Professional Documents
Culture Documents
OUTLINE
1.
2.
3.
4.
DISCLAIMER: This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
acquire securities of the Republic in any jurisdiction or as an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its
distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This presentation is not
and should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, investment or other product advice.
2
Government Securities
Management and
Financing Strategy
portfolio management;
3. Issues Retail Bond for instrument diversification and financial inclusion;
4. Optimizes foreign and domestic loan instrument to fulfill Budget need on capital expenditure;
5. Conducts active portfolio management of Government securities through, among others, debt buyback
information, rapid and effective responses, and effective communication with investors and other stakeholders.
300
2.5
2.3
2.2
250
2.0
1.9
1.9
200
1.6
1.5
150
1.3
100
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.7
50
0.5
0.5
0
0.1
-50
-100
Govt Securities - net
Domestic Loan
External Loan - net
Others/Non-Debt - net
Budget Defisit, % to GDP
2004
6.9
(28.1)
42.0
1.1
2005
22.6
(10.3)
(1.2)
0.5
2006
36.0
(26.6)
20.0
0.9
2007
57.2
(26.6)
9.1
1.3
2008
85.9
(18.4)
16.6
0.1
2009
99.5
(12.4)
25.5
1.6
2010
91.1
0.4
(4.6)
4.6
0.7
2011
119.9
0.6
(17.8)
28.3
1.1
2012
159.7
0.8
(23.5)
38.1
1.9
2013
224.7
0.4
(5.8)
18.1
2.3
2014*
265.0
0.5
(15.4)
(12.2)
2.2
2015**
297.7
1.7
(20.0)
(65.5)
1.9
(0.5)
Notes:
* Preliminary 2014
** Revised Budget 2015
5
2015
Description
Budget
% to
GDP
Revised
Budget
1,793,588.9
16.1
1,761,642.8
15.1
B. Total Expenditure
Interest Payment
2,039,483.6
151,968.3
18.3
1.4
1,984,149.7
155,730.9
17.0
1.3
D. Deficit
E. Financing
I. Non Debt
II. Debt
1. Government Securities (Net)
2. Loan (Net)
i. Foreign Loan (Net)
Disbursement
- Program Loan
- Project Loan
On Lending
Foreign Loan Principal Payment
ii. Domestic Loan (Net)
Disbursement
Domestic Loan Principal Payment
Assumptions :
GDP (trillion IDR) (Y.o.Y)
Growth (%)
Inflation (%) y-o-y
3-month-SPN (%)
IDR/USD (average)
(93,926.4)
(0.8)
(66,776.0)
(0.6)
(245,894.7)
(2.2)
(222,506.9)
(1.9)
245,894.7
(8,961.2)
2.2
(0.1)
222,506.9
(56,874.0)
1.9
(0.5)
254,855.9
277,049.8
(22,193.9)
(23,815.1)
47,037.1
7,140.0
39,897.1
(4,319.4)
(66,532.8)
1,621.2
2.3
2.5
(0.2)
(0.2)
0.4
0.1
0.4
(0.0)
(0.6)
0.0
279,380.9
297,698.4
(18,317.5)
(20,008.1)
48,647.0
7,500.0
41,147.0
(4,471.9)
(64,183.2)
1,690.6
2.4
2.5
(0.2)
(0.2)
0.4
0.1
0.4
(0.0)
(0.5)
0.0
2,000.0
(378.8)
11,146,943.0
5.8
4.4
6.0
11,900
0.0
(0.0)
2,000.0
(309.4)
11,700,808.0
5.7
5.0
6.2
12,500
Financing
sources
Revised
Budget 2015 come from debt
financing
(85.78%
from
Government Securities, 9.62%
from Loan) and the rest 4.61%
from non debt financing.
