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TINS 3 Sep 2009
TINS 3 Sep 2009
3 September 2009
Timah
HOLD
(from BUY)
Price: IDR1,980
TP: IDR2,200 (From IDR3,000)
JCI: 2,286
Achmad Syafriel
E-mail: achmad.syafriel@bahana.co.id
Phone: +6221 250 5081 ext. 3601
:
:
:
:
:
1,980
5,033
9,965/985
116.1/11.5
TINS IJ
Shareholders information
Government of Indonesia (%)
Free float (%)
:
:
65.0
35.0
(IDR)
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
9/2/2008
10/24/2008
12/15/2008
2/5/2009
3/29/2009
5/20/2009
7/11/2009
500
9/1/2009
TINS IJ Px Last
Source : Bloomberg
(%)
10.0
10.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
(5.0)
(5.0)
(10.0)
(10.0)
(15.0)
(15.0)
(20.0)
(20.0)
(25.0)
(25.0)
(30.0)
9/2/2008
10/24/2008
12/15/2008
JCI (LHS)
2/5/2009
3/29/2009
5/20/2009
7/11/2009
(30.0)
9/1/2009
Source : Bloomberg
Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor
in making their investment decision.
Please see the important disclaimer information on the back of this report
BALANCE SHEET
2008
9,053
6,334
2,719
648
2,070
(40)
42
55
(18)
2,109
(767)
1,342
0
1,342
2009F
7,434
6,182
1,251
456
795
(44)
61
(63)
(15)
735
(206)
529
0
529
2010F
10,201
8,018
2,184
467
1,716
(43)
71
0
(20)
1,724
(483)
1,241
0
1,241
2011F
11,507
8,820
2,687
475
2,213
(43)
93
0
(23)
2,240
(627)
1,613
0
1,613
KEY RATIOS
Year to 31 Dec
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
Gross margin (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
Operating margin (%)
Pretax margin (%)
Net margin (%)
Current ratio (x)
Quick ratio (x)
Dividend payout (%)
Net debt/equity (x)
Inter. coverage (x)
Debt / EBITDA (x)
2008
461
447
3,173
224
4,306
880
600
5,785
366
692
85
498
1,641
42
282
0
3,821
5,785
2009F
1,371
282
2,206
235
4,094
1,412
629
6,135
366
820
70
409
1,665
34
277
0
4,159
6,135
As at 31 Dec (IDRb)
2008
Net profit
1,342
Depr. & amortization
170
Chg in working capital
(1,815)
Other-net
52
Operating cash flow
(250)
Capital expenditures
(576)
Free cash flow
(826)
Acq. & Investments
0
Other - net
70
Dividends
(905)
Total uses of free cash
(835)
S-term debt issued
366
Long term debt issued
21
Change in cash
(1,274)
1,735
Beginning cash balance
Ending cash balance
461
2009F
529
118
1,261
(100)
1,808
(650)
1,158
0
(35)
(212)
(247)
0
(23)
888
483
1,371
2010F
1,515
414
2,977
247
5,152
1,494
661
7,307
366
1,053
96
561
2,077
47
279
0
4,904
7,307
2011F
2,285
451
3,210
259
6,205
1,576
694
8,475
366
1,164
109
633
2,272
53
278
0
5,872
8,475
CASHFLOW
2008
23.2
35.1
30.0
23.0
22.9
23.3
14.8
262.4
69.0
40.0
0.8
51.4
0.2
2009F
8.6
12.7
16.8
10.8
10.7
9.9
7.1
245.9
113.4
40.0
nc
18.3
0.6
2010F
17.0
25.3
21.4
16.9
16.8
16.9
12.2
248.1
104.7
40.0
nc
40.3
0.3
2011F
19.0
27.5
23.4
19.3
19.2
19.5
14.0
273.2
131.8
40.0
nc
51.8
0.2
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Year to 31 Dec
Prices
Tin price (USD/ton)
Coal price (USD/ton)
Sales volume
Tin (tons)
Coal ('000 tons)
As at 31 Dec (IDRb)
Cash & equivalents
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Other current assets
Total current assets
PP&E - net
Other assets
Total assets
Short term borrowings
Accounts payable
Current maturities
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Long-term maturities
Others
Minority interest
Shareholders equity
Total liabilities & equity
2008
2010F
1,241
118
(670)
141
830
(200)
630
0
(29)
(497)
(525)
0
39
144
1,371
1,515
2011F
1,613
118
(159)
60
1,631
(200)
1,431
0
(34)
(645)
(679)
0
18
770
1,515
2,285
INTERIM
2009F
2010F
2011F
18,692
41
13,500
50
18,000
55
19,500
60
46,438
1,789
45,000
1,800
48,000
1,800
50,000
1,800
3,000
50%
Revenue (IDRb)
Operating profit (IDRb)
Operating margin (RHS)
2,500
40%
2,000
30%
1,500
20%
1,000
CAPITAL HISTORY
Oct-95
Aug-08
Type of action
IPO at IDR2,900 per share
Stock split
Term
10 for 1
Adj. factor
10
10%
500
0%
0
1Q07
-500
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
-10%
20,000
USD/to
Margin/ton
Average tin price/ton
Delivered cost/ton
15,000
10,000
5,000
7,831
5,212
3,759
8,739
6,415
4,905
4,517
0
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
-9
176
4Q08
1Q09
930
2Q09
-5,000
1Q08
11,523
10,176
2Q08
11,469
10,778
3Q08
15,114
13,091
4Q08
10,923
12,393
1Q09
10,462
11,014
2Q09
8,917
13,096
1Q09
51.5%
48.5%
2Q09
29.6%
70.4%
Source: Company
1Q08
70.8%
29.2%
2Q08
74.3%
25.7%
3Q08
70.4%
29.6%
4Q08
64.4%
35.6%
Source: Company
Old
2009 2010 2011 2009
8,667 10,687 12,055 7,434
-4.3
23.3
12.8 -17.9
2,429 2,989 3,596 1,251
28.0
28.0
29.8 16.8
1,973 2,522 3,121
795
22.8
23.6
25.9 10.7
1,434 1,848 2,309
529
16.5
17.3
19.2
7.1
New
2010
2011
10,201 11,507
37.2
12.8
2,184
2,687
21.4
23.4
1,716
2,213
16.8
19.2
1,241
1,613
12.2
14.0
% changes
2009 2010 2011
-14.2
-4.5
-4.5
-48.5
-26.9
-25.3
-59.7
-31.9
-29.1
-63.1
-32.8
-30.2
Jan
USD14,500/ton
Aug
Dec
Average : USD13,500/ton
Source: Bahana estimates
1Q09
1,588
1,462
125
2Q09
1,952
1,702
250
q-q
(%)
23.0
16.4
99.5
y-y
(%)
(18.4)
28.5
(76.6)
1H08
4,203
2,270
1,933
1H09
3,539
3,164
375
%
chg.
