Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Price Forecast World Bank
Price Forecast World Bank
Commodity
Unit
Energy
Coal, Australia
Crude oil, avg, spot
Natural gas, Europe
Natural gas, US
Natural gas LNG, Japan
$/mt
$/bbl
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
84.6
104.1
11.8
3.7
16.0
70.1
96.2
10.1
4.4
15.8
67.0
53.2
8.5
4.0
11.0
69.7
56.9
8.6
4.2
11.1
72.6
60.8
8.8
4.5
11.3
75.6
65.0
8.9
4.7
11.4
78.6
69.4
9.1
5.0
11.6
81.9
74.1
9.2
5.3
11.7
85.2
79.2
9.4
5.6
11.9
88.7
84.6
9.5
5.9
12.0
92.3
90.4
9.7
6.3
12.2
96.1
96.7
9.8
6.6
12.3
100.0
103.4
10.0
7.0
12.5
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
2.44
3.08
2.08
2.86
3.06
4.42
2.22
2.72
2.85
4.10
2.10
2.75
2.78
4.04
2.07
2.79
2.71
3.97
2.04
2.83
2.64
3.91
2.01
2.88
2.57
3.85
1.97
2.92
2.50
3.79
1.94
2.97
2.44
3.73
1.91
3.01
2.38
3.67
1.89
3.06
2.32
3.61
1.86
3.10
2.26
3.56
1.83
3.15
2.20
3.50
1.80
3.20
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
941
1,773
857
545
1,057
538
1,280
1,313
821
528
909
492
1,200
1,400
700
525
820
450
1,166
1,440
709
520
836
457
1,133
1,480
719
516
853
463
1,101
1,522
729
511
870
470
1,070
1,565
738
507
888
477
1,039
1,609
748
502
906
484
1,010
1,655
758
498
924
491
981
1,702
769
493
942
498
953
1,750
779
489
961
505
926
1,799
789
484
980
513
900
1,850
800
480
1,000
520
Grains
Barley
Maize
Rice, Thailand, 5%
Wheat, US, HRW
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
202.2
259.4
505.9
312.2
137.6
192.9
422.8
284.9
140.0
180.0
415.0
280.0
143.6
183.6
411.4
279.5
147.2
187.4
407.8
279.0
151.0
191.2
404.2
278.5
154.8
195.0
400.6
278.0
158.7
199.0
397.1
277.5
162.8
203.0
393.6
277.0
166.9
207.1
390.2
276.5
171.2
211.3
386.8
276.0
175.5
215.6
383.4
275.5
180.0
220.0
380.0
275.0
Other Food
Bananas, EU
Meat, beef
Meat, chicken
Oranges
Shrimp, Mexico
Sugar, World
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
0.92
4.07
2.29
0.97
13.84
0.39
0.93
4.95
2.43
0.78
17.25
0.37
0.94
5.00
2.40
0.80
16.50
0.35
0.94
4.91
2.36
0.81
16.11
0.35
0.94
4.83
2.31
0.83
15.73
0.36
0.93
4.75
2.27
0.84
15.36
0.36
0.93
4.66
2.23
0.86
15.00
0.36
0.93
4.58
2.19
0.87
14.65
0.36
0.93
4.50
2.15
0.89
14.30
0.37
0.93
4.43
2.11
0.90
13.96
0.37
0.92
4.35
2.07
0.92
13.63
0.37
0.92
4.27
2.04
0.93
13.31
0.38
0.92
4.20
2.00
0.95
13.00
0.38
$/cum
$/cum
$/cum
463.5
305.4
852.8
465.2
282.0
897.9
450.0
270.0
870.0
457.4
277.9
889.0
465.0
286.0
908.4
472.6
294.3
928.3
480.4
302.9
948.6
488.4
311.8
969.3
496.4
320.9
990.5
504.6
330.2
