Professional Documents
Culture Documents
https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gabnab.htm
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut US growth (from its October
announcement) by 0.2 percentage point for 2016 and 2017. However, it raised the 2016
growth projection for the EU by 0.1 percentage point.
But what should worry India is the fact that the IMF has cut its global trade growth forecasts
by 0.7 percentage point for 2016 and 0.5 percentage point for the year after that to 3.4%
and 4.1%, respectively, and the downward revision of the economic growth projections for
the US. Indias merchandise exports have already contracted for a 13th straight month
through December, and with its biggest market the US likely to witness lower-thanexpected recovery, any sharp rebound in Indias export prospects is unlikely any time soon.
According to the report, advanced economies will still perform better in 2016, with growth
likely to rise to 2.1% from 1.9% in 2015. Even developing economies could witness higher
growth in 2016 and 2017 at 4.3% and 4.7%, respectively, compared with 4% in 2015, which
is the lowest since the financial crisis in 2008-09. Brazil saw a sharp downward revision in
growth projections a cut of 2.5 percentage points from the October forecast level to -3.5%
for 2016.
The IMF believes further risks to global growth could stem more from emerging markets and
developing countries than the developed ones. These risks relate mostly to the ongoing
adjustments of the global economy, namely
Chinas rebalancing,
On the downside, further declines in commodity prices would worsen the outlook for
already-fragile commodity producers, and widening yields on energy sector debt
threaten a broader tightening of credit conditions.
On the upside, the recent decline in oil prices may provide a stronger boost to
demand in oil importers, including through consumers possible perception that
prices will remain lower for longer.
A fresh decline in commodity prices and weakness in global manufacturing are weighing on
traded goods prices, so inflation will likely soften again. It has asked policymakers in
emerging markets and developing economies to redirect activity to new sources of growth.
These economies also need to press on with structural reforms to remove infrastructure
bottlenecks, facilitate a dynamic and innovation-friendly business environment, and bolster
human capital through reforms to education, labour, and product markets, it said.
Emerging Economies
Advanced Economies
Countries with high debt should aim for debt reduction policies that minimize the
drag on economic activity
IDA 17 Replenishment
IDA-17 replenishment meeting was held in Moscow. Under the overarching theme of
Maximizing Development Impact, IDA-17 will finance projects over a three-year
period (July 2014 to June 2017) and have a significant part in advancing the
WBGs two-pronged goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity
by 2030.
The pledges represent about a 5 percent nominal increase over IDA-16 (but inflation
means the funding is broadly flat in real terms), with 46 countries contributing in the
latest round, compared to 51 for IDA-16.
Donor nations pledged a record $52 billion to the International Development Association
(IDA)
Along with this, a Subsidiary Agreement was also entered into between
Government of India and Project Implementing Entity i.e. Government of Jammu &
Kashmir.
The primary beneficiaries would be the communities in the districts of Jammu &
Kashmir that were affected by loss of public service infrastructure that will be
restored and improved under the project.
Implementation Support.
1 industrial revolution: The first Industrial Revolution began in Britain in the last
st
quarter of the 18th century with the mechanisation of the textile industry, harnessing of
steam power, and birth of the modern factory.
2 industrial revolution: The Second Industrial Revolution, from the last third of the
nd
There are three reasons why todays transformations represent not merely a
prolongation of the Third Industrial Revolution but rather the arrival of a Fourth and
distinct one: velocity, scope, and systems impact.
Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country. And the breadth
and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of
production, management, and governance.
systems which, while being reliant on the technologies and infrastructure of the
third industrial revolution, represent entirely new ways in which technology becomes
embedded within societies and even our human bodies. Examples include genome
editing, new forms of machine intelligence, and breakthrough approaches to
governance that rely on cryptographic methods such as blockchain.
Like the revolutions that preceded it, the Fourth Industrial Revolution has the potential
to raise global income levels and improve the quality of life for populations around the
world.
In the future, technological innovation will also lead to a supply-side miracle, with
long-term gains in efficiency and productivity.
Transportation and communication costs will drop, logistics and global supply
chains will become more effective, and the cost of trade will diminish, all of which
will open new markets and drive economic growth.
As automation substitutes for labor across the entire economy, the net
displacement of workers by machines might exacerbate the gap between returns to
capital and returns to labor.
With this revolution, it is also possible that in the future, talent, more than
capital, will represent the critical factor of production. This will give rise to a job
market increasingly segregated into low-skill/low-pay and high-skill/high-pay
segments, which in turn will lead to an increase in social tensions.
Ultimately, the ability of government systems and public authorities to adapt will
determine their survival. If they prove capable of embracing a world of disruptive
change, subjecting their structures to the levels of transparency and efficiency that
will enable them to maintain their competitive edge, they will endure. If they cannot
evolve, they will face increasing trouble.
This new vulnerability will lead to new fears. But at the same time, advances in
technology will create the potential to reduce the scale or impact of violence,
through the development of new modes of protection or greater precision in
targeting.
By continuing to ensure basic protection for workers as the changes take place.
Governments have, along with the private sector, an obligation to strengthen these
core protections.
By expanding access to capital. Existing capital and the tools that support
entrepreneurship should be made widely available to people who havent had access
to it before.
Conclusion:
In its most pessimistic, dehumanized form, the Fourth Industrial Revolution may indeed
have the potential to robotize humanity and thus to deprive us of our heart and soul.
But as a complement to the best parts of human naturecreativity, empathy,
stewardshipit can also lift humanity into a new collective and moral consciousness
based on a shared sense of destiny. It is incumbent on us all to make sure the latter
prevails. We should thus grasp the opportunity and power we have to shape the Fourth
Industrial Revolution and direct it toward a future that reflects our common objectives
and values.
The three-year bond builds on IFCs Masala bond programme, which has raised the
equivalent of $1.7 billion from international investors for investment in India.
Proceeds from IFCs Uridashi Masala bonds will be used to support private sector
investment in India.