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JCP
PENNEY (J C) CO
OVERALL RATING FOR 4TH QUARTER 2014
BUY
T IO
T
AS
EARN
K
RI S
ST R
STRONG
STRONG
STRONG
STRONG
LEAST RISK
STRONG
STRONG
STRONG
STRONG
LEAST RISK
W Q U ALITY
STRONG
STRONG
WEAK
STRONG
LEAST RISK
STR O NG
OPE
R A TI N G E F FIC I EN
FLO
STRONGEST
STRONG
WEAKEST
STRONG
LEAST RISK
SH
BUY
ONG
HOLD
STR
HOLD
NG
HOLD
Q4 2014
STRO
Q3 2014
EE
Q2 2014
E SH
Q1 2014
B ALANC
EARNINGS QUALITY
CASH FLOW QUALITY
OPERATING EFFICIENCY
BALANCE SHEET
VALUATION
NG
HISTORICAL RATINGS
OVERALL RATING
ING
SQ
LIT
LE
UA
AL
UA
Although none of the dimensions improved during the last quarter the overall rating
improved.
CA
NYSE
CY
$9.10
MARKET CAP.
$2.8 BILLION
PRICE/SALES
0.2
PRICE/EARNINGS
-3.6
PRICE/EARNINGS GROWTH
NA
PRICE/CASH FLOW
-18.3
PRICE/ADJUSTED EARNINGS
-3.3
9.9
-10.2
$12
$12
52 Week High: $11.08 on 09/01/14
$10
$10
$8
$8
$6
$6
$4
$4
200 Million
Apr
2014
May
200 Million
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2015
Feb
Mar
JCP
PENNEY (J C) CO
OVERALL RATING FOR 4TH QUARTER 2014
BUY
101.7%
-59.0
-1,000
-2,000
Fiscal Year
2012
Q3 2014
1274.6%
Fiscal Year
2012
Q4 2014
633.0
Trailing
12 Months
-59.0
-188.0
Fiscal Year
2013
-364.0
-1,388.0
Trailing
12 Months
-1,885.0
Fiscal Year
2013
-771.0
1.0
-231.0
-796.2
-771.0
-771.0
-798.0
-1,500
-1,259.9
-1,000
-1,388.0
-500
58.8%
1,000
125.0
-188.0
$ IN MILLIONS
Reported Operating Cash Flow
-771.0
125.0
Q3 2014
ACCRUALS
Q4 2014
% OF SALES
Actual Accruals
Forcasted Accruals
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
24.6%
30.9%
NA
28.8%
NA
30.0%
NA
31.3%
28.0%
32.0%
34.4%
25.5%
28.7%
23.3%
25.0%
0.0%
23.4%
10.0%
Q4 2014
JCP
PENNEY (J C) CO
OVERALL RATING FOR 4TH QUARTER 2014
BUY
90.7%
Trailing
12 Months
-425.0
Fiscal Year
2013
643.0
-381.0
-127.0
-13.0
693.0
-13.0
-2,000
-2,836.0
Trailing
12 Months
633.0
Fiscal Year
2013
-127.0
Fiscal Year
2012
$ IN MILLIONS
Adjusted Free Cash Flow
-364.0
125.0
-2,000
125.0
-1,000
-1,885.0
-1,814.0
-320.0
239.0
1,000
239.0
583.0
$ IN MILLIONS
Adjusted Operating Cash Flow
-2,765.0
-4,000
Q3 2014
Fiscal Year
2012
Q4 2014
FLOW RATIO
2.00
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
1.50
0.0%
1.00
-20.0%
0.50
0.00
-40.0%
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
DEBT COVERAGE
Adjusted Debt Coverage
20
-20
-40
Q1 13
2015 Jefferson Research & Management
www.jeffersonresearch.com
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Report prepared on April 3, 2015
Page 3 of 11
JCP
PENNEY (J C) CO
OVERALL RATING FOR 4TH QUARTER 2014
BUY
GROSS MARGIN
EBIT MARGIN
Change from previous quarter: DOWN
37.5%
10.0%
35.0%
0.0%
32.5%
-10.0%
30.0%
27.5%
-20.0%
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
NET MARGIN
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
10.0%
45.0%
0.0%
40.0%
-10.0%
35.0%
-20.0%
30.0%
-30.0%
25.0%
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
JCP
PENNEY (J C) CO
OVERALL RATING FOR 4TH QUARTER 2014
BUY
Adjusted ROIC
0.0%
200.0%
-10.0%
100.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
-30.0%
-100.0%
-40.0%
-200.0%
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
ASSET TURNOVER
EQUITY TURNOVER
1.20
4.00
1.15
3.75
1.10
3.50
1.05
3.25
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
1.00
3.00
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
IN DAYS
JCP
PENNEY (J C) CO
OVERALL RATING FOR 4TH QUARTER 2014
BUY
140
120
100
Q1 13
CURRENT RATIO
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
QUICK RATIO
Change from previous quarter: UP
2.00
0.60
1.75
0.50
1.50
0.40
1.25
0.30
1.00
0.20
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
JCP
PENNEY (J C) CO
OVERALL RATING FOR 4TH QUARTER 2014