1,012.2
512.9
339.9
1,034.3
521.4
349.8
1,056.9
530.0
360.0
1,080.0
$/kg
$/kg
$/mt
1.99
2.79
4,589
1.83
1.96
4,999
1.60
1.70
4,700
1.65
1.77
4,658
1.71
1.85
4,617
1.76
1.93
4,576
1.82
2.01
4,536
1.88
2.10
4,496
1.94
2.19
4,456
2.00
2.29
4,416
2.06
2.39
4,377
2.13
2.49
4,338
2.20
2.60
4,300
Fertilizers
DAP
Phosphate rock
Potassium chloride
TSP
Urea, E. Europe, bulk
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
444.9
148.1
379.2
382.1
340.1
472.5
110.2
297.2
388.3
316.2
450.0
110.0
300.0
390.0
300.0
449.0
107.8
301.0
385.8
297.9
448.0
105.7
302.0
381.7
295.9
447.0
103.6
303.0
377.5
293.9
446.0
101.5
304.0
373.5
291.8
445.0
99.5
305.0
369.5
289.8
444.0
97.5
306.0
365.5
287.8
443.0
95.6
307.0
361.5
285.9
442.0
93.7
308.0
357.7
283.9
441.0
91.8
309.0
353.8
281.9
440.0
90.0
310.0
350.0
280.0
$/mt
$/mt
$/dmt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
1,847
7,332
135
2,140
15,032
22,283
1,910
1,867
6,863
97
2,095
16,893
21,899
2,161
1,925
6,500
75
2,000
16,000
20,000
2,200
1,946
6,529
78
2,037
16,190
20,281
2,228
1,968
6,559
81
2,074
16,381
20,567
2,257
1,990
6,589
84
2,112
16,575
20,856
2,286
2,012
6,618
87
2,151
16,772
21,150
2,315
2,034
6,648
91
2,191
16,971
21,448
2,345
2,057
6,678
94
2,231
17,172
21,749
2,375
2,080
6,709
98
2,272
17,375
22,056
2,406
2,103
6,739
102
2,314
17,581
22,366
2,437
2,126
6,769
106
2,357
17,789
22,681
2,468
2,150
6,800
110
2,400
18,000
23,000
2,500
$/toz
$/toz
$/toz
1,411
23.8
1,487
1,266
19.1
1,384
1,240
18.0
1,250
1,225
18.3
1,245
1,211
18.6
1,240
1,196
18.9
1,235
1,182
19.1
1,230
1,168
19.4
1,225
1,154
19.7
1,220
1,140
20.1
1,215
1,127
20.4
1,210
1,113
20.7
1,205
1,100
21.0
1,200
Food
Oils and Meals
Coconut oil
Groundnut oil
Palm oil
Soybean meal
Soybean oil
Soybeans
Raw Materials
Timber
Logs, Cameroon
Logs, Malaysia
Sawnwood, Malaysia
Other Raw Materials
Cotton A Index
Rubber, Malaysian
Tobacco
Precious Metals
Gold
Silver
Platinum
-1-
Commodity
Unit
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Energy
Coal, Australia
Crude oil, avg, spot
Natural gas, Europe
Natural gas, US
Natural gas LNG, Japan
$/mt
$/bbl
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
79.7
98.1
11.1
3.5
15.0
66.2
90.9
9.5
4.1
14.9
63.4
50.3
8.0
3.8
10.4
64.8
52.9
8.0
3.9
10.4
66.3
55.6
8.0
4.1
10.3
68.0
58.4
8.0
4.3
10.3
69.6
61.4
8.0
4.4
10.2
71.3
64.6
8.0
4.6
10.2
73.1
67.9
8.0
4.8
10.2
74.8
71.4
8.0
5.0
10.2
76.6
75.0
8.0
5.2
10.1
78.4
78.9
8.0
5.4
10.1
80.2
82.9
8.0
5.6
10.0
