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DWA 2008 Q1 Earnings Call Transcript
DWA 2008 Q1 Earnings Call Transcript
As we have seen with similar titles, we now expect Shrek The Third to move into a catalog
like performance pattern. However, as we saw with the first two chapters of Shrek, we
believe that well have several opportunities to sell additional home video units through
events specific to the Shrek franchise, including programs around Shrek The Musical on
Broadway, Shrek The Halls on DVD, and Shrek Goes Fourth in theaters in 2010.
Next up for DreamWorks Animation is Kung Fu Panda which opens in theaters domestically
on June 6th. Creatively, we are pleased with the film. I think it strikes the right balance of
comedy and emotion, a formula that makes family animation memorable and special.
While it certainly is aimed at our core audience, the films action sequences combined with
the talent of Jack Black as the lovable, funny, and charismatic Po the Panda, provides
something for everyone. Once again this summers theatrical schedule is packed with many
blockbuster franchise films, so Kung Fu Panda will compete not only with other family
product but also a number of other significant event films that will be released in the same
time frame. But we think we have something unique to offer family audiences in Kung Fu
Panda and are excited to see how it performs on June 6th.
Aside from that, we have a number of other projects to look forward to in the remainder of
2008. Shrek The Musical makes its world premiere in Seattle this August and its Broadway
debut on December 14th for the holiday season. With a strong creative team and a first-rate
cast, we continue to be pleased with the projects progress and look forward to seeing it on
stage this summer.
On November 7th, our fall theatrical release, Madagascar: Escape to Africa, opens
domestically in theaters. The film reunites us with a complete cast from the from the storys
first chapter and introduces us to a host of exciting new characters.
After the sequel, we look forward to building on our franchise with our Penguins TV series on
Nickelodeon in early 2009. So its a busy time, both with our core business and our new
initiatives. We are hopeful that this is the start of a successful year for DreamWorks
Animation.
Before we take your questions, I will turn things over to Lew for a few comments. Lew.
Lewis W. Coleman
Thank you, Jeffrey. Good afternoon, everyone. I would like to briefly highlight a few items
before we take your questions. In the first quarter, the company reported total revenue of
$157 million, resulting in net income of $26 million, or $0.28 per share on a fully diluted
basis. Revenue was mainly driven by the companys 2007 releases, Bee Movie and Shrek
The Third.
Bee Movie contributed $149 million of revenue from both continued international box office
and its release into the domestic home video market on March 11th. The majority of the
home video revenue from international territories will impact the second quarter due to the
international release schedule.
Based on our current expectations, including its upcoming performance in the international
home video markets, we expect that Bee Movie will be a profitable film for the company.
However, at its anticipated revenue level, we do not believe that the title will have a
material impact on the companys earnings going forward due to its high expense
amortization rate.
The other major revenue driver in the quarter was Shrek The Third, which contributed $48
million, primarily from international home video. Through the first quarter, the film recorded
19.8 million units shipped worldwide net of actual returns and estimated future returns.
Library and other titles contributed $19 million of revenue in the quarter, primarily driven by
continued catalog home video.
Earnings for the remainder of the year will be largely determined by the performance of
Kung Fu Panda, which as Jeffrey mentioned opens in the U.S. on June the 6th. As you know,
because we do not recognize revenue for a title from our distributor until after they have
recouped their up-front marketing and distribution costs, it is possible that we will not
receive significant revenue from Paramount until the film is released in home video in the
fourth quarter.
Our fall film, the sequel to Madagascar, is scheduled for release on November 7th. Again,
because our distributor takes sufficient revenues to recover its costs up-front, we do not
expect to see significant revenue from this film until 2009.
Finally, I would like to update everyone on our share repurchase program. Year-to-date, the
company has repurchased approximately $88 million, or 3.7 million shares at an average
price of approximately $24 per share, and we have approximately $62 million remaining
under our current authorization.
With that, wed be happy to take your questions.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question today comes from the line of Ingrid Chung with
Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Operator
From the line of Barton Crockett, J.P. Morgan.
Barton Crockett - J.P. Morgan
Thanks for taking the question. I guess first I was wondering on the library and other line
item, that $19 million number in the quarter, is that a reasonable number to take as kind of
a quarterly run-rate as we look to the balance of the year?
Jeffrey Katzenberg
Lew.
