Transport Planning: Trip Generation

Travel-Demand Forecasting Process

General Framework of 4-Step Models
Population & Employment Forecasts

How many trips

will be made?

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Mode Split

Trip Assignment
Link & O-D Flows,
Times, Costs, etc.

Transportation
Network & Service
Attributes

Travel-Demand Forecasting Process

General Framework of 4-Step Models
Trip Generation
I

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Oi

Dj
Trip Distribution

Mode Split

Trip Assignment

J
Tij

Trip Assignment
-- path of flow Tij,auto
throughMode
the auto
Split
network

J
Tij,auto
J
Tij,transit

Travel-Demand Forecasts
Demand for added capacity and parking facilities is not uniformly distributed
throughout urban areas
Dependent on type of land use in each zone
residential
commercial
Industrial, etc.
Dependent on intensity of land use in each zone
residential density
workers per acre
shopping floor space, etc.

Trip generation models were postulated, calibrated and validated to

relate trip-producing capability of residential areas and trip-attracting
potential of various non-residential types of land-use.

Components of Mathematical Models

Components of Mathematical Models

Components of Mathematical Models

1st: Define Network

Map is defined a priori

Zone boundaries defined

Based on survey data

Zone land use quantified

2nd: Generate Travel Demands

Map is defined a priori

Zone boundaries defined

Based on survey data

Zone land use quantified

Generate Number of Trips:

TO each zone (Attractions)

FROM each zone (Productions)

Function of Land Use and sociodemographics in each zone

Hospitals

Industry

Shopping centers

Trip generation is a function of

land use activity

Schools ..

Residential zones
Workforce

Measures of land use activity

Activity

Measure

Employment centre

Number of jobs

Residential area
Education centre
Hospital
Retail centre

Industrial estate
Farm

Characteristics of Trips
By Purpose

Travel to work

Travel to school of college

Shopping trips

Social and recreational trips

Escort trips

Other trips
By Time of day

AM Peak

PM Peak

Off Peak
Aggregation Level

Person level trips

*Household level trips

*Zone level trips

Explanatory Variables
Trip generation is performed before distribution and mode split,
Therefore, in trip generation we cant use travel times, costs
These depend on knowing both origin and destination of the trip)

The total number of trips generated by a zone is assumed to be only a

function of:
Zonal attributes (population, employment, etc.)
Attributes of persons and activities in the zones (income,
auto ownership, etc.).

Explanatory Variables
Home (production) end variables:
population (by age, gender, etc.)
number of workers (by occupation)
household size
auto ownership
income
distance from CBD
.
Non-home (attraction) end variables:
employment (retail, office, industrial, etc.)
floor space (retail, office, industrial, etc.)
.

Trip Generation Modeling Approaches

Various operational approaches to trip generation modelling:
Growth Rate Models
1. Trip rate models: Trips classified
2. Cross-classification (category analysis) models: Trip-makers classified
Regression models
1. Zonal
2. Household-based
3. Person-based

Growth Factor Models

Simplistic method
Growth Factor
Future # of trips

Current #of trips

T = G* t
Future number of trips is a function of:

Change in population,
Change in income,
Change in car ownership,
etc.

Growth Factor (example)

Consider a zone i with 500 households

250 households (HHs) own cars

250 HHs do not own cars

Now, assume all HHs in zone i have a car in the future. How many trips will be produced?
If we assume all HHs will have a car in future what is the growth factor?:
Gi = projected car ownership/current car ownership
= 1 / 0.5 = 2

What is the projected number of trips produced by zone i?

Recall t = 2125 trips/day
Ti = Gi * ti
= 2 * 2125 = 4250 trips/day

Trip Rate Models

Rates are typically associated with important generators within the region (land use)
Examples: Retail, services, manufacturing

Rates often in person-trips per thousand sq ft of land use

Rather than vehicle trips

NOTE: Planners must be careful to apply trip rate models in same context in which
they were calibrated

Trip Rate Model Example

Trip Rate Model Example

Estimate the number of trips that will be generated by a new development with the
following land-use characteristics:

Make sure units

match up!

New trips
generated

Cross-classification
Also known as category analysis...similar to trip rate model

Classify households (or persons) by one or more variables

(e.g., household size AND # of cars).
Specific combinations of variables define household groups.
Assume that trip rates are relatively constant within each group.
Compute average trip rates for each group.
Zonal trips = sum of trips generated by all groups found in the zone
Provides highly detailed results

Potential Issues:

Requires large data sets

Lacks statistical goodness of fit measures

Does not require linearity (improvement)

Simple Cross-Classification Example

GIVEN: Daily Trip Rates (Trips per day) for each Household type
Household Location
Urban