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
2.30
2.90
1.96
2.70
2.89
4.18
2.09
2.57
2.70
3.88
1.99
2.60
2.58
3.75
1.92
2.59
2.47
3.63
1.86
2.59
2.37
3.52
1.80
2.59
2.28
3.41
1.75
2.59
2.18
3.30
1.69
2.59
2.09
3.20
1.64
2.58
2.01
3.10
1.59
2.58
1.92
3.00
1.54
2.58
1.84
2.90
1.49
2.57
1.76
2.81
1.44
2.57
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
887
1,672
808
514
996
508
1,209
1,240
775
498
859
464
1,136
1,325
663
497
776
426
1,083
1,337
659
483
777
424
1,035
1,353
657
471
780
423
990
1,369
655
460
783
423
947
1,386
654
448
786
422
906
1,402
652
437
789
422
866
1,419
650
427
792
421
828
1,436
649
416
795
420
791
1,452
646
406
798
419
756
1,468
644
395
800
418
722
1,484
642
385
802
417
Grains
Barley
Maize
Rice, Thailand, 5%
Wheat, US, HRW
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
190.6
244.6
477.0
294.4
129.9
182.2
399.4
269.1
132.5
170.4
392.8
265.0
133.4
170.6
382.2
259.7
134.5
171.2
372.7
255.0
135.8
172.0
363.6
250.5
137.1
172.7
354.7
246.1
138.3
173.4
346.1
241.8
139.6
174.1
337.6
237.6
140.9
174.8
329.2
233.3
142.1
175.4
320.9
229.0
143.2
175.9
312.8
224.8
144.4
176.4
304.8
220.6
Other Food
Bananas, EU
Meat, beef
Meat, chicken
Oranges
Shrimp, Mexico
Sugar, World
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
0.87
3.84
2.16
0.91
13.05
0.37
0.88
4.67
2.29
0.74
16.29
0.35
0.89
4.73
2.27
0.76
15.62
0.33
0.87
4.56
2.19
0.76
14.97
0.33
0.86
4.41
2.11
0.76
14.38
0.33
0.84
4.27
2.04
0.76
13.82
0.32
0.83
4.13
1.98
0.76
13.28
0.32
0.81
3.99
1.91
0.76
12.76
0.32
0.80
3.86
1.85
0.76
12.27
0.32
0.78
3.73
1.78
0.76
11.78
0.31
0.77
3.61
1.72
0.76
11.31
0.31
0.75
3.49
1.66
0.76
10.86
0.31
0.74
3.37
1.60
0.76
10.43
0.30
$/cum
$/cum
$/cum
437.1
288.0
804.1
439.3
266.4
848.1
425.9
255.6
823.5
425.0
258.2
825.9
425.0
261.4
830.3
425.1
264.8
835.0
425.4
268.2
839.9
425.6
271.7
844.7
425.8
275.2
849.5
425.8
278.6
854.0
425.7
282.0
858.3
425.4
285.4
862.3
425.1
288.7
866.2
$/kg
$/kg
$/mt
1.88
2.63
4,327
1.73
1.85
4,721
1.51
1.61
4,449
1.53
1.65
4,328
1.56
1.69
4,220
1.58
1.74
4,116
1.61
1.78
4,016
1.63
1.83
3,918
1.66
1.88
3,821
1.69
1.93
3,726
1.71
1.98
3,632
1.74
2.03
3,540
1.76
2.09
3,449
Fertilizers
DAP
Phosphate rock
Potassium chloride
TSP
Urea, E. Europe, bulk
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
419.5
139.7
357.5
360.2
320.7
446.3
104.1
280.7
366.8
298.7
425.9
104.1
284.0
369.1
284.0
417.1
100.2
279.6
358.4
276.8
409.4
96.6
276.0
348.8
270.4
402.1
93.2
272.5
339.6
264.3
394.8
89.9
269.1
330.7
258.4
387.8
86.7
