Lnec - ICDS12: Life-Cycle Cost Optimization in Highway Concrete Bridges Management

ICDS12
International Conference DURABLE STRUCTURES: from construction to rehabilitation

LNEC Lisbon Portugal 31 May - 1 June 2012
DURABLE STRUCTURES
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LNEC Lisbon 31 May - 1June 2012
Life-cycle cost optimization in
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highway concrete bridges management
Joana Maia de Oliveira Almeida | ESTG-IPVC

Raimundo Moreno Delgado | FEUP-UP
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Paulo Fonseca Teixeira | IST-UTL
DURABLE STRUCTURES
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INDEX
1. Introduction
2. Degradation module
3. Life-cycle cost module

4. Optimization module
5. Application on a set of Portuguese bridges

6. Conclusions
LIFE-CYCLE COST OPTIMIZATION IN HIGHWAY CONCRETE BRIDGES MANAGEMENT
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1. INTRODUCTION
A possible approach to support bridge management decisions
The optimization goal is the life-cycle cost minimization (direct and indirect costs).
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The main restrictions are concerned with cost and performance limits.
The performance index considered for bridges structures is the state condition,
the one that is periodically classified in bridges inspections
with the usual 5 stages scale (1 for the best conditions and 5 for the worst conditions).
The final objective is to estimate future needs
and identify the optimized plan for interventions
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on a set of bridges during a medium/long period of time.
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1. INTRODUCTION
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Methodology structure (module by module)
INPUT DATA
(Bridges data, Highway data, Cost data, Historical data, restrains, etc)
DEGRADATION
MODULE
GENETIC
ALGORITHMIC
LIFE CYCLE COST

MODULE
OPTIMIZATION
MODULE
OUTPUT TO SUPPORT BRIDGE MANAGEMENT DECISIONS
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1. INTRODUCTION
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Type of interventions and its influence on performance and costs

For each bridge, in each time cycle,
3 different kinds of interventions are considered
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to identify the best intervention scenario:
After repair bridge state conditions (ECf) probabilities,

according to the bridge initial state condition (ECi):
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* Adey, B. T.; Hajdin, R.; Methodology for determination of

financial needs of gradually deteriorating bridges, Bridge
Maint., Safety, Management, Health Monit. and Inf. (2008),
Koh & Frangopol (eds).
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2. DEGRADATION MODULE
Probabilistic degradation model based on Markov Matrices

-
Orcesi & Cremona Model *
State condition (EC) temporal evolution

for different initial state conditions (EC0)
Probability of being in the worst condition (EC5)

temporal evolution for different initial states (EC0)
* Orcesi, A. D., Cremona, C. F., Optimization of management strategies applied to the national reinforced
concrete bridge stock in France, Structure and Infrastructure Engineering (2009) 355-366.
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2. DEGRADATION MODULE
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Probabilistic degradation model based on Markov Matrices

-
Roelfstra Model *
Probability of being in the worst condition (EC5)

temporal evolution for different initial states (EC0)
for normal environmental conditions
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State condition (EC) temporal evolution

for different initial state conditions (EC0)
for unfavorable, normal and favorable conditions
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* Roelfstra, G., Modele d'evolution de l'etat des ponts-routes en beton. PhD thesis,
cole Polytechnique Fdral de Lausanne (2001).
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3. LIFE-CYCLE COST MODULE

Direct costs
Indirect costs
Residual values and future costs
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Direct costs
KDECe(p,t),i
Ap
Function of the bridge

state condition
Bridge
Bridge state condition
Type of intervention
Time
Bridge deck area
Interventions unitary costs

