Ti chnh doanh nghip

Chng 3
Thm nh d n u t
Nn u t
nh my ny
hay khng?

3-1

Ni dung
Nguyn tc nh gi d n u t:
Thi gian hon vn (Paybank Period)
Gi tr hin ti rng (NPV)
T l hon vn ni b (IRR)
D tnh dng tin ca d n
Phn tch nh hng ca lm pht
Phn tch ri ro

3-2

Thm nh d n u t l g?
Phn tch mt k hoch u t ti sn
c nh.
L mt quyt nh di hn, i hi u
t vn ln.
ng vai tr v cng quan trng i vi
tng lai ca cng ty.

3-3

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

Cc bc thm nh d n u t
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

D tnh dng tin- CF (Dng tin vo & dng

tin ra).
nh gi ri ro ca dng tin
Xc nh chi ph vn ph hp.
Tnh gi tr hin ti rng (NPV) v/hoc t l
hon vn ni b (IRR)
Chp nhn d n nu NPV > 0 v/hoc IRR
>chi ph vn bnh qun (WACC).

3-4

D n c lp vi nhau v loi tr
ln nhau
D n c lp nhau: dng tin ca d
n ny khng ph thuc vo vic chp
nhn d n kia.
D n loi tr ln nhau: dng tin ca
d n ny c th b nh hng theo
chiu hng bt li nu d n kia c
chp nhn.

3-5

Dng tin chun v dng tin

khng chun
Dng tin chun: tip sau chi ph (Dng tin
ra) l dng tin vo (mt ln thay i t dng
tin m sang dng).
Dng tin khng chun: Xy ra hai ln thay
i chiu dng tin tr ln. Thng thng l:
Chi ph (dng tin m), tip n l mt chui
dng tin dng v cui cng l chi ph
(dng tin m) khi d n kt thc. V d: nh
my ht nhn, khai thc m v.v.
3-6

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

Thi gian hon vn

(Payback period)
L s nm cn thit hon li cc chi ph
ca d n u t, hoc khong thi gian
thu hi vn u t.
c tnh bng cch cng cc dng tin
vo ca d n v chi ph cho ti khi dng
tin tch lu ca d n bt u dng.

3-7

Tnh thi gian hon vn

D n A
CFt
Tch lu
PaybackA
D n B
CFt
Tch lu
PaybackB

0
-100
-100

== 2

2.4

10
-90

60
-30

100
0

80

30 / 80

1.6

-100
-100

70
-30

== 1

= 2.375 nm
2

100 50
0 20

30 / 50

50

3
20
40

= 1.6 nm
3-8

u nhc im ca thc o
thi gian hon vn
u im:
Cho bit ri ro v tnh thanh khon ca d
n u t.
D hiu v p dng.

Nhc im:
Khng tnh n gi tr thi gian ca tin.
Khng quan tm ti cc dng tin sau thi
gian thu hi vn.
3-9

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

Thi gian hon vn chit khu

(Discounted Payback period)
Cn c vo dng tin chit khu khi tnh
thi gian hon vn.
0

10%

2.7 3

CFt

-100

10

60

80

PV ca CFt

-100

9.09

49.59

Tch lu

-100

-90.91

-41.32

60.11
18.79

Disc PaybackL ==

41.32 / 60.11

= 2.7 nm
3-10

Gi tr hin ti rng
(Net Present Value- NPV)
Bng tng cc gi tr hin ti ca tt c
cc dng tin vo v dng tin ra ca d
n u t:
n

CFt
t
t =0 ( 1 + k )

NPV =

3-11

NPV ca cc d n A v B
Nm
0
1
2
3

CFt
PV(CFt)
-100
-$100
10
9.09
60
49.59
80
60.11
NPVA = $18.79

NPVB = $19.98
Gi thit k=10%
3-12

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

Quy tc nh gi d n cn c
vo NPV
NPV

= PV(dng tin vo) Chi ph

= Gi tr tng thm do u t
Nu cc d n c lp vi nhau: chp nhn
d n nu NPV > 0.
Nu cc d n loi tr ln nhau: la chn d
n c NPV dng ln nht, tc l d n to
ra gi tr gia tng nhiu nht.
Trng hp d n A v B:
Nu hai d n c lp nhau: Chp nhn c
hai d n.
Nu hai d n loi tr ln nhau: la chn
d n B v NPVB>NPBA
3-13

T l hon vn ni b
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
IRR l t l chit khu sao cho gi tr hin ti ca cc
dng tin vo ca d n bng chi ph, tc l NPV=0:
n

0=
t =0

CFt
( 1 + IRR ) t

Nu IRR > WACC, t l sinh li ca d n cao hn chi

ph vn, do vy lm tng t l sinh li ca ch s hu.
S dng my tnh ti chnh c th tnh c:
IRRA = 18.13% and IRRB = 23.56%.

