REAL ESTATE IN VICTORIA...

Keeping You Informed

Fall 2015

VICTORIA SOLIDLY IN A SELLERS MARKET

REAL ESTATE IN BC
BC has long been touted as having the most expensive real estate
in Canada. The recently released figures from the Canadian Real
Estate Association and the BC Real Estate Association for the first
eight months of 2015 lend support to this notion. The value of
residential real estate sold in Canada through the Multiple Listing
Service (MLS) during this period was $157.6 billion. This was on
the sale of 357,378 units for an average sale price of $440,948.
The value of sales in BC over the same period was $44.3 billion
(28.1% of the total for Canada) on the sale of 70,617 units (19.8%
of the total) for an average sale price of $627,008. From a
comparative perspective, Ontario had an average sale price of
$465,444 and Alberta $399,306.
Moreover, the gap in prices between BC and the rest of Canada has
grown in 2015. The dollar value of sales in BC was up +35.9%
year-over-year versus +8.0% for the rest of Canada, unit sales were
up +22.4% in BC versus +2.2% for the rest of Canada and the
average sale price was up +15.4% versus +5.7% for the rest of
Canada. (BC added nearly $45,000 to the average sale price in
Canada).
However, there is considerable variation across the province in
terms of average sale prices, ranging from a low of $248,558 in
Powell River to a high of $891,408 in Greater Vancouver. With
sales totalling $26.3 billion, Greater Vancouver had 59.4% of the
total dollar value in BC, but only 41.7% of the unit sales. If we
exclude Greater Vancouver from the calculations, we find that the
average sale price for the rest of the province is a more modest
$516,070, and if we further exclude the Fraser Valley, the average
sale price drops to $374,158. BCs reputation as having the most
expensive real estate in Canada is, in no small part, attributable to
the extraordinary influence of Vancouver and its suburbs.

TABLE 1: REAL ESTATE IN BC WITH COMPARISONS

January to August 2015
Dollar
Value*

Boards
Gr Vancouver
Fraser Valley
Victoria
Okanagan-Mainline
Vancouver Island
BC Northern
Chilliwack
Kamloops
Kootenay
South Okanagan
Northern Lights
Powell River

$26,296.5
$7,694.6
$2,881.2
$2,297.0
$1,971.6
$785.1
$690.7
$590.4
$474.5
$473.6
$62.7
$59.7

British Columbia
$44,277.5
Canada
$157,585.1
Canada (excluding $113,307.6
BC)
* in millions

Units
Sold

Average
Sale Price

29,500
13,625
5,542
5,638
5,810
2,957
2,101
1,824
1,702
1,450
228
240

$891,408
$564,739
$519,875
$407,410
$339,350
$265,498
$328,769
$323,657
$278,777
$326,599
$275,075
$248,558

70,617
357,378
286,761

$627,008
$440,948
$395,129

TABLE 2: STATISTICAL TRENDS - ALL RESIDENTIAL

(Greater Victoria and Other Areas)
QUARTER-TO-QUARTER COMPARISONS
3r d Qtr 14
New Listings
2,919
Sales
1,796
Avg Sale Price
$499,777
Median Sale Price $450,000
Ratio Sales Listings
.62
Avg Days to Sell
70
Sale Price as %
of Org List Price
94.4%
Mortgage Rates
(Posted 3 yr Fixed BoC) 3.45%

3r d Qtr 15 Change
2,885
-34
2,108
+312
$523,132 +$23,355
$465,000 +$15,000
.73
+.11
61
-9
96.2%

+1.8%

In summary, it seems like we have two types of real estate markets

3.39% -0.09%
in this country at this point in time. One is centred on the large
metropolitan markets and their suburbs that have high prices and
are experiencing strong price appreciation, namely, Greater
Vancouver and Metropolitan Toronto. (In fact, taken together, Vancouver and Toronto add more than $100,000 to the
average sale price of a residential property in Canada). The other is the rest of the country where both prices and price
growth are more modest in nature.