CU1=1000k/m2
(repair)
CU2=1500k/m2
(substitution)
Based on EPs expert knowledge

(The median costs associated to
a set of repair and substitution
interventions, realized during the
last decade by EP)
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p
e
i
t
CUi,t
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Cost coefficient values
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Indirect costs
KIECe(p,t),i
Dp,c
CDT f(TMD, veloc., capacity,..)
Cost coefficient values
Days of
Extra time delay cost
intervention
16,24/h for light vehicles
Function of the bridge

state condition
p
e
i
t
Bridge
Time
4
42,31/h for heavy vehicles
Kc,i
Traffic
CDC f(TMD, detour lengh, )
restrictions
Extra circulation delay cost
on bridge
0,18/km for light vehicles

0,96/km for heavy vehicles
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Residual values and future costs
Represent the residual value of each scenario

(in relative terms)
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at the end of the analysis period of time
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Idp,t bridge age
TMDp,t average daily traffic
CU2,t substitution unitary cost
Bridge
Time
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p
e
i
t
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4. OPTIMIZATION MODULE
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Genetic Algorithm process
Individual = intervention scenario
Initial population of individuals (randomly created)

Evaluate the fitness of each individual of the population
Classifica
X INDIVIDUALS
POPULATION
o
das
New population
generation (selection and reproduction)
Obras
Evaluate the fitness of each individual of the population
X INDIVIDUALS POPULATION
Stop conditions
OPTIMUM SOLUTION (OPTIMUM SCENARIO)
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4. OPTIMIZATION MODULE
Genetic Algorithm calibration *
N of individuals per population:
Reproduction operators:
Survival rate
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Depends on the n of bridges
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5% - 25%
Crossover rate
75 - 90%
Permutation rate
< 10%
Mutation rate
0,1% - 10%
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Almeida, J. O., Delgado, R. M., Teixeira, P. F. Optimizao das intervenes de conservao

num conjunto de Pontes Ferrovirias usando um Algoritmo Gentico, ASCP2011, Coimbra (2011).
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5. APPLICATION ON A SET OF PORTUGUESE BRIDGES
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General considerations
Period of time:
5 cycles of 5 years each 25 years
Set of Portuguese bridges:
100 highway concrete bridges

(administrated by EP)
Main characteristics histograms:
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Minimum cost
Multi-objective decision support
Better performance
Direct costs 85% total costs (direct + indirect costs)
The indirect costs are not very representative on the total costs
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for the rest of the presented analysis results:

maximum state condition limit of 3,5 | maximum worth state condition probability of 23%
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Degradation model impact
The degradation model has a big impact in the final results of this kind of analysis.
(as it is predictable!)
The environmental conditions are very important whenever they are considered on the model
(should be very well characterized for future works, whenever Roelfstra model will be applied)
* used for the rest of the presented analysis results
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Cost coefficients uncertainty and sensitive analysis
Tabled cost coefficients (yet under calibration):
Cost coefficients
(function of the bridge state condition)
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defined with a probabilistic density triangular law

(the tabled coefficients as the most likely value
and a variation of +/-20% of that value)
Final life cycle cost (k) 200 Monte Carlo simulations results:
Around 5%impact!
Low impact!
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(calibration is not
so important)
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Unitary costs uncertainty and sensitive analysis

Unitary interventions costs defined with
probabilistic density functions
(based on EP expert knowledge)
Final life cycle cost (k) 500 Monte Carlo simulations results:
(With the
mean
values)
Around 10%impact!
However, if there is a
bigger uncertainty
associated to cost
values, the impact in
the final results could
be much higher
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6. CONCLUSIONS
Main conclusions from the application results - in terms of degradation model

It is very important to choose the most suitable degradation model for each bridge,
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taking in consideration its specific kind of structure.
Bridges environmental conditions characterization has a great importance on the

degradation models that considers that parameter as input.
(one of the most important data to define in an accurate way for future analysis)
For future works:
- Markov Matrices should be verified and adjusted with Portuguese historical

information.
- The age influence on the Markov matrices should be characterized to consider
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the influence of that parameter.

