PROJECT ON

A STUDY ON ARBITRAGE
SUBMITTED BY
SATYAPRAKASH HARYANI
Seat no. 102
M.Com (Semester-II)
*2012-2013*
UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF
Dr NEHA GOEL
SUBMITTED TO
UNIVERSITY OF MUMBAI
NIRMALA MEMORIAL FOUNDATION COLLEGE OF
COMMERCE AND SCIENCE
90 FEET ROAD, ASHA NAGAR, THAKUR COMPLEX,KANDIVALI (E),
MUMBAI-400 101.

DECLARATION

I, Mr.SATYAPRAKASH HARYANI of M.Com (Master of Commerce,

Semester II) hereby declare that I have completed the project on
ARBITRAGE in the academic year 2012-2013.

The information submitted is true and original to best of my knowledge.

________________

________________

Date of Submission.

Signature of Student,
(SATYAPRAKASH HARYANI)

CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the project titled as ARBITRAGE has been

completed by

Mr. SATYAPRAKASH HARYANI of M.Com.

(Semester-II)examination in academic year 2012-2013.

The information submitted is true and original to the best of knowledge.

______________

______________

(Dr. T. P. Madhu Nair)

(Prof. Dr. Neha Goel)

Principal

Programme Coordinator

________________

________________

(Prof. Dr. Neha Goel)

External Examiner

Project Guide

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to extend my gratitude to Prof. Dr. Neha Goel for providing
guidance and support during the course of project. She has been a great
help through the making of the project. I would like to thank the
University of Mumbai for giving me the opportunity to work on such a
relevant topic. I would also like to thank the college faculty and the
librarian and the Principal Dr.T.P.Madhu Nair for their help and other
who are indirectly responsible for the completion of this project. In
addition I would like to take this opportunity to thank our M.Com
Coordinator Prof. Dr. Neha Goel for being there always to guide me and
for extending her full support.

Date-

Mumbai

_______________
Signature of Student
(SATYAPRAKASH HARYANI)
4

In economics and finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price

difference between two or more markets: striking a combination of matching deals
that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between
the market prices. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that
involves no negativecash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive
cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free
profit at zero cost.
In principle and in academic use, an arbitrage is risk-free; in common use, as
in statistical arbitrage, it may refer to expected profit, though losses may occur, and
in practice, there are always risks in arbitrage, some minor (such as fluctuation of
prices decreasing profit margins), some major (such as devaluation of a currency or
derivative). In academic use, an arbitrage involves taking advantage of differences
in price of a single asset or identical cash-flows; in common use, it is also used to
refer to differences between similar assets (relative value or convergence trades),
as in merger arbitrage.
People who engage in arbitrage are called arbitrageurs (IPA /rbtrr/)
such as a bank or brokerage firm. The term is mainly applied to trading in financial
instruments, such as bonds, stocks, derivatives, commodities and currencies.

Arbitrage-free
If the market prices do not allow for profitable arbitrage, the prices are said to
constitute an arbitrage equilibrium or arbitrage-free market. An arbitrage
equilibrium is a precondition for a general economic equilibrium. The assumption
that there is no arbitrage is used in quantitative finance to calculate a unique risk
neutral price for derivatives.
[edit]Conditions for arbitrage
Arbitrage is possible when one of three conditions is met:
1. The same asset does not trade at the same price on all markets ("the law of
one price").
2. Two assets with identical cash flows do not trade at the same price.

3. An asset with a known price in the future does not today trade at its future
price discounted at the risk-free interest rate (or, the asset does not have
negligible costs of storage; as such, for example, this condition holds for
grain but not for securities).
Arbitrage is not simply the act of buying a product in one market and selling it in
another for a higher price at some later time. The transactions must
occur simultaneously to avoid exposure to market risk, or the risk that prices may
change on one market before both transactions are complete. In practical terms,
this is generally possible only with securities and financial products that can be
traded electronically, and even then, when each leg of the trade is executed the
prices in the market may have moved. Missing one of the legs of the trade (and
subsequently having to trade it soon after at a lower price) is called 'execution risk'
or more specifically 'leg risk'.[note 1]
In the simplest example, any good sold in one market should sell for the same price
in another. Traders may, for example, find that the price of wheat is lower in
agricultural regions than in cities, purchase the good, and transport it to another
region to sell at a higher price. This type of price arbitrage is the most common, but
this simple example ignores the cost of transport, storage, risk, and other factors.
"True" arbitrage requires that there be no market risk involved. Where securities
are traded on more than one exchange, arbitrage occurs by simultaneously buying
in one and selling on the other.
See rational pricing, particularly arbitrage mechanics, for further discussion.
Mathematically it is defined as follows:
and
where

and

denotes the portfolio value at time t.

Examples

Suppose that the exchange rates (after taking out the fees for making the
exchange) in London are 5 = $10 = 1000 and the exchange rates in Tokyo are
1000 = $12 = 6. Converting 1000 to $12 in Tokyo and converting that $12
into 1200 in London, for a profit of 200, would be arbitrage. In reality, this
"triangle arbitrage" is so simple that it almost never occurs. But more
complicated foreign exchange arbitrages, such as the spot-forward arbitrage
(see interest rate parity) are much more common.

One example of arbitrage involves the New York Stock Exchange and the
Security Futures Exchange OneChicago (OCX). When the price of a stock on
6

the NYSE and its corresponding futures contract on OCX are out of sync, one
can buy the less expensive one and sell it to the more expensive market.
Because the differences between the prices are likely to be small (and not to last
very long), this can be done profitably only with computers examining a large
number of prices and automatically exercising a trade when the prices are far
enough out of balance. The activity of other arbitrageurs can make this risky.
Those with the fastest computers and the most expertise take advantage of
series of small differences that would not be profitable if taken individually.