3-14

c lng IRR
Trng hp d n c cc lung tin cc k
bng nhau:
IRR = i1 +

NPV1 (i1 i2 )
NPV1 + NPV2

Trng hp d n c cc lung tin trong

tng lai khng bng nhau:
Phng php ni suy tuyn tnh.
Phng php tnh trc tip (p dng cng thc trn.
Xem v d trang 204-207, sch Ti chnh doanh
nghip
3-15

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

Quy tc nh gi d n cn c vo
IRR
Nu IRR > k: chp nhn d n.
Nu IRR < k: khng chp nhn d n.
Nu cc d n c lp vi nhau: chp
nhn c hai d n A v B v c hai u
c IRR > k = 10%.
Nu cc d n loi tr ln nhau: la
chn d n B v IRRB > IRRA.
3-16

NPV ca d n A v B cc mc
chi ph vn khc nhau
k
NPVA
NPVB
0
$50
$40
5
33
29
10
19
20
15
7
12
20
(4)
5
D n c thi gian hon vn nhanh hn s em li cc
dng tin ln hn trong thi k u v c th s dng
ti u t. Do vy, nu k cao, d n em li dng tin
sm hn s tt hn, NPVB > NPVA.
3-17

Biu din trn th

NPV 60
($)

.
.
40
50

30

.
.

20

im giao nhau = 8.7%

10

IRRA = 18.1%

..

0
5

10

-10

Dng Th Hng Vn

15

.
.

20

.
23.6

IRRB = 23.6%
k (%)
3-18

Ti chnh doanh nghip

Cch xc nh im giao nhau

Xc nh chnh lch dng tin hng nm ca cc d

n.
im giao nhau ca hai d n chnh l IRR ca mt
d n c dng tin hng nm bng chnh lch dng
tin ca hai d n.
V d: Li sut ti im giao nhau ca d n A v B l
8.68%. Ta c th ly dng tin ca A tr dng tin ca
B hoc ngc li, nhng nn chnh lch dng tin
u tin nh hn 0.
Nu th biu din NPV ca A v B khng ct nhau,
ngha l c mt d n vt tri hn hn so vi d n
kia.
3-19

So snh hai phng php

NPV v IRR
Trng hp cc d n c lp vi nhau:
hai phng php u i n cng mt
kt lun nh nhau.
Trng hp cc d n loi tr ln nhau:
Nu k > li sut ti im giao nhau, hai
phng php c cng kt lun nh nhau.
If k < li sut ti im giao nhau, hai
phng php c kt lun khc nhau.

3-20

La chn gia hai phng php

NPV v IRR
Phng php NPV:
Gi thit dng tin c ti u t mc li sut chi ph
vn k.
cp ti quy m d n u t.
Cho bit mc sinh li ca d n.

Phng php IRR:

Gi thit dng tin c ti u t mc li sut IRR
Khng cp ti quy m d n u t.
Cho bit t sut sinh li ca d n.

Phng php NPV u vit hn. Trong trng hp

c s xung t gia hai phng php NPV v IRR
th vic la chn theo phng php NPV cn c
coi trng hn.
3-21

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

T l hon vn ni b iu chnh
(MIRR)
MIRR l t l chit khu sao cho gi tr hin ti
ca gi tr cui cng (TV-terminal value) ca d
n bng gi tr hin ti ca chi ph. Gi tr cui
cung (TV) bng tng gi tr tng lai ca cc
dng tin vo ca d n vi li sut bng chi ph
vn bnh qun (wacc).
MIRR gi thit dng tin ca d n c ti u
t mc li sut bng chi ph vn bnh qun
(wacc)
3-22

Tnh MIRR ca d n A
0

10%

-100.0

10.0

60.0

3
10%

10%
MIRR = 16.5%

-100.0

$100 =

PV chi ph

$158.1
(1 + MIRRL)3

80.0
66.0
12.1
158.1
Termial Value

MIRRA = 16.5%
3-23

D n c nhiu gi tr IRR
0

k = 10%

-800

5,000

-5,000

D n C c dng tin nh sau:

CF0 = -800, CF1 = $5,000, v CF2 = -$5,000.
NPV = -$386.78.
IRR1 = 25% IRR2= 400%

3-24

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

D n c nhiu gi tr IRR
NPV
IRR2 = 400%
450
0
-800

100

400

IRR1 = 25%

3-25

D n c nhiu gi tr IRR
Ti mc li sut chit khu rt thp,
gi tr hin ti ca CF2 lm cho
NPV<0.
Ti mc li sut chit khu rt cao,
gi tr hin ti ca CF1 v CF2 u
nh lm cho NPV<0.
Li sut khong gia, NPV>0
V vy: c hai gi tr NPV
3-26

nh gi d n trong trng
hp c nhiu gi tr IRR
Khi d n c dng tin khng chun v
c nhiu gi tr IRR, nn s dng MIRR
ra quyt nh u t.
PV chi ph @ 10% = -$4,932.2314.
Gi tr cui cng (TV) @ 10% = $5,500.
MIRR = 5.6%.

