Putin Orders Start of Syria Withdrawal,

Saying Goals Are Achieve

MOSCOW President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Monday ordered the withdrawal
of the main part of Russian forces in Syria, a surprise move that reflected what he
called the Kremlins achievement of nearly all its objectives in the war-torn country.
The news upended expectations in Western capitals and among ordinary Syrians, setting
off fevered speculation about Russias intentions, much as Mr. Putins unexpected
military plunge into the Syrian battlefield five months ago changed the course of the
war.
Perhaps the most urgent questions were how the move would affect the wars outcome
and what it meant for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, whose rule had been
increasingly threatened by a string of military losses before Russian forces backed him
up.
The Russian decision could signal a new confidence in Mr. Assads stability or an effort
to pressure him to negotiate with his political adversaries or both.
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Mr. Putin has made his move at a particularly critical moment, as the upheaval in Syria
enters its sixth year and a United Nations mediator in Geneva tries to revive peace talks
to stop the war, which has displaced millions and created a humanitarian catastrophe.
A Russian military pullback will not leave Mr. Assads forces completely alone, because
he also has support from Iran and from Hezbollah in Lebanon. And the Kremlin made
clear it was keeping its new air base in the coastal Mediterranean province of Latakia, in
addition to the naval refueling station it has kept nearby in Tartus since Soviet times.

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22 Weeks in Syria

Sept. 30, 2015: Russia begins bombing in Syria, carrying out nearly as
many strikes per day as the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS was
carrying out each month. Mr. Putin says Russia is fighting ISIS and
other terrorists, but the U.S. says the strikes target antigovernment
rebels.

Dec. 24, 2015: Human rights groups say Russian forces appear to
have attacked civilians.

Feb. 5, 2016: Syrian government forces, backed by Russian airstrikes,

advance in Aleppo province, sending insurgents scrambling and
civilians fleeing toward Turkey.

Feb. 27: A cease-fire brokered by the U.S. and Russia begins. ISIS and
the Nusra Front are excluded because they are classified as terrorist
groups. Though violations are reported, there is a marked reduction in
airstrikes.

March 14, 2016: Mr. Putin announces that Russia has achieved its
goals in Syria and orders the withdrawal of the "main part" of its
forces.

Mr. Putin has a history of unpredictability and is known for public statements that do
not always align with Russias actions. In eastern Ukraine, for example, fighting by
Moscow-backed rebels has continued even though Mr. Putin has pledged to honor a
peace treaty.
But Russia is also facing deepening economic problems caused by the collapse in global
oil prices, and the announcement may reflect Mr. Putins desire to declare victory and
extricate his country from a costly military venture.
The Kremlin declared its plans hours after the United Nations mediator, Staffan de
Mistura, met with the Syrian government delegation in Geneva.
There have been growing signs of differences between Russia and the Syrian
government over the Geneva talks, which Moscow has pressed hard for, along with
Washington. And for Mr. Assad, the prospect of Russias leaving him to fend for himself
is sure to focus his mind on following its lead advice that Russian officials have
publicly offered him in recent days.
I seriously doubt Moscow is breaking with Assad, said Andrew J. Tabler, a scholar on
Syria at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Rather, he said, the Russian
announcement appeared to be putting the military burden back on Assad so as to soften
up his negotiating position.

Moscow has recently evinced a measure of frustration. Three times in the past two
weeks, Mr. Assad and his advisers have made public statements noticeably out of sync
with Russias declared goal of substantive talks most recently on Saturday, when
Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem of Syria declared that Mr. Assads rule was a red
line and that there would be no discussion of presidential elections.
Photo

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. Credit Michael Klimentyev/Agence

France-Presse Getty Images

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Speculation about Russias announcement grew so intense, including among Syrian