BUY
DEBT/ASSETS
Debt/Tangible Equity
Debt/Tangible Assets
400
55
50
300
45
200
40
100
35
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
CASH
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
$ IN MILLIONS
Change from previous quarter: UP
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
JCP
PENNEY (J C) CO
OVERALL RATING FOR 4TH QUARTER 2014
BUY
PRICE/EARNINGS
RANGE
As Reported
LOW
HIGH
AVERAGE
Reported Price/Earnings
-3.60
-3.60
-3.60
Adjusted Price/Earnings
-3.30
-1.80
-2.57
10
Sector Price/Earnings
15.60
21.80
18.26
Adjusted
21.8
-3.3
-3.6
0.0
-3.2
NA
0.0
-3.3
NA
0.1
-2.1
20
NA
LAST 2 YEARS
-10
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
PRICE/CASH FLOW
9.60
13.00
10.68
13.0
0.43
-10.2
40.00
-18.3
-13.70
12.1
25
40.0
-12.96
-25
-58.1
-2.30
10.8
-58.10
Adjusted
-9.7
AVERAGE
9.9
HIGH
-3.5
As Reported
LOW
-3.6
RANGE
LAST 2 YEARS
-50
-75
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
PRICE/EARNINGS GROWTH
As Reported
0.00
0.20
0.08
7.50
5.00
2.50
0.00
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
0.2
2.48
9.9
9.90
NA
0.00
0.0
10.00
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.0
NA
NA
Adjusted
NA
AVERAGE
0.1
HIGH
NA
LOW
NA
RANGE
LAST 2 YEARS
Q4 2014
PRICE/SALES
As Reported
Reported Price/Sales
0.20
0.30
0.28
Sector Price/Sales
0.80
1.00
0.84
1.00
0.75
0.50
Q1 2014
0.8
0.3
0.8
0.00
0.3
0.25
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
1.0
AVERAGE
0.2
HIGH
0.9
LOW
0.2
RANGE
LAST 2 YEARS
Q4 2014
JCP
PENNEY (J C) CO
OVERALL RATING FOR 4TH QUARTER 2014
BUY
TICKER
COMPANY
DDS
DILLARDS INC -CL A
SHLD
SEARS HOLDINGS CORP
BURL
BURLINGTON STORES INC
JCP
PENNEY (J C) CO
BIG
BIG LOTS INC
TUES
TUESDAY MORNING CORP
FRED
FREDS INC
MULTILINE RETAIL SECTOR
MARKET CAP.
PRICE ON
PRICE/
04/02/15 EARNINGS
PRICE/
SALES
PRICE/
CASH
FLOW
9.7
-4.0
19.1
-18.3
10.4
50.3
29.8
13.0
$5.1 B
$4.4 B
$4.4 B
$2.8 B
$2.6 B
$757.2 M
$667.1 M
$11.1 B
$137.90
$41.30
$58.20
$9.10
$47.80
$17.30
$18.10
17.7
-2.6
65.3
-3.6
24.5
575.7
-39.3
21.8
0.8
0.1
0.9
0.2
0.5
0.8
0.4
1.0
MARKET CAP.
GROSS
MARGIN
(%)
EBIT
MARGIN
(%)
NET
MARGIN
(%)
$5.1 B
$4.4 B
$4.4 B
$2.8 B
$2.6 B
$757.2 M
$667.1 M
33.8
24.4
42.6
33.8
38.9
37.2
25.9
9.3
-2.3
11.1
3.2
-0.4
8.0
-3.2
6.0
-2.0
6.3
-1.5
-0.3
7.8
-2.2
PRICE/
EARNINGS
GROWTH
VALUATION
RATING
1.4
LEAST RISK
-0.1 LEAST RISK
0.5
LOW RISK
NA LEAST RISK
NA LEAST RISK
NA MEDIUM RISK
NA
LOW RISK
0.2
TICKER
COMPANY
DDS
SHLD
BURL
JCP
BIG
TUES
FRED
CASH
CONVERSION
ROIC (%) CYCLE (DAYS)
11.8
-46.4
5.4
-9.9
13.0
0.8
-3.7
OPERATING
EFFICIENCY
RATING
31.0
LOW RISK
50.0 MEDIUM RISK
NA
LOW RISK
0.0
LOW RISK
0.0 MEDIUM RISK
0.0
LOW RISK
48.0
MOST RISK
JCP
PENNEY (J C) CO
OVERALL RATING FOR 4TH QUARTER 2014
BUY
DEFINITIONS
Adjusted Net Income: Adjusted Net Income is a companys
reported net income less adjustments for one-time and
non-operating items yielding a more realistic picture of a
companys ongoing earnings.
JCP
PENNEY (J C) CO
OVERALL RATING FOR 4TH QUARTER 2014
BUY
DISCLAIMER
This report is for information purposes only for clients of Jefferson Research & Management and in no way should be interpreted as a
complete investment recommendation. This report has been prepared exclusively by Jefferson Research & Management.
Information contained in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made to its accuracy and no
representation is made that it is complete, or that errors, if discovered, will be corrected.
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(once identified) and for a one day period subsequent to rating changes but do not individually or collectively own more than 1
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