Energy Policy 77 (2015) 227237

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Energy Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Evaluation of energy saving potential in China's cement industry using

the Asian-Pacic Integrated Model and the technology promotion
policy analysis
Zongguo Wen a,n, Min Chen b, Fanxin Meng c
a

State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Electric Power Research Institute of Guangdong Power Grid Corporation, Guangzhou 510080, China
c
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875,
China
b

H I G H L I G H T S






We evaluate the effectiveness of energy savings and emission reductions in China's cement industry via the AIM/end-use model.
Three scenarios are simulated to project the potential for energy savings and emission reductions over the next decade.
Structural adjustment and technology promotion are both key approaches for energy conservation.
Structural adjustment is the most important approach to reduce the CO2 emissions from the cement industry.

art ic l e i nf o

a b s t r a c t

Article history:
Received 11 July 2014
Received in revised form
25 September 2014
Accepted 21 November 2014
Available online 24 December 2014

Much of China's cement industry still uses outdated kilns and other inefcient technologies, which are
obstacles to improving energy efciency. Huge improvements in energy consumption intensity can be
made by improving this technology. To evaluate the potential for energy-saving and CO2 emissions reduction in China's cement industry between 2010 and 2020, a model was developed based on the AsianPacic Integrated Model (AIM). Three scenarios (S1, S2 and S3) were developed to describe future
technology policy measures in relation to the development of the cement industry. Results show that
scenario S3 would realize the potential for CO2 emissions mitigation of 361.0 million tons, accounting for
25.24% of the predicted emissions, with an additional energy saving potential of 39.0 million tons of coal
equivalent by 2020. Technology promotion and industrial structure adjustment are the main measures
that can lead to energy savings. Structural adjustment is the most important approach to reduce the CO2
emissions from the cement industry; the resulting potential for CO2 emissions reduction will be increasingly large, even exceeding 50% after 2016.
& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords:
Cement industry
Technology selection
Energy-saving
CO2 emissions reduction
AIM/end-use model

1. Introduction
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report issued in 2013 clearly states that there is an extremely likely (95100%) relation between human activity and
warming since the mid-20th century (IPCC, 2013). Rising CO2 and
other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions largely deriving from energy consumption are contributing to signicant global climate
change (Zhou et al., 2013). One such challenge is to reduce GHG
emissions from industry, which is one of the greatest contributors
n

Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: wenzg@tsinghua.edu.cn (Z. Wen),
mengfanxin1226@163.com (F. Meng).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.11.030
0301-4215/& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

to anthropogenic GHG concentration (Hashimoto et al., 2010; Wen

et al., 2014c). Approximately 5% of global anthropogenic CO2 can
be attributed to cement production. In China, the cement industry
is the second most energy intensive industry (after the steel industry) accounting for 5.4% (179 million tce) of the country's total
energy use and 15% (1137 million tons CO2) of the country's total
greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 (CCA, 2011).
The cement industry, as a pillar of Chinese economic development, has grown rapidly alongside the national economy. Cement
production has increased dramatically from 65.24 million tons in
1978 to 2099 million tons in 2011, with an average annual growth
rate of 11.08% (NBSC, 2013). Up to 2011, China has been the largest
cement-producer in the world for 26 consecutive years, accounting for about 60% of the world's total cement production. During

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Z. Wen et al. / Energy Policy 77 (2015) 227237

the 12th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (12th FYP, 20112015), cement production will continue
to increase rapidly. Overcapacity has become the biggest obstacle
to overcome, and managing this is the key factor for reducing total
emissions in the cement industry (CCA, 2011).
In the cement industry, CO2 emissions come from fossil fuel
combustion and the calcination process. In 2010, the CO2 emissions from China's cement industry were 1137 million tons, an
increase of 38% from 820 million tons in 2005. According to Wu's
calculations (Wu, 2006), every ton of cement production produces
0.815 t CO2 on average, of which 0.390 t is from fuel combustion
and 0.425 t from raw material decomposition in the calcination
process.
During China's 11th FYP (20062010), the Chinese government
aimed to phase out obsolete vertical kilns, and promote dry rotary
kilns that have new suspension pre-heaters or pre-calciners (NSP
kilns). The specic energy consumption of NSP kilns are 20% lower
than that of vertical kilns. Widespread use in China began in 2000
(Xu et al., 2012), and by 2010, the proportion of cement production
from NSP kilns had reached 80% (MIIT of PRC, 2011a), which shows
a signicant shift in the cement industry to promote energy efciency. From 2005 to 2010, the yearly total energy consumption
per unit of cement production decreased from 0.119 tce/t to
0.096 tce/t, a drop of 24%; the total electricity consumption declined from 0.0123 tce/t to 0.0116 tce/t with a drop of 6.4%; and the
heat consumption for clinker also went down from 0.146 tce/t to
0.120 tce/t with a decline of 21.7%. However, there are still many
outdated kilns (e.g. vertical kilns) used in China's cement industry,
which is one of the biggest obstacles to improve the overall energy
efciency of the industry. With the large-scale development of
NSP kilns in China's cement industry, the comprehensive energy
consumption of domestic advanced kilns has reached the international advanced level. Taking the NSP kilns with large scale
production ( 44000 t/day) for example, comprehensive energy
consumption of the average domestic kiln and the international
level were 0.105 tce/t and 0.096 tce/t respectively. Therefore,
overall there is 10% room for improvement in energy efciency
compared with international advanced NSP kilns.
In recent years, China's cement industry has taken several
measures to reduce its energy consumption and CO2 emissions,
primarily through: increasing production efciency; regulating the
industry; and promoting advanced energy-saving and CO2 emissions-reduction technologies (Chen et al., 2012). During the 11th
FYP, total CO2 emissions per ton of cement production decreased
to 0.605 t in 2010 from 0.770 t in 2005. And there was a total CO2
emissions reduction of 309 million tons in 2010 compared with
the CO2 emission level in 2005. A total reduction of 28.88 million
tons of CO2 emissions was achieved by eliminating outdated cement clinker capacity; the use of low-temperature cogeneration
technologies reduced emissions by 14.45 million tons; and
mixing materials with waste residues reduced emissions by
139.70 million tons. The rest of emissions reductions were induced
by other energy saving and emission reduction technologies such
as combined grinding technology, motor frequency conversion
transformation and so on (Tsinghua University and ITIBMIC, 2012).
Overall this led to a signicant effect on energy savings and the
reduction of CO2 emissions. Related effects in China's cement
sector have been discussed at depth in academic literature. For
example, Jiang (2007) estimated the effects on energy-savings and
CO2 reduction from the increased production efciency. Other
studies (Wang et al., 2010; Xiong et al., 2004) focused on the potential for energy-savings and CO2 emissions reduction from
changes in industrial structure, while some (Zeng, 2006) measured
the benets of the promotion of energy saving technologies.
However, the literature mentioned above only focuses on one aspect of energy saving and emission reduction measures, such as

