, there seems to be no consensus in
Europe and the US regarding softening or strengthening sanctions against Russia. Another
complicated question on the agenda is whether to arm Ukraine or not. Zbigniew Brzezinski stated
that Russia would have put an end to independent Ukraine and go on threatening other European
countries sovereignty, especially the Baltic ones, if the US and the EU sanctions had not been
introduced. European leaders have opposed the idea of supplying weaponry to Ukraine and stressed
the importance of peaceful resolution to the conflict in Donbas
The world must prepare for a potential deterioration of the situation in Donbas and the new
Cold War. The Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland
believes that all NATO member states should get ready for further escalation if they fail to halt
Russian aggression now.
The following tendencies are observed in the occupied Crimea: 1) a complicated economic
situation along with peninsulas international economic and transport isolation (reduced industry
production by 80%, food crisis and lack of water supplies, salary and pension arrears, inflation, higher
tariffs, already common Kerch ferry service disruption, cut off from international information and

payment systems; 2) a deteriorating human rights situation ( persecution and arrests of Mejlis members
and certain Crimean Tatar activists, restricted language rights and ban on pro-Ukraine public
gatherings, forced conscription, private property seizure, Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar

media

suppression, Ukrainian churches persecution, Ukrainian schools shut down); 3) further integration into
Russian military defense complex the Crimean peninsula is viewed as Russian military outpost
(deployment of aircraft and missiles capable of being nuclear, introduction of fines for failure to
register at military commissariat, naval aviation exercises, attack aircraft deployment - Mi-24 and IL76, a program is also being designed to upgrade the shipyards, taking into account the potential
orders).
The economic situation under the conditions of Russian military and economic aggression is
characterized by: 1) a complicated macroeconomic and financial situation (EBRD downgraded its
forecast for Ukraines GDP decline to 5%, reduced gold reserves to $6,4 billion, banking sector and
financial crisis, hryvnia devaluation); 2) a growing financial dependence on foreign lenders (the
country may face a threat of default if $15 billion financial help is not provided; 3) contradictive
tendencies in the unstable energy sector: temporally increased dependence on Russia (coal, electricity)
along with the countrys growing energy independence (diversification of the provision sources and
types of energy supplies; 4) increased military spending (5% of GDP).
Ukraine urges Europe and the world to take immediate action and to impose more pressure on
Russia, in particular: 1) to introduce additional sector and financial sanctions; 2) to provide political,
financial, humanitarian and military support to Ukraine.
Ukraines immense international support in different spheres maintains a positive tendency.
While Poland, USA and Canada are providing Ukraine with all kinds of political, military, financial
and humanitarian help, Germany, UK, Lithuania, Slovakia, Czech Republic, France, Japan, Australia,
Estonia, Belgium, China, Kazakhstan, Italy, Austria, Finland, Belarus, Israel and Turkey help Kyiv to
stabilize its different sectors of industry and economy.
On the level of international organizations, Ukraine values EUs all possible kinds of political,
financial and humanitarian help as well as the support provided by OSCE, IMF, Council of Europe,
NATO, The Red Cross, UN agencies and The European Investment Bank to rebuild the countrys
economy and fuel the process of reforms implementation. Although the amount of help demonstrated a
decreasing tendency, the international community has made some important legislative steps during
the month (consultations, making important decisions, adopting resolutions).
Ukraine is truly grateful for the invaluable international support provided by all the countries
and international organizations in such a challenging time of Russian aggression. Ukrainians still hope
that, together with the international community, Ukraine will manage to halt Russian aggression and
lay a democratic foundation for the countrys economic prosperity.

The analytical data used for the monthly news summary includes the following materials of the
Information Analysis Center of the Faculty of International Relations of Ivan Franko National
University of Lviv: Weekly news digest Jan. 2-6, Jan.7-13, Jan. 14-20, Jan. 21-27 and Jan. 28
Feb. 3.