Lewis W. Coleman
Barton, I think -- Im just trying to -- the library has got Shrek 1 and 2 in it, which turned out
to be strong performers because of the Shrek 3 release. And that would be the only thing I
would be cautious about if I was to take out my ruler and project it going forward.
Barton Crockett - J.P. Morgan
Okay. All right, so maybe a little bit higher than what we see later -- and then the second
thing is on the Bee Movie DVD. Can you give us -- I know you cant quantify this but should
we in general assume that there was a meaningful HD-DVD payment in that number in the
quarter?
Lewis W. Coleman
I think weve said in the past that we would rather not comment on that, and I think we will
probably stick with that comment, Barton.
Jeffrey Katzenberg
Other than to say that weve amortized -- I mean, its in the overall amortization.
Lewis W. Coleman
Yeah, its in the overall amortization, obviously, and weve amortized -- the Bee Movie, Im
not sure, were probably 60% amortized.
Barton Crockett - J.P. Morgan
Okay.
Lewis W. Coleman
Roughly, so it is sitting in there but beyond that, we probably would not give you an amount.
Barton Crockett - J.P. Morgan
Okay, and than a final question here and then Ill step aside; can you give us a sense of how
you feel currently about the pace of the negotiations between the studios and the theaters
for digital projectors and your comfort now in having the number of screens youd like to see
for Monsters vs. Aliens in March for 3D?
Jeffrey Katzenberg
I think that probably in the last 30 days, things have not progressed as well as I had hoped,
expected, and frankly been committed to by all the parties involved. You know, its ongoing
as we speak, literally now. But in terms of getting the big three on board and actively
moving forward, I feel as though things have dragged along and its been pretty
disappointing.
That said, its not a tactical flaw or issue for us yet but Im not very happy with how
everybody has handled themselves in the last 30 days.
Barton Crockett - J.P. Morgan
Do you have any hope that this will turn around quickly or is it still -Jeffrey Katzenberg
Well, the answer is yes and they have to, but its just the rate of the way this is getting done
has been bureaucratic would be the nice way to put it.
Barton Crockett - J.P. Morgan
All right. Thanks a lot.
Rich Sullivan
Thanks, Barton. Next question, please.
Operator
From Richard Greenfield with Pali. Please go ahead.
Richard Greenfield - Pali Research
A couple of questions; one, Madagascar you cited as one of the strong, uniquely strong
performers in the quarter. Could you give us a sense, with another film coming out later this
year, what are the DVD sales now up to for Madagascar, and any sense of just how
significant it actually was in DVD unit sales over the course of the last quarter, or even the
last couple of quarters?
And then two, just in terms of Penguins, Jeffrey, you mentioned that its coming out on
Nickelodeon the beginning of 09. Is this something that is immediately revenue accretive or
profit accretive or is this something that takes time until it gets into a later stage of life like
DVD for you actually to participate in terms of profitability? Thanks.
Jeffrey Katzenberg
Ill do the TV show first and then you guys can talk about the Madagascar units. I dont think
you will see any immediate impact, financial impact from it. As you said, it will come over a
period of time. Probably the thing that it will have the greatest benefit to will be our overall
licensing and merchandising campaign for the Madagascar franchise as a whole. So that will
be the first place in which we will see in success some immediate value and impact, and
then from the show itself, it will roll out over a longer period of time.
Lew, do you want to talk about the -Lewis W. Coleman
Rich, on the DVD units on Madagascar, we stopped disclosing the actual DVD units at the
end of last year but if you want to think of a total in terms of more or less about 25 million
units, you are probably right.
Richard Greenfield - Pali Research
And Jeffrey, if you could just follow-up and comment on from the standpoint of the Penguin
release on Nickelodeon, how is that going to be tied in thematically to what the actual
feature release in November?
Jeffrey Katzenberg
Really I think you should look at them as two very separate events, sequential and probably
adding value and building towards. So the way to look at it is that you will have the movie
rollout in November with a pretty strong licensing campaign behind it. Then the TV show will
probably come on the air in the sort of mid first quarter and lead into the DVD release in the
spring.
So weve been really trying to do a good job of aligning these things in a really nice kind of
sequential and complementary way to one another and think that they will add value to one
another. Penguins have a prominent and a very funny role in the movie itself in the second
chapter, so it seems like it is lined up in a pretty good way.
