CE 415: Transportation Engineering II

Trip Generation
Gopal R. Patil
Indian Institute of Technology Bombay,
Mumbai

Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ)

The city or the region under consideration for
demand model is divided into smaller areas called
Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs)
Guidelines on Creating TAZs

Homogeneous socio-economic characteristics

Minimum intra-zonal trips
Physical, political, and historical boundaries observed
Use census tract boundaries whenever possible

Trip Generation
Trip Generation is the first step in classic four-stage
Demand Models
Answers to a question, how many trips produced by and
attracted to a Traffic Analysis Zone?

Basic Definitions
A Trip in transport modeling is a travel from an
origin to a destination
Home Based Trip: One of the trip ends is home
(place of residence)
Example: A trip from home to office

Non Home based trips: None of the trip end is

home
Example: A trip from office to Shopping Mall

Trip Productions and Attractions

Trip Production: Home end of a home-based (HB)
trip or the origin of non-home-based (NHB) trip
Trip Attraction: Non-home end of a HB trip or the
destination of a NHB trip

Trip Productions and Attractions

Home-based Trips
Residential
Area

Production

Attraction

Production

Attraction

Non-residential
Area

Non-home-based Trips
Non-residential
Area

Production

Attraction

Attraction

Production

= Origin
= Destination

Non-residential
Area

Classification of Trips
Trip Purpose

Work
Compulsory Trips
School
Shopping
Social and recreation
Discretionary Trips
other

Classification of Trips
Time of Day
Peak hour
Off-peak hour

Person Type
Income (different income levels; e.g., low, middle,
high)
Car ownership (0, 1, 2, 3 or more cars)
Household size and structure

Typical Trip Chain

1.Home-based work trip
Home

Work

2.NonHome-based
shopping trip

3. Home-based
shopping trip

Market

123 :Tour or Trip Chain

(home-based)

Factors Affecting Trip Generation

Trip Production

No of workers in a household
No of Students
Household size and composition
The household income
Some proxy of income such as number of cars, etc.
Accessibility

Trip Attraction

Land use
Commercial space
Number of employees
accessibility

Trip Generation Models

Trip Rates
Growth factor models
Based on extrapolation from existing condition

Regression Models
Explanatory Variables are used to predict trip generation
rates, usually by Multiple Regression

Cross - Classification / Category Analysis

Average trip generation rates are associated with different
trip generators or land uses as a function of generator or
land use attributes

Models may be TAZ, Household, or Person - Based

Trip Rates
Trips are obtained from trip rate tables or
charts prepared using historical data of
different places
For example, Trip Generation handbook
prepared by Institute of transportation
engineers (ITE) using data from the USA

Number of Persons

Trips

Trips

Trip Rates

Number of Vehicles

Easy and minimal data requirements (+)

Can result in different values of trip generation for
different known factors (-)

Growth Factor Model

Based on extrapolation from existing condition
=

is the number of future trips in zone

is the number of current trips in zone
is a growth factor

Not easy to estimate

Usually
, ,
=
, ,

Growth Factor Model

In a simple form

: population
: Income

Easy method but very simplistic

Usually used to estimate trips in external zones

Regression Method
Statistical methodology that utilizes the relation
between two or more quantitative variables so that
one variable can be predicated from others
The general form of a trip generation model is
= (1 , 2 , , )

A multiple linear regression model will of the

following form:
= 0 + 1 1 + 2 2 +, , + +, .
Where, 1 , 2 , , are predictor variable

Zonal Based Regression

Trips produced or attracted in a zone is a function of
socioeconomic characteristics of households in that
zone
Two forms of variables:
Aggregate, that is, zonal total (eg. Zonal population, total
number of cars, etc)
Heteroscedasticity (larger zones have larger variance)
Zonal average (avg. HH income, avg. HH car ownership,
etc)

Zonal Based Regression

Can only explain the variation in trip making behavior
between zones (zones need to be homogeneous and
small)
Model should not be developed by mixing aggregate
and average variables
Models with very high intercepts may be rejected

House Hold Based Regression Model

Trip per household is a function of household
socioeconomic variables (HH size, HH income, HH
cars)
Zonal characteristics do not influence the trip
predications
Intra zonal trips are not ignored
More accurate and better representation than the
zonal based model

House Hold Based Regression Model

Eg. = 0.84 + 1.211 + 0.92
= trips per HH
1 = number of workers in the HH
2 = number or cars

Zone based models are useful for trip attraction whereas

House hold models are popular for trip productions

Non-linear Relationship
Some factors that influence trip generation can have
non linear relationship
6

Couples without
kids

Trips per HH

Couples with two

kids and one adult

Couples with
one kid

4
3

1 car 1 worker

2
1
0
0

2
3
4
Number of persons in HH

Non-linear Relationship
Two approaches to linearize the non-linear
relationship
Variable transformation (logarithm, power, etc)
Use of dummy variables: The independent variables
with non-linear relationship is divided into several
intervals

Use of Dummy Variables

= 0 + 1 1 + 2 2

1 = number of workers in the HH

2 = number or cars

The variable 2 can be divided into car ownership of

0, 1, and 2 or more (needs two dummy variables)
The resulting model with two dummy variables
= 0 + 1 1 + 2 1 + b
2 z2
1 = 1 if HH with one car; 0 otherwise
2 = 1 if HH with two or more car; 0 otherwise

Use of Dummy Variables

8

2 or more cars

1 cars

Trips per HH

0 cars

5
4
3
2
1
0
0

2
3
4
Number of Workers in HH

Aggregation (Zonal Total)

Zonal models: Trips at zonal level are readily
available
Household models
Linear Models: aggregation is straight forward
Consider
Trips for zone
Number of households in zone
Average number of workers per HH
Average number of cars per HH

Aggregation (Zonal Total)

Model with Dummy Variables
Model, = 0 + 1 1 + 2 1 + b
2 z2
Aggregation
= (0 +1 1 ) + 2 1 + 2 2
1 = number of HH with one car
2 = number of HH with two or more cars

Category Analysis (Cross-classification)

Conceptualize population segment according to key
trip generation variables (car ownership, income and
household structure )
All households are assigned a household group
If four household sizes (1, 2, 3, and 4 or more) and
three car ownership groups (0, 1, and 2 or more), we
have 12 household groups (cells)
The trip rates are estimated for each group (cell)
Trip generation rates for household are assumed to
remain reasonably stable over time

Pros and Cons

Pros
Grouping is independent of the zoning
No prior assumption about the relationship between
response and predictor variable (Linear, monotonic,
etc)

Cons
Extrapolation not possible
Large sample size required
Grouping of variables is arbitrary

An Example
Sample Rates using Crossclassification
HH Size 0

Car Ownership
1

2 or more

Number of Households
Car Ownership

HH Size

50

200

2 or more

0.12

0.94

2 or 3

0.60

1.38

2.16

2 or 3

30

150

450

1.14

1.74

2.6

20

100

600

1.02

1.69

2.60

50

300

Total number of trips produced in the zone ,

T = 0.12 x 50 + 0.94 x 200 + .. + 2.60 x 300 = 992 trips per day

Thank You!
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