Economists use the term "global labor arbitrage" to refer to the tendency of
manufacturing jobs to flow towards whichever country has the lowest wages
per unit output at present and has reached the minimum requisite level of
political and economic development to support industrialization. At present,
many such jobs appear to be flowing towards China, though some that require
command of English are going to India and the Philippines. In popular terms,
this is referred to as offshoring. (Note that "offshoring" is not synonymous with
"outsourcing", which means "to subcontract from an outside supplier or
source", such as when a business outsources its bookkeeping to an accounting
firm. Unlike offshoring, outsourcing always involves subcontracting jobs to a
different company, and that company can be in the same country as the
outsourcing company.)

Sports arbitrage numerous internet bookmakers offer odds on the outcome

of the same event. Any given bookmaker will weight their odds so that no
one customer can cover all outcomes at a profit against their books. However,
in order to remain competitive they must keep margins usually quite low.
Different bookmakers may offer different odds on the same outcome of a given
event; by taking the best odds offered by each bookmaker, a customer can
under some circumstances cover all possible outcomes of the event and lock a
small risk-free profit, known as a Dutch book. This profit will typically be
between 1% and 5% but can be much higher. One problem with sports arbitrage
is that bookmakers sometimes make mistakes and this can lead to an invocation
of the 'palpable error' rule, which most bookmakers invoke when they have
made a mistake by offering or posting incorrect odds. As bookmakers become
more proficient, the odds of making an 'arb' usually last for less than an hour
and typically only a few minutes. Furthermore, huge bets on one side of the
market also alert the bookies to correct the market.

Exchange-traded fund arbitrage Exchange Traded Funds allow authorized

participants to exchange back and forth between shares in underlying securities
held by the fund and shares in the fund itself, rather than allowing the buying
and selling of shares in the ETF directly with the fund sponsor. ETFs trade in
the open market, with prices set by market demand. An ETF may trade at a
premium or discount to the value of the underlying assets. When a significant
enough premium appears, an arbitrageur will buy the underlying securities,
convert them to shares in the ETF, and sell them in the open market. When a
discount appears, an arbitrageur will do the reverse. In this way, the arbitrageur
makes a low-risk profit, while keeping ETF prices in line with their underlying
value.

Some types of hedge funds make use of a modified form of arbitrage to

profit. Rather than exploiting price differences between identical assets, they
will purchase and sellsecurities, assets and derivatives with similar
characteristics, and hedge any significant differences between the two assets.
Any difference between the hedged positions represents any remaining risk
(such as basis risk) plus profit; the belief is that there remains some difference
which, even after hedging most risk, represents pure profit. For example, a fund
may see that there is a substantial difference between U.S. dollar debt and local
currency debt of a foreign country, and enter into a series of matching trades
(including currency swaps) to arbitrage the difference, while simultaneously
entering into credit default swaps to protect against country risk and other types
of specific risk.

Google uses the term arbitrage to label certain advertisers who litter their
website with ads. Google doesn't allow them to advertise with them because the
advertiser would be making more to host these ads on their site than Google
would be making from the single click.

Price convergence
Arbitrage has the effect of causing prices in different markets to converge. As a
result of arbitrage, the currency exchange rates, the price of commodities, and the
price of securities in different markets tend to converge. The speed at which they
do so is a measure of market efficiency. Arbitrage tends to reduce price
discrimination by encouraging people to buy an item where the price is low and
resell it where the price is high (as long as the buyers are not prohibited from
reselling and the transaction costs of buying, holding and reselling are small
relative to the difference in prices in the different markets).
Arbitrage moves different currencies toward purchasing power parity. As an
example, assume that a car purchased in the United States is cheaper than the same
car in Canada. Canadians would buy their cars across the border to exploit the
arbitrage condition. At the same time, Americans would buy US cars, transport
them across the border, then sell them in Canada. Canadians would have to buy
American dollars to buy the cars and Americans would have to sell the Canadian
dollars they received in exchange. Both actions would increase demand for US
dollars and supply of Canadian dollars. As a result, there would be an appreciation
of the US currency. This would make US cars more expensive and Canadian cars
less so until their prices were similar. On a larger scale, international arbitrage
opportunities in commodities, goods, securities and currencies tend to
changeexchange rates until the purchasing power is equal.
In reality, most assets exhibit some difference between countries.
These, transaction costs, taxes, and other costs provide an impediment to this kind
of arbitrage. Similarly, arbitrage affects the difference in interest rates paid on

government bonds issued by the various countries, given the expected

depreciations in the currencies relative to each other (see interest rate parity).
[edit]Risks
Arbitrage transactions in modern securities markets involve fairly low day-to-day
risks, but can face extremely high risk in rare situations, particularly financial
crises, and can lead to bankruptcy. Formally, arbitrage transactions have negative
skew prices can get a small amount closer (but often no closer than 0), while they
can get very far apart. The day-to-day risks are generally small because the
transactions involve small differences in price, so an execution failure will
generally cause a small loss (unless the trade is very big or the price moves
rapidly). The rare case risks are extremely high because these small price
differences are converted to large profits via leverage (borrowed money), and in
the rare event of a large price move, this may yield a large loss.
The main day-to-day risk is that part of the transaction fails execution risk. The
main rare risks are counterparty risk and liquidity risk that a counterparty to a
large transaction or many transactions fails to pay, or that one is required to
post margin and does not have the money to do so.
In the academic literature, the idea that seemingly very low risk arbitrage trades
might not be fully exploited because of these risk factors and other considerations
is often referred to as limits to arbitrage.[1][2][3]
[edit]Execution risk
Generally it is impossible to close two or three transactions at the same instant;
therefore, there is the possibility that when one part of the deal is closed, a quick
shift in prices makes it impossible to close the other at a profitable price. However,
this is not necessarily the case. Many exchanges and inter-dealer brokers allow
multi legged trades (e.g. basis block trades on LIFFE).
Competition in the marketplace can also create risks during arbitrage transactions.
As an example, if one was trying to profit from a price discrepancy between IBM
on the NYSE and IBM on the London Stock Exchange, they may purchase a large
number of shares on the NYSE and find that they cannot simultaneously sell on the
LSE. This leaves the arbitrageur in an unhedged risk position.
In the 1980s, risk arbitrage was common. In this form of speculation, one trades a
security that is clearly undervalued or overvalued, when it is seen that the wrong
valuation is about to be corrected by events. The standard example is the stock of a
company, undervalued in the stock market, which is about to be the object of a
takeover bid; the price of the takeover will more truly reflect the value of the
company, giving a large profit to those who bought at the current priceif the
10

