ALBERTA

ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
Q4 2015
Prepared by ATB Financial, Economics & Research
October 1, 2015

Daily Crude Oil Price, WTI

160
140
120

$US/barrel

100

80
60
40
20
0
Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Alberta Canola and Wheat Prices

700

$ per metric tonne

600

canola

500
400
300

wheat
200
100

0
Jun'13

Jun'14

Jun'15

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 002-0043

Total Building Permits in Alberta

1400

$ mi l lions, seasonally a djusted

1200

residential

1000
800

600
400

non-residential

200

0
Jul'12

Jul'13

Jul'14

Jul'15

Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Sep. 9, 2015 and CANSIM table 026-0006

Alberta Housing Starts

60

000s, all areas, S.A.A.R.

50
40
30
20
10

0
Aug'12

Aug'13

Aug'14

Aug'15

Source: CMHC, Sep 9, 2015 and Statistics Canada CANSIM table 027-0054

Change in Employment in Alberta

25
20

000s (s easonally a djusted)

15
10
5
0

-5

Aug'13

Aug'14

Aug'15

-10
-15
-20
Source: Sta tistics Canada, The Daily, Sep. 4, 2015 a nd CANSIM ta ble 282-0087

Alberta Retail Sales

6.8

$ bi llions (seasonally a djusted)

6.6
6.4

-6%

+2%

6.2
6.0

5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
Jul'13

Jul'14

Jul'15

Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Sep. 23, 2015 and CANSIM table 080-0020

Alberta Wholesale Trade

$ billions (seasonally adjusted)

7.5
7.0
6.5

6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
Jul'13

Jul'14

Jul'15

Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Sep. 21, 2015 and CANSIM table 081-0011

Alberta Manufacturing Shipments

8.0

$ bi llions (seasonally a djusted)

7.0

6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0

2.0
1.0
0.0
Jul'13

Jul'14

Jul'15

Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Sep. 16, 2015, and CANSIM table 304-0015

Net Interprovincial Migration to/from Alberta

14,000
12,000

net interprov.

10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000

2,000
0
-2,000

Q2'08

Q2'09

Q2'10

Q2'11

Q2'12

Q2'13

Q2'14

Q2'15

-4,000
Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Sep. 29, 2015 and CANSIM table 051-0017