Probability

Taken from Schaums Easy Outlines Probability and Statistics

PROBABILISTIC MODELS
A probabilistic model is a mathematical description of an uncertain situation. Its two main
ingredients are listed below and are visualized in Fig. 1.2.

Chance processes, such as flipping a coin, rolling a die (singular for dice), or drawing a card at
random from a well-shuffled deck are called probability experiments. A probability experiment
is a chance process that leads to well defined outcomes or results. For example, tossing a coin
can be considered a probability experiment since there are two well-defined outcomesheads
and tails.
An outcome of a probability experiment is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.
A trial means flipping a coin once, or drawing a single card from a deck. A trial could also mean
rolling two dice at once, tossing three coins at once, or drawing five cards from a deck at once.
A single trial of a probability experiment means to perform the experiment one time. The set of
all outcomes of a probability experiment is called a sample space. Some sample spaces for
various probability experiments are shown here.

Sample spaces are used in classical probability to determine the numerical probability that an
event will occur. The formula for determining the probability of an event E is:

EXAMPLE: Two coins are tossed; find the probability that both coins land
SOLUTION: The sample space for tossing two coins is {HH, HT, TH, and TT}.Since there are
4 events in the sample space, and only one way to get two heads (HH), the answer is P(HH)=

P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB)

Read as the probability that either A occurs or B occurs or both A and B occurs.
Always identify if the two events being considered (A and B) are mutually exclusive or
independent or dependent when using this rule.
When A and B are mutually exclusive, that is, they both cannot occur at the same time, then
P (AB) = 0, thus,
P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB)
So, P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B)

P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B) 0

When the two events are independent, then P (AB) = P(A) x P(B), thus,
P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB) , calculate P (AB) as P(A) x P(B).

2014

Sample space = 300 adults

Number of persons who prefer to get their information from the internet = 56 (36 + 20)
Thus, P (adult prefers to get information from the internet) = 56/300 = 14/75

P (registered voter and does not prefer to get information from the internet) = 120 (=45+30+45)
300
= 2/5

When attempting this question note the key word OR then ask yourself the question Is it
possible for both events to occur simultaneously? Could a chosen adult be a register voter and
also get his/her information from the radio? The answer is yes!
Let P (A) = adult is a registered voter and P(B) = the adult prefers to get his/her information from
the radio.
Then, P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB)
P (A) = 156 / 300 (where 156 = 45+ 45+30+36)
P (B) = 90 / 300 (where 90 = 45+45)
P (AB) = 45/300
So, P (AUB) = 156 + 90 - 45
300

= 67/100

Conditional Probability states that

Event that is to occur

Event that has already occurred

And is read as what is the probability that A is likely to occur given that B has already
occurred?

Probability Trees

(i) Q: product = 24 is obtained as follows:

2die1 and 12 die2 or

12die1 and 2die2 or

3die1 and 8die2

8die1 and 3die2

4die1 and 6die2

4die2 and 6die1

or

or

or

Thus P (Q) = (1/12 x 1/12) x 6= 6/144 = 1/24

(ii) R: both numbers greater than 8(9,9); (9,10); (9,11); (9,12); (10,9); (10,10); (10,11); (10,12); (11,9);
(11,10); (11,11); (11,12); (12,9); (12,10); (12,11) and (12,12)
Each event has a probability of 1/144, so since there are 16 events
accounting for the numbers being reversed on each die, the P (R) = 16 x
1/44 = 16/144 = 1/9
(iii) For two events to be exclusive, the probability of both occurring
simultaneously is 0. Since it is impossible for the product of two
numbers to be 24, while at the same time satisfying the constraint that
both of the numbers are greater than 8, then the events are exclusive.

(iv) For two events to be independent then P(Q) x P (R) = P (Q R)

Since P(Q R) = 0 and P (Q) x P (R) =1/24 x 1/9 ( 0) then the two
events are not independent.