production efciency, industrial structure, promotion of a few

technologies and others. Further, many of the existing studies lack
quantitative evaluations on the inuence of technology promotion
(Gbel et al., 2004; Worrell et al., 2000), while the potential for
energy saving and emissions reduction by technology promotion is
also rarely mentioned. Those disadvantages make it difcult for
government managers to fully understand the potential for energy
saving and emission reduction and formulate proper policies.
Several energy modeling approaches based on the system integration method have been used to forecast future trends in energy demand and CO2 emissions, and to assess strategies for energy-saving and emissions reduction; these can be categorized
into top-down and bottom-up models (Matsuoka et al., 1995;
Turton, 2008). Top-down models start with an economic mechanism using prices and elasticity as economic indices and present relationships between energy consumption, production and
economic indices in an in-depth manner (Kainuma et al., 2000;
Liang et al., 2013), of which the CGE (Computational General
Equilibrium) model is the most common (Farmer and Steinberger,
1999; Naqvi and Peter, 1996; Wang et al., 2005). Bottom-up
models simulate energy systems based on technologies for energy
consumption and production (Bohringer and Rutherford, 2009). Of
these, the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System)
and AIM (Asian-Pacic Integrated Model) are the most common
(SEI, 2006; UNFCCC, 2008; Wen et al., 2014b). The AIM/end-use
model can simulate industry production processes and the effectiveness of energy-saving and CO2 emissions-reduction approaches with an independent technical optimal selection module
(Mikiko et al., 2000; Xu and Masui, 2009; Wen et al., 2014a;
Chunark et al., 2013, 2014; Selvakkumaran et al., 2014a, 2014b),
which is unique amongst the analysis of energy-saving and CO2
emissions-reduction approaches. Other bottom-up models include
the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) model, developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (Hainoun
et al., 2006; Yuksek et al., 2006), the MESSAGE model and the
Market Allocation (MARKAL) model etc. (Berger et al., 1987;
Fishborne and Abilock, 1981). Moreover, the Industrial Water
Conservation Potential Analysis Model (IWCPA) has been developed for research on the potential for water saving in the electricity, iron and steel, petrochemical, and textile industries (Du
et al., 2007). The Conservation Supply Curve (CSC) model has been
applied to the analysis of the energy efciency and CO2 emissions
of the steel and cement industries in India (Morrow et al., 2014).
In this paper, we analyze different technology policies and
approaches for energy-saving and CO2 emissions reduction in
China's cement industry using the AIM/end-use model. This paper
has been divided into ve sections: Section 2 describes the
methodology used for this study on the cement industry and gives
a sketch of three scenarios developed to describe future technology policies in relation to the development of the cement industry; Section 3 presents analyses of the results and key ndings;
discussion is presented in Section 4; and the nal section provides
conclusion and policy implications.

2. Methods
2.1. AIM/end-use model
Developed by Japan's National Institute for Environmental
Studies (NIES), the AIM/end-use model is based on a cost minimization linear programming approach. It simulates the ows of
energy and materials in an economy, from the source and supply
of primary materials and energy, through the conversion into
secondary energy and materials, and nally to the delivery of enduse products or services. It is commonly used to estimate future

Z. Wen et al. / Energy Policy 77 (2015) 227237

energy demand and emissions at the regional- and country-levels

(Wen et al., 2014a; Kainuma et al., 2003; Strachan et al., 2009;
Mikiko et al., 2000; Matsuoka et al., 1995; Promjiraprawat et al.,
2014).
2.1.1. Simulation ow
Simulations using the AIM/end-use model include the following processes (Hibino et al., 1996): 1) determine the product demand of industry through external modeling or scenario analysis;
2) select the most appropriate production technology and optimize; 3) calculate energy consumption of the selected technology;
and 4) calculate CO2 emissions and other air pollutants.
In the model, different technology units are connected by
material ow and energy ow. The inputs of units are regarded as
energy, while the outputs are products. Taking raw meal processing for example, limestone and electricity on the input side are
known as energy, the outputs of clinker are regarded as products. The products or energy in one technology unit can also
become the energy or products in the next unit. The links with
each other form the material ow and energy ow in industrial
production, connecting all the technologies and materials together
to form a full analysis framework.
2.1.2. Technology selection frame
Selection of technologies is the core module in the AIM/enduse model, which can reect differences in energy consumption
and CO2 emissions between different technologies. Various policy
measures and scenarios work through the effects of the technology selection process. For example, subsidy measures imposed on
an advanced technology can accelerate the rate of technology replacement by improving the techno-economic level, ultimately
resulting in a decline in total industrial energy consumption and
CO2 emissions.
In general, the change in one technology can be categorized
into two scenarios: replacement when the original technical life
expires, and improvement or replacement despite the original life
not having expired. The technology replacement process within
the model can be expressed as follows:

f1 =

229

T1 + C1
T1 + C2

(1)

f2 =

T1 + C1
T1 + T2 + C2

(2)

f3 =

T1 + C1
T1 + T3 + C3

(3)

