EQUITY RESEARCH

PremierInsight
R

17 October 2012

Corporates
JCI Index
4,400

7,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

4,200

JCI

4,000,000,000
3,800
3,000,000,000
3,600

Volume (shares)

5,000,000,000
4,000

2,000,000,000
3,400

1,000,000,000

3,200
1- Jan 21- Jan10-Feb 1- Mar 21- Mar10- Apr30-Apr20-May 9- Jun 29-Jun

ADHI: Adhi Karya (ADHI) is eying some power plants and monorail project.
According to the companys management, ADHI is currently working on PLNs
2x25MW power plant with total value of Rp2t-2.5t, that will be financed the
projects with Rp750b bond issuance. ADHI will also start the construction of
Grand Kalimas, a mixed use property which will consist of apartment, hotel,
shop houses and offices. For the monorail projects, ADHI will discuss with the
provincial government of Jakarta. ADHI expects to have 10% stake in the
monorail project. (Kontan)
BTPN: Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional 9M12 result is inline with our
estimate as NI reached 78% of our FY12 target. Further details will be
provided later today.

9M11

9M12

yoy

2Q12

3Q12

qoq

3,287

4,367

33%

1,457

1,597

10%

139

207

49%

79

71

-10%

1,616

2,172

34%

711

795

12%

321

366

14%

114

140

23%

1,295

1,806

39%

597

655

10%

Net income

959

1,442

50%

481

521

8%

EPS

164

247

50%

82

89

8%

39%

8%

Nii (Net interest income)

Non int income (expense)
Closing
4,329
3,402
3,319
369
3,845

JCI
Transaction value (Rp b)
Transaction volume (mn shares)
Foreign net buy (sell) (Rp b)
Total market cap (Rp t)

PPOP
Provision
Operating Profit

Key Indexes
Index

Closing

1 day
return

1 year
return

YTD
return

JCI
LQ45
FSSTI
SET
HSI
NKY
FTSE
DJI

4,329
750
3,047
1,287
21,207
8,701
5,871
13,552

0.4%
0.5%
0.1%
-0.2%
0.3%
1.4%
1.1%
1.0%

16.1%
13.4%
9.6%
32.5%
12.4%
-2.0%
7.4%
16.4%

13.3%
11.4%
15.1%
25.6%
15.0%
3.9%
5.4%
10.9%

Indicators

Latest

2012F

BI Rate (%)
Inflation (%)
Govt Bond Yield (10yr %)

5.75%
4.31%
5.78%

5.75%
4.56%

BVPS

887

1,232

1,143

1,232

NIM

12.7%

13.0%

12.9%

13.0%

LDR

87.0%

87.0%

86.0%

87.0%

NPL

0.9%

0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

Source: IndoPremier

Macro Indicators

Exchange Rates
Currency
USD/IDR
SGD/IDR
GBP/IDR
HKD/IDR
EUR/IDR

Last price
9,598
7,859
15,450
1,238
12,483

Ret 1 day Ret 1 year

(%)
(%)
-0.26%
-0.23%
-0.04%
-0.25%
0.08%

8.85%
13.55%
10.32%
9.23%
1.84%

Commodity price
Commodities
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI)
CPO/tonne
Soy/bushel
Rubber/kg
Nickel/tonne
Tins/tonne
Copper/tonne
Gold/try.oz (Spot)
Coal/tonne*
Corn/bushel
Wheat/bushel**
* : 1 week change
**: 1 month change
Source : Bloomberg