merger goes through as predicted. Traditionally, arbitrage transactions in the

securities markets involve high speed, high volume and low risk. At some moment
a price difference exists, and the problem is to execute two or three balancing
transactions while the difference persists (that is, before the other arbitrageurs act).
When the transaction involves a delay of weeks or months, as above, it may entail
considerable risk if borrowed money is used to magnify the reward through
leverage. One way of reducing the risk is through the illegal use of inside
information, and in fact risk arbitrage with regard to leveraged buyouts was
associated with some of the famous financial scandals of the 1980s such as those
involving Michael Milken and Ivan Boesky.
[edit]Mismatch
For more details on this topic, see Convergence trade.
Another risk occurs if the items being bought and sold are not identical and the
arbitrage is conducted under the assumption that the prices of the items are
correlated or predictable; this is more narrowly referred to as a convergence trade.
In the extreme case this is merger arbitrage, described below. In comparison to the
classical quick arbitrage transaction, such an operation can produce disastrous
losses.
[edit]Counterparty risk
As arbitrages generally involve future movements of cash, they are subject
to counterparty risk: if a counterparty fails to fulfill their side of a transaction. This
is a serious problem if one has either a single trade or many related trades with a
single counterparty, whose failure thus poses a threat, or in the event of a financial
crisis when many counterparties fail. This hazard is serious because of the large
quantities one must trade in order to make a profit on small price differences.
For example, if one purchases many risky bonds, then hedges them with CDSes,
profiting from the difference between the bond spread and the CDS premium, in a
financial crisis the bonds may default and the CDS writer/seller may itself fail, due
to the stress of the crisis, causing the arbitrageur to face steep losses.

Liquidity risk
Markets can remain irrational far
longer than you or I can remain

11

solvent.
John Maynard Keynes
Arbitrage trades are necessarily synthetic, leveraged trades, as they involve a short
position. If the assets used are not identical (so a price divergence makes the trade
temporarily lose money), or the margin treatment is not identical, and the trader is
accordingly required to post margin (faces a margin call), the trader may run out of
capital (if they run out of cash and cannot borrow more) and go bankrupt even
though the trades may be expected to ultimately make money. In effect, arbitrage
traders synthesize a put option on their ability to finance themselves.[4]
Prices may diverge during a financial crisis, often termed a "flight to quality";
these are precisely the times when it is hardest for leveraged investors to raise
capital (due to overall capital constraints), and thus they will lack capital precisely
when they need it most.[4]
[edit]Types of arbitrage
[edit]Merger arbitrage
Also called risk arbitrage, merger arbitrage generally consists of buying the stock
of a company that is the target of a takeover while shorting the stock of the
acquiring company.
Usually the market price of the target company is less than the price offered by the
acquiring company. The spread between these two prices depends mainly on the
probability and the timing of the takeover being completed as well as the
prevailing level of interest rates.
The bet in a merger arbitrage is that such a spread will eventually be zero, if and
when the takeover is completed. The risk is that the deal "breaks" and the spread
massively widens.
[edit]Municipal bond arbitrage
Also called municipal bond relative value arbitrage, municipal arbitrage, or
just muni arb, this hedge fund strategy involves one of two approaches.
Generally, managers seek relative value opportunities by being both long and short
municipal bonds with a duration-neutral book. The relative value trades may be
between different issuers, different bonds issued by the same entity, or capital
structure trades referencing the same asset (in the case of revenue bonds).
Managers aim to capture the inefficiencies arising from the heavy participation of
non-economic investors (i.e., high income "buy and hold" investors seeking tax12

exempt income) as well as the "crossover buying" arising from corporations' or

individuals' changing income tax situations (i.e., insurers switching their munis for
corporates after a large loss as they can capture a higher after-tax yield by
offsetting the taxable corporate income with underwriting losses). There are
additional inefficiencies arising from the highly fragmented nature of the municipal
bond market which has two million outstanding issues and 50,000 issuers in
contrast to the Treasury market which has 400 issues and a single issuer.
Second, managers construct leveraged portfolios of AAA- or AA-rated tax-exempt
municipal bonds with the duration risk hedged by shorting the appropriate ratio of
taxable corporate bonds. These corporate equivalents are typically interest rate
swaps referencing Libor or SIFMA[1] [2]. The arbitrage manifests itself in the
form of a relatively cheap longer maturity municipal bond, which is a municipal
bond that yields significantly more than 65% of a corresponding taxable corporate
bond. The steeper slope of the municipalyield curve allows participants to collect
more after-tax income from the municipal bond portfolio than is spent on the
interest rate swap; the carry is greater than the hedge expense. Positive, tax-free
carry from muni arb can reach into the double digits. The bet in this municipal
bond arbitrage is that, over a longer period of time, two similar instruments
municipal bonds and interest rate swapswill correlate with each other; they are
both very high quality credits, have the same maturity and are denominated in U.S.
dollars. Credit risk and duration risk are largely eliminated in this strategy.
However, basis risk arises from use of an imperfect hedge, which results in
significant, but range-bound principal volatility. The end goal is to limit this
principal volatility, eliminating its relevance over time as the high, consistent, taxfree cash flow accumulates. Since the inefficiency is related to government tax
policy, and hence is structural in nature, it has not been arbitraged away.
Note, however, that many municipal bonds are callable, and that this imposes
substantial additional risks to the strategy.