Where f1 is the replacement function when the technical life expires, f2 is the improvement function when the original technical
life is still unexpired, and f3 is the replacement function when the
original technical life is still unexpired. T1 is the xed investment
cost of the original technology; C1 is the combined operating and
maintenance cost of the original technology; T1 is the xed investment cost of the alternative technology used when the original technical life expires; T2 and T3 are the xed investment cost of
improvement and replacement of the technology respectively,
when the original technical life is still unexpired; C2 is the combined operating and maintenance cost of the original technical life
after improvement, and C3 is the combined operating and maintenance cost of the replacement technology.
When f 4 1, the original technology should be replaced or
improved; when f r1, the original technology should still be used.

2.1.3. Optimization algorithm

The mathematical functions in the AIM/end-use model are
single-objective linear optimization equations with multiple constraints that include emissions constraints, a service demand
constraint, a technology popularizing rate constraint, operating
situation constraints, resource possibility constraints and so on.
The objective is a total cost minimization function (Eq. (4)) (Yang,
2004). The model outputs contain the amount of production
technology, energy consumption and related emissions from industry in a predicted year.

Fig. 1. Structure of the AIM/end-use model as applied to China's cement sector.

230

TC =

Z. Wen et al. / Energy Policy 77 (2015) 227237

Tl + Cl + Qm m

min
(4)

Where TC is the total cost, Tl is the xed investment cost of

technology l, Cl is the operating and maintenance cost of technology l, Qm is the emission of pollutants and greenhouse gas m,
and m is the emission tax on pollutants and greenhouse gas m.
2.1.4. Construction of the model
Fig. 1 shows the structure of the AIM/end-use model for China's
cement industry. Based on the production, technology and future
trends of China's cement industry, the production process can be
divided into four main sub-processes: raw mix processing, pulverized coal grinding, clinker sintering and cooling, and cement
grinding. Raw material grinding technology can be further divided
into three types: balling and drying technology, vertical milling
and drying technology, and roller press machine. Pulverized coal
grinding can be further divided into ball mill and vertical mill.
Clinker sintering, according to production scale and technology
type, can be divided into four types of kilns: small-size new dry
kilns ( o2000 t clinker/d), middle-size new dry kilns (2000
4000 t clinker/d), large-size new dry kilns (4 4000 t clinker/d),
and vertical kilns. Finally, the cement grinding process includes
three technologies: cement ball mill, grinding technology combined
with roller press machine and ball mill, and cement vertical mill.
The concrete technical parameters were described in the Subsection
2.2.3. In the model, the products, materials, energy and production
technologies corresponding to the relevant separate units in the
AIM/end-use model approach, are linked by intermediate products
to form the complete cement production process.
2.2. Input data
The input data used in this study include product parameters,
energy parameters, technical parameters and policy parameters.
These can be obtained via an additional model, data input and
scenarios analysis. In this paper, we set 2010 as the base year for
simulations, and 2020 as the objective year. Greenhouse gas
mainly refers to CO2 emissions.
2.2.1. Production parameter
The production parameter is the amount of cement produced in
any given year, which is usually obtained through systemic forecast research. According to research (Mao et al., 2010; Li et al.,
2005; Yang, 2010; Tong et al., 2010), there are four types of forecasting methods including per capita consumption method, GDPbased method, curve tting method and industrial life cycle
method. Although the methods were different, all studies determined that cement demand will reach saturation between 2015
and 2020, and then begin to decrease. Out of these prediction
methods, the industrial life cycle method has a stronger accuracy
for the predicted values and the simulation on the rules of industrial development. From the existing research results (Ke et al.,
2012; Lei et al., 2011), the development of the cement industry in
America and Japan conformed to the industrial life cycle curve.
And the process of industrialization in China is close to that of
Japan. Therefore, there is high accuracy using the industrial life
cycle curve to simulate the cement production in China.

Within the industrial life cycle method, industrial development

follows the cycle of: initial industrial stage, growth stage, mature
stage and decline stage. This is similar to the cycle of technology
promotion. Industrial production also shows an S-curve, which
can be described by the Pearl Curve expression as follows:

K
, t tn

+
e m at
1

y=

A + Bebt , t > tn

(5)