% to
GDP
A. Total Revenue
C. Primary Balance
0.0
(0.0)
Indicative Target
Instruments
Budget
Revised
Budget
277.0
297.7
Redemption
135.6
136.1
15.0
15.0
3.0
3.0
430.7
451.8
Domestic
80.0%
77.4%
Retail
9.3%
8.9%
70.7%
68.5%
20.0%
22.6%
Cash Management
Buyback
Govt Securities (gross)
Auctions
International Bond
Domestic:
Auction:
conventional securities: 23 x
Islamic securities: 22 x
Non-Auction:
International Bonds:
FR 69 5 Y
FR 70 10 Y
FR 71 15 Y
FR 68 20 Y
277.049.800
153.612.324
3.000.000
430.662.124
Revised Budget
2015*
297.698.382
154.112.324
3.000.000
451.810.706
Realization
% Realization to
Revised Budget
2015)*
2015
160.247.753
31.199.282
191.447.035
53,83%
20,24%
0,00%
42,37%
146.082.000
95.710.000
68.960.000
23.750.000
3.000.000
50.372.000
50.372.000
-
45.365.035
45.365.035
20.700.000
21.965.035
2.700.000
-
Government Securities
Performance
Incoming Bids
Awarded Bids
100,000
60%
50%
40%
30%
40,000
20%
20,000
10%
0%
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sept-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Average Foreign incoming bids 2015 is Rp7,85T, compare to period in 2014, which reached 7,58T
Average incoming bids 2015 = Rp27,41T, increased from average incoming bids 2014 = Rp22,65T
Average awarded bid 2015 = Rp11,59T while average awarded bid 2014 = Rp10,97 T.
*as of April 14, 2015
Mar-15 14-Apr-15
10
10
Incoming Bids
Awarded Bids
60%
120,000
100,000
50%
40%
80,000
Avr. Foreign
Incoming Bid 2014:
4,42T
30%
60,000
20%
40,000
10%
20,000
0%
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
14-Apr-15
11
11
(IDR Trilion)
22,00
Global Financial
Crisis
20,00
25,00
5Y
18,00
10Y
15Y
20,00
7,45
20Y
15,00
14,00
4,84
Triliun
16,00
12,00
1,14
6,70
0,77
3,45
0,34
8,00
5,00
6,00
3,55
4,00
0,27
0,41
0,30
0,15
2,98
1,54
0,16
0,38
5,88
5,73
0,22
4,39
7,65
0,81
10,00
10,00
0,76
0,41
10,91
11,11
7,91
0,57
9,18
6,33
5,31
Apr'15
Okt'14
Jan'15
Jul'14
Apr'14
Okt'13
Jan'14
Apr'13
Jul'13
Okt'12
Jan'13
Apr'12
Jul'12
Okt'11
Jan'12
Jul'11
Apr'11
Jan'11
Okt'10
Apr'10
Jul'10
Okt'09
Jan'10
Apr'09
Jul'09
Jan'09
Okt'08
Apr'08
Jul'08
2,00
7,19
8,80
70
15.00
14.12
Spread (bid-ask)
12.88
60
12.00
50
40
10.75
10.53
2013
2014
9.00
7.04
30
6.00
5.15
5.12
20
10
3.00
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
12
Latest Yield
MTD
Change
(BP)
22.0
20.0
HK
1.496
-42.7
-0.6
ID
7.252
-54.4
-18.7
JP
0.343
+1.4
-6.2
KR
2.107
-49.8
-5.0
12.0
MY
3.878
-26.9
-1.6
10.0
PH
4.193
+33.0
+2.6
8.0
SG
2.053
-22.7
-22.1
6.0
18.0
16.0
TH
2.663
-6.6
-1.8
4.0
US
1.927
-24.4
+0.4
2.0
VN
6.588
-64.2
+8.3
Tenor
1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
10Y
15Y
20Y
30Y
14.0
14-Apr-15
6.43
6.90
7.08
7.19
7.23
7.23
7.24
7.37
7.61
7.65
7.94
7-Apr-15
6.49
