Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

DISAPPOINTING GLOBAL PERFORMANCE MAINLY DUE TO

SLOWDOWN IN EMERGING & DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
World: 2.4% (-0.2% from 2014)

Real GDP % Growth

Euro Area

USA
2014

2014

2015

Europe & Central Asia*

2015

2014

0.9% 1.5%

2.4% 2.5%

2015

2.3% 2.1%
East Asia & the Pacific

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

MENA

LAC

2014

2015

2.5%

2.5%

2014

2015

6.8% 6.4%

2014

2015

Country

2014

2015

1.5%

-0.7%

China

7.3

6.9

Indonesia

5.0

4.7

Malaysia

6.0

4.7

Philippines

6.1

5.8

#: Increase vs. 2014

#: Decrease vs. 2014
#: No change vs. 2014
Note: Europe & Central Asia only includes Developing Countries in the region, Euro Area refers to countries with high income
Source: World Bank Group (2016)

YET VIETNAM ECONOMY DEFIES REGION SLOWDOWN

2015 GDP
6.2
5.3

5.4

6.0

2015 CPI
6.7

18.7

9.1

6.6

4.1
0.6

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

The strongest performance in the

past 5 years

FDI Disbursements increase

+17.4% vs YA

Processing & Manufacturing sector

is the main growth contributor,
+10.6% vs YA

Final consumption growth surged

to +9.1% vs YA, compared to
growth of +6.2% in 2014

Source: Government Statistics Office (2015)

BY MAINTAINING EXPORT GROWTH WHILE OUR PEERS ARE

IMPACTED BY CHINESE SLOWDOWN
driven by

EXPORTS % GROWTH

FOREIGN-INVESTED COMPANIES
VIETNAM GROWING ATTRACTIVENESS

-10.6% Taiwan
-1.8% Hong Kong

-5.6% Philippines

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

+1.2% Malaysia

AS AN INVESTMENT DESTINATION
Geographic Advantage
Low Labour Cost
Low Operating Cost

-7.2% Singapore
-14.6% Indonesia

+8.1% VIETNAM

Participation in Trade Agreements

INCREASING EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS
Thanks to devaluation of Vietnamese
Dong by the SBV 3 times in 2015

#: Exports % Growth 2015 vs 2014

Source: Channel NewsAsia (2015),

HOWEVER, EXPORTS ARE BALANCED BY IMPORTS

-3.2
BIL. USD

% Growth 2015 vs. 2014

EXPORTS +8.1%, within which:

-47%

-1%

after 3 consecutive years of trade surplus

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

IMPORTS +12%, within which:

Driven by LOCAL BUSINESS SECTOR,

while foreign-invested companies
posted trade surplus

Source: General Statistics Office (2016)

+59%

+25%

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASES +3 PTS IN Q415

Vietnam is the 6th most optimistic country globally
Vietnam Consumer Confidence Index
112

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

106

104

105

108

Rank

Index change
vs Q315

India

Philippines

-1

Indonesia

+3

Thailand

+1

Denmark

+3

Vietnam

+1

UAE

+1

China

-3

Saudi Arabia

10

+2

Pakistan

Country

Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015

Increase
Source: Nielsen Global Survey, Consumer Confidence Section Q415

Decrease
7

HEALTH - THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR CONSUMERS IN 2015

Vietnamese consumers are the most health-conscious in Southeast Asia, calling for
manufacturers to start rethinking market offerings
34%

48%

29%
27%

VIETNAMESE PEOPLE CONSIDER

STAYING FIT AND HEALTHY

AS TOP ASPIRATION FOR THE FUTURE

35%

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

% People considering Health as Biggest & 2nd Biggest concern

Q415

HEALTH
Q1/2015

Q2/2015

Q3/2015

Q4/2015

SEA Average
Vietnam
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia

19
34
21
18
15
13

%: % people considering Health as biggest & second biggest concern

Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey (Q1-Q415), Nielsen Global Survey - Generational Lifestyles Insight Slides (Q1,2015)

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

VIETNAMS VOLUME GROWTH 2015 VS. 2014 IS ONLY BEHIND

THAILAND AND THE PHILIPPINES
Yet we lead FMCG growth of the region in the latter half of the year
REGIONAL SUMMARY FMCG % Growth 2015 vs. 2014
Unit value change