Where y is the industrial product yield, t is year, m, K, a, etc., are

the unknowns.
With the help of the China Cement Association, we carried out
some efcient and important data research and simulated cement
production in China between 2010 and 2020 using the industry
life cycle method. According to the national development plan and
strategy in China's cement industry (ITIBMIC, 2012), it could be
ascertained that the industrialization and urbanization in China
will reach preliminary completion between 2015 and 2020, when
the saturation point of cement production will appear. The peak
production values will be 19002300 million tons cement. Taking
the saturation point and peak values as references, we used the
logistic tting method from SPSS analysis software to evaluate and
rectify the life cycle curve parameter to obtain the quantities seen
in Table 1. From the table, there is an increase in cement production from 1868 million tons in 2010 to 2057 million tons in
2015 and 2171 million tons in 2020. We predicted that 2020 would
be the peak of cement production in our study.
2.2.2. Energy parameter
The emission factor of energy fuels are given in Table 2. The CO2
emission contribution of fossil fuels is directly retrieved from IPCC
guideline (2006), and the CO2 emission contribution from electricity is from the Regional Grid Baseline Emission Factors of China
in 2010, published by the National Development and Reform
Commission. The conversion coefcients of different energy types
are from China Energy Statistical Yearbook, 2011 (NBSC, 2011).
2.2.3. Technical parameter
The technical parameters (life span, xed investment cost,
operating and maintenance cost, technology ratio and so on) were
mainly obtained from the technology directory (ITIBMIC, 2012),
the statistical data of industry associations, many data surveys of
cement industry plants and the cement industry association in
China and experts' advice (see Table 3). For the surveys, we asked
more than 200 NSP cement plants to ll in a technical questionnaire and interviewed 3 design institutes, namely Tianjin Cement Industry Design & Research Institute, Hefei Cement Design &
Research Institute and the China Building Materials Academy. In
addition, we visited some cement enterprises such as Jido Development Group, Huaxin Cement Company, BBMG Group and others
to carry out a eld survey in order to verify the data variables.
2.2.4. Policy parameter
The technology policies for energy savings and emission reductions in China's cement industry are mainly divided into two
types: control and command policies, and incentive-based policies. Control and command policies are usually mandatory policy
measures, such as elimination of backward production capacity,

Table 1
Predicted value of cement products in China (million tons).
Year

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Cement

1868

1909

1952

1990

2025

2057

2085

2110

2133

2153

2171

Z. Wen et al. / Energy Policy 77 (2015) 227237

Table 2
Emission factors assigned to fuels used in the cement industry (t CO2/tce).
Fuel type

Emission factor

Raw coal
Coke
Electricity
Fuel oil
Natural gas

1.99
2.72
2.14
2.16
1.65

emission constraints and so on. Incentive-based policies are

mainly economic incentive measures within the market, such as
cost subsidies, tax control and other approaches.
In this paper, we set different policy inuence factors and
simulate the effects of a single policy. Based on the simulation
results, we can quantitatively assess the effects of energy savings and emission reductions through technology promotion
and can also identify initially the promotion policies required by
energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies. In the AIM
model, the ve technology policy simulation environments we
control are as follows: initial competition environment, approach to the elimination of backward production capacity,
policy constraints on energy consumption and emissions, and
policy on cost subsidies and tax policy. Furthermore, for policy
on cost subsidies, we x the three possible cost subsidy rates at
10%, 30% and 50% in the light of foreign experiences (Ma, 2008).
For tax policy, the carbon tax is one of three grades: 50 Yuan/t
CO2, 100 Yuan/t CO2 and 300 Yuan/t CO2, based on research at
home and abroad (Mao, 2010; Lu et al., 2010). There are thus
9 technology policy environments in total. Then we put all the
parameters of the 8 selected technologies into the AIM model to
simulate the technology promotion trend during the study
period individually under the 9 technology policy environments. Finally, we get 9 separate simulation results, namely the
changing trend of technology promotion popularizing rate under different policy environments, shown in Table 4.
According to the results, we have derived the applicable policies for the promotion of energy saving and emission reduction
in China's cement industry as shown in Table 5.

231

2.3. Technological details

Energy-saving and CO2 emission-reduction technologies can be
divided into three types based on their technical features: production technology, technology for comprehensive utilization of
resources and energy, and pollution control technology. Out of
those, the production technology mainly refers to resource reduction technologies, namely material consumption, energy consumption, and pollutants discharge. These can be reduced in the
production process, including the new technology with low energy and low pollution, and substitution of original fuel or pretreatment and process optimization. Technologies for comprehensive utilization of resources and energy include the recycling,
processing, transforming or extracting of waste heat, excess pressure and other waste generated from the production process. This
creates new accessible energy or materials, such as comprehensive
utilization of waste heat, treatment and reuse of wastewater at
high concentrations and solid waste disposal. Pollution control
technology means that the pollutants are reduced or eliminated by
chemical, physical or biological methods so that the pollutant
discharge can meet the environmental standard or demands.
Based on a survey of China's cement industry, in the three
technology types the proportion of advanced technologies possessing strong positive effects on energy saving and emission reduction and economic applicability was around 70% in 2010.
However, the promotion popularizing rate of specic advanced
technologies was still low: the popularizing rate of most technologies was lower than 40%. For example, the efciency of xed
grate cooler technology in China has already achieved international standards, but it is used in China in less than 10% of cases,
and is only expected to reach 25% by the end of the 12th FYP
(ITIBMIC, 2012). During the 11th FYP, advanced technology promotion for energy-savings and CO2 emission reductions was still
growing. And the potential for energy-savings and CO2 emission
reductions by technology introduced will be considerable in the
12th FYP, although it is now still in the early stages.
From the resource/energy consumption, pollutant emissions
and technical economic perspectives, we selected 8 technologies
for this paper from the technical catalog published by government
sectors and industry associations (ITIBMIC, 2012). The selected
technologies are mainly distributed amongst the following four
processes: raw meal grinding, calcination, cement grinding and
the entire process. Of these, 5 technologies are at the promotion

Table 3
Parameters for production technologies in the cement industry.
Technology type
Raw mix processing
Raw meal ball milling
Raw meal vertical milling
Raw meal roller pressing
Pulverized coal grinding
Coal ball milling
Coal vertical milling
Clinker sintering
Small-size new dry kiln
Middle-size new dry kiln
Large-size new dry kiln
Vertical kiln etc.
Cement grinding
Cement ball milling
Cement united grinding
Cement vertical milling
a