Khng chp nhn d n C v:

NPV = -$386.78 < 0.
MIRR = 5.6% < k = 10%.
3-27

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

D tnh dng tin v Phn tch

ri ro d n

3-28

D n u t d kin
Tng chi ph mua sm TSC:
Gi mua my mc thit b: $200,000
Chi ph vn ti: $10,000
Chi ph lp t: $30,000

Thay i vn lu ng:
Tng hng tn kho $25,000
Tng cc khon phi tr: $5,000

Tc ng ti hot ng:
Doanh s mi: 100,000 n v/nm @ $2/n
v

Chi ph sn xut + Chi ph hot ng: 60%

doanh thu

3-29

D n u t d kin
Vng i d n: 4 nm
Thi gian s dng TSC: 4 nm
Gi tr thu hi ti sn (salvage value):
$25,000

Thu sut: 40%

Chi ph vn bnh qun: 10%

3-30

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

D tnh dng tin d n

Tnh chi ph ban u (CF0)
Tnh dng tin hot ng hng nm (OCFi).
Tnh dng tin cui ca d n (Terminal CF)
0

CF0

OCF1

OCF2

OCF3

NCF0

NCF1

NCF2

NCF3

OCF4
+
Terminal
CF
NCF4
3-31

Tnh chi ph ban u

Thay i vn lu ng ( NOWC)
hng tn kho: $25,000
cc khon phi tr $5,000
NOWC = $25,000 - $5,000 = $20,000

Tng chi ph ban u:

Mua sm TSC
NOWC
NCF0

-$240,000
-$20,000
-$260,000
3-32

Xc nh chi ph khu hao

hng nm
Nm

T l KH

1
2
3
4

0.33
0.45
0.15
0.07
1.00

x
x
x
x
x

Nguyn gi TSC

$240
240
240
240

Khu hao

$ 79
108
36
17
$240

3-33

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

Dng tin hot ng hng nm

Doanh thu
- Chi ph (60%)
- Khu hao
EBIT
- EBITxt (40%)
NOPAT
+ Khu hao
OCF

1
200
-120
-79
1
1

2
200
-120
-108
-28
-11
-17

79
80

108
91

3
4
200 200
-120 -120
-36 -17
44
63
18
25
26
38
36
62

17
55
3-34

Dng tin cui ca d n

(Terminal CF)
Thu hi TSL (NOWC)
$20,000
Gi tr thu hi ti sn
25,000
Thu thu hi ti sn (40%) -10,000
Terminal CF
$35,000

3-35

NPV, IRR ca d n
0

-260

80

91

3
62
Terminal CF

4
55
35
90

Gi thit chi ph vn k= 10%.

NPV = -$4.03 (triu)
IRR = 9.3%
khng chp nhn d n
3-36

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

Tnh MIRR ca d n
0

10%

-260.0

80

91

62

-260.0
PV chi ph

$260 =

$374.8
(1 + MIRR)4

4
90
68.2
110.1
106.5
374.8
Terminal Value

MIRR = 9.6% < k = 10%, khng chp nhn

d n

3-37

nh gi thi gian hon vn

ca d n (Payback)
0

-260

80

91

62

90

-180

-89

-27

63

Tch lu:
-260

Payback = 3 +

27

/ 90 = 3.3 nm.

3-38

nh hng ca lm pht
Lm pht lm tng li sut chit khu.
Do vy, lm pht lm PV c xu hng
gim xung.
Trong d bo dng tin, cn tnh ti
yu t lm pht.

3-39

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

Dng tin hot ng hng nm, gi

thit lm pht mong i l = 5%
Doanh thu
- Chi ph (60%)
- Khu hao
- EBIT
- EBITxt (40%)
NOPAT
+ Khu hao
OCF

1
2
210 220
-126 -132
-79 -108
5
-20
2
-8
3
-12
79 108
82
96

3
232
-139
-36
57
23
34
36
70

4
243
-146
-17
80
32
48
17
65
3-40

nh hng ca lm pht:
NPV v IRR
0

-260

82

96

3
70
Terminal CF

4
65
35
100

Gi thit chi ph vn K = 10%

NPV = $15.0 (triu).
IRR = 12.6%.
3-41

Ri ro ca d n u t
Ri ro ring bit (Stand-alone risk)
Ri ro cng ty (Corporate risk)
Ri ro th trng (Market risk)

3-42

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

Ri ro ring bit
Ton b cc ri ro ca d n nu c
tin hnh mt cch c lp.
Thng c o bng lch tiu
chun.
Cha tnh ti vic a dng ho cc d
n ca cng ty v a dng ho cc cng
ty ca cc nh u t.

