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POSTNOTE
Number 399 January 2012
Background
Concerns over energy security are caused by either
physical supply disruptions or spikes in energy prices. Both
have occurred in the past, for example, the oil shocks of the
1970s, but their prevalence around the world over the last
decade has caused a resurgence of concern. In the UK, two
factors in particular drive current interest:
increasing dependence on imported fossil fuels. As
shown by Figure 1, the UK has returned to levels of
import dependence not seen since the 1970s. As
domestic oil and gas production is declining, this
dependence is likely to increase.
the shift to a low carbon energy system. The Climate
Change Act (2008) and EU Renewable Energy Directive
(2009) require the UK to substantially reduce greenhouse
gas emissions and increase renewable energy
production. These have implications for energy security.
For example, as discussed later, power stations that
close over the next decade will be replaced by variable or
inflexible low carbon generation, bringing challenges for
managing the electricity system.
Energy security is a broad concept with no agreed
1
definition. This creates difficulties for assessing and
monitoring policy. For instance, the Department of Energy
and Climate Change (DECC) outlines four main policy
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: DECC, Energy in Brief 2011. The graph shows net import
dependence across all fossil fuels; dependence varies for each fuel. In
2010, the UK imported 52% of the coal used. Gas, crude oil and refined
oil are exported as well as imported. On balance, the UK was a net
importer of 38% for gas and 14% for oil in 2010.
objectives for energy security:1
maximise economic recovery of domestic fuel reserves
reduce demand for energy
ensure a well-designed market framework with a clear
allocation of responsibilities, such that the necessary
fuels and infrastructure are cost-effectively delivered
influence other countries, for example by diversifying
imports and supporting long term contracts.
The Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 7 Millbank, London SW1P 3JA T 020 7219 2840 E post@parliament.uk www.parliament.uk/post
Page 2
Infrastructure
Redundancy in energy infrastructure makes a system less
vulnerable to breakdowns and disruptions of any one part.
Spare capacity comes in various forms, including fuel and
electricity import infrastructure, electricity generation
capacity, transmission network capacity and fuel or
electricity storage facilities. The following two sub-sections
outline two prominent infrastructure indicators: the electricity
capacity margin and fuel storage. Delivery of energy
infrastructure depends upon a skilled engineering workforce,
but various observers, including the House of Lords Science
and Technology Committee,8 have expressed concern over
future skills gaps in this area. Skills-related indicators are
thus also relevant to energy security.
Page 3
90%
80%
NATURAL GAS
THERMAL
RENEWABLES
AND WASTE
70%
60%
PETROLEUM
50%
Demand
40%
30%
20%
COAL
10%
0%
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
700
TERAWATT HOURS
600
LNG - QATAR
500
LNG - OTHER
400
300
NORWAY
200
100
BELGIUM
NETHERLANDS
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Page 4
POST is an office of both Houses of Parliament, charged with providing independent and balanced analysis of policy issues that have a basis in science and technology.
POST is grateful to all contributors and reviewers. For further information on this subject please contact the author, Dr Stephen Allen, on allens@parliament.uk.
Parliamentary Copyright 2012. Front page image by Rick Martin, reproduced under Creative Commons BY-SA 3.0 license.