6.83
7.10
7.15
7.21
7.25
7.26
7.38
7.60
7.66
7.96
13-Mar-15
6.52
6.87
7.11
7.17
7.29
7.31
7.35
7.51
7.73
7.76
8.13
14 Apr '15
7 Apr '15
13 Mar '15
9 Feb '12
23 Sep '11
27 Oct '08
13 Sep'05
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y
15Y
20Y
30Y
`
Banks
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
14-Apr-15
335,43
33,70%
375,55
31,04%
372,66
29,95%
373,22
29,43%
349,26
26,75%
360,70
27,47%
44,44
4,47%
41,63
3,44%
38,37
3,08%
53,03
4,18%
85,40
6,54%
80,87
6,16%
615,38
42,50
61,83%
4,27%
792,78
45,79
65,52%
3,78%
833,42
47,16
66,97%
3,79%
841,85
47,23
66,39%
3,72%
870,83
50,19
66,71%
3,84%
871,57
52,14
66,37%
3,97%
Insurance Company
129,55
13,02%
150,60
12,45%
149,95
12,05%
150,21
11,84%
155,54
11,91%
157,42
11,99%
Foreign Holders
323,83
32,54%
461,35
38,13%
500,83
40,25%
507,67
40,03%
504,08
38,61%
506,78
38,59%
78,39
7,88%
103,42
8,55%
104,66
8,41%
106,17
8,37%
101,41
7,77%
102,10
7,78%
Pension Fund
39,47
3,97%
43,30
3,58%
43,00
3,46%
43,77
3,45%
44,73
3,43%
44,42
3,38%
0,88
0,09%
0,81
0,07%
0,65
0,05%
0,66
0,05%
0,63
0,05%
1,15
0,09%
Individual
32,48
3,26%
30,41
2,51%
28,35
2,28%
26,39
2,08%
47,63
3,65%
40,96
3,12%
Others
46,68
4,69%
60,51
5,00%
63,49
5,10%
65,93
5,20%
68,03
5,21%
68,70
5,23%
100% 1.313,14
100%
Securities Company
Total
995,25
100% 1.209,96
100% 1.244,45
100% 1.268,11
100% 1.305,49
In the end of January 2015, foreign investor ownership record the highest percentage of ownership, showing their
increasing appetite on the Indonesias government securities.
14
Domestic
Foreign
Total
2012
49,0
47,7
96,7
2013
121,7
53,3
175,0
2014
77,2
137,5
214,7
2015
57,5
45,6
103,2
Note: *) as of April 10
Foreign Net Buy/Sell up to March (YTD) & yearly total (IDR trillion)
42,7
45,6
2015
21,3
2014
137,5
11,1
2013
53,3
Maret
YTD
4,1
2012
47,7
4,6
2011
27,1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
15
100%
45%
40,03%
90%
39,41%
37,30%
80%
70%
60%
37,80%
40,25%
38,61%
38,13%
40%
38,59%
35,66%
32,98%
72,84%
32,54%
78,29%
74,51%
1,20
39,48
40,00
1,00
35%
33,64%
30,00
30%
76,50%
Capital Inflows
50,00
75,95%
76,16%
75,25%
76,39%
76,70%
78,21%
78,81%
23,98
19,52
20,00
79,38%
13,11
25% 10,00
50%
20%
0,00
(1,49)
15%
30%
(4,99)
(10,00)
(20,00)
18,29%
10%
7,84%
0%
>5
5,20%
16,15%
5,55%
>1-5
18,43%
7,06%
18,89%
5,16%
0-1
18,90%
4,94%
19,36%
5,39%
18,96%
4,65%
18,13%
5,16%
16,79%
4,99%
15,81%
5,38%
15,68%
4,94%
5%
0%
(0,08) (1,41)
(4,37)
4,22 2,81
(0,88)
(1,76)
0,80
6,84
2,70
(19,98)
0,60
(0,37)
(3,59)
(19,84)
0,40
0,20
(29,29)
(40,00)
0,00
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
19,32%
(2,27)
8,44
2,68
0,68
20,15
21,34
15,77
15,95
16,10
16,49
14,67 13,17
12,49
10,13
6,43
6,08 4,82
(8,99)
10%
(30,00)
7,839,35
4,15
1,69