Volume change

FMCG % Volume Growth Rate

Nominal growth

Q4 2015

10.5%
2.2%

VIETNAM

4.9%

INDONESIA

3.8%

THAILAND

3.8%

PHILIPPINES

3.2%

MALAYSIA

1.9%

TAIWAN

0.5%

HONG KONG

-0.4%

SINGAPORE

-1.0%

CHINA

-4.9%

+
+
+

6.5%

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

3.6% 3.7%
1.0% 1.3%

0.9%

2.0%
2.7%

-0.1%
0.1% -0.4% -0.1%

4.4% 3.0%

-1.3%

Source: Asia Pacific Q4 2015 Growth Reporter

3.9%

: Increase

+/- vs Q3
2015

: Decrease
10

RECOVERY SPEEDS UP IN QUARTER 3 & 4, DRIVEN BY DEMAND

Fast Moving Consumer Goods dynamics - Total 6 cities
8%

5.7%
6%

4.5%
3.6%

4%
2%

0.8%

3.4%

3.1%
1.1%

2.7%

0.5%

1.8%
0.5%

3.6%
2.9%

4.9%

0.9%
0.0%

0%
-1.6%
Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

-2%

-2.0%

-1.9%

-5.2%

-4%
-6%

Unit value change

Source: Nielsen Retail Index Versus year ago

Volume change

Nominal growth

11

RECOVERY ACROSS MOST CATEGORIES, WITH BEVERAGE

BEING THE SUPER STAR
FMCG - Value Contribution (%)

FMCG Value Growth

TOTAL FMCG

35.8

36.9

38.8

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

Note: (*) Price is calculated based on Average Price

Source: Nielsen Retail Audit data

Value Growth

+4%

+1%
9%

1%

4%
-3%

Milk Base

0%

-1%

Cigarette

0%

-3%

Personal Care

2%

3%

Household Care

2%

2%

Baby Care

2014

2014 vs 2013

Value Growth

Beverage

Food

2013

2015 vs 2014

-3%

2%

2015
12

FOOD AND MILK-BASED BOUNCING BACK

Super Category Contribution and Growth - Total 6 Cities

15%

38%
BEVERAGE

8.2%

16%
FOOD

MILK-BASED

9.9% 9.7%

9.7% 9.6%
6.7%

7.3% 7.7%
6.9% 8.1% 8.1% 4.7%

3.7%

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

5.2%

-0.9%

Unit Value Change

-4.4%

-2.5%

Volume Change

Source: Nielsen Retail Index Versus year ago; % is value contribution to Total FMCG MAT TY

0.9%
-1.3%

3.0%
-0.6% -0.1%
-3.0% -3.5%

Nominal Value Growth

14

THEIR PLAYERS GOT MORE AND MORE ACTIVE

Question: Within FMCG brands in your store, which manufacturer do you support the most?

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

Source: Nielsen Retailer Sentiment Report (2nd June 3rd July)

15

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

AND HAS PAID MORE ATTENTION TO:

- Via Package:

- Via New launch

16

OTHER CATEGORIES ALSO RECOVER, EXCEPT FOR PERSONAL

CARE STILL EXPERIENCING STAGNATION
Super Category Contribution and Growth - Total 6 Cities

6%

9%

HOME CARE

13%

PERSONAL CARE

4%

CIGARETTE

7.1%
3.9%

4.5%

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

-0.6%

-0.3%
3.4%

6.3%
-0.8%

5.6%

BABY CARE

6.9%
2.1%

4.0% 4.1%
-0.1%

0.6%
-2.8%

-0.4%

-4.0%

2.8%

-5.2% -4.8%

Unit Value Change

Volume Change

Source: Nielsen Retail Index Versus year ago; % is value contribution to Total FMCG MAT TY

-5.9%
-10.8 -11.2
% %

Nominal Value Growth

17

GROWTH IS EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE IN RURAL

Rural showed high volatility in growth: consumption declined faster when economy
weakened, and re-cover in a more positive macro situation
FMCG DYNAMICS
Urban (46%)

Vietnam

Rural (54%)
5.5%

4.5%
3.4%
2.0%

4.3%

5.5%
2.7%

-0.0%
-1.8%

-1.7%
Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

-3.9%
-5.5%

2014

2015

UR-2014
Unit value change

UR- 2015

Volume change

RR-2014

RR-2015

Nominal growth

Note: This slide only includes Feminine Protection, Hair Conditioner, Shampoo, Toothpaste, Toothbrush, Personal Wash, Dishwashing Liquids, Fabric
Softener, Laundry Products, Bouillon-MSG, RTDM, Soft Drink, Packaged Water, Energy Drink, RTDT, Cigarette, Sport Drink and Sweet Condensed Milk

18

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

FMCG IS EXPECTED TO HAVE POSITIVE GROWTH IN 2016 YET

SLOW DOWN IN 2017

EXPECTED AVERAGE FORECAST as the most likely scenario , 95% chance will be within 2-3% of this scenario
EXPECTED MAX FORECAST most likely happens in optimistic market, with the signal of:

Big increase in FDI.

Strengthening Forex

Big increase in consumer confidence.