Richard Greenfield - Pali Research
Thanks.
Rich Sullivan
Thanks, Rich. Next question, please.
Operator
A question from the line of Drew Crum with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead.
Drew Crum - Stifel Nicolaus
Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. Maybe I can start with the free cash flow -- you
generated about $100 million in the quarter. I know you are not giving guidance on that
metric but can you just give us a sense as to how we should expect that metric to trend
through the balance of the year?
Lewis W. Coleman
Its a hard question. The easy answer is it is going to be somewhat lumpy. In the first
quarter, we paid studio bonuses. It was a fairly large amount out of our cash flow. We also
purchased the -- repurchased the shares I mentioned and paid taxes. Those items are
probably from a cash standpoint, you wont see those items again until next year.
Conversely, we have a couple of quarters now where we dont have a lot of film activity that
will generate revenue from our distributors, so most of the revenue -- most of the cash,
excuse me, left will be coming in closer to the fourth quarter than in the third quarter or the
second quarter.
So it is going to be a bit lumpy out there, fewer disbursements and fewer cash revenues
from our distributor over the next couple of quarters, with sort of a reasonable make-up in
the fourth quarter.
Drew Crum - Stifel Nicolaus
Okay, thanks. Thats helpful. And Jeffrey, maybe you can comment on 3D screens in foreign
territories. Where are we now, what the current pace looks like, and what your expectations
are for Monsters vs. Aliens?
Jeffrey Katzenberg
You know, the pace has picked up there. There are a couple of significant players in the
international market have come on board and actually placed orders for a meaningful rollout
this year. They are probably close to -- I think I discussed this last call. I think the U.K. is
looking at like 500, 600 screens. France has now come in and there are a couple of
meaningful orders places, or about to be placed. Canada looks pretty strong, and the rate of
it is picking up.
It is interesting. Brazil had an opening on the Hannah Montana movie this last weekend and
just had -- they had five screens there and the business was just absolutely blockbuster and
I got e-mails from exhibitors there saying this is what we needed to -- you know, sort of proof
of concept for them. So I think it is starting to happen but again, it will lag behind the U.S.
Drew Crum - Stifel Nicolaus
Okay, and one last question -- the Shrek Musical in 2008, should we expect any meaningful
contributions from that initiative?
Jeffrey Katzenberg
No.
Drew Crum - Stifel Nicolaus
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Rich Sullivan
Thanks, Drew. Next question, please.
Operator
David Miller with SMH Capital, please go ahead.
David Miller - Sanders Morris Harris
Congratulations on the results. Just a general question about the pay TV frame -- when I look
at the revenue composition of some of your films in the home video frame relative to
domestic box office, that tail over the last couple of years seems to have shortened
somewhat. Obviously that may have to do with the overall maturation of the marketplace
but it seems like, and correct me if Im wrong here, but it seems like that delta, if you will,
has been easily made up for by the pay TV frame, which is pretty flush for you guys. And Im
wondering, does that have to do with the overall expansion of certain international markets
in the pay TV frame that you guys are exploiting very nicely, or is there something about this
genre of film that now plays better in the pay TV frame more than it used to? Thanks very
much.
Jeffrey Katzenberg
I am genuinely for the life of me not sure I know how to answer your question, but I think
what I would say is that in terms of the television -- you know, pay and free TV television,
these are in almost every instance are long-term output deals and are consistent. And so
there really hasnt been any meaningful change in that, so Im not sure that all answers
come back to the video market itself as opposed to somehow or another being tied to the
television release.
Lewis W. Coleman
David, I think you may be seeing some foreign exchange effects.
Jeffrey Katzenberg
Well, there you go. That would answer it.
David Miller - Sanders Morris Harris
Okay, Lew, if I could just talk to you offline about that, that would be great. Thanks.
Rich Sullivan
Next question, please.
Operator
From the line of Tuna Amobi with Standard & Poors Equity Group. Please go ahead.
Tuna Amobi - Standard & Poors
Thank you very much. If I can stay on that 3D theme for a moment here, Im just trying to
understand -- is it fair to assume that all of your upcoming 3D releases, starting with
Monsters, is going to be day-and-date with 2D as well?
Jeffrey Katzenberg
potential savings that was originally anticipated, how much of that has been realized and
how do you assess the potential realization of whatever amount might be outstanding on
that?