40%
20%
10,13
8,06
17,97
States Budget
Gov't Securities
Loan
Gov't
Securities
25.2%
Loan
2041-2060
2040
2039
2038
2037
2036
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
74.8%
Foreign
Domestic
Foreign
44.1%
2041-2060
2040
2039
2038
2037
2036
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
55.9%
Domestik
20
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*)
Feb-15
Nominal
68.6
68.4
63.6
58.1
53.9
53.4
25.0%
Bilateral
42.3
42.1
37.2
31.2
26.7
26.5
12.4%
Multilateral
23.2
23.5
23.8
23.6
23.5
23.3
10.9%
Commercial
3.0
2.8
2.5
3.2
3.7
3.6
1.7%
Suppliers
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.1
0.19
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.1%
118.4
131.0
140.8
136.3
155.2
159.7
74.8%
18.0
21.6
27.4
32.8
36.7
40.6
19.0%
100.4
109.4
113.4
103.5
118.5
119.0
55.8%
187.0
199.5
204.5
194.6
209.4
213.4
1,681.7
1,808.9
1,977.7
2,371.4
2,604.9
2,744.4
8,991.0
9,068.0
9,670.0
12,189.0
12,440.0
12,863.0
Note:
*) Preliminary Figures
21
902.6
902.4
0.2
39.6
16.9
22.8
2,689.8
95.0
2,594.8
5.4
5.4
100.4
39.8
33.1
7.2
6.5
187.0
902.8
357.6
297.6
65.0
58.6
1,681.7
46.3%
8,991
2011
2012
993.0
1,098.0
992.0
1,096.2
1.0
1.8
43.9
49.8
20.4
25.6
23.5
24.2
2,589.8
2,498.8
95.0
155.0
2,494.8
2,343.8
5.0
4.5
5.0
4.5
----------------Multiple
109.5
43.9
33.4
6.4
6.3
199.5
993.0
397.9
302.5
58.5
57.1
1,808.9
45.1%
9,068
113.5
49.8
29.1
6.0
6.1
204.5
1,098.0
481.9
281.2
57.5
59.1
1,977.7
44.5%
9,670
2013
2014*)
1,263.9
1,261.7
2.2
56.8
31.3
25.4
2,395.3
155.0
2,228.8
4.2
4.2
Currencies
1,477.5
1,534.5
1,474.6
1,531.2
2.9
3.3
61.0
64.9
34.2
38.2
26.8
26.7
2,204.0
2,204.0
155.0
155.0
2,049.0
2,056.9
5.1
5.2
1.0
1.0
4.1
4.2
-----------------------
103.7
56.8
22.8
5.8
5.8
194.9
1,263.9
692.0
278.3
71.1
70.2
2,375.5
46.8%
12,189.0
118.8
61.0
18.5
6.2
5.0
209.4
1,477.5
758.3
229.8
76.9
62.4
2,604.9
43.3%
12,440.0
Feb-15
123.4
67.1
19.2
6.0
5.0
220.6
55.9%
30.4%
8.7%
2.7%
2.3%
1,534.5
834.2
238.5
74.2
62.8
2,744.4
44.1%
12,863.0
*) Preliminary Figures
22
5%
0%
2010
2010
2011
2012
Interest to Revenue
7,6%
10%
6,8%
2014*
15%
7,9%
2013
20%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
6,7%
2012
24,7%
7,2%
2011
24,9%
7,7%
23,0%
8,5%
23,1%
8,9%
24,5%
2013
2014*
Interest to Expenditure
14%
2,00%
2011
2012
2013
2014*
2010
2011
to Tax Revenue
2012
2013
11,2%
11,7%
9,9%
9,9%
4%
2%
0%
10,8%
6%
2,50%
2010
12,7%
8%
2,9%
12,2%
2,9%
3,00%
10%
10,6%
3,2%
3,1%
12%
10,7%
3,4%
3,50%
10,5%
25%
7,5%
30%
8,7%
2014*
Risk Indicators
Interest Rate Risk
28,2
22,0
26,1
25,9
23,2
22,5
20,3
18,8
16,2
16,0
2010
2011
2012
2013
12,1
11,0
10,7
2012
2013
2014*
FX Debt to total debt ratio (%)
9,8
20,3
9,3
7,6
2012
2013
2014*
20,8
22,7
8,2
7,1
2009
34,6
34,2
33,2
9,6