Technology ratio (%)a

Life span/yearb

Average energy consumptionc

25.0
45.0
30.0

3050
3050
3050

30 kWh/t raw meal

18 kWh/t raw meal
24 kWh/t raw meal

65.0
35.0

3050
3050

38 kWh/t pulverized coal

20 kWh/t pulverized coal

14.7
28.9
28.9
27.5

3050
3050
3050
1020

3800 kJ/kg
3400 kJ/kg
3200 kJ/kg
3500 kJ/kg

59.0
40.0
1.0

3050
3050
3050

3842 kWh/t cement

30 kWh/t cement
2530 kWh/t cement

clinker
clinker
clinker
clinker

Mainly cleared up from the survey data, including technical questionnaires of 200 NSP cement plants and interview with 3 cement design institutes.
From the consulting from some industrial experts and front-line works of cement plants.
Mainly from the The directory for advanced and applicable technologies of energy-saving and emission reduciton in building materials industry and some statistical data of
industry associations.
b
c

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Z. Wen et al. / Energy Policy 77 (2015) 227237

Table 4
Popularization rates of selected technologies under different technology policy environments.
No. Initial competition Control and command policies

Incentive-based policies

Elimination of back production capacity Constraints policy Policy on cost subsidies

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

D
D
D
D
D
D
A
A

A
D
D
A
D
D
A
A

D
A
A
D
B
D
A
A

Tax policy

10%

30%

50%

50 Yuan/t CO2 100 Yuan/t CO2 300 Yuan/t CO2

D
D
D
D
D
D
A
A

B
D
D
C
D
D
A
A

A
D
D
A
B
D
A
A

D
D
D
D
D
D
A
A

B
D
D
D
D
D
A
A

A
D
D
A
C
D
A
A

Note: A, B, C and D represent the changing trend and extent of the promotion popularization rate of technologies selected. A represents rising sharply, B represents
increasing slightly, C represents decreasing slightly, D represents decreasing sharply. The extent of sharply means that compared with 2010, the change to 2020 is
larger than 50%, and the extent of lightly means the change is below 50%. The numbers 18 represent the selected technologies as listed in Table 2 respectively.

stage and the others are at the growth stage.1 From an economic
perspective, the cost-benet level is the best driver to promote
technology under market competition conditions (Xu and Wang,
2006). Benet to cost ratios can be used to evaluate the costbenet level of technologies under consideration (Wen et al.,
2014a). The selected technologies and related energy conservation
and emissions mitigation effects are listed in Table 5.
From Table 5, we can see that the popularizing rate of all the
8 technologies analyzed is lower than 50%. Moreover, the benet
to cost ratio for most technologies is lower than 1 and often below
0.5. These show that those technologies can only be promoted
effectively with the support of suitable policies and economics.
Only technologies 7 and 8, with a benet to cost ratio higher than
1, have a strong promotion power and do not need special policy
supports.

2.4. Scenario denitions

In this section, we introduce three scenarios for which we
compare and analyze the potential for energy savings and emissions reductions by technology promotion. Scenarios were designed both with reference to the results of the simulation of
technology policies, and sectoral plans in China's cement industry.
The three scenarios, S1, S2 and S3, described in Table 6, represent
promotion technologies for energy savings and emissions reductions under different policy conditions separately. The S1 scenario
is a baseline scenario without any change except for the production scale. The S2 scenario mainly reects a situation of implementing many integrated policies and measures aimed at saving energy and reducing emissions. The industrial technical
structure and product structure have been adjusted according to
the policy development. The policy mainly refers to the 12th veyear plan of industrial energy saving and other industrial measures issued by government. The S3 scenario is also a policy scenario, very similar to the S2 scenario, but with a higher intensity
for policy implementation.

1
Similar to the logistic growth curve for microbes, the technology diffusion
process can be divided into four stages: technology growth period, technology
promotion period, technology maturity period and technology decline period,
which is in the shape of compounding and rising S (Lin, 2010; Rogers, 2003;
Brown, 1992). Of which, technology promotion mainly refers to technology in
promotion period substituting technology in decline period. Technologies in promotion stage are mainly focused on in this study.

3. Results
3.1. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions
The proposed AIM/end-use model has been run for three different scenarios. The predicted energy consumption and related
CO2 emissions in China cement industry are shown in Fig. 2.
Under Scenario S1, energy consumption increases from 166 million
tce to 192 million tce with an average annual growth rate of 1.51%,
while the related CO2 emissions rise is from 1540 million tons to
1790 million tons with a 1.64% growth rate. The increase is mainly
due to the upsurge in cement production. Compared with the iron
and steel industry in China, the correlation between CO2 emissions
and energy consumption in the cement industry is relatively
lower, and the CO2 emissions from the cement industry is much
more than for the equivalent energy consumption in the steel
industry (rge-Vorsatz and Novikova, 2008). This is mainly because there is a high level of CO2 emissions from the decomposition of calcium carbonate in the production process in addition to
emissions from the energy consumption process.
Under Scenario S2, as the structural adjustment of ring systems technology and main products are strengthened, along with
improvement in the popularizing rate afterwards, energy consumption and CO2 emissions decline after a brief rise. Energy
consumption would decline to 164 million tce in 2020 from
166 million tce in 2010, and CO2 emissions would descend from
1540 million tons to 1520 million tons. Under Scenario S3, energy
consumption and CO2 emissions begin to show a declining trend.
Furethermore, energy consumption would decline to 154 million
tce in 2020, while CO2 emissions would descend to 1430 million
tons during the same period.
3.2. Energy intensity and CO2 emission intensity
Under Scenario S1, the energy intensity and CO2 emissions intensity maintain their 2010 values of 0.089 tce/t cement and
0.825 t CO2/t cement shown in Fig. 3. The main cause is that there
is no change in technical structure and product structure in Scenario S1.
On the energy intensity front, under Scenario S2, the value
would decrease from 0.089 tce/t cement in 2010 to 0.075 tce/t
cement in 2020. In Scenario S3, it would decrease to 0.071 tce/t
cement in 2020. One of the goals in the 12th FYP for China's cement industry is to reduce energy consumption to 0.093 tce/t cement by 2015 (MIIT of PRC, 2011b), higher than the value in 2010
in this paper. Although there is no comparison between the given
goal and our results, we can see a trend of decline in Scenario S2,

Note: A represents technology promotion period; B represents technology growth period; PT represents production technology; TCURE technology for comprehensive utilization of resources and energy; PCT represents pollution
control technology. n is from the The directory for advanced and applicable technologies of energy-saving and emission reduciton in building materials industry and normalized. # is from the technology promotion statistics in the 2010
Industry Technology Directory. PI represents the policy on elimination of backward production technologies; PII represents the constraints policy; PIII represents the policy on cost subsidies; PIV represents the tax policy.