265.8
322.0
252.6
380.8
83.6
262.4
313.5
246.9
373.8
80.7
259.0
305.1
241.2
366.8
77.7
255.6
296.8
235.6
359.8
74.9
252.1
288.7
230.0
352.9
72.2
248.6
280.7
224.6
$/mt
$/mt
$/dmt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
1,741
6,913
128
2,018
14,173
21,010
1,801
1,764
6,482
92
1,979
15,955
20,683
2,041
1,822
6,152
71
1,893
15,144
18,930
2,082
1,808
6,066
72
1,892
15,041
18,843
2,070
1,799
5,994
74
1,896
14,972
18,797
2,063
1,790
5,926
76
1,900
14,910
18,760
2,056
1,781
5,860
77
1,905
14,849
18,725
2,050
1,773
5,794
79
1,909
14,789
18,691
2,044
1,764
5,728
81
1,914
14,727
18,653
2,037
1,755
5,661
83
1,917
14,661
18,610
2,030
1,745
5,592
85
1,920
14,590
18,560
2,022
1,735
5,523
86
1,923
14,514
18,506
2,014
1,724
5,454
88
1,925
14,437
18,447
2,005
$/toz
$/toz
$/toz
1,331
22.5
1,402
1,195
18.0
1,307
1,174
17.0
1,183
1,138
17.0
1,157
1,106
17.0
1,133
1,076
17.0
1,111
1,046
17.0
1,089
1,018
16.9
1,067
990
16.9
1,046
962
16.9
1,025
935
16.9
1,004
908
16.9
983
882
16.8
962
Food
Fats and Oils
Coconut oil
Groundnut oil
Palm oil
Soybean meal
Soybean oil
Soybeans
Raw Materials
Timber
Logs, Cameroon
Logs, Malaysia
Sawnwood, Malaysia
Other Raw Materials
Cotton A Index
Rubber, Malaysian
Tobacco
Precious Metals
Gold
Silver
Platinum
-2-
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
127.4
101.7
106.3
83.3
115.6
115.9
128.2
103.9
95.4
102.6
87.6
113.7
90.8
90.3
115.1
118.3
97.0
102.7
101.8
107.4
109.0
103.9
108.4
92.0
104.9
77.8
100.5
84.8
89.0
101.1
70.4
92.3
97.8
96.1
102.8
101.3
100.1
107.3
86.4
101.3
70.1
98.4
80.3
87.0
98.2
74.9
92.8
98.2
94.8
103.0
101.8
100.7
106.7
88.2
103.7
71.3
97.6
81.2
87.7
97.5
79.7
93.4
98.7
93.5
103.2
102.4
101.3
106.1
90.1
106.1
72.6
96.8
82.2
88.5
96.9
84.7
94.0
99.1
92.2
103.5
103.0
102.0
105.6
92.1
108.6
74.0
96.1
83.3
89.2
96.2
90.0
94.7
99.7
91.0
103.8
103.6
102.6
105.0
94.1
111.2
75.4
95.3
84.3
90.0
95.6
95.7
95.3
100.2
89.9
104.1
104.2
103.3
104.5
96.1
113.8
76.9
94.6
85.4
90.7
94.9
101.7
96.0
100.8
88.7
104.3
104.9
104.0
103.9
98.3
116.5
78.4
93.9
86.4
91.5
94.3
108.2
96.7
101.4
87.6
104.6
105.6
104.7
103.4
100.5
119.2
80.0
93.2
87.6
92.3
93.7
115.1
97.5
102.0
86.5
105.0
106.3
105.5
102.8
102.8
122.0
81.8
92.5
88.7
93.1
93.2
122.6
98.3
102.7
85.5
105.3
107.0
106.3
102.3
105.1
124.8
83.5
91.8
89.9
93.9
92.6
130.6
99.1
103.4
84.5
105.7
107.7
107.1
101.8
107.5
127.8
85.4
91.1
91.0
94.7
92.0
111.7
91.6
97.0
96.1
101.4
102.9
98.1
102.4
86.9
99.0
73.5
94.9
80.1
84.1
95.5
66.6
87.3
92.5
91.0