Convertible bond arbitrage

13

A convertible bond is a bond that an investor can return to the issuing company in
exchange for a predetermined number of shares in the company.
A convertible bond can be thought of as a corporate bond with a stock call
option attached to it.
The price of a convertible bond is sensitive to three major factors:

interest rate. When rates move higher, the bond part of a convertible bond
tends to move lower, but the call option part of a convertible bond moves
higher (and the aggregate tends to move lower).

stock price. When the price of the stock the bond is convertible into moves
higher, the price of the bond tends to rise.

credit spread. If the creditworthiness of the issuer deteriorates

(e.g. rating downgrade) and its credit spread widens, the bond price tends to
move lower, but, in many cases, the call option part of the convertible bond
moves higher (since credit spread correlates with volatility).
Given the complexity of the calculations involved and the convoluted structure that
a convertible bond can have, an arbitrageur often relies on sophisticated
quantitative models in order to identify bonds that are trading cheap versus their
theoretical value.
Convertible arbitrage consists of buying a convertible bond and hedging two of the
three factors in order to gain exposure to the third factor at a very attractive price.
For instance an arbitrageur would first buy a convertible bond, then sell fixed
income securities or interest rate futures (to hedge the interest rate exposure) and
buy some credit protection (to hedge the risk of credit deterioration). Eventually
what he'd be left with is something similar to a call option on the underlying stock,
acquired at a very low price. He could then make money either selling some of the
more expensive options that are openly traded in the market or delta hedging his
exposure to the underlying shares.
[edit]Depository receipts
A depositary receipt is a security that is offered as a "tracking stock" on another
foreign market. For instance a Chinese company wishing to raise more money may
issue a depository receipt on the New York Stock Exchange, as the amount of
capital on the local exchanges is limited. These securities, known as ADRs
(American Depositary Receipt) or GDRs (Global Depositary Receipt) depending
on where they are issued, are typically considered "foreign" and therefore trade at a
14

lower value when first released. Many ADR's are exchangeable into the original
security (known as fungibility) and actually have the same value. In this case there
is a spread between the perceived value and real value, which can be extracted.
Other ADR's that are not exchangeable often have much larger spreads. Since the
ADR is trading at a value lower than what it is worth, one can purchase the ADR
and expect to make money as its value converges on the original. However there is
a chance that the original stock will fall in value too, so by shorting it one can
hedge that risk.

[edit]Dual-listed companies
A dual-listed company (DLC) structure involves two companies incorporated in
different countries contractually agreeing to operate their businesses as if they were
a single enterprise, while retaining their separate legal identity and existing stock
exchange listings. In integrated and efficient financial markets, stock prices of the
twin pair should move in lockstep. In practice, DLC share prices exhibit large
deviations from theoretical parity. Arbitrage positions in DLCs can be set up by
obtaining a long position in the relatively underpriced part of the DLC and a short
position in the relatively overpriced part. Such arbitrage strategies start paying off
as soon as the relative prices of the two DLC stocks converge toward theoretical
parity. However, since there is no identifiable date at which DLC prices will
converge, arbitrage positions sometimes have to be kept open for considerable
periods of time. In the meantime, the price gap might widen. In these situations,
arbitrageurs may receive margin calls, after which they would most likely be
forced to liquidate part of the position at a highly unfavorable moment and suffer a
loss. Arbitrage in DLCs may be profitable, but is also very risky.[5][6]
A good illustration of the risk of DLC arbitrage is the position in Royal Dutch
Shellwhich had a DLC structure until 2005by the hedge fund Long-Term
Capital Management(LTCM, see also the discussion below). Lowenstein
(2000) [7] describes that LTCM established an arbitrage position in Royal Dutch
Shell in the summer of 1997, when Royal Dutch traded at an 8 to 10 percent
premium. In total $2.3 billion was invested, half of which long in Shell and the
other half short in Royal Dutch (Lowenstein, p. 99). In the autumn of 1998 large
defaults on Russian debt created significant losses for the hedge fund and LTCM
had to unwind several positions. Lowenstein reports that the premium of Royal
Dutch had increased to about 22 percent and LTCM had to close the position and
incur a loss. According to Lowenstein (p. 234), LTCM lost $286 million in

15

equity pairs trading and more than half of this loss is accounted for by the Royal
Dutch Shell trade.

Private to public equities

The market prices for privately held companies are typically viewed from a return
on investment perspective (such as 25%), whilst publicly held and or exchange
listed companies trade on a Price to earnings ratio (P/E) (such as a P/E of 10,
which equates to a 10% ROI). Thus, if a publicly traded company specialises in the
acquisition of privately held companies, from a per-share perspective there is a
gain with every acquisition that falls within these guidelines. Exempli
gratia, Berkshire-Hathaway. A hedge fund that is an example of this type of
arbitrage is Greenridge Capital, which acts as an angel investor retaining equity in
private companies which are in the process of becoming publicly traded, buying in
the private market and later selling in the public market. Private to public equities
arbitrage is a term which can arguably be applied to investment banking in general.
Private markets to public markets differences may also help explain the overnight
windfall gains enjoyed by principals of companies that just did an initial public
offering (IPO).
[edit]Regulatory arbitrage
For more details on this topic, see Jurisdictional arbitrage.
Regulatory arbitrage is where a regulated institution takes advantage of the
difference between its real (or economic) risk and the regulatory position. For
example, if a bank, operating under the Basel I accord, has to hold 8% capital
against default risk, but the real risk of default is lower, it is profitable
16

