ASTAPepperCropReport

AlanMilroy
JupiterCommodities,Inc.

VietnamCrop
February April2012
DongNai
11,000/13,000mt
BinhPhuoc
28,000/30,000mt
GiaLai
29,000/32,000mt
DakNong
15,000/17,000mt
Dak Lak
15,000/17,000mt
Others
22,000/24,000mt
===============================
Total
120,000/133,000mt

IndianCrop
February May2012
Karnatakaregion
Chickmanglore
Hassan/Saleshupur/Coorg

10,000/12,000mt
8,000/9,000mt

Keralaregion
Idukki
10,000/11,000mt
Wynad
7,000/8,000mt
Others(Kotiayam/Calicutetc)9,000/10,000mt
======================================

Total

44,000/50,000mt

BrazilCrop
August November2012

Para(NorthBrazil)
29,000/31,000mt
EspirtoSantos (SouthBrazil)
6,000/7000mt
=======================================
Total
35,000/38,000mt

IndonesiaCrop
Jan March 2012
4,500mt
July September2012
22,000/26,000mt
=========================================
Total
26,500/30,500mt
Note:Jan MarchcroppredominatelyLightberries

Sarawak(Malaysia)Crop
April June2012

Sarawak 10,000/12,000mt

Note:Includesabout40%whitepepperand60%blackpepper.

OtherAreaCrop
2012
SriLanka
9,000/11,000mtblackpeppermostlyfordistillation
Madagascar
1,500mtblackpepperFAQgrades
Cambodia
4,000mtblackpeppermostlyFAQgrades
China
21,000/22,000mt Mostlywhitepepper
Misc.
4,000/5,000mt
==========================
Total
39,500/43,000mt

 BlackPepperProduction2012

Vietnam
120/133,000mt
India
45/50,000mt
Brazil
35/38,000mt
Indonesia
26.5/30,500mt
Sarawak
10/12,000mt
Others
39.5/43,000mt
============================
SubTotal276,000/306,000mt

Vietnam
5,000mt
India
15,000mt
Brazil
13,000mt
Indonesia
6,000mt
Sarawak
7,000mt
Others
4,000mt
===========================
SubTotal
50,000mt

Adjustmentsforwhiteproduction()

Adjustmentsforwhiteproduction()

Vietnam
25,000mt
Brazil
3,500mt
Sarawak
4,500mt
Others
26,000mt
============================
Subtotal
59,000mt

Vietnam
1,000mt
Brazil
500mt
Sarawak
2,000mt
Others
2,000mt
============================
Subtotal
5,500mt

Totals217,000/247,000mt

Totals44,500mt

CarryoverasofJanuary1,2012

Totalavailableblackpepper2012:261,000mtupto291,500mt

 WhitePepperProduction2012

Indonesia
16,000mt
Vietnam
25,000mt
Brazil
3,500mt
Sarawak
4,500mt
Others
26,000mt
============================
SubTotal75,000mt

Indonesia
10,000mt
Vietnam
1,000mt
Brazil
500mt
Sarawak
2,000mt
Others
2,000mt
===========================
SubTotal 15,500mt

CarryoverasofJanuary1,2012

Totalavailablewhitepepper2012:90,500mt

Totalblackpepperproduction2012
217,000mt/247,000mt
Totalblackpeppercarryover01/01/201244,500mt
========================================================
Totalblackpepperavailable2012261,500/291,500mt
Totalwhitepepperproduction2012
75,000mt
Totalwhitepeppercarryover01/01/2012
15,500mt
========================================================
Totalwhitepepperavailable201290,500mt
Totalblack&whitepepperavailable2012352,000/382,000mt

ExportsBlack&WhitePepper,January March2012

Vietnam30,900mt
India6,000mt
Indonesia7,000mt
Brazil6,500mt
Misc.5,000mt

Total=55,400mt

ConsumptionofBlackandWhitePepper
Consuming/NonProducingAreas 187,000/205,000mt
NorthAmerica70,000/75,000mt
Europe70,000/75,000mt
Asia/PacificRim25,000/28,000mt
MiddleEast12,000/15,000mt
Africa10,000/12,000mt

SubTotal:187,000/205,000mt

ProducingCountries/Domestic 127,000/136,000mt
Brazil&South/CentralAmerica
7,000/9,000mt
Asia(Viet/Indo/India/China/Etc)
120,000/125,000mt

SubTotal:127,000/136,000mt

TotalWorldConsumption:314,000/341,000mt

TotalofBothBlackandWhitePepperfor2012
Totalworldproduction
292,000mt/322,000mt
Totalworldconsumption
314,000mt/341,000mt
========================================================
Difference2012prod.vs.consumption ()22,000/19,000mt DEFICIT
Addedcarryover (+)60,000/60,000mt
========================================================
TotalAvailable/Consumption38,000/41,000mt EXCESS

Consumption

Ingeneralworldconsumptionhasincreasedby3%perannum.

ThemaingrowthhoweverhasbeeninIndiaandAsiaPacificareas.

TheConsumptionofpepperisgrowingnotsomuchwithincreased
populationbutmajorchangesininternationaleatinghabits.

Consumptionisalsogrowingwiththeinternationalincreaseofmiddle
classindevelopingcountries.

Iftheworldfinancialandpoliticalmarketsremainreasonablystablewe
canexpectacontinuedgrowthinconsumptiononaglobalscale.

Pepperdemandshouldbeconsideredbasicallyinelasticbasedon
continuedhigherconsumptionduringthisperiodofhighprices.

Production

Generallyspeakingweshouldexpectproductiontofallinthepresent
producingcountries
LandpricesinnonCommunistproducingcountriesisincreasingrapidly
duetoincreasedpopulations
Laborcostsareincreasingthroughoutproducingareas
Productioncosts fertilizer irrigation watercostsincreasingaswell
energyprices
Waterandirrigationbecomingmoreandmoreanissueasresidential
areascompetewithfarmers
Pepperhascompetingcropssucharerubber,coffee,cocoa,freshfruits,
palmoil,etc.
Withpotentialglobalwarmingwecanexpectmoreextremeweather
patterns
NewareasshalldevelopsuchasCambodia Laos andperhapsAfrica
inareasalongtheequatorialband

Conclusion
Worldpepperproductionversusworldconsumptionisaboutevenwithin
themarginoferrorofabout20,000mt.
Carryoverstocksinproducingcountrieshasfallenbyatleast50%overlast
4yearsandcanassumewillnotberebuiltatthesehighpricelevels.
ExpectedcontinuedgrowthinworldpopulationsespeciallyAsiaandPacific
rimcountries.
Continuedglobal"fusion"ofeatingculturesandincreaseinconsumption
ofprocessed/readymadefoods .
Variableseffectingconclusion:
Economy exchangerates overallincreaseinvirtuallyall
commodityprices geopoliticalunrestinvariouspartsofthe
world.

Thankyou

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