97.3
95.8
94.7
101.6
81.8
95.9
66.3
93.1
76.0
82.3
93.0
69.6
86.2
91.2
88.1
95.7
94.6
93.5
99.1
82.0
96.4
66.3
90.7
75.5
81.5
90.6
72.8
85.4
90.2
85.4
94.4
93.6
92.6
97.0
82.4
97.0
66.4
88.5
75.2
80.8
88.5
76.2
84.6
89.2
83.0
93.1
92.6
91.7
95.0
82.8
97.7
66.5
86.4
74.9
80.2
86.5
79.7
83.8
88.2
80.6
91.9
91.7
90.9
93.0
83.3
98.4
66.7
84.4
74.6
79.7
84.6
83.4
83.1
87.3
78.3
90.7
90.8
90.0
91.1
83.8
99.2
67.0
82.5
74.4
79.1
82.7
87.2
82.3
86.4
76.1
89.5
89.9
89.2
89.1
84.3
99.9
67.3
80.5
74.1
78.5
80.9
91.3
81.6
85.6
73.9
88.3
89.1
88.4
87.2
84.8
100.6
67.5
78.6
73.9
77.9
79.1
95.6
80.9
84.7
71.8
87.1
88.2
87.5
85.3
85.3
101.2
67.8
76.7
73.6
77.2
77.3
100.0
80.2
83.8
69.7
85.9
87.3
86.7
83.4
85.8
101.9
68.2
74.9
73.3
76.6
75.5
104.7
79.5
82.9
67.8
84.8
86.4
85.9
81.6
86.3
102.5
68.5
73.1
73.0
75.9
73.8
105.9
(0.2)
106.9
1.3
105.7
(0.2)
108.5
1.6
107.6
1.9
110.7
2.0
109.4
1.7
113.0
2.0
111.2
1.6
115.3
2.0
112.9
1.6
117.6
2.0
114.8
1.6
120.0
2.0
116.6
1.6
122.4
2.0
118.5
1.6
124.9
2.0
120.5
1.7
127.4
2.0
122.6
1.7
130.0
2.0
124.7
1.7
132.6
2.0
106.1
(1.4)
105.4
1.5
Notes:
Next update: April 2015
a/ Base metals plus iron ore
b/ Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc
c/ Real price indices are computed from unrounded data and deflated by the MUV index.
d/ Inflation indices for 2013-2025 are projections
e/ Unit value index of manufacture exports (MUV) in US dollar terms for fifteen countries (Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, F rance, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of
Korea, South Africa, Spain, Thailand, United Kingdom, and United States).
-3-
Coconut oil (Philippines/Indonesia), bulk, c.i.f. Rotterdam. Copra (Philippines/Indonesia), bulk, c.i.f. N.W. Europe.
Groundnut oil (any origin), c.i.f. Rotterdam.
Palm oil (Malaysia), 5% bulk, c.i.f. N. W. Europe.
Soybean meal (any origin), Argentine 45/46% extraction, c.i.f. Rotterdam beginning 1990; previously US 44%.
Soybean oil (Any origin), crude, f.o.b. ex-mill Netherlands.
Soybeans (US), c.i.f. Rotterdam.
Barley (US) feed, No. 2, spot, 20 days To-Arrive, delivered Minneapolis from May 2012 onwards; during 1980 - 2012 April Canadian, feed, Western No. 1, Winnipeg Commodity Exchange, spot,
wholesale farmers' price.
Maize (US), no. 2, yellow, f.o.b. US Gulf ports.
Rice (Thailand), 5% broken, white rice (WR), milled, indicative price based on weekly surveys of export transactions, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok.