to securitise the loan, removing the low risk loan from its portfolio. On the other
hand, if the real risk is higher than the regulatory risk then it is profitable to make
that loan and hold on to it, provided it is priced appropriately.
This process can increase the overall riskiness of institutions under a risk
insensitive regulatory regime, as described by Alan Greenspan in his October 1998
speech on The Role of Capital in Optimal Banking Supervision and Regulation.
Regulatory Arbitrage was used for the first time in 2005 when it was applied by
Scott V. Simpson, a partner at law firm Skadden, Arps, to refer to a new defence
tactic in hostile mergers and acquisitions where differing takeover regimes in deals
involving multi-jurisdictions are exploited to the advantage of a target company
under threat.
In economics, regulatory arbitrage (sometimes, tax arbitrage) may be used to refer
to situations when a company can choose a nominal place of business with a
regulatory, legal or tax regime with lower costs. For example,
an insurance company may choose to locate in Bermuda due to preferential tax
rates and policies for insurance companies. This can occur particularly where the
business transaction has no obvious physical location: in the case of many financial
products, it may be unclear "where" the transaction occurs.
Regulatory arbitrage can include restructuring a bank by outsourcing services such
as IT. The outsourcing company takes over the installations, buying out the bank's
assets and charges a periodic service fee back to the bank. This frees up cashflow
usable for new lending by the bank. The bank will have higher IT costs, but counts
on the multiplier effect ofmoney creation and the interest rate spread to make it a
profitable exercise.
Example: Suppose the bank sells its IT installations for 40 million USD. With a
reserve ratio of 10%, the bank can create 400 million USD in additional loans
(there is a time lag, and the bank has to expect to recover the loaned money back
into its books). The bank can often lend (and securitize the loan) to the IT services
company to cover the acquisition cost of the IT installations. This can be at
preferential rates, as the sole client using the IT installation is the bank. If the bank
can generate 5% interest margin on the 400 million of new loans, the bank will
increase interest revenues by 20 million. The IT services company is free to
leverage their balance sheet as aggressively as they and their banker agree to. This
is the reason behind the trend towards outsourcing in the financial sector. Without
this money creation benefit, it is actually more expensive to outsource the IT
operations as the outsourcing adds a layer of management and increases overhead.
[edit]Telecom arbitrage
17

Main article: International telecommunications routes

Telecom arbitrage companies allow phone users to make international calls for free
through certain access numbers. Such services are offered in the United Kingdom;
the telecommunication arbitrage companies get paid an interconnect charge by the
UK mobile networks and then buy international routes at a lower cost. The calls
are seen as free by the UK contract mobile phone customers since they are using
up their allocated monthly minutes rather than paying for additional calls.
Such services were previously offered in the United States by companies such as
FuturePhone.com.[8] These services would operate in rural telephone exchanges,
primarily in small towns in the state of Iowa. In these areas, the local telephone
carriers are allowed to charge a high "termination fee" to the caller's carrier in
order to fund the cost of providing service to the small and sparsely populated
areas that they serve. However, FuturePhone (as well as other similar services)
ceased operations upon legal challenges from AT&T and other service providers.[9]
Statistical arbitrage
Main article: Statistical arbitrage
Statistical arbitrage is an imbalance in expected nominal values. A casino has a
statistical arbitrage in every game of chance that it offersreferred to as the house
advantage, house edge, vigorish or house vigorish.
The debacle of Long-Term Capital Management
Main article: Long-Term Capital Management
Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) lost 4.6 billion U.S. dollars in fixed
income arbitrage in September 1998. LTCM had attempted to make money on the
price difference between different bonds. For example, it would sell U.S. Treasury
securities and buy Italian bond futures. The concept was that because Italian bond
futures had a less liquid market, in the short term Italian bond futures would have a
higher return than U.S. bonds, but in the long term, the prices would converge.
Because the difference was small, a large amount of money had to be borrowed to
make the buying and selling profitable.
The downfall in this system began on August 17, 1998, when Russia defaulted on
its ruble debt and domestic dollar debt. Because the markets were already nervous
due to theAsian financial crisis, investors began selling non-U.S. treasury debt and
buying U.S. treasuries, which were considered a safe investment. As a result the
price on US treasuries began to increase and the return began decreasing because
there were many buyers, and the return (yield) on other bonds began to increase
because there were many sellers (i.e. the price of those bonds fell). This caused the
18

difference between the prices of U.S. treasuries and other bonds to increase, rather
than to decrease as LTCM was expecting. Eventually this caused LTCM to fold,
and their creditors had to arrange a bail-out. More controversially, officials of
the Federal Reserve assisted in the negotiations that led to this bail-out, on the
grounds that so many companies and deals were intertwined with LTCM that if
LTCM actually failed, they would as well, causing a collapse in confidence in the
economic system. Thus LTCM failed as a fixed income arbitrage fund, although it
is unclear what sort of profit was realized by the banks that bailed LTCM out.

Etymology
"Arbitrage" is a French word and denotes a decision by an arbitrator or arbitration
tribunal. (In modern French, "arbitre" usually means referee or umpire.) In the
sense used here it is first defined in 1704 by Mathieu de la Porte in his treatise "La
science des ngocians et teneurs de livres" as a consideration of different exchange
rates to recognize the most profitable places of issuance and settlement for a bill of
exchange ("L'arbitrage est une combinaison que lon fait de plusieurs changes,
pour connoitre [connatre, in modern spelling] quelle place est plus avantageuse
pour tirer et remettre".)[10]
..