Suburban

Rural

Vehicles Available
per Household
0
1
2+
0
1
2+
0
1
2+

Persons per Household

1
0.57
1.45
1.82
0.97
1.92
2.29
0.54
1.32
1.69

2,3
2.07
3.02
3.39
2.54
3.49
3.86
1.94
2.89
3.26

Average daily number of trips made by a HH (in a given zone)

in an urban location, with a single tenant owning 1 vehicle

4
4.57
5.52
5.89
5.04
5.99
6.36
4.44
5.39
5.76

5
6.95
7.9
8.27
7.42
8.37
8.74
6.82
7.77
8.14

Simple Cross-Classification Example

GIVEN: Number of each household type for future population
Vehicles
Household Location Available per
Household

Urban

Persons per Household

2,3

100

200

150

20

300

500

210

50

2+

150

100

60

Expected number of HH (in the zone) in an urban

location, with a single tenant owning 1 vehicle

Estimate the total number of trips that will be generated by the future population described:

Simple Cross-Classification Example

COMPUTE: Future Trips Generated
Household Location
Urban

Vehicles Available per

Household
0
1
2+

1
57
435
273

Persons per Household

2,3
4
414
685.5
1510
1159.2
339
353.4

= 1.45 trips/day * 300 HHs

To estimate total trips, sum the total trips for each household type:
Total Trips = 57+414+685.5+139+435+1510+1159.2+395+273+339+353.4+0
Total Trips generate by the zone = 5760.1 trips

5
139
395
0

Regression
Development of an equation to predict the number of trips (per person, HH, zone) based on:
Population
Households
Car ownership
Accessibility
Number of dwellings
Employment
Etc.

The equation should relate our observed inputs and output

Objective is to estimate best fit linear relationships between dependent variable (#of
trips) and one or more explanatory variables
The equation is calibrated to minimize errors
Model can be developed at the zonal or more disaggregate levels

Examples of Regression Models

Example: Two-variable model at the HH level:
Daily trip productions per household, all purposes 1.229 1.379 (#of vehicles per household)

Example: Two-variable model at zonal level:

Daily work trip attractions for a given zone 61.4 0.93 (Total zonal employment)

Example: Multi-variable model at the zonal level:

Work trip productions per zone
0.135 (Zonal population)
0.145 (Number of dwelling units per zone) 0.253 (Total number of automobiles owned in the zone)

Regression Example (1 variable)

Y: Number of Daily Trips X: Household Size
8
3
13
7
6
3
7
2
7
3
6
2
7
3
8
4
5
2
11
5
9
4
5
2
9
5
11
6
6
2
9
4

Parameter Value Estimation

# daily trips

Y
b

o
o

o
o
o

Yi
E, error, residual

o
o

o
Observed data
{xi,yi}, i=1,,n

o
What values of a & b best
fit the observed data?

a
xi

x
HH size

Y = a + bx

Regression Example (1 variable)

Y: Number of Daily Trips X: Household Size
8
3
13
7
6
3
7
2
7
3
Calibrated least square error line:
6
2
7
3
8
4
Y = 2.93 + 1.41 X
5
2
11
5
9
4
Number of Daily Trips
Household Size
5
2
(dependent variable)
(independent variable)
9
5
11
6
6
2
9
4

Parameter Value Estimation

Y

Y = a + bx
o
o
o
Yi

ei

o
o

b=1.41

o
o

o
o

What is the model estimation at xi?

Yi =a + bxi

a=2.93

xi

Parameter Value Estimation

Parameter estimation for all models (linear or otherwise) involves:

Theoretically specifying the model functional form and its explanatory

variables

Observing a representative sample of the systems behaviour

Defining the criterion defining best fit of the hypothesized model to the
observed data

Developing a statistical valid, computationally efficient procedure for finding

the best fit parameters for this problem

Evaluating the statistical performance of the estimated model and its

goodness-of-fit

Regression Example (2 variables)

Number of Daily Trips
8
13
6
7
7
6
7
8
5
11
9
5
9
11
6
9

Household Size
3
7
3
2
3
2
3
4
2
5
4
2
5
6
2
4

Number of Vehicles
2
3
1
0
3
2
2
3
1
3
3
1
3
3
2
3

Calibrated least square error line: Y = 2.91 + 1.39 X1 + .03 X2

Additional Forms
Linear:
T = 4.33 + 3.89 L1 0.005 L2 0.128 L3 0.012 L4
where
L1 = Vehicle ownership
L2 = Population density
L3 = Distance from CBD
L4 = Family income
(Source : Mertz and Hammer (1957) of BPR)

Exponential:
To = K1 Lo e -1 to
Td = K2 Ld e -2 td
(Source: Gupta and Hutchinson (1979))

Additional Forms
Multiplicative:
T = Po Pd Yo Yd Mo Md No t c fb .
P Population
Y Median Income
M Institutional character
N Transport supply
t Travel time
C Transport cost
F Departure frequency
(Source : Boston Washington corridor project)

Things to keep in mind

Regression models are easy to construct and use.
BUT underlying assumptions, however, may be wrong:
1. Linearity.
2. No interaction between explanatory variables
3. best fit equations may give counterintuitive results

Questions?