(Multiple Speakers)
Lewis W. Coleman
I think I can cover three-quarters of your question. As youll recall in 2004, which I think is
sort of the first part of your question, we essentially wrote up the assets of the company as a
part of the going public transaction with Vulcan and we wrote it up about $1.5 billion.
The $1.5 billion translates through our books in two places. One is in tax savings and the
other is in a payable to our shareholder, Vulcan, Paul Allen. And the difference between
those two is actually our real taxes and the benefit to us net of those two things is about
$0.02. If we maintain our current earnings rate, you can anticipate that that $0.02 will be
available more or less every year between now and 15 years from 2004. So we have another
10, 11 years worth of pretty constant benefits.
Obviously if we earn a lot more money, we can use it up a little faster and if we dont earn
money, we arent going to use it up as fast. But if you think of it as a steady state, there is a
net $0.02 there that is pretty permanent, at least another 10 years.
Tuna Amobi - Standard & Poors
In terms of the seasonality of that $0.02, do you see most of that occurring in a certain half
or quarter? Is there any trend there that can -Lewis W. Coleman
No, there is no real trend within a year, because essentially our tax provision sort of
estimates that anyway for the year. And I think for the purposes of the next three or four or
five years, I would assume pretty high degree of confidence that the $0.02 net is there.
Obviously if our earnings fluctuate a lot it will change and at the end of the five-year period,
it is quite likely we will have another five years of approximately the same benefit.
Tuna Amobi - Standard & Poors
Thats helpful. Thank you very much.
Rich Sullivan
Next question, please.
Operator
Michael Morris with UBS, please go ahead.
Michael Morris - UBS
Thank you. On your balance sheet, it seems like you have enough cash receivables to meet
both the cushion that you want, cover the remainder on the share repurchase plan and have
some left over. Given that youve had an incremental disclosure in your last K that
acquisitions could impact the operating results, is there any reason to believe that you are
not looking at potential acquisitions? And also, are there any particular businesses that you
feel you can excel in with your content base and expertise? Thanks.
Lewis W. Coleman
Obviously we dont comment on acquisitions or on our acquisition posture. Its a difficult
thing to comment on because we would have to update it too often, and this is fairly volatile
kind of activity.
I will say broadly that we are always on the lookout to do something to extend our basic IP in
new markets and at times, we may decide to do that internally and at times we may decide
to partner it and at times we may decide to do it externally.
So if you were to anticipate something down the road, I would be inclined to think very hard
about things that extend our existing IP. It depends obviously on the circumstances at the
time.
We dont have a tendency to build a war chest, nor do we have a tendency to let this cash
burn a hole in our pocket. We are fairly happy with our liquidity position but we are obviously
careful, given the nature of the credit markets and given the nature of liquidity today.
Michael Morris - UBS
Would you consider something like a special dividend then say if Kung Fu Panda or the
Madagascar sequel were to outperform your expectations?
Lewis W. Coleman
Thats a matter that has to be taken up by the board.
Michael Morris - UBS
Okay. Thank you.
Rich Sullivan
Thanks, Mike. Next question, please.
Operator
The next question is from the line of Doug Creutz with Cowen & Company.
Doug Creutz - Cowen & Company
Could you talk about given that sequels have a little bit higher cost base due to [inaudible],
whats the box office level at which you start to think that a sequel looks attractive versus
producing another original movie? Thanks.
Jeffrey Katzenberg
You know, this is an art, not a science. I think there are a lot of things that we look at in
terms of the potential of a sequel. A lot of it depends on starting with the creative side of it,
which is the story that sort of has natural continuing chapters and stories to it. Some of our
movies have had them, some of them have now. And Madagascar clearly -- you know, the
New York Zoo animals were not meant to stay on the island of Madagascar and that was
really -- we knew that from the outset making that movie and it is following its natural
progression.
There is no magic number here in terms of if it hits X, then thats the answer we need to
move forward. But there is no question that we see a lot of value for the two franchises we
have and we would love to find a third.
Doug Creutz - Cowen & Company
All right, thank you.
Rich Sullivan
Thanks, Doug. Next question, please.
Operator
(Operator Instructions) At this point, there are no further questions in queue.
Rich Sullivan
Great. Well, that concludes todays first quarter earnings conference call. Id like to remind
everyone that a replay of this call will be available shortly and accessible on the