Arbitrage betting
Betting arbitrage, miraclebets, surebets, sports arbitraging is a particular case
of arbitrage arising on betting markets due to either bookmakers' different opinions
on event outcomes or plain errors. By placing one bet per each outcome with
different betting companies, the bettor can make a profit, regardless of the outcome
under ideal circumstances. In the bettors' slang an arbitrage is often referred to as
an arb; people who use arbitrage are called arbers. A typical arb is around 2
19

percent, often less; however 4-5 percent are occasionally seen and during some
special events they might reach 20 percent. Arbitrage betting involves relatively
large sums of money (stakes are bigger than in normal betting), due to large sums
of money required to generate a decent profit. It is usually detected faster by
bookmakers. Arbitrage betting is almost always insufficiently profitable due to
detection, hackers, unreliable betting websites, limiting of stakes, and the use of
high percentage arb's to con arbitrage bettors into giving security details.
Bookmakers generally disapprove of arbers, and restrict or close the accounts of
those who they suspect of engaging in arbitrage betting. Although arbitrage betting
has existed since the beginnings of bookmaking, the rise of the Internet, oddscomparison websites and betting exchanges have enabled the practice to be easier
to perform. On the other hand, these changes also made it easier for bookmakers to
keep their odds in line with the market.
The best way of generating profit, which has been established in Britain via sports
arbitrage, consists of highly experienced 'key men' employing others to place bets
on their behalf, so as to avoid detection and increase accessibility to retail
bookmakers. This allows the financiers or key arbers to stay at a computer to keep
track of market movement.
Arbing is an extremely fast-paced process and successful arbing requires lots of
time, experience, dedication and discipline.
There are a number of potential arbitrage deals. Below is an explanation of some of
them including formulas and risks associated with these arbitrage deals. The table
below introduces a number of variables that will be used to formalise the arbitrage
models.
Variable

Explanation
Stake in outcome 1
Stake in outcome 2
Odds for outcome 1
Odds for outcome 2
Return if outcome 1 occurs
Return if outcome 2 occurs
[edit]Arbitrage using bookmakers

20

This type of arbitrage takes advantage of different odds offered by different

bookmakers. Assume the following situation:
We consider an event with 2 possible outcomes (e.g. a tennis match - either Federer
wins or Henman wins), the idea can be generalized to events with more outcomes,
but we use this as an example.
The 2 bookmakers have different ideas of who has the best chances of winning.
They offer the following Fixed-odds gambling on the outcomes of the event
Outcome 1
Outcome 2

Bookmaker 1
1.25
3.9

Bookmaker2
1.43
2.85

For an individual bookmaker, the sum of the inverse of all outcomes of an event
will always be greater than 1.
and
The bookmaker's return rate is
, which is
the amount the bookmaker earns on offering bets at some event. Bookmaker 1 will
in this example expect to earn 5.34% on bets on the tennis game. Usually these
gaps will be in the order 8 - 12%.
The idea is to find odds at different bookmakers, where the sum of the inverse of
all the outcomes are below 1. Meaning that the bookmakers disagree on the
chances of the outcomes. This discrepancy can be used to obtain a profit.
For instance if one places a bet on outcome 1 at bookmaker 2 and outcome 2 at
bookmaker 1:
Placing a bet of $100 on outcome 1 with bookmaker 2 and a bet
of
on outcome 2 at bookmaker 1 would ensure the
bettor a profit.
In case outcome 1 comes out, one could collect
from
bookmaker 2. In case outcome 2 comes out, one could
collect
from bookmaker 1. One would have invested
$136.67, but have collected $143, a profit of $6.33 (4.6%) no matter the outcome
of the event.

21

So for 2 odds and , where

. If one wishes to place stake at
outcome 1, then one should place
at outcome 2, to even out the
odds, and receive the same return no matter the outcome of the event.
Or in other words, if there are two outcomes, a 2/1 and a 3/1, by covering the 2/1
with $500 and the 3/1 with $333, one is guaranteed to win $1000 at a cost of $833,
giving a 20% profit. More often profits exists around the 4% mark or less.
Reducing the risk of human error is vital being that the mathematical formula is
sound and only external factors add "risk". Numerous online arbitrage calculator
tools exist to help bettors get the math right. For example, arb calculators can
handle calculations for both book arbitrage (back/back or lay/lay) and back/lay
arbitrage opportunities on an intra-exchange or inter-exchange basis, and is free.
NOTE For arbs involving three outcomes (e.g. WIN, LOSE and DRAW) having
the odds for Outcome 1, for outcome 2 and for outcome 3 with there
respective bids being , and and sum of the bids being B.
The amount required to bet on each possibility in order to ensure profit can be
calculated by

[edit]Back-lay sports arbitrage

Betting exchanges such as Smarkets have opened up a new range of arbitrage

possibilities since on the exchanges it is possible to lay (i.e. to bet against) as well
as to back an outcome. Arbitrage using only the back or lay side might occur on
betting exchanges. It is in principle the same as the arbitrage using different
bookmakers. Arbitrage using back and lay side is possible if a lay bet on one
exchange provides shorter odds than a back bet on another exchange or
bookmaker. However, the commission charged by the bookmakers and exchanges
must be included into calculations.
Back-lay sports arbitrage is often called scalping or trading. Scalping is not
actually arbitrage, but short term trading. In the context of sports arbitrage betting a
scalping trader or scalper looks to make lots of small profits, which in time can add
up. In theory a trader could turn a small investment into large profits by reinvesting his earlier profits into future bets so as to generate exponential growth.
22

