SMRE

Homework 1
Failure Models; Qualitative Analysis
Derek Geiger
DSES-6070
Problem 1
Derive expressions for the cummulative failure distribution function, the failure
probability density function the survivor/reliability function and the hazard function for
the following functions:
a.- Exponential
b.- Weibull
c.- Lognormal
d.- Gamma
e.- Gumbell
Hint: See Tables 2.1 (p. 20) and 2.2 (p. 64) in your text.

Define:

Cumulative failure distribution function = F(t)

Failure probability density function = f(t)
Survivor/ reliability function = R(t)
Hazard function = z(t)

(a) Exponential
f (t ) = e t
F (t ) = e t dt = 1 e t
t

R(t ) = 1 F (t ) = e t

f (t ) e t
z (t ) =
=
=
R(t ) e t

(b) Weibull
f (t ) =

( t

F (t ) = 1 e (t )

R(t ) = 1 F (t ) = e (t )

f (t ) t 1e (t )
z (t ) =
=
= t 1

(
)
R(t )
e

(c) Lognormal
2
2
1
f (t ) =
e (ln t ) 2
2 t
ln t
F (t ) = 1

ln t
R(t ) =

ln t

t
f (t )

z (t ) =
=
R(t )
ln t



(d) Gamma

f (t ) =

(k )

F (t ) =

(t )k 1 e t

(k )

(t )

k 1

k 1

(t )

n=0

n!

R(t ) = 1 F (t ) =

z (t ) =

n =0

(e) Gumbell
t
f (t ) = e t e e
F (t ) = 1 e e

R(t ) = e e
f (t )
z (t ) =
= et
R(t )
t

dt = 1

n =0

e t

(t )k 1 e t

f (t ) (k )
=
k 1
R(t )
(t )n

k 1

n!

e t

(t )n e t
n!

Problem 2
A type of safety valve exhibits exponentially distributed failure times. A field-study has
produced a value of mean time to failure (MTTF) for the valve of 2345 days.
a.- Determine the valve failure rate.
b.- Determine the probability that the valve will survive for 1000 days without
failing.
c.- Write down expressions for the survival function and the hazard rate function
for the valve and comment.
(a) Valve failure rate
1
MTTF = = 2345

z (t ) = =

1
1
=
= 0.0004264 / day
MTTF 2345
(b) Probability valve survives for 1000 days without failure
R(1000) = e 0.0004264*1000 = 0.6529
Therefore the probability that the safely valve will survive for 1000 days is 65.3%
(c) Expressions for survival function and hazard functions
Survival function: R(t ) = e 0.0004264t
Hazard function: z (t ) = 0.0004264

The survival function decays exponentially with a rate of 1/MTTF, while the
hazard function is nothing more than 1/MTTF.

Problem 3
A set consisting of 22 Ball Bearings has been subjected to a tribological failure test. The
time to failure of each bearing (in cycles) have been collected and the values are as
follows:

Use the MINITAB software to answer the following questions:

a) Compute descriptive statistics for the data,
b) Construct the histogram,
c) Find good-fitting distributions to the data,
d) Select the best-fitting distribution(s) and determine the distribution parameters
and confidence intervals.
e) Use the parameter values of the best-fitting distribution to determine analytical
expressions for the failure probability distribution function, the survival probability
function, the failure rate (hazard) function, the MTTF and the MRL for the bearings.
(a) Descriptive statistics for bearing data
Variable N N* Mean
SE Mean StDev Minimum
Q1
Median
Q3
Maximum
TTF
22 0 72387273 8178927 38362570 17880000 44730000 61680000 100260000 173400000

(b) Histogram of data

Histogram of TTF
9
8

Frequency

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

0
2

0
00
0
0
50

0
50

00
00

0
0
75

00
00

00
00

0
10
TTF

00
12

0
00
0
0
50

15

00

00
00

0
5
17

00
00

00

(c) Best fitting distribution

In the figure below, either a Lognornal or Weibull bests explains the data. For this
problem chose Weibull.
Probability Plot for TTF
LSXY Estimates-Complete Data
Weibull