Wheat (US), no. 1, hard red winter, ordinary protein, export price delivered at the US Gulf port for prompt or 30 days shipment.
Bananas (Central & South America), major brands, free on truck (f.o.t.) Southern Europe, including duties; prior to October2006, f.o.t. Hamburg.
Meat, beef (Australia/New Zealand), chucks and cow forequarters, frozen boneless, 85% chemical lean, c.i.f. U.S. port (East Coast), ex-dock, beginning November 2002; previously cow forequarters.
Meat, chicken (US), broiler/fryer, whole birds, 2-1/2 to 3 pounds, USDA grade "A", ice-packed, Georgia Dock preliminary weighted average, wholesale.
Meat, sheep (New Zealand), frozen whole carcasses Prime Medium (PM) wholesale, Smithfield, London beginning January 2006; previously Prime Light (PL).
Oranges (Mediterranean exporters) navel, EEC indicative import price, c.i.f. Paris.
Shrimp , (Mexico), west coast, frozen, white, No. 1, shell-on, headless, 26 to 30 count per pound, wholesale price at New York.
Sugar (world), International Sugar Agreement (ISA) daily price, raw, f.o.b. and stowed at greater Caribbean ports.
Logs (West Africa), sapele, high quality (loyal and marchand), 80 centimeter or more, f.o.b. Douala, Cameroon beginning January 1996; previously of unspecified dimension.
Logs (Malaysia), meranti, Sarawak, sale price charged by importers, Tokyo beginning February 1993; previously average of Sabah and Sarawak weighted by Japanese import volumes.
Sawnwood (Malaysia), dark red seraya/meranti, select and better quality, average 7 to 8 inches; length average 12 to 14 inches; thickness 1 to 2 inch(es); kiln dry, c. & f. UK ports, with 5% agents
commission including premium for products of certified sustainable forest beginning January 2005; previously excluding the premium.
Cotton (Cotton Outlook "Cotlook A index"), middling 1-3/32 inch, traded in Far East, C/F beginning 2006; previously Northern Europe, c.i.f.
Rubber (Asia), RSS3 grade, Singapore Commodity Exchange Ltd (SICOM) nearby contract beginning 2004; during 2000 to 2003, Singapore RSS1; previously Malaysia RSS1.
DAP (diammonium phosphate), standard size, bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf.
Phosphate rock (Morocco), 70% BPL, contract, f.a.s. Casablanca.
Potassium chloride (muriate of potash), standard grade, spot, f.o.b. Vancouver.
TSP (triple superphosphate), bulk, spot, beginning October 2006, Tunisian origin, granular, fob; previously US origin, f.o.b.US Gulf.
Urea, (Black Sea), bulk, spot, f.o.b. Black Sea (primarily Yuzhnyy) beginning July 1991; for 1985-91 (June) f.o.b. Eastern Europe.
Aluminum (LME) London Metal Exchange, unalloyed primary ingots, high grade, minimum 99.7% purity, settlement price beginning2005; previously cash price.
Copper (LME), grade A, minimum 99.9935% purity, cathodes and wire bar shapes, settlement price. Iron ore (any origin) fines, spot price, c.f.r. China, 62% Fe beginning December 2008; previously
63.5%.
Lead (LME), refined, 99.97% purity, settlement price.
Nickel (LME), cathodes, minimum 99.8% purity, settlement price beginning 2005; previously cash price.
Tin (LME), refined, 99.85% purity, settlement price.
Zinc (LME), high grade, minimum 99.95% purity, settlement price beginning April 1990; previously special high grade, minimum 99.995%, cash prices .
Gold (UK), 99.5% fine, London afternoon fixing, average of daily rates.
Platinum (UK), 99.9% refined, London afternoon fixing.
Silver (UK), 99.9% refined, London afternoon fixing; prior to July 1976 Handy & Harman. Grade prior to 1962 unrefined silver.
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