Scalping relies on liquidity in the markets and that the odds will fluctuate around a
mean point. A key advantage to scalping on one exchange is that most exchanges
charge commission only on the net winnings in a particular event, thus ensuring
that even the smallest favorable difference in the odds will guarantee some profit.
[edit]Bonus sports arbitrage
Many bookmakers offer first time users a signup bonus in the range $10 $200 for
depositing an initial amount. They typically demand that this amount is wagered a
number of times before the bonus can be withdrawn. Bonus sport arbitraging is a
form of sports arbitraging where you hedge or back your bets as usual, but since
you received the bonus, a small loss can be allowed on each wager (2-5%), which
comes off your profit. In this way the bookmakers wagering demand can be met
and the initial deposit and sign up bonus can be withdrawn with little loss.
The advantage over usual betting arbitrage is that it is a lot easier to find bets
with an acceptable loss, instead of an actual profit. Since most bookmakers offer
these bonuses this can potentially be exploited to harvest the sign up bonuses.
Making money:
By signing up to various bookmakers, it's possible to turn these 'free' bets into cash
fairly quickly, and either making a small arbitrage, or in the majority of cases,
making a small loss on each bet, or trade. However, it is relatively time consuming
to find close matched bets or arbs, which is where an arb / close matched bet
service is useful. Additionally as many bookies require a certain turnover of the
bonus amount, matching money from different bookies against each other enables
the player to in effect quickly "play free" the money of the losing bookie and in
effect transfer it to the winning bookie. By in this way avoiding most of the
turnover requirements the player can usually expect a 70-80 return on investment.
Drawbacks:
As well as spending time physically matching odds from various bet sites to
exchanges, the other draw back with bonus bagging / arb trading in this sense is
that often the free bets are 'non-stake returned'. This effectively reduces the odds,
in decimal format, by 1. Therefore, in order to reduce 'losses' on the free bet, it is
necessary to place a bet with high odds, so that the percentage difference of the
decrease in odds is minimised.
[edit]Arbitrage in practice
While often claimed to be "risk-free", this is only true if an arb is successfully
completed; in reality, there are several threats to this:

23

Disappearance of arb: Arbs in online sports markets have a median lifetime of

around 15 minutes,[1] after which the difference in odds underpinning them
vanishes through betting activity. Without rapid alerting (Surebet Monitor services
or software) and action, it is possible to fail to make all the "legs" of the arb before
it vanishes, thus transforming it from a risk-free arb into a conventional bet with
the usual risks involved. High street bookmakers however, offer their odds days in
advance and rarely change them once they've been set. These arbs can have a
lifetime of several hours.
Hackers: Due to the large amount of accounts that have to be created and managed
(containing personal details like eMail, name, address, eWallet, credit card info
etc.), arbitrage traders are highly susceptible to cyber fraud, such as bank account
theft. While making deposits is usually made easy and quick, making withdrawals
always requires proof of identity in the form of passport/driver license, copies of
which need to be shared with the bookies via fax/email or even postal mail, which
causes additional identity theft risks. It is estimated that at least 20%-30% of all
arbitrage bettors fall victim to some form of cyber crime. Traders are often
attracted to high odds comparison sites that yield high percentage profits per
stake(5-30%), this is often used by hackers to lure a high number of arbitrage
bettors that then place large sums of money on these arb's, only to lose all of the
profit and even entire savings in bank accounts to hackers or untrustworthy
websites, which may further use the gathered data to sell personal data to
criminals.
Making errors: In the excitement of the action and due to the high number of bets
placed, it is not uncommon to make a mistake (like traders on financial markets).
For example the appropriate stakes may be incorrectly calculated, or be placed on
the wrong "legs" of the arb, locking in a loss, or there may be inadequate funds in
one of the accounts to complete the arb. Those errors might temporarily have an
important impact. In the long term, the benefit will depend on the odds. For
example one could actually make more money by placing the "wrong" bet where
the outcome happens to be beneficial, though not justified by the arbitrage
calculation. However, this stroke of luck being repeated is unlikely, assuming
the bookies have calculated the odds so they make a profit. Furthermore, bookie
websites and bet placement interfaces differ with all bookies, so that arbers need to
be familiar with different web interfaces. In some sports different bookmakers deal
with outcomes in different ways; e.g. player withdrawal due to injury in tennis,
treatment of overtime in ice hockey, meaning that both "legs" can lose. Matching
terms for all bookmakers is time consuming.
Detection: There are only very few bookies who openly tolerate arbing (such as
for example pinnaclesports.com). Many bookmakers may now be using shared
24

security servers in order to pinpoint people suspected of arbitrage betting, they can
simply limit stakes to make arbing unprofitable and even close accounts without
honouring a bet that was placed. Loss of deposited money into a bookmaker could
occur. This usually leads to unprofitable arbing as the most successful bookmakers
are so adept at identifying arbitrage bettors, without these countermeasure the
gambling industry would not be able to generate a large overall profit consistently
every year.
Bet cancellation: If a bettor places bets so as to make an arbitrage and one
bookmaker cancels a bet, the bettor could find himself in a bad position because he
is actually betting with all the risks implied. The bettor can repeat the bet that has
been cancelled so as minimize the risk, but if he cannot get the same odds he had
before he may be forced to take a loss. In some cases the situation arises when
there are very high potential payouts by the bookie, perhaps due to an unintentional
error made while quoting odds. Many jurisdictions allow bookmakers to cancel
bets in the event of such a "palpable" ["obvious"] error in the quoted odds This is
often loosely defined as an obvious mistake, but whether a "palp" in fact has been
made is often the sole discretion of the bookmaker.

Other problems:

Bookmakers who encourage responsible gambling will close accounts where

they see only large losses, unaware that the arb trader has made wins at other
books.

Capital diffusion is serious; many bookmakers make it very easy to deposit

funds and difficult to withdraw them. Making a return involves many bets
spread over typically many bookmakers so keeping track is a considerable
challenge, and requires excellent record-keeping and discipline.

