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Switzerland
0.3
Japan
0.7
Euro Zone
1.6
Inflation % (YOY)
Interest rate %
-0.8
-0.75
0.3
-0.1
-0.2
0
Technical Explanation:Dow Jones Index looks like forming the same pattern which it has formed at the
time of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. The index is only 650 points away from its
life time high of 18351, which it has marked in May 2015. Based on the Ichimoku
technical indicator, a further up move from its immediate resistance zone of
18350-18650 looks like difficult.
Dollar Index (CMP 94.11):-
Technical Explanation:The pair has formed an exactly opposite technical pattern which it has formed in
Dollar Index, as euro consist of 57.6% weightage in Dollar index. As per this
reverse flag pattern, target can be set around 0.6923 by subtracting 3535 pips
(Difference b/w high of 1.3993 on May 2014 and low of 1.0458 on March 1.0458)
from break out level of 1.0458. The above mentioned target level if at all meet,
will be a new low as against 0.8230 in October 2000 since the inception of Euro
currency from 1st Jan 1999. The above pattern will turn vague if the pair crosses
1.1710 mark.
Technical Explanation:DAX Index is forming a technical bearish topping pattern as the index unable to
sustain above 10000 mark since last few week. As ichimoku Chiko span technical
indicator favors selling in the index, 10112 its recent high as well as 50%
retracement of its fall from 11430 to 8699 will act as a resistance for the index.
Any close above 10112 on a monthly basis will negate our above mentioned view.
GOLD (CMP $1047):-
Technical Explanation:Nifty Index has also forming exactly same pattern as it has formed at the time of
Lehman Brothers default. As per this pattern, Nifty is expected to behave in a
similar monthly candlestick pattern for next three months i.e. April, May & June
2016 as it has behaved in August, September and October 2008. The pattern is
similar; however repetition of the same might change from April, May and June
2016 to any other combination of months in 2016.
After Modis government came on board, Nifty has given a breakout of its
previous high of 6357 and thereafter touched a new high of 9119 in March 2015.
Since the election result, we have not seen nifty trading below breakout level.
Based on this info and clubbing technical together, I think nifty should fall till
immediate target of 5650 (50% retracement of the rise from 2252 of October
2008 to 9119 in March 2015) and thereafter 4850 (61.8% retracement).
Technical Explanation:USDINR is moving in a rising price band, where currently it is trading near lower
trend line support of 65.80. It is expected to hold this level on a monthly basis
and thus upside immediate target can be set at least till 70.30 as I expect few
more candles to be formed taking support of this rising channel. Considering the
fall which I expect in equity and rally in Dollar Index, there is a possibility that
USDINR can move till 72.50-73.50 level. On the down side a monthly closing
below 65.80 will negate our above mentioned view.
Conclusion: Considering the present global economic scenario, I am on the opinion that one
should exit their existing equity portfolio and opt for the safe heave such as US
treasury, Gold or Cash.
Thanks & Best Regards,
Dhaval Shah (+91 9664004455)
The information and analysis contained in this document come from sources believed to be reliable;
however, no representation or warranty, express or Implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy,
completeness or correctness of this information. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute an
offer to Sell/purchase or an invitation/ solicitation to do so for any currency, security, and equity.