Last price
92.1
830.0
15.3
3.3
16,859
21,555
8,122
1,748
80.6
7.3
349.4

Ret 1 day Ret 1 year

(%)
(%)
0.3%
0.3%
-1.7%
-0.5%
-1.0%
1.9%
0.3%
0.6%
-3.4%
-2.1%
1.1%

6.1%
-17.4%
27.2%
-24.7%
-10.5%
-1.0%
7.8%
4.6%
-32.9%
21.5%
6.8%

SGRO: Sampoerna Agro (SGRO) is optimistic to plant 5k -10k ha new area of

palm oil in this year due to conducive weather condition. The company has
planted 2.1k ha area until 6M12. Past years, SGRO have planted average 5k
ha each year. The total planted area of SGRO has reached 105k ha where 75%
or 78,750 ha are mature area and 26,250 ha area immature area. (Kontan)
Comment: SGROs total production of CPO has dropped 24.3% yoy to 135k
tons in 6M12. We have revised down our forecast to a flat production growth in
this year to only 0.8% yoy for FY12 with the expectation of higher CPO
production in the 2H12. Our target price for SGRO is Rp3,180 implying 10.8x
FY13E P/E.
LPKR: Lippo Karawaci (LPKR) is conducting a debt exchange offer with
respects to its US$395.608m 9% Guaranteed Notes due 2015. LPKR will be
issuing new US dollars denominated Senior Fixed notes due 2020 (New
Notes) to exchange any or all of the 2015 Notes. The coupon of the New
Notes will be announced on 22 Oct12. Holders of 2015 Notes can exchange
US$1,000 in principal amount for US$1,077.5 (pre 26 Oct12) or US$1,062.5
(post 26 Oct12).
LPKR has also issued US$100m, 7 year Global Senior Notes. Moodys, S&P and
Fitch rated the bond at B1, BB- stable, BB- stable respectively. The issue was
priced at 105.25%, implying a yield of 5.879%. Demand from investors was
overwhelming and the issue was 8.4x oversubscribed. The proceeds will be
used for Hospital, Retail Mall expansion and general corporate purposes.
(Investor Daily, Company Press Release)

1
Refer to important disclosures on the last of this report

PremierInsight

SSIA: Surya Semesta (SSIA) is preparing to develop a 30ha commercial

project in Karawang. Rp300b capital is required for the construction of project
in early 2013. The project includes 1 office tower, a 3 star hotel (190 rooms)
and recreational areas. The construction of the building is expected to last for
12 months. There will be 10,000sqm of rental space for the office and starting
rental rate is approx. US$10/sqm/month. As for the retail areas, it will be
leased out at Rp130,000/sqm/month. (Kontan)

Markets and Sectors

Automotive sector: Indonesia Motorcycle Association (AISI) stated the sales
target of 10m units motorcycle can be achieved in 2015 instead of 2012. AISI
has revised the sales target 2 times from 10m units to 8.6m units and finally
to 7.1m units. Actually, the sales target of 10m units is supposed to be
achieved in 2012 considering strong economic growth and installed production
capacity of industry that reach 9m units per year, plus some other expansion
plan of some motorcycle producers. However, the growth of the motorcycle
sales is hampered by the new LTV regulation and fiduciary assurance plan.
(Bisnis Indonesia)
Banking sector: Bank Indonesia (BI) governor dismisses concerns over
decline in Aug 12 loan growth. He said that the loan growth in Aug12 of 23.6%
yoy is still within BIs target. The governor added that the decline was not
something to be worried about and it is still in line with the increased
investment that was necessary for the economy to grow. Indonesian banks
loan growth reached this year peak in May12 at 26.3% yoy. The decline in
Aug12 was due to the slowdown in working capital loan (+23.2% yoy), while
investment and consumer loan were relatively stable at 29.8% and 19.9% yoy.
(Jakarta Post).
Electricity sector: PLN targets 5,000MW additional generating capacity in
2013 with investment of US$9.6b. The investment is urgent to achieve 91%
electrification ratio by 2019 (current electrification ratio is only 71%). From the
required investment amount, PLN will contribute Rp60t, government Rp9.6t
and the rest by private sector. 60% of the total investment will be used to add
new generating capacity and the rest for transmission network expansion. Few
sizeable projects have been initiated to response this, i.e. Rp15t 2,000MW
power plant by Tenaga Nasional Berhad and PTBA and US$638m 3x142MW by
China Huadian group (Investor Daily).
Comment: PLN has really not much option in regards of anticipating 6.5% of
economic growth going forward, except to accelerate new generating capacity
addition and intensify transmission and distribution network. Our electrification
ratio is also very low compared to other Asean and emerging countries
(Phiilipines at 90% and Vietnam at 98%). An opportunity may be found in Indo
cable companies as transmission and distribution investment will mean higher
demand for cable products.

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Research
Agus Pramono, CFA

Head of Research, Banking, Automotive and Cement

agus.pramono@ipc.co.id

Alice Lie

Property

alice.lie@ipc.co.id

Handoko Wijoyo

Energy and Telecommunication

hwijoyo@ipc.co.id

Jovent Giovanny

Banking and Small Cap

jovent.giovanny@ipc.co.id

Willy Gunawan

Plantation and Consumer

willy.g@ipc.co.id

Seto Wardono

Senior Economist

seto.wardono@ipc.co.id

Ikhsan Binarto

Technical

ikhsan.binarto@ipc.co.id

Muhammad Wafi

Technical

wafi@ipc.co.id

Dang Maulida

Fixed Income

dang.maulida@ipc.co.id

Dedikasi Sitorus

Fixed Income

dedikasi.sitorus@ipc.co.id

Institutional Equity & Private Client

Benny Soebagjo

benny.soebagjo@ipc.co.id

Angkula Ruriawan

angkula.ruriawan@ipc.co.id

Henry Sutanto

henry.sutanto@ipc.co.id

INVESTMENT RATINGS
Buy : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
Hold: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
Sell : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities
or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed
in the report.
DISCLAIMER: This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept
any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared
for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the
particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell
any securities. PT. Indo Premier Securities or its affiliates may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the
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