PI; PIII
PII;PIII;PIV
PII;PIII
PI;PII;PIV
PIII;PIV
PII;PIII;PIV
PII;PIII
PI;PII
0.81
0.20
0.25
0.70
0.60
0.45
1.25
5.00
35
10
10
5
40
20
35
1
9 kwh/t raw material
75 KJ/kg chamotte
80 KJ/kg chamotte
80 KJ/kg chamotte
8 kwh/t chamotte
10 kwh/t cement
0.2 kwh/t cement
1 kwh/t chamotte
PT
PT
PCT/TCURE
PT
PT
PT
PT
PT
A
B
B
A
A
B
A
A
Raw meal grinding process
Firing process
Firing process
Firing process
Cement grinding process
Entire process
Firing process
Entire process
Raw Material mill technology
Fixed grate cooler technology
Waste heat power generation technology
Multi-air combustion technology
Motor frequency conversion transformation
Combined grinding technology
Efcient separator technology
Solution of ERP (Enterprise Resource
Planning)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Technology feature Technology type Energy-saving and emission-reduction

effectsn
Application stage
No. Technology name

Table 5
Selected technologies and their related energy saving and emission reduction effects in China's cement industry.

popularizing rate (%)# Benet/Cost Applicable policies

Z. Wen et al. / Energy Policy 77 (2015) 227237

233

where energy consumption and CO2 emissions can be controlled

effectively with sufcient policy support. Furthermore, our analysis agrees with other research results (MIIT of PRC, 2012) that
suggest that the middle policy scenario can meet this energysaving goal, and decrease energy intensity to below 0.090 tce/t
cement.
Concerning CO2 emissions intensity, this descends to 0.701 t
CO2/t cement in 2020 from 0.825 t CO2/t cement in 2010 under
Scenario S2. This is mainly because many additional policies for
energy savings and emissions reduction have been implemented
under Scenario S2. At the same time, in Scenario S3, we can see a
signicantly sharper decline: the CO2 emissions intensity decreases to 0.659 t CO2/t cement in 2020 from 0.825 t CO2/t cement
in 2010.
Based on the Getting the Numbers Right (GNR) database of the
Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) (CSI, 2013), CO2 emissions
intensity in China is compared with other countries in Fig. 4. According to Fig. 4, it can be concluded that CO2 emissions intensity
in China is much lower than in the U.S. or Canada, close to the
world average level, and slightly higher than that of other developed nations, such as Germany and Austria. Although there was a
huge increase in CO2 emissions from China's cement industry in
the past few years, the direct CO2 emissions per ton of cement
decreased from 0.686 t in 2005 to 0.548 t in 2010, a drop of 20.1%
(Tsinghua University and ITIBMIC, 2012).
3.3. Potential for reduction of energy consumption and CO2
emissions
3.3.1. Potential for reduction in energy consumption
In this paper, the potential for reduction in energy consumption
and CO2 emissions mainly refers to the potential compared with
Scenario S1, listed in Table 7. The results show that the energysaving potential will gradually grow alongside the implementation
of the series of policy measures for energy consumption reduction.
The more energy-saving policies that are implemented, the greater
the energy consumption reduction potential. Under Scenario S2,
the energy-saving potential is 8.28% and 17.68% for 2015 and 2020
respectively. Under Scenario S3, the energy-saving potential
amounts to 18.83% and 25.32% in 2015 and 2020 respectively.
Compared with 2010, the energy consumption can be cut by
2 million tce and 12 million tce in 2020 respectively under S2 and
S3 scenarios, accounting for 1.2% and 7.23% of the energy consumption in 2010.
In this study, only two energy-saving approaches, namely the
promotion of energy-saving technologies and the adjustment of
industrial structure (products and technical), were considered for
reducing energy consumption in the cement industry. The proportion of energy-saving potential in China's cement industry
from the two approaches under S2 and S3 scenarios is shown in
Fig. 5. In contrast to China's iron and steel industry, the restructuring of the cement industry is still in progress. In 2010,
there was still 20% of backward productivity in the cement industry that should be eliminated urgently, and there is much room
for the adjustment of the cement production ratio. As Fig. 5 shows,
the energy-saving potential of technology promotion is roughly
comparable to that of structural changes under Scenario S2. After
further strengthening of the external policy environment, the
speed of energy-saving technology promotion increases sharply. In
Scenario S3, the potential for energy savings from technology
promotion is slightly more than that from structural changes of
the cement industry. The results show that structural changes and
technology promotion are both key approaches for reducing energy use in cement industry, and the energy saved by technology
promotion is a little greater than that saved by structural
adjustment.