EXPECTED MIN FORECAST most likely happens in pessimistic market, with the signal of:

Recession 2 periods of declining GDP growth

Tax hikes introduction of GST, gas prices tax increase

Political turmoil

19

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

20

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

21

2015 - YEAR OF M&A IN VIETNAM

Mondelez finished the acquisition
of an 80 percent stake in Kinh Dos
snack business

AEON acquired 30% of

Fivimart and 49% of Citimart

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

AUG
14

SEP
14

OCT
14

BJC and Metro

announced about the
acquisition in Vietnam

NOV
14

DEC
14

Vingroup became the

new owner of Maximark

Vingroup bought 100%

of Vinatexmart

Vingroup bought
Ocean Retail Group

JAN
15

FEB
15

MAR
15

APR
15

MAY
15

TCC Holding stepped

in the acquisition

JUN
15

JUL
15

AUG
15

SEP
15

OCT
15

NOV
15

DEC
15

Singha bought stakes valued at

$1.1 billion in certain
subsidiaries of Masan Group.

Central Group acquired

49% of Nguyen Kim

22

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

23

OFFLINE VS. ONLINE SHOPPERS IN VIETNAM

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

I dont have to
bear shipping fees
or stringent return
policies

I dont want to
wait for products
to arrive

I can easily interact

with, evaluate and
select products

Source: The Role of Digital in Shopping, Nielsen 2014

I secure a better price

and access to deals and
coupons

I can compare
between different
sites before making
decision

I can avoid crowded

stores / checkout lines

Its
available
24 x 7

24

UNLOCK MORE OPPORTUNITIES IN WINNING OUR SHOPPERS

DO YOU KNOW THAT IN HCM & HN?
of internet users are
also online shoppers

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

92%

BUT frequency limits

to TWICE/MONTH

Explore the channel mission and

interaction between online and
offline store choices

93%

shoppers are
Middle class &
Millennials

Understand online shoppers

and determine strategies to win
them

Source: Nielsen Vietnam study in May 2015 in HCM & HN, n = 500 internet users in last 3 months

>50%

of popular online
retailers consumers
are struggling to
differentiate their
store identity

Measuring your online stores

brand health and identify
improvements

25

Copyright 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

26

CVS IS BOOMING ACROSS VIETNAM

WHO

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

NEW LIFESTYLE EMERGES

Source: Banners official website; Nielsen Thought Leadership Report Need for Speed CVS; Viet Nam
Household Living Standards Survey 2012 VN GSO
No. of mentioned CVS stores: VinMart+, Shop & Go, Circle K, Bs Mart, Family Mart, Aeon Citimart
B&B, Ministop

27

CONSUMER PURCHASE MOMENTUM GROWING TOWARDS CVS

A time saver for
working females

A hangout venue
for young shoppers

A convenient location
for working males

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

2014 vs. 2012

TRADITIONAL GROCERY

MORE THAN JUST A

CONVENIENCE STORE

CONVENIENCE STORE

Where consumers shop (%)

Where consumers shop (%)

81% 64%

5% 11%

Frequency (Average Per Month)

Frequency (Average Per Month)

10.8 8.6

2.1 3.6

Source: Observations/websites
Nielsen Thought Leadership Report Need for Speed CVS

28

AND CVS WILL HAVE TO RESPOND TO MORE VARIOUS

DEMANDS OF THE FUTURE
WHAT WILL CHANGE CONSUMERS BY 2020?
Nearly everyone will be online
by 2020

Gives rise to new ways of consuming

in an increasingly busy world

Snack as meal
replacement
Today

34%

45%

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

of the
world population

Food and beverages will be expected

to go beyond general health claims

2020

85%
of the
world population

CONNECTIVITY
Source: Whats in Store 2020 Report, Nielsen, Oct 2015

One of the most soughtafter functions is the

ability to carry out
simple tasks when away
from home

TECHNOLOGY

Nutritious

Unique
Convenience

Health
Benefit

EATING HABIT
29

HEALTHY GROWTH

6.7%

AND

Copyright 2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

GDP GROWTH
2015 VS YA

REFLECTED IN FMCG
FMCG GROWTH
2015 VS YA

0.6%

VOL. GROWTH ONLY BEHIND THAILAND & THE PHILLIPINES

CPI 2015 VS YA
LOW INFLATION

EXPORT GROWTH

CCI Q415

+8.1%

108

BALANCED BY
HIGHER IMPORT RATE

RANKING NO. 6
GLOBALLY

+3.6%

RECOVERY ACROSS MOST

CATEGORIES, NOTICEABLY
FOOD & MILK-BASED

RURAL WITNESSES IMPRESSIVE

GROWTH, HOWEVER SHOW HIGH
VOLATILITY

VIETNAM RETAIL
LANDSCAPE 2015
M&A
2015 - YEAR OF M&A
IN VIETNAM

E-COMMERCE
High potential for
Ecommerce in VN
Millennials are the most
active digital buyers

CVS

CVS is booming and playing

various functions to consumers
Connectivity, Technology &
Eating Habit in CVS will
transform by 2020

30