3-43

Ri ro cng ty
Ri ro ca d n khi xt n vic a dng
ho d n u t ca cc cng ty.
Ri ro cng ty l mt hm ca NPV,
lch tiu chun ca d n v tng quan
thu nhp ca d n vi cc d n cn li
ang c cng ty thc hin.

3-44

Ri ro th trng
Ri ro ca d n khi nh u t thc
hin a dng ho hon ton v cng ty
thc hin a dng ho cc d n u
t.
c o lng bng h s beta ca d
n

3-45

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

c im ca ri ro d n
Ri ro th trng quan trng nht i vi nh
u t. Tuy nhin khng th b qua cc ri ro
khc v n nh hng ti nhiu ch th.
Khi ra quyt nh u t d n, cc cng ty
thng ch yu cn c vo ri ro ring bit v
ri ro ny d o lng nht.
Cc ri ro d n c tng quan cht ch vi
nhau:
Hu ht cc d n ca cng ty tp trung vo hot
ng kinh doanh chnh ca cng ty.
Hot ng ca cng ty c lin quan cht ch vi th
trng.
3-46

Phn tch nhy

(Sensitivity Analysis)
Phn tch nhy cho bit s tc ng
ca mt bin s ti NPV ca d n.
phn tch nhy, ta gi nh cc
bin s khc ngoi bin s ang xt l
khng i.

3-47

u nhc im ca phng
php phn tch nhy
u im:
Cho bit nhng bin s no c th c nh
hng ln nht ti kh nng sinh li v t
nh hng cho vic qun l.

Nhc im:
Khng phn nh c tc dng ca vic a
dng ho
Cha phn nh c nhng thng tin v mc
sai lch ca d bo.
3-48

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

Phn tch tnh hung d n trn

c s d bo v doanh thu
Gi s doanh s tiu th l bin s c
tc ng ln nht ti NPV, phn phi
xc sut ca doanh s nh sau:
Tnh hung
Xu nht
Bnh thng
Tt nht

Xc sut
0.25
0.50
0.25

Doanh s
75,000
100,000
125,000
3-49

Phn tch tnh hung

Gi s cc bin s khc khng i, NPV
ca d n trong cc tnh hung khc nhau
nh sau
Tnh hung
Xu nht
Bnh thng
Tt nht

Xc sut
0.25
0.50
0.25

NPV
($27.8)
$15.0
$57.8

3-50

Xc nh NPV k vng, NPV, and

CVNPV t phn tch tnh hung
E(NPV) = 0.25(-$27.8)+0.5($15.0)+0.25($57.8)
= $15.0
NPV = [0.25(-$27.8-$15.0)2 + 0.5($15.0$15.0)2 + 0.25($57.8-$15.0)2]1/2
= $30.3.
CVNPV = $30.3 /$15.0 = 2.0.
Nu CVNPV trung bnh ca cc d n ca cng
ty giao giao ng trong khong 1.25-1.75, c
th kt lun y l d n c ri ro cao.
3-51

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

Phn tch mi tng quan ca

d n vi cng ty, th trng
Phn tch mi tng quan thu nhp
gia d n vi cng ty (thng thng
>0).
Phn tch mi tng quan thu nhp
gia d n vi th trng (h s beta-)

3-52

Phn tch m phng Monte Carlo

(Monte Carlo simulation)
L k thut phn tch ri ro xt n s
tc ng ca nhiu bin s ti NPV ca
d n.
Cho bit mc sinh li v ri ro d tnh
ca d n.
c h tr bi cc phn mm phn
tch ri ro

3-53

Mt s nguyn nhn ri ro ch
quan ca d n
Phn tch nh lng khng th xem
xt y cc ngun ri ro ca d n.
Mt s nguyn nhn ri ro ch quan:
Vn lin quan n kin tng.
Kh nng thanh khon ti sn ca d n.
v.v

3-54

Dng Th Hng Vn

Ti chnh doanh nghip

nh gi d n trong iu kin
c ri ro
Gi s ri ro ring bit ca d n cao,
chi ph vn l 13%, NPV ca d n l $2.2.
Gi s d n c ri ro thp, chi ph vn
l 7% , NPV ca d n l $34.1

3-55

Dng Th Hng Vn