2 REAL ESTATE IN VICTORIA...Keeping You Informed

THE VICTORIA MARKET

After languishing for nearly five years, 2015 may turn out to be a
pivotal year for real estate in Victoria. Virtually all the market
indicators are showing signs of increasing strength. On the
supply side, the number of listings decreased slightly from the
same period last year. On the demand side, there was a
significant increase in the number of sales. The ratio of sales-tolistings (a measure of market strength) was also up significantly.
Sale prices were higher and continue on an upward trend.
Properties spent less time on the market before they sold. There
are anecdotal reports of many multiple offer situations. Indeed,
an analysis reveals that some 17% of single family dwellings sold
above their list price in the 3rd Qtr of 2015. Sales of residential
properties (i.e., all types of housing excluding lots/acreage and
commercial) through the Victoria Real Estate Boards (VREBs)
MLS totalled 2,108 in the 3rd Qtr of 2015, up +17% from 1,796
sales in the 3rd Qtr of 2014. The number of new listings was
2,885, down slightly from 2,919 in the 3rd Qtr of 2014. The salesto-new-listings ratio was .73 in the 3rd Qtr of 2015, up from .62 a
year ago and up significantly from .51 two years ago. Finally,
sale prices were higher. The average sale price of a
residential property in Greater Victoria and other areas was
$523,132 in the 3rd Qtr of 2015, up +4.7% from $499,777 in the
3rd Qtr of 2014. The median sale price was $465,000, up from
$450,000 last year. The figure of $523,132 compares to average
sale prices of $890,199 in Vancouver, $622,345 in Toronto,
$562,622 in the Fraser Valley and $457,713 in Calgary.

Fall 2015
TABLE 3 REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY - Greater Victoria
October 2014 to September 2015
Single Family Dwellings
District*
Sales
Ratio Avg. Sale Price % Chg**
Victoria/VW
500
.73
$622,911
+1.5
Oak Bay
299
.76
$982,458
+9.5
Esquimalt
118
.78
$483,564
+0.3
View Royal
96
.64
$556,972
+5.5
Saanich East
854
.73
$681,680
+6.7
Saanich West
366
.67
$545,712
-0.5
Central Saanich
212
.66
$616,860
-1.0
North Saanich
183
.73
$705,089
+8.0
Sidney
150
.71
$496,393
+8.5
Highlands
25
.37
$647,718
+8.1
Colwood
219
.62
$515,737
+4.9
Langford
576
.62
$496,276
+3.4
Metchosin
40
.47
$696,446
+11.3
Sooke
290
.61
$390,195
+1.1
Waterfront
155
.56
$1,279,417
-7.0
Totals
4,083
.71
$633,563
+3.7
Gulf Islands
269
.58
$586,140
+16.5
Malahat & Area
288
.63
$500,253
+13.4
*District Avg. Sales Prices exclude sales of Waterfront
Condominiums
1,989
.61
$329,832
+3.8
Townhouses
792
.67
$425,281
+1.4
** Percentage Change over period Oct 2013 to Sep 2014

Table 3 sum m arizes real estate activity over the past twelve
m onths by District and by housing category and shows the
percentage change in average sale prices year-over-year .

REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY 3RD QTR 2015

Sales of SFDs in greater Victoria in the 3rd Qtr of 2015 totalled
1,118, up +16.7% from 958 sales in the 3rd Qtr of 2014. The
average sale price of SFDs in the 3rd Qtr of 2015 was
$661,982, up +7.8% from an average of $614,133 in the 3rd Qtr of 2014. Moreover, the median sale price was $570,000,
compared to $550,000 in the 3rd Qtr of 2014. (Note: there were fifteen sales above $2 million, which pushed up sales prices).
Prices appear to have begun an upward trend with quarter-over-quarter increases over the past three quarters. SFDs that
sold in the 3rd Qtr of 2015 were on the market for an average of 46 days, compared to 62 days last year. The sales-to-listings
ratio was .77 in the 3rd Qtr of 2015, compared to .63 last year.
Condominium sales also strengthened in the 3rd Qtr of 2015 with sales of 572, up +30.3% from 439 sales in the 3rd Qtr of
2014. The average sale price for a condo was $322,326 in the 3rd Qtr of 2015, down slightly from $323,909 in the 3rd
Qtr of 2014. The median sale price was $277,000, up from $270,000 last year. Prices, which had shown an upward trend
since the 4th Qtr of 2012, have levelled off in the past year. Condos took an average of 64 days to sell in the 3rd Qtr of 2015,
down from 76 days last year. The sales-to-listings ratio was .75, compared to .57 last year.
There were 221 townhouse sales in the 3rd Qtr of 2015, up +21% from 182 sales in the 3rd Qtr of 2014. The average selling
price in the 3rd Qtr of 2015 was $433,493, up +2.2% from $424,008 in the 3rd Qtr of 2014. The median sale price was
$405,000, up slightly from $400,000 last year. Townhouses took an average of 54 days to sell in the 3rd Qtr of 2015,
compared to 63 days last year. The sales-to-listings ratio was .74, up from .64 last year.
Real Estate in Victoria ...Keeping You Informed: I provide this newsletter to clients, customers and friends to help them keep informed of developments
in the real estate market in the Victoria area. If you do not want to receive this newsletter in the future, please let me know. It is not intended to solicit or
interfere with existing listings or Agency relationships. The information contained herein is based on sources which are believed to be reliable, but it is not
guaranteed. The content of this newsletter is copyright. The data and information outlined herein was derived from a number of sources including: the
VREB, the BCREA and the CREA. The Publisher is responsible for the analysis of the data and any opinions expressed herein.