government loyalists on social media, that by Monday night, Mr. Assads office issued a
statement to dispel rumors that the president had been caught flat-footed. It blamed
partners in Syrian bloodshed for the conjecture and said that the announcement had
been made with full coordination after extensive study of recent military successes
and that Syria and Russia are, as always, together fighting terrorism.
The Russian move may also be a reflection that Mr. Putin is now supremely confident in
Mr. Assads renewed stability and can afford to step back a bit and play statesman.
Mr. Putin has achieved many of his main goals: bringing Russia back to center stage as
a global power; preventing, on principle, regime change by outside powers, particularly
Western ones; gaining a stronger foothold in Syria; picking off Russian jihadists on the
Syrian battlefield; and strengthening Mr. Assad.
The Syrian leader appeared more threatened last summer than he had been in years, as
American-backed and Islamist insurgents coordinated more effectively and began to
threaten his coastal strongholds. But the Russian intervention turned the tables.
Now, many of those insurgent gains have been reversed, and Russian air power helped
cut off critical opposition supply lines into Turkey, isolating the rebel-held portion of
Aleppo, Syrias largest city. That does not put Mr. Assad in a position to retake the
entire country, but it does, at least, restore the deadlock that he had maintained through
2014.
And it can be argued that Mr. Putin has little to lose: Russia can easily resume strikes
from its base at will, and it can keep supporting the Syrian military and Mr. Assads
other allies on the ground Iranian-backed militias from Hezbollah, Iraq and
elsewhere with Russian weapons while floating cash to the Syrian government.
But Russia remains mindful of its history of getting bogged down in a long war in
Afghanistan in the 1980s and of the $3 million daily cost of its involvement in Syria

while collapsing oil prices and economic sanctions are harming Russias financial
health.
Initially, Russia said it was intervening in Syria to take the fight to the Islamic State
militant group. But it soon came under criticism for concentrating on other insurgents
groups fighting Mr. Assad that do not belong to the Islamic State and sometimes
clash with it, including some that were supported by the West. Russian officials said any
groups coordinating with the Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, as many of those groups have
done, were fair game.
By declaring, in effect, mission accomplished, Russia is in a way acknowledging that
destroying the Islamic State was never the primary goal; the group is still deeply
entrenched in much of northern and eastern Syria.
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Yet Russian airstrikes are pummeling Palmyra, a historic city held by the Islamic State.
If government troops manage to retake it, Mr. Putin could claim to have saved an
archaeological treasure by preventing the extremist group from further destroying some
of the worlds most significant ancient ruins. (Some antigovernment activists there say,
however, that the airstrikes are endangering the ruins, as well as civilians.)
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Recent Comments
David
42 minutes ago

Or maybe he made a deal with the Saudi's to prop up oil prices.

grh12
42 minutes ago

Wouldn't it be nice to have a leader like Vladimir Putin. Someone who acts on well
defined goals and knows when he has reached them.

BF
48 minutes ago

It got too expensive. The ruble is way down. The price of oil, from which Russia runs
its government, has plummeted from $120 to around...

See All Comments

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Russia has been accused of targeting noncombatants and civilian infrastructure, like
hospitals, which it has denied; opposition groups said Russian airstrikes had accounted
for over half of civilian casualties since September.
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Signs of Hope Five Years After Start of Syrias War

The partial cease-fire in Syria, which began Feb. 27, has proved more effective and
durable than expected, significantly reducing the level of violence.

But under a partial truce flawed and wobbly, but holding for the past few weeks
the rate of airstrikes has plunged, though opposition groups still accuse Russia of
violations.
The announcement on Monday surprised people on all sides of the conflict. State
Department officials, Syrian antigovernment activists, Mr. Assads supporters and
Syrian opposition negotiators all reacted with disbelief, not sure whether to lament,
celebrate or laugh.
In Idlib Province, held by a combination of insurgents that range from the Nusra Front
to American-backed rebels, people fired guns in the air.
People are distributing sweets and calling God is great from the mosques, said a
fighter who gave his name as Ahmed. Theres optimism, but we dont know whats
hidden.
Farther south, in Homs, an antigovernment activist, Firas who, like Ahmed, asked
that only his first name be used for safety reasons was worried. The Russians were

sponsoring the cease-fire, he said. Now the regime will bomb again and the Russians
will leave us for the Iranians, a disaster.
Even in Geneva, the opposition spokesman, Salem al-Muslet, reflected that
ambivalence, resenting Russias support for Mr. Assad but seeing Mr. Putin as the only
figure who could force Mr. Assad to negotiate in earnest.
Nobody knows what is in Putins mind, but the point is, he has no right to be in our
country in the first place, he said at first. Just go. Later, he added, If its true, this is
a good sign and a good start to a political solution.
President Obama spoke by telephone with Mr. Putin, a White House statement said. Mr.
Obama welcomed the reduction in violence in Syria since the cease-fire began last
month, but he emphasized that continuing offensive actions by Syrian regime forces
risk undermining both the cessation of hostilities and a political resolution led by the
United Nations.
The president underscored that a political transition is required to end the violence in
Syria, the statement said.