While there are commercial software products and web services available to
help with some of these tasks, these are usually still fairly complicated tools
which also further lower the total RoR because of the initial investment
required, or even the monthly subscription fees involved.
25

Arbers using software tools or web services to find arbs, will often make an
existing arb even more prominent and obvious to the bookie because of the
number of arbers placing bets on the same outcome, so that the lifetime of an
arb found via such tools is often even much shorter than the average 15
minutes. Thus, the risk of seeing bets revoked is also often much higher for arbs
found via such tools than for arbs found manually, that are not shared with
other arbers.

In addition, arbing often involves making use of bookie bonuses, these

however, usually need to be turned over a number of times before a bettor
becomes eligible for withdrawal, which may further reduce his total liquidity.

Foreign currency movements can wipe out small percentage gains and can
make quick calculation of stakes difficult.

Transferring funds between bookmakers and eWallets may create additional

costs at some point, most bookmakers and/or eWallets limit deposits to certain
amounts per month.

Withdrawals are often limited to a certain amount per month or to a certain

number of free withdrawals per month

Withdrawals are often charged for, not just on the side of the bookie, but
sometimes also on the eWallet side (transfer to the bettor's bank account).

In some countries, additional costs are caused by government taxes, so that

the final profit is further reduced by a fixed percentage of say 5%.

Professional arbitrage betting may eat up considerable time and energy and
requires lots of experience and liquidity, as well as sufficient funds to recover
from inevitable losses that will happen sooner or later due to some of the
aforementioned reasons.

Typically, arbs have a profit margin of only 2-5% - many other arbs are so
called "high risk" arbs ("palps"). Accordingly, profits accumulated through 2040 successful arbs can be quickly lost just with a single failed arb.

26

Risk arbitrage
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Risk arbitrage, or merger arbitrage, is an investment or trading strategy often
associated with hedge funds.
Two principal types of merger are possible: a cash merger, and a stock merger. In a
cash merger, an acquirer proposes to purchase the shares of the target for a certain
price in cash. Until the acquisition is completed, the stock of the target typically
trades below the purchase price. An arbitrageur buys the stock of the target and
makes a gain if the acquirer ultimately buys the stock.
In a stock for stock merger, the acquirer proposes to buy the target by exchanging
its own stock for the stock of the target. An arbitrageur may then short sell the
acquirer and buy the stock of the target. This process is called "setting a spread."
After the merger is completed, the target's stock will be converted into stock of the
acquirer based on the exchange ratio determined by the merger agreement. The
arbitrageur delivers the converted stock into his short position to complete the
arbitrage.
If this strategy were risk-free, many investors would immediately adopt it, and any
possible gain for any investor would disappear. However, risk arises from the
possibility of deals failing to go through. Obstacles may include either party's
inability to satisfy conditions of the merger, a failure to obtain the requisite
shareholder approval, failure to receive antitrustand other regulatory clearances, or
some other event which may change the target's or the acquirer's willingness to
consummate the transaction. Such possibilities put the risk in the term risk
arbitrage.
Additional complications can arise in stock for stock mergers when the exchange
ratio is not constant but changes with the price of the acquirer. These are called
"collars" and arbitrageurs use options-based models to value deals with collars. In
addition, the exchange ratio is commonly determined by taking the average of the
acquirer's closing price over a period of time (typically 10 trading days prior to

27

close), during which time the arbitrageur would actively hedge his position in order
to ensure the correct hedge ratio.
In terms of hedge fund strategies, risk arbitrage shares some properties with other
forms of arbitrage such as relative value, volatility arbitrage, convertible arbitrage,
and statistical arbitrage, but it is also an example of an event driven strategy

Uncovered interest arbitrage

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
28

Uncovered interest arbitrage is an arbitrage trading strategy whereby an investor

capitalizes on the interest rate differential between two countries. Unlike covered
interest arbitrage, uncovered interest arbitrage involves no hedging of foreign
exchange risk with the use of forward contracts or any other contract.[1][2] The
strategy is not completely riskless as an investor exposed to exchange rate
fluctuations is speculating that exchange rates will remain favorable enough for
arbitrage to be possible.[3] The opportunity to earn riskless profits arises from the
reality that the interest rate parity condition does not constantly hold. When foreign
exchange markets or interest rates are not in a state ofequilibrium, investors will no
longer be indifferent among the available interest rates in two countries and will
invest in whichever currency offers a higher rate of return.[4] Economists have
discovered various factors which affect the occurrence of deviations from
uncovered interest rate parity and the fleeting nature of uncovered interest arbitrage
opportunities, such as differing characteristics of assets, varying frequencies
of time series data, and the transaction costs associated with arbitrage trading
strategies.
[edit]Mechanics of uncovered interest arbitrage

A visual representation of a simplified uncovered interest arbitrage scenario,

ignoring compounding interest.
An arbitrageur executes an uncovered interest arbitrage strategy by exchanging
domestic currency for foreign currency at the currentspot exchange rate, then
investing the foreign currency at the foreign interest rate.[5][6]
For example, consider that an investor with $5,000,000 USD is considering
whether to invest abroad using an uncovered interest arbitrage strategy or to invest
29

domestically. The dollar deposit interest rate is 3.4% in the United States, while the
euro deposit rate is 4.6% in the euro area. The current spot exchange rate is 1.2730
$/. For simplicity, the example ignores compounding interest. Investing
$5,000,000 USD domestically at 3.4% for six months ignoring compounding, will
result in a future value of $5,170,000 USD. However, exchanging $5,000,000
dollars for euros today, investing those euros at 4.6% for six months ignoring
compounding, and exchanging the future value of euros for dollars at the future
spot exchange rate (which for this example is 1.2820 $/), will result in $5,266,976
USD, implying that investing abroad using uncovered interest arbitrage is the
superior alternative if the future spot exchange rate turns out to be favorable.

30