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Z. Wen et al. / Energy Policy 77 (2015) 227237

Table 6
Scenario denitions.
Scenario name

Major assumptions

Key variables setting

S1: Baseline scenario

No further energy saving and emissions reduction policies will be implemented between 2010 and 2020. And the industrial structure
(technical structure and product structure), technology popularizing
rate and external policy environment will maintain the level in 2010.
Only the production scale of cement industry keeps the change. There
is no external policy elements should be set additionally
Several measures will be implemented in order to simulate the potential for energy saving and emissions reduction by technology promotion, such as elimination of vertical kiln before 2015, and elimination of small dry kiln and restricted technologies before 2020, setting
the constraints of energy consumption and emissions. In the economic
incentive measures, 16 technologies will be the priority to get cost
subsidies by 20%; while 7 and 8 technologies have the second priority
to obtain cost subsidies by 15%. The amount of carbon tax will be set as
50 Yuan/t CO2.
S3 scenario is very similar to S2 scenario but with a higher policy extent. For example, the elimination of outdated production capacity such
as vertical kiln, small dry kiln and restricted technologies, will be
completed before 2015. And the subsidies for cost will be increased to
20% of 7 and 8 technologies, and 25% of 16 technologies. The amount
of carbon tax will be set as 100 Yuan/t CO2.

The technical structure and the popularizing rate are seen in

Tables 1 and 2 respectively. The product structure sustains the value
of 2010: Portland cement (62.1%), Fly ashes-cement (1.9%) and Blast
furnace slag cement (36%) (MIIT of PRC, 2012).

S2: Integrated policies

scenario

S3: Strength policies

scenario

The product structure changes in 2015 and 2020 respectively as below: Portland cement (58%, 55%), Fly ashes-cement (4%, 6%) and Blast
furnace slag cement (38%, 39%). The industry technical structure and
popularizing rate will be simulated based on the external policy
environment in the AIM model.

The product structure changes in 2015 and 2020 respectively as below: Portland cement (55%, 50%), Fly ashes-cement (6%, 8%) and Blast
furnace slag cement (39%, 42%). The industry technical structure and
popularizing rate will be simulated based on the external policy
environment in the AIM model.

Note: Restricted technologies mainly refers to the technologies not included in industrial accession scope, but the technologies are not limited in the elimination list ruled
by government.

Fig. 2. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions forecasts for the cement industry
under different scenarios, 20102020.

Fig. 4. Comparison of typical per product CO2 emissions for different countries
from CSI in 2010. Note: total CO2 emissions does not include emissions from
biomass combustion, and net emissions refer to total CO2 emissions excluding
alternative fossil fuel combustion. These data have been gathered from enterprises
in the Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) with good quality data (CSI, 2013).
Table 7
The potential for energy savings and CO2 emissions reduction in China's cement
industry compared with Scenario S1.
Potential type

Energy savings (million tce/year)

CO2 emissions reduction (million tons CO2/year)

Fig. 3. Energy intensity and CO2 emissions intensity for China's cement industry
under different scenarios, 20102020.

S2

S3

2015

2020

2015

2020

14
128

29
268

29
267

39
361

3.3.2. Potential for CO2 emissions reduction

Table 7 displays the potential for CO2 emissions mitigation in
China's cement industry under Scenarios S2 and S3. The results
show that emission reduction effects will be amplied by the
implementation of a series of policies as planned for China's cement industry. Under Scenario S2, the potential for CO2 emission
reduction takes up 8.15% and 17.63% of the predicted CO2 emissions in 2015 and 2020 respectively. Under Scenario S3, the potential amounts to 18.67% of CO2 emissions in 2015. Even in 2020,
the potential for CO2 emission reduction reaches 25.24% of the
predicted CO2 emissions in Scenario S3. Compared with 2010, the

Z. Wen et al. / Energy Policy 77 (2015) 227237

235

Fig. 5. Potential for energy savings in China's cement industry under Scenarios S2 and S3 from technology promotion and structural adjustment.

absolute emissions reduction can reach 20 million tons CO2 and

110 million tons CO2 under Scenarios S2 and S3 respectively, accounting for 1.3% and 7.14% of CO2 emissions in 2010.
The CO2 emissions of the cement industry derive from energy
consumption and the decomposition of raw materials in the production process. Therefore, structural change is the most important approach to reduce CO2 emissions from the cement industry. CO2 emissions reduced by technology promotion are lower
than that from structural changes. However, if the enhanced external policies are implemented, the contribution to the CO2
emissions reduction of technology promotion will rise slightly, as
can be concluded from Fig. 6.

4. Discussion
Rapid urbanization and development have resulted in a boom in
the construction sector in China, increasing the demand for cement.
The growth of cement production is the most important factor
driving energy consumption and CO2 emissions upwards in China's
cement sector. The main drivers for rising production are market
reform of real estate beginning in 1998, and the dynamic development of the Chinese economy, with extensive infrastructure expansion. Under these conditions, it is practical and important to
make a prognosis for the development trends of energy saving and
emissions reduction policies in the cement industry.

The results in this study indicated that structural adjustment

and technology promotion are both key approaches for reducing
energy use in cement industry. And the potential for energy savings by technology promotion is a little greater than that by
structural adjustment. The potential for CO2 emissions reduction
from structural adjustment is larger than that from technology
promotion. Therefore, for the cement industry, structural adjustment and technology promotion should be reinforced simultaneously by energy-saving policies, and technology promotion
should be emphasized. The structural adjustment of the industry
should be further developed and improved with less demanding
emissions reduction policies.
We have compared the predicted data in 2012 with the real
data of China's cement industry in order to analyze the accuracy of
forecasting by AIM/end-use model. The data include the production yield, energy consumption and carbon emissions. According
to China statistical yearbook (NBSC, 2013), the production of cement in 2012 is 2210 million tons which is far above the predicted
value (1952 million tons) in 2012 and also higher than in 2020
(2171 million tons). The results show that the cement demand in
the rapid urbanization process is far more than expected. Nowadays, there is no ofcial statistical data of energy consumption and
CO2 emissions in China's cement industry in 2012, which are estimated by survey information and expert advice in this study. The
estimation value of energy consumption is up to 180.87 million tce
in 2012. This is higher than the predicted value (16,220 million

Fig. 6. Potentials for CO2 emissions reduction in China's cement industry under Scenarios S2 and S3 from technology promotion and structural adjustment.