Lognormal
99
90

50

P er cent

P er cent

90

10

50
10

10000000

1
10000000

100000000
TTF
E xponential

100000000
TTF
Loglogistic

99
90

50

P er cent

P er cent

90

10

50
10

1000000

10000000

TTF

100000000

1000000000

1
10000000

100000000
TTF

C orrelation C oefficient
Weibull
0.984
Lognormal
0.990
E xponential
*
Loglogistic
0.991

(d) Best fitting distribution with distribution parameters and confidence intervals
Parameter values for Weibull are:

= 2.194
=

1
= 1.2325E 08
81133682

These parameters were determined from the plot below. Also, the 95% CI can be
seen on the plot.
Probability Plot for TTF
Weibull - 95% CI
Complete Data - LSXY Estimates
99

Table of S tatistics
S hape
2.19377
S cale
81133682
M ean
71853417
S tDev
34565213
M edian
68650477
IQ R
48181115
F ailure
22
C ensor
0
A D*
1.021
C orrelation
0.984

90

Percent

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
3
2
1

10000000

100000000
TTF

(e) Analytical expressions for the Weibull

2.194
Failure probability distribution function = F (t ) = 1 e (1.2325e 08t )

Survival probability function = R (t ) = e (1.2325e 08t )

f (t )
Failure rate function = z (t ) =
= 9.73695E - 18t 1.194
R(t )
2.194

MTTF = e (1.2325e 08t )

2.194

dt = 7.185540387E + 07

MRL =

1
e (1.2325e 08t )

2.194

e
0

(1.2325 e 08 ( t = x ) )2.194

dx

Problem 4
Aircraft sent to battlefield missions in desertic environments exhibit unexpected early
failures. Research aircraft engine failures encountered in such situations to answer the
following:
a.- Construct an Event Tree with the initiating event being the specific failure that
ultimately leads to aircraft engine malfunction (e.g. Fig. 3.23, p. 110, text).
b.- Construct a Fault Tree that could have helped predict malfunctions (e.g. Fig.
3.19, p. 102, text).
c.- Construct a FMECA worksheet (e.g. Fig. 3.13, p. 89, text) that could have
helped prevent malfunctions.
(a) Event Tree

Instead of concentration on engines, an Event Tree was created for a case of main
rotor and tail rotor servos. This is for a generic type of failure. No known percentage
for each case is know.

Initiating Event

FCC Detect.

FCC Adjustment

Warning Display.

Loss of A/C Ctrl

A/C Crash

Outcomes

Safe Landing

Y
N

Safe Landing

Y
Y
Y
N
N
Servo Failure

Y
N
N

Fatality

No Fatality

Fatality

No Fatality

Fatality

No Fatality

Fatality

No Fatality

Fatality

No Fatality

Fatality

No Fatality

Y
N
N

(b) Fault Tree

For this generic servo failure a fault tree was developed.

A/C Crash

A/C Structure

Human Error

Severe Weather

Structure

Power

Lines

Material

Design

Manufacturing

Ballistic Strike

Hydraulic System

Servo

Operation

Pump

Fluid

Maintenance

Control System

(c) FMECA Worksheet

Description of Unit

Description of Failure

Effect of Failure

Part

Function

Failure
Mode

Failure
Cause

Detection of
Failure

On the
Subsyste
m

On the
System
Function

Servos

Changes
the
swasphpla
te
orientation

1 or 2
stages not
moving

Ballistic hit

FCC

Hydraulic
system

Maintenance

Limited
swashplat
e range of
motion

Degrade
d aircraft
controlla
bility,
leading
to
possible
loss of
A/C
controlla
bility

Failure
Rate

Severity
Ranking

Risk
Reducing
Measures

Comment
s

<1x10-9

10

Redundan
cy

Rare
event, but
can be a
catastroph
ic if more
than 1
servo
stage fails

Enhanced
detection
capability
Improved
hydraulic
system
reliability