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6. CONCLUSIONS
Main conclusions from the application results in terms of costs

The direct costs represent more than 85% of the total costs (direct + indirect costs),
so the indirect ones are not very representative.
The variation for the state conditions cost coefficients doesnt represent more than 5%
of final results variation, so its calibration would not seem at this stage so relevant.
Although the unitary repair and substitution costs are the parameters with the greatest
impact at the final life cycle cost values, the uncertainty considered for those parameters
in the presented application, causes a low variation (around 10%) of the final results.
only slightly more than the difference gathered with an eventual variation of the
annual discount rate from 4 to 5%, which is 6.5% of the final total costs.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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Estradas de Portugal
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Fundao para a Cincia e Tecnologia
LNE
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Lnec - ICDS12: Life-Cycle Cost Optimization in Highway Concrete Bridges Management

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ICDS12

International Conference DURABLE STRUCTURES: from construction to rehabilitation

LNEC Lisbon 31 May - 1June 2012

Life-cycle cost optimization in

highway concrete bridges management

Joana Maia de Oliveira Almeida | ESTG-IPVC

Paulo Fonseca Teixeira | IST-UTL

LNEC Lisbon 31 May - 1June 2012

3. Life-cycle cost module

5. Application on a set of Portuguese bridges

LIFE-CYCLE COST OPTIMIZATION IN HIGHWAY CONCRETE BRIDGES MANAGEMENT

LNEC Lisbon 31 May - 1June 2012

A possible approach to support bridge management decisions

and identify the optimized plan for interventions

on a set of bridges during a medium/long period of time.

LIFE-CYCLE COST OPTIMIZATION IN HIGHWAY CONCRETE BRIDGES MANAGEMENT

LNEC Lisbon 31 May - 1June 2012

Methodology structure (module by module)

LIFE CYCLE COST

OUTPUT TO SUPPORT BRIDGE MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

LIFE-CYCLE COST OPTIMIZATION IN HIGHWAY CONCRETE BRIDGES MANAGEMENT

LNEC Lisbon 31 May - 1June 2012

Type of interventions and its influence on performance and costs

to identify the best intervention scenario:

After repair bridge state conditions (ECf) probabilities,

* Adey, B. T.; Hajdin, R.; Methodology for determination of

LIFE-CYCLE COST OPTIMIZATION IN HIGHWAY CONCRETE BRIDGES MANAGEMENT

LNEC Lisbon 31 May - 1June 2012

Probabilistic degradation model based on Markov Matrices

Orcesi & Cremona Model *

State condition (EC) temporal evolution

Probability of being in the worst condition (EC5)

LIFE-CYCLE COST OPTIMIZATION IN HIGHWAY CONCRETE BRIDGES MANAGEMENT

LNEC Lisbon 31 May - 1June 2012

Probabilistic degradation model based on Markov Matrices

Probability of being in the worst condition (EC5)

State condition (EC) temporal evolution

LIFE-CYCLE COST OPTIMIZATION IN HIGHWAY CONCRETE BRIDGES MANAGEMENT

LNEC Lisbon 31 May - 1June 2012

3. LIFE-CYCLE COST MODULE

Residual values and future costs

LIFE-CYCLE COST OPTIMIZATION IN HIGHWAY CONCRETE BRIDGES MANAGEMENT

3. LIFE-CYCLE COST MODULE

Function of the bridge

Bridge deck area

Interventions unitary costs

Based on EPs expert knowledge

Cost coefficient values

LNEC Lisbon 31 May - 1June 2012

LIFE-CYCLE COST OPTIMIZATION IN HIGHWAY CONCRETE BRIDGES MANAGEMENT

LNEC Lisbon 31 May - 1June 2012

3. LIFE-CYCLE COST MODULE

CDT f(TMD, veloc., capacity,..)

Cost coefficient values

Extra time delay cost

16,24/h for light vehicles

Function of the bridge

42,31/h for heavy vehicles

CDC f(TMD, detour lengh, )

Extra circulation delay cost

0,18/km for light vehicles

LIFE-CYCLE COST OPTIMIZATION IN HIGHWAY CONCRETE BRIDGES MANAGEMENT

3. LIFE-CYCLE COST MODULE