236

Z. Wen et al. / Energy Policy 77 (2015) 227237

tce) in the S3 scenario, which is decided by large cement demands.

However, the CO2 emissions in 2012 is predicted to be up to
1350 million tons, much less than in S1 scenario (1610 million
tons). The comparative result shows that the cement production is
cleaner than before, which is due to cement industrial development such as industrial structure adjustment and the promotion of
energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies, and the strict
implementation of government policy such as the 12th ve-year
planning of industrial energy saving and so on.
According to the road map for emission reductions in the global
cement industry issued jointly by the Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), the four
main means for reducing CO2 emissions are energy efciency (heat
efciency and electricity efciency) improvements, alternative
fuels, clinker alternatives and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
The direct reduction potential from the above measures will contribute about 10%, 24%, 10% and 56% respectively in 2050 under the
assumption that CCS technology will be ready for commercial
applications after 2030 (IEA and WBCSD, 2009). Energy efciency
improvements should be implemented continuously, playing the
most important role in CO2 emission reduction. Alternative fuels
should be encouraged to substitute coal consumption. Considerable economic benets can be generated by the clinker alternatives with blast furnace slag (BFS), y ash and limestone. CCS
could become a very important technology in the cement industry
and the costs can be reduced in the early commercial, large-scale
application stage. It can contribute more signicantly to CO2 reduction, but the higer costs incurred may put off its application
(Wang et al., 2014). Currently, CCS technology has not yet been
commercialized in the industry, so the other three measures will
be the main means for saving energy and reducing CO2 emissions
in China's cement industry.
In addition, some other policies and measures are recommended for future energy conservation and CO2 emissions
reduction in China's cement industry (Tsinghua University and
ITIBMIC, 2012; Napp et al., 2014). First, the Chinese government
should develop policy tools to promote the use of the most energy
efcient technologies. For example, create a database of CSI to nd
performance gaps between the cement industry in China and
those in other countries; set minimum energy efciency standards, and then phase out those technologies that do not meet the
standards. Second, we should encourage and accelerate the use of
alternative fuels such as coal gangue and industrial waste to save
energy and reduce CO2 emissions. The share of alternative fuels for
clinker calcinations in 2010 reached about 31% in Europe and 60%
in Germany. In China, a legal framework should be created to
encourage the use of alternative fuels, give more publicity to the
effects on CO2 emissions mitigation from alternative fuels, and nd
specic research institutes and companies to develop the use of
alternative fuels in the cement industry. Thirdly, alternative clinkers should be encouraged to reduce CO2 emissions. Instead of
common hybrid materials, we can consider other materials like
limestone, phosphorus, aluminates, glasses, etc. Existing cement
standards should be revised to include energy intensity, setting
time and CO2 emissions per cement product instead of just ingredients. The European Union standards are a good framework to
follow. Lastly, innovative low-carbon cement should be vigorously
developed in the future, which can reduce more than 50% of the
CO2 emissions per unit of cement produced. Relevant building
codes and norms should be revised to accelerate the application of
low-carbon cement, since more than 80% of CO2 emissions from
the construction of buildings stems from cement production (Jiang
et al., 2012).

5. Conclusion and policy implications

The cement industry is the main contributor to energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China's manufacturing industries.
In this paper, the AIM/end-use model was used to simulate industrial technology promotion and its effects on the potential for
energy savings and CO2 emissions reduction in China's cement
industry. Scenario analysis results indicate that policy measures
and approaches can have a signicant effect on energy savings and
CO2 emissions mitigation for China's cement industry.
In Scenario S1, the average annual growth rates of energy
consumption and CO2 emissions are 1.51% and 1.64% respectively.
The relative energy consumption intensity and CO2 emissions intensity keep constant values as 0.089 tce/t cement and 0.825
t CO2/t cement. Compared with the base year 2010, the energy
consumption and CO2 emissions in 2020 can be cut down absolutely under the two policies scenarios (S2 and S3).
In terms of the potential for energy savings and emissions reduction, Scenarios S2 and S3 will save 29.0 and 39.0 million tons of
coal equivalents by 2020 and the related-CO2 emissions saved will
be 268.0 million tons CO2 and 361.0 million tons CO2 by 2020 separately. Technology promotion and industry structural adjustment
are almost equally important for saving energy. Structural adjustment is the most important approach to reducing CO2 emissions
from the cement industry; its proportion of potential for CO2
emissions reduction will continue to grow, exceeding 50% after 2016.
In the future, in order to reduce the CO2 emissions of China's
cement industry, more attention should be paid to the adjustment
of the industrial structure, including technical structure and product structure. The main measures include elimination of vertical
kilns, small dry kilns, improving the technology ratio of the largesize new dry kilns in the ring process as soon as possible, and
raising the product proportion of y ashes-cement and blast furnace slag cement.
Additionally, technology promotion approaches should also be
focused on in order to save energy consumption in China's cement
industry. Control and command policies and incentive-based policies should be implemented to promote the signicant energysaving and emission-reduction technologies, such as raw material
mill technology in the raw material grinding process; xed grate
coolers, waste heat power generation, multi-air combustion and
efcient separator technologies in the ring process; motor frequency conversion transformation technologies in the cement
grinding process; and combined grinding technologies and the
solution of ERP in the entire process.

Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge funding by the National
Key R&D Program (Nos. 2009BAC65B14 and 2012BAC20B10) and
the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, No.
2010CB955903) from Ministry of Science and Technology of the
People's Republic of China. The responsibility for any errors rests
solely with the authors.

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