2011
43,3
9,7
2010
12,2
10,6
2009
2010
2011
FX Debt to GDP ratio (%)
2014*
9,5
2009
46,7
44,4
14,8
45,1
21,0
13,4
2009
46,2
2010
21,5
2011
21,8
8,6
7,2
2012
33,9
33,4
32,4
20,2
7,7
2013
2014*
*Preliminary Figures
24
RI0145
RI0125
RI0125
Indonesia
13%
Republic of Indonesia
USD2 billion
Maturity
Coupon
4.200% / 99.393%
5.200% / 98.867%
Format
USA
48%
USA
53%
SGX-ST
SGX-ST
USD10.05 billion
USD9.23 billion
Europe
23%
Europe
24%
RI0145
Private Banks
2%
Insurance /
Pension Funds
13%
SWF
2%
SWF
2%
Banks
8%
Banks
14%
Listing
Asia
20%
Indonesia
4%
Asia
15%
Issue
Size
RI0145
RI0145
Fund / Asset
Managers
73%
Fund / Asset
Managers
75%
25
END OF PRESENTATION
Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management
Ministry of Finance of Republic of Indonesia
Directorate of Government Debt Securities
Frans Seda building, 4th floor,
Jl. Wahidin Raya No. 1, Jakarta Pusat Postal Code: 10710
Phone: +6221 3810175
Fax. : +6221 3846516
Website: www.djpu.kemenkeu.go.id
264,983,700
163,151,013
1,350,968
428,134,713
% Realization to
Realization
(ao Dec 31, 2014)*
264,978,114
163,151,013
1,350,968
428,129,127
352,588,379
Domestic GDS
-Coupon GDS (Auction, Private Placement)
-Conventional T-Bills (Auction, Private Placement)
-SPNNT 20140303
-Retail Bonds
International Bonds
-USD Global Bonds
-USD Domestic Bonds
-Euro Denominated Bonds
284,376,795
199,870,000
48,500,000
12,400,000
23,606,795
68,211,584
48,466,366
3,985,450
15,759,767
-Samurai Bonds
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
5,586
75,540,748
57,794,345
38,471,000
19,323,345
17,746,403
Pension Fund
180
150
Rp169.53
27.91%
120
Rp156.45
27.43%
Rp108.39
Rp141.51
21.90%
Rp164.15 Rp167.23
600
30.00%
Rp545.54
27.09%
24.11%
24.01%
500
Rp136.53
20.00%
19.68%
18.36%
Rp90.11
19.46%
19.74%
400
30.00%
Rp497.03 Rp497.99
21.77%
22.64%
Rp567.13
21.02%
20.00%
Rp356.45 Rp361.37
Rp326.23
18.33%
300
90
12.95%
Rp241.67
60
13.98%
200
10.00%
10.00%
100
30
0
0.00%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Mar-14
0.00%
2008
Jun-14
Bond
Stock
Others
2009
2010
Govt. Securities (GS)
Deposit
Mutual Funds
2011
2012
2013
Bond
Stock
Others
Mar-14
Jun-14
Mutual Fund
270
60%
244.32
240
50%
210
45%
180
180.28
37%
33%
150
40%
159
28%
120
110.13
30%
25%
142.97
20%
90
20%
71.48
60
10%
30
0%
Deposit
Bond
Stock
Others
% SBN (RHS)
29
3.65%
60
50
3.28%
2.51%
2.50%
2.28%
40
2.08%
50,000
47,434
45,000
Percent
3.50%
3.00%
40,000
35,000
1.50%
23,617
30
25,000
20
20,000 16,561
10
0.50%
0.00%
0
December 2013
Dec, 2014
Jan, 2015
Feb, 2015
23,127
14,295 17,231 15,487
15,239 15,198
15,000
1.00%
34,692
32,638
29,706
30,000
2.00%
34,776
33,546
17,606
17,783
10,000
6,412
5,000
-
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
30