(16)
39
(81)
2009F
8,667
6,238
2,429
1H09/
2009F
40.8
50.7
15.4
1H08/
2008
46.4
35.8
71.1
21
141
162
905
16
90
107
19
14
76
90
160
(16.6)
(15.5)
(15.6)
756.7
(34.1)
(46.0)
(44.5)
(82.3)
38
224
261
1,672
30
166
196
179
(20)
(26)
(25)
(89)
68
375
456
1,973
44.8
44.3
43.1
9.1
47.5
39.3
40.3
80.8
11
(6)
19
10
33
3
(16)
20
11
18
5
(18)
(114)
35
(92)
59.6
9.9
(661.7)
218.2
(616.4)
(57.0)
178.3
(701.6)
252.2
(376.7)
28
(8)
(32)
6
(6)
8
(34)
(94)
46
(74)
(73)
350
192
701
1,153
80
(44)
(17)
19
9.5
78.1
na
(268.8)
(385.7)
67.0
18.9
(58.2)
(32.1)
(15.3)
Pretax profit
939
37
68
85.2
(92.8)
1,666
104
(94)
1,992
5.2
79.0
Taxation
Minority interest
314
0
22
0
39
0
77.8
na
(87.5)
na
554
0
61
0
(89)
2,525
558
0
11.0
na
72.3
na
Net profit
624
14
28
95.2
(95.5)
1,112
43
(96)
1,434
3.0
82.8
Others
Gross margin (%)
Operating margin (%)
Pretax margin (%)
Net margin (%)
44.6
37.9
39.3
26.1
7.9
1.2
2.3
0.9
12.8
8.2
3.5
1.4
46.0
39.8
39.6
26.5
10.6
5.0
2.9
1.2
(IDR b)
Sales
COGS
Gross profit
Selling expense
G&A expense
Operating expenses
Operating profit
Interest income
Interest expense
Forex gain (expenses)
Other
Total other income (costs)
28.0
22.8
23.0
16.5
2009
Cons.
6,649
1H09/
Cons.
53.2
1,050
17.0
700
6.1
15.8
10.5
BAHANA Securities
Research (62 21 250 5735/ 250 5081)
Harry Su
harry.su@bahana.co.id
Teguh Hartanto
teguh.hartanto@bahana.co.id
Head of Research
Strategy, Telecommunications, Consumer, Distribution
ext 3600
ext 3610
Economist
ext 3605
Analyst
Plantation, Metal Mining
ext 3601
Analyst
Coal Mining, Property
ext 3603
Analyst
Toll road, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Constructions
ext 3606
Alfi Fadhliyah
alfi.fadhliyah@bahana.co.id
Assistant
ext 3607
Hari Septanto
hari.septanto@bahana.co.id
Assistant
ext 3602
Assistant
ext 3604
Tri Krisnapaskawati
tri.krisnapaskawati@bahana.co.id
Assistant
ext 3607
Head of Equity
ext 2545
Afifa
afifa@bahana.co.id
Equity Sales
ext 2546
Tjokro Wongso
tjokro@bahana.co.id
Equity Sales
ext 2547
Haselinda Rifman
haselinda@bahana.co.id
Equity Sales
ext 2524
John M Dasaad
dasaad@bahana.co.id
Equity Sales
ext 2549
ext 2500
ext 2572
Andry Asmoro
andry@bahana.co.id
Achmad Syafriel
achmad.syafriel@bahana.co.id
Katherine Hermawan
katherine@bahana.co.id
Pandu Anugrah
pandu.anugrah@bahana.co.id
Head Office
Graha Niaga, 19th Floor
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58
Jakarta 12190
Indonesia
Tel. 62 21 250 5081
Fax. 62 21 522 6049
Surabaya Branch
Wisma BII, Ground Floor
Jl. Pemuda 60-70
Surabaya 60271
Indonesia
Tel. 62 31 535 2788
http://www.bahana.co.id
DISCLAIMER
The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies
and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation
to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information
or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated
companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits,
losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the
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mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise
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person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards
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